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Isaac lashing the Keys; an eyewall is building

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac is steadily organizing as it lashes the Florida Keys with heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds. Sustained winds of 44 mph and 41 mph have been observed at Molasses Reef and Sombrero Key, respectively, this morning. Radar out of Key West shows an increase in spiral banding, and the beginnings of an eyewall. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft completed its first pass through the center of Isaac near 11:30 am EDT, and did not find the pressure had fallen, or that the peak winds had increased. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is a large and increasingly well-organized storm. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is quite good and increasing to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. Moderate wind shear and dry air to the south are interfering with heavy thunderstorm development on Isaac's south side. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least four people.


Figure 1. Morning reflectivity image from the Radar out of Key West radar shows the northwest section of an eyewall beginning to form to the southeast of the city.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly, and we can no longer be confident we know where Isaac will make landfall on the Gulf Coast. One camp of models, the UKMET and ECMWF, predict that a trough of low pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. will be strong enough to turn Isaac north to a landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The other set of models, the GFDL, GFS, and HWRF, predict the trough will bypass Isaac, and a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to a landfall over Louisiana. The official NHC forecast averages out these two extremes, calling for a landfall midway between the two solutions. Odds are, one of the two model solutions will turn out to be the correct one, and the NHC will be forced to make a substantial adjustment in their forecast track to the east or the west. Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding and drought relief over the South. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over Southeast Louisiana, where it predicts Isaac will make landfall. The ECMWF model, however, these heavy rains will fall more over the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia.


Figure 2. A hurricane forecaster's dilemma: which set of models is correct? The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly. Our two top models--the GFS and ECMWF--have 72-hour forecasts that are about 350 miles apart. The ECMWF forecast is not shown here, but lies just to the west of the UKMET forecast (white line.)

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola and Cuba relatively intact. It's large size aided this. Isaac is over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) with high total heat content in the Florida Straits, but is encountering moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear is predicted to relax to the light range tonight as an upper-level anticyclone becomes established over the storm. This should allow for more substantial intensification after Isaac passes the Florida Keys. However, the total heat content of the ocean decreases for Isaac Monday morning as it encounters a relatively cool ocean eddy in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. If Isaac takes a more westerly track, passing due south of the Central Louisiana coast, the storm will encounter a modest warm eddy, which would aid intensification. The intensify forecasts from the various models are very divergent. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model keeps Isaac as a strong tropical storm until landfall in Louisiana. Isaac will undergo rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane as it hits New Orleans, says the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the HWRF model. The ECMWF model has Isaac as a strong Category 2 storm with a central pressure near 950 mb as it hits near the Alabama/Florida border.

Comparing Isaac with Ike of 2008
The current situation with Isaac is similar in some ways to that of Hurricane Ike of 2008. Ike spent considerable time over Cuba, weakening from a Category 4 to a Category 1 storm. The storm couldn't put its energy into building a strong inner core, but it was able to build up its outer rainbands that were over very warm waters. This resulted in a major expansion of its wind field, with tropical storm-force winds extending out 275 miles from the center at one point. Ike was able to intensify into a Category 2 storm on its path towards Texas, and had an unusually low pressure for a Cat 2 storm with 100 mph winds--944 mb. That's a central pressure more typical of a Category 3 storm, but Ike could only manage Category 2 winds, since it had such a large chunk of the atmosphere to keep spinning. With Isaac's TS winds already extending out to 205 miles, maybe we'll see another Ike-type situation as it intensifies--the storm will have an unusually low pressure in order to keep a huge wind field spinning, but never make it above Category 2, since it will take so long to spin up such a large wind field.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Isaac is a very large storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. The latest 3:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0 on a scale of 1 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 1 to 6. A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 650 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 50% chance of developing by Tuesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop late this week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles, arriving around September 2.

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post. I'm in Atlanta to help out The Weather Channel with their on-air hurricane coverage, and will be on either in the afternoon or evening on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Joanie38:
..


Dad was looking for it on local channels, can't find the conference..


The L.A. governor is pretty impressive. Just said he's not leaving his state while the citizens are in harms way. Way cool.
TWC commenting on how the center was supposed to go over the Keys yet moved to the West of the Keys... wobble or trend
Quoting dader:
Unless this system begins to get organized in the Gulf and tightens up with some banding, this storm will remain on overhype. Basically, just raising gas prices and dumping tropical weather in the tropics.

Until there is a tight COC= no big dealio.


Are you serious?
Quoting dader:
Unless this system begins to get organized in the Gulf and tightens up with some banding, this storm will remain on overhype. Basically, just raising gas prices and dumping tropical weather in the tropics.

Until there is a tight COC= no big dealio.

There IS a tight COC look at radar!!!!!
Quoting muddertracker:


The L.A. governor is pretty impressive. Just said he's not leaving his state while the citizens are in harms way. Way cool.
Way Past cool.
Quoting lobdelse81:

hey! language, please.

He's been reported/flagged.
hmmm
Quoting LouisianaWoman:
So the high over Texas is retreating? Will this call for further west? Is that why some models are hinting at a Rita landfall?


its moving more like the great galveston storm back in 1980
Quoting nola70119:
12Z Euro Operational pointing at Mississippi.......hmmm.


