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Little change to Isaac, but intensification coming; Joyce forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:13 PM GMT on August 23, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac is a large and impressive-looking storm on satellite images, but data from the Hurricane Hunters reveal that Isaac remains a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, as it heads westward across the Eastern Caribbean. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft which completed its mission into Isaac at 8 am EDT found top winds at the surface near 40 mph, and highest winds at their 5,000 foot flight level of 47 mph. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet has found top winds of 47 mph at that altitude. The Hurricane Hunters found a broad area of light winds with a central pressure of 1003 mb. The aircraft did not observe an eyewall trying to form, and recent microwave satellite images also show no signs of an eyewall forming. There does not appear to be much in the way of dry air near the core of Isaac, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, which is a big switch from what we've seen previously. Visible satellite loops show that Isaac has a much more symmetric circular cloud pattern, and has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds, the hallmark of an intensifying storm. These clouds have very cold cloud tops, indicating that the updrafts creating them are quite strong. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that an upper-level pattern of outflow supportive of significant strengthening has developed this morning, with an upper-level outflow channel now well-established to the north, and a new outflow channel opening to the south. Radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows some weak low-level spiral bands that are slowing intensifying and becoming more organized.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Isaac taken from the Puerto Rico radar. Isaac's rain bands are weak, but are starting to take on a more spiraling shape.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac has consistently confounded predictions that it would intensify, but all the potential factors inhibiting intensification seem to have diminished to the point where intensification has to occur. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth, giving the storm a high total heat content to work with. These factors, combined with the favorable upper-level outflow pattern and more symmetric cloud pattern, support intensification, and all of the intensity models except the HWRF model predict intensification of Isaac to a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane by Friday afternoon. The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC predicted a 34% chance that Isaac will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, and a 6% chance it will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane then. By Friday afternoon, Isaac will likely be close enough to Southwest Haiti that the inner core will be disrupted, and the storm will likely be a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba. Once Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern favorable for intensification, with low wind shear due to an upper-level anticyclone over the storm. It will probably take at least 24 hours with the storm's center over water for it to become a hurricane.

Impact of Isaac on the Islands
The south coast of Puerto Rico should see Isaac's heaviest rains and strongest winds beginning near 8 pm EDT tonight, with tropical storm-force winds of 40 - 45 mph potentially affecting the southwest portion of the island. The San Juan airport may be able to stay open during Isaac's passage, but with delays when spiral bands move overhead.

Heavy rains and tropical storm-force winds should arrive on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic late tonight, and the Santo Domingo airport will probably be closed on Friday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches will likely affect the Dominican Republic Thursday through Saturday, creating dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Isaac is potentially a very dangerous storm for Haiti, where 400,000 people still live outside underneath tarps in the wake of the 2010 earthquake. Heavy rains from Isaac will begin on Friday morning in Haiti, and last through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 8 - 12 inches are possible, which will be capable of causing extreme flooding on the vegetation-denuded slopes of Haiti. It will be a major challenge to keep those Haitians living outside safe, if rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches occur.

Impact on Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas
Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas are all at risk of receiving flooding rains and high winds from Isaac. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) model runs for Isaac are fairly unified for the coming three days, showing a west-northwestward track over Southwest Haiti and into Western Cuba. At the 4 - 5 day forecast period for Sunday and Monday, the models have come into better agreement, and have shifted west some. Our best-performing model, the ECMWF, has now shifted Isaac's path more to the east, but still is the westernmost of the models, predicting a landfall for Isaac near the Alabama/Florida border on Wednesday. While we do still have some models predicting a path up the east coast of Florida, model consensus now favors a path up the west coast of Florida through the Gulf of Mexico. The recent reformation of Isaac's center more to the south supports the idea that Isaac will take a track more to the west through the Gulf of Mexico. Since this now means a final landfall for Isaac in the Florida Panhandle is likely, the storm will probably have an extra day over water, increasing the odds that it will become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane before this final landfall. The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly into the storm this afternoon, to do a large-scale dropsonde mission to aid model forecasts. These missions can improve model forecasts by 10 - 20%, so the model runs that will be available early Friday morning should have increased reliability.

Impact on Tampa, Florida
The Republican National Convention begins on Monday in Tampa, Florida. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 15% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds and a 1% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds on Monday. The latest model tracks for Isaac suggests that the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the north will not be strong enough to give Isaac a northeastward component of motion when it crosses Tampa's latitude. Thus, Isaac will have difficulty making a direct hit on Tampa without passing over a considerable amount of land first, making a multi-billion dollar hurricane disaster in Tampa very unlikely. I put the odds of a mass evacuation occurring during the convention at 1%; a limited evacuation of people in the Tampa Bay area living in mobile homes in low-lying areas is probably about 5 - 10 % likely. I have detailed information on Tampa's storm surge vulnerability in a post from last week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Joyce.

Tropical Storm Joyce forms in the Central Atlantic
The season's tenth named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Joyce, has formed in the Central Atlantic. Joyce's formation on August 23 puts 2012 in a tie for second place with 1995 for earliest formation date of the season's tenth storm. Only 2005 had an earlier appearance of the season's tenth storm, when Tropical Storm Jose formed at 2 pm EDT on August 22. None of the models show that Joyce will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it may be a storm that will affect Bermuda. It is possible that Joyce will complicate the track forecast for Isaac 4 - 5 days from now, when the storms may be close enough together to interact.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting angiest:


Ah yes, Lili. Strong cat 4 until maybe a day before landfall, then the core collapsed. Close call on that one.


Close call. We lost electric for four days, saving grace was it was early October and cool days, not 100 degrees out. Of course the bad part was it was Fair and Rodeo days, and we were off school to be able to go. I think teachers hate losing free days more than the kids! *G*
Splash Location: 15.77N 66.59W
Splash Time: 19:20Z


1004mb (Surface)
Quoting MississippiWx:


Recon had ascended when they got that reading. They are leaving.

That was a quick pass... Didnt investigate Isaac, much.
Quoting louisianaboy444:


I see the center right around 15.3 N


Yep, I see it in that area too, but looks like an eye wall might build up starting just below 15N.
1507. GetReal
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Look at 14.8N/66.8W and tell me what you see.



I dunno but it does have clouds wrapped all the way around it moving in a counter-clockwise direction... But I'm sure it isn't anything to concern yourself with...

THERE IS NOTHING TO SEE HERE FOLKS!!! Just keep moving on along... s)

wheres the center? it looks like the whole thing is spinning around one big area
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Freaking recon equipment failures...

yep. was wondering why it would leave the storm already.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Issac's core is so disorganized, it's almost pissing me off as much as Ernesto lol.


I completely agree. Lol I have been asking why he wont organize. Conditions are so good
Comment 1492:

You've broken the blog...Please edit or remove your comment.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


I have no problems with the track but Issac seems to be getting much stronger right now. I bet we have a hurricane at 11pm. Also wouldn't rule out a cat.2 100mph storm making landfall in Haiti.

Notice this big blob to the south now starting to wrap around Issac's center.
LOL at your hyping earlier today.  Not sure what weather tools you are using but i'd head to Home Depot and pick up some new ones guy!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Simply put, if Isaac strengthens, south Florida is screwed, if it remains weak, it should be a southern Keys/Florida Straights event.


