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Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

No advisory update yet?
1002. 7544
evening all just in case you just tuned in

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

40-50 mph wind gusts for a Category 2 hurricane in 120 hours?


I told you what I saw...it's the graphic fault.
1004. LBAR
Leslie alread "waving" Hello! to the waters off the SC and GA coasts. From the Charleston, SC NWS discussion:

THE WAVE
SPECTRUM WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF SMALL SWELLS AND SHORTER
PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES...RANGING UPWARDS TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM OF
THE COAST AND UP TO 4 FT FURTHER OUT. BUOY PLATFORMS ARE STARTING
TO SHOW SOME OF THE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE LESLIE REACHING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...WITH A 13
SECOND PERIOD AT 41008. FURTHER OUT THERE IS EVEN 15 SECOND
PERIODS AT 41002.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I told you what I saw...it's the graphic fault.

Lol.
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 210SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 63.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 63.1W
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
..LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
1010. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


Hmm... XD
I would have preferred to see:
...But stationary...


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO KEEP THE STORM FROM BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. HOWEVER...A
RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING HAS
OCCURRED...AND BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER ON...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INSISTENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS THE GFS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED AND
SYMMETRICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER LESLIE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE LATEST LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS.

MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE STORM
HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF AT ALL...SO THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS STATIONARY. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUITE SLOWLY IN A
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION WHILE IT REMAINS IN VERY WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY ABOUT 5
DAYS...THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD INDUCE A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT WAVES GREATER THAN 12 FEET HIGH EXTEND
SOME 300-400 N MI FROM THE CENTER. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...LARGE SWELLS
PROPAGATING AWAY FROM LESLIE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 24.6N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 27.2N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 28.5N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 42.8W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that purple is for 40 - 50 mph...they follow the yellow color


Yes, that is a very erratic scale from NHC... For an expected 48footer...

The Beaufort Scale...

Isaac remnants trying to blob up before getting to the gulf.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, somehow I doubt the validity of that ASCAT pass.


Good call. Lot of orange (suspect) flags there.
My forecast, the 00z WFM (Wxchaser97 Forecast Model)

Note: low impacts are mainly minor stuff(waves, rip currents, and beach erosion), moderate is a higher degree of those impacts depending in the area, high is usually TS- cat1, and extreme is cat1/2 up.
1017. snowboy
Quoting Skyepony:
Cloudsat just caught Leslie. Click pic to get orination. Left side is slicing from the north edge right side is coming out the SSE side of the storm. Passes a little to the right of the COC.



wow - that is one way cool image!
1018. Patrap

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Leslie

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

1021. beell
No love for 13?


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE NEAR OR JUST UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RATHER LINEAR BAND OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION...SUGGESTIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE AT 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS AND
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHERE THE SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY LOW. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IS FORECAST TO
IMPINGE ON THE DEPRESSION. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY CROSS-SECTION
ANALYSES OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS WHICH SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT. THE ABRUPT INCREASE
IN SHEAR SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO CAUSE WEAKENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS ONE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...CONSERVATIVELY
SHOWING REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/04. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD TURN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND ERODES THE RIDGE FURTHER. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS
AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AFTER THAT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST HWRF MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 25.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 26.3N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 27.0N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 27.8N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 28.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z 31.0N 44.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Bryan Norcross did a new blog on Isaac .


the convection appears to be shifting ne
GFS draws Leslie as a big Cane...



1026. Patrap
Birmingham
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range
248 NMI

1027. JLPR2
Even though it shows a mess of a LLC, winds look much stronger.

older pass:


current one:
Blog moving at the pace of a snail.
Quoting Felix2007:
Blog moving at the pace of a snail.
naw its just a time shift from no school too school in about OOO 19 mins from now
Quoting Felix2007:
Blog moving at the pace of a snail.

That's still faster than Leslie is moving.
Where they all going?
1033. bappit
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Bryan Norcross did a new blog on Isaac .

Norcross: "Everybody's a meteorologist today, they look at the models, slice and dice the uncertainty, and the message from the National Hurricane Center gets mangled beyond recognition."

Also: "And... the media has to man up. All of it. Everybody. Hurricane Warnings, storm-surge forecasts, the ability of large circulations to move a lot of water, the entire discussion has to be had over and over in a situation like this. No quick hits, no hitting high points, and no trivializing chatter about the models."
Quoting Funication:
Where they all going?



forward
has anyone seen the 18 model gfs run for 16 days from now or 384 look out florida


new ice formation with some scattered areas of slight snow cover returning
1037. auburn
NOAA stab at humor..and not bad!!


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 46.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 51.1N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN
Quoting Funication:
Where they all going?


I wondered how the blobs are affecting Africa.


Niger has worst floods for 100 years. Thu, 30 Aug ... Reports say it is the worst flooding seen for nearly 100 years in the West African country


The URL didn't work for this article. I copied the stub from Google.



GFS 78 hrs.

Quoting SubtropicalHi:


I wondered how the blobs are affecting Africa.


@#!*% has worst floods for 100 years. Thu, 30 Aug ... Reports say it is the worst flooding seen for nearly 100 years in the West African country


The URL didn't work for this article. I copied the stub from Google.





How awful to have the name of a country censored. It's located N of Nigeria, between Chad and Mali.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


The did the same thing last year when it was first thought Ireme might go there. They do it with every storm that might hit NY. I think it's their way of reminding people of being too lax and not taking storms seriously, thinking it never happens to NY and the east coast.


How true. The 1821 storm hit NC first, then barreled up the Eastern Seaboard. Wiki mentions another even more powerful 'cane that hit the region some 800-1000 years ago. Amazing that an individual hurricane can be known about from that long ago.

The entry also mentions Irene as one of four known tropical cyclones to directly hit NYC. The highest sustained winds in NYC from Irene were 32 mph (at the Central Park station according to Wundergound).

As for Leslie, is it just me, or is she looking really imposing tonight?!
Quoting psetas23:
has anyone seen the 18 model gfs run for 16 days from now or 384 look out florida


Would you mind posting a link? Thank you.
1043. bappit
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


As for Leslie, is it just me, or is she looking really imposing tonight?!

Lots of green on the Funktop image.
108 hrs. shift west by about 2 degrees:

1045. bappit
Quoting GTcooliebai:
108 hrs. shift west by about 2 degrees:


That's less than the average forecast error out that far so it does not seem like a lot to me--not that a model constitutes a forecast.
Link
1046. sar2401
Quoting Patrap:
Birmingham
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50%uFFFD Elevation
Range
248 NMI


We've been getting hamered all day long here in central AL. Looks like typical rainbands being spun off from a tropical storm...except there isn't anything around except the remnants of Isaac. We've had over two inches of rain today, compared to .16 inches when Isaac was a hurricane 200 miles from us. I don't usually agree with models that want to do weird things, but I really think the ghost of Isaac is up to something.
1047. sar2401
Quoting auburn:
NOAA stab at humor..and not bad!!


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 46.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 51.1N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN


LOL. That was posted here about 14 microseconds after it hit the NHC website this morning. Lots of weather geeks are apparently also Trekkies. :)
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


How awful to have the name of a country censored. It's located N of Nigeria, between Chad and Mali.

Political correctness in the digital age. Probably thinks your a lousy speller too.
1049. msphar
Leslie's gonna wear that patch of water out pretty soon unless she gets her mojo in gear and moves a bit.
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


How awful to have the name of a country censored. It's located N of Nigeria, between Chad and Mali.


Veering off topic, I know, but when I saw a geopolitical map of Northern Africa as a kid, I thought the name of the country was pronounced in the hateful way. I asked my mom about it. But really, to censor the name because of that similarity. Some people need to grow up I guess.

I agree with the poster who stated that Leslie appears to be NE-bound at the moment.
1051. sar2401
Quoting bappit:

Norcross: "Everybody's a meteorologist today, they look at the models, slice and dice the uncertainty, and the message from the National Hurricane Center gets mangled beyond recognition."

Also: "And... the media has to man up. All of it. Everybody. Hurricane Warnings, storm-surge forecasts, the ability of large circulations to move a lot of water, the entire discussion has to be had over and over in a situation like this. No quick hits, no hitting high points, and no trivializing chatter about the models."

Norcross got it mostly right but he missed one big piece of the puzzle that's always been missing. The NHC need a Public Information Officer (PIO). That's not the person that's the head of the NHC, or even a lead forecaster. It has to be someone like Norcross, that understands weather, the media, and how to distill all the NHC gibberish into a three minute update for the media. The NHC has no single point of contact, and that means the media has to figure it out on their own. That's when everything gets mangled. In all my years of emergency management, my PIO was one of the most important members of the command staff. In any major incident, he or she was the only person allowed to talk to the media, including me, when I was the incident commander. He or she would get briefed on the incident and then do a press release that highlighted the important things for citizens to know. The PIO was good at appearing on TV and being able to explain, calmly but forcefully, what were the main points of action we expected from citizens. The Incident Command System evolved over decades of screwing up on major disasters. It works when it's used right. I've never seen any evidence that the NHC even understands ICS or sees the value of a PIO.
1052. 7544
join the cho cho conga line this run m,n,o,p ?
1053. sar2401
Quoting seafarer459:

Political correctness in the digital age. Probably thinks your a lousy speller too.


The strange part is that wasn't censored in the quote of that post. I guess the PC algorithm didn't take that into account. :)
Quoting JLPR2:


Very weak steering, in fact, it seems a high pressure is building to the NW of Leslie.
I believe you are correct.

Every night she goes out on the town for a little fun, works up a sweat, then heads home alone.

Perhaps she's looking for someone to spend the night with, besides that ULL.



Quoting Funication:
Where they all going?




ummmm,,,


1056. guygee
Quoting bappit:

Norcross: "Everybody's a meteorologist today, they look at the models, slice and dice the uncertainty, and the message from the National Hurricane Center gets mangled beyond recognition."

Also: "And... the media has to man up. All of it. Everybody. Hurricane Warnings, storm-surge forecasts, the ability of large circulations to move a lot of water, the entire discussion has to be had over and over in a situation like this. No quick hits, no hitting high points, and no trivializing chatter about the models."
Wrong rant. I am a lot more disappointed that we rely on Indian and European satellites for accurate ocean wind vectors, and we are waiting on a Japanese satellite to regain high-resolution observation of polar ice and snowpack. The US is really falling behind in weather and earth observation platforms, and we need proponents in the media like Norcross to help lobby the pols and rally the public to the cause.
1057. sar2401
Quoting waterskiman:

Obama missed the chair.

Romney..... been there done that


Sorry, but these politicians should stay out of active disaster areas. Every time we had one of these goofballs show up, all work had to stop for a day while the Secret Service investigated us and threw out all the real workers. They add nothing to solving the problem, and actually make things work. Sign some declarations somewhere, even hold up a giant check for a photo op, but stay out of my declared disaster area.
Just a post to say that you should never take any tropical system for granted. Look at what we have experienced here in Louisiana. We will be dealing with the effects of hurricane Isaac for months. Everybody gets hung up on wind speeds, but with Isaac, it's size and surge along with several days of flooding rains has turned southeastern Louisiana into a mess. Thankfully, we have the LSU Tigers, UL Rajin Cajuns, and the Saints playing football now to take it all off our minds at least on the weekends!!!!!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:




ummmm,,,



Only to Die off in the Atlantic.... Well I will say 2 out of the 4 will die off.... and out of those two 1 will be a Major Hurricane and the other will go out to sea as a possible cat1.... Just Saying :o)

Taco :o)
1060. bappit
Quoting sar2401:

Norcross got it mostly right but he missed one big piece of the puzzle that's always been missing. The NHC need a Public Information Officer (PIO). That's not the person that's the head of the NHC, or even a lead forecaster. It has to be someone like Norcross, that understands weather, the media, and how to distill all the NHC gibberish into a three minute update for the media. The NHC has no single point of contact, and that means the media has to figure it out on their own. That's when everything gets mangled. In all my years of emergency management, my PIO was one of the most important members of the command staff. In any major incident, he or she was the only person allowed to talk to the media, including me, when I was the incident commander. He or she would get briefed on the incident and then do a press release that highlighted the important things for citizens to know. The PIO was good at appearing on TV and being able to explain, calmly but forcefully, what were the main points of action we expected from citizens. The Incident Command System evolved over decades of screwing up on major disasters. It works when it's used right. I've never seen any evidence that the NHC even understands ICS or sees the value of a PIO.