You mean the ensembles.

12z Euro Ensembles are in SE Louisiana/MS.

I'm so sleepy I can't keep my eyes open, just waiting for the 5 pm then nap time! Maybe we'll get some rain and wind as we were promised! All's quiet here in Highlands County... Could use a good rain storm for perfect sleeping....
Quoting huntsvle:


size dampers wind...but not necessarily surge.


Very true... I'm just throwing out what little hope I can :)
Quoting lobdelse81:

hey! language, please.


hey!!! don't quote!!
Quoting StormHype:
TWC live report on beach with *gloves* on. WTF? Must be sweating like a SOB. lol
Maybe hiding a bad manicure?
Schools canceled Monday and Tuesday in Escambia Co. Fl (Pensacola).


Just got the phone call from the super...
2016. pcola57
2017. GetReal



Isaac is expandind the size of his core and is feeling the OPEN waters of the SE GOM....
Differences in the big four: @72 hours:



@96 hours:

Quoting interstatelover7165:
Way Past cool.


Maybe, but the rest of the RNC will go on as scheduled while people are suffering or dying because of Isaac
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Maybe hiding a bad manicure?

Lol.
Quoting watercayman:
As an indicator of just how big this thing is, we're still getting southerly wind squalls and rain down here, 500-600 miles south and under Cuba.

Amazing. Hopefully that size hinders it from building up...

JUST measured it on google earth, 700 miles N to S and 900 miles E to W
BIG storm
Quoting Joanie38:
..


Dad was looking for it on local channels, can't find the conference..


He just wrapped up on WWL. You can probably stream in from their website. wwltv.com
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Way Past cool.

That reminds me of the old Sonic the Hedgehog cartoons. lol
Quoting watercayman:


Very true... I'm just throwing out what little hope I can :)


and as an addendum, it may have overall weaker winds but you still have a larger area of sustained high winds....soooooo
TWC channel saying isaac hasnt stregthened much. thoughts?
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
2100 UTC SUN AUG 26 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER
BEACH IS DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUSIANA TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY IS
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST AND FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 82.3W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 80SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 82.3W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 81.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.1N 83.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.3N 85.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.7N 87.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.9N 88.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.7N 89.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 82.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting yoboi:


look at the latest gfs....i think it picked all this up...reed levi drake hope ya'll study the layers now might help ya'll down the road...
Quoting yoboi:



levi watch the next 24 hrs with layers ya will learn alot...not bashing ya just watch...
Let's see your marvelously insightful, educated - and what's more, flawless - analysis of the system... not bashin' ya, just sayin'.
MSWX how far do you live away from the coast?.
2029. airmet3
The HGX NWS discussion says the NHC is going with Mississippi at this time, though us Texans need to keep an eye on it for sure.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Hopefully unless it works out that dry slot. Those discreet cells that are starting to form there are an indication of moistening.




Moistening? There is no "dry slot" in a well formed tropical system like this. Just because there isn't rain in a region of a storm, doesn't mean there isn't high moisture there, that's a big meteorological no-no.

Here you go, tell me where in Isaac can you find a dry slot below? This is about as much moisture as the air can possibly hold.

Quoting MississippiWx:


You mean the ensembles.

12z Euro Ensembles are in SE Louisiana/MS.



12z operational still shows a fl/al landfall
2032. Axelia
Kctinney, regarding Orlando area, I'm an hour west and all we've had thus far is one strong rain/wind band earlier today. Since it's moving so far to the west, I'm not expecting that much of an event in this area. Just some more rain and wind but not as fierce as was projected 24 hours ago.
2034. yoboi
levi i went to met school, if ya want to really learn weather, i ask you for one storm to only use current surface maps and radar and you will learn alot...it's old school but you will learn to see the BIG picture...just some advice ya can, can it or take it but if ya go to met school they will require ya to do it that way once or twice....
weatherbellmodels has Isaac going west to New Orleans.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Differences in the big four: @72 hours:



@96 hours:



GFS consistency i see there. I would expect the NHC to shift slightly more west at the next advisory.
2037. GetReal
Well just spotted some lines forming at gasoline stations... The price of gasoline has risen $.09, since I filled my gasoline containers this morning.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Moistening? There is no "dry slot" in a well formed tropical system like this. Just because there isn't rain in a region of a storm, doesn't mean there isn't high moisture there, that's a big meteorological no-no.

Here you go, tell me where in Isaac can you find a dry slot below? This is about as much moisture as the air can possibly hold.


You didnt get the suspect area on ur map :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
MSWX how far do you live away from the coast?.


About 50 miles. Far enough inland to not worry about water, of course, but winds/tornadoes/flooding from heavy rain is a different story.
Pasch doesn't have Isaac becoming a hurricane until 28/06Z (Tuesday morning). He has officially lost his mind.
Hurricane warning issued for Gulf coast from Morgan City, LA, to Destin, FL.
Here come the bashing...

