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Isaac becomes better organized, remains a tropical storm

By: Angela Fritz 9:12 PM GMT on August 26, 2012

Isaac is gradually becoming better organized this afternoon, with winds of 60 mph and a minimum central pressure of 992 mb. A hurricane warning has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast, including Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Strong thunderstorm activity has developed around the inner core of the storm, which is visible on both satellite and radar. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission has found surface winds from 50 mph to 65 mph and steadily dropping pressure--a sign of a strengthening cyclone. Late in the flight, the hunters found a shift in the center to the west, which could either be a trend or just a "wobble," and could readjust. Another mission is on its way to the storm. Upper level outflow remains organized on the north side of the storm, but wind shear remains moderate (10-20 knots) to the south and southeast of Isaac, disrupting the development of organized thunderstorm activity there.

The Sombrero Key, Florida buoy is reporting sustained wind speeds around 50 mph with gusts close to 60. A weather station in Dry Tortugas National Park is reporting sustained wind speeds around 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. A tornado watch has been issued for southern Florida, and some storms with weak rotation have been spotted, but no tornado warnings have been issued. Heavy rain is falling in the Keys and southern Florida, and radar-estimated rainfall totals thus far are up to 4 inches. Scattered storms associated with Isaac reach as far north as St. Augustine, Florida this afternoon, and the storm's main rain shield is approaching Orlando.

Some Florida rainfall totals so far:
• Homestead: 6.26”
• Miami: 2.67”
• West Palm Beach: 1.73”
• Key West: 1.37”


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Isaac from around 2pm EDT on Sunday.

Track Forecast
Like this morning, the models are still disagreeing on exactly where Isaac will make landfall. The ECMWF's track remains the farthest east, and forecasts Isaac to make landfall near the Florida/Alabama border. Next to the west is the UKMET, which is predicting landfall near Mobile, Alabama. The HWRF, GFDL, and GFS are all on the western side of the envelope, with the GFDL and the GFS predicting landfall in western Louisiana, possibly close to the Louisiana/Texas border. In terms of landfall timing, it depends on the track, but we're expecting landfall early Wednesday morning. The National Hurricane Center's 5pm EDT track splits the difference between the GFS model, which is the western solution, and the ECMWF, which is the eastern. They predict Isaac will continue to move northwest over the next day or so before turning slightly to the north before approaching the Louisiana/Mississippi coastline on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Intensity Forecast
The HWRF model continues to be the most bullish on Isaac's potential intensity, forecasting the storm to reach category 3 status. The GFDL is more reserved and suggest Isaac will only reach strong category 1 wind speeds before making landfall. Given current observations, the National Hurricane Center has backed off the previous forecast that Isaac will intensify to hurricane status around the Florida Keys. They now expect Isaac to remain at tropical storm status as it moves through the central Gulf of Mexico before finally strengthening as it approaches the coast and become a category 2 hurricane just before landfall.


Figure 2. Model forecasts of Isaac's potential track.

Portlight update

"We are coordinating a pro-active response to potential Hurricane Isaac's landfall along the Gulf Coast. This pro-active response is a major step forward for Portlight and would not have been possible without each of you that have been involved over the past four years since our large scale disaster relief effort after Hurricane Ike devastated the Texas Gulf Coast. The response to Hurricane Ike was a profound effort of everyone working together which accomplished a lot of great things including repatriating BillyBadBird, feeding the Bolivar Peninsula, delivering needed supplies to Bridge City, Tx (which was inundated by Ike's surge), providing medical equipment to the disabled, and the heart warming Christmas Party for the residents of Bridge City, Tx. It was truly a group effort and none of it would have been possible if we had not had so many step up, get involved, and provide support and assistance in whatever way each individual could."

You can donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund here.

Dr. Masters will have an update tomorrow morning, and you can catch him on The Weather Channel throughout the evening.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 81 hours....save those hurricane supplies........


Still a lot of model positon errors though

Link
4502. Caner
Quoting LargoFl:
yes it does, had it at 344 hours or so..wow and another one in the same area at 81 hours


Would be in keeping with history...

Katrina / Rita

Gustav / Ike

1-2 punch is almost becoming normal...
Quoting nola70119:


NHC is all over this one now.....no need to make too many guesses. Read the discussion they will hint at a track move before it happens....


Yeah, they're pretty good. ;)
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I need to ask a question. I know it's going into LA and all, but still if it goes in there wont Miss and Ala get the dirty side of this storm and all? Like the storm surge,tornadoes,wind? Is the storm still like 200 miles wide or something like that? Also what happen to everyone saying when it got close it might take a NE turn like a lot of storms do? I don't mean to have a lot of questions just really don't understand.

sheri
"Yes" there will be alot of "Heavy Rain, Winds and Tornados" also lets not forget the Storm Surge". All along the North Gulf Coast

Taco :o)
Quoting Skyepony:
AF & NOAA did center fixes with in 9 mins of each other as the eye is forming. I put the full decoded vortex messages one after another in my blog. Kinda neat, kinda long.. Clicking on my handle will go there.

Hi. Don't see it.
Latest HWIND
Destructive Potential Rating (0-6) Wind 0.6, SurgeWaves 2.1



I never understood why they flew the G4 flight over the Bahamas, I never mentioned it on the blog last week. It didn't help
4508. sar2401
Quoting cchssweatherman:
I Posted this Friday Afternoon if you guys remember.. The only forcaster to get the path right DAYS in Advance



At least you're a funny troll, but a troll nonetheless. Time to go POOF!
The model tracks are all the same, the difference is in the speed. The slow ones have them off the coast before moving due west........so all the NHC has to do is track the storm's progress.

And TX would, and maybe, on the weak side of what would be a very weak storm.
4510. jpsb
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Huh? Alex was a Category 2 in the Gulf in 2010.

You're thinking Allen in 1980.
You might be right, let me check.
Quoting sar2401:


There really is no relationship between a storm's category and forward speed, in general. The big issues for New Orleans are storm surge and overall rainfall. A TS can have as much rainfall as a cat 2, and it can have a bigger storm surge if it's large, like Isaac. Conversly, even a fast moving cat 2 can have way more rain the a slow moving TS, and the storm surge can be worse, depending on how big it was before landfall and who much water is is pushing with it. It's hard to make generalizations about storms using these kind of criteria. As has been mentioned earlier, the NHC needs to consider some kind of total kinetic energy rating for storms, since this is really what causes the problems, regardless of category or speed.


I have heard several meteorologists suggest that the Saffir-Simpson scale is inadequate when it comes to assessing a storm's destructive power. The SS categorizations relate to structural damage from sustained wind loads. I agree with you; when it comes to impacts on human life and flood control infrastructure...the kinetic (and potential??) energy of the storm is what needs to be quantified and explained to the concerned public.
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 81 hours....save those hurricane supplies........


I'm going to hope it's seriously wrong on that track... Right over me..
I believe the next Recon will be flying out of Ellington Air Force Base in Clear Lake!
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Heed yesterdays reports from S. Fla regarding Isaac. Every report I saw regarding the outer bands (a great distance away from his center) were that they were extremely intense considering Isaac was a tropical storm.

That intensity (whether Isaac becomes a hurricane or remains a T/S) is going to translate into the storm surge potential.

That surge will be a prolonged event beginning this evening.


Yup, the outer bands are FAR reaching. We are still getting strong bands and tornado warnings. You all in the gulf need to prepare now, in my opinion, then hunker down.
#NOAA42 just passed through center of #Isaac for 5th and last time. Track of center is trochoidal as circulation reacts to convection.
Quoting NJHurricanez:
Has anyone noticed that the GFS model shows another Hurricane hitting the same area of the Gulf next week?? That would be crazy...


More GOM storms aren't out of the question. An El Nino season, dry air, dust.... a lot of CV spawn won't spin up quick and then re-curve to fish-ville like last year. Condition should keep the GOM storm intensities somewhat in check however. Also, there is no 'hot' loop eddy in the GOM this year like in 2005.
4517. acl8610
Tornado warning Orange and Seminole counties in FL
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
I believe the next Recon will be flying out of Ellington Air Force Base in Clear Lake!


10 am central... they had to move those aircraft from Biloxi..
Quoting LSU:
That is true. Gotta give props to cchs for finally getting a track right. Big change in light of all that Florida wishcasting he usually does, and glad he didn't do that for this storm as well.

