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Hurricane Isaac continues to organize as it nears landfall

By: Angela Fritz 9:31 PM GMT on August 28, 2012

Isaac gained hurricane status this afternoon after hurricane hunters found winds of 76 mph and a minimum central pressure of 975 mb, and continues to become more organized. In their 5pm EDT update, the National Hurricane Center said Isaac has maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, and is moving northwest at 8 mph--a slow down from yesterday at this time. Satellite loops show that Isaac has gained thunderstorm activity on the southeast side, but is battling dry air to the north. Isaac still appears to be forming an eye wall, though is struggling to do so. Winds have been increasing as Isaac approaches, up to 60 mph has been recorded by buoys close to the shore. Winds off Lake Pontchartrain have varied around 35 mph from the northwest this afternoon. So far New Orleans (KMSY) is seeing wind gusts up to 40 mph, with light rain.


Figure 1. Isaac imagery from the high resolution Terra satellite at 12:30pm EDT, just before becoming a hurricane.

Some rain and thunderstorm activity has reached the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with Isaac just over 100 miles southeast of New Orleans. Radar shows thunderstorms from Pensacola to New Orleans. Storm surge has begun to impact the coast, as well, particularly in Mississippi and Louisiana, where reports are that water is "up to cars" in some areas. Many streets are closed in Ocean Springs and Pascagoula, Florida due to surge flooding.

Water levels so far (above mean):

• Shell Beach, LA: 8 feet
• New Canal Station (New Orleans): 2.7 feet
• Bay St. Louis, MS: 5.6 feet
• Pascagoula, MS: 4.4 feet
• Dauphin Island, AL: 3.7 feet

Hurricane Isaac will likely make landfall tonight as a category 1 around midnight CDT, but will still have enough energy and warm water available to maintain hurricane strength for a few hours inland. Isaac will likely continue to strengthen a bit before landfall, but given the large wind field, rapid intensification is unlikely. The storm surge threat could then continue along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama coasts through mid-afternoon on Wednesday, as winds will continue to blow from the east, and then from south, as the storm moves northwest past New Orleans. Should the peak surge coincide with peak tide, the highest storm surge, anywhere from 6 to 12 feet, is expected in Louisiana and Mississippi. Alabama could see a storm surge around 4 to 8 feet.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast from the HPC through Sunday morning. The lime green bullseye over Gulfport, MS is a value of 15+ inches.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting around 15 inches of rain to fall around Gulfport, Mississippi, and up to 12 inches of rain to fall near New Orleans, Louisiana by Sunday morning. As Isaac tracks north after landfall, it will bring some much-needed rain to the drought-stricken Mississippi Valley region, particularly west of the Mississippi River. While anywhere from 3-5 inches of rain is expected from Arkansas to Indiana by Sunday, and the Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois drought will benefit, this is not a drought buster. The driest parts of the country are in the Central Plains states, and this rain will be too little to have a meaningful impact.

Monitor Hurricane Isaac online:
Track, forecast, and current observations
Radar and weather stations
Satellite
Webcams


Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


So Isaac basically made landfall as a 968 mb Cat 1; wow, if he had gotten together on Sunday, New Orleans would have been jacked up..
He has not made landfall yet. He is stalled and drifting south as of right now off the coast. I am not counting a little outcrop of the Mississippi river as a real landfall. Was only over it for about 20-30 minutes anyway.
Quoting dogsgomoo:
Er. No. What? That's not on @TWCBreaking.
he said it was 2 ft from the top of the levee not coming over yet.
OFFICIAL! **We have Tropical Storm Kirk**

45 MPH Winds.

Breaking News Storm ‏@breakingstorm
Entergy New Orleans Inc. is reporting more than 190,000 customers without power in Louisiana - @breakingweather
1505. Gorty
Quoting alvarig1263:
OFFICIAL! **We have Tropical Storm Kirk**



Many named system in August.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
He has not made landfall yet. He is stalled and drifting south as of right now off the coast.

Link
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
He has not made landfall yet. He is stalled and drifting south as of right now off the coast.


Splitting hairs bro...
Quoting alvarig1263:
OFFICIAL! **We have Tropical Storm Kirk**

11/4/0 not bad.
Hurricane ISAAC
...CENTER OF ISAAC OVER WATER AGAIN... ...HEAVY RAINS...HIGH WINDS...AND STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE... ...U.S. Warnings in Effect...
9:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 28
Location: 28.9°N 89.7°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
1510. angiest
Quoting IndySuz:

TWC said they were the first parish to order mandatory evacuation.


With good reason. According to WP, a little over 65% of the Parish is water. What's left, isn't far above water.
Quoting WetBankGuy:


Looks like a north jog on Slidell radar, local Met says west. Just wobbling I think.

If anyone gets any near-time data out of recon please post it ASAP for all the power goes out in NOLA.

Thanx.



here is a link to wwltv no

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/interactive-radar/ra dar?map=sela124&c=n
1512. guygee
Quoting robj144:

Ummm... shouldn't they be designed exactly the opposite way? You know, with the concrete on the outside, so that wouldn't happen.
The waves would quickly erode the earthen support from wave action and currents if the earth was on the inside. Concrete on the waterside, definitely the better design choice.
...CENTER OF ISAAC OVER WATER AGAIN... ...HEAVY RAINS...HIGH WINDS...AND STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE... ...U.S. Warnings in Effect...
9:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 28
Location: 28.9°N 89.7°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
wow, 40kt initial intensity
1515. angiest
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
He has not made landfall yet. He is stalled and drifting south as of right now off the coast.


There was an official landfall, a small scrap of delta land.
Quoting alvarig1263:
OFFICIAL! **We have Tropical Storm Kirk**


Official! Fish!!
Quoting Max1023:
HH had to turn around and go back south to find the center - it literally tracked SSW between fixes. Something seems a little off here. Every hour Issac spends over water makes it worse for LA.


RELOCATION, as I suggested?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
He has not made landfall yet. He is stalled and drifting south as of right now off the coast.

According to the NHC he supposedly did.
000
WTNT54 KNHC 290159
TCEAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
900 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC OVER WATER AGAIN...
...HEAVY RAINS...HIGH WINDS...AND STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE...

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF ISAAC HAS WOBBLED
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
BACK OVER WATER TO THE WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

AT 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA...OR ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA.

A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH WAS JUST OBSERVED
AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW ORLEANS. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 67 MPH
WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE NATIONAL OCEAN
SERVICE AUTOMATED STATION IN GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...A
WIND GUST TO 71 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GALLIANO LOUISIANA.

A STORM SURGE OF 9.9 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT A NATIONAL
OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA. A STORM SURGE
OF 6.2 FEET WAS OBSERVED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE IN
WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...28.9N 89.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BERG
1520. robj144
Quoting guygee:
The waves would quickly erode the earthen support from wave action and currents if the earth was on the inside. Concrete on the waterside, definitely the better design choice.


