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Isaac bearing down on Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:40 PM GMT on August 24, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac has remained approximately level in intensity this afternoon. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured surface winds of 65 mph at 3:55 pm EDT, with winds at the aircraft's flight level of 5,000 feet of hurricane force, 80 mph. The surface pressure is falling, and is down to 994 mb. Tropical cyclones have a warm core, and the Hurricane Hunters typically find that a storm's lowest pressure is also where the warmest temperature are. That was not the case this morning, but is the case this afternoon. The Hurricane Hunters found a modest 4°C increase in temperature as they penetrated Isaac's core at 2:43 pm EDT (that difference fell to just 1°C by 3:55 pm, though.) A ship located about 100 miles southwest of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic measured sustained winds of 58 mph early this afternoon, and wind gusts of 46 mph have been measured on the south coast of the D.R. at Barahona this afternoon. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is starting to close off a center, and eyewall formation will likely begin early this evening. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow has improved considerably since this morning.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Isaac taken at 11:10 am EDT August 24, 2012. At the time, Isaac had top sustained winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs is similar in spread to the previous set of runs. Final landfall locations range from Alabama (ECMWF model) to the Florida Panhandle south of Tallahassee (GFS model.) It is possible that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north may not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and the ECMWF model indicates that Isaac could stall out after landfall, and spend several days over the Tennessee Valley.

Impact on South Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas
Residents of South Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas should not focus overly much of the exact track of the center of Isaac, because the storm's heaviest winds and rain will be spread out over a large area, and will not be focused near the core of the storm. Tropical storm-force winds currently extend outwards 185 miles to the right of Isaac's center, and will continue to extend outwards about this far as the storm passes by the Bahamas and South Florida. Heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches will be common along this swath. I recommend using the latest wind probability forecast from NHC to see your odds of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or higher.


Figure 2. Daily Oceanic Heat Content or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for Issac. The forecast points are from the 11 am EDT NHC advisory; the 24 hour forecast point shown here is for 8 am EDT Saturday, and the 72 hour forecast point is for 8 am Monday. For tropical cyclones in favorable environmental conditions for intensification (i.e., vertical wind shear less than 15 kt, mid-level relative humidity >50 %, and warm SSTs [i.e., >28.5C]) and with intensities less than 80kt, values of ocean heat content greater than 50 kJ/cm^2 (yellow and warmer colors) have been shown to promote greater rates of intensity change. Isaac will be in such a region when it is over water between its current location and the Florida Keys. Once Isaac goes beyond the Keys, total ocean heat content will fall to levels not as conducive for rapid intensification. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Intensity forecast for Isaac in the Gulf of Mexico
Isaac will likely be a 50 - 55 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba, but once the storm pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will likely intensify. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. If Isaac makes landfall near the tip of South Florida, as the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) runs of the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models are suggesting, the 24 hours it has over water before landfall will probably allow it to intensify by 15 - 20 mph. I think the storm is too large for it to increase its winds more than that in just 24 hours. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, though none of the models are currently calling for this to happen. The 5 pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac an 11% chance of becoming a Category 2 or 3 hurricane in the Gulf. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, I doubt we can get a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf in 2012.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Thursday has been designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. The 2 pm EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts that 97L will track west-northwest over the next few days, and now predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L. However, the storm will have trouble with dry air, and none of the reliable models currently foresee that 97L will develop over the next five days.

I'll have a new post sometime 10 am - 1pm Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Tazmanian:



wishcasting seem like your doing a little downcasting






do i here any fish caster in here yet??


Meekly Raises Hand :)
1002. jasblt
Quoting LargoFl:
yes here in florida..all florida..thats a very real danger alright

Have a lake in front of the house, there are storks, 10 at last count. Every one eating snakes. and not the garden variety grass snake. I think back to then, thinking that was a nightmare...seeing again now, I remember the flooding we had at the time, honestly hope it's not coming here.
Quoting Levi32:
Recon found the center drifted WSW again.


good news for Haiti?
Quoting 7544:
will they up the winds at 8pm or stick with 65mph
Up, possibly (maybe) a hurricane at 8.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
HWRF 90 hrs.



Georges.

Mid-grade cat 2 just off the coast.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
1007. HarryMc
Quoting hahaguy:


Well they are 93 and 90 so I can't change their ways lol.


My wife's mother is 91. Same. She keeps it so hot inside that I can't stay there over an hour or so... just saying....
Quoting AussieStorm:


So they will get the North east quadrant, which is always the worst part.

Doesnt make it any different in this case, either...
80 mph Flight level winds... Which will give the mountains a beating, as will as put the eastern bands of convection right over Hispanoila.
Convection has blown up every single night of Isaac's existence. With Isaac's center making just a glancing blow in Southern Haiti; tonight should be no different. Isaac's going to be stronger than a 65/70mph storm before he reaches Cuba imo. 80-90mph may not be out of the question.
Quoting captainmark:
I noticed gas went up 13 cents
today in New Orleans. Probably see significant jump
in the coming days.


Yeah i think about 3 days ago i mentioned that gas prices would likely be going up. ;-)
Quoting charlottefl:


I've seen it snow here once... Flurries Christmas Eve '89...
yep..in daytona too..had an ice storm in 90 also i believe,and my thermo stays at 74 too..lol..lost my air in the canes of 04..for almost a week..had to get battery operated fans to blow over bowls of ice..like in the golden olden days ..lol
1012. HarryMc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


If I'm not mistaken, the wind is quite a bit higher than forecast this morning??

000
WTNT34 KNHC 242342
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* ANDROS ISLAND
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH
* FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A FASTER FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD
MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT...
AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES
HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS JAMAICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ARE
EXPECTED OVER ANDROS ISLAND BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY...AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting Wunderwood:
OMG! Now we've got the westcasters chiming in here. Any SW movement is most likely reorganization and I seriously doubt we will see a major west shift in the models.
I would've permabanned you. ;)
Keeps..that may squeeze through the Windward Passage. Maybe..IMO...Perhaps...A chance...Have I covered all the bases?
1016. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:
Recon found the center drifted WSW again.
What you think is causing the center to stalled like that?
1017. LargoFl
Quoting jasblt:

Have a lake in front of the house, there are storks, 10 at last count. Every one eating snakes. and not the garden variety grass snake. I think back to then, thinking that was a nightmare...seeing again now, I remember the flooding we had at the time, honestly hope it's not coming here.
yeah we have some storksd at the lake near me too..good to know thanks
1018. JasonRE
Ok, so is LA now officially out of the cone now?
Quoting Levi32:
Recon found the center drifted WSW again.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


there is no indication of a SW movement and if there was, it would likely be due to land friction and not a reformation of the center
Lol.
1020. 7544
hmmm 992mb now maybe upgrade at 11pm imo
1021. bixms
Did it just take a SW jog?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


I hope that's wrong/corrects itself.

That would correspond to a 50% increase in rainfall total.


This is really going to suck to watch the news in a day or two...
1023. jasblt
Quoting padirescu:


Oh boy, here we go with the "Ants are headed north, time to batten down the hatches" comments. :-)

Nah...Never put much faith in the ant thing...snakes though..diff. story. Hope I didn't start anything with the ant deal, just a observation, something I haven't seen but twice living on the coast for 48 years.
More importantly, Stewart will be writing the advisory package this evening. :))))))
1025. LargoFl
the most modern hurricane equipment money can buy?
Quoting RTSplayer:


Georges.

Mid-grade cat 2 just off the coast.

Good analog if that ridge stays strong enough and the trough is weaker, I could see it taking that track.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol.


read my 2nd part before you laugh, if it did, its due to land friction more-so than steering
HH has confirmed SW-WSW movement on 5th pass I would like to see them make a 6th pass to make sure
Stewart gets the 11 pm EDT advisory package, awesome.
UGH! 17 grandkids all within the Tampa bay area! What should I do?
Quoting JasonRE:
Ok, so is LA now officially out of the cone now?


NO!
Quoting Hurricanes101:


read my 2nd part before you laugh, if it did, its due to land friction more-so than steering
You said there was no evidence of any movement is a SW direction. There has been for quite some time.(Last 2 passes)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
More importantly, Stewart will be writing the advisory package this evening. :))))))

Dang it, Miami.
I think Isaac has a troll inside of it....keeps the storm changing directions to mess with us....LOL!
1035. WxLogic
If it keeps stalling... steering patterns will change and new possibilities could open up.
1036. JasonRE
Ok, these so called 'westcasters', where are they getting their information? The most up to date EURO? Also, where can I see the most current EURO models?
its moving NW read the 8pm adv
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
More importantly, Stewart will be writing the advisory package this evening. :))))))

Oh boy! I can't wait. :)
Quoting JasonRE:
Ok, so is LA now officially out of the cone now?


Yes, Los Angeles is safe.
1041. yoboi
Quoting captainmark:
I noticed gas went up 13 cents
today in New Orleans. Probably see significant jump
in the coming days.



when they do that makes me want to spray a gallon of gas into eyes of the person who made that decision to gigg people in a time of need....
1042. Levi32
Quoting Gearsts:
What you think is causing the center to stalled like that?


Probably just organizational changes, not actually a response to steering. Either that, or the mountains are starting to affect it in weird ways.
It's jogging wsw because of land friction and the fact that it is bumping up against the ridge. It will resume NW soon.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You said there was no evidence of any movement is a SW direction. There has been for quite some time.


guess no one is allowed to be wrong on here, god forbid, because someone is ready to jump on them

either way the NHC still says NW regardless of what recon is showing....and they will stay with NW because that is still the long term motion


Isaac NW , now WSW , weird dude! Its Recon fixes, not me!
Issac's structure keeps improving. Slowing down for a moment to fasten his seatbelts before the next intersection.
GFDL westward also



HOUR: .0 LONG: -71.51 LAT: 16.86 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.25
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -72.46 LAT: 17.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.90
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -74.00 LAT: 18.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.52 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.76
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -74.80 LAT: 19.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.69
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -76.04 LAT: 21.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.56
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 22.09 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.82
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -78.80 LAT: 22.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.37
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -79.96 LAT: 23.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.09 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.20
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -81.12 LAT: 25.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.07
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -82.33 LAT: 25.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.12 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.01
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -83.61 LAT: 26.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.18
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -84.91 LAT: 27.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.53
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -85.98 LAT: 27.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.16
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -86.76 LAT: 28.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.07
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -87.61 LAT: 29.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.71
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -88.06 LAT: 29.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.02
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -88.56 LAT: 30.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.06
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -88.59 LAT: 30.71 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.49
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -88.68 LAT: 31.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.02 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.17
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -88.35 LAT: 31.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.37
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -87.76 LAT: 32.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.33
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -86.96 LAT: 32.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.30
Quoting chrisdscane:
its moving NW read the 8pm adv


I think a lot of people get fixated on short term jogs, which can sometimes be important, but you still have to average them out over at least a couple of hours to get a true motion. The geography of Haiti is causing it to move in less than perfect linear fashion..
Looking at WV loop, is the trough or dip over Florida stalling out and retreating? yesterday that thing was digging down deep into the GOM and Florida, it Isaac slows down too much this thing passes by and.....
1051. Dakster
Quoting jasblt:

Nah...Never put much faith in the ant thing...snakes though..diff. story. Hope I didn't start anything with the ant deal, just a observation, something I haven't seen but twice living on the coast for 48 years.


Are you in Tampa?
Quoting charlottefl:


I think a lot of people get fixated on short term jogs, which can sometimes be important, but you still have to average them out over at least a couple of hours to get a true motion. The geography of Haiti is causing it to move in less than perfect linear fashion..


exactly
Isaac slowing down. Thoughts?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

NW to Haiti crosses it bent back SW passes S of Jamaica inbetween Grand Cayman and its sister islands hit W cuba and in GOM landfall in LA





Did you enjoy it?
To me it looks like the Dominican Republic is cutting off the east side flow giving the west side a chance to absorb some of the energy from the in close east side and the north side of the storm allowing the storm for a moment to behave like a small storm and get organized. This is not good news, if the storm does not penetrate to deeply into Cuba.I posted a satellite view earlier of the gulf which the blog ate, showed to me in the water vapor a deep penetration by a trough. I don't see how this system can get past this. Especially since it appears to be getting reinforced from the low that was in the 4 corners yesterday headed east.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Doesnt make it any different in this case, either...
80 mph Flight level winds... Which will give the mountains a beating, as will as put the eastern bands of convection right over Hispanoila.


The mountains will also have a harder time disrupting those 80mph flight level winds. There are only a couple peaks up that high if I am not mistaken.

The jumping around we are seeing right now...interaction with the mountains causing it?
1057. airmet3
Quoting Gearsts:
What you think is causing the center to stalled like that?

Weebles Wobble?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Stewart gets the 11 pm EDT advisory package, awesome.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
More importantly, Stewart will be writing the advisory package this evening. :))))))

I like how we love Stewart more than anyone else... :)

If the western half of the Eyewall can close off... We could see this become a borderline Hurricane right at landfall.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
HH has confirmed SW-WSW movement on 5th pass I would like to see them make a 6th pass to make sure


If that's the case it will be interesting to see what happens when these get updated in about 45minutes.