Good work, CCHS.



Come on now, was that really necessary?

Cchs deserves just as much respect as everyone else on here. Let's not criticize others who are very knowledgeable and let's move on.
Looks like some good rain will be coming in later today.

Jacksonville radar
4521. llpj04
A city official last night said that the city pumps for New Orleans can pump out 1 inch per hour for the first hour & then 1/2 inch the rest of the time.
For Katrina the pumps were not working for several reasons and they say they have worked out some of those problems.
Quoting Michfan:


3 hours ago.
It almost looks as if it's trying to pose a double eyewall.

Well, the NAM wants to stall it out over NOLA.
4524. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING................................TORNADO WARNING
FLC095-117-271500-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0021.120827T1431Z-120827T1500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1031 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHRISTMAS...BITHLO...
EASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SANFORD...OVIEDO...LAKE JESSUP...
GENEVA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.

* AT 1027 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
CHRISTMAS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MIDWAY

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET AND KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY.
Quoting Articuno:
It almost looks as if it's trying to pose a double eyewall.



Didn't Isabel have a double eyewall before she made landfall?
Quoting Pirate999:


I'm going to hope it's seriously wrong on that track... Right over me..


NHC not buying it. Guess we'll see if the GFS shows it again for the zillionth time. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Looked like he was hitting his forecast point pretty good when I looked a few minutes ago. Hope he comes in fast, doesn't stall and stays weak. Take care everyone in his path.
Isaac predicted to sit over La. and Mississippi area for 2 to 3 days, that is alot of rain for them and eastward.
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Yup, the outer bands are FAR reaching. We are still getting strong bands and tornado warnings. You all in the gulf need to prepare now, in my opinion, then hunker down.


I concur...today has been worse than yesterday. Good call on the no school. For those of you who said it was stupid, you must not be parents. I wouldnt want my child waiting for his bus in a squall line or being in a portable when one of these heavy bands go through.
Quoting llpj04:
A city official last night said that the city pumps for New Orleans can pump out 1 inch per hour for the first hour & then 1/2 inch the rest of the time.
For Katrina the pumps were not working for several reasons and they say they have worked out some of those problems.

so there will be some flooding if Isaac goes to the west of New Orleans, because parts of Florida have been getting way more than that.
4530. LSU
Quoting tropicfreak:


Come on now, was that really necessary?

Cchs deserves just as much respect as everyone else on here. Let's not criticize others who are very knowledgeable and let's move on.


What? I'm not criticizing. I respect him for not calling for a Florida strike in direct contradiction of all the evidence.
4531. Matt74
Quoting stoormfury:
ISaac will not be the only storm to threaten the gulf of mexico. soon to be 98L/Kirk will be the next player down the road
Do you have the winning powerball numbers handy?
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Heed yesterdays reports from S. Fla regarding Isaac. Every report I saw regarding the outer bands (a great distance away from his center) were that they were extremely intense considering Isaac was a tropical storm.

That intensity (whether Isaac becomes a hurricane or remains a T/S) is going to translate into the storm surge potential.

That surge will be a prolonged event beginning this evening.

We are still getting pounded in the upper keys, The wind last night on the backside were just as bad if not worse as the front. We still have a kick azz band streaming up from the south that reaches way past cuba, gotta be at least 35 with some major gusts
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Isaac predicted to sit over La. and Mississippi area for 2 to 3 days, that is alot of rain for them and eastward.


Another Danny 1997?
isaccs.ace???
Surprised to see a chance of hail for out by Bithlo..

Quoting TampaCat5:

Hi. Don't see it.


Sorry, it's in the comments. Click on my handle in this comment then scroll down to the bottom of the entry & click on comments. I left them in the comments. My blog isn't really for lower speed internet connection.
4536. LargoFl
#NOAA42 radar shows extensive rainbands north and west of center of #Isaac extending 150-200 nm radius. Squalls embedded in very heavy rain.
waiting on the 11 am update...possible shift to the west again? I'm just hoping he moves inland quickly wherever he goes. Stalling off the coast of LA or MS would be a bad flooding problem...and add the storm surge to that.
What's funny is someone I work with predicted an East Texas landfall last week.
I told him there's no way Issac will go that far West.

That was back when most the model were saying the East Coast of Florida.

He should be working for the NHC.
Caner, I think some of the hostility is from experience. It's misdirected since I doubt anyone actually knows you or what you do/have done to help during disasters in the past. Most people are good people and will pitch in, especially if they have the skills to do so. And that is always appreciated.

There's been a number of incidents in the past when during a weather disaster out of town "volunteer authorities" come by and assume they know better then the locals there. Either forcing people out, separating families, confiscating legal guns, or engaging in sight seeing/lock down behavior that is not asked for or desired by the local community. Essentially, coming in and telling the people what they need instead of asking.

Actual help is a benefit and always appreciated but outsiders with badges bossing you around because they think they know better can rub locals the wrong way.

I'm not saying that's what you do or that this is the norm. But I think it's an undercurrent of experience and maybe some are projecting that feeling onto you.
Quoting floridabuckeyes:


I concur...today has been worse than yesterday. Good call on the no school. For those of you who said it was stupid, you must not be parents. I wouldnt want my child waiting for his bus in a squall line or being in a portable when one of these heavy bands go through.
Well, I dropped my six year old off in this terrible weather. It's actually not bad until a band comes through up here in St Lucie.But as I was sitting in the car line one came through and I thought, why am I out here? ha But it goes to show you all on the gulf coast that this is only going to get stronger and the bands will reach you way before the actual eye landfall. Get ready now and good luck to you all.
Quoting taco2me61:
"Yes" there will be alot of "Heavy Rain, Winds and Tornados" also lets not forget the Storm Surge". All along the North Gulf Coast

Taco :o)


Hey Taco, thanks for answering me, i was thinking no one could see my questions or something. So what is your opinion of this storm? you think it's on a due west course and no re curvature?

sheri
Quoting LSU:


What? I'm not criticizing. I respect him for not calling for a Florida strike in direct contradiction of all the evidence.


That's the way it came across to me on that map. Aren't you being a little over-dramatic?

Calling him a Florida wishcaster is senseless, when he is among the most well respected and knowledgeable on here
4545. jpsb
Quoting Caner:


I'm bringing 300 gallons with me, along with food, water, chain saws, ice and generators, but thanks for your unbridled hate of law enforcement.

It's a pleasure to serve. You in particular.
Water and chain saw are what is needed immediately after land fall. Security not so much as most people pull together to help clean up the mess. Flat shovels too, to get the mud of flooded homes. pay no attention to the PC crowd here. lol. A good man with a chain saw can be a big help.
Quoting islander101010:
isaccs.ace???

Its about 5-5.5 now
(I forget the units)
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Yup, the outer bands are FAR reaching. We are still getting strong bands and tornado warnings. You all in the gulf need to prepare now, in my opinion, then hunker down.


It is also said that tropical systems that contain lightning (although rare) are generally violent.

Isaac had lightning in it last night.
4548. LargoFl
FOLKS NEAR SANFORD FL AND ORLANDO ETC..THERE IS A TORNADO WARNING OUT RIGHT NOW..STAY SAFE OVER THERE
Quoting Articuno:
It almost looks as if it's trying to pose a double eyewall.


Actually it looks like it's trying to form two eyes in that image (see the strong hook to the south of the main eye)! Wouldn't that just be the icing on the cake for this storm? :P
4550. bappit
Quoting RitaEvac:
I never understood why they flew the G4 flight over the Bahamas, I never mentioned it on the blog last week. It didn't help

Didn't the GFS swing west after that? (And the ECMWF swannng east. lol)
Quoting washingaway:
Well, the NAM wants to stall it out over NOLA.


Forunately, the NAM is always the most inaccurate.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I was looking at the archive of the forecast track from the NHC. To me, they did a good job up through arrival on the NE tip of Cuba. After that they have been off. First they had Isaac making landfall on Miami and ever since then they keep shifting west.

Which leads to the question about all of the Upper Air surveilance flights that is suppose to give the NHC great data and improve forecast track accuracy. Quited honestly, I'm not seeing it. Even yesterday, Dr. Masters said that they don't know where it will make landfall.

