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Isaac reorganizing as it blows through the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:34 PM GMT on August 22, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to maintain top winds of just 45 mph as its center prepares to move through the Lesser Antilles islands late this afternoon and early this evening. The entire Lesser Antilles chain of islands is receiving heavy rains from Isaac, with Martinique picking up 1.46" of rain as of 2 pm EDT, and St. Lucia receiving 1.49". However, Isaac is not yet generating much in the way of tropical storm-force winds, and none of the islands had received winds in excess of 30 mph as of 4 pm EDT. During their storm penetration to obtain their 2 pm EDT center fix, an Air Force Reserve aircraft measured top surface winds of just 40 mph, and a central pressure of 1004 mb. Top winds at their 5000 foot flight altitude were 49 mph. Isaac is undergoing significant changes to its structure. The plane found the center had become a broad, elongated oval that extended 40 miles from NW to SE. The old center, fixed at 2 pm near 16.1°N, and closer to the dry air to Isaac's north, is being challenged for dominance by a new center that is attempting to form near a burst of heavy thunderstorms at 15.5°N. The Hurricane Hunters' latest fix at 3:50 pm EDT put the center near 15.9°N, a southwards shift of about 17 miles. The resulting battle between centers is giving Isaac a rather odd spiral rectangular shape, as seen on visible satellite loops. The Hurricane Hunters did not observe an eyewall trying to form, and recent microwave satellite images also show no signs of an eyewall forming. A large area of dry air to the north of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, continues to interfere with development, and Isaac will not be able to begin strengthening until it resolves the battle between it two competing centers, and casts out the dry air infiltrating it. This is going to take at least a day, since Isaac is a very large storm, and it takes more time to spin up a big chunk of the atmosphere. Radar imagery from Barbados and Martinique show plenty of heavy rain showers, mostly on the south side of Isaac where it is moister. There has been a modest increase in spiral banding since this morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Isaac, showing its odd spiral rectangle shape.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are very similar to the previous set of runs, which I discussed in detail in this morning's post. The models show a westward track to a point on the south coast of Hispaniola. Isaac's center shift to the south may require some modest adjustments to the south and west for the models. This would result in the storm spending a few hours less time over Hispaniola, and more time over or just south of Cuba. This would slightly decrease the risk to the Dominican Republic, the east coast of Florida, and the Bahamas, but increase the risk to the west coast of Florida. The ECMWF--our best performing model over the past two years--continues to be an outlier among the models. It predicts that Isaac will track just south of Cuba, cross the western tip of Cuba on Monday, then head north towards an eventual landfall in Louisiana. However, this model is keeping Isaac weaker than the other models, and thus predicts the storm will have a weaker response to the trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. If the official NHC intensity forecast is right and Isaac becomes a hurricane on Thursday, the more southerly track of the ECMWF is not going to verify, and Isaac will spend considerable time over Cuba on Saturday and Sunday. Where Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba will be critical in determining its future path and intensity, and at this point, we don't know it its more likely that Isaac will go up the east coast of Florida, the west coast, or straight up the peninsula over land. At this point, I'd put the odds at:

40% chance of a track through the Gulf of Mexico, west of Florida
25% chance of a landfall in South Florida, and a track mostly over the Florida Peninsula
35% chance of a track along the east coast of Florida

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? The best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). The GFS model has been a close second. You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. Ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 2, the HWRF and GFDL were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2011, but were still respectable. The BAMM model did very well at 4 and 5-day forecasts. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, GFDL, and HWRF. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2011, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence=a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2011 verification report.

I'll have a new post in the morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

4001. JasonRE
Quoting AussieStorm:

Euro is here.



Thank you AussieStorm, I appreciate the link.
It would appear a more well-defined center is beginning to emerge around 15.3°N 65.5°W. Overshooting thunderstorm tops can be seen moving westward along 15.8°N and a pivoting action seen in the CDO along the southern edge of the deep convection.

The slower forward motion has also allowed moisture to begin streaming up the eastern quadrant of the storm as well, which should aid in the development of the inner core of the storm as it starts to close off to the dry air to the north. Once that happens a much more consolidated, symmetrical storm should ensue and intensification should occur at a steady, but not rapid, pace due to its large size. I would be surprised if Isaac made it to hurricane strength before interacting with Hispaniola.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep even now I think it already off of offic track and models




I don't know how in the word you guys see any Nward movement if anything it had Sward movement
I'm going by what the NHC and Recon found and that center is moving more in line with their track.
Quoting CybrTeddy:



Per ATCF, we have TS Joyce now.