The only thing that is inhibiting isaac to a RI is the dry air in the south and southwest...THE ONLY!!!
Not to us. Gotta makes some calls. :)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Moistening? There is no "dry slot" in a well formed tropical system like this. Just because there isn't rain in a region of a storm, doesn't mean there isn't high moisture there, that's a big meteorological no-no.

Here you go, tell me where in Isaac can you find a dry slot below? This is about as much moisture as the air can possibly hold.

to the SW there a little.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pasch doesn't have Isaac becoming a hurricane until 28/06Z (Tuesday morning). He has officially lost his mind.


He's put the pressure at 994, when recon clearly shows it to be 992.
wtf is up with the dry air? in the past 5 years i have seen more dry air in the tropics than i ever have in my life.....

how in the hell there is so much dry air in the tropics is beyond me??? could it be a result of global warming?
That is an awful intensity forecast.
Ap is reporting Oil and Gas are evacuating platforms in the Gulf... No surprise here back to what you were doing...
As will the DNC.
Quoting brywalker:


Maybe, but the rest of the RNC will go on as scheduled while people are suffering or dying because of Isaac

Quoting Jedkins01:


Moistening? There is no "dry slot" in a well formed tropical system like this. Just because there isn't rain in a region of a storm, doesn't mean there isn't high moisture there, that's a big meteorological no-no.

Here you go, tell me where in Isaac can you find a dry slot below? This is about as much moisture as the air can possibly hold.



I agree...PWats less than that cause flooding rains on systems onland...even when it's the season for that type of moisture.

I concur.
Pasch nurfed the intensity forecast. No hurricane until Tuesday? Really Pasch?
Looks like a Katrina Path.
Quoting muddertracker:


The L.A. governor is pretty impressive. Just said he's not leaving his state while the citizens are in harms way. Way cool.


He is an EXCELLENT Governor!!! He takes good care of his State!!!!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Here come the bashing...


S S????
...CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST... ...U.S. Warnings in Effect...
5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 26
Location: 24.2°N 82.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
2057. bappit
Quoting floridaboy14:
TWC channel saying isaac hasnt stregthened much. thoughts?

It hasn't strengthened much. Check out the recon and surface obs if you don't believe them.
Quoting MississippiWx:


You mean the ensembles.

12z Euro Ensembles are in SE Louisiana/MS.



Thanks
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


He's put the pressure at 994, when recon clearly shows it to be 992.


No, wait, either it's been changed or iI'm going mad. Either is entirely possible.
2060. wpb
there keeping a ts for at leat another 24 hr and max out high end cat1 minor2
really? by monday afternoon he becomes a hurricane? seriously its better to overcast than downcast this storm
2062. flcanes
Quoting floridaboy14:
really? by monday afternoon he becomes a hurricane? seriously its better to overcast than downcast this storm

true
Quoting floridaboy14:
really? by monday afternoon he becomes a hurricane? seriously its better to overcast than downcast this storm


??????
Isaac has way too much open territory to cover before landfall.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


??????


Old.
Still barely shifted....man. What in the world.
Quoting bappit:

It hasn't strengthened much. Check out the recon and surface obs if you don't believe them.
Overall appearance is better than 12 hours ago. pressures falling. Winds will catch up soon.
Quoting wpb:
there keeping a ts for at leat another 24 hr and max out high end cat1 minor2

The last time i am posting this image
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

S S????


thats the 11am...
2071. LBAR
Another huge "win" for the GFS. I stand corrected!
Quoting yoboi:
levi i went to met school, if ya want to really learn weather, i ask you for one storm to only use current surface maps and radar and you will learn alot...it's old school but you will learn to see the BIG picture...just some advice ya can, can it or take it but if ya go to met school they will require ya to do it that way once or twice....


What do surface maps tell you?
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

S S????

Old... Get a new one before going against people. Geez...
2074. air360
If the models keep pushing this more left left left - it will soon have moved all the way around the compass and be heading back S or E again <--(just a joke people...dont freak)
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

The last time i am posting this image


It's the WRONG image. Just look at the top. 11am EDT.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

The last time i am posting this image
That's 11 am, dude...
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

The last time i am posting this image


stil the 11am...
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


He's put the pressure at 994, when recon clearly shows it to be 992.

5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 26
Location: 24.2°N 82.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
2080. breald
Warnings up for LA to western FL Panhandle. That is a large area. It looks like LA/Ms will get the landfall.
2081. flcanes
Quoting Bluestorm5:

Old... Get a new one before going against people. Geez...

what does" s s" mean
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Hurricane warning issued for Gulf coast from Morgan City, LA, to Destin, FL.
So have the tracks changed any? I see the new warnings up for the 5:00 but can anyone advise on the tracks?
Quoting Abacosurf:
to the SW there a little.



No, a PWAT of 2.0 or greater is deep tropical moisture. The PWAT there is 2.5 inches, that's still excessive moisture. If you don't believe me, ask a real meteorologist. Isaac has a large swath of extremely high moisture, the reasons for why some regions of the storm don't have rain can't be blamed on dry air, it's more complex than that.