The NHC will always say that their foreast path was "in the cone". Sure, if you make the cone wide enough and keep moving it then the forecst can't be out of the cone.
I believe the Florida landfall wasn't out of the original cone. In fact here is one of the first forecasts. Looks pretty darn good to me, especially being five days out:



Well within the cone.

Further, it is easy to stand from afar and say upper air data isn't making much of an improvement to the forecast, but you have no idea what the forecast would have been like without the upper air data. The G-IV flights have shown over the years that they DO boost the accuracy of the forecast. Finally, this is a very sensitive steering forecast coming up. It is a very borderline situation whether or not this trough will be able to recurve Isaac or whether the ridge will catch him. It looked like it could go either way, and now it appears the models have agreed on a more westerly track.

PS The way to the cone is set up, it means: using the average forecast error over the past five years, storms will fall inside the cone 2/3 of the time. So yes, 1/3 of the time storms will not be inside the cone, and that is why they adjust it. Because every now and then you get an incredibly difficult forecast such as this case.
4553. hydrus
Quoting tropicfreak:


Another Danny 1997?
Danny was a very small, but well formed storm. Isaac covers a much larger area.
4554. ge2655
The weather seems to be easing now, the winds have dramatically subsided, the rain has all but stopped and the sun popped out for a few minutes. Clean up has not been too bad as the debris is minimal. The storm drains are nearly full of water and the surrounding waterways are at a high level.

All in all, it was not too bad and could have been much worse. I never lost power, which is amazing because during every other storm, power loss has happened early on. It pains me to say this but Florida Power and Light did a great job during this storm. The lack of very high winds did not hamper them from getting out and restoring their ‘downed’ customers.

Wherever this is going to end up, be ready for the rain as this storm has been very, very wet. The wind was not a major problem, it was very gusty at times but the rain was relentless, pouring down fast and furious for a long sustained period of time.

Regards,
-Gary
Hollywood Florida
4555. LargoFl
#NOAA42 radar shows major rainband spiraling off FL coast extending 200-300 nm from #Isaac center. Squalls embedded in very heavy rain.
Quoting dogsgomoo:
Caner, I think some of the hostility is from experience. It's misdirected since I doubt anyone actually knows you or what you do/have done to help during disasters in the past. Most people are good people and will pitch in, especially if they have the skills to do so. And that is always appreciated.

There's been a number of incidents in the past when during a weather disaster out of town "volunteer authorities" come by and assume they know better then the locals there. Either forcing people out, separating families, confiscating legal guns, or engaging in sight seeing/lock down behavior that is not asked for or desired by the local community. Essentially, coming in and telling the people what they need instead of asking.

Actual help is a benefit and always appreciated but outsiders with badges bossing you around because they think they know better can rub locals the wrong way.

I'm not saying that's what you do or that this is the norm. But I think it's an undercurrent of experience and maybe some are projecting that feeling onto you.


+ 100 well said, and thank you!
I love the tweets coming out of NOAA 42. Put them together, and you've got an elliptical eye stretching 30 miles from WNW to ESE, and tilted vertically toward the northeast. There are particularly strong lines of squalls and rain bands to the WNW of the storm, and strong cells embedded in the eyewall that's now forming.

I'll revise what I said before. NHC is likely to assign the borderline hurricane-force winds to an embedded squall - we haven't seen readings from either of the aircraft breach 60kts since then. We'll move the intensity up to 60kts, the central pressure to 988mb, and warn that it'll make hurricane later today, instead of Tuesday as projected this morning.
4559. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLC095-117-271500-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-120827T1500Z/
SEMINOLE-ORANGE-
1035 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND EASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

AT 1032 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
WEDGEFIELD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CHRISTMAS PARK...BITHLO...LOCKWOOD...UNIVERSITY PARK...UNIVERSITY OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA...CHULUOTA...AND OVIEDO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2880 8132 2880 8118 2878 8118 2879 8116
2879 8111 2846 8089 2842 8090 2836 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 156DEG 36KT 2851 8102

$$


15
caner...are you having your fellow, tactically-armed deputy reservist underlings load the truck and trailer for you while you are in the eagles nest blogging about what your next grand move will be??? because if you were legit you would NOT be chatting to strangers on this blog, you would be staging and dragging your santa's sleigh full of emergency goodies with you down to southern LA...
4562. GetReal
Quoting LargoFl:
Yet another one..GFS at 336 hours..................
Odds of exact replication must be staggering. Although if steering/trough situation is the same then, could happen.
Quoting AussieStorm:
#NOAA42 radar shows major rainband spiraling off FL coast extending 200-300 nm from #Isaac center. Squalls embedded in very heavy rain.
I think I'm in that now. I cant believe I dropped my daughter off in this. It is much worse today than yesterday.
4565. hydrus
4566. LargoFl
tornado warning cone and area its in..................
4567. sar2401
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW!!!!



Would you please stop wiht the WOW!!!! thing and label your graphics. I have no idea where those radar images are at. You've been asked nicely to this several times already.
Low Cloud Product, a little slow to load.
Looks to moving more west. You decide!
How Storm Surge Hurts Places Like New Orleans
LOL accuweather, it flood it, how else.
10:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.3°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
4571. kwgirl
Thank you Angela. It sure is a lopsided storm, or was yesterday. Hopefully it won't strenghten any more.
No adjustment in winds.
Quoting CloudGatherer:
I love the tweets coming out of NOAA 42. Put them together, and you've got an elliptical eye stretching 30 miles from WNW to ESE, and tilted vertically toward the northeast. There are particularly strong lines of squalls and rain bands to the WNW of the storm, and strong cells embedded in the eyewall that's now forming.

I'll revise what I said before. NHC is likely to assign the borderline hurricane-force winds to an embedded squall - we haven't seen readings from either of the aircraft breach 60kts since then. We'll move the intensity up to 60kts, the central pressure to 988mb, and warn that it'll make hurricane later today, instead of Tuesday as projected this morning.


what is the Twitter I should Follow
Hello, Baton Rouge here. From my 45 years of enduring storms, remember to cut your grass. It makes raking up debris so much easier. Stay safe.
4575. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1026 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLZ047-054-059-064-271530-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE-
1026 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH OVER SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY...EASTERN
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY...ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT.

AT 1024 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN MARTIN
COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE LAKEWOOD PARK...FORT PIERCE...PORT SAINT LUCIE... SAINT
LUCIE WEST...VERO BEACH AND MICCO.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
4576. ugajag
Looks like it is headed for the tip of S.E.LA..
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Its about 5-5.5 now
(I forget the units)


ISAAC
Current wind: 55kts
Max Wind: 55kts
ACE = 5.43
TEMBIN
Current wind: 65kts
Max Wind: 115kts
ACE = 30.695
BOLAVEN
Current wind: 70kts
Max Wind: 130kts
ACE = 34.5975
4578. GetReal



Big towering convection building on west side of COC...
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I believe the Florida landfall wasn't out of the original cone. In fact here is one of the first forecasts. Looks pretty darn good to me, especially being five days out:



Well within the cone.

Further, it is easy to stand from afar and say upper air data isn't making much of an improvement to the forecast, but you have no idea what the forecast would have been like without the upper air data. The G-IV flights have shown over the years that they DO boost the accuracy of the forecast. Finally, this is a very sensitive steering forecast coming up. It is a very borderline situation whether or not this trough will be able to recurve Isaac or whether the ridge will catch him. It looked like it could go either way, and now it appears the models have agreed on a more westerly track.

PS The way to the cone is set up, it means: using the average forecast error over the past five years, storms will fall inside the cone 2/3 of the time. So yes, 1/3 of the time storms will not be inside the cone, and that is why they adjust it. Because every now and then you get an incredibly difficult forecast such as this case.

Exactly. The entire time, Isaac's track has been within the cone. Remember, don't look at the narrow little line in the middle, but rather the overall cone. The NHC has done very well.
988, and still 10 mph off a Hurricane, how far out are TS conditions?
side note...don't forget that losing power does not just mean in your home. ATM's won't work, grocery stores & hardware stores can't use credit cards, etc... make sure to have cash on hand. You can always put the extra you don't use back in the bank when it's all over.
...ISAAC MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...POSES SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
Location: 26.1°N 85.3°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
4584. LargoFl
I always follow JM's blog for every storm and the comments. I have a question:

The station in Live Oak, FL is reporting sustained winds this morning of 46mph. These are reported as wind speeds and not as gusts. How reliable is this data and what are the inland wind reports associated with the activity in central & north florida?
@spann tornado crossing into Seminole county from orange. Heading northwest towards Oviedo FL and Lake Jessup.
Amazing how the Tampa Shield even deflects the rain away. Been pretty dry here.