Per NHC we still have TD10.
4005. Chiggy
Quoting MahFL:
Seems to be moving a positive WNW now.

NOPE. PR radar link..
Link
For anyone interested in seeing the Fujiwara effect in action, watch the interaction of Bolaven and Tembin over the next few days. Bolaven is frankly HUGE and strengthening, meaning thank Tembin is likely to run a perfect oval across Taiwan. V rare to see a cycle make such a movement, and expect some gargantuan rainfall observations out of southern Taiwan (1000mm/400"+)
PATRAP- where are ya?
What's your thoughts on the track??!
Quoting TropicsGirl:
I didn't take Katrina seriously (as it was expected to make landfall 2.5 hours north of where I lived, even though we were in the hurricane warning area. I figured it would be a weak hurricane at best and that with the center being so far north we would only have a few heavy squalls and a lot of rain. Boy was I wrong!! The darn thing ended up going right over my house and did quite a bit of damage to our property and the roof (not to mention all of the wind driven rain that came in through the window and door openings. I won't play that game again.


I'm in Lantana. I remember the NHC kept saying the storm was headed west when it was clearly headed southwest...
4009. pcola57
Quoting AussieStorm:

Euro is here.


It is what it is but Don't like where that goes.. :(
1001.3 mb
(~ 29.57 inHg)

61 knots
(~ 70.1 mph)
21 mm/hr
(~ 0.83 in/hr)
51.4 knots (~ 59.1 mph)
Tropical Storm

Hmm...
4011. Gearsts
ime: 13:27:00Z
Coordinates: 15.7833N 65.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.0 mb (~ 20.52 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,175 meters (~ 10,417 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1001.5 mb (~ 29.57 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 84° at 33 knots (From the E at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 12.3°C (~ 54.1°F)
Dew Pt: 4.7°C (~ 40.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
4012. Drakoen
Pressure in Issac appears to be steadily decrasing now down to 1001mb. Minimum found near 15.7N
Quoting AussieStorm:

Per NHC we still have TD10.
I'm supposing we'll see this upgrade at 11 a.m.....

Quoting CURIOUSWEATHERGRL:
PATRAP- where are ya?
What's your thoughts on the track??!

NOLA HERE WE COME!!!!!!!!!!
4015. Gearsts
Quoting Chiggy:

NOPE. PR radar link..
Link
PR radar shows wnw heading
Quoting wakd3Xn04:


Geography is not an FCAT testable subject. They don't teach it in Florida schools any more.

And that's why society is breaking down. It should be taught no matter where in the world you live.
4017. centex
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm going by what the NHC and Recon found and that center is moving more in line with their track.
But they said "The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/12 kt."
Quoting AussieStorm:

Per NHC we still have TD10.


TS Ten...
Not Yet Joyce.
4019. emguy
Greetings everyone...Just popping in for a quick minute...This was a map I posted sometime just before 4AM this morning. Just sharing for those who have not seen it.

As of very early this morning, the red "cone" was my general thinking of what we are going to see based on what we have going on with Isaac. I feel more confident about this now the the morning models are showing continued support and ever slightly increasing consensus.

I look forward to the afternoon when we get to see the next run of the EURO. I suspect the EURO, for the fourth straight run will shift to the east a little farther again.

Have a good day. Happy posting.

4020. kwgirl
Good morning all. Here in the Florida Keys, specifically, I am in Key West, we are preparing for this storm. Even though my weather sense does not anticipate this storm, I am preparing just in case. I have been surprised one too many times. Mostly for the better, once for the worse. I keep looking at the forecasts and keep asking how they can predict the northerly turn when it appears to be going mostly west. If it continues west, that would be a good thing for Florida and a bad thing for anyone on the Gulf Coast, because eventually it will turn. I am pray casting that this storm continues west, eventually turns north to cross the yucatan and hopefully go into Mexico. That way the Keys are on the east side of the storm. Everyone have a good day and heed the directions of your emergency managers.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm supposing we'll see this upgrade at 11 a.m.....


Yep, and until the update at 11am it's still TD10.
Hello, here on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana, I am watching Issac closely, the more west he goes, the more nervous I get. Really don't want Issac here. Grounds are already saturated, bayous and marsh are very high. It would not take much to put this town under several feet of water. Definitively not wish casting this way. Put
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep even now I think it already off of offic track and models




I don't know how in the word you guys see any Nward movement if anything it had Sward movement
This system will not even get close the the Cayman Island!!!!!.
Quoting CURIOUSWEATHERGRL:
PATRAP- where are ya?
What's your thoughts on the track??!
Believe he's on vacation
4025. luigi18
Quoting Chiggy:

NOPE. Look at the PR radar link I posted...
Link

Thanks lets wait until 11 am and check again!
Quoting Drakoen:
Pressure in Issac appears to be steadily decrasing now down to 1001mb. minimum foundnear 15.7N
Here we go now this should clear things up on whether the center has been where it always has been or if a new one is forming where the MLC is down by 14.7 N.
Quoting ecupirate:
Just what we need more rain....

