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Isaac pounding Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:01 PM GMT on August 29, 2012

Hurricane Isaac continues to lumber slowly northwestwards at 6 mph, as it pounds Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida's Panhandle with torrential rains, high winds, and a damaging storm surge. The eye was partially over water for most of the 15 hours after Isaac's official landfall at 7:45 pm EDT Tuesday night, but New Orleans radar shows the eye of the storm is now fully ashore near Houma. The radar echoes show some weakening on the west side of the eyewall, where dry air has infiltrated the storm. Wind shear remains light, and upper level outflow over Isaac is as impressive as we've seen so far, with a strong outflow channel to the north, and a respectable one to the south, as well. Infrared and visible satellite loops show a very large, symmetric, and well organized storm, and Isaac is going to be able to stay near Category 1 hurricane strength all day today. This will allow Isaac to drop rainfall amounts of 15 - 20" in some areas of Louisiana before the storm is over. A few rainfall totals from Isaac through 11 am EDT:

9.26" New Orleans Lakefront Airport
5.59" Belle Chasse, LA
5.21" Mobile, AL
3.65" Hattiesburg, MS
3.42" Gulfport, MS
2.81" Biloxi, MS


Figure 1. Morning radar reflectivity image from New Orleans.

A dangerous storm surge event underway
Isaac is bringing a large and dangerous storm surge to the coast from Central Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida. Late this morning was high tide along much of the coast, and the highest water levels of Isaac are likely being experienced at many locations. At 11:30 am EDT, here were some of the storm surge values being recorded at NOAA tide gauges:

8.0' Waveland, MS
8.2' Shell Beach, LA
2.0' Pensacola, FL
4.6' Pascagoula, MS
3.4' Mobile, AL

The peak 11.06' storm surge at 1:30 am EDT this morning at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne, 20 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeded the 9.5' surge recorded there during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008. In general, the storm surge heights from Isaac have been more characteristic of a strong Category 2 hurricane, rather than the weak Category 1 hurricane one might suppose Isaac is, based on its top sustained winds of 75 - 80 mph. The Saffir-Simpson Scale for ranking hurricanes is only a crude measure of their potential impacts.

A storm surge estimated at 12' moved up the Mississippi in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, near 8:30 pm EDT Tuesday, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade New Orleans got after Hurricane Katrina, and were not rated to Category 3 hurricane strength, like the levees protecting New Orleans are. The surge continued upriver, elevating the water levels 10' in New Orleans (103 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi), 8' in Baton Rouge (228 miles upstream), and 1.4' at Knox Landing, an amazing 314 miles upstream. The river was 7' low due to the great 2012 U.S. drought, and I suspect the near-record low flow rate of the river allowed the storm surge to propagate so far upstream. The salt water from the storm surge will be slow to leave the river, due to the continued winds of Isaac keeping the surge going, plus the very low flow rates of the river. One benefit of the heavy rains of 10 - 20 inches expected to fall over Louisiana over the next two days will be to increase the flow rate of the Mississippi River, helping flush the salt water out of the river. The low flow rates of the Mississippi had allowed salt water to move upriver to just south of New Orleans over the past few weeks, threatening the drinking water supply of Plaquemines Parish.


Figure 2. Tide gauge data from Waveland, Mississippi. The green line shows the storm surge. The red line is the storm tide, the height of the water above Mean Sea Level (MSL.) The storm tide at Waveland currently (9') is 2' higher than that of Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Tropical Storm Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Kirk formed Tuesday night in the Central Atlantic. Kirk's formation at 03 UTC on August 29 puts 2012 in 4th place for earliest formation date of the season's 11th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1933 had an earlier formation date of the season's 11th storm. Kirk should stay well out to sea and not trouble any land areas.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Kirk.

Invest 98L in the Eastern Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) is about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 50% chance of developing by Friday morning. Several of the models develop 98L into a tropical depression by this weekend, but none of the reliable models foresee that 98L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles. The storm may be a threat to Bermuda next week, but it is too early to say if it may threaten the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

OldLeatherneck. That you again???
502. Relix
98L should surely go NE of us. Definitely closer than what models are saying but at a nice distance.
Quoting vince1:
Even though it's only a Category 1, this was a Category 3 surge IMO. Look at this video from Reed Timmer... hate him or not, he had captured the true force of what big Cat. 1 hurricanes could do with Category 3 surge.

Link
Quoting LAlurker:

Downstream? The water came from the Gulf.


Hi... Still no power and hot and humid...duh I know. Rain to come? Re: comment the water is coming from lakes and bayous round about the new great flood wall across the MRGO. All that water that has been stopped has to go somewhere and the new pressure now is to the lakes etc to the east. Areas that never flooded before got water and more water funneled now to lakes to the east. Yes technically...it's all from the gulf though.
From New Orleans, LA:

BREAKING: 5.2 VIRGIN ISLANDS QUAKE
Given the rapid development forecast in the intensity models, let's hope 98L recurves out to sea.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


GFS said that about Isaac, then killed it off, then had it developing in the Caribbean and then all the drama we saw happened began. Euro doesn't even want to develop 98L. Euro seems to do the best with fully developed cyclones from what I've seen, as it has dropped a lot of storms this season.


ECMWF doesn't use bogusing, which could play a role in that. GFDL, GFDN, HWRF, NOGAPS, and UKMET do.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking east towards Galveston Bay, Isaac cloud shield closing in







I'm just on the road on FM518. Been a super nice day here.
Quoting oracle28:


The cloud shield has reached Galveston Bay? How many miles is that from the center?


So...it did go west, along the coast. Looks to be more NW now, so maybe it won't decide to sneak back into the GOM. That would be a dangerous scenario for the Galveston area.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As bad as this storm has been, imagine if it were a Category 3 or Category 4 like would have occurred if it built up a well-defined core several days before landfall. As it stands, the damage total will likely be over $2 billion.
And proved that New Orleans area will need to work harder on their levees... this was too close for New Orleans area and new levees. Many levees failures in other area of Louisiana as well, even though there wasn't enough money/time since Katrina to prevent these failures from Isaac.
Quoting NSB207:
As the hurricane moves northward, through LA, AK, and further north, is it possible its influence might break the dry high over the mid west and TX?

Seems there would be a disruption in the pattern...what is the history of weather changes in the past regarding this question.


It's going to Alaska? Levi might get some tropical action after all. :-)

Quoting Relix:
98L should surely go NE of us. Definitely closer than what models are saying but at a nice distance.


But it has been trending further west. This isn't 2011 or 2010. The troughs are weaker, there is more ridging in place. Not saying it will be a US hit, so I could be wrong, but just saying that the factors are in place...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Guys I have a question for you..

Did USA and the countries that can be affected by hurricanes like Mexico, Canada, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Belize (UK), Azores etc. got into an agreement so that the NHC in Miami, FL USA is the sole authority to determine the status and tracking of any tropical cyclone in the Atlantic and Epac and no other country?

who can answer that?




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Specialized _Meteorological_Center
Quoting DVSmith:
Given the rapid development forecast in the intensity models, let's hope 98L recurves out to sea.


Hopefully she'll be pretty to watch leave, heh?
Quoting midgulfmom:


Hi... Still no power and hot and humid...duh I know. Rain to come? Re: comment the water is coming from lakes and bayous round about the new great flood wall across the MRGO. All that water that has been stopped has to go somewhere and the new pressure now is to the lakes etc to the east. Areas that never flooded before got water and more water funneled now to lakes to the east. Yes technically...it's all from the gulf though.


Sigh........
So why, if we're on the West side, are they still showing rainfall totals of 6-12" where we are? If it's sliding NW from it's current position, wouldn't it slide slightly East of us but we would still be in the brunt of the storm near the eye since it's moving at an angle and not straight up?
Hello Folks. Been watching StormJunkie and CycloneOz. Both chasing Hurricane Isaac in Miss. and La. Both are very interesting and, in Oz's case, entertaining, to say the least.
Personally, after following Isaac from his initial tropical wave days, I Still Am Amazed Currently. Since his eventual development, he has been an Indifferent Storm Against All Consensus. The models have been like windshield wipers throughout. The track has been tough. If Someone Actually Assumed Correctly, they would be considered a wizard. Ironically, Storms Are About Confusion, and not straight to the point entities. As we know about forecasting In Storms, Absolute Accuracy Counts, and is hoped for but, usually never happens. Ideologically, Storms Are Actually Confusing and do tend to make us all go nuts. This blog does occasionally go off the wall and thus Insane Stubborn Arguments Are Created. If Some Actually Agreed Coherently now and then, I believe we would take a pause and ask, is this the WU?? As we all do know, Ignorant Statements Are Always Condescending in one manner or another. However, in general, I think this blog is very interesting, entertaining, and knowledgeable. Thanks for keeping up the good work folks.
I Submit, Always Argue Civilized everyone. Isaac is one heck of a Cat 1, to say the least.
Quoting RitaEvac:


200+ miles


Thanks, I looked it up, 248 miles from Houma-Galveston.

That's a big shield.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Not blaming any agency, neither government.... blaming personal decision, the ability to learn from the past....

Look in YTube for info, and you will see how many irresponsible videos of hurricane parties and nonsense.... while there is disaster around...


I am just asking that we don't discuss personal irresponsibility at the very moment that people are suffering and possibly dying? Not everyone stayed so they could have a hurricane party...I am not trying to single you out but there have been so many insensitive and pompous comments by many so bloggers today...
523. Relix
Quoting tropicfreak:



But it has been trending further west. This isn't 2011 or 2010. The troughs are weaker, there is more ridging in place. Not saying it will be a US hit, so I could be wrong, but just saying that the factors are in place...


That's why I believe it will be closer than what the models suggest. Not too worried ATM since its gaining strength it seems, but I don't expect an Earl(2010) type of approach to us in the NE Islands.
maybe this this track...recurving out to sea and not touching Canada though..
its too early to tell though...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THIS AREA OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF UNIONVILLE.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MONROE...FAIRVIEW...MARSHVILLE...UNIONVILLE AND WINGATE. STREAMS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE CROOKED CREEK...STEWARDS CREEK AND
RICHARDSON CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
Quoting jascott1967:


I'm just on the road on FM518. Been a super nice day here.


Feels good with the wind
Wow! This is crazy!!! Posting from Uptown in NOLA. We are still experiencing very strong gusts. A handful of trees down in the neighborhood and I expect more to follow since many of them are old and won't be able to take much more. Still not experiencing very heavy rainfall, although it's pretty continuous. Haven't seen any flooding in my area at all, thank goodness. Be safe and well to everyone feeling Isaac's wrath
Quoting JonClaw:


Hopefully she'll be pretty to watch leave, heh?


Precisely.