If you go far enough southwest yes, but that isn't part of the storm, you will always have sharp drop off in moisture as you get that far away to the southwest of a tropical cyclone.
Jim Cantore just got to Tampa and was there for maybe a few seconds and now he's already getting shipped out to New Orleans.
Questionable intensity forecast at best there... He's the expert, but a hurricane Tuesday morning is way conservative.
Damned if you do...Damned if you don't.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 26
Location: 24.2°N 82.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


The initial forecast advisory put out said 994mb, but it has been changed. Just go back and look at it as it was when TropicalAnalyst posted it here.
If Isaac doesn't intensify now the forecast could be right.I do think a major is still possible.
new low 1012 mb..
Quoting Stormchaser121:
Still barely shifted....man. What in the world.


They're not buying the GFS.
Quoting Joanie38:


He is an EXCELLENT Governor!!! He takes good care of his State!!!!


I'm in Texas..I wouldn't know an excellent governor if he fell in my lap (and with our gubenetorial track record...that's actually a drunken possibility)
Quoting huntsvle:


I agree...PWats less than that cause flooding rains on systems onland...even when it's the season for that type of moisture.

I concur.



Correct!
Quoting LBAR:
Another huge "win" for the GFS. I stand corrected!


No...GFS did not have this solution until yesterday

Most of the time the GFS was off, nrtl posted the margin of error for the models and the GFS was way down the list...The Euro had this solution way before any other model swung west

but of course the GFS will continue to get the praise it does not deserve.
went to the store just now shelves are empty......
come back now im under hurricane warning and the doom cone is about 30 mins east of my house. ( the center of the cone)
2095. yoboi
Quoting CatfishJones:
Let's see your marvelously insightful, educated - and what's more, flawless - analysis of the system... not bashin' ya, just sayin'.


surface maps tell the story....they change if ya follow them they will tell ya where the storm will go...not good for predicting the future but it will tell ya where the storm will go..
Brawley CA another 5.4 quake a few mins ago.
Quoting wxgeek723:
Jim Cantore just got to Tampa and was there for maybe a few seconds and now he's already getting shipped out to New Orleans.


Cantore has been in Tampa for a few days.
Not entirely sure I agree with the intensity forecast, I mean, it doesn't look like Pasch thinks that Isaac will strengthen for a day almost.
kudos the NHC... the current center fix is only 100 miles to the west south west of the original forecast point 5 days out when the storm first formed. They have done a great job with this storm!
2101. WxLogic
All right...

Currently the main convection is displaced from the center to the N of it. Pressure appears to be up 1MB which should be expected due to the loss of convection.

Dry air still being an issue so Isaac still has to work on that core more.
Quoting Jedkins01:



No, a PWAT of 2.0 or greater is deep tropical moisture. The PWAT to the southwest is 2.5 inches, that's still excessive moisture. If you don't believe me, ask a real meteorologist. Isaac has a large swath of extremely high moisture, the reasons for why some regions of the storm don't have rain can't be blamed on dry air, it's more complex than that.


What do you expect for us in St Pete/Tampa based on the most recent track?
So Pasch writes a two paragraph discussion for a system that could be a major hurricane making landfall in the next 3 days. Wow. Where is Stacy Stewart???
Quoting Tazmanian:



Pasch is a nut head what he trying too pull


Following protocol? I wonder how concerned the NHC and governmental agencies are about a panic situation--even if it is just a "preceived" threat? I'm so glad I don't have to make these calls.
I'm not going to spend ages bashing the NHC over their intensity forecast, but there is no way this is taking 36 hours to hit hurricane status.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not entirely sure I agree with the intensity forecast, I mean, it doesn't look like Pasch thinks that Isaac will strengthen for a day almost.




that will turn out too be wrong
2107. SykKid
they keep him weak.

excellent news for everyone
Quoting Axelia:
Kctinney, regarding Orlando area, I'm an hour west and all we've had thus far is one strong rain/wind band earlier today. Since it's moving so far to the west, I'm not expecting that much of an event in this area. Just some more rain and wind but not as fierce as was projected 24 hours ago.


Thank you
Not one bit surprised about the track and position of landfall for Isaac. I am however baffled by the intensity forecast, especially the first 36 hours. I mean you have got to by kidding me?
No one's bashing anyone. This is a blog where we share our opinions and that's exactly what we're doing.
Quoting WxLogic:
All right...

Currently the main convection is displaced from the center to the N of it. Pressure appears to be up 1MB which should be expected due to the loss of convection.

Dry air still being an issue so Isaac still has to work on that core more.

Up a millibar? It's down to 992 millibars.
Quoting Tazmanian:




are you trying too get bannd
Stay weather related.
Pascagoula, MS here....what do you guys think?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Not to us. Gotta makes some calls. :)

we arent out of the woods yet!
Jim Cantore is going to be in NOLA after SNF. As you were...
2118. deb1
Quite eerie, watching this. Some of the forecasts are showing Isaac hitting New Orleans 7 years to the day after Katrina.
2119. SykKid
Quoting WxLogic:
All right...

Currently the main convection is displaced from the center to the N of it. Pressure appears to be up 1MB which should be expected due to the loss of convection.

