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Earth's second Cat 5 of 2012: Super Typhoon Jelawat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:05 PM GMT on September 25, 2012

Earth's newest addition to the Category 5 tropical cyclone club is Super Typhoon Jelawat, which has intensified to a Category 5 typhoon with 160 mph winds. Jelawat is Earth's second Category 5 storm of 2012; the other was Super Typhoon Sanba (175 mph winds), which hit Okinawa earlier this month as a Category 3 storm. The two Category 5 storms for 2012 match the total from all of last year. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land over the next two days. However, the storm's outer spiral bands have brought flooding to Zamboanga del Norte province in the eastern Philippines, where 8400 people were evacuated and one person is missing. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, which should allow Jelawat to maintain major typhoon status for at least two more days. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models have come into much better agreement on the track of Jelawat over the next three days. The typhoon is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. After that, there remains major uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. A northerly path towards Okinawa or a more northeasterly path out to sea are the two main possibilities. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Wednesday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.



Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Jelawat taken at 10:10 pm EDT Monday, September 24, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Miriam off the Baja coast now a Cat 2
Hurricane Miriam completed an eyewall replacement cycle this morning, which knocked down the storm to Category 2 strength with 105 mph winds. Satellite imagery shows that Miriam now has a large 35-mile diameter eye, and the storm has a more ragged appearance than when it peaked as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds on Monday. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam late this week, and our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, show Miriam dissipating before reaching central Baja on Friday.


Figure 2. Hurricane Miriam as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 5pm EDT September 24, 2012. At the time, Miriam was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Persistent Nadine still out there
The Atlantic's perpetual tropical storm, Nadine, continues to wander in the Middle Atlantic, far from any land areas. Nadine will still probably be around a week from now, and is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days. None of the reliable computer models are predicting formation of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic for the remainder of the week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doc

Repost from previous blog


And making a guest appearance... WEATHERH98

Morning guys and gals

Sorry I haven't been on lately been a bit busy with school
Thanks Dr. Masters, Jelawat is a very strong typhoon.


Morning Harrison
Quoting weatherh98:
Thanks doc

Repost from previous blog


And making a guest appearance... WEATHERH98

Morning guys and gals

Sorry I haven't been on lately been a bit busy with school
Thanks doc

Repost from previous blog


And making a guest appearance... WEATHERH98

Morning guys and gals

Sorry I haven't been on lately been a bit busy with school
Quoting wxchaser97:
Thanks Dr. Masters, Jelawat is a very strong typhoon.

Morning Harrison


How ya been eyezak?

Thanks Doc.The fronts have been stronger and more frequent.Maybe 1 or 2 more named storms in October.
Quoting weatherh98:
Thanks doc

Repost from previous blog


And making a guest appearance... WEATHERH98

Morning guys and gals

Sorry I haven't been on lately been a bit busy with school


How ya been eyezak?


You posted the same thing twice here, why?
I am doing really good, watching/forecasting the tropics has been going good.
Quoting wxchaser97:

You posted the same thing twice here, why?
I am doing really good, watching/forecasting the tropics has been going good.


Twss an accident unless my phone is messing up
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks Doc.The fronts have been stronger and more frequent.Maybe 1 or 2 more named storms in October.

They have been, bringing us some pretty cool weather. I say 1-2 more storms form before the season's end.
Thank you Dr. Incredible to see a Cat 5 like Jelawat in that Modis image with such a well defined stadium effect eye wall spanning the length of several thousand feet.

Also interesting to note the waning El Nino conditions per the Aussie Met outlook from today. Looks like Enso neutral next year for the Atlantic season.

Odds of El Niño ease, but risk remains
Issued on Tuesday 25 September | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have generally cooled over the past fortnight, easing towards neutral values (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have remained at neutral levels. Given September is the time of year when El Niño events consolidate, this recent cooling is considered somewhat unusual, hence the risk of an El Niño event remains.

Despite the shift towards neutral conditions, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. When combined with the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, conditions continue to favor below average spring rainfall over much of Australia.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values around typical El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2012.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, with weekly values of the IOD index consistently above positive thresholds for the past two months. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate the IOD will most likely remain positive throughout the remainder of spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.




Quoting wxchaser97:

They have been, bringing us some pretty cool weather. I say 1-2 more storms form before the season's end.


I got A cold front


Now it's back to low 90s everyday
Quoting wxchaser97:

They have been, bringing us some pretty cool weather. I say 1-2 more storms form before the season's end.
I've been enjoying this weather.I haven't been hearing no major complaints from anybody in this city :).
Quoting weatherh98:


I got A cold front


Now it's back to low 90s everyday

I'm getting another cold front in a couple days with temperatures going back into the 60s.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I've been enjoying this weather.I haven't been hearing no major complaints from anybody in this city :).

I like this weather and I'm not complaining at all.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm getting another cold front in a couple days with temperatures going back into the 60s.


I like this weather and I'm not complaining at all.
We hit 80 only one time this week and then it's back to the low 70's all week.
Quoting washingtonian115:
We hit 80 only one time this week and then it's back to the low 70's all week.


Oh how lucky you are
I got to go to school, bye everyone. I am in love with this cool weather an want it to stay. I think Jelawat will still be a cat5 when I get home and Miriam a cat2.
watching two areas first disturbed weather over the yucatan. the area should detach from the cold front soon it will be interesting if the area moves over the boc. the second area just north of ABCs as it moves west might move under more favorable conditions
Got some rain, thunder & lightning and very heavy winds here at 12.5N 69W. Now overcast and drizzle.
Also the local mets says:

A HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE AND CURACAO UNTIL 8 AM.

A heavy rainfall advisoryis in effect until 08:00 hours for Bonaire and Curaao. Heavy showers leading to local flooding are possible over sections of the island(s). Residents are urged to avoid driving in flooded streets until the heavy rain has tapered off or ended and the flood waters have subsided.

In case there are lightning strikes very close to your location (loud thunder, less than three seconds between lightning discharge and thunder), switch off and disconnect any sensitive electronic equipment. Also disconnect any phone line from your computer.

It is recommended to follow the latest weather developments on the weather radar on our web site through the following link: Link.
Thanks Doc.

two Pacific Cat 5's, what are the odds?
RAMMB imagery of Miriam



Quoting weatherh98:
Thanks doc

Repost from previous blog


And making a guest appearance... WEATHERH98

Morning guys and gals

Sorry I haven't been on lately been a bit busy with school

We don't care, Harry. Go to school.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank you Dr. Incredible to see a Cat 5 like Jelawat in that Modis image with such a well defined stadium effect eye wall spanning the length of several thousand feet.

Also interesting to note the waning El Nino conditions per the Aussie Met outlook from today. Looks like Enso neutral next year for the Atlantic season.

Odds of El Niño ease, but risk remains
Issued on Tuesday 25 September | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have generally cooled over the past fortnight, easing towards neutral values (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have remained at neutral levels. Given September is the time of year when El Niño events consolidate, this recent cooling is considered somewhat unusual, hence the risk of an El Niño event remains.

Despite the shift towards neutral conditions, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. When combined with the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, conditions continue to favor below average spring rainfall over much of Australia.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values around typical El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2012.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, with weekly values of the IOD index consistently above positive thresholds for the past two months. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate the IOD will most likely remain positive throughout the remainder of spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.





My forecast blog on the 2012/13 Australian Bush Fire season which highlights what a positive IOD means for Australia.
(old format)
(new format)
Feel free to have a read and leave a comment if you'd like.

Cheers
AussieStorm
Wow, the gales in Scotland have driven sea foam into Aberdeen beach. It looks quite extraordinary!

Sea foam covered cars and buildings at Aberdeen beach

The winds are not so strong down here in Wales but the heavy rain has been continuing for 43 hours and counting...
22. AussieStorm 9:04 AM EDT on September 25, 2012

Thanks AS. Goes to show that there are two sides of every coin and drier conditions associated with the positive IOD will cause an increased threat of bush fires for your parts.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Thanks Doc.

two Pacific Cat 5's, what are the odds?

Last year also had 2 Cat 5's
Songda and Muifa

1997 had 3 in a row
Super Typhoon IVAN
Super Typhoon JOAN
Super Typhoon KEITH
in fact 1997 had 10 Cat 5 Super Typhoons
Good morning folks,a lil cooler here in the mornings, feels great!!............
Quoting taistelutipu:
Wow, the gales in Scotland have driven sea foam into Aberdeen beach. It looks quite extraordinary!

Sea foam covered cars and buildings at Aberdeen beach

The winds are not so strong down here in Wales but the heavy rain has been continuing for 43 hours and counting...
Good morning all. Thanks for the article. It is always interesting to see weather in other parts of the world. It shows that we are all in this together. When I lived in Scotland in 1976-1977 I thought it was wet. Rained everyday except for two weeks in summer. And the rain fell sideways!LOL It takes a lot to upset the Scots when it comes to weather. I imagine they are having a lot of tourist complaints concerning the closing of the historical sites. But I can't blame the authorities. I imagine the water and wind could cause some structural failures at the auld sites:) Have a good day everyone.
Thank you Dr. Masters
Gmorning all, does anyone think Miriam will make it to the BOC or go more N and help out with the wild fires???
wish i could find a legit sat of nadine...
Quoting Msdrown:
Gmorning all, does anyone think Miriam will make it to the BOC or go more N and help out with the wild fires???


Shes supposed to go, into arizona or new mexico and bring us some rain.
Quoting Dragod66:
wish i could find a legit sat of nadine...


This is the latest available on the Navy site ... very poor quality ...

Quoting Dragod66:
wish i could find a legit sat of nadine...


Ask, and ye shall receive. Looking rather sub-tropical this morning.
it looks as though nadine will last forever lol
Quoting Dragod66:
wish i could find a legit sat of nadine...
Don't know how "legit" you want it, but here are a pair (IR and visible):

Nadine

Nadine
Quoting LargoFl:
Good morning folks,a lil cooler here in the mornings, feels great!!............
Sure does! I recorded a low of 65 this morning :)
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all. Thanks for the article. It is always interesting to see weather in other parts of the world. It shows that we are all in this together. When I lived in Scotland in 1976-1977 I thought it was wet. Rained everyday except for two weeks in summer. And the rain fell sideways!LOL It takes a lot to upset the Scots when it comes to weather. I imagine they are having a lot of tourist complaints concerning the closing of the historical sites. But I can't blame the authorities. I imagine the water and wind could cause some structural failures at the auld sites:) Have a good day everyone.


We kind of are used to ex tropical storms round these parts but it is really rough couple of days here where I am , it is sustained at 45 miles an hr and Gusting 60 miles an hour . But I believe tonight and tomorrow will hit my area the worst as the spawn of Nadine moves like her mother west

latest BBC News link its a safe link

Link

I wonder if Nadine will make a run for the longest-lived Atlantic storm?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Last year also had 2 Cat 5's
Songda and Muifa

1997 had 3 in a row
Super Typhoon IVAN
Super Typhoon JOAN
Super Typhoon KEITH
in fact 1997 had 10 Cat 5 Super Typhoons


1997 was 29-24-11 and an ACE of 594.11 for them, imagine that in the Atlantic!

Humidity: is 49% in WPB = !!!:)
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC's 25Sept12pm ATCF data for TropicalStormNadine
25Sept12am: TS.Nadine had been headed 308.2*NWest@7.1mph(12km/h)
25Sept06am: TS.Nadine had been headed 270.2* West @ 7.5mph(11km/h)
25Sept12pm: TS.Nadine had been headed 235.0*SWest@6.0mph(9.6km/h)

YPS-PortHawkesbury :: YYT-St.John's :: CVU-Corvo

The top dot on the kinked lines is the northernmost position reached by Nadine
The 5 kinked lines trace Nadine's path on its 9th thru 13th days since becoming a NamedStorm
The southwesternmost dot on the 2 connected straight lines is Nadine's most recent position
Virtually no rain in the N Leewards in september, well that's all good. I hate this year from the bottom of my heart.
Imagine if this were in the Gulf of Mexico...



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Imagine if this were in the Gulf of Mexico...





It would not fit....lol
Jelawat the Juggernaut.

can they expand the image a little to the west???? just a bit to see the whole storm...
and how do you say that name..Jelawat. Is there a special pronunciation?
So far today

Time (EDT): Temp.: Dew Point: Humidity: Sea Level Pressure: Visibility: Wind Dir: Wind Speed: Gust Speed: Precip: Events: Conditions:
12:53 AM 75.0 °F 70.0 °F 84% 30.02 in 10.0 miles NW 4.6 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
1:53 AM 75.9 °F 70.0 °F 82% 30.01 in 10.0 miles Calm Calm - N/A Mostly Cloudy
2:53 AM 75.9 °F 71.1 °F 85% 30.00 in 10.0 miles NNW 3.5 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
3:53 AM 75.9 °F 71.1 °F 85% 30.00 in 10.0 miles North 3.5 mph - N/A Overcast
4:53 AM 75.0 °F 71.1 °F 87% 29.99 in 10.0 miles NNW 4.6 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
5:53 AM 75.0 °F 71.1 °F 87% 30.00 in 10.0 miles Calm Calm - N/A Mostly Cloudy
6:53 AM 75.9 °F 72.0 °F 87% 30.01 in 10.0 miles NNW 3.5 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
7:53 AM 77.0 °F 72.0 °F 84% 30.03 in 10.0 miles North 3.5 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
8:53 AM 78.1 °F 71.1 °F 79% 30.04 in 10.0 miles North 3.5 mph - N/A Overcast
9:53 AM 81.0 °F 72.0 °F 74% 30.06 in 10.0 miles North 4.6 mph - N/A Overcast
Nadine Advisory 52...and counting.
At least 72 advisories are possible if it lasts for 5 days like the NHC is forecasting.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
can they expand the image a little to the west???? just a bit to see the whole storm...
and how do you say that name..Jelawat. Is there a special pronunciation?

It's gel-ar-watt.

The r is silent.
blog2240page9comment410 AussieStorm: Typhoon Bolaven rains fish on Russian beach

IT was a case of seafood and eat it in Russia. A delicious feast of oysters, molluscs, crabs and fresh fish rained down on Lazurnaya Bay in the country's far east.