Usually, I expect at least one wet CV storm to make an NC landfall (it's usually what we need to break our seemingly-annual droughts), but this year has been so wet, that I fear even a low-Cat 1 could do as much damage as Fran or Floyd (in terms of downed trees and flooding).
Real story from a father in LA -

Yesterday, I sent my family to AL to avoid Hurricane Isaac. After they left, I went to feed the family fish and I found the enclosed scene (See picture)--where my daughter , Ashley, had given good instruction on how her stuffed animal friends should behave during the Hurricane. ( A future leader in the making! ) - Greg Taylor - Mandeville LA

Ashley's Hurricane Isaac rules to stuffed animals:

1. Noises: scoot close to your buddy.
2. Bathroom: take a buddy.
3. Rules: follow these rules.
4. When I'm gone: stay calm. No parties.
5. Fun: have fun.
Very deadly storm affecting most of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Issac has often defied logic during his life span and it continues to this moment........He was weak at times when he was supposed to strengthen and has continued to remain strong when he was supposed to weaken.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
And proved that New Orleans area will need to work harder on their levees... this was too close for New Orleans area and new levees. Many levees failures in other area of Louisiana as well, even though there wasn't enough money/time since Katrina to prevent these failures from Isaac.


I wouldnt say that...water came from lake ponchartrain to the levees and never had a shot at getting over...
Worse thing that could have happened would have been the industrial canal overflowing for a few minutes, which wouldnt have done anything really.

Everything was under control
Pretty strong trough that should pull 98L out to sea.

Quoting icmoore:


I am just asking that we don't discuss personal irresponsibility at the very moment that people are suffering and possibly dying? Not everyone stayed so they could have a hurricane party...I am not trying to single you out but there have been so many insensitive and pompous comments by many so bloggers today...
Well said.
Can we leave the non-weather-related political discussions to a political blog?

There's two active storms and a soon-to-be TD12 in the Atlantic basin. Let's talk about that.
533. Your statements confound logic... a group is more at fault because they didn't repeal something, than the group that put the law into place? Um, ok.

Anyway... why the heck are we talking politics, when a tropical storm is trying to flood out a large city?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Even though it's only a Category 1, this was a Category 3 surge IMO. Look at this video from Reed Timmer... hate him or not, he had captured the true force of what big Cat. 1 hurricanes could do with Category 3 surge.

Link
Is everyone forgetting that it is also a Full moon or almost and that causes tides to be higher.
Quoting RadarRich:
Hello Folks. Been watching StormJunkie and CycloneOz. Both chasing Hurricane Isaac in Miss. and La. Both are very interesting and, in Oz's case, entertaining, to say the least.
Personally, after following Isaac from his initial tropical wave days, I Still Am Amazed Currently. Since his eventual development, he has been an Indifferent Storm Against All Consensus. The models have been like windshield wipers throughout. The track has been tough. If Someone Actually Assumed Correctly, they would be considered a wizard. Ironically, Storms Are About Confusion, and not straight to the point entities. As we know about forecasting In Storms, Absolute Accuracy Counts, and is hoped for but, usually never happens. Ideologically, Storms Are Actually Confusing and do tend to make us all go nuts. This blog does occasionally go off the wall and thus Insane Stubborn Arguments Are Created. If Some Actually Agreed Coherently now and then, I believe we would take a pause and ask, is this the WU?? As we all do know, Ignorant Statements Are Always Condescending in one manner or another. However, in general, I think this blog is very interesting, entertaining, and knowledgeable. Thanks for keeping up the good work folks.
I Submit, Always Argue Civilized everyone. Isaac is one heck of a Cat 1, to say the least.


Nice!
Quoting kwgirl:
Is everyone forgetting that it is also a Full moon or almost and that causes tides to be higher.
Good catch, forgot about that.
Quoting RadarRich:
Hello Folks. Been watching StormJunkie and CycloneOz. Both chasing Hurricane Isaac in Miss. and La. Both are very interesting and, in Oz's case, entertaining, to say the least.
Personally, after following Isaac from his initial tropical wave days, I Still Am Amazed Currently. Since his eventual development, he has been an Indifferent Storm Against All Consensus. The models have been like windshield wipers throughout. The track has been tough. If Someone Actually Assumed Correctly, they would be considered a wizard. Ironically, Storms Are About Confusion, and not straight to the point entities. As we know about forecasting In Storms, Absolute Accuracy Counts, and is hoped for but, usually never happens. Ideologically, Storms Are Actually Confusing and do tend to make us all go nuts. This blog does occasionally go off the wall and thus Insane Stubborn Arguments Are Created. If Some Actually Agreed Coherently now and then, I believe we would take a pause and ask, is this the WU?? As we all do know, Ignorant Statements Are Always Condescending in one manner or another. However, in general, I think this blog is very interesting, entertaining, and knowledgeable. Thanks for keeping up the good work folks.
I Submit, Always Argue Civilized everyone. Isaac is one heck of a Cat 1, to say the least.

I sense an alarming Cerebellum.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
This is so sad...Guys this is from a Cat. 1 Hurricane, please leave if you know your area is flood prone.

Plaquemines levee breached.Cant personally authenticate,but very possible (via Carl Parker)

MT @JMLeblanc23 from 3 story Braithewaite home

The photo you posted is a true picture from Braithwaite in Plaquemines if we are to believe the livestream from wwltv this morning. (And I do.) Complicated story in this case. The way I understand what I have heard today on wwl, has to do with new wall completed on the west bank, an ongoing levee improvement on the east bank, and the angle of the storm and its wind which drove gulf water straight upriver to meet water flowing downstream in the Mississippi. Lots of water with no place to go.
Quoting CJ5:


Please don't start, but since you did. Lets talk real numbers; Head Start a program that every single study proves provides no benefit costs us 8 billion a year and 81 billion since the 70's. Cut it. Student grades have remained level since the 70's despite a 300% increase in funding. The Federal Education department has served no function that relates to improved learning for children, none. There may be some need in federal involvement but it should all go back to the local level. The Teachers Union is the 6th largest contributor to politicians, well ahead of Big Oil. Tax cuts didn't cause the problem, if they did this Administration is even more to blame because they didn't repeal them. So lets talk about how to cut spending and quit blaming straw men.


Stop having Natural Disasters, would be a good start. Simple.

Now, please, for the sake of us out here who don't give a dam about the state of US Domestic Administration, stop the talk.
folks if you have phone contact with anyone cut off and no power in the danger zones, an official said crews would get to work on repairing the lines etc..when the winds get 30 mph or lower..there are alot..of crews standing by, just hold on and stay safe..
549. yoboi
Quoting JasonRE:
So why, if we're on the West side, are they still showing rainfall totals of 6-12" where we are? If it's sliding NW from it's current position, wouldn't it slide slightly East of us but we would still be in the brunt of the storm near the eye since it's moving at an angle and not straight up?



counter clockwise......
Nowhere near 15-20 inches of rain that was thought to play out

547: LOL.
Quoting JasonRE:
Lafayette still not seeing rain. Wow......where is it?


We've been getting a good bit of rain and wind in Henderson.
Quoting RussianWinter:
BTW is 98L pretty much guaranteed to be a fish storm?


I have 98L coming into Corpus Christi Sometime mid September as a Cat-3 storm...If you just shook your head then I bet you had Isaac riding up the East coast didn't you. FUN SEASON!!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ATKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILLACOOCHEE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
GREEN...PRIDGEN...DOUGLAS...BROXTON AND AMBROSE.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Pretty strong trough that should pull 98L out to sea.





98L is too far S and its still ways a way from that trough
556. rco3
Vince, Nea, CJ5: No, how about we DON'T start. There is a landfalling hurricane RIGHT NOW, and you people are again dragging your stinky politics into the blog. Ignore the bait. Take it elsewhere. Just quit bringing it here. It may have started as a discussion of FEMA and its role in emergencies like this (on-topic), but discussion of educational budgets and which administrations are more responsible spenders is off-topic.

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself." I know this is hard to believe, but that means you too.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Specialized _Meteorological_Center


Talking for Honduras we like to make things Big time. Hurricanes 12,000+ deaths , violence 3000 dead a month. Hunger 5000 a year deaths. SO why we would worry to finance something so simple as 12 ,48.5 million us$ planes for the only reason ,that somebody can argue this is not a cat 1 its a cat3 , forget about it.

Do things big or just don't do it.JAJAJAJAJA

Ohh wait scientific data who cares. Our political system is already to busy to worry about science.

So thxs usa citizens for using your money so we can be safe.Because our own goverment doesn't care.
rom NWS Jackson, MS: Sounds like conditions are deteriorating in the Highway 98 coridor. Getting reports of frequent 40 mph gusts in Columbia with increasing trees down and power outages. Also some flooding.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nowhere near 15-20 inches of rain that was thought to play out


Halfway to 20" in some spots, and it's not over yet. Could reach 15" yet.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The first few are from Waveland MS, which if anyone follows Reed Timmer on facebook would already know where he is, the rest are in Braithwaite, LA I believe.


I don't know who Reed Timmer is and I don't do FB. As I said, caption your photos if you know where they are. You might be amazed at the number of people who don't know a guy named Reed Timmer or who are on FB.
Quoting redwagon:

I sense an alarming Cerebellum.
Love it. Anyone know anything about Ascension parish in LA? I haven't heard from the relatives in a while and I am starting to get a little worried.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Just watched StormJunkie run for cover when a very violent storm came through. Gotta admire his driving ability. Those were big winds and rain. Someone just told him that CNN is going to be streaming him. Very interesting.

Link


I will be on St John over the Labor Day weekend for my daughters wedding. Saw a post about a 5.4 earthquake and 98 is off the coast of Afreca. Any comments about my coming week that you could give.
Can 542 be nominated for the WU hall of fame?
amazing, still has an eye...................
12z UKMET 120 hrs.


Our pond never gets this high.... Im afraid we will be getting sand bags if this keeps up. We have hours of rain and wind left.
Quoting tjboudreaux:


We've been getting a good bit of rain and wind in Henderson.
I think part of the rain is still stuck in Mobile - looks like we might get a little more in my area (pensacola) soon.
568. FOREX
Quoting CybrTeddy:


GFS said that about Isaac, then killed it off, then had it developing in the Caribbean and then all the drama we saw happened began. Euro doesn't even want to develop 98L. Euro seems to do the best with fully developed cyclones from what I've seen, as it has dropped a lot of storms this season.


I'm still learning about troughs and such from this blog. I know I've read that sometimes storms are too low a latitude to be picked up.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nowhere near 15-20 inches of rain that was thought to play out



I thought radar tended to underestimate precipitation... and isn't it still raining?
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON...EAST BATON ROUGE AND ASCENSION
PARISHES...

