WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Storm Nadine brushing the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on September 19, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine continues to churn towards the Azores Islands at 4 mph, where tropical storm warnings are up. Nadine brought sustained winds of 32 mph, gusting to 46 mph to Horta Castelo Branco in the Azores at 1:30 pm local time, and occasional heavy rain showers have affected most of the islands today. Nadine is a very large storm, as seen on visible satellite loops, and will affect the islands for at least three more days as it treks slowly to the southeast of the islands. On Thursday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and will convert to an extratropical storm. The final fate of Nadine is very uncertain; most of models predict that the two systems will merge, and the extratropical version of Nadine will move back to the west-southwest next week, where it could potentially become a tropical storm again. However, the GFS model predicts that Nadine and the upper-level low will remain separate, and extratropical storm Nadine will go on to hit Portugal and bring much-needed rain to the region on Monday. Much of Portugal and Spain are in moderate to severe drought, according to the Global Drought Monitor from the University College London.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine brushing the Azores (at right of image) and of an extratropical storm with a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical or extratropical cyclone by Friday (center of image.)

Extratropical storm east of Bermuda may acquire tropical characteristics
A large, cold-cored extratropical storm has formed about 800 hundred miles east of Bermuda, and has the potential to develop heavy thunderstorms that will enable it to become a warm-cored subtropical or tropical storm. Wind shear is a moderate to high 10 - 25 knots, and the low has plenty of cold, dry air aloft that will slow down any transition to a tropical storm. None of the reliable models develop this system into a tropical storm, though the latest runs of the GFS model and NOGAPS model predict that the system will begin to develop a warm core at low levels over the next few days. The storm is moving west at 10 mph, and should turn to the north by this weekend and potentially affect the Canadian Maritime Provinces. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the storm a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone by Friday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development through September 25.

One interesting note on Typhoon Sanba, which hit Korea on Monday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought heavy rains to the coast of Russia, causing street flooding in Vladivostok. The city recorded 4.37" of rain (111 mm) over a 2-day period, causing a mudslide in the city that temporarily disrupted a train connection between two local stations. As pointed out to me by Maximiliano Herrera, significant typhoons impacts are uncommon in Russia, and Sanba was the 2nd typhoon to impact Vladivostok this year. On August 29, Typhoon Bolaven brought wind gusts of up to 73 mph to Vladivostok, and the rains from the storm helped put out wildfires burning in eastern Russia.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"Its dead, Jim"
Thanks
thanks Dr. Masters..
A large, cold-cored extratropical storm has formed about 800 hundred miles east of Bermuda, and has the potential to develop heavy thunderstorms that will enable it to become a warm-cored subtropical or tropical storm.

Yep!
I wrote a blog on our forecast model's (GFS vs Euro) performance so far this year, as well as a brief current tropical analysis. Feel free to check it out
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
I'm still pulling for Nadine to make The Mark of Zorro across the Atlantic. C'mon Nadine, go west! You can do it!
Thanks Dr Masters.
Thanks Dr.


Quoting Patrap:
Endeavor made her NOLA,Michoud, Stennis pass and was a sight to behold.

file image:


It must be interesting how they attach the shuttle to the aircraft. Could make for difficult flying if not set just right.
A large, cold-cored extratropical storm has formed about 800 hundred miles east of Bermuda, and has the potential to develop heavy thunderstorms that will enable it to become a warm-cored subtropical or tropical storm.

Would it become warm-cored cause of water temps? How does it make the transition from cold to warm when sst's are borderline? Also, extropical mean's main convection is well away from the centre and would take a long time for convection to build? TIA
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
I'm still pulling for Nadine to make The Mark of Zorro across the Atlantic. C'mon Nadine, go west! You can do it!

What's that??
Quoting AussieStorm:
A large, cold-cored extratropical storm has formed about 800 hundred miles east of Bermuda, and has the potential to develop heavy thunderstorms that will enable it to become a warm-cored subtropical or tropical storm.

Would it become warm-cored cause of water temps? How does it make the transition from cold to warm when sst's are borderline? Also, extropical mean's main convection is well away from the centre and would take a long time for convection to build? TIA


The heavy thunderstorms through condensation and latent heat release warm the core from cold core to warm core
Quoting Twinkster:


The heavy thunderstorms through condensation and latent heat release warm the core from cold core to warm core

but I guess that would take a lot of time, right. Would it have enough time for that to happen?
Quoting AussieStorm:

What's that??


I guess you have to be as old as Grothar (or me) to remember him.
Zorro is a sort of Southwestern (US) Robin Hood legend (in old tv shows & movies), who was known for making his mark with his sword. It was a big Z.

Link

If Nadine went west, she'd make a big Z across the Atlantic. :)
thanks for the update doc

quiet for the last 3 days of official summer season fall begins on saturday
This season is shutting down fast. Area favorable for late season activity climatalogically aren't that favorable this year. Could see 1 or 2 late season TS or weak hurricanes from lingering cold fronts in GOM, or western carib but we aren't getting any Wilma's this year
Quoting AussieStorm:

but I guess that would take a lot of time, right. Would it have enough time for that to happen?


It does take time. Depends if wind shear is low enough to keep bulk of latent heat release in a concentrated area near core. If shear is strong enough and their is enough dry air the transition is much less possible
Way out, but I thought it was interesting. GFS shows a low nearing the Carolinas at 240 hours..
Quoting Twinkster:
This season is shutting down fast. Area favorable for late season activity climatalogically aren't that favorable this year. Could see 1 or 2 late season TS or weak hurricanes from lingering cold fronts in GOM, or western carib but we aren't getting any Wilma's this year
I agree.The instability in the caribbean has been the culprit in behind a lot of storms death's/not intensifying.You see 92L.It had things going for it.But due to the dry air it chocked and died.I see that we have a 10% in the Atlantic.If it does become Oscar it won't be very strong and willmore than likely break the strak of males becoming hurricanes.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
I'm still pulling for Nadine to make The Mark of Zorro across the Atlantic. C'mon Nadine, go west! You can do it!


Then they wouldn't remember Douglas Fairbanks, either. :)
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 AM EDT Wednesday 19 September 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 30.10 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 54.0°F
Dewpoint: 40.1°F
Humidity: 59 %
Wind: WNW 8 mph


nice refreshing day
Quoting Grothar:


Then they wouldn't remember Douglas Fairbanks, either. :)
I'm more the Errol Flynn era.


sst's showa slight cooling
has begun along northern gulf coasts

HPC day 7 have EX 92L going to the GOM as a 1012MB LOW
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


sst's showa slight cooling
has begun along northern gulf coasts

Not as surprise as the fronts have been swinging down and causing cooler air.A sign of Fall for sure!.Highs here for the rest of the week are suppose to be anywhere from low 70's to around 80.Lows in the 50's and 40's.
Endeavour Begins Ferry Flight to LA

by NASAKennedy

Space shuttle Endeavour and the Shuttle Carrier Aircraft took off Wednesday morning, Sept. 19, from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida to begin the first leg of a mission to deliver the retired shuttle to Los Angeles where it will go on display. The flight will be the last ferry flight of the space shuttle era, capping 35 years of shuttles riding atop modified 747s, counting the approach and landing tests conducted by Enterprise in 1977.



Latest Space Shuttle News
Quoting Xandra:
Endeavour Begins Ferry Flight to LA

by NASAKennedy

Space shuttle Endeavour and the Shuttle Carrier Aircraft took off Wednesday morning, Sept. 19, from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida to begin the first leg of a mission to deliver the retired shuttle to Los Angeles where it will go on display. The flight will be the last ferry flight of the space shuttle era, capping 35 years of shuttles riding atop modified 747s, counting the approach and landing tests conducted by Enterprise in 1977.



Latest Space Shuttle News


It flew directly over my house this morning! It was quite a site!
Quoting kwgirl:
I'm more the Errol Flynn era.


Who's that?

I'm more from the Tom Cruise era. :P
Well, quite late in his career.
A twofer:

invest_DELETE_al932012.ren
invest_DELETE_al922012.ren
Snow!!
Plaquemines Parish can't seem to catch a break


WEST POINTE A LA HACHE, La. -- Adolph Landry has weathered storm after storm across five decades in this small Plaquemines Parish community: from Hurricane Betsy in 1965, to Camille four years later, to Katrina in 2005.

None of those, he said, delivered the wall of water and destruction of Hurricane Isaac two weeks ago. On Monday, Landry surveyed the mud-caked landscape of crumpled homes, snapped trees and flipped cars that were once his well-groomed neighborhood. Electricity is still three weeks away.

"Betsy and Camille never did this," said Landry, 52, an air-conditioning technician. "I've lived here all my life and never seen anything like this."

As residents and officials across southern Louisiana begin the long task of cleaning up and rebuilding from Isaac's destruction, many in this embattled parish are asking why their communities were so relentlessly hammered by floods -- and whether it's worth rebuilding.

"We're not coming back," said Deuce Sylve, 44, whose ancestors settled in West Pointe a La Hache generations ago as oystermen and shrimpers. The house he shares with his 98-year-old grandmother was overtaken by floods during Isaac. "We can't go through this again."

Plaquemines Parish, located 12 miles south of New Orleans, is a skinny spit of land that follows the Mississippi River down to the Gulf of Mexico. It was one of the worst-hit areas during Isaac, which entered Louisiana just west of the parish.

Work crews this week launched the massive ...........
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Snow!!
please send some here..2 cold fronts and its still 89-90 here..geez
Here is a photo I took of Endeavour fly-over. lol



NASA have more here.
Hello! :)

14 years ago, today...

HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT SEP 19 1998

...GEORGES REACHES 125 MPH WINDS...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
CONFIRM...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES...
875 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.



Ah, the memory doesn't fade.
Blob Alert #12


Quoting Grothar:
Bob Alert #12




I don't think Bob should be too concerned.
Quoting yonzabam:


I don't think Bob should be too concerned.


That is because it it bobbing in the water. My 'L' is stuck, same thing happens to my "S". :)
Quoting Grothar:
Bob Alert #12



I saw Bob today and he didn't look very alert. :)
Afternoon all.

A rather interesting post about the Russian impacts... I wonder what the average return time on storms hitting that coast is...
Quoting LargoFl:

Largo, did you look at some of the lows on your map? 80 in Missoula MT and 70 in Portland ME? Looks like some weird data on that one.
Quoting Twinkster:
This season is shutting down fast. Area favorable for late season activity climatalogically aren't that favorable this year. Could see 1 or 2 late season TS or weak hurricanes from lingering cold fronts in GOM, or western carib but we aren't getting any Wilma's this year
I think we're just having a lull during September. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more storms in early to mid October.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
HPC day 7 have EX 92L going to the GOM as a 1012MB LOW

That baby low in the BOC in seven days is a remnant of ex-92L? How did you arrive at that conclusion?
Gleamin' skies in th' southeast usa buckos



(Excuse me scurvy pirate speech)
Quoting FtMyersgal:

getting quiet now
and with 8 to 10 day crossing time
there is not much time left
the sun crosses the line on saturday
as well as the ITCZ lowering with time.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Snow!!

At some point, the GFS will actually get this right and it will snow somewhere. :)
Quoting FtMyersgal:
This is the quietest the continent has looked since April....
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Gleamin' skies in th' southeast usa buckos



(Excuse me scurvy pirate speech)

Aye, matey, those be those chemtrails again. :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

getting quiet now
and with 8 to 10 day crossing time
there is not much time left
the sun crosses the line on saturday
as well as the ITCZ lowering with time.


