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Category 2 Sanba closes in on Korea; 92L enters the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:40 PM GMT on September 16, 2012

The winds are rising in Busan, South Korea, and heavy rain is lashing the Korean Peninsula and Southern Japan as Category 2 Typhoon Sanba steams northwards at 22 mph. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, but no casualties or heavy damage has been reported thus far. Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba passed over the northern part of Okinawa. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced the eyewall, and recorded a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s). At Kadena Air Force Base, the eye of Sanba missed, passing just to the north. The winds peaked at 56 mph, gusting to 77 mph, at 8:30 am local time, after the eye passed to the northeast, and the base received 6.30" of rain. High wind shear of 25 - 35 knots is now affecting Sanba, and satellite loops show that the typhoon is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and dry air wrapping into the core. Radar out of Korea shows that heavy rains from Sanba cover most of the Korean Peninsula, and heavy rain is likely to be the main threat from Sanba in Korea. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear today, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 22 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba over Okinawa at 6:25 am local time Sunday September 16, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Raw video of Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa, taken by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012 (there were two Category 5 storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific.) The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA. NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory has a spectacular large-scale image of Sanba at Category 5 strength.

Invest 92L entering the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) entering the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the islands today. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased since Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will fall to the 10 - 15 knot range Monday through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Wednesday, Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba on Saturday. The 06Z run of the NOGAPS models indicates some weak development of 92L once it reaches the Western Caribbean, but none of the other reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, if necessary.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.


Hurricane Nadine headed towards the Azores Islands
Hurricane Nadine is heading eastward on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday. However, steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting sar2401:


The subject was two invests, which could develop into nothing or something. If it's something, one will affect the CONUS and the other will affect places like Cube, the Dominican Republic, and, worse, Haiti, and still may affect the CONUS. Your analogy is quite apt, however. It's always better to watch something dangerous while you are protected. Nadine is a cool storm right now, as long as it doesn't hit the Azores. When you are in the cone or, worse, that big white line is going right over your house, the cool factor deteriorates rapidly. I was just asking that certain people remember that storms are not made just for us to track. They can and do destroy property and kill and injure people. Having been there, I do take offense at using the word "cool" to describe developing storms which may do exactly as I've described.


I WAS NOT talking about any current storms AT ALL. Maybe someone else mentioned them, but I definitely did not make any allusion to either invests or Nadine. Again, you're putting words in my mouth.

It's generally not good debating ethics when you try to discount my argument by bringing in something someone else said about a whole different scenario.

You attacked my character by stating it doesn't matter who gets a puck to the face as long as it isn't my grandma. That's what I'm responding to.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How did we get to talking about hockey pucks? Is Don Rickles in the room?

I have no doubt 93L will shoot off to the northeast. I agree with the models.

Grothar….your thoughts on 92L.


Not much at this time. If it does develop, look at the western tip of Cuba later in the week.
503. 7544
Quoting ncstorm:
18z Nogaps 92L-last frame at 180 hours



same a r the eruo then turns it ne toward fla a wilma track ?
507. hamla
Quoting avthunder:
Speaking of awesome, beautiful, etc. - the picture of Sanba that Dr. Masters posted was all of that! Mother Nature really is amazing. And if you look at those two Eddys in the eye sideways, you can see ET.
I think for the vast majority of us on this blog, it goes without saying that we wish no harm to anyone from tropical storms. But since they will happen regardless of what we wish, we watch with fascination.
SAR i agree with you.isaac wasnt cool katrina,rita,ike,cammile,betsy wernt COOL.any thing that trys to form in the gom is not cool.cool is the ice cubes i put in m rum and coke
Quoting Slamguitar:


I WAS NOT talking about any current storms AT ALL. Maybe someone else mentioned them, but I definitely did not make any allusion to either invests or Nadine. Again, you're putting words in my mouth.

It's generally not good debating ethics when you try to discount my argument by bringing in something someone else said about a whole different scenario.

My comments were never directed at you. They were directed at two bloggers who thought it would be "cool" if the invests became named storms. I was answering you because you chose to post, and I responded to your analogy, which I believe is spurious when discussing potentially dangerous storms.

I think I have made my point, as have you. I'd be happy to continue the discussion by WUmail if you'd like.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Oh well 92L and 93L rip
Quoting sar2401:

My comments were never directed at you. They were directed at two bloggers who thought it would be "cool" if the invests became named storms. I was answering you because you chose to post, and I responded to your analogy, which I believe is spurious when discussing potentially dangerous storms.

I think I have made my point, as have you. I'd be happy to continue the discussion by WUmail if you'd like.


Actually, I wouldn't like to continue this.

I would like to apologize to the rest of the blog for getting involved in this topic. Usually I like to read and learn about the tropics to supplement what I learn in my met program. I became one of those people that gets into a useless internet argument that won't change anyone's mind or make the smallest bit of difference. This went too far, and I'd like to end it.

Again, I'm sorry for getting drawn into this, which usually isn't like me. This is a blog for all kinds of people from different backgrounds to learn and peacefully discuss weather and my actions and comments were unnecessary to Dr. Master's blog.

Now let's play nice and share our toys. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
92L down to 10%, 93L remains at 20%.


No shock there, realistically both have a less than 10% chance of development IMO.
No one except the dullest among us wants to see a major hurricane rip into a populated area, especially a poorly-protected one. But there's a lot of difference between that sort of uncompassionate death-wish-for-others ignorance and the desire to watch severe weather develop for the beauty and awe and--let's admit it--sense of excitement it sometimes brings.

I've never understood why some people come into weather forums such as this one--especially during the the heart of hurricane or tornado season--only to begin berating and chastising others for wanting to see hurricanes or tornadoes develop. That seems to me a bit like voluntarily walking into a Vegas casino, playing roulette for awhile, then lecturing the poker players on the evils of gambling. You know when you come in here at this time of year you're going to read comments, sometimes enthusiastic ones, from people interested in tropical weather. And since you know that coming in, why start preaching to them? Or better yet, if you're all that sensitive to the dangers of tropical weather, why even come here at all?
These invest are in interesting......
Anchorage Daily News: Lower elevations escape high winds. Anchorage area remains under a high wind warning until 8 pm Sunday eve.

With some data collection posts on the Hillside not functioning meteorologists say they don't know exactly how high peak winds got overnight.

Unofficial reports coming from Bear Valley had wind speeds peaking at 120 mph and 112 mph at Glen Alps, according to the NWS.

Lower elevations of East Anchorage saw high guests between 30-40 mph overnight and Sunday morning, he said.


Read more here: http://www.adn.com/2012/09/16/2626955/lower-elevat ions-escape-high-winds.html#storylink=cpy
I wish I could speak as well as Nea... Oh well.

Anyways, what's left of Sanba is impacting the Koreas and Japan:



If Nadine strengtens as forecasted, there will be high tides on the Gibraltar channel affecting naval ships to navigate into the Mediterranean....

That will have an effect if THIS happens:

Armada of British naval power massing in the Gulf as Israel prepares an Iran strike

Link

Iran: 'Nothing will remain' of Israel if war starts

Link




Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I wish I could speak as well as Nea... Oh well.

Anyways, what's left of Sanba is impacting the Koreas and Japan:


strongest strom since megi
what was strongest before santa funso? giovanna?
Quoting Neapolitan:
No one except the dullest among us wants to see a major hurricane rip into a populated area, especially a poorly-protected one. But there's a lot of difference between that sort of uncompassionate death-wish-for-others ignorance and the desire to watch severe weather develop for the beauty and awe and--let's admit it--sense of excitement it sometimes brings.

I've never understood why some people come into weather forums such as this one--especially during the the heart of hurricane or tornado season--only to begin berating and chastising others for wanting to see hurricanes or tornadoes develop. That seems to me a bit like voluntarily walking into a Vegas casino, playing roulette for awhile, then lecturing the poker players on the evils of gambling. You know when you come in here at this time of year you're going to read comments, sometimes enthusiastic ones, from people interested in tropical weather. And since you know that coming in, why start preaching to them? Or better yet, if you're all that sensitive to the dangers of tropical weather, why even come here at all?


Got to be honest with you, I can't say I'm innocent for calling people out for wanting hurricanes to hit them, usually to miss out on school, but I am certainly in agreement with you as to why some of the people on here, a weather blog where - you know, people talk about weather, that we're all wishcasters by wanting a storm in the middle of the Atlantic to develop. It's like going to a bar and calling people out for ordering an alcoholic beverage, it doesn't make much sense. Hurricanes are an amazing phenomena to study and observe, especially when they become particularly powerful hurricanes. If they end up in the Caribbean or the Gulf, oh well, it happens.