AT 317 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED VERY
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS
FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EVENING.
Quoting alaina1085:

Our pond never gets this high.... Im afraid we will be getting sand bags if this keeps up. We have hours of rain and wind left.
Where are you at??
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing, still has an eye...................
Not really...plenty of fuel.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nowhere near 15-20 inches of rain that was thought to play out


West Palm Beach got over 20" after the storm was gone. They were still getting rain yesterday. My brother just called from Central Fl, saying they were getting another feeder band. It's far from over.
Quoting FOREX:


I'm still learning about troughs and such from this blog. I know I've read that sometimes storms are too low a latitude to be picked up.
That is true, sometimes if a trough is too weak and the storm is too far south it won't be able to feel the influence from the trough and continue on a westward track, as the high builds in over head after the trough lifts up or passes.
Quoting alaina1085:

Our pond never gets this high.... Im afraid we will be getting sand bags if this keeps up. We have hours of rain and wind left.
This looks familiar. I think I have relatives live there. Where was this taken?
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Where are you at??

Ascension Parish... 60 miles north east of NOLA and 20 miles south east of Baton Rouge.
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Love it. Anyone know anything about Ascension parish in LA? I haven't heard from the relatives in a while and I am starting to get a little worried.

Give Bill Gates a few trillion dollars, what does he do, start messin with the weather on psilocybins. /sarc

Missing quite a few of our peeps reporting tonight, power outs maybe more widespread. Do your relatives know to text, not call in these scenarious?
Just got power back in New Iberia ! Anybody hear about a levee break around Madisonville ?
Quoting Tazmanian:
if you live in PR or the Lesser Antilles i would keep a vary close eye on 98L has some of the mode runs are start too point tours you




Thanks Taz...will be watching it
582. FOREX
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That is true, sometimes if a trough is too weak and the storm is too far south it won't be able to feel the influence from the trough and continue on a westward track, as the high builds in over head after the trough lifts up or passes.


Right. I learn a lot from your posts. Where do you live?
Quoting tropicfreak:



But it has been trending further west. This isn't 2011 or 2010. The troughs are weaker, there is more ridging in place. Not saying it will be a US hit, so I could be wrong, but just saying that the factors are in place...
I think is a matter of timing, between the trough and the forward movement of 98L. We are also getting closer to the first half of September, climatologically speaking most of the strongest band more damaging hurricanes have affected the North eastern Caribbean an Puerto Rico during this time.Let's see what happens...not to sure it will curb before reaching 60W...
Quoting gbreezegirl:
This looks familiar. I think I have relatives live there. Where was this taken?

I live in Galvez/Gonzales of hwy 933
Thanks to Largo and all others providing updates and photos. Watching and hoping for the worst of the damage to be to stuff instead of people and their pets.
Quoting alaina1085:

Ascension Parish... 60 miles north east of NOLA and 20 miles south east of Baton Rouge.
that is where all my husbands family is - I have a niece lives on Cypress Bend Ave on a pond that looks just like that in Gonzales.
We will tie with 2011 and 2005 for a second time if Leslie is designated tomorrow.

Quoting MrMixon:


I thought radar tended to underestimate precipitation... and isn't it still raining?


Getting some of the heaviest rains right no win Baton Rouge..
Quoting groundedpilot:
Just got power back in New Iberia ! Anybody hear about a levee break around Madisonville ?


NOLA.com ‏@NOLAnews

Hurricane #Isaac causes levee break at Guste Island near Madisonville; search and rescue under way - http://ow.ly/dkgRE
Quoting alaina1085:

Ascension Parish... 60 miles north east of NOLA and 20 miles south east of Baton Rouge.


Gonzales?
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing, still has an eye...................


yeah, been over me in assumption parish for a while now...in the early morning hours the feeder bands were being weakened by the dry air...however, when the stronger bands in the eye wall got here at 5 am this morning, all hell broke loose. I was able to get power back at noon today and internet just came up....one of the luck ones for now.
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing, still has an eye...................


Pretty amazing huh?
Quoting icmoore:


I am just asking that we don't discuss personal irresponsibility at the very moment that people are suffering and possibly dying? Not everyone stayed so they could have a hurricane party...I am not trying to single you out but there have been so many insensitive and pompous comments by many so bloggers today...


I was the one who made the statement about the hurricane party and I only posted on what I saw on Good Morning America this morning which is national news..I never said everyone chose to party..I specifically said in New Orleans that they were having hurricane parties..if anyone want to gripe about that, then take it up with ABC news as its online on their website by reporter Bill Weir..I also posted in defense of those who didnt evacuate and even stated that the economy is bad and people are living from pay check to pay check and not everyone can up and leave to ride out a storm in a hotel/shelter due to financial and health reasons..as much as people here want to defend some, Im sure there were some who just thought it was a Cat 1 storm and refused to leave even with the means to do so..did they deserve to lose their homes..heck no! Also to state people are possibly dying is premature as I havent read or seen anything like that and I pray it dosent happen..we need to be more optomistic and stop making things appear worse than they really are..yes property has been lost but there is always living another day and able to hug your love ones..I will take that any day over materalistic possessions..Im sure Haiti islanders will disagree about people staying in mandatory evacuations when they had a choice to leave..remember, there is always someone who has it harder than all of us..blessings to all in the path of Isaac
Quoting groundedpilot:
Just got power back in New Iberia ! Anybody hear about a levee break around Madisonville ?

Haven't heard anything about Madisonville, there was a significant breach in Braithwaite.
597. JLPR2
Clearly 98L's center is to the SE of the convection, here you can see a wind barb that also indicates a 1005mb pressure, 98L is organizing decently and pretty quickly, opposed to what has been the rule for this year's storms.

Quoting gbreezegirl:
that is where all my husbands family is - I have a niece lives on Cypress Bend Ave on a pond that looks just like that in Gonzales.

Do you know what their neighborhood is called?
Quoting RitaEvac:


Gonzales?


Yes Reed
Quoting groundedpilot:
Just got power back in New Iberia ! Anybody hear about a levee break around Madisonville ?


I have a good friend on Hwy 14 in New Iberia - cannot reach him. How bad is it? Thanks for the reply
Quoting MrMixon:


I thought radar tended to underestimate precipitation... and isn't it still raining?


im seeing numerous reports of 7"+ so far as of midnight last night per news stations in new orleans
Quoting alaina1085:

Do you know what their neighborhood is called?

Yes Reed
don't know but street address is Cypress Bend NE in Gonzales - they went to Lutcher to ride it out with some others in the family.
Quoting FOREX:


Right. I learn a lot from your posts. Where do you live?
Largo, FL. in the Tampa Bay area.
Isaac doing quite a number on the gulf coast
confirmed levee break in Madisonville just now on FOX 8 new orleans
Quoting JLPR2:
Clearly 98L's center is to the SE of the convection, here you can see a wind barb that also indicates a 1005mb pressure, 98L is organizing decently and pretty quickly, opposed to what has been the rule for the year's storms.

You think we should watch 98L or is it going out to sea? Pattern is not as west as it was with Isaac plus 98L is orginizing quickly.
EVERYBODY SHUT UP ABOUT POLITCS NOW
Quoting USCGLT:
Notice the 70 MPH speed limit sign!!!


Good to see that Isaac saw the sign and decided to slow down a bit.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That is true, sometimes if a trough is too weak and the storm is too far south it won't be able to feel the influence from the trough and continue on a westward track, as the high builds in over head after the trough lifts up or passes.


Thank you and if you all keep saying these things it's possible that one day my old brain will be able to wrap itself around all of it, heck they say anything is possible, right? :)
This is terrible... A heartbreaking situation.
Quoting gustaveye:
confirmed levee break in Madisonville just now on FOX 8 new orleans
Quoting gbreezegirl:
don't know but street address is Cypress Bend NE in Gonzales - they went to Lutcher to ride it out with some others in the family.

I have heard of it but cant place it exactly. Its around here tho. They would have been better off staying here lol, Lutcher got it worse then us.
deleted...
One of them thar political thangs that I tend to type out, and nearly always delete before posting.
This time I accidentally clicked Submit when I meant to Cancel.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Even though it's only a Category 1, this was a Category 3 surge IMO. Look at this video from Reed Timmer... hate him or not, he had captured the true force of what big Cat. 1 hurricanes could do with Category 3 surge.

Link


That was it? A boat still floating at a dock, some kind of tank or tank car off in the distance, and some water in the bottom of a parking structure? They were hiding out in the same parking structure that was shown? I didn't know Reed Timmer before but, if this is an example of his work, I'm not impressed.
Quoting gustaveye:
confirmed levee break in Madisonville just now on FOX 8 new orleans

Oh wow, thats the northshore! No good.
Quoting alaina1085:

I have heard of it but cant place it exactly. Its around here tho. They would have been better off staying here lol, Lutcher got it worse then us.
So I heard, and Gramercy. Also have folks on Belle River near Pierre Part haven't heard from since this a.m.
Quoting JLPR2:
Clearly 98L's center is to the SE of the convection, here you can see a wind barb that also indicates a 1005mb pressure, 98L is organizing decently and pretty quickly, opposed to what has been the rule for this year's storms.



After the string of close to land storms, that we haven't really been able to enjoy from a meteorological standpoint, and had to worry about in terms of land impact, there is nothing I would love more than a beautiful Cat 4 that recurves east of Bermuda.
Quoting gustaveye:
confirmed levee break in Madisonville just now on FOX 8 new orleans

Thats where Drew Bree's lives!
Madisonville levee break

Just the basic news right now, search and rescue under way. No photos or updates about how bad the flooding is yet.
Also, I-10 near LaPlace, and I-55 near the LaPlace are under water....those highways are cutoff
620. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
You think we should watch 98L or is it going out to sea? Pattern is not as west as it was with Isaac plus 98L is orginizing quickly.


The models could change, but considering the agreement of the models on the track, it will most likely stay out of the Caribbean.
Baton Rouge here... not much rain to this thing yet, hope it will hold out like this.

Power went out this morning due to on little ole tree that Entergy should have cut a LONG time ago that I've been asking them to cut from around their lines. Very poor design. So I sit and look at my neighbor across the street with his motion light kicking off an on. Their power comes from another side of the neighborhood.
Quoting JLPR2:
Clearly 98L's center is to the SE of the convection, here you can see a wind barb that also indicates a 1005mb pressure, 98L is organizing decently and pretty quickly, opposed to what has been the rule for this year's storms.