I'm telling you guys, we may see a sharp hook NE in the forecast eventually.
4028. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
From me
yes this is quite possible
4029. Chiggy
Quoting Drakoen:
Pressure in Issac appears to be steadily decrasing now down to 1001mb. minimum foundnear 15.7N

Center suspect, peak Flt level winds 40.2mph which translated to 34mph..., If you go by that then it needs to be downgraded just on the mph
look on sattlite Isaac looks like it is a whole degree maybe even degree and half S of the forecasted position

Quoting snotly:
Now the GFS run did show Isaac going SW then NW.


hmm maybe GFS is sooo stuck of it previous forecast path and it is not taking Isaac's W and S movements too well so that why GFS shows that

Quoting samiam1234:
is some one else seeing a northward jog in the last two frames.. is this thing finally making a turn towards the north west as predicted


nope sorry dude don't see it it looks like it may have even taken a Southward jog
Quoting gprxomstr:

NOLA HERE WE COME!!!!!!!!!!
whats your problem lack of brain cells
Quoting Bobbyweather:


TS Ten...
Not Yet Joyce.

Sorry but the NHC still have it as TD10, they are the only authority that names Storms.

4033. GetReal
Check out this loop of Isaac, and zoom in if necessary, and decide for yourself if Isaac is still moving west. (270)

Link
Quoting Bobbyweather:
1001.3 mb
(~ 29.57 inHg)

61 knots
(~ 70.1 mph)
21 mm/hr
(~ 0.83 in/hr)
51.4 knots (~ 59.1 mph)
Tropical Storm

Hmm...



Still 1000 mb steering level. Same steering as before
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
whats your problem lack of brain cells

They are in his left toe.
which recon mission is currently in Isaac 5,6,7 i would suspect 7
4037. Relix
Oh, radar showing WNW movement. Center of 1001mb at 15.7 at 65W. Extrapolated this is a NW movement, but it was probably a relocation or another random center.
Me either

Quoting pcola57:


It is what it is but Don't like where that goes.. :(
Quoting AussieStorm:

And that's why society is breaking down. It should be taught no matter where in the world you live.
People should be surprised how useful Geography is... I won Geography Bee in Middle School and the winning question was... which state is north of Colorado? Other kid said Utah, while I answered Wyoming... It was the easiest thing I've ever won -__-
Quoting Chiggy:

Center suspect, peak Flt level winds 40.2mph which translated to 34mph..., If you go by that then it needs to be downgraded just on the mph

3
Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry but the NHC still have it as TD10, they are the only authority that names Storms.


Didn't you agree on the fact that the ATCF is owned by the NHC?
It is a TS, per 12UTC ATCF. The name is supposed to be confirmed at 15UTC.
4041. MahFL
Quoting Chiggy:

NOPE. PR radar link..
Link


The part on the bottom right is the center and its going WNW.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
which recon mission is currently in Isaac 5,6,7 i would suspect 7
5 and 6
4043. Relix
Quoting Chiggy:

Center suspect, peak Flt level winds 40.2mph which translated to 34mph..., If you go by that then it needs to be downgraded just on the mph

Huh? Center don't need to have the stronger winds, usually the stronger winds are a few miles to the NE or north of the center or anywhere for that matter.
Quoting AussieStorm:

They are in his left toe.

Left he goes, Aus.

Wind Fields for Isaac
Last Updated On 8/23/2012 12:00:00 PM GMT
4046. Chiggy
Quoting Relix:
Oh, radar showing WNW movement. Center of 1001mb at 15.7 at 65W. Extrapolated this is a NW movement, but it was probably a relocation or another random center.

PR radar shows WEST...
4047. Drakoen
.3 degrees north and .2 degrees west. Poleward movement may be ensuing.
4048. GetReal
4049. LargoFl
Quoting emguy:
Greetings everyone...Just popping in for a quick minute...This was a map I posted sometime just before 4AM this morning. Just sharing for those who have not seen it.

As of very early this morning, the red "cone" was my general thinking of what we are going to see based on what we have going on with Isaac. I feel more confident about this now the the morning models are showing continued support and ever slightly increasing consensus.