Dry air still being an issue so Isaac still has to work on that core more.


....im sorry but what are you talking about
Quoting wxgeek723:
Jim Cantore just got to Tampa and was there for maybe a few seconds and now he's already getting shipped out to New Orleans.


So they're sending "The Shield" to NO? Hope his protection continues to work for them.
Quoting MississippiWx:
So Pasch writes a two paragraph discussion for a system that could be a major hurricane making landfall in the next 3 days. Wow. Where is Stacy Stewart???

They are probably so on edge over the it ain't even funny. Probably scrambling at light speed.

I agree though. I did not care for that discussion one bit.
Anyone else see some weirdness with the CoC on radar?

Something is changing, and I'm not talking about intensity.

Maybe it's stalling or changing directions, I'm not sure.
Quoting Civicane49:



That's a great pic. Looks like he's thrown off the confining shackles of Cuba and Florida and is now going to show the world what he's made of. He's a big boy and getting bigger, and I fear he's also going to be bad. Maybe only a cat 2 at landfall, but pushing an Ike sized wall of water in front of him. Major disaster looming.


Here is my Afternoon Update video blog Link
interesting, plaquemines parish president - levees are 30ft, surge predicted 5 to 10ft. Decision on schools this afternoon...
other thing i like too point out is that are storm has slow down too 16 mph
2128. GetReal
2129. airmet3
Quoting MississippiWx:
So Pasch writes a two paragraph discussion for a system that could be a major hurricane making landfall in the next 3 days. Wow. Where is Stacy Stewart???

Brevity is a lost art.
look at his southern side. its covering him. he should become a hurricane possibly tonight
Quoting saltydog1127:
Pascagoula, MS here....what do you guys think?


Maybe not the best week to hold a Family Reunion at the Beach... You know...
2133. gator23
Quoting Hurricanes101:


No...GFS did not have this solution until yesterday

Most of the time the GFS was off, nrtl posted the margin of error for the models and the GFS was way down the list...The Euro had this solution way before any other model swung west

but of course the GFS will continue to get the praise it does not deserve.


it deserved it with debby...
It seems the major news networks are more interested in the convention schedule then Isaac and his potential affects on the U.S...
Maybe NHC is looking at the large size of the circulation. That will take quite a while to consolidate and may be the difference between at Cat 1 to a Cat 2 at landfall. That may be the saving grace but tomorrow will tell.
Recon's heading home.
Quoting MississippiWx:
So Pasch writes a two paragraph discussion for a system that could be a major hurricane making landfall in the next 3 days. Wow. Where is Stacy Stewart???
Good question. Stewart should be the designated discussion writer. Even if it isn't his shift and he's at home, he should e-mail it to them.
2138. SykKid
im cant believe it.

the update omg it bad
The 12z Euro ensembles and the 12z GFS ensembles are in much better agreement than their respective operational runs

Euro ensemble:



GFS ensemble:

Moving again...Live mobile video of eye moving over Key West FL:
Mobile Live feed - Key West FL
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Anyone else see some weirdness with the CoC on radar?

Something is changing, and I'm not talking about intensity.

Maybe it's stalling or changing directions, I'm not sure.
Almost looks like it turned north
2144. gator23
Quoting RTSplayer:
Anyone else see some weirdness with the CoC on radar?

Something is changing, and I'm not talking about intensity.

Maybe it's stalling or changing directions, I'm not sure.


I have been posting this for n hour now. The COC has stalled or is drifting north.

2145. airmet3
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Maybe NHC is looking at the large size of the circulation. That will take quite a while to consolidate and may be the difference between at Cat 1 to a Cat 2 at landfall. That may be the saving grace but tomorrow will tell.


They and Dr. Masters have been saying this for the past two days.
nice tropical wave!!!
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY IS
DISCONTINUED.

5 pm nhc report

This is good news. I felt earlier they would drop the warning down to a watch. But they went to nothing.
Odd, because they left the warning up for Pinellas, which of course is south and adjacent to Pasco.
Quoting kidd5433:
Jim Cantore is going to be in NOLA after SNF. As you were...


Bet he won't go to Biloxi again...
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Differences in the big four: @72 hours:



@96 hours:

Well, considering how well the GFS did with Debby - the GOM is a fish tank compared to open-water analysis - and it wants to take Isaac West after landfall... I would drop the Euro if I was planning emergency operations for LA and TX.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good question. Stewart should be the designated discussion writer. Even if it isn't his shift and he's at home, he should e-mail it to them.


I'm just amazed at how nonchalant Pasch seemed to be in the discussion. It seemed like he had no worry that it could be a bad storm.
2152. GetReal
Quoting RTSplayer:
Anyone else see some weirdness with the CoC on radar?

Something is changing, and I'm not talking about intensity.

Maybe it's stalling or changing directions, I'm not sure.



Just looking at that from a different perspective... You may find your answer here... Very interesting; I have never observed coud tops boiling before!!!

Link
Quoting Stormchaser121:

we arent out of the woods yet!


