WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Summer 2012: 3rd hottest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:48 PM GMT on September 10, 2012

The summer of 2012 was the 3rd hottest summer in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. June 2012 ranked as the 14th warmest June on record, August was the 16th warmest August on record, and July was the warmest month of any month in U.S. history, bringing the average summer temperature of the contiguous U.S. just 0.2°F shy of the hottest summer on record--the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Second place is held by 2011, which was just 0.1°F cooler than the summer of 1936. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - August. Temperatures this year in the U.S. have been so far above the previous record--a remarkable 1°F for the year-to-date period--that even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. Reliable weather records for the U.S. go back to 1895. The most recent 12-month period of September 2011 - August 2012 was the 4th warmest 12-month period in U.S. history, exceeded only by the 12-month periods ending in July, June, and May of this year.


Figure 1. The summer of 2012 was the warmest on record for Wyoming and Colorado, and ranked in the top-ten warmest on record for 22 other states. For the Contiguous U.S., it was the 3rd warmest summer since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through August, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from September through December, the remaining five months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. The January-August 2012 contiguous U.S. average temperature was 58.7°F, 4.0°F above average. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - August period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 47% during the year-to-date January - August period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 85% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eight months of 2012, and 75% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 22%, which was the 11th greatest since 1910.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - August shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eight months of the year on record, with 47% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting weatherh98:


why isnt it a depression
Doesn't have sustained convection.
New Zealand~ Parts of the Waikato received a battering of hail during a violent storm which hit the region last night. As well as thunder and lightning and torrential downpours a hail storm struck in Hamilton and around the Waikato. The hail storm was most likely a one-off, say Metservice forecasters, with more settled weather likely today. Forecaster Hordur Thordarson told the Waikato Times that last night's impressive event was the result of warm, moist air at lower levels coming together with colder air higher up, creating an updraft and "when these things come together, the stage is set for some great convective thunderstorms and hail." As the warm air near the surface rose, colder air was drawn down, creating the sudden drop in temperature residents felt as the hailstorm hit. The hail was reportedly strong enough to crack a car windscreen at one Waikato house while another resident said it set a car alarm off. Ridge Mortensen in St Andrews said the hail sounded like "golf balls hitting the roof" while Paige Tarrant in Nawton described how her backyard was covered with hail.
Tomorrow will be 9/11/12.The weather we'll have tomorrow will remind of the weather that was across the northeast on that day.Bright blue skies and sunny with feel good temperatures.
Quoting Thing342:
Leslie is a Hurricane once more, per ATCF.

AL, 12, 2012091100, , BEST, 0, 411N, 585W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 280, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LESLIE, D,

Is there some reason the NHC site still calls her as a tropical storm?
Quoting weatherh98:


why isnt it a depression

Because it's an invest.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Tomorrow will be 9/11/12.The weather we'll have tomorrow will remind of the weather that was across the northeast on that day.Bright blue skies and sunny with feel good temperatures.


How did you learn what was happening on that horrible day?
windscat caught 91L
We have now Tropical Storm Sanba at WPAC upgraded by JMA.

TS 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 11 September 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°25'(9.4°)
E134°00'(134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)


Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E133°55'(133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)


Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°50'(14.8°)
E133°00'(133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)


Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°)
E130°55'(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

510. SLU
Quoting weatherh98:


why isnt it a depression


It will be soon if that nice ball of storms near the center persists

10/2345 UTC 15.6N 40.2W T1.0/1.5 91L -- Atlantic
Quoting washingtonian115:
Tomorrow will be 9/11/12.The weather we'll have tomorrow will remind of the weather that was across the northeast on that day.Bright blue skies and sunny with feel good temperatures.


I think there was a hurricane just of the east coast that day too, closer than Leslie.
Updated...No changes...

Quoting washingtonian115:
Doesn't have sustained convection.


ahhhh i gitchya
Quoting Skyepony:


I think there was a hurricane just of the east coast that day too, closer than Leslie.


Erin?

Guess Leslie is now a hurricane, from what I've been reading.
Quoting Skyepony:


I think there was a hurricane just of the east coast that day too, closer than Leslie.


Yes there was. Nice ground swell here in Charleston and the Kiddies were all in school and had the waves all to my self for the morning session.

Only when I got in the truck afterwards then did I hear what happened.
on the island of Dominica in the Caribbean.. boy has it been hot and dry!!!

june and july record dry months with less than 3 inches of rain. early august was more like normal with ernesto td7 and issac giving us 13inches. but since issac we have had absolutely no rain!!! i mean 0 rain!! this is crazy! no tropical waves nuttin... can anyone give me idea as to wen we will get some drought relief?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From West Palm Beach...When I see highs in the 70's, I'll know that Fall is here...



Yep, the 10-day forecast for Orlando shows highs mid/upper 80s and lows upper 60s/lower 70s toward the end. The temperatures will have to come down a bit further for me to consider it fall. Still, an improvement.
518. Tygor
I'm really looking forward to putting the 100 degree temps behind us for good in South Central Texas. Now we just need a little rain :)
Quoting sar2401:

Is there some reason the NHC site still calls her as a tropical storm?

Because the new advisory hasn't came in yet.
Quoting sar2401:

Is there some reason the NHC site still calls her as a tropical storm?

The ATCF is a computer program. The NHC will upgrade if they deem it necessary.
Quoting Tygor:
I'm really looking forward to putting the 100 degree temps behind us for good in South Central Texas. Now we just need a little rain :)
Me too but we need alot of rain over an extended period of time. Hearing El nino should start in Sept? Lakes are very low so bring on a change in the weather patterns. 52 this morning and 95 this afternoon so at least it wasnt 100. Almost 60 days since it rained here, after surviving last Summer that is just cruel.
Quoting java162:
on the island of Dominica in the Caribbean.. boy has it been hot and dry!!!

june and july record dry months with less than 3 inches of rain. early august was more like normal with ernesto td7 and issac giving us 13inches. but since issac we have had absolutely no rain!!! i mean 0 rain!! this is crazy! no tropical waves nuttin... can anyone give me idea as to wen we will get some drought relief?


Yes, that's not funny. Maybe we will need to wait until october to get some decent rain. With all the waves predicted to develop and track north, september could be exceptionally dry. Unfortunately.
Lesser Antilles Radar

Quite. A few shower to the north though, but barely affecting the islands...
Quoting Tygor:
I'm really looking forward to putting the 100 degree temps behind us for good in South Central Texas. Now we just need a little rain :)


Nice weather the last few days. Just got done walking a mile and getting ready to walk another one.
According to latest images.
91L should have enough convection overhead to be upgraded... Renumber still possible within the next 15 minutes, if not This will be TD 14 by the morning.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
According to latest images.
91L should have enough convection overhead to be upgraded... Renumber still possible within the next 15 minutes, if not This will be TD 14 by the morning.
I would say it looks better that when td 5 was declare.
Night shift on yet?

Reporting in for the night shift


HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 48.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 48.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 47.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 37.7N 48.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 42.0N 46.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 47.2N 41.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 110SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 52.2N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 160SE 100SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Quoting Grothar:
Night shift on yet?


I'm here, just reading back on what has been said to catch up on what I need to keep watch on.

Looks like Leslie has gone ex-tropical. Michael still moving west.


TD17 is huge....
Advisory needs to come out soon. Nobody posting and the Braves are getting creamed.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Reporting in for the night shift




Well, be nice tonight and try not to insult anybody.
races ne now towards the flemish cap

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012

...LESLIE PROGRESSING RAPIDLY TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BRUSHING EXTREME EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 57.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Puerto Rico Is very well prepared for Hurricanes, Even a 180 mph Category 5 Hurricane would do nothing to Concrete homes, except rip the paint off, like sand blasted



Really? I suggest you first do some research into areas hit by the eye wall of a category 5 hurricane. While it's true that concrete homes will reduce the amount of devastation significantly, and would certainly reduce property damage and loss of life, even if all homes were concrete you would be surprised home much damage would occur.

There were buildings in Homestead built for military grade resistance, that is, practically an "armored" building, that didn't do so well in Andrew. If we all built dome shaped homes with 6 inch thick bullet proof glass for windows. Then yes, damage to homes would be drastically reduced. However, those homes would also do pretty good in a nuclear war. Is it practical to build that way and affordable? Not exactly. Even then, I've heard of many claims of buildings supposedly being built to withstand 200 mph winds that succumb to category 3 winds. Even if a building was tested for wind, in a actual storm there are a many amount of forces going on, which is why some weaker structures may go untouched while a sturdy home down the road is flattened. Or in a community of mobile homes, half are wiped clean, others are damaged, and somehow a few manage to survive, even though all have the same structural design.

Furthermore, we might as well just turn the U.S. into a militarized state while we're at it where every building is bunker. Because that's the only way to make a "hurricane proof" area. Even then, flying debris would still do way more damage to these bunkers in a 180 mph hurricane then you would think. Also, lets not forget the potential surge that would put these buildings underwater thus defeating their purpose anyway.

There is no coastal region built for a category 5 hurricane. I don't think you are aware of how wind physics work and how much energy is in 180 mph winds. You're going to have damage, and it's going to be, really, really bad. In fact you might as well just call in a U.S. air force air strikes, because the results are about the same. Like i said, that's not even mentioning the other impacts involved, like surge, waves, and rainfall. In hurricanes, strong wind is often going hand in hand with those other things, and a category 5 eye wall will bring an extreme amount of any of those impacts.


Another thing to consider in the mass of water mixed into that strong wind, and how the energy of heavy rain mixed with wind also causes. Rainfall rates are often very extreme in high end hurricane eye-walls. It's basically like hundreds of Olympic swimming polls being hurled into your local area with wind behind them.


I'm not trying to be antagonistic. But I want you to understand that what you're saying is fantasy. There is no way to make homes hurricane proof. Certainly making homes built with better engineering and more craftmanship as well as as much concrete structures as practical will reduce damage significantly, but it will not make them proof. PR would not fare well in a 180 mph hurricane. There would be devastation, pray and home you never see one hit your area instead of boasting how it would do well, because it wouldn't.
Quoting Grothar:
Night shift on yet?


General Wxchaser97 reporting for the night shift. Leslie looks to be going extra-tropical and Michael is weakening.
...LESLIE PROGRESSING RAPIDLY TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND... ...OUTER RAINBANDS BRUSHING EXTREME EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 42.7°N 57.5°W
Moving: NNE at 40 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
Quoting wxchaser97:

General Wxchaser97 reporting for the night shift. Leslie looks to be going extra-tropical and Michael is weakening.