The seafood BBQ enjoyed by locals was the result of Typhoon Bolaven. The storm caused chaos as it tracked over Russia, halting the Trans Siberia Railway, stopping ferry services and causing black outs.

Local girl Svetlana took these amazing images of the seafood beach for her blog. "I live here for more than 20 years, but I've never seen anything like this. Now we know what 'manna from heaven' means."

The day of the seafood feast will be talked about for years in this part of Russia.
48 advisories (12 days), then we might be looking at three digits, for the first time in years. By the way, the longest lived hurricane in the Atlantic is Hurricane San Ciriaco, of 1899(?), lasting 28 days.
Is the lack of tropical systems due to el nino; why the lull?
Lull?Season is over.
No major hurricane ,cat 3 or above have hit United States in 7 years!A record #1!
Is it okay seeing the blog is rather quiet to post a couple of Images as I am a newbie and would like the practice? TIA

Miriam


Funktop




Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


It would not fit....lol

Actually it would.
The GOM is North(Mississippi Delta) -> South(Cancun) = 529miles
East(Tuxpan, MX) -> West(Marco Island, Florida) = 1049miles.

Super Typhoon Jelawat Size is (in Diameter): 450 nm(517miles)
Quoting biff4ugo:
Thanks Doc.

two Pacific Cat 5's, what are the odds?
5/2
Quoting Gatorstorm:
Is the lack of tropical systems due to el nino; why the lull?


There isn't a lack... it's just focused in areas where the MJO is present --> The Western pacific. Activity will pick up when the MJO is back in the Atlantic.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
5/2


LOL... Cos who you making Favorite for the Ryder cup?


Anyways Jelawat in Rainbow

What is that Aussie?
This is Nadine's official motto and no one better steal it."Nadine.The lost child of the Atlantic".
Cutting-Edge Technology Makes NASA's Hurricane Mission a Reality

Cutting-edge NASA technology has made this year's NASA Hurricane mission a reality. NASA and other scientists are currently flying a suite of state-of-the-art, autonomously operated instruments that are gathering difficult-to-obtain measurements of wind speeds, precipitation, and cloud structures in and around tropical storms.

"Making these measurements possible is the platform on which the instruments are flying," said Paul Newman, the deputy principal investigator of NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3), managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. HS3 will use NASA's unmanned Global Hawks, which are capable of flying at altitudes greater than 60,000 feet with flight durations of up to 28 hours — capabilities that increase the amount of data scientists can collect. "It's a brand-new way to do science," Newman said.

The month-long HS3 mission, which began in early September, is actually a more robust follow-on to NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment that scientists executed in 2010. Often referred to as "GRIP on steroids," HS3 is currently deploying one instrument-laden Global Hawk from the NASA Wallops Flight Facility on Virginia's Eastern Shore to look at the environment of tropical storms. In 2013 and 2014, a second Global Hawk will be added that will focus on getting detailed measurements of the inner core of hurricanes.

Without this new aircraft, developed originally for the U.S. Air Force to gather intelligence and surveillance data, the team says the mission wouldn't be possible.

The Global Hawk's ability to fly for a much longer period of time than manned aircraft will allow it to obtain previously difficult-to-get data. Scientists hope to use that data to gain new insights into how tropical storms form, and more importantly, how they intensify into major Atlantic hurricanes — information that forecasters need to make better storm predictions, save lives, and ultimately prevent costly coastal evacuations if a storm doesn't warrant them.

"Because you can get to Africa from Wallops, we'll be able to study developing systems way out into the Atlantic," Newman explained. "Normal planes, which can fly for no more than about 10 hours, often miss the points where storms intensify," added Gerry Heymsfield, a Goddard scientist who used NASA Research and Development funding to create one of the mission's six instruments, the High-altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP). "With the Global Hawks, we have a much higher chance of capturing these events. Furthermore, we can sit on targets for a long time."

Just as important as the aircraft are the new or enhanced instruments designed to gather critical wind, temperature, humidity, and aerosol measurements in the environment surrounding the storm and the rain and wind patterns occurring inside their inner cores, they added. "The instruments bring it all together," Newman said. "We didn't have these instruments 10 years ago."

The Global Hawk currently on deployment at Wallops is known as the "environmental" aircraft because it samples the environment in which hurricanes are embedded. It carries three instruments.

A Goddard-provided laser system called the Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) is located in the nose. CPL measures cloud structures and aerosols, such as dust, sea salt particles, and smoke particles, by bouncing laser light off these elements. An infrared instrument called the Scanning High-resolution Interferometer Sounder (S-HIS), provided by the University of Wisconsin in Madison, sits in the belly of the aircraft. It measures the vertical profile of temperature and water vapor.

At the tail end is a dropsonde system provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This system consists of 88 paper-towel-roll-sized tubes that are ejected much like a soda can in a vending machine. As the sensor drops, a parachute slows its descent, allowing the sensor to drift down through the storm while measuring winds, temperature, pressure, and humidity.

In 2013 and 2014, working in tandem with its environmental counterpart, will be a second Global Hawk, known as the "over-storm" aircraft. It will sample the internal structure of hurricanes. It, too, will carry three instruments.

Heymsfield's HIWRAP, for example, will be situated in the belly of the Global Hawk and will be responsible for sampling the cores of hurricanes. Similar to a ground radar system, but pointed downward, HIWRAP measures rain structure and winds, providing a three-dimensional view of these conditions.

Also onboard this craft will be a microwave system called the High-Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR), created by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. Located in the aircraft's nose, this instrument uses microwave wavelengths to measure temperature, water vapor, and precipitation from the top of the storm to the surface.

At the other end of the aircraft in the tail section will be the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) provided by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. This microwave instrument measures surface wind speeds and rain rates in an unusual way. It collects this data by measuring the amount of "foaminess" in ocean waters. According to Newman, the amount of foaminess is proportional to wind speeds at the surface.

Although all six instruments measure different conditions, they share one important characteristic: all operate autonomously and deliver data to scientists in real-time — another scientific advance. In the past, aircraft instruments, which often required the presence of a scientist to operate them, would record captured data. Only after the aircraft landed could scientists begin evaluating what they had collected.

With the Global Hawk, however, the data are transmitted to the ground in real-time. Should conditions warrant, the science team can direct the pilot, who flies the aircraft from a computer console on the ground, to change course or tweak the pre-programmed flight path in some way to maximize or improve the data they are gathering. "With the Global Hawk and these instruments, we can make better decisions," Heymsfield added.

The five-year mission will continue through 2014, at which time the team hopes to have dramatically improved their understanding of how storms intensify. "The insights we get will benefit forecasters," Newman said. "What we hope to do is take this technique and make it part of the operational forecast infrastructure."

The HS3 mission is supported by several NASA facilities including Wallops, Goddard, NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, Calif.; Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala.; and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. In addition, the mission also involves collaborations with various partners from government agencies and academia.

HS3 is an Earth Venture mission funded by NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. Earth Venture missions are managed by NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder Program at NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va. The HS3 Project itself is managed by the Earth Science Project Office at NASA's Ames Research Center.

For more information about the NASA GRIP mission, visit:
www.nasa.gov/grip


Robert Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.


The High Altitude Monolithic Microwave integrated Circuit (MMIC) Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) is a microwave atmospheric sounder developed by JPL under the NASA Instrument Incubator Program. Credit: NASA JPL




Photo of the new purple CPL with the Global Hawk. Credit: NASA
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What is that Aussie?

What is what mate??
Which comment?
Quoting Thrawst:


There isn't a lack... it's just focused in areas where the MJO is present --> The Western pacific. Activity will pick up when the MJO is back in the Atlantic.
Same thing happened in July. Atlantic was dead, while the Pacific was hyperactive. Activity picked back up in August.
I guess the earth's radiator will kick in, at some point.

Quoting VR46L:


LOL... Cos who you making Favorite for the Ryder cup?


Anyways Jelawat in Rainbow

USA...1/2, Europe 3/2, Tie 10/1....and the weather in Chicago area looking very nice for this weekend. Odds of a tornado causing course evacuation...850/1
Quoting Thing342:
Same thing happened in July. Atlantic was dead, while the Pacific was hyperactive. Activity picked back up in August.
Did you see how high shear was in the "breeding" grounds?.If that shear doesn't calm down ain't nothing forming anytime soon even if the MJO is present.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Imagine if this were in the Gulf of Mexico...




It would be the end of the gulf coast for a while. I'm pretty sure we won't see something like that the rest of the year, at least in the Atlantic.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
USA...1/2, Europe 3/2, Tie 10/1....and the weather in Chicago area looking very nice for this weekend. Odds of a tornado causing course evacuation...850/1


LOL Cosmic


Anyway Miriam in rainbow





Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


hi keeper...lovely world
Jelawat's eyewall isn't as impressive as yesterday.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Did you see how high shear was in the "breeding" grounds?.If that shear doesn't calm down ain't nothing forming anytime soon even if the MJO is present.

I still think we will see 1-2 more storms beofre the season ends, one upper lattitude and one Caribbean.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What is that Aussie?


Unusual sea foam being driven on shore in Scotland by winds from Nadine's baby, Karin. No idea about the chemistry of it.

The system has moved a little, bringing some respite to the UK, but it'll be back in a day or two. Something else that's unusual.

The TV news has been full of flood stories. Some places have had 4" with another 2" to come before the day's out.
Quoting wxchaser97:

It would be the end of the gulf coast for a while. I'm pretty sure we won't see something like that the rest of the year, at least in the Atlantic.
Aren't you suppose to be in school young man?.J/K but I hope we get to track some beautiful majors next year like Bertha,Igor,Danielle,Earl,Katia and so on.The storms this year have been lacking.Micheal was a nice one to track.The storms sure weren't easy to track this year.
Quoting atris:
Is it okay seeing the blog is rather quiet to post a couple of Images as I am a newbie and would like the practice? TIA

Miriam


Funktop






You don't need permission. Your on topic lol.;)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Aren't you suppose to be in school young man?.J/K but I hope we get to track some beautiful majors next year like Bertha,Igor,Danielle,Earl,Katia and so on.The storms this year have been lacking.Micheal was a nice one to track.The storms sure weren't easy to track this year.

I am in school, it's lunch time. I would like some majors, something better than this but going out to sea.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I am in school, it's lunch time. I would like some majors, something better than this but going out to sea.
Yes.If you noticed the ones I listed were majors out to sea or were at their strongest while out to sea before they affected land.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.If you noticed the ones I listed were majors out to sea or were at their strongest while out to sea before they affected land.

Yeah I did, I got to go back to class.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Virtually no rain in the N Leewards in september, well that's all good. I hate this year from the bottom of my heart.

Compared to a couple of cat 4's tearing up the islands, you're not doing too badly. I'll take an annoyance, like not enough rain, versus a disaster any day.
blog2240page9comment417 VR46L: Personally I would rather see a good Meme or a Good one liner than lines of poetry mocking people who have difficulty spelling, but that's just me.

The poem mocks spellchecks -- ie computer programs -- not people who have problems with spelling (virtually everyone who writes in English, which sucks at matching letters with sounds).
eg In the WU comments section, 'definitely' is so often misspelled 'defiantly' -- probably originated as a spellcheck auto-correct of "definately" -- that it's a joke-meme. ie Even people who know how to spell the word use the wrong word in its stead.
Quoting weatherbro:


You don't need permission. Your on topic lol.;)


LOL ... Thank you !!!
Quoting yonzabam:


Unusual sea foam being driven on shore in Scotland by winds from Nadine's baby, Karin. No idea about the chemistry of it.

The system has moved a little, bringing some respite to the UK, but it'll be back in a day or two. Something else that's unusual.

The TV news has been full of flood stories. Some places have had 4" with another 2" to come before the day's out.


Huge algae blooms in the north Atlantic and Arctic Ocean this year are probably the cause of the foam, as the dead algae decays.
Its been pouring all day in Daytona; looking at satellite it wouldn't appear the rain is coming from the east.
Can someone explain "Karin" to me...? Is it extra trop? Why is it a "k" named storm?

I've been lurking and learning on this blog for 4 years, and it seems I learn something new everyday.

Thanks to all you meteo saavy guys (and gals).

Quoting AussieStorm:

Actually it would.
The GOM is North(Mississippi Delta) -> South(Cancun) = 529miles
East(Tuxpan, MX) -> West(Marco Island, Florida) = 1049miles.

Super Typhoon Jelawat Size is (in Diameter): 450 nm(517miles)


could GOM support such enormous storm??
These images are from BBC article about Scottland sea foam today. I've been posting satellite images of the algae blooms in the North Atlantic for months.


Quoting aspectre:
blog2240page9comment417 VR46L: Personally I would rather see a good Meme or a Good one liner than lines of poetry mocking people who have difficulty spelling, but that's just me.

The poem mocks spellchecks -- ie computer programs -- not people who have problems with spelling (virtually everyone who writes in English, which sucks at matching letters with sounds).
eg In the WU comments section, 'definitely' is so often misspelled 'defiantly' -- probably originated as a spellcheck auto-correct of "definately" -- that it's a joke-meme. ie Even people who know how to spell the word use the wrong word in its stead.


Sorry , Its a touchy subject for me and if you happen to be using IE which I don't and am as bad a speller as I am, mistakes happen . And sometimes the spell checker does not even come close to the word I am trying to spell.
Huh?

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Quoting tedauxie:
Can someone explain "Karin" to me...? Is it extra trop? Why is it a "k" named storm?

I've been lurking and learning on this blog for 4 years, and it seems I learn something new everyday.

Thanks to all you meteo saavy guys (and gals).


They are names given to high and low pressure systems that affect the UK and Europe. The whole process of how this is done is a little weird. People get to name storms after themselves, based on some kind of lottery system. Karin is based on a real person, Karin Erlebach, who got her name selected in this process.

Adopt a Vortex
Quoting tedauxie:
Can someone explain "Karin" to me...? Is it extra trop? Why is it a "k" named storm?

