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Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters
"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ive never seen a storm that strong there... is it going for Africa...? a record?
Tropical Storm Delta struck the Canary Islands as a strong extratropical storm, causing significant damage and then crossed over Morocco before dissipating.






00z GFS is spoiling all hopes for rains in the NE Caribbean. So sad...
Quoting wxchaser97:

If that pans out then yes, also a pretty sharp curve. Are you working on a blog tonight?


As we speak.


Nadine the dancing Mermaid
Quoting MTWX:


Angisoq, Greenland


I've often wondered what melting impacts Tropical-borne storms have on Greenland when a system hits or brushes by Greenland. Especially those that have tracks that zipped by Nova Scotia like Leslie. Would it be able to travel far enough inland to have any small impact on the ice sheet (even if negligble)?

Might make for an interesting Blog Topic for Dr. Masters someday. :)
Nadine you look so good, I'm going to go out on a limb and say you become the 2nd Major Hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Tropical Storm Delta struck the Canary Islands as a strong extratropical storm, causing significant damage and then crossed over Morocco before dissipating.








keyword...tropical cyclone...
for the first time maybe
Good night everyone, Greenland is feeling the effects of Extra-Tropical Storm Leslie tonight.
Nadine is really impressing me tonight.
490. GTcooliebai: 180 hrs. heads up Canary Islands and Morocco
496 trHUrrIXC5MMX: I've never seen a storm that strong there... is it going for Africa...? a record?

I've been wondering whether the GreenSahara era -- the last time that the Global weather might have been as warm as we are expecting soon -- was caused by hurricanes (and post/extraTropicalSystems) recurving back into NorthAfrica (rather than Waves taking a more northern path through the Sahara).

Seems like an awful lot of TropicalCyclones have been headed toward the Azores this year. A little farther east and a smidgeon farther south woulda sent those storms into the Madeira&CanaryIslands then Morocco for a trip through the Sahara.
Quoting ZStoner:


I've often wondered what melting impacts Tropical-borne storms have on Greenland when a system hits or brushes by Greenland. Especially those that have tracks that zipped by Nova Scotia like Leslie. Would it be able to travel far enough inland to have any small impact on the ice sheet (even if negligble)?

Might make for an interesting Blog Topic for Dr. Masters someday. :)


I doubt they would be much different than other powerful extratropical low pressure systems. At that point the warm core is completely gone, so the rain would have no melting effect.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Nadine you look so good, I'm going to go out on a limb and say you become the 2nd Major Hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

I say it first:)
Quoting will40:



it is developing one off of africa but a long ways out
Do the gfs drop the Caribbean system?
Can't find any good live feeds from the southern tip of Greenland, but there are a few scattered about:

http://www.webcamgalore.com/EN/Greenland/countryc am-0.html
last post for the night/morning
got to get some sleep later all



wunder if whats to nadines ne that appears coming down sw ward torwards her will have an effect

anyway out we shall see after 8
Quoting Grothar:


Go to my blog I wrote on September 4th. The middle part.
popping in between laundry loads :p checked out your blog...good info and liked the prognosticating .... now I see why the future runs some have been posting makes sense. Thanks
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
last post for the night/morning
got to get some sleep later all



wunder if whats to nadines ne that appears coming down sw ward torwards her will have an effect

anyway out we shall see after 8
wondered about the same feature....how is she going to get past that? We will see...sleep well.
Nadine taking on an S shape.

186 Skyepony As for putting additives in airliner & military fuel for high level reflection.. I'll have to look later for something but to start the research is certainly happening.

Without going further, why would military aircraft want to make themselves more visible to the enemy?
Going further, why would commercial airlines or the military wanna wreck their jet engines? Don't fly through volcanic eruptions cuz the dust melts in the engines then deposits onto the rotors: which throws them off balance and cause excessive vibrations... leading to engine failure.
Aluminum oxide in the fuel would cause the exact same problem, material deposition on the rotors.

186 Skyepony Here's a Harvard/NASA paper to mull over... Interesting using DE...never thought of that... That is such a drying substance. It's edible, non-toxic, we put it in grain & food to kill bugs. It very effectively dries out & dehydrated bugs with exoskeletons. Awful to get in your eyes. Completely fits the description of white fine powder that people found on cars & saw "raining" from the sky during Isaac.

DiatomousEarth is not harmless. Admittedly folks thought it was once upon a time. Useta put it in baby powder, and to "make rice look white" for bulk buyers as well as insect control. Of course, any bulk buyer learned on their mother's knee that ya had to wash the rice until the water was clear before cooking it.
Useta think asbestos was harmless too.
And for the exact same reason, most DE products have been pulled off the market. Not only was DE killing insects by causing perforations in their digestive and respiratory/circulatory systems, it also perforated then embedded itself into peoples lungs... leading to a DE-equivalent of asbestosis, and cancer.
Nowadays, there are no baby powders containing DE. Rice is no longer allowed to be contaminated with DE. And even garden supplies containing the safer forms of DE are labeled with a
"Handle with CAUTION: Diatomous Earth is known to cause lung damage and is a known carcinogen."

As for the "fine white powder", it's fairly common for strong seawinds and sea-borne storms to deposit salt upon cars/etc when they cross onto land.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
last post for the night/morning
got to get some sleep later all



wunder if whats to nadines ne that appears coming down sw ward torwards her will have an effect

anyway out we shall see after 8


In short...yes...that's what makes Nadine ultimately turn eastward late in the forecast. I did my usual daily (and detialed) blog update released in the last hour...which details the forecast of Nadine and all the other stuff currently in the Atlantic....

That swirl to the NE of Nadine I think is ex-Isaac....believe it or not. I've been tracking it in the last several days worth of charts that I have been posting on my blog....
522. VR46L
Still watching this blob in the BOC ...Interesting ,very Interesting...

Quoting VR46L:
Still watching this blob in the BOC ...Interesting ,very Interesting...


Which blob. I see many blobs.
WTNT34 KNHC 120843
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012

...NADINE STRENGTHENS MORE WHILE IT REMAINS FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 46.6W
ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NADINE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




I hope Nadine keeps away from Bermuda. They had enough problems from Leslie.











Good morning, everyone! This is from a friend in Newfoundland.

We had winds up to 130 km/hr here today.....lots of trees down and siding off of houses on the street. There were windows blown out of buildings downtown, roofs came off, sheds were uprooted....one landed on a Corvette in Paradise! I only lost the garbage container I had in my yard.....wonder where that landed!
Good morning everyone, Nadine is looking good this morning.
Quoting ZStoner:


I've often wondered what melting impacts Tropical-borne storms have on Greenland when a system hits or brushes by Greenland. Especially those that have tracks that zipped by Nova Scotia like Leslie. Would it be able to travel far enough inland to have any small impact on the ice sheet (even if negligble)?

Might make for an interesting Blog Topic for Dr. Masters someday. :)


Although the 'melt season' in Greenland is almost over for this year, this storm is bringing warmer air from the southern latitudes as well as heavy rains, which will probably result in some additional melting. Of greater concern to me are the cyclonic winds which may cause more of the arctic ocean ice to be flushed out of the Fram Strait between Eastern Greenland and Svalbard. 2012 has already obliterated every existing record minimum for Arctic Sea Ice, in terms of Extent, Area and Volume.
Good morning. The 6z GFS is suggesting CV season isn't done yet. This would be our fastest developing CV storm of the year if it happened, a well defined TS before reaching the CV islands:

Sanba has been officially classified as a typhoon, the eye is lo longer apparent on satellite because it shrank overnight. It's very clear on microwave though, eye wall is about two thirds complete.