I agree Keep CV season would appear to be mostly over. We will have to look closer to home for any mischief
lol
Quoting sar2401:

At some point, the GFS will actually get this right and it will snow somewhere. :)
Well today is much drier than expected so far across Central Florida, and yesterday really wasn't that big of a deal either. I'm so used to the radar representing more than the forecast anticipates that its shocking to see less than anticipated for the first time in months I think, today was forecast for days to be very wet, and it looks like isolated coverage at best for our area today. It might be scattered around 40 or 50 for the east side of the state though.. It might be a sign of the rainy season coming to end end in Florida soon. However I don't want to speak too soon. Also with an EL Nino winter approaching, the drying may be quite limited, we shall see.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Well today is much drier than expected so far across Central Florida, and yesterday really wasn't that big of a deal either. I'm so used to the radar representing more than the forecast anticipates that its shocking to see less than anticipated for the first time in months I think, today was forecast for days to be very wet, and it looks like isolated coverage at best for our area today. It might be scattered around 40 or 50 for the east side of the state though.. It might be a sign of the rainy season coming to end end in Florida soon. However I don't want to speak too soon. Also with an EL Nino winter approaching, the drying may be quite limited, we shall see.
I thought the same thing. The radar last night looked like we would get slammed with wind and rain but nada. I hope you are correct and our dry season won't be so dry this year.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I agree Keep CV season would appear to be mostly over. We will have to look closer to home for any mischief
look for that which lifts south west towards the north northeast

side winders could be 3 of em maybe
Space Shuttle Endeavor atop the Modified 747 Carrier Aircraft passing over New Orleans Sept 19th, 2012 en route to Texas, then California.





Quoting BahaHurican:
This is the quietest the continent has looked since April....
the last time we see temps like this it was late march early april
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Wednesday 19 September 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 30.11 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 55.0°F
Dewpoint: 40.3°F
Humidity: 57 %
Wind: WNW 5 mph



actually this is more like mid march temps

the last we seen till now
Link

Endeavour
65. NYX
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I agree Keep CV season would appear to be mostly over. We will have to look closer to home for any mischief


Wilma was a CV in October.
Did Sanba make landfall in Russia? If so, it might be the only one on record.
Accuweather say cold for S FL on the OCT 1
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Accuweather say cold for S FL on the OCT 1

Yes!
China polluting. MODIS satellite photo today

70. MTWX
Quoting LargoFl:


Think their low in Missoula, Montana is a little off....

Edit: And Portland, Maine too... And Portland, Oregon... And Amarillo, Texas... And Pierre, South Dakota... And Mobile, Alabama... And Colorado Springs, Colorado... And Little Rock, Arkansas...


Guess that map is all kinds of messed up...
Quoting NYX:


Wilma was a CV in October.
it was an area of disturb weather from an upper level low over the carb south of grand cayman
Can someone tell the GFS this isn't summertime with that big ridge over the east coast, lol, also look at the Caribbean. It would appear that the MJO would be set to return sometime in Oct. the wildcard as to whether we see something big happen down there will be windshear.



TCHP still looks plenty enough to support a hurricane.



Also this is just my opinion, but I think Oscar will be this season's final, major hurricane. After that 1 to 2 more storms from trough splits and a straggler way out in the Atlantic.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Accuweather say cold for S FL on the OCT 1

Btw, can you give me a link to that forecast?
Quoting Patrap:
Space Shuttle Endeavor atop the Modified 747 Carrier Aircraft passing over New Orleans Sept 19th, 2012 en route to Texas, then California.





Going to California...on a big jet plane

Not to cold but not hot they say 60 as a low!:)
Link
Quoting 12george1:

Btw, can you give me a link to that forecast?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Can someone tell the GFS this isn't summertime with that big ridge over the east coast, lol, also look at the Caribbean. It would appear that the MJO would be set to return sometime in Oct. the wildcard as to whether we see something big happen down there will be windshear.



TCHP still looks plenty enough to support a hurricane.



Also this is just my opinion, but I think Oscar will be this season's final, major hurricane. After that 1 to 2 more storms from trough splits and a straggler way out in the Atlantic.

The GFS looks like an autumn pattern to me. High over the NE and Canada, solid trough off the east coast. Look at the 500mb heights, too.

(during the summer, the pressure differential is much less defined, and the 500mb heights aren't anywhere near as strongly defined)

While the TCHP looks solid, shear likely isn't terribly nice based just on MSLP and 500mb height differences.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Not to cold but not hot they say 60 as a low!:)
Link

Yeah, not too cold, but certainly better than a low of 76F today in West Palm Beach!
HPC say it going to be cold and wet for Nov-Dec-Jan and Feb for FL







79. MTWX
Besides a handful of scattered showers across Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan, and a thunderstorm or two in Florida... The entire CONUS is rain free!!

Link
New invest in EPAC.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep932012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209191739
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012091918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932012
EP, 93, 2012091918, , BEST, 0, 120N, 970W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Recent runs from the ECMWF, GFS, and their respective ensembles are hinting at areas of low pressure in the western Caribbean by the ends of their runs. As I mentioned on my blog (written yesterday) we may see something start brewing in this area in the first week of October. The longwave trough over the US moving out and the forecasted return of a weak MJO pulse would favor activity in this area of the Atlantic. Climatology also shows us that the western Caribbean is the area to watch during this time of year.

Quoting MTWX:
Besides a handful of scattered showers across Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan, and a thunderstorm or two in Florida... The entire CONUS is rain free!!

Link
yes it feels good to see the sun here in florida once again..been awhile, storms over
New Invest 94L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209191738
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
Quoting wxmod:
China polluting. MODIS satellite photo today

they will pay for that pollution in their population as we did in the early industrial age..humans never learn from others mistakes.
Quoting kwgirl:
I thought the same thing. The radar last night looked like we would get slammed with wind and rain but nada. I hope you are correct and our dry season won't be so dry this year.


Here too we were expecting more rain. Isolated pockets around Ft Myers did receive a good soaking 4". My Stratus rain guage 24° total was only .73 but I'll take it
Quoting MTWX:


Think their low in Missoula, Montana is a little off....

Edit: And Portland, Maine too... And Portland, Oregon... And Amarillo, Texas... And Pierre, South Dakota... And Mobile, Alabama... And Colorado Springs, Colorado... And Little Rock, Arkansas...


Guess that map is all kinds of messed up...
yes i see that..thanks
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Accuweather say cold for S FL on the OCT 1
..i wish, boy i cannot wait for winter to get here, this 9 months or more of summer is brutal..we have about one month of fall, one month of winter and about one month of spring..the rest of the year is HOT summer lol
woke up to beautiful chemtrail skys this morning. Just when you think it's going to be a great day. Poof more aluminum to breath
72 hour forecast,notice the 3 weak tropical waves....
Don't like that big drier than normal area over IL in 78), my area moves out on middle one, but back around planting season. One good thing is in 30s & 50s there was an every other year hot/dry pattern, so maybe we'll get some rain in crucial early summer period next year.

Just missed 30s last night, showed 40 for a low at a few stations around us, imagine some low lying rural spots got there though.
wow its only mid september.................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
136 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

...A FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...

...A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...

.LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
OVER THE REST OF THE INTERIOR BY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
HARD FREEZE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW FROST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REST OF THE INTERIOR.

MEZ007>009-012-NHZ001>004-200145-
/O.CON.KGYX.FZ.W.0001.120920T0300Z-120920T1100Z/
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...ROXBURY...UPTON...
WILSONS MILLS...COBURN GORE...RANGELEY...KINGFIELD...BINGHAM...
JACKMAN...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD... COLEBROOK...
BERLIN...LANCASTER...LITTLETON...NORTH CONWAY
136 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED A KILLING
FREEZE IN THE LAST WEEK...AND THE REMAINING AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON TONIGHT.

&&

$$

VTZ003-004-007-192045-
/O.NEW.KBTV.FZ.W.0007.120920T0400Z-120920T1200Z/
ORLEANS-ESSEX-CALEDONIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...ST. JOHNSBURY
409 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...CALEDONIA...ESSEX AND ORLEANS COUNTIES IN
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL KILL UNPROTECTED CROPS
AND OTHER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

&&
The NHC is calling for Nadine to become extra-tropical on Thursday.

Quoting sheople:
woke up to beautiful chemtrail skys this morning. Just when you think it's going to be a great day. Poof more aluminum to breath


Wow, conspiracy sheep, who fooled you into believing that?

I'm quite sure all that aluminum ( o_0 ) isnt affecting your breathing.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
HPC say it going to be cold and wet for Nov-Dec-Jan and Feb for FL









"Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow" lol
According to the GFS, snow is coming looks like from a Clipper system:

12z CMC
114 hours


144 hours


168 hours

Quoting ncstorm:
12z CMC
114 hours


144 hours


168 hours

Good looking out, for a second there my eyes deceived me as I thought the last image said 989 mb.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good looking out, for a second there my eyes deceived me as I thought the last image said 989 mb.


yeah, I had to squint myself..its 999 mb
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Wow, conspiracy sheep, who fooled you into believing that?

I'm quite sure all that aluminum ( o_0 ) isnt affecting your breating.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEfJO0-cTis

This documentary might help. "Why in the world are they Spraying"

Who has kept you asleep for all these years?
the 12z Euro which is running now is not so enthused as the CMC with the TC crossing Florida and heading up the east coast..but the potential is there it seems





105. 7544
nice blob south of dr gotta ask is that ex92L blowing up again tia





Link

Any thoughts on this Blob which is growing and seems to have circulation?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rb.h tml
Melting Arctic Ice Could Bring A Harsh New England Winter. Then again, it may not. There are too many variables in play. WBUR Radio has an interesting interview that focuses on changes in the Arctic, and how melting there may displace cold air south into the USA; here’s an excerpt: “Some weather researchers are predicting we could be in for a rough winter this year due to melting ice thousands of miles away in the Arctic Ocean. Research shows Arctic ice melted at a record pace this summer, melting to the smallest area ever observed. Scientists say that could mean more extreme weather this winter
Quoting sheople:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEfJO0-cTis

This documentary might help. "Why in the world are they Spraying"

Who has kept you asleep for all these years?


Debunked: What In The World Are They Spraying?

The basic premise of the film is:

Normal Contrails fade away quickly
Scientists have talked about geoengineering using aluminum sprayed from planes
Since 1999, trails have been observed to persist for a long time
Tests in various locations at ground level have found different levels of aluminum
Monsanto has genetically engineered aluminum resistent crops
The government denies any spraying or geoengineering is going on
THEREFORE: The trails are aluminum being sprayed as part of a secret government geoengineering project.
Normal contrails can persist and spread
That reasoning is somewhat suspect even if you accept all the points. But where it really falls down is that it’s based on a false assumption – that “normal” contrails quickly fade away. In reality, normal contrails can persist for hours, and spread out to cover the sky. Whether they do this or not is entirely dependent on the atmospheric conditions that the plane is flying through, so it depends on the weather, and on the altitude of the plane. This is something that has been observed since 1921. Just look at any book on the weather, like this one from 1981:

They tested sludge, not water

So the film is based on a false premise, and builds upon it to an inevitable false conclusion. But what about the aluminum tests? ............



It goes on and on
A few decent convective bursts over Africa. Might squeeze out one more Cape Verde type..
#111 tropical analyst

"GULLIBLE" would have been a kinder term
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm going to say this in the nicest way I can.

You are horribly unintelligent.

You have no nice way of saying things though:)

I'm back from school, hello everyone. I see Nadine is still alive and the AOI is up to 20%. I also have a cold and I am having a terrible day.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. REST OF PUERTO RICO REMAINED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AS WELL AS
TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED A SLOT OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE...WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER HE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. SJU-GFS 3KM AGL WIND
STREAMLINES SHOW WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...WITH STREAMERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EL YUNQUE RAIN
FOREST AND CONTINUING NORTHWEST TO SAN JUAN METRO AREA. ANOTHER
AREA AFFECTED WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN A
MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ALSO...MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE SOME MORE...AS A
TROPICAL WAVE/INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BETWEEN DAY 5 THROUGH 8...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL COOL DOWN A
LITTLE BIT...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ AND TISX UNTIL AT LEAST 19/22Z.
AFTER THAT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 20/17Z BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z. ALSO...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TKPK AND TNCM. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10
TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 25KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 90 / 20 20 40 40
STT 79 90 79 89 / 20 20 50 50
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Melting Arctic Ice Could Bring A Harsh New England Winter. Then again, it may not. There are too many variables in play. WBUR Radio has an interesting interview that focuses on changes in the Arctic, and how melting there may displace cold air south into the USA; here’s an excerpt: “Some weather researchers are predicting we could be in for a rough winter this year due to melting ice thousands of miles away in the Arctic Ocean. Research shows Arctic ice melted at a record pace this summer, melting to the smallest area ever observed. Scientists say that could mean more extreme weather this winter


The UK had about 20 years of mild winters - until 2009-10 when we had our coldest winter since the 60s. This was due to the jet stream dragging cold air down from Greenland. The following two winters were also relatively cold, but not as bad as 2009-10.