990mb steering:



970mb:



How much wiggle room are we dealing with here?

A 10mph slow down is going to totally screw up all of the timing severely if it maintains for more than a few hours...
Quoting Hurricanes101:


guess no one is allowed to be wrong on here, god forbid, because someone is ready to jump on them

either way the NHC still says NW regardless of what recon is showing....and they will stay with NW because that is still the long term motion
I was correcting you not insulting you. I never said it was going to change track because of the drift. You were correcting someone with not 100% accurate information. I just made my point.
Evening nrti. So the upper air data is going in the 00z's again correct?
Quoting Mamasteph:
yep..in daytona too..had an ice storm in 90 also i believe,and my thermo stays at 74 too..lol..lost my air in the canes of 04..for almost a week..had to get battery operated fans to blow over bowls of ice..like in the golden olden days ..lol

Obviously you had elerctricity... LOL! We were living in Satellite Beach then and were without power for 9 days after Frances, got it back then Jeanne took it for 4 days... no fans, no ice just FL heat and humidity (and a boarded up house... aaaaargh!). Lotsa barbeque... :-)
1063. centex
Quoting Levi32:
Recon found the center drifted WSW again.
They will ignore that on next official position, like they did late last night.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I was correcting you not insulting you. I never said it was going to change track because of the drift. You were correcting someone with not 100% accurate information. I just made my point.


actually no, the storm wobbled WSW, but overall movement is still NW as the NHC states at 8pm, so I was not wrong
Bolaven is now forecasted to peak as a 155mph super typhoon. Only 1mph from a category 5.
Im no expert by any means but I noticed on the latest GFS n HWRF runs that afetr he enters the gulf he bends back westward??? Is that the high of east coast building back in?? So theres no tellin where he may decide to hit on gulf coast?
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening nrti. So the upper air data is going in the 00z's again correct?


Yep, about 10 dropsondes went into the 18Z
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dang it, Miami.
LOL, I see the blog is quite fond of Stacy Stewart also. :)))

His 4 paragraph discussions>>>
75°

@ Geoff... TYVM, friend.

Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yeah the GFS is still on the easterly path early on but nudged further west on final landfall, definitely.
Hey, pal.... howareya?

Quoting Hurrihistory:
If Isaac can clear the North Coast of Cuba quick enough, it would have plenty of time to reach cat.-1 or even cat.-2 level Hurricane power and strike the Middle or Upper Florida Keys. Look out South Florida! Remember the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was just a tropical storm when it was in the NorthWest Bahamas grew into a 190-MPH Hurricane when it hit the middle Keys 48 hours later.
Rita was another recent example of rapid intensification in that area.

Quoting congaline:
I'm tired of calling Isaac a tropical storm. I think it's time to update his status to hurricane!
Nah... TS Isaac is just alright with me... lol

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yes really no joke and no wishcasting at all I am being straight up also That could explane why on sattelite it now looks like its moving more W and RECON data finds LLCOC SW of last position


maybe yeah it should
The low,mid and high level steering winds have been blowing at different directions most of this storms existence.The mid-level was blowing wsw while the low was headingw to wnw.Like that one picture that was posted today of a previous storm ,the mid-level circulation could have sheared itself away if the steering winds were stronger.This also probably accounts for the continual mis-alignment of the cocs,including now.
Quoting Levi32:


Probably just organizational changes, not actually a response to steering. Either that, or the mountains are starting to affect it in weird ways.
...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...
8:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 24
Location: 17.3°N 72.0°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Looks like it's moving right on tropical forecast points, NW at 10 mph. It's slowed down which may allow it to get it's act together a little more. The pressure dropped another MB and the winds stayed the same so it's definitely not weakening.
1074. CCkid00
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

NW to Haiti crosses it bent back SW passes S of Jamaica inbetween Grand Cayman and its sister islands hit W cuba and in GOM landfall in LA




i posted earlier how eerily similar the "projected path" is to that of Gustav's "projected path." Gustav didn't go there. instead, he hooked SW off of the westernmost part of Haiti and ended up going south of Jamaica and clipping the westernmost part of Cuba, before an eventual landfall in Louisiana.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


actually no, the storm wobbled WSW, but overall movement is still NW as the NHC states at 8pm, so I was not wrong
Ok I specifically stated it was just a SW drift. You are wrong saying there is no evidence in a SW movement. There is currently a WSW drift occurring. If you look at recon.
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:

Obviously you had elerctricity... LOL! We were living in Satellite Beach then and were without power for 9 days after Frances, got it back then Jeanne took it for 4 days... no fans, no ice just FL heat and humidity (and a boarded up house... aaaaargh!). Lotsa barbeque... :-)
No electric..I have battery operated fans..ice came from the the gov't!!Old Jeb himself was handing out bags at the speedway in daytona...groc stores were operating for dry goods only..no generators for the the frigerated stuff...didn't brevard county hand out ice and water to you guys?Volusia did..
Quoting BahaHurican:
75°

@ Geoff... TYVM, friend.

Hey, pal.... howareya?

Rita was another recent example of rapid intensification in that area.

Nah... TS Isaac is just alright with me... lol



Good Baha, how about you? Made early prep for TS conditions but we'll see if Isaac decides to be a right side hugger...
Just thought of a perfect example. If you spin a top across the room, you can get it to stay pretty steady until it slows down. But if you spin it and it bumps something what happens? It wobbles around, same thing here, it's temporary due to the friction from the mountains...
Joyce could regenerate.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 242344
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU
PRINCE HAITI.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JOYCE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE
REMNANT LOW TO REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting Levi32:


That is farther west than the ECMWF.


Are you seeing that kind of setup Levi? Similar to the 1900 Galveston storm except not that extreme of course where this could turn back WNW into the gulf
Quoting CCkid00:

i posted earlier how eerily similar the "projected path" is to that of Gustav's "projected path." Gustav didn't go there. instead, he hooked SW off of the westernmost part of Haiti and ended up going south of Jamaica and clipping the westernmost part of Cuba, before an eventual landfall in Louisiana.
He also passed right between Grand Cayman and Cayman Brac.
Convection is by no means impressive though; needs to work on that.

1083. Levi32
Western side showing 50+ kt winds for the first time:

1084. Thrawst
.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GFDL westward also



HOUR: .0 LONG: -71.51 LAT: 16.86 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.25
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -72.46 LAT: 17.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.90
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -74.00 LAT: 18.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.52 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.76
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -74.80 LAT: 19.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.69
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -76.04 LAT: 21.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.56
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 22.09 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.82
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -78.80 LAT: 22.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.37
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -79.96 LAT: 23.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.09 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.20
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -81.12 LAT: 25.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.07
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -82.33 LAT: 25.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.12 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.01
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -83.61 LAT: 26.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.18
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -84.91 LAT: 27.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.53
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -85.98 LAT: 27.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.16
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -86.76 LAT: 28.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.07
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -87.61 LAT: 29.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.71
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -88.06 LAT: 29.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.02
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -88.56 LAT: 30.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.06
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -88.59 LAT: 30.71 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.49
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -88.68 LAT: 31.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.02 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.17
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -88.35 LAT: 31.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.37
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -87.76 LAT: 32.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.33
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -86.96 LAT: 32.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.30


That's a mobile bay landfall...

Cat 2 pressure, but strong Cat 1 winds...I think...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convection is by no means impressive though; needs to work on that.



Better than earlier though...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convection is by no means impressive though; needs to work on that.



Beginning one of it's nightly routines... firing up intense convection.
so being in NE Florida does it seem we will have much from this down the road?
1090. yoboi
Quoting stormhank:
Im no expert by any means but I noticed on the latest GFS n HWRF runs that afetr he enters the gulf he bends back westward??? Is that the high of east coast building back in?? So theres no tellin where he may decide to hit on gulf coast?


bingo
Quoting tropicfreak:
Joyce could regenerate.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 242344
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU
PRINCE HAITI.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JOYCE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE
REMNANT LOW TO REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

LOL. would we all Re-Joyce if Joyce came back to life???? Helene got up to 30%????
Quoting Levi32:
Western side showing 50+ kt winds for the first time:


Isaac has definately done some decent organizing and strengthening today.


Say goodnight to Isaac...
How long until Isaac is projected to make landfall in Haiti? Two or three hours from now?
Quoting charlottefl:
Just thought of a perfect example. If you spin a top across the room, you can get it to stay pretty steady until it slows down. But if you spin it and it bumps something what happens? It wobbles around, same thing here, it's temporary due to the friction from the mountains...


I thought Isaac was going to avoid the highest topography of Hispaniola? Or are you just referring to what mountains it will pass over?
1095. Buhdog
Quoting StormJunkie:


I find it funny when people view the blog this way because it is a bit naive. The fact is that 1 year ago there were people on the blog that added value, there were comedians, there were wishcasters, there were those that bickered, and there were even professional mets. The year before that, same thing. And the year before that? Same thing...


And guess what we have this year? The EXACT same thing. Simply because the comedian, wishcaster, bickerer, and pro met may be different people from last year or the year before, or the year it was the best ever...People some how think that it makes it a less beneficial community.

So anywho...There is always a wide set of views and information here. Feel free to enjoy it if you want, or feel free to sit around wishing nothing ever changed a little.


Amen sist

as an old timer...I feel the same way SJ. I praise the ones who have made the long journey through the history of this blog. I came here to this site in 2004 to learn more about Charley as it was coming toward us. Now as a new storm comes my way, I can proudly say I still don't know crap. :)

HH are going for 6th pass

Quoting RTSplayer:


If that's the case it will be interesting to see what happens when these get updated in about 45minutes.

990mb steering:



970mb:



How much wiggle room are we dealing with here?

A 10mph slow down is going to totally screw up all of the timing severely if it maintains for more than a few hours...


yes it will in interesting if that W side of the ridge contiunes to build could cause weakness to be less on Isaac this could mean it passes S of cuba

with a slow down like that it could very well make it pass S of cuba



hmm sorry NHC HH says it is moving SW-WSW not NW
slowdown yeah I agree with that
location 17.3 HH says you are off by 0.3

lets see what HH 6th pass will show
Hmm, everything looks about exactly the same as when I started reading the blog at 4:30 this morning. Am I missing anything?
Quoting Levi32:
Western side showing 50+ kt winds for the first time:

Going for another center fix I assume? Interested to see if these wobbles are persisting...and what's up in the northeast quad.
Don't laugh but I saw ants looking for high ground today a little west of New Orleans Airport. Was that a sign of Santore coming here. Arrrgg.
1100. yoboi
debby had models going to texas hit fla....imagine isaac suppose to hitt fla hitts texas.....that would be a season to remember.....
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I thought Isaac was going to avoid the highest topography of Hispaniola? Or are you just referring to what mountains it will pass over?


Yeah but he's still bumping up against them, it still temporarily affects the track...

EDIT: When I say he, I mean the circulation...
1102. bixms
For those who may not have experienced a hurricane and are hoping it comes your way just for the sake of a life experience...the aftermath sucks! Cool to watch, but dealing with the outcome of a direct hit or close.... You live like a caveman for a while and it is not fun. Been through plenty, and I'd prefer no more. Be careful what you wish for..,,
Quoting weatherxtreme:
so being in NE Florida does it seem we will have much from this down the road?
I personally think that the jury is still out on that.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convection is by no means impressive though; needs to work on that.



Isaac always had that problem, needs a big blue pill.
Quoting charlottefl:


Yeah but he's still bumping up against them, it still temporarily affects the track...


You chasing any of this? Let me know if you plan to.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
HH are going for 6th pass



yes it will in interesting if that W side of the ridge contiunes to build could cause weakness to be less on Isaac this could mean it passes S of cuba

with a slow down like that it could very well make it pass S of cuba



hmm sorry NHC HH says it is moving SW-WSW not NW
slowdown yeah I agree with that
location 17.3 HH says you are off by 0.3

lets see what HH 6th pass will show


They didn't have enough time for them to get it across to the advisory. And this WSW movement is very brief, look at how slow it's moving.

And no offense, but you really need to work on punctuation skills.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Did you enjoy it?

nope

If anyone had to guess wouldnt u say mobile would be the bullseye when u pick a center point?? Im possible now though to nail down a path considering how isaacs behavior has been lol
Developing Eyewall evident...
Edit: Zoom in on Center.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I like how we love Stewart more than anyone else... :)

If the western half of the Eyewall can close off... We could see this become a borderline Hurricane right at landfall.
How do you know Stewart will be the one do they have a schedule or something?
Channel 10 in Tampa WTSP caught the end of it... up to a 6 foot storm surge near downtown Tampa with a CAT 1 coming up the coast... if it gets close... right where the RNC is going to go on ... which I think it 4 feet above da water...