Sorry, I actually misinterpreted the construction.
Quoting angiest:


There was an official landfall, a small scrap of delta land.
Regardless, ...CENTER OF ISAAC OVER WATER AGAIN... ...HEAVY RAINS...HIGH WINDS...AND STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE.
I live on the westbank of new orleans and we are getting at least 60 to 70 mph gust from it right now .
1523. GPTGUY
This exactly seven years ago


Latest Vortex Message

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 01:46Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 32
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 1:26:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28%uFFFD45'N 89%uFFFD37'W (28.75N 89.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 89 miles (143 km) to the SSE (163%uFFFD) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,148m (3,766ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (224%uFFFD) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 308%uFFFD at 78kts (From the NW at ~ 89.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SSW/SW (214%uFFFD) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18%uFFFDC (64%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 1,513m (4,964ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22%uFFFDC (72%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21%uFFFDC (70%uFFFDF)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:49:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22%uFFFDC (72%uFFFDF) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the ESE (104%uFFFD) from the flight level center


Pressure has leveled off and the eye has become too ill defined for recon to identify.
Kirk







Supposed to be a fish storm.. so we will c!
If Isaac has indeed stalled, it could not have chosen a worse place to do so with strong onshore winds from the core of the storm moving up the Mississippi River and East into "Lake" (Estuary) Pontchartrain, and Lake Bourne. This is also while the core has tightened giving Isaac the last minute opportunity to at least keep it strength or possibly intensify as it attempts to mix the winds further down toward the surface. Not to mention the ever increasing rainfall/fresh water flooding event.

Be safe!
FM
Quoting fredric1979:
he said it was 2 ft from the top of the levee not coming over yet.
the corp of engineers says the water is now receding Plaquemines Parrish Pres. confirmed on TWC.
Scott McClellan ‏@alastormspotter
WWL 870AM reporting numerous trees down in downtown New Orleans, along with thousands of power outages. #alwx #isaac
I think it's premature to say that the worst of the storm surge is over.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...not sure why it would rise and then fall like that.


I'm starting to get the same sick feeling I had during Katrina.

I don't have a problem with trying to protect infrastructure and structures with the Levy system. But it is very concerning to have people remaining in areas that could flood if a Levy fails, or if water finds a way to by-pass the protections.



1531. Mikla
72kts (82kts gust) at Station LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA link
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane
Mobile County, AL EMA: west end of island is under water #Isaac #ALwx

Andrea Butera ‏@AndreaButera
Per the Mobile County, AL EMA: The west end of Dauphin Island is under water. Everyone has evacuated. #Isaac #ALwx


This is actually not very surprising. The West End of Dauphin Island goes under water every time. Small storms, big storms, etc.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it's premature to say that the worst of the storm surge is over.


Agree, the worst storm surge should be from 6-9 AM tomorrow morning, August 29, 20XX
Sound Familiar?
Quoting alvarig1263:
OFFICIAL! **We have Tropical Storm Kirk**

Let the Star Trek jokes begin!
Nearly 100,000 without power in southeastern Louisiana as Hurricane Isaac makes landfall -

Link
Quoting Diabellical:
any other NOLAs still up?
70119
20:54 Local
pressure holding 993mb
power intermittent


Still Rocking and Rolling. 70119. I have seen and heard quite a few transformers blow....
Quoting fmhurricane2009:
If Isaac has indeed stalled, it could not have chosen a worse place to do so with strong onshore winds from the core of the storm moving up the Mississippi River and East into "Lake" (Estuary) Pontchartrain, and Lake Bourne. This is also while the core has tightened giving Isaac the last minute opportunity to at least keep it strength or possibly intensify as it attempts to mix the winds further down toward the surface. Not to mention the ever increasing rainfall/fresh water flooding event.

Be safe!
FM
If it stalls long enough it could do some upwelling.
Quoting southernbell72:
I live on the westbank of new orleans and we are getting at least 60 to 70 mph gust from it right now .


yeah we are getting 60 mph gusts: eastbank midcity.
1539. angiest
Odd. Lake Charles radar appears to be operating in clear air mode.
It is low tide right now. The worst will be around 8am tomorrow morning local time.
This is allegedly snapped in Port Sulphur, via Twitter:
So much for prediction of Kirk being the season's first major hurricane.
1543. Patrap
Miss Nola Roux has delivered one Boy, Isaac, and now a gurl..!
Quoting NOLAGOLF:


Still Rocking and Rolling. 70119. I have seen and heard quite a few transformers blow....


Just heard several myself: assuming same few. Keep safe. Bayou/Orleans Ave. here. Streets clear.
KNEW 290053Z 03041G52KT 3/4SM -SN BKN024 BKN028 OVC035 A2940 RMK AO2 PK WND 03057/0006 SNB17 SLP951 P0025 FZRANO



Issac is now producing snow, according to the New Orleans Lake Front airport. Terrifying...
Quoting tennisgirl08:


I was wondering the same thing. Mainly because Debby had no problem sliding into a tiny weakness to her NE.

My only guess is that Isaac is not strong enough, or either he's so large that he is trying to bring up a load that is too heavy. Or too wide. WIDE LOAD...haha.


no time to be making fun of fat people. this is a whether emegency for many people.
1548. docrod
Link

best of luck NOLA
< yea it is stalled , bob breck is on right now . we have trees down , down the street from me
waiting for power to go out
Quoting Patrap:
Miss Nola Roux has delivered one Boy, Isaac, and now a gurl..!
Congratulations :)


News...

http://www.nola.com/
Can someone give me a good reason why they think the storm is moving at 8 mph?????



All dem gators down in Plaquemines Parish dun got sucked up into dat starm, and they dun got fightin' mad twirlin' 'round up in dat thang! Dey givin' ol' Isaac a great big tough time, but I tink dey's losin'!


Seriously, Isaac over water still is trouble! I've a WAG I'm developing and will share it shortly when I review a few things.

BTW, talked to GetReal - he's still with us, no power still and getting sustained 50mph winds, debris flying. He's going to try to check soon from his car.



I rarely post but often read here--just wanted to report from Charleston that we still have rain falling, continuous since 10 am, and the whole city is flooded as hell. I saw cars in water deeper than the top of their tires, and one in a lower lot with water to its rear-view mirrors. We had a record daily maximum rainfall. It's a mess! Is this bands from Isaac or unrelated storm system?
Quoting robj144:


With a large storm surge it could. Why do you think this could never happen?


because once the water is a milimeter over the levee then it's over the levee. Saying two feet over a levee would probably not occur... unless...
Quoting tennisgirl08:


This is actually not very surprising. The West End of Dauphin Island goes under water every time. Small storms, big storms, etc.
they have spent so much money on sand refurbishing and building a berm only to have a storm take it out rather quickly
stalled............. awwww snap
Quoting southernbell72:
< yea it is stalled , bob breck is on right now . we have trees down , down the street from me
waiting for power to go out


Baaa Baaaa, Bob has lost his mind.