Thanks for the update. Keep the troops in line.
This is just sad. Every time I glance at this blog again, there is like only 8 pages of comments. I guess everyone feels like CV season is over as far as U.S. strikes. What I'm watching for is a little sneaker to come out of the Carribean a little later, catch everyone by suprise, and be stronger than these piddly Cat. 1's and Trop storms that can't get their eyewall together.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Really? I suggest you first do some research into areas hit by the eye wall of a category 5 hurricane. While it's true that concrete homes will reduce the amount of devastation significantly, and would certainly reduce property damage and loss of life, even if all homes were concrete you would be surprised home much damage would occur.

There were buildings in Homestead built for military grade resistance, that is, practically an "armored" building, that didn't do so well in Andrew. If we all built dome shaped homes with 6 inch thick bullet proof glass for windows. Then yes, damage to homes would be drastically reduced. However, those homes would also do pretty good in a nuclear war. Is it practical to build that way and affordable? Not exactly. Even then, I've heard of many claims of buildings supposedly being built to withstand 200 mph winds that succumb to category 3 winds. Even if a building was tested for wind, in a actual storm there are a many amount of forces going on, which is why some weaker structures may go untouched while a sturdy home down the road is flattened. Or in a community of mobile homes, half are wiped clean, others are damaged, and somehow a few manage to survive, even though all have the same structural design.

Furthermore, we might as well just turn the U.S. into a militarized state while we're at it where every building is bunker. Because that's the only way to make a "hurricane proof" area. Even then, flying debris would still do way more damage to these bunkers in a 180 mph hurricane then you would think. Also, lets not forget the potential surge that would put these buildings underwater thus defeating their purpose anyway.

There is no coastal region built for a category 5 hurricane. I don't think you are aware of how wind physics work and how much energy is in 180 mph winds. You're going to have damage, and it's going to be, really, really bad. In fact you might as well just call in a U.S. air force air strikes, because the results are about the same. Like i said, that's not even mentioning the other impacts involved, like surge, waves, and rainfall. In hurricanes, strong wind is often going hand in hand with those other things, and a category 5 eye wall will bring an extreme amount of any of those impacts.


Another thing to consider in the mass of water mixed into that strong wind, and how the energy of heavy rain mixed with wind also causes. Rainfall rates are often very extreme in high end hurricane eye-walls. It's basically like hundreds of Olympic swimming polls being hurled into your local area with wind behind them.


I'm not trying to be antagonistic. But I want you to understand that what you're saying is fantasy. There is no way to make homes hurricane proof. Certainly making homes built with better engineering and more craftmanship as well as as much concrete structures as practical will reduce damage significantly, but it will not make them proof. PR would not fare well in a 180 mph hurricane. There would be devastation, pray and home you never see one hit your area instead of boasting how it would do well, because it wouldn't.

Well said. No one is ready for a Cat 5. That is not even to mention the damage to trees, signs, landmarks, etc. which would make the area unrecognizable.
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks for the update. Keep the troops in line.

You're welcome commander, troops are ready for inspection.
Anyway we will have to wait until the morning for TD14.
542. MTWX
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012

...LESLIE PROGRESSING RAPIDLY TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BRUSHING EXTREME EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 57.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


Wow!! She is cooking right along!
Quoting wxchaser97:
...LESLIE PROGRESSING RAPIDLY TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND... ...OUTER RAINBANDS BRUSHING EXTREME EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 42.7°N 57.5°W
Moving: NNE at 40 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph


Well, when you add the forward speed of 40 mph to the wind speed of 70 mph, you get quite a powerful storm.

There shouldn't be much flooding if it's moving that quickly.
Quoting AussieStorm:

The ATCF is a computer program. The NHC will upgrade if they deem it necessary.

That was my impression as well. It seems like some folks rush to post ATCF numbers when the NHC may look a them and go "Eh". :) The 11 pm update certainly does not support upgrading Leslie to a hurricane, and I can't imagine why the NHC would want to upgrade her for the few hours she has left before becoming extratropical, assuming she's not already. There does seem to a "firstist with mostest" mentality among some bloggers.
This one has gathered in an impressive manner all day..
Click pic for loop. Presenting TROPICAL STORM SANBA...


Quoting yonzabam:


Well, when you add the forward speed of 40 mph to the wind speed of 70 mph, you get quite a powerful storm.

There shouldn't be much flooding if it's moving that quickly.

Its going faster every advisory, you can tell its going post-tropical.
Quoting sar2401:

That was my impression as well. It seems like some folks rush to post ATCF numbers when the NHC may look a them and go "Eh". :) The 11 pm update certainly does not support upgrading Leslie to a hurricane, and I can't imagine why the NHC would want to upgrade her for the few hours she has left before becoming extratropical, assuming she's not already. There does seem to a "firstist with mostest" mentality among some bloggers.

Ehm. *cody*
lol.
Good night everyone.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Do hurricane rains stunt plant growth?

I'm wondering about Isaac, because we got about 17 inches o rain where I live, but the grass did not grow much afterwards. We don't have any standing puddles, so water standing around flooding or choking the grass isn't/wasn't an issue.

The grass has started growing again after the front came through two days ago.

Since the isotopic ratios of hydrogen and oxygen are altered in hurricane rains, could this effect the growth rate of grass?


What happens when humans drink pure isotopic water of different variations?

Like every combination of atomic isotopes?

2 protium 1 oxygen
1 protium, 1 deuterium, 1 oxygen
2 deuterium, 1 oxygen

And repeat for each oxygen isotope.


Have studies been done to see how high concentrations of a single isotope effects plant and animals (or humans)?!


Maybe it's all just a coincidence, or maybe the hurricane really did stunt the grass growth.



Can't say for humans, but grass does not care what variety of water it receives. The proportion of isotopes would not matter. There are too many variables to be sure why your grass stopped growing- sunlight, temperature, type of soil (clay soil to hold water, or sandy to allow it to drain) . Was there any storm surge water? Salt that was washed out of the soil after the rain from the front might be to blame.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Really? I suggest you first do some research into areas hit by the eye wall of a category 5 hurricane. While it's true that concrete homes will reduce the amount of devastation significantly, and would certainly reduce property damage and loss of life, even if all homes were concrete you would be surprised home much damage would occur.

There were buildings in Homestead built for military grade resistance, that is, practically an "armored" building, that didn't do so well in Andrew. If we all built dome shaped homes with 6 inch thick bullet proof glass for windows. Then yes, damage to homes would be drastically reduced. However, those homes would also do pretty good in a nuclear war. Is it practical to build that way and affordable? Not exactly. Even then, I've heard of many claims of buildings supposedly being built to withstand 200 mph winds that succumb to category 3 winds. Even if a building was tested for wind, in a actual storm there are a many amount of forces going on, which is why some weaker structures may go untouched while a sturdy home down the road is flattened. Or in a community of mobile homes, half are wiped clean, others are damaged, and somehow a few manage to survive, even though all have the same structural design.

Furthermore, we might as well just turn the U.S. into a militarized state while we're at it where every building is bunker. Because that's the only way to make a "hurricane proof" area. Even then, flying debris would still do way more damage to these bunkers in a 180 mph hurricane then you would think. Also, lets not forget the potential surge that would put these buildings underwater thus defeating their purpose anyway.

There is no coastal region built for a category 5 hurricane. I don't think you are aware of how wind physics work and how much energy is in 180 mph winds. You're going to have damage, and it's going to be, really, really bad. In fact you might as well just call in a U.S. air force air strikes, because the results are about the same. Like i said, that's not even mentioning the other impacts involved, like surge, waves, and rainfall. In hurricanes, strong wind is often going hand in hand with those other things, and a category 5 eye wall will bring an extreme amount of any of those impacts.


Another thing to consider in the mass of water mixed into that strong wind, and how the energy of heavy rain mixed with wind also causes. Rainfall rates are often very extreme in high end hurricane eye-walls. It's basically like hundreds of Olympic swimming polls being hurled into your local area with wind behind them.


I'm not trying to be antagonistic. But I want you to understand that what you're saying is fantasy. There is no way to make homes hurricane proof. Certainly making homes built with better engineering and more craftmanship as well as as much concrete structures as practical will reduce damage significantly, but it will not make them proof.


buddy, before joining the weather services, I worked with numerous engineers and architects on several construction firms not only in Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands,with but also in numerous states, and I know a thing or two about construction.
I also worked with relief agencies after hurricanes and other disaters in USA and central america

The codes here on the islands very strict.

I'm not saying the effects on a hurricane are not going to be devasting, but I was clarifing a qustion someone posted about concrete homes here in Puerto Rico.

You may want to read up a little homes in Puerto Rico,
it's very interesting.

Reinforced Concrete structures are known for their extreme strength, stiffness and durability. Homes can be designed to sustain hurricane winds, tornadoes, earthques, termites and will not suffer structural damage in case of flood....

Also, reinforced concrete homes have a natural force protection qualities and are mostly bullet proof.

more info

When hurricanes howl, the greatest danger to people and property is flying debris. Carried at such intense velocity, a 2 x 4 piece of lumber will become a missile that can slice through walls. Researchers for the Wind Engineering Research Center at Texas Tech University say that concrete walls are strong enough to withstand flying debris from hurricanes and tornadoes. According to their findings, homes made of concrete are much more storm-resistant than houses constructed of wood and steel.
THE RESEARCH STUDY
To duplicate hurricane-like conditions in the laboratory, researchers shot wall sections with 15-pound 2 x 4 lumber "missiles" at up to 100 mph, simulating debris carried in a 250 mph wind. These conditions cover all but the most severe tornadoes. Hurricane wind speeds are less than the speeds modeled here. Missile tests designed to demonstrate damage from hurricanes use a 9-pound missile traveling about 34 mph.

Researchers tested 4 x 4-foot sections of concrete block, several types of insulating concrete forms, steel studs, and wood studs to rate performance in high winds. The sections were finished as they would be in a completed home: drywall, fiberglass insulation, plywood sheathing, and exterior finishes of vinyl siding, clay brick, or stucco.

All the concrete wall systems survived the tests with no structural damage. Lightweight steel and wood stud walls, however, offered little or no resistance to the "missile." The 2 x 4 ripped through them.