The unusual jet stream activity has been linked to record Arctic Ocean ice melt. I understand how this could be a factor in summer, but not in winter, when ice area is not far below the long term average.

The US could experience similar.
Quoting wxchaser97:

You have no nice way of saying things though:)

I'm back from school, hello everyone. I see Nadine is still alive and the AOI is up to 20%. I also have a cold and I am having a terrible day.

Good afternoon. Everyone has a cold the first couple weeks of school. I'm already over mine though :)

Lot of convection south of Haiti, is that ex 92L?

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
HPC day 7 have EX 92L going to the GOM as a 1012MB LOW


not with a cold front slicing through the basin.;)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
According to the GFS, snow is coming looks like from a Clipper system:


Not for me, something to watch though.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Good afternoon. Everyone has a cold the first couple weeks of school. I'm already over mine though :)

Lot of convection south of Haiti, is that ex 92L?


I hope I get over it soon, I got 5 tests tomorrow and a cold isn't going to help me.
I think that convection is from ex-92L.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm going to say this in the nicest way I can.

You are horribly unintelligent.
I have no idea what you guys are debating, but this is hilarious.
Quoting SouthTampa:
I have no idea what you guys are debating, but this is hilarious.


Some conspiracy theorists (there's a lot of them on the Internet) think the US government is controlling the weather. Sad, but true.
I mentioned the cold nights in northern Minnesota at the end of Dr. M's last blog comment section. To add to that, some records were broken across east-central Wisconsin this morning (link):


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
930 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN...


LOW PREVIOUS
CITY TEMP RECORD YEAR(S)
----------------------------------------------

ANTIGO 29 31 1991,1979

MANITOWOC 34 34 1901

MERRILL 27 30 1929

OSHKOSH 30 32 1929

RHINELANDER 28 30 1929

STEVENS POINT 28 31 1902

And a chilly maximum temperature at the NWS office in Marquette, MI yesterday:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1043 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...RECORD DAILY COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE TODAY...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WAS 45 DEGREES AT THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...LOCATED IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP. THIS BROKE
THE PREVIOUS COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 52 DEGREES SET IN 1980.

WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
LOCATED IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP DATE BACK TO 1961.
Blob Alert #13.

The Grothar deep-analysis model of the blob indicates a continuous clump of convection.







Quoting 47n91w:
And a chilly maximum temperature at the NWS office in Marquette, MI yesterday:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1043 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...RECORD DAILY COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE TODAY...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WAS 45 DEGREES AT THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...LOCATED IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP. THIS BROKE
THE PREVIOUS COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 52 DEGREES SET IN 1980.

WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
LOCATED IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP DATE BACK TO 1961.

This map is from the NWS in Grand Rapids, it shows the low temperature from last night and another map shows average first frost. It got pretty cold in places with record lows. My PWS had a low of 39F last night and that is coming from metro Detroit.


The Grothar deep-analysis model

aka

G'dam
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Good afternoon. Everyone has a cold the first couple weeks of school. I'm already over mine though :)

Lot of convection south of Haiti, is that ex 92L?



Seems that there are yesses all around. I remember the NHC and Masters saying that 92L could tap into a better environment once it reaches the central Carribean and it seems to be benefiting from the less dry air and possibly friction with the land itself. It still has a ways to go, but it might be enough to warrant a circle.

94L soon? That area east of Bermuda seems to be acquiring tropical characteristics fast. Almost impossibly so, but we've seen Michael develop in the same region and look like nothing, and then go to our first official major in the blink of an eye. This thing seems as though it will likely develop.
Quoting Grothar:
Blob Alert #13.

The Grothar deep-analysis model of the blob indicates a continuous clump of convection.








I was going to call this area a blob but I didn't know if it was official:)
I think the idea of spraying aluminum on us is a little far out there. I have a picture of me taken at a conference I attended on this. Take my word, there is no truth to it.

By the beginning of October the MJO should pay us a visit possibly outside the COD! And with a persistent PNA and developing Greenland ridging, our longwave trough looks to stay in our neighborhood for a while(note, there might be a brief respite the first couple of days October)!

This might pull whatever developes in the southwest Caribbean up across Hispaniola, Cuba, The Bahama's or even South Florida before a cold front comes and swooshes it out to sea(as it appears now, the GOM's closed until further notice).

There's no doubt fronts will start stalling well into the Caribbean which can easily trigger cyclogenesis.
Quoting weatherbro:


not with a cold front slicing through the basin.;)


That front is supposed to pull out to the northeast by Friday and not making it much further south than Cape Canaveral, at least according to the discussion from Melborne, so the HPC forecast is quite possible.
Quoting Grothar:
I think the idea of spraying aluminum on us is a little far out there. I have a picture of me taken at a conference I attended on this. Take my word, there is no truth to it.


If I only had a heart, yeah that stuff can cause health problems too.
That was deleted as soon as it appeared:


thanks Neo....
12z Euro shows future Miriam paying a visit to the Baha Peninsula:

Quoting Twinkster:
This season is shutting down fast. Area favorable for late season activity climatalogically aren't that favorable this year. Could see 1 or 2 late season TS or weak hurricanes from lingering cold fronts in GOM, or western carib but we aren't getting any Wilma's this year


Thank God, I was out of power for 5 days following that (%$#$&%##)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



---------

83. Tropicsweatherpr 1:57 PM EDT on September 19, 2012 +3
New Invest 94L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209191738
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
That was deleted as soon as it appeared:

94L
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY, MAINE
1212 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT WOODSTOCK AFFECTING GRAFTON COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW IF THE ROAD IS
SAFE FOR TRAVEL. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET.
I'd expect a TCFA on this West Pac disturbance soon, it's currently at medium chance of development.

New HPC 8 to 14days

Another year of early season September fronts blowing thru TX, has shut down our season in TX. Winter is coming
Quoting Neapolitan:
That was deleted as soon as it appeared:

94L


There was an error as the position was the same as the one for 93E.
gonna be COLD in the northern east coast states tonight..freeze warnings in 3 or so states......
What a season in the Atlantic, we have had 4 straight hurricanes:



EPAC has also been busy, Daniel was my favorite one to track over there:


Quoting SFLWeatherman:

I see a jelly fish when I look at that, still iffy where Nadine goes.
hmmm GFS at 192 hours, maybe a nor'easter in 7 days?....
yep, nor'easter goes all the way to maine..GFS at 216 hours..
I got to go to drivers ed, bye everyone. I think Nadine will remain tropical for a little bit longer.
Have you ever watched a stream of bubbles form on the side of a soda glass or champagne glass? You can't see the nucleation source for the CO2 gas but it is there and doesn't move with the fluid. I have seen that same point effect in the gulf with clouds, and often wonder what is under that point source that causes the amazing destabilization and condensation of clouds.

In the afternoon I see it all the time as the ground or sea surface heats up. But pre-dawn?

It seems odd to me that four or 5 areas in the gulf in the pre-dawn hours would suddenly, simultaneously, begin nucleating streams of clouds ahead of an approaching hurricane.
Then to see the "pre-condensed" areas become dry bands that help weaken and destabilize a hurricane eye, was great.
If we haven't figured out how to do that, we should.
anyone think the disturbance near Bermuda will become Oscar? I say yes.
.......................GFS at 204 hours, get ready north east.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm going to say this in the nicest way I can.

You are horribly unintelligent.
Not sure how old you are wx13. But I am a older female and just looking at your post it reminds me of something my 10 year old grandson would say...No respect anymore... Sorry I had to interject, but that really PO'd me... Very uncalled for and very immature... You may be knowledgeble in the science of weather, but not in the science of being human..
Quoting wxchaser97:

If I only had a heart, yeah that stuff can cause health problems too.


Well, you don't eat aluminum, you wrap it, but not around cheese and bologna.
P.S. if Nadine comes back around, my son wants to nick name it a Typhoomerang!

He watches alot of Dragonriders of Berk.
deadly storms in paraquay s.america
Quoting GTcooliebai:
What a season in the Atlantic, we have had 4 straight hurricanes:



EPAC has also been busy, Daniel was my favorite one to track over there:




Is like Emilia took exactly the same path of Daniel's
Quoting allancalderini:
anyone think the disturbance near Bermuda will become Oscar? I say yes.
I think it will be but only a TS
Quoting LargoFl:
.......................GFS at 204 hours, get ready north east.
Could that be the thing by bermuda
Ew I don't want the storm near Bermuda to develop...
Quoting wxchaser97:

This map is from the NWS in Grand Rapids, it shows the low temperature from last night and another map shows average first frost. It got pretty cold in places with record lows. My PWS had a low of 39F last night and that is coming from metro Detroit.




Hit 29F around Mount Pleasant. 39 is definitely pretty chilly for your area. Feels like fall for sure now.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ew I don't want the storm near Bermuda to develop...
Me neither, because I already said, I think Oscar would be the last major hurricane of the season.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Me neither, because I already said, I think Oscar would be the last major hurricane of the season.
It'll probably be a deformed looking storm....
Quoting wxchaser97:
I got to go to drivers ed, bye everyone. I think Nadine will remain tropical for a little bit longer.


Don't run over your instructor!
The 21z advisory package for Nadine brings its ACE--Accumulated Cyclone Energy--up to 10.625 units. This brings the total for the season up to 84.1 units. The storm with the highest ACE this season is Michael, at 16.5 units, while the storm with the second highest is Leslie, at 14.8 units. Will Nadine receive the gold or silver medal? Or will it keep its current bronze medal?

We shall see.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 21z advisory package for Nadine brings its ACE--Accumulated Cyclone Energy--up to 10.625 units. This brings the total for the season up to 84.1 units. The storm with the highest ACE this season is Michael, at 16.5 units, while the storm with the second highest is Leslie, at 14.8 units. Will Nadine receive the gold or silver medal? Or will it keep its current bronze medal?

We shall see.
Perhaps you missed my post...You may want to check out #153....Thanks for looking
This disturbance takes up half the Atlantic, lol.



It doesn't look much less tropical than Nadine does though.
Ashley Mercer, a student of David Keith, the scientist associated with climate geo-engineering, contributed to a book called 'Engineering the Climate: The Ethics of Solar Radiation Management'. I'll be getting it next week. From the synopsis it looks like the establishment is ready to attempt justifying what they call solar radiation management, which is done with aerosols, aka chemtrails. http://www.amazon.com/dp/0739175408/ref=pe_175190 _21431760_M3T1_ST1_dp_1
Well with the way Nadine is carrying on I think she'll have the most A.C.E.She wants to live oooooooooon.Die all ready!.
one degree short of 60°F today for a high
forecast of 61°F was short 2 degrees

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Wednesday 19 September 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 30.11 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 58.8°F
Dewpoint: 42.8°F
Humidity: 55 %
Wind: SE 11 mph
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Not sure how old you are wx13. But I am a older female and just looking at your post it reminds me of something my 10 year old grandson would say...No respect anymore... Sorry I had to interject, but that really PO'd me... Very uncalled for and very immature... You may be knowledgeble in the science of weather, but not in the science of being human..

I think you're being a bit dramatic...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think you're being a bit dramatic...
lemme guess. 13?
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
lemme guess. 13?

15. I made my account two years ago.
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
lemme guess. 13?
15 now.
It's been reinvested after being deleted earlier. Yes, it's the due-east-of-Bermuda swirl:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209192141
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012091918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012091918, , BEST, 0, 310N, 510W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Nea,they fixed 94L.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think you're being a bit dramatic...
Ya think?...After you directly stated that someone was horribly unintelligent..........? I think not
I respectfully don't know what the HPC is seeing. Models are adamant in bringing a cold front through all of Florida by Mid-next week.