I've been lurking and learning on this blog for 4 years, and it seems I learn something new everyday.

Thanks to all you meteo saavy guys (and gals).



European storms are named by the free University in Berlin they Charge a fee for people to have areas of low and high pressure naded after them

An explanation to Karin She was formed when Nadine split from her convection last week and formed a new storm that was named Karin she has all the charasteristics of an EX tropical storm here is a wiki link

Link
Quoting VR46L:


European storms are named by by the free University in Berlin they Charge a fee for people to have areas of low and high pressure maded after them

an explanation to Karin She was formed when Nadine split from her convection last week and formed a new storm that was named Karin she has all the charasteristics of an EX tropical storm here is a wiki link

Link


Much thanks.
TROPICAL UPDATE
____________________________

100. VR46L
Quoting tedauxie:


Much thanks.


Your Welcome :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Huh?

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what????
Quoting sar2401:

They are names given to high and low pressure systems that affect the UK and Europe. The whole process of how this is done is a little weird. People get to name storms after themselves, based on some kind of lottery system. Karin is based on a real person, Karin Erlebach, who got her name selected in this process.

Adopt a Vortex
That is really interesting. People pay for this. Maybe we need to do the same here in the USA and keep the money for the weather satelittes. I was trying to find out how much they charge but couldn't see it in the quick scan I gave it. I figured there had to be money involved. Imagine if it were the first one to spot the vortex? How many on this site alone would be calling first and requiring their name on the low. LOL Talk about fighting then!
Just in case you were wondering how Pacific typhoons are named, and what the names mean, you can find out more at the Japanese Meteorological Agency site. Not all nations in the Pacfic basin have agreed to use these names. Since they are contributed by 13 countries that are affected by typhoons, politics plays a role. The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (North Korea), for example, won't use any of the names contributed by the Japanese and dreams up its own name for such storms. The Chinese get three sets names to pick by using Hong Kong and Macau as separate "countries", while the USA gets one set. It seems like Able, Baker, Charlie....et al really weren't a bad idea considering the current rather complex system.
looks like the east coast will have one or multiple low pressures trying to develop

JMA


12z CMC


12z GFS
Sometimes they auction letters on ebay, if they are not taken in the regular allocation process. Then you may get a good bargain, being allowed to name a system that will figure on European weathermaps for a couple of euros.

The money raised goes towards the maintenance of the weather station of the FU Berlin and also to the volunteering students who man the station usually without getting paid.
110. VR46L
Quoting kwgirl:
That is really interesting. People pay for this. Maybe we need to do the same here in the USA and keep the money for the weather satelittes. I was trying to find out how much they charge but couldn't see it in the quick scan I gave it. I figured there had to be money involved. Imagine if it were the first one to spot the vortex? How many on this site alone would be calling first and requiring their name on the low. LOL Talk about fighting then!


The fee charged is in this link

Link

Its used for research purposes for the University
Going around in circles.........................TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1500 UTC TUE SEP 25 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 30.0W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 70SE 100SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 30.0W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 29.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.2N 30.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.4N 30.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.5N 30.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.6N 31.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.6N 32.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 100SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 30.0N 33.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 32.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 30.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

GFS at 96 hours.......
yep something going up the east coast in 96 hours.......


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Home
The next auctions will be on female names beginning with Q, X or Y as these letters are still unallocated.

Follow this link and keep an eye on it, the start of the ebay auctions is usually announced there.

In the current analysis, Nadine is churning in the Southwestern corner of the map, Karin and Jenny are located over NW- and NE- Europe.

FU Berlin keeps the names of tropical systems and does not assign them the next name on the list. If they did, Nadine would be known in Europe as Luna.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Huh?

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There is a spin there however, zilch in convection. Wonder if that is a test or something?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I keep going to radar watching that blob to the west of Key West. I appears to be moving North, not east, so I think it will miss this little key.



This from 09:45 GMT
Quoting VR46L:


The fee charged is in this link

Link

Its used for research purposes for the University
That's a lot of money to have your name on a storm. With the way Atlantic storms destroy homes and lives, I wouldn't want my name on one!
Quoting kwgirl:
That is really interesting. People pay for this. Maybe we need to do the same here in the USA and keep the money for the weather satelittes. I was trying to find out how much they charge but couldn't see it in the quick scan I gave it. I figured there had to be money involved. Imagine if it were the first one to spot the vortex? How many on this site alone would be calling first and requiring their name on the low. LOL Talk about fighting then!
i nominate JFV
122. VR46L
Quoting kwgirl:
That's a lot of money to have your name on a storm. With the way Atlantic storms destroy homes and lives, I wouldn't want my name on one!


I guess they are cashing in on the modern idea of wanting and seeking fame .. like on a reality T.V show .. most people want their 15 minutes of fame in the world we live in .. which is pretty sad in my opinion ...
123. VR46L
Quoting floridaT:
i nominate JFV


LOL
With Nadine's potential lifespan extending far out to an unknown time in the future, it is a good time to remember 2002 Hurricane Kyle.



The first NHC advisory discussion for Kyle starts with the following:

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW THAT FORMED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION...A SIGN OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AT UPPER LEVELS. ON THE OTHER HAND...A TRMM OVERPASS AT 1601Z INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 100 N MI FROM THE CENTER...WHICH IS RATHER UNLIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THUS UPGRADED TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION INSTEAD OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.



The 89th advisory discussion was issued: "11 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002...KYLE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...LAST ADVISORY..."

According to the Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary September 2002

"The extratropical Kyle was tracked across the Atlantic, executing its third anticyclonic loop on 14 October, then heading east-southeastward and southeastward. On the 17th Kyle's remnants turned east-northeastward and passed just north of the Azores Island of Faial. The island reported 30-kt winds and dew points of 20 C as the LOW approached. There was a notable wind shift associated with this system, signifying the presence of fronts. Kyle finally ended its long, long trek on 18 October as it was absorbed into an extratropical LOW centred to its northwest. The merger of this LOW with the remnants of Kyle resulted in a large, deep LOW which moved northeastward to affect the British Isles during 20-23 October. "

I remember locally, Kyle was like a surfer's dream.
From FNMOC site...

Atlantic

95L.INVEST
14L.NADINE
116) Has the inland blob gone far enough to be a derecho? Sure has kept its round shape for the most part. Came through C IL around 6, 7 this a.m.

About to get hit by the tail line behind it, it's been rumbling at us the last 45 min, but since it's north and mainly moving west to east as well, still slightly north of us. But it is dropping south ever so slightly, and getting redder on radar.
Great TV news video here showing the damage and flooding from Karin, and a Scottish village covered in a foot of strange foam from the sea.


Link
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
153 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

PRC011-083-097-117-252045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0354.120925T1753Z-120925T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
153 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LAS MARIAS...RINCON AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 149 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUICK RISES IN SMALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1824 6694 1819 6704 1816 6713 1819 6717
1821 6717 1823 6718 1828 6720 1829 6724
1833 6725

$$

JJA
131. VR46L
Quoting yonzabam:
Great TV news video here showing the damage and flooding from Karin, and a Scottish village covered in a foot of strange foam from the sea.


Link


and another 24-36 hrs of it to go

Florida's next frontal passage won't be till next week as a southern streamer appears poised to sweep a front through mid-week. this front was short and sweet. But the next one looks to last a few more days as the flow should not veer.

But the first weekend of October and beyond promises to bring much cooler drier air into Central and South Florida!
Quoting yonzabam:
Great TV news video here showing the damage and flooding from Karin, and a Scottish village covered in a foot of strange foam from the sea.
It just takes a steady gale to whip up a lot of sea foam, maybe a plankton bloom helps out. I have been on the beach when a winter storm was hanging stationary offshore and the foam was above my knees...not nearly as much as in those pictures but I imagine in the North Atlantic conditions are a lot more favorable for an occasional foam storm.
134. wxmod
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


There is a spin there however, zilch in convection. Wonder if that is a test or something?
Good afternoon. I saw 95L on the Navy site and was wondering what they see.
Quoting dabirds:
116) Has the inland blob gone far enough to be a derecho? Sure has kept its round shape for the most part. Came through C IL around 6, 7 this a.m.

About to get hit by the tail line behind it, it's been rumbling at us the last 45 min, but since it's north and mainly moving west to east as well, still slightly north of us. But it is dropping south ever so slightly, and getting redder on radar.


A derecho has to be severe weather not just a MCS which is an area of thunderstorms moving across the area
Well, just popped out to look at what's coming, not nearly as dark overhead as when north of us. Didn't see any lightning, so must be cloud to cloud way up. No rain either. As red as it appeared on radar, expected more from it. Can feel cooler breeze coming with it, Spfld, IL was at 67, we showed 75, and StL is 80. Expect folks east and south of us may need to keep an eye on this, all that rumbling has to mean something is building.
"By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho."

Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center
140. MTWX
Quoting dabirds:
Well, just popped out to look at what's coming, not nearly as dark overhead as when north of us. Didn't see any lightning, so must be cloud to cloud way up. No rain either. As red as it appeared on radar, expected more from it. Can feel cooler breeze coming with it, Spfld, IL was at 67, we showed 75, and StL is 80. Expect folks east and south of us may need to keep an eye on this, all that rumbling has to mean something is building.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251759Z - 251900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MO AS OF 17Z. EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...A WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE MS RIVER
WHILE THE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECAY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL. SOUTH OF ONGOING /CURRENTLY
ELEVATED/ SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 IN MO/SOUTH-CENTRAL
IL...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY /SINCE 1630Z/ IS INDICATIVE OF
AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MO WHERE AMPLE INSOLATION OTHERWISE
CONTINUES TO OCCUR. BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS AND
MODEL-BASED SOUNDINGS...THIS IS WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
CONTINUES TO STEADILY ERODE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH/EXCEED
80 F THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J PER KG/...AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE/SPEED
MAX...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS STORMS MATURE...MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS /40 KT 0-6 KM PER RECENT ST LOUIS WSR-88D VWP/
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
THE WARM FRONT.
Here is a short BBC Video of another UK heavy sea-foam event from last winter.
Quoting taistelutipu:
FU Berlin keeps the names of tropical systems and does not assign them the next name on the list. If they did, Nadine would be known in Europe as Luna.


I don't know if the links provided earlier did contain the following trivia.

1) Naming of lows and highs was proposed in 1951 or 2 by Karla Wege, a then-student of meteorology who later became one of the three weather forecasters of German national public broadcaster Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen (ZDF). Wege's proposal was somehow pushed on by the beginning of naming hurricanes in the U.S.

2) Those names did not appeared on weather forecast maps prominently through the first decades. I did notice then for the first time somewhen in the 1980 I guess. Using by the press started about 1990 when some infamous winter storms did damage. Until then storms "inherited" a name of a ship tragedy mostly if any or for the are they affected. "Orkan Quimburga" formerly was widespread known as "Niedersachsenorkan" (Orkan = storm with hurricane force winds). Wikipedia has a list of those kind of wind storms, see here.

3) However those names came into use in France, Austria, Switzerland and some of neighbouring countries firstly with infamous Lothar in 1999. The names won't be used regularily in forecasts by, say, Meteo-France, but widespread use of the names in the press has led them using those names in case of severe events. With Xynthia the TU Berlin name was used for example by meteorological services from Portugal through Spain, France, Switzerland, Austria into Germany and Poland. However until now I never observed the british Press or the MetOffice use those names.

4) Norway has its own naming system for storms affecting that country. For example "Per" was their name for the system named "Hanno" by the TU Berlin.
143. flsky
Quoting wxmod:


Little info about this would be nice....
Thanks thunder (edit: & Mr. Mixon, MTWX), we had some weather, but hadn't seen any severe reports on here from points east, but wasn't sure if it had done anything worse. Was moving at a pretty good clip, so thought it might.

We did finally get a brief shower from that trailing line - nothing like thought it might be from rumbles and radar.
145. VR46L
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good afternoon. I saw 95L on the Navy site and was wondering what they see.


I dont know seems like alot of little swirls to me

Wonder if they meant 13N?

That is what I thought is was for.
There's an invest in here somewhere.

Last good vis of the day:

now this is funny


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

...PESKY NADINE FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD..


LOL
ummmmm y do i see an invest 95L with no circle on the nhc site???
Quoting kwgirl:
That is really interesting. People pay for this. Maybe we need to do the same here in the USA and keep the money for the weather satelittes. I was trying to find out how much they charge but couldn't see it in the quick scan I gave it. I figured there had to be money involved. Imagine if it were the first one to spot the vortex? How many on this site alone would be calling first and requiring their name on the low. LOL Talk about fighting then!


This has some real possiblities if we work it right in the USA. Let's offer commercial sponsorships, like we do for football and baseball stadiums. Companies that want to improve their image would pay big money to get a nice high pressure system named after them. Imagine "This fine weather is being bought to you courtesy of high pressure system Exxon". Low pressure systems might be a harder sell, but there might be companies that would want a more destructive storm named after them. "Storm Allstate is responsible for ripping the roof off your house. How's you insurance coverage?". Or, "Storm Home Depot knocked over a lot of fences today".

We could even offer corporate sponsorships for HH aircraft. Imagine "Hurricane Hunter United Ailines is scheduled to fly today.". The Global Hawk could bring some big money from a multinational corporation. "Global Hawk General Electric is currently investigating storm Lowes Home Improvement Centers". We could even have local NWS offices named after corporate sponsors. The Duluth office could be renamed the Campbells Chicken Soup Office. The Las Vegas Office could be renamed something like the Steve Wynn Office. I think we could almost completely fund the NOAA and the NWS from people and corporations who want their names on the hundreds of low and high pressure systems that affect te USA every year. We just have to think out of the box on this.

You'll have to excuse me now...I'm starting to feel a little nauseous. :)
Quoting Matthias1967:


2) Those names did not appeared on weather forecast maps prominently through the first decades. I did notice then for the first time somewhen in the 1980 I guess. Using by the press started about 1990 when some infamous winter storms did damage. Until then storms "inherited" a name of a ship tragedy mostly if any or for the are they affected. "Orkan Quimburga" formerly was widespread known as "Niedersachsenorkan" (Orkan = storm with hurricane force winds). Wikipedia has a list of those kind of wind storms, see here.