Reinforced concrete homes have proven their wind-resistance in the field during tornadoes and hurricanes. In Urbana, Illinois, a recently constructed insulating concrete form home withstood a 1996 tornado with minimal damage. In the Liberty City area of Miami, several concrete form homes survived Hurricane Andrew in 1992. In both cases, neighboring homes were destroyed.

Monolithic Domes, which are made of concrete and rebar, have proved especially strong. The sturdy concrete construction combined with the dome shape make these innovative homes nearly impervious to tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes.



This House's roof is made of a 6 inch cement slab. Most homes in Puerto rico are made the same way

Quoting wxchaser97:

Its going faster every advisory, you can tell its going post-tropical.

Leslie's funeral will take place tomorrow. As well as Michael.

May Nadine bless us with Beauty, and no destruction...
(As Forecasted she is forecasted to make a run at Major Hurricane status, and turn out to sea)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Ehm. *cody*
lol.
Good night everyone.

Good night HD07, I wonder what time we will see TD14?
92L may not be far off



Is it just me or is Michael heading N or NE now?



or is his convection being decapitated by Leslie's outflow?
Cloudsat of the tail of 91L..

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Leslie's funeral will take place tomorrow. As well as Michael.

May Nadine bless us with Beauty, and no destruction...
(As Forecasted she is forecasted to make a run at Major Hurricane status, and turn out to sea)

They were a lovely couple but were killed by the same trough. Hope their daughter Nadine will take their place in life as a healthy Tropical cyclone.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is it just me or is Michael heading N or NE now?



or is his convection being decapitated by Leslie's outflow?

He is forecasted to make a turn to the NE so its possible.
Quoting PRweathercenter:


buddy, before joining the weather services, I worked with numerous engineers and architects on several construction firms not only in Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands,with but also in numerous states, and I know a thing or two about construction.
I also worked with relief agencies after hurricanes and other disaters in USA and central america

The codes here on the islands very strict.

I'm not saying the effects on a hurricane are not going to be devasting, but I was clarifing a qustion someone posted about concrete homes here in Puerto Rico.

You may want to read up a little homes in Puerto Rico,
it's very interesting.

Reinforced Concrete structures are known for their extreme strength, stiffness and durability. Homes can be designed to sustain hurricane winds, tornadoes, earthques, termites and will not suffer structural damage in case of flood....

Also, reinforced concrete homes have a natural force protection qualities and are mostly bullet proof.

more info

When hurricanes howl, the greatest danger to people and property is flying debris. Carried at such intense velocity, a 2 x 4 piece of lumber will become a missile that can slice through walls. Researchers for the Wind Engineering Research Center at Texas Tech University say that concrete walls are strong enough to withstand flying debris from hurricanes and tornadoes. According to their findings, homes made of concrete are much more storm-resistant than houses constructed of wood and steel.
THE RESEARCH STUDY
To duplicate hurricane-like conditions in the laboratory, researchers shot wall sections with 15-pound 2 x 4 lumber "missiles" at up to 100 mph, simulating debris carried in a 250 mph wind. These conditions cover all but the most severe tornadoes. Hurricane wind speeds are less than the speeds modeled here. Missile tests designed to demonstrate damage from hurricanes use a 9-pound missile traveling about 34 mph.

Researchers tested 4 x 4-foot sections of concrete block, several types of insulating concrete forms, steel studs, and wood studs to rate performance in high winds. The sections were finished as they would be in a completed home: drywall, fiberglass insulation, plywood sheathing, and exterior finishes of vinyl siding, clay brick, or stucco.

All the concrete wall systems survived the tests with no structural damage. Lightweight steel and wood stud walls, however, offered little or no resistance to the "missile." The 2 x 4 ripped through them.

Reinforced concrete homes have proven their wind-resistance in the field during tornadoes and hurricanes. In Urbana, Illinois, a recently constructed insulating concrete form home withstood a 1996 tornado with minimal damage. In the Liberty City area of Miami, several concrete form homes survived Hurricane Andrew in 1992. In both cases, neighboring homes were destroyed.

Monolithic Domes, which are made of concrete and rebar, have proved especially strong. The sturdy concrete construction combined with the dome shape make these innovative homes nearly impervious to tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes.



This House's roof is made of a 6 inch cement slab. Most homes in Puerto rico are made the same way



The point is these homes are the safest and can with stand winds in excess of 180 mph, however we all know that trees won't survive or wooden homes will not survive those wind speeds either.

Quoting yonzabam:


Well, when you add the forward speed of 40 mph to the wind speed of 70 mph, you get quite a powerful storm.

There shouldn't be much flooding if it's moving that quickly.

Luckily, it appears that Leslie will make landfall on the Avalon Peninsula. This area has a long history of being hit by tropical storms, and fast movers tend to drop only a few inches of rain, so flooding is not a major problem. As long as the high winds don't propagate too far west, Newfoundland should feel about the same effects as a typical winter low, minus the snow.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is it just me or is Michael heading N or NE now?



or is his convection being decapitated by Leslie's outflow?


Looking at the big pic Michael seems to be buzzsawing off some of Leslie's outflow to be left behind. It's playing into the formation of an ULL to the west of 91L..if 91L has a hard time wrapping it's tail in like Isaac, that ULL could bring it farther west.
During hurricane Ivan in '04 ( anniversary tomorrow for us here in Cayman LOL) homes and structures got a good Category 4 test.
Well built concrete homes on the exposed coast south-side did well in the wind, but with a 9 to 12 foot storm surge hitting them with 40 foot waves...not so much.
Wind overall was not a major problem at this category level, but I wouldn't want to have to go thru the test of a 5 . I have had friends since then build homes to a solid rating on high ground ( as little of that is available) and with 20 + feet above sea level. The optimum choices since have proved to be 1: Be at a high elevation above sea level as is feasibly possible 2: Be inland and off the exposed coast 3: All construction here is concrete, add a standing metal seam roof and impact glass with as high a rating as possible. Engineered roof design and profile for maximum wind protection helps.
Quoting MTWX:


Wow!! She is cooking right along!

She is flying and turning extra-tropical, hopefully keeping impacts to New Foundland at a minimum.
Quoting superpete:
During hurricane Ivan in '04 ( anniversary tomorrow for us here in Cayman LOL) homes and structures got a good Category 4 test.
Well built concrete homes on the exposed coast south-side did well in the wind, but with a 9 to 12 foot storm surge hitting them with 40 foot waves...not so much.
Wind overall was not a major problem at this category level, but I wouldn't want to have to go thru the test of a 5 . I have had friends since then build homes to a solid rating on high ground ( as little of that is available) and with 20 + feet above sea level. The optimum choices since have proved to be 1: Be at a high elevation above sea level as is feasibly possible 2: Be inland and off the exposed coast 3: All construction here is concrete, add a standing metal seam roof and impact glass with as high a rating as possible. Engineered roof design and profile for maximum wind protection helps.
very well said
Quoting PRweathercenter:


The point is these homes are the safest and can with stand winds in excess of 180 mph, however we all know that trees won't survive or wooden homes will not survive those wind speeds either.

Very true. Thanks for the information. This afternoon I was telling some people here how convenience for them to follow our codes of construction in Puerto Rico. Most houses in the US east coast and Florida aren't prepared to stand hurricanes. You could tell just by looking at them , you don't need to be an expert.
Quoting PRweathercenter:


The point is these homes are the safest and can with stand winds in excess of 180 mph, however we all know that trees won't survive or wooden homes will not survive those wind speeds either.


PR, how well does that type of construction do in earthquakes? I know Mexico City had a large number of concrete buildings, with concrete slab floors and roofs, that suffered pancake collapses. I realize the the quality of the concrete and how well the connections are made has some effect, but the homes in your two pictures have large garage openings, interrupting the shear walls that give concrete structures much of their resistance to lateral shaking.
SANTA ANA, Calif. (AP) - A strong rotten egg smell had Southern Californians plugging their noses and crying foul Monday as air quality investigators scrambled to determine if the sulfurous scent was coming from the Salton Sea.

Investigators from the South Coast Air Quality Management District spread investigators all over the region in an attempt to track the stench after being flooded with 200 complaints since midnight from across much of the district's 10,000 square miles, said Barry Wallerstein, executive for the agency.

Wallerstein said "several factors" indicate the odor could be coming from the Salton Sea, a 376-square-mile saltwater lake about 150 miles southeast of Los Angeles, but there is no definitive evidence yet of this or any other cause.

"The odor was extremely intense," said Janis Dawson of the Salton Sea Authority. "We actually thought that somebody had an accident, a broken sewage main, that's how strong it was."

The dying sea, a major resting stop for migrating birds on the Pacific Flyway, has been plagued by increasing salinity. Created in 1905 when floodwaters broke through a Colorado River irrigation canal, it's expected to shrink significantly by 2018 and become even saltier.

The sea had a fish die-off within the past week and that, combined with strong storms in the area late Sunday, could have churned up the water and unleashed bacteria from the sea floor that caused the stench, said Dawson.

The massive thunderstorm complex moved from Mexico over the area Sunday night, with wind gusts up to 60 mph and widespread dust storms.
big water vapour

looks for warming trend in east 4 days then another cool down after that for 3 maybe 4 days

i am interested to see how the fall severe sets up could be strong across boundry lines of seasonal change

summer ends in 11 days


Quoting Skyepony:
SANTA ANA, Calif. (AP) - A strong rotten egg smell had Southern Californians plugging their noses and crying foul Monday as air quality investigators scrambled to determine if the sulfurous scent was coming from the Salton Sea.

Investigators from the South Coast Air Quality Management District spread investigators all over the region in an attempt to track the stench after being flooded with 200 complaints since midnight from across much of the district's 10,000 square miles, said Barry Wallerstein, executive for the agency.

Wallerstein said "several factors" indicate the odor could be coming from the Salton Sea, a 376-square-mile saltwater lake about 150 miles southeast of Los Angeles, but there is no definitive evidence yet of this or any other cause.

"The odor was extremely intense," said Janis Dawson of the Salton Sea Authority. "We actually thought that somebody had an accident, a broken sewage main, that's how strong it was."

The dying sea, a major resting stop for migrating birds on the Pacific Flyway, has been plagued by increasing salinity. Created in 1905 when floodwaters broke through a Colorado River irrigation canal, it's expected to shrink significantly by 2018 and become even saltier.

The sea had a fish die-off within the past week and that, combined with strong storms in the area late Sunday, could have churned up the water and unleashed bacteria from the sea floor that caused the stench, said Dawson.