NOAA splits responsibilities between the NHC and local NWS offices. I don't think a single point of contact for the media can work for all areas. If you are running a local show, then sure a single point of contact would be good.
Quoting guygee:
Wrong rant. I am a lot more disappointed that we rely on Indian and European satellites for accurate ocean wind vectors, and we are waiting on a Japanese satellite to regain high-resolution observation of polar ice and snowpack. The US is really falling behind in weather and earth observation platforms, and we need proponents in the media like Norcross to help lobby the pols and rally the public to the cause.

If Norcross wants to post about some other topic--like weather satellites--he has plenty of time to do it.
By gee by gingo by crikey, we've got storms coming out of our Azores high looking at some of the long term models.
1062. sar2401
Quoting bappit:

NOAA splits responsibilities between the NHC and local NWS offices. I don't think a single point of contact for the media can work for all areas. If you are running a local show, then sure a single point of contact would be good.


When it's a big hurricane, most of the media looks to the NHC, not the local NWS, for information. In addition, an NHC PIO can help coordinate the message with the local NWS offices. When no one is in charge, that means no one is in charge.
The Canadian model is showing a 1000 mb. low over Tampa Bay:

Perhaps Leslie has found a new dance partner .... ....



1065. VR46L
I understand that this blob making its way to the gulf is mooted by both the GFS and Euro to have some development.. as if they havent had enough last week ..



the euro seems like it wants isaac to revisit the gulf coast. i'm sure myself and florida have had enough of him
Quoting VR46L:
I understand that this blob making its way to the gulf is mooted by both the GFS and Euro to have some development.. as if they havent had enough last week ..




Another thing...that blob is Isaac.
Quoting VR46L:
I understand that this blob making its way to the gulf is mooted by both the GFS and Euro to have some development.. as if they havent had enough last week ..





Seems Isaac is determined to break my wallet completely. Heh.
Also, since when was TomTaylor banned? Went to his blog just now for the weather links and saw it.
1070. VR46L
I was aware its Isaacs Ghost just didnt want to say it ...:(
It's not completely unheard of for a system to regenerate in this manner. Tropical Depression Five tried it in 2010. So did Ivan the Terrible. It's rare, but not unpredecented.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Also, since when was TomTaylor banned? Went to his blog just now for the weather links and saw it.


Apparently he posted a meme in the previous blog topic that didn't go over smoothly with the admin.
Doesn't look like the models want the first trough -- the one over the central US -- to lift it out. Instead it has to wait for a second trough developing over the Pacific northwest to find a means of escape. What happens after the first trough misses it is important. Kinda looks like a Debby setup to me, where it either finds a weakness into Florida, or finds a ridge into the northern Gulf Coast. Another factor is the upper low over the Bahamas. If ex-Isaac becomes deep enough in the vertical to feel the influence of this low, it could act to turn it to the southwest. None of the models are indicating this at the current time, but one must always be aware of these things.

Overall, looking at the models and water vapor/satellite, shear won't be a problem. Dry air will be though. Not an ideal environment for a tropical cyclone, but certainly not the worst I've seen.
Quoting LostTomorrows:


Apparently he posted a meme in the previous blog topic that didn't go over smoothly with the admin.


Ah, gotcha. How unfortunate, but it is what it is.
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's not completely unheard of for a system to regenerate in this manner. Tropical Depression Five tried it in 2010. So did Ivan the Terrible. It's rare, but not unpredecented.


Ivan was beyond bizarre considering it exited into the Atlantic, went south and then back west into the Gulf. That was a great advisory to read, though.
Isaac remnant blob just woke me up here in NWFL. Very heavy rain with light thunder. Much heavier rain than when the kids were out of school last week for the storm!
1077. LargoFl
Quoting HondosGirl:
Isaac remnant blob just woke me up here in NWFL. Very heavy rain with light thunder. Much heavier rain than when the kids were out of school last week for the storm!
good morning,, I guess isaac is going back into the gulf again..gee
1078. LargoFl
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Canadian model is showing a 1000 mb. low over Tampa Bay:

morning GT..are we in for it this week?
1079. LargoFl
1080. LargoFl
1081. LargoFl
1082. LargoFl
Good morning folks...............
1083. LargoFl
1084. LargoFl
Approach Intensity

Model raw / adjusted

00z Euro 927mb / 918mb
00z GFDL 952mb / 947mb
00z HWRF 959mb / 958mb
00z GFS 972mb / 962mb


avg raw: 952mb
avg adj: 946mb


Without Euro:

Avg raw: 961mb
Avg adj: 956mb


terrible inconsistency.
Just as I suspected.

The trough has lifted, and the Bermuda high is building back in.

Now it's a waiting game, and eastern seaboard better watch closely too.


Quoting LostTomorrows:


Apparently he posted a meme in the previous blog topic that didn't go over smoothly with the admin.
It was the meme plus the swearing, I think.

Morning everybody... I'm watching this ULL today, and hoping it does its job with Leslie...
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Canadian model is showing a 1000 mb. low over Tampa Bay:



By the time you adjust for the initialization error of the GFS, it does the same.


One wonders how the GFS is doing so well this year on track, in spite of being terrible at initializing the correct pressure values for storms. I thought track and intensity were supposed to be closely related...
Good morning, all. 77 degrees here is west central Louisiana with a humidity of 94% and a dewpoint of 75. I put the dogs out and it felt like it should be pouring but not a drop to be felt.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, all. 77 degrees here is west central Louisiana with a humidity of 94% and a dewpoint of 75. I put the dogs out and it felt like it should be pouring but not a drop to be felt.


77 with a dewpoint of 77 overcast, clouds 500ft...
Look at this forecast.

Today
97 °F
Chance of a Thunderstorm
20% chance of precipitation
Tonight
75 °F
Chance of T-storms
30% chance of precipitation
Tomorrow
100 | 77 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitation
Thursday
95 | 75 °F
Chance of a Thunderstorm
20% chance of precipitation
Friday
95 | 75 °F
Partly Cloudy
Vostok is at -94f with a forecast low of -105f for Thursday.

Wow. 200f difference between us and them.

126f below freezing.

Even AGW won't melt that ice any time soon.
1093. pottery
Trinidad weather...

Temp 79
Humidity 89
Thunderstorm.......

Woke up to Rumbles and Grumbles at 5:30.
Seems to be quieting down now, but still as a tomb and no rain on me yet.
Morning.
I see Isaac doesn't want to die.
Good morning. I see models converging on a CV development in comming days and move it west as GFS does and Euro more WNW.
I always find it interesting when TWC says it doesn't see Leslie as a threat yet to the US, but shows a cone that says they don't know where she is going to go and part of the cone shows US, and don't mention the models that show a possible to US. I know they want to show only when it will hit the US, but...

Edit: they put it such a way that Leslie won't be hitting the US at all.
Good Morning...One of the ensemble members still shows the BOC disturbance:

228 hrs.



3 days later landfall in Southern Texas:

Quoting sunlinepr:
GFS draws Leslie as a big Cane...




SURF UP!!
1099. ncstorm
Quoting aislinnpaps:
I always find it interesting when TWC says it doesn't see Leslie as a threat yet to the US, but shows a cone that says they don't know where she is going to go and part of the cone shows US, and don't mention the models that show a possible to US. I know they want to show only when it will hit the US, but...

Edit: they put it such a way that Leslie won't be hitting the US at all.


I am watching Good Morning America and they said Leslie model runs are trending west..sounds quite opposite of what TWC is probably saying
Quoting ncstorm:


I am watching Good Morning America and they said Leslie model runs are trending west..sounds quite opposite of what TWC is probably saying


Why don't you quit with that idiocy.

You just faulted them for no reason, and you obviously haven't even watched a recent Tropical Weather Update, else you wouldn't use the word "probably".



If they did something wrong or unprofessional, critique them on that, but you don't even know whether they did or did not do something, and you bashed them anyway.

It's gotten completely ridiculous and distasteful the way TWC gets bashed on this blog, even before the merger, now that they merged, it's just hypocritical anyway.
1101. WxLogic
Good Morning... we got TD#13 soon to be a TS.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Why don't you quit with that idiocy.

You just faulted them for no reason, and you obviously haven't even watched a recent Tropical Weather Update, else you wouldn't use the word "probably".



If they did something wrong or unprofessional, critique them on that, but you don't even know whether they did or did not do something, and you bashed them anyway.

It's gotten completely ridiculous and distasteful the way TWC gets bashed on this blog, even before the merger, now that they merged, it's just hypocritical anyway.


Whoa! ncstorm was responding to what I was saying and I did watch and am still watching TWC. It was not a bashing, just a simple statement of facts!
Good morning everyone, TD13 is getting better organized and Leslie is as well. Also today is my first day back at school.
1104. MahFL
Quoting RTSplayer:


Why don't you quit with that idiocy.

You just faulted them for no reason, and you obviously haven't even watched a recent Tropical Weather Update, else you wouldn't use the word "probably".



If they did something wrong or unprofessional, critique them on that, but you don't even know whether they did or did not do something, and you bashed them anyway.

It's gotten completely ridiculous and distasteful the way TWC gets bashed on this blog, even before the merger, now that they merged, it's just hypocritical anyway.


It was not a merger, TWC Companies bought WU. Also it's not hypocritical to bash TWC if they are still spouting crap. I saw re-run after re-run of Jim Cantore in the height of the storm when they should have had live coverage of what was occuring.
1105. K8eCane
are the models trending west as Good Morning America said?
G'mornin. Blog as dysfucntional as ever! Kinda like our 'cane season so far!
Quoting K8eCane:
are the models trending west as Good Morning America said?

Models have shifted west, but not by a lot.
1108. WxLogic
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin. Blog as dysfucntional as ever! Kinda like our 'cane season so far!


Morning... I guess you can say that. LOL.
1109. MahFL
Isaac's remains are growing and heading SSE to the GOM.....plays JAWS soundtrack..........
1110. K8eCane
Quoting wxchaser97:

Models have shifted west, but not by a lot.


ok thanks! i cant access them too well on this Wii
1111. flcanes
Quoting K8eCane:


ok thanks! i cant access them too well on this Wii

?
1112. WxLogic
Quoting MahFL:
Isaac's remains are growing and heading SSE to the GOM.....plays JAWS soundtrack..........


Should be interesting... even the NAM has a new SFC low developing in the GOM.
Well, I have to leave for school, kids and classroom waiting for me. As to TWC, my personal feeling is they should say it is trending west so that people in the northeast don't just dismiss Leslie. They don't tend to keep a watch for hurricanes the way we do in the south.