Forecast to be a major as it heads for southern Japan or the Koreas... that would be very bad.

Nadine looks soo lonely out there :( Not even a yellow crayon area to keep her company. I mean, Helene had Gordon, Isaac had Joyce and then Kirk, then Kirk had Leslie toward the end, and Michael had Leslie the whole time. And I'm pretty sure that every storm since Ernesto has at least had a yellow circle somewhere in the Atlantic to keep company.



Nadine is one lonely duck :/
GFS is putting the hurricane season in check, after Nadine there is nothing, nadda, zero, zilch,
Good Morning...

Keep an eye out for P28L:

Wishing everyone a wonderful Wednesday. 'See' you all this evening.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Wishing everyone a wonderful Wednesday. 'See' you all this evening.


Take care...
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Wishing everyone a wonderful Wednesday. 'See' you all this evening.
Thanks, have a great day today. Hope the weather is all good where you're at.
Probably a 50-60 mph tropical storm right now. CIMSS ADT is already nearing hurricane intensity.

...........GOOD MORNING FOLKS, 7-DAY Forecast for the Tampa Bay area..back to normal for us, although I am wondering whats coming to us next Monday?? to raise our rain chances to 60%??
540. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:

Which blob. I see many blobs.


When I posted it, it was one blob the image must have updated ...
542. VR46L
Quoting mcluvincane:
GFS is putting the hurricane season in check, after Nadine there is nothing, nadda, zero, zilch,


The GFS that missed the most beautiful storm of the year....until it was a Cane ...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND GULF WATERS
TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH FLOODING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

FLEMING
My little pick of the day, weather watch for the northern Bahamas.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Probably a 50-60 mph tropical storm right now. CIMSS ADT is already nearing hurricane intensity.

It should be, extra emphasis on the should, a 50-60mph TS at the next advisory.
Quoting LargoFl:
...........gOOD MORNING FOLKS, 7-DAY Forecast for the Tampa Bay area..back to normal for us, although I am wondering whats coming to us next Monday?? to raise our rain chances to 60%??

Is there a TW on it's way?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is there a TW on it's way?
dont know yet, 60% rain usually means something is coming towards us,dont see anything out there so far

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GULF MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THORUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT AND GULF MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD APPROACH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. OVERALL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED EXCEPT IN LOW
LYING AREAS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD COME TO
AN END EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

$$
90E will probably be renumbered soon.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
FORMING ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND
THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
90E up to near 100% with advisories being started this morning.
.......................GFS at 168 hours, florida looks clear
557. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
dont know yet, 60% rain usually means something is coming towards us,dont see anything out there so far


Bet its the Blobs in the BOC
I see that all we have on the board today is Nadine...

And She is going to visit the North Atlantic without making any land stops along the way. :)

(I know, a possible extra-tropical storm for someone is still possible)
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Although the 'melt season' in Greenland is almost over for this year, this storm is bringing warmer air from the southern latitudes as well as heavy rains, which will probably result in some additional melting. Of greater concern to me are the cyclonic winds which may cause more of the arctic ocean ice to be flushed out of the Fram Strait between Eastern Greenland and Svalbard. 2012 has already obliterated every existing record minimum for Arctic Sea Ice, in terms of Extent, Area and Volume.

But those records only go back to 1979, OL.
Quoting VR46L:


Bet its the Blobs in the BOC
yeah that has to be it, GFS doesnt show a thing, we'll we will see next week
GFS at 384 hours
562. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah that has to be it, GFS doesnt show a thing, we'll we will see next week


The Euro had it as a depression off New Orleans yesterday in a couple of days time
Good Morning..I see the Euro isnt done with tropical cyclone development



Quoting VR46L:


The Euro had it as a depression off New Orleans yesterday in a couple of days time
..ok we have to watch for that for sure
00z CMC -takes it across florida as an open low


Quoting ncstorm:
00z CMC -takes it across florida as an open low


ah thats the 60% then..ty
Nam at 84 hours...................
So is Nadine going to be another hype storm?(people screaming cat 5 for Leslie) or this time we're going to have some sense when tracking this one?.
The Nogaps takes it into Texas
Quoting ncstorm:
The Nogaps takes it into Texas
so right now the models are all over the place..guess we have to wait a few days huh
574. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
ah thats the 60% then..ty



and remember


THE WATER IN THE GULF IS ROCKET FUEL!!!
Quoting VR46L:



and remember


THE WATER IN THE GULF IS ROCKET FUEL
yeah sept and october we here watch the gulf for sure
Quoting ncstorm:
00z CMC -takes it across florida as an open low



Look at the trough!.Woot woot!.
579. SLU
Nadine closer to a hurricane than a minimal TS .

I hope she really puts on a show today cuz the female storms this year have been really pathetic.

ADT up to 3.7 already with Nadine, raw up to 3.9.


blob in the bahamas..
72 hour forecast...........
Blob watch early today
At the rate Nadine is going she will be fishy food.The fish have had it rough this year.J/K.
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah sept and october we here watch the gulf for sure


Especially you guys as fronts begin to stall further south. Y'all can get them from that too
Quoting washingtonian115:
At the rate Nadine is going she will be fishy food.The fish have had it rough this year.J/K.

Nadine = Fish

Michael = Boring

Leslie = Ugly and Boring.

Next please.
Bout to be late for school cause of traffic, thought I'd drop in and say Nadine looks good, probably a hurricane by tomorrow AM I think.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nadine = Fish

Michael = Boring

Leslie = Ugly and Boring.

Next please.


Osker;)
12/1145 UTC 18.6N 46.9W T3.5/3.5 NADINE -- Atlantic

55kts-60kts
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ADT up to 3.7 already with Nadine, raw up to 3.9.

ADT also has 70mph winds, I don't think it will go that high for the next advisory but it is possible and Nadine is certainly not at 45mph.

Actually raw T is now 4.0 now
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 990.0mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.9 4.0
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nadine = Fish

Michael = Boring

Leslie = Ugly and Boring.

Next please.
Michael was nothing boring imo.
Still a mess inside.



Getting much better quickly though. (Maybe an eyewall forming aswell?)
Quoting washingtonian115:
So is Nadine going to be another hype storm?(people screaming cat 5 for Leslie) or this time we're going to have some sense when tracking this one?.

It seems like she already wants to put on a show as she is organizing very nicely.

Quoting LargoFl:
yeah sept and october we here watch the gulf for sure

Yup with the stalled fronts or BOC or any ernergy that gets in might have a chance.

Quoting weatherh98:
Blob watch early today

Already, its too early.

I have to go to school, bye everyone.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nadine = Fish

Michael = Boring

Leslie = Ugly and Boring.

Next please.

So a major hurricane qualifies as boring?
I heard exIsaac is located near the Azores.

I see Nadine in the lower part of the image.

Also, there is a chance of formation east of the Azores according to SSD.
Quoting wxchaser97:

So a major hurricane qualifies as boring?

Didn't say that, Brother. But that particular storm was boring.
Mornin' gang!

ncstorm... mannn, those cmc runs I can do without. I like the Nogaps much better, besides, Texas needs a drink, south and central Florida has had enough rain for awhile. I was told yesterday that within a few days they will begin dumping Okeechobee water on us, which will turn the St. Lucie estuary into a desert again.