The massive thunderstorm complex moved from Mexico over the area Sunday night, with wind gusts up to 60 mph and widespread dust storms.

Skye, have you ever been to the Salton Sea? It's disgusting even when it doesn't stink too badly. :) If it was't for the Southern Pacific Railroad working around the clock for months in 1905 to plug that leak, the entire Imperial Valeey would be an inland sea. It looks like there's an offshoe flow developing in southen California, which I'm sure is what's bring the smell to Santa Ana. Imagine living by that stinking mud puddle. Yuck!
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Very true. Thanks for the information. This afternoon I was telling some people here how convenience for them to follow our codes of construction in Puerto Rico. Most houses in the US east coast and Florida aren't prepared to stand hurricanes. You could tell just by looking at them , you don't need to be an expert.


Except for the people who live in the slums, that is. Building codes are a little different there.
Quoting sar2401:

PR, how well does that type of construction do in earthquakes? I know Mexico City had a large number of concrete buildings, with concrete slab floors and roofs, that suffered pancake collapses. I realize the the quality of the concrete and how well the connections are made has some effect, but the homes in your two pictures have large garage openings, interrupting the shear walls that give concrete structures much of their resistance to lateral shaking.
Im just going to drop the subject with concrete homes, i didn't know it was so controversial.

I apologize if i offended anyone with my comment early, i was simply clarfing the effects of wind( only wind) against a concrete home.


You guys have great night!!!

Stay safe

;-)
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Very true. Thanks for the information. This afternoon I was telling some people here how convenience for them to follow our codes of construction in Puerto Rico. Most houses in the US east coast and Florida aren't prepared to stand hurricanes. You could tell just by looking at them , you don't need to be an expert.
No problem!! Any time, im Jay by the way, some times my coworker David is here too.
Quoting thewindman:
Only Hurricane threat after mid September is to the Gulf Coast states. As we enter into fall, troughs get stronger and stronger and anything coming from Cape Verde tends to be a nice Fish event. Too bad for Newfoundland they will get hit but all models indicate through September all fish
That's what we hope for on the east coast. That isn't always what happens, however. October of 1954: Category 4 Hurricane Hazel makes landfall along the NC/SC border with sustained winds of 145 mph. Sooo, yeah. It can happen. Hazel was the strongest hurricane ever to make landfall in our state (NC) and still holds that title.
Good night everyone, I'll be doing a blog in around 6 hours about Leslie, Michael, and 91L.
Quoting sar2401:


Except for the people who live in the slums, that is. Building codes are a little different there.
Yes , like anywhere else in the world ,slums are slums. By the way we are not trying to hurt your feeling or compete in any way just giving you people a suggestion , is up to you to listen or don't. Have a great night !!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
92L may not be far off




Wow!! Take a look at what is coming off Africa. It may not be too long till we have 92L and this is a lot further south than 91L. Something that we should definitely keep an eye on and lets be realistic...not everything can recurve out into the graveyard of the North Atlantic like there is no tomorrow. Sooner or later one big one will sneak its way through.


big picture
northern hemispheric ir anim
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN
11:00 AM PhST September 11 2012
==============================

The Active Low Pressure Area east of Mindanao has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "KAREN"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Karen located at 9.0°N 133.4°E or 700 km east of Tandag, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
===========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "KAREN" is still too far to affect any part of the country.

"Karen" is likely to intensify within the next 6 to 12 hours.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 pm today.

Quoting lobdelse81:
Sooner or later one big one will sneak its way through.
Are fish storms and intense hurricanes mutually exclusive? :)
Latest GFS looks like we may have another antilles/carib cruiser departing Africa 9/15 arriving antilles 9/23.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Latest GFS looks like we may have another antilles/carib cruiser departing Africa 9/15 arriving antilles 9/23.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Latest GFS looks like we may have another antilles/carib cruiser departing Africa 9/15 arriving antilles 9/23.
can you post the link please.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Latest GFS looks like we may have another antilles/carib cruiser departing Africa 9/15 arriving antilles 9/23.


Huge trough says hello:

Quoting allancalderini:
can you post the link please.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Huge trough says hello:

Should be interesting..very strong high also.
Wow, dead blog.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM SANBA (T1216)
15:00 PM JST September 11 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanba (1002 hPa) located at 10.6N 134.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 13.5N 134.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.7N 132.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.4N 130.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
the gfs has a boc storm also before the carib. heads to the northern gulf coast. even tho thats lala ummmm what ever time frame.

if the trough really gets to that strength anything coming out of africa will head towards the conus
Quoting sar2401:

Skye, have you ever been to the Salton Sea? It's disgusting even when it doesn't stink too badly. :) If it was't for the Southern Pacific Railroad working around the clock for months in 1905 to plug that leak, the entire Imperial Valeey would be an inland sea. It looks like there's an offshoe flow developing in southen California, which I'm sure is what's bring the smell to Santa Ana. Imagine living by that stinking mud puddle. Yuck!
Nah it's more the result of a gust front/outflow boundary that came through the area as a result of a dying MCS. The NWS office at San Diego even mentioned it in the Weather Story last night and I tracked it on radar and satellite. Unfortunately, archive imagery is hard to come by for local satellite and radar products and I apparently our NWS office doesn't keep an archive for its weather stories.

Here's a quote from Skye's article, though

Quoting Linked Article:
The massive thunderstorm complex moved from Mexico over the area Sunday night, with wind gusts up to 60 mph and widespread dust storms.

"We were watching it from the office on our satellite radar and it was huge, one of the largest that any of us have ever seen in probably 10 years," said Mark Moede, a National Weather Service meteorologist in San Diego.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 23N40W TO A 1008
MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 16N41W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WAVE/LOW ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF VERY DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 36W-45W. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WNW AT 13 TO 17 KT.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Yes , like anywhere else in the world ,slums are slums. By the way we are not trying to hurt your feeling or compete in any way just giving you people a suggestion , is up to you to listen or don't. Have a great night !!

No offense taken and none intended. I was just pointing out that building codes tend to be honored more in the breach than in reality. If you have money, you can build a very strong home. If you don't, you put up what you can afford and hope for the best. I wish everyone in PR could live in safe housing, which is no different than the mainland. Here, we have millions of people living in mobile homes that are dangerous in any kind of wind storm, but they also do what they must to get by.
We had some Flooding in Truro, Nova Scotia the town had to be evacuated.The Burin Penn of Newfoundland is where leslie should make landfall.Central portion of that province should get another 4 plus inches of rain on top of the other 4-6 inches or so they recieved yesterday.But hey it could have been alot worse for Eastern Newfoundland if Leslie had of been able to form a core 3 or 4 days ago.
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Im just going to drop the subject with concrete homes, i didn't know it was so controversial.

I apologize if i offended anyone with my comment early, i was simply clarfing the effects of wind( only wind) against a concrete home.


You guys have great night!!!

Stay safe

;-)

I don't think these kinds of construction discussions are controversial at all, at least not to me. I always try to learn what I can from people on the blog. My questions was prompted by the fact that PR faces twin threats, hurricanes and earthquakes. I was wondering if the very type of construction that's so wind resistant would also pose a hazard in an earthquake. I lived in California for 35 years and have gone through a couple of fairly large quakes, as well as being part of the rescue work after the quakes. I saw first hand the results of bad design and bad construction. I was wondering how engineers and architects in PR have designed the concrete structures to deal with both threats.

Hope you have a good night also, and maybe you'll finally get some rain in the next couple of weeks. :)
I can't believe Leslie followed Isaac in terms of pressure (although in a different nature)!
70 mph 968 mb
Maybe no TD14 after all. Though it's weird that it said that on the NRL website.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 110853
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

...STRONG WINDS SPREADING OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
...CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.7N 56.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR... TO TRITON

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING...AND MOVE AWAY FROM ATLANTIC CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL OR
FRONTAL CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...
500 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH...72 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT ST. LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND. A CANADIAN BUOY SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WITH A
GUST TO 69 MPH...111 KM/H WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
CANADIAN BUOY IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
THIS MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 110851
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

...MICHAEL WEAKENING FAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 47.7W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
No td 14 yet!
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
No td 14 yet!


I was going to be pissed if they called it.
There's no TD 14 yet. The ATCF doesn't say it's a tropical depression, and it's already past 09 UTC.
(Although 91L was designated TD 14 yesterday at 12UTC, the renumber was reversed.)
Quoting Bobbyweather:
There's no TD 14 yet. The ATCF doesn't say it's a tropical depression, and it's already past 09 UTC.
(Although 91L was designated TD 14 yesterday at 12UTC, the renumber was reversed.)


Yeah, I was afraid of that. I noticed the lack of renumber on the ATCF website, but figured they would follow suit with NRL.

My bad guys.

Out for real this time.
Lets all take a few minutes to reflect at

8:46AM America changed forever!

NEVER NEVER FORGET!
americas response to 9/11 was wrong. if we treated this gang of hoodlums like gangsters like they were we might not be wrapped up in these unwinnable wars.
Quoting islander101010:
americas response to 9/11 was wrong. if we treated this gang of hoodlums like gangsters like they were we might not be wrapped up in these unwinable wars.

yep
91L:

Quoting Skyepony:
SANTA ANA, Calif. (AP) - A strong rotten egg smell had Southern Californians plugging their noses and crying foul Monday as air quality investigators scrambled to determine if the sulfurous scent was coming from the Salton Sea.

Investigators from the South Coast Air Quality Management District spread investigators all over the region in an attempt to track the stench after being flooded with 200 complaints since midnight from across much of the district's 10,000 square miles, said Barry Wallerstein, executive for the agency.

Wallerstein said "several factors" indicate the odor could be coming from the Salton Sea, a 376-square-mile saltwater lake about 150 miles southeast of Los Angeles, but there is no definitive evidence yet of this or any other cause.

"The odor was extremely intense," said Janis Dawson of the Salton Sea Authority. "We actually thought that somebody had an accident, a broken sewage main, that's how strong it was."

The dying sea, a major resting stop for migrating birds on the Pacific Flyway, has been plagued by increasing salinity. Created in 1905 when floodwaters broke through a Colorado River irrigation canal, it's expected to shrink significantly by 2018 and become even saltier.

The sea had a fish die-off within the past week and that, combined with strong storms in the area late Sunday, could have churned up the water and unleashed bacteria from the sea floor that caused the stench, said Dawson.

The massive thunderstorm complex moved from Mexico over the area Sunday night, with wind gusts up to 60 mph and widespread dust storms.