Everyone have a great Tuesday.
1114. K8eCane
Quoting flcanes:

?


i dont understand your question.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone, TD13 is getting better organized and Leslie is as well. Also today is my first day back at school.


Here is 13, getting convection to fire over the circulation:



By the way have a great first day in school.
Quoting MahFL:


It was not a merger, TWC Companies bought WU. Also it's not hypocritical to bash TWC if they are still spouting crap. I saw re-run after re-run of Jim Cantore in the height of the storm when they should have had live coverage of what was occuring.


Wait, what exactly do you expect?

Was Jim Cantore supposed to get up and drive to Plaquemines and film the levee breaching in 80mph official sustained winds; probably more like 90 to 95mph unofficially?! Maybe you think he should have drove to Houma and rode out the eye wall for about 24 hours or so. He and his crew nearly got killed in Katrina because they were too close to the action, but I guess that doesn't matter to some people. They have mandatory evacuations for a reason.


Although the media CAN be faulted for having absolutely no post-storm coverage of whatever happened in the area around Houma, because I've still yet to see any of it, but TWC is no more guilty than anyone else.

Heck, not even the local channels are saying anything...Maybe nobody cares unless you live in NOLA or Biloxi or within 15 miles of those cities.

Sad.
Quoting GTcooliebai:


Here is 13, getting convection to fire over the circulation:



By the way have a great first day in school.

Yup, thats what I mean that convection is firing more over the center. Also the TD is getting bigger and should be a TS in the next 24-48hrs if this continues. Thanks, I have a great schedule and this should be a great sophomore year.
If we were to get Michael at 11, how far would his winds go out if 13 stays the same size?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If we were to get Michael at 11, how far would his winds go out if 13 stays the same size?

It can't be that far out as TD13 isn't that big. I just read the 5:00am discussion, I think today could be the day its named.
1121. ncstorm
Quoting RTSplayer:


Why don't you quit with that idiocy.

You just faulted them for no reason, and you obviously haven't even watched a recent Tropical Weather Update, else you wouldn't use the word "probably".



If they did something wrong or unprofessional, critique them on that, but you don't even know whether they did or did not do something, and you bashed them anyway.

It's gotten completely ridiculous and distasteful the way TWC gets bashed on this blog, even before the merger, now that they merged, it's just hypocritical anyway.


no one is bashing TWC..I just stated what GMA said this morning..I dont know why people want to argue early in the morning..LOL..why dont you go back to bed and try it all over again..
You know, I filmed about 4 hours of high definition on the 29th, and I really only got about ten to fifteen minutes that was worth putting on Youtube.


In fact, I regretted using too much of my memory, because I wasn't able to film the record flooding during the next day, because without power I couldn't upload my videos and empty the SD card to start filming again.

I can only hope that someone else down the street filmed the record flooding on Yellow Water Creek so that the appropriate authorities will have good records to examine the drainage and potential levee situation.


Something will need to be done on the north and north west shores of Lake Maurepas, because this amount of storm surge from a category 1 is unacceptable.


Anyway, my point here is gettng good coverage of what's "happening" in a storm is nearly impossible. While trying to film, I quickly discovered that by the time you realize something is happening worth filming, with regards to wind, rain, or debris/damage, it's too late to catch it, because it happens that fast and it's already over.

You basically need multiple cameras running non-stop pointing in at least 2 or 3 directions to catch that sort of stuff consistently.

And if you want to catch levee breaches or important structural damage, tough luck. I found out first hand driving in the thing is stupid, even with only TS force winds, because I got two flat tires from hitting sign debris I couldn't see until it was like 10 feet in front of me.
My forecast(11:00pm last night):


NHC forecast(5:00am this morning):


Besides some small track and intensity differences they are pretty similar.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1007.3mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 3.0 3.1

I think this may encourage an upgrade (to Michael).

Also currently due to its disheveled appearance Leslie's T#'s are lower currently in this set than TD13's.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Finally got some decent cloud cover and some convection over the center.
1127. ncstorm
okay Im off to work..later..



Quoting ncstorm:
okay Im off to work..later..




Bye ncstorm, Leslie will be producing some big waves and swells for sure.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone, TD13 is getting better organized and Leslie is as well. Also today is my first day back at school.
Where you go to school at?.My kids went back to school the 20th.
Quoting K8eCane:


i dont understand your question.
Apparently, the fact that you are accessing the site/internet via a Nintendo Wii is the cause for confusion....
04/1145 UTC 26.9N 43.5W T2.5/2.5 13L -- Atlantic
I can already see bands forming in the gulf from the storm formerly known as Isaac....Will it regenerate?
GOM CMC
Is it wrong I've dismissed Leslie here in D.C?.
Well Isaac is getting interesting .... Something still around and potential Michael is forming... 4 storms later

Stay safe Florida he's a mean machine
Quoting washingtonian115:
Where you go to school at?.My kids went back to school the 20th.

I'm in MI and state law requires public schools to start the day after labor day. As to exactly where I am I won't say but in metro Detroit.
First day back at school from Isaac break
Quoting weatherh98:
Well Isaac is getting interesting .... Something still around and potential Michael is forming... 4 storms later

Stay safe Florida he's a mean machine
Maybe Isaac want to be sure that he will get retire.
Quoting weatherh98:
Well Isaac is getting interesting .... Something still around and potential Michael is forming... 4 storms later

Stay safe Florida he's a mean machine

Isaac, the storm that went right on living. I think we will see Michael today with the increase of convection and organization.
1141. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is it wrong I've dismissed Leslie here in D.C?.


I dont think its wrong to be hopeful that Leslie wont visit you ...Think its Bermuda and Canada problem in the next week but a few extra supplies would not go a miss for the just in case scenario...
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm in MI and state law requires public schools to start the day after labor day. As to exactly where I am I won't say but in metro Detroit.
what's the secret?
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm in MI and state law requires public schools to start the day after labor day. As to exactly where I am I won't say but in metro Detroit.
Btw people do school start at 9am in there? because in here all schools start at or 7:30am.
Quoting weatherh98:
First day back at school from Isaac break

For me its the first day back from summer break. At least I get to start at 8:40 instead of 7:40am like the rest of my classmates due to my independent study in meteorology.
Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe Isaac want to be sure that he will get retire.


He was getting retired for sure.... One giant head ache now its like icing on the cake for him
comeback?.just.showers?
Hmmm...

Maybe still needs some adjustments.

Unofficial Hurricane Severity Index for Isaac: 20.44

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Severity_I ndex

Using the Hurricane Severity Index guidelines and definitions, I unofficially ranked Isaac as being no more than 20.44.

I assumed the maximum size for each of the 3 wind fields that it qualified for, because it really was a very large system.

However, I think it once had a maximum Integrated Kinetic Energy value of 4.1.




This scale may need some adjusting, I think.


Andrew at landfall ranks somewhere between 29 and 33, but not over 33.


Wilma is cheated for maximum over-water intensity, while Camille and Labor Day are cheated slightly, because they were far more intense than the maximum scale.

Labor Day and Wilma were 180kts storms, and should have gotten 36 points from intensity alone, but the scale ends at 25.

Camille was a 165kts storm at landfall and should get 30 points from intensity alone, but it was not very large compared to Katrina, and probably mid grade on size, giving about 41 if the intensity scale went to that height, but they officially rated it as 36, because the intensity points stops at 25, which is exactly 5 points below what I rated it, given existing knowledge.


Wilma on first landfall in Mexico should get 25 points for size and 18.7 for intensity, giving about 43.7 for it's total score at Mexico Landfall. This is higher than any U.S. landfall on record.

Over water, Wilma would officially be close to 50, but weaker than Katrina. Unofficially, Wilma would be close to 60 at peak intensity.

Katrina's max severity over water at peak intensity was very close to a perfect 50, possibly exceeding 50 if the "sized" scale didn't end.

Katrina ranked "only" 36 at landfall, most of this difference is in loss of maximum wind speed.




So anyway, Isaac is 20.44 at landfall.

The system needs some work, but it's probably better than the SS scale...

Super-Typhoon Tip would probably rank in the 70's if both halves of the scoring system kept going up with the same logic, but it would be an automatic 50 at a mere glance even on the real scale...
Quoting wxchaser97:

For me its the first day back from summer break. At least I get to start at 8:40 instead of 7:40am like the rest of my classmates due to my independent study in meteorology.


What! Lemme do tht! Id wanna sit home and blog for an hour
Quoting weatherh98:


He was getting retired for sure.... One giant head ache now its like icing on the cake for him

With all that Isaac has done damage wise, I think he will get retired.
Quoting weatherh98:


What! Lemme do tht! Id wanna sit home and blog for an hour

Hey, that's my plan unless there is major weather happening or I need to finish homework.
1151. Patrap
Birmingham
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

Michael at 11 AM?


04/1145 UTC 26.9N 43.5W T2.5/2.5 13L -- Atlantic
Quoting allancalderini:
Btw people do school start at 9am in there? because in here all schools start at or 7:30am.

Check post 1144 for the answer.

Quoting VR46L:


I dont think its wrong to be hopeful that Leslie wont visit you ...Think its Bermuda and Canada problem in the next week but a few extra supplies would not go a miss for the just in case scenario...

The US should not forget Leslie, but I don't think a direct hit will happen. Bermuda will be staring down the barrel of a hurricane and Canada will get impacts.
Quoting wxchaser97:

With all that Isaac has done damage wise, I think he will get retired.


If he's not I'll run over and do it myself... It's getting retired
Quoting wxchaser97:

Hey, that's my plan unless there is major weather happening or I need to finish homework.


If there were a major weather happening what would you do
1155. icmoore
Quoting weatherh98:
Well Isaac is getting interesting .... Something still around and potential Michael is forming... 4 storms later

Stay safe Florida he's a mean machine


Good morning everyone.
Hey there and welcome back. I am sorry I just started at the bottom of the page and will be reading up. I hope you fared okay through Isaac and what the heck is this I see about a possible Issac reincarnation in the Gulf? Say it ain't so..
1156. Patrap
LESLIE

Night IR to Day RGB
Alright I have to go now, bye everyone. It will be interesting to see if we have Michael and how Leslie is doing when I get back.
I was looking at the water vapor loop for September 4, 2012 located off the central eastern coast of Florida
target="_blank">http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east /gmex/loop-wv.html and saw a fair-sized low pressure with what seems to be rapid rotation and wonder if someone would care to comment on this - I'm guessing it's simply a localized storm but have just never seen anything like it with the size and rotation; I'm still trying to learn the connections with water vapor loops and surface or tropical systems. I'm still guessing here that this has no chance of developing into a tropical depression or even holding up to cross Florida into the GOM. Any replies or comments please use my user name, "wanzewurld" so I can locate replies easily
Quoting Patrap:
Birmingham
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI



Is dat eerrr eyezack?
Quoting weatherh98:


If he's not I'll run over and do it myself... It's getting retired

If there were a major weather happening what would you do

Lol, I'm pretty sure Isaac is getting retired.
Depends on what my teacher who is supervising me says as to if I need to be following it.
Quoting islander101010:
comeback?.just.showers?



do you no how too ues a key board seems like you dont



how about some space in your words




like this come back. Just shower
Quoting icmoore:


Good morning everyone.
Hey there and welcome back. I am sorry I just started at the bottom of the page and will be reading up. I hope you fared okay through Isaac and what the heck is this I see about a possible Issac reincarnation in the Gulf? Say it ain't so..


It is so!

We did well although some neighbors did end up under water...

Tampa may get its hit anyway:)
Quoting wxchaser97:

Lol, I'm pretty sure Isaac is getting retired.
Depends on what my teacher who is supervising me says as to if I need to be following it.