Largo, you might like this site, LOTS of cool stuff if you explore it. (others might too, it just seems Mr. Largo explores widely for interesting graphics for us.)The hydrologic snapshots on the right can keep you occupied for hours. Go Hydrology

I find myself checking in here daily, he creates some nice graphics that help clarify a very complex hydrological system.
Quoting wxchaser97:

So a major hurricane qualifies as boring?



whats not quote the downcaster and fishcaster too me there nothing but trolls and by guteing them you are feeding the trolls and thats what they like they will nevere learn
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' gang!

ncstorm... mannn, those cmc runs I can do without. I like the Nogaps much better, besides, Texas needs a drink, south and central Florida has had enough rain for awhile. I was told yesterday that within a few days they will begin dumping Okeechobee water on us, which will turn the St. Lucie estuary into a desert again.

Largo, you might like this site, LOTS of cool stuff if you explore it. (others might too, it just seems Mr. Largo explores widely for interesting graphics for us.)The hydrologic snapshots on the right can keep you occupied for hours. Go Hydrology

I find myself checking in here daily, he creates some nice graphics that help clarify a very complex hydrological system.

I agree. Many dog Largo for endlessly posting graphic after graphic of weather that really say the same thing. I, on the other hand, enjoy it.
600. VR46L
Quoting Bobbyweather:
I heard exIsaac is located near the Azores.

I see Nadine in the lower part of the image.

Also, there is a chance of formation east of the Azores according to SSD.


Ex Isaac ???
Quoting VR46L:



and remember


THE WATER IN THE GULF IS ROCKET FUEL!!!

Yes indeed!
Quoting VR46L:


Ex Isaac ???

I found it in NCHurricane09's blog.
For those who didn't see, my blog.
What's up next, Oscar. Time for focus on him. This Nadine won't amount to much.

Blob watch in the BOC.
605. VR46L
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I found it in MiamiHurricane09's blog.


I believe that maybe EX Michael .. to call any bits of the Ghost of Isaac Ex Isaac now would be a stretch
Quoting TomballTXPride:
What's up next, Oscar. Time for focus on him. This Nadine won't amount to much.

Blob watch in the BOC.
I think Nadine would be a major.
Quoting VR46L:


I believe that maybe EX Michael .. to call any bits of the Ghost of Isaac Ex Isaac now would be a stretch

I changed it to NCHurricane09. I was confused.
Quoting allancalderini:
I think Nadine would be a major.

Doubt it.
609. VR46L
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I changed it to NCHurricane09. I was confused.


Thats Ok .. Everyone makes mistakes :) especially me!!
ATCF says Nadine is at 50 knots:

AL, 14, 2012091212, , BEST, 0, 187N, 470W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 275, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
611. beell
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I found it in a blog.


Ya'll gotta be kidding. X Isaac is coming down the west side of the large low pressure trough around 60N-headed for the North Sea.
612. beell
.
Researchers devise more accurate method for predicting hurricane activity

A new method for forecasting seasonal hurricane activity developed by North Carolina State University researchers is 15 percent more accurate than previous techniques.


...Researchers have developed a “network motif-based model” that evaluates historical data for all of the variables in all of the places at all of the times in order to identify those combinations of factors that are most predictive of seasonal hurricane activity. For example, some combinations of factors may correlate only to low activity, while other may correlate only to high activity.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Doubt it.


Then again, who expected little and truly pathetic TD13 to become a major hurricane? :P
615. beell
....!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then again, who expected little and truly pathetic TD13 to become a major hurricane? :P

The conditions won't be as favorable for her. You can't compare that storm to her. Two entirely different time frames.

Plus, the name "Nadine" does not have a major hurricane ring to it. It just doesn't.


Not bad.
Quoting HurricaneDan:


Not bad.

Dan. Quarterback this for us. Break it down. What's going on here? I want to hear your analysis along with the Microwave pic you displayed....
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Nadine is at 50 knots:

AL, 14, 2012091212, , BEST, 0, 187N, 470W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 275, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
SAB put Nadine at 55kts in its update an hour ago, CIMSS puts Nadine at 61kts and strengthening quickly.

The 11am update will take the storm to at least the 55kt value, and if CIMSS hits 65kts by then - which is what its raw T# is right now - I wouldn't be surprised to see a blended value of 60kts at 11am. They won't take Nadine to hurricane strength, as far out to sea as it is, until ATCF, SAB and CIMSS are all closer, even if CIMSS gets there before 11am. But I'd be shocked if Nadine wasn't a hurricane by 5pm. This storm is getting itself organized a whole heck of a lot faster than predicted. Kinda like...Michael. Season's second (official) major?
I do like this trend that the more intense storms stay far out to sea and the ones that get close to the CONUS can't get over category 1.

Yeah.

I like this.
that Texas death ridge and east coast trough are getting old. Seems those features have been present for years now. I would like instead for a nice trough in the mid-Mississippi valley with a ridge in the Southeast US extending out into the SW Atlantic. Those areas could use a pattern change.
EP, 90, 2012091212, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1056W, 30, 1006, LO

the Epac invest not being classified TD yet...whf?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

The conditions won't be as favorable for her. You can't compare that storm to her. Two entirely different time frames.

Plus, the name "Nadine" does not have a major hurricane ring to it. It just doesn't.


I wasn't comparing Nadine to Michael in any way, just pointing out that no one expected Michael to intensify at all. You can't predict what these things do really, just speculate.
Quoting CloudGatherer:
SAB put Nadine at 55kts in its update an hour ago, CIMSS puts Nadine at 61kts and strengthening quickly.

The 11am update will take the storm to at least the 55kt value, and if CIMSS hits 65kts by then - which is what its raw T# is right now - I wouldn't be surprised to see a blended value of 60kts at 11am. They won't take Nadine to hurricane strength, as far out to sea as it is, until ATCF, SAB and CIMSS are all closer, even if CIMSS gets there before 11am. But I'd be shocked if Nadine wasn't a hurricane by 5pm. This storm is getting itself organized a whole heck of a lot faster than predicted. Kinda like...Michael. Season's second (official) major?


do you or anyone has the final tropical activity prediction for this year...just your thoughts. ???
I'll say 16-17 storms, 9 hurricanes and 2-3 majors

yes... an EL NINO year..
from the farmers almanac..

September 2012
12th-15th. Hurricane threat Southeast Coast.
16th-19th. A tropical disturbance dawdles off the coast. Showery, then clearing.
20th-23rd. Windy and rainy.
24th-27th. Squalls sweep across the region from west to east.
28th-30th. Another spell of unsettled weather.

October 2012
1st-3rd. Dry and tranquil.
4th-7th. Gusty winds, mainly fair.
8th-11th. Heavy rains, thanks to a low-pressure disturbance moving off Atlantic Coast.
12th-15th. Chilly rains spread through the Deep South into Carolinas.
16th-19th. Drying out after a week of damp weather.
20th-23rd. Scattered showers, then clearing and unseasonable cold, with an early frost for some localities.
24th-27th. Light rain.
28th-31st. Fair for trick-or-treaters.

November 2012
1st-3rd. Fair.
4th-7th. Stormy, especially Gulf Coast, then clearing, cold weather.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I wasn't comparing Nadine to Michael in any way, just pointing out that no one expected Michael to intensify at all. You can't predict what these things do really, just speculate.

Oh, no. You can predict them very well. With good accuracy. The NHC nailed a couple storms in the past couple years.

Speculating is what we do here on this blog, yes. But predicting is what the professionals do. And they do it quite well.