I'm thinking that's why the models continue to shift. Despite looking impressive earlier today, dry air looks like it's still causing big problems for it and the weaker it stays the less poleward it moves...
Alright who was the wise guy that stretched the blog?
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Isaac definitely not living up to the legacy of "I" storms...Ivan...Ike...Irene...Isabelle...

YET!!!

120 hrs GFS...
Quoting MississippiWx:


Recon had ascended when they got that reading. They are leaving.
Oh, can't say I'm surprised; Isaac is still so disorganized a sub-1000mb is rather unrealistic.
Wouldn't be surprised to see another small westward adjustment with the track at 5 pm. Nothing major until the G-IV data tonight. 
1518. snotly
Ike was just as bad.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Issac's core is so disorganized, it's almost pissing me off as much as Ernesto lol.
1519. Buhdog
Quoting indianrivguy:


just say no


What up river guy... been awhile.

Just to show you how much off of florida the forecast has become...

Link
1520. Joe21
Does anyone fail to relize that even if the storms rides the west coast of fl or near it that people on the east coast will get the worse of the storm.just indications pount to gulf of mex does not mean the east coast of fl is out of the woids.Just be clear on that.

And another thing it seems like of you want the storm to come to your area so you can prove your right.Lets be real the storm goes wherever mother nature wants it to go not you.Lets not get people off guard.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Alright who was the wise guy that stretched the blog?
1492....
Quoting stormpetrol:


Yep, I see it in that area too, but looks like an eye wall might build up starting just below 15N.

Microwave?
It was post 1492...
1524. CJ5
Quoting KeyWestbeachcomber:
Key west here...ya'll think I should get some groceries in? Any input appreciated,thanks.


Considering all major model put the storm in your front door, yes, I would make some preparations.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yep she was one of my evacuations but she didn't come this far though. Sitting south of Port Arthur as a major leaving seemed like a good idea at the time. :)

She came right over me...actually got to see the eyewall...it was cool. Just very grateful it did not make landfall as a 4. Did enough damage and spawned lots of tornadoes though.
Id there another center.forming?
I'm not liking the new model runs--a bit! PC Beach is currently smack-dab in the center of the doom-cone...and whats with the wicked curve to the Northeast right after landfall?
Blog jacked up.

This looks like a mid level storm cruising the Central Caribbean

Rough day for Taiwan.



Meanwhile, the costliest hurricane ever to hit the United States was born in one hour seven years ago.

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG
WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY SHIPS...INDICATE THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED RECON WINDS OF 39 KT AT 800
FT...AND SHIP A8CI9 REPORTING 30-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 18Z IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK...BUT IMPROVING AS
A SMALL ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/07. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN A LARGE CLEAR AREA NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL RECON WINDS CLEARLY
INDICATE A BROAD BUT OTHERWISE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES DEVELOP WITHIN THE
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THEN ROTATE WESTWARD OUT
FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY THE
GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS...BUT SOME RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TD-12 IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS SHOWS UP BEST IN 500 MB
DATA...AND THEN DISAPPEARS BELOW AND ABOVE THAT LEVEL. BY 36-48
HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE
WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHEN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND HOW SOON
CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AFTER THAT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND SSTS WILL BE NEAR 31C UNDER THE
CENTER...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY
THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A
PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY
INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A
REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE
DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS
SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH
THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE
THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 23.2N 75.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.7N 78.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W 65 KT

$$

conditions seriously dont get much better! the only thing i can see thats stopping this thing from blowing up its its huge circulation. nothing else...get your stuff tg isaac...ive had it!
Quoting ILikeIke:

wheres the center? it looks like the whole thing is spinning around one big area

I see a cluster of T-storms NW of Haiti...

Quoting cyclonekid:
Comment 1492:

You've broken the blog...Please edit or remove your comment.
Oops. Don't know how that happened. 
Fixed. 
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Right now, the Euro lies well to the west of model consensus. However, the models are consistently shifting slightly to the west each cycle, so its possible they're slowly catching on to something the Euro has seen all along. It just doesn't make sense that such a reliable model would perform so terribly. I still think its a bit too far west, but don't be surprised to see models keep trending that way.


Ummm wasn't the prior EURO run having a landfall in the Far West Florida Panhandle? Maybe not,Ive been seeing too many model solutions and could be wrong.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Center is exposed to view @ 15.6N 67.5



Small blowup of convection to its NE may it can get it to intensify and wrap around the LLC.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&pr oduct=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

san juan radar shows what looks like a complex of storms that seems to be COC clearly moving WNW.. NW.. but storm is very unimpressive on radar..
The Euro has been a bit inconsistent, the GFS has been much more consistent; which is why I would still lean more towards it
1541. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
350 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CHARLESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 344 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS RECEIVED
REPORTS OF TWO WATER SPOUTS NEAR THE COAST OF EDISTO ISLAND
MOVING TOWARD LAND.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
EDISTO ISLAND BY 400 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 3254 8018 3255 8021 3252 8025 3254 8026
3251 8032 3252 8033 3252 8035 3250 8032
3249 8033 3256 8039 3265 8026 3256 8016
3255 8017
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 084DEG 8KT 3252 8027
am starting too wounder if we been following the worng center


i think its at 14N
1543. DVG
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Wouldn't be surprised to see another small westward adjustment with the track at 5 pm. Nothing major until the G-IV data tonight. 


I was just looking at the sat presentation and the track. To me it is tracking south but parallel to the official track.

If correct, it would barely scrape Haiti and landfall at Pilon in Cuba.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

THE CENTER IS LOCATED AT 15.7 NORTH. RECON CONFIRMS THIS. ITS NOT MOVING WSW, DUE WEST. OR ANYTHING THAT YOU THINK.

WHAT YOU SEE IS A BUNCH OF BS. All the time.

Finished venting...
Now you can meet my Ignore list. along with your little friend that is thinking the same bs as you.


You have been reported
Quoting cyclonekid:
1492....
columbus sailed the ocean blue!
1547. CJ5
Quoting TexNowNM:
IF Isaac were to Hit the Tx/La border what kind of time frame would be involved. Some of you are pretty good at calculating these sorts of things. Yes, I know that is an outlier destination- just asking for a reasonable time frame.


Tuesday/Wednesday
No intensification until this is resolved.

Days ago the 75-22 door was going to be open for Isaac, but he couldn't get his dynamics together for the exit and a CONUS miss.

Now, the 80-20 window is open, beckoning him, he's still confused and the window may close, the subT is retreating, tomorrow is critical and again if he misses his exit.....Westward Ho!
1550. kwgirl
Quoting LargoFl:
sure is a big storm in area alright
Everyone is talking about how big this storm is yet do you remember how large Andrew was? Yet the destruction area was not very big and the storm was more wind than rain. We look at cloud cover and think what a mess, when sometimes that's all it is, cloud cover. I like hearing from Puerto Rico and Antilles to see what they have to say what occurred when Isaac came over.
That was the 2nd time a comment I've posted messed up. Must be my computer. 
Quoting Hurricanes101:
The Euro has been a bit inconsistent, the GFS has been much more consistent; which is why I would still lean more towards it

The ECMWF has shown a major hurricane hitting Louisiana for the past three days. How is that inconsistent?
Be back later i'm on minecraft lol see you all at 5!!:)
Quoting tornadolarkin:


I completely agree. Lol I have been asking why he wont organize. Conditions are so good
Seriously, unless Isaac was a hurricane when it came into the eastern Caribbean, we can't really act surprised that it fails to get any better organized though. It's just a massive headache when you have environmental conditions conducive for rapid intensification and the cyclone can barely keep a closed circulation.