Its no surprise Issac has stalled. Been a possibility for a week now.
Quoting thesweetlycool:
KNEW 290053Z 03041G52KT 3/4SM -SN BKN024 BKN028 OVC035 A2940 RMK AO2 PK WND 03057/0006 SNB17 SLP951 P0025 FZRANO



Issac is now producing snow, according to the New Orleans Lake Front airport. Terrifying...


roflmao!
Quoting Patrap:
Miss Nola Roux has delivered one Boy, Isaac, and now a gurl..!


Thanks for the update - post the pics on FB for us in the am if you have a chance! Stay safe - signing off for now, will check again later in the night or early am. ps - tell jr thanks for posting earlier while you rested for a bit!
Quoting Abacosurf:
Can someone give me a good reason why they think the storm is moving at 8 mph?????
NHC uses long term average motion.
Brad Panovich WCNC ‏@wxbrad
MS river at Venice continues to rise as the surge works upriver. http://twitpic.com/aork1b #Isaac
A couple of people have been saying that it has indeed stalled, but the NHC position statement issued 10 minutes ago is saying that its still moving NW at 8mph...

Edit: post 1561 addresses this.
1564. Wiebel
Quoting guygee:
The waves would quickly erode the earthen support from wave action and currents if the earth was on the inside. Concrete on the waterside, definitely the better design choice.

This fully depends on the actual construction. A hard wall like concrete induces scour which can lead to failure. Levees with grass are able to withstand wave action for a certain amount of time, all depends on the construction.

During Katrina many concrete walls failed. Not because they were not high enough, but due to scour around the foundation.
1565. Ryuujin
http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3qodgc/

Thought you'd guys would like this.

Sorry I can't get it to post right.

Nearly 150,000 power outages reported as Isaac moves closer

Isaac slows, now forecast to pass New Orleans at 1 a.m.

Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune

Isaac has N.O. drainage system running on its own power

Richard Rainey, The Times-Picayune

1567. angiest
Quoting Abacosurf:
Can someone give me a good reason why they think the storm is moving at 8 mph?????


The apparently stall hasn't been going on long enough for the hurricane center to adjust their motion estimate.
Quoting southernbell72:
< yea it is stalled , bob breck is on right now . we have trees down , down the street from me
waiting for power to go out


What Part of the westbank. Im in Terrytown.
Quoting Abacosurf:
Can someone give me a good reason why they think the storm is moving at 8 mph?????


oh...it's moving 8 mph...it's just doing it in a circle.
Wow.

Better hope the Weather Channel RPM model is wrong.

The way Brian Norcross just showed that thing, it will be nearly 21 hours before the entire eyewall is on land. Basically, it's just going to sit around in that area right there and do what it does for the entire time.



The steering hints at a hard stall IMO, because the trough has not come far enough down to break a big enough weakness open, and now the ridges will be working against one another to steer Isaac.

It's possible it could get jammed there for days until the next trough comes, or until it's able to erode the ridges by itself...
Quoting Skyepony:
It is low tide right now. The worst will be around 8am tomorrow morning local time.


And according to the NHC, Isaac will still be in the same general vicinity tomorrow morning. Not good!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it's premature to say that the worst of the storm surge is over.


Especially when it's moving extremely slowly.
Patrap, given the speed of Isaac, the puppies might be weaned before the storm gets on out of there.    TWC said  NW at 8mph. 

Plaquemines parish Mississippi levee was close to over topping, but the water level has gone down and Corps says worst is over for them.
Quoting Diabellical:


Just heard several myself: assuming same few. Keep safe. Bayou/Orleans Ave. here. Streets clear.


City Park/Dumaine. Be safe as well!
Quoting justsouthofnola:
stalled............. awwww snap
Lets hope he undergoes some upwelling and weakens.
Isn't the newly formed TS supposed to be Joyce instead of Kirk? Am missing something here. All my prayers to those in Isaac's path.
1577. divdog
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



All dem gators down in Plaquemines Parish dun got sucked into that starm, and they dun got fightin' mad twirlin' 'round up in that thang! Dey givin' ol' Isaac a big a tough time, but I tink dey's losin'!


Seriously, Isaac over water still is trouble! I've a WAG I'm developing and will share it shortly when I review a few things.

BTW, talked to GetReal - he's still with us, no power still and getting sustained 50mph winds, debris flying. He's going to try to check soon from his car.



Look forward to what u have to say. Info has helped in the past ..does it have to do with a change in direction related to current close to stalled system
Quoting muddertracker:


oh...it's moving 8 mph...it's just doing it in a circle.

Isaac is doing donuts
Quoting Levi32:


The tide is still going out I think, but remember the heavy rain upstream could make the river rise from the upstream direction, increasing the pressure against the still oncoming surge, so the water could rise again.
Quoting Levi32:


HMM, I am not sure that would be a huge factor... for at least 24 hours. At least around here in the main river (merrimack in MA) takes about 36 hours to respond to rains in southern New Hampshire.
Time: 01:55:00Z
Coordinates: 29.8833N 88.8333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.7 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,454 meters (~ 4,770 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.6 mb (~ 29.43 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 127° at 69 knots (From the SE at ~ 79.3 mph)
Air Temp: 17.0°C* (~ 62.6°F*)
Dew Pt: 17.0°C* (~ 62.6°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 73 knots (~ 83.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 79 knots* (~ 90.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr* (~ 0.28 in/hr*

WOW....can't be contaminated...

Conditions at SPLL1 as of
(8:00 pm CDT on 08/28/2012)

Station SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06

Shorebased Tower
28.867 N 90.483 W (28°52'0" N 90°29'0" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Anemometer height: 40.4 m above site elevation

0100 GMT on 08/29/2012: Unit of Measure: English observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 60.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 76.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.8 °F
Visibility (VIS): 0.1 nmi
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 52.4 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 56.3 kts
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

Drop the Hammer Isaac!
Quoting fredric1979:he said it was 2 ft from the top of the levee not coming over yet.
I got that. The thing about the two feet from topping was a real tweet. I was quoting:
Quoting Category5HitsFl: This is breaking news from the weather channel twitter: @TWCBreaking Water coming over the MS River levee in Plaquemines Parish says President Billy Nungesser. "We weren't prepared it."

Category5HitsFl's quote is not on the @TWCBreaking twitter channel (nor on @twc_hurricane or @nolaready). So either it was posted and removed by @TWCBreaking because it was a mistaken statement or it's made up. With the grammar error I would guess it's made up.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Wow.

Better hope the Weather Channel RPM model is wrong.

The way Brian Norcross just showed that thing, it will be nearly 21 hours before the entire eyewall is on land. Basically, it's just going to sit around in that area right there and do what it does for the entire time.



The steering hints at a hard stall IMO, because the trough has not come far enough down to break a big enough weakness open, and now the ridges will be working against one another to steer Isaac.

It's possible it could get jammed there for days until the next trough comes, or until it's able to erode the ridges by itself...


Very true! Or either he weakens enough and the ridges close in and he nudges west.
1584. angiest
Quoting RTSplayer:
Wow.

Better hope the Weather Channel RPM model is wrong.