The North Atlantic Ridge that is currently blocking this front will move east in response to upstream PNA ridging doing likewise this weekend. This will enable a full latitude trough to set up shop over the eastern 2/3eds of the nation by next week. This has been shown for three days now.

By mid-late next week I believe Orlando will see highs in the low 80's(lows in the 50's and 60's) under a sunny/breezy NW flow!!!
Wish I could be 15 again. High School, football, baseball, basketball, chasing cheerleaders, mowing grass and planting sweet potatoes for spending money, NO BILLS. Had just gotten a drivers license, ahh man those were the days. My first truck I installed a pioneer radio with a cassette deck just under the 8 track player. No internet.....life was so simple then.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nea,they fixed 94L.

The ATCF initiated it at 1738z, deactivated it also at 1738z, then deleted it at 1739z. It was just now brought back to life. Is that what you mean by "fixed"?
184. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think you're being a bit dramatic...


Sincerely this part passed the line: "but not in the science of being human..."
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
lemme guess. 13?
Good guess.....The kid is being a kid
Quoting Neapolitan:
The ATCF initiated it at 1738z, deactivated it also at 1738z, then deleted it at 1739z. It was just now brought back to life. Is that what you mean by "fixed"?


The position was 12N-97W of 93E.
187. JLPR2
TW in the CAtl is looking pretty.



Maybe this will be the wave that will finally bring rain to Caribboy.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

15. I made my account two years ago.
ahhh
By the looks of it the Haitians appears to be getting hammered with heavy rain again, sure hope it doesn't cause any heavy flooding for them.
Nea,94L was the same as 93E.

Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Wish I could be 15 again. High School, football, baseball, basketball, chasing cheerleaders, mowing grass and planting sweet potatoes for spending money, NO BILLS. Had just gotten a drivers license, ahh man those were the days. My first truck I installed a pioneer radio with a cassette deck just under the 8 track player. No internet.....life was so simple then.
I know how you feel. College is OK but i miss highschool
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The position was 12N-97W of 93E.
Oh, I see what you're saying. The ATCF had initially assigned the system at 12N/97W to the Atlantic, then automatically (or maybe manually) dropped it, then created a new entry a few minutes later correctly assigning it to the EPac as 93L. (And now the ATCF has gone ahead and initialized the east-of-Bermuda mess as 94L.)
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
I know how you feel. College is OK but i miss highschool
When I was 15 had respect of older people...Guess it is no longer the case
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
I know how you feel. College is OK but i miss highschool


LOL I miss college!!!!!
Quoting JLPR2:
TW in the CAtl is looking pretty.



Maybe this will be the wave that will finally bring rain to Caribboy.
at first glance your profile picture looks like Mr.PotatoMan to me
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This disturbance takes up half the Atlantic, lol.



It doesn't look much less tropical than Nadine does though.
maybe 30% at 8pm?
Quoting JLPR2:
TW in the CAtl is looking pretty.



Maybe this will be the wave that will finally bring rain to Caribboy.
knowing his luck or it will move north or dissipate.
198. JLPR2
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
at first glance your profile picture looks like Mr.PotatoMan to me


Hmm... someone needs glasses. XD
Quoting JLPR2:
TW in the CAtl is looking pretty.



Maybe this will be the wave that will finally bring rain to Caribboy.


Fingers are still crossed :) Though the GFS wants to eject the moisture associated with the wave to the north. Too bad, and hopefully it won't materialize lol.
200. JLPR2
Quoting allancalderini:
knowing his luck or it will move north or dissipate.


Ah yes, rather unlucky fellow, though eventually some rain should reach him.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
When I was 15 had had respect of older people...Guess it is no longer the case
I know. Kids have no respect theese days. 7 year olds with cell phones, snobby kids everywhere. They need all of their usless junk taken away so they can appreciate the TRUE meaning of life.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Good guess.....The kid is being a kid

I think it's a bit unfair to judge me based on one comment. Most people on here know I respect the adults and don't cause trouble (except for the other night...again, sorry Wash. Lol.).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think it's a bit unfair to judge me based on one comment. Most people on here know I respect the adults and don't cause trouble (except for the other night...again, sorry Wash. Lol.).
wx13.....I just judge on what I see and hear... I have nothing else to base it on... I read and I make my opinion, not one of my favorite posts I have seen... Not good at all
I have a great idea!
Why don't we all get back to talking about the weather.
I'll go first. Wow, look at this, it is raining in Florida. :)

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
one degree short of 60°F today for a high
forecast of 61°F was short 2 degrees

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Wednesday 19 September 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 30.11 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 58.8°F
Dewpoint: 42.8°F
Humidity: 55 %
Wind: SE 11 mph

Anybody have any idea about the high TCFP in the CGOM?
Antarctic Ice Record:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/09/1 9/antarctic-sea-ice-sets-another-record/
Quoting Grothar:
I think the idea of spraying aluminum on us is a little far out there. I have a picture of me taken at a conference I attended on this. Take my word, there is no truth to it.



I'm taking my lunch at work, trying to quietly catch up on the blog. The operative word here being "quietly". You made me crack up out loud you BAD BAD man! :)
Whatever you call it (CATL low, Bermuda spin) is circulating nicely towards the end:

Quoting musterion:
Antarctic Ice Record:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/09/1 9/antarctic-sea-ice-sets-another-record/
The Antarctic sea ice is 4% larger than the climatological norm. Meanwhile, the Arctic sea is 49% smaller than the norm. That's a difference more than 12 times as big.

Ouch.

You know, peer-reviewed climate science publications don't delve into stock derivatives and NASDAQ quotes, because that's obviously not their field. Why, then, do financial magazines feel the need to spout off about climate, something about which their writers clearly know nothing?

Forbes needs to stick with making lists of the world's richest people, and leave the science to, you know, scientists...
Quoting redwagon:

Anybody have any idea about the high TCFP in the CGOM?


I don't know much about why, but here's a graphic: ;)


This will play a factor in it:
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Antarctic sea ice is 4% larger than the climatological norm. Meanwhile, the Arctic sea is 49% smaller than the norm. That's a difference more than 12 times as big.

Ouch.

You know, peer-reviewed climate science publications don't delve into stock derivatives and NASDAQ quotes, because that's obviously not their field. Why, then, do financial magazines feel the need to spout off about climate, something about which their writers clearly know nothing?

Forbes needs to stick with making lists of the world's richest people, and leave the science to, you know, scientists...


People ought to stick to what they know? None of us here do. Myself included. What makes you an expert? I'll bet you're writing a big long reply right now that'll humble me and put me in my place!
It'll probably have a little winky thing at the end too.
Quoting Slamguitar:


I don't know much about why, but here's a graphic: ;)


This will play a factor in it:

Thank you very much, looks like they expect something to jump basins?
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
I know. Kids have no respect theese days. 7 year olds with cell phones, snobby kids everywhere. They need all of their usless junk taken away so they can appreciate the TRUE meaning of life.


7-year-olds having cellphones, that's just ridiculous.
Quoting musterion:
Antarctic Ice Record:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/09/1 9/antarctic-sea-ice-sets-another-record/
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


People ought to stick to what they know? None of us here do. Myself included. What makes you an expert?

Perhaps this is a good time to re-emphasize information I posted in regards to this on the previous thread:

The mechanism for reducing sea ice in the Antarctic basin is not the same as the mechanism for the Arctic.

The Arctic is all ocean, the Antarctic is a continent surrounded by water. Sea ice in the Antarctic can increase both from freezing on the water and from land ice calving off into the ocean. Of course this is a far oversimplified description, a better explanation should be left to scientists studying the cryosphere. Such scientists have stated that the two poles cannot be compared directly, and that sea ice increases in the Antarctic are still consistent with planetary warming (and to be expected).
Quoting Bobbyweather:


7-year-olds having cellphones, that's just ridiculous.


Makes it hard for kids to respect adults when the adult leaders repeatedly look like fools. And you have adults that are unintelligent, etc etc. Though talking about weather would be nice instead of this lol.
Quoting Bobbyweather:


7-year-olds having cellphones, that's just ridiculous.
It is.
Quoting sheople:


I will say this as respectfully as I can

Your arrogance is overwhelming

And I bet you have not even given the documentary a glance

You honestly expect me to believe aluminum and the government modify the weather? There's no proof. The YouTube video you posted was nothing but a bundle of myths.
Quoting sheople:


I will say this as respectfully as I can

Your arrogance is overwhelming

And I bet you have not even given the documentary a glance


A conspiracy is a conspiracy. *Cough*
Can someone please tell me why New York, and L.A is getting a shuttle, but Houston were NASA is located isn't.. I understand FL but NY and L.A. this isn't fair
Quoting TXHuRRicanE:
Can someone please tell me why New York, and L.A is getting a shuttle, but Houston were NASA is located isn't.. I understand FL but NY and L.A. this isn't fair


Bigger cities with more people to see them I suppose.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think it's a bit unfair to judge me based on one comment. Most people on here know I respect the adults and don't cause trouble (except for the other night...again, sorry Wash. Lol.).

Knowing you well enough, you are kind to others except for the other night and sometimes in chat.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


People ought to stick to what they know? None of us here do. Myself included. What makes you an expert? I'll bet you're writing a big long reply right now that'll humble me and put me in my place!
It'll probably have a little winky thing at the end too.
This made me laugh hard!.

I saw your post TWA13.Just glad we can move on.
Quoting sheople:
http://aircrap.org/chemtrails-proof-insider-15/33 30 15/

Maybe another source might help


From Aircrap.org? Lol. No. Thats not a credible source.
To post a link that people can click on directly, highlight some text in your post (any text will do), click the "Link" button above the window you're using to compose your post, and paste the link into the popup that appears. Click OK and you're done.

This allows people to access the information you're providing more quickly and accurately than depending on them to copy-paste the link.

You can always tell when it's a quiet day on the continent just by reading the comments here...

What is considered a credible source?

sincerely
Quoting sheople:
What is considered a credible source?

sincerely


Something from a university, a government entity, a non-profit organization that doesnt the word crap in its website...something like that. If you can provide something like that Im sure everyone will read it with more belief.
Texas always looking for rain chances. Other than this nothing on horizon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
328 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2012

LATE NEXT WEEK...12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SHOW AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM SENDING SOME MOISTURE INTO TEXAS WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN.

Quoting sheople:
What is considered a credible source?

sincerely


Generally a source with an established peer-review system is considered credible. Ideally, the source should have a financial incentive or legal obligation to maintain credibility through truthful reporting. Facts provided by a credible source should be independently verifiable (in other words, always be skeptical if you cannot find the same information in more than one spot or if the study is impossible for others to reproduce).

The more radical the ideas presented by the source, the more rigorous should be your scrutiny of their sources and methods.
While some people try to make claims based on "credible sources", the TWO is almost out. I think the AOI has a chance of making it to a TS or STS and it may go up to 30%.

Quoting wxchaser97:
While some people try to make claims based on "credible sources", the TWO is almost out. I think the AOI has a chance of making it to a TS or STS and it may go up to 30%.

I might say 40 at how good it looks
Quoting wxchaser97:
While some people try to make claims based on "credible sources", the TWO is almost out. I think the AOI has a chance of making it to a TS or STS and it may go up to 30%.

I personally don't want it to develop because it'll break the streak of male hurricanes.I'm kinda rooting for this streak to continue because it's interesting.
Quoting allancalderini:
I might say 40 at how good it looks

I don't think they would make a jump like that but we will have to see.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I personally don't want it to develop because it'll break the streak of male hurricanes.I'm kinda rooting for this streak to continue because it's interesting.

Hey Wash, it has been a long streak but all come to an end eventually. Maybe it won't be with this AOI and I would like to see how long it can continue. You never know, some other storms up there this year have became canes.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I personally don't want it to develop because it'll break the streak of male hurricanes.I'm kinda rooting for this streak to continue because it's interesting.

Who knows...maybe it'll become a Category 3 or Category 4.

Seriously though...Michael wasn't even supposed to form and it became a major hurricane.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who knows...maybe it'll become a Category 3 or Category 4.

Seriously though...Michael wasn't even supposed to form and it became a major hurricane.