Quoting sar2401:


Would you please stop wiht the WOW!!!! thing and label your graphics. I have no idea where those radar images are at. You've been asked nicely to this several times already.

I gave up trying to correct him or figure out where it was WOW. I just use the second link above the "member since" date.
Quoting MarkTodd2233:


what is the Twitter I should Follow
Well, it's out of the storm now. But for future NOAA (and not AF) flights, follow: @HRD_AOML_NOAA
They're expecting storm surge up to 12 feet from Louisiana to Alabama. Looks like what I said a few pages back was dead on.
Quoting BobinTampa:
Amazing how the Tampa Shield even deflects the rain away. Been pretty dry here.


Yeah, dull and grey, yuck.
Quoting CloudGatherer:
Well, it's out of the storm now. But for future NOAA (and not AF) flights, follow: @HRD_AOML_NOAA


Thanks
4593. Chiggy
for a NOLA landfall, Issac now has to move directly NW - any further wobbles towards W/WNW will increase chances of SE/LA area..
Any thoughts on here?

I live In Houston, and nobody is even talking about Issac - I can see some mass panic IF the NHC cone moves towards us.. precarious situation here!

Worst case for Houston: Aims toward us with a CAT-2 entity - Mass panic!
4594. LargoFl
Quoting BobinTampa:
Amazing how the Tampa Shield even deflects the rain away. Been pretty dry here.

as issac moves northward and westward away from us here..he will be pulling all those storm bands that are now over on the east coast..to us later today and tonight..its not over here by a long shot..
4595. HCW
Peak winds expected for South Mobile county is 49 mph . Got to love premature evacuations :)
4596. GetReal
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2012 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 25:42:47 N Lon : 85:05:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 986.6mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -67.1C Cloud Region Temp : -62.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 140km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.1 degrees

4597. tkeith
Link

Cimss, you can see the ragged eye form at the end of the loop.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
...ISAAC MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...POSES SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
Location: 26.1°N 85.3°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Storm surge will be one of the reasons why Isaac will be remembered. Even though he will "only" be a cat1/2 hurricane at landfall. His effects will be far reaching with surge, tornadoes, rain, flooding, and wind.
Storm Surge Exceedance (10% chance):

SSE

Uh-oh...
Recon just found 72 and 78 mph winds, not flagged as contaminated but rain rates were high...
4601. drj27
is there anything thats going to shift him back to the east are do they pretty much have it as its hitting ms/la im just hoping theres nothing that can curve it into the al/fla libe as i live in ft.walton beach
4602. Matt74
Quoting CybrTeddy:
...ISAAC MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...POSES SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
Location: 26.1°N 85.3°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
The discussion says wnw but the coordinates say nw... What gives?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
They're expecting storm surge up to 12 feet from Louisiana to Alabama. Looks like what I said a few pages back was dead on.


Yep

A wide swath of coast to the Fla panhandle is gonna take a long term ponding.

Piers, docks, beach houses etc..
Quoting jeffs713:

Exactly. The entire time, Isaac's track has been within the cone. Remember, don't look at the narrow little line in the middle, but rather the overall cone. The NHC has done very well.


I think the question is is asking is that are the surveliance missions proving valuable. And yes, maybe to much emphasis is put on the line (or center of the cone) but that is human nature - we all do it. If you look at the graphic, the projected landfall at 2:00 am this morning was Miami and look where the storm is. I agree and disagree with him. Just goes to show how difficult forecasting these storms really are.
Isaac's center is beginning to leave the range of the Tampa radar beam.

Quoting drj27:
is there anything thats going to shift him back to the east are do they pretty much have it as its hitting ms/la im just hoping theres nothing that can curve it into the al/fla libe as i live in ft.walton beach


Cone rules now only 48 hours out...
Quoting Chiggy:
for a NOLA landfall, Issac now has to move directly NW - any further wobbles towards W/WNW will increase chances of SE/LA area..
Any thoughts on here?

I live In Houston, and nobody is even talking about Issac - I can see some mass panic IF the NHC cone moves towards us.. precarious situation here!

Worst case for Houston: Aims toward us with a CAT-2 entity - Mass panic!


LOL, I'm sure Houston would panic, the coastal residents along the coast would take it in stride
4609. GetReal
Quoting Chiggy:
for a NOLA landfall, Issac now has to move directly NW - any further wobbles towards W/WNW will increase chances of SE/LA area..
Any thoughts on here?

I live In Houston, and nobody is even talking about Issac - I can see some mass panic IF the NHC cone moves towards us.. precarious situation here!

Worst case for Houston: Aims toward us with a CAT-2 entity - Mass panic!


It could just as easy wobble NW again later down the track.... Pretty much on official track. IMO
4610. LargoFl
Quoting Neapolitan:
Storm Surge Exceedance (10% chance):

SSE

Uh-oh...
yes this storm is HUGE, folks dont concentrate on the winds..surge and flooding are the bigger concerns with this stoorm and..tornado's..stay alert and safe
4611. hydrus
Quoting Matt74:
The discussion says wnw but the coordinates say nw... What gives?
I am go with the latest advisory N.W.
Quoting HCW:
Peak winds expected for South Mobile county is 49 mph . Got to love premature evacuations :)


I assume they're only evacuating coastal and low lying areas. There is good reason to do that.
Quoting HCW:
Peak winds expected for South Mobile county is 49 mph . Got to love premature evacuations :)
They do it for the same reason McDonalds warns that coffee is hot. LOL
4614. LargoFl
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Isaac's center is beginning to leave the range of the Tampa radar beam.

..tornado warning is close or over orlando now...geez
Great Picture!!!!


Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
Storm Surge Exceedance (10% chance):

SSE

Uh-oh...


North Shore going under.....hopefully Chalmette levees will hold.
Recon confirms that there has been at least a jog more toward the west.
4618. acl8610
the rotation in that storm NE of Orlando is still pretty strong, not very wise it let that warning expire I think
4619. ncstorm
They now expect Isaac to remain at tropical storm status as it moves through the central Gulf of Mexico before finally strengthening as it approaches the coast and become a category 2 hurricane just before landfall.

5am
INIT 27/0900Z 25.2N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 26.2N 85.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 27.6N 87.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 28.8N 89.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 29.7N 90.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 31.2N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 34.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 38.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

11am
INIT 27/1500Z 26.1N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 27.1N 86.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 28.3N 88.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 30.2N 90.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 31.9N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 35.2N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 39.3N 91.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND


Angela, the 5am and 11am discussion stated they only expected it to get up a Cat 1?

4620. LargoFl
......................jedkins you getting it now?
Quoting RitaEvac:


LOL, I'm sure Houston would panic, the coastal residents along the coast would take it in stride

And people well inland (like Katy) would evacuate, clogging the roads for everyone else.
4622. MahFL
Now there is a 500 mile spread between the models. Sheesh.
4623. tkeith
Quoting nola70119:


North Shore going under.....hopefully Chalmette levees will hold.
The new ones will...
Quoting luvtogolf:


I think the question is is asking is that are the surveliance missions proving valuable. And yes, maybe to much emphasis is put on the line (or center of the cone) but that is human nature - we all do it. If you look at the graphic, the projected landfall at 2:00 am this morning was Miami and look where the storm is. I agree and disagree with him. Just goes to show how difficult forecasting these storms really are.


I honestly think the upper-air flights did help, as the NHC modified their tracks a bit afterwards, and those modifications brought it closer to what actually happened.
4625. dmh1026
Tropical Storm warnings discontinued for SWFL. Yeah!
4626. Chiggy
MS/AL border landfall is no longer the case as Issac moving towards SSW of that location. Which means few runs of Euro yesterday/today calling a landfall in this area is NOT materializing...
Issac will have to move NNW to verify 00Z Euro landfall - victory for GFS!