The way Brian Norcross just showed that thing, it will be nearly 21 hours before the entire eyewall is on land. Basically, it's just going to sit around in that area right there and do what it does for the entire time.



The steering hints at a hard stall IMO, because the trough has not come far enough down to break a big enough weakness open, and now the ridges will be working against one another to steer Isaac.

It's possible it could get jammed there for days until the next trough comes, or until it's able to erode the ridges by itself...


I saw those radar models earlier and thought it looked a lot like what GFS was saying a few days ago, with the eye skirting along the coast for a day or more before going in.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Time: 01:55:00Z
Coordinates: 29.8833N 88.8333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.7 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,454 meters (~ 4,770 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.6 mb (~ 29.43 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 127° at 69 knots (From the SE at ~ 79.3 mph)
Air Temp: 17.0°C* (~ 62.6°F*)
Dew Pt: 17.0°C* (~ 62.6°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 73 knots (~ 83.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 79 knots* (~ 90.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr* (~ 0.28 in/hr*

WOW....can't be contaminated...

But flight level winds were lower, lol.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Wow.

Better hope the Weather Channel RPM model is wrong.

The way Brian Norcross just showed that thing, it will be nearly 21 hours before the entire eyewall is on land. Basically, it's just going to sit around in that area right there and do what it does for the entire time.



The steering hints at a hard stall IMO, because the trough has not come far enough down to break a big enough weakness open, and now the ridges will be working against one another to steer Isaac.

It's possible it could get jammed there for days until the next trough comes, or until it's able to erode the ridges by itself...
Sounds like Debby and looks like Flooding will be very bad, quite possibly historic. I hope not.
No words on the EATL wave lol
Quoting Ypere104:
Isn't the newly formed TS supposed to be Joyce instead of Kirk? Am missing something here. All my prayers to those in Isaac's path.
Joyce was torn apart by shear. Only a TS for about 12 hrs.
Quoting leftlink:


RELOCATION, as I suggested?


No.

Brian Norcross mentioned it, said it's probably a wobble.

The eye may be orbiting around inside the outer band.

It's not a measurement error.

It either wobbled or turned.

We'll just have to wait to find out which
1590. robj144
Quoting UnobtrusiveTroll10:


because once the water is a milimeter over the levee then it's over the levee. Saying two feet over a levee would probably not occur... unless...


Check post 1551... Do you think that water is going 1 mm over the wall?
I kinda think NHC is....idk.... The models say further west than NOLA...but they they other wise. The storm has stalled...or moving wsw from what i heard...but NHC says still moving NW. I dont get it....i really dont.
I see Isaac is still over water, despite being only a few miles away from the coastline when I left. To me, it looks like the inner eyewall was wobbling around inside the outer eyewall and finally died off while the much larger outer eyewall contracted to a more moderate size and is in the process of taking over.

Thank god I can read this blog instead of listening to the GOP convention, puke! And I vote Rep. Let's not mention The TWC, barf!
Quoting RTSplayer:
Wow.

Better hope the Weather Channel RPM model is wrong.

The way Brian Norcross just showed that thing, it will be nearly 21 hours before the entire eyewall is on land. Basically, it's just going to sit around in that area right there and do what it does for the entire time.



The steering hints at a hard stall IMO, because the trough has not come far enough down to break a big enough weakness open, and now the ridges will be working against one another to steer Isaac.

It's possible it could get jammed there for days until the next trough comes, or until it's able to erode the ridges by itself...


There were several runs of GFS, at the least, that did this sort of thing while the storm was still way off. I just refused to take it as anything near likely. :O

Hope it pushes itself through someplace soon, because too many hours hanging out in there is really not, um, good.
So if it stalled it could turn either way now. What stalling mean? Is it about to make a turn?
grand isle mayor on local news reporting over 100 mph winds sustained....
Quoting fmhurricane2009:


I don't know if it has continued to rise, I would need to check the Hydrological Prediction center. I can garuntee you that the water will rise after 11PM. I really don't want this to stall over water. It's coming through at low tide and I really don't want a strong category 1 hurricane, (that could still have opportunity to mix higher winds down to the center with a strong downburst) with a category three storm surge still coming in at high tide. The levees are starting to come under stress, and as the tide rises, if this continues I wouldn't be surprised about the possibility of a breach into SE LA. If Isaac had 24 more hours over water... this could have been Katrina, and more than likely a category 2/3 storm. As bad as it is now, it could have been MUCH worse.

I can pretty much assure you that if a levee breaks, this will be the last Isaac.
List of I storms retired since 2001
2001: Isis
2002: Isabel
2003: Isidore
2004: Ivan
2008: Ike
2010: Igor
2011: Irene
2012: Isaac?
Over half of the storms since 2001 that were I storms were retired
They really should just retire the I letter alltogether. And whoever came up with Igor was nuts.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
So if it stalled it could turn either way now. What stalling mean? Is it about to make a turn?


It actually has stalled quite to a stop..its just meandering to the west.
I looked on @TWCbreaking and that tweet was nowhere to be found.  I don't trust random postings of big news on any blog.   Need to use the Google to do a little checking yourselves. If it is really big news, not only one source will be posting it.
Quoting Abacosurf:
Seems like questionable info considering the south wind has yet to reach the mouth of the Mississippi river.


No, not really. The initial surge that built for 3 days over the open gulf had to peak at some point, when the water levels built enough gravity would naturally take a lot of that water back out to sea where the winds have shifted to the southwest.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

But flight level winds were lower, lol.


surface winds can be higher than flight level in a hurricane???? I never knew that.
DAMNED YOU ISAAC!
1603. angiest
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I see Isaac is still over water, despite being only a few miles away from the coastline when I left. To me, it looks like the inner eyewall was wobbling around inside the outer eyewall and finally died off while the much larger outer eyewall contracted to a more moderate size and is in the process of taking over.



EWRC?

I was noticing that on the radar too. Do cat 1 hurricanes normally go through an EWRC?
1604. Patrap
Seems Isaac is "whiffer-dilling" in place mostly on the long loop.

Jr caught a nice Transformer KAboom on video just now. A Very Impressive one.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
So if it stalled it could turn either way now. What stalling mean? Is it about to make a turn?

Stalling means it stopped. And yes it could turn west now. The models favor it.
Quoting Thing342:
Joyce was torn apart by shear. Only a TS for about 12 hrs.




Thanks I miss that one
Looky here Nawleans. We, in Charleston, feel for you and all that. But we're getting tired of suffering through YOUR weather. Would ya mind calling Issac home?
Thanks.
Quoting Ypere104:
Isn't the newly formed TS supposed to be Joyce instead of Kirk? Am missing something here. All my prayers to those in Isaac's path.


The new depression already became Kirk. Joyce formed last week but degenerated a while after being designated.
is there anything else this storm can surprise us with???
1612. robj144
Quoting Hurricane12:


The new depression is forecast to become Kirk. Joyce formed last week but degenerated a while after being designated.


It is Kirk.
Latest HRRR has Isaac drifting along the coastline for the next 15 hours.