Michael rocked!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I personally don't want it to develop because it'll break the streak of male hurricanes.I'm kinda rooting for this streak to continue because it's interesting.
the more you underestimate them the faster they form ,and I waiting For Rafael he sounds powerful I think he will form in the western or southern Caribbean.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who knows...maybe it'll become a Category 3 or Category 4.

Seriously though...Michael wasn't even supposed to form and it became a major hurricane.
Micheal was special.(I mean he was holding the name of a famous basketball player/pop star).So he couldn't let us down :).Oscar is know for the meats..(Oscar Mayers)
for me the most fun to track in the Atlantic was Michael in the Eastern Pacific was Daniel.
92W is very close to becoming the 26th tropical depression of the season.

Quoting wxchaser97:

I don't think they would make a jump like that but we will have to see.
The GFS doesn't really do much with it, if it were name it would probably be for a day or two. It should merge with the front off the East Coast, just waiting on a piece of shortwave energy to come down from Canada to give it the boost, that may also allow Nadine to finally move too.

GFS Loop
Quoting washingtonian115:
Micheal was special.(I mean he was holding the name of a famous basketball player/pop star).So he couldn't let us down :).Oscar is know for the meats..(Oscar Mayers)
Oscar Wilde one of the best writers ever :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
92W is very close to becoming the 26th tropical depression of the season.

this year the Western Pacific has been active.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND
OF FLORES IN THE AZORES.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting washingtonian115:
I personally don't want it to develop because it'll break the streak of male hurricanes.I'm kinda rooting for this streak to continue because it's interesting.

Oscar is probably the least threatening name on all of the hurricane lists combined, lol. Honestly, this is exactly what I pictured he'd look like:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACCOMAPANIES A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
LOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
I win :)
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND
OF FLORES IN THE AZORES.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting allancalderini:
Oscar Wilde one of the best writers ever :)
Then Oscar will be boring then!.Lol J/K.
Well I'll be darned, 94L does go up to 40%.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Quoting allancalderini:
I might say 40 at how good it looks
Good call.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Then Oscar will be boring then!.Lol J/K.
the portrait of Dorian gray is one of my favorite books ever.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Well I'll be darned, 94L does go up to 40%.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
told you;)
Subtropical Storm Oscar seems fitting somehow. Let's see what it does!
Quoting allancalderini:
told you;)

Yeah yeah, now I think it has a good chance of development so sorry Wash.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yeah yeah, now I think it has a good chance of development so sorry Wash.
Nooooo!.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good call.
Thanks :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Subtropical Storm Oscar seems fitting somehow. Let's see what it does!

Everytime I hear Oscar I think of the hotdog and then get hungry. The name sounds fitting and I think it has a good chance of development.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nooooo!.
Lol maybe it would become a cat 1 just for you.
Baja California needs to keep an eye on 93E, it has a very high chance of developing and some models, especially the ECMWF, have it impact the peninsula.

Disorganized now:

Quoting allancalderini:
Lol maybe it would become a cat 1 just for you.

Nah a cat3 like Michael and then head out to sea affecting no one would be nice.
Is it just me or did the pressure drop?

...NADINE MOVING VERY LITTLE...
8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 19
Location: 37.2°N 31.9°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
267. etxwx
Quoting TXHuRRicanE:
Can someone please tell me why New York, and L.A is getting a shuttle, but Houston were NASA is located isn't.. I understand FL but NY and L.A. this isn't fair


The Houston Chronicle's Eric Berger on why Houston didn't get an orbiter: SciGuy Blog

NASA's report: REVIEW OF NASA’S SELECTION OF DISPLAY LOCATIONS FOR THE SPACE SHUTTLE ORBITERS
Long range the GFS has been keeping the West Pacific very active, and it's also been showing development in the Bay of Bengal, 12z today showed a decent little storm out there. It's been a while since we've seen anything in that area. They sure can get mean when they form there though.
Is there a problem in the NHC they did not color the AOI in orange and tomorrow last year Ophelia develop may be a coincidence if Oscar forms tomorrow.
Dichotomized blob.


Kinda looks like Nadine in a way right now, I see color on the NHC homepage.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Kinda looks like Nadine in a way right now, I see color on the NHC homepage.
now yes Before it didn`t look at my computer.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Long range the GFS has been keeping the West Pacific very active, and it's also been showing development in the Bay of Bengal, 12z today showed a decent little storm out there. It's been a while since we've seen anything in that area. They sure can get mean when they form there though.

It would continue an active season, I think. What did it show for the Atlantic?
Quoting allancalderini:
now yes Before it didn`t look at my computer.

Alright, it did act up for me for a second.
The big picture showing 93E, 94L, Nadine, and the US.
My blog from earlier today.

Quoting allancalderini:
LOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
I win :)


Must be plenty thunder or something....
Quoting wxchaser97:
The big picture showing 93E, 94L, Nadine, and the US.

Could that wave south of 94L develop into something later on?
Quoting allancalderini:
Could that wave south of 94L develop into something later on?

Ex-92L? It could possibly later down the road but not that likely.
279. viman
WARNING - WARNING -- WILL ROBINSON - BLOB ALERT...
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ex-92L? It could possibly later down the road but not that likely.
No I mean the wave east of the Antilles.
Antarctica Site Posts Near-Record Cold

This month, Russia's Vostok station has registered some remarkably low late-winter temperatures, even for the coldest known spot on Earth.
As of Sept. 18, the average temperature for the month so far was -73.0 degrees C (-99.4 F), or -6.7 degrees C (-12.0 F) below normal.
Three nights have have seen the temperature break through the minus-80-degree mark (-112 F). Coldest of these, on Sept. 15, bottomed at -84.2 degrees C (-119.6 F).
Link
Quoting allancalderini:
No I mean the wave east of the Antilles.

I don't think it has much model support but anything could happen.
283. JLPR2
Quoting allancalderini:
Could that wave south of 94L develop into something later on?


GFS thinks the wave will give 94L plenty of energy and eventually a piece of the wave might merge with it.

Though it's looking nicer at the moment.
284. BDAwx
I have a question for the one who posted the documentary - which I'm watching right now (and its kinda interesting). why is it horrible for people to spray aluminum into the atmosphere to intentionally modify the weather at the cost of pollution, but not horrible to emit oxides of carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen from burning fossil fuels and unintentionally modify the weather?
Quoting BDAwx:
I have a question for the one who posted the documentary - which I'm watching right now (and its kinda interesting). why is it horrible for people to spray aluminum into the atmosphere to intentionally modify the weather at the cost of pollution, but not horrible to emit oxides of carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen from burning fossil fuels and unintentionally modify the weather?

It will be interesting to read the responses to this....
Link to an abstract of an article published in Geophysical Research Letters on the relationship between warming northern latitudes and the behavior of the Rossby Wave (the wave encircling each hemisphere that can be more-or-less approximated by the jet stream). Bottom line - whatever winter weather you get you'll be stuck in for a longer period. Trofs and ridges both will be slower to move.

Link

Jeff alluded to this in an earlier post.

Incidentally, I haven't (yet) seen this in the literature, but as the increased frequency of blocking begins in the fall, then circulations that both encourage and discourage the formation of TCs will persist longer. Could be feast or famine, depending on where one is in relation to, say, a persistent low shear upper ridge.
With ex 92L seeming to have given us a glimpse of its COC in radar, at least at the end of the loop GTcoolie provided, and the wave approaching the Antilles, and the very fast and almost inevitable spin-up of future Oscar/94L, I think the tropics may surprise us this coming week. We are far from done, it seems this season has ebbs and flows like crazy, lots of activity, and then none, and then a lot again.

Plus, Nadine's been still churning out there. I think she's subtropical now, as was hinted at in earlier discussions from the NHC that she might be for a time. Which would explain her drop in pressure too.
(click to enlarge)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Subtropical Storm Oscar seems fitting somehow. Let's see what it does!


Let's just exhaust the name, okay? Easily the worst name on any of the lists. Hardly threatening, and just a boring name for a tropical cyclone in general.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Let's just exhaust the name, okay? Easily the worst name on any of the lists. Hardly threatening, and just a boring name for a tropical cyclone in general.


Oscar's wild!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Let's just exhaust the name, okay? Easily the worst name on any of the lists. Hardly threatening, and just a boring name for a tropical cyclone in general.


In a week, you'll be making jokes:
"And the Oscar goes to....
Newfoundland!

...And possibly Bermuda on the way."
No change to 93E.

EP, 93, 2012092000, , BEST, 0, 121N, 978W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Pressure down a millibar with 94L.

AL, 94, 2012092000, , BEST, 0, 308N, 518W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WHXX01 KWBC 200050
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0050 UTC THU SEP 20 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120920 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120920 0000 120920 1200 120921 0000 120921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 51.8W 31.3N 53.0W 32.2N 54.8W 33.3N 57.3W
BAMD 30.8N 51.8W 31.2N 52.6W 31.9N 53.9W 32.8N 55.8W
BAMM 30.8N 51.8W 31.2N 52.7W 32.0N 54.4W 33.0N 56.5W
LBAR 30.8N 51.8W 31.4N 52.1W 32.1N 52.5W 33.3N 54.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120922 0000 120923 0000 120924 0000 120925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.3N 59.8W 36.4N 63.3W 40.8N 63.5W 47.3N 58.7W
BAMD 33.7N 57.9W 35.1N 60.8W 37.4N 61.9W 44.5N 60.0W
BAMM 33.9N 58.8W 35.7N 62.0W 39.6N 63.0W 47.3N 60.1W
LBAR 34.2N 56.0W 35.8N 59.7W 37.8N 59.1W 37.9N 54.6W
SHIP 57KTS 56KTS 55KTS 44KTS
DSHP 57KTS 56KTS 55KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 51.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 30.9N LONM12 = 51.0W DIRM12 = 230DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 31.4N LONM24 = 50.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
Nadine remains a 45 knot tropical storm as well.
Quoting BDAwx:
I have a question for the one who posted the documentary - which I'm watching right now (and its kinda interesting). why is it horrible for people to spray aluminum into the atmosphere to intentionally modify the weather at the cost of pollution, but not horrible to emit oxides of carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen from burning fossil fuels and unintentionally modify the weather?


Though, in this day and age, all who burn fossil fuels know what impact it could have...so not even completely unintentional!

I try to keep an open mind about everything. I don't totally discount someone/company/gov trying to seed the atmosphere, if even for experimental purposes, the call of the dollar will make people do all sorts. Whether it's worse than knowingly using polluting fuels, I don't know, maybe-maybe not. Which is worse? Who would know until the long run? What I do see, is the majority of people don't care about polluting the planet anyway, especially if it's the lazier or cheaper option. So, if chem-trails are real, they'd only bother a small percentage of people. Sadly, most people don't care about much beyond their bubble...aside from the current celebrity happenings. the majority of people have been sufficiently dumbed down.
297. BDAwx
Quoting BDAwx:
I have a question for the one who posted the documentary - which I'm watching right now (and its kinda interesting). why is it horrible for people to spray aluminum into the atmosphere to intentionally modify the weather at the cost of pollution, but not horrible to emit oxides of carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen from burning fossil fuels and unintentionally modify the weather?


A fair amount of what was attributed to this spraying of salts of aluminum, barium, copper, and potassium can be attributed to the climate change as described by CO2 increase. I personally feel that increasing CO2 is a more likely scenario being that they quote 20million tons of Aluminum is being sprayed - Aluminum is hard and expensive to extract from its ore and is not naturally occurring in its pure form so I can't see people spraying the atmosphere with it.
To spare the blog, if you want to see the rest of my contention with this documentary see my blog.
298. BDAwx
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Though, in this day and age, all who burn fossil fuels know what impact it could have...so not even completely unintentional!

I try to keep an open mind about everything. I don't totally discount someone/company/gov trying to seed the atmosphere, if even for experimental purposes, the call of the dollar will make people do all sorts. Whether it's worse than knowingly using polluting fuels, I don't know, maybe-maybe not. Which is worse? Who would know until the long run? What I do see, is the majority of people don't care about polluting the planet anyway, especially if it's the lazier or cheaper option. So, if chem-trails are real, they'd only bother a small percentage of people. Sadly, most people don't care about much beyond their bubble...aside from the current celebrity happenings. the majority of people have been sufficiently dumbed down.