Just the trials and tribulations of the eastern Caribbean.
well, this'll be off the scope soon....there's no doppler in the DR that I know of so unless anyone here from Santo Domingo who has a portable NEXRAD we can borry.......

Ding! Ladies and Gentlemen, we are now passing the longitude of Puerto Rico well south and continuing westbound. Enjoy your ride.
So if my math is right(don't count on it)...Isaac has moved WSW since 2pm?? Is that right? At 2 it was at 16N..now it's at 15.7N...
Yeah, Isaac is a hot mess. A hurricane before interaction with Hispaniola seems unlikely.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF has shown a major hurricane hitting Louisiana for the past three days. How is that inconsistent?


um, it hasnt been as consistent as the GFS, the Euro keeps shifting further west, not buying it
1560. LargoFl
Quoting louisianaboy444:


You have been reported
so much drama on this blog
You might be a troll if:

You post an unpopular forecast/opinion/forecast and abrasively suggest that you've been right all along over the past few days, when you have under five comments total associated with your account.
IMHO Isaac will bomb tonight once that CoC sorts it self out we will also see the Nw movement start west coast Florida were not out of the woods yet!
1564. Levi32
History strongly favors either east Florida scrape or a deep penetration into the west-central gulf.

All tropical cyclones passing within 65nm of the 18z NHC position of Isaac during August and September:

1565. JLPR2
Isaac shrunk, compared to yesterday when it was 500+ miles from north to south, today it is 449miles and from east to west yesterday it was 800+miles today it is 674miles.
1566. A4Guy
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Just to put things in perspective…


Ernesto 2006 discussion when he was at the same longitude as Isaac. At this point Ernest was expect to travel into the NW Caribbean and enter the GOM. Of course, it ended up traveling over Cuba and up the middle of Florida.
THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER CUBA. SOME SPREAD APPEARS
IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS BUILDING THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD.



Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7722


Thanks for that. I mentioned the same thing earlier. We were supposed to have a major cane hit SoFla, but Ernesto traveled right along the coast of Cuba, and basically fell apart. We had less rain and wind than a typical afternoon t-storm when he finally made "landfall."
Isaac about 22-24 miles south of next forecast point.
i really think Isaac is at 14N and not where the nhc has it
1569. intampa
hmm some say isaac getting slowly organized some say still falling apart and looking worse than ever. im so ignorant i cant tell the difference but still fun and informative to read all the post and see all the graphics
Quoting cat6band:
So if my math is right(don't count on it)...Isaac has moved WSW since 2pm?? Is that right? At 2 it was at 16N..not it's 15.7N...

NHC's Center fix was a Lie. It was at 15.6 when NHC updated. Now its at 15.7
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
That was the 2nd time a comment I've posted messed up. Must be my computer. 
1492 lol columbus sailed the ocean blue
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF has shown a major hurricane hitting Louisiana for the past three days. How is that inconsistent?


It has flipped flopped a bit...but I think it has done the best with the overall track...Still thinking this will travel south of DR and on the Southern Coast of Cuba but we will see....Euro also forseen this storm staying weak
I do see where the center could be just SW of PR

It seems like Isaac is struggling with dry air slots but not sure where it's coming from as I don't see any ULL's nearby now on the water vapor. Any thoughts on what's causing the ebb and flow of Isaac's convection?


Good afternoon all... Isaac just looks... terrible.
1577. LargoFl
Quoting scott39:
The GFS has swung from an East Coast landfall to pensacola. I would call that a significant swing.


OK Im wrong as usual. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF has shown a major hurricane hitting Louisiana for the past three days. How is that inconsistent?
Because it was showing a Panhandle landfall last night and is now showing a TX/LA landfall. Actually the GFS has also been a little inconsistent because it went from the East Coast of FL. and has been trending west now into the Eastern Gulf. At this point we really need some good data from the G-IV Mission.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon may be going to do this part of the synoptic mission:




That alleged center fix is an optical illusion easily dispelled by the "Base Velocity" tool on the radar.

The CoC is nowhere near that fix, and I mean not even within 2 degrees of it...



The real circulation is off the screen far to the SSW of the red/green split at the edge of the range...


and

Oh well, removed the images because they weren't working.
1582. GoWVU
Quoting Tazmanian:
i really think Isaac is at 14N and not where the nhc has it


Taz: Why do you say that??
Mabye Isaac will be like a BIG bonnie from '10. Scrape South Florida
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


if that were the case joyce would not be forecast to go over bermuda...come on..there is a weakness west of bermuda..almost all models see it


it seemed like a good response for the models shifting west but I'm probably wrong since I'm not really an expert, just an avid weather enthusiast who knows just enough to get into trouble. :0
1585. LargoFl
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
That was the 2nd time a comment I've posted messed up. Must be my computer. 


Could be a direct effect of Global Warming
Quoting Hurricanes101:


um, it hasnt been as consistent as the GFS, the Euro keeps shifting further west, not buying it


Actually, the EMCWF shifted slightly east today. It's the GFS that has trended west.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I do see where the center could be just SW of PR

I think you're onto something. I definitely see a rotation, and it has to be low level since the mid level rotation is further to the south.
Quoting Buhdog:


What up river guy... been awhile.

Just to show you how much off of florida the forecast has become...

Link


It has, good to see you once again. Was gone nearly a year, glad to be back.
Quoting GoWVU:


Taz: Why do you say that??




i this have that feeling



i think its at 14N
Quoting Jedkins01:



It's easy to jump to that conclusion, but you can't forecast where a storm will be when it reaches point:X2 based on the current data now for the starting point:X0. Yes a westerly path right now into the Central gulf may seem like its plowing into a ridge instead of the weakness over Florida, but that's based on initial conditions. The models that bring it west believe the greatest weakness will be over the central gulf by then and ridging over Florida instead. The euro isn't showing it plowing through a ridge, if it was then you could throw it because that would be a major and obvious error. But it's not.


I don't want to be confrontational here, but just because you expected this storm to move into Florida doesn't mean it will, I know you know that's true, but sometimes you need to get back to the basics in order to have balanced perspective. The fact is Isaac has about the same change of hitting the Central gulf coast right now as hitting Florida/eastern gulf. Yes there really is that much uncertainty, and the recent model shifts prove that all the more.


However, the proof of why in reality is based on the intensity of Isaac. We don't even know if Issac will even survive right now, yet an eastern gulf landfall is entirely dependent on it reaching hurricane strength or at least a strong tropical storm by the time it impacts the islands. If Isaac stays weak it will continue to go further west because that is how tropical cyclones work. A shallower tropical cyclone will travel farther west, a deeper one will feel the pull to turn north more. That is the biggest variable alone. I don't know about you but I don't have the greatest confidence in Isaac intensifying. The mid level center is continuing to slide southwest and Issac is continuing to become more disorganized regardless of how favorable conditions are for it to strengthen.


Yes I too am very confused as to why Issac isn't organizing as all conventional understanding of meteorology tells you Isaac should at least be steadily strengthening by now if not quickly. However, the fact is, it's not. If Issac stays weak, the eastern gulf path will become the less likely scenario because a weaker storm will be much less likely to turn north into the eastern gulf. However if Issac does finally strengthen, and becomes a hurricane in the Caribbean, it will likely turn northwest, and I would expect models to shift back east. Models or computer systems and the output is attempting to find the most logical solution. Well a weaker storm that has been jogging wsw repeatedly will cause the models to respond west.