What a disaster that place became. I use it as an example when I talk to people about water quality on the Indian River lagoon. They just don't understand the importance of clean water and healthy ecosystems
Good morning.

Leslie's not going to be classified as tropical much longer:



Michael's dying:



91L just needs convection:

FXUS64 KLIX 110904
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER BEFORE HUMIDITY BEGINS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF STATES WITH ONSET OF EASTERLY GRADIENT
FLOW REGIME. NO RAIN EXPECTED TODAY OVER LAND AREAS THOUGH SOME
LIGHT RETURNS MAY APPEAR ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF RADAR TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT TREND TOWARDS NORMAL WEDNESDAY. OF A MINOR
CONCERN IS APPEARANCE OF MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE LOWER BAY
OF CAMPECHE IN THE 1014MB RANGE AND ACCOMPANIED BY AN MCS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ. SOME MODELS AND TELECONNECTIONS SUGGEST THIS
MAY BE AN AREA OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENSIS IN COMING DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...NOTHING APPEAR IMMINENT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR PERSISTENCE AND NORTHWARD DRIFT.
MEANWHILE...2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LURK OFFSHORE AND
WILL BE SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Hmmmmm Future 92-L ?
Good morning, everyone.

Today is 9.11, a tragic day in our history. I, also, hope all can take a moment of silence to commemorate the fallen from this day. For the majority it was something watched in horror on TV. For others, like those on a military post or base, it was six weeks of living going through checkpoint after checkpoint to get to work or home, soldiers guarding/walking through hospitals and schools. And for those in NYC living through a horror unimaginable before that day, surpassing other bombings that had happened.

Today is our last cool morning probably until Fall truly arrives.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning.

Leslie's not going to be classified as tropical much longer:



Michael's dying:



91L just needs convection:


Good morning MA and everyone else. Once just some more convection develops we will have a TD, I don't think Leslie is tropical anymore, and Michael isn't much more than a swirl.
........forecast for the Tampa Bay area
The BOC and the Old frontal Boundary are active this morning as seen on sat loops.

Link
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
324 AM MST TUE SEP 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...

* UNTIL 515 AM MST/515 AM PDT/.

* AT 315 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF MEADVIEW TO THE PIERCE
FERRY AND ANTARES ROAD JUNCTION...JUST WEST OF GRAND CANYON RANCH.
THE STORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH ONE LOCAL OBSERVATION
SITE INDICATING 1.06 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN 30 MINUTES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAND CANYON RANCH...PIERCE FERRY ROAD...AND MEADVIEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN WASHES...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND ON
AREA ROADWAYS. FLASH FLOODING IS NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLER. TO ESCAPE
RISING WATER...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED
ROADWAY OR WALK THROUGH FLOODWATERS. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!
616. atris
First time poster just wanted to say that the quote below I am in total agreement with


Quoting trunkmonkey:
Lets all take a few minutes to reflect at

8:46AM America changed forever!

NEVER NEVER FORGET!
Lotta naked swirls today...
Quoting HurricaneDan:
Lotta naked swirls today...

Leslie= naked swirl with convection displaced to the north.
Michael= naked swirl with very little convection.
91L= kinda of a naked swirl but convection has been firing.
I am off to teach. May today be a wonderful day for everyone. Please remember those lost this day, gone but not forgotten.
National Hurricane Center’s views on the use of scales to communicate the storm surge hazard

"The new approaches to surge are being designed to reinforce instructions from local
emergency managers. We cannot overstate the importance of following evacuation
orders and other instructions from local officials, regardless of the category or strength
of a tropical storm or hurricane. Ignoring evacuation orders risks not only the lives of
those who stay behind, but also the lives of first responders who may be called upon to
rescue them."
Snow on the 6Z
MARINE...
RIDGING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST KEEPING WINDS
EASTERLY TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
NORTH OVER THE WATERS. EXPECTING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AS THE MOISTURE INCREASE THE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL. FLOW
STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN RELAXES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY
GET CLOSE TO NEEDING A SCEC FOR WINDS BUT FOR NOW WILL BE CARRYING
NEAR 15KTS OR LESS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE
SPREAD OF THE MODELS...BUT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE AROUND 00Z SAT
THROUGH 18Z SUN COMPLICATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE FRONT ALIGN TO ROTATE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND MAY END PERSISTING FOR A DAY OR TWO.

Houston NWS Discussion This Morning..
91L show time has arrived. According to the models it should now turn about 45 degrees to the current track and head NorthWest. Otherwise some egg on the model designers faces and some nasty weather headed for the Northern islands. Is this just model fiction ? I hope not. I really really want to believe but somehow 20N by 50W seems implausible.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I KNEW BETTER THAN TO POST THE TRAGIC DEATHS OF 3000 AMERICANS, THE LEFTEST IN THE BLOG POLITICIZE EVERYTHING THIS GREAT COUNTRY STANDS FOR.
I BET THEIR FAMILIES WEREN'T THINKING ABOUT THESE BASELESS COMMENTS!

SAD, SAD, SAD!

Very sad indeed, Trunkmonkey.
Leslie's center is making landfall.
00
ABNT20 KNHC 111150
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE MOVING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1135 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
ADVISORIES ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
91L still remains at 90% and will likely be a depression at 11am per the TWO.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 111150
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE MOVING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1135 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
ADVISORIES ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
90E up to 60%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Much like 9/11/2001, it is calm over the Eastern US. Never forget!

11 years ago, on this day, 19 faceless cowards hijacked 4 planes and crashed them into 3 major buildings. The 4th plane never reached its destination because of the heroism of the passengers on board. Never forget what happened that day. America came together, with no regards to a person's color, religious beliefs, or political affiliation. Let us do the same today. Also, remember all the soldiers who have died or were injured defending our freedom.





Today 11 years ago I was waking up for work and headed to downtown D.C.I got in the office and 2 hours later rumors started to surface that a plane had crashed into a building.Then only 25 minutes later I see smoke coming from the distance...The Pentagon had been hit.
well i guss this makes LESLIE not a fish storm


Lots of colour
Today is a calm cool day over the eastern 1/2 of the country today. Very similar to 11 years ago. I was only in preschool when it happened but I still remember 1 thing. That there were no planes flying in the sky so my mother told me the air traffic control system was broken. Of course I believed that and didn't know what really happened until later. Never forget the tragedy of 9/11.
Good Morning. Many of us remembering where we were glued to the TV's this morning on 9/11.....I was at work watching the tragedy unfold with a co-worker wondering if it was an accident until the second plane hit on live TV. Remember all the lives lost on 9/11 and the American soldiers and CIA folks who their gave their lives the past 11 years.

On the weather front, very dry out in the Atlantic. Gonna give the system out there a tough time spinning up in the short-term.

WV snapshot:

Link
Quoting CapnK:
Headline: "Summer 2012: 3rd hottest in U.S. history"...

Yet from the body text: "Reliable weather records for the U.S. go back to 1895."

Does not parse.

Nearly as much time has elapsed from 1895 'til current date, as had before 1895 to the real actual beginning of "U.S. history". These are historically insignificant numbers of years, when looking at the climatological record.

This is a Propaganda piece. No thanks.


So it's ok if I make up facts before 1895? The summer of 1813 was so cold it snowed in the south.
Quoting yqt1001:


So it's ok if I make up facts before 1895? The summer of 1813 was so cold it snowed in the south.


His point is that us history goes back to 1776 not 1895.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Snow on the 6Z


no, its not snow..
Quoting weatherh98:


His point is that us history goes back to 1776 not 1895.


My point is that weather history only goes back to 1895.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no, its not snow..

I don't think its snow, too early for that.
Quoting yqt1001:


My point is that weather history only goes back to 1895.



Seriously

LOLOLOLOLOL

Recorded weather history yes

Weather history no.

Weather history goes back to the earth's first day
Quoting weatherh98:



Seriously

LOLOLOLOLOL

Recorded weather history yes

Weather history no.

Weather history goes back to the earth's first day


Well reliable weather history. :P

Just saying, making facts up before 1895 is totally possible as there is very little proof.
On 9/11/01 I was 4 years old. playing the piano preparing to go to piano class.
I remember some sort of uninterrupted breaking news coverage on the TV and my mom said "oh my goodness".
I don't remember hearing about it in the days following 9/11.

Thats all i remember.
I learned about what happened in later years
It was a terrible day that we will never forget.
The real deal this time?

invest_RENUMBER_al912012_al142012.ren
Quoting yqt1001:


Well reliable weather history. :P

Just saying, making facts up before 1895 is totally possible as there is very little proof.


It should say

"third warmest summer in reliable and recorded weather history." (1895)
Quoting Neapolitan:
The real deal this time?

invest_RENUMBER_al912012_al142012.ren

The TWO did say advisories would be likely started at 11am so its likely this is the real renumber.
TROPICAL UPDATE...
______________________________

LET'S REMEMBER THE ONES WHO FOUGHT FOR THEIR AND OUR FREEDOM
SEPTEMBER 11, 2001

I'll never forget


click for bigger pic
Good Morning..the 00z CMC has a storm in the GOM

Some early pictures of storm damage and flooding in Newfoundland, but maybe before the main winds arrived.

Link didn't work

Here's the C&P

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrad or/story/2012/09/11/newfoundland-storm-leslie.html
Quoting Neapolitan:
The real deal this time?

invest_RENUMBER_al912012_al142012.ren
Finally at last?
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..the 00z CMC has a storm in the GOM

Please don't make me laugh :D.

Is it really a T.D?.We all know what happened yesterday..
Seems legit--though remember that this happened yesterday morning, only to be swiftly rescinded. So given how the ATCF has behaved this year, you may want to give the NHC final say:

AL, 14, 2012091112, , BEST, 0, 160N, 426W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M
Does anyone know if environment canada issues their own advisories on tropical cyclones or if they have to go with the NHC, and just add their own local impacts to it? I know they write their own, but are they obligated to follow the NHC's windspeed, pressure, etc?
Quoting weatherh98:


It should say

"third warmest summer in reliable and recorded weather history." (1895)


Good point and I agree.
659. SLU
11/1145 UTC 16.2N 42.4W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic
why did lLeslie's pressure go down so much...it's the same as Isaac's...
is it because of the size?
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Lets all take a few minutes to reflect at

8:46AM America changed forever!

NEVER NEVER FORGET!