4627. jpsb
Quoting CybrTeddy:
They're expecting storm surge up to 12 feet from Louisiana to Alabama. Looks like what I said a few pages back was dead on.
12 feet? Really, I will be surprised if a general 12 foot surge occurs. I can see 12 feet where the local topography enhances a surge but not a general 12 foot surge.
Video from Isaac feeder band last night. Basketball hoop almost hit the car.
Link
4629. acl8610
Btw more storms in Osceola county are rotating.... heading north
Despite the tornado warning for almost exactly where I am (Uuniverity of Central Florida area), there is gentle rain and it is almost dead still and it has been like that for hours.
Quoting ncstorm:
They now expect Isaac to remain at tropical storm status as it moves through the central Gulf of Mexico before finally strengthening as it approaches the coast and become a category 2 hurricane just before landfall.

5am
INIT 27/0900Z 25.2N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 26.2N 85.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 27.6N 87.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 28.8N 89.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 29.7N 90.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 31.2N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 34.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 38.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

11am
INIT 27/1500Z 26.1N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 27.1N 86.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 28.3N 88.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 30.2N 90.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 31.9N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 35.2N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 39.3N 91.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND


Angela, the 5am and 11am discussion stated they only expected it to get up a Cat 1?


This blog was posted last night...
4632. ncstorm
I see the NHC added the SPC icon to the graphics..
Quoting ncstorm:
They now expect Isaac to remain at tropical storm status as it moves through the central Gulf of Mexico before finally strengthening as it approaches the coast and become a category 2 hurricane just before landfall.

5am
INIT 27/0900Z 25.2N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 26.2N 85.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 27.6N 87.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 28.8N 89.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 29.7N 90.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 31.2N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 34.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 38.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

11am
INIT 27/1500Z 26.1N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 27.1N 86.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 28.3N 88.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 30.2N 90.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 31.9N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 35.2N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 39.3N 91.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND


Angela, the 5am and 11am discussion stated they only expected it to get up a Cat 1?


This blog was made yesterday evening..
Quoting jeffs713:

And people well inland (like Katy) would evacuate, clogging the roads for everyone else.


Oh no, no electricity in my 4,000 sq ft home! we'll go to our other home in Austin that is 4,000 sq ft and party till the event is over
Quoting jpsb:
12 feet? Really, I will be surprised if a general 12 foot surge occurs. I can see 12 feet where the local topography enhances a surge but not a general 12 foot surge.


Because Isaac is pushing around that much water due to its size. It really doesn't surprise me, I knew this might happen for a few days. I still think it will become a hurricane, but low end Category 2 tops now. Major hurricane is out of the question.
4637. ncstorm
Quoting jeffs713:

This blog was posted last night...


Ohhh..my fault..I thought this was a new blog..firefox is siking me out..
This is a big file to load but well worth it. Beautiful looking storm, hopefully it just provides much needed rain for the Mississippi valley. Isaac rapid refresh visible loop

Couple of things to note on this loop. To his east you can clearly see the dry air coming from the south, however notice the convection beginning to wrap towards the northeast on the south and south east side of the circulation. If it can wrap this core around his circulation he will have locked off most of the dry air being driven into his circulation. He should accomplish this by tonight if trends continue IMO.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Storm Surge Exceedance (10% chance):

SSE

Uh-oh...

Well...that's not good.
Quoting tkeith:
The new ones will...

I do see what you were saying about an eye feature on the infrared resolution...

Link
4641. jpsb
Quoting RitaEvac:


LOL, I'm sure Houston would panic, the coastal residents along the coast would take it in stride
Yup, but it would take a lot of west to get this to Houston, seems very unlikely.
Quoting dennis561:
Great Picture!!!!


Link
That one got me. Choked on my coffee. Still be careful with Isaac.
4643. LargoFl

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WESTERN MARTIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL NOON EDT.
4644. JasonRE
So if not MS/AL landfall, then what? More West towards SE LA/C LA?

Quoting tkeith:
The new ones will...
TKeith, your work area is goiing to get trashed. Y'all going to be cleaning up for days.
I thought once again, Stewart did an awesome job on the discussion. It was particularly interesting about the effect of frictional forces causing convection to fire in the NE quadrant as Isaac approaches landfall:

UNTIL THE
DRY AIR MIXES OUT...EROSION OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL ISAAC APPROACHES THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT THAT TIME...INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM
THE GULF COAST LAND MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH COULD ENABLE THE
STRENGTHENING PROCESS.

You don't hear stuff like that very often in a discussion by the NHC.
And no sooner do they post the intensity at a steady 55kts, then the Air Force hunter registers a sequential SFMR readings at 70, 66, 69 and 65kts.

Those readings come from the WNW eyewall region, and they're certainly contaminated by extraordinarily high rates of rainfall - 30-49mm/hour. But as squalls go, one which produces 60kt+ readings over seven consecutive measurements is fairly broad and impressive.

To me, it suggests that portions of this storm are already substantially stronger than the 55kt advisory intensity. And that if the ragged eyewall can simply hold together for a little while, and start to contract, we'll be looking at a hurricane by 2pm.
I don't recall a time when a tropical system rapidly intensified north of where Isaac is located presently. Isaac will have to rapidly intensify within twelve hours if this thing is going to make a shot at category 2 status. I remember when Hurricane Charley rapidly intensified from 110 to 150 in only three hours, but it was located in the southern gulf.
4649. ackee
Issac IS ON WERID STORM 988MB with just 65mph winds I am beging to wonder if it will ever become a hurricane
Here it comes towards NOLA.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Because Isaac is pushing around that much water due to its size. It really doesn't surprise me, I knew this might happen for a few days. I still think it will become a hurricane, but low end Category 2 tops now. Major hurricane is out of the question.


As you say 12 ft is not unrealistic, especially if Isaac is a slow mover.

Keep in mind there are battering waves on top of that surge..
4652. wxfan
ULL near Yucatan Peninsula is retreating to the west as forecast; that's why water vapor imagery shows less dry air intrusion on south end of the storm.
I still think general flooding from heavy rainfall will be a bigger threat than surge. Surge will definitely be an issue especially in particularly vulnerable areas, but I'm more worried about all the rain that will fall when Isaac slows down near the coast.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I thought once again, Stewart did an awesome job on the discussion. It was particularly interesting about the effect of frictional forces causing convection to fire in the NE quadrant as Isaac approaches landfall:

UNTIL THE
DRY AIR MIXES OUT...EROSION OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL ISAAC APPROACHES THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT THAT TIME...INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM
THE GULF COAST LAND MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH COULD ENABLE THE
STRENGTHENING PROCESS.

You don't hear stuff like that very often in a discussion by the NHC.

He really gets into the specifics for us techy hardcore weather geeks. I like that.
Quoting jeffs713:

And people well inland (like Katy) would evacuate, clogging the roads for everyone else.


Ahhh, yes, the long running Sci-Guy Rita gag. Whether it be drought or threat of storm someone somewhere will post on behalf of Katy, "should we evacuate...I live in Katy."
Quoting acl8610:
Btw more storms in Osceola county are rotating.... heading north


Not really. Rotation signature is not showing up on radar.
4657. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WESTERN MARTIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL NOON EDT.
Apreciate your updates Largo. I am at work and no TV here..
Isaac is giving us a great, big, sloppy, wet goodbye kiss this morning in Palm City. It has been pouring its guts out non-stop for about the last 2 hours. I hope some of this stuff makes it further north to help out with drought conditions.

So long, Isaac, and thanks for knocking over that palm tree in front of the building!
Long time lurker here. I'm in Baton Rouge and would love to know if anyone has an idea of when we might expect the wind and rain to get here tomorrow if the current track holds. Thanks to all of you informed posters - it really helps to have people like you post on this board. Stay safe everyone.
Quoting Masquer08er:
They do it for the same reason McDonalds warns that coffee is hot. LOL

Thats a great statement! Funny but true-
Stuck under that feeder band that goes all way down to Cuba. Very heavy rains and gusty winds, I'm also one of the parents glad that there is no school today. Broward County School Board, you did the right thing! Flash Flood Warning right now!
For all the NHC bashers: this is the forecast map from Thursday night. Note that Isaac's actual track has stayed perfectly inside the cone, and that the NHC appears to have nailed Isaac's intensity, as well.

Again. As usual.