You might think they are "out to lunch" but examine the situation further and you'll find it makes more sense as to why they have.


It will be very interesting to see if the ECMWF was right all along, keeping Isaac weak and moving it into the Central or East Central GOM instead of into or very near the Florida peninsula.

If this turns out to verify, undoubtedly an intricate analysis of the data will be undertaken in order to find out what the Euro saw that none of the other models saw. This, whatever it is, will then formulate a tool which could lead to better modeling forecast in the future, particularly for unusually complex systems like Isaac.
Quoting mojofearless:


Actually, the EMCWF shifted slightly east today. It's the GFS that has trended west.


Euro just went to LA/TX border, much further west than it has been
1594. K8eCane
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Be back later i'm on minecraft lol see you all at 5!!:)



OMG My son LOVES that game
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

NHC's Center fix was a Lie. It was at 15.6 when NHC updated. Now its at 15.7


Was a lie??
uh oh....seeing low level rotation SW of PR, looking obvious, but we'll see

Quoting mojofearless:


Actually, the EMCWF shifted slightly east today. It's the GFS that has trended west.


UM lol
Quoting Tazmanian:
i really think Isaac is at 14N and not where the nhc has it


You need to look at the PR radar loop instead of the sat and their call will all make sense.
Quoting Tazmanian:



report for posting off topic photos durning storms


LOL

Lighten up Frances....
Quoting RTSplayer:


That alleged center fix is an optical illusion easily dispelled by the "Base Velocity" tool on the radar.

The CoC is nowhere near that fix, and I mean not even within 2 degrees of it...





The real circulation is off the screen far to the SSW of the red/green split at the edge of the range...


and





your rader are not showing up



when posting NWS raders you have too ues the Standard Version
Quoting RitaEvac:
uh oh....seeing low level rotation SW of PR, looking obvious, but we'll see



Seems to be moving slightly north of west, if that is indeed the center.
Lol, the ECMWF isn't even a viable option, I don't even know why it's getting much credence om the blog.

Will be more than happy to choke on crow if it verifies though.
Be back later.
1606. WoodyFL
Quoting ILikeIke:
1492 lol columbus sailed the ocean blue


And grothar in the boat behind him. j/k you know wer'e kidding.
Quoting cirrocumulus:


Even after all that, the EURO is the Best overall and the other models are trending west now!

With all do respect, over the past two days you post the same thing just different wording. U live on the central gulf coast I assume by what u say in every post. I know you want it to go west and it just might. But please stop reminding me every 20 minutes. Let's all wait and see. I lurk for information because I live in Sarasota. If you want the storm that bad then u can have it. I'll take sunny skies with a nice breeze over Isaac any day. Back to the shadows.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Look at 14.8N/66.8W and tell me what you see.


Kinda looks like a runaway hot tower near 15 north right around where the COC looks to be. Interesting....
12z GFS Ensembles at 132 hours:

Center is just NW of the small red ball of convection. Appearance wise, Isaac is nearly back to where we started this morning with two areas of convection.

1612. angiest
Quoting RitaEvac:
uh oh....seeing low level rotation SW of PR, looking obvious, but we'll see



Nothing is clear on the velocity scan. And at that range you are looking pretty high up.
1613. LargoFl

Category One Hurricane: Sustained Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr).
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage
People, livestock, and pets struck by flying or falling debris could be injured or killed. Older (mainly pre-1994 construction) mobile homes could be destroyed, especially if they are not anchored properly as they tend to shift or roll off their foundations. Newer mobile homes that are anchored properly can sustain damage involving the removal of shingle or metal roof coverings, and loss of vinyl siding, as well as damage to carports, sunrooms, or lanais. Some poorly constructed frame homes can experience major damage, involving loss of the roof covering and damage to gable ends as well as the removal of porch coverings and awnings. Unprotected windows may break if struck by flying debris. Masonry chimneys can be toppled. Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof shingles, vinyl siding, soffit panels, and gutters. Failure of aluminum, screened-in, swimming pool enclosures can occur. Some apartment building and shopping center roof coverings could be partially removed. Industrial buildings can lose roofing and siding especially from windward corners, rakes, and eaves. Failures to overhead doors and unprotected windows will be common. Windows in high-rise buildings can be broken by flying debris. Falling and broken glass will pose a significant danger even after the storm. There will be occasional damage to commercial signage, fences, and canopies. Large branches of trees will snap and shallow rooted trees can be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in power outages that could last a few to several days. Hurricane Dolly (2008) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 1 winds and impacts to South Padre Island, Texas.
Quoting hurricanehanna:

She came right over me...actually got to see the eyewall...it was cool. Just very grateful it did not make landfall as a 4. Did enough damage and spawned lots of tornadoes though.


I bet that was neat. Of course the only hurricane that passed over my head was at 2am. Lol. Couldn't see a thing in Humberto. :)
Quoting RitaEvac:
uh oh....seeing low level rotation SW of PR, looking obvious, but we'll see



Hmmm…I'd be surprise to see a center relocation that far north, but it would throw a HUGE wrench into the track if it did. Not much thunderstorm activity there based on IR. Perhaps one of many vortexes?
Isaac just has way too much competition right now. God knows how many smaller vertices are embedded with his giant circulation.
Quoting louisianaboy444:


UM lol


How is that funny, fellow Louisianian? I've been watching the Euro for days - it had NOLA in the crosshairs for a number of runs, and now it's showing more of a panhandle hit. Which is east last time I checked. Furthermore, the GFS has shifted west over the past few days. So what am I missing here? I did actually sleep, so maybe I missed something.
intresting to see that other people other than me agree with me that the LLCOC is near 15N/14.9N or near that area


I am not surprised that recon failed when I found out what plane it was (AF300) this plane has a history for not working sometimes and for having to fly back home during missions
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


No. Just... no.


Quoting stormtopz1:


thats and old map. the new models come out now for a texas/louisianna landfall.


No. Just... no.

LOL Im not gonna post anything for a while and just enjoy this and get some good belly laughs.
this thing looks like it wants to decouple... just sayin...
Quoting WoodyFL:


And grothar in the boat behind him. j/k you know wer'e kidding.
lol and jonny depp behind that
Quoting MississippiWx:
12z GFS Ensembles at 132 hours:



Dang...that's def more west than I expected....
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, the ECMWF isn't even a viable option, I don't even know why it's getting much credence om the blog.

Will be more than happy to choke on crow if it verifies though.

Not sure how you're getting it's not viable...it's definitely possible if the storm misses the trough.
Quoting emguy:


Check out the radar and see...There is other rotation...suggesting the system is either highly elongated, or we have a binary low. This storm is a hot mess right now.


Were you referring to what looked like a weak COC near the SW tip of PR?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, the ECMWF isn't even a viable option, I don't even know why it's getting much credence om the blog.

Will be more than happy to choke on crow if it verifies though.


Look at the Doctor's post and you'll see why.

On average, it beats the NHC and the GFS after 72 hours.
Quoting CJ5:


Considering all major model put the storm in your front door, yes, I would make some preparations.
Thank you...I haven't had to stock up much since Wilma creamed the island.I have a feeling the stores are being gutted as I type.
1629. angiest
Quoting cat6band:


Dang...that's def more west than I expected....