True. We should pause and reflect on this moment that changed our country. How it shaped our foreign policy priorities, our economy (in several ways), and more importantly we should remember those lives that were lost in the attacks themselves and in combat.
The first attack on USA soil in decades. Never forget the people that died on this horrible day, and thank the soldiers that fight for our freedom every day.
R.I.P. Leslie (8/30 - 9/11/2012)

AL, 12, 2012091112, , BEST, 0, 477N, 551W, 60, 968, PT, 50, NEQ, 150, 150, 60, 60, 1004, 330, 100, 75, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LESLIE, D,
Quoting Neapolitan:
R.I.P. Leslie (8/30 - 9/11/2012)

AL, 12, 2012091112, , BEST, 0, 477N, 551W, 60, 968, PT, 50, NEQ, 150, 150, 60, 60, 1004, 330, 100, 75, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LESLIE, D,




About time
Quoting Neapolitan:
The real deal this time?

invest_RENUMBER_al912012_al142012.ren

I'll wait till the NHC names 91L -> TD14
Link
My always beloved cousin Carmen Alicia Rivera, she past away at the Twin Towers Attack, she used to worked at the Second Tower at floor 96th as a supervisor, she were only 33 yrs old. She gave away her space at the Express Elevator to an old lady that used to be one of her employee. SHE IS MY HERO, SHE IS MY ANGEL
Quoting acl8610:
Does anyone know if environment canada issues their own advisories on tropical cyclones or if they have to go with the NHC, and just add their own local impacts to it? I know they write their own, but are they obligated to follow the NHC's windspeed, pressure, etc?





WOCN31 CWHX 110845
Intermediate tropical cyclone information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 5:55 AM ADT
Tuesday 11 September 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Intermediate tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Labrador
=new= Newfoundland
=new= Nova Scotia
=new= Prince Edward Island.

For tropical storm Leslie.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.

Leslie currently giving tropical storm conditions to southern
Newfoundland - will make landfall in the vicinity of the Burin
Peninsula over the next 1 to 3 hours.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
As of 6.00 AM ADT, tropical storm Leslie was located near 45.7
North 56.4 west, or about 250 kilometres southwest of Argentia, nl.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 km/h with higher gusts, and the
storm is moving toward the north-northeast at near 65 km/h.
The minimum central pressure is 968 MB.

The centre of Leslie is expected to make landfall in the vicinity of
the Burin Peninsula or Placentia Bay over the next 1 to 3 hours.
Rain bands extend out ahead of Leslie and are currently giving very
heavy rainfall rates on the order of 25 millimetres per hour to parts
of the Burin and Avalon peninsulas. Southeast winds are
strengthening rapidly over these regions as well; Cape Race recently
reported a wind gust to 85 km/h; Winterland and St. Lawrence on the
Burin Peninsula recently reported a wind gust to 83 and 95 km/h
respectively. A private weather station at cape pine on the Southern
Avalon recently reported a hurricane force wind gust to 122 km/h.

Tropical storm Leslie is merging with a pre-existing frontal trough
over Newfoundland and the combined system will sweep across the
province today giving additional heavy rainfall to some of the areas
already drenched by this system on Monday.

Dangerous tropical storm or near-hurricane like conditions can be
expected over Southeastern Newfoundland this morning as Leslie pushes
onshore.

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches as well as wind.
Warnings remain in effect for parts of southern and Eastern
Newfoundland expected to be directly affected by tropical storm
Leslie this morning. Rainfall warnings are in effect for eastern
mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton, and most of Newfoundland.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/CHC



FXCN31 CWHX 111200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.35 AM NDT
TUESDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2012.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 PM NDT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.30 AM NDT, POST-TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
47.6 N AND LONGITUDE 54.8 W, ABOUT 37 NAUTICAL MILES OR 69 KM
NORTHWEST OF ARGENTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65
KNOTS (120 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 969 MB. LESLIE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
SEP 11 9.30 AM 47.6N 54.8W 969 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 11 3.30 PM 51.1N 51.4W 969 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 11 9.30 PM 54.7N 47.9W 971 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 3.30 AM 57.7N 43.8W 973 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 9.30 AM 60.4N 38.8W 974 60 111 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

AT 11Z POST-TROPICAL STORM LESLIE MADE LANDFALL NEAR FORTUNE ON THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BURIN PENINSULA WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH WIND
GUSTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 969MB AND WIND GUSTS
OF 67KT WERE REPORTED EAST OF THE STORM AT CYYT AND CWWU. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLEARLY DISPLACED TO THE EAST AT THIS TIME WHICH
CONFIRMS THAT LESLIE HAS COMPLETED THE TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL
STORM. INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AS A 65KT TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW. WATER
VAPER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY ADVANCING ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE STORM. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS COLDER CLOUD
TOPS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER INDICATING THAT LESLIE HAS
CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT NEARLY 35 KNOTS.


B. PROGNOSTIC

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TRACK PHILOSPHY. LESLIE IS INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN MARITIMES MOVING JUST
SLIGHTLY FASTER NOW WHICH SHOULD BRING IT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
AROUND 18Z. IT WILL REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST TROPICAL CYCLONE
AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS. WE ARE MAINTAINING
THE INTENSITY AT 65 KNOT POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY ALONG EASTERN COASTAL AREAS.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
11/12Z 230 285 260 270 155 200 125 100 100 100 30 10
11/18Z 240 275 250 270 150 195 140 105 0 0 0 0
12/00Z 245 280 240 250 140 190 150 110 0 0 0 0
12/06Z 250 290 230 250 140 185 150 115 0 0 0 0
12/12Z 250 290 230 250 140 175 145 120 0 0 0 0


END/BORGEL/COUTURIER
Quoting weatherh98:


His point is that us history goes back to 1776 not 1895.


His point is demonstrating that he has a lack of reading comprehension. Reliable US temperature records go back to 1895. Yes US history goes back to 1776, but before 1895 temperature records were not as reliable, or available in all areas for that matter.

Being willfully ignorant is fine. But people shouldn't post such nonsense on a science based blog and expect to not get called out it.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ON THE 11/0600 UTC ANALYSIS EXTENDING FROM 15N20W TO 6N18W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N22W TO 10N25W.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The first attack on USA soil in decades. Never forget the people that died on this horrible day, and thank the soldiers that fight for our freedom every day.

We should also pray for those individuals that are or have endured economic hard times as an indirect result of 9/11. They should also not be forgotten.
Quoting Chicklit:
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ON THE 11/0600 UTC ANALYSIS EXTENDING FROM 15N20W TO 6N18W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N22W TO 10N25W.

This little wave is something we must keep an eye on since it is pretty far to the south.
Quoting weatherh98:



Seriously

LOLOLOLOLOL

Recorded weather history yes

Weather history no.

Weather history goes back to the earth's first day


Actually, no it doesn't. Weather doesn't happen without an atmosphere and it took quite a while for one to form.

Unless of course you subscribe to certain myths about Earth's creation, in which case there are other blogs to discuss such theological concepts.
Again can anyone tell me why the United State is flying aircraft into a dying storm in the north Atlantic? We fund Canadas weather too! Huge waste of money!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
why did lLeslie's pressure go down so much...it's the same as Isaac's...
is it because of the size?


I think it's called Baroclynic amplification.

When tropical cyclones get far to the north they start to hybridize and mix with fronts and upper level lows, and that can enhance their intensity even as they lose tropical characteristics, and for example, the pressure may drop more, and they "eye" or CoC may get bigger or elongated, etc.
Yes Leslie is finally almost done for.Start the countdown!.
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Again can anyone tell me why the United State is fly aircraft into a dying storm in the north Atlantic? We fund Canadas weather too! Huge waste of money!!!!!!!!!!!

Research
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Again can anyone tell me why the United State is fly aircraft into a dying storm in the north Atlantic? We fund Canadas weather too! Huge waste of money!!!!!!!!!!!
Hurricane forecasting is science and anywhere they think they can get good info. is where they want to be. Yes it is a dying storm but still has winds and tide surge associated with it. I don't see a problem with the NHC or NOAA acquiring as much info as they want.
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
Link
My always beloved cousin Carmen Alicia Rivera, she past away at the Twin Towers Attack, she used to worked at the Second Tower at floor 96th as a supervisor, she were only 33 yrs old. She gave away her space at the Express Elevator to an old lady that used to be one of her employee. SHE IS MY HERO, SHE IS MY ANGEL


I'm so sorry for your loss, such a horrific loss. What a beautiful lady ouside and inside to do what she did.
Quoting CapnK:
Headline: "Summer 2012: 3rd hottest in U.S. history"...

Yet from the body text: "Reliable weather records for the U.S. go back to 1895."

Does not parse.

Nearly as much time has elapsed from 1895 'til current date, as had before 1895 to the real actual beginning of "U.S. history". These are historically insignificant numbers of years, when looking at the climatological record.

This is a Propaganda piece. No thanks.
Oh, this "argument" again? Most reasonable people are aware that when someone refers to a historical record in any area--weather, sports, hot dog eating--they're talking about something that happened while accurate records were being maintained. When Guinness states that this or that athlete ran the fastest mile ever, they're not discounting the possibility that some long-legged proto-human being chased by a hungry saber-toothed tiger 100,000 years ago may very well have actually run a faster mile. Yet that possibility wouldn't allow one to credibly make the claim that the Guinness record was therefore invalid, would it?

(I realize there are those who claim that, given the age of the earth, no record is of significance. 1,000 years--or 10,000, or a million, or a hundred million--isn't a lengthy enough period of record for to be meaningful for such people, especially when they are in disagreement with what that record shows. If some choose to deny reality in that manner, that's their prerogative, and who am I to try to convince them otherwise?)

At any rate, 118 years may seem "historically insignificant" to some, but given that the past two summers have been among the three hottest ever recorded in this country, that's pretty significant, indeed.
Quoting weather98:
It should say

"third warmest summer in reliable and recorded weather history." (1895).
Such qualifiers would really only serve to unnecessarily clutter the truth. Is "Joe Quarterback threw the longest forward pass in reliable and recorded football history last night" really any clearer than "Joe Quarterback threw the longest forward pass ever last night"? Is "Hurricane Monster's 280 mph sustained winds were the highest ever measured in reliable and recorded meteorological history" a clear and clarifying improvement over "Hurricane Monster's 280 mph sustained winds were the highest ever measured"?

In both cases, no.