3) However those names came into use in France, Austria, Switzerland and some of neighbouring countries firstly with infamous Lothar in 1999. The names won't be used regularily in forecasts by, say, Meteo-France, but widespread use of the names in the press has led them using those names in case of severe events. With Xynthia the TU Berlin name was used for example by meteorological services from Portugal through Spain, France, Switzerland, Austria into Germany and Poland. However until now I never observed the british Press or the MetOffice use those names.

4) Norway has its own naming system for storms affecting that country. For example "Per" was their name for the system named "Hanno" by the TU Berlin.


I still remember Daria, Vivian and Wiebke, which happened all in 1990, as I lived in Germany at that time. What a crazy year! The damage in the forests in South Germany was enormous. 86 million m³ of wood went down, 75 million m³ of that in Germany. I remember a walk in a nearby forest a couple of months after the storms when the trails had been cleared. There were piles of downed trees and some still lying around in disarray. This is how it looked like after Wiebke:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
There's an invest in here somewhere.


At least 93L was an offcial Grothar blob, even though it had no chance to develop into a tropical anything. Apparently, even a blob isn't needed now, just a few semi-rotating clouds. :)
If this is right,then the Caribbean/West Atlantic will not have Tropical Development at least thru the 9th of October.



Link
156. wxmod
Quoting flsky:


Little info about this would be nice....


I always get in trouble for including info.
I'm back from school, Miriam is fading away and Jelawat is still strong. I see there is a new invest but I don't really know why. Also I, thankfully, don't have school tomorrow.
Quoting wxmod:


I always get in trouble for including info.

You wouldn't if the information was actually accurate, lol.
I can only think of one reason there was an "invest" declared. Clearly, the NHC meteorologists were locked out and they have brought in replacement meteorologists.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

PRC043-055-059-075-111-113-121-123-133-149-153-25 2045-
COAMO PR-GUANICA PR-GUAYANILLA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-
SABANA GRANDE PR-SALINAS PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-VILLALBA PR-YAUCO PR-
343 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

AT 335 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SANTA ISABEL...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. THIS
THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS PONCE...PENUELAS AND GUAYANILLA.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

Quoting DookiePBC:
I can only think of one reason there was an "invest" declared. Clearly, the NHC meteorologists were locked out and they have brought in replacement meteorologists.

If that's the case then I want the regular meteorologists back, just like I want the regular refs back.
162. VR46L
Quoting DookiePBC:
I can only think of one reason there was an "invest" declared. Clearly, the NHC meteorologists were locked out and they have brought in replacement meteorologists.


That is just really funny ... LOL
Quoting DookiePBC:
I can only think of one reason there was an "invest" declared. Clearly, the NHC meteorologists were locked out and they have brought in replacement meteorologists.


If that really happened, we'd be gone if something big popped up.
164. wxmod
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You wouldn't if the information was actually accurate, lol.


The info I post IS accurate.
Quoting VR46L:


I dont know seems like alot of little swirls to me


What is going on. I see NOTHING!!!!
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Wonder if they meant 13N?

That is what I thought is was for.
That would make a lot more sense than 23N because then it would be in the mess of convection in the Caribbean.
Quoting wxmod:


The info I post IS accurate.

Some people disagree with that statement, like me;)
168. VR46L
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

What is going on. I see NOTHING!!!!


No Idea !! but the Navy and Tropical atlantic are showing it .. there is even spag models up ...

Quoting DookiePBC:
I can only think of one reason there was an "invest" declared. Clearly, the NHC meteorologists were locked out and they have brought in replacement meteorologists.


Brilliant!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Imagine if this were in the Gulf of Mexico...




Well.... that would be BAD
The recent GOES 13 outage must have the models seeing invisible men.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If this is right,then the Caribbean/West Atlantic will not have Tropical Development at least thru the 9th of October.



Link
it might form in the pacific and move north into the caribbean.
Jelawat remains as a 140kt Cat 5 as of the latest advisory. It should make a direct hit on or very near pass of Okinawa as a significantly weakened system in a few days.

Quoting VR46L:


No Idea !! but the Navy and Tropical atlantic are showing it .. there is even spag models up ...


Well, if it hits me I do not care though Sat images look like it is NOTHING so even if it does hit me I will likely only see taller cumulus rather than cirrus and little smushed, fair weather cumulus. BTW do they have a floater for it? that would make me laugh so much.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Some people disagree with that statement, like me;)

Look at post 168.
FLOOD ADVISORY...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

PRC023-059-067-079-093-111-113-121-125-153-252200 -
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0356.120925T2010Z-120925T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-LAJAS PR-MARICAO PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE
PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-CABO ROJO PR-
410 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...HORMIGUEROS...LAJAS...MARICAO...PENUE LAS...PONCE...
SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO AND CABO ROJO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 405 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1795 6721 1814 6718 1815 6709 1817 6707
1820 6696 1816 6683 1811 6675 1814 6658
1797 6656 1796 6676 1799 6677 1796 6679
1796 6686 1803 6689 1803 6695 1795 6698
1795 6705 1796 6706 1794 6709

$$

ER
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
407 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

PRC023-059-067-079-093-111-113-121-125-153-252200 -
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0355.120925T2007Z-120925T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-LAJAS PR-MARICAO PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE
PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-CABO ROJO PR-405 PM AST
TUE SEP 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...HORMIGUEROS...LAJAS...MARICAO...PENUE LAS...PONCE...
SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO AND CABO ROJO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 405 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1795 6721 1814 6718 1815 6709 1817 6707
1820 6696 1816 6683 1811 6675 1814 6658
1797 6656 1796 6676 1799 6677 1796 6679
1796 6686 1803 6689 1803 6695 1795 6698
1795 6705 1796 6706 1794 6709

$$

ER
The Green Bay Packers became the latest NFL team to lose on a highly questionable call by the league's replacement referees last night. WGBA, Green Bay's Fox affiliate, poked fun at the situation this morning, bringing in a "replacement weather guy" to handle the forecast.

it's pretty bad out there people, - the replacement weather guy said (video above). "200 degrees below we're looking at, and it's really going to heat up. It's going to be like 346 degrees by noon."

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvspy/green-bay-nbc-af filiate-uses-replacement-weather-guy-to-poke-fun-a t-nfl-refs_b63097
Quoting VR46L:


No Idea !! but the Navy and Tropical atlantic are showing it .. there is even spag models up ...


Could it be the bahama energy I see on GFS loops this morning moving N like the spag models you show? the nor'easter??
179. VR46L
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Well, if it hits me I do not care though Sat images look like it is NOTHING so even if it does hit me I will likely only see taller cumulus rather than cirrus and little smushed, fair weather cumulus. BTW do they have a floater for it? that would make me laugh so much.


there you go I can see nothing

in Rainbow



and vapour

Quoting VR46L:


there you go I can see nothing

in Rainbow



and vapour


Yup nothing. A bunch of convection to the W but nothing in the center. Maybe a little swirl? Still not enough for an invest for sure.
Quoting VR46L:


there you go I can see nothing

in Rainbow



and vapour



The low to my east comes from a northward pulse of energy from the Bahamas then merges with a front from the Ohio valley.
link Link
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Look at post 168.

As I look at post 168 I don't know how that relates to what I said.
183. VR46L
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Yup nothing. A bunch of convection to the W but nothing in the center. Maybe a little swirl? Still not enough for an invest for sure.


I guess maybe they are nervous that GOES14 might not be picking something up and are having a cautious approach till they know how good the sat is.
Quoting wxchaser97:

As I look at post 168 I don't know how that relates to what I said.

Sorry wrong post :) *runs away feeling really really really embarrassed*
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




Don't buy a bridge from these guys....

Agree FAIL
HURRICANE MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 114.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 200SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 114.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 115.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.9N 115.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.2N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 25.5N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


NNNN
Quoting VR46L:


I guess maybe they are nervous that GOES14 might not be picking something up and are having a cautious approach till they know how good the sat is.

Good point. Why dont they look at the imagery you posted. They can access that right?
189. VR46L
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


The low to my east comes from a northward pulse of energy from the Bahamas then merges with a front from the Ohio valley.
link Link


that could make next week interesting for you
Quoting VR46L:


that could make next week interesting for you

Yeah. That would be welcome relief from my days of watching cirrus clods inch past. Also, we are in drought I think.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Sorry wrong post :) *runs away feeling really really really embarrassed*

No it's ok, everyone makes mistakes.
192. VR46L
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Good point. Why dont they look at the imagery you posted. They can access that right?


LOL .. I am sure they are but maybe the sat has some weakness that they know about that we don't
Quoting VR46L:


LOL .. I am sure they are but maybe the sat has some weakness that they know about that we don't

Interesting. Seemed fine to me. Well interesting for sure.
Quoting wxchaser97:

No it's ok, everyone makes mistakes.

:)
Quoting sar2401:


This has some real possiblities if we work it right in the USA. Let's offer commercial sponsorships, like we do for football and baseball stadiums. Companies that want to improve their image would pay big money to get a nice high pressure system named after them. Imagine "This fine weather is being bought to you courtesy of high pressure system Exxon". Low pressure systems might be a harder sell, but there might be companies that would want a more destructive storm named after them. "Storm Allstate is responsible for ripping the roof off your house. How's you insurance coverage?". Or, "Storm Home Depot knocked over a lot of fences today".

We could even offer corporate sponsorships for HH aircraft. Imagine "Hurricane Hunter United Ailines is scheduled to fly today.". The Global Hawk could bring some big money from a multinational corporation. "Global Hawk General Electric is currently investigating storm Lowes Home Improvement Centers". We could even have local NWS offices named after corporate sponsors. The Duluth office could be renamed the Campbells Chicken Soup Office. The Las Vegas Office could be renamed something like the Steve Wynn Office. I think we could almost completely fund the NOAA and the NWS from people and corporations who want their names on the hundreds of low and high pressure systems that affect te USA every year. We just have to think out of the box on this.

You'll have to excuse me now...I'm starting to feel a little nauseous. :)
LOL You know, you aren't too far off the mark. Home Depot and Lowes make a lot of money from the rebuilding of wrecked homes. And the minute a disaster hits anywhere in the country, the Insurance companies start raising rates across the board. I know those owners of Home Depot cheer on the hurricanes every year. Don't you realize that the car companies have been doing well since last year because of all the flooded out cars having to be replaced. Basically a cause and effect situation.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


The low to my east comes from a northward pulse of energy from the Bahamas then merges with a front from the Ohio valley.
link Link

Also shown here is perpetual Nadine and a POWERFUL Alaskan storm
Anyone on Twitter here? Everyone follow @StormForce_1

Beautiful day at the New Jersey shore today. little windy but nice.
Another wasted invest it seems...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Another wasted invest it seems...

Yup
it looks like the CMC and Euro are on the same level in predicting a GOM storm and heading it east..

East Coast


GOM




Euro
Quoting washingtonian115:
Another wasted invest it seems...

Why Why WHy??
"HOWEVER...THE LONG-RANGE GLOBAL MODEL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE ALREADY TWO-WEEK-OLD CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER
THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME."

Why is Nadine not getting shot southward the the high to her West?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Another wasted invest it seems...
Why do you say "wasted". Like we can save them for future? I don't understand your thinking.

HURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 25 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MIRIAM HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN DECREASING...WHILE THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THE CYCLONE
HAVE BECOME LESS DISTINCT. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 26N111W IS ALREADY IMPINGING ON MIRIAM...WITH SHIPS
AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING 20 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM SAB
AND TAFB...WHILE ADT CI VALUES ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 75 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THESE DATA.

THE ABOVEMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING MIRIAM WILL
PRODUCE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS. AS A RESULT...
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE SHEAR
BECOMES MORE EXTREME BY DAY 3...THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MIRIAM
DECOUPLING AND LIKELY DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS REDUCED AGAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM OUTPUT. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW INDICATED SOONER...ON DAY 3.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/04. MIRIAM IS ABOUT TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE BY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 115W. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE IN THE SHORT TERM...
PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION THAT HAS
PERSISTED LONGER THAN EXPECTED. SINCE IT APPEARS THAT MIRIAM WILL
BECOME A SHALLOW VORTEX SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THE NHC
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 18.9N 114.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.6N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.7N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.9N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 24.2N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 25.5N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Quoting kwgirl:
Why do you say "wasted". Like we can save them for future? I don't understand your thinking.
There is almost nothing there and the environment around it is horrible for any kind of development.Might be what get's sucked into the front causing our rain chances to go starting this weekend.
Marrying the topics of Sea-foam and Hurricanes, from last year:
Local FOX Reporter Covering Hurricane Irene Covered in Sea Foam of Raw Sewage. (Picture, Story and Video)

Likely sensationalized for disgusting shock value, but probably not too far from the truth
...NADINE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 25
Location: 31.7°N 30.4°W
Moving: WSW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

...MIRIAM GRADUALLY WEAKENING... ...LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON...
2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 25
Location: 18.9°N 114.9°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
Quoting sar2401:


This has some real possiblities if we work it right in the USA. Let's offer commercial sponsorships, like we do for football and baseball stadiums. Companies that want to improve their image would pay big money to get a nice high pressure system named after them. Imagine "This fine weather is being bought to you courtesy of high pressure system Exxon". Low pressure systems might be a harder sell, but there might be companies that would want a more destructive storm named after them. "Storm Allstate is responsible for ripping the roof off your house. How's you insurance coverage?". Or, "Storm Home Depot knocked over a lot of fences today".

We could even offer corporate sponsorships for HH aircraft. Imagine "Hurricane Hunter United Ailines is scheduled to fly today.". The Global Hawk could bring some big money from a multinational corporation. "Global Hawk General Electric is currently investigating storm Lowes Home Improvement Centers". We could even have local NWS offices named after corporate sponsors. The Duluth office could be renamed the Campbells Chicken Soup Office. The Las Vegas Office could be renamed something like the Steve Wynn Office. I think we could almost completely fund the NOAA and the NWS from people and corporations who want their names on the hundreds of low and high pressure systems that affect te USA every year. We just have to think out of the box on this.

