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Nadine goes extratropical; the Atlantic is quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2012

For the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center is not issuing advisories on an active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic. On Friday, Tropical Storm Nadine finally transitioned to an extratropical storm, due to cool waters and the influence of an upper-level low. The final fate of Nadine is very uncertain; the extratropical version of Nadine is expected to meander between the Azores Islands and Europe for at least a week, and could potentially become a tropical storm again. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the ex-Nadine a 40% chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone by Monday morning.

We've been in a relatively quiet period in the Atlantic for over a week now, and the computer models predict that this quiet period will last at least another week. The quiet period is primarily due to the fact that the African Monsoon has been less active, and there are fewer tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. Even the busiest hurricane season has quiet periods like this, and we should not assume that hurricane season is over. The first two weeks of October are typically a busy period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and I expect that we'll see one or two more names storms in the Atlantic before October 15.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Ex-Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:05 am EDT Saturday, September 22, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jelawat a threat to the Philippine Islands
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Jelawat threatens to become the most dangerous typhoon of the year for the Philippine Islands. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the islands, and is expected to move slowly to the northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. Wind shear is moderate 5 - 15 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 4 typhoon by Tuesday. Satellite loops show that Jelawat is becoming more organized, with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. The long-range path of Jelawat is very uncertain; the 00Z ECMWF model takes the storm over the northern end of Luzon Island in the Philippines on Wednesday, while the latest 12Z run of the GFS model keep the storm several hundred miles east of the Philippines through Wednesday.


Figure 2. IR satellite image of Jelawat taken at 12:30 pm EDT Saturday, September 22, 2012.

I'll have a new post on Monday at the latest. Happy first day of fall!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!

Just one minor spelling error I managed to run across:

"The first two weeks of October are typically a busy period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and I expect that we'll see one or two more names storms in the Atlantic before October 15."
Thanks Dr. Masters!:)
Thanks Doc, have a nice weekend!
Thank you Dr. Masters
For the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center is not issuing advisories on an active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.

I approve this message.
thanks :)
As another poster pointed out, the US has reduced its carbon emissions considerably. Your point about China is moot, since we have no way whatsoever of influencing China's emissions policies. If you're intellectually honest, you should also admit that the AGW crowd should wholeheartedly embrace nuclear power. That would be a win/win in that nuclear produces no greenhouse gasses, yet can easily meet increasing energy needs going forward - without littering vast swaths of natural landscape with windmills and solar panels. Nuclear is also a strategic technology in terms of civilization in general, and space travel in particular. I hope the nuclear powered Curiosity probe is a harbinger of a more pro-nuclear future. The risks associated with nuclear are small, and should be considered versus the over 200,000 annual deaths associated with fossil fuel power production. If AGW is a real threat, nuclear is a no-brainer. Choose. (Perhaps LENR will prove more palatable if it works out - but it will lead to the same high-intensity desirable outcome.)



Nobody would use "vast arrays of solar panels," because solar boilers, of both the parabolic trough type and the tower type, are thrice as efficient and cost less (for larger operations).

The fact you think a large scale operation would use panels just shows you don't have up-to-date information on the techniques employed in the field.

Panels are good for rooftop installations because they are light and don't take up much space, etc.

They are not good for large scale commerical or industrial applications because they have much lower efficiency than the boilers, and they cost at least as much or more. Since you also need to buy land to put a power plant on, maximum spacial efficiency and maximum thermodynamic efficiency are desired, and the boilers have that hands down.

In order for panels to compete, they really would need to be roughly 3 times as efficient as they are now, although they may win out in some locations where the sunlight isn't powerful enough or consistent enough to run the concentrated boilers, but that isn't the case in much of the western U.S.


Wind and solar are cheaper, safer, cleaner, and easier to maintain than nuclear power, and obviously don't have any significantly harmful waste products. Additionally, they require nowhere near as much concrete per unit energy, because a nuke plant needs enormous amounts of shielding, structural integrity, and contingency facilities.
"The first two weeks of October are typically a busy period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and I expect that we'll see one or two more names storms in the Atlantic before October 15."
I hope so, wishing them to come and visit us in the northern leewards islands...not like little systems disorganised, but like real storms!
Re: objectivist 1490 (last blog)

How is it possible to generalize about the historical extent/volume of Arctic ocean ice from a few spot measurements? The Arctic Ocean is just that - an ocean, with all the fluid dynamics that entails. Sure there's going to be variable ice thickness and polynyas year-round. So what? You haven't made any point except that you're familiar with at least one type of sea-life: red herrings.
Thanks it'll be interesting seeing what the next two storms do
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters and thanks for giving us this comments section in which to, generally, speak our minds freely.

There is a level of admin control which in needed on a family-centric forum and a user generated control of content, which also helps deal with grossly inappropriate content quickly. I applaud you and for all the work you have put into WU to make it the success it is, I would like to offer congratulations.
I think Nadine will become a storm again..
thanks for the update doc

have a good first day of fall
Quoting interstatelover7165:
I think Nadine will become a storm again..

I agree.

Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
Even the busiest hurricane season has quiet periods like this..


Except for my good friend Atlantic Hurricane Season 2005.
What's the difference between extropical and subtropical? The Satellite Data Processing and Distribution page has Nadine as Subtropical.

Lat: 30.9 Long: 26.5 CLASSIFICATION: Subtropical ID: 14L NAME: NADINE
Looking forward to October. Thanks Doc!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Except for my good friend Atlantic Hurricane Season 2005.

2005 definitely had a few.



Quoting AussieStorm:
What's the difference between extropical and subtropical? The Satellite Data Processing and Distribution page has Nadine as Subtropical.

Lat: 30.9 Long: 26.5 CLASSIFICATION: Subtropical ID: 14L NAME: NADINE

Extratropical cyclones are non-warm core lows that are usually connected to a frontal boundary of some sort. A subtropical cyclone is partially warm core, meaning it displays both tropical and extratropical characteristics.
Quoting AussieStorm:
What's the difference between extropical and subtropical? The Satellite Data Processing and Distribution page has Nadine as Subtropical.

Lat: 30.9 Long: 26.5 CLASSIFICATION: Subtropical ID: 14L NAME: NADINE
Subtropical is a hybrid of an extratropical and tropical cyclone.
Afternoon everybody.... and it is a lovely day here in Nassau, especially after the downpours of yesterday evening ....

I see the Friday night blog was poppin'....

Quoting Skyepony:



The aloofa joke was dead form the get go..comparing it to a sponge. & on a SCIENCE blog.. Sponges grow in the sea. Loofahs grow on a vine, on land & are what we used before plastic scrubbies came along. Loofahs actually make better scrubbies, they are less gross & last much longer. They would make a terrible sponge. & they are edible & tastey if harvested when small..almost squash like.

This is yet another example how over the years we've been dumb down into buying plastic derived from oil. I grow one or two plants of them every summer. They love heat, poor soil & abuse. One plant yields more than all the scrubbies you'd need in a year & then some for gifts.

Now here's a Loofah (but not quite ready for pickin)..
Hey, Sky, this is really cool... now I'm wondering if that will grow here in the Bahamas...
Quoting guygee:
Yes, loofahs are wonderful and an excellent alternative to sponges, which are being over harvested and going extinct in many areas.
Sorry for the misunderstanding about the joke, it was not my intention to denigrate loofahs, just to play a pun on words with a cultural reference to the sexual practices of a celebrity who liked to use loofahs for sexual purposes.

That actually is a personal preference and not any of my business, and ultimately not a bad thing at all, a good feature if that is your personal preference, I have no personal preference or opinion either way.

End of topic, end of my night.
Hey.... by raising the topic, u inspired Sky to share about her loofah plant, which in turn has inspired me.... it's all good...

I'll be around this afternoon, but between things 2 to do and great wx, I may not hang around that much... especially since the ATL is relatively quiet for the time being...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Extratropical cyclones are non-warm core lows that are usually connected to a frontal boundary of some sort. A subtropical cyclone is partially warm core, meaning it displays both tropical and extratropical characteristics.


So Nadine is classified as what, Extropical or Subtropical?
As I said, The Satellite Data Processing and Distribution page has Nadine as Subtropical.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

2005 definitely had a few.




Extratropical cyclones are non-warm core lows that are usually connected to a frontal boundary of some sort. A subtropical cyclone is partially warm core, meaning it displays both tropical and extratropical characteristics.
Ex- also has the implication of "former", though technically a former TS is post-tropical.

Did u notice the lull in the three depicted seasons happened around the same time in September?
According to the TV weatherman, here in the UK, the remnants of Nadine will be causing gales and 2" of rain in the south of England tomorrow.

Has he got his tropical storms mixed up? Nadine is way south of there.
Lull in tropics = lull in blog.

Anybody agree that this blog slowdown represents the initial cooldown towards season end? lol

Quoting AussieStorm:


So Nadine is classified as what, Extropical or Subtropical?
As I said, The Satellite Data Processing and Distribution page has Nadine as Subtropical.

It is connected to a front and does not have enough of a warm core to be declared subtropical, so it is extratropical.

NHC does not write advisories on extratropical cyclones, which is why Nadine's last advisory...for the time being...was released at 03Z last night.
Quoting RTSplayer:
As another poster pointed out, the US has reduced its carbon emissions considerably. Your point about China is moot, since we have no way whatsoever of influencing China's emissions policies. If you're intellectually honest, you should also admit that the AGW crowd should wholeheartedly embrace nuclear power. That would be a win/win in that nuclear produces no greenhouse gasses, yet can easily meet increasing energy needs going forward - without littering vast swaths of natural landscape with windmills and solar panels. Nuclear is also a strategic technology in terms of civilization in general, and space travel in particular. I hope the nuclear powered Curiosity probe is a harbinger of a more pro-nuclear future. The risks associated with nuclear are small, and should be considered versus the over 200,000 annual deaths associated with fossil fuel power production. If AGW is a real threat, nuclear is a no-brainer. Choose. (Perhaps LENR will prove more palatable if it works out - but it will lead to the same high-intensity desirable outcome.)



Nobody would use "vast arrays of solar panels," because solar boilers, of both the parabolic trough type and the tower type, are thrice as efficient and cost less (for larger operations).

The fact you think a large scale operation would use panels just shows you don't have up-to-date information on the techniques employed in the field.

Panels are good for rooftop installations because they are light and don't take up much space, etc.

They are not good for large scale commerical or industrial applications because they have much lower efficiency than the boilers, and they cost at least as much or more. Since you also need to buy land to put a power plant on, maximum spacial efficiency and maximum thermodynamic efficiency are desired, and the boilers have that hands down.

In order for panels to compete, they really would need to be roughly 3 times as efficient as they are now, although they may win out in some locations where the sunlight isn't powerful enough or consistent enough to run the concentrated boilers, but that isn't the case in much of the western U.S.


Wind and solar are cheaper, safer, cleaner, and easier to maintain than nuclear power, and obviously don't have any significantly harmful waste products. Additionally, they require nowhere near as much concrete per unit energy, because a nuke plant needs enormous amounts of shielding, structural integrity, and contingency facilities.


There have been similar efficiencies in wind generation too. Now smaller wind turbines are available that can also work in areas where the wind is chaotic and not straight line. They start generating power at lower wind speeds and can handle higher wind speeds as well.

IMHO, There is room for all types of energy generation and I do not necessarily think we should rely on just one. Especially since different type work better in different areas. Let us not forget about hydro-power systems either -- or ones that could utilize ocean tides.

Nuclear, coal, natural gas, fuel oil, PV solar, solar heat/parabolics, wind, water, etc. Should ALL be on the table. In my mind, the goal would be to try to generate as much power as possible using the technologies that create the least amount of harmful byproducts.

Anyways, I hope that we are only tracking "fish" storms the remainder of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few more named storms before the season is over.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Lull in tropics = lull in blog.

Anybody agree that this blog slowdown represents the initial cooldown towards season end? lol

yeah mabye the blogs intensity matches the seasons activity
2 PM EDT TWO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH. WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION
OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Lull in tropics = lull in blog.

Anybody agree that this blog slowdown represents the initial cooldown towards season end? lol

The lull is good for people who need to catch up on other things, we still have all of October left and even November can have some pretty strong storms.
I'll have a new post on Monday at the latest. Happy first day of fall!

Fall has fell
Spiders has riz
I wonder where the punkins is.

The punkins now are on the way
Ain't that just fine
For us to eat Thanksgiving Day.

(With the Wid da boid.)
SHIPS says Sea Surface Temperatures will gradually warm to 27C underneath Post-Tropical Cyclone Nadine by 96 hours. A majority of the model guidance shows the storm approaching hurricane status once again in a few days.
Well at least it's a tropical weather blog...
12z GFS has anything of significance apart from the resurrrection of Nadine. We keep waiting for the models to start showing development in Western Caribbean.

Link
Quoting Cat5hit:


There have been similar efficiencies in wind generation too. Now smaller wind turbines are available that can also work in areas where the wind is chaotic and not straight line. They start generating power at lower wind speeds and can handle higher wind speeds as well.

IMHO, There is room for all types of energy generation and I do not necessarily think we should rely on just one. Especially since different type work better in different areas. Let us not forget about hydro-power systems either -- or ones that could utilize ocean tides.

Nuclear, coal, natural gas, fuel oil, PV solar, solar heat/parabolics, wind, water, etc. Should ALL be on the table. In my mind, the goal would be to try to generate as much power as possible using the technologies that create the least amount of harmful byproducts.