Hands down.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


do you or anyone has the final tropical activity prediction for this year...just your thoughts. ???
I'll say 16-17 storms, 9 hurricanes and 2-3 majors

yes... an EL NINO year..




It is not a el niño. Year stop calling it that
Quoting Tazmanian:




It is not a el niño. Year stop calling it that

yes it is...
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I do like this trend that the more intense storms stay far out to sea and the ones that get close to the CONUS can't get over category 1.

Yeah.

I like this.







Again I reiterate, that mindset you're taking is why we need a new scale. Normal category 1 hurricanes can't produce this, and the reason Isaac didn't intensify was the same reason Ike didn't - it's pressures got so low that the wind field expanded, increasing surge, which may I remind you is THE number one reason for deaths in a tropical cyclone, water. Other than winds, Isaac might have well been a major hurricane as the storm surge it was producing was equal to one, same with the pressure. And plus, there was still even quite a bit of damage from winds as it where because Isaac pretty much crawled across Louisiana as a hurricane, giving a lot of people periods of high end TS to low end Hurricane winds.
El Nino it is Tazmanian.

And it is likely to only intensify.

Ahhhhhhhhh...
Quoting CybrTeddy:







Again I reiterate, that mindset you're taking is why we need a new scale. Normal category 1 hurricanes can't produce this, and the reason Isaac didn't intensify was the same reason Ike didn't - it's pressures got so low that the wind field expanded, increasing surge, which may I remind you is THE number one reason for deaths in a tropical cyclone, water. Other than winds, Isaac might have well been a major hurricane as the storm surge it was producing was equal to one, same with the pressure. And plus, there was still even quite a bit of damage from winds as it where because Isaac pretty much crawled across Louisiana as a hurricane, giving a lot of people periods of high end TS to low end Hurricane winds.

"NHC has recognized the importance of storm surge since our inception and has been a
part of several significant advances in forecasting storm surge. Currently, the NHC is
experimenting with two new approaches intended to help communities prepare for and
respond to surge threats. The first is the application of a Storm Surge Warning, which
would be issued by the National Weather Service to highlight exclusively the
expectation of life-threatening surge. The second is an easy-to-understand highresolution map showing the forecast inundation from storm surge. Both approaches are
being developed with input from communications and social science experts to
maximize the clarity and utility of the new products.
The new approaches to surge are being designed to reinforce instructions from local
emergency managers. We cannot overstate the importance of following evacuation
orders and other instructions from local officials, regardless of the category or strength
of a tropical storm or hurricane. Ignoring evacuation orders risks not only the lives of
those who stay behind, but also the lives of first responders who may be called upon to
rescue them."
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Dan. Quarterback this for us. Break it down. What's going on here? I want to hear your analysis along with the Microwave pic you displayed....


Well, Nadine is strengthening, as convection is increasing and the banding is becoming more organized. There may be an eyewall starting on the north side, but it is weak if it is there. Dry air is wrapping a little on the south side of the circulation, but that shouldn't hinder strengthening much.



If Nadine can grow some more convection and a stronger CDO over the center, we could see rapid intensification tonight or tomorrow, and I give that a 40% chance, as conditions right now are favorable. I would expect a hurricane at 5AM or 11AM tomorrow, and a peak around 100 MPH seems likely before shear picks up and Nadine begins to recurve.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

yes it is...

Incorrect.

"ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*"
"The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific is near average."
Quoting CybrTeddy:







Again I reiterate, that mindset you're taking is why we need a new scale. Normal category 1 hurricanes can't produce this, and the reason Isaac didn't intensify was the same reason Ike didn't - it's pressures got so low that the wind field expanded, increasing surge, which may I remind you is THE number one reason for deaths in a tropical cyclone, water. Other than winds, Isaac might have well been a major hurricane as the storm surge it was producing was equal to one, same with the pressure. And plus, there was still even quite a bit of damage from winds as it where because Isaac pretty much crawled across Louisiana as a hurricane, giving a lot of people periods of high end TS to low end Hurricane winds.

Oh you're just posting all that to be PC and get all the plus votes. Seen this story before. Nothing new.

The fact of the matter is there has not been greater than a category 1 storm to impact the CONUS all year, with the more intense storms (Michael the Major) staying way out to see.

That, my friend, is a fact.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Incorrect.

"ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*"
"The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific is near average."


whatever...It's becoming el nino anyway...
636. JLPR2
Looking good...



Though I wish it were more or less 1,000miles to the west. XD Even though I studied for my finance test I still feel it's going to kick my behind. :\
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"NHC has recognized the importance of storm surge since our inception and has been a
part of several significant advances in forecasting storm surge. Currently, the NHC is
experimenting with two new approaches intended to help communities prepare for and
respond to surge threats. The first is the application of a Storm Surge Warning, which
would be issued by the National Weather Service to highlight exclusively the
expectation of life-threatening surge. The second is an easy-to-understand highresolution map showing the forecast inundation from storm surge. Both approaches are
being developed with input from communications and social science experts to
maximize the clarity and utility of the new products.
The new approaches to surge are being designed to reinforce instructions from local
emergency managers. We cannot overstate the importance of following evacuation
orders and other instructions from local officials, regardless of the category or strength
of a tropical storm or hurricane. Ignoring evacuation orders risks not only the lives of
those who stay behind, but also the lives of first responders who may be called upon to
rescue them."


Still though, people are going to look at a Category 1 producing 15 feet of storm surge as 'no big deal'. The whole SSHS needs to be replaced, as the dynamics of destruction in a hurricane are far from exact as a category.

For example, let's say Isaac is producing 80 mph winds, let's give that a 1.5 out of 5 rating for danger, then let's give Isaac's surge a 3 out of 5, and rainfall a 3 out of 5. Add those totals up and divide them by 3, you get an average rating of 2.5/5. People might take that more seriously than *only* a Category 1.

That's me thinking aloud of course, as there is far more dynamics that go into it but you get the general idea.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


whatever...It's becoming el nino anyway...

It may or it may not. The CFS model shows cooling before peaking just under 1C, and this is with a warm bias (It had us at near 2C for September at the beginning of the season). We will have to see.

Quoting HurricaneDan:


Well, Nadine is strengthening, as convection is increasing and the banding is becoming more organized. There may be an eyewall starting on the north side, but it is weak if it is there. Dry air is wrapping a little on the south side of the circulation, but that shouldn't hinder strengthening much.



If Nadine can grow some more convection and a stronger CDO over the center, we could see rapid intensification tonight or tomorrow, and I give that a 40% chance, as conditions right now are favorable. I would expect a hurricane at 5AM or 11AM tomorrow, and a peak around 100 MPH seems likely before shear picks up and Nadine begins to recurve.

Excellent thoughts! Yeah, if she can get that eyewall underway, it'll be a much different story.
with all the rain we were getting this summer, I am not surprised to see this.lets hope they are right..I love snow!

Quoting TomballTXPride:

Oh you're just posting all that to be PC and get all the plus votes. Seen this story before. Nothing new.

The fact of the matter is there has not been greater than a category 1 storm to impact the CONUS all year, with the more intense storms (Michael the Major) staying way out to see.

That, my friend, is a fact.


Oh you caught me, how silly and obvious it was, I'm clearly posting for pluses on my post.

I'm posting that because I'm tired of the mindset that it has to be a Category 3 to do any damage. Heck there hasn't been a Category 2 even strike the USA since Hurricane Ike, because all these *super* Category 1's keep on developing. Irene at landfall and Isaac to name examples.