You prolly know more than he/she does

I'm fairly confident there aren't any teachers or students who know more about tropical weather than I do....
1165. Patrap
Quoting weatherh98:


Is dat eerrr eyezack?



Mees tink's so, bra'
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Michael at 11 AM?


04/1145 UTC 26.9N 43.5W T2.5/2.5 13L -- Atlantic




may be
1167. icmoore
Quoting weatherh98:


It is so!

We did well although some neighbors did end up under water...

Tampa may get its hit anyway:)


Sorry about your neighbors but happy for you! Oh, and thanks for my first laugh of the morning. Hey what the heck am I laughing about :)
Quoting Patrap:



Mees tink's so, bra'


*shudders*

Thank God it ain't coming back this way
Quoting icmoore:


Sorry about your neighbors but happy for you! Oh, and thanks for my first laugh of the morning. Hey what the heck am I laughing about :)


Maybe it will loop back around and hit the dems convention would that be ironic or what?!
1170. icmoore
Quoting Patrap:



Mees tink's so, bra'


So what he wants another swim in the Gulf?
1171. VR46L
Quoting weatherh98:


*shudders*

Thank God it ain't coming back this way


You might want to check the Euro 72 hrs ..

Skewl gotta rowl:)
13-5-0:

AL, 13, 2012090412, , BEST, 0, 268N, 435W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1016, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, M

Michael
we have MICHAEL


AL, 13, 2012090412, , BEST, 0, 268N, 435W, 35, 1006, TS,
Would someone please tell or show me how to post weather system inages - Still and animated? As always, please include my user name, wanzewurld in your reply so I may locate your reply more easily. Thank Y'ALL-L-L-L (That's my Southern drawl peeking out.)
13 name storms now
1178. Patrap
Waking up to Mike and Leslie in da Morning?

Al has competition me tinks?
Tampa Bay Ruskin NWS Disco

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
A TROUGH AXIS WITH ORIGINS BACK TO THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC PHASED W/
NRN STREAM STREAM ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE NE GULF THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND
THAT. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY SPUN UP A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST NE OF THE REGION WHILE THE GFS SHEARS THE ENERGY APART AND
KEEPS MORE OF A DISORGANIZED TROUGH. THE NAM 12 SEEMS ON BOARD WITH
THE ECMWF AS IT ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW BY FRI. EITHER
WAY...MOISTURE POOLED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
OFF THE NE GULF LEADING TO INCREASE IN TROPICAL SHRA AND TSTMS FOR
THE WEEKEND...BUT WHICH SOLN PANS OUT WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD CLOSER TO A GFS SOLN WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THE SCT RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. A MUCH STRONGER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS A
LARGE CLOSED LOW SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND THIS WOULD ACTUALLY BRING
THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING.
1180. Patrap
TS Michael/TD-13 Night IR to Day RGB Loop

13 ts of the season has form.
Quoting wanzewurld:
I was looking at the water vapor loop for September 4, 2012 located off the central eastern coast of Florida
target="_blank">http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/e ast /gmex/loop-wv.html and saw a fair-sized low pressure with what seems to be rapid rotation and wonder if someone would care to comment on this - I'm guessing it's simply a localized storm but have just never seen anything like it with the size and rotation; I'm still trying to learn the connections with water vapor loops and surface or tropical systems. I'm still guessing here that this has no chance of developing into a tropical depression or even holding up to cross Florida into the GOM. Any replies or comments please use my user name, "wanzewurld" so I can locate replies easily
That is an upper Level Low pressure- no worries for tropical development in the near future. The low would have to develop at the surface. Can happen over time but unlikely. More concern would be the return of ex Isaac into the gulf from the mainland.
1183. WxLogic
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Michael at 11 AM?


04/1145 UTC 26.9N 43.5W T2.5/2.5 13L -- Atlantic


If so, then we might see a re-number in the next 1 to 2 hours.
and olny SEP 4th
1185. Patrap

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Leslie

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Quoting WxLogic:


If so, then we might see a re-number in the next 1 to 2 hours.




you are vary late its all ready been re number its been TD 13 for 18hrs now its now going too be upgraded
Im starting to think that we're going to exhaust the original naming list.
1188. Grothar
I've done another early blog which I know nobody will read anyway. I see two more systems developing this week. If you want the details go read it.

Models have shifted quite a bit west this morning.



Also, look at what is coming into the Gulf.



1189. Patrap
That is the 06Z from earlier Gro..


jus saying'

See post 1185 for the current 12Z runs for Leslie
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Im starting to think that we're going to exhaust the original naming list.



Is this still a busted hurricane season lol
Quoting WxLogic:


If so, then we might see a re-number in the next 1 to 2 hours.


As Nea posted the 12z Best Track earlier,it also upgrades to TS Michael,so the numbers keep adding up for the season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Im starting to think that we're going to exhaust the original naming list.
Me too if get N,O,P,R in September and S,T,V in Octuber and maybe W in November we will have finish this list.
1193. Grothar
The early EMCWF has Leslie much closer west than before.
and quite strong. I think the NHC has a pretty good handle on her now.




1194. Patrap
LESLIE ShortWave IR Loop dee Loop

1195. Patrap
Remember, it is the Atlantic Mayan 2012 Swirl-a-palooza after all.

There are now 107 day's until the 2012 Winter Solstice


1196. K8eCane
Quoting Grothar:
I've done another early blog which I know nobody will read anyway. I see two more systems developing this week. If you want the details go read it.

Models have shifted quite a bit west this morning.



Also, look at what is coming into the Gulf.



i will definitely read your blog. you give good, accurate info. and its easy to get you to appear.
1197. Michfan
Morning everyone. Looks like things are ramping up.
Quoting K8eCane:


i will definitely read your blog. you give good, accurate info. and its easy to get you to appear.


Grothar has a blog?
1199. Patrap
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 031545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON SEPTEMBER 03 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-107

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 05/1800Z FIX
MISSION INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 27.0N 63.3W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
1200. Patrap
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Grothar has a blog?


Indeed, but it takes him a while to Chisel it out of the Bedrock,so be patient on updates.

: )
1201. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
That is the 00Z from Last evening 7pm CDT Gro..


jus saying'

See post 1185 for the current 12Z runs for Leslie


I just woke up, what do you want at this hour, Hemingway? :) It looks like 12z to me.
1202. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Grothar has a blog?


Thanks, you twit.
1203. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


I just woke up, what do you want at this hour, Hemingway? :) It looks like 12z to me.


Dunno..my eyes are kinda weepish this am as well.

Nola Roux's Pups have tripled in size since last Tuesday night when Isaac spurred her delivery.

All are fine though.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Grothar has a blog?

Crikey mate!!!
1205. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:


Indeed, but it takes him a while to Chisel it out of the Bedrock,so be patient on updates.

: )


I use marble for the important updates. (Cute puppies by the way.)
Quoting Grothar:


I just woke up, what do you want at this hour, Hemingway? :) It looks like 12z to me.

A nice hot cuppa tea and maybe a scone with strawberry jam and cream will do nicely at this time of night.
1207. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


I use marble for the important updates. (Cute puppies by the way.)


Marble is a fine medium fo sho'.

I have some Jambalaya MRE's from the La. National Guard for yas as well.
1208. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


As Nea posted the 12z Best Track earlier,it also upgrades to TS Michael,so the numbers keep adding up for the season.


If it is any consolation, there are some long range models not posted yet, that show two more systems coming up. I have them in my blog.
Quoting Patrap:


Marble is a fine medium fo sho'.

I have some Jambalaya MRE's from the La. National Guard for yas as well.

That's about the only ones worth eating....
1210. WxLogic
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


As Nea posted the 12z Best Track earlier,it also upgrades to TS Michael,so the numbers keep adding up for the season.


lol yeah... I stepped away and come back to Michael. :)
Crikey, have a look at this......

first one of the new fire season.

Total Fire Ban Advice for New South Wales
Issued at 4:13 pm EST on Tuesday 4 September 2012.

The NSW Rural Fire Service has totally banned the lighting of fires for Wednesday 05 September for the Central Ranges, North Western, Upper Central West Plains, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Ranges, Monaro Alpine, Far South Coast, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Greater Sydney Region, Greater Hunter and Far Western Total Fire Ban Districts.

For further information regarding Fire Bans and other Fire Restrictions contact The NSW Rural Fire Service on 1800 679 737 or visit http://www.bushfire.nsw.gov.au/


_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

Crikey, look at the peak winds expected with this front.

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the Metropolitan, Hunter, Illawarra, South Coast, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, Central West Slopes & Plains, South West Slopes, Riverina, Upper Western, Lower Western, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts
Issued at 10:38 pm EST on Tuesday 4 September 2012.
Strengthening north to northwesterly winds during Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is slowly moving east maintaining a ridge over northeastern New South Wales. As the ridge weakens a cold front preceded by warm, strong and gusty northwesterly winds will move through the state during Wednesday and Thursday, followed by another front on Friday. Behind the second front another high is expected to move near the Bight gradually extending a ridge across the state.

Damaging winds around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast to develop in Lower Western, Upper Western and Alpine districts Wednesday morning and extend to the Illawarra, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Riverina, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts and parts of the Metropolitan, Hunter, South Coast and Central West Slopes & Plains forecast districts Wednesday afternoon and evening. Alpine Peaks may experience winds around 90 km/h with peak gusts around 150 km/h.



This low is stronger that TD13 and TS Leslie. WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1212. Grothar
Quoting AussieStorm:

A nice hot cuppa tea and maybe a scone with strawberry jam and cream will do nicely at this time of night.


We may need more than that if these models of other systems come to fruition. Leslie looks like she wants to be a large storm. If that big anti-cyclone moves over her, it should be something to watch.

Even the FIM8 shows a very large system.

Quoting Grothar:


We may need more than that if these models of other systems come to fruition. Leslie looks like she wants to be a large storm. If that big anti-cyclone moves over her, it should be something to watch.

Even the FIM8 shows a very large system.



Okay, I'll put the kettle on, you fix up the scones, I'll have 2.
Quoting WxLogic:


lol yeah... I stepped away and come back to Michael. :)



You are. So way way behind this AM
1215. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
730 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 725 AM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS INDICATED OVER THE WARNED
AREA AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUTLEDGE... PETREY... LUVERNE...
I65 AND AL 185... I65 AND AL 10... GREENVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER CROSSES A ROAD. TURN AROUND - DON'T DROWN!

NEVER TRY TO CROSS OR PLAY IN AN URBAN SPILLWAY OR FLOWING CREEK...
EVEN A SMALL ONE. URBAN FLASH FLOODING IS A MAJOR KILLER.
Making your words last night come true this morning Grothar.
Quoting Grothar:
I've done another early blog which I know nobody will read anyway. I see two more systems developing this week. If you want the details go read it.

Models have shifted quite a bit west this morning.



Also, look at what is coming into the Gulf.