I am a bit drunk so maybe I am just imagining this... since most stations here in Tampa are discounting that anything will happen here :-D
1112. LargoFl
Quoting popartpete:
I personally think that the jury is still out on that.
refer to your local NWS for your local warnings
Hey all...on vacation with friends in the St Louis area...scheduled to fly home Sunday night at 8:00 to Ft. Lauderdale. Latest models and cone are leading me to believe I don't need to fly home early to put up shutters. Any opinions wuld be helpful. :-) (I've posted before and look at my joined date...not a troll. Sad I even need to point that out bu trolls are running rampant.)
1114. Dakster
Quoting bixms:
For those who may not have experienced a hurricane and are hoping it comes your way just for the sake of a life experience...the aftermath sucks! Cool to watch, but dealing with the outcome of a direct hit or close.... You live like a caveman for a while and it is not fun. Been through plenty, and I'd prefer no more. Be careful what you wish for..,,


You need to bold that, put it in quotes, and knock up the font size to about 48.
Quoting Buhdog:


Amen sist

as an old timer...I feel the same way SJ. I praise the ones who have made the long journey through the history of this blog. I came here to this site in 2004 to learn more about Charley as it was coming toward us. Now as a new storm comes my way, I can proudly say I still don't know crap. :)

OMG lol! Guess we are slow learners or too afraid to say we think...such a fine line after Charley!
Quoting allancalderini:
How do you know Stewart will be the one do they have a schedule or something?

Stewart did the 8 pm EDT intermediate advisory, which means he'll be the one to do the 11 pm EDT complete package.

Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf, here we go. Lol.
Levi…Are you seeing anything now that may alter your Isaac track for tomorrow’s Tidbit?
Quoting tropicfreak:


They didn't have enough time for them to get it across to the advisory. And this WSW movement is very brief, look at how slow it's moving.

And no offense, but you really need to work on punctuation skills.


if it was brief why is it still moving that way

sorry about that I was speed typing I'll try to work on it
Quoting AussieStorm:


Isaac always had that problem, needs a big blue pill.
...or the little blue pill if he's getting old. Either will work. ;)
Quoting interstatelover7165:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 242342
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* ANDROS ISLAND
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH
* FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A FASTER FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD
MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT...
AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES
HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS JAMAICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ARE
EXPECTED OVER ANDROS ISLAND BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY...AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


How can they say NW at 10,when he is going SW at 5?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stewart did the 8 pm EDT intermediate advisory, which means he'll be the one to do the 11 pm EDT complete package.

Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf, here we go. Lol.

+10
You know that is why the NHC gets criticized , they finally had to drop this 16.1 N this morning, down to 15.4 or 5, now they will probably have to drop the 17.3N again, they just same to refuse to go by anything other than model consensus , if they are going to continue like this and even ignore Recon data, they might as well don't send them out and stick with the models, sorry ... the NHC forecast usually pan out, but just sayin....
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

nope

LOL absolutely no one here believes that wunderkidcayman. Your always thinking outside the box though. Someone posted their own map of a path similar to that earlier today with all kinds of details and tidbits and got pluses galore. You don't annoy me, bemused yes. Keep on keeping on.
1124. Bielle
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yes, Los Angeles is safe.

:)
1125. yoboi
Quoting 1million:
Channel 10 in Tampa WTSP caught the end of it... up to a 6 foot storm surge near downtown Tampa with a CAT 1 coming up the coast... if it gets close... right where the RNC is going to go on ... which I think it 4 feet above da water...

I am a bit drunk so maybe I am just imagining this... since most stations here in Tampa are discounting that anything will happen here :-D
Quoting 1million:
Channel 10 in Tampa WTSP caught the end of it... up to a 6 foot storm surge near downtown Tampa with a CAT 1 coming up the coast... if it gets close... right where the RNC is going to go on ... which I think it 4 feet above da water...

I am a bit drunk so maybe I am just imagining this... since most stations here in Tampa are discounting that anything will happen here :-D


hang in there buddy....
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


How can they say NW at 10,when he is going SW at 5?

Because the SW jog is a short term movement.
18z GFDL..

1128. LargoFl
riday, Aug. 24, 2012 5:35 p.m.
Tropical Storm Isaac is now located about 165 miles SSW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, and it has strengthened a bit, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. A turn to the W-NW is expected later today, with a continued northwest motion expected through Sunday.

Based on the current track, Isaac is projected to be is 100 miles W of the coast on Monday and Tuesday. We are expecting potential impacts to much of SW and W central Florida, including minor coastal flooding, tornados, and heavy periodic rains. The Tampa Bay area remains in the five day cone of uncertainty, and tropical watches and warning are expected later today for Key West and southern Florida. No tropical watches or warnings have been issued for the Tampa Bay area.

The UT EOT will continue to monitor and update throughout the weekend.
Quoting 1million:
Channel 10 in Tampa WTSP caught the end of it... up to a 6 foot storm surge near downtown Tampa with a CAT 1 coming up the coast... if it gets close... right where the RNC is going to go on ... which I think it 4 feet above da water...

I am a bit drunk so maybe I am just imagining this... since most stations here in Tampa are discounting that anything will happen here :-D


The convention centre is @6ft, Media centre is at only 4ft.
Quoting charlottefl:


I think a lot of people get fixated on short term jogs, which can sometimes be important, but you still have to average them out over at least a couple of hours to get a true motion. The geography of Haiti is causing it to move in less than perfect linear fashion..



Good point. And those wobbles can be particularly critical to the people in Haiti, in this case possibly keeping the storm over water allowing to strengthen or bringing the strongest winds in the right front quadrant closer to Port au Prince.
Look how strong and organized the storms over the Bahamas have become!

This is ridiculous, and that's just one band...they're like that all the way down the coast of Cuba now...

Miami Radar

The whole region is lit up with marine warnings (or would be if it was U.S. territories).

Looking at Isaac on IR. It appears Convection is going to fire right over the center and Isaac is going to ditch the bands to the East and retart convection on it's own.
Quoting stormpetrol:
You know that is why the NHC gets criticized , they finally had to drop this 16.1 N this morning, down to 15.4 or 5, now they will probably have to drop the 17.3N again, they just same to refuse to go by anything other than model consensus , if they are going to continue like this and even ignore Recon data, they might as well don't send them out and stick with the models, sorry ... the NHC forecast usually pan out, but just sayin....

Reconaissance dissonance.....
Quoting hurricane23:
18z GFDL..

You prepping yet Adrian?

...because I'm not lolol.
1135. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Levi…Are you seeing anything now that may alter your Isaac track for tomorrow’s Tidbit?


Like yesterday, I want to see the 00z and 06z model runs which will have G-IV data in them again. As Isaac starts getting across Haiti and Cuba the track should start getting pretty pinned down, whether adjustments have to be made or not.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...or the little blue pill if he's getting old. Either will work. ;)

Well a little blue pill might not help cause of Isaac's size. Hence why I said big blue pill. lol
Isaac looks like a hot mess in terms of convection.It has improved in structure.
WNW movement is resuming with Isaac.
I'm telling you sometimes they bounce off islands.
last sunset shot of Isaac shows center finally getting its act together.

I still believe it can completely miss Haiti altogether and head closer to Jamaica as it continues to organize/strengthen

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flas h-vis-long.html

Link

he is gonna start wrapping a lot of moisture and finally end the problem with remaining SAL dry air....
1141. Levi32
Well 18z GFS ensemble guidance is just missing from the plotting sites at the moment. Only the operational is showing up.

Quoting hurricane23:
18z GFDL..



Adrian, what are your thoughts on the early part of Isacc's forecast?
Finaly the broad LLC is tighting up. Ivan is very close to be a Hurricane with the po tencial to be a Major. I see a more WNW movement in the short term throug the sout of East Cuba.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


How can they say NW at 10,when he is going SW at 5?


A slight re-position of a center fix does not necessarily mean a direction change.

The fix has a margin of error of several miles, because they can't be sure they've "literally" found the lowest pressure in the CoC just because one reading was lower than another.


It's only a legit direction change if it reflects motion outside the original margin of error.
1145. LargoFl
..........dont look at the black dot..if you are in the white zone..your in danger
Not at the center quite yet.

001200 1717N 07203W 8422 01448 9939 +180 +180 045006 016 029 006 01
WNW movement for the next hour or two followed by the NW movement is likely
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well a little blue pill might not help cause of Isaac's size. Hence why I said big blue pill. lol
LMAOOO, you don't understand how hard I'm laughing over here. :))))
Quoting bixms:
For those who may not have experienced a hurricane and are hoping it comes your way just for the sake of a life experience...the aftermath sucks! Cool to watch, but dealing with the outcome of a direct hit or close.... You live like a caveman for a while and it is not fun. Been through plenty, and I'd prefer no more. Be careful what you wish for..,,


I couldn't agree more!! went through Alan in 1980, Gilbert in 1988 and Ivan in 2004 here in Grand Cayman had no power for 3 1/2 months at my house after Ivan. We got it back just before Christmas! Tropical storms bring em on but no more majors that was brutal!
Quoting prweatherwatcher:
Finaly the broad LLC is tighting up. Ivan is very close to be a Hurricane with the po tencial to be a Major. I see a more WNW movement in the short term throug the sout of East Cuba.

Isaac?
Ivan has been retired for 8 years... and It has the "potential" to become a major, but not until it reaches the Eastern gulf.
Quoting Levi32:


Like yesterday, I want to see the 00z and 06z model runs which will have G-IV data in them again. As Isaac starts getting across Haiti and Cuba the track should start getting pretty pinned down, whether adjustments have to be made or not.


Thank you bud.
1152. Levi32
They're looking really hard lol.

1153. jasblt
Quoting Dakster:


Are you in Tampa?

Lauderdale
1154. yoboi
when this storm hitts the US should be close to full moon, tides will already be running about 1 foot above normal levels.....
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
WNW movement is resuming with Isaac.

Recon has already passed the point, to where new center fix is NW of the last one.
Wonder if this western movement has to do with the angle of attack against the mountains? Deflecting instead of being forced to go over.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because the SW jog is a short term movement.


We hope!
Quoting Levi32:
They're looking really hard lol.


LOL
Quoting Levi32:
They're looking really hard lol.


Would you prefer then to just fly the normal flight paths or do a more investigative flight?
Quoting stormpetrol:
You know that is why the NHC gets criticized , they finally had to drop this 16.1 N this morning, down to 15.4 or 5, now they will probably have to drop the 17.3N again, they just same to refuse to go by anything other than model consensus , if they are going to continue like this and even ignore Recon data, they might as well don't send them out and stick with the models, sorry ... the NHC forecast usually pan out, but just sayin....


We understand what's going on because we watch the weather all the time.

I think NHC is just trying not to confuse the general public, so they attempt to "smooth over" these discrepancies.

If they made official statements on every re-location it would confuse a lot of those people who only watch the weather once in a while, and some of them might make bad choices about what they should be doing in preparation because of it.
Quoting cajunkid:
I'm telling you sometimes they bounce off islands.


where is it going to bounce?
Quoting Tribucanes:
LOL absolutely no one here believes that wunderkidcayman. Your always thinking outside the box though. Someone posted their own map of a path similar to that earlier today with all kinds of details and tidbits and got pluses galore. You don't annoy me, bemused yes. Keep on keeping on.


nope I did not like it at all Gustav Paloma and Ivan the top three I did not like



ok guys what if that short term movement become longer than short term then what...

1163. Dakster
Quoting jasblt:

Lauderdale


Wow and the snakes are going crazy there?

I checked my yard and I don't have any... South Dade here..
Deepening major hurricane on the 18z GFDL.

I live in west palm beach. I am flying out of town on Sunday morning. Should I shutter my home before I leave?
Quoting cajunkid:
I'm telling you sometimes they bounce off islands.
Have heard Bastardi say that over the years. There may be some truth to it when topographic elevation is involved. Over flat land, maybe since like when hand-gliding updrafts are usually over land during the daytime. Experts, please correct my assumptions if they are very wrong or just a little or let me know if I'm on to something. It is curious how these system sometimes appear to bounce around land.
1167. Dakster
Quoting Levi32:
They're looking really hard lol.



Did they take the little blue pill instead?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You prepping yet Adrian?

...because I'm not lolol.


You know regardless whether this goes on the east or west coast of florida we are going to get some weather from it. Heavy rainfall is a good bet along with a tornado threat. Winds are still up in the air. Was told from friend here at the WFO miami the TS warnings are a good bet tommorow late morning.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Deepening major hurricane on the 18z GFDL.


Eh... Not a Major Hurricane... More like Borderline Category 2/3 ;)
We may get 60 to 65MPH at this time
Quoting gregcowd:
I live in west palm beach. I am flying out of town on Sunday morning. Should I shutter my home before I leave?
Why can't they find the center? Is it gone? We talking about the LLC right?
Finally found center. LOL

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
993mb (29.32 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 180° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
1000mb -64m (-210 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 625m (2,051 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 215° (from the SW) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 1,361m (4,465 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 245° (from the WSW) 3 knots (3 mph)
1174. GetReal
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Wonder if this western movement has to do with the angle of attack against the mountains? Deflecting instead of being forced to go over.



I have seen this happen more than a few times with these type systems....
So I am expecting another windshield wiper with the models again tomorrow. For the second day in a row, morning was eastern bias, evening was western bias. G-IV data will definitely help, especially the data south of the storm, but still gonna be uncertain until it clears Haiti and Cuba.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


nope I did not like it at all Gustav Paloma and Ivan the top three I did not like



ok guys what if that short term movement become longer than short term then what...