Do I care that hurricanes are recurving? No. If you have any interest in tropical cyclones you'd still track them, because I love seeing them out to sea. Besides, other countries have been pounded while we sit here *unscathed*. In 2007, we saw two Category 5 hurricanes hit Central America, two. In 2008, we saw Cuba get hit with 3 major hurricanes a tropical storm, Fay, Gustav, Ike, and Paloma. In 2010, we saw Alex, Karl, Matthew, Igor all cause major damage to both Canada and Mexico. I'd rather those storms all had somehow gone out to sea than what they did.
Post 521. NCHurricane09
In short...yes...that's what makes Nadine ultimately turn eastward late in the forecast. I did my usual daily (and detialed) blog update released in the last hour...which details the forecast of Nadine and all the other stuff currently in the Atlantic....

That swirl to the NE of Nadine I think is ex-Isaac....believe it or not. I've been tracking it in the last several days worth of charts that I have been posting on my blog....


I'm not sure what information you're using, but according to NCHurricane09, it is ex-Isaac.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh you caught me, how silly and obvious it was, I'm clearly posting for pluses on my post.

I'm posting that because I'm tired of the mindset that it has to be a Category 3 to do any damage. Heck there hasn't been a Category 2 even strike the USA since Hurricane Ike, because all these *super* Category 1's keep on developing. Irene at landfall and Isaac to name examples.

Do I care that hurricanes are recurving? If you have any interest in tropical cyclones you'd still track them, because I love seeing them out to sea. Besides, other countries since Hurricane Wilma have been pounded. In 2007, we saw two Category 5 hurricanes hit Central America, two. In 2008, we saw Cuba get hit with 3 major hurricanes a tropical storm, Gustav, Ike, and Paloma. In 2010, we saw Alex, Karl, Matthew, Igor all cause major damage to both Canada and Mexico. I'd rather those storms all had somehow gone out to sea than what they did.



Why don't you start an organization? Perhaps a website? A movement? Be a pioneer. If you really feel so strong about something, go out there. Make a different. That's what I tell the AWG folks but they would rather sit here all day thinking they are making a difference.

Ted, with all due respect, I have to agree with the revisions needed to get a new scale in place that takes into account the storm surge better.

But you're on to something. Let's get this is place!

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Still though, people are going to look at a Category 1 producing 15 feet of storm surge as 'no big deal'. The whole SSHS needs to be replaced, as the dynamics of destruction in a hurricane are far from exact as a category.

For example, let's say Isaac is producing 80 mph winds, let's give that a 1.5 out of 5 rating for danger, then let's give Isaac's surge a 3 out of 5, and rainfall a 3 out of 5. Add those totals up and divide them by 3, you get an average rating of 2.5/5. People might take that more seriously than *only* a Category 1.

That's me thinking aloud of course, as there is far more dynamics that go into it but you get the general idea.
what they are NOT putting into this new data, is HOW much damage is going to occur, with 20 inches of rain and water up to the roof tops from flooding..20 inches of rain is more than 20 feet..of water on the ground..they need to tell people how dangerous the rainfall totals will be,storm surge and winds are only part of the devastating effects from any tropical system, no matter what the category of the storm is...people hear cat-1 or just a tropical storm and they ignore the warnings..........tell them..20 inches of rain is coming and the water will be up to your roof..THEN they will listen
I do like this trend that the more intense storms stay far out to sea and the ones that get close to the CONUS can't get over category 1. I mean Isaac as a category....well I couldn't even imagine. It was horrible enough.

But this trend of the intense hurricanes not hitting the CONUS...

Yeah.

I like this.
Quoting TomballTXPride:



Why don't you start an organization? Perhaps a website? A movement? Be a pioneer. If you really feel so strong about something, go out there. Make a different. That's what I tell the AWG folks but they would rather sit here all day thinking they are making a difference.

Ted, with all due respect, I have to agree with the revisions needed to get a new scale in place that takes into account the storm surge better.

But you're on to something. Let's get this is place!


I wish I had that kind of time to do that lol. Maybe if I worked in the NHC I'd try to put emphasis on a new scale, one that is very simple for the public to understand and easy for the NHC to apply to advisories, personally I'd call it the 'Cyclone Hazard Danger scale' or something like that. But no one's going to listen to a guy without a met degree, it would have to be someone like Dr. Masters to start making the hopes for a new scale during an interview on TWC.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Good luck with that. Doc Master's is too busy spearheading the AWG movement.


Well, most of the Doc's posts are on tropical weather as it is, as that's how most of the attention towards his blog is directed too. You'll never see a GW post get 7,000 comments like you did during Isaac.
CyberTeddy is making a very good point.

Ike was "only a Cat 2" thought many on Bolivar peninsula. Despite warnings of a Cat 4 storm surge, many stayed and died for that reason

Quoting CybrTeddy:







Again I reiterate, that mindset you're taking is why we need a new scale. Normal category 1 hurricanes can't produce this, and the reason Isaac didn't intensify was the same reason Ike didn't - it's pressures got so low that the wind field expanded, increasing surge, which may I remind you is THE number one reason for deaths in a tropical cyclone, water. Other than winds, Isaac might have well been a major hurricane as the storm surge it was producing was equal to one, same with the pressure. And plus, there was still even quite a bit of damage from winds as it where because Isaac pretty much crawled across Louisiana as a hurricane, giving a lot of people periods of high end TS to low end Hurricane winds.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, most of the Doc's posts are on tropical weather as it is, as that's how most of the attention towards his blog is directed too. You'll never see a GW post get 7,000 comments like you did during Isaac.

Very true, Ted. The tropics are what most people care about. That's what makes the folks come back for more. That's what made this place grow as a community I have sensed.
Anyone think that next year's hurricane season will feature some big threats for the US? Some are saying that we may have full El Nino conditions by then which would give us a more tranquil season like 2006 or 2009, unlike this year where the atmosphere seems to be lagging behind for El Nino conditions. Maybe 2014 is the year to look out for.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hmm..


Fish, Cody.

Fish.

You gonna be in chat later with BeanTech???
Quoting lobdelse81:
Anyone think that next year's hurricane season will feature some big threats for the US? Some are saying that we may have full El Nino conditions by then which would give us a more tranquil season like 2006 or 2009, unlike this year where the atmosphere seems to be lagging behind for El Nino conditions. Maybe 2014 is the year to look out for.

Sea Surface Temperatures are going to start cooling in a month or two...back to Neutral at least. There will be no El Nino for next year's hurricane season. As for potential impact, there is no way we will be able to know until we're through the winter and see what the mean NAO phase among a bunch of other things.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

Fish, Cody.

Fish.

You gonna be in chat later with BeanTech???

No.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hmm..


I see an EYE!
Well, I think I see one on the latest image.
We appear locked into an "Earl 2010" pattern now until the end of the year.

And let's see if we can get that GOM to close down early like it did in 2010...

Fine by me.

Fine by me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sea Surface Temperatures are going to start cooling in a month or two...back to Neutral at least. There will be no El Nino for next year's hurricane season. As for potential impact, there is no way we will be able to know until we're through the winter and see what the mean NAO phase among a bunch of other things.


No.

How about on Thursday, then. I really enjoyed talking to you those couple times. I'll be in then with BeanTech.
Quoting lobdelse81:
Anyone think that next year's hurricane season will feature some big threats for the US? Some are saying that we may have full El Nino conditions by then which would give us a more tranquil season like 2006 or 2009, unlike this year where the atmosphere seems to be lagging behind for El Nino conditions. Maybe 2014 is the year to look out for.