What's also just as bad to me as to people who call storms 'wasted' or 'not worth watching' when they recurve. Seeing a grace of a hurricane without knowing that someone down there is hurting is amazing to see and you hope that they become stronger. Science is science, you don't ignore something because it's not affecting anything.
Quoting Neapolitan:
No one except the dullest among us wants to see a major hurricane rip into a populated area, especially a poorly-protected one. But there's a lot of difference between that sort of uncompassionate death-wish-for-others ignorance and the desire to watch severe weather develop for the beauty and awe and--let's admit it--sense of excitement it sometimes brings.

I've never understood why some people come into weather forums such as this one--especially during the the heart of hurricane or tornado season--only to begin berating and chastising others for wanting to see hurricanes or tornadoes develop. That seems to me a bit like voluntarily walking into a Vegas casino, playing roulette for awhile, then lecturing the poker players on the evils of gambling. You know when you come in here at this time of year you're going to read comments, sometimes enthusiastic ones, from people interested in tropical weather. And since you know that coming in, why start preaching to them? Or better yet, if you're all that sensitive to the dangers of tropical weather, why even come here at all?
Like someone telling me their life story of Andrew and how they had to shoot someone to get the them off of their property just because I said I would want to experience a hurricane on my own on a abandon islands...
93L

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


92L

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT.
..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
Link

Though lacking convection 92L has a well defined structure IMO.
Quoting flcanes:

strongest strom since megi
what was strongest before santa funso? giovanna?

Funso had a higher ACE, but Giovanna had a slightly higher peak intensity. Funso was awesome to look at:



They happened this year though, 2011's strongest storm is a tie between three STY's in the West Pac for peak intensity with Hurricane Hilary in the East Pac having the highest ACE I think.
525. SLU
Quoting Neapolitan:
No one except the dullest among us wants to see a major hurricane rip into a populated area, especially a poorly-protected one. But there's a lot of difference between that sort of uncompassionate death-wish-for-others ignorance and the desire to watch severe weather develop for the beauty and awe and--let's admit it--sense of excitement it sometimes brings.

I've never understood why some people come into weather forums such as this one--especially during the the heart of hurricane or tornado season--only to begin berating and chastising others for wanting to see hurricanes or tornadoes develop. That seems to me a bit like voluntarily walking into a Vegas casino, playing roulette for awhile, then lecturing the poker players on the evils of gambling. You know when you come in here at this time of year you're going to read comments, sometimes enthusiastic ones, from people interested in tropical weather. And since you know that coming in, why start preaching to them? Or better yet, if you're all that sensitive to the dangers of tropical weather, why even come here at all?


I think all of us here would like to see every wave coming off Africa strengthen into a cat. 5 hurricane if it were possible. We are all enthusiastic about storm development but at the same time we need to be mindful that these same storms pose a threat to human life and in some cases our very own. Therefore we must try to balance our enthusiasm for hurricanes with a bit of sensitivity to those persons whose lives are directly affected by these systems.
527. hamla
Quoting SLU:


I think all of us here would like to see every wave coming off Africa strengthen into a cat. 5 hurricane if it were possible. We are all enthusiastic about storm development but at the same time we need to be mindful that these same storms pose a threat to human life and in some cases our very own. Therefore we must try to balance our enthusiasm for hurricanes with a bit of sensitivity to those persons whose lives are directly affected by these systems.
VERY TRUE JUST ASK THE FOLKS IN VERMONT ABOUT IRENE LAST YEAR
Good nite guys and gals..Im off to pop me some popcorn and wait on Boardwalk Empire season premiere!!

same time, same rants, same arguments, same plussing, and same blob watching tomorrow..adios!
Quoting ncstorm:


Dont you just LOVE it!!


Same as Slam, mild and dry.
I hate that map!
Mother Nature will do what she likes whether we like it or not, we must all be prepared and vigilant of what is to come every hurricane season, especially the ones who live where the threats exist. Hurricanes are part of the cycle of life that has probably gone on since the beginning of time and will continue till we cease to exist.
Lane has been trying to show an eye in geostationary imagery all afternoon but seems to be having a bit of a hard time.

Also, look in the bottom left corner of the image. I think NHC is missing a TD.

ASCAT says it is close to having a closed circulation, if it doesn't already have one.



Quoting sar2401:

Once you guys grow up, own property, and have a wife and kids in harms way, you might not think it's so cool. Have a little sensitivity when posting.

I don't want a landfalling storm anywhere at any time. All I said was it would be interesting to see the evolution from our weak invest into a TC with it hopefully not affecting land. I would have to be crazy wanting a storm to make landfall and hurt people.
92L looks like RIP.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Mother Nature will do what she likes whether we like it or not, we must all be prepared and vigilant of what is to come every hurricane season, especially the ones who live where the threats exist. Hurricanes are part of the cycle of life that has probably gone on since the beginning of time and will continue till we cease to exist.


+1 Agree entierly with this.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lane has been trying to show an eye in geostationary imagery all afternoon but seems to be having a bit of a hard time.

Also, look in the bottom left corner of the image. I think NHC is missing a TD.

ASCAT says it is close to having a closed circulation, if it doesn't already have one.




Very good observation there. You can really see some convection blow up just south if the center in the last few frames... It'll be interesting to see if the NHC notices this.




Grothar...

Inquiring minds want to know...

Does 92L still qualify for Blob status?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lane has been trying to show an eye in geostationary imagery all afternoon but seems to be having a bit of a hard time.

Also, look in the bottom left corner of the image. I think NHC is missing a TD.

ASCAT says it is close to having a closed circulation, if it doesn't already have one.





They may have to reactivate 92E that was deactivated earlier today.
dark clouds outside right now here.. but no rain dropping from them, though here in Missouri city we've had rain fro the past 3 days straight
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


They may have to reactivate 92E that was deactivated earlier today.

More like activate it and then renumber it. It legitimately looks close to tropical depression status right now.
542. JLPR2
Pretty impressive one over central Africa.

Nadine is now a 60-knot tropical storm:

AL, 14, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 311N, 384W, 60, 987, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 80, 70, 40, 1010, 330, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
Quoting Grothar:


Not sure why you posted this (maybe missed something from earlier) but even though I was more an 'Electric company' kid and didn't watch him as a kid myself really...when I grew up, just adored him! Would watch him with my daughter. The world could use more people like him.

And I found that I have the same routine of changing into 'home attire' when O get home! haha
Sleepy time for 92 and 93...

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Grothar...

Inquiring minds want to know...

Does 92L still qualify for Blob status?


I have not de-blobbed 92L yet.

However, it does look more like a blo


Quoting JLPR2:
Pretty impressive one over central Africa.




Monster! Though, with how some lile to fizzle when they hit the water, will be interesting to see what happens!
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Not sure why you posted this (maybe missed something from earlier) but even though I was more an 'Electric company' kid and didn't watch him as a kid myself really...when I grew up, just adored him! Would watch him with my daughter. The world could use more people like him.

And I found that I have the same routine of changing into 'home attire' when O get home! haha


Just a little misunderstanding before in the neighborhood. I think it is all cleared up now. I just wanted to lighten the mood a little.
Quoting JLPR2:
Pretty impressive one over central Africa.



Is getting late for that area but maybe one of those goes ahead and develop.
Quoting JLPR2:
Pretty impressive one over central Africa.



Did you see post 504? Looks like a big one.
Look at the one in the Indian Ocean


Quoting sar2401:

Maybe, but that front is essentially stationary and producing very little weather. These kind of early autumn fronts tend to wash out between TX and AL. If it's going to make it to central FL, it better get a move on.
Anyway you are now looking at TS Nadine with 70mph winds.
Quoting JLPR2:
Pretty impressive one over central Africa.



Those Mali monsters tend to fade quickly.
Kristy is a TD:

EP, 11, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 251N, 1190W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KRISTY, M,

...and Lane is still at 55 knots:

EP, 12, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1256W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LANE, M
Wow came back to look at 92l...poor thing. And 93...sheesh.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Mother Nature will do what she likes whether we like it or not, we must all be prepared and vigilant of what is to come every hurricane season, especially the ones who live where the threats exist. Hurricanes are part of the cycle of life that has probably gone on since the beginning of time and will continue till we cease to exist.