You'll have to excuse me now...I'm starting to feel a little nauseous. :)


Oh the fun that marketing agencies could have with that. "Today's crappy weather brought to you by 'insert toilet paper company of your choice'"
Our local news paper gave Nadine this name "Never die Nadine".They have a article on her.to lazy to give the link to the article though.
Ok...so why do we have Invest 95L? There's nothing there!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Our local news paper gave Nadine this name "Never die Nadine".They have a article on her.to lazy to give the link to the article though.

I don't know which is more work...LOL...to type that phrase or to post the actual link....
Quoting washingtonian115:
Another wasted invest it seems...
It is possible that an Invest is created just for training purposes or as an exercise. They really are not created for public purposes, although we follow them here. If it is not in the TWO, then it is nothing.
The 12z ECMWF says Nadine will be around for 10 more days.

At four advisories a day for 10 days, that would make its advisory count somewhere near 95 by October 5.

Quoting guygee:
It is possible that an Invest is created just for training purposes or as an exercise. They really are not created for public purposes, although we follow them here. If it is not in the TWO, then it is nothing.

Good point. I was thinking the Invest was a practice for testing a reboot of the GOES-E satellite. It has been out for more than 24 hours now...with GOES-W taking some of its cover...
Whoever the forecaster is who called this invest "MUST" have been bored with Nadine.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Whoever the forecaster is who called this invest "MUST" have been bored with Nadine.

Nah...I prefer the theories in post 215 or 213...they aren't that nuts...
Quoting guygee:
It is possible that an Invest is created just for training purposes or as an exercise. They really are not created for public purposes, although we follow them here. If it is not in the TWO, then it is nothing.
Well it's my opinion that it's wasted.I'd be different if I said the NHC were padding numbers by naming just any type of T.C like some people have been preaching on here :).
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I don't know which is more work...LOL...to type that phrase or to post the actual link....
The link is really long.
Can you guys help me figure out what type of candy to get Nadine for Halloween?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can you guys help me figure out what type of candy to get Nadine for Halloween?

Sure, get her some skittles, snickers, smarties, sweet tarts, nerds... Start making the Thanksgiving dinner and buy Nadine some Christmas presents.

Models say we will be dealing with Nadine for a couple more weeks possible, she may break the record.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can you guys help me figure out what type of candy to get Nadine for Halloween?


Pack of gobstoppers, long lasting.

Fitting considering.
Quoting Grothar:
(Model Run Graphics)
Here are the initial conditions for those runs:

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 21.5N LONM12 = 68.2W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 20.2N LONM24 = 66.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
95L

95L has been depicted on the GFS as well as the Euro as a possible TC formation.
I wish I knew how to make the little picture thingies like the young people make.I wanted to have the current satellite image of Nadine with a troll face on top since she WON'T DIE and is out there trolling in the Atlantic.
Quoting ncstorm:
95L has been depicted on the GFS as well as the Euro as a possible TC formation.

People are too focused on what it looks like right now and what it may become in a few days as it moves north, west of Bermuda.
Quoting ncstorm:
95L has been depicted on the GFS as well as the Euro as a possible TC formation.

Yeah I saw that, one of the reasons why it is probably tagged. I still think we will see a couple more storms.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I wish I knew how to make the little picture thingies like the young people make.I wanted to have the current satellite image of Nadine with a troll face on top since she WON'T DIE and is out there trolling in the Atlantic.

I would, but I don't know how well that would go over.
Quoting whitewabit:
95L

What's that thing North-east of the Antillies?.It's swirling out there and have convection with it.Is it cold core?.
Quoting washingtonian115:
What's that thing North-east of the Antillies?.It's swirling out there and have convection with it.Is it cold core?.

I was wondering the same thing, what is that?
Jelawat is the best tropical cyclone of the year IMO.
Quoting ncstorm:
95L has been depicted on the GFS as well as the Euro as a possible TC formation.
I do not see it in the 12Z GFS at all...where do you see it?
Quoting wxchaser97:

I was wondering the same thing, what is that?
Yeah looks more interesting than that invest that's been declared.When people said 95L I thought that was what they were talking about.
221 TropicalAnalystwx13: Can you guys help me figure out what type of candy to get Nadine for Halloween?

http://www.hulu.com/watch/4136
Quoting Ameister12:
I think Jelawat is the best tropical cyclone of the year.

Jelawat is definitely got second, it is pretty close between Sanba and Jelawat for first and one could argue for either storm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

People are too focused on what it looks like right now and what it may become in a few days as it moves north, west of Bermuda.


I don't think an invest should be declared until it is at least a Category 3. Whoever heard of a naked swirl ever becoming anything.
The amazing outflow on Jelawat is what's really impressive to me about the system- perfect in all quadrants and its been that way for a while:

Evening everybody.... got a late meeting so am sitting in Starbucks for a while...

We got some pretty decent rain this a.m. and around 4 p.m. local time. I doubt it amounted to an inch, but it was fast enough for some localized flooding and an overall cooler day. The humidity is still ridiculous, though... I doubt we get any real relief before the middle of next month.

Meanwhile, with this kind of saturation building, any wind storm could lead to some serious downed trees... so I hope things stay quiet for a while...
The counter-clockwise spin at 58W is an upper-level low that has managed to work some of its energy down to the mid-levels of the atmosphere. It's hard to get a fully cold-core low to release enough heat to build thunderstorm activity and become a tropical cyclone. I wouldn't worry about it.
The sun now shines on Ewiniar, looks to be organizing. I can't wait to see visible images of Jelawat, only an hour or two.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The counter-clockwise spin at 58W is an upper-level low that has managed to work some of its energy down to the mid-levels of the atmosphere. It's hard to get a fully cold-core low to release enough heat to build thunderstorm activity and become a tropical cyclone. I wouldn't worry about it.

Thanks Cody, I didn't know what that low was and I'll focus on Nadine, 95L, Miriam, Ewiniar, and Jelawat.


12Z GFS Forecast for Nadine and 95L at 90 Hrs.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can you guys help me figure out what type of candy to get Nadine for Halloween?
Bit-O-Honey.....It lasts a long time
There's absolutely nothing at the coordinates given for 95L
I say it's either a test or today is some sort of Meteorologist's version of April Fools Day.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The amazing outflow on Jelawat is what's really impressive to me about the system- perfect in all quadrants and its been that way for a while:

This is one lovely storm... gotta say... and the outflow is one sign of the cat five status... like a badge. The best cat 5s have that kind of outflow, plus the eye that is clear with an identifiable swirl or pinwheel pattern. Check Mitch, one or two others, to see what I mean.
Nadine looks like it's being eaten by a big monster in the East Atlantic.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Nadine looks like it's being eaten by a big monster in the East Atlantic.


I call it the death-line, I wanted her to live forever though.
Quoting guygee:


12Z GFS Forecast for Nadine and 95L at 90 Hrs.


For the experts out there... Is it possible for a storm like Nadine to flow around the central Atlantic high and come back around again toward the west or the islands? I wouldn't think so but I'm sure stranger things have and can happen.
With a possible 0.5% Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability, 95L looks like a grave threat to Civilization As We Know It (CAWKI).
Quoting Grothar:
Nadine looks like one of the nicer 45mph storms I have seen.
Well whatever happens early next week, it's highly unlikely we'll get a cut-off around the lower Miss. valley(as advertised by the 12z GFS) due to...

1. A closed low already depicted over the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

2. A split flow with the southern branch too close to pinch off anything(other then perhaps an insignificant transient impulse).

All models except the 12z GFS has a cold front though Florida by Wednesday!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
What's that thing North-east of the Antillies?.It's swirling out there and have convection with it.Is it cold core?.

Yes...its an ULL (and yes all ULLs are cold core). This ULL is formerly the ULL that was over Invest 94L days ago...
Quoting weatherbro:
Well whatever happens early next week, it's highly unlikely we'll get a cut-off around the lower Miss. valley(as advertised by the 12z GFS) due to...

1. A closed low already depicted over the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

2. A split flow with the southern branch too close to pinch off anything(other then perhaps an insignificant transient impulse).

All models except the 12z GFS has a cold front though Florida by Wednesday!!!
HPC agrees with you on discounting GFS over CONUS:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 28 2012 - 12Z TUE OCT 02 2012

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5, SWITCHING TO THE ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO MITIGATE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORTWAVES AT THAT TIME RANGE. WHERE THE ECMWF DIFFERED FROM THE GFS, IT WAS BETTER SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ECENS MEAN AND THE GEFS MEAN, SO RELIED ON THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE. THE MOST PRESSING CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS THE HANDLING OF THE TAIL END OF THE POLAR FRONT OVER THE GULF STATES. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH DID NOT WANT TO COMMIT TO THE AGGRESSIVE RAINFALL INDICATED BY THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF JUST YET, PENDING MORE CORROBORATION WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.
[...]
Color me excited - the high peaks of central Colorado are getting a dusting of the white stuff today! :)

(You can see the new dusting in this webcam image if you squint a little).



(Click image to embiggen)

Oh, and this webcam near Blackhawk shows snow level has dropped to the lower 9000' range (this webcam is at roughly 9,200'):

The blog states that there were 2 cat 5's last year and that this years total has matched it. I'm pretty sure there was 3 cat 5's last year unless I'm mistaken? Songda, Nanmadol and Muifa?
The sun has risen on Jelawat.
261. etxwx
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can you guys help me figure out what type of candy to get Nadine for Halloween?


Now and Later
since she doesn't appear to be leaving now or later.

Confirmed tornado on the ground in Illinois. Strong radar signature.
Jelawat appears to be ready to undergo another EWRC.

Quoting wxchaser97:
The sun has risen on Jelawat.
Looks like an EWRC about to happen, IMO.
Jelawat has most likely peaked. Might be under category 5 intensity.
Quoting Thing342:
Looks like an EWRC about to happen, IMO.

Beat ya. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Confirmed tornado on the ground in Illinois. Strong radar signature.

Yup, strong storms out there today.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jelawat appears to be ready to undergo another EWRC.


The eyewall wasn't looking as good at lunch today so I figured an EWRC would be happening soon.
All the microwave images are recently update but none show the center.
268. etxwx
From the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang blog: Never Die Nadine
Excerpt: Nadine has now been a numbered tropical cyclone (depression, storm, or hurricane) for 13 days, not including the 1.5 days near the Azores when it was considered “post-tropical”. It has been a tropical storm or hurricane for 12.25 days. While 12.25 days is fairly long, it’s nowhere near the record. In 1899, the “San Ciriaco” hurricane lasted 28 days as at least a tropical storm. It was responsible for 3,433 deaths, and passed over the northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, and North Carolina as a powerful hurricane. Other noteworthy long-lived Atlantic storms include Ginger (27.25 days in 1971), Inga (24.75 days in 1969), Kyle (22.00 days in 2002), and #4 (21.00 days in 1926).
Jelawat is definitely going through another EWRC.


Everybody say their good-byes. Jelawat will lose Category 5 typhoon status once and for all by tomorrow morning most likely.
Quoting Thing342:
Looks like an EWRC about to happen, IMO.

That's because one is about to happen, TA beat ya.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Everybody say their good-byes. Jelawat will lose Category 5 typhoon status once and for all by tomorrow morning most likely.

We should remember the glory days of Jelawat, now for a moment of silence. Ok, he was a really good looking cat5 typhoon and that status will be missed dearly.
Quoting wxchaser97:

We should remember the glory days of Jelawat, now for a moment of silence. Ok, he was a really good looking cat5 typhoon and that status will be missed dearly.


And the most important thing is that it didn't make landfall anywhere at that category.
274. etxwx
Jelawat report from Focus Taiwan News Channel:
Super Typhoon Jelawat to affect Taiwan the most Friday
2012/09/25 17:19:20 Taipei, Sept. 25 (CNA) The outer periphery of Super Typhoon Jelawat will begin affecting Taiwan on Thursday and have its greatest impact on the island Friday, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) predicted Tuesday.

The CWB said that as of 2 p.m. Tuesday, the typhoon was 1,000 kilometers away from Taiwan's southernmost top of Eluanbi, moving in a northwesterly direction at a speed of 11 km per hour. It was packing sustained winds of 198 kph and had gusts of up to 244 kph, the bureau said, and has been designated as a super typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, an United States agency that is responsible for issuing warnings on storms in the North West Pacific Ocean and South Pacific Ocean.

According to the CWB, the storm is heading directly for Taiwan but will veer to the northeast on Friday without directly hitting the island's eastern coast. Taiwan should begin feeling the effect of Jelawat on Thursday at the earliest, with rainfall expected in eastern and northern Taiwan, the bureau said. The CWB is likely to issue a sea warning between Wednesday night and Thursday morning and will not rule out the possibility of issuing a land warning.

Those who are hoping to see the moon on Sunday, when Taiwan celebrates its Moon Festival, are likely to be disappointed, the bureau said, because of the high probability it will be a cloudy and rainy day.
(By Lin Sheng-hsu and Lilian Wu)
Everyone in Illinois keep ur heads up and be vigillant.... nasty storms over that way
The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
western Jefferson County in south central Illinois...

* until 645 PM CDT.

* At 559 PM CDT... radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of
producing a tornado. This dangerous storm was located 6 miles west
of Irvington... or 7 miles northeast of Nashville... moving east at
20 mph.

A wall cloud was reported near Okawville at 542 PM CDT... and
damage was reported with this storm near Okawville at 548 PM CDT.
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for northern
Cowley... southeastern Butler and western Greenwood counties until 630
PM CDT...

At 604 PM CDT... a scattered line of severe thunderstorms was located
along a line extending from 11 miles west of Eureka to 5 miles
southwest of Atlanta... and moving northeast at 25 mph.

Hazard... half dollar size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
Off Topic but important

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
SOUTH CAROLINA LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IN COLUMBIA SOUTH
CAROLINA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY CONTINUES...

THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE EXISTING AMBER ALERT.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IN COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.