Anyways, I hope that we are only tracking "fish" storms the remainder of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few more named storms before the season is over.



Wind turbines have been erected all over the UK. They're very unpopular here, and considered by many to be a blot on the landscape. I can see about three of them from my house, and the largest windfarm in the UK is just four miles from my house. I think I remember hearing that it was actually the largest in Europe.

Wildlife groups campaign against them as they kill birds. Because of the unreliability of wind, it was estimated that they could only generate about 20% of UK needs. That estimate is beginning to look over optimistic.

Moreover, they require much more maintenance than was anticipated. All in all, it would seem that the green lobby's sales pitch has been about as 'economical with the truth' as a used car salesman's. Electricity generated by wind is a LOT more expensive than fossil fuels.


TROPICAL UPDATE
_______________________

Tropical storm Miriam and Post Tropical Nadine with chance of re-generation



risk-free 4x bigger pic here...
Quoting Grothar:


what if a storm makes it into the Mediterranean??? The NHC would keep tracking it although they have no jurisdiction there...

I know that is difficult to happen in real life...
94L officially dead. Now we wait...
Dead blog.Well I have a birthday party to attend to later today.Looks like tropics are taking a huge dive and definitely showing the season will be ending soon.
(click to enlarge)

Quoting BahaHurican:
A.

I see the Friday night blog was poppin'....

Hey, Sky, this is really cool... now I'm wondering if that will grow here in the Bahamas...
Hey.... by raising the topic, u inspired Sky to share about her loofah plant, which in turn has inspired me.... it's all good...


I was referring back to the joke ..really my bad for not quoting it the first time.

Quoting JNCali:
Q: What do you call a disinterested sponge?
A: Aloofa

It really had nothing to do with Guygee except him & gro were beating the joke to death & in apparently ways I hadn't imagined.. We've wu-mailed, we are good, looked like he had a busy week ahead so if you don't see him..don't think I got him banned..

But yeah on to the loofahs..they'd grow great in the Bahamas. Zone 7 & up you can start them outside in the spring. Zone 5 & 6 can usually get a crop if you start them inside. They are also known as dishrag gourds & that's what the variety I have is, comes from a family friend in Mississippi where it was grown for generations.

Lets save a little oil...If you want Wu-mail me your address & I'll send you some dishrag gourd seeds for next spring. I'll also send some to the first four other addresses that show up in my wu-mail & will comment again when I have five total & the seed share is closed.
Electricity generated by wind is a LOT more expensive than fossil fuels.




Over what time scale did you compute that?

I'm just curious.

You can't buy the coal itself for one year for the price of buying and installing wind turbines of the same output.


Oh yeah, ordinary house cats kill billions of birds per year, and I'm pretty sure we can attribute countless fish and bird kills to the toxins produced by existing coal power plants.

So if anyone feels sorry for a few birds, they should blame the cats and the coal first, as they kill far more birds per year than would the number of wind turbines the world would need.

I have a small breed dog that has killed at least 4 or 5 birds this year too.


We had a small cockateel bird which we got because someone else let it free, and it came to us. We had it for about five years. Whenever he would get out of his cage some times, he'd land on the blades of the ceiling fan while it was still going, or "coasting" sometimes when we stopped it in time.

He never once got hit, even though ceiling fans spin a heck of a lot faster than wind turbines.

If there are any birds being killed by wind turbines, they must be some of the stupidest creatures in existence.
We got no MJO in the Atlantic Basin..
WAHOOOOOO!!!!!! It's Game Day people.

GEAUX TIGERS!!!!!
Skye .. didn't get my seeds from last year ..
MJO is on the way.

I highly recommend this video of an unsual tornado in Heredia, Costa Rica yesterday afternoon.
The video was taken by a guy who was passing through.. He shared it with the local news reporter.

wait for minute 1:50 through 2:36 the worst part



Link
Quoting whitewabit:
Skye .. didn't get my seeds from last year ..


Yea me either..
Oh yeah, you know how the Weather Channel had those programs of the guys going out and inspecting and maintaining the blades on wind turbines?


Yeah, any engineer should have figured out how to automate the majority of those inspections, instead of paying "acrobats" hazard pay to repel out there on a rope.

All it would take is a robot on a light-weight guide wire, with a camera. You could literally make it out of an RC toy and a 5 year old camera phone.


When I saw that program, I was shocked at how STUPID the managers and engineers of the sites actually are. They could save enormous amounts of money if they weren't wasting it all on so much "human-based" cleaning and inspection.

It was one of the first things that came to my mind when I saw it, "Why are humans doing this work, when a small robot can do it cheaper and better?"

an automated cleaning system could be installed on the tower which could give the thing a pressure washing as often as you like, about the only thing you'd need to do is re-fill the water for it to spray, but that's a lot cheaper and easier than paying crane crews and 5 other workers and overseers for each project. And yes, the money saved in labor costs and crane rental or purchase costs would more than pay for each of the type of automatons I'd have in mind.


Anyway, the costs you are talking about, which were also seen on that TWC program, are caused by a failure of imagination and creativity on the parts of owners and engineers.
I was afraid wab would say that..

Aub~ I don't every remembering promising you any.

Get those addresses in there..Wab I've lost yours:)
18z Best Track for Miriam.

EP, 13, 2012092218, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1073W, 35, 1003, TS
Rain coming back!!
Seed share is closed!

More on the fireball across the UK lastnight..

cause of the fireball was not yet clear. “It is a piece of space debris, but whether it is man made or natural is not known,” he said. He said it was too slow for natural debris and was going the wrong direction for man-made debris. “It is probably a space rock that has skidded across the atmosphere.” Meteorites will have been dropped “but whether they landed in Ireland or at sea we will have to figure out”, he said. Witnesses described a trail of seven to 12 fireballs in a straight line across the sky. No sound was to be heard either by witnesses in the city or the countryside. Kielder Observatory in Britain last night reported a sighting of a “huge fireball”
OH MY GOD FINALLY... HOPEFULLY THE GFS WON'T DROM MY HOPES lol

BY THE NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATED THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION...INDUCING A VERY DEEP MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA. STAY TUNED.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Over what time scale did you compute that?

I'm just curious.

You can't buy the coal itself for one year for the price of buying and installing wind turbines of the same output.


Oh yeah, ordinary house cats kill billions of birds per year, and I'm pretty sure we can attribute countless fish and bird kills to the toxins produced by existing coal power plants.

So if anyone feels sorry for a few birds, they should blame the cats and the coal first, as they kill far more birds per year than would the number of wind turbines the world would need.

I have a small breed dog that has killed at least 4 or 5 birds this year too.


We had a small cockateel bird which we got because someone else let it free, and it came to us. We had it for about five years. Whenever he would get out of his cage some times, he'd land on the blades of the ceiling fan while it was still going, or "coasting" sometimes when we stopped it in time.

He never once got hit, even though ceiling fans spin a heck of a lot faster than wind turbines.

If there are any birds being killed by wind turbines, they must be some of the stupidest creatures in existence.

Amazing! You now know how birds think and can identify which ones are stupid. Cats do indeed kill birds, but generally not raptors and large birds of prey.
Link to story about stupid birds
Thanks Dr. Masters, going to be an interesting few weeks.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
For the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center is not issuing advisories on an active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.

I approve this message.


Me too !
Quoting Skyepony:
Seed share is closed!

More on the fireball across the UK lastnight..

cause of the fireball was not yet clear. “It is a piece of space debris, but whether it is man made or natural is not known,” he said. He said it was too slow for natural debris and was going the wrong direction for man-made debris. “It is probably a space rock that has skidded across the atmosphere.” Meteorites will have been dropped “but whether they landed in Ireland or at sea we will have to figure out”, he said. Witnesses described a trail of seven to 12 fireballs in a straight line across the sky. No sound was to be heard either by witnesses in the city or the countryside. Kielder Observatory in Britain last night reported a sighting of a “huge fireball”



They went right over my head, but I was indoors.
I don't know about you guys, but this comes across as a very good thing to me.

wind power cheaper that fossil fuels?

Really, so all that mining and transporting and burning of fossil fuels has no cost? It costs us our health. Which over time can really add up in medical bills. Never mind the volumes of pollution we gain from harvesting fossil fuels. Money is not the only thing measured.
Cameroon authorities have found six more bodies in flood waters, bringing the number killed to as high as 40 in the wake of tropical downpours and the breaching of a dam in the west African country. The inundation in the Far North Region has affected more than 26,000, officials said Thursday, and in neighboring Nigeria at least 15 deaths are blamed on waters rushing into the country from Cameroon's compromised Lagdo Dam on the Benoue River. Cameroon's Communication Minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary has described the flooding as "a calamity" and called for urgent action to save lives and property. Local officials are calling it the worst flood disaster in over 60 years. Water has submerged swaths of the North Region downstream, wiping out homes, farms and livestock, and Cameroon's government has dispatched a military contingency to assist and evacuate victims.

Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh yeah, you know how the Weather Channel had those programs of the guys going out and inspecting and maintaining the blades on wind turbines?


Yeah, any engineer should have figured out how to automate the majority of those inspections, instead of paying "acrobats" hazard pay to repel out there on a rope.

All it would take is a robot on a light-weight guide wire, with a camera. You could literally make it out of an RC toy and a 5 year old camera phone.


When I saw that program, I was shocked at how STUPID the managers and engineers of the sites actually are. They could save enormous amounts of money if they weren't wasting it all on so much "human-based" cleaning and inspection.

It was one of the first things that came to my mind when I saw it, "Why are humans doing this work, when a small robot can do it cheaper and better?"

an automated cleaning system could be installed on the tower which could give the thing a pressure washing as often as you like, about the only thing you'd need to do is re-fill the water for it to spray, but that's a lot cheaper and easier than paying crane crews and 5 other workers and overseers for each project. And yes, the money saved in labor costs and crane rental or purchase costs would more than pay for each of the type of automatons I'd have in mind.


Anyway, the costs you are talking about, which were also seen on that TWC program, are caused by a failure of imagination and creativity on the parts of owners and engineers.


I take it you must be both a licensed PE and a manager to be able to pass a sweeping judgement about how stupid and unimaginative they seem to be. Surely, given your vast store of knowledge about wind turbine operations, you must be working as a consultant to solve these problem and help those with less imagination than you to be able to see the light. BTW, the word is "rapel", and there are good reasons why humans need to see turbines and turbine blades close up and even feel the blade surfaces. Since I only worked as a consultant for a company with one of the largest wind farms in the USA, what would I know though?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know about you guys, but this comes across as a very good thing to me.



It will be difficult, but as long as we dont see any more landfallig TCs we have a chance of setting a record low...
A big fall tornado outbreak would destroy that possibility:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know about you guys, but this comes across as a very good thing to me.


That's for sure. I don't know how the environment works in regards to tornadoes, but it seems that years with large outbreaks of tornadoes, especially the super tornado outbreaks of April, 2011, tend to be followed by years of lower than average tornadoes. I don't know what the November secondary peak in Alabama and the spring of 2013 holds, but I hope I never see another year like 2011
I can't believe ATCF has kept Miriam at 35kts. Pretty much everything suggests its at least 40kts, maybe more.




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 SEP 2012 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 14:01:21 N Lon : 107:57:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.8mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.1

22/1800 UTC 14.4N 107.2W T3.0/3.0 MIRIAM -- East Pacific
Happy fall everybody, hope you can get back up quickly.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I can't believe ATCF has kept Miriam at 35kts. Pretty much everything suggests its at least 40kts, maybe more.




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 SEP 2012 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 14:01:21 N Lon : 107:57:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.8mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.1

22/1800 UTC 14.4N 107.2W T3.0/3.0 MIRIAM -- East Pacific


Also,it has not moved much for the past few hours.
Quoting sheople:
wind power cheaper that fossil fuels?

Really, so all that mining and transporting and burning of fossil fuels has no cost? It costs us our health. Which over time can really add up in medical bills. Never mind the volumes of pollution we gain from harvesting fossil fuels. Money is not the only thing measured.


Unfortunately, the fake paper economy the world uses only rewards people for making "dollars," which is why our "economy" is anything but "economical."
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wow i didnt realize it was this bad:

The U.S. Suffered Its Worst Airpower Loss Since Vietnam Last Week and No One Really Noticed


Rather amazing that the iPhone5's crummy maps make front page news while this gets buried in the back pages and on blogs.
Quoting sar2401:


Rather amazing that the iPhone5's crummy maps make front page news while this gets buried in the back pages and on blogs.


With iPhone 5s crummy maps, people could'nt find where they needed to get to to get stories like this on front page news. :)
In my opinion specially this time of year I believe something is trying to going on south of Western Cuba,this pattern of rain for so many days from a stalled front usually end up in some type of development and if my eyes are not lying to me looking at the Gulf of Mexico Rainbow loop,I believe we can see a hint of a twist in that area,I will be not surprise to see a tropical system coming up out of this mess.
Quoting Skyepony:
Seed share is closed!