I worked in an emergency room evenings back in the ancient history of my undergrad days. Friday nights and full moon weekends were always interesting for all of us. We never wished accidents on anyone but handling them gave us a sense of purpose. So I think it is with meteorologists, studying-to-be's, wannabee's, and lookers-on. What I like about WU-ground is we can look at a lot of the same tools the pro's use and watch as things develop (or not!).
There are also several people on here who know quite a lot about all sorts of stuff and are interesting, starting with Dr. M., of course! :-)
TRMM pass of the rain near Baja from Kristy.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Kristy is a TD:

EP, 11, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 251N, 1190W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KRISTY, M,

...and Lane is still at 55 knots:

EP, 12, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1256W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LANE, M




The K storm been a TD. For a few hrs. Now
Quoting Grothar:


Just a little misunderstanding before in the neighborhood. I think it is all cleared up now. I just wanted to lighten the mood a little.

'lightening the mood' is your forte...
Quoting TXHuRRicanE:
dark clouds outside right now here.. but no rain dropping from them, though here in Missouri city we've had rain fro the past 3 days straight


Don't complain neighbor. My yard could use the rain(and the house) here in Pearland. House started sinking again! I say bring on a good 5-10 inches lol.
TRMM pass of the day goes to SANBA. Even though it got the drier side. The passes on the other storms were really bad. Very large quicktime here.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N29W TO 6N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 28W-32W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 20N56W TO 16N59W TO 10N59W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE WAVE AXIS AND IS CENTERED NEAR 13N56W.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 60W-64W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-15N
BETWEEN 56W-59W.

lookin' dry out there...
Quoting Chicklit:
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N29W TO 6N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 28W-32W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 20N56W TO 16N59W TO 10N59W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE WAVE AXIS AND IS CENTERED NEAR 13N56W.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 60W-64W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-15N
BETWEEN 56W-59W.

lookin' dry out there...


And also with upper troughs around. Maybe the rest of season is shut down with the Weak El Nino around?
Nadine:

Quoting BrazoriaMan:
Wow came back to look at 92l...poor thing. And 93...sheesh.


I don't think they are going to remain invests for very much longer.
P28L: Models don't develop it.

P29L: If it can break free of P30L, it has a chance to develop before moving off to the NW.

P30L: Due to interactions with P29L, the models don't develop this yet.

Pouches
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And also with upper troughs around. Maybe the rest of season is shut down with the Weak El Nino around?

not looking very lively
Quoting Grothar:


Just a little misunderstanding before in the neighborhood. I think it is all cleared up now. I just wanted to lighten the mood a little.


Ahh ok...more of the usual then! ;)

Well like I said, can use more of him in the world!

I've not had a tv in about 5 years, so it was a lovely thing to see regardless as not thought of him and his genuine kindness in a while!

Anyway... more on topic, I have a tendency of looking up places when they're bing hit by a storm or threatened by one. And Okinawa sure has some amazing looking places. Someday I sure hope I can travel to all these amazing places and capture images of the landscapes. Hoping to avoid any hurricanes in the process though probably
My local forecast for Monday, when the worst of 93L is expected (I live near Baton Rouge):

Showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds to 5 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

My sneeze (I have a small cold) could produce more wind. Geez.
Cool refreshing air outside :).
I think 92L. Is done
Quoting KoritheMan:
My local forecast for Monday, when the worst of 93L is expected (I live near Baton Rouge):

Showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds to 5 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

My sneeze (I have a small cold) could produce more wind. Geez.


That's not surprising. In fact you might top Hurricane Isaac. A good sneeze can travel 150 km/hour.
Anyone know what it means when a disturbance(92L) has stronger vorticity at 500mb and waning vorticity at 850mb? Is it becoming an ULL?
A couple of pretty sorry looking disturbances here...



Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A couple of pretty sorry looking disturbances here...

anemic comes to mind
what we need is some MJO lol
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A couple of pretty sorry looking disturbances here...



I know just..nasty...showing us that hurricane season is definitely on the decline.Storms getting uglier as the season closes...October is known to be surprising.We need a pretty looking storm to look at.
Neither 92L nor 93L received the 00z ATCF update (at least not yet). That's not always a bad sign; the updates are sometimes late. But it's usually means they're going to be dropped soon unless they start showing signs of life...
Quoting unknowncomic:
Anyone know what it means when a disturbance(92L) has stronger vorticity at 500mb and waning vorticity at 850mb? Is it becoming an ULL?
Short wave maybe with some wannabe severe weather. I'm just guessin.'

Ps. Sorry, I was thinkin' 93L.
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


That's not surprising. In fact you might top Hurricane Isaac. A good sneeze can travel 150 km/hour.


Oh come on. Human anatomy be damned. I'm just trying to have some fun. Killjoy. :|
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I don't think they are going to remain invests for very much longer.


92L I will give a fighting chance it may surprise...but 93...not think so.
There are signs of life in the WCarib

Sanba is making landfall in S Korea.
93L looks sheared...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh come on. Human anatomy be damned. I'm just trying to have some fun. Killjoy. :|


OK, I get it. Only certain people have the right to try to be clever.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Sanba is making landfall in S Korea.


No sunshine on the Korean peninsula today...
MJO looks to be coming back to the Atlantic Basin at Month end.
Operational GFS Phase Diagram
592. BDAwx
Does anyone have access to observations from South Korea (more user friendly than this) where Typhoon Sanba is making landfall with 100mph winds? The observations on wundermap don't match up with the observations on the station history when you click on them. :S
Quoting wxchaser97:
Sanba is making landfall in S Korea.

Just a shell of its former self. What a storm it was. I'm glad we managed to squeeze one Cat 5 out of this year. It sounds like Okinawa didn't fare too badly. Hopefully the Koreas do alright as well.

Good night everyone.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Just a shell of its former self. What a storm it was. I'm glad we managed to squeeze one Cat 5 out of this year. It sounds like Okinawa didn't fare too badly. Hopefully the Koreas do alright as well.

Good night everyone.

Good night MA, I think Korea will be fine.
Does anyone know if the North Koreans are as well prepared as the Southerners?? I know the North gov't is inhumane, but I hope the people are knowledgeable about cyclones and prepared for it. I know they don't have electronic commodities like tv and internet to get info.
Quoting Slamguitar:


No sunshine on the Korean peninsula today...

Correct, just rain and wind but I think they will be ok.
Koreans know how to handle this.Sanba probably won't be as big a deal for them as some people are making it out to be...
Where did the invests go? lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
Koreans know how to handle this.Sanba probably won't be as big a deal for them as some people are making it out to be...

Nobody is making this out to be a complete disaster like you seem to be implying either.
Quoting clamshell:
Just found this on a Google Blogspot site.

****

True Believers are a serious problem in this country. The American public is beset by a plethora of irrational delusions that are widely believed.

True Believers cling to their delusional paradigms with the same obsession that Silas Marner clung to his gold, all the while denying the validity of any other viewpoint.

Both religion and science suffer from the same narrow-minded belligerence.

For example, consider this comparison test of scientific thinking skills between separate groups of Ph.D. scientists and Protestant Ministers.

They were advised that science had already determined the four correct (there were actually more than four) solutions to a given problem. Both groups were given ample time to construct rules governing the behavior of certain variables.

1. The Ministers conducted three times as many experiments before they offered an answer.
2. The ministers were only half as likely to return an answer that had already been disproved.
3. The ministers were three times slower in venturing to offer their first hypothesis.
4. The ministers found twice as many acceptable solutions to the problem as the scientists.

In other words, the Ministers were more scientific in their thinking than the Ph.D. scientists.

It seems the scientists were indoctrinated with their own brand of dogma in their own religion and the ministers were liberated from their usual intellectual orthodoxy by being thrown into an unfamiliar arena.

Would you want to bet that if the subject had been theology the scientists would have been more creative in their thinking than most clergy?

Revs. Sam and Bunny Sewell
Church Without Walls

****

Sam is a PhD, member of Mensa, and was a member in the same anti-war group as John Kerry.

****

Which leads us to these two questions.

Are we just like that when we look at the weather and attempt to predict what, when and where, as it relates to hurricanes?

In other words, are we too close to the subject to really see it for what it is?





At best, this "study" would be considered horribly flawed given the meager description. There was no control group. There was no sample size given. There was no background given for either ministers or Ph.Ds. There was no description given of the problem. And there was no link to the actual study, or references thereof.

In short, nothing can be made of that post. And no, the reasons why hurricane prediction is hard is because it is an incredibly complex system AND we have a limited amount of data. You can have a perfect model, but if you don't have perfect data you will get errors. You can have perfect data but if there are errors in the model (which there always will be) then your predictions may end up being off. Especially in situations that depend on the timing and strength of events.

This is the reason why ensembles are run to get a range of possibilities. Then it is up to the experts to use their judgment in addition to the models and other data to come up with the most likely answer, just like any other complex scientific field.