THIS IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT IS REGARDING AN ABDUCTED CHILD.

THE SOUTH CAROLINA STATE LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION CONTINUES LOOKING
FOR ABIGALE FAITH LEFEVERS...A WHITE FEMALE...AGE 12...WEIGHING 90
POUNDS...5 FEET 4 INCHES TALL...WITH GREEN EYES...AND SHOULDER
LENGTH BROWN HAIR. THE CHILD IS BELIEVED TO BE IN EXTREME DANGER. NO
CLOTHING INFORMATION WAS AVAILABLE.

AUTHORITIES ADVISE THE CHILD WAS LIKELY ABDUCTED BY TIMOTHY HOWARD
NEWMAN...A WHITE MALE...AGE 38...210 POUNDS...5 FEET 8 INCHES
TALL...WITH BROWN EYES...AND SHORT BROWN HAIR. THEY MAY BE
TRAVELING IN A 1998 CHRYSLER SEBRING...RED COLOR...WITH A BLACK
TOP....NORTH CAROLINA TAG AKT 6534.

THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE THE SUSPECT AND VICTIM MAY BE IN THE
MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA AREA...OR POSSIBLY TRAVELING ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY HE IS HANGING AROUND
MARINAS...AND COULD POSSIBLY BE ON A BOAT. HE MAY BE DRIVING ALONG
BACK ROADS IN ORDER TO AVOID MAJOR HIGHWAYS.
279. etxwx
Not weather related, more like strange science news...
Einstein's Brain On An iPad? Surprisingly, There's Now An App For That
CHICAGO (AP) — While Albert Einstein's genius isn't included, an exclusive iPad application launched Tuesday promises to make detailed images of his brain more accessible to scientists than ever before.
More here.
Issued: Sep 25, 2012 8:00 am HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of thunderstorms associated with a weak low about 1000 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii was moving to the west at 10 miles per hour. Thunderstorm development has been persistent over the last 24 hours. Earlier satellite imagery indicated a weak rotation within the disturbance. Therefore, there is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.


something could happen in the central pacific
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Issued: Sep 25, 2012 8:00 am HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140W and 180.

1. An area of thunderstorms associated with a weak low about 1000 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii was moving to the west at 10 miles per hour. Thunderstorm development has been persistent over the last 24 hours. Earlier satellite imagery indicated a weak rotation within the disturbance. Therefore, there is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.


something could happen in the central pacific
When was the last time there was a storm form in the CPac?. Omeka 2010?
Jelawat may be undergoing an EWRC but it still looks pretty darn good to me:

Quoting Thing342:
When was the last time there was a storm form in the CPac?. Omeka 2010?

Yes, the last was Omeka. Although, several have persisted into the Central Pacific.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, the last was Omeka. Although, several have persisted into the Central Pacific.
Only two since Omeka: Fernanda and Daniel
18z GFS shows twin developments on each side of CentralAmerica. I would wish it was at 120 hours to then have more credibility,but is on very long range.
95L. It looks ominous.

Quoting Grothar:
95L. It looks ominous.



I'm in that picture...

I'm Omniverous,

but I didn't think it showed from that distance.
I see an "I"

who thinks nadine can break records for atlantic's longest lasting tropical cyclone?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I'm in that picture...

I'm Omniverous,

but I didn't think it showed from that distance.


I thought Caicos only ate Turks.
We are getting a lot of rain.

Maybe this moisture will make it into 95L.


Quoting Speeky:
who thinks nadine can break records for atlantic's longest lasting tropical cyclone?

I'd give it a 30% chance of doing so. It needs to last 16 more days.
Quoting Grothar:
Maybe this moisture will make it into 95L.


It would appear the MJO is here with all that moisture around.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It would appear the MJO is hear with all that moisture around.

Only thing is that the mjo isn't here yet, it will be.
If you squint real hard and turn your monitor upside-down, you can almost see 95L.

The eastern pacific really wants to catch the Atlantic.THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Quoting Slamguitar:
If you squint real hard and turn your monitor upside-down, you can almost see 95L.


Lol, 95L is a really threatening invest so we better watch out.

It is possible, if it is a real invest, to get something out of it.
New AOI in the eastern Pacific, at 20%.


1. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:






















































24.835N, 110.152W
Depth: 10.1km (6.3mi)



Event Time
2012-09-25 23:45:26 UTC
2012-09-25 16:45:26 UTC-07:00 at epicenter
2012-09-25 19:45:26 UTC-04:00 system time


Nearby Cities
75km (47mi) NNE of La Paz, Mexico
154km (96mi) E of Ciudad Constitucion, Mexico
154km (96mi) SW of Ahome, Mexico
157km (98mi) SW of Los Mochis, Mexico
972km (604mi) SSE of Phoenix, Arizona
Still looking amazing.
Quoting Grothar:
95L. It looks ominous.



Frightening the entire Bahamas..
Quoting wxchaser97:
New AOI in the eastern Pacific, at 20%.


1. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.





Your a little late it been there about 24 too 48hrs now I noted they started talking about that on Monday
Quoting wxchaser97:
The sun has risen on Jelawat.


Stadium Effect
Quoting Grothar:
We are getting a lot of rain.

Good think I'm heading home soon... I hate driving at night in the rain... too many invisible potholes that way...
Quoting Slamguitar:
If you squint real hard and turn your monitor upside-down, you can almost see 95L.

That loop plays MASSIVELY well with Firefox... lol...

Not only are we [New Providence] in Grothar's eye, but we are it...

;)
Quoting Tazmanian:




Your a little late it been there about 24 too 48hrs now I noted they started talking about that on Monday

They started talking about it in the 2pm EDT (11am PDT) Tropical Weather outlook...today.
A cool image of the WPac.
Quoting Thrawst:


Stadium Effect


Please, no football on the blog.
Quoting MrMixon:
Color me excited - the high peaks of central Colorado are getting a dusting of the white stuff today! :)

(You can see the new dusting in this webcam image if you squint a little).



(Click image to embiggen)

Oh, and this webcam near Blackhawk shows snow level has dropped to the lower 9000' range (this webcam is at roughly 9,200'):

Your first picture looks like around Buena Vista/Leadville??
Quoting BahaHurican:
That loop plays MASSIVELY well with Firefox... lol...

Not only are we [New Providence] in Grothar's eye, but we are it...

;)



Be careful.

Why the HECK hasn't 95L been classified yet!?!? Greatest looking invest ever... =P
Quoting Ameister12:
Why the HECK hasn't 95L been classified yet!!! Greatest looking invest ever!
Where is it?
Quoting Ameister12:
Why the HECK hasn't 95L been classified yet!?!? Greatest looking invest ever... =P
Hey, it could be a Cat 5, and you'd never know it. :P
I found something about 95L so impressive.

Link
Definitely weather related:

Link
Quoting unknowncomic:
I found something about 95L so impressive.

Link


So... A complete lack of any type of core??


Sounds 'bout right. :D
95L must exist in an alternate dimension...

sort of a "quantum" invest

perhaps even consisting of dark matter...

; )

who knows
Quoting seer2012:
Your first picture looks like around Buena Vista/Leadville??


The first webcam is near Nederland, Colorado and is looking towards the Indian Peaks (which are currently pitch black). The Indian Peaks comprise a large wilderness area adjacent to the southern border of Rocky Mountain National Park. The webcam is about one hour northwest of Denver at about 8,300'.

EDIT: The Buena Vista/Leadville area is at the headwaters of the Arkansas River and is one of my favorite places.

I took this photo last summer just north of Buena Vista:

Mt. Princeton

(Tried to embed the image several times, but with no apparent success. Sorry if I caused any weirdness for the blog. Did anyone actually see the embedded photo?)



Stealth Invest
can anyone tell me where is 95L??? I just saw that on ATCF
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
can anyone tell me where is 95L??? I just saw that on ATCF


It doesn't exist.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
95L must exist in an alternate dimension...

sort of a "quantum" invest

perhaps even consisting of dark matter...

; )

who knows

OK, I'm confused. Does 95L really exist? I can't find it on the NHC site or the tropical weather page here. All I can see is the tropical moisture fetch which has been in place for almost a week, with no sign of anything happening. I'm assuming 95L had to be some kind of error.
Edit: Never mind, I just saw Kori's post. Looks like another case of people taking an ATCF message as gospel. I wish people would stop doing that and wait until the NHC declares that something generated by a computer is real.
Quoting Ameister12:


Beautiful.
Jelawat:

Quoting Slamguitar:
Definitely weather related:

Link

Now that was funny. :)
Quoting Civicane49:
Jelawat:


Probably not a Category 5 anymore.
Nadine:



Miriam:

Quoting Grothar:
We are getting a lot of rain.


That tropical moisture plume has been over south Florida for what...a week now? I guess all the dry air from up my way just keeps pushing the tropical moisture to the south and, with nowhere else to go, it heads for you. It's been beautiful here in central AL, with highs around 80 and lows in the md-50's. Looks like we should start to get return flow from the Gulf stating Thursday, so maybe that will disrupt that long moisture fetch over you.
Quoting Civicane49:
Nadine:



Miriam:

I'm starting to think that Miriam may not be a hurricane any more.
GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
OVER THE NE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N81W TO A BASE NEAR 23N90W. EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N72W. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFE SUPPORT TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...THE AMPLE DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SE OF A LINE FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NEAR 28N83W TO 23N90W. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
Quoting Thing342:
I'm starting to think that Miriam may not be a hurricane any more.


It takes time for winds to die down.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N71W TO 18N67W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH A 700 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 26N71W. PLENTY OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE WITH TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING ELEVATED VALUES FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 65W-75W. THE RESULT IS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 63W-73W.
Quoting Thing342:
I'm starting to think that Miriam may not be a hurricane any more.


Looks can be deceiving when storms are in the decaying phase.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Looks can be deceiving when storms are in the decaying phase.


True. Especially when a cyclone rapidly weakens.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
can anyone tell me where is 95L??? I just saw that on ATCF


how come there is 95l ON atcf then?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how come there is 95l ON atcf then?


So my sarcasm wasn't obvious enough? Damn.

It does exist, but I'm at a loss as to why they classified it...
TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 30.4W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 30.4W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 30.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.5N 30.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.6N 30.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.7N 31.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.4N 32.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 100SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 35.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 33.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 30.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

...NADINE TURNS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 30.4W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


BULLETIN
HURRICANE MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...MIRIAM GRADUALLY WEAKENING...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 115.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

THE CENTRAL REGION OF NADINE CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
BROAD CONVECTION-FREE AREA...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT WHICH IS
BETWEEN THE LATEST ADT AND AMSU ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
LARGE FIELD OF STRATIFORM CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NADINE
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A STABLE AIR MASS...AND NOT A CONDUCIVE
FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OVER
NADINE IS NOT STRONG AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY
WARM...AND SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FARTHER SOUTH. A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
HALT STRENGTHENING.

THE STORM HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED TURN TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING
ABOUT 210/4. THIS MOTION...OR EVEN A SOUTHWARD MOTION...IS LIKELY
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
A STRONG TROUGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. IN 2-3 DAYS...AS THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...NADINE
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. HOWEVER IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL MOVE TO A HIGH ENOUGH LATITUDE TO BRING ABOUT ITS
DEMISE ANY TIME SOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 31.2N 30.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 30.5N 30.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.6N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 28.7N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 28.4N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 29.0N 34.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 31.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 33.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
HURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 25 2012

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS CONTINUING TO TAKE ITS TOLL
ON MIRIAM THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS LOSING ITS CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM
SAB WHILE A 2214Z AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS WAS 72 KT. A
BLEND OF THESE GIVES 70 KT AT THE ADVISORY TIME.

TWO FORTUITOUS AMSU AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES PROVIDE A RELATIVELY
CONFIDENT ESTIMATE THAT THE MOTION OF MIRIAM IS NEAR 310/4. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS EAST. A CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSFORMS INTO A REMNANT LOW...IT SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WHILE BEING ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
TRACK PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TRACK
CONSENSUS EXCLUDING THE UKMET...AS THIS MODEL HAS AN
UNREALISTICALLY SLOW SPEED IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE.

MIRIAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNDER THE COMBINED
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...COOLING SSTS AND A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AROUND
THREE DAYS AS THE SSTS BY THAT TIME SHOULD BE AROUND 24C. THE
INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.1N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 19.8N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 21.0N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.2N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 22.9N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 24.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
...NADINE TURNS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...
11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 25
Location: 31.2°N 30.4°W
Moving: SSW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

...MIRIAM GRADUALLY WEAKENING...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 25
Location: 19.1°N 115.2°W
Moving: NW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

95L is almost certainly a mistake.
Quoting sar2401:

OK, I'm confused. Does 95L really exist? I can't find it on the NHC site or the tropical weather page here. All I can see is the tropical moisture fetch which has been in place for almost a week, with no sign of anything happening. I'm assuming 95L had to be some kind of error.
Edit: Never mind, I just saw Kori's post. Looks like another case of people taking an ATCF message as gospel. I wish people would stop doing that and wait until the NHC declares that something generated by a computer is real.
I think it really exist I think Kori say he was joking.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center says Jelawat is no longer a Category 5 typhoon.

Anyways, later guys..

Usually an invest is declared and THEN a floater is put up...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/95L_ floater.html
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center says Jelawat is no longer a Category 5 typhoon.

Anyways, later guys..


Good night Cody, I believe Jelawat isn't a cat5 as well.
Quoting MrMixon:
Color me excited - the high peaks of central Colorado are getting a dusting of the white stuff today! :)

(You can see the new dusting in this webcam image if you squint a little).



(Click image to embiggen)

Oh, and this webcam near Blackhawk shows snow level has dropped to the lower 9000' range (this webcam is at roughly 9,200'):



Hey MrMixon! Just got back from hiking Bear peak in Boulder. My friend and I where ecstatic when we gained the main ridge and could see the Indian Peaks coated in the white stuff. Heres a few photos I took about two hours ago.



Sorry if this is a repost:
Today's tornado in southern Illinois. Took out at least three barn houses, hopefully no more than that. No fatalities reported and only 1 injury so far.
Quoting Ameister12:
Jelawat is the best tropical cyclone of the year IMO.