More on the fireball across the UK lastnight..

cause of the fireball was not yet clear. %u201CIt is a piece of space debris, but whether it is man made or natural is not known,%u201D he said. He said it was too slow for natural debris and was going the wrong direction for man-made debris. %u201CIt is probably a space rock that has skidded across the atmosphere.%u201D Meteorites will have been dropped %u201Cbut whether they landed in Ireland or at sea we will have to figure out%u201D, he said. Witnesses described a trail of seven to 12 fireballs in a straight line across the sky. No sound was to be heard either by witnesses in the city or the countryside. Kielder Observatory in Britain last night reported a sighting of a %u201Chuge fireball%u201D

Skye, if I wasn't living on the road in my motorhome, I would have loved to try growing some of your seeds. They just don't do well planted on the roof though. :)

That story makes me wonder how many "space rocks" are out there we can't see and how big they would have to be to be catastrophic, at least on a local scale. Even with the AGW concerns, I sure hope someone is taking a look at such things.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
In my opinion specially this time of year I believe something is trying to going on south of Western Cuba,this pattern of rain for so many days from a stalled front usually end up in some type of development and if my eyes are not lying to me looking at the Gulf of Mexico Rainbow loop,I believe we can see a hint of a twist in that area,I will be not surprise to see a tropical system coming up out of this mess.


Well, if you're right, the NHC should put you on the payroll. That would be a dream job - sitting at your computer looking for early stage cyclogenesis and getting paid for it!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know about you guys, but this comes across as a very good thing to me.


I am happy we have had a quiet tornado season, less damage and deaths.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I agree.


I think Nadine could regenerate, with her past I would not be surprised.
My goodness, has this quote been verified by Snopes.com?

"It will without doubt have come to your Lordship's knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.

(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations."
President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817



Clamshill gives a quote from

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/01/a-short-ant hology-of-changing-climate/

and asks if it's true....

significant of?
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, if you're right, the NHC should put you on the payroll. That would be a dream job - sitting at your computer looking for early stage cyclogenesis and getting paid for it!
I don't appreciate at all!!!!!!! your comments!!!!!, I can see you are new to this blog!,and probably with nothing else to do!!,this is a weather related blog and everybody is entitled to their opinion specially the serious people that comes to this weather site for information!!!,so please stop and go and see some tv football games!!!!!!.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Clamshill gives a quote from

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/01/a-short-ant hology-of-changing-climate/

and asks if it's true....

significant of?


First of all I did not get it from that site and secondly the question was from me asking if it was a true statement.

The quote itself was attributed to the following..."President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817"

Either it is a true and accurate quote or it is not.

Even Donald Duck ought to be allowed to provide us with a quote and we should be able to intellectually verify it from other sources.

So, are you capable of answering the question or not?


Watching the showers rolling in, got to go for a bit.
Tropical Storm Miriam remains organized.

Quoting Hurricane1956:
I don't appreciate at all!!!!!!! your comments!!!!!, I can see you are new to this blog!,and probably with nothing else to do!!,this is a weather related blog and everybody is entitled to their opinion specially the serious people that comes to this weather site for information!!!,so please stop and go and see some tv football games!!!!!!.


For goodness sake! What brought that on? My reply was a light hearted response to your post.

And your 'observations' about my 'newness' to this blog are well wide of the mark. I've been here for 4 years and have contributed 990 comments - about three times more than you have.

I've had a look (on visible) at where you were looking and don't see any spin.
Quoting Civicane49:
Tropical Storm Miriam remains organized.


Appears to be an eyewall building. This is no 40 mph tropical storm. More like 50-60 mph.
Quoting clamshell:
My goodness, has this quote been verified by Snopes.com?

"It will without doubt have come to your Lordship's knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.

(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations."
President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817




The quote is factual and can be found in The Minutes of Council, Volume 8. pp.149-153, 1817. It was in response to a request from the British Admiralty about the possibility of ice free navigation of the fabled "Northwest Passage", which had strategic importance to the British Navy at the time. The US and Britain were still engaged in an active dispute about the borders between the US and Canada, a British territory at the time. Both sides were quite bellicose, and military action was not out of the question. If the British Navy could move warships from British to Pacific bases without having to go round the Horn, which would significantly decrease transit times, it would allow them to station less ships in the Pacific but still get ships to the disputed Pacific border in time if war broke out. Other than trying to understand the history of the quote, I have no idea what Sir Joseph Banks was seeing in terms of climate change at the time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Appears to be an eyewall building. This is no 40 mph tropical storm. More like 50-60 mph.


I agree.
The National Weather Service In Miami Has Issued A

* Flash Flood Warning For...
A Large Portion Of Metropolitan Miami-Dade County In Southeast
Florida.
Quoting sar2401:


I take it you must be both a licensed PE and a manager to be able to pass a sweeping judgement about how stupid and unimaginative they seem to be. Surely, given your vast store of knowledge about wind turbine operations, you must be working as a consultant to solve these problem and help those with less imagination than you to be able to see the light. BTW, the word is "rapel", and there are good reasons why humans need to see turbines and turbine blades close up and even feel the blade surfaces. Since I only worked as a consultant for a company with one of the largest wind farms in the USA, what would I know though?


I used to work quality in a company with highly automated processes for inspection.

This can definitely be done with camera phone and an RC toy.


If you don't think this is possible, I advise visiting an automated production facility or automated warehouse to take a look at the various types of machines and concepts which could be adapted to do this work. Also, visit an automated car wash for God's sake and look around.

This isn't revolutionary, it's piss easy, and doesn't even require a lot of equipment.

In fact, with a scheme I thought of while typing this, about the only think you really need is a control sensor, one or two servos, and the pressure washer itself. The fact that the nacelle turns with the changing wind direction allows you to get full radial coverage "eventually" throughout a decent time frame, so long as each possible angle gets cleaned often enough, which will happen on average anyway.

This would be a joke for the company I used to work for, and that's not an understatement. The engineers there would laugh at how easy this is.

You can literally do most of the cleaning without even shutting down the turbine if you had an automated system like I have in mind.
Quoting Civicane49:
Tropical Storm Miriam remains organized.

A hurricane in the making.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Unfortunately, the fake paper economy the world uses only rewards people for making "dollars," which is why our "economy" is anything but "economical."

If you have any of those fake paper "dollars" you don't need, I'll be happy to take them off your hands and recycle them for you. :)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I can't believe ATCF has kept Miriam at 35kts. Pretty much everything suggests its at least 40kts, maybe more.




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 SEP 2012 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 14:01:21 N Lon : 107:57:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.8mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.1

22/1800 UTC 14.4N 107.2W T3.0/3.0 MIRIAM -- East Pacific
maybe they will ignore ATCF files and put it at 40 or45 knots.
Recent burst of convection is near the center of post-tropical cyclone Nadine. There is still a possibility that it could regenerate in the next few days.

Quoting Civicane49:
Recent burst of convection is near the center of post-tropical cyclone Nadine. There is still a possibility that it could regenerate in the next few days.


I don't see any reason whatsoever why it wouldn't. Sea Surface Temperatures are expected to warm to 27C by 96 hours. Most of the model guidance takes it back up near hurricane status as a fully tropical cyclone around that time. I wouldn't doubt it.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I used to work quality in a company with highly automated processes for inspection.

This can definitely be done with camera phone and an RC toy.


If you don't think this is possible, I advise visiting an automated production facility or automated warehouse to take a look at the various types of machines and concepts which could be adapted to do this work. Also, visit an automated car wash for God's sake and look around.

This isn't revolutionary, it's piss easy, and doesn't even require a lot of equipment.

In fact, with a scheme I thought of while typing this, about the only think you really need is a control sensor, one or two servos, and the pressure washer itself. The fact that the nacelle turns with the changing wind direction allows you to get full radial coverage "eventually" throughout a decent time frame, so long as each possible angle gets cleaned often enough, which will happen on average anyway.

This would be a joke for the company I used to work for, and that's not an understatement. The engineers there would laugh at how easy this is.

You can literally do most of the cleaning without even shutting down the turbine if you had an automated system like I have in mind.

Even though I think you are seriously underestimating the complexity of turbine and rotor inspection and maintenance, why don't you work out your plan and get a patent? Since you apparently worked for a company with the only really smart engineers on the planet, I can imagine they would help you with the patent for a small share of the profits. I can assure you that, if what you propose would meet EPA and FERC regulations and guidelines, and reduce costs significantly, energy companies that use wind turbines would snap it up and give lots of those fake paper dollars.
Because of all the heavy rains this morning and the previous saturated ground here in Palm Beach county the ants are climbing "UP". I went out and check the mailbox a little bit ago... There was exactly 2,127 little ants inside the box (give or take 1 or 2) It was disgusting.
Quoting Skyepony:


I was referring back to the joke ..really my bad for not quoting it the first time.

Quoting JNCali:
Q: What do you call a disinterested sponge?
A: Aloofa

It really had nothing to do with Guygee except him & gro were beating the joke to death & in apparently ways I hadn't imagined.. We've wu-mailed, we are good, looked like he had a busy week ahead so if you don't see him..don't think I got him banned..

But yeah on to the loofahs..they'd grow great in the Bahamas. Zone 7 & up you can start them outside in the spring. Zone 5 & 6 can usually get a crop if you start them inside. They are also known as dishrag gourds & that's what the variety I have is, comes from a family friend in Mississippi where it was grown for generations.

Lets save a little oil...If you want Wu-mail me your address & I'll send you some dishrag gourd seeds for next spring. I'll also send some to the first four other addresses that show up in my wu-mail & will comment again when I have five total & the seed share is closed.
Now that's what I call friendship... lol... thanks, Skye, will wumail right now...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Because of all the heavy rains this morning and the previous saturated ground here in Palm Beach county the ants are climbing "UP". I went out and check the mailbox a little bit ago... There was exactly 2,127 little ants inside the box (give or take 1 or 2) It was disgusting.


Disgusting? Well, it's all relative. Nirvana for an aardvark.
Quoting sar2401:

Amazing! You now know how birds think and can identify which ones are stupid. Cats do indeed kill birds, but generally not raptors and large birds of prey.
Link to story about stupid birds
The little I've read about the alleged bird killing seems to suggest turbine-related deaths are most likely among birds which are large-scale gliders, i.e. relying on thermals and updrafts etc. I suppose turbines could potentially cause sufficient disruption in wind patterns to cause such birds to become discombobulated...
Quoting sar2401:

The quote is factual and can be found in The Minutes of Council, Volume 8. pp.149-153, 1817. It was in response to a request from the British Admiralty about the possibility of ice free navigation of the fabled "Northwest Passage", which had strategic importance to the British Navy at the time. The US and Britain were still engaged in an active dispute about the borders between the US and Canada, a British territory at the time. Both sides were quite bellicose, and military action was not out of the question. If the British Navy could move warships from British to Pacific bases without having to go round the Horn, which would significantly decrease transit times, it would allow them to station less ships in the Pacific but still get ships to the disputed Pacific border in time if war broke out. Other than trying to understand the history of the quote, I have no idea what Sir Joseph Banks was seeing in terms of climate change at the time.


Thank you very much for you quick response..

Personally, I think they saw the open water as a short-cut to making business connections without having to circumnavigate the long way around. Think about the time saved and the increase in round trips per year that open water at the pole might mean to them.


This is why the NHC plans to stick with 35 knots at 2pm PDT.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Happy fall everybody, hope you can get back up quickly.


Still waiting for some genuinely cool weather here...

Quoting Hurricane1956:
I don't appreciate at all!!!!!!! your comments!!!!!, I can see you are new to this blog!,and probably with nothing else to do!!,this is a weather related blog and everybody is entitled to their opinion specially the serious people that comes to this weather site for information!!!,so please stop and go and see some tv football games!!!!!!.
Uh.... I have a feeling he really meant it about that being a dream job... in a literal kinda way... and yonza isn't that new...
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...MIRIAM GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 107.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESETNATION OF MIRIAM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THERE ARE NOW SEVERAL CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO
AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT
PASS FROM AROUND 1730 UTC SUGGESTED THAT MIRIAM WAS NOT AS STRONG
AS EARLIER SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATED...SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE OF
30 KT WIND VECTORS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE IMPROVING
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
MIRIAM APPEARS POISED FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH SOME SIGNS OF A
DEVELOPING INNER CORE AND A TRACK OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS THAN A 25-KT INCREASE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LIKELY AND A 30-KT INCREASE IS ABOUT A 50/50
PROPOSITION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED IN
THE SHORT RANGE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND
CLOSE TO THE HWRF THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MIRIAM WILL
BE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION FROM
THE LAST ADVISORY. DUE TO THE RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN 300/08. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
MIRIAM SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THROUGH 48 HOURS THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ABOUT
40-50 N MI TO THE RIGHT OF THE OLD ONE DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE CENTER AND AN ADJUSTMENT HALFWAY TOWARD THE NEW TVCE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE...BUT THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT AS TO
HOW MUCH LATITUDE MIRIAM WILL GAIN. AT ONE EXTREME...THE GFDL AND
GFS SHOW A MOTION EAST OF DUE NORTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
MIRIAM INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 30N/130W BY DAY 5. ON
THE OTHER EXTREME THE ECMWF AND HWRF SHOW MIRIAM TURNING WESTWARD
AND BYPASSING THE SHORTWAVE. SINCE MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEEP
CYCLONE IT SHOULD GAIN AT LEAST SOME LATITUDE IN RESPONSE TO THE
BREAK IN THE RIDGE. GIVEN THIS REASONING...AND A DESIRE TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY DUE TO THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD...THE NHC TRACK AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 14.3N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.8N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 16.1N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 17.2N 111.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 18.2N 113.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 19.3N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 20.2N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 21.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Miriam:

Quoting sar2401:

Even though I think you are seriously underestimating the complexity of turbine and rotor inspection and maintenance, why don't you work out your plan and get a patent? Since you apparently worked for a company with the only really smart engineers on the planet, I can imagine they would help you with the patent for a small share of the profits. I can assure you that, if what you propose would meet EPA and FERC regulations and guidelines, and reduce costs significantly, energy companies that use wind turbines would snap it up and give lots of those fake paper dollars.