Rather impossible to say.

Still think we're not done yet with this season in terms of threats, as everything to me is starting to point towards increased chances of development in the SW Caribbean towards the end of September or early October. We shall see.
TROPICAL UPDATE
_________________________________

Tropical Storm Nadine

click for BIGGER pic...
So the GOM is done for seeing storms this year?
Quoting Stats56:
CyberTeddy is making a very good point.

Ike was "only a Cat 2" thought many on Bolivar peninsula. Despite warnings of a Cat 4 storm surge, many stayed and died for that reason

I believe the folks that stayed Bolivar Peninsula would have stayed on matter what the category. I have relatives who have lived over there since the 1920's. They left because they could tell the surge was going to be bad simply for the fact of how high the tide had gotten while the storm was so far out in the Gulf. They definitely mad a good move.
Something for a few bloggers to keep in mind.

Quoting JasonRE:
So the GOM is done for seeing storms this year?
i would not go that far yet maybe by nov 1st if if don't see anything then it could be done

there is 80 days of the season left

lots can happen in 80 days
No great shock, EPac's got a TD, it appears:

invest_RENUMBER_ep902012_ep112012.ren
Quoting JasonRE:
So the GOM is done for seeing storms this year?


Always in motion the future is.
I hope the next blog is tropics related.

I really do.

I really do.

Keeping fingers crossed and hopes high...
To CyberTeddy and TomballTx, I though the NHC was already working on a new scale, especially in light of what Ike's surge did in relativity to its wind speed?
Quoting Neapolitan:
No great shock, EPac's got a TD, it appears:

invest_RENUMBER_ep902012_ep112012.ren

Any threat to land do you foresee? Or another fish?
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
To CyberTeddy and TomballTx, I though the NHC was already working on a new scale, especially in light of what Ike's surge did in relativity to its wind speed?

Would make sense.

Definitely would.

A new scale should be well rounded and benefit all.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Would make sense.

Definitely would.

A new scale should be well rounded and benefit all.
Well, despite Ike only being a Category 2 storm, I do remember the NHC emphasizing well ahead of time that it was pushing a much larger surge than a normal Category 2 storm. I don't know it people just didn't comprehend what the NHC was saying, or they just ignored the warnings. Of course, I watch this site a lot during hurricane season, so I was well aware of the fact.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Fish, Cody.

Fish.

You gonna be in chat later with BeanTech???


Ya you are right. The fish living in the Azores should not be concerned with this. You know as a person in Canada who just witnessed MILLIONS of dollars in damage in flooding and wind from Leslie, I get a little tired of people on here who completely jam the blog with post after post when there is a low pressure sysetem in the Gulf, but then could car eless when a tropical storm or Hurricane heads elsewhere and causes destruction. It is frankly pathetic.

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Monday

There has been discussion about including other hurricane hazards, especially storm surge, in the same scale as wind. NHC has recognized the importance of storm surge since our inception and has been a part of several significant advances in forecasting storm surge. NHC is currently experimenting with two new approaches intended to help communities prepare for and respond to surge threats.

Here is the link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20120910_pa_surgeSca le.pdf
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
To CyberTeddy and TomballTx, I though the NHC was already working on a new scale, especially in light of what Ike's surge did in relativity to its wind speed?


From what I've gathered they're only going to be increasing the emphasis on certain dangers. I think the only way you're going to gather people's attention is if you completely get rid of the Category system.
Quoting NovaScotia33:


Ya you are right. The fish living in the Azores should not be concerned with this. You know as a person in Canada who just witnessed MILLIONS of dollars in damage in flooding and wind from Leslie, I get a little tired of people on here who completely jam the blog with post after post when there is a low pressure sysetem in the Gulf, but then could car eless when a tropical storm or Hurricane heads elsewhere and causes destruction. It is frankly pathetic.

And your point being?
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Well, despite Ike only being a Category 2 storm, I do remember the NHC emphasizing well ahead of time that it was pushing a much larger surge than a normal Category 2 storm. I don't know it people just didn't comprehend what the NHC was saying, or they just ignored the warnings. Of course, I watch this site a lot during hurricane season, so I was well aware of the fact.


It's one thing to get the new scale designed and officially implemented, but it's a whole other ball of wax to actually get people to listen to it.

You can take a horse to water...
Quoting NovaScotia33:


Ya you are right. The fish living in the Azores should not be concerned with this. You know as a person in Canada who just witnessed MILLIONS of dollars in damage in flooding and wind from Leslie, I get a little tired of people on here who completely jam the blog with post after post when there is a low pressure sysetem in the Gulf, but then could car eless when a tropical storm or Hurricane heads elsewhere and causes destruction. It is frankly pathetic.


Surprised no one posted the pictures of damage in Canada from Leslie.

Quoting TomballTXPride:


It's one thing to get the new scale designed and officially implemented, but it's a whole other ball of wax to actually get people to listen to it.

You can take a horse to water...
So true.
Happy?

YouTube video of insane driver crashing into tree while trying to pass stalled cars in a flash flood last night on Siesta Key. This has been on TWC this morning as well.
9/11/12 Siesta Flash Flood crash

What happened to Storm2ktracker?
Quoting TomballTXPride:


It's one thing to get the new scale designed and officially implemented, but it's a whole other ball of wax to actually get people to listen to it.

You can take a horse to water...


Right on the money. Despite warnings of certain death, people stayed or waited too long to leave.

Said, but true.
Sanba.

Ok. Repeat after me.

Sanba.

Now this name has category 5 hurricane/typhoon status written all over it.

One more time

Sanba.

Quoting Stats56:


Right on the money. Despite warnings of certain death, people stayed or waited too long to leave.

Said, but true.

Yep. It is very sad.
Invest 11E????
Quoting NovaScotia33:


Ya you are right. The fish living in the Azores should not be concerned with this. You know as a person in Canada who just witnessed MILLIONS of dollars in damage in flooding and wind from Leslie, I get a little tired of people on here who completely jam the blog with post after post when there is a low pressure sysetem in the Gulf, but then could car eless when a tropical storm or Hurricane heads elsewhere and causes destruction. It is frankly pathetic.


Heh, as someone living in Iceland, we're where the storms go after you Canadians forget about them! ;) We just got hammered by a pretty bad storm pre-Leslie that killed a ton of sheep and left large numbers of homes in the north without power.

Any idea what winds and rains from ex-Leslie should be like tomorrow in the Reykjavk area? Also, are our current clouds from her bands? Got some cool looking twisty ropey-cloud action going on outside my window right now.
Sanba vs. Nadine.

My money is on Sanba.

It's a WPAC storm, afterall.

Dat's a no-brainer.

: )
Quoting StormHype:
YouTube video of insane driver crashing into tree while trying to pass stalled cars in a flash flood last night on Siesta Key. This has been on TWC this morning as well.
9/11/12 Siesta Flash Flood crash

link is bad.
Quoting LargoFl:
what they are NOT putting into this new data, is HOW much damage is going to occur, with 20 inches of rain and water up to the roof tops from flooding..20 inches of rain is more than 20 feet..of water on the ground..they need to tell people how dangerous the rainfall totals will be,storm surge and winds are only part of the devastating effects from any tropical system, no matter what the category of the storm is...people hear cat-1 or just a tropical storm and they ignore the warnings..........tell them..20 inches of rain is coming and the water will be up to your roof..THEN they will listen

second that.
Quoting jeffs713:
link is bad.