23Z HRRR Composite Reflectivity
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac sure is unique.



Lol!
I wasn't saying earlier that the danger from surge was over, just that the Army Corps had told the parish president that for that particular portion of their levee system, the worst was over.    It is going to be an agonizing 24 hours for the Gulf Coast and you are all in my thoughts and prayers.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac sure is unique.



HAHAHA...snow...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
is there anything else this storm can surprise us with???



Yup! Hang on, it's coming.
Quoting muddertracker:


oh...it's moving 8 mph...it's just doing it in a circle.
That 8mph and NW heading from the NHC describes the long term motion for Isaac.

Although, you may be right about the circle as it seems Isaac may be performing a cyclonic loop

Quoting robj144:


It is Kirk.


Oops! Forgot it was designated earlier today, haha. Apologies.
1621. angiest
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
is there anything else this storm can surprise us with???


Troll-face satellite image.
1622. JonClaw
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Latest HRRR has Isaac drifting along the coastline for the next 15 hours.

23Z HRRR Composite Reflectivity


And strengthening based on the reflectivity.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
is there anything else this storm can surprise us with???


Well, evidently its snowing in Isaac now.
Does the NHC get credit for a correct location of land fall,since the eye hit that tip that sticks out? Or since he is back over water..it don't count?
Quoting Patrap:
Miss Nola Roux has delivered one Boy, Isaac, and now a gurl..!


Lil Miss Fresca?
Quoting CloudGatherer:
This is allegedly snapped in Port Sulphur, via Twitter:


Tidal Bore? As in the bay of Fundi, nova scotia?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Does the NHC get credit for a correct location of land fall,since the eye hit that tip that sticks out? Or since he is back over water..it don't count?


Storm can have multiple landfalls.
Quoting angiest:


EWRC?

I was noticing that on the radar too. Do cat 1 hurricanes normally go through an EWRC?

Not typically, but I've seen it happen before. Besides, what about Isaac has been normal?
were up to 70 mph by the lakefront everybody!
HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
900 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC OVER WATER AGAIN...
...HEAVY RAINS...HIGH WINDS...AND STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE...

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF ISAAC HAS WOBBLED
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
BACK OVER WATER TO THE WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.


what? no landfall yet?
Quoting tornadolarkin:


Well, evidently its snowing in Isaac now.


please tell me you are kidding
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
is there anything else this storm can surprise us with???



Sure it can go in to RI with winds of 170mph and mb of 880mb


Vary un likey will see this but you had too ask
1633. divdog
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Yup! Hang on, it's coming.
Suspense
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Time: 01:55:00Z
Coordinates: 29.8833N 88.8333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.7 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,454 meters (~ 4,770 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.6 mb (~ 29.43 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 127° at 69 knots (From the SE at ~ 79.3 mph)
Air Temp: 17.0°C* (~ 62.6°F*)
Dew Pt: 17.0°C* (~ 62.6°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 73 knots (~ 83.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 79 knots* (~ 90.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr* (~ 0.28 in/hr*

WOW....can't be contaminated...


WOW....certainly contaminated.

The first indication is that the readings were starred with an asterisk, to indicate the problem. The second is that three fluky readings appeared in a run of ~50kt surface winds. The third is that they far exceeded the flight level winds.

But the clincher is that these three anomalous readings came as the aircraft moved over the Chandeleur Islands. That's all you're seeing here. Move along.
Quoting melianthus:


For accuracy's sake, Assumption Parish is to the southeast of Lafayette, and is south of Baton Rouge and east of New Orleans. It will be affected by the storm, but it is on the weak side of the forecasted track.


Actually, Assumption Parish is to the west of New Orleans, between NOLA and Baton Rouge.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac sure is unique.



SNOW!! WTH!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac sure is unique.


This cant be real..???????????
1638. emguy
Quoting leftlink:


No, not really. The initial surge that built for 3 days over the open gulf had to peak at some point, when the water levels built enough gravity would naturally take a lot of that water back out to sea where the winds have shifted to the southwest.


Well...kinda true...there would be a buildup ahead of the storm, but the continued flow of the wind is only pushing more water up there...so I wouldn't breathe too easy about it yet. I'd be concerned it's is steady state or could rise some more later...unless a flood structure somewhere else in the system has already failed and is letting off the stress (hence dropping the water levels). I am not saying that has occurred though, so don't read to much into that last comment.
Click pic for Java loop.

Velocities have come down a bit in the NW quad.

Quoting Stormchaser121:

Stalling means it stopped. And yes it could turn west now. The models favor it.


What models?


Quoting Skyepony:
Click pic for Java loop.



Such a big and beautiful storm.
1644. guygee
Quoting Masquer08er:
Let the Star Trek jokes begin!
Kirk to Engineering, Scotty, I want full power now!
Lakefront Airport KNEW went down reading 46 mph north. Elevation is 3 ' and I'm guessing waves probably took it out.
Did NHC declare a landfall?
Rain has only been light and intermittant between springfield and ponchatoula, but that's supposed to change later.

The forecast for my house is 15 inches.

Because of lake Marepas so near, we are about to start the sustained TS force winds, and I see the 50kts sustained winds are hot on their tails too.
1648. cccol
Quoting southfla:
The weakness lies to the NE of Isaac.

Steering Layer - Aug 29, 2012 0000z  Link



Hey folks! Long time lurker, been in Navarre, fl for 21 yrs and have never seen any thing like Isaac! Looking at the steering map, what is to keep Isaac from doing a ccw loop and then "shooting the gap". is this even in the realm of possibilities?
Oh, and apparently Isaac is making landfall near Galveston. Where have I been?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac sure is unique.

i
lets see the models cant pin
down movement he misses most of Florida he is supposed to be a Cat 3 he stalls hmmm Now its snowing and 79 degrees good grief.
view Yesterday's Weather
South Lafourche Airport
Lat: 29.44 Lon: -90.26 Elev: 0
Last Update on Aug 28, 9:15 pm CDT

Heavy Rain and Windy

73 °F
(23 °C)
Humidity: 100 %
Wind Speed: N 52 G 67 MPH
Barometer: 29.15"
Dewpoint: 73 °F (23 °C)
Visibility: 1.50 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


35 inches of snow with blizzard conditions


Here in New York we have Nor'easters that are basically strong Tropical Storms. No big deal..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
back over open water, to be a second landfall. getting stronger it appears.. good lord
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Did NHC declare a landfall?


I believe so.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac sure is unique.

Was that heavy or light snow?
Orange Beach, AL is getting worse conditions than NOLA right now. Interesting.
The beach is eroding, too.
1657. IndySuz
Tweet from the NSSL - strongest winds are starting to lower toward the ground in southern LA: https://t.co/F6GarjuZ #Isaac -- Eric Fisher (@EricFisherTWC)
Orange Beach, AL is still taking a pounding 130 miles away.

1659. angiest
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Not typically, but I've seen it happen before. Besides, what about Isaac has been normal?