Thats a good point!
I too try to keep an open mind, and it would be very disconcerting if some organization were actually intentionally modifying the weather to control the economy in their favor, or to use it as a weapon. I just don't see this being their method of choice for two main reasons:
1. the 20million tons of aluminum in aerosol form they claim to use each year would likely be detrimentally expensive due to the process of extracting/recycling aluminum being convoluted and costly.
2. the people in the documentary fail to show much believable evidence of it actually happening, so it really boils down to being my word against theirs. Some of the things in the documentary are kinda ridiculous though; not saying they're false, but hard to believe.

But you're absolutely correct, only a small amount of people would even care anyway.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Everytime I hear Oscar I think of the hotdog and then get hungry. The name sounds fitting and I think it has a good chance of development.

I always think of Oscar on Sesame Street
With the rate this thing has been organizing today, I wouldn't be surprised to see classification tomorrow night. Models seem to be in general agreement that this will peak as a strong tropical storm...give or take 80 knots.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With the rate this thing has been organizing today, I wouldn't be surprised to see classification tomorrow night. Models seem to be in general agreement that this will peak as a strong tropical storm...give or take 80 knots.


Lol, I think classification tomorrow is possible or at least to raise the chance to high.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Antarctic sea ice is 4% larger than the climatological norm. Meanwhile, the Arctic sea is 49% smaller than the norm. That's a difference more than 12 times as big.

Ouch.

You know, peer-reviewed climate science publications don't delve into stock derivatives and NASDAQ quotes, because that's obviously not their field. Why, then, do financial magazines feel the need to spout off about climate, something about which their writers clearly know nothing?

Forbes needs to stick with making lists of the world's richest people, and leave the science to, you know, scientists...


Not for nothing and not saying that I do not disagree that comparing 4% to 49% is skewing the facts...

HOWEVER, what amount of ice does the 4% represent vs. the amount of ice the 49% represents. (I don't know - but just throwing that out there) I have read some articles that state antarctic ice is not as important (climatologically) as arctic ice.
Quoting Dakster:


Not for nothing and not saying that I do not disagree that comparing 4% to 49% is skewing the facts...

HOWEVER, what amount of ice does the 4% represent vs. the amount of ice the 49% represents. (I don't know - but just throwing that out there) I have read some articles that state antarctic ice is not as important (climatologically) as arctic ice.

Quoting Walshy:
Antarctica Site Posts Near-Record Cold

This month, Russia's Vostok station has registered some remarkably low late-winter temperatures, even for the coldest known spot on Earth.
As of Sept. 18, the average temperature for the month so far was -73.0 degrees C (-99.4 F), or -6.7 degrees C (-12.0 F) below normal.
Three nights have have seen the temperature break through the minus-80-degree mark (-112 F). Coldest of these, on Sept. 15, bottomed at -84.2 degrees C (-119.6 F).
Link




2007, 2010, and 2012 top 3 records for highest amount of Southern Hemisphere sea ice level.

2007: 16.23238million square km
2012: 16.14588million square km(still growing)
2010: 16.05034million square km

How are the records for Northern Hemisphere for these 3 years?
Just got back from playing an open mic night, I see we got code orange on 94L and a floater as well!

306. BDAwx
Quoting Dakster:


Not for nothing and not saying that I do not disagree that comparing 4% to 49% is skewing the facts...

HOWEVER, what amount of ice does the 4% represent vs. the amount of ice the 49% represents. (I don't know - but just throwing that out there) I have read some articles that state antarctic ice is not as important (climatologically) as arctic ice.


when it comes to climatology, which is more important, the actual amount of ice lost/gained, or the difference as a percent compared to the average?
Quoting Slamguitar:
Just got back from playing an open mic night, I see we got code orange on 94L and a floater as well!



Hey Slam. I didn't see your question on my blog until this evening. Felt really bad after I made that post about being sick. If you didn't see it yet, this is what I said:

"It depends on how much it interacts with the upper low. Right now they are more or less collocated, which would not allow for much tropical development in the near-term. However, as we saw with Beryl, the temperature difference between the low-level warm core and the upper tropospheric cold core can, after awhile, generate instability, effectively abolishing the upper low and creating a warm core."
It has been a while...good evening all!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey Slam. I didn't see your question on my blog until this evening. Felt really bad after I made that post about being sick. If you didn't see it yet, this is what I said:

"It depends on how much it interacts with the upper low. Right now they are more or less collocated, which would not allow for much tropical development in the near-term. However, as we saw with Beryl, the temperature difference between the low-level warm core and the upper tropospheric cold core can, after awhile, generate instability, effectively abolishing the upper low and creating a warm core."


Thanks for the response, even if it was a wee bit late. I don't know what it is about sub-tropical storms, but they interest me even more than just your plain-jane tropical systems, haha.
Quoting nigel20:
It has been a while...good evening all!


Indeed it has. How are you doing, nigel?
Quoting Slamguitar:


Thanks for the response, even if it was a wee bit late. I don't know what it is about sub-tropical storms, but they interest me even more than just your plain-jane tropical systems, haha.


I agree. I think it's because we don't fully understand their evolution, as well as the fact that they can form pretty much anywhere. Imagine the headline:

"...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES..."
Quoting washingtonian115:
Then Oscar will be boring then!.Lol J/K.
You talking about the guy who got jail time for being flamboyantly homosexual at a time when the word itself was considered a sin???? That Oscar???

On those grounds, I think Oscar the storm might be more of a social shocker than one would expect.... lol

Quoting KoritheMan:


Indeed it has. How are you doing, nigel?

I've been a bit busy with school over the past couple of weeks.
how have you been?
Quoting nigel20:

I've been a bit busy with school over the past couple of weeks.
how have you been?


Have a nasty cold at the moment (actually kinda felt like the flu after I made my blog last night). Really sucked that I had to work yesterday. :/
Quoting Slamguitar:
Just got back from playing an open mic night, I see we got code orange on 94L and a floater as well!


Subtropical storm Oscar in the making, should see the designation in 1-2 days.

Quoting nigel20:
It has been a while...good evening all!

Good to see you Nigel.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I agree. I think it's because we don't fully understand their evolution, as well as the fact that they can form pretty much anywhere. Imagine the headline:

"...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES..."

That would be something else, we have still so much to learn about the weather.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Have a nasty cold at the moment (actually kinda felt like the flu after I made my blog last night). Really sucked that I had to work yesterday. :/

Hopefully you'll get better soon!:)
94L will be a lot like Hurricane Otto of 2010, I think. It will start off subtropical, then turn tropical and peak as a 70-80mph storm.

Subtropical storms seem to like the letter O, for example: Otto, Olga, Otto again, and now Oscar.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Subtropical storm Oscar in the making, should see the designation in 1-2 days.


Good to see you Nigel.


That would be something else, we have still so much to learn about the weather.

Same here.
Quoting Slamguitar:


Hit 29F around Mount Pleasant. 39 is definitely pretty chilly for your area. Feels like fall for sure now.

I thought 39F was cold this morning doing my CoCoRaHS check-in, this weekend should be cool again.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Have a nasty cold at the moment (actually kinda felt like the flu after I made my blog last night). Really sucked that I had to work yesterday. :/
Something definitely must be going around,especially now that school has started, because I woke up this morning with a sore throat, and on top of that I had a test in Physics. Hope you feel better.
Quoting Grothar:
Dichotomized blob.


Between the Twave and the frontal / trough, looks like rain chances here are pretty high.

Quoting nigel20:
It has been a while...good evening all!
Hey, there, nige... hope things r ok with u...
It seems as if we'll be getting some relief from the hot and dry conditions that we've been experiencing.
Quoting nigel20:
It seems as if we'll be getting some relief from the hot and dry conditions that we've been experiencing.
Good night to you Nigel, long time no see, how are things?
94L is looking pretty good, wouldn't be surprised to see a subtropical storm soon.
Quoting BDAwx:


when it comes to climatology, which is more important, the actual amount of ice lost/gained, or the difference as a percent compared to the average?

The Lowest Southern hemisphere sea ice recorded was on February 28 1993 with 1.30987million square km that year the sea ice grew to 15.37472million square km during winter.

Currently
February 25 2012: Minimum 1.96297million square km currently at 16.14588million square km and still growing.
Quoting wxchaser97:
94L is looking pretty good, wouldn't be surprised to see a subtropical storm soon.
I hope it doesn't get named.
Quoting nigel20:
It seems as if we'll be getting some relief from the hot and dry conditions that we've been experiencing.
I sure hope so. The heat here has been ridiculous the last 2 weeks, especially after noon.... hot, muggy and mostly no breeze.

Hopefully some overcast skies will rescue us for a couple days....
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I hope it doesn't get named.


Why?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I hope it doesn't get named.
I hope it does. I say a cat 1 for peak.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Have a nasty cold at the moment (actually kinda felt like the flu after I made my blog last night). Really sucked that I had to work yesterday. :/

Suck it up big boy.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I hope it doesn't get named.

I would like it to get named as it has a chance to make it to a strong TS/hurricane if it can get it's act together.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Why?
Because I said earlier that I think Oscar would become a major hurricane and probably the last of the season.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Between the Twave and the frontal / trough, looks like rain chances here are pretty high.

Hey, there, nige... hope things r ok with u...

Hey Baha! I'm good...hope you're good as well!

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good night to you Nigel, long time no see, how are things?

I've been a bit busy, but I'm good otherwise. How are you doing, GT?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Suck it up big boy.

Do I have to suck it up since I'm sick?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Because I said earlier that I think Oscar would become a major hurricane and probably the last of the season.
I doubt I think Rafael or Sandy will be the last of the season and I say Rafael will be a major.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I sure hope so. The heat here has been ridiculous the last 2 weeks, especially after noon.... hot, muggy and mostly no breeze.

Hopefully some overcast skies will rescue us for a couple days....

I'm amazed at how hot and relatively dry it has been across most of the Caribbean.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I hope it doesn't get named.


I hope the NHC does their job if it meets objective classification standards.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Because I said earlier that I think Oscar would become a major hurricane and probably the last of the season.


Oh you poor boy. lol
Quoting allancalderini:
I doubt I think Rafael or Sandy will be the last of the season and I say Rafael will be a major.
I was going based off the long range GFS and CFS models which were showing a system in the Western Caribbean and with the amount of TCHP, I could see a major hurricane there.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Suck it up big boy.


I did. Otherwise I wouldn't have went to work.
As has already been pointed out, the Arctic and Antarctic are quite different systems. The Arctic is water surrounded by land. The Antarctic is land surrounded by water. One thing they have in common is that both places are so cold to start with that ice forms in winter despite the ongoing warming (except along the Palmer Peninsula).

Wikipedia:

"The Antarctic ice cover is highly seasonal, with very little ice in the austral summer, expanding to an area roughly equal to that of Antarctica in winter. Consequently, most Antarctic sea ice is first year ice, up to 1 meter (3.28 ft) thick."

With the destruction of multi-year Arctic sea-ice and melting of Arctic sea-ice in the summer, the Arctic sea-ice is starting to resemble the Antarctic sea-ice.
Quoting nigel20:

I'm amazed at how hot and relatively dry it has been across most of the Caribbean.
Hi Nigel.
Quoting nigel20:

I'm amazed at how hot and relatively dry it has been across most of the Caribbean.
I think it might have something to do with high pressure in that area preventing tropical waves from entering the Caribbean or the waves that do make it lose the fight with dry air. Also, the faster trades aren't helping anything get organized. The atmosphere does seem to be behaving like an El Nino because development has been outside the MDR.
94L:

If anyone was interested, Global Hawk is about to go into TS Nadine.

Hey all! Im new here (if you cant tell) and I am somehow interested in the tropics despite being from Arizona. Long time lurker, been tracking since 2009, and im a bit young (16). I say Nadine should be post-tropical pretty soon!
Quoting AZweather13:
Hey all! Im new here (if you cant tell) and I am somehow interested in the tropics despite being from Arizona. Long time lurker, been tracking since 2009, and im a bit young (16). I say Nadine should be post-tropical pretty soon!