NHC
4664. LargoFl
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Apreciate your updates Largo. I am at work and no TV here..
ok and ty..stay safe out there
4665. Chiggy
History tells us that Issac either makes a landfall EAST of NOLA or WEST of TX/LA border..!
Quoting jascott1967:


Ahhh, yes, the long running Sci-Guy Rita gag. Whether it be drought or threat of storm someone somewhere will post on behalf of Katy, "should we evacuate...I live in Katy."


LOL. Glad you picked up on it.

Actually, there really are people who will evacuate when they don't need to. For example, I was talking with one of my neighbors (I live in Tomball, by the way), and they asked me if we were going to evacuate for Isaac if he headed this way. I just looked at them like they were crazy, and my neighbor actually mentioned that if our coast goes under hurricane warning, they would be evacuating to Dallas.

So yes, it really does happen.
4667. bappit
Quoting LisaNola:
Long time lurker here. I'm in Baton Rouge and would love to know if anyone has an idea of when we might expect the wind and rain to get here tomorrow if the current track holds. Thanks to all of you informed posters - it really helps to have people like you post on this board. Stay safe everyone.

See the NWS web site for Baton Rouge and NO.
4668. acl8610
Quoting WeatherMSK:


Not really. Rotation signature is not showing up on radar.

Normally in tropical rainbands, rotation signatures dont look like couplets but rather shear lines, as is the case now
4669. LargoFl
...ISAAC MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...POSES SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I thought once again, Stewart did an awesome job on the discussion. It was particularly interesting about the effect of frictional forces causing convection to fire in the NE quadrant as Isaac approaches landfall:

UNTIL THE
DRY AIR MIXES OUT...EROSION OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL ISAAC APPROACHES THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT THAT TIME...INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM
THE GULF COAST LAND MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH COULD ENABLE THE
STRENGTHENING PROCESS.

You don't hear stuff like that very often in a discussion by the NHC.


I though the same thing - first I've ever heard of a land mass actually aiding the strengthening of a storm??
4671. JasonRE
Quoting LisaNola:
Long time lurker here. I'm in Baton Rouge and would love to know if anyone has an idea of when we might expect the wind and rain to get here tomorrow if the current track holds. Thanks to all of you informed posters - it really helps to have people like you post on this board. Stay safe everyone.


Same thing here in Lafayette. About 2 hours NW of New Orleans. Any idea?

Thanks
Quoting jeffs713:

This blog was posted last night...

I'd note, again, that the readings coming off the AF Hunter are contaminated by rainfall. But still, it just registered 70kts - and the forecast doesn't put the storm there for another 24 hours.

I have to say that the NHC is probably frustrated by Isaac's stubborn refusal to follow model guidance on intensity, and seems to have scaled back its forecasts in the presumption that the next 24hours will be pretty much like the last. But again, if that eyewall can hold, the strengthening could continue far ahead of the forecast.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For all the NHC bashers: this is the forecast map from Thursday night. Note that Isaac's actual track has stayed perfectly inside the cone, and that the NHC appears to have nailed Isaac's intensity, as well.

Again. As usual.

NHC


If anything, the models have been the erroneous ones at forecasting where this storm will go.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For all the NHC bashers: this is the forecast map from Thursday night. Note that Isaac's actual track has stayed perfectly inside the cone, and that the NHC appears to have nailed Isaac's intensity, as well.

Again. As usual.

NHC

Stop throwing facts at the NHC-bashing! Those pesky facts ruin EVERYTHING!
Sigh...

AFTER 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A SPREAD OF MORE THAN
500 N MI BETWEEN THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT
.
THE FORECAST TRACK AT DAYS 3-5 IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For all the NHC bashers: this is the forecast map from Thursday night. Note that Isaac's actual track has stayed perfectly inside the cone, and that the NHC appears to have nailed Isaac's intensity, as well.

Again. As usual.

NHC



Forecast path has been pretty good. (Cone has shifted westerly over the past few days) Intensity (as usual) has been the biggest issue.
Isaac has consistantly been weaker than forecasted.
4677. jake436
To those in MS. I lived in NOLA (Metairie) for the first 26 years of my life. Then I moved to just south of Hattiesburg. It has been my experience that storms that hit LA west of NOLA tend to recurve to the NE after landfall, and we typically get some bad weather (tornados) in S MS. Those first 26 years I lived in Metairie, my family always evacuated to MS where my family was from. (Probably because they did NOT evacuate for Betsy...and learned their lesson prior to my arrival on this earth) It depends on the direction of impact at the coast of course. I remember Frederic in '79, which hit Mobile, but came in at a NW angle. S MS got hit pretty hard. I remember Elena, S MS got hit hard. I remember Georges, S MS got hit hard. Even Gustav spawned a tornado that hit Purvis MS, felling a large tree onto my parents house.
Point is, be alert wherever you are. I think the terrain change from completely flat to hilly helps spawn some tornados, even far away from the COC.
4678. jpsb
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Because Isaac is pushing around that much water due to its size. It really doesn't surprise me, I knew this might happen for a few days. I still think it will become a hurricane, but low end Category 2 tops now. Major hurricane is out of the question.
Well maybe, but the largest surge I have ever seen from a TS was Tropical Storm Frances and that was 6 or 7 feet. 12 feet is a lot of water!
Quoting acl8610:

Normally in tropical rainbands, rotation signatures dont look like couplets but rather shear lines, as is the case now


I am not looking at the structure of the radar, but rather the base velocity rotation, which seems to be weakening and doesn't look impressive. Looks like they just canceled the tornado watches too. Cant verify that though.
The Air Force hunter in the storm just sent its final RECCO message and signed off the mission. Here's the Vortex Message it sent just before then (dispatched before it found its strongest winds to the WNW of the eye):

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 15:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 25
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 14:37:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°01'N 85°22'W (26.0167N 85.3667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 222 miles (357 km) between the WSW and W (259°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,334m (4,377ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 78 nautical miles (90 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 47kts (From the ESE at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:48:30Z
Quoting LargoFl:
Whatever this storm brings in the future, I'm going to do a little cheer right this second since he's bringing a few rain bands into South GA.

More please. A bit higher.

...Also, damn. He IS big isn't he? o.O
4682. LargoFl
hard to keep up with all the warnings in florida today whew..BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 1108 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SETTING UP OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
STREAMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES EVERY TWO HOURS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME. AS OF 1100 AM EDT...IMPACTS
CONSIST OF ROAD CLOSURES AS WELL AS CANAL LEVELS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CAPACITY AROUND THE WELLINGTON AREA IN PALM BEACH COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE AREAS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY TO THE BROWARD
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LINE.
4683. FL1980
When in doubt always stick with the NHC. They get it right almost every time. What is upseting is that the local media here in central florida over-hype every storm. Then they wonder why nobody pays attention when the time really comes.
Quoting CloudGatherer:

I'd note, again, that the readings coming off the AF Hunter are contaminated by rainfall. But still, it just registered 70kts - and the forecast doesn't put the storm there for another 24 hours.

I have to say that the NHC is probably frustrated by Isaac's stubborn refusal to follow model guidance on intensity, and seems to have scaled back its forecasts in the presumption that the next 24hours will be pretty much like the last. But again, if that eyewall can hold, the strengthening could continue far ahead of the forecast.

Yep. The models don't handle large storms like Isaac well. They just aren't designed to fully account for the physics of getting this much air and water moving. I remember the models had a very difficult time handling Ike when he put on weight and got into the GOM.
Quoting sailfish01:


I though the same thing - first I've ever heard of a land mass actually aiding the strengthening of a storm??
Happens all the time in the BoC. Sometimes shape of the terrain can tighten up a storm, and cause more convection.
Quoting Chiggy:
MS/AL border landfall is no longer the case as Issac moving towards SSW of that location. Which means few runs of Euro yesterday/today calling a landfall in this area is NOT materializing...
Issac will have to move NNW to verify 00Z Euro landfall - victory for GFS!


Disagree. Euro has outperformed GFS greatly on Isaac. Correctly modeled a weaker storm through Carribean, was the western outlier while GFS and others were showing east coast, then Florida tracks. GFS took days to come around and has only done so in past 24 hours. Prior to yesterday the GFS has been awful and Euro has done well all along.
4687. LargoFl
Quoting dogsgomoo:
Whatever this storm brings in the future, I'm going to do a little cheer right this second since he's bringing a few rain bands into South GA.

More please. A bit higher.