Then it hits San Jose Costa Rica
This is the night I actually stay up for the 0Z GFS!..LOL
Quoting cajunkid:
I'm telling you sometimes they bounce off islands.


Yes, but Isaac is supposed to be too weak to do that.

Not discounting the claim, because I wrote a big paragraph about it a few days ago.

Still, a solid rebound effect here would be pretty significant for track later on.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Wonder if this western movement has to do with the angle of attack against the mountains? Deflecting instead of being forced to go over.

It's on track history that Isaac took a dive south rather than take on the DR head-on. The guy does not like landmass.
1180. Dakster
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Wow 12" of rain in SFLA...
1181. yoboi
i just heard on twc they will not evacuate the keys unless a cat 3 that's crazy, i would hate to see an ike hitt there or rita or wilma....
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Finally found center. LOL

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
993mb (29.32 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.4C (79.5F) 26.4C (79.5F) 180 (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
1000mb -64m (-210 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 625m (2,051 ft) 22.8C (73.0F) 22.8C (73.0F) 215 (from the SW) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 1,361m (4,465 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 245 (from the WSW) 3 knots (3 mph)


location was 17.3N 72.0W
1183. LargoFl
Quoting hurricane23:


You know regardless whether this goes on the east or west coast of florida we are going to get some weather from it. Heavy rainfall is a good bet along with a tornado threat. Winds are still up in the air. Was told from friend here at the WFO miami the TS warnings are a good bet tommorow late morning.


Extending into Broward and Palm Beach?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Finally found center. LOL

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
993mb (29.32 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 180° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
1000mb -64m (-210 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 625m (2,051 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 215° (from the SW) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 1,361m (4,465 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 245° (from the WSW) 3 knots (3 mph)


Isn't that closed pretty weak?
Is the 00Z going to have the G-IV data
Quoting GetReal:



I have seen this happen more than a few times with these type systems....


Seems logical. Also makes me wonder what the movement is once it hits the passage.


Obvious eye is obvious.
Quoting hurricane23:


You know regardless whether this goes on the east or west coast of florida we are going to get some weather from it. Heavy rainfall is a good bet along with a tornado threat. Winds are still up in the air. Was told from friend here at the WFO miami the TS warnings are a good bet tommorow late morning.
Good stuff. The angle that it's coming in from puts southeastern Florida in the northeastern quadrant regardless, so there's always that.

Any chance for hurricane watches? I'd assume that will go up should it keep contact with Cuba to a minimal and follow a path similar to the 12z or 18z GFS.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


where is it going to bounce?


Just look what Ivan did South of Jamaica.
I think you know what I'm getting at...it would not be a change in course.

1191. JasonRE
I just asked a little while ago if Louisiana was out of the cone and someone clearly stated a NO. I just looked at the cone and it is nowhere near Louisiana's coast. Sorry, I just don't see how we could be in the danger zone any longer. I know there could be slight changes in the path, but to move it that far West would be crazy.
1192. Levi32
Center jumped back to the northwest. Shrug and move on.
Quoting DookiePBC:
Hey all...on vacation with friends in the St Louis area...scheduled to fly home Sunday night at 8:00 to Ft. Lauderdale. Latest models and cone are leading me to believe I don't need to fly home early to put up shutters. Any opinions wuld be helpful. :-) (I've posted before and look at my joined date...not a troll. Sad I even need to point that out bu trolls are running rampant.)


From all reports we won't need shutters. That's the way it stands tonight anyway.

Just a lot of rain and winds around 30-35, with some higher gusts is what I've seen forecasted.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Eh... Not a Major Hurricane... More like Borderline Category 2/3 ;)
I'm waiting to see how Isaac fairs over Cuba before making intensity calls in the Gulf.
Quoting Levi32:
Center jumped back to the northwest. Shrug and move on.


lol yup

SW movement was just temporary

storm is going to wobble
1196. jasblt
Quoting Dakster:


Wow and the snakes are going crazy there?

I checked my yard and I don't have any... South Dade here..

The storks are going crazy.. over the snakes..They are up against the house, in the yard, looking down before I step outside. lol
hi, seems like we're jogcasting tonight
1198. DeValk
Isaac must be a liberal. He keeps going left...staying away from Tampa.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Deepening major hurricane on the 18z GFDL.



That's not a major yet.

That's Cat 2 pressure and cat 1, ~90mph winds.

I've seen the text output.
Quoting serialteg:
hi, seems like we're jogcasting tonight
How was the weather by you in PR?
Quoting Dakster:


Wow 12" of rain in SFLA...


scary thought
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Obvious eye is obvious.

Dont expect it to last long... It'll be gone, hopefully, if convection blows up.
Quoting Levi32:
Center jumped back to the northwest. Shrug and move on.


Shrug........LOL..........LOL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Deepening major hurricane on the 18z GFDL.



HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -86.76 LAT: 28.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.07
Zoomiami...much appreciated!! Thanks!!
Quoting DeValk:
Isaac must be a liberal. He keeps going left...staying away from Tampa.
Woah that was smart lol. Going left from Tampa (literally) and because of the RNC.
1207. baulas
Quoting RTSplayer:
Look how strong and organized the storms over the Bahamas have become!

This is ridiculous, and that's just one band...they're like that all the way down the coast of Cuba now...


Already been without power once today as a gusty squall went through Jupiter. I can hear another one on the way. Gonna be a fun few days!

Having been through Frances, Jeanne and Wilma I would not wish a hurricane on anyone. Hope his thing falls apart. Praying for the people of Haiti.
Ewww that is not a eye.I don't no what the hell that is.
Quoting Levi32:
Center jumped back to the northwest. Shrug and move on.


I really Like You,,, But Didn't Like what you just said,,, I am in Louisiana,,,, :)


Big yikes for Okinawa and Kadena AFB with a strengthening Cat 4 Bolaven . This storm is frightening, yet awesomely beautiful.

Overheard a coffee line conversation among some 20-something surfers talking about friends who flew there on Wednesday to surf the waves ahead of Bolaven. It seems storm surfer tourism among the rich kids here in SoCal (and globally) is a fast-growing business.

I've been monitoring the Kadena AFB Facebook page. Since they have not had a major typhoon hit in 13 years, I hope they are ready and taking it VERY seriously.
Quoting zoomiami:


scary thought


Link?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Extending into Broward and Palm Beach?


yep..
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good stuff. The angle that it's coming in from puts southeastern Florida in the northeastern quadrant regardless, so there's always that.

Any chance for hurricane watches? I'd assume that will go up should it keep contact with Cuba to a minimal and follow a path similar to the 12z or 18z GFS.


Hurricane Watches are possible yes but it will depend with its land interaction and in what shape the storm is as it approaches the southern part of the state. Issac has a massive windfield and its affects will be felt around most of florida.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Eh... Not a Major Hurricane... More like Borderline Category 2/3 ;)

That is classified as a Major Hurricane. I don't think Isaac will get that strong, even though the SST's and OHC could become rocket fuel once he's in the GOM if he makes it. Without a defined LLC, he could get ripped apart by land interaction.
.
Quoting MarkTodd2233:


I really Like You,,, But Didn't Like what you just said,,,

I am in La
1216. LargoFl
Quoting Dakster:


Wow 12" of rain in SFLA...
going to be flooding there for sure..you can almost count on it huh..gee
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm waiting to see how Isaac fairs over Cuba before making intensity calls in the Gulf.

I said 105 Mph Category 2 with Landfall near or just west of Pensacola, and Cody has it a 120 mph Category 3 making landfall west of my forecasted location...

Anyway. Going to make a more In-depth forecast tracking map tomorrow after Isaac makes the cross through the Islands, etc. And see how it fares.
do we have a eye?

Quoting BarometerGirl:


Big yikes for Okinawa and Kadena AFB with a strengthening Cat 4 Bolaven . This storm is frightening, yet awesomely beautiful.

Overheard a coffee line conversation among some 20-something surfers talking about friends who flew there on Wednesday to surf the waves ahead of Bolaven. It seems storm surfer tourism among the rich kids here in SoCal (and globally) is a fast-growing business.

I've been monitoring the Kadena AFB Facebook page. Since they have not had a major typhoon hit in 13 years, I hope they are ready and taking it VERY seriously.


Sweet Looking.......Looks Innocent.............but.........
Although the LLCOC is very well defined now, the overall satellite presentation of Isaac is a mess tonight. Much of its heavy convection seems to be breaking off an heading northeast. It looks like it will be a much smaller storm after it crosses Haiti - which might actually aid in development long term.
Now THAT is a pinhole eye.

Hey Zoo....
Thats going to create some serious flooding.! Wow
Quoting zoomiami:


scary thought
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Woah that was smart lol. Going left from Tampa (literally) and because of the RNC.

That was clever. ;)
Miami Sunday forecast:

Tropical storm conditions possible. Cloudy with showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Not as warm. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph becoming east 40 to 45 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 60 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Stop with the eyecasting!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

does the x 9.3 mean 9.3in for south fla.... ??
Quoting AussieStorm:

That is classified as a Major Hurricane. I don't think Isaac will get that strong, even though the SST's and OHC could become rocket fuel once he's in the GOM if he makes it. Without a defined LLC, he could get ripped apart by land interaction.

Someone just posted it is 90 Mph storm on GFDL.
Quoting AussieStorm:

That is classified as a Major Hurricane. I don't think Isaac will get that strong, even though the SST's and OHC could become rocket fuel once he's in the GOM if he makes it. Without a defined LLC, he could get ripped apart by land interaction.
Agreed.Even though people don't want to admit it Isaac could come out of Cuba as a tropical depression.even some experts have stated that.
i was going to ask if anyone knew what projected time Isaac could emerge from the different geographical regions of Cuba (tip, eastern, central, etc), but if he's slowed to a crawl, then I don't know if anyone would be able to answer that....

I ask, because all bets are off, it seems, until he does emerge on the N side... and wondering if he does scrape the eastern tip how early that puts him back over water....
1231. Torgen
Quoting Buhdog:


Amen sist

as an old timer...I feel the same way SJ. I praise the ones who have made the long journey through the history of this blog. I came here to this site in 2004 to learn more about Charley as it was coming toward us. Now as a new storm comes my way, I can proudly say I still don't know crap. :)



I know what you mean. I discovered this site when looking for info on Charley, too. I actually tried to learn all this stuff a few years back, but gave up, so I guess we both have DNC (Don't Know Crap) degrees from WU. ;)
Quoting Tazmanian:
do we have a eye?


no. hey Eye-caster... lol
Quoting Felix2007:
Stop with the eyecasting!




ok can we doomcast then?
Quoting Tazmanian:
do we have a eye?



It looks like an impressive convective burst to the south of the center...idk if that clearing to the west is due to dry air starting to work its way into the CoC or not?
1235. LargoFl
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

THE LATEST HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TAKES ISAAC INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THAT
ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST CAN BE AS MUCH
AS 300 MILES. WHILE LOCAL IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CYCLONE...NOW IS A
GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE PLAN.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING BY MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MARINE INTERESTS MAY WISH TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY IF YOU WILL BE AWAY FROM
YOUR BOAT. BEACHFRONT INTERESTS SHOULD PLAN ON SECURING OBJECTS
VULNERABLE TO SURF ACTION PRIOR TO THE HIGH SURF DEVELOPING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
I just want to clarify that Isaac does NOT have an eye, I don't know why some people are saying it does. Recon has not reported one, and microwave imagery does not support one.

Quoting AussieStorm:

no. hey Eye-caster... lol



lol
oh well never mind the SW movements

and good call by the NHC 17.3N 72.0W recon has in same place

if you look at last fix before it drifting SW and the fix now it shows a WNW movement

though Sattelite still show W movement

steering still show a W-WNW movement for Isaac

Bottoms out at 969 millibars, which would be a Category 3 hurricane in real life.

Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
Miami Sunday forecast:

Tropical storm conditions possible. Cloudy with showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Not as warm. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph becoming east 40 to 45 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 60 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.


Are you trying to be a downcaster? Lol -- what I quoted earlier was the WU forecast at 3:00 today.

Still don't think the majority of people will need shutters. We may do one section of the house due to the rain --- crazy wind driven rain hitting windows sideways (older ones) can cause some issues.
Quoting LargoFl:
..........dont look at the black dot..if you are in the white zone..your in danger

no even. white and every thing is for the CENTER not impacts... if ur 350 miles outside the come ur in danger
Quoting JasonRE:
I just asked a little while ago if Louisiana was out of the cone and someone clearly stated a NO. I just looked at the cone and it is nowhere near Louisiana's coast. Sorry, I just don't see how we could be in the danger zone any longer. I know there could be slight changes in the path, but to move it that far West would be crazy.


Probably someone who lived through other storms.
Quoting AussieStorm:

does the x 9.3 mean 9.3in for south fla.... ??


The "x" is the predicted local maximum, the 9.3 inches is the value of that prediction.