Welcome to the blog! You'll find quite a few of us interested in the tropics aren't from the "traditional" hurricane prone areas.
September 12 was the 24 th anniversary of hurricane GIlbert here in Jamaica...it's still the most costly natural disaster in Jamaica's history.


Quoting allancalderini:
Hi Nigel.

Hey allan!
Quoting nigel20:
September 12 was the 24 anniversary of hurricane GIlbert here in Jamaica...it's still the most costly natural disaster in Jamaica's history.


Yeah Gilbert was a monster but if I remember correctly Nicole is the wettest ts of the island ever record right?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

...NADINE BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 31.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF FLORES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
Quoting Slamguitar:


Welcome to the blog! You'll find quite a few of us interested in the tropics aren't from the "traditional" hurricane prone areas.

True that, got a few Michiganders on the blog right now.
...NADINE BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY...
11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 19
Location: 37.1°N 31.4°W
Moving: ENE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

NADINE CONTINUES TO BE A RESILIENT TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS AN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 45
KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT THE VALUE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH NADINE STAYING OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS. WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER NADINE WILL LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS QUICKLY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE TRANSFORMATION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SOMETHING THAT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THIS
WILL OCCUR.

AFTER MEANDERING DURING MOST OF TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST
THAT NADINE IS STARTING TO TURN EASTWARD. HOWEVER...USING A LONGER
12-HOUR MOTION YIELDS AN INITIAL MOVEMENT OF EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 3 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
TAKING NADINE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IN
STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A DEEPING TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. ONE SOLUTION...IS FOR NADINE TO BE
PULLED EASTWARD BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE SECOND SCENARIO IS FOR
THE CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE CENTRAL-ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REMAIN BETWEEN THESE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS...BUT THE NEW TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS
IS THE RESULT OF A FASTER SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION PREDICTED BY THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL MOTION FOR NOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 37.1N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 36.6N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 35.5N 28.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/1200Z 34.2N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0000Z 32.8N 26.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/0000Z 32.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0000Z 31.5N 25.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0000Z 31.0N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

NADINE CONTINUES TO BE A RESILIENT TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS AN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 45
KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT THE VALUE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH NADINE STAYING OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS. WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER NADINE WILL LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS QUICKLY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE TRANSFORMATION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SOMETHING THAT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THIS
WILL OCCUR.

AFTER MEANDERING DURING MOST OF TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST
THAT NADINE IS STARTING TO TURN EASTWARD. HOWEVER...USING A LONGER
12-HOUR MOTION YIELDS AN INITIAL MOVEMENT OF EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 3 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
TAKING NADINE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IN
STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A DEEPING TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. ONE SOLUTION...IS FOR NADINE TO BE
PULLED EASTWARD BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE SECOND SCENARIO IS FOR
THE CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE CENTRAL-ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REMAIN BETWEEN THESE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS...BUT THE NEW TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS
IS THE RESULT OF A FASTER SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION PREDICTED BY THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL MOTION FOR NOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 37.1N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 36.6N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 35.5N 28.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/1200Z 34.2N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0000Z 32.8N 26.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/0000Z 32.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0000Z 31.5N 25.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0000Z 31.0N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Mostly just lurk, read and learn.
The Arctic and ensuing discussions fascinate me. We lived, for many years, just south of the Arctic circle at 63.7"N. The winter of 1999/2000 was the last year we experienced -60" temperatures until this past winter when the temp fell to -60" very briefly, according to the people who live there now. Earth cycles seem much more noticeable "up there" than down here in "civilization". An enlightening and fascinating link Link some might enjoy :)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


People ought to stick to what they know? None of us here do. Myself included. What makes you an expert? I'll bet you're writing a big long reply right now that'll humble me and put me in my place!
It'll probably have a little winky thing at the end too.


If you are talking about the member who goes by the name...Neapolitan.

A little over a year ago he claimed to be a computer guy associated with websites.


AL, 94, 2012092000, , BEST, 0, 308N, 518W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



I kinda want this to form into a storm and then even a hurricane. As long as no land is significantly affected I'm good, you can't stop surf.
NPAC storm heading towards Alaska.

Quoting allancalderini:
Yeah Gilbert was a monster but if I remember correctly Nicole is the wettest ts of the island ever record right?

Nicole is actually the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Jamaica with just over 37 inches. The wettest was 1909 greater antilles hurricane with over 130 inches of rain.
The forecast track shifted way south for Nadine but at the end of the forecast period the NHC expects some strengthening again.
Tropical Storm Nadine:

It is late and I got school so good night everyone. It will be interesting to see what 94L looks like in the morning and it's percentage chance of development is.
Quoting wxchaser97:
It is late and I got school so good night everyone. It will be interesting to see what 94L looks like in the morning and it's percentage chance of development is.


Good night.
370. etxwx
Via Christian Science Monitor:

Protecting mangroves is cheaper than building coastal protection, expert says
By Johann Earle, AlertNet / September 19, 2012

Excerpt: Preserving mangrove forests helps regulate rainfall, reduce the risk of disasters from extreme weather and sea-level rise, provide breeding grounds for fish, and capture carbon dioxide to slow climate change.

Keeping coastal mangrove forests intact or replanting them is cheaper than building man-made structures to protect coastlines threatened by climate change, according to the head of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

“Our message is, ‘Don’t assume that man-made or engineered solutions are the only ones to protect our coasts and rivers and to provide drinking water. We are not against engineering in the absence of natural solutions, but look at what nature has to offer,’ ” urged Julia Marton-Lefevre at the recent World Conservation Congress in South Korea.


Continued here.
At this rate, I think Nadine's going to be around until October. Her circulation's as persistent as Ernesto's.
The blog is eating my posts or it doesn't like utube video's. mmmmm

The 2012 Arctic's Record Breaking Ice Melt.
Video.
94L and Nadine:

Quoting ABlass:
Mostly just lurk, read and learn.
The Arctic and ensuing discussions fascinate me. We lived, for many years, just south of the Arctic circle at 63.7"N. The winter of 1999/2000 was the last year we experienced -60" temperatures until this past winter when the temp fell to -60" very briefly, according to the people who live there now. Earth cycles seem much more noticeable "up there" than down here in "civilization". An enlightening and fascinating link Link some might enjoy :)


Where was that?
Snow anyone???

I'm off to bed...good night all!
I see how it is. Everyone's going to bed now that I'm making a blog.

WELL FINE! HOW ABOUT I JUST LEAVE? I'M SURE MOST OF YOU WON'T MISS ME!

*runs off crying*
it ain't over til it's over.

goodnight all.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I see how it is. Everyone's going to bed now that I'm making a blog.

WELL FINE! HOW ABOUT I JUST LEAVE? I'M SURE MOST OF YOU WON'T MISS ME!

*runs off crying*


Don't forget the finger snap.
Quoting Grothar:


Where was that?


Near Dawson City in the Yukon :) Beautiful country.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I see how it is. Everyone's going to bed now that I'm making a blog.

WELL FINE! HOW ABOUT I JUST LEAVE? I'M SURE MOST OF YOU WON'T MISS ME!

*runs off crying*

so no blog tonight???
Bugger, now I got nothing to do. might go twiddle my thumbs.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Snow anyone???



Snow?? What's a snow? I vaguely remember that term being used a few winters ago, but I'm not sure...
Quoting KoritheMan:
I see how it is. Everyone's going to bed now that I'm making a blog.

WELL FINE! HOW ABOUT I JUST LEAVE? I'M SURE MOST OF YOU WON'T MISS ME!

*runs off crying*


I'm still here Kori. I like to read your blog.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I see how it is. Everyone's going to bed now that I'm making a blog.

WELL FINE! HOW ABOUT I JUST LEAVE? I'M SURE MOST OF YOU WON'T MISS ME!

*runs off crying*


i Just logged in...what happened to you.??? what happened? Why ?
I'm always up late enough to read your blog Kori!
Quoting ABlass:


Near Dawson City in the Yukon :) Beautiful country.


I was at 67 deg, but in Bodo, Norway.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I see how it is. Everyone's going to bed now that I'm making a blog.

WELL FINE! HOW ABOUT I JUST LEAVE? I'M SURE MOST OF YOU WON'T MISS ME!

*runs off crying*


I will be up here for a long time...I'll read it
Seems like Nadine likes being the star of the show, the only named storm of the Atlantic. Maybe once we get Oscar it'll knock some sense into her and she'll be on her merry post-tropical way.
Quoting Grothar:


Don't forget the finger snap.


Right.

*snaps finger*
Quoting AZweather13:
Seems like Nadine likes being the star of the show, the only named storm of the Atlantic. Maybe once we get Oscar it'll knock some sense into her and she'll be on her merry post-tropical way.


For all we know, she could turn south into the warmer waters, all the way to the Cape Verde islands, loop back west and kep churning until she hits Florida as a major.

Quoting LostTomorrows:


For all we know, she could turn south into the warmer waters, all the way to the Cape Verde islands, loop back west and kep churning until she hits Florida as a major.



That would be the most interesting track I would probably ever see a tropical cyclone take.
Quoting AZweather13:


That would be the most interesting track I would probably ever see a tropical cyclone take.


I don't feel like looking for it, but there was a pre-naming storm that formed near the Azores and moved southwestward as a depression for about a week before strengthening into a tropical storm. It crossed Florida and hit Louisiana as a hurricane. I wanna say... the 1920s? But I might be wrong.
GFS 114 hrs. system approaching the Lesser Antilles

Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS 114 hrs. system approaching the Lesser Antilles

Patty if 94L becomes Oscar.
Blog update.

I'm still leaving though.
Try this again ...
Obviously the "link" thingie doesn't work like I thought it would.
http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/articles/e llesmere-island-eocene-fossils
is the link I was trying to post ... my bad
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't feel like looking for it, but there was a pre-naming storm that formed near the Azores and moved southwestward as a depression for about a week before strengthening into a tropical storm. It crossed Florida and hit Louisiana as a hurricane. I wanna say... the 1920s? But I might be wrong.

you mean this one???

Quoting AussieStorm:

you mean this one???



Yeah, that one.
Quoting ABlass:
Try this again ...
Obviously the "link" thingie doesn't work like I thought it would.
http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/articles/e llesmere-island-eocene-fossils is the link I was trying to post ... my bad

Let me help you.... Link
240 hrs. one low:



264 hrs. another low:

Went out to KSC to see Endeavour off this morning. Click pic to see the series.