Yeah, we'll see. At this point I hope the NHC is right.
Could the political people go talk on a politics blog? Those of us in harm's way are not in the mood for that right now.

This shear map is from noon today. Hopefully there will be an update at 6 p.m. est
Quoting washingtonian115:
It seems the major news networks are more interested in the convention schedule then Isaac and his potential affects on the U.S...


That will change very quickly. 7-years ago today...

What guidance other than the HWRF is there for faster intensification than what Pasch has?
2158. flsky
Band going thru Ponce Inlet, FL at the moment. Decent amount of rain and wind.
2159. WxLogic
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Up a millibar? It's down to 992 millibars.


Not sure why... didn't see a reading that would be even rounded down to 992MB... but then again I'm not in the HH nor NHC to get the tools they have. So it stayed at 992MB... I'll go with that.
Quoting yonzabam:



That's a great pic. Looks like he's thrown off the confining shackles of Cuba and Florida and is now going to show the world what he's made of. He's a big boy and getting bigger, and I fear he's also going to be bad. Maybe only a cat 2 at landfall, but pushing an Ike sized wall of water in front of him. Major disaster looming.
Very good point. Geographic size usually means larger wind-field size which means greater surge potential. Unfortunately, the current category system only accounts for wind speed. Rainfall potential and surge potential should be considered for land-falling storms. After all, flooding is the leading cause of fatalities.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


They're not buying the GFS.

I wonder why?
I don't get it.. if gfs & gfdl are moving west why are they still saying N O ?
Quoting deb1:
Quite eerie, watching this. Some of the forecasts are showing Isaac hitting New Orleans 7 years to the day after Katrina.


They say History repeats itself, though 7 years sames a bit too soon history wise. WE had Paloma in 2008 hit Cayman Brac 76 years to the date after it was devastated by the 1932 Hurricane( strange, weird and makes one wonder)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


That will change very quickly. 7-years ago today...

Pretty close to the same track and the NHC mentioned the warm water loop current. I wonder what other factors are the same as back then.
2165. ITCZ
Weather station at Key West, FL is reporting sustained winds of 63 mph. http://bit.ly/MUr9zT

.....this blog is kind of addictive isn't it?
2166. yoboi
Quoting nola70119:


What do surface maps tell you?


how far west it can go and a weakness to the east...
THIS IS OFF TOPIC..but I do want to apologise to BOBSLED27 ,who was not the poster that prompted my reactions...I sent you a note Bobsled..OK..I also say sorry to all here for this disruption...I am going to go lay down by my dish now.
2169. bappit
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No one's bashing anyone. This is a blog where we share our opinions and that's exactly what we're doing.

So now that we have the knee jerk HUH? out of the way, what might account for the intensity forecast?
Richard Pasch


He think Isaac will be a weak Cat.2
Quoting goldenpixie1:


So they're sending "The Shield" to NO? Hope his protection continues to work for them.


I call him "The Angel of Death." In the real world, his arrival is not seen as a good thing...quite the opposite. I am not happy that he is coming here, not at all.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Article posted late last year on MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45066867/ns/us_news-l ife/t/six-years-after-katrina-slow-progress-nation s-levees/#.UDqGSaPALbw


And there are serious engineering questions about the floodgate pumping systems put into place at the head of the drainage canals. The levees will likely hold for a Cat 1 but enough rain could cause substantial flooding because the city's historic capacity for pumping out rainwater will not be met (1 inch first house, including storage and a 1/2 in an hour after that).
Man if we had enough common sense in Louisiana we would cancel all schools and close non essential businesses in the NEWLY posted Hurricane Warning Area. That is yet to happen. There will be enough traffic as it is with people evacuating. It will take a good 48 hours to evacuate everyone, even with contraflow. The message is better to be overprepared, but then they say, "but we will wait and see what happens."
2174. Walshy
HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GULF COAST
2175. ITCZ
Quoting stormchaser19:
Richard Pasch


He think Isaac will be a weak Cat.2



Love to see faces for names i read alot--thanks!!! :)
Quoting bappit:

So now that we have the knee jerk HUH? out of the way, what might account for the intensity forecast?

Nothing. There is no reason it's so low.
2177. teammc
Can someone post the surface maps show the subtropical ridge and trough. Thank you
2178. Levi32
New blog is up by Angela.
So with no watches west of New Orleans is the NHC discounting the GPS Ensemble runs past New Orleans? I know the Europeans models were back over Mobile. I am fearing a Mississipi landfall just west of Mobile just east of NHC.
Quoting ITCZ:
Weather station at Key West, FL is reporting sustained winds of 63 mph. http://bit.ly/MUr9zT

.....this blog is kind of addictive isn't it?
It's very addictive. Wait until you find yourself up until 1 or 2 am, staring at the 00z model runs. Or maybe you are there already. If so dial 1 800 WUa ddict and admit your problem.
Quoting hurricanes20120:
nice tropical wave!!!
Looks like 98L on its way.
I am in Key West. This storm so far has not been as bad as some of the cold fronts we get in the winter. I would like to compare it to a thunderstorm, but there has been no thunder, and only an average amount of rain. It is kind of strange to be so close to the center, but so far from Miami where it seems to be much worse.
It will be an interesting week coming up with Isaac threatening Louisiana and a possible Leslie to keep an eye on here in Homestead. My shutters are staying up.