Most have struggled with dry air this year. Mid-level relative humidity values are in the 70s for this storm. Definitely favorable.
Thanks for the replys !! We didn't get it real bad. We have 36 mph sustained with a max gust of 54 mph. Just a little over 1/2" of rain.
leicaman, Hwy 14 area floods pretty readily with surge. I don't think we have the surge here. Maybe he lost power. If I hear anything from that area, I'll let you know !! I hope he's ok !
624. yoboi
Quoting alaina1085:

Our pond never gets this high.... Im afraid we will be getting sand bags if this keeps up. We have hours of rain and wind left.


what time did ya take that pic???
Man, also, our friends in Mississippi have been hammered with strong winds, spot tornadoes, and a pretty massive storm surge inundating beach road and the surrounding business and casinos.....plenty more water coming that way too
Quoting alaina1085:

Thats where Drew Bree's lives!
how far is that from you? I am worried about Belle River and Pierre Part.
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
Madisonville levee break

Just the basic news right now, search and rescue under way. No photos or updates about how bad the flooding is yet.



That area is sparsely populated but full of high dollar homes.
Quoting yoboi:


what time did ya take that pic???

About 45 minutes ago...
Quoting KatyMan:


I will be on St John over the Labor Day weekend for my daughters wedding. Saw a post about a 5.4 earthquake and 98 is off the coast of Afreca. Any comments about my coming week that you could give.


That's a yes on the earthquake.

Your guess is as good as anyone's at this point. We're supposed to go to Water Island for a long weekend camping trip and we're on hold too. We're giving it until tomorrow night before we make the decision.

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you though!

Keep an eye on Link as it has updated info on all the islands and can be a very big help in seeing the big picture when there's a storm coming in.

Lindy
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Pretty amazing huh?


ok... i've been trying to understand this all day. that really is an eye, right?
That big trough looks like it may be gone before it can completely pick it up which then means it can get caught under the High if I was the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico I would keep a close eye on 98L. Could be stronger than Isaac.
Quoting carpentergrl:



That area is sparsely populated but full of high dollar homes.


Thanks. I know basically nothing about the area, so I have no idea what sorts of impacts would be expected. But I do live in a place where a levee break would be unthinkably bad, so my heart goes out to anybody in that situation.
Quoting dexware:
Baton Rouge here... not much rain to this thing yet, hope it will hold out like this.

Power went out this morning due to on little ole tree that Entergy should have cut a LONG time ago that I've been asking them to cut from around their lines. Very poor design. So I sit and look at my neighbor across the street with his motion light kicking off an on. Their power comes from another side of the neighborhood.

i'm in Denham Springs and it has been raining for several hours now.
Quoting gbreezegirl:
how far is that from you? I am worried about Belle River and Pierre Part.

Thats north of new orleans.
Belle river/Pierre part was on the west side of Isaac where more of the dry air was, I think their fine. I have friends that live there and so far they are all ok.
Quoting alaina1085:

About 45 minutes ago...


Hey is that pic near Lakeland Ave?
Is it just me or is it that Isaac has had landfall that the blog is slow? I'd really like some thoughts on what others think the track might be for the next day or two. And I mean the ones who have looked into it with all the factors incorporated.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And it's FREE! How cool is that.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST WED AUG 29 2012

...KIRK STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 47.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1490 MI...2400 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Quoting cajunkid:

Link please....water in our house
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2012

...ILEANA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 113.0W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
Isaac IMO will probably be retired this year only if the USA nominate him because I don`t trust Haiti with nominations.Haiti and Mexico are only the countries that I don`t trust when nominations occur Haiti with Gordon and Hanna and Mexico with Karl and Alex I am shock that this 4 names continues.
Quoting alaina1085:

Thats north of new orleans.
Belle river/Pierre part was on the west side of Isaac where more of the dry air was, I think their fine. I have friends that live there and so far they are all ok.
Thank you so much for the info.
Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)

645. yoboi
Quoting alaina1085:

About 45 minutes ago...



wow is it slacking up any???
This blog has gotten so slow I think because of the number of users/lurkers on line. I will bid everyone adieu and head for home and the TV. God help all of you in Isaac's way.
98L looks nice :).Hopefully a quick recurvature out to sea.That high has been playing tricks on us all year long and sending storms more west than the last two years(2010,2011).
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Thank you so much for the info.

Your welcome :)
It seems like Louisiana can't get a break in recent years. Looking back on it, when I saw the models shifting west I couldn't believe they would be accurate. Well, so much for that.
Gosh I would feel like a target if I lived in that region after living around Tampa Bay Florida aka hurricane haven as I call it!


The persistent patterns that occur in weather always intrigue me, from local to large scale...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LONG BEACH...GULFPORT...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
GULFPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LYMAN
AND SAUCIER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8901 3032 8923 3065 8934 3065 8925
3067 8924 3069 8923 3068 8906 3040 8893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 161DEG 42KT 3037 8908

$$


DUNN
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Is it just me or is it that Isaac has had landfall that the blog is slow? I'd really like some thoughts on what others think the track might be for the next day or two. And I mean the ones who have looked into it with all the factors incorporated.


It is slowish. A lot of regular posters are probably busy dealing with weather or don't have power right now, though I'm glad to see folks checking in as they can.

I am _nothing like_ terribly knowledgeable on this stuff, but I suspect that people who are would say "the track is really hard to judge, probably a slow drift NW for the next day or two."

There's a ridge sitting right above isaac that stretches from the top of TX all the way to the east coast. It's hard for the storm to move much at the moment, there's some weakness in it to his W but it's not a lot and there's a weak trough going NE but it's not a lot either.

I'd expect that he'll meander NW or WNW but move very slowly, probably for the next day at least, and maybe wander around a bit unless something changes in that ridge soon. At the moment, he is seriously barely moving at all.
Quoting 4waters:


ok... i've been trying to understand this all day. that really is an eye, right?


More like a belly-button now
Alaina...you be careful!
Keep the info coming...
Hope Drew Brees is ok,,,,Just drafted hiim in my fantasy league!
654. vis0
to quote Yogi, ...Dejavu (&) all over again.

: -( (in it) : -o (watching via videos)
Quoting washingtonian115:
98L looks nice :).Hopefully a quick recurvature out to sea.That high has been playing tricks on us all year long and sending storms more west than the last two years(2010,2011).
nice avatar
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Thanks. I know basically nothing about the area, so I have no idea what sorts of impacts would be expected. But I do live in a place where a levee break would be unthinkably bad, so my heart goes out to anybody in that situation.


Any levee break is bad no matter what and where. Let's hope it affects as few homes as possible. I trimmed a house in that area a couple years ago. Most of the houses are right by the water, which was part of the appeal of those particular subdivisions: Guste Island and Port Louis.
It seems like Louisiana can't get a break in recent years. Looking back on it, when I saw the models shifting west I couldn't believe they would be accurate. Well, so much for that.
Gosh I would feel like a target if I lived in that region after living around Tampa Bay Florida aka hurricane haven as I call it!


The persistent patterns that occur in weather always intrigue me, from local to large scale...
Quoting yoboi:



wow is it slacking up any???

Not at all... they are saying we can expect 50mph winds and rain till 9 pm but rain and 35 mph winds through 4pm tomorrow afternoon!
OSCAT SHOWING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH 98L NEAR 13.2N 37.5 W MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 MPH
I know gone off on a tangent.. Radiation network.. Looks like most those areas in the dry air there in the jet stream north of Isaac has had a bit higher radiation lately. Not sure if it's local or drifted in. I hadn't really been keeping up with the Fukushima explosions/debri burning & such since that one a few months ago.. Seems like something is drifting over..(link for US cities)
Flooding will be a huge problem today and tomorrow.....the worst from Isaac is far from over
Quoting NoNamePub:
Alaina...you be careful!
Keep the info coming...
Hope Drew Brees is ok,,,,Just drafted hiim in my fantasy league!

You chose wisely! And Thanks!
Quoting ncstorm:


I was the one who made the statement about the hurricane party and I only posted on what I saw on Good Morning America this morning which is national news..I never said everyone chose to party..I specifically said in New Orleans that they were having hurricane parties..if anyone want to gripe about that, then take it up with ABC news as its online on their website by reporter Bill Weir..I also posted in defense of those who didnt evacuate and even stated that the economy is bad and people are living from pay check to pay check and not everyone can up and leave to ride out a storm in a hotel/shelter due to financial and health reasons..as much as people here want to defend some, Im sure there were some who just thought it was a Cat 1 storm and refused to leave even with the means to do so..did they deserve to lose their homes..heck no! Also to state people are possibly dying is premature as I havent read or seen anything like that and I pray it dosent happen..we need to be more optomistic and stop making things appear worse than they really are..yes property has been lost but there is always living another day and able to hug your love ones..I will take that any day over materalistic possessions..Im sure Haiti islanders will disagree about people staying in mandatory evacuations when they had a choice to leave..remember, there is always someone who has it harder than all of us..blessings to all in the path of Isaac


Media, politics, blame, etc. have been exhausted here today and have exhausted me ... I'm not blaming anyone I just think the timing of those discussions leave a lot to be desired...Also, I do not feel I am hyping anything when houses are up to their roofs with water, a search and rescue is under way after the levee break, and numerous rescues have already occurred...Sorry I'm through now.
While I really feel for those in the Central gulf coast that are getting the brunt of Isaac right now, please don't forget that there are 1000's of families who have been stranded in their homes since Sunday like myself. We also still have the threat of further flooding based on the new story below.

Palm Beach County Levee Concerns

It's been 48 hours since the last rains from Isaac and almost every home in our area has become an Island for the residents living in them. I can't even imagine what the aftermath for those in the gulf coast is going to look like. We ended up with 19" locally from Sunday night through Monday.

Edit: Ironic that my post was number 666 in the thread.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
nice avatar
Thanks.I'm just amazed how for the past three hurricane seasons we have had a record amount of activity.Someone posted a chart and showed that the sst off of south america were cooling except for warming.If that trend continues then expect the activity in the Atlantic to continue.Wouldn't be something to have 19 storms all three season's in a row?.Not likely to happen this year.But would be interesting none the less.
Serious flooding in Laplace near I-10.
Here in Central Ms starting to get some strong wind gusts. Looks like Isaac will be swinging on in momentarily. Everyone stay safe out there. I am new here, so wanted to express my appreciation for the great info I am seeing here.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


That's a yes on the earthquake.

Your guess is as good as anyone's at this point. We're supposed to go to Water Island for a long weekend camping trip and we're on hold too. We're giving it until tomorrow night before we make the decision.

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you though!

Keep an eye on Link as it has updated info on all the islands and can be a very big help in seeing the big picture when there's a storm coming in.