I didn't say that, so don't try to poison the well or something.

This sort of stuff is in wide use in all sorts of automated facilities.

Once you wrap your mind around the concept that a machine can move in straight lines and circles very efficiently, and since the nacelle completes a full circle at least once from time to time, you will realize what a few guide wires, a pressure washer, and a servo or two can accomplish.

It can be done with virtually no impact on the environment, in fact it would have significantly less impact than what they were doing on TWC, and wouldn't involve putting 2 to 4 guy's lives at risk for every turbine cleaned or inspected.

Consider this:

1, the pressure washer was used any way, so I haven't added anything.

2, they used a massive crane and two guys on a piece of catwalk, which used far more fuel and materials than what I would need.

3, they used more labor since they do this repeatedly, but my idea could be retrofitted or designed into the turbines ahead of time, for about the same or LESS labor than what they use on every individual cleaning and inspecting task.

4, The cleaning ideas would pay for themselves in the very first use, since it definitely could be done without shutting down operation.

5, the inspection idea would save a lot of time and hazard pay, since a robot could do it under less optimal wind conditions anyway.



Are the fleas trained to stay in the jar even though the lid has been removed?

I think so.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Just one minor spelling error I managed to run across:

"The first two weeks of October are typically a busy period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and I expect that we'll see one or two more names storms in the Atlantic before October 15."


Bah, we don't want him spending his time proofreading :)
Quoting Civicane49:


The Cape Verdes better watch out...XTRP has it going right through them!
Quoting FutureWx6221:


The Cape Verdes better watch out...XTRP has it going right through them!

And we all know the XTRP is the most reliable model ever known to man!
Quoting clamshell:


I think that the press got it right when they said it was an inside job. And that would explain why it hasn't had much airtime since it occurred. Some have even speculated that they were also after Prince Harry. AOL wrote about that threat several days earlier.

Be that as it may, the pictures of the area clearly show that, on three sides, the terrain is flat and desolate, not very conducive to sneak attacks. Explaining the possibly lax defense efforts. Not any more that is for sure.




I think what you have to put this kind of attack down too, is that age old statement of, "Never underestimate the enemy."
Its all very well calling these terrorists a bunch of thugs but they seem to have from their point of view archived quite a lot.
They are fighting on their ground and they are surrounded by their allies.
The Allies are fighting in "their grounds" and have almost zero support from the locals.
A dire situation at the best of times.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Just one minor spelling error I managed to run across:

"The first two weeks of October are typically a busy period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and I expect that we'll see one or two more names storms in the Atlantic before October 15."
Oh My Goodness..... Now we are looking for spelling errors.... Let it go....
Geez, talk about a massive track shift. New Jelawat track forecast:



The earlier one if you don't remember had it turning west and going just north of the Philippines.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Geez, talk about a massive track shift. New Jelawat track forecast:



The earlier one if you don't remember had it turning west and going just north of the Philippines.


Now Okinawa is in play once again for maybe another landfall or close call.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Now Okinawa is in play once again for maybe another landfall or close call.

Yep, I wouldn't be surprised if it trended even further that way. JTWC had really been buying the ECMWF solution which brought it near the northern Philippines but the 12z flipped and joined the GFS in a northern track. They also lowered the intensity forecast a bit as Jelawat has been pretty slow to strengthen for a West Pac storm.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Geez, talk about a massive track shift. New Jelawat track forecast:



The earlier one if you don't remember had it turning west and going just north of the Philippines.


WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JGSM
MODEL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A 135NM
SPREAD AT TAU 72; HOWEVER, GFDN, NOGAPS, JGSM AND UKMO HAVE BEEN
ERRATIC. BASED ON THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS, THE JTWC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, AS DEPICTED
BY THE ECMWF MODEL, OVER THE UNLIKELY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO THE STR
(MOST NOTABLY JGSM, UKMO, WBAR). DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.

Sounds like it's a model vs. human battle over there.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh My Goodness..... Now we are looking for spelling errors.... Let it go....

Lol, you seem to have a problem with me...

They made the Ignore button for a reason. Use it instead of complaining all the time.

By the way, I wasn't "looking" for the spelling error per say, I just happened to notice it so I pointed it out.
Quoting yqt1001:


WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JGSM
MODEL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A 135NM
SPREAD AT TAU 72; HOWEVER, GFDN, NOGAPS, JGSM AND UKMO HAVE BEEN
ERRATIC. BASED ON THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS, THE JTWC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, AS DEPICTED
BY THE ECMWF MODEL, OVER THE UNLIKELY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO THE STR

(MOST NOTABLY JGSM, UKMO, WBAR). DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.

Sounds like it's a model vs. human battle over there.

Lol, the Euro totally flipped and now they're going for the northern track. I'm interested in reading the new discussion when it comes out.
Quoting clamshell:

Well, history shows that they were wrong, but it does indicate that people were paying attention to the Arctic sea ice long before 1979. Lots of explorers have died up there.
T numbers just jumped:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 979.6mb/ 72.2kt

Looks like we've got a nice pinhole on the way:

Quoting PlazaRed:

I think what you have to put this kind of attack down too, is that age old statement of, "Never underestimate the enemy."
Its all very well calling these terrorists a bunch of thugs but they seem to have from their point of view archived quite a lot.
They are fighting on their ground and they are surrounded by their allies.
The Allies are fighting in "their grounds" and have almost zero support from the locals.
A dire situation at the best of times.


Exactly.
Jelawat:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
T numbers just jumped:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 979.6mb/ 72.2kt

Looks like we've got a nice pinhole on the way:


Pinhole would be smaller than that.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh My Goodness..... Now we are looking for spelling errors.... Let it go....

I doubt he is looking for spelling errors, he just noticed one and then pointed it out probably.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, you seem to have a problem with me...

They made the Ignore button for a reason. Use it instead of complaining all the time.

By the way, I wasn't "looking" for the spelling error per say, I just happened to notice it so I pointed it out.
In the 4 years I have been on this blog I have never put anyone on "ignore" I have no reason to... It just strikes me why would anyone here find a spelling error so important to point it out when we all know exactly what is meant.As I said earlier.......Let it go.We all make mistakes...........Got it??
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
TROPICAL STORM LAWIN (JELAWAT)
5:00 AM PhST September 23 2012
==================================

Tropical Storm "LAWIN" has maintained its strength as it continues to move slowly over the Philippine Sea

At 4:00 AM PhSt, Tropical Storm Lawin (Jelawat) [982 hPa] located at 12.1°N 129.5°E or 485 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
------------------

Visayas Region
==============
1. Eastern Samar
2. Northern Samar
3. Western Samar

Additional Information
=====================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm "LAWIN".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (T1217)
6:00 AM JST September 23 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Jelawat (980 hPa) located at 11.9N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 13.2N 129.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 14.6N 129.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
69 HRS: 16.7N 128.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
Whilst following TS Jelewat's latest antics in the W Pac, I take some time to read the blog and am bemused by elements of one entry concerning the loss of USMC aircraft to a ground attack.

I am sure there will be hard, searching questions regarding what appears (given the very limited details) to be a fall down in base security - that said, Airfields, given their size and need for wide open spaces, are notoriously hard to defend.

I am also baffled as to quite where one would expect Close Air Support/Ground attack aircraft to be based, apart from in-country, as close to the troops that they support, in order to react quickly - that is what Close Air Support means. To suggest Carrier basing in this context of Afghanistan is, IMHO, stunningly naive - raises problems such as overflights of sovereign airspace, need for tankers, lack of rapid response times, inability to "loiter" near target areas and many more.

Sadly, the loss of life, and included the loss of a Squadron Commander, is probably a much more telling blow than the loss of the airframes - no mention was made of that, which I find utterly disrespectful.

I will not elaborate on the bigotry and disdain shown for a major world religion

Anyway - back to weather and I will let the "armchair general" solve the tactics and strategy of this war.
Well about to storm here.Getting windy here and the clouds are dark.I took some good pictures of the clouds rolling in.The camera ain't doing justice.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, you seem to have a problem with me...

They made the Ignore button for a reason. Use it instead of complaining all the time.

By the way, I wasn't "looking" for the spelling error per say, I just happened to notice it so I pointed it out.
wx13......Pinky truce...... You just struck me wrong a few days ago ..................Let's start over................. It might work, It might not.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FOREST COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN VENANGO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 603 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF COOPERSTOWN...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COOPERSTOWN... OIL CREEK STATE PARK...
WEST HICKORY... TIONESTA... PLEASANTVILLE...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4148 7933 4142 8013 4149 8014 4149 8001
4157 7991 4159 7986 4163 7982 4163 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 262DEG 27KT 4156 8008



98
The Sun is up in the West Pac:

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
wx13......Pinky truce...... You just struck me wrong a few days ago ..................Let's start over................. It might work, It might not.


Out of all the people on this blog you could have a problem with, you have one with TA? He posts all of the time and never has a conflict with anyone. The one with the hostile attitude has been you from what I've seen.

Sorry for butting in, but this is a feud that seems pointless.
Quoting SSideBrac:
Whilst following TS Jelewat's latest antics in the W Pac, I take some time to read the blog and am bemused by elements of one entry concerning the loss of USMC aircraft to a ground attack.

I am sure there will be hard, searching questions regarding what appears (given the very limited details) to be a fall down in base security - that said, Airfields, given their size and need for wide open spaces, are notoriously hard to defend.

I am also baffled as to quite where one would expect Close Air Support/Ground attack aircraft to be based, apart from in-country, as close to the troops that they support, in order to react quickly - that is what Close Air Support means. To suggest Carrier basing in this context of Afghanistan is, IMHO, stunningly naive - raises problems such as overflights of sovereign airspace, need for tankers, lack of rapid response times, inability to "loiter" near target areas and many more.

Sadly, the loss of life, and included the loss of a Squadron Commander, is probably a much more telling blow than the loss of the airframes - no mention was made of that, which I find utterly disrespectful.

I will not elaborate on the bigotry and disdain shown for a major world religion

Anyway - back to weather and I will let the "armchair general" solve the tactics and strategy of this war.


Actually, there was one close air support action in that attack and it did make a significant contribution to bringing the attack to an end rather quickly. Only it wasn't quick enough.

Didn't the press report, early on, that the attackers wore US Army uniforms? Camp Bastion appears to be the actual target because many believed that Prince Harry was there and the media did also mention it early on as well.

The rest of the story really does need to be kept far from those who would seek to repeat the attack elsewhere. So , I shall refrain from further comment, if for no other reason than to protect our sons and daughters who are stationed there or work there.


Some nice topographic lifting occuring south of Attica, NY (east of Buffalo)



Shows up even better (along with the topography) on the interactive wunderground map Link
Quoting MississippiWx:


Out of all the people on this blog you could have a problem with, you have one with TA? He posts all of the time and never has a conflict with anyone. The one with the hostile attitude has been you from what I've seen.

Sorry for butting in, but this is a feud that seems pointless.
Miss.........I'm sure you didn't catch what went on a few days ago......So I will let it pass. It wasn't pretty.
I live i zone 9 and want to grow some of those loffas. Where can I buy the seeds?
Lots of convection in west Africa, but no real organized waves coming off the coast. I think we can officially declare CV season over. You can also see ex Nadine at the top of the image, she's in no hurry to go anywhere.

Quoting HurrikanEB:
Some nice topographic lifting occuring south of Attica, NY (east of Buffalo)


I am afraid those are windmill farms that the radar system cannot seem to reject.
Quoting Autistic2:
I live i zone 9 and want to grow some of those loffas. Where can I buy the seeds?
Not an easy sponge plant to grow.....Takes time and patients
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Keeper.You have mail
Quoting liquidsquid:


I am afraid those are windmill farms that the radar system cannot seem to reject.


Wait, are you being serious? I had noticed that the radar didn't seem to totally correlate with the best peaks in the terrain, but windmill farms?
Quoting Autistic2:
I live i zone 9 and want to grow some of those loffas. Where can I buy the seeds?


You could start looking here. I have never bought seeds from them, but a quick google search turned them up.

http://parkseed.com/product.aspx?p=00900-PK-P1&gc lid=CPa15NmhyrICFU6mPAodgC8AjQ

Link
Quoting Dakster:


You could start looking here. I have never bought seeds from them, but a quick google search turned them up.

http://parkseed.com/product.aspx?p=00900-PK-P1&am p;gc lid=CPa15NmhyrICFU6mPAodgC8AjQ

Link
Park Seed is a very reliable company.... One of the best
This is not a tropical storm.

Well just had some heavy rain with gusty showers here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is not a tropical storm.



This is more like a typhoon now.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is not a tropical storm.