Link
2184. ITCZ
Quoting Clearwater1:
It's very addictive. Wait until you find yourself up until 1 or 2 am, staring at the 00z model runs. Or maybe you are there already. If so dial 1 800 WUa ddict and admit your problem.


I'm not ready to admit my prob--hey wait,WUa? Are you one of the operators standing by to "help"? :)
Quoting gator23:


I have been posting this for n hour now. The COC has stalled or is drifting north.

There looks like a couple mini vortices spinning around a mean center, didn't the NHC say the center is broad?
Quoting sar2401:


See what the 5 pm update brings. Remember, there's still a 1 in 3 chance the storm could at least affect you if you are outside the cone.


No, that's not quite true, otherwise there would be people in Seattle worried about a one-third probability of Isaac affecting them.

More precisely, there is, I believe, one chance in three of the circulation center or eye passing somewhere outside the cone. That's different from there being one chance in three of the storm affecting someone outside of the cone. The actual probability that someone outside of the cone being affected by the storm depends upon, among other things, (1) the definition of what "affecting" means, (2) the overall size of the storm, (3) the distance the person is outside of the cone, and (don't laugh) (3) the size of the earth -- in other words, it is related to the area of the earth outside of the two-thirds probability cone, the area covered by the storm itself, and whether you consider being able to look at impressive cirrus clouds as being "affected" by the storm.

The fact is, for smaller storms having paths that are hard to predict, there is probably less than one chance out of three that you would be affected by the storm even if you are inside the cone, even if the storm actually remained in the cone during its entire journey. Consider, hypothetically, the next storm headed this way from Africa, for example. At this point in time, the whole east coast of the United States from West Quoddy Head, Maine to Port Isabel, Texas might lie within the cone. But far fewer than two-thirds of the people within that cone would be affected, if anyone is at all.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looks like 98L on its way.
Yes, we may be going through this same thing at the beginning of Sept. I hope it turns out to sea RE 98L
Quoting ITCZ:


I'm not ready to admit my prob--hey wait,WUa? Are you one of the operators standing by to "help"? :)
LOL, no, way beyond help.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Richard Pasch


He think Isaac will be a weak Cat.2
He looks like the Hambergler from Mcdonald's...lol.
2190. amd
Quoting GTcooliebai:
There looks like a couple mini vortices spinning around a mean center, didn't the NHC say the center is broad?


Between the last two recon vortex messages, Isaac has traveled 0.30 degrees west, and actually lost -0.0167 degrees of latitude.

1st recon message:

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 18:46:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°01'N 81°43'W (24.0167N 81.7167W)

2nd recon message:

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 20:24:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°00'N 82°01'W (24.N 82.0167W)

To put it simply, I am not getting why people think that this storm is moving to the north.
Something is going on inner core wise. Isaac was looking much healthier earlier, and now the COC is looking ragged, and the feeders off to the NE are shrinking in size....
Quoting ITCZ:
Weather station at Key West, FL is reporting sustained winds of 63 mph. http://bit.ly/MUr9zT

.....this blog is kind of addictive isn't it?

Oh, we can quit anytime.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


What do you expect for us in St Pete/Tampa based on the most recent track?


It's hard to say, we won't get that much if we don't get more heating. Unless Isaac get's closer, we are too far away from Isaac for the storm to produce significant lift over the stabilized landmass. We may not get much at all until tomorrow when we get more heating in combination with deep tropical moisture. I think stronger thunderstorms will be possible near the coast with 45 to 55 mph gusts in heavy cells possible and maybe a spin-up tornado or two.
Quoting redwagon:

Oh, we can quit anytime.

Blah, ha, ha, ha!
Quoting brywalker:


Maybe, but the rest of the RNC will go on as scheduled while people are suffering or dying because of Isaac
Why do they always wait until the last week in August? That's like automatic hurricane season... Same thing happened in '08.
2196. Dakster
Now all eyes fall on the Gulf Coast as Isaac pulls away from the Florida Peninsula.

May he stumble on some shear and cold water to keep his intensity at bay.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
There looks like a couple mini vortices spinning around a mean center, didn't the NHC say the center is broad?
Is it possibe that one of these other vortex could consolidate into the main center, thus affecting the track?
2198. Dakster
Quoting BahaHurican:
Why do they always wait until the last week in August? That's like automatic hurricane season... Same thing happened in '08.


I don't think anyone ever accused politicians of being smart or compassionate...




CIMSS finally updated to 12 p.m.

Isaac is sprawled out.
2202. Dakster
That Texas high and drought has caused a forming or weak tropical storm to go *poof* as soon as it gets near it.