1217. Patrap
Doc Masters should have a updated entry for us soon I feel.

1218. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
722 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN ALABAMA...
WESTERN AUTAUGA COUNTY IN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 720 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT TWO
TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE PAST TWO
HOURS. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT ONE TO
TWO HOURS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MARION...SELMA...SELMONT-WEST SELMONT...VALLEY GRANDE...
AUTAUGAVILLE...BENTON......LOWNDESBORO...AND WHITE HALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
1219. Patrap
Birmingham
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

1220. LargoFl
Nam at 84 hours,interesting weekend for sure tampa bay
Looks like a trough attatched to issac along with some energy in the mid levels heading south into the gom will create a large sized cut off mlc that may work down to the surface as it gets ull support from the ULL over sefl via divergence aloft.
1222. Patrap
Braithwaite father and son rescue about 120 from Hurricane Isaac's floodwaters
Published: Sunday, September 02, 2012, 9:30 PM


On Tuesday night, Isaac's winds whipping and floodwaters high, a Braithwaite father and son kept watch over the minimal levee between eastern Plaquemines Parish and the Gulf of Mexico. As midnight hit, Jesse Shaffer Sr. and Jr. decided one would rest for an hour while the other sat on the levee, locally known as the "wall." Then they would switch, hour by hour, charting the water's rise. But at 12:10 a.m. Wednesday, relatives called to say the water already was rushing over the wall several miles south of their location.

On the northern end of Braithwaite, "it was coming up 6 inches every 10 minutes," Shaffer Jr. said.
Water quickly flowed into lawns and down streets in eastern Plaquemines Parish. Then, it seeped into first floors. Residents who had remained in their homes soon climbed stairs with possessions in tow. As the water rose further, many climbed again, to attics and roofs.
Eventually, they had climbed as high as they could. They flailed their arms and screamed.

With official emergency crews waiting for the winds to subside and the sun to rise, no one responded to their cry, except the Shaffers, who are credited with helping to save about 120 lives.
They rescued a 6-month-old baby and a 70-year-old man. They chopped through roof ventilation systems to gain entry. Some residents swam to them. The Schaffers discovered others fragilely bobbing in the currents, clutching debris that floated 10 to 15 feet above asphalt streets.

And whereas Wednesday morning everyone scrambled with all their might to exit, residents now desperately want to return. They want to survey the lake that once was home, and determine what remains of their material lives.
So as Hurricane Isaac moved on, the Shaffers have taken on a new community role: They are guiding residents back.
Many returning residents said this weekend that they will no longer rebuild within Plaquemines' walls. They said, instead, they will move a few miles north to St. Bernard Parish's protected enclave.

Cut off from the world

Eastern Plaquemines residents call their insubstantial 8- to 9-foot levee the "wall." It's supposed to protect eastern Plaquemines from Braithwaite to White Ditch, but it does not meet federal standards and leaves residents vulnerable when storms approach.
The wall is also what they call the mammoth new 26- to 32-foot federal levee system that cuts across the St. Bernard and eastern Plaquemines Parish line, protecting St. Bernard from waters to the south.
Eastern Plaquemines has just one parish border: To the south, east and west is Mother Nature, either the Mississippi River or the unbridled Gulf of Mexico.

When a massive storm is set to hit, the 20-foot-tall levee gate on Braithwaite's northern border shutters, removing easy entry for eastern Plaquemines residents to the walled-off world of safety. By the time the 8-foot parish wall alongside the Gulf began overtopping Wednesday morning, most residents who lived behind it and could flee had done so. Shaffer and son observed the caravan of cars racing into St. Bernard. Eastern Plaquemines had only about 2,000 inhabitants in 700 homes, and while most already had evacuated before the gate closed, the remaining hundreds crossed the border by riding along the levee itself as the actual road was blocked by that solid 20-foot gate.

"We had watched the cars coming through, and the surge coming over the levee kept getting stronger and stronger. And those cars had to drive through the surge coming over like a waterfall. It was crazy," the younger Shaffer said. "There was a lot of people that didn't make it. They didn't have cars there, so ..."
Helping people reach the wall
The spontaneous rescue effort began about 4 a.m. Wednesday with Jesse Shaffer Sr., 53, searching the east bank with his brother-in-law, Lanny Lafrance, 52. That was about seven hours before any other rescue team arrived.

"I had some friends calling me that were stuck. We had to get to them, and the Sheriff's Office was on the other side of the river ... and the water came up so quick," Shaffer Sr. said.
Before dawn, the men already had scooped up eight people, including two floating on a spare tire and a couple with a baby.

"This man here, Jesse, I called him and said my son and grandson were trapped, and he said 'I'm on my way,'" said Mary Williams, 66, who couldn't enter her home on Saturday because the water still was too high. "Him, he needs to go to the President. He needs to be a national hero."
At the break of dawn Wednesday, Shaffer Sr. rescued her son, Richard Clark, along with several others trapped on the second floor of his Braithwaite home. Clark said Shaffer's boat "was the first one we seen that morning." He said he had called the Coast Guard two hours earlier but officials had told him the winds were too strong to stage a rescue.
"We didn't know at the time if we would drown or not," Clark said.

With winds still gusting at near-hurricane force, Shaffer Sr. pulled up to Clark's second-floor window in his Carolina skiff.
Until the sun rose, Shaffer Sr. wouldn't let his 25-year-old son join him on the rescue mission. He was protective of his son.
At least in the light, you can find a tree to grab on to if the boat goes under, the father said.
Shaffer Sr., a former cabinet maker, current shrimp trawler and commissioned deputy sheriff, knew his community well enough to navigate it in pitch dark, in a boat, with 80 mph winds and fierce currents.
While he waited to join his father on the boat, Shaffer Jr. used his youthful instincts.
"I put it on Facebook. I said, 'Message me, text message me.' By the end of the day, I had 80 texts... addresses, locations of more individuals who had to be rescued," he said.

Shaffer Jr., a volunteer firefighter, emergency medical technician and nurse, vividly recalls his first rescue.
"We was heading south on Highway 39, past this house that was a trailer home and there was five people on there and they were screaming, they were just screaming like crazy," he said.
"They were so relieved to see us. They were spinning around. They were screaming the whole time. By the time we pulled to their roof, they had about that much, that much leeway before the entire house was engulfed with water," he said, holding his hands a few inches apart.

1224. Patrap
1225. Grothar
Quoting AussieStorm:


Okay, I'll put the kettle on, you fix up the scones, I'll have 2.


I still eat scones. Picked up the habit years ago.
1226. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Looks like it's moving south, Geoff.
1227. WxLogic
As of 12Z... 500MB VORT from Isaac's remnants continue to move S/SE towards the GOM:

1228. LargoFl
GFS at 111 hours, slower than Nam near Tampa bay........
1229. Grothar
Quoting fireflymom:
Making your words last night come true this morning Grothar.



And I thought you just read my jokes. :)
1230. WxLogic
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Quite a train.
1231. MahFL
Hmm, all those bands of clouds in the northern GOM sure look like bands of a tropical system.....
1232. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
Birmingham
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range 248 NMI



I'm sick and tired of Alabama getting all the Rain :P
1234. LargoFl
Clean out your gutters..whew heavy rain coming.......
Haven't been on blog since last Wednesday, have no insight on what Leslie has been doing other than it's supposed to sit and spin all week out there. Stopped hearing news outta LA, but caught some brief stories on news about crews draining water by deliberate breach somewhere.
1236. Patrap
Note the swirl in the Mid Gulf at 25 N



Quoting Grothar:


Looks like it's moving south, Geoff.


Yes sir. It's going to be a very interesting week.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Im starting to think that we're going to exhaust the original naming list.
I'll be able to reuse my 'Team Zeta!' t-shirt? :)

In other questions, for anyone...

I've been watching the storm system over Alabama - you know, trying to shift it more East by shear force of will and all that.

I noticed that many of the bursts of convection, storm cells, and rain originate at the same rough point before "expanding" (on radar at least, for lack of a better term) and moving SE then ESE. Right now that point is pretty stationary (on radar) northish of Tuscaloosa and westish of Birmingham.

Is there a term for that type of "convective birth point"? Really not sure what to call it and I'd like to read up on the process and forces involved.
1239. K8eCane
Quoting LargoFl:
Clean out your gutters..whew heavy rain coming.......


wow...like u really need more rain lol
1240. LargoFl
1241. Patrap
Quoting RitaEvac:
Haven't been on blog since last Wednesday



My Deepest Sympathies.....

I would give the whole rundown on what you missed, but I need to get back to school stuff :'(

Leslie:
1243. LargoFl
Quoting K8eCane:


wow...like u really need more rain lol
I am just hoping this doesnt reach down into south east florida,they had alot of flooding down there.
Quoting Grothar:


I still eat scones. Picked up the habit years ago.

I make my own.
1245. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Doc Masters should have a updated entry for us soon I feel.



It should be an interesting one today. How is the power situation there. I heard a lot of people don't have power yet.
Quoting Grothar:


We may need more than that if these models of other systems come to fruition. Leslie looks like she wants to be a large storm. If that big anti-cyclone moves over her, it should be something to watch.

Even the FIM8 shows a very large system.


That is a massive system... will create massive swells and beach erosion all up and down the eastern seaboard.
1247. LargoFl
oh man look whats coming....................
1248. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


It should be an interesting one today. How is the power situation there. I heard a lot of people don't have power yet.


Got power back here Uptown round 4 pm Saturday I think it was.

Net and Phone with Cox Cable came back fully yesterday.

Statewide, Isaac power outages drop to 6 percent, PSC says
Published: Monday, September 03
1249. Grothar
Quoting K8eCane:


i will definitely read your blog. you give good, accurate info. and its easy to get you to appear.


Thanks, Katie.
1250. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:


I still eat scones. Picked up the habit years ago.

I love good scones, but it is rather difficult to find good (authentic) ones here. This may sound like blasphemy, but I actually like the ones at Starbucks (the petite vanilla ones, when warmed up). That said.. they are nothing compared to authentic ones.
Hurricane Isaac once again unearths Alabama shipwreck




Visitors are once again flocking to the Alabama coast to view a 150-foot mystery ship that is uncovered every few years when a hurricane tears through the area.

Fox10TV.com reports Hurricane Isaac has uncovered the remains of the ship, which is thought to be an early 20th century vessel named The Rachael that ran aground, in Gulf Shores, Alabama.

The station reports that according to the Alabama Historical Commission, the ship is believed to have ran into rough waters while carrying timber in 1930. Archeologist Amanda Hill tells the station that according to interviews with witnesses, the ship was looted of its cargo and set on fire.

The ship was last seen after Hurricane Ike in 2008, though it had been seen many times prior. It was originally believed to date back to the Civil War, but those rumors were laid to rest after it was studied in 2008 and found to have many details that date closer to the early 20th century. The Rachael is believed to have been built in 1919.

Also in 2008, the Alabama Historical Commission considered digging up the remains and moving them to a museum. However, since the remains are on private property, the property owners would be forced to foot the bill for the excavation.

1253. Patrap
Uptown NOLA Isaac Images, post Storm, Home damage, and other..


























Morning all, the ECMWF continues to want to bomb Leslie out into a very powerful major hurricane, the GFS is continuing to also show the development of Leslie into a major, same With the CMC and UKMET. The ECMWF/CMC duo also show that part of what appears energy associated with Isaac and a trough could develop into a system in the gulf. Active times continue.
1255. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:


Got power back here Uptown round 4 pm Saturday I think it was.

Net and Phone with Cox Cable came back fully yesterday.

Statewide, Isaac power outages drop to 6 percent, PSC says
Published: Monday, September 03


That's quite a stretch, surprised it took that long
Quoting Patrap:
Uptown NOLA Isaac Images, post Storm, Home damage, and other..



























The house got VERY lucky with the direction the tree fell!
1258. LargoFl
..watch and see how it explodes in size
Hey pat, nice pictures. Defiantly could say that Isaac willl be one to remember for you guys for a long time. Hearing that damage estimates from Isaac are now estimated with insurance claims to be around 3 billion.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all, the ECMWF continues to want to bomb Leslie out into a very powerful major hurricane, the GFS is continuing to also show the development of Leslie into a major, same With the CMC and UKMET. The ECMWF/CMC duo also show that part of what appears energy associated with Isaac and a trough could develop into a system in the gulf. Active times continue.