Lindy


I'm a 70 yr old man and not computer literate. Thank you for putting up with me. Will be there until the 6th. Hope you have a great camping trip.
It's hard to wade through the political crap to get info on affected areas. I have a friend that's desperately trying to get some info out of Slidell. Does anyone have a report from that area about conditions?
Weather Channel just mentioned strong High Pressure to north of Isaac (100 degree Temp) -blocking N. Movement
Watch for S.W. Jogs


Posted before , but I'll post it again, 98L center is still at a low latitude , if it's below 15N at 45 -50W , it will usually make it in to the Eastern Caribbean.
I live an hour north of New Orleans: No flooding worries since I am 84 feet above sea level and by no bodies of water. The wind and rain have really picked up here in the last couple of hours. We lost power at 1:15PM and have been running a generator since that point. So far only 2 trees lost and the ground nearly covered in smaller branches (have nearly 7 acres and can see about 4 of it).
St. Tammany parish has instituted a parish-wide curfew of 6 PM to 6 AM tomorrow. The worst of the storm is supposed to be affection our area during that time frame. Right now local authorities are saying that the water in some areas has exceeded what was seen in 2005 during the "K" storm.
We are having some major drainage issues... Lake Ponchatrain and Lake Maurpas are being blown out of the west side and our water drains into lake maurpas but the wind is coming in the opposite direction of the way our water drains. Its a mess.
I am just wondering if he is going to turn or move further west?
Quoting padirescu:
While I really feel for those in the Central gulf coast that are getting the brunt of Isaac right now, please don't forget that there are 1000's of families who have been stranded in their homes since Sunday like myself. We also still have the threat of further flooding based on the new story below.

Palm Beach County Levee Concerns

It's been 48 hours since the last rains from Isaac and almost every home in our area has become an Island for the residents living in them. I can't even imagine what the aftermath for those in the gulf coast is going to look like. We ended up with 19" locally from Sunday night through Monday.
padirescu....I really feel you pain...I do...........But there are people struggling for their lives on rooftops and attics.... I'm sorry for you pain
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


It is slowish. A lot of regular posters are probably busy dealing with weather or don't have power right now, though I'm glad to see folks checking in as they can.

I am _nothing like_ terribly knowledgeable on this stuff, but I suspect that people who are would say "the track is really hard to judge, probably a slow drift NW for the next day or two."

There's a ridge sitting right above isaac that stretches from the top of TX all the way to the east coast. It's hard for the storm to move much at the moment, there's some weakness in it to his W but it's not a lot and there's a weak trough going NE but it's not a lot either.

I'd expect that he'll meander NW or WNW but move very slowly, probably for the next day at least, and maybe wander around a bit unless something changes in that ridge soon. At the moment, he is seriously barely moving at all.


Thank you, Lurky. The ridge and any weakness with it is what I was wondering about. I'm hoping Isaac will go north and not more west, nothing against those in it's way going north, but not wanting anything more than I have to have with Isaac.
Quoting padirescu:
While I really feel for those in the Central gulf coast that are getting the brunt of Isaac right now, please don't forget that there are 1000's of families who have been stranded in their homes since Sunday like myself. We also still have the threat of further flooding based on the new story below.

Palm Beach County Levee Concerns

It's been 48 hours since the last rains from Isaac and almost every home in our area has become an Island for the residents living in them. I can't even imagine what the aftermath for those in the gulf coast is going to look like. We ended up with 19" locally from Sunday night through Monday.


I watched that pounding that you guys took a few days ago -- that was serious crazy. And really unexpected, so I'm sure nobody was prepared for it -- there was no way to see it coming, that blob of huge convection Isaac lobbed over and then having it hang out stuck in the steering pattern all day -- I've never seen anything quite like it.

Thanks for the report. Indeed, serious stuff all over the place -- still worsening in a lot of places. Levees are going to be staying under an incredible amount of pressure for a while yet, and I think the damage when it's cleared out enough for more broad reporting is going to be pretty bad at this point. Fingers are crossed into knots that it is only to people's stuff.


Stay safe over there.
Quoting kidd5433:


More like a belly-button now

true dat. but was... over land, for quite a while... even as a TS, an eye. go figger.

i know a lot of the more experienced folks (i, myself am here to learn and usually fall into the lurker cat) are out of power or in the thick of it, but i hope when things dry out there is some reflection on the whole storm — there is so much that was unexpected, and it seems a lot for everyone to learn.
681. JLPR2
Quoting stormpetrol:


Posted before , but I'll post it again, 98L center is still at a low latitude , if it's below 15N at 45 -50W , it will usually make it in to the Eastern Caribbean.


Actually a bit to the south of where the NHC has it, which is 13.3N.
I wonder if it possible for Isaac to move back over the sea and restrengthen...
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


It is slowish. A lot of regular posters are probably busy dealing with weather or don't have power right now, though I'm glad to see folks checking in as they can.

I am _nothing like_ terribly knowledgeable on this stuff, but I suspect that people who are would say "the track is really hard to judge, probably a slow drift NW for the next day or two."

There's a ridge sitting right above isaac that stretches from the top of TX all the way to the east coast. It's hard for the storm to move much at the moment, there's some weakness in it to his W but it's not a lot and there's a weak trough going NE but it's not a lot either.

I'd expect that he'll meander NW or WNW but move very slowly, probably for the next day at least, and maybe wander around a bit unless something changes in that ridge soon. At the moment, he is seriously barely moving at all.


The models been pretty good on track the last few days and they are saying NW slowly.

Quoting NoNamePub:
Alaina...you be careful!
Keep the info coming...
Hope Drew Brees is ok,,,,Just drafted hiim in my fantasy league!
Brees and the entire Saints organization moved their operations to Tennessee to prepare for the Redskins game, so he's probably OK...his family probably evacuated with him.
Quoting groundedpilot:
Just got power back in New Iberia ! Anybody hear about a levee break around Madisonville ?
levee break... search and rescue underway...

"Hurricane Isaac has caused the levee to break at Port Louis/Guste Island near Madisonville, prompting St. Tammany Parish officials to start search and rescue operations in the area. In addition, search and rescue is under way in the Indian Village area south of Slidell."
Quoting KatyMan:


I'm a 70 yr old man and not computer literate. Thank you for putting up with me. Will be there until the 6th. Hope you have a great camping trip.


You're very welcome. St. John is a beautiful island and I do hope that you have a wonderful time!
And our eyes turn to the east already.
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:

Brees and the entire Saints organization moved their operations to Tennessee to prepare for the Redskins game, so he's probably OK...his family probably evacuated with him.

Im sure they are, just hope there home is ok. People in the north shore rarely evacuate because they usually never flood...so I hope Mrs. Brees packed up.
Quoting dhcoop59:
It's hard to wade through the political crap to get info on affected areas. I have a friend that's desperately trying to get some info out of Slidell. Does anyone have a report from that area about conditions?


just the most recent from TWC - initial flooding bc of the lake inflow. expect winds to begin pushing the water from the lake, north in a few hours. the combination does not look good. leaving probably a good idea if you can.
This is one heck of a Cat-1. One of my cousins just lost her home, in LaPlace. And another is worried about her house. Is anyone posting a real-time flooding map?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
And our eyes turn to the east already.


They are other systems out there that you gotta keep a close eye on. Don't want a system to creep up on you.
Quoting WhoDatRR:
This is one heck of a Cat-1. One of my cousins just lost her home, in LaPlace. And another is worried about her house. Is anyone posting a real-time flooding map?
Oh No................I'm so sorry....
Lol.TWA13 all ways vanish when I get on.Anyway it's been a beautiful warm sunny day up hear in D.C.Couldn't ask for anything better in terms of weather!.I saw the butterflies fluttering in the wind and the birds still chirping.Getting in their last minute of summer before fall comes.The squirrels are all ready starting.Nice breezes to go along with the warmth outside as well.
Quoting WhoDatRR:
This is one heck of a Cat-1. One of my cousins just lost her home, in LaPlace. And another is worried about her house. Is anyone posting a real-time flooding map?


Hope everything is fine with your family. hope this help:
LOL Not a possibility here
Quoting JLPR2:


Actually a bit to the south of where the NHC has it, which is 13.3N.


Really JLPR2? Where do you see it?
I see Isaac surpassed Ernie in ACE. Well done Isaac.
698. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Really PR? Where do you see it?


Well according to that pass, the center is at 12.5n.
Quoting Tazmanian:
98L is looking better and better evere sac

i have too say i think 98L is a TD now








we could be looking at TD 12 by 5am and am thinking 98L could be up too 70 too 80% at the next two


wow this is looking good 98L has in tell friday at 12am too make it too a name storm
See the string of clouds in front of 98L....that's where 98L is going.
Thanks for that!

I was hoping to find more of a street or neighborhood-level map, as the flooding in Laplace is varying by neighborhood. One of my cousin's houses is a loss, and the other is worrying about her home. Both houses are in LaPlace.

Quoting Hurricanes305:


Hope everything is fine with your family. hope this help:
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Weather Channel just mentioned strong High Pressure to north of Isaac (100 degree Temp) -blocking N. Movement
Watch for S.W. Jogs
\
serious? Oy. We need to get Isaac outta here. Supposed to be between us and Baton Rouge around 7. Been having sustained winds around 35 with gusts up to 50 mph. Raining, but not bad. Really feeling bad for those to our East into Mississippi.
As Hurricane Isaac continues to push storm surge onto the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain, a number of houses are flooding in Slidell's Palm Lake subdivision, a Slidell Police Department spokesman said Wednesday afternoon.

Link
Hello everyone, I live in a town right outside of Mobile,Al called Satsuma it has rained and rained all day. Sometimes just a little and sometime pretty durn hard like right know, wind is blowing and can't even see across Hwy 43. All our creeks and bayou are out in the woods or in folks houses. I wanted to say folks be very careful with this because of gators and snakes. All the creepy crawlys. I hope Pat and everyone in Louisiana are ok. I have prayed for you all all day. God Bless you all.

Sheri
scary photo

...TROPICAL UPDATE:...

707. JLPR2
Hmm...

At least the eye is almost gone.
Quoting JLPR2:


Well according to that pass, the center is at 12.5n.


Quite low in latitude this trough may allow it to gain some latitude by tugging on it poleward. How if its not a deep system it might not be able to pick it up complete leaving it behind with the subtropical ballooning over it. However still too early the new 18z GFS run should come out any minute now.
Quoting oracle28:
scary photo



You can blame all the dams up river for that.
Quoting dhcoop59:
It's hard to wade through the political crap to get info on affected areas. I have a friend that's desperately trying to get some info out of Slidell. Does anyone have a report from that area about conditions?

a lot of flooding there. i'm an hour west. a lot of roads flooded over. not hearing anything about wind damage.
Quoting oracle28:
scary photo


good example of why Isaac has done so well. He made more of a "swampfall" than a landfall. And the coastline just keeps eroding....
Here in Lake Chuck, LA, winds are 24mph with up to 37mph gusts and no rain yet. I hope this slow moving puppy peters out soon. Y'all stay safe on the other side of the state.
Hearing reports that a second levee has broke...this time on the north side of Lake Pontchartrain.
Quoting tatoprweather:
See the string of clouds in front of 98L....that's where 98L is going.