Many who don't want to recognize or accept reality often insist on multiple qualifiers to help insulate themselves from the truth. That we do so is an indication that such behavior probably served some forgotten evolutionary purpose at some point along our path to becoming what we are. But nowadays it only holds us back from doing what needs to be done. And that is a tragedy...
Nice tropical wave south of the cape verde islands.Going to be in downtown today going to the differeent festivities in relation to 911.More specifically I' going to Memorial bridge and going to the gates of the Pentagon(not allowed to come in)to leave flowers for those who lost their lives.
Quoting RTSplayer:



I would say the response was right, but the tactics employed after the conventional aspects of war were incorrect.

Was it right to go to war with Iraq even though technically most of the terrorists were not from Iraq? Yes. Saddam should have been taken out of power a decade earlier anyway.

We should have gone to war with Saudi Arabia, though, and bombed them just as hard as Iraq. Instead, what we did was sort of like arresting or killing the accomplices, while letting the masterminds and source of the problem go free.

Unfortunately, Osama Bin Laden was just one man and one mastermind/charismatic terrorist leader. Sadly, he will be replaced in time by another, and the cycle will start all over again. Until the west grinds radical Islam to non-existence, this problem will continue to resurface.

The difference between them and us is we only do it because we were provoked by many terrorist attacks, not just 9/11, that just put it over the top, and we said "Enough. Time to pay for your crimes." On the other hand, they do this allegedly in the name of their false god, or at least certainly a false interpretation of "God," for no good reason really.

Yes war is justified, and assassinations of all radical muslims, not just Al-Quaeda members, whenever and where ever possible, is more than justified.

They want to use "God" as a standard of judgement, here is the commandment of the allegedly the same "God" they claim to be serving:

"Who ever sheds man's blood, by man shall his blood be shed..."

It's one of the oldest commandments in the Bible and Abrahamic faiths.



But anyway, for the urban warfare aspects, we should have kept infantry use to a minimum, and rely on more special forces type stealth kill missions and assassinations for top terror organization members.



Also, I think Gangs and organized "mob" crime in the U.S. should be considered illegal militias or pirates, which the constitution addresses, and they should be prosecuted via war and the laws of war. The only technicality that distinguishes a gang from a pirate is the fact that the traditional definition of piracy requires members of one boat raiding another by violence, or members of a boat raiding land by violence. Gangs often do the exact same thing to one another, or to bystanders on land, just without boats. Some mob violence and other mob activities meets both the definition of illegal militias and the definition of piracy.

People who commit mass shootings or bombings should be prosecuted under the laws of war, not the civilian laws. Terrorism in general including any mass shooting or mass bombing of purely civilian targets, should be considered an act of war, whether or not the perpetrator was a member of any state's military. The perpetrator should be tried as a war criminal under military tribunal.

People who intentionally massacre unarmed civilians deserve no mercy, nor do they deserve the priviledge of plea bargains or other such measures found in a civilian court system.

I know it's off topic, so if the admins want to delete this, fine, I'll put it in my blog instead.


But it IS 9/11 rememberance day after all.

Quoting to preserve it...nicely put!
Quoting RTSplayer:


I think it's called Baroclynic amplification.

When tropical cyclones get far to the north they start to hybridize and mix with fronts and upper level lows, and that can enhance their intensity even as they lose tropical characteristics, and for example, the pressure may drop more, and they "eye" or CoC may get bigger or elongated, etc.


Well, I asked because from adv. 47 the pressure was 988 and now it's 968 mb... a 20 mb drop so fast?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Seems legit--though remember that this happened yesterday morning, only to be swiftly rescinded. So given how the ATCF has behaved this year, you may want to give the NHC final say:

AL, 14, 2012091112, , BEST, 0, 160N, 426W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M


Worth noting that yesterday the confusion was due to the HPC issuing the renumber, not the NHC. It was a test of the backup system that caused the confusion. The NHC never actually planned to upgrade 91L to TD14.

Today, the NHC issued the renumber, so this time it is legit, and unlike yesterday, the wording in the TWO indicates an upgrade at 11, the T# both support the upgrade as well. So I think it is safe to say we have TD14 this time around.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, no it doesn't. Weather doesn't happen without an atmosphere and it took quite a while for one to form.

Unless of course you subscribe to certain myths about Earth's creation, in which case there are other blogs to discuss such theological concepts.


What gives YOU the right to dictate the terms of debate on this blog, since you're neither an admin nor a TWC spox?


The belief in your "history" of the atmosphere, whether true or not, is actually a "hypothesis," not a theory or law, since we cannot test that conjecture by experiment.

If the Earth actually was molten from any Accretion, there would be an atmosphere automatically, because oxygen compounds and hydrogen compounds bake out of rock. In fact, this process is well known and has been suggested as a means of maintaining oxygen supplies on prolonged manned Lunar and possibly even martian landing missions, by using solar power and ovens to bake the oxygen out of the rocks, and catch it with the hydrogen to make water, then electrolysis to separate the Oxygen from the H2O, then recycle the H2.


Now that's just "baking" rock. If the rocks were molten as required in the accretion theory of Earth, then there certainly would have been enormous amounts of atmosphere right away, probably even more than we have today, since a large portion of it would have been stripped away by the Sun in the alleged 5 billion years the Earth was here.


If nothing else, the water would vaporize until it hit a pressure equilibrium that is about the same as today, but slightly higher due to much higher temperatures, because water boils at lower temperature as pressure decreases, and with a much higher temperature, the equilibrium point would be a much higher pressure than what we have now.


So you are quite wrong indeed. An accretion model Earth would have had a MUCH thicker atmosphere at the time of creation than what we have now.


Again, you can prove that by taking a rock and baking it at a few thousand degrees, and it will release the Oxygen, among other gases.

The Oxygen got back into the rocks at a later time, possibly, through Oxidation at temperatures more like today.
my only comment on the subject for this day


"NEVER FORGET,ALWAYS REMEMBER"

Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Again can anyone tell me why the United State is flying aircraft into a dying storm in the north Atlantic? We fund Canadas weather too! Huge waste of money!!!!!!!!!!!



Global Models could be improved by better understanding or northern storms.

A global model tries to forecast everything for the entire planet, which effects trade and military and all other vessels in every part of the planet, not just our mainland. It helps everyone.


If you can improve your input data for one region, the "butterfly effect" will improve the output for all regions.
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Again can anyone tell me why the United State is flying aircraft into a dying storm in the north Atlantic? We fund Canadas weather too! Huge waste of money!!!!!!!!!!!


Here's a question for you. Why does it matter what hurricane hunters fly into? It's not exactly a 10 billion per flight investment. If a storm is threatening land, the hurricane hunters are going to check it out. Stop complaining and understand that research is done with these storms so that the hurricane hunters have a better idea of track, intensity and what to put into the advisories, they also put data into the hurricane models to better understand the threat downhill. With Leslie though it's data and research to observe a system as it goes post-tropical.

Per the NHC and live reconnaissance site, there isn't even a recon out there even. Get a grip.
Quoting weatherh98:


It should say

"third warmest summer in reliable and recorded weather history." (1895)



That is what they mean by default.

Look at the context of the article and the graphics, it is presenting years 1 through 118.


2012 - 117(don't count this year) = 1895

The reason this is correct is because there is no "zeroth" year in the modern record, so it is shifted right 1 year. Therefore 118-1 = 117, then subtracted 117 from 2012 as above.
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..the 00z CMC has a storm in the GOM



Not too intelligent when it comes to the models, but what does this mean? When is it showing a storm for the GOM?
Quoting JasonRE:


Not too intelligent when it comes to the models, but what does this mean? When is it showing a storm for the GOM?


I wouldn't worry about it, there's no other model support to expect cyclogenesis. CMC is notorious for spinning up 'ghost' storms as it where.
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..the 00z CMC has a storm in the GOM

Blehhhhhh! As Snoopy would say....when is the developing?
Good morning everyone
I doubt the NHC will update 91L its convection is still mostly absent, and this is Dmax
plus we've already run this drill once it can happen again
Surprising how much wildlife killed by Issac. Nutria, cows, deer, a whale.... Duration of the wind had to have upped the usual numbers I'm suspecting.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I doubt the NHC will update 91L its convection is still mostly absent, and this is Dmax
plus we've already run this drill once it can happen again



11/1145 UTC 16.2N 42.4W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic

AL, 14, 2012091112, , BEST, 0, 160N, 426W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M

This time, we do have TD14. Last time, the renumber was a test for the HPC, which is a backup to the NHC which caused the confusion. Yesterday, the NHC never planned to upgrade 91L to TD14. Today, it's legit.

If I'm wrong, I might just stop using the ATCF and NRL sites for that data.
Wow just when it warms back up into the mid 80's come mid week it cools right back down into the 70's which leads me to beleive that it won't be to long before we see a abrupt end to the cape verde season.Also with the coming strong troughs expect conditions in the Atlantic to get hostile.Woot woot!.We may experience our first nor'easter in October.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow just when it warms back up into the mid 80's come mid week it cools right back down into the 70's which leads me to beleive that it won't be to long before we see a abrupt end to the cape verde season.Also with the coming strong troughs expect conditions in the Atlantic to get hostile.Woot woot!.We may experience our first nor'easter in October.


Not in the SW Caribbean, where stalled out fronts like the one draped over Florida could cause major systems to develop in October. Think of Rina, Paula, Wilma, ect to name recent examples of this sort of classic development.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not in the SW Caribbean, where stalled out fronts like the one draped over Florida could cause major systems to develop in October. Think of Rina, Paula, Wilma, ect to name recent examples of this sort of classic development.
I forgot to exclude the caribbean.
My thought on 9/11

How naive I was to believe that the world is fundamentally different from that of our ancestors, whose lives were changed by bearing witness to the 20th century's vilest acts of war.

May all the people that passed from this act and all the people effected by this act, may they be at peace.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I forgot to exclude the caribbean.


Yea, I'm thinking that after Nadine we might be in for a lull until early October when the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase comes into a more prominent positive phase.


Thinking that 16-9-1 or 16-9-2 is a fair bet for final total.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, I'm thinking that after Nadine we might be in for a lull until early October when the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase comes into be more prominent positive phase.


Thinking that 16-9-1 or 16-9-2 is a fair bet for final total.
19 is possible depending on how many storms we squeeze out in October(and November if possible) this year.It would be something to have storms form not only before the offical start of hurricane season but after it as well(that's if we get a Olga part two in the caribbean).
Here is the Aussie Met Enso Update from today. Looks like a full-blown strong El Nino is not going to materialize this year....They are already looking at possible Neutral Spring of 2013 conditions. That may open the door to Neutral or La Nina conditions next Fall.