And we got the 13 name storm this am
Any Cape Verde systems in the horizon that we need to worry about?
1263. LargoFl
This is what the front that's going to hit Sydney dumped on Perth...







1265. LargoFl
...looks like Leslie absorbs isaac's moisture at the end of this run
Interesting facts I came up with on the Hurricane Severity Index.


SS cat - Min HSI - Max HSI

TS - 2.36* - 11.55 (*used 35kts and 64kts)
1 - 7.69 - 22.65 (65 and 83kts)
2 - 11.84 - 30.24 (84 and 96kts)
3 - 14.45 - 39.19 (97 and 113kts)
4 - 18.44 - 44.65 (114 and 133kts)
5 - 23.90 - 50 (134 and 150kts Max is flawed)


The minimum on Cat 2 through 5 may need to be adjusted upward by 4 points, as it's inconceivable that such a storm would not score maximum in the 35kt's size range and at least half in the next range.

Still, the scale DOES reflect that notion that "weaker" SS scale storms can in fact be more destructive.

On this scale, the weakest possible category 4 (think Charley, but one-sided,) is actually weaker than the strongest possible category 1.

Meanwhile cat 5 Andrew definitely ranks weaker than the maximum severity category 3 storm, explaining very well why Katrina was so much worse than any of Andrew's landfalls. Again, Andrew's Florida landfall ranks somewhere between 29 and 33, on the bottom end of Category 5, and less than the top end of cat 3. This also makes sense because the two storms had similar central pressures at landfall.
Quoting TampaSpin:

TS, analyze this please....

Thanks.
SAB and TAFB as well as the ADT all show 13L at 2.5, or TS strength. Expect an upgrade to TS Michael at 11am.
Australia emerges from coldest winter nights in 30 years.

Those shivering through the winter nights this year can take comfort in knowing they were not alone – Australia has just emerged from its coldest overnight minimum temperatures on average across the country in 30 years.

What is perhaps just as significant is that this year also saw the third coldest over overnight minimums on record with Australia recording an average minimum of-0.91˚C.

Tasmania was the only state to have warmer than average minimum temperatures this year, with a minima average of 0.37˚C.

One region to keenly feel the cold was the Northern Territory, which shivered through its coldest minimum temperature average on record, while South Australia rugged up under its seventh coolest.

Elsewhere, Western Australia saw its lowest minimum temperatures since 1976 averaging -0.75˚C, while New South Wales averaged a minima of -0.51˚C through winter.

These bitterly cold temperatures are at least partly due to emerging El Niño conditions, which typically brings reduced rainfall. The lack of cloud cover leads to daytime heating rapidly escaping resulting in a dramatic drop in overnight minimum temperatures.

“Persistent high-pressure systems also resulted in above average day time maximums with the overall national average maximum temperature around 0.4C above the long term seasonal average,” says Felim Hanniffy, Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.
So Michael already?
1271. Patrap
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hey pat, nice pictures. Defiantly could say that Isaac willl be one to remember for you guys for a long time. Hearing that damage estimates from Isaac are now estimated with insurance claims to be around 3 billion.


Isaac was very different,as having a East wind for 26 Hours was just plain wrong in my sperience.
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is what the front that's going to hit Sydney dumped on Perth...








That looks like sleet. (please send some to North America... I'm done with summer)
Quoting Neapolitan:
13-5-0:

AL, 13, 2012090412, , BEST, 0, 268N, 435W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1016, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, M

Michael


Didnt see that, so yup, we have TS Michael.
September looks to remain active, while the overall steering pattern continues to favor recurves which is great news.
Earls from 2010 all over again...
Quoting TomballTXPride:
So Michael already?



Yep
Who is next after Michael?
Isaac provided much needed rain to the heartland!
Drought buster?
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Who is next after Michael?

Nadine
Quoting jeffs713:

That looks like sleet. (please send some to North America... I'm done with summer)

I'm very much looking forward to our upcoming summer. bring on the 100+ days. I love them. Not had them in since summer 2009.
1282. Patrap
Quoting jeffs713:

Nadine


Ahh, a Chuck Berry tune.
1283. VR46L
Is the Ghost of Isaac returning to the scene of the crime?

Quoting TomballTXPride:
September looks to remain active, while the overall steering pattern continues to favor recurves which is great news.



Actually from what we have seen the overall pattern favors landfalls, ie Isaac, Ernesto, ect. Suspect we will see another system like that before years out. This is due the abundance of dry air in the Atlantic, causing storms to go more westward.
The designation of TS Michael makes 2012 the third most active AHS so far.
The consequences for what remains of Isaac re-entering the mix in the GOM could change things for what Leslie might feel and do, downstream.

Any speculation here, as to what, if say ... he redeveloped in any significant way?

My guess is that it would dissolve the ULL sitting off the East Coast, but that's as far as my mind takes it.
Jeff how much rain you get Saturday? I picked up an inch, wasn't expecting that either. Within the same city I live in got up to 3 inches only 1-3 miles from me, seems to be the norm with more rain always somewhere else even if it's a mile away literally.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SAB and TAFB as well as the ADT all show 13L at 2.5, or TS strength. Expect an upgrade to TS Michael at 11am.

I don't agree with that, as TD13 is partially exposed, and WAAAAAAY out there. But... what do I know?
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT TUE 04 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-108


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
AT 06/1800Z NEAR 27.0N 62.8W.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Jeff how much rain you get Saturday? I picked up an inch, wasn't expecting that either. Within the same city I live in got up to 3 inches only 1-3 miles from me, seems to be the norm with more rain always somewhere else even if it's a mile away literally.

I'm guessing I picked up about 2/3 of an inch. Both of the PWS nearest to me either were missed by the storm that hit my house (it was tiny, but rather intense), or weren't online Saturday. DW Hooks airport picked up 1.18", but it got one cell that just barely missed my house. In any case, it was enough that I don't have to water this week. :)
Quoting jeffs713:

I don't agree with that, as TD13 is partially exposed, and WAAAAAAY out there. But... what do I know?


Exposed COC is not usually a hindrance for an upgrade as long as the convection is somewhat close to the COC, and location is never a reason to not upgrade. Per ATCF, unless the NHC changes it's mind, we have Michael.
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is what the front that's going to hit Sydney dumped on Perth...







Is that unusual?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Exposed COC is not usually a hindrance for an upgrade as long as the convection is somewhat close to the COC, and location is never a reason to not upgrade. Per ATCF, unless the NHC changes it's mind, we have Michael.

Yep. I will admit, I was kinda hoping to keep the routine of this year with all of the male storms being more intense (with the exception of Alberto).
Quoting lobdelse81:
Any Cape Verde systems in the horizon that we need to worry about?
Another week there may be something to track.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SAB and TAFB as well as the ADT all show 13L at 2.5, or TS strength. Expect an upgrade to TS Michael at 11am.

What are Leslie's number.
T2.5/3.5 12L LESLIE
T2.5/2.5 13L NONAME
Quoting jeffs713:

But... what do I know?


Does my avatar apply to you as well?

Tropical Thunderstorm Michael


Hey, it did re-cover its COC and has a nice Thunderstorm... i mean CDO, over the center

Quoting jeffs713:

Yep. I will admit, I was kinda hoping to keep the routine of this year with all of the male storms being more intense (with the exception of Alberto).


Who knows, Kirk was also a small system that was only predicted to be a moderate TS at best.
So as you can see, I'm interested in alternative ranking systems for the severity of storms, which are easy enough to calculate so that meteorologists can communicate the destructive potential to the audience, so that they can make better decisions.


Current practices are to pick 2 or 3 analog SS scale rated storms and compare them to the expected landfall. With the occasional mentioning of "well this one is bigger in area, so it might be a little worse".

I think that doesn't go far enough.

I think they should pick 2 or 3 analogs from each of 3 rating systems for expected landfall rating:

Predicted SS category to maintain continuity.
Predicted IKE value at landfall.
Predicted HSI value at landfall.

Pick 2 or 3 analogs from each ranking system, with a maximum of 1 overlapping storm across ranking systems.

Example, since Katrina is a classic example of where no one ranking system is sufficient, you could use Katrina's landfall as an analog in all 3 ranking systems during a forecast, but you can't use any more overlaps. This would allow 2 additional analogs from each ranking system, which cannot overlap.


The benefits of this would be the ability to better select analog storms, the public does not necessarily need to know how they were selected, but it would help to go ahead and tell them.


For example, if you tell somebody Katrina landfall was a 36, Andrew landfall was no higher than 33, and "Storm X" is forecast to make landfall as approximately a 32, then everybody knows to evacuate, regardless of it's exact SS ranking.

Whereas if you say, "Well, it'll make landfall as a 115mph cat 3," lots of people will just ride it out, as was even the case with Rita and Katrina (ironically).
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm guessing I picked up about 2/3 of an inch. Both of the PWS nearest to me either were missed by the storm that hit my house (it was tiny, but rather intense), or weren't online Saturday. DW Hooks airport picked up 1.18", but it got one cell that just barely missed my house. In any case, it was enough that I don't have to water this week. :)


Was down in Galveston when storms rolled in Saturday on the seawall. Was at the Spot eating and watched that white draped curtain (rain shaft) come in over the water, was cool seeing it.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Is that unusual?

Late winter/early spring strong fronts are common. Changing of the seasons can bring big changes.
1301. yqt1001
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Who knows, Kirk was also a small system that was only predicted to be a moderate TS at best.


From the discussion:

THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT AN EASY PREDICTION AS
IT IS VERY CLOSE TO SOME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THAT THIS SHEAR WILL
STAY AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER
WARM WATERS.
1302. GetReal



T-storm activity coverage and intensity on the increase, in NW Florida and the adjacent coastal waters, as the remnants of Isaac make a run towards the GOM. There is still a hint of a cyclonic twist, and this maybe of some interest 36 hours from now.
Sorry for double posting, but I thought this was important enough for a new page, since I got screwed by the paging system.


So as you can see, I'm interested in alternative ranking systems for the severity of storms, which are easy enough to calculate so that meteorologists can communicate the destructive potential to the audience, so that they can make better decisions.


Current practices are to pick 2 or 3 analog SS scale rated storms and compare them to the expected landfall. With the occasional mentioning of "well this one is bigger in area, so it might be a little worse".

I think that doesn't go far enough.

I think they should pick 2 or 3 analogs from each of 3 rating systems for expected landfall rating:

Predicted SS category to maintain continuity.
Predicted IKE value at landfall.
Predicted HSI value at landfall.

Pick 2 or 3 analogs from each ranking system, with a maximum of 1 overlapping storm across ranking systems.

Example, since Katrina is a classic example of where no one ranking system is sufficient, you could use Katrina's landfall as an analog in all 3 ranking systems during a forecast, but you can't use any more overlaps. This would allow 2 additional analogs from each ranking system, which cannot overlap.


The benefits of this would be the ability to better select analog storms, the public does not necessarily need to know how they were selected, but it would help to go ahead and tell them.


For example, if you tell somebody Katrina landfall was a 36, Andrew landfall was no higher than 33, and "Storm X" is forecast to make landfall as approximately a 32, then everybody knows to evacuate, regardless of it's exact SS ranking.