This is true. Of course, he's got the pressure of a stronger storm, so maybe that's why.
Quoting Ypere104:
Isn't the newly formed TS supposed to be Joyce instead of Kirk? Am missing something here. All my prayers to those in Isaac's path.



Joyce formed and died when Isaac was in the Caribbean.
Damn, isaac is showing us his muscles amazing storm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh, and apparently Isaac is making landfall near Galveston. Where have I been?



WTH!!???
Quoting TampaFLUSA:


What models?




Only the GFS ensemble members suggest it making any significant westward track and by significant I mean "not much in particular." I do wonder about that HRRR run though.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Latest HRRR has Isaac drifting along the coastline for the next 15 hours.

23Z HRRR Composite Reflectivity


And strengthening according to that simulated radar. that would be a terrible track. It looks like he is drifting west with a a shy of north to it.
With the stall, looks like Upper Plaquemines, and Upper Lafourche parishes may be getting training
of heavy rains..
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Did NHC declare a landfall?



Read back a few cants for the ander too that
Roof ripped of parrish president's house? Cantore just said that on TWC...???
Quoting cccol:


Hey folks! Long time lurker, been in Navarre, fl for 21 yrs and have never seen any thing like Isaac! Looking at the steering map, what is to keep Isaac from doing a ccw loop and then "shooting the gap". is this even in the realm of possibilities?


How are things in Navarre? My son lives there, though currently most likely on base.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Does the NHC get credit for a correct location of land fall,since the eye hit that tip that sticks out? Or since he is back over water..it don't count?


Nope, they get credit, Katrina touched East Plaquemines Parish along the river before romping up to the Mississippi Coast. The first was the official landfall.
1671. angiest
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh, and apparently Isaac is making landfall near Galveston. Where have I been?



LOL!
Funktop Loop:

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


35 inches of snow with blizzard conditions


FYI 1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow!
Quoting aasmith26:
Roof ripped of parrish president's house? Cantore just said that on TWC...???


I heard that as well. It's certainly believable. I hope everyone is doing okay in that area.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh, and apparently Isaac is making landfall near Galveston. Where have I been?



Oh that's hilarious...ly wrong.
Quoting aasmith26:
Roof ripped of parrish president's house? Cantore just said that on TWC...???
Yep, he just said that!
i think it rained 1 in so far...
Quoting mcluvincane:
Damn, isaac is showing us his muscles amazing storm
He finally decided to grow a set!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
900 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC OVER WATER AGAIN...
...HEAVY RAINS...HIGH WINDS...AND STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE...

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF ISAAC HAS WOBBLED
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
BACK OVER WATER TO THE WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.


what? no landfall yet?


Yes, first landfall is valid. It will be a second landfall when Isaac crosses the coast again. However, there could be grounds to change it in the post season. As I mentioned earlier, and I am no pro, it looked like the "land falling center" was actually rotating around a larger center. Embedded Vort maybe? Again, no pro here, just an observation.
"As Hurricane Isaac lands on the tip of Plaquemines Parish, a curfew is in affect and the eye is inching up the parish, there is 4.5 feet on the Tide Water Road in Venice and the storm surge on the east side of Pointe-a-la-Hache is measured at about 11 feet. Residents are calling in droves to report water sloshing over parts of levees on the west and east banks and the wind is rattling off homes, trees and power lines, even up in Belle Chasse.

Trees,citrus plants and power lines are down. About 5,000 homes in Plaquemines are out of power, most of the southern end of the parish from south of Alliance on the west bank and Carlisle on the east bank, according to Entergy.

During a one hour drive with James Madere, an analyst with the parish GIS - Geographical Information Systems - department, down the west bank, the storm surge readings down in Pointe-a-la-Hache jumped every 20 minutes: 7.9 feet, 8.4 feet, 8.9 feet, 9.4. It's continued jumping nearly 5 inches every 20 minutes, as the eye of the Isaac now comes up toward Empire." (Read more)
Quoting TampaFLUSA:


What models?




Well since you asked.......
This one!!


and this one!!!


and that one!!!


and this other one!!!


oh yeah and finally this one!!!
Quoting Patrap:
Miss Nola Roux has delivered one Boy, Isaac, and now a gurl..!
Isaac and Miss Nola Roux Deux?
Quoting kctinney:


FYI 1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow!


not in all cases...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1685. ADCS
Quoting aislinnpaps:


How are things in Navarre? My son lives there, though currently most likely on base.


I've got friends there, too. Hope everything is OK
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


Well since you asked.......
This one!!


and this one!!!


and that one!!!


and this other one!!!


oh yeah and finally this one!!!



LOL
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Did NHC declare a landfall?
1845cdt. 700cdt update.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Picked and interesting place to slow down... stall maybe?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Yes, first landfall is valid. It will be a second landfall when Isaac crosses the coast again. However, there could be grounds to change it in the post season. As I mentioned earlier, and I am no pro, it looked like the "land falling center" was actually rotating around a larger center. Embedded Vort maybe? Again, no pro here, just an observation.


I see what you mean...I kinda saw something like that though
1690. MahFL
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
900 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC OVER WATER AGAIN...
...HEAVY RAINS...HIGH WINDS...AND STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE...

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF ISAAC HAS WOBBLED
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
BACK OVER WATER TO THE WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.


what? no landfall yet?


Back means he land falled and is back over water, it's not rocket science.....
Quoting Hurricane12:


Such a big and beautiful storm.


Really? 150,000 people around Orleans will disagree. That's the approx. # without power in the Entergy system.
Quoting angiest:


LOL!
Let me go outside and give a looksy.
1693. yacoub
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Well that's interesting. Dr. Masters doesn't mention that the eye is back over water now, and also says high tide has passed, when folks here were saying it is low tide and high tide is yet to come.
Confused...
Quoting seafarer459:
Looky here Nawleans. We, in Charleston, feel for you and all that. But we're getting tired of suffering through YOUR weather. Would ya mind calling Issac home?
Thanks.


And we didn't even get a hurricane day for it, either... Just a bunch of kayakers in the streets!
1695. guygee
Quoting MercForHire:
Really? 150,000 people around Orleans will disagree. That's the approx. # without power in the Entergy system.
merc-boy - yeah we all get it.
Dang. All these mistakes.

Somebody's slacking.

1698. MahFL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh, and apparently Isaac is making landfall near Galveston. Where have I been?



I saw that too, scared me.
1699. angiest
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dang. All these mistakes.

Somebody's slacking.



Yeah, looks like a small area of tropical storm watch west of the Sabine there.

Still possible
Quoting Stormchaser121:

With this west movement...that will change im sure. I bet we will soon be under a tropical storm warning.


Where are you located at???
The eye is closing back off again on radar presentation...

This is nuts, it may intensify again if this keeps up.
eye is gonna pass over my house with the new direction after the westward float
Jeff back on TWC.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


surface winds can be higher than flight level in a hurricane???? I never knew that.
DAMNED YOU ISAAC!


Yes, they can. New models proved such was the case in Wilma anyway.