Quoting mojofearless:


How is that funny, fellow Louisianian? I've been watching the Euro for days - it had NOLA in the crosshairs for a number of runs, and now it's showing more of a panhandle hit. Which is east last time I checked. Furthermore, the GFS has shifted west over the past few days. So what am I missing here? I did actually sleep, so maybe I missed something.


Sorry I did not clarify I was not laughing at you I was laughing because the 12Z Euro has shifted WAY west with its track...that is why I did not get why you said east... lol
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, the ECMWF isn't even a viable option, I don't even know why it's getting much credence om the blog.

Will be more than happy to choke on crow if it verifies though.


thank you me as well....someone else said it earlier too...its not going to RUN INTO THE GD ridge over the southern plains for cryin out loud....track favors are north or straight west from haiti and beyond...get it through your heads.....im going to romanellis for tequila and steak to calm myself!
hi, could someone link the latest animated GFS model for me. I'm at work and don't have time to search it.
thanks!
1633. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Meanwhile, the costliest hurricane ever to hit the United States was born in one hour seven years ago


Yes and the costliest one before that made landfall 20 years ago tomorrow.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Big one of what??


Dont quote him and bait him like I did lol..mistake on my part....admin should be in shortly
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Were you referring to what looked like a weak COC near the SW tip of PR?


Quoting Hurricanes101:


Euro just went to LA/TX border, much further west than it has been


Ahhhh - So I DID miss something. Thanks for the clarification. Silly me - see what happens when I actually try to go do things all functional and real time- real life and such. I leave for two hours and Argh! I miss the subtle shifts. My apologies to Louisiana boy 44 for my bewilderment.
Quoting mojofearless:


How is that funny, fellow Louisianian? I've been watching the Euro for days - it had NOLA in the crosshairs for a number of runs, and now it's showing more of a panhandle hit. Which is east last time I checked. Furthermore, the GFS has shifted west over the past few days. So what am I missing here? I did actually sleep, so maybe I missed something.


You should check the 12z Euro, which shows a Texas/Louisiana border landfall...as a major, I think.

Here's the Link
From Firsthand Weather
Quoting ILikeIke:
lol and jonny depp behind that
Captain Sparrow
Maybe it's so favorable that any one vortex can't absorb the others? I'm running out of ideas.
Quoting RitaEvac:
uh oh....seeing low level rotation SW of PR, looking obvious, but we'll see



With that radar, I wouldn't be surprised to see Isaac as a naked swirl sometime early tonight, then all of the sudden he gets his act together late tonight. we shall see.
Another 12z GFS Ensemble shows Joyce a lot stronger:

Land interaction could be Isaacs best friend. A lot of times when tropical systems traverse over land there core comes together quite nice on the other side
1645. Stats56
Quoting Bluestorm5:
It was post 1492...


Just hide it, then np
Quoting RTSplayer:


Look at the Doctor's post and you'll see why.

On average, it beats the NHC and the GFS after 72 hours.


So does the BAMM model after 120... just saying
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Maybe it's so favorable that any one vortex can't absorb the others? I'm running out of ideas.




i have a idea whats send JFV and jason out there and they can tell us what the storm is doing
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not sure how you're getting it's not viable...it's definitely possible if the storm misses the trough which it seems to be doing right now.
Seems to be doing right now? Lol wut?

The Euro is the one and only model that has the cyclone moving into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. At this point in time, that solution just by no means is likely, unless it remains very weak and embedded within shallow zonal steering to the point that it cruises along the southern Cuban coast.
Quoting doabarrelroll:


Yes and the costliest one before that made landfall 20 years ago tomorrow.
Remember it well
Quoting Tazmanian:




i have a idea whats send JFV and jason out there and they can tell us what the storm is doing


Sounds great TAZ, lol.
that spin on PR radar is not the LLCOC guys
1653. emguy
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Were you referring to what looked like a weak COC near the SW tip of PR?


I certainly was. Radar shows it, and satellite does support it. This is either an elongated system, a binary system, or we have a complete decouple going down before our eyes. Which actually wouldn't be a complete shock. There was the highly unexpected and unforcasted decouple of Hurricane Chris near Puerto Rico (I want to say that was in 2006).
Quoting KeyWestwx:
hi, could someone link the latest animated GFS model for me. I'm at work and don't have time to search it.
thanks!


click here
1655. dearmas
G-IV Mission what time does it start?? TIA
In two hours we will have the 18z GFS to discuss.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Meanwhile, the costliest hurricane ever to hit the United States was born in one hour seven years ago.

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG
WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY SHIPS...INDICATE THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED RECON WINDS OF 39 KT AT 800
FT...AND SHIP A8CI9 REPORTING 30-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 18Z IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK...BUT IMPROVING AS
A SMALL ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/07. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN A LARGE CLEAR AREA NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL RECON WINDS CLEARLY
INDICATE A BROAD BUT OTHERWISE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES DEVELOP WITHIN THE
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THEN ROTATE WESTWARD OUT
FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY THE
GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS...BUT SOME RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TD-12 IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS SHOWS UP BEST IN 500 MB
DATA...AND THEN DISAPPEARS BELOW AND ABOVE THAT LEVEL. BY 36-48
HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE
WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHEN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND HOW SOON
CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AFTER THAT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND SSTS WILL BE NEAR 31C UNDER THE
CENTER...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY
THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A
PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY
INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A
REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE
DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS
SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH
THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE
THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 23.2N 75.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.7N 78.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W 65 KT

$$



Hard to believe that poor looking TD became a hurricane that caused significant damage in Miami in so short a period of time..
Quoting angiest:




That's way too much time in those warm gulf waters for my taste.
Quoting IceCoast:
Rough day for Taiwan.





Any day that involves a pinhole eye is likely not a good one...unless you're a chaser!
Has Isaac done a u-turn and is now heading east?
Quoting watchingnva:
this thing looks like it wants to decouple... just sayin...
Not sure it was ever coupled to begin with. :)
1662. LargoFl
These missions can improve model forecasts by 10 - 20%, so the model runs that will be available early Friday morning should have increased reliability.
Quoting RitaEvac:




If anything this could be the old LLC racing off to the WNW...with the main vorticity and convergence further south with the MLC around 15.3-15.6 this is where the new center will likely take residence.
Hoping that euro track is just an anomaly of some sort. Has Isaac coming right over my house. Guess I'll be monitoring the situation more closely now as I thought it was going into Florida. Wow I hate hurricanes.
Quoting sporteguy03:
In two hours we will have the 18z GFS to discuss.


And blog mayhem to go with it.
Quoting KeyWestwx:
hi, could someone link the latest animated GFS model for me. I'm at work and don't have time to search it.
thanks!


Can find the GFS either on Huffman's page, or the NCEP page under models. That link will save you from having to search for most anything you need for tracking and makes it easy to navigate the various imagery, wind, and model sites.

So Isaac is looking pretty rough ATM. Also see that recon must have had some issues with equipment and are headed home. They never really got in to the southern side of the storm at all. A little disappointing.
Can we confirm wth is the swirl close to the SW portion of Puerto Rico? is this the real deal or not. Because if it is then the NHC track makes sense and the models, if that aint it, this thing is totally unorganized and going hellava lot farther west.
1669. LargoFl
1670. nolajet
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Has Isaac done a u-turn and is now heading east?