Whereas if you say, "Well, it'll make landfall as a 115mph cat 3," lots of people will just ride it out, as was even the case with Rita and Katrina (ironically).
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all, the ECMWF continues to want to bomb Leslie out into a very powerful major hurricane, the GFS is continuing to also show the development of Leslie into a major, same With the CMC and UKMET. The ECMWF/CMC duo also show that part of what appears energy associated with Isaac and a trough could develop into a system in the gulf. Active times continue.


Dont forget the possible CV development that the models also develop.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Crikey, have a look at this......

first one of the new fire season.



The next cold front approaching SW Australia looks pretty nasty too. You've got some big snakes on the southern Jet Rossby wave.
1307. WxLogic
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Will we see a yellow circle in the NE Gulf at the 11:00 a.m. update?


If it were to be the case (in the short term)... I would expect one at 2AM ET at the earliest. Since around this time is when I would expect most of the Mid/Low level energy from the remnants of Isaac to be in the N/NE GOM.
1308. VR46L
leslie looks rather top heavy yet part naked

Quoting Progster:


The next cold front approaching SW Australia looks pretty nasty too. You've got some big snakes on the southern Jet Rossby wave.

The next one is going to bring very cold air behind it but it wont last long with a big as high setting in pretty quickly.
Quoting AussieStorm:

The next one is going to bring very cold air behind it but it wont last long with a big as high setting in pretty quickly.


Has snow ever been reported at Perth?
From US National Weather Service Miami Florida on FB
Another round of heavy rainfall with some strong to even severe thunderstorms will be possible today...especially over the interior and east coast areas this afternoon/evening.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Who knows, Kirk was also a small system that was only predicted to be a moderate TS at best.

Yeah, but 13L is really close to an area of higher shear (to the SE, per CIMSS), and dry air (to the west). With its size, it will be highly sensitive to both shear and dry air - and the mid-level shear doesn't look very favorable either.

I think the NHC forecast is decent, so I wouldn't expect anything beyond a low-level TS, at best.
That ol' Euro had Isaac coming to central Gulf and we had to ignore it as it was an outlier. But in the end it was dead on the whole time. From east coast of Florida, to down the spine of Florida, to west coast of Florida, to East Gulf and panhandle of Florida, to Mobile, all the way west to NOLA impact and communities south taking the brunt in LA.
1314. 7544
morning all its going to be fun to see if issaac could make a comeback once he hits the gulf and what size he will become will he get his name back if he did form again tia
Quoting VR46L:
leslie looks rather top heavy yet part naked


I see the NHC have upped their 120hr forecast intensity from 100mph to 105mph. Up-welling anyone???

DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF
LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY
FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
Quoting jeffs713:

Yeah, but 13L is really close to an area of higher shear (to the SE, per CIMSS), and dry air (to the west). With its size, it will be highly sensitive to both shear and dry air - and the mid-level shear doesn't look very favorable either.

I think the NHC forecast is decent, so I wouldn't expect anything beyond a low-level TS, at best.

Kirk was close to high wind shear and dry air as well. Here is the first intensity forecast for Kirk by the NHC:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 23.8N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 24.1N 45.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 24.3N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 24.6N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 25.3N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 27.5N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 32.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 40.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
Quoting RTSplayer:
I think that doesn't go far enough.

I think they should pick 2 or 3 analogs from each of 3 rating systems for expected landfall rating:

Predicted SS category to maintain continuity.
Predicted IKE value at landfall.
Predicted HSI value at landfall.

Pick 2 or 3 analogs from each ranking system, with a maximum of 1 overlapping storm across ranking systems.



The HSI is close to useless for ordinary people. It is a measure of financial impact for the insurance industry and a measure of assistance needed for government and non-government agencies. Ordinary folks, those who need to prepare and evacuate, don't really care if someone else 200 miles away is also impacted. They care about maximum potential severity at their location.
Quoting PuntaGordaPete:


The HSI is close to useless for ordinary people. It is a measure of financial impact for the insurance industry and a measure of assistance needed for government and non-government agencies. Ordinary folks, those who need to prepare and evacuate, don't really care if someone else 200 miles away is also impacted. They care about maximum potential severity at their location.




How about a two number system classification. Isaac was a Cat 1 wind wise but a cat 3 surge wise, so that would make it a Cat 1.S3

Ike was a Cat 2 on landfall but had a surge of a Cat 4, so that would make it a Cat 2.S4

Irene on the other had was a Cat 1 on landfall and only brought minimal surge so that would make it a Cat 1.S1

Just a few more thoughts
At the moment, CIMSS puts both Leslie and Michael as tropical storms of T2.7, or 39kts. With this one, minor, inconsequential difference: the wind radii for Leslie are at 140km. For Michael? 30km.

Never been a better illustration as to why our current classification method stinks. Saffir-Simpson shows no difference, but these two storms couldn't be more dissimilar.
1320. Thrawst
Its amazing how the names go by... Could be at the greek by the end!
We have eight more names between the most active month of the hurricane season that usually breeds 4-6 named storms, a slightly less active month that usually breeds 2-4 named storms, and a quiet month that usually breads 1-2 named storms.
Quoting PuntaGordaPete:


The HSI is close to useless for ordinary people. It is a measure of financial impact for the insurance industry and a measure of assistance needed for government and non-government agencies. Ordinary folks, those who need to prepare and evacuate, don't really care if someone else 200 miles away is also impacted. They care about maximum potential severity at their location.



The HSI affects maximum severity at your own location due to the amount of storm surge, wave setup, duration of winds and rains, etc.

It's not just about what's happening 100 or 200 miles away, it's about how long the storm has to build waves and surge (due to size,) how long YOU will be under the CDO as the storm passes (due to size,) and how big an area it will impact (due to size).

Guess what? Destroying something 100 or 200 miles away CAN AND WILL effect you: power lines and other utilities, dams and levees upstream or downstream, port or oil infrastructure, etc. All of these things are effected just as much by size as peak wind speed. The more damage is done "somewhere else" the longer it takes to fix stuff even near you, or the longer it takes emergency workers to rescue you...

So it works anyway.

This is why Isaac did so much damage in some locations, and smashed inland flooding records on some creeks and bayous in S. Tangipahoa and S. Livingston parishes: a combination of near-record rainfall plus above average storm surge reflected by it's very large size, although slow movement isn't accounted for in any system, size still effects rainfall totals and rainfall's wide spread impacts, since it takes longer for a large storm to move past given the same forward speed. Ten inches of rain over a few square miles might not hurt YOU, but ten inches of rain over half the state probably will hurt YOU or someone near you...

The HSI did (or would have done) a very good job of showing just how much worse Isaac was than it's mere 80mph official wind speed implied.

It really did have surge impacts in isolated locations which were typical of category 2 or 3 hurricanes, and it had far more rainfall impacts both locally and regionally than any category 3 in anyone's memory, or for that matter, any U.S. TC in anyone's memory except possibly Allison...
A vigorous spin off the coast of SE Florida. If that can close off, could we get a depression out of that later this afternoon as the low transitions down from the upper layers?
Quoting PuntaGordaPete:


The HSI is close to useless for ordinary people. It is a measure of financial impact for the insurance industry and a measure of assistance needed for government and non-government agencies. Ordinary folks, those who need to prepare and evacuate, don't really care if someone else 200 miles away is also impacted. They care about maximum potential severity at their location.


You're absolutely wrong about that.

For starters, a bigger tropical cyclone is far more likely to strike a particular spot on the coastline. If a forecast had Michael coming ashore on the Atlantic seaboard in a week, I wouldn't pay much attention - I'd wait until it got really close. If it showed Leslie a week out, I would - because with a storm the size of Leslie, even if the precise track is way off I'd still be likely to be impacted.

But also, as Isaac showed, 'intensity' is misleading. There are peak winds. Those matter. There's storm surge. That matters too. There're rainfall totals.

The 'maximum potentially severity at their location' is not the only thing that counts. If I get five inches of rain, but they get twenty inches upstream, it matters. If the storm is huge, and breaks a levy dozens of miles away, it can still flood my property - even if I'm lightly hit. If it takes out power over three hundred miles of coastline, it's going to take a hell of a lot longer to get my own lights turned back on than if the effects are relatively concentrated.

Right now, Saffir Simpson tells us about peak winds. It tells us almost nothing about rainfall, and relatively little about storm surge. And it's totally silent on breadth of impact. That's not its fault. It was developed by a structural engineer to provide useful guidance about structural integrity during severe winds - particularly in the third world, where many structures are not designed to withstand sustained winds of hurricane magnitude. As a narrow tool, it's actually quite useful. The trouble is that it's been broadly applied to tell people how much they have to fear from a hurricane. And since the maximum wind loads applied to a given structure are just one component of that broader question, it's often failed spectacularly in that role.
Tropical Storm LESLIE NESDIS Satellite | NDBC Obs | Storm Archive
...DISORGANIZED LESLIE DRIFTING NORTHWARD...
11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 4
Location: 25.0°N 62.5°W
Moving: N at 3 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
1328. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
boy you folks down there just cannot catch a break huh
I'm keeping an eye on the upper-level low fo ser. the way this seasons been going oh man
1330. yqt1001
THE DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
MICHAEL...THE 13TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 SEASON. ONLY 2005 AND
2011 HAD THE 13TH NAMED STORM FORM EARLIER THAN 4 SEPTEMBER.
Quoting CloudGatherer:


You're absolutely wrong about that.

For starters, a bigger tropical cyclone is far more likely to strike a particular spot on the coastline. If a forecast had Michael coming ashore on the Atlantic seaboard in a week, I wouldn't pay much attention - I'd wait until it got really close. If it showed Leslie a week out, I would - because with a storm the size of Leslie, even if the precise track is way off I'd still be likely to be impacted.

But also, as Isaac showed, 'intensity' is misleading. There are peak winds. Those matter. There's storm surge. That matters too. There're rainfall totals.

The 'maximum potentially severity at their location' is not the only thing that counts. If I get five inches of rain, but they get twenty inches upstream, it matters. If the storm is huge, and breaks a levy dozens of miles away, it can still flood my property - even if I'm lightly hit. If it takes out power over three hundred miles of coastline, it's going to take a hell of a lot longer to get my own lights turned back on than if the effects are relatively concentrated.

Right now, Saffir Simpson tells us about peak winds. It tells us almost nothing about rainfall, and relatively little about storm surge. And it's totally silent on breadth of impact. That's not its fault. It was developed by a structural engineer to provide useful guidance about structural integrity during severe winds - particularly in the third world, where many structures are not designed to withstand sustained winds of hurricane magnitude. As a narrow tool, it's actually quite useful. The trouble is that it's been broadly applied to tell people how much they have to fear from a hurricane. And since the maximum wind loads applied to a given structure are just one component of that broader question, it's often failed spectacularly in that role.



Bravo.

Almost the same exact valid arguments as me.

Thank God someone else sees this.
1332. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
boy you folks down there just cannot catch a break huh
or more

lol thats for today then they have to deal with more rain from ex issac by friday if he heads sse
Everyone please note that a certain respected member of this forum has forged and staged a canine birthing scenario all in the hopes of gaining some sort of sick and twisted notariety among the other members. Who knows what's next?!
1334. LargoFl
lots of flood warnings in alabama today..........BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
923 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 921 AM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RAIN WILL BE FALLING ON
AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING FROM RAINFALL EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO CONTINUE OR
POSSIBLY WORSEN DURING THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...FORT
DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...MOSSES...BEECHWOOD...GORDON VILLE...LOGAN AND
LOWNDES COUNTY AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
1335. hydrus
Quoting yqt1001:
THE DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
MICHAEL...THE 13TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 SEASON. ONLY 2005 AND
2011 HAD THE 13TH NAMED STORM FORM EARLIER THAN 4 SEPTEMBER.
Good thing The approach of El-Nino slowed things down a bit ...Lol
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF LESLIE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF ABOUT 20 KT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE NOW MORE
RESEMBLES A CURVED BAND PATTERN. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO CAUSE THE
CIRCULATION TO BE VERTICALLY TILTED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 30 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE
POOR VERTICAL ALIGNMENT OF LESLIE AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH DURING THAT TIME. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR LESLIE TO GAIN
STRENGTH. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BETWEEN LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE.