That is a strengthening typhoon, should be a typhoon nest advisory imo since it isn't one already.
That's no moon, it's a space station.
I can say with high confidence that Jelawat is in RI right now. All it needed to do was close off the eyewall, which according to this microwave pass it has very nearly done, and the rocket fuel underneath it and favorable upper level conditions will do the rest... A Cat 2 by morning would be no surprise.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Well just had some heavy rain with gusty showers here.

I was supposed to get rain/storms, not one drop yet. I still could get something later tonight.
post 154

Thank you
Ex-Nadine is still producing convection around the center.

Latest ASCAT of Jelawat shows the nice circulation, I'm sure this is not a tropical storm anymore. A great environment will allow Jelawat to continue to strengthen quickly. I think Jelawat will become, or get close, to super typhoon strength.
Quoting Civicane49:
Ex-Nadine is still producing convection around the center.


More convection it has than at any point over the past 24 hours. I think it's gradually becoming fully warm core again as it detaches from the front.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

More convection it has than at any point over the past 24 hours. I think it's gradually becoming fully warm core again as it detaches from the front.


Agreed.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

More convection it has than at any point over the past 24 hours. I think it's gradually becoming fully warm core again as it detaches from the front.

I figured Nadine would regenerate back into a tropical storm and it is looking more and more likely. I think the chances should be raised at the 8pm TWO to high.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Finally someone posted, I thought I scared everyone away:) Eye is starting to pop out, Jelawat is a great looking storm.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MIRIAM LOCATED ABOUT 610 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON MIRIAM ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON MIRIAM ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMEP3.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT
575 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Ex-Nadine stays at 40%, I think it should be higher.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT
575 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.
This looks like a tropical blog again. About time.
Post-Nadine still at 40%




On another note, here is my NWS forecast for tonight:

A slight chance of rain showers and sleet before 2am. Patchy frost after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
So, Beven states that convection has increased since earlier, and he also states that environmental conditions are favorable for regeneration, but he leaves the percentage at 40%.

Makes perfect sense....not really.
How do you pronounce Jelawat?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, Beven states that convection has increased since earlier, and he also states that environmental conditions are favorable for regeneration, but he leaves the percentage at 40%.

Makes perfect sense....not really.

Obviously makes perfect sense, the chance of development is higher than what Beven said. It is more like 50-60% with what he said.
Quoting washingtonian115:
How do you pronounce Jelawat?

Idk. But I'd think it'd be jell-a-watt
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, Beven states that convection has increased since earlier, and he also states that environmental conditions are favorable for regeneration, but he leaves the percentage at 40%.

Makes perfect sense....not really.


Let your thinking be heard at NHC with an email. You know people over there.
Quoting washingtonian115:
How do you pronounce Jelawat?

I have no clue. But I've been pronouncing it gel-a-watt.
When looking at the Tropical wave along 45w and 13n, doesen't it have some spin but very little convection???
This is for Miriam:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 SEP 2012 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 14:25:54 N Lon : 108:00:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.9mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.6 3.6


She doesn't appear particularly well organized but she's likely a little stronger than 40mph:

Quoting washingtonian115:
How do you pronounce Jelawat?

I pronounce it like the unit of energy, how it is supposed to be pronounced idk.
The JMA might as well highlight the whole Pacific Ocean in their forecast tracks.

A Jelawat is also a type of fish. It looks like this:

8pm..AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N83W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THIS REGION S OF 26N E OF 86W...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS
ENTERING THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...ENHANCING INLAND LOCAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
Tropical Storm Miriam:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A Jelawat is also a type of fish. It looks like this:



Still not threatening, lol.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The JMA might as well highlight the whole Pacific Ocean in their forecast tracks.


I'm thinking it's that big because they zoomed it in. It's not that big if you look at the whole basin.
YAWN
Jelawat pronunciation
Jelawat jer-la-wa-t
Also known as Sultan fish. This fresh-water carp fish is normally found in big rivers. It is a very tasty fish and very much sought after by gourmets.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A Jelawat is also a type of fish. It looks like this:



SO....

Jelawat is a

FISH STORM

; )
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


SO....

Jelawat is a

FISH STORM

; )

LOL.
Miriam is up to 40 knots.
EP, 13, 2012092300, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1081W, 40, 1002, TS,
Ex Nadine 00z Best Track.

AL, 14, 2012092300, , BEST, 0, 304N, 257W, 45, 987, LO
This is a typhoon going under RI.


Miriam is know up to 40 knots.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
9:00 AM JST September 23 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (965 hPa) located at 11.8N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 13.4N 129.2E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 15.5N 129.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 17.9N 128.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
JMA upgrades to Typhoon!!..



TY 1217 (JELAWAT)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 23 September 2012

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N11°50'(11.8°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E129°10'(129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E129°05'(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°55'(17.9°)
E128°35'(128.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)
JMA has gone to 10 minute sustained of 70kts on Jelawat. We'll see what JTWC does in a couple hours. They're currently at 60kt 1 minute sustained.
Typhoon Jelawat:

comon' u.s! hit china with a good one! of course kidding
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, Beven states that convection has increased since earlier, and he also states that environmental conditions are favorable for regeneration, but he leaves the percentage at 40%.

Makes perfect sense....not really.

Maybe the question is: favorable as compared to what?

I know when I'm under a 40% chance of rain, I expect it to rain. That does not make sense strictly speaking, but over the years that is how I've come to interpret it. Maybe it has to do with the fact that rainy days are the exception to begin with. So compared with the climatological chance for rain (quite low), 40% actually is favorable odds.

So I think Beven is saying that compared to the climatological chances for regeneration, the chances that Nadine will regenerate are pretty good. 40% is consistent with that interpretation. I don't really see a problem.
209. beell
A short paper on the results of the NHC's in-house verification of assigning percentages of TC formation. The work began in 2007. Inclusion of probability percentages in the TWO began in 2010.

VERIFICATION OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER’S EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILISTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FORECASTS
Daniel P. Brown, James L. Franklin and Jamie R. Rhome
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center, Miami, Florida


I'm almost certain that there is a 40% probability that only half of you will read it.
;)
210. wxmod
Ice cap. I don't think melt season is over. North pole lower right. MODIS today

We're starting to get some rain here as the current front passes through. Looks like another bout is set to hit in a couple hours. I sure hope this means cooler temps for the next day or two; it's been a miserable September heatwise...

JMA's 00z forecast track for Typhoon Jelawat.

213. wxmod
North pole, upper left. MODIS today

Quoting beell:
A short paper on the results of the NHC's in-house verification of assigning percentages of TC formation. The work began in 2007. Inclusion of probability percentages in the TWO began in 2010.

VERIFICATION OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER’S EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILISTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FORECASTS
Daniel P. Brown, James L. Franklin and Jamie R. Rhome
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center, Miami, Florida


I'm almost certain that there is a 40% probability that only half of you will read it.
;)

Is 40% a favorable status or not? Since the general public will never see your post, the chances would seem pretty good comparatively for WUBA's.
216. beell
Quoting bappit:

Is 40% a favorable status or not? Since the general public will never see your post, the chances would seem pretty good comparatively for WUBA's.


There is no workable, objective method to answer the question.

I think we have a situation here.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 977.2mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.1C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE



another cold front on the dive each one colder than the last
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think we have a situation here.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 977.2mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.1C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

That's an outlier, No doubt. Look at the adjusted T's.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think we have a situation here.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 977.2mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.1C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE


In post 202, I said we have a typhoon undergoing RI and it is true.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think we have a situation here.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 977.2mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.1C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE


There's already a "situation".
I've heard of people being risk averse. Maybe the converse translates into being favorable averse.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's already a "situation".

Houston, we got a situation here.
Quoting Thing342:
That's an outlier, No doubt. Look at the adjusted T's.

Not necessarily. We saw the exact same thing happen with Sanba not long ago. Very similar actually, T numbers were hovering around 4.0 and then the eye cleared out and the Raw T shot up to a 7.0 and as the eye cleared more the others joined it. I'm not saying 7.0 is an accurate representation of current intensity but I think we'll see it trend that way over night as the other numbers come up.
Quoting wxchaser97:

In post 202, I said we have a typhoon undergoing RI and it is true.

I saw it first :P I forget the post though. So you win, lol.



TXPQ27 KNES 222122
TCSWNP

A. 18W (JELAWAT)

B. 22/2032Z

C. 12.0N

D. 129.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED WITH DT=4.5 BASED ON
WHITE BANDING OF 12/10. MET AND PAT HOWEVER ARE 4.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

22/1626Z 12.1N 129.4E TMI
22/1824Z 12.1N 129.2E AMSU


...SWANSON
Quoting Thing342:
That's an outlier, No doubt. Look at the adjusted T's.

Or Jelawat is rapidly intensifying and T#'s are flying up.
228. wxmod
Not much ice cap, and what's left could be blown away in a storm. MODIS today

All right guys I'm out for the night I think... Eye is really becoming clear now:

Quoting Thing342:
That's an outlier, No doubt. Look at the adjusted T's.


Outlier, but a good indication of RI since for some reason ADT goes to 7.0 durin RI.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I saw it first :P I forget the post though. So you win, lol.

Lol, going to be a strong typhoon when we wake up.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
All right guys I'm out for the night I think... Eye is really becoming clear now:


Good night MA, Jelawat looking excellent.
Looks like Taiwan is going to have another visitor from the sea...
Quoting wxchaser97:

Or Jelawat is rapidly intensifying and T#'s are flying up.
That may be true, but do you really think Jelawat is a 175mph Category 5?
Quoting Thing342:
That may be true, but do you really think Jelawat is a 175mph Category 5?

No, but Jelawat is strengthening fast. Jelawat is probabaly a cat2-3 typhoon.
238. JLPR2
Meanwhile, in the Atl...

JTWC will upgrade to Typhoon at 75kts. It shows up at NRL. Warning shortly.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
All right guys I'm out for the night I think... Eye is really becoming clear now:


Still looks bigger than pinhole.
WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MORE ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
145NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 221626Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH A POSSIBLE
EYEWALL BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TS 18W
HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DUE TO A DEVELOPING TUTT CELL NEAR 15N 137E.
LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON THE
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 TO
65 KNOTS FROM KNES, RJTD AND PGTW. TS 18W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. STORM TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED MORE POLEWARD AS THE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CHINA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE LATER TAUS.
B. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK STR POSITIONED
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER JAPAN.
AFTER TAU 12, THIS TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE FURTHER EASTWARD AND THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AND AMPLIFY, DRIVING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. TS 18W SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH EGRR,
JGSM, AND GFDN TAKING AN UNLIKELY SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, INTO
THE RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UNLIKELY TRACKS OF THESE MODELS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 18W IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS; HOWEVER, NOGAPS, GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BECOME MORE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS WITH TRACKS SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA,
JAPAN. DUE TO THIS LARGE MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AFTER TAU 120, MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SUGGEST A RECURVE SCENARIO IN THE EAST CHINA SEA TOWARDS SOUTHERN
JAPAN. TS 18W WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96
BUT WILL BEGIN TO DECAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IN THE MORE NORTHERN LATITUDES.//
NNNN

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MORE ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
145NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 221626Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH A POSSIBLE
EYEWALL BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TS 18W
HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DUE TO A DEVELOPING TUTT CELL NEAR 15N 137E.
LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON THE
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 TO
65 KNOTS FROM KNES, RJTD AND PGTW. TS 18W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. STORM TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED MORE POLEWARD AS THE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CHINA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE LATER TAUS.
B. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK STR POSITIONED
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER JAPAN.
AFTER TAU 12, THIS TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE FURTHER EASTWARD AND THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AND AMPLIFY, DRIVING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. TS 18W SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH EGRR,
JGSM, AND GFDN TAKING AN UNLIKELY SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, INTO
THE RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UNLIKELY TRACKS OF THESE MODELS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 18W IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS; HOWEVER, NOGAPS, GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BECOME MORE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS WITH TRACKS SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA,
JAPAN. DUE TO THIS LARGE MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AFTER TAU 120, MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SUGGEST A RECURVE SCENARIO IN THE EAST CHINA SEA TOWARDS SOUTHERN
JAPAN. TS 18W WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96
BUT WILL BEGIN TO DECAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IN THE MORE NORTHERN LATITUDES.//
NNNN


Possible eyewall? You don't say.

Ex-Nadine:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Possible eyewall? You don't say.


There is an eyewall? I cant find it, nice looking typhoon.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Possible eyewall? You don't say.



13,that was the 2100z warning,not the 03z that has not been released yet.
The WPac unleashes another monster typhoon.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


13,that was the 2100z warning,not the 00z that has not been released yet.
its current just not updated but as always things change

this thing has taken off for the moment we will see how far it gets
Amazing...
Quoting beell:
A short paper on the results of the NHC's in-house verification of assigning percentages of TC formation. The work began in 2007. Inclusion of probability percentages in the TWO began in 2010.

VERIFICATION OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER%u2019S EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILISTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FORECASTS
Daniel P. Brown, James L. Franklin and Jamie R. Rhome
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center, Miami, Florida


I'm almost certain that there is a 40% probability that only half of you will read it.
;)
I'm all over the under on that 40% figure....I'd set the line at 3.5% for those who read it entirely. It's not that long, 2-3 pages. I read it, and it's a good read. I gave it a 85% chance going in that it would be a good read. I'm into these kinds of pobabilities. Like, I think I've lost 45% of the readers by now, but I'm sure I have 100% of the rest....as anyone who's read this far......is here.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Taiwan is going to have another visitor from the sea...
More like Okinawa again.
Quoting Ameister12:
Amazing...
eye has clear out.
Quoting allancalderini:
eye has clear out.