That would shut this blog down... however, I didn't see that when I looked.
Planning our strategy before heading out to TS Isaac

Peple who are risking their lives for keep us informed thanks
Will be interesting to see what the data will show in advance of the 5:00 advisory discussion. The current NHC plot assumes hurricane status before Haiti. If his circulation remains disorganized, any interaction with Haiti will disrupt it more than currently anticipated and everything will certainly have to be recalculated at that point. His window for better organization before Hispanola is closing.......Then again, he did very well last evening in terms of convective bursts. The next 24 hours are critical.
What Isaac would be working with in the Gulf:

Geeeezzzzzzzzz,Getting nasty in here over a storms track? Please people,Lets keep it all nice.Differing opinions are one thing...but the tone seems nasty? No?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
that spin on PR radar is not the LLCOC guys


I don't know. Looks like that spin could be heading right toward the Cayman Islands.


;)
1676. TXCWC
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, the ECMWF isn't even a viable option, I don't even know why it's getting much credence om the blog.

Will be more than happy to choke on crow if it verifies though.



#1 because it is without dispute 1 of the top 2 models in use today - the other being the GFS. If it were the NOGAPS or CMC as the lone major dynamic model showing a more west solution then you would probally have a point in the lack of viability.

#2 while most models were showing an EAST or SOUTH FLORIDA hit the Euro WAS showing a North Gulf Coast anywhere from Louisiania to Pensacola hit. Model trends the last day or so have come into much better agreement with what Euro was showing. Euro has now shifted even further west - will the models continue to follow suit and trend further west??
Quoting dearmas:
G-IV Mission what time does it start?? TIA


Already airborne. Been taking obs for the past 3 hours.
1678. angiest
Quoting RitaEvac:
Can we confirm wth is the swirl close to the SW portion of Puerto Rico? is this the real deal or not. Because if it is then the NHC track makes sense and the models, if that aint it, this thing is totally unorganized and going hellava lot farther west.


I personally don't see anything resembling a COC in the base velocity scans out of PR.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Seems to be doing right now? Lol wut?

The Euro is the one and only model that has the cyclone moving into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. At this point in time, that solution just by no means is likely, unless it remains very weak and embedded within shallow zonal steering to the point that it cruises along the southern Cuban coast.

Yeah...don't ask me where my head was just then, lol. I removed it as soon as re-reading it.

As for the ECMWF, it shows the Bermuda ridge re-building as the trough lifts out. This would force it on a more westward path as the model shows.
Quoting presslord:
These missions can improve model forecasts by 10 - 20%, so the model runs that will be available early Friday morning should have increased reliability.


Just exactly how does that work? What kind of data? What do the models do with it?



:)
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:


click here
Thanks!
He looks like an open wave
1683. Levi32
Keep in mind the recon last night found the mid-level center as low as the 850mb level without a surface reflection. Puerto Rico radar hints that the recon may have found a mid-level center again this afternoon, with the surface reflection still displaced northward. Either that, or the surface circulation has two lobes, one south, and one north. There's definitely something closer to Puerto Rico though. It might be an extension trough that harmlessly rotates around the circulation and becomes nothing, but there's definitely something messy still going on with Isaac.
Looks like Isaac is starting to move more poleward?

Link
1685. dearmas
Quoting StormJunkie:


Already airborne. Been taking obs for the past 3 hours.


oops Thanks ;)
1686. CJ5
If you watch the RGB, you can clearly see the rotation of the lower level clouds. Based on that, it appears to me that the "center" is under the newest small convection blow up, around 15N.
Quoting emguy:


I certainly was. Radar shows it, and satellite does support it. This is either an elongated system, a binary system, or we have a complete decouple going down before our eyes. Which actually wouldn't be a complete shock. There was the highly unexpected and unforcasted decouple of Hurricane Chris near Puerto Rico (I want to say that was in 2006).


Except that you forgot to check base velocity tool.

If you had done that, you'd see no "circulation" exists at that point, and all the winds are blowing away from the radar station.
1688. FLSurf
First time. Wahoooooooo! Go North!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Just exactly how does that work? What kind of data? What do the models do with it?



:)


it's just like vitamins...they eat the data....and it makes them stronger ;-)
Quoting LargoFl:
Cute!
The EURO shows two lows at 24 hrs. So it mat take awhile to get going.

Quoting stormchaser19:
Planning our strategy before heading out to TS Isaac

Peple who are risking their lives for keep us informed thanks

Do you know if the HHs have said anything about last night's run, around the water cooler?
Ok just went to Publix and *gasp* people where there...buying water and stuff...wow.

It must be about time to run around the neighborhood screaming "we're all gonna die! Taste the rainbow before it's too late!" Just kidding, but I have really wanted to do that when there is a gloom and doom forecast for the Bay Area. At least people are out getting stuff, just in case:)
1694. CJ5
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
that spin on PR radar is not the LLCOC guys


That is correct
Quoting Levi32:
Recon last night found the mid-level center as low as the 850mb level without a surface reflection. Puerto Rico radar hints that the recon may have found a mid-level center again this afternoon, with the surface reflection still displaced northward. Either that, or the surface circulation has two lobes, one south, and one north. There's definitely something closer to Puerto Rico though. It might be an extension that harmlessly rotates around the circulation and becomes nothing, but there's definitely something messing going on with Isaac.


Quoting FLSurf:
First time. Wahoooooooo! Go North!
"WHAT"?
The EURO is even trending west now. It bears repeating as this is the best model overall!
Quoting stormchaser19:
Planning our strategy before heading out to TS Isaac

Peple who are risking their lives for keep us informed thanks


...and the guy in the back is checking facebook.

;)
Great news for the Caymans. Current track leaves Isaac over 350 miles to the East and North (and on the weaker side of the storm). Last thing they need is a major hurricane.
1700. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:
Recon last night found the mid-level center as low as the 850mb level without a surface reflection. Puerto Rico radar hints that the recon may have found a mid-level center again this afternoon, with the surface reflection still displaced northward. Either that, or the surface circulation has two lobes, one south, and one north. There's definitely something closer to Puerto Rico though. It might be an extension that harmlessly rotates around the circulation and becomes nothing, but there's definitely something messing going on with Isaac.
Thats a good thing right?
Quoting Levi32:
Keep in mind the recon last night found the mid-level center as low as the 850mb level without a surface reflection. Puerto Rico radar hints that the recon may have found a mid-level center again this afternoon, with the surface reflection still displaced northward. Either that, or the surface circulation has two lobes, one south, and one north. There's definitely something closer to Puerto Rico though. It might be an extension that harmlessly rotates around the circulation and becomes nothing, but there's definitely something messing going on with Isaac.


The point to take home is that Isaac is highly disorganized and this limits the chances of him strengthening very much for a while.
Quoting Levi32:
Keep in mind the recon last night found the mid-level center as low as the 850mb level without a surface reflection. Puerto Rico radar hints that the recon may have found a mid-level center again this afternoon, with the surface reflection still displaced northward. Either that, or the surface circulation has two lobes, one south, and one north. There's definitely something closer to Puerto Rico though. It might be an extension that harmlessly rotates around the circulation and becomes nothing, but there's definitely something messy still going on with Isaac.


yeah huge center swirling south of PR...no convection, but mid level swirl moving towards the low level one...also does it seem isaac has slowed quite a bit?
1703. jonelu
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Remember it well
Whats your best guess on how much rain we are gonna git here in Palm Beach?
The low level center is just to the SW of puerto. You'll also see in the 5:00pm a shift to the west in track.
new Vortex Message about 7 minutes old



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 20:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 19:20:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°40'N 66°34'W (15.6667N 66.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 193 miles (310 km) to the S (190°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,451m (4,760ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 29kts (From the SE at ~ 33.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the east quadrant at 18:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) from the flight level cente
1706. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


The point to take home is that Isaac is highly disorganized and this limits the chances of him strengthening very much for a while.