...Also, damn. He IS big isn't he? o.O
yes i imagine as BIG as this storm is,your surely going to get some of its rains which i know you folks really need
Quoting leelee75k:
Stuck under that feeder band that goes all way down to Cuba. Very heavy rains and gusty winds, I'm also one of the parents glad that there is no school today. Broward County School Board, you did the right thing! Flash Flood Warning right now!
It looks as though parts of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach are going to be trained upon for possibly the next several hours:

Isaac
Quoting jpsb:
Well maybe, but the largest surge I have ever seen from a TS was Tropical Storm Frances and that was 6 or 7 feet. 12 feet is a lot of water!


Did Frances have the windfield that Isaac has?
Very heavy rain and wind!! here in South Dade County,Miami,and I can see a nasty!!! feeder band coming all the way down from Cuba that will probably arrive in our area in a couple of hours,this has been a storm for the history!!,now we have to be prepare for flooding here in South Dade too IMO.
That feeling when your college cancels classes 15 minutes before the first ones.
from the 10:00 am discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 26.1N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 27.1N 86.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 28.3N 88.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 30.2N 90.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 31.9N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 35.2N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 39.3N 91.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
Quoting CloudGatherer:
The Air Force hunter in the storm just sent its final RECCO message and signed off the mission. Here's the Vortex Message it sent just before then (dispatched before it found its strongest winds to the WNW of the eye):

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 15:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 25
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 14:37:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°01'N 85°22'W (26.0167N 85.3667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 222 miles (357 km) between the WSW and W (259°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,334m (4,377ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 78 nautical miles (90 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 47kts (From the ESE at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:48:30Z


Seems like it may be getting stronger..
4694. acl8610
Quoting WeatherMSK:


I am not looking at the structure of the radar, but rather the base velocity rotation, which seems to be weakening and doesn't look impressive. Looks like they just canceled the tornado watches too. Cant verify that though.

look just to the NE of Saint Cloud, FL. The storm near Sanford has jumped the "warm-front like" feature and has weakened some tho...
Quoting Sfloridacat5:



Forecast path has been pretty good. (Cone has shifted westerly over the past few days) Intensity (as usual) has been the biggest issue.
Isaac has consistantly been weaker than forecasted.
Yes, the cone has moved around--but, again, Isaac has stayed inside that cone. Not always on the centerline--but inside the cone.

Too, Isaac may have been weaker, but even Thursday evening the NHC wasn't expecting a hurricane until this evening--which looks as it may happen.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For all the NHC bashers: this is the forecast map from Thursday night. Note that Isaac's actual track has stayed perfectly inside the cone, and that the NHC appears to have nailed Isaac's intensity, as well.

Again. As usual.

NHC
It was not the NHC that has a "problem". It's the media's interpretation and "spin" (hurricane, spin, LOL)
4697. LargoFl
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Very heavy rain and wind!! here in South Dade County,Miami,and I can see a nasty!!! feeder band coming all the way down from Cuba that will probably arrive in our area in a couple of hours,this has been a storm for the history!!,now we have to be prepare for flooding here in South Dade too IMO.
..stay safe down there..there is going to be alot of flooding when this is over for sure
this storm could rival Irene as the costliest Cat 1 Us landfall.
4699. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1112 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLZ037-040-271600-
MARION-PUTNAM-
1112 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PUTNAM
AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS
VALID UNTIL NOON EDT...

AT 1112 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST
OF JUNIPER SPRINGS TO 15 MILES EAST OF JUNIPER SPRINGS TO 32 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF JUNIPER SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND JUNIPER SPRINGS...
LYNNE...BURBANK...SALT SPRINGS...FORT MCCOY...GEORGETOWN...HOG
VALLEY...WELAKA...SATSUMA AND POMONA PARK THROUGH NOON EDT. GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available


hmmmmm?

That's a step back from the last vortex message.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For all the NHC bashers: this is the forecast map from Thursday night. Note that Isaac's actual track has stayed perfectly inside the cone, and that the NHC appears to have nailed Isaac's intensity, as well.

Again. As usual.

NHC
Superb!! job by the NHC as usual!!,they are 90 percent correct most of the time,a lot of technology to their disposal!!.
I'm really starting to think Alabama don't have anything to worry about no more. Isaac really looks like a dud. He can't get his pants on. Anyone else agree.

sheri
4703. deepee
Issac is going to be a major weather event for a good portion of the united states. He's an incredibly big storm.

Regardless of where he makes landfall, he will bring a ton of flooding rain to a large swath of the united states.
Quoting Chiggy:
History tells us that Issac either makes a landfall EAST of NOLA or WEST of TX/LA border..!


This storm has not followed historical patterns/probabilities thus far. I wouldn't count on it to start doing so now
I agree NHC has nailed this one! The news outlets and Republican Convention has hyped this up so much!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, the cone has moved around--but, again, Isaac has stayed inside that cone. Not always on the centerline--but inside the cone.

Too, Isaac may have been weaker, but even Thursday evening the NHC wasn't expecting a hurricane until this evening--which looks as it may happen.


And it is to be expected. As we know its not a perfect science. The cones shift and that's just part of the process.
It would be nice if Isaac's remnants buries itself deep into AR and MO after landfall...that area DESPERATELY needs rain.
Last vortex data message said the center was at:

261' N, 8522' W -- 10:37am this morning


Last buoy observation:

263' N, 8537' W -- 10:50am this morning


It is amazing how close to the buoy this was! The stats on the storm, from buoy readings, are:

a. 29.21in pressure, or 989.16 MB
b. 17.1 ft wave height (SE eye wall)
c. 85.1 F water temperature
4709. drj27
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I'm really starting to think Alabama don't have anything to worry about no more. Isaac really looks like a dud. He can't get his pants on. Anyone else agree.

sheri
im in ft.walton beach thats the way it looks to me too i could be wrong im no expert
Quoting LargoFl:
..stay safe down there..there is going to be alot of flooding when this is over for sure
Thank you!!,you too in the West Coast,this storm is really something else!!!,I thought that we were done yesterday afternoon!!!,but rain & wind basically none stop here in south Miami.
Go morning everyone. I just have a question for all the experts on this Blog. I live about 10 miles inside the MS/AL state line in MS. I noticed that the cone has moved and we are no longer in it. I have postponed getting any supplies because it is just a TS. Do you forsee any thing more than a little rain for us? Just seems like alot of people getting worked up.
4712. jake436
Quoting jpsb:
12 feet? Really, I will be surprised if a general 12 foot surge occurs. I can see 12 feet where the local topography enhances a surge but not a general 12 foot surge.
The GOM in the area this storm is hitting is shallower than say Florida Gulf Coast. Off the coast of MS, you can literally walk out 1/4 mile and be waist deep. The shallow shelf enhances storm surge. That's why you see Katrina/Camille 24'-28' surges in that area, which you wouldn't see anything close to that with a FL panhandle landfall.
Check in from Broward County. That one long band that is a line from South Dade thru Palm Beach county training north.. is right over us.

We now have OVER 10" of rain, you can float a boat down the street, except so windy and rainy it is white capping!

Water is now in neighbor's garage and starting to get in ours.. patio is almost flooded..
Back yard and pool is under water and water now up half way to front of house.. Side walk is about 7" deep....


Our area has gotten way more than our share of rain from Isaac, just not fair.. other areas needs some of this.
We were already soggy before Isaac.

Hope you are all good and safe...

Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I'm really starting to think Alabama don't have anything to worry about no more. Isaac really looks like a dud. He can't get his pants on. Anyone else agree.

sheri
I agree Sheri, We may get a lil wind (35 mph) and some rain. Other than that I don't see anything to get excited about
hey everyone, here in West Boynton Beach there has been severe flooding. Several streets in our our area are completely flooded and many of my friends back yards are now lakes. I think the biggest problem with Isaac is going to be the rain and water not neccesarily the wind. Good luck to everyone in his path
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
4717. will40
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Sigh...

AFTER 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A SPREAD OF MORE THAN
500 N MI BETWEEN THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT
.
THE FORECAST TRACK AT DAYS 3-5 IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.


Stay safe and use da shields i sent you. If he doesnt get stacked better than he is right now looks like a rain and storm surge event

4718. hydrus
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I'm really starting to think Alabama don't have anything to worry about no more. Isaac really looks like a dud. He can't get his pants on. Anyone else agree.

sheri
If I lived anywhere in Alabama I would not let my guard down. A slight change in storm direction, which is more than possible, could make a big difference. There also will be a flooding and tornado threat for the entire state.
Quoting caneswatch:
That feeling when your college cancels classes 15 minutes before the first ones.