The eye is looking better and Jelawat has a good eyewall.
JTWC may say is at 75kts but I think is at least 90kts.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 18W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 11.8N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.5N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.5N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.7N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.1N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.4N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.7N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 128.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 230000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z
AND 240300Z.//

I don't want to be in Jelawat's path, not a fish storm:)
Jelawat:

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

MIRIAM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE DISTINCT TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...3.0/45 KT
FROM SAB...AND 3.3/51 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. SINCE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATED THAT THE STORM WAS WEAKER THAN ITS SATELLITE
PRESENTATION SUGGESTED...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ONLY INCREASED
TO 40 KT.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
CONDUCIVE FOR MIRIAM TO GAIN MORE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS MORE THAN A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE LOWER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE HIGHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...LEANING
TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE SUPRISING IF MIRIAM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN
FORECAST. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER
WATERS OF ABOUT 26C AND INTO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
THESE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING
TREND...AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.

AFTER MOVING ERRATICALLY EARLIER TODAY...IT APPEARS THAT MIRIAM IS
MOVING MORE STEADILY NOW. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/7. THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS STEERED BY
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK
BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND SOME
OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE PREDICT MIRIAM TO TURN TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS
SHOW A TURN TO THE WEST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS ABOUT 1000 N MI BY DAY
5. THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE LARGE MODEL DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF MIRIAM. OVERALL...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 14.9N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.6N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 16.8N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.5N 114.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 19.4N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 20.3N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...MIRIAM STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 108.5W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Convection gradually increased around the center of Miriam.

Just needs to separate from the front and it will likely be declared a tropical cyclone again. My guess is a re-upgrade sometime tomorrow afternoon.

Quoting Civicane49:
Convection gradually increased around the center of Miriam.


Slowly organizing, likely to become a hurricane.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just needs to separate from the front and it will likely be declared a tropical cyclone again. My guess is a re-upgrade sometime tomorrow afternoon.


Detaching from the front as we speak, already looks tropical besides having that front.
Convection persists on ex-Nadine.

Good night everyone, Jelawat continues to improve on satellite.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Looks like a cerculation is trying to form
Tokyo ADT

2012SEP23 020100
T4.3 CI
973.7 hpa
T4.3 Final
T5.9 Adjusted
T6.8 Raw
2.2T/6hr

Quoting wxchaser97:
I don't want to be in Jelawat's path, not a fish storm:)
Is it sad that I would? :P
Hmm. Don't think I can resist blogging on Jelawat. I don't normally do western Pacific storms, but this is too fantastic to pass up.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Is it sad that I would? :P

Mo it isn't, I actually do but people who already got hit over there this year don't.

Quoting KoritheMan:
Hmm. Don't think I can resist blogging on Jelawat. I don't normally do western Pacific storms, but this is too fantastic to pass up.

I'll be blogging on Jelawat tomorrow.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Mo it isn't, I actually do but people who already got hit over there this year don't.

Kind of amazing the large-scale pattern that has held in the western Pacific this year.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Kind of amazing the large-scale pattern that has held in the western Pacific this year.

The western Pacific keeps on generating monster typhoons, they can;t get a break.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
TYPHOON LAWIN (JELAWAT)
11:00 AM PhST September 23 2012
==================================

"LAWIN" has intensified into a typhoon and moved closer to Samar provinces

At 10:00 AM PhSt, Typhoon Lawin (Jelawat) [976 hPa] located at 12.0°N 128.8°E or 330 km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
------------------

Visayas Region
==============
1. Samar provinces

Additional Information
=====================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Southwest Monsoon enhanced by the Typhoon will bring light to moderate rains in western Visayas and Mindanao.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to big waves generated by Typhoon "LAWIN".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
RI FLAG FLAG
Jelawat is probably around category 2-3 intensity right now. It's very possible Jelawat is going to become a Super Typhoon (category 4-5) tomorrow if is continues to intesify.
Looks like Rapid Intensification maybe underway..


Quoting wxchaser97:

The western Pacific keeps on generating monster typhoons, they can;t get a break.
Well it normally generates monster typhoons. This season is finally showing some signs of normalcy relative to recent years.
It would be crazy if Jelawat's track shifted northwards.

Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like Rapid Intensification maybe underway..

That's a rather common motif in that basin. I wouldn't be surprised at all.
Photobucket

Oh, yes, it had to be done.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Well it normally generates monster typhoons. This season is finally showing some signs of normalcy relative to recent years.

Yeah, the lack of activity that last few years has been surprising. The WPAc is almost always the most active basin.
TRMM of Miriam. Click pic for very large quicktime..
Jelawat:

1.21 Jelawat! GREAT SCOTT!!!

Quoting sullivanweather:
Photobucket

Oh, yes, it had to be done.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
12:00 PM JST September 23 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (950 hPa) located at 12.0N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 13.7N 129.2E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 15.5N 129.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
69 HRS: 17.9N 128.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines

Austrian Analemma
Image Credit & Copyright: Robert Pölzl

Explanation: Today, the Sun crosses the celestial equator heading south at 14:49 Universal Time. An equinox (equal night), this astronomical event marks the first day of autumn in the northern hemisphere and spring in the south. With the Sun on the celestial equator, Earth dwellers will experience nearly 12 hours of daylight and 12 hours of darkness. To celebrate, consider this careful record of the Sun's yearly journey through southern Austrian skies. The scene is composed of images made at the same time each day, capturing the Sun's position on dates from September 29, 2011 through September 9, 2012. The multiple suns trace an intersecting curve known as an analemma. In fact, the past year's two equinox dates correspond to the middle (not the intersection point) of the curve. The summer and winter solstices are at the top and bottom. Of course, many would also consider it a good idea to travel the mountain road toward the left, passing the vineyards along the way to reach the nearby town of Kitzeck and toast the equinox with a glass of wine. Near the roadside bench is a windmill-like klapotetz, traditionally used in this wine-growing region to keep the birds away.
The experimental RAMMB CIRA Latent Heat Release product is showing an incredible amount of taking place near the core.

Jelawat seems to be undergoing very rapid intensification at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see this system become the strongest cyclone of the year.

As of now, this could peak at about 150 knots

Facility:
Neumayer Station III
northeast City: Neumayer Station
Country: Antarctica
Coordinates: -70.650000 / -8.250000



Quoting Civicane49:
beautiful.
<
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OVER
WHICH TIME THE SUBJECTIVE DT AVERAGED HOURLY AND ENDING AT 0232Z WAS
5.8. THIS AVERAGE SERVES AS THE BASIS FOR THE FT AND JUSTIFIES BREAKING
TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. AT 0232Z...MG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY...AND
EMBEDDED IN...W WHICH RESULTS IN AN INSTANTANEOUS DT OF 6.0. PT IS 5.5
WHILE THE MET IS 5.0 FOR THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
<
Jelawat is gonna be Sanba II
000
ABNT20 KNHC 230536
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER
OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER
OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.
up to code red here come Nadine.....again.
Yay, pretty red colors!

Quoting Slamguitar:
Yay, pretty red colors!



I say 70%. Sorry Stewart.
Quoting sullivanweather:
Photobucket

Oh, yes, it had to be done.



What is Jelawat you ask?




+




= Jelawats


Theory: While Jelawats have limited use. If one wants to find the amount of electrical energy in body fat, they can use the equation jW/-(Vb-Vbf), or Jelawats/-(Volume of body - Volume of body fat).


Thus, Jelawats are limited in usage today, however as energy becomes more of a crisis in the future, Jelawats may become more important.

Notice in the last 2 frames the jog due north.



Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
15:00 PM JST September 23 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (935 hPa) located at 12.1N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.0N 129.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.4N 128.7E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 18.7N 128.4E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
AL, 14, 2012092306, , BEST, 0, 306N, 259W, 50, 987, LO

NADINE COULD REGENERATE AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...
MIRIAM STILL A 45 MPH STORM BY ATCF...I REALLY THINK SHE'S LIKE 60-65 MPH
Quoting AussieStorm:

Notice in the last 2 frames the jog due north.





more like NNE move...weird...
IS ANYONE AWAKE NOW BESIDES ME?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
IS ANYONE AWAKE NOW BESIDES ME?

17:40 here, of course i'm awake.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20
15:00 PM JST September 23 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.6N 140.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 19.0N 140.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Ewiniar trying to form as well.. maybe a problem for mainland Japan by the end of this week?
** wtpq30 rjtd 230600 ***

Rsmc tropical cyclone prognostic reasoning
Reasoning no. 7 for ty 1217 jelawat (1217)

1.General comments
Reasoning of prognosis this time is similar to previous one.
Position forecast is mainly based on nwp and persistency.
2.Synoptic situation
Nothing particular to explain.
3.Motion forecast
Position accuracy at 230600 utc is good.
Ty will accelerate for the next 24 hours.
Ty will move north for the next 72 hours.
4.Intensity forecast
Fi-number will be 7.0 after 24 hours.=
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Ewiniar trying to form as well.. maybe a problem for mainland Japan by the end of this week?

Been watching it on satellite, looks to be getting sheared big time from Jelewan's inflow.
who knows at what times are advisories issued for the Wpac storms... use UTC time if
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
IS ANYONE AWAKE NOW BESIDES ME?

Well, it's 17:38 KST here.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
who knows at what times are advisories issued for the Wpac storms... use UTC time if

JTWC issues advisories at 03, 09, 15, 21 UTC each day, while JMA issues advisories at approx. 01, 07, 13, 19 UTC each day, and intermediate advisories if a storm is a significant threat to land.
Mornin' gang! good afternoon Sir Aussie!
Just asking myself if post-tropical cyclone NADINE will keep the name when it regenerates again... I think so, but I am not sure.

If NADINE would have completed an extratropical transition or declared a remnant low, then it will get a new name, OSCAR, isn't it?

Thank you, folks.
Quoting Cazatormentas:
Just asking myself if post-tropical cyclone NADINE will keep the name when it regenerates again... I think so, but I am not sure.

If NADINE would have completed an extratropical transition or declared a remnant low, then it will get a new name, OSCAR, isn't it?

Thank you, folks.

Well, a post-tropical cyclone means an extratropical system or a remnant low. So if Post-tropical Storm Nadine becomes tropical again, it will keep the name Nadine.
WOW...THE NHC TAKES MIRIAM UP TO 100 MPH!
A low pressure system associated with Nadine is bringing 60 mph gusts and 2" of rain to S. England, this morning.

They were calling it the 'remnant of hurricane Nadine' yesterday. Not sure how it relates to Nadine, actually.

Quoting yonzabam:
A low pressure system associated with Nadine is bringing 60 mph gusts and 2" of rain to S. England, this morning.

They were calling it the 'remnant of hurricane Nadine' yesterday. Not sure how it relates to Nadine, actually.
Well... I guess this is a sensationalist title... Although that depression has formed from a tropical plume, taking humidity from NADINE.

Those are my thoughts.


Looking good (Nadine's PT status)
Good morning. Dvorak numbers are suggesting Jelawat is a solid Cat 4 right now. Very impressive storm. The similarities to Sanba are remarkable.



23/0832 UTC 12.3N 128.7E T6.5/6.5 JELAWAT -- West Pacific

Based on the small size of its eye I would expect an EWRC to begin before too long, it'll be close on whether it gets Cat 5 status or not.
watching ex92 near cozumul and wave near the leewards nothing imminent
Good morning everyone, Jelawat is looking really healthy and is most likely a category 4 typhoon. Ex-Nadine is still getting better and should regenerate in the next day or so.
Good morning. Besides Nadine,the operational models GFS/ECMWF dont develop anything in the 10 day timeframe in the Caribbean or in other areas for now.
Okinawa again?


WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 18W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS WITH A 45 KNOT INCREASE (55 TO 100 KNOTS) AND, BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI), HAS ALSO STARTED ANOTHER SMALL
CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MSI DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 12NM ROUND EYE AND BANDING FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AFTER THE EYE DEVELOPED, DVORAK ESTIMATES
HAVE JUMPED TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES, THEREFORE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE
EVIDENT IN MSI. TY 18W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PRESENT OVER
ASIA AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (93W)
LOCATED ABOUT 650NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE 23/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
JAPAN AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AFTER COMPLETING THE LOOP, TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. AS 93W TRACKS NORTHWARD,
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TY
18W, PROVIDING A NORTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND THE STR WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 18W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH LARGE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 500NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72 WITH TWO DISTINCT MODEL GROUPINGS. THE EASTERN GROUP,
COMPOSED OF UKMO, WBAR AND JGSM, INDICATES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. THE WESTERN GROUP, COMPOSED OF GFDN, ECMWF, NOGAPS, ECMWF AND
GFS, FAVORS A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF MODEL SOLUTIONS;
HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. AVAILABLE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WITH A SPREAD SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24-36.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED IN
TWO GROUPS AND DIVERGE FURTHER WITH A 815NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF SOLUTIONS,
WHICH INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN WITH A RE-CURVE
POINT JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 120, TY 18W IS FORECAST TO RE-
CURVE TOWARD OKINAWA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CHINA, ALONG 90E), WHICH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK INTO EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 96. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRACK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES.//
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. Besides Nadine,the operational models GFS/ECMWF dont develop anything in the Caribbean or in other areas for now.