Now if you want to question the models, experts, what have you that's perfectly fine. In fact, it is encouraged. That's the great thing about science. You're supposed to question it. That just makes the science better. Come up with a thesis and prove your point.

But posts like the one you pasted here don't really add anything to the conversation.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nobody is making this out to be a complete disaster like you seem to be implying.
If your angry go take it somewhere else.Don't you normally stay in weather chat avoiding me anyway?.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Does anyone know if the North Koreans are as well prepared as the Southerners?? I know the North gov't is inhumane, but I hope the people are knowledgeable about cyclones and prepared for it. I know they don't have electronic commodities like tv and internet to get info.


The further north you travel the less pronounced the rainy season and the drier in general. This storm will be weak and well to the east of population in North Korea and isn't likely to be more than a mild annoyance. May actually be more of a nuisance in Vladivostok.
Quoting Chicklit:
There are signs of life in the WCarib

And there has been a seedling south of the keys all day too.
Quoting washingtonian115:
If your angry go take it somewhere else.Don't you normally stay in weather chat avoiding me anyway?.

Hmm...

You snapped at me earlier too.

If I did anything to upset you, Wash, I'm sorry. It was not my intention.

I'm not mad about anything either..
Lane up to 60 knots:

EP, 12, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1256W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LANE, M,
Online NASA tv coverage of the upcoming landing of the Soyuz capsule returning from the ISS is on:

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/NTV-Public- IPS.m3u8

Landing is scheduled to occur in about 1hr and 20 minutes from now
Quoting washingtonian115:
If your angry go take it somewhere else.Don't you normally stay in weather chat avoiding me anyway?.

No offense but that was pretty uncalled for.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Lane up to 60 knots:

EP, 12, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1256W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LANE, M,

Not surprised as he is looking better, probably a hurricane tomorrow.
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


The further north you travel the less pronounced the rainy season and the drier in general. This storm will be weak and well to the east of population in North Korea and isn't likely to be more than a mild annoyance. May actually be more of a nuisance in Vladivostok.


I know it will die down, but now I'm just curious of how the North deals with cyclones in general when a big one comes a'knockin.
Quoting Abacosurf:
And there has been a seedling south of the keys all day too.

that is exciting news
LinkInfraredChannel2Loop
Quoting wxchaser97:

No offense but that was pretty uncalled for.


Not surprised as he is looking better, probably a hurricane tomorrow.
Yes.But you see my original post was never directed at anyone.I was simply putting out there what I felt/thought was going on in a few peoples mind on the blog...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hmm...

You snapped at me earlier too.

If I did anything to upset you, Wash, I'm sorry. It was not my intention.

I'm not mad about anything either..
Then you should have never came at me like that.
......
The boys always get edgy when it's slow in the tropics.
Am sure there is an analogy to war here somewhere.
Just wondering, where's Patrap been?
Would like to see a recent picture of the Isaac pups...
Anyway, it has been hell weeks-on-end for me with lots of work.
Goodnight all.
Thanks for keeping an eye on the tropics :0
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.But you see my original post was never directed at anyone.I was simply putting out there what I felt/thought was going on in a few peoples mind on the blog... Then you should have never came at me like that.

I was just making a statement, jeez.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.But you see my original post was never directed at anyone.I was simply putting out there what I felt/thought was going on in a few peoples mind on the blog.
Last I checked this blog was open for public discussion, no?

Don't take that the wrong way. Cody didn't mean to sound like a jerk either.
Watching my first episode of Here Comes Honey Boo Boo....OMG
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I was just making a statement, jeez.

I didn't see anything wrong with that statement and I didn't see anyone making Sanba a doom situation.

Quoting KoritheMan:

Last I checked this blog was open for public discussion, no?

Don't take that the wrong way. Cody didn't mean to sound like a jerk either.

The blog is open for public discussion. Cody was just making a statement and nothing else.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Last I checked this blog was open for public discussion, no?

Don't take that the wrong way. Cody didn't mean to sound like a jerk either.
Yes PUBLIC DISCUSSION.So I PUBLICLY DISCUSSED what was on my mind.And why in the hell do I fell like I'm being ganged up on and bashed on..
Quoting Slamguitar:
Does anyone know if the North Koreans are as well prepared as the Southerners?? I know the North gov't is inhumane, but I hope the people are knowledgeable about cyclones and prepared for it. I know they don't have electronic commodities like tv and internet to get info.
you be surprized what they get

Quoting Chicklit:
The boys always get edgy when it's slow in the tropics.
Am sure there is an analogy to war here somewhere.
Just wondering, where's Patrap been?
Would like to see a recent picture of the Isaac pups...
Anyway, it has been hell weeks-on-end for me with lots of work.
Goodnight all.
Thanks for keeping an eye on the tropics :0
Come to think of it, I haven't talked to Patrick since just before Isaac. Called him up at work to see how he was doing.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes PUBLIC DISCUSSION.So I PUBLICLY DISCUSSED what was on my mind.And why in the hell do I fell like I'm being ganged up on and bashed on..
My point is, we [as in the collective community] are entitled to respond to a post or someone's opinion, even if it was not directed at us.

And we're not ganging up on you. At least I'm not.
Quoting Chicklit:

that is exciting news
LinkInfraredChannel2Loop
Still a spin passing the Antilles.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Koreans know how to handle this.Sanba probably won't be as big a deal for them as some people are making it out to be...

Who is making Sanba into a big deal? I don't see anyone doing that, we are all saying Korea should be fine.
What an enemic-looking hurricane season. I wonder if we will even make the P storm or see another hurricane. Models do not develop anything in the foreseeable future. Maybe we will have to wait till next year to see more typical behavior in the MDR. Never have I seen such a strange season. The prize goes to 2012 for the strangest behaving hurricane season.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you be surprized what they get
From what I understand, those commodities are reserved entirely for their idiotic leader. Or if not, they're at least controlled/regulated by him.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because everybody is publicly expressing their concern about how rude your comment was towards me. That's why.

I didn't mean to sound rude to you with my first comment, but I even apologized and you're still being ridiculous.
Yes and I was going to end it saying "Well you should have never came at me like that".Then two people found it their business to come in.Notice my last comment was not directed at you.
Quoting lobdelse81:
What an enemic-looking hurricane season. I wonder if we will even make the P storm or see another hurricane. Models do not develop anything in the foreseeable future. Maybe we will have to wait till next year to see more typical behavior in the MDR. Never have I seen such a strange season. The prize goes to 2012 for the strangest behaving hurricane season.


I'm... pretty sure we're going to see more development.
Quoting KoritheMan:
From what I understand, those commodities are reserved entirely for their idiotic leader. Or if not, they're at least controlled/regulated by him.


i believe the most is given to the miltary and then spread out after that
Quoting StormDrain:
Menopause?


Storm drain..what way does it spin after a big rain in the Northern hemisphere?
Quoting Chicklit:
The boys always get edgy when it's slow in the tropics.
Am sure there is an analogy to war here somewhere.
Just wondering, where's Patrap been?
Would like to see a recent picture of the Isaac pups...
Anyway, it has been hell weeks-on-end for me with lots of work.
Goodnight all.
Thanks for keeping an eye on the tropics :0


I believe Patrap may still be at a hotel with the family as their house is being repaired. It's probably keeping him quite busy with work and that.
Quoting lobdelse81:
What an enemic-looking hurricane season. I wonder if we will even make the P storm or see another hurricane. Models do not develop anything in the foreseeable future. Maybe we will have to wait till next year to see more typical behavior in the MDR. Never have I seen such a strange season. The prize goes to 2012 for the strangest behaving hurricane season.


Don't depend on models until something actually gets going. There is still plenty of opportunity for storms to form not only from African waves but from stalled fronts in the gulf, etc.
Quoting auburn:


Storm drain..what way does it spin after a big rain in the Northern hemisphere?
Any way you want it to, honey boo boo.
:)
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I believe Patrap may still be at a hotel with the family as their house is being repaired. It's probably keeping him quite busy with work and that.


Wait, he had something happen to his house? Now I'll have to call.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i believe the most is given to the miltary and then spread out after that


And some of the commodities are for no one at all:

Kijŏng-dong
Where is Patrap? Would like to ask him how the cute puppies are doing:)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Wait, he had something happen to his house? Now I'll have to call.

Yeah, he had roof damage and lost around 8 windows IIRC.
639. etxwx
Typhoon Sanba slams S. Korea hard, causes property damage
2012/09/17 10:24 KST
SEOUL, Sept. 17 (Yonhap) -- Tens of thousands of people were forced to evacuate and hundreds of sea and air passenger services were canceled as a powerful typhoon made landfall in southern South Korea on Monday.