Can't base where a a system goes by cloud formation. You gotta look at the patterns and models that change constantly.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Hope everything is fine with your family. hope this help:

Talk about great good luck if this precip model verifies. Everyone knows the midwest desperately needs rain, which Isaac is sending even now but



That little area of rain falling in smack dab middle of Centex is also where the harshest drought is unrelenting, especially considering that little area provides water to millions.



If we in Centex can borrow Isaac for just a couple of days, we promise we will return him to the cornbelt to resume his rainmaking.
Quoting redwagon:

I sense an alarming Cerebellum.
Cerebrum would be more accurate.
From what I'm seeing and hearing from others who know the weather better than I....I'd advise all between NO and Baton Rouge to be on guard. Could be an extended heavy rain event next 24 hours in an area known for downed trees.
Stay safe.
It is really crazy how good he looks still. And he's moving _just a little faster_ than an average horse at a nice, steady walk, if anybody wants to use _that_ picture.

I really hope something in that ridge changes soon, or that someplace in his eye suddenly grows a mountain range. There is only so long structures can generally take this kind of thing, including levees. Any small, undetectable weaknesses that were there are getting hammered for days.

This sucks, y'all.
Where's Chasey been today? I know she's in Slidell.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hearing reports that a second levee has broke...this time on the north side of Lake Pontchartrain.
North shore on the lake(slidell and environs) also need to be on high alert. Thanks TA.
Quoting redwagon:

Talk about great good luck if this precip model verifies. Everyone knows the midwest desperately needs rain, which Isaac is sending even now but



That little area of rain falling in smack dab middle of Centex is also where the harshest drought is unrelenting, especially considering that little area provides water to millions.



If we in Centex can borrow Isaac for just a couple of days, we promise we will return him to the cornbelt to resume his rainmaking.


Not a really good map but could be verified once this is all said and done!
Link

Link to a video from the North Shore
is it just me or did the center completly stop/ drift a bit south, it could be the convection easing into the eye though
Latest from Louisiana

Army Corps of Engineers said it wouldn't be able to lend an opinion until Thursday morning on whether blowing a hole in the east bank levee of Plaquemines Parish would help drain the flooded east side of the parish.
More than 600,000 homes and businesses were without power.
Twenty-two hospitals across the state are operating on generator power.
Storm surge of 11 feet reported in Shell Beach, La.
All flights are canceled at New Orleans International Airport.
Mississippi River at Baton Rouge was up 8.5 feet in 24 hours.
Officials have shut off water to LaPlace after concerns that water from Lake Pontchartrain could contaminate the water system.
Many parishes have extended their curfews and school closures.
Authorities in Plaquemines Parish have ordered a mandatory evacuation for a portion of the west bank of the Mississippi River. The evacuation affects people living from Venice north to the Oakville floodgate on Louisiana Highway 23. A shelter was to open at noon in Belle Chasse.
I agree that the dams may be a partial part of the problem but no the sole problem ! If you fly over the coast or use Google Earth, you will see decades worth of canals and channels that were dredged to facilitate oil and gas production. I am definitely not blaiming the oil companies, but it would be nice if they would return the environment to what it was before they arrived ! JMO
Quoting 4waters:


just the most recent from TWC - initial flooding bc of the lake inflow. expect winds to begin pushing the water from the lake, north in a few hours. the combination does not look good. leaving probably a good idea if you can.


Thank you. It's my friend's MIL who is 76 and she can't reach her by either landline or cell.
Quoting alaina1085:
Link

Link to a video from the North Shore


Wow, I really hope everyone is okay.
Dang, is this video REAL? :O

Quoting Articuno:
Dang, is this video REAL? :O

No.That is during hurricane Dolly four years ago.


Is anyone else waiting for Isaac to die?.
North side of Lake Pontchartrain, just south of Coventry, LA.
Quoting groundedpilot:
I agree that the dams may be a partial part of the problem but no the sole problem ! If you fly over the coast or use Google Earth, you will see decades worth of canals and channels that were dredged to facilitate oil and gas production. I am definitely not blaiming the oil companies, but it would be nice if they would return the environment to what it was before they arrived ! JMO


Problem is that the natural sedimentary cycle that made most of that land was ruined due to water being diverted to other areas upstream for irrigation, flood control, etc... No one ever thought to think of what this would do in the long run.
Quoting alaina1085:
Link

Link to a video from the North Shore


Carolinas and the gulf coast in general have been the targets for tropical system lately. I haven't had a hurricane in Florida since 2005 (pending on if Beryl is going to be upgraded this offseason) and especially South Florida.
Quoting dhcoop59:


Thank you. It's my friend's MIL who is 76 and she can't reach her by either landline or cell.

doesn't seem like an overreaction to worry, esp given her age. its already flooding, and it will be worse than it is now.
Quoting washingtonian115:
No.That is during hurricane Dolly four years ago.


Is anyone else waiting for Isaac to die?.

Really?
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Not a really good map but could be verified once this is all said and done!

It's a shocking map, Centex atmo has been running precip away for so long (18 months) it's astonishing to see any map with any accumulation for us.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Where's Chasey been today? I know she's in Slidell.


Slidell is having some flood issues, though I don't think I've heard anything awful yet. Just might be enough to be keeping her quite busy.
Quoting Articuno:

Really?
Yes.That is dolly.The video was shot in South Padre Island.
Quoting Michfan:


You can blame all the dams up river for that.


It's Bush's fault (kidding, just carrying on the political trend, forgive me).

yeah, everything I've read points to the lack of beneficial sediment from flooding (i.e. flood-control dams like you said) and continental shifting.
Quoting Articuno:
Dang, is this video REAL? :O



This could be Gustav back in 2008 note the error in the title ''Hurricane Tropical Storm Isaac.'' Anyways Insane video.
Quoting Articuno:
Dang, is this video REAL? :O


Someone said in the comments it's from 2008's Hurricane Dolly.
Just east of Bay St Louis, just a few ft off record. Looks like it is going down now that the tide is going out.

Quoting redwagon:

Talk about great good luck if this precip model verifies. Everyone knows the midwest desperately needs rain, which Isaac is sending even now but



That little area of rain falling in smack dab middle of Centex is also where the harshest drought is unrelenting, especially considering that little area provides water to millions.



If we in Centex can borrow Isaac for just a couple of days, we promise we will return him to the cornbelt to resume his rainmaking.

Take him away, please
744. debrr
Levee problems anywhere near Lake Okeechobee are of great concern, I would think. The Palm Beach County levee mentioned in a recent post is only a couple dozen miles from that massive TOXIC lake.

I don't know the condition of the levees before the rains, but a 1928 hurricane-induced breach of the levees killed 2,500 people and flooded hundreds of square miles.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


This could be Gustav back in 2008 note the error in the title ''Hurricane Tropical Storm Isaac.'' Anyways Insane video.

Well, it was a Hurricane and a TS.. but yeah.
Quoting hurricanehanna:
\
serious? Oy. We need to get Isaac outta here. Supposed to be between us and Baton Rouge around 7. Been having sustained winds around 35 with gusts up to 50 mph. Raining, but not bad. Really feeling bad for those to our East into Mississippi.


Yep! Unfortunately I don't think it is moving at all in my opinion. I'm just basing that on radar though. It is NW of where it was yesterday but not by much..
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Hello everyone, I live in a town right outside of Mobile,Al called Satsuma it has rained and rained all day. Sometimes just a little and sometime pretty durn hard like right know, wind is blowing and can't even see across Hwy 43. All our creeks and bayou are out in the woods or in folks houses. I wanted to say folks be very careful with this because of gators and snakes. All the creepy crawlys. I hope Pat and everyone in Louisiana are ok. I have prayed for you all all day. God Bless you all.

Sheri

Sheri, you stay safe!
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Carolinas and the gulf coast in general have been the targets for tropical system lately. I haven't had a hurricane in Florida since 2005 (pending on if Beryl is going to be upgraded this offseason) and especially South Florida.


Wilma was the last official Hurricane to strike Fla. It's been 7 years. My area, NE Dade county averages a strike or near pass every 6 years. It's the second most Hurricane prone area (in the U.S.) according to statistics, first being the outer banks of North Carolina.
Lakefront Airport 11:53 Light Snow Fog/Mist and Windy 80ºF 76ºF 87% E 51 G 64 29.14 in


I guess the snow is melting as it hits the ground. LOL
750. CJ5
98L consolidating nicely. We could be surprised with a name tomorrow.




You can see here how badly blocked Issac is and why he is moving so slow. There is just no way he is breaking through that. Its present at all levels of the atmosphere. Until that trough comes through hes basically stuck.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hearing reports that a second levee has broke...this time on the north side of Lake Pontchartrain.
A second breach - different one from the one near Madisonville near Guste Island that shore and I mentioned earlier?

The winds now are sending more surge across Lake Pontchartrain from W to E toward the north shore and this will probably be enhanced as the storm moves more inland.

Also, wu blogger sarahjola is up that way, somewhere near Mandeville. Hope she's doing okay.

Quoting ElConando:


Wilma was the last official Hurricane to strike Fla. It's been 7 years. My area, NE Dade county averages a strike or near pass every 6 years. It's the second most Hurricane prone area according to statistics, first being the outer banks of North Carolina.


Are you back in Dade or still in Tally?
Should go up to 70%/80% at the 8pm EDT TWO.

Quoting Michfan:


Problem is that the natural sedimentary cycle that made most of that land was ruined due to water being diverted to other areas upstream for irrigation, flood control, etc... No one ever thought to think of what this would do in the long run.


The Mississippi River Levee System also contributes quite a bit to the problem -- before the Army Corps built the Levees, the river would carry sediment, stirred up in floods, to the delta and replenish the geographic structures (and fertilize the land). Of course, that also meant that, for thousands of miles, farmers and communities along the river had to endure costly/dangerous floods.

MRGO also played a role in lower Mississippi delta land loss, as well.
Lake Pontchartrain level at Mandeville nears record level. At 4PM, level at 7.55,record level was 7.60 on 10/28/85-that would be Hurricane Juan

Link
Quoting mobilebayal:

Sheri, you stay safe!


I am, you to where are you located at? I hope stormsurgeon is ok, I think that's his name, I think he lives on Dauphin Island. They lost power last night sometime and there's no access to the Island.
this is really starting to worry me with all the flooding around here. Trees are gonna start up rooting out of the ground like when Georges hit us, I lost a apple,peach,pecan,walnut tree because of him.