Pacific near El Nino thresholds; positive Indian Ocean Dipole
Issued on Tuesday 11 September | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures remain at values close to El Nino thresholds. Other ENSO indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns show patterns more typical of neutral conditions. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also presently within neutral values.

Regardless of whether El Nino thresholds are reached, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. This, combined with other influences on Australian climate such as cooler than normal waters to the north of the Australian continent and the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, tends to favour below average spring rainfall over much of Australia.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values close to El Nino thresholds before returning to more neutral values towards the end of 2012 or early 2013.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, with values of the IOD index consistently above positive thresholds for the past 7 weeks. Outlooks from the Bureau%u2019s climate model indicate the IOD will likely remain positive throughout the remainder of spring. A positive IOD is usually associated with decreased spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.


707. Kumo
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
my only comment on the subject for this day


"NEVER FORGET,ALWAYS REMEMBER"



We hope it never happens again. Many thank yous to the NYPD and NYFD that risked everything to save the lives of those trapped in the towers.
708. VR46L
Interesting Very Interesting!!! Blob in the BOC

Did the superstition come true this year that.."Something bad always happens to the U.S during leap year when it comes to hurricanes".Well depending on your opinion on wheather Isaac was bad enough for you I think it's true.Lol.I wonder how the U.S will fair the rest of the season.
850 mb Vort on 'Quasi' 14.....

Quoting washingtonian115:
Did the superstition come true this year that.."Something bad always happens to the U.S during leap year when it comes to hurricanes".Well depending on your opinion on wheather Isaac was bad enough for you I think it's true.Lol.I wonder how the U.S will fair the rest of the season.
Isaac was bad enough for me!




Windsat. Circulation looks good.
Quoting superpete:
850 mb Vort on 'Quasi' 14.....

I think we need to keep a good eye on the wave that just came off Africa. Pretty far south.
Sure someone already noticed but 14 on Navy site.

Link
717. JLPR2
I like how the 06z GFS ended. A weak low moving northward between Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles, come on long range prediction, materialize! XD

That way I'll be happy, Caribboy probably wanted a bit more but, rain is rain.

TD14 on NHC site.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Sure someone already noticed but 14 on Navy site.

Link
Now on NHC site as well.
.
By the way for those of you on here (and there are a couple we all know) that whine about there only being "Fish Storms" this year, they may be interested in knowing this. Here in Nova Scotia we have places that are under 4 feet of water from Leslie and as we speak Newfroundland is being pounded by a direct hit. Trees are down, power is out, houses and churches have had the roofs blown off them. We may be different here in Canada but we are not Fish! Alot of people lost their homes yesterday and today.
Quoting NovaScotia33:
By the way for those of you on here (and there are a couple we all know) that whine about there only being "Fish Storms" this year, they may be interested in knowing this. Here in Nova Scotia we have places that are under 4 feet of water from Leslie and as we speak Newfroundland is being pounded by a direct hit. Trees are down, power is out, houses and churches have had the roofs blown off them. We may be different here in Canada but we are not Fish! Alot of people lost their homes yesterday and today.
If that's the case Canada may decide to retire Leslie like they did Igor.I knew there was something fishy(no pun intended) about Leslie's ugly a**.Those poor people up there now have to put up with her and the trouble she's bringing.
unlike the other storms, TD 14 is moving at 10 mph...it can organize faster at lower moving pace
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

CORRECTED FOR MISSING REFERENCE LOCATION

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BUT NOT A THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 43.1W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
725. JLPR2
TD 14 is pretty large.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Did the superstition come true this year that.."Something bad always happens to the U.S during leap year when it comes to hurricanes".Well depending on your opinion on wheather Isaac was bad enough for you I think it's true.Lol.I wonder how the U.S will fair the rest of the season.
What about years with a "leap second?"

Leap Second ... Will Cause 61-Second Minute
Quoting washingtonian115:
Did the superstition come true this year that.."Something bad always happens to the U.S during leap year when it comes to hurricanes".Well depending on your opinion on wheather Isaac was bad enough for you I think it's true.Lol.I wonder how the U.S will fair the rest of the season.


Isaac was certainly bad and did take lives. But, was it (in terms of fatalities and/or monetary damage) worse than the average worst tropical cyclone affecting the US in a given year?
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Again can anyone tell me why the United State is flying aircraft into a dying storm in the north Atlantic? We fund Canadas weather too! Huge waste of money!!!!!!!!!!!


Well, there aren't any aircraft there, but that's beside the point. Storms often develop in Canada and move into the States. NCEP uses data from Canada to initialize the GFS and other US models. Does this mean Canada pays for US weather forecasts? Of course not. It just means that the World Meteorological Organization and its agreements for member states (nearly every country on earth) to share data is alive and well, and one of the few examples of really good international cooperation.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
God bless America and the troops that defend this great nation of ours! And despite the problems we may have we still live in the greatest nation on earth. May it forever stay that way. Never forget 9/11!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
unlike the other storms, TD 14 is moving at 10 mph...it can organize faster at lower moving pace

The farther in time we progress, the better the conditions are in the east and Central Atlantic. My opinion anyways.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Except I don't believe pat Robertson has killed anyone...


but other radical christians have.... abortion clinic bombings...the atlanta olympics bombings....oklahoma city..... shall i go on?
Just saw that TWC footage of Hurricane Iniki in Hawaii blowing off the hip roof of that building.

I just gotta say, as impressive as it looked, that roof had a flawed design. The roof itself did not fail, but it lacked "Kickers" on the overhangs*, and it lacked straps. If it had either/or, the total failure and blown away event would not have happened.

* a "Kicker" is the short, 2-by-4 framing piece which goes between the tail of the rafters and connects it in a triangle to a lower portion of the wall. This is what forms the parallel overhang on most American roof construction.

Typically, the framing crew runs a 2-by-4, sometimes 2-by-6, along the wall nailed into each stud, and these kickers are nailed perpendicular to this board, and run horizontal out to the end of the tails, where they are nailed into the tails of the Rafters and an outside "tail plate," typically 2-by-4 or 2-by-6.

In order for a roof like this to be "blown away," the wind would basically need to disintegrate the entire wall, or take the entire building air-bourne.

In Louisiana I think this was pre-andrew code in most districts, or at least I was never involved in making a house without the kickers, except on one possible occasion.

The roof without kickers looks "fancy" and more popular, but it is nowhere near as strong. I don't know for sure, but kickers with no straps is probably significantly stronger than straps with no kickers.

Doing both probably adds a full category or 2 to the survivability of a structure compared to doing neither.
Quoting floridafisherman:


just curious, but do you only advocate assassinations against radical muslims?


No.

1, Domestic and International crimes that would otherwise be considered war crimes:

Anyone directly involved in terrorism, piracy, gang, or mob massacres or other killings related to their activities and other militia or para-militia criminal organizations; Organized crimes or terror attacks or mass shootings not involving any state's military.

2, Evil dictators who commit war crimes or atrocities against their own people or neighboring nations.

We should kill such organizations or rogue governments from the top down, rather than the bottom up as we have done in the past. Aim for heads of state, cabinet members, officers and other "appointed" officials first.

A tomahawk missile should have been up Ghaddafi's rear end decades ago, IMO.

Assad in Syria?

His entire government should be executed. We already know they are guilty war crimes and massacres against their own people, which started even before the two-way violence happened. They opened fire on unarmed protestors in some cases. It's public, world wide knowledge, so a "trial" is a joke and unnecessary.


If we're going to baby-sit the MIddle East then let's go ahead and do it, and off these guys immediately every time they do something like this, instead of letting it go on for decades.

After a few years of that policy, I think any potential Saddams, Ghadafi's, and Asads would think twice before doing this any more.



what about the radical conservative christians? pat robertson and his like? they are pretty radical in alot of aspects. so should we start assassinating them as well? or do you only hate muslims?



The majority of radical christians haven't bombed or shot anyone, and would never do unprovoked physical violence to anyone.


Comparing Pat Robertson to a terrorist or pirate, regardless of religion or non-religion, is completely absurd as they have nothing at all in common.



The reason I hate muslims is because radicals want me and all other "infidels" dead for no reason whatsoever, and make unprovoked terror attacks and massacres of innocents. meanwhile, the so-called "moderates" almost never confront the radicals or do anything about it at all.

Many of the so-called "moderates" were mad and complained that we killed Bin Laden.

He got better than what he deserved.

He should have been paraded around on a pike in the capital city of every nation that has been hit by an Al Quaeda terrorist attack, and let everyone, especially Muslims, watch while the birds picked out his eyes.

And anyone who wanted to should be given the opportunity to take a piss on his corpse.

That's more in line with what the crime was. Teh punishment should fit the crime, and his secret burial at sea was not fitting the crime.


As for non-muslims like this most recent guy who did the booby trap and distraction for police, while doing the mass shooting in the theatre, the punishment should fit the crime.

It was a para-military style attack with at least 3 layers of pre-planning: distraction, booby trap, massacre the unarmed.

That is not insanity, that is a calculated, rationally planned murderous attack.


He should get the same fate as any other "war criminal" type perpetrator, in a military tribunal, NOT a civilian court. They should not have the benefit of a plea bargain or insanity plea, as this is a deliberately calculated attack with multi-layers of planning, intended to maximized civilian casualties. In that case by distracting or attempted murdering the police with his booby traps, almost like "Jigsaw" from the "Saw" horror/thriller movies.


In cases like this where the guilt is already know and is not in any contestation, I think it needs to go farther even. The law should give the police officers the right and responsibility of executing the perpetrator on sight.

It's ridiculous that millions of dollars will be spent on a "trial" for somebody everyone already knows is absolutely guilty, and then the bastard will probably get away with it somehow on an "insanity" plea. It's a mockery to even the most basic concepts of justice.




It absolutely makes me sick the way our judicial system works for the majority of cases. We actually have another mass murderer, who killed 4 people and maimed a few others by driving over them in a car back in 2001, and he plead insanity (but was found guilty of the crime,) so they put him in a mental hospital, and now after 10 years he's been declared "cured" and is going to be released!!! If the SoB is "cured" then he can serve his 4 life sentences in prison, or take the death sentence, just like every other "sane" murderer or mass murderer.