So if the "x" is over land, then the answer is "yes".

If it's off shore, use the color scale and your judgement.

I didn't see the map, so I'll back up, read it, and amend this post if needed.
1244. Dakster
Quoting LargoFl:
going to be flooding there for sure..you can almost count on it huh..gee


Considering that we had 9" of rain a couple of months ago when I was in Doral and the streets had 12 - 18 inches of standing water on them... yes...

I bet people will be on their roofs in sweetwater if 12" or more comes down.
Hoping Isaac slows down in order to get here Sunday night. I hate daytime hurricanes (contrary to regularity).
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just want to clarify that Isaac does NOT have an eye, I don't know why some people are saying it does. Recon has not reported one, and microwave imagery does not support one.


There's obviously a partial eyewall in that image, and recon has reported an eyewall open to the west.
1248. Levi32
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Hey levi you ever seen convection fire up this intense in front of a developing system. That almost has a 1000 mile stretch from Port-au-Prince to Miami. Very unstable out ahead of this system. I hope that is not a precursor of much worse things to come.


Well that's not uncommon with an upper low ahead of the system causing upper divergence. The atmosphere farther north is more unstable than in the Caribbean though.
Quoting gregcowd:
I live in west palm beach. I am flying out of town on Sunday morning. Should I shutter my home before I leave?
Not necessary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Storm is nothing......
1250. j2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
do we have a eye?

Looking at the overall direction it looks as if he may move through the path of least resistance between Haiti and Cuba. Idk to the untrained eye it looks like a NNW movement, scary thought if true.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


where is it going to bounce?
Please consider this. If you apply a point of force to a rotating mass that is traveling in a certain direction(in this case NW) that point will act as a fulcrum point to that mass.The resulting reaction should cause a change of direction.(possibly 90 degrees?)Even though I adhere to the w/wnw steering ,in this case in may be just a simple case of engineering dynamics.Any thoughts??
1252. yoboi
Quoting Levi32:
They're looking really hard lol.




levi ya should see the power point i got this eve....wow
1253. hahaguy
Quoting zoomiami:


Are you trying to be a downcaster? Lol -- what I quoted earlier was the WU forecast at 3:00 today.

Still don't think the majority of people will need shutters. We may do one section of the house due to the rain --- crazy wind driven rain hitting windows sideways (older ones) can cause some issues.

I agree. Most people wouldn't need to put their shutters unless something dramatically changes.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just want to clarify that Isaac does NOT have an eye, I don't know why some people are saying it does. Recon has not reported one, and microwave imagery does not support one.



Chill..... I think everyone is being sarcastic.
From the Miami NWS...Preparing for Isaac...

Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just want to clarify that Isaac does NOT have an eye, I don't know why some people are saying it does. Recon has not reported one, and microwave imagery does not support one.



Umm... recon reported eye feature a while ago
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bottoms out at 969 millibars, which would be a Category 3 hurricane in real life.



Mid grade cat 2..



Category 2
Sustained winds 43–49 m/s 83–95 kn 154–177 km/h 96–110 mph
Normal central pressure 965–979 mbar 28.50–28.91 inHg
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just want to clarify that Isaac does NOT have an eye, I don't know why some people are saying it does. Recon has not reported one, and microwave imagery does not support one.



ropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 17.27N 72.04W
Splash Time: 0:14Z


says dropped in eye......
Cuba can make storms do strange things -- Fay was projected to run to the end of Cuba, and sort of make her away around. About 4:30 am, SJ and I, who were the only strange people watching radar of a basically nothing storm, watched it actually "hop" across the center. Good morning Miami!

We all know the end of that story -- Fay never did go anywhere she was suppose to, and spent the next weeks wandering around Florida.

Isaac is really big -- don't see it hopping much.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Chill..... I think everyone is being sarcastic.

We weren't, lol.
I believe Isaac is looking to go over the least land he can.He looks to be shooting the gap nicely.
1262. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




ok can we doomcast then?



taz look at that wave in af....
Quoting yoboi:



levi ya should see the power point i got this eve....wow


Is it a 2 pin or 3 pin powerpoint. Does it have a built in circuit-breaker?
Quoting RTSplayer:


Mid grade cat 2..



Category 2
Sustained winds 43–49 m/s 83–95 kn 154–177 km/h 96–110 mph
Normal central pressure 965–979 mbar 28.50–28.91 inHg

High-end Cat 2...

Still, close enough. :P
Quoting Tazmanian:
do we have a eye?


id say so
Quoting Levi32:


Well that's not uncommon with an upper low ahead of the system causing upper divergence. The atmosphere farther north is more unstable than in the Caribbean though.

Yeah its not as bad I thought, got to reading comments, then seeing the rainbow of doom loops, and not thinking. That MW pass looks as if he is still not stacked? Looks stretched NW to SE.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Umm... recon reported eye feature a while ago

As TA 13 said, they reported a partial open eyewall, not an eye... Could be developing one, but definitely no eye yet.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Mid grade cat 2..



Category 2
Sustained winds 43–49 m/s 83–95 kn 154–177 km/h 96–110 mph
Normal central pressure 965–979 mbar 28.50–28.91 inHg


I wouldn't call it mid grade
1270. LargoFl
***ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA***................................TROPICAL STORM ISAAC LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
612 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO PALM BEACH...COASTAL
COLLIER...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND BROWARD...METRO BROWARD...
INLAND MIAMI DADE...METRO MIAMI DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...COASTAL
PALM BEACH...COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE AND FAR SOUTH
MIAMI DADE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2N...LONGITUDE 71.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 790 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FL...OR ABOUT 880 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES
FL. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. TO
DO SO COULD RESULT IN BAD DECISIONS AND PLACE YOU OR THOSE YOU
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AT GREATER RISK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE
SPECIFIC WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES.

A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
FARTHER EAST OR THE STORM IS STRONGER THAN PREDICTED.

THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT COULD
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SHOULD THE STORM MOVE FARTHER EAST OR THE
SYSTEM BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO IMPLEMENT YOUR
HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN FOR YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE
ADVICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...NOW IS THE
TIME TO IMPLEMENT ACTIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR MARINERS
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE
ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO CALL ESTABLISHED LOCAL
INFORMATION NUMBERS FOR STORM-RELATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION.

IN MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, CALL 311. IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY, CALL 561-712-6400. IN COLLIER COUNTY, CALL 239-252-9300.
IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, CALL 211. YOU CAN ALSO VISIT
READY.GOV, READYSOUTHFLORIDA.ORG, FLORIDADISASTER.ORG,THE AMERICAN
RED CROSS AT REDCROSS.ORG OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WEB
SITE.

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PORTS ARE IN READINESS CONDITION X-RAY WHICH
INCLUDES LOWERING CONTAINER STACKS TO FOUR HIGH AND TO INITIATE
PREPARATIONS TO TERMINATE CARGO OPERATIONS.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI AROUND 12 AM...OR SOONER I
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just want to clarify that Isaac does NOT have an eye, I don't know why some people are saying it does. Recon has not reported one, and microwave imagery does not support one.


Question:

When was this last updated? :P

and

When did the Recon say that?

When is the word. When.
1272. Levi32
18z GFS ensembles did show up on the SFWMD site. Operational run was the left-most outlier.

Man there are tons of differences of opinion on Isaac. You read a post that says "Isaac's looking really disorganized this evening" then 2 posts down you see "Isaac is really looking much better this evening" ?????????? And what is the difference between a "wobble" and a "shift"? Funny stuff.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS...Preparing for Isaac...

Link


Here's one from Tallahasse.
Weather briefing
990mb



970mb



The ridges are making bridges.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


ropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 17.27N 72.04W
Splash Time: 0:14Z


says dropped in eye......


it does not have an eye plus it always say that when it is dropped in the LLCOC

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

As TA 13 said, they reported a partial open eyewall, not an eye... Could be developing one, but definitely no eye yet.


So if i close my eye that means i don't have one lol jk i get ya or open it rather lol
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yep, about 10 dropsondes went into the 18Z


Hmm, and those are the ones that were on the western nose of the ridge...May be why we saw the shift back west in the 4-5 day time frame?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bottoms out at 969 millibars, which would be a Category 3 hurricane in real life.





Problem with this verifying is that quite a few offshore rigs would have to evacuate.



Not a closed eyewall.... still open to the SE
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


ropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 17.27N 72.04W
Splash Time: 0:14Z


says dropped in eye......



Some dropsonde operators use the word EYE in remarks of all sondes released in the center of a cyclone. Since there are often multiple sondes released in and around a storm, EYE flags this is the sonde dropped in the center, and not intended to indicate the storm has an actual eye.


Item #11
1282. LargoFl
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS ensembles did show up on the SFWMD site. Operational run was the left-most outlier.


And in line with both the ECMWF and GFDL.
Quoting Articuno:

Question:

When was this last updated? :P

and

When did the Recon say that?

When is the word. When.

Microwave is from a few hours ago... It suggests a partial eyewall starting to form, but there's no way an eye would form in the time since that image. Recon has made the same observations, a developing, open eyewall.
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS ensembles did show up on the SFWMD site. Operational run was the left-most outlier.

Almost as big of an outlier as the official track, they're taking it easy to avoid drastic changes I guess.
Key Largo Sunday:

Tropical storm conditions possible. Cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows near 80. Southeast winds 45 to 65 mph with gusts to near 80 mph...becoming south and decreasing to 35 to 45 mph with gusts to near 55 mph after midnight.
Quoting Stormcow6:
Not necessary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Storm is nothing......

:P
1288. Dakster
._.



Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS ensembles did show up on the SFWMD site. Operational run was the left-most outlier.



TVCN is mobile bay and into the Tennessee area.

That would actually be a beneficial scenario as long as it isn't too strong at land fall...

But wait, isn't that based on models initialized 8 hours ago?!
HAHA first sign that Fall is eventually coming:

... Freeze warning in effect from 1 am to 9 am PDT Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Spokane has issued a freeze
warning... which is in effect from 1 am to 9 am PDT Saturday.

* Temperatures: ranging from 29 to 35 valleys and 32 to 42
in the mountains.

* Timing: freezing temperatures will generally occur between 3am
and 7am.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

As TA 13 said, they reported a partial open eyewall, not an eye... Could be developing one, but definitely no eye yet.


Quoting RTSplayer:
990mb



970mb



The ridges are making bridges.


What are you trying to say? Texas?
1292. SykKid
isaac still look awful wow lol he gonna get ripped apart when it hits land!
1293. Dakster
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Not a closed eyewall.... still open to the SE


Getting closer to forming a complete eye though...

1294. bappit
I seem to see an eye.
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS ensembles did show up on the SFWMD site. Operational run was the left-most outlier.



TCVN shifted west to around Mobile, Al... expect the next NHC track to shift westward LATE in the track.

The first 48/72 hours track still has Isaac going very close to (or over) S. Florida.
1296. afj3
The GFS has the worst of Isaac right over Miami-Dade County....or am I looking at it wrong?
Quoting Dakster:


Here is a wobble...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWO7iyb1XCk





Yes Indeed!!!!! Dat's what I'm talkin' bout.
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Man there are tons of differences of opinion on Isaac. You read a post that says "Isaac's looking really disorganized this evening" then 2 posts down you see "Isaac is really looking much better this evening" ?????????? And what is the difference between a "wobble" and a "shift"? Funny stuff.


A "Wobble" is when it moves sort of like a sine wave or a stair way along the track, and later resumes the general direction.


A "Shift" is when a long term direction change is occurring.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


it does not have an eye plus it always say that when it is dropped in the LLCOC



L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

yes its open in the west or was at 21:40Z but there is an eye feature there. It isnt a closed eye but its there.
I'm going to have to agree with everybody else and say that's an eye.

1301. A4Guy
good convection firing up around the center now. the little strip of land he will go over probably won't do much since he is moving at a good clip. Man, it's gonna be a close call with just how much over Cuba he moves..jsut a few miles off the NHC track, and he will stay in the warm waters of the straits.
Quoting zoomiami:
Cuba can make storms do strange things -- Fay was projected to run to the end of Cuba, and sort of make her away around. About 4:30 am, SJ and I, who were the only strange people watching radar of a basically nothing storm, watched it actually "hop" across the center. Good morning Miami!

We all know the end of that story -- Fay never did go anywhere she was suppose to, and spent the next weeks wandering around Florida.

Isaac is really big -- don't see it hopping much.


Evening Zoo. Remember that clearly.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to have to agree with everybody else and say that's an eye.


But it looks open to the SE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good stuff. The angle that it's coming in from puts southeastern Florida in the northeastern quadrant regardless, so there's always that.

Any chance for hurricane watches? I'd assume that will go up should it keep contact with Cuba to a minimal and follow a path similar to the 12z or 18z GFS.


According to Marine Advisory Bulletin below Hurricane Force winds are not anticipated until the TS is in the GOM however check out the TS (34kts) force winds field for this storm. The NE quadrant (dirty side) extends to 160 miles. Info is found at the bottom of this posting.