Packing strong winds of 43 meters per second and heavy rains, Typhoon Sanba was moving northeastward at a speed of 34 kilometers per hour after battering the southwest coastal areas Monday morning, according to the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). It forecast the typhoon would veer to the East Sea after passing across South Korea's mainland.

The southern island of Jeju, already hit by the powerful storm, received as much as 80 millimeters of rain per hour, with Mount Halla having 583 millimeters over the weekend. Dozens of residents suffered flood damage, and more than 10,000 households were left without electricity, the National Emergency Management Agency said.

One hundred and thirteen domestic flights and ferry services connecting the island to mainland areas, along with two international flights, were canceled, according to the land ministry. Nationwide, a total of 208 flights and 130 ferry services were suspended.

The authorities issued typhoon advisories for most part of the country including Seoul, where up to 30 meters per second of wind and 150 millimeters of rain are expected.

Major dams such as Paldang, Chungju and Namgang throughout the country discharged water to control their water levels and national parks and other areas considered dangerous in such a storm were declared off-limits as a precautionary measure.
what a night..waiting on the rain!!!
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yeah, he had roof damage and lost around 8 windows IIRC.


Geez. Now I feel bad.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
958 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MON AND
HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN AMPLIFY WITH
A LARGE UPPER LOW FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WITH TROUGH
FCST TO EXTEND TO SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TUE NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONITNUE TO MOVE WESTWARD NEXT 48 HRS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX. THEN MOISTURE
SPREADS WWD ACROSS PR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SW
PR UNDER A ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE THEN BECOMES MUCH DEEPER
LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH TSTMS INCREASING IN CVRG ACROSS ERN
PR AND USVI AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIB SEA S OF
PR MON NIGHT. IT APPEARS ERN PR WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF
EXPERIENCING FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE FAST RESPONSE OF RIVERS IN
THAT AREA. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY WED AFTERNOON.
644. srada
I see nothing has changed with the blog
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm... pretty sure we're going to see more development.


Outside a mid/late october suprise things look mighty hostile in all main development regions.
Quoting hurricane23:


Outside a mid/late october suprise things look mighty hostile in all main development regions.


Yeah but that's been the case all season, hasn't it? Doesn't stop mid-latitude developments. This season may not be a truly tropical season in the sense that many of the storms come from tropical waves, but it is by all measures above average.

IF YOU DIDN'T KNOW ANY BETTER YOU'LL SAY "LOOK AT THE YE OF THAT HURRICANE"
Lane is organizing well
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah but that's been the case all season, hasn't it? Doesn't stop mid-latitude developments. This season may not be a truly tropical season in the sense that many of the storms come from tropical waves, but it is by all measures above average.
Except in terms of major hurricanes :)
Quoting TomTaylor:
Except in terms of major hurricanes :)


Oh yes. That.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Except in terms of major hurricanes :)

Well officially we only have 1 major but someone could however make a case for Gordan and Kirk.
Had a little heat wave out here in Southern California this weekend. Temperature graph for the last seven days is shown on the far left in red. Notice the lower temperatures, and little temperature variation, but over the weakened temperatures soared, dewpoints plummeted and diurnal variation increased greatly. Temperatures have cooled off considerably today, but we reached 110 at the local station on Friday, very impressive for being only 5 miles from the cool pacific ocean.

Click to enlarge

It's like the MDR is the NO DR this year!
Quoting srada:
I see nothing has changed with the blog
Well one thing has changed. Washingtonian115 is now permanently banned. Although she was just in a little skirmish, I am struggling to understand why this minor misbehavior deserves a permanent ban...

Hopefully I won't be banned for commenting on this ban, but I felt something had to be said.
Quoting hurricane23:


Outside a mid/late october suprise things look mighty hostile in all main development regions.


that could very well be the case

who know's at midnight 76 days remain

there is still a little time
...LANE CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE...
8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 16
Location: 15.0°N 125.8°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

...KRISTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 16
Location: 25.3°N 119.2°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Quoting eliteforecaster:
Well one thing has changed. Washingtonian115 is now permanently banned. Although she was just in a little skirmish, I am struggling to understand why this minor misbehavior deserves a permanent ban...

Hopefully I won't be banned for commenting on this ban, but I felt something had to be said.

What?

Although it was barely my fault, now I just feel bad.
The authorities issued typhoon advisories for most part of the country including Seoul, where up to 30 meters per second of wind and 150 millimeters of rain are expected.
i have 2 friends that are from korea , i asked. how does one know a really big storm is approaching? they said, let the 13 , 14 year old ones that can understand that with all that wisdom they have learned in the past,we let them play in the wind,if they sway , its a storm,if they tumble down the street, its a windstorm. if , its a really big storm, they stay inside,,and learn. respect.... doubt , that happens here .
Quoting eliteforecaster:
Well one thing has changed. Washingtonian115 is now permanently banned. Although she was just in a little skirmish, I am struggling to understand why this minor misbehavior deserves a permanent ban...

Hopefully I won't be banned for commenting on this ban, but I felt something had to be said.

It doesn't say permanently banned, just banned so maybe it's only temporary. I will miss here, feel bad that I played a roll, and I'm sorry.
I noticed that during the "skirmish", a comment was removed. I guess a line was crossed.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012

...NADINE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 38.1W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Quoting BDAwx:
Does anyone have access to observations from South Korea (more user friendly than this) where Typhoon Sanba is making landfall with 100mph winds?


The highest wind observation I see currently in South Korea according to Wunderground is 46 mph at Busan Airport and Masan. I would not even expect to see any sustained hurricane force winds observations from land (except I am sure some will be reported to have occurred at isolated locations after the fact). The western eye-wall of then category 4 Typhoon Sanba moved right over the observation station at Camp Hansen Range Control in Okinawa, and the highest winds during the entire storm were 53 gusting to 71 mph. Not even a hurricane force gust at this official station in the eye-wall of a category 4 typhoon! I have often noticed this in other tropical cyclones.
Quoting Civicane49:

Nothing, nothingness, very poor for being near the peak of the season.
Quoting eliteforecaster:
Well one thing has changed. Washingtonian115 is now permanently banned. Although she was just in a little skirmish, I am struggling to understand why this minor misbehavior deserves a permanent ban...

Hopefully I won't be banned for commenting on this ban, but I felt something had to be said.


how do you know its permanent
could be just a temp thing
sorta like a time out if u will

maybe maybe not we will see

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK ABOUT 2012 CONCERNING THE THE LEEWARDS.
Quoting eliteforecaster:
Well one thing has changed. Washingtonian115 is now permanently banned. Although she was just in a little skirmish, I am struggling to understand why this minor misbehavior deserves a permanent ban...

Hopefully I won't be banned for commenting on this ban, but I felt something had to be said.

WHAT..?

One of the only ppl near me is banned.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


how do you know its permanent
could be just a temp thing
sorta like a time out if u will

maybe maybe not we will see

hopefully
00z Best Track came out very late for 92L.

AL, 92, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 561W, 20, 1011, LO
Quoting Articuno:

WHAT..?

One of the only ppl near me is banned.

She doesn't, imo, deserve to be banned or at least not forever. Hopefully she will be able to come back.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track came out very late for 92L.

AL, 92, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 561W, 20, 1011, LO

With not much change, still waiting for 93L's BEST track.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track came out very late for 92L.

AL, 92, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 561W, 20, 1011, LO


lol what a joke this thing
just read back on the blog..this is what I hate about this blog, the little immature cliques go in and minus people's comments out and now I read Wash has a temp ban but yet the usual suspects are still here blogging..she wasnt talking to herself and I dont even see where it was justified in her being banned..this is why we dont need bloggers on here being admin..
Quoting eliteforecaster:
Well one thing has changed. Washingtonian115 is now permanently banned. Although she was just in a little skirmish, I am struggling to understand why this minor misbehavior deserves a permanent ban...

Hopefully I won't be banned for commenting on this ban, but I felt something had to be said.


Naa I bet she will be back..she called me HONEY..did ya see?now i am gonna get banned...LOL)
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


The highest wind observation I see currently in South Korea according to Wunderground is 46 mph at Busan Airport and Masan. I would not even expect to see any sustained hurricane force winds observations from land (except I am sure some will be reported to have occurred at isolated locations after the fact). The western eye-wall of then category 4 Typhoon Sanba moved right over the observation station at Camp Hansen Range Control in Okinawa, and the highest winds during the entire storm were 53 gusting to 71 mph. Not even a hurricane force gust at this official station in the eye-wall of a category 4 typhoon! I have often noticed this in other tropical cyclones.