It also could affect the short-term track significantly for the residents of Hispaniola if Isaac picks a different surface center to consolidate around.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
From Firsthand Weather


Looks like it came from First Drawing Weather...
1708. GetReal
1709. CJ5
Quoting emguy:


I certainly was. Radar shows it, and satellite does support it. This is either an elongated system, a binary system, or we have a complete decouple going down before our eyes. Which actually wouldn't be a complete shock. There was the highly unexpected and unforcasted decouple of Hurricane Chris near Puerto Rico (I want to say that was in 2006).


The RGB shows no sign of rotation in that area, either from the upper or lower level clouds.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...don't ask me where my head was just then, lol. I removed it as soon as re-reading it.

As for the ECMWF, it shows the Bermuda ridge re-building as the trough lifts out. This would force it on a more westward path as the model shows.
Let me put it this way, it would take a major hurricane and some massive ridge humping in order for Isaac to get that far west. The Floridian peninsula as a category 2 is as far as I would go, and that's being generous.

...coming from one of the much more liberal guys on this blog too.
Quoting MississippiWx:


The point to take home is that Isaac is highly disorganized and this limits the chances of him strengthening very much for a while.


I'm sorry...but....we're going to have to ask you to leave....as that comment is contrary to the preferred narrative around here....
1712. LargoFl
Quoting KeyWestwx:
Cute!
yeah there are some funny hurricane pics out there on the web, with all this doom and gloom we need a laugh or two huh
Quoting jonelu:
Whats your best guess on how much rain we are gonna git here in Palm Beach?
I'm sorry jonelu....It's all up in the air right now.....So many variables right now
Quoting RitaEvac:
uh oh....seeing low level rotation SW of PR, looking obvious, but we'll see

I see it too but is it elongated to the south or solo?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Levi32:


It also could affect the short-term track significantly for the residents of Hispaniola if Isaac picks a different surface center to consolidate around.


The "center" you are referring to is also moving rapidly due west and very far to the north. It is more than likely a lobe rotating around a common center, just as the case has been for a while now.
Quoting Levi32:
Keep in mind the recon last night found the mid-level center as low as the 850mb level without a surface reflection. Puerto Rico radar hints that the recon may have found a mid-level center again this afternoon, with the surface reflection still displaced northward. Either that, or the surface circulation has two lobes, one south, and one north. There's definitely something closer to Puerto Rico though. It might be an extension trough that harmlessly rotates around the circulation and becomes nothing, but there's definitely something messy still going on with Isaac.


If that is the true center than this storm is in horrible shape
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Great news for the Caymans. Current track leaves Isaac over 350 miles to the East and North (and on the weaker side of the storm). Last thing they need is a major hurricane.
I see what you did there.
1719. Levi32
Quoting CJ5:


The RGB shows no sign of rotation in that area, either from the upper or lower level clouds.


I've been double and triple questioning myself on this all morning, but peering beneath the milky mid-level clouds south of PR, the surface circulation is definitely either elongated that direction or actually is there. I can almost see a swirl as the cloud deck thins.

Rapid-scan visible loop
Good afternoon all. I was just thinking, wouldn't it be CRAZY if the Euro is right and Isaac does come up the Louisiana/MS border (just like Katrina did) on the 7th Anniversary of Katrina, next week on Wednesday, August 29th, 2012???
Quoting Levi32:
Keep in mind the recon last night found the mid-level center as low as the 850mb level without a surface reflection. Puerto Rico radar hints that the recon may have found a mid-level center again this afternoon, with the surface reflection still displaced northward. Either that, or the surface circulation has two lobes, one south, and one north. There's definitely something closer to Puerto Rico though. It might be an extension trough that harmlessly rotates around the circulation and becomes nothing, but there's definitely something messy still going on with Isaac.
Strange how he is having a hard time pulling it together... There's seems to be a new element or ingredient that the models are not factoring in.. maybe something with climate change...I'm pontificating about it though if he doesn't get his act together we are all better for it. Especially for us sitting ducks in the Fl Keys
Quoting StormJunkie:


Already airborne. Been taking obs for the past 3 hours.

There you are! H1900 says no mention of the alien blob attack today. Vaya con dios, HHs, and stay away from any straight up jet columns!
1724. scott39
Isaac isnt even a teenager in respects to devolopement. The Eastern Caribbean is notorious for limiting the maturing of a TC. Isaac is not dealing with the dry air very well for right now. The reason the models blow it up in the GOM, is because the enviroment will allow Isaac to mature to a strong hurricane. This is what the EURO has seen all along. Dont expect any significant developement of Isaac until Saturday at the earliest....or may wait until it reaches the GOM.
1725. snotly
About to start raining in Haiti
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looks like Isaac is starting to move more poleward?

Link
Still looks mostly west still. No turn deteced to NW or WNW.
kermit back up in the air.
1728. jonelu
News is reporting that many in Haiti still have no idea that Isaac is on the way. What a tragedy. It puts things in perspective.
Quoting Tazmanian:
new Vortex Message about 7 minutes old



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 20:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 19:20:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°40'N 66°34'W (15.6667N 66.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 193 miles (310 km) to the S (190°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,451m (4,760ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 29kts (From the SE at ~ 33.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the east quadrant at 18:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) from the flight level cente


Thanks Taz.
1730. atl134
Quoting mojofearless:


How is that funny, fellow Louisianian? I've been watching the Euro for days - it had NOLA in the crosshairs for a number of runs, and now it's showing more of a panhandle hit. Which is east last time I checked. Furthermore, the GFS has shifted west over the past few days. So what am I missing here? I did actually sleep, so maybe I missed something.


The 12z Euro today has it making landfall in Louisiana. Perhaps you were looking at the 00z run this morning which was farther east.
Quoting interpreter:
Still looks mostly west still. No turn deteced to NW or WNW.
hmm??? Let me see who should I listen to, I think I'll go with the NHC which says WNW for now.
Quoting MississippiWx:


The "center" you are referring to is also moving rapidly due west and very far to the north. It is more than likely a lobe rotating around a common center, just as the case has been for a while now.


Yeppers.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


I don't know. Looks like that spin could be heading right toward the Cayman Islands.


;)


dude please stop it I did not mention one time Cayman Islands

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
that spin on PR radar is not the LLCOC guys

nope no cayman here

so stop it

that one S of PR is liekly to be a weak spin that is dying or dead

new one is SW nearer to 15N
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

THE CENTER IS LOCATED AT 15.7 NORTH. RECON CONFIRMS THIS. ITS NOT MOVING WSW, DUE WEST. OR ANYTHING THAT YOU THINK.

WHAT YOU SEE IS A BUNCH OF BS. All the time.

Finished venting...
Now you can meet my Ignore list. along with your little friend that is thinking the same bs as you.

Then where is it moving. It is NOT stationary...
Quoting angiest:


I personally don't see anything resembling a COC in the base velocity scans out of PR.


That's because there isn't.

The real CoC is so far to the SSW that it is starting to exit the long range radar, which is twice the radius of the base wind velocity tool.


So you will not see the real CoC on base velocity tool at PR...ever...because it's too far west and south...