2100 UTC Fri Aug 24 2012


changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

the government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Andros Island.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a tropical storm watch for
the northwestern Bahamas...including the Abacos...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for all of the Florida
Keys including the Dry Tortugas...the Florida East Coast south of
Jupiter Inlet...the Florida West Coast south of Bonita
Beach...Florida Bay...and Lake Okeechobee.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...Villa
Clara...Camaguey...Las Tunas...Granma...Holguin...Santiago de
Cuba...and Guantanamo
* Andros Island
* the central Bahamas including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long
Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador
* southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins...Crooked Island...long
cay...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged Islands
* Turks and Caicos Islands

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and Cienfuegos
* Jamaica
* the northwestern Bahamas...including the Abacos...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.
* The Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* the Florida East Coast south of Jupiter Inlet
* the Florida West Coast south of Bonita Beach
* Florida Bay and Lake Okeechobee

a Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Cuba and the remainder of the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Isaac.

Tropical storm center located near 17.2n 71.9w at 24/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 14 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 994 mb
Max sustained winds 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
50 kt....... 60ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt.......160ne 90se 75sw 120nw.
12 ft seas..450ne 250se 60sw 480nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 17.2n 71.9w at 24/2100z
at 24/1800z center was located near 16.8n 71.4w

forecast valid 25/0600z 18.7n 73.6w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt...160ne 90se 75sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 25/1800z 20.7n 76.2w...inland
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt...160ne 90se 75sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 26/0600z 22.4n 78.6w...near coast of Cuba
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...160ne 90se 75sw 120nw.

Overall convection remains pretty weak, but there has been some convective development around the center/ developing eye. Keep your expectations pretty low tonight though and for the next day or two for that matter, as it is unlikely we'll see much strengthening around the islands... The real action will occur in the Gulf.

1306. LargoFl
WTNT24 KNHC 242054
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
2100 UTC FRI AUG 24 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF
JUPITER INLET...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA
BEACH...FLORIDA BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* ANDROS ISLAND
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH
* FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 71.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 250SE 60SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 71.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 71.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.7N 73.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.7N 76.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.4N 78.6W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 23.9N 80.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 29.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 32.0N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
1307. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:


Is it a 2 pin or 3 pin powerpoint. Does it have a built in circuit-breaker?



lol
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Man there are tons of differences of opinion on Isaac. You read a post that says "Isaac's looking really disorganized this evening" then 2 posts down you see "Isaac is really looking much better this evening" ?????????? And what is the difference between a "wobble" and a "shift"? Funny stuff.

Do you know what Jelly is like.... well. if you hit it with a spoon it will wobble.... a shift is if you pic up the plate and move it a few inches in any direction.
Quoting RTSplayer:
990mb



970mb



The ridges are making bridges.

Hmm less WNW-NW, and more W-WNW





as the night continues, please watch the sattelites. so far they are showing W movements and hardly any N movements, if this continues Wbound well... then you know...
Man Stephanie Abrams rocks a ball cap. She always seems to find her way to the right spot when storms roll in.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I believe Isaac is looking to go over the least land he can.He looks to be shooting the gap nicely.


I was just pointing that out to my husband. He's been putting on a show at night the last two nights...wondering if that will hold true if he's passing over land, however skinny.
And that's what's fascinating about hurricanes. They are dangerous and I wouldn't wish them on anyone, but they can be awesomely beautiful.

Quoting BarometerGirl:


Big yikes for Okinawa and Kadena AFB with a strengthening Cat 4 Bolaven . This storm is frightening, yet awesomely beautiful.
1314. SykKid
lol! that not an eye
1315. j2008
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Overall convection remains pretty weak, but there has been some convective development around the center/ developing eye. Keep your expectations pretty low tonight, and for the next day or two for that matter, as it is unlikely we'll see much strengthening around the islands... The real action will occur in the Gulf.

But if he somehow manages to close off the eye before landfall tonight/tomorrow, I wouldnt be surprised if he toughes it out. He seems to be primed for some TC surprises....that most of us wont like.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:




What are you trying to say? Texas?


No.

Just making a rhyme, it happens all the time, but this one happened to be factual.

I'm pretty sure this is from central to east Gulf now, as long as no silly stalls happen anyways.

GFS and Euro agree pretty well now, and it's only 4.5 days out, so it's highly unlikely they are both going to blow a forecast that badly now...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Hmm less WNW-NW, and more W-WNW





as the night continues, please watch the sattelites. so far they are showing W movements and hardly any N movements, if this continues Wbound well... then you know...


It's going towards you dude. You told me you had your shutters up for another storm. Hope they are still up! Stay safe.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL CARTERET COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA * UNTIL 900 PM EDT * AT 840 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO OVER CAPE LOOKOUT LIGHTHOUSE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEAUFORT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
Nasty looking hook
Quoting LargoFl:


I don't ever remember seeing a track like that...seriously. I'm sure there's been one, but I can't think of it.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
How was the weather by you in PR?




Quoting SykKid:
isaac still look awful wow lol he gonna get ripped apart when it hits land!

sarcasm
1323. LargoFl
Quoting muddertracker:


I don't ever remember seeing a track like that...seriously. I'm sure there's been one, but I can't think of it.
yeah this storm is making its own history huh
1324. CJ5
Recon reported a eye wall feature earlier but it is not what some of you guys are looking at. The center of circulation (eyewall feature) is covered and is west of what appears to be a clear eye.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Do you know what Jelly is like.... well. if you hit it with a spoon it will wobble.... a shift is if you pic up the plate and move it a few inches in any direction.


But if you hit the jelly hard enough, it'll shift all over the place to huh? ;-)
1326. wn1995



My latest forecast track for Isaac.
hey all..long time reader ~ infrequent poster...

I like how this blog ALWAYS ''predicts'' pretty darn accurately and in addition to this, it is predicted BEFORE it is reported on TV...always! I come here every year and ive learned so much. i have a new respect for these storms. there are a lot of talented people here who know what they are talking about. and that brings me to my question:

what would a cat 2 do to a motorhome [not a mobile home but an actual motorhome for road travel ..?] I live in one in Daytona beach about 20 mi or so inland from the coast. this storm is looking downright scary at this moment..
1328. LargoFl
.............at 72 hours
Quoting j2008:
But if he somehow manages to close off the eye before landfall tonight/tomorrow, I wouldnt be surprised if he toughes it out. He seems to be primed for some TC surprises....that most of us wont like.


Its shooting the gap It should emerge over water between
Haiti and Cuba where it could be a Hurricane if not stronger go over Eastern Cuba emerge over the SW Bahamas where it will have a day or so to strengthen into a Cat 2 or 3.
Quoting Articuno:

sarcasm


Sykkid may just be the biggest downcaster on this site, never have I ever seen this person post anything positive about any storm.
1331. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


is that a eye peeps
Quoting serialteg:






Quite choppy the S....Yesterday, Condado and "La Bomba" had offshore winds.... Felt like Rincon...
Tomorrow wave size drops, but winds will be from the S....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It's going towards you dude. You told me you had your shutters up for another storm. Hope they are still up! Stay safe.


nah I don't think so and I took most of my shutter down a little while back
1334. dabbott
Quoting GeauxGirl:


I was just pointing that out to my husband. He's been putting on a show at night the last two nights...wondering if that will hold true if he's passing over land, however skinny.

Who? Your Husband!
The LLC is just to the West of what some are referring to as an eye, under convection, not sure what that is, dry slot?
1338. guygee
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


ropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 17.27N 72.04W
Splash Time: 0:14Z


says dropped in eye......
they said the same for Ernesto, when there was no eye. They are using the term loosely, wait for the vortex msg and see what they say about a real eye.
Dry air.... affecting....

.
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


But if you hit the jelly hard enough, it'll shift all over the place to huh? ;-)

and if you have been Drinking,, it will staker
Big Long Range RGB loop shows eye-like feature and jogging back to the north, maybe even neast towards the jutting part of the island - Jaragua Nat'l Park.

I'm a seeing things?
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
hey all..long time reader ~ infrequent poster...

I like how this blog ALWAYS ''predicts'' pretty darn accurately and in addition to this, it is predicted BEFORE it is reported on TV...always! I come here every year and ive learned so much. i have a new respect for these storms. there are a lot of talented people here who know what they are talking about. and that brings me to my question:

what would a cat 2 do to a motorhome [not a mobile home but an actual motorhome for road travel ..?] I live in one in Daytona beach about 20 mi or so inland from the coast. this storm is looking downright scary at this moment..



I'm no storm forecaster, but I think most everyone will agree that if a storm is headed in your general direction, crank up the motor home and drive away. At least until it passes.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Its shooting the gap It should emerge over water between
Haiti and Cuba where it could be a Hurricane if not stronger go over Eastern Cuba emerge over the SW Bahamas where it will have a day or so to strengthen into a Cat 2 or 3.


It does appear that it may shoot the gap. That could be interesting.
1344. Bielle
Quoting MarkTodd2233:

and if you have been Drinking,, it will staker


"Staker"? New word for me.
1345. yoboi
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Man Stephanie Abrams rocks a ball cap. She always seems to find her way to the right spot when storms roll in.



stop putting bad thoughts in my head....lol
Quoting HimacaneBrees:




Yes Indeed!!!!! Dat's what I'm talkin' bout.


Mystical spotted me $20 at Albertsons on College Dr. in Baton Rouge back before he went to jail.

Their credit card machines were down and he was behind me in line.

Pretty cool of him.
Quoting BarometerGirl:
Big yikes for Okinawa and Kadena AFB with a strengthening Cat 4 Bolaven . This storm is frightening, yet awesomely beautiful.



Quoting NoloContendere:
And that's what's fascinating about hurricanes. They are dangerous and I wouldn't wish them on anyone, but they can be awesomely beautiful.



I have a good friend in Okinawa. I am very worried for her. Possible 70m/s - 252km/h - 156.59mph wind gusts. Sustained.... 50m/s - 180km/h - 111.85mph
What the heck? We CAN'T go a 50 post page without a funktop baby! (Patrap must be on vacay or something)...

1350. LargoFl
Quoting stormjake:


It does appear that it may shoot the gap. That could be interesting.
..maybe..THIS is where the miami hit came from..it shoots the gap..builds and into miami/south florida
Quoting sunlinepr:
wow, hope that strong outer band of Isaac, doesn't get here , is getting so close to me, here in west PR.
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
hey all..long time reader ~ infrequent poster...

I like how this blog ALWAYS ''predicts'' pretty darn accurately and in addition to this, it is predicted BEFORE it is reported on TV...always! I come here every year and ive learned so much. i have a new respect for these storms. there are a lot of talented people here who know what they are talking about. and that brings me to my question:

what would a cat 2 do to a motorhome [not a mobile home but an actual motorhome for road travel ..?] I live in one in Daytona beach about 20 mi or so inland from the coast. this storm is looking downright scary at this moment..


I don't know enough about Daytona to comment on water issues, but I would not want to be in a cat 2 with only a motor home to ride it out.


I would ride out of town in the motor home.


I'm normally a storm enthusiast, and go out and play in a cat 2 like a little kid or something..., but I have a brick home far inland to fall back to, so that's a different matter.


Get a hotel room 20 to 50 miles farther inland, and park the motor home on the leeward side of the building if possible.
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
hey all..long time reader ~ infrequent poster...

I like how this blog ALWAYS ''predicts'' pretty darn accurately and in addition to this, it is predicted BEFORE it is reported on TV...always! I come here every year and ive learned so much. i have a new respect for these storms. there are a lot of talented people here who know what they are talking about. and that brings me to my question:

what would a cat 2 do to a motorhome [not a mobile home but an actual motorhome for road travel ..?] I live in one in Daytona beach about 20 mi or so inland from the coast. this storm is looking downright scary at this moment..

Ok if no one has answered your question I will give it a try.... You live about 20 miles from the coast then you will get some strong winds and even possible "Tornados" in the area..... Then lets not forget the possible "Flooding" from all the heavy rains.... You may wnt to fill up aswell... I hope this helps....

Taco :o)
In reply to an earlier post, Isaac is not moving west or west northwest. It is moving NORTHWEST per NHC. You can clearly see the NW movement on satellite.
Quoting 7544:


is that a eye peeps


Takes someone smarter than me to figure that out.

yeah isaac said since he had so much trouble with his circulation and dry air hes not even trying to deal with those mountain...shootin the gap!
Quoting Bielle:


"Staker"? New word for me.


I have been Drinking,, did I spell Drinking right,,, lol
HWRF 90hrs....

Quoting bappit:
I seem to see an eye.


Stop looking at me Isaac!
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
hey all..long time reader ~ infrequent poster...

I like how this blog ALWAYS ''predicts'' pretty darn accurately and in addition to this, it is predicted BEFORE it is reported on TV...always! I come here every year and ive learned so much. i have a new respect for these storms. there are a lot of talented people here who know what they are talking about. and that brings me to my question:

what would a cat 2 do to a motorhome [not a mobile home but an actual motorhome for road travel ..?] I live in one in Daytona beach about 20 mi or so inland from the coast. this storm is looking downright scary at this moment..