I have to make a correction to the above information. The 53 gusting to 71 peak wind was actually from Naha, Okinawa on the western end of the island. This part of the island did NOT get the eye-wall of Sanba. I actually found that the highest sustained wind at Camp Hansen Range Control was 75 mph (gusts are not reported here apparently). Still, this station was for sure in the western eye-wall and one would expect much higher winds.
678. BDAwx
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


The highest wind observation I see currently in South Korea according to Wunderground is 46 mph at Busan Airport and Masan. I would not even expect to see any sustained hurricane force winds observations from land (except I am sure some will be reported to have occurred at isolated locations after the fact). The western eye-wall of then category 4 Typhoon Sanba moved right over the observation station at Camp Hansen Range Control in Okinawa, and the highest winds during the entire storm were 53 gusting to 71 mph. Not even a hurricane force gust at this official station in the eye-wall of a category 4 typhoon! I have often noticed this in other tropical cyclones.


Yeah, I looked into that a while ago, I think its a combination of the locations not reporting during the worst of the winds (ie. only doing hourly reports so they miss the worst) and local lee effects (ie. steep valleys and hills). But I found a sustained wind of 101mph in South Korea via Wunderground.
The Korean Meteorological Administration has a more in depth look at weather stations in the Korean version...but navigating in Korean is hard lol. I just think its strange that the wundermap sometimes says one thing then the station history that it links you to says something else.
Nadine is starting to get the look from being up that far north, she will turn extra-tropical in a few days.

Quoting ncstorm:
just read back on the blog..this is what I hate about this blog, the little immature cliques go in and minus people's comments
I don't know about you, but I'm part of no such clique. I hate elitism just as much as you do.
If I am ban then let it be but admin I know Washingtonian115 was a little alter today but don`t you think a permanent ban is too much. many in here we appreciate her and she had a lot of knowledge.can you please do something for her.thanks
Quoting ncstorm:
just read back on the blog..this is what I hate about this blog, the little immature cliques go in and minus people's comments out and now I read Wash has a temp ban but yet the usual suspects are still here blogging..she wasnt talking to herself and I dont even see where it was justified in her being banned..this is why we dont need bloggers on here being admin..

I have my same/similar age friends on here, but I don't want cliques and stuff. That is for high school and middle school, trust me I see it all the time and it really is annoying. I really like Wash and wasn't the person who minused or reported here. She has always been a good blogger and I hope the ban isn't long and she comes back.
Quoting BDAwx:


Yeah, I looked into that a while ago, I think its a combination of the locations not reporting during the worst of the winds (ie. only doing hourly reports so they miss the worst) and local lee effects (ie. steep valleys and hills). But I found a sustained wind of 101mph in South Korea via Wunderground.
The Korean Meteorological Administration has a more in depth look at weather stations in the Korean version...but navigating in Korean is hard lol. I just think its strange that the wundermap sometimes says one thing then the station history that it links you to says something else.


101 mph sustained from a typhoon classified as 100 mph, that is not what I would expect, huh. Even more interesting is that the 101 mph report happened to occur right at one of the every three hour reports. I understand what you mean about the reporting stations.
684. 7544
looks like we might see a new carb. blob soon ?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Wait, he had something happen to his house? Now I'll have to call.
I believe he has some damage pics posted on his blog. and pic of the 5 pups. back to lurking.....
I hope she'll be back, too. She was fun.
Quoting Grothar:
I hope she'll be back, too. She was fun.

waiting on the rain!!!come on rain!
Yea she called me Honey...well then Booboo..
Sanba officially inland
17/0232 UTC 34.9N 128.1E OVERLAND SANBA -- West Pacific

I got a boost of energy that is allowing me to stay up a little longer.
Quoting auburn:

waiting on the rain!!!come on rain!
Yea she called me Honey...well then Booboo..

It'll be there tomorrow. We stole tonight's rain from you :) I swear, I don't understand what comes out of Birmingham sometimes. They issued an areal flood warning for Autauga County just as the rain was coming to an end and the storms are dissipating. I heard Prattville PD dispatch on the scanner asking for any reports of flooding because BMX was on the phone begging for some reports. Of course, there isn't any. :)

I hope Wash is back also. All of us get a bit testy at times, but I didn't see the exchange that apparently caused the problem. Still, sometimes it's nice to show some tolerance for long-time members who might just be having a bad day. I use the report button very sparingly.
Quoting auburn:

waiting on the rain!!!come on rain!
Yea she called me Honey...well then Booboo..


Reminds me of some of my friends back in the '60's.
Quoting sar2401:

It'll be there tomorrow. We stole tonight's rain from you :) I swear, I don't understand what comes out of Birmingham sometimes. They issued an areal flood warning for Autauga County just as the rain was coming to an end and the storms are dissipating. I heard Prattville PD dispatch on the scanner asking for any reports of flooding because BMX was on the phone begging for some reports. Of course, there isn't any. :)

I hope Wash is back also. All of us get a bit testy at times, but I didn't see the exchange that apparently caused the problem. Still, sometimes it's nice to show some tolerance for long-time members who might just be having a bad day. I use the report button very sparingly.


Yep me too..I just wish for one time when they say its gonna rain it would...LOL
Quoting wxchaser97:

With not much change, still waiting for 93L's BEST track.

I don't think it has a BEST track. :) Although it looks like a smoking pile of doggy-doo now, I'll still wait until I see how the thing (doesn't deserve blob unless Gro corrects me) reacts to the front coming down before putting a stake in its heart.
Quoting sar2401:

I don't think it has a BEST track. :) Although it looks like a smoking pile of doggy-doo now, I'll still wait until I see how the thing (doesn't deserve blob unless Gro corrects me) reacts to the front coming down before putting a stake in its heart.


Hey, I got a sprinkle on the way home from work today! It has convection. :D
695. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:
I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK ABOUT 2012 CONCERNING THE THE LEEWARDS.


Well, from what I have read for you and others in your area I would say that so far, it has been pretty dry year.
xD

Hopefully rain will reach you soon, crossing my fingers 92L explodes a la Emily(2011), bringing lots of beneficial rain to your area.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey, I got a sprinkle on the way home from work today! It has convection. :D

I think you must have been under the one cell that had any activity then. :) I know the NHC is a lot smarter than me but namimg 93L an invest seems like it was a bit premature. There still doesn't seem to be enough model runs for an ensemble forecast. I don't know what the criteria is for designating an invest, but I would think some reliable models picking up an AOI must be one of them.
Quoting JLPR2:


Well, from what I have read for you and others in your area I would say that so far, it has been pretty dry year.
xD

Hopefully rain will reach you soon, crossing my fingers 92L explodes a la Emily(2011), bringing lots of beneficial rain to your area.


Thanks for your kind wishes :-) It may be a bit premature to think about next year.. but I really think it won't be an EL NINO one. 2010 and 2011 were LA NINA, and I can tell the weather was much wetter (and interesting) with above average rain. I enjoyed these years lol.
Quoting auburn:


Storm drain..what way does it spin after a big rain in the Northern hemisphere?


technically, it's too weak to feel the force of the Coriolis.

Diverting from the tropics just for a moment...Interesting storms in the Arctic. A sub-985 mb low over western Alaska and another strong sub-990 mb low just north of Norway, separated by a +1030 mb high just north of central Siberia. It is possible that some more ice could be getting pushed out into the Atlantic near NE Greenland and along with the winds generated this could prolong the Arctic Ocean melt season just a little longer, even though surface air temperatures are generally below freezing north of 80N and getting colder.

We should be getting very close to the minimum now in any event.
Hurricane Nadine headed towards the Azores Islands
Hurricane Nadine is heading eastward on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday. However, steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

From Dr. M.

Got me to wondering...what is the record for the
number of advisories issued for a Tropical Cyclone?
Quoting canehater1:
Hurricane Nadine headed towards the Azores Islands...
Got me to wondering...what is the record for the
number of advisories issued for a Tropical Cyclone?
That would be 2002 Hurricane Kyle with 89 advisories, including a classic from Avila that was like, "I give up!"
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
One of the 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE That is 92L


That front looks poised to clear the Florida Peninsula!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
compare ice minimum year 2007/2012

Nice comparison Keeper. Big loss in extent for 2012, even bigger loss in ice volume and multi-year ice. Notice the tongue of ice near NE Greenland in both years is near normal extents...that is where ice gets pushed out into the warmer Atlantic by the cross-polar flow.