A powerful storm killed five people and injured 81 in Paraguay as it blew across the southern cone of South America on Wednesday, ripping roofs off ramshackle homes and leaving thousands of people without shelter. No deaths were reported outside Paraguay, but power outages were widespread and many people had to be evacuated as rivers overran their banks and coastal areas flooded. Wind gusts reached above 100 kph (62 mph) and heavy rains raked Paraguay, southern Brazil, northern Argentina and Uruguay. Near Paraguay’s capital, Asuncion, four soldiers died and 14 were injured when their dormitory roof caved in, and a falling sign killed a teenage girl outside a shopping center in the suburb of Mariano Roque Alonso. Paraguay’s interior minister, Carmelo Caballero, said the national emergency office would donate materials so that people can rebuild. Meteorologist Eliana Klering in Brazil said the cold front caused heavy downpours and flooding, with winds that “reached 100 kilometers per hour and ripped tiles off roofs.” Uruguay’s government closed shopping malls and shut down its ports as a precaution, suspending ferry service to Argentina’s capital of Buenos Aires. The wind broke windows in several buildings in Uruguay’s capital and toppled about a hundred trees. Three of the country’s highways were cut off by flooding. The low-pressure system also sucked humidity from northwestern Argentina, where high winds and unseasonably hot temperatures combined to spark at least eight wildfires.
Nadine a little earlier today..
Post # 398, I wonder how accurate those very old plots are--this one over 111 years old. Remember tracking these things must have been so primitive back then-depending on ship reports and such. No satellites then!
Quoting Skyepony:
A powerful storm killed five people and injured 81 in Paraguay as it blew across the southern cone of South America on Wednesday, ripping roofs off ramshackle homes and leaving thousands of people without shelter. No deaths were reported outside Paraguay, but power outages were widespread and many people had to be evacuated as rivers overran their banks and coastal areas flooded. Wind gusts reached above 100 kph (62 mph) and heavy rains raked Paraguay, southern Brazil, northern Argentina and Uruguay. Near Paraguay%u2019s capital, Asuncion, four soldiers died and 14 were injured when their dormitory roof caved in, and a falling sign killed a teenage girl outside a shopping center in the suburb of Mariano Roque Alonso. Paraguay%u2019s interior minister, Carmelo Caballero, said the national emergency office would donate materials so that people can rebuild. Meteorologist Eliana Klering in Brazil said the cold front caused heavy downpours and flooding, with winds that %u201Creached 100 kilometers per hour and ripped tiles off roofs.%u201D Uruguay%u2019s government closed shopping malls and shut down its ports as a precaution, suspending ferry service to Argentina%u2019s capital of Buenos Aires. The wind broke windows in several buildings in Uruguay%u2019s capital and toppled about a hundred trees. Three of the country%u2019s highways were cut off by flooding. The low-pressure system also sucked humidity from northwestern Argentina, where high winds and unseasonably hot temperatures combined to spark at least eight wildfires.
Found a satellite image of the cold front sweeping across Paraguay late Tuesday night

360 ABlass: Mostly just lurk, read and learn.The Arctic and ensuing discussions fascinate me.
We lived, for many years, just south of the Arctic circle at 63.7"N. The winter of 1999/2000 was the last year we experienced -60" temperatures until this past winter when the temp fell to -60" very briefly, according to the people who live there now. Earth cycles seem much more noticeable "up there" than down here in "civilization".
An enlightening and fascinating link
[to Eocene EllesmereIsland] some might enjoy :)

Fixed your link.
Quoting BDAwx:


Thats a good point!
I too try to keep an open mind, and it would be very disconcerting if some organization were actually intentionally modifying the weather to control the economy in their favor, or to use it as a weapon. I just don't see this being their method of choice for two main reasons:
1. the 20million tons of aluminum in aerosol form they claim to use each year would likely be detrimentally expensive due to the process of extracting/recycling aluminum being convoluted and costly.
2. the people in the documentary fail to show much believable evidence of it actually happening, so it really boils down to being my word against theirs. Some of the things in the documentary are kinda ridiculous though; not saying they're false, but hard to believe.

But you're absolutely correct, only a small amount of people would even care anyway.


Congratulations to you for watching the entire video! I gave up quite early on... couldn't justify spending over an hour on it.

Your points here and in your personal blog are well taken. However for my money, the clincher is "20 million tons of aluminum". And not just because of the cost.

Found this reference, which says that the total world production of aluminum is about 40 million tons per year. Seems like someone would notice if half of the total world output was going missing year after year. Alternatively, it is hard to imagine that anyone could hide the extraction and production of 50% more aluminum than is being acknowledged by official industry sources.

In particular, the commodities traders should have a pretty good handle on this, and it strains credibility that all of them could be a party to this conspiracy... or bribed to keep silent!

But then I guess that's what makes it a conspiracy theory... lots of things that have to be kept secret and hidden from the general public.

Wonder how the chemtrails conspirators manage to do it, when governments in general, and the US government in particular, seem constantly to be leaking real secrets like water through a sieve!
-- EstherD
Seems to be a spin just NW of the Cayman Islands on the Satellite, might be interesting to watch today.
by changing one thing
we change everything
faster and faster
we go
Quoting aspectre:
360 ABlass: Mostly just lurk, read and learn.The Arctic and ensuing discussions fascinate me.
We lived, for many years, just south of the Arctic circle at 63.7"N. The winter of 1999/2000 was the last year we experienced -60" temperatures until this past winter when the temp fell to -60" very briefly, according to the people who live there now. Earth cycles seem much more noticeable "up there" than down here in "civilization".
An enlightening and fascinating link
[to Eocene EllesmereIsland] some might enjoy :)

Fixed your link.


Thank you very, very much :)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Let me help you.... Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

Let me help you.... Link


Thank you aussie, someday I will learn. :)
Quoting ABlass:


Thank you aussie, someday I will learn. :)

your welcome, even I make mistakes sometimes.
I hate it when I can't like photo's or video's.
A new typhoon in the making.

92W







Needs to slow down to keep under the anti-cyclone.




FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 136.3E TO 13.6N 130.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 192132Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 135.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N
138.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM NORTH
OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 191840Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
IMPROVED BANDING INTO AN ELONGATED, YET DEFINED LLCC. RECENT TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING MOISTURE
ENVELOPE AND MAY SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED OVERHEAD, AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY THE TUTT
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT (05-10 KTS). SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO STEADY IMPROVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
15:00 PM JST September 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 13.8N 133.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 13.8N 131.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines

Additional Information
======================

Tropical depression will decelerate while moving westward for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical Depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 2.5 after 24 hours




CMC models have a pair of typhoons in the making.
Quoting EstherD:


Congratulations to you for watching the entire video! I gave up quite early on... couldn't justify spending over an hour on it.

Your points here and in your personal blog are well taken. However for my money, the clincher is "20 million tons of aluminum". And not just because of the cost.

Found this reference, which says that the total world production of aluminum is about 40 million tons per year. Seems like someone would notice if half of the total world output was going missing year after year. Alternatively, it is hard to imagine that anyone could hide the extraction and production of 50% more aluminum than is being acknowledged by official industry sources.

In particular, the commodities traders should have a pretty good handle on this, and it strains credibility that all of them could be a party to this conspiracy... or bribed to keep silent!

But then I guess that's what makes it a conspiracy theory... lots of things that have to be kept secret and hidden from the general public.

Wonder how the chemtrails conspirators manage to do it, when governments in general, and the US government in particular, seem constantly to be leaking real secrets like water through a sieve!
-- EstherD


Conspiracy theories often have such glaring 'inaccuracies'. A few years ago, it was common to hear that the Sarin nerve gas used by Saddam Hussein to kill Kurds, had been given to the Iraqis years before, by the US government.

After reading this on a forum, I decided to research Sarin, and found it was a very unstable compound with a short shelf life. I think it was just a few months, after which it degraded and was unusable. It's very satisfying when you can blow a conspiracy theory completely out of the water with a little nugget of info like that.
rainy day in jamaica today they can use it
Morning all.

Looking at Nadine, I keep feeling that someday I will wake up, check NHC, and find advice #1261 on once-again TS Nadine....
Quoting islander101010:
rainy day in jamaica today they can use it
It's starting to look like we may get a few showers here today as well.

I'm off to work. Later, everybody...
Morning everyone, Nadine and 94L looking good. We Could see 94L chances go up at 8am.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's starting to look like we may get a few showers here today as well.

I'm off to work. Later, everybody...

Later baha, have a good day and hopefully you get some rain if you need it.
Morning, everyone. I wonder if they used the Global Hawk drone as they said they would for this year's hurricanes. They were just talking about it on TWC.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning, everyone. I wonder if they used the Global Hawk drone as they said they would for this year's hurricanes. They were just talking about it on TWC.
One was investigating Nadine last night.
Quoting Thing342:
One was investigating Nadine last night.


Thanks. I wonder if they will publish the findings anywhere public.

Good morning. 94L is definitely trying to acquire tropical characteristics. It's not there yet but I think it will eventually make it. I'm thinking we'll see classification sometime tomorrow.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 94L is definitely trying to acquire tropical characteristics. It's not there yet but I think it will eventually make it. I'm thinking we'll see classification sometime tomorrow.


Good morning MA, I think the percentage should be raised and classification late tonight or tomorrow.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning, everyone. I wonder if they used the Global Hawk drone as they said they would for this year's hurricanes. They were just talking about it on TWC.

Morning aislinnpaps, I don't know but if so that would begin to give a better understanding.
GFS tracks a system into the Caribbean and takes it into the GOM:




Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS tracks a system into the Caribbean and takes it into the GOM:






can i get a link to this model run
Good Morning...
Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS tracks a system into the Caribbean and takes it into the GOM:




Looks like more rain for us
Good Morning folks!............
Quoting java162:


can i get a link to this model run

Allan Huffman's Weather Model and Data Page, it has many models so bookmark it.
Choose which GFS run you are looking for and click the link on that page.
Good morning
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...
Quoting allancalderini:
Good morning

Good morning allan and Wxlogic, hopefully the weather is good where you both are.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Allan Huffman's Weather Model and Data Page, it has many models so bookmark it.
Choose which GFS run you are looking for and click the link on that page.


thanks
Quoting wxchaser97:

Good morning allan and Wxlogic, hopefully the weather is good where you both are.
Likewise I am going to the municipalidad in 10 minutes so that is why I am early my class and I need to sing at 5:45 in the morning and at afternoon is a tradition.
The Canadian Model also has it.

P27L could still surprise us. Will be interesting to see the interaction it will have with the weakening ULL to its W and the stalled out front in the C GOM.

A STS could develop out of this interaction. If the convection blow up to the N of Jamaica keeps up and/or intensifies then something might start "cooking" since it coincides with a small VORT MAX at 500MB.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Good morning allan and Wxlogic, hopefully the weather is good where you both are.


Morning... is cloudy here with some sporadic light PRECIP.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Canadian Model also has it.



Not as aggressive as yesterday but there.
Local 7-day doesnt show it GT..maybe its not our storm..
new brunswick might get yet another hit from something tropical if this track holds true...............
Quoting java162:


thanks

You're welcome, I'm happy to give you helpful resources like that.
50 mph winds with a pressure of 981 millibars...makes sense.

Not really.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 29.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
Invest 93E remains at 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Maybe they mean 991mb? On post #458.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
50 mph winds with a pressure of 981 millibars...makes sense.

Not really.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 29.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


Of course it does, there are some things I just don't get.

Quoting originalLT:
Maybe they mean 991mb? On post #458.

No they mean 981mb, it isn't a typo.
"THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED BY THE
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED BY THE
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES."

Well we know the Global Hawk is out, as for the winds are the really only 50mph?
94L remains at 40%

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WOW that a big one at 384HR!!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW that a big one at 384HR!!

If that is the latest run it actually puts snow in for a good part of the northern US, Link.

Here is an image showing snowfall accumulation.
Nice forecast for International Falls, Minnesota. Wish I was there.

Quoting wxchaser97:

If that is the latest run it actually puts snow in for a good part of the northern US, Link.

Here is an image showing snowfall accumulation.
We don't want no snow drought here in the U.S.That has been one of the biggest reasons the Mid-west is in a drought now and the Mississippi river was at record lows.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nice forecast for International Falls, Minnesota. Wish I was there.


Lucky them, It will happen here soon enough. I've already packed my bags and I'm flying up there today:)

Quoting washingtonian115:
We don't want no snow drought here in the U.S.That has been one of the biggest reasons the Mid-west is in a drought now and the Mississippi river was at record lows.

Another snow drought will just mean more drought so I'm hoping for snow for that as well.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Lucky them, It will happen here soon enough. I've already packed my bags and I'm flying up there today:)


Another snow drought will just mean more drought so I'm hoping for snow for that as well.
They all ready get snow flakes..I'm jealous.Oh well.I will have to wait till December perhaps.With the way the pattern has been it seems it could foreshadow at least a snow event in then.I'm hoping!.Tired of seeing bare ground..
Quoting wxchaser97:

Lucky them, It will happen here soon enough. I've already packed my bags and I'm flying up there today:)


Another snow drought will just mean more drought so I'm hoping for snow for that as well.

Go to school, Isaac.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nice forecast for International Falls, Minnesota. Wish I was there.



Call that low confidence as environment canada says snow isn't happening. :P
James Spann7:55 AM - Public
Fog over Gadsden... from the ABC 33/40 SKYCAM network...

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Go to school, Isaac.

Bye everyone, I have to go to school but so does Cody:)
Have a great day and there is a thunderstorm over me right now.