I don't know if it applies to all types of hurricanes or what, but Dr. Masters wrote a blog about the research. You'd have to back up and figure it out.
Hi just south of NOLA N of Barataria Bay in Jeff Parish. Teeny typing on hubby's phone. No power and high gusts .... Rumor of stall disconcerting. Running a few things on generator til the gas runs out. Thanks for the info folks. Will lurk for a lil bit.
1707. MahFL
Quoting kctinney:


FYI 1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow!


Not totally true, the ratio differs depending on the conditions.
...DEPRESSION UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...
11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 28
Location: 23.9°N 45.0°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Via Grand Isle Mayor: Island has significant damage and water on the island is waist deep
Entergy System reports:

-- Plaquemines Parish --
Customers Served = 9,925
Customers Affected = 10,036

Would that be considered a TOTAL outage ... or something else?
Quoting RTSplayer:


No.

Brian Norcross mentioned it, said it's probably a wobble.

The eye may be orbiting around inside the outer band.

It's not a measurement error.

It either wobbled or turned.

We'll just have to wait to find out which


I hear you... however I had a chance to finally look at the water vapor loop over 2 hours. The overall disk of high water vapor does take a big southward dip in the GEOS imagery. It in no way resembles a wobble, it is a continuous southward motion over several hours.

Some images:

10:21pm eastern time (10 min. ago):


9:21pm eastern time:


My earlier post about relocation was off base. It looks instead like the center water vapor "disk" keeps redeveloping over and over again (10am this morning was the last time, causing hurricane status) and this time it has redeveloped to the south.

When that "mini-eye" disappeared a couple of hours ago it did so over the southern edge of circulation and then it probably was responsible for the increase in convection over the water, growing that "water vapor disk" to the south of the center and eventually had the effect of shifting the location of the storm.
28storms.com ‏@28storms
Via Grand Isle Mayor: Island has significant damage and water on the island is waist deep.
This is aquiring some spooky symmetry when you look at monochrome satellite products instead of color enhancements.



and


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac sure is unique.



I guess Blake Shelton will have to stop loving his woman lol. Anyone who know the song knows what I mean!
Quoting Patrap:
Miss Nola Roux has delivered one Boy, Isaac, and now a gurl..!
Congratulations on the little Furricanes!
EATL Wave is TRUCKING WEST :)
1717. sfranz
After watching Isaac with y'all this week and running the radar loop a couple of times I have one question: if we have a thousand oil platforms out there, why aren't there a few more fitted with Doppler radars? Just saying'
Quoting leftlink:


I hear you... however I had a chance to finally look at the water vapor loop over 2 hours. The overall disk of high water vapor does take a big southward dip in the GEOS imagery. It in no way resembles a wobble, it is a continuous southward motion over several hours.

Some images:

10:21pm eastern time (10 min. ago):


9:21pm eastern time:


My earlier post about relocation was off base. It looks instead like the center water vapor "disk" keeps redeveloping over and over again (10am this morning was the last time, causing hurricane status) and this time it has redeveloped to the south.

When that "mini-eye" disappeared a couple of hours ago it did so over the southern edge of circulation and then it probably was responsible for the increase in convection over the water, growing that "water vapor disk" to the south of the center and eventually had the effect of shifting the location of the storm.



The radar presentation is becoming alarming.

At this rate the eye will be fully closed and developed again just a few more frames worth of time.

This has a HIGH END category 2 pressure, if it gets a solid eye developed and just sits there, those winds might come up to match it...
Power flashes can be seen on The Weather Channel when they show the wide camera view of New Orleans.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Yes, first landfall is valid. It will be a second landfall when Isaac crosses the coast again. However, there could be grounds to change it in the post season. As I mentioned earlier, and I am no pro, it looked like the "land falling center" was actually rotating around a larger center. Embedded Vort maybe? Again, no pro here, just an observation.
JB's gonna' get his quadracane of doom after all...unless it turns into a quintacane.
Quoting sfranz:
After watching Isaac with y'all this week and running the radar loop a couple of times I have one question: if we have a thousand oil platforms out there, why aren't there a few more fitted with Doppler radars? Just saying'


I've asked the same question. There appears to be little logic to the way things are done regarding this issue.
moved to new blog
Quoting leftlink:


HERE'S MY TAKE ON THIS:



I kind of agree. hitting a river delta that wouldn't even exist if not for man's interferance really doesn't count as a "land fall". It was probably under water as they eye passed over it anyway, so technically there was no "land" there when it passed.
The avg NOAA Doplar Radar is about the size of a house and uses a large amount of power. Not withstanding the rig to support the radar, where would then powersource to run the radar come from? I highly doubt Exxon or Shell or BP will just want hand over their rig generators to run the radar's power requirements. :)
Breaking News Storm ‏@breakingstorm
Report: 218,995 power outages statewide in Louisiana - @GOHSEP
1726. airmet3
Quoting RTSplayer:


I've asked the same question. There appears to be little logic to the way things are done regarding this issue.

There are rigs that have radars on board. The radars are smaller than the ones the NWS uses due to limited space on the rigs. The smaller radars can show reflectivity and velocity to a degree. The question is who operates the radar and interprets the data
Still people strolling down the sidewalk on Bourbon Street webcam, light rain, lightish wind, occasional car
I think it is so cool that Patrap's dog had pups during the storm with one of them named Isaac. So cute!

He should name the female Leslie since she may end up being a formidable storm this year, too.

Post pics Patrap!!
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I think it is so cool that Patrap's dog had pups during the storm with one of them named Isaac. So cute!

He should name the female Leslie since she may end up being a formidable storm this year, too.

Post pics Patrap!!

How many pups? if there has been 10, they should get the names of this year so far.
1730. airmet3
Quoting RTSplayer:


I kind of agree. hitting a river delta that wouldn't even exist if not for man's interferance really doesn't count as a "land fall". It was probably under water as they eye passed over it anyway, so technically there was no "land" there when it passed.


I don't know why the question of landfall is pertinent. Did someone have money on this?
neat wind map
http://hint.fm/wind/
1732. cccol
Things are relatively quiet here at the moment. Small rain squall just moved through and winds are in the 15 - 25 mph range. We have been just east of the edge of the TS force wind radius since 4pm.

Patrap - Congrats! We have had two litters since Christmas!
1733. Patrap
Uptown here its a dry slot as its stop raining suddenly and its cool.

1734. Patrap
Quoting cccol:
Things are relatively quiet here at the moment. Small rain squall just moved through and winds are in the 15 - 25 mph range. We have been just east of the edge of the TS force wind radius since 4pm.

Patrap - Congrats! We have had two litters since Christmas!


Thanks and bac atcha.

She is doing fine with the 2 nursing and laboring a third now..they came 1hr and 20 apart the two..
1735. Gorty
What's the L storm? Think we can get her in Aug. or Sept?
moved to new blog...
1737. Patrap
Quoting airmet3:


I don't know why the question of landfall is pertinent. Did someone have money on this?


Landafall with the eye crossing a coast is the Dumbest thing as half the Storm is fully onshore and that wording needs to be let go.