Edit - The climate models have been way too conservative with the loss of Arctic ice in the summer, since all of the positive feedbacks are not taken into account.
Each invest went down by 10%:



0% for 92L & 10% for 93L
92l keeping S of PR & DR



708. keenu
Why the GFS model for Europe is not actuall since 9/11 ?
Quoting guygee:
That would be 2002 Hurricane Kyle with 89 advisories, including a classic from Avila that was like, "I give up!"


Worldwide Hurricane John (1994), IIRC 104 advisories issued by NHC, CPHC and JTWC.
.......................Good Morning folks.......
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
455 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-172100 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
455 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. THOSE PLANNING BEACH
ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CHECK FOR POTENTIAL BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY
Good morning, everyone. I'll be driving to school in some good heavy rain this morning. I was hoping for some of that huge band of rain that was coming at us from Texas yesterday, but once again, it stopped at the Sabine River which divides Texas and Louisiana. So many times weather stops at that river. But that 20% that is now 10% coming up from the GOM is giving us some rain. I'm not sure why it's 10% still when it's so close to land, being already partially on land.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Each invest went down by 10%:



0% for 92L & 10% for 93L


Why are they still invests?
I realize it's still too early in the game to mean much, because we've seen many of these same type systems fall apart within hours of hitting the Atlantic waters. Nevertheless, P30L is looking pretty good at the moment as it moves across West Africa:

P30L

...and it even presents well on water vapor:

P30L
Nadine's starting to get a more extratropical look. It may make the transition a little sooner than the NHC indicates.

I see w115 ban was of the temp type.
Did I kill the blog?
going to be some flooding issues later today huh....
I am impressed. I single handley quited the tropics, killed the blog, all while having coffee!
SAB said Nadine was subtropical a few hours ago, while TAFB says it is still tropical. It doesn't look completely warm-core anymore.

SPC tomorrow outlook..they expanded the 30% coverage..



MJO will be back at the end of the month.


92L this morning.
92L and 93L RIP
Good Morning
Quoting Autistic2:
I see w115 ban was of the temp type.
No I didn't get banned...They started with me first.But I'm off this subject.Good morning ncstrom and others.
Good morning Wash, WxLogic, and everyone else.
Today, Europe’s newest meteorology satellite, Metop-B, will blast into space from Baikonur Cosmodrome.

The MetOp satellites carry a set of seven 'heritage' instruments provided by the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the French Space Agency (CNES) and a new generation of five European instruments offering improved sensing capabilities to both meteorologists and climatologists.

MetOp instrument overview

Spaceflight Now's live coverage

Metop-B Live Launch
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning Wash, WxLogic, and everyone else.
I went for a morning walk when the sun was coming up.It was really beautiful..but my phone didn't capture it well :(.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I went for a morning walk when the sun was coming up.It was really beautiful..but my phone didn't capture it well :(.


Aw bummer :) but I'm glad you got to see it.
737. JLPR2
Now 92L has favorable wind shear, might be a little too late. XD

703 - Those remote sensing systems measuring Arctic ice volume, area, and extent only show ice data from 1979. This time frame is far to inconclusive to show any significant correlations.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I went for a morning walk when the sun was coming up.It was really beautiful..but my phone didn't capture it well :(.


You have no idea how glad people in here are to see you back.

Reading back there was a whole page with about 20 "Free Washy" type posts....

Glad to see you didnt get permabanned or anything, and you are back
Quoting icmoore:


Aw bummer :) but I'm glad you got to see it.
Just like the rainbow incident on Saturday.But sometimes mother nature's beauty can not be fully captured in a photo(unless I have a $500+ camra and I don't see that happening)
92 should build convection as it moves through the eastern carib.
Looks like 92L & 93L have been deactivated, no more floaters on them, but I think there is weak pulse to 92L this morning.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


At best, this "study" would be considered horribly flawed given the meager description.

But posts like the one you pasted here don't really add anything to the conversation.


Your comments have proven his point exactly.

Go back and read Post 517 more carefully this time.

Both groups were advised that four correct solutions already existed. The study was not about the science in their assignment, it was about their methodology used to reach their conclusion.

The author simply compared the lengths to which each group would be willing to go to develop their conclusions. His observation was that the Ministers worked harder at reaching their conclusions and suggested that it was because they were not analyzing theological doctrine. Instead they were analyzing subject matter that was out of their field of study.

In the end, his question was quite simple. How would the scientists have gone about analyzing a theological issue. Would they have, likewise, done a more in depth analysis?

Hence my two questions, which have everything to do with how we look at the weather.

Are we as analytical as we ought to be when we look at the weather and attempt to predict what, when and where, as it relates to hurricanes?

In other words, are we too close to the subject to really see it for what it is?




BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LANCASTER...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT

* AT 743 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL THIS MORNING OVER
CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY.

RADAR ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LANCASTER COUNTY RESULTING IN NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF FLOODING. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS ENDED...THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL FLOW INTO THE LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING DOWNSTREAM IN THE LANCASTER AND
ELGIN COMMUNITIES. WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE
LANCASTER AREA AND THE PUBLIC IS URGED NOT TO DRIVE ACROSS ROADS
COVERED BY WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CAUSE SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
12z Best Track for 92L. Still alive.

AL, 92, 2012091712, , BEST, 0, 145N, 589W, 20, 1011, LO
748. JLPR2


Sort of alive.
93L is also alive--and strengthening:

AL, 93, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 265N, 955W, 20, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012091706, , BEST, 0, 273N, 948W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012091712, , BEST, 0, 285N, 935W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting JLPR2:


Sort of alive.
Now it's trying to build a anti cyclone.Seems it wants to act up.The eastern caribbean should finish it off though.NHC may keep a watchful eye to see if it may act up in the W.C.
usually im on tazs bus but 92 the character might of been alittle early to pull the rug out
SHIP continues with this.

WHXX01 KWBC 171249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC MON SEP 17 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120917 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120917 1200 120918 0000 120918 1200 120919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 58.9W 15.0N 60.8W 15.3N 63.1W 15.9N 65.5W
BAMD 14.5N 58.9W 15.0N 61.2W 15.4N 63.4W 15.8N 65.5W
BAMM 14.5N 58.9W 15.1N 60.9W 15.6N 63.1W 16.1N 65.4W
LBAR 14.5N 58.9W 15.1N 61.1W 15.6N 63.6W 16.1N 66.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120919 1200 120920 1200 120921 1200 120922 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 68.0W 17.0N 73.0W 17.5N 78.6W 18.0N 84.2W
BAMD 16.0N 67.4W 16.0N 71.0W 16.0N 74.5W 16.4N 78.2W
BAMM 16.5N 67.6W 17.3N 72.1W 18.3N 76.7W 19.6N 80.9W
LBAR 16.5N 68.7W 17.8N 73.8W 19.5N 77.8W 20.7N 80.0W
SHIP 52KTS 66KTS 77KTS 85KTS
DSHP 52KTS 66KTS 77KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 58.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 56.9W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 54.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

753. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now it's trying to build a anti cyclone.Seems it wants to act up.The eastern caribbean should finish it off though.NHC may keep a watchful eye to see if it may act up in the W.C.


That was actually Nadine's anticlone, it inherited it. :P

Bummer for 92L that it took so long to collocate with it.
GREAT! They reschedule our training in Houston for this week after Hurricane Isaac and now we have Invest 93L headed this way. I know it probably won't blow up to anything serious but really? The rain is the issue for my neighborhood. Anyone think anything of this Invest 93L? Please update me. Thanks!
GREAT! They reschedule our training in Houston for this week after Hurricane Isaac and now we have Invest 93L headed this way. I know it probably won't blow up to anything serious but really? The rain is the issue for my neighborhood. Anyone think anything of this Invest 93L? Please update me. Thanks Here in Lafayette, LA.
Link

Gulf of Mexico radar.

Quite a blow up in the northern gulf. On the west coast here on Madeira Beach we got about .40" of rain yesterday with thunderstorms likely today and tomorrow.
Quoting JasonRE:
GREAT! They reschedule our training in Houston for this week after Hurricane Isaac and now we have Invest 93L headed this way. I know it probably won't blow up to anything serious but really? The rain is the issue for my neighborhood. Anyone think anything of this Invest 93L? Please update me. Thanks!




93L has a 0 percent. Of forming.
Quoting Neapolitan:
93L is also alive--and strengthening:

AL, 93, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 265N, 955W, 20, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012091706, , BEST, 0, 273N, 948W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012091712, , BEST, 0, 285N, 935W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,




The nhc may have too bump 93L back up
Quoting Tazmanian:




93L has a 0 percent. Of forming.