2203. dipchip
If Isaac were to steer a course of 300 from its 5 PM EST position at 15 knots it would be in Humble Texas in 52 hours or Tue 9 PM local time. Currently on course 295 / 15
I'm back. Car gassed, gas for generator and water is starting to fly off the shelves here in Lafayette. People are really taking notice - I was worried since it is a Sunday that they would be preoccupied with other things.
Quoting stormpetrol:


They say History repeats itself, though 7 years sames a bit too soon history wise. WE had Paloma in 2008 hit Cayman Brac 76 years to the date after it was devastated by the 1932 Hurricane( strange, weird and makes one wonder)


Shhhhh with that Paloma word
Quoting odinslightning:
i thought conditions were suppose to be more conducive to R.I. once it entered the gulf? and what the f**k is this dry air doing? how in the hell can there be this much dry air for this duration of time....you would think that Isaac would have moistened the air in the GoM/Caribbean over the past week.....??? does this have to do with the texas high that is causing all of the drought problems?

Wow...you seem disappointed we here on the northern gulf coast aren't going to meet sure death...thanks
Things here in the Lower Keys fortunately have been pretty much as forecast and hopefully it'll stay that way. Hurricane warnings are down but School closings have been extended through Tuesday.
Probably 35 gusting to 45 right now with light rain.
Quoting Dakster:
Now all eyes fall on the Gulf Coast as Isaac pulls away from the Florida Peninsula.

May he stumble on some shear and cold water to keep his intensity at bay.



Define cold?
;=)

Quoting violet312s:
Brawley CA another 5.4 quake a few mins ago.


A 5.4 quake in California is not, by itself, be really big news, although it might cause some minor damage locally and scare some people.

Since the LA Times is reporting that this is part of a "very active swarm" of earthquakes at the southern edge of the San Andreas fault, it might be worth putting this report into perspective for just a moment before rejoining the discussion of Isaac.

Swarms of earthquakes have occurred in or near Brawley in recent years, and the director of the USC-based Southern California Earthquake Center said that the significant seismic activity means that there is a "higher probability of having more seismic activity." What, exactly, does this mean?

If you want something really hard to predict and pin down, this is it. Everyone in Southern California knows that they are long overdue for "the big one," and this may (or may not, or perhaps could, or maybe couldn't, who knows?) be an indication that the San Andreas fault is finally becoming unstuck down there. And the "big one" may possibly (or not) occur during the landfall of Isaac.

Or maybe this last earthquake is on a fault completely unrelated to the San Andreas and means absolutely nothing.

Although it will happen sometime, I think it is unlikely that a large earthquake is going to happen in Southern California in the next few weeks, because the section of the San Andreas fault from the Salton Sea to San Bernardino hasn't ruptured since 1690.

So let's stay calm for now and concentrate on the more imminent dangers lurking in and near the Gulf of Mexico.
Old center gone, new one forming South and West of Key West.
There is a new blog everyone refresh your connection..
Quoting Dakster:
That Texas high and drought has caused a forming or weak tropical storm to go *poof* as soon as it gets near it.

Key word in this is forming Tropical Storm. If Isaac makes landfall in Texas (I doubt it) that will not affect him.
2213. A4Guy
Quoting odinslightning:
i thought conditions were suppose to be more conducive to R.I. once it entered the gulf? and what the f**k is this dry air doing? how in the hell can there be this much dry air for this duration of time....you would think that Isaac would have moistened the air in the GoM/Caribbean over the past week.....??? does this have to do with the texas high that is causing all of the drought problems?



sounds like you're disappointed. If you are seriously looking for RI or improving conditions, you clearly have not been through a hurricane.
Two bad things about the latest 18z gfs run.

1st nola hit and then it stalls Isaac for almost a day over the city.

2nd, 180 hrs out, another storm, over PR. Curves just before FL, but we all know that can change, one way or the other.

I'm a GFS believer, in final day tracks and early storm prediction. But that just me


But, one storm at a time. Good luck North gulf coast states.
Quoting Clearwater1:
Two bad things about the latest 18z gfs run.

1st nola hit and then it stalls Isaac for almost a day over the city.

2nd, 180 hrs out, another storm, over PR. Curves just before FL, but we all know that can change, one way or the other.

I'm a GFS believer, in final day tracks and early storm prediction. But that just me


But, one storm at a time. Good luck North gulf coast states.


Models over 120 hours shouldn't be considered more than a *possibility*. Of course, everyone seems to forget that between the last storm and the next storm. lol
And seven years ago ...almost to the day ...we were looking at this ...let's hope history does not repeat itself!!!
Bad in WPB all day!!!
We are getting the backside lots of rain but not much wind, hope that the interaction with us weaken him a bit I have family right across from mandaville LA and in Katrina we drove all thr way there not knowing if they were alive or dead. have a lot of friends Slidell, and NOLA. I would HATE for a repeat. Those folks really can't take that.

2219. Hhunter
2220. Hhunter
2221. Hhunter
2222. Hhunter
Looks like Isaac is stalling. The HH are going back toward the last center fix. I wonder how this will affect the models tonight?
2224. A4Guy
East-Central Broward...bad squall just moved through. One of the heaviest winds of the day.

New said we had 53 mph sustained winds near where I live..with gusts to 70. No tree branches down, though power has flickered a few times. PLEASE no power outage!!!!!!
How reliable is the GFDL model?
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