So you've forgotten about Super Typhoon Sanba?
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #22
TYPHOON LAWIN (JELAWAT)
11:00 AM PhST September 26 2012
==================================

Typhoon "LAWIN" gains strength as it moves toward Batanes-Cagayan area

At 10:00 AM PhSt, Typhoon Lawin (Jelawat) [927 hPa] located at 17.6°N 126.4°E or 435 km east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 5 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Batanes Group of Islands
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan
4. Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Kalinga
3. Apayao
4. Abra
5. Isabela

Additional Information
=====================

Residents living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Estimated amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 850 km diameter of the Typhoon.

Southwest Monsoon enhanced by the typhoon will continue to bring occasional moderate to heavy rains in MIMAROPA, Bicol Region and Visayas.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of central Luzon, the seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao due to big waves generated by Typhoon "Lawin" and Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting angelafritz:
Sorry if this is a repost:
Today's tornado in southern Illinois. Took out at least three barn houses, hopefully no more than that. No fatalities reported and only 1 injury so far.


Isn't that a rare occurrence?
Quoting AussieStorm:

So you've forgotten about Super Typhoon Sanba?


He didn't say strongest. Best in his opinion could mean anything, lol.

Like best artistic patterning of pretty colors on the funktop.

:D
Quoting AussieStorm:


Isn't that a rare occurrence?


That it was in southern Illinois or that it happened in late September?

Here's the September tornado climatology for the U.S.:

Geaux Sneaux
Jelawat

RainBow Top Loop

Quoting Slamguitar:


He didn't say strongest. Best in his opinion could mean anything, lol.

Like best artistic patterning of pretty colors on the funktop.

:D

In my opinion Sanba was better visually especially size wise compared to Jelawat. Sanba was 1100NM in diameter, Jelawat is only 450MN. For a typhoon of the size of Sanba to wind up so much it can gain Cat 5 intensity is pretty darn remarkable. We all know, the smaller the system, the easier for it to spin up. I guess that's why Typhoon Tip is even more remarkable.

Anyone notice in the WPAC when there is a Cat 5, another typhoon is close by?
T numbers, Dvorak Descriptive Looks, and other make the "tale of the tape".

Visuals can be deadly deceiving..as Issac showed us..., again.

Fresca anyone?
Looking at some POES satellites..AMSU rain rate..click pic for loop.
Quoting angelafritz:


That it was in southern Illinois or that it happened in late September?

Here's the September tornado climatology for the U.S.:


I was thinking both. I know that Tornado's can happen any time of the year . Any idea on the EF category yet?
RE-ally?

LOL

Now dat's not much fo sho'

95L Dvorak Loop

Quoting Skyepony:
95L is up on NOAA RAMMB site.
Oh. Good to know. Thanks.

Me happy. Rainin' in Central Oklahoma.
:)
Quoting AussieStorm:

I was thinking both. I know that Tornado's can happen any time of the year . Any idea on the EF category yet?


Nothing yet from the St. Louis NWS office, I imagine they're going to go out and survey tomorrow morning. I haven't seen photos of the damage itself, so I cannot even guess at this point.
Oklahoma City
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Hmmm.

CLoudsat of the west side of Lawin. Along the bottom, the blue is water, the brown is little islands.
9/25/2012 Okawville, IL Tornado footage

Published on Sep 25, 2012 by bnvn1

New footage in from Okawville, IL tornado. A large tornado with debris east of Okawville, Illinois which is about 35 east south east of Saint Louis, MO.

To license this footage, contact http://www.StormChasingVideo.com

Quoting Slamguitar:
Hmmm.



I don't trust that product. I don't think I've ever seen it NOT show a closed circulation with something.
Now dat's a lightning report with echo.
How ya doin, Pat? Been meaning to give you a call since I heard of your (mis)adventures with Isaac, but I've just been so busy. Hope everything is well with you and your house is back to normal.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't trust that product. I don't think I've ever seen it NOT show a closed circulation with something.


I've been looking at all the sat animations and I just don't see anything resembling what this is showing. So ya, it probably shouldn't be trusted. Plus, we don't even have the normal sat in the area.
TRMM of EWINIAR~ Click pic for very large Quicktime.
Quoting KoritheMan:
How ya doin, Pat? Been meaning to give you a call since I heard of your (mis)adventures with Isaac, but I've just been so busy. Hope everything is well with you and your house is back to normal.


Issac relief was challenging, then I had a fall.

I'm home and resting well after quite an extended er, "Hip cation".




Hospitals and re-hab was phun, but dere's no place like Home.

Wunderground.com

Thanx for the words Kori.

U da man.

Quoting Patrap:


Issac relief was challenging, then I had a fall.

I'm home and resting well after quite an extended er, "Hip cation".




Hospitals and re-hab was phun, but dere's no place like Home.

Wunderground.com



We're very glad to have you back, Pat. This place just wouldn't be the same without you. Seriously.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't trust that product. I don't think I've ever seen it NOT show a closed circulation with something.


Even it is showing sloppier than usual but atleast it plots where it is. Though may as well just use track history..
Seems to be doin' fine here post Issac.

Lurking has been a kinda well, different view.


I may write a Thesis on it actually.

: )
I'm 3 minutes past my Teresa imposed Bedtime curfew so I'll check in here tomorrow and rattle da masses.

It is a adventure ya know?

Night Kori, everyone saddled in late here as well.
Quoting Patrap:
I'm 2 minutes past my Teresa imposed Bedtime curfew so I'll check in here tomorrow and rattle da masses.

It is a adventure ya know?


Night, buddy.
Doesn't look near that pretty on Windsat & more of a partial....

Quoting Skyepony:


Though may as well just use track history..


Pretty much.
Quoting Patrap:
9/25/2012 Okawville, IL Tornado footage


We had some rip snortin' storms in St. Louis tonight. I work in southwest St. Louis, and commute 30 miles north and west across the Missouri River into St. Charles county to get home. Drove home in a dry slot between storms and made it to within 2 miles from home when the sky just opened up on me. Had some hail coming down, not too big though, and was pretty sure I saw a funnel cloud drop down for a few minutes, but it lifted back up again. I could only see it when lightning flashed, but the lightning was nearly continuous. Sat in my car when I got home for a minute or so, trying to decide if I wanted to wait it out or make a dash for the door... got a slight lessening of the rain so i made the dash. Just as I was closing the door there was a massive crack of lightning that hit the tree across the street from me and scared a yip outta me! hahaha
I don't generally yip. ;)
ASCAT 95L


Keep healing Pat..
Quoting angelafritz:


Nothing yet from the St. Louis NWS office, I imagine they're going to go out and survey tomorrow morning. I haven't seen photos of the damage itself, so I cannot even guess at this point.

ok thanks :-)
Fresh Nadine OSCAT
NHC has had plenty of time to mention any concern with 95L, latest Atlantic TWO still says nothing. Seems to be more of an exercise or test...at most an area of vague, unfocused interest.
So Nadine looks like it can last as much as 4 weeks in the middle of nowhere trying to find it's identity and Mirimam looks like it can die in like a day or so maybe later.I can't to see what happens if Nadine breaks the longest a tropical storm survived record.
ASCAT & such looks better than satellite with 95L. Maybe an exercise in caution with the way GOES-14 is distorting the appearance of the clouds.
Nadine
Quoting mo999999999:
So Nadine looks like it can last as much as 4 weeks in the middle of nowhere trying to find it's identity and Mirimam looks like it can die in like a day or so maybe later.I can't to see what happens if Nadine breaks the longest a tropical storm survived record.


Models are coming into better agreement that it won't.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Models are coming into better agreement that it won't.


I would love for it to break the record, but it will have to eventually die in the next seven dahs.
Goodnight...GFS 120 hrs. showing a storm detaching from a front and forming in the western Gulf.

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


We had some rip snortin' storms in St. Louis tonight. I work in southwest St. Louis, and commute 30 miles north and west across the Missouri River into St. Charles county to get home. Drove home in a dry slot between storms and made it to within 2 miles from home when the sky just opened up on me. Had some hail coming down, not too big though, and was pretty sure I saw a funnel cloud drop down for a few minutes, but it lifted back up again. I could only see it when lightning flashed, but the lightning was nearly continuous. Sat in my car when I got home for a minute or so, trying to decide if I wanted to wait it out or make a dash for the door... got a slight lessening of the rain so i made the dash. Just as I was closing the door there was a massive crack of lightning that hit the tree across the street from me and scared a yip outta me! hahaha
I don't generally yip. ;)
Sounds scary, glad you are ok.
Looking for clues...



95L Floater with latest mean sea level pressure analysis overlay.
OSCAT of the wave ~55W
Nice little upslope system for us tonight. Been raining steady at ~8,100' for a couple hours now - rain is coming down as snow just one or two thousand feet up...



EDIT - I notice the "eye" of the storm seems to be moving slightly NW.
Quoting mo999999999:


I would love for it to break the record, but it will have to eventually die in the next seven dahs.


I wanted it to make 100 advisories. Good thing I don't control the weather, lol. My zone manager at Walmart already thinks I'm evil for wishing Isaac to Louisiana for a hurricane chase. :)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Goodnight...GFS 120 hrs. showing a storm detaching from a front and forming in the western Gulf.



It's been showing that for the last 8 or so runs now. Definitely something to watch.
JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 220 km/hr

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed September 26, 2012
Location of Eye: 17.3%uFFFD N Lat 126.6%uFFFD E Lon
Distance 1: 447 km (ENE) closer to Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 494 km (ENE) away from Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 510 km (E) closer to Ilagan City
Distance 4: 521 km (ESE) closer to Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 484 km (ESE) closer to Sta. Ana, Cagayan
Distance 6: 582 km (SE) closer to Calayan Island
Distance 7: 600 km (SE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 665 km (NE) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 260 kph (140 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Taiwan-Ishigaki Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 47 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft [>5.5 m]

SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 252140Z CORIOLIS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
AS WELL AS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS. RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
A 252359Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A SINGLE CONTINUOUS RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE, SUGGESTING THAT ANY RESTRUCTURING OF THE
EYEWALL THAT MAY HAVE TAKEN PLACE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IS NEARLY
COMPLETE. STY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.









Jelawat is one powerful cyclone
El Nino stalls but Indian Ocean keeps Australia dry


The central Pacific Ocean has cooled during the past few weeks, shifting closer to neutral and further away from El Nino, but dry weather still persists over much of Australia due to a positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD).

A positive IOD is the Indian Ocean's version of El Nino with cooler tropical sea surface temperatures on Australia's side and warmer waters on the African side. This reduces evaporation and the convective transportation of moisture off our northwest coast, which eventually reduces rainfall through central and south-eastern Australia.

Across the Pacific the threat of El Nino has lingered since early winter but indicators have relaxed during the past few weeks including sea surface temperatures which have dropped from El Nino levels to currently lie near neutral thresholds. Other indicators are well within neutral ranges including trade winds, cloud cover and the Southern Oscillation Index.

Computer models predict both the positive IOD and Pacific waters near El Nino thresholds will persist through the remainder of spring which favours below average rain for much of Australia.
Alice Springs eyes possible end to record dry spell


It has been 155 days since rain was last picked up in Alice Springs, but the town now has a real chance of breaking its longest dry spell on record over coming days.

The last time it rained in Alice Springs was before Anzac Day on 24th April with the thirsty town since then trudging through day after day of blue skies.

A change is however looking increasingly hopeful with Alice Springs now forecast to see partly cloudy conditions through Wednesday give way to a possible gusty shower or thunderstorm, either evening or overnight.

A low-pressure trough extending over the region is drawing moisture from the tropics, and this trough is expected to interact with an approaching cold-front tracking further south, bringing the chance of rainfall for the area.


Thursday too brings the chance of a possible early gusty storm in Alice Springs with Friday then expected to bring a possible shower or storm before Saturday comes with light rain clearing through the day.

Over the next eight days, widespread falls of 1-5mm are on the forecast for almost all of the Northern Territory, with heavier falls further north and north-west of Alice Springs.

A dramatic drop in temperatures are also expected, with Alice Springs expected to more from its forecast high of 36˚C tomorrow to just a maximum of 25˚C come Saturday.
Morning all, been some bad flooding here in the UK from the daughter of Nadine (Karin). The BBC has recorded more than 300 properties that have been flooded, with some areas having more than their average September rainfall in 24 hours. Apparently it is the most intense September storm to hit the UK in 30 years:

Link

The Environment Agency has still got 75 flood warnings and 122 flood alerts across the whole country, predominantly for the northeast, northwest and the midlands:

Link

It's not been too bad for me in the south east/east of England, but people who I know in Newcastle have had a bad time of it.
Mornin' gang!

Good afternoon Aussie!
Did you know that it's afternoon (6:05PM) here in S. Korea too?
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Did you know that it's afternoon (6:05PM) here in S. Korea too?


well.... good afternoon to you too sir!
Good morning folks..love the coolness in the mornings now..
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' gang!

Good afternoon Aussie!

Good Evening
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
301 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 254 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. AREAS FROM THE CLINTON-WASHINGTON COUNTY BORDER INTO
SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY WERE WERE HIT BY OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN
TUESDAY EVENING...AND THIS PREDAWN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TRACKING
OVER THE SAME AREA. WHILE THE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS WHAT FELL TUESDAY EVENING...IT WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CROOKED CREEK NEAR HOFFMAN IS AT 12.9 FEET AT LAST REPORT...FLOOD
STAGE IS 12 FEET. IN ADDITION...THE EAST FORK OF THE KASKASIA
RIVER IN MARION COUNTY IS AT 16 FEET...FLOOD STAGE IS 14 FEET.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BREESE...CARLYLE...CENTRALIA...SALEM...BECKEMEYER. ..BOULDER...
CENTRAL CITY...FAIRMAN...GERMANTOWN...HELM...IRVINGTON...
JAMESTOWN...KINMUNDY...ODIN...OKAWVILLE...OMEGA... PATOKA...
SANDOVAL...SHATTUC...ST. ROSE...STEPHEN FORBES STATE PARK AND
WAMAC.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 57 FROM EXIT 109 TO EXIT 127.
INTERSTATE 64 NEAR EXIT 61.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

Morning all, evening Aussie. Another day of waking up to 70 degrees and up to 90 later. Still summer here in Louisiana.
Quoting guygee:
Looking for clues...