Sheri
Quoting debrr:
Levee problems anywhere near Lake Okeechobee are of great concern, I would think. The Palm Beach County levee mentioned in a recent post is only a couple dozen miles from that massive TOXIC lake.

I don't know the condition of the levees before the rains, but a 1928 hurricane-induced breach of the levees killed 2,500 people and flooded hundreds of square miles.


The levee around Lake Okeechobee was massively rebuilt following the 1928
hurricane. The levees that existed around the lake prior to then were nothing at all like what was built there afterward, they were much smaller and far less well built.

The issues surrounding levees in the Lake Okeechobee area today have to do with the age of the structure(s) and the possibility that a catastrophic flooding event could cause the system to fail as a result. The same problem exists in many other areas around the country, including the Sacramento Valley area of California.

As for the lake being toxic, I think that situation is being slowly improved now as a result of recent efforts such as the Kissimmee River restoration project, for example. A few years back, US Sugar agreed to sell their massive properties to the west and south of the lake, in the Clewiston area, in order for the state and federal government to expand their Everglades restoration program. I believe that once that is all said and done the water quality in Lake Okeechobee will also be improved.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Should go up to 70%/80% at the 8pm EDT TWO.


if it become leslie before friday, we will tie up with 2004 for most ts in august
theirs's was bonnie-jeanne i think
ours could be ernesto- leslie
Quoting Michfan:

oh no
Quoting Michfan:

barely moving
I can see the east side rain bandas and we just had another moderate squall pass through but winds are currently down significantly in mid New Orleans with light rain. Winds on my street on the high end of breeze.

Damage to this area is minimal, no street flooding, one bamboo cluster down. No significant limbs. Power back on in our immediate neighborhood. I guess the racetrack is an "essential facility".

Many other significant problems from WWL-AM: back flooding from the lake in LaPlace and water in Mandeville (north shore lake front, no levees, perennial problem with strong northerlies. Only lakefront gauge at New Basin Canal on the south shore near Orleans/Jefferson border shows tide at 6.3 feet (high tide Sunday 1.5 ft). So there is a lot of extra water in the Lake Pontchartrain driven west and north flooding LaPlace and the northshore.

There is a dusk-to-dawn curfew tonight. Good luck enforcing that in the French Quarter.

Wow, watching the Weather Channel this whole time you would think we were having the weather equivalent of World War 3!!!!!!!!!!!!
TCFA issued for 98L.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 37.6W TO 15.1N 45.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 37.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSEIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. AT 291830Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA
OF MODERATE CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING OR REISSUED AS REQUIRED
BY 301900Z.//

Quoting dhcoop59:
It's hard to wade through the political crap to get info on affected areas. I have a friend that's desperately trying to get some info out of Slidell. Does anyone have a report from that area about conditions?
I have been trying to reach a friend of mine from over there all day both by land line and cell...no luck here.
Quoting ElConando:


Wilma was the last official Hurricane to strike Fla. It's been 7 years. My area, NE Dade county averages a strike or near pass every 6 years. It's the second most Hurricane prone area (in the U.S.) according to statistics, first being the outer banks of North Carolina.


2nd most prone area? By who's standards? Any area along the gulf coast, from Pensacola to Galveston, would beg to strongly disagree. South Florida has had a pass since Andrew. Wilma was a bad deal mostly due to the incredibly inferior infrastructure thanks to FL P&L. Pitiful really
GFS so far basically keeps Issac parked over LA for the next 24 hours. Not good.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)



If the color is QPE (quantitative precipitation estimate or model forecast precipitation) then WRF looks unrealistic for 98L. It develops it into a strong TS and looks like CAT 1 later, but the precip field is very asymmetric (and seems light as well) through its evolution. This affects both pressure and track in the model.
Quoting redwagon:

It's a shocking map, Centex atmo has been running precip away for so long (18 months) it's astonishing to see any map with any accumulation for us.


I've seen maps like that before...
There's a 20% chance for Saturday.
Otherwise nada
This reminds me of the initial models for Issac when it was about in this spot. Be wary that it might not go out to sea as quickly or at all as the models are pointing out.


Tropical Atl view. 24 hours.


At 2pm





4:35 pm

Is this thing moving at all?!!?!
36 Hours:

Quoting Articuno:
Dang, is this video REAL? :O



Category 1 winds lol??
Quoting opal92nwf:
This reminds me of the initial models for Issac when it was about in this spot. Be wary that it might not go out to sea as quickly or at all as the models are pointing out.


I don't recall seeing a single model to indicate Isaac being a fish storm


48 Hours.
Still getting hammered in Beloxi/Gulfport area. Live!


60 hours.
Quoting Michfan:
GFS so far basically keeps Issac parked over LA for the next 24 hours. Not good.


Until there's something that shifts in that ridge to the N, there is literally _nowhere_ for isaac to go. I'd not be surprised to see him more or less just hang out there for the next 24 hours. I suspect all of the models will do the same.

At this point, we need to hope he starts to really fall apart, I think. Another 24 hours of this is going to be incredibly destructive.


66 hours.
106 for a high in Corpus Christi today.
Unreal for a coastal city, even by Texas standards.


72 Hours.
Quoting opal92nwf:
This reminds me of the initial models for Issac when it was about in this spot. Be wary that it might not go out to sea as quickly or at all as the models are pointing out.


will be another case of how weak it says imo
790. KRL
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
EVERYBODY SHUT UP ABOUT POLITCS NOW


Actually POLITICS directly impacts the damage these storms end up doing. We saw that especially in Katrina.

As a current example here in South Florida 2 heavily flooded areas in Palm Beach County, Wellington and the Acreage, are being impacted by environmental regulation laws created by politics that limit the amount of water that can be pumped out of these flooded communities each day.

The residents are furious and flipping out. Florida's Governor even came down here to help deal with the delays in getting the water pumped.

Quoting fldude99:


2nd most prone area? By who's standards? Any area along the gulf coast, from Pensacola to Galveston, would beg to strongly disagree. South Florida has had a pass since Andrew. Wilma was a bad deal mostly due to the incredibly inferior infrastructure thanks to FL P&L. Pitiful really
This is what the NHC says:

NHC
Quoting Dakster:


Are you back in Dade or still in Tally?


I'm back in Tallahassee for classes.
Quoting KRL:


Actually POLITICS directly impacts the damage these storms end up doing. We saw that especially in Katrina.

As a current example here in South Florida 2 heavily flooded areas in Palm Beach County, Wellington and the Acreage, are being impacted by environmental regulation laws created by politics that limit the amount of water that can be pumped out of these flooded communities each day.

The residents are furious and flipping out. Florida's Governor even came down here to help deal with the delays in getting the water pumped.


Yes but this blog is not about political affects on weather... its about weather... and weather solely... no political talk is accepted and if it is said it will be reported and most likely removed
Quoting SubtropicalHi:
106 for a high in Corpus Christi today.
Unreal for a coastal city, even by Texas standards.

Wow, that's obscene that close to the Gulf!
Well here in Mobile, Al we finally started getting some heavy squalls last night and most of today. Have not lost power through the whole thing in my area although I have heard reports of spotty power outages in the Mobile area. We got lucky it didn't start that strengthening it went through yesterday the day before that or this would have made what is already a terrible situation considerably worse. Hopefully things will turn out good for most that took a much harder hit than myself did. Got to save my storm supplies yet again which is never a bad thing in my book, still a long ways to go this year and hoping the gulf and east coast avoid any storms that may form later. Thoughts and prayers are with everyone involved with this storm and for the ones that in for the flooding rains in the north when it finally decides to leave
Quoting Michfan:


72 Hours.


Stop it!
Interesting.. We have a wind advisory for Galveston. In seabrook at around 3pm it was blowing 25kts steady and gust to 28kts or so. Now it's also cloudy.
Quoting Michfan:


Close call there.
Quoting Neapolitan:
This is what the NHC says:

NHC


I still say that S FL has had a pass since Andrew. Other than Wilma really not much of anything at all. That chart is from 1900
Quoting presslord:


Stop it!


Someone's gotta do it when Keeper isn't around!
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 37.6W TO 15.1N 45.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 37.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSEIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. AT 291830Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA
OF MODERATE CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING OR REISSUED AS REQUIRED
BY 301900Z.//

803. CJ5
98L has some pretty good structure already. It will be interesting to see her in the daylight tomorrow.
Of historical interest, HurricaneIsaac did not make landfall yesterday night on the shipping entrance/exit to the MississippiRiver (southwest of 6LA5) as announced on the NHCAdvisory.
This morning, the NHC re-evaluated&altered their ATCF coordinates such that Isaac's center missed the Mississippi crossing.
That re-evaluation also led to a landfall ~8hours later directly over PortFourchon (immediately west of LA49) instead of the ~4miles(6kilometres) to the ENEast before their correction.

HUM-Houma :: LA49-PortFourchon :: KGNI-GrandIsle :: LS12-Buras :: 17LA-Venice :: 5LA6-SouthwestPass,MississippiRiver

Also a link to an older previous mapping for continuity, cuz I somehow failed to record any newer one.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Is it just me or is it that Isaac has had landfall that the blog is slow? I'd really like some thoughts on what others think the track might be for the next day or two. And I mean the ones who have looked into it with all the factors incorporated.

These guys get paid for their opinions.
The lake Okeechobee levee is in horrible shape. Much worse than people think. It's not actually a levee, it is really a damn, that was constructed as if it were levee. (meaning not strong enough) If you ever drive around the south side of it you can see how high it is and that in fact the road is under the water level on the other side. They have to monitor the lake level very carefully. The Army core opened up the gates on it 2 years ago in anticipation of a storm because the level was too high. The next year we did not have much rainfall and the lake got really low. People blamed it on a drought but the real reason is they drain it because the dike/levee is so weak that it can fail any time the lake reaches too high of a level. If we had the same situation right now with Isaac just sitting over the lake south FL would be a disaster, and most of the western suburbs would be under 6 feet of water.
The GFS shows no strengthening between 84 hours and 96 hours out. Must be a TUTT in that region.

Hard crowd around tonight. Sure ill just type it out then. For those who want to see you can find them here:

Link
Quoting KRL:


Actually POLITICS directly impacts the damage these storms end up doing. We saw that especially in Katrina.

As a current example here in South Florida 2 heavily flooded areas in Palm Beach County, Wellington and the Acreage, are being impacted by environmental regulation laws created by politics that limit the amount of water that can be pumped out of these flooded communities each day.

The residents are furious and flipping out. Florida's Governor even came down here to help deal with the delays in getting the water pumped.