Great weather here lately, wouldn't you say?
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Well, despite Ike only being a Category 2 storm, I do remember the NHC emphasizing well ahead of time that it was pushing a much larger surge than a normal Category 2 storm. I don't know it people just didn't comprehend what the NHC was saying, or they just ignored the warnings. Of course, I watch this site a lot during hurricane season, so I was well aware of the fact.
Morning All....my quick 2¢ before work....you have to take into consideration the middle man of the media that tends to drive the publics attention. In the case of Issac, politicians and the broadcast media, downplayed the storm and directed people to "hunker down". A now much maligned term in these parts....JS BBL
694. VR46L
Quoting KarenRei:


Heh, as someone living in Iceland, we're where the storms go after you Canadians forget about them! ;) We just got hammered by a pretty bad storm pre-Leslie that killed thousands of sheep and left large numbers of homes in the north without power.

Any idea what winds and rains from ex-Leslie should be like tomorrow in the Reykjavík area? Also, are our current clouds from her bands? Got some cool looking twisty ropey-cloud action going on outside my window right now.


lol I get them after you ... check with local met station but ex leslie should be with you very shortly
wow. karen from Iceland. never thought i would read a post from a person that lives in Iceland on a tropical blog, thank you , i hope you stay safe. just curious, does your island ever have tornadoes?
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Sanba.

Ok. Repeat after me.

Sanba.

Now this name has category 5 hurricane/typhoon status written all over it.

One more time

Sanba.




What a beauty
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I see an EYE!
Well, I think I see one on the latest image.
Looks like CIMSS sees one, too.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2012 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 19:05:23 N Lon : 47:30:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9      4.3       5.1


That Raw T# is just that - raw, and subject to high degrees of variation. But it's also eye-popping. If it's right, Nadine is now a Category 2 Hurricane.

Again, that's the raw number. But the Adjusted T at 10:15am is 4.3, and that's already a Category 1 storm.

I'd be surprised if they upgrade to a hurricane at 11am based on these numbers; there's no rush. The CI is still just 3.9T, and that's a hair shy of a hurricane. But there's a very real chance that we'll have a 60kt tropical storm at 11am, and a Category 2 hurricane by 5pm.
Quoting indianrivguy:



What a beauty

Sure is.

And only looking better as time goes on...

bad

700. Murko
Got about 6" rain last night from Son of Isaac, here on Eleuthera, Bahamas. We're slap, bang in the exact middle of the blob right now.
Scene type for Nadine has switched to EYE.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2012 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 19:05:23 N Lon : 47:30:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.3 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -29.2C Cloud Region Temp : -57.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Raw T# now up to 5.1.

At least it's not headed into the Phillipines.
But Kadena will get a real hurting.
Quoting Chicklit:

bad


If the track moves just a tiny bit to the left, it will be even worse. There was Bolaven a few weeks ago, then Tembin. I can't believe the latest typhoons are all heading to the Korean Peninsula.
I am worried about this storm as I live in Seoul. The strength of this storm is expected to be very strong. Who knows, maybe it might be stronger than Bolaven.

By the way, the effects on the Seoul Metropolitan Area were not severe, so people here are saying they prepared for nothing. On the other hand, the southern provinces are suffering from the aftermath of two consecutive typhoons. It would be a nightmare for them if a third typhoon made landfall, especially since a 3-day holiday starts in about two weeks.

I think this'll be the strongest hurricane this year cat 1 says nhc? pffft
Quoting KarenRei:


Heh, as someone living in Iceland, we're where the storms go after you Canadians forget about them! ;) We just got hammered by a pretty bad storm pre-Leslie that killed a ton of sheep and left large numbers of homes in the north without power.

Any idea what winds and rains from ex-Leslie should be like tomorrow in the Reykjav�k area? Also, are our current clouds from her bands? Got some cool looking twisty ropey-cloud action going on outside my window right now.


They are still getting dvorak numbers on ex-Leslie. She's been steady at 25kts for wind speed, she should stay to the right of you so I'd say no higher than that. Your local forecast concurs.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL UPDATE
_________________________________

Tropical Storm Nadine

click for BIGGER pic...

Thats cool how'd you do that? A specific software mabye? I thinks it looks good

Does anybody have an instability graph?
Link WV GOM

Jeff713 ~

It's been beautiful in Tomball the last couple days. Have you had a chance to get out at all?? Although look at the next several days. Whoa. The local Mets weren't kidding when you said enjoy it while you can!!

Link
It is cool I have a blogging buddy that lives in my same town!!
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Oh you're just posting all that to be PC and get all the plus votes. Seen this story before. Nothing new.

The fact of the matter is there has not been greater than a category 1 storm to impact the CONUS all year, with the more intense storms (Michael the Major) staying way out to see.

That, my friend, is a fact.


Isaac had higher max IKE value than any other storm this year.

Isaac had higher HSI rating than either Leslie or Michael ever achieved.

heck, Isaac had higher IKE value than Andrew or Charlie, and much higher IKE values and HSI values than several category 2 and 3 landfalls from the 2004 through 2008 seasons.


Isaac's maximum storm surge was in the middle of the old "Category 4" range on the SS scale.

Isaac produced widespread storm surges in the middle of the old "Category 3" range on the SS scale.


I calculated that Isaac at landfall probably ranks as a 20 on the Hurricane Severity Index(unofficially).

Gustav U.S. landfall is a 20 on HSI, officially, as a 110mph maximum category 2 on SS scale.

Dennis(05) landfall ranks as an 18 on the HSI, officially. It was a 125mph, Cat 3 at the time.


Using Andrew's size parameters, and comparing to Michael at peak intensity, I determined that Michael got either 7 or 8 points for size at maximum intensity, and 11 points for intensity itself.

So I gave category 3 Michael an 18 or 19, unofficially, on the HSI.



In reality, the "strongest" or "most severe" storm to form so far this year was in fact Isaac, and the SS wind scale is the only scale I can think of that does not rank it so.

The old SS storm surge scale, which was never used as it was intended to be used, ranks Isaac as a category 4 hurricane.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2012 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 19:09:05 N Lon : 47:36:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 988.1mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.3 5.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -30.0C Cloud Region Temp : -57.2C

Scene Type : EYE

The data from CIMSS says that we've got Hurricane Nadine - and that she's got a readily discernible eye. And the raw T holds steady around 5 for the second straight reading, suggesting that Nadine may already be a Category 2 storm.

The only question is whether NHC will hold at 60kts, or take Nadine right there.
...NADINE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 12
Location: 19.1°N 47.6°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Quoting RTSplayer:


Isaac had higher max IKE value than any other storm this year.

Isaac had higher HSI rating than either Leslie or Michael ever achieved.

heck, Isaac had higher IKE value than Andrew or Charlie, and much higher IKE values and HSI values than several category 2 and 3 landfalls from the 2004 through 2008 seasons.


Isaac's maximum storm surge was in the middle of the old "Category 4" range on the SS scale.

Isaac produced widespread storm surges in the middle of the old "Category 3" range on the SS scale.


I calculated that Isaac at landfall probably ranks as a 20 on the Hurricane Severity Index(unofficially).

Gustav U.S. landfall is a 20 on HSI, officially, as a 110mph maximum category 2 on SS scale.

Dennis(05) landfall ranks as an 18 on the HSI, officially. It was a 125mph, Cat 3 at the time.


Using Andrew's size parameters, and comparing to Michael at peak intensity, I determined that Michael got either 7 or 8 points for size at maximum intensity, and 11 points for intensity itself.