I still think we will see a couple more storms develop before the season ends. Maybe one in the Caribbean and the other off a front or form in the subtropics.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I still think we will see a couple more storms develop before the season ends. Maybe one in the Caribbean and the other off a front or form in the subtropics.


I agree on that.
Jelawat isn't the only area of interest in the West Pacific. Another disturbance, invest 93W, will likely develop and threaten Japan within the next week.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
140.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST OF THE CENTER. A 222255Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, INDICATES IMPROVED FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC AND STRONG BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW. A 230002Z PARTIAL
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS SHARP TROUGHING WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
AND 25- TO 30-KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS
CURRENTLY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL
NEAR 25N 167E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT AND STRUCTURE AS WELL AS
MODEL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


Satellite view of the North Atlantic
TROPICAL UPDATE
_____________________

Tropical Storm Miriam
EX TS Nadine
Typhoon Jelawat

my newst graphic...



4X bigger pic here...risk-free
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Okinawa again?


WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 18W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS WITH A 45 KNOT INCREASE (55 TO 100 KNOTS) AND, BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI), HAS ALSO STARTED ANOTHER SMALL
CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MSI DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 12NM ROUND EYE AND BANDING FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AFTER THE EYE DEVELOPED, DVORAK ESTIMATES
HAVE JUMPED TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES, THEREFORE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE
EVIDENT IN MSI. TY 18W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PRESENT OVER
ASIA AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (93W)
LOCATED ABOUT 650NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE 23/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
JAPAN AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AFTER COMPLETING THE LOOP, TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. AS 93W TRACKS NORTHWARD,
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TY
18W, PROVIDING A NORTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND THE STR WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 18W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH LARGE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 500NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72 WITH TWO DISTINCT MODEL GROUPINGS. THE EASTERN GROUP,
COMPOSED OF UKMO, WBAR AND JGSM, INDICATES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. THE WESTERN GROUP, COMPOSED OF GFDN, ECMWF, NOGAPS, ECMWF AND
GFS, FAVORS A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF MODEL SOLUTIONS;
HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. AVAILABLE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WITH A SPREAD SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24-36.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED IN
TWO GROUPS AND DIVERGE FURTHER WITH A 815NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF SOLUTIONS,
WHICH INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN WITH A RE-CURVE
POINT JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 120, TY 18W IS FORECAST TO RE-
CURVE TOWARD OKINAWA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CHINA, ALONG 90E), WHICH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK INTO EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 96. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRACK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES.//


Not yet but models may change.
Up to 90%.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS...HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

Quoting AussieStorm:


Not yet but models may change.

Assuming current 5-day track is correct, it seems that Korea being in the warning zone next week is a possibility.
i say 4! dont forget there could be more late season action because of gm. i see twins in a wk or so with one in the carib. one in mid to late oct. nw carib and a late nov one. woops i broke the crystal ball no more predictions. dont complain about the unprofessional estimate its free.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Assuming current 5-day track is correct, it seems that Korea being in the warning zone next week is a possibility.

Yeah, I would say so but the ECMWF is showing Jelawat brushing Taiwan then heading NE toward Japan. Also shows 93W hitting Tokyo then heading NE.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, I would say so but the ECMWF is showing Jelawat brushing Taiwan then heading NE toward Japan. Also shows 93W hitting Tokyo then heading NE.

What a year for the Western Pacific!
Flooding, entering structures or vehicles possible.
ECMWF 168hrs.... Nadine is still alive

Quoting islander101010:
i say 4! dont forget there could be more late season action because of gm. i see twins in a wk or so with one in the carib. one in mid to late oct. nw carib and a late nov one. woops i broke the crystal ball no more predictions. dont complain about the unprofessional estimate its free.


What does General Motors have to do with the weather?

Quoting Bobbyweather:

What a year for the Western Pacific!

it's actually a very typical year. Just glad that the Philippines hasn't has much action.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Flooding, entering structures or vehicles possible.


Per the 11PM news reports on several channels, the 24 hours of Saturday has seen up to 6" of rain in the Miami area with numerous road closures, and the antiquated drainage and canal system unable to handle the runoff, and even showing a before and after still photo of a particular canal that was at present starting to breach it's banks and affect local area structures.
Quoting SenatorQ:


Per the 11PM news reports on several channels, the 24 hours of Saturday has seen up to 6" of rain in the Miami area with numerous road closures, and the antiquated drainage and canal system unable to handle the runoff, and even showing a before and after still photo of a particular canal that was at present starting to breach it's banks and affect local area structures.
..Its a funny thing, the miami area is richer than my area, yet my area has been going gangbusters in replacing the huge drains under the streets for a long time now, ensuring the flooding problems would be held to a minium in the future..floridians in the miami area should be holding their elected officials accountable for whats going on there now...
Quoting AussieStorm:

it's actually a very typical year. Just glad that the Philippines hasn't has much action.

Instead, the mid-latitude regions have had more action than usual. According to KMA(Korean Meteorological Agency), 5 typhoons have affected the Korean peninsula. Also, Typhoons Bolaven, Tembin, and Sanba contributed to the record of three typhoons in a row to make landfall in Korea.
Okinawa was affected hard, also.
so far all the rain is in south florida, nada here by me..
haven't seen much excitement over Nadine's rebirthing and westward movement. she must not be expected to do anything exciting?
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS.

FLOODING: GIVEN SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS,
ISOLATED STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH TODAY WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
might be an old track
12z Best Track up to 55kts for Miriam.

EP, 13, 2012092312, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1092W, 55, 998, TS
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE AT 23/0600 UTC IS A 987 MB GALE LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT
30.6N 25.9W DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
THE CENTER FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 23W-27W. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W AT 4 TO 9 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.
Thanks Largo. I always enjoy your Florida wx info as I am in Orlando.
Quoting dchappas:
Thanks Largo. I always enjoy your Florida wx info as I am in Orlando.
hi, looks like we here in central florida have a nice few days,weather wise.
GFS at 7 days..2 Lows down by the islands,just something to watch so far...
The ATCF says Nadine is fully tropical once again, as expected:

AL, 14, 2012092312, , BEST, 0, 305N, 254W, 50, 986, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1012, 300, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,
vis.of nw carib is interesting but early morning vis can be misleading
Nadine is a fascinating storm - tropical to sub-tropical (very rare to go that route as the NWS said) to post-tropical, and now back to tropical.

The only thing missing there from her resume is extra-tropical.
Quoting dchappas:
haven't seen much excitement over Nadine's rebirthing and westward movement. she must not be expected to do anything exciting?

Pretty much. She should continue to wander aimlessly for at least another week at sea and might present a low end threat to Portugal at the end of her long and torturous life. :)
Quoting islander101010:
i say 4! dont forget there could be more late season action because of gm. i see twins in a wk or so with one in the carib. one in mid to late oct. nw carib and a late nov one. woops i broke the crystal ball no more predictions. dont complain about the unprofessional estimate its free.

Do you like your crow boiled or deep fried? :)
Quoting dchappas:
haven't seen much excitement over Nadine's rebirthing and westward movement. she must not be expected to do anything exciting?


She appears to just hang around pretty much where she is for about a week, according to the GFS before making a trek North East .. Where she expected to interact with a cold Core low just before the British Isles
Quoting islander101010:
watching ex92 near cozumul and wave near the leewards nothing imminent

Ex-92 is near Cozumul? You need more coffee to help get your eyes working better.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
MSI DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 12NM ROUND EYE AND BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

Too big for pinhole.
Quoting Jedkins01:



What is Jelawat you ask?




+




= Jelawats


Theory: While Jelawats have limited use. If one wants to find the amount of electrical energy in body fat, they can use the equation jW/-(Vb-Vbf), or Jelawats/-(Volume of body - Volume of body fat).


Thus, Jelawats are limited in usage today, however as energy becomes more of a crisis in the future, Jelawats may become more important.

LOL. I now have a reason to eat more Twinkies. :)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
21:00 PM JST September 23 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (925 hPa) located at 12.7N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.7N 128.5E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.2N 128.2E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.4N 127.9E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting stribe37:
Nadine is a fascinating storm - tropical to sub-tropical (very rare to go that route as the NWS said) to post-tropical, and now back to tropical.

The only thing missing there from her resume is extra-tropical.

A post-tropical cyclone means...
A former tropical cyclone. This generic term describes a cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue carrying heavy rains and high winds. Note that former tropical cyclones that have become fully extratropical...as well as remnant lows...are two classes of post-tropical cyclones.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20
21:00 PM JST September 23 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marianas Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.9N 140.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 19.8N 139.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Quoting stribe37:
Nadine is a fascinating storm - tropical to sub-tropical (very rare to go that route as the NWS said) to post-tropical, and now back to tropical.

The only thing missing there from her resume is extra-tropical.


We'll just have to settle for "extra-special" I guess!
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Do you know what a post-tropical cyclone means?
A former tropical cyclone. This generic term describes a cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue carrying heavy rains and high winds. Note that former tropical cyclones that have become fully extratropical...as well as remnant lows...are two classes of post-tropical cyclones.

where does subtropical come into things??

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20120923 1200 30.5 25.4 T2.5/2.5 14L NADINE
20120922 1200 30.9 26.5 Subtropical 14L NADINE
Why can't we get better names for our basin's storms?
Jelewat....Thats a name!!!! We get "Bob", "Tony".
I'm back from driving for a bit, I see Nadine is a tropical storm again.
Quoting AussieStorm:

where does subtropical come into things??

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20120923 1200 30.5 25.4 T2.5/2.5 14L NADINE
20120922 1200 30.9 26.5 Subtropical 14L NADINE

Subtropical cyclone

A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

(From the NHC glossary)
So, Nadine has risen from the dead. What an incredible storm she has been!
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 927.3mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -17.8C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Jelawat is a super typhoon according to ADT, this is probably not that far off. Jelawat has a nice eyewall and deep convection. With really warm SST's and a favorable environment I think there is some more strengthening to come. Jelawat though is not close to being annular and probably won't be, at least for now.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Flooding, entering structures or vehicles possible.


Flood watch is in effect due to already saturated grounds from yesterdays rains. We do it all over again later today.

The eye has at least temporarily become obscured. We'll see what happens from here.



Quoting Ameister12:
So, Nadine has risen from the dead. Was an incredible storm she has been.

Nadine has never stopped believing, she will eventually die off or hit land. Remember those model runs that had her alive for 250hrs, doesn't seem so wrong now.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Nadine has never stopped believing, she will eventually die off or hit land. Remember those model runs that had her alive for 250hrs, doesn't seem so wrong now.

I actually would love to see her stay alive for another 10 days. She already a very crazy storm, so why not go all out. :)
Models say that, not only is she back, she may approach or attain hurricane status once again over the next few days while remaining a fully tropical cyclone.

Jelawat could get close to becoming a category 5. The only thing the might keep it from doing so is if it goes through an EWRC which could occur at anytime.
Quoting Ameister12:

I actually would love to see her stay alive for another 10 days. She already a very crazy storm, so why not go all out. :)

Why not, she is crazy storm so I wouldn't mind having her last longer.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Models say that, not only is she back, she may approach or attain hurricane status once again over the next few days while remaining a fully tropical cyclone.


Nadine becoming a hurricane again would not surprise me at all. With her past and a decent environment it is possible.
And Nadine will raise more the ACE numbers for her (12.2900) and the North Atlantic. (85.7475)
Quoting Ameister12:
Jelawat could get close to becoming a category 5. The only thing the might keep it from doing so is if it goes through an EWRC which could occur at anytime.

ADT has Jelawat at 155mph so Jelawat is very close to one. An EWRC could happen and disrupt everything, I don't think it will happen right now though.
TCFA has been issued for 93W, a potential threat to Japan this week.

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 140.4E TO 22.0N 140.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
140.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
138.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 140.1E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
EAST QUADRANT. A 230830Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BUT
DEFINED LLCC WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 23/06Z SHIP REPORT APPROXIMATELY 240NM WEST OF THE CENTER
INDICATED WINDS 330/21 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1002MB, INDICATIVE OF THE
QUICKLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. A 230002Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
SHARP TROUGHING WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND 25- TO 30-KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL NEAR 24N 166E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
Don't forget about Miriam as she is looking good as well.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Don't forget about Miriam as she is looking good as well.

Looks like a strong tropical storm right now (65-70mph). She'll become a hurricane later today.
Quoting Ameister12:

Looks like a strong tropical storm (65-70mph). She's likely going to becoming a hurricane later today.

Maybe even 75mph winds, definitely not 50mph and 1000mb.
Nadine is a TS going by ATCF, 11am advisory will show Nadine as a TS. Certainly could become a hurricane if she wants to.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Maybe even 75mph winds, definitely not 50mph and 1000mb.

ATCF puts it at 65 mph.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ATCF puts it at 65 mph.

I know, but she is strengthening nicely.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TCFA has been issued for 93W, a potential threat to Japan this week.

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 140.4E TO 22.0N 140.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
140.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
138.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 140.1E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
EAST QUADRANT. A 230830Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BUT
DEFINED LLCC WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 23/06Z SHIP REPORT APPROXIMATELY 240NM WEST OF THE CENTER
INDICATED WINDS 330/21 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1002MB, INDICATIVE OF THE
QUICKLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. A 230002Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
SHARP TROUGHING WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND 25- TO 30-KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL NEAR 24N 166E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.