That feeling when you're directly in the path of an oncoming hurricane, and your college posts the message:

"All campus activities remain scheduled; there are no cancellations to report. Stay tuned to local weather advisories for the latest storm information."

:O
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I'm really starting to think Alabama don't have anything to worry about no more. Isaac really looks like a dud. He can't get his pants on. Anyone else agree.

sheri
Wait until bedtime tonight before you plan a pool party for Tuesday ;-)
Quoting jake436:
The GOM in the area this storm is hitting is shallower than say Florida Gulf Coast. Off the coast of MS, you can literally walk out 1/4 mile and be waist deep. The shallow shelf enhances storm surge. That's why you see Katrina/Camille 24'-28' surges in that area, which you wouldn't see anything close to that with a FL panhandle landfall.


There will be heavy inland rainfall trying to drain into that surge as well.
I think the biggest issue with forecasting Isaac's track has been the overall intensity. Although tropical cyclone intensity forecasting is rather difficult, it has been especially troublesome for the NHC with this storm. That's expected, though, because it's nearly impossible to predict what the exact intensity of a storm will be even if the environment is working for the cyclone itself.
4723. bappit
Quoting greenecoms1:
Go morning everyone. I just have a question for all the experts on this Blog. I live about 10 miles inside the MS/AL state line in MS. I noticed that the cone has moved and we are no longer in it. I have postponed getting any supplies because it is just a TS. Do you forsee any thing more than a little rain for us? Just seems like alot of people getting worked up.

Check the Mobile NWS web site for info.
Quoting dennis561:
Great Picture!!!!


Link
Seen this used with other storms. Like the one better with the fallen lawn chair and beer freshly tipped-over. I'm sure someone on here has it.
4725. Chiggy
Quoting StormSurgeon:


00Z Euro calls for AL/MS landfall which I think is not happening - Sure, Euro was the first one to elude to a more WEST path but it's doesn't bode well for a model IF it's going to be wrong 2-3 days out from a landfall.. who cares what it was predicting 5 days ago..

And remember, Euro along with UKMET are the only EAST outliers. 12Z run can change all that BUT for now GFS may prove better than EURO; Debby and now potentially Issac.
Really confused...NHC shows a slosh map that shows a possible 12 surge at Mandeville...NWS shows 5-8....
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Superb!! job by the NHC as usual!!,they are 90 percent correct most of the time,a lot of technology to their disposal!!.


This post!!! Needs more!!! Exclamation! Marks!!!!!
Quoting leelee75k:
Stuck under that feeder band that goes all way down to Cuba. Very heavy rains and gusty winds, I'm also one of the parents glad that there is no school today. Broward County School Board, you did the right thing! Flash Flood Warning right now!


Nothing closed in Central Florida. Still having heavy squalls, tornado warnings/watches and rolling THUNDER. I don't recall having thunder and lightning in tropical systems.

Can the blob pounding Florida be described in anyway separate from Issac now? It's like a system of it's own now.
Here is the top preformers..the average model error for Isaac in nautical miles.. lower numbers are good.

Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr 120hr

OFCL 1.0 57.0 69.1 62.6 114.4 199.8
RYOC 0 47.2 75.7 49.2 75.7 175.4
TCOA 0 59.9 78.5 77.0 105.3 182.5
TV15 0 59.3 76.6 88.6 117.7 161.9
TVCA 0 61.3 69.9 69.6 99.0 141.8
TVCC 0 60.7 65.5 68.3 102.8 169.7
TVCE 0 61.3 69.9 69.6 99.0 141.8
TVCN 0 61.3 69.9 69.6 99.0 141.8
EGRR 25.6 60.6 85.6 75.7 61.9 132.0
FIM9 24.1 50.0 68.5 90.6 134.4 -
MRCL 0 54.6 67.2 72.1 - -
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I'm really starting to think Alabama don't have anything to worry about no more. Isaac really looks like a dud. He can't get his pants on. Anyone else agree.

sheri


I think for an adjuster you are pretty nearsighted. This storm is far from a dud, and I think people are not taking it seriously enough.

New Orleans certainly has plenty of things to worry about...and I bet Mobile Bay does as well.
Quoting bappit:

Check the Mobile NWS web site for info.


Thanks!
4733. CJ5
Quoting Elena85Vet:
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available


hmmmmm?

That's a step back from the last vortex message.


Yes, I would not read anything into that. They have not reported info on the eye several times over the past 3 days.
4734. CJ5
Quoting Hurricane12:


If anything, the models have been the erroneous ones at forecasting where this storm will go.


Nope, he is with the margin or error that was reported by most models 4 days ago.
Quoting jeffs713:


LOL. Glad you picked up on it.

Actually, there really are people who will evacuate when they don't need to. For example, I was talking with one of my neighbors (I live in Tomball, by the way), and they asked me if we were going to evacuate for Isaac if he headed this way. I just looked at them like they were crazy, and my neighbor actually mentioned that if our coast goes under hurricane warning, they would be evacuating to Dallas.

So yes, it really does happen.


I lived most my life in Katy and was living in MN when I was following Rita and then Ike. I remember real people in Katy sincerely asking the Sci Guy if they should evacuate. I heard I-10 and Hwy 6 were a mess!
4736. jpsb
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Did Frances have the windfield that Isaac has?
So yes, Frances was a very big girl.

she effected all of the Mexican coast,all of the Texas coast, sw La too. Check out her rain field
4737. bwi
Seems very much like Ike -- another very large system that seemed to have lower-than-expected winds going through the gulf until it got its act together just before landfall. Isaac's large wind field will push a lot of water into unwanted places, even if the core winds never get much above hurricane strength.
4738. CJ5
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I'm really starting to think Alabama don't have anything to worry about no more. Isaac really looks like a dud. He can't get his pants on. Anyone else agree.

sheri


If it goes into NO, then we will have plenty of rain, some storm surge on the coast and the threat of tornado's all day. If he stalls as anticipated by some, those conditions will be around for several days.
Quoting hydrus:
If I lived anywhere in Alabama I would not let my guard down. A slight change in storm direction, which is more than possible, could make a big difference. There also will be a flooding and tornado threat for the entire state.


Well said. No guarantees on an exact center landfall yet; and, since there's a large windfield most of the coastal areas will feel considerable degraded conditions including wind, tornadoes, surge and copious amounts of rain. No one should be taking this lightly.
Isaac ace so far is 5.43.

Bolaven has amassed an ace of 34.5975...
4741. Dakster
What a difference between Isaac and Bolaven.
Quoting NOLALawyer:


I think for an adjuster you are pretty nearsighted. This storm is far from a dud, and I think people are not taking it seriously enough.

New Orleans certainly has plenty of things to worry about...and I bet Mobile Bay does as well.


You bet!
Quoting reedzone:


I personally believe the NHC was tracking a vortex south of the actual center.. Isaac is probably a Hurricane now.
I personally believe that you're just a fool if you think that you have the ability to track/forecast storms better than the NHC. Is there ANYTHING that you've gotten correct with this storm(not to mention years of other storms).
Quoting jpsb:
Yup, but it would take a lot of west to get this to Houston, seems very unlikely.


Not coming to Houston, Odds are very slim. Stranger things have happened, but not this time.
4745. keisa90
I know Isaac isn't going due west, but doesn't it look like it is tracking WNW and not NW?
Looks like a cat5 at the next update. Get your blue tubs and Heineken ready.

4747. zosimo
how disappointed is TWC that Isaac is barely gonna be a hurricane when it goes ashore!? the hysterical coverage of Isaac by TWC is truly a sad reflection on it espically since it was taken over by NBC. Heck, even if Isaac came ashore as a CAT 1 or 2 it would have been promoted by TWC as an end of the world hurricane when in reality those CAT are not that dangerous as the media would like one to believe. As it was last year when, I think it was Irene, was going up the east coast TWC hyped the danger on that to a very embarrassing level as it is doing with Isaac.
I can not even begin to imagine what TWC coverage would be like if a CAT 4 or 5 got into the GULF...but it all gets down to the ratings NBC is hoping for hurricane after hurricane........