Do not ride out a cat 2 in your motor home.
1361. LargoFl
1362. ackee
TO my un train EYES Isaac DOES seem like he trying to avoid a direct track over Hati could be critical for intensity further down the road.
1363. Thrawst
I know nobody cares at this very moment.. but the 18z GFS shows a TS forming in the GOM at 189 hours.

1364. A4Guy
the latest consensus shifts east in the short term...and west in the long term...much greater angle across the Gulf. The pattern is really evolving quickly.
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
hey all..long time reader ~ infrequent poster...

I like how this blog ALWAYS ''predicts'' pretty darn accurately and in addition to this, it is predicted BEFORE it is reported on TV...always! I come here every year and ive learned so much. i have a new respect for these storms. there are a lot of talented people here who know what they are talking about. and that brings me to my question:

what would a cat 2 do to a motorhome [not a mobile home but an actual motorhome for road travel ..?] I live in one in Daytona beach about 20 mi or so inland from the coast. this storm is looking downright scary at this moment..


aaaahhh... if it's mobile and has a motor - it might be best to go somewhere else for a CAT2. I don't think anyone is seriously looking for even a CAT1 in Daytona.

But, it's not the best place to ride out any amount of wind - even a small tornado. it has lots of cross-sectional area and high center of gravity and that makes it susceptible to not staying in one place during a wind event.

Quoting charlottefl:
The LLC is just to the West of what some are referring to as an eye, under convection, not sure what that is, dry slot?



Drier anyway.

It's pretty messed up right there on nearly any satellite tool.

Isaac is still having issues with dry air in the inflow at the surface, and it's screwed up in the upper layers as well.
Quoting muddertracker:
What the heck? We CAN'T go a 50 post page without a funktop baby! (Patrap must be on vacay or something)...


Here's the loop....

Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
hey all..long time reader ~ infrequent poster...

I like how this blog ALWAYS ''predicts'' pretty darn accurately and in addition to this, it is predicted BEFORE it is reported on TV...always! I come here every year and ive learned so much. i have a new respect for these storms. there are a lot of talented people here who know what they are talking about. and that brings me to my question:

what would a cat 2 do to a motorhome [not a mobile home but an actual motorhome for road travel ..?] I live in one in Daytona beach about 20 mi or so inland from the coast. this storm is looking downright scary at this moment..


Same as a tracker trailer - tip it over or a tree might fall on it. The only difference between the two is the weight of the engine and drive train on the motor home. If cat 2 winds hit it just right it will be turned over on it's side. It's better to drive it somewhere else if anything greater than a TS is approaching.
Notice how the BAMD has a landfall occurring north of Ft. Lauderdale. Not saying that's likely, but it gives you a nice perspective of the type of poleward adjustment that may be in store should Isaac keep Cuban interaction to a minimum and capitalize off of the favorable conditions in the Florida Straights.

Will come ashore at West Palm track thru Okeechobee, highlands, Tampa then to Gulf. Just sayin....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Takes someone smarter than me to figure that out.


Yes, looks like he is going to shoot the Cuba/DR gap. This just became a different storm...look for all the convection S of 17 to fall off.
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
hey all..long time reader ~ infrequent poster...

I like how this blog ALWAYS ''predicts'' pretty darn accurately and in addition to this, it is predicted BEFORE it is reported on TV...always! I come here every year and ive learned so much. i have a new respect for these storms. there are a lot of talented people here who know what they are talking about. and that brings me to my question:

what would a cat 2 do to a motorhome [not a mobile home but an actual motorhome for road travel ..?] I live in one in Daytona beach about 20 mi or so inland from the coast. this storm is looking downright scary at this moment..


I went thru a stalled tropical storm once in a motorhome. Winds 30 to 45 mph for a couple days. Didn't do any damage, just rocked the MH a lot. Not sure what hurricane force winds would do but I've never seen a minor hurricane blow a motorhome over.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Here's the loop....



Awesome. Thank you :) Pat does an amazing job of posting sattelite pics :)
Quoting muddertracker:
What the heck? We CAN'T go a 50 post page without a funktop baby! (Patrap must be on vacay or something)...


Yes, he is. Cancun, I believe.
Anyway, GFS is showing a Mobile landfall.
Also something else (HINT look east).



Inner core starting to look better.


Isaac not to be underestimated.
1377. Hhunter
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to have to agree with everybody else and say that's an eye.



It is an eye and you have to feel for 400,000 people in haiti living in tents. Even a strong tropical storm will be challenging for them.
1378. trey33
Quoting MarkTodd2233:


I have been Drinking,, did I spell Drinking right,,, lol


red wine here :)



1379. yoboi
Quoting MarkTodd2233:


I have been Drinking,, did I spell Drinking right,,, lol



!@*&^YT#@%R*)&% yes...
Quoting trey33:


red wine here :)





Natty Ice here...
Quoting trey33:


red wine here :)





2 vodka red bulls..one Shocktober (not bad, but Oktoberfet is better) :)


Going to get interesting tonight..
1386. FOREX
Quoting redwagon:

Yes, looks like he is going to shoot the Cuba/DR gap. This just became a different storm...look for all the convection S of 17 to fall off.


A lot of dry air and very low humidity levels to its north right now. Not good for a storm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to have to agree with everybody else and say that's an eye.







Don't think it is, its more of an usual dry slot. When you look at the loop its rotating around the circulation, not rotating itself.


Just a coincidental shape it seems. But the inner core itself is really spinning up on the loop.
Quoting AussieStorm:
HWRF 90hrs....



That's just the absolute worst place a hurricane can hit in the northern Gulf.

If hit at the right angle, the surge piles up in there and the Mississippi coast goes under.
1389. GetReal


Dry air slot; the COC is under the spinning clouds on the SW side of the dry air slot.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Going to get interesting tonight..

Main core of Isaac is splitting from the large disorganized bands to the east... Very interesting to see what happens.
I miss Angela Fritz doing the night updates :(

Where is she?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




97L



too early
yes thank you - to all who answered. i will try and make sure to have an emergency plan to leave with just a few things in our car, and take our three cats with us, and some essential things.

i have seen what a strong tropical storm can do to this motorhome. we lived a block from the coast last year when we had *two* storms ride up the east coast. 70mph winds and she held fast, no damage at all!
Quoting FOREX:


A lot of dry air and very low humidity levels to its north right now. Not good for a storm.




Dry Air to its north?

Dont think so
1395. A4Guy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Notice how the BAMD has a landfall occurring north of Ft. Lauderdale. Not saying that's likely, but it gives you a nice perspective of the type of poleward adjustment that may be in store should Isaac keep Cuban interaction to a minimum and capitalize off of the favorable conditions in the Florida Straights.



Hey..in SoFla with you, and man, we are screwed if he just skirts the tip of Cuba and doesen't travel along the spine or coast as forecast. yikes. should know more by sunrie tomorrow. I'm gonna be up all nigh checking this damn thing!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Notice how the BAMD has a landfall occurring north of Ft. Lauderdale. Not saying that's likely, but it gives you a nice perspective of the type of poleward adjustment that may be in store should Isaac keep Cuban interaction to a minimum and capitalize off of the favorable conditions in the Florida Straights.



Yeah, a stronger storm means further east. I wonder if that is part of the reason for the wiping of the models, corresponding to D-min and D-max.
1397. LargoFl
Quoting FOREX:


A lot of dry air and very low humidity levels to its north right now. Not good for a storm.
and you dont get an eye with a 60 mph storm do you?
Anyone thinks the track will be adjusted to the east this evening?
1399. FOREX
Quoting LargoFl:


If the storm goes near Miami, what is it exactly that will make it go in such a drastically different direction towards the panhandle? Is it a pretty good bet that this change in direction will occur?
Quoting DataNerd:



Inner core starting to look better.


Isaac not to be underestimated.

Hey datanerd.
1401. j2008
Quoting GetReal:


Dry air slot; the COC is under the spinning clouds on the SW side of the dry air slot.
That would definately explain the fact that the convection is rotateing around it and trying to close off..... *sarcasm*. Guess its time to get some fresh crow ready.
Quoting FOREX:


A lot of dry air and very low humidity levels to its north right now. Not good for a storm.


?????????? Na
Quoting A4Guy:


Hey..in SoFla with you, and man, we are screwed if he just skirts the tip of Cuba and doesen't travel along the spine or coast as forecast. yikes. should know more by sunrie tomorrow. I'm gonna be up all nigh checking this damn thing!


Same here in Ft Lauderdale. Made a run to Publix and it was quiet. Got a few things missing to last us if we are homebound for a few days. Better today instead of tomorrow if the track changes and hysteria hits. I'll be sitting back and watching the madness.
1404. LargoFl
Quoting A4Guy:


Hey..in SoFla with you, and man, we are screwed if he just skirts the tip of Cuba and doesen't travel along the spine or coast as forecast. yikes. should know more by sunrie tomorrow. I'm gonna be up all nigh checking this damn thing!
good idea, something is going on tonight
1405. Dakster
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Big Long Range RGB loop shows eye-like feature and jogging back to the north, maybe even neast towards the jutting part of the island - Jaragua Nat'l Park.

I'm a seeing things?


Hey, MLC, meant to say hello the other day. Glad you are still contributing here.
As levi stated earlier the mountains are pulling Issac to the coast, look at the( eye )like feature it's moving almost due North towards Hati. This should be a hurricane before landfall in Hati and will travel over Eastern Cuba for a short time and emerge in the Atlantic as a strong TS. This storm will track toward the SE Florida coast. Any Takers on the track, this will not travel the spine of Cuba, the trough in the Gulf and the one behind it will erode the BH high sending Isaac farther east.
These thunderstorms here in West Palm Beach aren't from Isaac, are they?
1409. j2008
Quoting LargoFl:
and you dont get an eye with a 60 mph storm do you?
Yes, usually a building eye.
1410. WxLogic
G-IV pretty much done with the survey. We'll see how the 06Z and 12Z runs do.
Quoting Chicklit:

Yes, he is. Cancun, I believe.
Anyway, GFS is showing a Mobile landfall.
Also something else (HINT look east).


Oh my....here we go again...
1412. scott39
The W Coast of Fl. will get a bigger surge of water if Isaac is farther W of them. The reason is there is a shelf along the coast that helps push the water in further inland.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Main core of Isaac is splitting from the large disorganized bands to the east... Very interesting to see what happens.


Im expecting Isaac to get better organized tonight since he likes nights better.. As we can tell he is showing a better eye and get a stronger eye as we speak.. Might see more of a NNW movement shortly for a bit IMO.. I think Isaac is going to throw something new at us tonight and into the morning hours..
1414. Hhunter
Quoting 12george1:
These thunderstorms here in West Palm Beach aren't from Isaac, are they?
related
Quoting 12george1:
These thunderstorms here in West Palm Beach aren't from Isaac, are they?


nope
1416. LargoFl
Quoting FOREX:


If the storm goes near Miami, what is it exactly that will make it go in such a drastically different direction towards the panhandle? Is it a pretty good bet that this change in direction will occur?
all eyes will be on the eastern high..
Quoting trey33:


red wine here :)



Red wine helps me follow all the wobbles and shifts. If I were sober, I would go crazy from all the uncertainty.
1419. FOREX
Quoting mcluvincane:


?????????? Na


I was just passing on what the Hurricane expert just said on TWC. Thought it was strange to have 29% humidity levels in the Caribbean.
Some crazy convection going on in the bahamas and over Florida. Didn't even know what was going on and my lights just turned off and on. Fast moving thunderstorm going into North palm beach county.
Now this is interesting:




GFS at 168 hrs wants to put a weak ts into the gulf right on top of the hottest area and into weak shear.
Is it possibe Isaac is startung to become more organized, yet more compact?
Quoting muddertracker:


2 vodka red bulls..one Shocktober (not bad, but Oktoberfet is better) :)

I've just had a cuppa tea. To early to start drinking.
1424. LargoFl
Quoting scott39:
The W Coast of Fl. will get a bigger surge of water if Isaac is farther W of them. The reason is there is a shelf along the coast that helps push the water in further.
yes the beach communities along the gulf coast really need to pay attention to the track
Quoting A4Guy:


Hey..in SoFla with you, and man, we are screwed if he just skirts the tip of Cuba and doesen't travel along the spine or coast as forecast. yikes. should know more by sunrie tomorrow. I'm gonna be up all nigh checking this damn thing!
Oh yeah, all-nighters are in store watching this guy. That much of an equatorward track across the spine of Cuban terrain seems highly unlikely to me, whereas the GFS track seems more probable in my eyes due to a slightly weaker subtropical ridge up north, and the possibility of a more intense cyclone resulting in less of a zonal track (I'd plug my blog again to give a better depiction of my forecast, but I don't want to get banned, so feel free to click my handle hahaa).

Quoting BoroDad17:


Yeah, a stronger storm means further east. I wonder if that is part of the reason for the wiping of the models, corresponding to D-min and D-max.
At this point, diurnal cycles don't really affect Isaac's convective signature. Surely, it's helpful, but it's not enough to change model cycles from poleward to equatorward shifts.
1426. yoboi
Quoting trey33:


red wine here :)





MD 20/20 here, trying to get my vision right...
That's where the center is at....