But what about the rain associated with it?
Quoting JLPR2:


That was actually Nadine's anticlone, it inherited it. :P

Bummer for 92L that it took so long to collocate with it.
It could have been a 92L/T.D 7/Helene repeat.Lol.
761. SLU
17/0600 UTC 31.7N 37.2W TX.X/X.X NADINE
16/2345 UTC 31.5N 38.6W T3.5/4.0 NADINE
Quoting TomballTXPride:
703 - Those remote sensing systems measuring Arctic ice volume, area, and extent only show ice data from 1979. This time frame is far to inconclusive to show any significant correlations.

LOL

Back on it I see.
765. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:




The nhc may have too bump 93L back up


93L still in the water there blowing up at this hour heading for the panhandle

92L making a nother try also might be back to 10 % latter imo

new blob in the bahamas today moving wnw hmm
Quoting JLPR2:


Sort of alive.

Isn't that from Monday Morning Fever?
Why is it going back up to a cat 1?????
Wounder if there is even a close low with 93L
92L back up on the Floater page...

Good morning everyone, great to see Wash back. I think Nadine is extra-tropical or sub-tropical right now or at least making the transition.
I guess the ATCF was being a bit too aggressive with 93L; it's just been lowered a little (see comment #749):

AL, 93, 2012091712, , BEST, 0, 285N, 935W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST,
773. JLPR2
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
92L back up on the Floater page...



If it manages to keep building convection it could get interesting, specially with an anticyclone on top of it. Bring on the rain! :)
774. 7544
Quoting JLPR2:


If it manages to keep building convection it could get interesting, specially with an anticyclone on top of it. Bring on the rain! :)


yeap will there still be model runs on it latter on today tia
Quoting TomballTXPride:
703 - Those remote sensing systems measuring Arctic ice volume, area, and extent only show ice data from 1979. This time frame is far to inconclusive to show any significant correlations.


And what climatological background do you have to make that assertion? Paleoclimatological data shows unprecedented warming of polar ocean sea surface temperatures in post-industrial times (c.f. Crosta et al. 2004, Nielsen et al. 2004, and others), significantly extending our ability to assign significance to more than thirty three years of daily-collected data - data that shows extraordinary sea ice loss.

A sample size of thirty is enough for statistical significance given a strong effect size and low noise. The supporting evidence of extraordinary and sustained permafrost melt, ice pack melt, and Arctic biological migration - none of which show up to anywhere near the current extent in the paleoclimatological record in at least the last million years - are just icing on the cake.
It is coming a flood here near Pensacola. UGH! Figures just got my sprinklers fixed.
777. 7544
93L growing in size at this hour

92L looking better too
93L back up on the Floater page...

Quoting washingtonian115:
Now it's trying to build a anti cyclone.Seems it wants to act up.The eastern caribbean should finish it off though.NHC may keep a watchful eye to see if it may act up in the W.C.
Don't be too sure yet that the eastern Caribbean will kill ir=t off. It is not common but storms have developed there.

Link
Quoting bappit:
Isn't that from Monday Morning Fever?
lol - AH, AH, AH, AH, sort of alive, sort of alive.
Good one.
Quoting captainktainer:


And what climatological background do you have to make that assertion? Paleoclimatological data shows unprecedented warming of polar ocean sea surface temperatures in post-industrial times (c.f. Crosta et al. 2004, Nielsen et al. 2004, and others), significantly extending our ability to assign significance to more than thirty three years of daily-collected data - data that shows extraordinary sea ice loss.

A sample size of thirty is enough for statistical significance given a strong effect size and low noise. The supporting evidence of extraordinary and sustained permafrost melt, ice pack melt, and Arctic biological migration - none of which show up to anywhere near the current extent in the paleoclimatological record in at least the last million years - are just icing on the cake.
Some people just don't like facts, captain. It's not that they don't see those facts; it's they don't like what those facts are showing them. And simply denying those facts is, unfortunately, the most effective coping strategy they know. Sad, yes. But all too prevalent in certain ideological circles, I'm afraid...
looks as if 93 has energized the mid-upper low near texas.
G-morning all. Haven't been on since Isaac. Just finished repairs and cleaning.

I see 92L now heading west. Wanted to wait for the Doc's update but couldn't anymore. Anyone think this has any GOM desire in it? I hope TX then the great plains, they need it.

93L is just a rainmaker. It's giving me some now and will through the day but gone tommorrow.
Rainfall from the gulf coast system is being downplayed for the gulf coast and Florida.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
MJO will be back at the end of the month.


Good Morning Everyone.
I'm sick, but wanted to check in really briefly.
93L is no threat what-so-ever, besides unwanted heavy rain for Louisiana and Mississippi.

My guess is that 92L will be under the radar and will build up under the Anticyclone and form once it reaches the Western Caribbean. And become Tropical Storm Oscar before revurving through the Gulf, with Florida and Cuba being the main targets.

With the MJO returning we will probably see the monsoonal trough pick back up and much more Homegrown development...
Pouch 30L is probably going to be our last Cape Verde storm of the season, and from then on out we will turn our focus back toward the monsoonal developments and trough splits from these digging troughs that are blowing through Gulf more hastily now.

Outlook for the rest of the season:
Oscar- 92L
Patty- Pouch 30L
(Could be vise-versa for the above)
Rafael- Monsoonal development in the caribbean at END of September or Early October.
Sandy- Trough split or Monsoonal development in October
Tony- Trough split in Late October.
Valerie- Trough split or Monsoonal in November?

I foresee I very quick shutdown of the Atlantic where storms will be much more scarce and further apart.
Nationally note the remnants of Kristy in the EPac showing up:


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 17 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NADINE
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA872--
A. 19/0000Z
B. NOAA872 0314A NADINE
C. 18/1800Z
D. 37.0N 31.0W
E. 19/0000Z TO 19/1200Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FEET
G. PATTERN: 6 E-W LEGS IN BOX 600 NM
SQUARE, ENTRY POINT 32.0N 37.0W
78 DROPSONDE RELEASES

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Is lane developing an eye like feature?
(In Post 517) Quoting clamshell:
[...]Are we just like that when we look at the weather and attempt to predict what, when and where, as it relates to hurricanes?
In other words, are we too close to the subject to really see it for what it is?
You have a valid point, but science is still the best method we have found to sort out the fiction from the truth.

Karl Popper wrote on the philosophy of science and addressed some of these points a long time ago, it is worthwhile to go back and read him and a few of his critics.

(wiki link on Karl Popper)




Current-
14/8/1

Forecasted Final Total for the season:

17/9/2-4(Assuming Gordon and/or Kirk is upgraded to a Major Hurricane)
794. etxwx
Updated news from Yonhap news service on Sanba's Korean landfall. Sadly one person has lost their life in a landslide. The article mentions it is the first time in 50 years that the peninsula has been drenched by four typhoons in a single year.

One dead as Typhoon Sanba slams southern S. Korea
STILL NOT A DROP FROM 92L HERE AT 18N63W. WHAT'S GOING ON? I SEE EVERYTHING IS GOIGN THROUGH MARTINIQUE/DOMINICA/GUADELOUPE AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THEY ALREADY HAD RAIN YESTERDAY..... LOTS OF IT. NATURE REALLY GIVES US NO CHANCE!
Morning everyone
Nadine has lost most of her convection

Seems our two areas, including Nadine, have been working on making quite the comeback since I last checked. Nadine looks like a hurricane again.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Is lane developing an eye like feature?
She's certainly trying

801. BVI
Quoting CaribBoy:
STILL NOT A DROP FROM 92L HERE AT 18N63W. WHAT'S GOING ON? I SEE EVERYTHING IS GOIGN THROUGH MARTINIQUE/DOMINICA/GUADELOUPE AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THEY ALREADY HAD RAIN YESTERDAY..... LOTS OF IT. NATURE REALLY GIVES US NO CHANCE!


If you get some of the rain make sure it then comes to us!!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
lol nvm, new blog
Quoting TomTaylor:
Nadine has lost most of her convection


She is turning extra-tropical but the Azores will still see impacts.
Quoting TomTaylor:
She's certainly trying

He I also thought it was a girls name at first.
Corrected Recon...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CCA
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 17 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-121 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NA872 MISSION
TO NADINE TAKEOFF 19/1800Z
Quoting BVI:


If you get some of the rain make sure it then comes to us!!


:-)
Good morning, I am wondering if anyone has done any investigating as to the reason for the polar ice caps severe melting? Any insight or observations?

this link is what got my curiosity

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dR7IlDKzd90

sorry if I'm way of topic but if anyone knows I would think you guys would.

Thanks