93W may get close to Japan but models suggest no landfall

412. wxmod
waves eating ice

I don't know about you all.. but I believe Miriam is going to be putting on quite a show in the next 48 hours.
Quoting Thrawst:
I don't know about you all.. but I believe Miriam is going to be putting on quite a show in the next 48 hours.


Will be tough.



more north she goes, the higher the shear will become.
Having some very active weather here in Barbados this morning from very early, strong gusty winds, some gust reported over 50 mph and heavy downpours more thunder is approaching now
Low shear in the BOC area at

This is a sounding from a dropsonde released by the Global Hawk

70 knot winds at about 900mb

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This is a sounding from a dropsonde released by the Global Hawk

70 knot winds at about 900mb



Do you have in graphic the complete flight with the dropsondes?
Quoting goalexgo:
Why can't we get better names for our basin's storms?
Jelewat....Thats a name!!!! We get "Bob", "Tony".


Each of the 14 member states within the typhoon committe provided ten names, making 140 names in total.

Jelawat is a name provided by Malaysia. It's the name of a tasty fresh-water fish found in big rivers. It's a kind of carp, according to the Hong Kong Observatory's page on names of WestPac storms.

The names (as of 2004) can be found at
http://www.hko.gov.hk/informtc/sound/tc_pronuncia tione.htm

As in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific the cyclone names origin within the languages spoken in that basin. What means that aside from Maria and Francisco the names provided by the U.S. origin in Chamorro language.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

...LONG-LIVED NADINE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 25.6W
ABOUT 515 MI...835 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
Nadine is back, I feel like the "final" advisory should have said brb
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS THINNED A BIT THIS
MORNING...THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE PRIMARY BAND NOW WRAPS ABOUT HALF WAY
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE
AND TROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
NADINE IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. DROPSONDE DATA
FROM AN ONGOING NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KT. A DROPWINDSONDE NEAR THE CENTER AROUND 1030
UTC MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 989.9 MB WITH STRONG WINDS...SO THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB.

NADINE DRIFTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED. UNLIKE SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT NADINE WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

NADINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IN
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT TIME. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND NADINE SHOULD BE
MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER BY THEN. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY 48 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS NADINE ATTAINING HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 30.6N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 30.7N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 31.0N 27.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 31.4N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 31.5N 30.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 30.9N 31.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 30.5N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 32.5N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting Matthias1967:


Each of the 14 member states within the typhoon committe provided ten names, making 140 names in total.

Jelawat is a name provided by Malaysia. It's the name of a tasty fresh-water fish found in big rivers. It's a kind of carp, according to the Hong Kong Observatory's page on names of WestPac storms.

The names (as of 2004) can be found at
http://www.hko.gov.hk/informtc/sound/tc_pronuncia tione.htm

As in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific the cyclone names origin within the languages spoken in that basin. What means that aside from Maria and Francisco the names provided by the U.S. origin in Chamorro language.


Here's another possible reason for the names: www.post-snippets.blogspot.com
I love Nadine.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 30.6N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 30.7N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 31.0N 27.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 31.4N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 31.5N 30.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 30.9N 31.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 30.5N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 32.5N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
Quoting Grothar:


of course nothing for the N Leewards!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

...LONG-LIVED NADINE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 25.6W
ABOUT 515 MI...835 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


Hey, TA. If Nadine lasts into next year's season, will she still retain the name Nadine?
Nadine will never give up or go away, she is a great storm.

...LONG-LIVED NADINE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 23
Location: 30.6°N 25.6°W
Moving: W at 2 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 30.6N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 30.7N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 31.0N 27.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 31.4N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 31.5N 30.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 30.9N 31.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 30.5N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 32.5N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

Nadine is on Advisory #44 and likely to last at least 5 more days. At four advisories a day, for five days, the storm will be over 65 advisories by 120 hours.

Very long-lived.
Quoting CaribBoy:


of course nothing for the N Leewards!!


Hey, in South Florida we only had 63 inches of rain this season.
430 Grothar: If Nadine lasts into next year's season, will she still retain the name Nadine?

Nah, she'll be renamed the Great White Spot of Earth
Dont forget Miriam guys.


TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MIRIAM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST HAS FORMED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE...AND BANDING HAS BEEN INCREASING. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND UW-CMSS ADT
CI VALUES ARE AT 3.6. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/07. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT TURNS
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY 48 HOURS...MIRIAM SHOULD ENCOUNTER A
WEAKNESS ALONG 115W AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD
TURN AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY
PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A NOTABLE SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER
72 HOURS...PARTIALLY DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION OF MIRIAM
WITH A CUT-OFF LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT
4 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE EAST...FOLLOWING
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO REMAINS
ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS
THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS.

MIRIAM SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SSTS...A VERY
MOIST MID-TROPOSPHERE...AND LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX RESPONDS TO THESE FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS BY SHOWING A 75% CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...MIRIAM SHOULD BE NORTH OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY
SHEAR ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AT THAT TIME...BUT THE RATE OF WEAKENING SEEMS DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE CYCLONE AS WELL AS ITS POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH THE AFORMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW. A TRACK FARTHER EAST COULD KEEP
MIRIAM OVER WARMER WATER LONGER AND AWAY FROM EVEN STRONGER SHEAR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED A BIT IN THE SHORT TERM RELATIVE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.6N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.5N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 17.6N 112.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.5N 113.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 21.4N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine is on Advisory #44 and likely to last at least 5 more days. At four advisories a day, for five days, the storm will be over 65 advisories by 120 hours.

Very long-lived.

Hey, this isn't math class. She will probably live for more than five days.
As a remainder, Nadine is now a tropical cyclone again (duh), which means that its Accumulated Cyclone Energy units will resume accumulating.

Quoting Grothar:


Hey, TA. If Nadine lasts into next year's season, will she still retain the name Nadine?

Lol Gro, yes.
Quoting Grothar:


nice area of pre-disturb weather
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As a remainder, Nadine is now a tropical cyclone again (duh), which means that its Accumulated Cyclone Energy units will resume accumulating.


Lol Gro, yes.


Nadine will raise more the ACE numbers for her (12.2900) and the North Atlantic. (85.7475)
Jelawat is now predicted to become a category 5 super typhoon.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Hey, this isn't math class. She will probably live for more than five days.

My guess is that she will live for about 6 and a half more days, meaning that the 71st advisory will be the final one ;)
The obvious:
Jelawat is Sanba II
Nadine will have highest ACE
Nadine may become the 1 in Ace production if she stay alive as they are saying.
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
The obvious:
Jelawat is Sanba II
Nadine will have highest ACE


For sure Nadine will be #1 in ACE units as it is going to surpass Michael according to the NHC forecast.

Michael

16.4975

Nadine

12.5400
Article on long lived storms.

Link

Go awaaaaaaaay Nadine!!!.
XX/XX/XX
Why is it the beautiful Fall-like days only happen during the week when I'm teaching?
Nadine just wants to be around forever..... at this rate we will be eating our Thanksgiving Diners and then checking on Nadine
Quoting washingtonian115:
Go awaaaaaaaay Nadine!!!.

I don't think Nadine wants to go away, she is here to stay forever.
Quoting unknowncomic:


Seems like 2012 Hurricane season will give us a last shoot of storms


And NADINE supposed to be hurricane again incredible
Nadine will go to the middle of the atlantic, curve to the northeast again, then do another loop!
Quoting stormchaser19:


Seems like 2012 Hurricane season will give us a last shoot of storms


And NADINE supposed to be hurricane again incredible
October could be interesting.
Okay, here's my last guess of the day:
Nadine will reach 100 advisories!!!
:) Wishcasting lol
Quoting wxchaser97:

I don't think Nadine wants to go away, she is here to stay forever.
Karin 2....
She's BAAACK....



LOL
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Okay, here's my last guess of the day:
Nadine will reach 100 advisories!!!
:) Wishcasting lol


100 - 44 = 56, 56/4 = 14. Nadine will have to last for another two weeks for that to happen.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Karin 2....

Yup, Nadine will be circulating the seas forever, or is Nadine another form of Karen?
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup, Nadine will be circulating the seas forever, or is Nadine another form of Karen?

Everyone hide in* your bomb shelters! Karen's remnants finally resurfaced, and they're back to stay FOREVER.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup, Nadine will be circulating the seas forever, or is Nadine another form of Karen?
She's probably Karin's twin since Karin will have a chance next year.
Quoting washingtonian115:
She's probably Karin's twin since Karin will have a chance next year.
Nadine and Karen the sisters sounds good I will like to see Karen of next year.btw how long did 2007 Karen survive?you are all talking like she live for weeks.
Nadine has definitely been a fun storm to track... I hope it stays out there for a while.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Everyone hide in* your bomb shelters! Karen's remnants finally resurfaced, and they're back to stay FOREVER.

Alright I got my shelter ready, this is going to be a long ride.

Quoting washingtonian115:
She's probably Karin's twin since Karin will have a chance next year.

That will be a joy to track, Karen jokes will arise.

Quoting allancalderini:
Nadine and Karen the sisters sounds good I will like to see Karen of next year.btw how long did 2007 Karen survive?you are all talking like she live for weeks.

The tropical cyclone itself was only alive for about 4 days, but the remnants lasted much longer and even helped to form a TD. Some people say that Karen is lurking out there, we found out it is true.

Some of the vorticity from Karen's remnants may have been responsible for the development of the short-lived Tropical Depression Fifteen on October 11.[16]
The NHC's intensity forecast on Miriam is too aggressive I think. I don't see any evidence of an eyewall forming and it doesn't have much time left over warm waters.

Quoting washingtonian115:
She's probably Karin's twin since Karin will have a chance next year.


I won't be surprised if post-seasonal analysis reveals that Nadine actually did not loose tropical characteristics totally on yesterday.
Jelawat is probably a borderline Cat 4/5 right now.

Quoting Matthias1967:


I won't be surprised if post-seasonal analysis reveals that Nadine actually did not loose tropical characteristics totally on yesterday.

I probably would, she was still attached to the front.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The NHC's intensity forecast on Miriam is too aggressive I think. I don't see any evidence of an eyewall forming and it doesn't have much time left over warm waters.


The SHIPS gives the storm a 3/4 chance of 30-kt rapid intensification over the next 24 hours.
Imagine if Nadine traveled all the way across the Atlantic and threatened the US... I'm not suggesting that will happen but still that would be something.

She's got a long ways to go to get here:

Almost seems like we have a perpetual tropical system on our hands!
93W is poised to become the next named storm of the 2012 Pacific typhoon season, Ewiniar.



Meanwhile...



I'd put it at 145 mph.
I just look at something we are on pair with 1990 the same number of storms hurricanes and major.1990 was an El Niño year?
I got to go, bye everyone. Live long and prosper Nadine:)
Quoting allancalderini:
I just look at something we are on pair with 1990 the same number of storms hurricanes and major.1990 was an El Niño year?

1990 was a warm neutral year, very much like this year.
Nadine's an odd one. Relation to Karen, indeed.

Not only has she regained life tropically, but has also given birth to an extratropical low coming this way, bringing severe gales and possible flooding. Fun.

That's not all, though.

Guess what the FU of Berlin have named this low?



Yes.

Karin.

Someone has a sense of humour...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Imagine if Nadine traveled all the way across the Atlantic and threatened the US... I'm not suggesting that will happen but still that would be something.


Too much latitude already, I guess.
The high builds west, Nadine drops a little farther south, and the trek to Wilmington begins. Oct 2 landfall, probably as a weak Cat 2. And it doesnt end there. Back to the Canarys, for one more loop. Can it possibly hit Wilmington twice?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Cotillion:
Nadine's an odd one. Relation to Karen, indeed.

Not only has she regained life tropically, but has also given birth to an extratropical low coming this way, bringing severe gales and possible flooding. Fun.

That's not all, though.

Guess what the FU of Berlin have named this low?



Yes.

Karin.

Someone has a sense of humour...


Yup, you can see a Nadine give birth to that low clearly on the TPW:

I haven't seen numbers like this in a long time.


Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 77% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 72% is 9.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 19.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)
That would be something, if one year, a rare atmospheric pattern existed, causing a storm to survive for 1-2 entire months during hurricane season (similar to Nadine so far, but making several slow loops over a one to two moth period). Could happen.

Also, I don't recall seeing an Atlantic tropical cyclone become extratropical then fully regain tropical characteristics before. When is the last time this has happened, if ever?
As for local weather, the forecast shows no fronts bringing a dramatic cool down through the next week or so. Rather the temperatures are just on a VERY slow downward trend since the beginning of September. It will be like "summer-lite", with lows of 70-72F and highs 88-90 F (whereas summer is 73-75F lows and 91-94F highs).
Jelawat's EWRC is..almost done?



You can tell an EWRC is going on but convection doesn't show that the inner eyewall is almost gone.

Can anyone tell me what the classification of Sandy was at landfall? I'm not sure if this has been discussed here and apologize if it has, but I have been without much internet access here in Long Beach, NY

My questions:

Was Sandy technically a hurricane or hybrid system?

Was Sandy fed baroclinically and was the gulf stream involved?

Has anyone heard how this will affect the victims with Property Insurance, as far as "Hurricane Deductibles" go?

TIA!