LESLIE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT AND IS LOCATED
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE LESLIE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LESLIE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO FIRST TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TV15 AND TVCA.

DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 25.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 25.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 26.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 26.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 26.8N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 27.5N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 29.2N 64.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY
1338. LargoFl
Quoting RTSplayer:



Bravo.

Almost the same exact valid arguments as me.

Thank God someone else sees this.

Only 1 comment from you, RTS? LOL

For your information RTS, your comments reset because you began you first blog.

And a good blog it is King!!
1340. yqt1001
Must say, I've seen worse looking tropical storms.

Quoting RTSplayer:



The HSI affects maximum severity at your own location due to the amount of storm surge, wave setup, duration of winds and rains, etc.

It's not just about what's happening 100 or 200 miles away, it's about how long the storm has to build waves and surge (due to size,) how long YOU will be under the CDO as the storm passes (due to size,) and how big an area it will impact (due to size).

Guess what? Destroying something 100 or 200 miles away CAN AND WILL effect you: power lines and other utilities, dams and levees upstream or downstream, port or oil infrastructure, etc. All of these things are effected just as much by size as peak wind speed. The more damage is done "somewhere else" the longer it takes to fix stuff even near you, or the longer it takes emergency workers to rescue you...

So it works anyway.



No argument about the meaning of HSI. However, local storm surge, rainfall, total duration, maximum wind, etc. are the items that go into a personal decision to prepare and/or evacuate. All of those items are already forecast without resorting to another index. Widespread damage highlighted by HSI potential may be interesting, but it does not drive evacuations. Actually, quite the opposite. It makes evacuation more difficult. Likewise, the potential for widespread power loss does not really drive anyone to evacuate.

Your point appears to be one of finding a scheme to help *individuals* make better decisions in advance of a storm. If so, concentrate on *individual* factors and forget about the billions of dollars in total damage.

One of the more common reactions quoted over the past week has been, "We didn't think it would be this bad." Even though the forecasts called for up to 20 inches of rain over a large area, many folks were apparently basing their expectations on past experience rather than current forecasts.
1342. LargoFl
Arkansas....the land with no mosquitoes!!

1344. ncstorm
remember in the earlier models runs that the Euro was showing a depression forming off the SE coast of florida and interacting with leslie. Remember the NHC said it was one of the players that could influence Leslie's track..of course the Euro dropped it but that dosent mean anything when it comes to the model runs..



visible loop showing the spin
And the upward trend in the forecast intensity begins with Michael.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 27.7N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 28.5N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 29.0N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 29.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 30.5N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 31.5N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
1346. LargoFl
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Only 1 comment from you, RTS? LOL

For your information RTS, your comments reset because you began you first blog.

And a good blog it is King!!


Honestly, I mainly only did that as a means to save my posts for later reference.

If anyone wants to read it, they're welcome to do so, obviously.
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST...
...FLOOD WARNING EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY CONTINUES...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING: HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS FROM LAST WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR AND EAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

WINDS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HAIL: DIME OR NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE INTERIOR AND EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEK AS SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE MAY AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.
Quoting ncstorm:
remember in the earlier models runs that the Euro was showing a depression forming off the SE coast of florida and interacting with leslie. Remember the NHC said it was one of the players that could influence Leslie's track..of course the Euro dropped it but that dosent mean anything when it comes to the model runs..



visible loop showing the spin


meh.

Combined with the ULL, this might produce a western weakness in the Bermuda High, allowing Leslie to make a left turn after all.

Really needs watching for that reason more than anything at present time.
Still think that ULL can become Nadine folks!!
1351. LargoFl
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Still think that ULL can become Nadine folks!!


1353. 7544
ex issac ?maybe a hint where he will go

Link
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Still think that ULL can become Nadine folks!!

Just kidding guys!!
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Bingo.

Amazing the lows some will go.

Sick.


What's gong on?
1356. LargoFl
1357. hydrus
If this were to pan out, it could be serious..Link
1358. GetReal






It appears that the steering currents are going to take the remnants of Isaac out into the east central GOM...
se.drought.over.now
1360. LargoFl
Quoting PuntaGordaPete:


No argument about the meaning of HSI. However, local storm surge, rainfall, total duration, maximum wind, etc. are the items that go into a personal decision to prepare and/or evacuate. All of those items are already forecast without resorting to another index. Widespread damage highlighted by HSI potential may be interesting, but it does not drive evacuations. Actually, quite the opposite. It makes evacuation more difficult. Likewise, the potential for widespread power loss does not really drive anyone to evacuate.

Your point appears to be one of finding a scheme to help *individuals* make better decisions in advance of a storm. If so, concentrate on *individual* factors and forget about the billions of dollars in total damage.

One of the more common reactions quoted over the past week has been, "We didn't think it would be this bad." Even though the forecasts called for up to 20 inches of rain over a large area, many folks were apparently basing their expectations on past experience rather than current forecasts.


Most of the world isn't made up of Wundergrounders.

When people are deciding how to prepare for a storm, they don't consult the SLOSH models, or click refresh on the AHPS rainfall map. They turn on the television, and look at the graphic.

You're absolutely right that they reason based on past expectations. What you're missing is how attached most Americans are to the five categories. Storms are complicated; categories are simple. So if they've lived through a number of hurricanes, they'll think back to those storms. If they were fine through a few CAT 1s, got a little flooded in a CAT 2, and got hammered by a CAT 3, that will shape their expectations. They're likely to evacuate for a CAT 3, but not a CAT 1. And that holds true irrespective of the other information flooding in.

In the post-Isaac interviews I saw and read, I heard people say over and over: "We didn't expect this from a Category 1." But actually, the forecasts over the last 48 hours were spot-on - even, truth be told, a little worse than what most actually experienced. People focused on the number, not on the details. And - even more to the point - there's a widespread reaction on the Gulf Coast blaming the NHC for putting the storm intensity too low. Instead of thinking "Golly, there's more to storms than Saffir-Simpson Categories," a surprising percentage of the public is instead complaining, "Wow, that was nothing like previous Category 1s I've lived through, so it must have been a 2 or a 3."

If the NHC is going to put out a single number for a storm, and people are - foolishly, we all agree - going to base their decisions on that number, it should start using a number that's a whole lot more predictive of the experience on the ground.
1362. Grothar
Quoting 7544:
ex issac ?maybe a hint where he will go

Link


Nice.
1363. 7544
interesting to see how the ull close to se fla will effect the remains of issasc when he gets in the gulf will it pull him more south n east or will they meet ?
1364. LargoFl
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting bluesydeacon:
Everyone please note...


What in the world wide web are you trying to pull?
Quoting CloudGatherer:


You're absolutely wrong about that.

For starters, a bigger tropical cyclone is far more likely to strike a particular spot on the coastline. If a forecast had Michael coming ashore on the Atlantic seaboard in a week, I wouldn't pay much attention - I'd wait until it got really close. If it showed Leslie a week out, I would - because with a storm the size of Leslie, even if the precise track is way off I'd still be likely to be impacted.

But also, as Isaac showed, 'intensity' is misleading. There are peak winds. Those matter. There's storm surge. That matters too. There're rainfall totals.

The 'maximum potentially severity at their location' is not the only thing that counts. If I get five inches of rain, but they get twenty inches upstream, it matters. If the storm is huge, and breaks a levy dozens of miles away, it can still flood my property - even if I'm lightly hit. If it takes out power over three hundred miles of coastline, it's going to take a hell of a lot longer to get my own lights turned back on than if the effects are relatively concentrated.

Right now, Saffir Simpson tells us about peak winds. It tells us almost nothing about rainfall, and relatively little about storm surge. And it's totally silent on breadth of impact. That's not its fault. It was developed by a structural engineer to provide useful guidance about structural integrity during severe winds - particularly in the third world, where many structures are not designed to withstand sustained winds of hurricane magnitude. As a narrow tool, it's actually quite useful. The trouble is that it's been broadly applied to tell people how much they have to fear from a hurricane. And since the maximum wind loads applied to a given structure are just one component of that broader question, it's often failed spectacularly in that role.


You are so far off base in your response, I don't even know where to begin. I did not say in any way, shape, or form that SS is the ultimate answer. What I did say, and will say again, is that *local* conditions are what ordinary people care about. Yes, the potential for a hit is greater if the storm is larger. Yes, there can be downstream flooding in some areas.

The problem with HSI is that it is yet another obscure, somewhat arbitrary, index that has no meaning for ordinary people. Just look at the words of Impact Weather in their overview of the HSI

Uses for HSI:
* Scheduling post-storm resources
* Objective guidance in implementation of a phased hurricane plan
* A way to quantify offshore wave development potential

This is stuff for professionals, not for convincing individuals to evacuate.
Quoting GetReal:






It appears that the steering currents are going to take the remnants of Isaac out into the east central GOM...
My guess he'll get sheared apart by the same trough that picks up Leslie.
Here's an easy system.

1, Start with 1015mb.

2, Find the approximate area covered by each full Millibar of pressure in square kilometers, but not overlapping stronger(lower) pressure values. i.e. the area of each amorphous "donut" of pressure lines around the CoC.

3, For each partition, subtract forecasted landfall intensity in pressure from 1015.

4, Square the result of the pressure subtraction for each partition and multiply by that partition's size.

5, Add all of the partitions.

6, Do the same for historical storms.

7, Compare the results of the forecast to actual values of other real hurricanes.


This would solve both the size and intensity issues by combining them in a multiplicative index directly related to size and pressure.

The initial values would be very large, but could be scaled down and formatted to manageable numbers by simply dropping the last N digits.

Then you would compare analog landfalls in the public broadcast.

This would give an exact, scientific value to the instantaneous severity of the forecast landfall, rather than "guesswork" on vague notions of size and wind speed.

In this system, a 940mb ring would be given 33% more points than a 930mb ring of the same size.

The score would be expressed in "scientific" units of (mb^2)*(km^2), which has an absolute meaning, rather than vague concepts, and is similar to the IKE value, except it represents an instantaneous severity.


ACE is truly useless for forecasting, and is only useful for ranking a storm after the fact.

Systems like HSI or the one I just made up on the spot, would be excellent as forecasting tools, because they can be predicted within certain margins of error, and they can be related to instantaneous destructive potential, rather than cumulative effects over long times (which truly are meaningless in most cases since most ACE is aquired out over the open water where it effects almost nothing..)
i am watching an area of disturbed weather,at the back of the tropical wave in the eatl,sw of the cape verde islands. the area is within an elongated area of low pressure within the monsoon trough, near 10n 29.5w. The 850mb vorticity is quite strong. There is good divegence and convergence. although the area is under 20knots of nw shear.the shear is forecast to drop to 5-10knot range the next few days. although none of the global models, at the moment do not develop this area, it is still an area that needs watching,especially there is some form of cyclonic turning within the vicinity.
1372. MahFL
Quoting TomballTXPride:
A vigorous spin off the coast of SE Florida. If that can close off, could we get a depression out of that later this afternoon as the low transitions down from the upper layers?


No chance at all.