So I gave category 3 Michael an 18 or 19, unofficially, on the HSI.



In reality, the "strongest" or "most severe" storm to form so far this year was in fact Isaac, and the SS wind scale is the only scale I can think of that does not rank it so.

You should submit this to the NHC, no?
epac development downstream it means more rain for the southwest
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
wow. karen from Iceland. never thought i would read a post from a person that lives in Iceland on a tropical blog, thank you , i hope you stay safe. just curious, does your island ever have tornadoes?


:) I haven't always lived in Iceland. I grew up in Houston, and my family still lives there, so even when I moved away elsewhere in the US, I kept up on following the tropics. But I completely fell in love with Iceland when here for a couple weeks as a tourist, to the point that I started learning the language, found a job, and moved. :) If I had to sum up Iceland in a brief sentence, it'd be "A stunningly beautiful artists'-colony island that exudes raw power."

Both tornadoes and lightning are very rare in Iceland, but they do happen. We pretty much never get the hot, humid air that you normally need to kick up tornadoes. I've never once felt any weather here that I would describe as "hot and humid". At best, "warm". I think relative humidity is high, but you don't notice because the weather is always cool (although seldom "cold" like winters in Canada, Alaska, parts of the northern great plains, etc).

Now, we do get some other things that I never saw before in the US. We get both polar stratospheric and noctilucent clouds, as well as tons of other weird cloud structures (some of the clouds out my window are forming these weird spindly tendrils, for example). Lots of formations happen here that suggest frequent and significant changes of the atmosphere in thin horizontal layers. Also in the winter, spring and fall we sometimes get a type of ice pellet precipitation that I never experienced in the US - they're pellets, not flakes, but they're still light and fluffy, not hard and dense. Lastly, weather here is famously changeable, esp. in the spring. I know people in the US like to joke, "If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes", but here it really can be like that regularly in certain times of year. It's still crazy to watch a single storm cycle through windspeeds from calm to 30m/s or so and precipitation between none, snow, rain, hail, and ice pellets, and the cloud cover between sun with rainbows and full clouds, with a change happening every 5 minutes or so, and the different parameters unconnected with each other, for a couple hours on end.

That said, summer this year was just unbelievably lovely. Tons of glacial melt, sadly (we're losing them fast), but clear skies and wonderful temperatures.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You should submit this to the NHC, no?


They already know about this.

HSI is the ranking system invented by Impact Weather. While not perfect, it's better than the SS wind scale alone.


HSI PDF paper from Impact Weather

Although one flaw with this paper is it did not lay out their specific definitions for how to determine the size parameters, so I used encyclopedias to figure that out and use as proxies when doing my "unofficial" rankings for Isaac, Leslie, and Michael. Michael was easiest because it was actually no larger than Andrew in size, and possibly one point smaller, which I could verify using data from Colorado state's site.

So I didn't just "make up" my numbers. I followed their rules and used close proxy storms to determine the size scores that I came up with.



Personally, I think the HSI needs to be enhanced by squaring the left side and dividing by 625 to renormalize, because it is the AREA of the hurricane that does damage, not the radius alone, and area is a function of radius squared.

Nevertheless, the HSI for most storm comparisons is more in line with IKE values than the SS wind scale alone, but it is not perfect, as there are some significant deviations.
718. 7544
are we on a bahamma blob watch for today nice looking blob there
This is from the ASCAT pass referenced by NHC
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE SHOWS A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. USING A BLEND OF
THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT.
ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHEAR OVER NADINE WITH
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. A BROAD TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM MAY BE ASSISTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...FROM
72 HOURS AND BEYOND NADINE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A BELT OF
STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE
LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 25-30 KT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM AND CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

CENTER FIXES SHOW A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...
AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. NADINE CONTINUES TO
HEAD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERLIES BEYOND 72 HOURS...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CURRENT NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND THE QUICKER 0600 UTC GFS SOLUTION.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1215 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS...WHICH SAMPLED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
REVEALED A LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 19.1N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 20.3N 49.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 22.1N 51.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 24.1N 52.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 26.3N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 30.0N 52.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 32.5N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 34.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/PASCH
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS A BLEND BETWEEN ASCAT DATA HOURS
AGO...AN AMSU-B PASS AT 1002 UTC...AND RECENT VISIBLE PICTURES.

THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH LARGE...DOES NOT HAVE ORGANIZED BANDING
FEATURES YET...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. BOTH GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE
IN THE SHEAR FAVORING ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION THROUGH 5 DAYS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND HEAVILY BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 16.7N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.1N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 18.2N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


So the NHC has dropped the CIMSS-ADT estimate from its forecast entirely, presumably because it's so far out of line with the (already old) SAB/TAFB estimates. But 50kt storms don't have eyes. I continue to think that Nadine will make the formal upgrade to hurricane at 5pm. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is exactly right about this storm. She's just gotten herself fully organized, and she's going to put on a show for us.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Jeff713 ~

It's been beautiful in Tomball the last couple days. Have you had a chance to get out at all?? Although look at the next several days. Whoa. The local Mets weren't kidding when you said enjoy it while you can!!

Link

My wife and I got out a bit Sunday (I actually BBQed), but sadly, my semester for nursing school just started, which means my life consists of work (full time M-F), school (sitting in front of a computer or reading), and sometimes sleep. :(
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Scene type for Nadine has switched to EYE.

6WiM0PY.jpg" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px; ">


I dont even see an eye...hmmm.
I guess itll clear out soon
I think the blog community here is heavily weighted toward the GULF and Florida (my observation). It isn't a big surprise since this is in English, primarily US weather, and the area gets hit so often.
4" of rain and millions in damages, would be a heavy summer shower in an expensive Miami neighborhood down here. So yes, we worry about low pressure systems developing that don't have hurricane in front of their names. 2004 and 2005 had Billions in damages and 4+ Tropical Storms with Cat 3+.
By the time they get to Canada, they have been around for a while, are moving fast, and you know they are coming. It is great to have bloggers on the ground there, sharing info.
If you had lows in the Gulf of St. Laurence spinning into Hurricanes in 24 hours, you would pay attention to them too.
That being said, it is wonderful to have Aussie, Asian?, Islander, Canadian, and Midwestern perspectives in the community.
728. txjac
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Jeff713 ~

It's been beautiful in Tomball the last couple days. Have you had a chance to get out at all?? Although look at the next several days. Whoa. The local Mets weren't kidding when you said enjoy it while you can!!

Link


Arent you looking forward to some rain? I can hardly wait ...ove the rain and Houston can pretty much always use it!
Going to need to keep an eye on the western caribbean by the end of the month, this about the 4th run in a row the GFS shows something festering down there.

Image of the night sky above Paranal on 21 July 2007, taken by ESO astronomer Yuri Beletsky. A wide band of stars and dust clouds, spanning more than 100 degrees on the sky, is seen. This is the Milky Way, the Galaxy we belong to. At the centre of the image, two bright objects are visible. The brightest is the planet Jupiter, while the other is the star Antares. Three of the four 8.2-m telescopes forming ESO's VLT are seen, with a laser beaming out from Yepun, Unit Telescope number 4. The laser points directly at the Galactic Centre. Also visible are three of the 1.8-m Auxiliary Telescopes used for interferometry. They show small light beams which are diodes located on the domes. The exposure time is 5 minutes and because the tracking was made on the stars, the telescopes are slightly blurred.
Date 2007