The feature some people have noticed is a swirl caused by feeder bands of different velocities passing one another. Sometimes this appears to be a circulation, even on base reflectivity, and it's just nothing.

In this case, the base reflectivity is deceiving your eyes, sort of like a hub-cab spinning backwards even though in reality it spins forwards, when you turn on base velocity you can see this has no circulation at all in that location, as all the winds to the S of the alleged rotation are in fact moving away from the radar, when given it's position, if it were a circulation, it should be blowing back towards the radar.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
I had an interesting thought recently- if tropical entities could talk, what do you think they would say?


They would say "You guys have no idea where I'm going" or "I'm dizzy from the Coriolos effect, I gotta sit down"
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Good afternoon all. I was just thinking, wouldn't it be CRAZY if the Euro is right and Isaac does come up the Louisiana/MS border (just like Katrina did) on the 7th Anniversary of Katrina, next week on Wednesday, August 29th, 2012???

Unlikely but possible. that would be the timeframe...
Quoting LargoFl:
I just need to know..This isnt gonna happen?


How's your beer supply ?
1739. Buhdog
Quoting Tazmanian:




i have a idea whats send JFV and jason out there and they can tell us what the storm is doing


Not to pick sides...but you tagged River guy for being off topic during a storm for what it's worth. Pot...Meet Kettle.

Sure is a weird looking trough over FL eh?


Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Has Isaac done a u-turn and is now heading east?

NO NO NO NO NO
1741. A4Guy
one frustrating and confounding storm, that's for sure.
Quoting Buhdog:


Not to pick sides...but you tagged River guy for being off topic during a storm for what it's worth. Pot...Meet Kettle.

Sure is a weird looking trough over FL eh?



High shear there too??
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012
500 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...JOYCE LOSING ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 42.5W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Quoting jonelu:
News is reporting that many in Haiti still have no idea that Isaac is on the way. What a tragedy. It puts things in perspective.
. How can you call it a tragedy when nothing has happened yet?
Quoting cirrocumulus:


Yeppers.

Confusing i think its elongated.


12z Euro
Isaac is still very tilted, Now N to S

200mb


500mb


850mb
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
. How can you call it a tragedy when nothing has happened yet?

If the chaos criminals sensed the population was about to go chaotic, they'd have perfect cover to loot, etc.
1749. A4Guy
you can tell when everyone is over at the NHC site refreshing their browser every 5 seconds because the blog slows to a crawl....
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
2100 UTC THU AUG 23 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 67.1W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..500NE 60SE 0SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 67.1W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 66.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.6N 69.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.9N 74.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.3N 76.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 23.0N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 40SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 67.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting redwagon:

If the chaos criminals sensed the population was about to go chaotic, they'd have perfect cover to loot, etc.
. Like I said nothing has happened yet so you can't call it a tragity. If we called things tragities based on potential destruction everyday could be considered a tragity.
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012

LOCATING THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE CYCLONE HAS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED OUTER
CIRCULATION...THE INNER CORE HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED AND THERE ARE
STILL MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER.

HIGHLIGHTING THE ISSUE ARE DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42059...WHICH HAS
REPORTED 25-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT A POSITION SOUTHWEST OF
THE LATEST HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIXES...WHICH IN TURN WERE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER TRACKED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS A BLEND OF ALL THESE FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ISAAC SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...AND THIS PART OF THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST THAN BEFORE.
THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT...SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5. DESPITE THE GENERAL
WESTWARD SHIFT...THE HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL CALL FOR ISAAC
TO MOVE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO FLORIDA AND OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST. THE 96-120 HR POINTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE
WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC SUGGESTS THAT ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WHICH COULD OCCUR IF THE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE.
WHILE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS IT...ISAAC COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY
ABOUT THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL IN HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24-36 HR.
AFTER THAT...PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE CURRENT 120 HR INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE
IF THE GLOBAL MODEL UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS VERIFY.
THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS
STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
ISAAC. THE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 16.0N 67.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.6N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 17.5N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 18.9N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 20.3N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/1800Z 23.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 27/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 28.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
From Firsthand Weather


Dislike...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 232055
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES
FOR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 67.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...MOVER NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON FRIDAY...AND APPROACH
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND BUOY DATA IS IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. NOAA BUOY
42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004.1 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY FRIDAY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA BY SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. STORM SURGE IN PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Didn't see if it was already posted, so here,and if it was, reminder.
Same deal:

Left side of the cone is what I think is most likely going to be the actual track.




Edit: ignore the curve at the end for now.
he seems to be strengthening, at least on the SW side of the storm...

Time: 20:54:30Z
Coordinates: 15.2167N 69.0167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 299.2 mb (~ 8.84 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 9,698 meters (~ 31,818 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 524 meters (~ 1,719 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 39° at 30 knots (From the NE at ~ 34.5 mph)
Air Temp: -28.4°C* (~ -19.1°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 18 mm/hr (~ 0.71 in/hr)
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
he seems to be strengthening, at least on the SW side of the storm...

Time: 20:54:30Z
Coordinates: 15.2167N 69.0167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 299.2 mb (~ 8.84 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 9,698 meters (~ 31,818 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 524 meters (~ 1,719 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 39° at 30 knots (From the NE at ~ 34.5 mph)
Air Temp: -28.4°C* (~ -19.1°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 18 mm/hr (~ 0.71 in/hr)

The rain rate is pretty high, and the flight level winds are lower than the surface winds, which is another sign of it being contaminated.
In the West Pacific:

interesting that they wouldn't tag it as 'suspect data' if that's the case...looking at their altitude (30,000ft ), I don't know if the winds would be higher or lower at flight level. beyond my knowledge XD
you could very well be correct. this storm is like ernesto 2.0 - keeping everybody guessing...


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The rain rate is pretty high, and the flight level winds are lower than the surface winds, which is another sign of it being contaminated.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
. Like I said nothing has happened yet so you can't call it a tragity. If we called things tragities based on potential destruction everyday could be considered a tragity.

See how the blog died after SECONUS became unaffected? Same with Haiti, if Isaac is perceived to be just a ~rainmaker there will be no fever pitch.
it's dead because there's a new blog post =p
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=2200

Quoting redwagon:

See how the blog died after SECONUS became unaffected? Same with Haiti, if Isaac is perceived to be just a ~rainmaker there will be no fever pitch.
LOL.

Chad Meyers took the "Multiple competing centers" route on his update.

He poked about 8 or 10 dots at random on the map...lol...


Link

Cool man
The Ridge of Gulf DOOM:


1000mb steering:



990mb:



970mb:



950mb:

Isaac will be a western gulf storm. End of line.
1770. Dunkman
The NOAA "Kermit" just found the 700mb center approx 100 miles south of the LL center. That is what everyone has been seeing on satellite.
:o)
...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE


Yeah, just a little since midday. Excuse me while I jump over to Kayak and start looking for hotels.

Quoting Stormchaser121:
Isaac will be a western gulf storm. End of line.
Yes, I've been repeating it a lot because we have easier access to the GFS and most other models except for the ECMWF. Well, actually we have access easily from Weather Underground except that the other clusters are represented more often on many other weather websites people like to use. Yet the ECMWF is no. 1 historically. Doesn't mean it will win every time.
My composition of interesting images

GFS with Joyce (Eastern line), Isaac (western line), Kirk (western storm), and Leslie (Eastern storm).

Taiwan typhoon waves.