South Florida could get some heavy nasty squalls, just depends how close the eye gets as well..
Quoting 12george1:
These thunderstorms here in West Palm Beach aren't from Isaac, are they?
Yes
Would be nice if the Cubans would help people out with their radars, but their site seems to be broken or something...
Quoting DataNerd:
Now this is interesting:




GFS at 168 hrs wants to put a weak ts into the gulf right on top of the hottest area and into weak shear.
There appears to be once again another storm headed for the Antilies.Those people can't get a break this season XD.
1432. FOREX
Quoting LargoFl:
all eyes will be on the eastern high..


Learning about steering currents is new for me, growing up in Earthquake country. To me it seems like Isaac will just go right up the East Coast. I have a lot to learn.
1433. LargoFl
Quoting DataNerd:
Now this is interesting:




GFS at 168 hrs wants to put a weak ts into the gulf right on top of the hottest area and into weak shear.
that may be whats coming from africa now
Quoting newportrinative:


nope


actually they are I think
Quoting AussieStorm:
HWRF 90hrs....

Quoting Hurricanes101:


actually they are I think


I stand corrected.....
Quoting WxLogic:
G-IV pretty much done with the survey. We'll see how the 06Z and 12Z runs do.


Much of that data will be in the 00z runs, and nrti noted that 10 dropsondes from it got in to the 18z runs.
Both the GIV mission and the investigation through Isaac are done.
1439. Dakster
Quoting yoboi:


MD 20/20 here, trying to get my vision right...


What is your avatar of, an Armadillo on its back??
Quoting FOREX:


A lot of dry air and very low humidity levels to its north right now. Not good for a storm.

I'm still dealing with the shock of Isaac going fish... which means yet another dual storm, one center runs off NE, the other heads due W. Suddenly I have a migraine.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Nice!Thank you!!!
CAT 1 Humberto damage



Humberto damage on Bolivar exactly a year before Ike

why doesnt this site have the updated models after the new ones are an hour old?
Quoting redwagon:

I'm still dealing with the shock of Isaac going fish... which means yet another dual storm, one center runs off NE, the other heads due W. Suddenly I have a migraine.


?????
Quoting 12george1:
These thunderstorms here in West Palm Beach aren't from Isaac, are they?


Watch the loop:Link

discomblobulated mess on water vapor


the anticyclone all over the place

Interesting that NHC has it going over Central Cuba after hitting eastern cuba. The big picture is very confusing for someone who hasn't seen this system all day.
Quoting yoboi:


MD 20/20 here, trying to get my vision right...


Are you 16 years old? That's the only excuse to pick up the Mad Dog!!!
Look at that...

The main one that matters isn't picking up anything...is it broken, or is Isaac become that dry?!

1449. LargoFl
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Some crazy convection going on in the bahamas and over Florida. Didn't even know what was going on and my lights just turned off and on. Fast moving thunderstorm going into North palm beach county.
in the next couple of days alot of us will be experiencing things like that
Does anyone know of a link to any radar stations in Cuba?
Isaac may be up to 60 knots (70 mph) at 11 p.m. EDT.
Quoting LargoFl:
that may be whats coming from africa now




No according to this its a combination of an existing T wave in the mid atlantic and left over disturbed air from Isaac.

At least I think that's what I am seeing here.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac may be up to 60 knots (70 mph) at 11 p.m. EDT.



Should be, recon was finding 76mph on the se side.
1455. jonelu
We just got a nice gusty thunder storm here in W. Palm Beach...Im guessing more to come.
Quoting charlottefl:
That's where the center is at....


I overlaid satellite imaery on the recon data, and it lines up almost perfectly with the clear slot (a.k.a eye).
hey guys a little bit of history

Gustav was located at 17.5N 72.0W moving NW at 9mph
not too far off from Isaac
Quoting RTSplayer:
Would be nice if the Cubans would help people out with their radars, but their site seems to be broken or something...


It's been broken for like ten years or something...some storm took it out and it was never replaced, I think..I remember some bloggers talking about that a few years back.
Have to see how Isacc handles Cuba. That will be the key.
1460. JDSmith
Expect a boom soon. Hot towers are firing around the COC. Probably an indication that it's becoming better stacked. Those of you watching tonight are in for a treat during Dmin if land interaction doesn't hinder Isaac too much...
Quoting newportrinative:


Same here in Ft Lauderdale. Made a run to Publix and it was quiet. Got a few things missing to last us if we are homebound for a few days. Better today instead of tomorrow if the track changes and hysteria hits. I'll be sitting back and watching the madness.
Same here. We are prepared in North Broward in case Isaac changes his mind. Had a hard time convincing folks at work that the cone is about only the eye and the storm is 600 miles big and we are gonna get some weather. They saw we were out of the cone this morning and wrote it off.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Both the GIV mission and the investigation through Isaac are done.


What was the final verdict
The storms over SE Florida are indirectky related to Isaac and this will be the track the storm takes.
1464. LargoFl
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
CAT 1 Humberto damage



Humberto damage on Bolivar exactly a year before Ike

yeah people say..oh..its only a cat-1 huh...i remember people scoffing at TS Debby also..people are still suffering from her today
Quoting AussieStorm:

I've just had a cuppa tea. To early to start drinking.


Aussie time? What...that's like...what? Hawaii is 7 hours from me...so you'd be another 5? It's like 8 am?
1466. A4Guy
Quoting newportrinative:


Same here in Ft Lauderdale. Made a run to Publix and it was quiet. Got a few things missing to last us if we are homebound for a few days. Better today instead of tomorrow if the track changes and hysteria hits. I'll be sitting back and watching the madness.


I didn't go. Not overly prepared, unfortunatel.y I have batteries..and SOME water..but not much.
After Wilma, I had no power for 8 days (thank god it was cool for much of it), but we only lost water for a day (not even)...so I am keeping fingers corssed. I have a pool if I need water for flushing. :)
Going to freeze empty containers of water so I have ice blocks depending on how things look in the a.m. Have been slowly clearing out food fromthe freezer all week...will make a few more things tomorrow that will do OK in a "cool" refrig for a day or two.
I need some bread, but that's about it - always have cans, granola, etc. in the house...and have a gas side burner for my grill for cooking.
His outflow is where he's headed. South Florida, prepare for a 85+ mph Category 1 Sunday into Monday.
1468. scott39
Fredrick shot off of Cuba as a TD and became a Cat 4 in the GOM. Dont underestimate the GOM potential to develope TCs quickly
1470. Grothar
The season's a bust.
Quoting Chicklit:

Yes, he is. Cancun, I believe.
Anyway, GFS is showing a Mobile landfall.
Also something else (HINT look east).
Did I see that right it just sits north of Mobile ?
1472. yoboi
Quoting Dakster:


What is your avatar of, an Armadillo on its back??


yep look at what it's drinking....
1473. WxLogic
Quoting StormJunkie:


Much of that data will be in the 00z runs, and nrti noted that 10 dropsondes from it got in to the 18z runs.


I agree the 18Z got some, but not quite sure 00Z will get all, but should definitely get more than what 18Z had. I'll keep fingers cross that all made it to the 00Z then. :)
1474. scott39
Quoting Grothar:
The season's a bust.
bustin a move!
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
hey all..long time reader ~ infrequent poster...

I like how this blog ALWAYS ''predicts'' pretty darn accurately and in addition to this, it is predicted BEFORE it is reported on TV...always! I come here every year and ive learned so much. i have a new respect for these storms. there are a lot of talented people here who know what they are talking about. and that brings me to my question:

what would a cat 2 do to a motorhome [not a mobile home but an actual motorhome for road travel ..?] I live in one in Daytona beach about 20 mi or so inland from the coast. this storm is looking downright scary at this moment..


We rode out Gustav in one for work. All I can say about it is...think Wizard Of Oz..."Toto...I don't think we are in LA anymore!". Seriously...DO NOT DO IT!!! I opened the door to check some gear at one point and was sucked out of the thing and was bashed repeatedly against the side. It was a wild couple of days...then Ike hit and it was round two. I wish you the best of luck, hope for your safety, and the safety of everyone in Florida.
Bolavens outflow extends from about 15N to 30N, a massive system. He's been an amazing storm to watch, but he still doesn't rival Typhoon Tip. Also to note, there are much smaller typhoons to the west of both these massive storms .

Bolaven


Tip
anyone think Isaac will track as far west as La. or Texas??
1478. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac may be up to 60 knots (70 mph) at 11 p.m. EDT.


yeap hes starting to wind up at this hour
One thing is for sure - that G-IV dropsonde operator earns his keep. He must look like a one-man mortar squad up in there.


Yes, we are having some nice storms kicked up from Isacc's bands.




More rough weather for the Keys and south peninsular Florida.
Don't know if anyone's interested but some pretty amazing pics coming out from the Dominican Republic...

And Haiti is reporting in when he can..

See the list of the islands on the right.

www.stormcarib.com

-L

Here is a link I found a long time ago. It is a excellent site to see each model lines to most all models early and late. You can pick which storm you want to look at and in either map or satellite version. You can add just one or as many as you like. It will also go up to ten days on each model if they are available by changing the options at the bottom. Also the new ):00 models are listed now on this site, The anvi(gfs) model doesn't change hardly early but now takes it right on Mobile according to this site. Also the gfdl takes it very close there too and the hwfi takes just west of New OrleansLink
23Aug.06pmGMT: 15.9n66.4w (288.1*WNW@16.2knots) 35knots, 1004millibars, TS
24Aug.12amGMT: 16.5n68.0w (291.4*WNW@16.5knots) 40knots, 1002millibars, TS
24Aug.06amGMT: 16.2n69.6w (259.2* West@15.7knots) 40knots, 1000millibars, TS
24Aug.12pmGMT: 15.9n70.4w (248.9* WSW @ 8.3knots) 50knots, 1000millibars, TS
24Aug.06pmGMT's numbers are below, before 25Aug.12amGMT's
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormIsaac for 25August12amGMT
MinimumPressure decreased from 995millibars to 992millibars
MaxSusWinds held to 55knots(63mph)102km/h
Vector changed from 313.1*NWest@15.1mph(24.3km/h) to 311.0*NWest@8.8mph(14.1km/h)

HOG-Holguin :: ICR-Nicaro :: NBW-Guantanamo :: CYA-LesCayes :: JAK-Jacmel :: CBJ-CaboRojo

The southeasternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Isaac's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Isaac's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29kilometres) to a coastline
23Aug.6pmGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for passage ~2.2miles(3.6kilometres)SSWest of AltoVeloIsland (left,nearCBJdumbbell)
24Aug.12amGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for passage over southern LagoDeOviedo (right,nearCBJdumbbell)
24Aug.6amGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for passage 13.2miles(21.3kilometres)NNWest of Providencia
24Aug.12pmGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for passage 6.3miles(10.2kilometres)SSEast of Tortuguero
24Aug.6pmGMT: TS.Isaac was had been headed for passage over Cotes-de-Fer, 28.9miles(46.5kilometres)West of Jacmel
25Aug.12amGMT: TS.Isaac was heading for passage over MouillageFouquet, 18miles(29kilometres)South of Miragoane in ~9hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste iga, xsc, hog, icr, nbw, cya, 18.167n72.951w, jak, 17.439n71.647w-17.706n71.363w, cbj, 15.9n66.4w-16.5n68.0w, 16.5n68.0w-16.2n69.6w, 16.2n69.6w-15.9n70.4w, 15.9n70.4w-16.8n71.4w, 16.8n71.4w-17.3n72.0w, 16.8n71.4w-18.186n73.076w, 18.446n73.09w-18.186n73.076w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Did I see that right it just sits north of Mobile ?


Check out the 96 and 120 hour positions on the latest NHC advisory. Basically, Isaac rolls in somewhere around Ft. Walton Beach, and then sits on Montgomery for awhile. He could be a big rainmaker in interior Alabama - and of course, his reach to the Gulf shores will continue.
Quoting stormhank:
anyone think Isaac will track as far west as La. or Texas??


It could. Right now it is scheduled to hit the Ms./Ala. border according to the best model that is the EURO!
1487. icmoore
Quoting Grothar:
The season's a bust.


Wishful thinking...see y'all in the morning.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Takes someone smarter than me to figure that out.


Quoting RTSplayer:
Look at that...

The main one that matters isn't picking up anything...is it broken, or is Isaac become that dry?!



Said it earlier -check out time in top right hand corner - they are old recorded loops - always seems to have been the way for a while now
1490. code1
And a long term blog post, from before most of current posters here? Go West young man!!!
ouch


it went up from 185 mils to 230 miles


TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
1492. TX2FL
Just read Bastardi's tweet about a "Billion dollar disaster cat 2-3 in the Keys".

What is he smoking?
Quoting AussieStorm:

That is classified as a Major Hurricane. I don't think Isaac will get that strong, even though the SST's and OHC could become rocket fuel once he's in the GOM if he makes it. Without a defined LLC, he could get ripped apart by land interaction.

OHC is LOW
Quoting Grothar:
The season's a bust.
Are you joking?