95L Floater with latest mean sea level pressure analysis overlay.

See NOTHING AGAIN
Quoting AussieStorm:

So you've forgotten about Super Typhoon Sanba?

I remember Sanba. Both incredible typhoons, but I do prefer Jelawat.
Quoting Grothar:


I don't think an invest should be declared until it is at least a Category 3. Whoever heard of a naked swirl ever becoming anything.

When you say it is a blob it should be then called an invest. :)
Quoting Ameister12:

I remember Sanba. Both incredible typhoons, but I do prefer Jelawat.

Any reason in particular? Just curious.
Quoting whitewabit:
95L


Where?
95L is not anymore.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al952012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209260924
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Good morning. 6z GFS 336 hours:



good morning,
LinkWVLoop Caribbean

850mb vorticity map
Off to a workshop today. Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday!
The 5am EDT advisory package brings Nadine's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) up to 14.6075 units. It will surpass Leslie's 14.7500 units in the next advisory.

The total ACE for the season is up to 88.065 units.
Big rain for TX!!
95L???
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
95L is not anymore.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al952012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209260924
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
95L???
my thoughts exactly
Good morning everyone, I see Nadine is still sticking around, Miriam weakening quickly, and Jelawat at 155mph.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 6z GFS 336 hours:




That would be great for me, but unlikely to happen.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 5am EDT advisory package brings Nadine's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) up to 14.6075 units. It will surpass Leslie's 14.7500 units in the next advisory.

The total ACE for the season is up to 88.065 units.

Yup, if Nadine sticks around long enough she may claim the #1 spot.

Quoting Chicklit:
good morning,
LinkWVLoop Caribbean

850mb vorticity map

I see some vorticity where the 10% area is, there is a small chance of development.
Good morning. Current conditions in Fort Myers FL

Temp 75° (24°C)
Humidity 79%
Wind Speed E 6mph
Barometer 30.03" 1017.1 mb
Dewpoint 60° (20°C)
High today 90, low 71 with a 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms.

We have had no rain for four days. I hope I get me some today.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 26 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MIRIAM...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

443. VR46L
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Good morning. Current conditions in Fort Myers FL

Temp 75° (24°C)
Humidity 79%
Wind Speed E 6mph
Barometer 30.03" 1017.1 mb
Dewpoint 60° (20°C)
High today 90, low 71 with a 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms.

We have had no rain for four days. I hope I get me some today.


You can have some of mine Ftmyersgal:) !!!

Link
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning all, evening Aussie. Another day of waking up to 70 degrees and up to 90 later. Still summer here in Louisiana.


Yup. Ready for some 50-60 mornings and 70-75 days. I think Saturday it should cool down a little with the rain chances. Maybe 82 for a high compared to 88-90?
Quoting JasonRE:


Yup. Ready for some 50-60 mornings and 70-75 days. I think Saturday it should cool down a little with the rain chances. Maybe 82 for a high compared to 88-90?

I hope everyone that's complaining about being to hot don't start complaining in January of being to cold.
Geaux Sneaux ?
I don't know what's worse...the fact that Nadine is the only storm around in the Atlantic or the fact that we will be dealing with the storm for another week to week and a half.
Finally! Relative humidity:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
540 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-262200 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
540 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG BAY AND
GULF BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAY STALL JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON



Is the big blob far east of Puerto Rico spinning backwards, or is that a visual product of a very strong inflow vs. outflow?
Quoting AussieStorm:

I hope everyone that's complaining about being to hot don't start complaining in January of being to cold.


You won't hear me complaining about the heat but I think it is quite probable you will hear me complain about the cold, especially since anything under 70 is cold to me :)
Good morning everyone. It looks like a wet start to next week is possible for parts of FL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH SURFACE FEATURES. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE
QUITE COMPLEX AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS IS STILL THE OUTLIER IN SHOWING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND THE 00Z CANADIAN HOLD THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...THE ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...BUT IS OTHERWISE STILL SIMILAR TO THE CMC
WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT DOES SLIP INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF BY TUESDAY BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A RATHER WET
PERIOD OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



Late Fall, Early Winter Outlook


El Nino never fails to dissapoint....or wait, it does. :'(
Super Typhoon Jelawat,

RainBow Loop



Big lull in tropical storm activity in the MDR.apart from a weakening Nadine and an insignificant 95L ENE of the leewards,computer models show very little activity the next 10 days.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Late Fall, Early Winter Outlook


El Nino never fails to dissapoint....or wait, it does. :'(


Colder winter for Florida, yuck.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I hope everyone that's complaining about being to hot don't start complaining in January of being to cold.

Hey, I love it cold and snowy but I'm not too fond of 100F+ heat.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know what's worse...the fact that Nadine is the only storm around in the Atlantic or the fact that we will be dealing with the storm for another week to week and a half.

I choose that we will be dealing with Nadine for at least another week is worse.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Late Fall, Early Winter Outlook


El Nino never fails to dissapoint....or wait, it does. :'(

I don't like that outlook, much warmer for the next 3 months = boring.
Jelawat ain't no jelly roll!
For the Atlantic..."Turn out the lights, the party's over..."
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine is boring.I'm ready for the hurricane season to be over now.




Pretty much is and has
463. VR46L
Yellow Crayola time 10%

Quoting RitaEvac:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine is boring.I'm ready for the hurricane season to be over now.




Pretty much is and has
Maybe a storm or two in October which will bring this season a toal of 16 named storms.Not bad considering it was suppose to be average to below average.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe a storm or two in October which will bring this season a toal of 16 named storms.Not bad considering it was suppose to be average to below average.

This year was supposed to be below average? The NOAA, CSU, and basically anyone with any official statement said it would be an active season, IIRC.
4 more is stretching it but i stand by it might have to duck beer cans and tomatoes soon unless conditions become more favorable.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe a storm or two in October which will bring this season a toal of 16 named storms.Not bad considering it was suppose to be average to below average.

I say we could still 1-2 more storms before the season ends, I am sticking to it.

Quoting jeffs713:

This year was supposed to be below average? The NOAA, CSU, and basically anyone with any official statement said it would be an active season, IIRC.

I thought they predict a slightly below average season.
Quoting islander101010:
4 more is stretching it but i stand by it might have to duck beer cans and tomatoes soon unless conditions become more favorable.

Honestly,,, my feeling is season IS OVER.
Quoting jeffs713:

This year was supposed to be below average? The NOAA, CSU, and basically anyone with any official statement said it would be an active season, IIRC.
CSU predicted 13 named storms which is two storms below the 15 year average of 15 named storms.When forecast were first issued the major forcasters were predicting average to below average activity.They only slightly increased their numbers because Beryl and Alberto formed in May.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I say we could still 1-2 more storms before the season ends, I am sticking to it.


I thought they predict a slightly below average season.

From Dr. Masters' blog on May 24...

"NOAA forecasts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2012, in their May 24 outlook. They give a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 9 - 15 named storms, 4 - 8 hurricanes, and 1 - 3 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 65% - 140% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes."
Link

From the NOAA forecast:
"NOAA’s updated 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a high likelihood (85% chance) of a near- or above-normal season. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 35% chance of an above normal season, and only a 15% chance of a below-normal season. "
Link
we still have October to watch but..we also have to watch for severe local weather huh, the changing seasons always bring Bad weather..plenty to talk about with those kinds of storms, the local ones.
The only storms that stuck out this season are Kirk,Micheal,and Gordon.Chris was a interesting one to.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY AS DEEPENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES MOISTURE UP
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
GREATEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FASTER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ADD
TO THE INSTABILITY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP NORTH OF KISSIMMEE AND COCOA BEACH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
Quoting islander101010:
4 more is stretching it but i stand by it might have to duck beer cans and tomatoes soon unless conditions become more favorable.


I'm thinking 2 more. One in the NW Caribbean and another loner out in the mid-Atlantic.
Quoting washingtonian115:
CSU predicted 13 named storms which is two storms below the 15 year average of 15 named storms.When forecast were first issued the major forcasters were predicting average to below average activity.They only slightly increased their numbers because Beryl and Alberto formed in May.

Kinda changing the goalposts, since the NOAA uses a 30-year average. Statistically, the longer average period is more useful, too.

Heck, if you're going to use a 15-year average, why not a 5-year average (15.4 storms)?

Apples to apples...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG BAY AND
GULF BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The only storms that stuck out this season are Kirk,Micheal,and Gordon.Chris was a interesting one to.


I'm pretty sure Isaac and Ernesto stood out to quite a few people...
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I'm thinking 2 more. One in the NW Caribbean and another loner out in the mid-Atlantic.

I agree with two more, but I'm going to guess one forms off a stalled front, and the other is a loner out in the Atlantic from a cut-off low.
Quoting jeffs713:


I'm pretty sure Isaac and Ernesto stood out to quite a few people...

Especially Isaac with his/my destruction and power.
Quoting jeffs713:


I'm pretty sure Isaac and Ernesto stood out to quite a few people...


yeah, stood out not stuck out.
They stuck in......to land.
Quoting jeffs713:

Kinda changing the goalposts, since the NOAA uses a 30-year average. Statistically, the longer average period is more useful, too.

Heck, if you're going to use a 15-year average, why not a 5-year average (15.4 storms)?

Apples to apples...


9.6 Named storms was the average used just a few years back.....Not sure what the Average is claimed now.....but NO WAY its 15 i would not believe.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


yeah, stood out not stuck out.
They stuck in......to land.

What I was pointing out is that saying the only systems of note for a year are the major hurricanes is rather silly. Weaker storms can easily make just as much, if not more, of an impact. Take for example Isaac... never got to even cat 2, yet left several billion in damage.
Quoting jeffs713:

What I was pointing out is that saying the only systems of note for a year are the major hurricanes is rather silly. Weaker storms can easily make just as much, if not more, of an impact. Take for example Isaac... never got to even cat 2, yet left several billion in damage.

Well Isaac's winds never got to cat2 speed but other factors would have had him higher.
Quoting Patrap:
Super Typhoon Jelawat,

RainBow Loop




Now that's a donut!
Season totals so far:

Houston: 3-0
NOLA: 0-3
Quoting opal92nwf:

Now that's a donut!

To be more specific, a jelly doughnut. Starting to change it's form and I don't think we will see it regain cat5 winds.
Even though the first half of September is active usually, I feel like the month for the most part is a decaying of favorable conditions for tropical cyclones as it always seems that near the end of the month, there are monster troughs and cold air coming in from the NorthWest and the storms that form have a hard time. August is better because it is active and has nowhere to go but more active till the end of the month.
Quoting jeffs713:

What I was pointing out is that saying the only systems of note for a year are the major hurricanes is rather silly. Weaker storms can easily make just as much, if not more, of an impact. Take for example Isaac... never got to even cat 2, yet left several billion in damage.
I don't know what your problem is with me this morning but when I said storms that stuck out as in they were beautiful storms to track that didn't do or hardly did anything to nobody.I said 15 year average because from 1995-2010 we've had some hyperactive season's and if you take the average out of that time span you have 15 named storms.BTW kirk wasn't a major :) and so wasn't Gordon as well as Chris.The only one was Micheal.So your "stuck out only because they were major hurrcanes" was wrong.I know weaker storms can stick out like Fay and Allison.You think I actually forgot about those storms?.Debbie even caused server damage to some places and it was just a 60mph tropical storm.Now next season who is honestly going to be discussing about Ernesto?.Sorry if it sounds mean but it's true.Some people are going to be like "what was that "E" storm from last year?.Maybe Isaac but that's about all.Now before I get banned I'm going to get off now.They even mentioned the "15 year average" thing on TWC site and other weather sites.
For Texas Residents:

Widespread rainfall event increasingly likely this weekend


Ingredients continue to come together for a period of wet weather from Friday-Sunday. Moisture is returning to SE TX this morning as noted by the isolated inland moving showers on radar over the coastal waters into the coastal and inland first tier counties. These showers appear to be in response to a sliver of higher moisture being transported northward on increased southerly flow of the past 48 hours. With a little heating this morning expected a continuation of these showers today.


Of more importance is the late week period into the weekend as parameters are coming together to produce a potential widespread rainfall event. Low pressure formation ahead of a deepening SW US trough will help transports low level tropical moisture over the southern Gulf of Mexico northward into the region starting Thursday. May see slightly better rain chances on Thursday than currently being indicated, but the better chances should hold off until Friday when the tropical moisture reaches the area. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms on Friday pulling northward off the western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, mid and high level moisture is already spreading NE across MX into TX from EPAC tropical system Miriam. This moisture along with the increasing Gulf moisture will become entrained in the slow moving trough producing widespread rainfall from SW TX into E TX over the weekend.



Surface frontal boundary currently over NW TX will only slowly drag SE over the next 2 days and gradually enter the area early Saturday…more importantly this boundary adds a focus for deep convection that was largely absent yesterday in the model guidance. This change does raise some concern for more significant rainfall over the weekend as the slow moving trough, a slow moving surface boundary, saturated air column, and extremely high moisture levels (PWS 2.2-2.4 inches) all combine to produce some very heavy rainfall. Still not overly confident on where the heavy rains will set up although the southern half of TX appears to be in the best location south of the 250mb jet streak and near/south of the surface boundary. The “tropical like” air column will support some very heavy rainfall rates in a short period of time and this will need to be watched especially if any cell training or slow storm motions are noted. Would not at all be surprised to see some 2-3 inch per hour rainfall rates with this set up. Models are really keying in on Saturday afternoon-Sunday morning as the best time for organized heavy rainfall spreading from SW to NE across the region.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Honestly,,, my feeling is season IS OVER.
The problem with this assumption was that the same thing happened in July. I expect activity to pick back up in October. I predict 4 more storms.