I ultimately agree with you, but right now is a pretty poor time to get into broad political debates, IMO. They're unlikely to convince anyone of anything, they get really pissy, and there are still a whole lot of folks really struggling with this thing. Specific things -- like politics around current floodwaters or response or whatever -- I can see the point to a degree, but I don't see much point right now to sprawling arguments about the national political situation or elections or how anybody is responding outside of the local governments that are responsible for public safety at the moment.

And I say all of that as somebody who pays a lot of attention to politics.

Those who would like to have those discussions now can probably find any number of political blogs discussing it as I type.

This space should stay focused on what's going on with the still-developing and destructive situation unfolding, IMO, with some additional glances at the newer storms that might cause more destruction soon.

My two cents.
Michfan: just to be clear: my issue is not how often you show it...my issue is what it shows
Quoting fldude99:


2nd most prone area? By who's standards? Any area along the gulf coast, from Pensacola to Galveston, would beg to strongly disagree. South Florida has had a pass since Andrew. Wilma was a bad deal mostly due to the incredibly inferior infrastructure thanks to FL P&L. Pitiful really


The statistics I stated are for return period for Hurricanes and can be found on the NHC website. By prone I meant prone more frequently to another hit or near pass, not by how dangerous a tropical cyclone would be for one area or another. Sorry for the confusion. I am well aware the Gulf coast is quite a bit more prone to storm surge damage than say the East coast of Florida is.
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I ultimately agree with you, but right now is a pretty poor time to get into broad political debates, IMO. They're unlikely to convince anyone of anything, they get really pissy, and there are still a whole lot of folks really struggling with this thing. Specific things -- like politics around current floodwaters or response or whatever -- I can see the point to a degree, but I don't see much point right now to sprawling arguments about the national political situation or elections or how anybody is responding outside of the local governments that are responsible for public safety at the moment.

And I say all of that as somebody who pays a lot of attention to politics.

Those who would like to have those discussions now can probably find any number of political blogs discussing it as I type.

This space should stay focused on what's going on with the still-developing and destructive situation unfolding, IMO, with some additional glances at the newer storms that might cause more destruction soon.

My two cents.

Good answer... however even in winter this blog shuld b free of politics... not just wehn Isaac is kicking... he wuld b dissapointed in us :p
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Wow, that's obscene that close to the Gulf!

Just like what TS Lee did to us this time last year, ignited all those fires in Bastrop and Steiner Ranch.
Quoting flcanes:

if it become leslie before friday, we will tie up with 2004 for most ts in august
theirs's was bonnie-jeanne i think
ours could be ernesto- leslie


and we would be tied with the 2005 hurricane season in terms of named storms at the end of August, of course Maria formed on September 1st
All the 23" reports of rain here in Royal Palm Beach, The Acreage, Loxahatchee, Wellington, the NWS said that the amount is very realistic. Seeing the canals today, I wouldn't doubt that amount fell around here.
Quoting presslord:
Michfan: just to be clear: my issue is not how often you show it...my issue is what it shows


Oh i know. Been around long enough to know your sarcasm. So far it looks like it will go just north of the antilles. May dodge this one.
GFS looks to have trended west a little this run, but still well out to sea.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting alaina1085:


At 2pm





4:35 pm

Is this thing moving at all?!!?!
It would not appear that it is but they keep saying moving at 6 mph.
Quoting Doppler22:

Good answer... however even in winter this blog shuld b free of politics... not just wehn Isaac is kicking... he wuld b dissapointed in us :p


I very largely agree, unless there is a really specific political situation relating directly to tropical weather etc.

But I _care less_ at other times. Right now, it seems spectacularly silly.
N.E. of Lake Charles winds gusting to 40 mph - about to come into one of the first rain bands on west side. Power still on but a few interruptions. Sustained winds feel like 25 to 30 mph right now.
Developing tropical cyclone.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
GFS looks to have trended west a little this run, but still well out to sea.



Yes it has trended a bit to the west. Now it has leslie crossing 60W at around 20.5N... which is not good if the trend continues at 00z. Remember 2010 EARL...
Quoting opal92nwf:
This reminds me of the initial models for Issac when it was about in this spot. Be wary that it might not go out to sea as quickly or at all as the models are pointing out.


It's way too early to tell whether 98L will threaten major land areas. Most models move the subtropical ridge east and bring it into the weakness NE of the islands, but this can change over the next few days.

By the way, a terrible tragedy in Braithwaite last night and this morning. Many of these residents lost everything in 2005 or 2008, and it has happened again. My best wishes go out to all the families who have suffered this beast of a storm. And there is still much in the way of heavy rainfall and strong winds to come tonight in SE-ern LA.
45-50 MPH gusts medium rain...how many puppies did pat have?
Quoting ElConando:


I'm back in Tallahassee for classes.


So you missed the Isaac fun (sorta)...

Anyways, glad to see you in the blog. And I agree that OBX and south Florida are usually good hurricane or storm targets. Although I have no data to back it up...
Quoting presslord:
Michfan: just to be clear: my issue is not how often you show it...my issue is what it shows


I thought this was a Weather blog???
Quoting Hurricanes101:


and we would be tied with the 2005 hurricane season in terms of named storms at the end of August, of course Maria formed on September 1st

Which means that we arent going to exactly get Michael by September 1st. With Leslie only being in the Western portion of the Central Islands and Kirk recurving... We will probably not see Michael until Leslie reaches the Turks(If Forecast Verifies).
Quoting Dakster:


I thought this was a Weather blog???

It is... he was posting tropical weather model predictions
This is an example of why we need to be careful with some of our comments here.

This was posted here yesterday

3308. depalma13 2:31 PM GMT on August 28, 2012 +1

Quoting WeatherfanPR:
My thoughts and prayers with all in the path of Isaac. I hope the levees doesn't break this time.




If the levees break, than New Orleans should be abandoned forever. This is a Tropical Storm/barely Cat 1 Hurricane. It is not a life or death situation. It's time for everyone to stop panicing because of a little water and and wind.


I would like to know what are the thoughts of depalma13 right now.
Well there is nothing better to listen to than the hum of generators throughout the neighborhood.... Great sound to put you to sleep. LOL
Quoting GetReal:
Well there is nothing better to listen to than the hum of generators throughout the neighborhood.... Great sound to put you to sleep. LOL


Yea..what's great are the thieves that carry old lawnmowers and replace them with the generators they rip off so you don't wake up during the night...
Quoting fldude99:
Who posted that about the levees in NO? Abandoned forever? That is someone that has no clue..or is a tea party member



More like a recent graduate of the school systems that no longer teach geography and history.
Don't be surprised if 98L is bumped up to 80% at 8pm.
Quoting fldude99:
Who posted that about the levees in NO? Abandoned forever? That is someone that has no clue..or is a tea party member

Stop being a political hack with those kind of broadbrushes. Thanks.
Quoting vince1:

Stop being a political hack with those kind of broadbrushes. Thanks.


Yes sir Mr. blog cop!
Just checkin' to see if the blog is dead inre PostComment
Quoting fldude99:
Who posted that about the levees in NO? Abandoned forever? That is someone that has no clue..or is a tea party member


Dude that was uncalled for. Why tea party member? You think they go around wishing for disasters to affect fellow citizens? Not even most liberals would think that way. Please practice some critical thinking next time before making a comment or you will fall into the same category of the person who made that hateful comment in the first place. You see I am an active Tea Party Member or yeah and I am not an angry white male I'm a disgusted with the government Hispanic male. But I have been praying for New Orleans and if I need to shed some money to help I sure will as well. Don't judge.
Quoting E46Pilot:
The lake Okeechobee levee is in horrible shape. Much worse than people think. It's not actually a levee, it is really a damn, that was constructed as if it were levee. (meaning not strong enough) If you ever drive around the south side of it you can see how high it is and that in fact the road is under the water level on the other side. They have to monitor the lake level very carefully. The Army core opened up the gates on it 2 years ago in anticipation of a storm because the level was too high. The next year we did not have much rainfall and the lake got really low. People blamed it on a drought but the real reason is they drain it because the dike/levee is so weak that it can fail any time the lake reaches too high of a level. If we had the same situation right now with Isaac just sitting over the lake south FL would be a disaster, and most of the western suburbs would be under 6 feet of water.


It would likely be worse than that. There was a time went Isaac was forecast to come right up the center of the state and my first thoughts were of its impact on the lake. Much like, I am sure, those in Nawlin's worry about Lake Pontchartrain for the same reasons. There are a lot of similarities between the two lakes, how they are contained, and what nature does to defeat the aforementioned containment.


Okeechobee Lake Okeechobee Lake levels are not managed in the best interests of the citizens, it is managed from Orlando south by agriculture.. read big sugar.

E46 makes a great point about the vulnerability of the Hoover Dike. Had Wilma crossed the state at 8 miles per hour instead of the 30 mph it did, the dike would have breached. It was very close.

Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Dude that was uncalled for. Why tea party member? You think they go around wishing for disasters to affect fellow citizens? Not even most liberals would think that way. Please practice some critical thinking next time before making a comment or you will fall into the same category of the person who made that hateful comment in the first place. You see I am an active Tea Party Member or yeah and I am not an angry white male I'm a disgusted with the government Hispanic male. But I have been praying for New Orleans and if I need to shed some money to help I sure will as well. Don't judge.


Maybe you would shed some $$ to help, however, what government program would you cut to offset the cost? That is the face of the tea party today & that is what I'm trying to point out.
843. WK5X
Quoting fldude99:


Maybe you would shed some $$ to help, however, what government program would you cut to offset the cost? That is the face of the tea party today & that is what I'm trying to point out.


Why don't you go to a political blog to point it out. This is not the place.
Quoting fldude99:


Maybe you would shed some $$ to help, however, what government program would you cut to offset the cost? That is the face of the tea party today & that is what I'm trying to point out.
Congrats to you. You big baffoon you need to find a political blog. Don't automatically think someone is a tea party person, because they say something stupid. Before you ask, no I am not a tea party person, once again THIS IS NOT A POLITCAL BLOG. Go find one, yes that was a stupid comment that they made, but your comment was just as uncalled for.
Quoting fredric1979:
Congrats to you. You big baffoon you need to find a political blog. Don't automatically think someone is a tea party person, because they say something stupid. Before you ask, no I am not a tea party person, once again THIS IS NOT A POLITCAL BLOG. Go find one, yes that was a stupid comment that they made, but your comment was just as uncalled for.


lol..it's Buffoon, you baffoon. Political comments were being made ways before mine. Just responding
Quoting fldude99:


lol..it's Buffoon, you baffoon. Political comments were being made ways before mine. Just responding

Time for you to hit the hay. It's way past you're bed time, Son.