It's terribly misleading for those being impacted.

My standard post on dat stuff.
Rain and wind still kicking here in Terrytown. Hopefully it slacks off soon.
1739. sfranz
I would think a couple of dopplers would be a fine pr move from BP. We could even offer to take down a couple of those Harry in Vegas pics in return.

Seriously - doesn't the oil industry have a pretty huge stake in these forecasts?

1740. Patrap
1736. leftlink

Foul Language is a Direct violation of the Terms of Service and rules of the road.
1741. Patrap
Nola Roux has delivered Pup # 3 just this last minute!!!

A white one with a Black Butt!.. Woo Hoo!
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
What category is this hurricane?

I have a CELL moving 86kts...


K6 48 dBZ 17,000 ft. 6 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 86 knots ESE (103)
2 C6 46 dBZ 17,000 ft. 8 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 49 knots E (81)
2 B3 46 dBZ 8,000 ft. 5 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 51 knots ESE (108)
2 E4 45 dBZ 16,000 ft. 7 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 64 knots


I don't know what they are calling this thing, but based on the eye wall and the damned radar, this is at least a category 2 hurricane, and the latest advisory still has it officially as an 80mph hurricane...

1744. Patrap
I'm deeming this one.."Eye Sac" ''!


A Gurl again
Quoting justsouthofnola:
eye is gonna pass over my house with the new direction after the westward float
keep safe and keep us posted
Quoting Patrap:
Nola Rux has delivers Pup # 3 just this last minute!!!

Boy or girl?
1747. Patrap
www.nola.com

More Isaac news:
8 p.m. NOAA/NHC advisory
Video: Hurricane Isaac and a drive down Bourbon Street
Gallery: Hurricane Isaac hits Grand Isle
Isaac facts: Wind, water and more
Latest Isaac photos
More on Isaac
What's the weather like in your neighborhood?
% Isaac hasn't shut down appetites or local restaurants
If Isaac knocks the power out, how will you stay entertained?
See, share your Hurricane Isaac photos
Read an e-edition of The Times-Picayune
Quoting sfranz:
After watching Isaac with y'all this week and running the radar loop a couple of times I have one question: if we have a thousand oil platforms out there, why aren't there a few more fitted with Doppler radars? Just saying'
or how about the southernmost
Quoting leftlink:
HOLY CRAP! When Isaac did that little loop-de-loop the pressure in an area he already passed went way DOWN.

from 28.70 (with light 9.9kt wind)

to 28.64 (with wind at 44.1 kts)

This thing is bombing out big time and Category 2 is going to happen!


Let me repeat: the place where Isaac made landfall at 971.9mb at 6:48pm now has pressure at 969.86mb at 9:18pm and the storm is well west of that location. Someone can do the calcs... this is equivalent to a 5mb pressure drop with virtually no movement?

LINK


Hurry up and watch the wunderground radar loop and compare...

As soon as the eye closed back off, a large wedge of additional hurricane force winds filled that space INSTANTLY.

Base velocity
Quoting Patrap:
Nola Roux has delivered Pup # 3 just this last minute!!!

A white one with a Black Butt!.. Woo Hoo!


mazo tov! (cajun for congratulations)
Quoting MercForHire:
Still people strolling down the sidewalk on Bourbon Street webcam, light rain, lightish wind, occasional car


No reason why not. Certainly not that I have seen.

It's one thing to get all excited over a radar image and the theoretical potential devistation it might cause if this or that... but that's the internet / weather-geek world rather that the real one. I don't mean that disrespectfully, I am here along with the rest of you all, but regular non-geeks are not like us.

They look outside, see that it is drizzling with a five mph breeze, and they go on with their lives. Perhaps they paid attention to the hype and hysteria briefly, but they quickly decided that they were being played for fools yet again and they changed the channel.

The reality is this. All the theoretical disaster scenarios aside, this is barely a hurricane. And from what it is ACTUALLY doing to most of the places directly under its skirts, it's not even that. It's calm with occassional bands of soothing rain-- a gentle giant.

That could all change, and some people have certainly suffered damage, but so far the real devistation is to the reputations of the experts who hyped it as a Katrina rerun.
1752. Times2
New Orleans may never get hurricane force winds. The eye may never get close enough. TWC folks are getting tired they want action lol.
Quoting shoreacres:
"As Hurricane Isaac lands on the tip of Plaquemines Parish, a curfew is in affect and the eye is inching up the parish, there is 4.5 feet on the Tide Water Road in Venice and the storm surge on the east side of Pointe-a-la-Hache is measured at about 11 feet. Residents are calling in droves to report water sloshing over parts of levees on the west and east banks and the wind is rattling off homes, trees and power lines, even up in Belle Chasse.

Trees,citrus plants and power lines are down. About 5,000 homes in Plaquemines are out of power, most of the southern end of the parish from south of Alliance on the west bank and Carlisle on the east bank, according to Entergy.

During a one hour drive with James Madere, an analyst with the parish GIS - Geographical Information Systems - department, down the west bank, the storm surge readings down in Pointe-a-la-Hache jumped every 20 minutes: 7.9 feet, 8.4 feet, 8.9 feet, 9.4. It's continued jumping nearly 5 inches every 20 minutes, as the eye of the Isaac now comes up toward Empire." (Read more)


Wasn't Plaquemines Parish under mandatory evac?
The blog is extremely slow tonight...everyone lost power?
1755. MahFL
Quoting truecajun:


Wasn't Plaquemines Parish under mandatory evac?


You don't have to actually leave, it's just if you need rescued they may not be able to help you as the conditions might be too dangerous for the rescuers. You stand a much higher chance of death in that situation.
1756. MahFL
I noted a big slow down too.
For anyone bored and who still has electricity. You have to put it on the History Channel. Top Gear is in the Atchafalaya, and it is HYSTERICAL!
Live mobile eyewall intercept video near Lockport:
Link
Quoting MahFL:


You don't have to actually leave, it's just if you need rescued they may not be able to help you as the conditions might be too dangerous for the rescuers. You stand a much higher chance of death in that situation.


Right, but the article made it sound like LOTS of people were calling in about water. I assumed that if they were under mandatory evac that there wouldn't still be LOTS of people there.
1760. MahFL
Quoting truecajun:


Right, but the article made it sound like LOTS of people were calling in about water. I assumed that if they were under mandatory evac that there wouldn't still be LOTS of people there.


The Fire Chief said about 30 people stayed. He called them "Old Dogs". One assumes they being Old it's not the first cane they have rode through.
Carrollton, LA

Data from station is reporting that the water level has risen 2.5 feet and still climbing.
You look at google map it doesn't look like it would take much to flood that area.
Google Map
Quoting MahFL:


The Fire Chief said about 30 people stayed. He called them "Old Dogs". One assumes they being Old it's not the first cane they have rode through.


yeah. i always expect the old dogs to stay. i guess the word "droves" is what threw me a little
1763. MahFL
I am off to bed, work in the am.
Duh..
There is a new blog entry that why it's dead here.
I need to stop drinking!