I look forward to the afternoon when we get to see the next run of the EURO. I suspect the EURO, for the fourth straight run will shift to the east a little farther again.

Have a good day. Happy posting.

..this is not looking good at all
4050. yoboi
Quoting CURIOUSWEATHERGRL:
PATRAP- where are ya?
What's your thoughts on the track??!


i think he is on vacation in tampa at the rnc....he should be on later...
4051. hamla
Quoting CURIOUSWEATHERGRL:
PATRAP- where are ya?
What's your thoughts on the track??!
ppat started his vaca yesterday evening in cancun
Quoting Drakoen:
Pressure in Issac appears to be steadily decrasing now down to 1001mb. Minimum found near 15.7N
his center is still suspect because it keeps reforming. his motion is the same as before which is due west. could be a sign of slow stregthining
4053. FOREX
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
look on sattlite Isaac looks like it is a whole degree maybe even degree and half S of the forecasted position



hmm maybe GFS is sooo stuck of it previous forecast path and it is not taking Isaac's W and S movements too well so that why GFS shows that



nope sorry dude don't see it it looks like it may have even taken a Southward jog


We will know in about 6 hours.lol.
it is appearing more and more likely that Isaac will pass south of hispaniola and pose a danger to eastern jamaica
4055. ARiot
Quoting AussieStorm:

Euro is here.


Not wishcasting or concern trolling, but a Mobile Bay storm ain't pretty (looking at EURO).

Yall remember FEMA started partly in response to Frederick.

I was just a kid in Mobile during that one. Everyone in the family came out OK, but lots of downed trees and messed up houses, and IIRC, it actually missed Mobile Bay by a hair and we never got the big swell that was possible.
Quoting gprxomstr:


Nowadays most people rely on GPS and can't distinguish their own neighborhood from the back on their hand.

Put a name with the storm. We have dumbed down our society with Pop Culture and the Kardashians!


Tembim....


Isaac...


Can you not tell the difference???
4057. Grothar
Quoting LoveThemCanes:


Gro, what's your personal opinion on strength as it reaches FL?


Probably not more than a Cat 1. It depends on how long it remains over water.
4058. Chiggy
Quoting Seflhurricane:
it is appearing more and more likely that Isaac will pass south of hispaniola and pose a danger to eastern jamaica

AGREE
4059. 7544
looks like some banding going on with issac at this hour
4060. MahFL
Stop bickering about renames for a system 1000 miles out in the Atlantic, it's just childish.
4061. LargoFl
small plane landed in the median strip of I-75 down near riverview this morning..you can believe what a traffic nightmare it is right now...thats the second time this week a plane has done that
Quoting emguy:
Greetings everyone...Just popping in for a quick minute...This was a map I posted sometime just before 4AM this morning. Just sharing for those who have not seen it.

As of very early this morning, the red "cone" was my general thinking of what we are going to see based on what we have going on with Isaac. I feel more confident about this now the the morning models are showing continued support and ever slightly increasing consensus.

I look forward to the afternoon when we get to see the next run of the EURO. I suspect the EURO, for the fourth straight run will shift to the east a little farther again.

Have a good day. Happy posting.



Hmm interesting

Quoting Hurricane1956:
This system will not even get close the the Cayman Island!!!!!.


dude I did not say anything what so ever about Isaac tracking to Cayman so you Hurricane1956 stop putting word in my mouth that I did not say!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I have been away for a bit and I heard a rumor there was a named system in the gulf..I know we have Isaac, but has there been a Joyce named yet?
4064. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry but the NHC still have it as TD10, they are the only authority that names Storms.




ATCF is the data feed from the NHC and by that we know what they will produce at 11am in terms of intensity and track. Sometimes the NHC gets second thoughts if the storm is truly disorganized but 90% of the time if the ATCF says it is Joyce and the Navy says it is Joyce.. It is Joyce.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Sorry but the NHC still have it as TD10, they are the only authority that names Storms.

They're not going to upgrade it at 9:42 a.m. when they can just do it at 11. am.

Anyway, catcha layta..
Quoting AussieStorm:

Per NHC we still have TD10.


Just checked the Navy site and NHC and it's still TD10
4068. LargoFl
Quoting zebrafreak:
I have been away for a bit and I heard a rumor there was a named system in the gulf..I know we have Isaac, but has there been a Joyce named yet?
not yet
Quoting MahFL:
Stop bickering about renames for a system 1000 miles out in the Atlantic, it's just childish.

You must be new here. ;)
Quoting zebrafreak:
I have been away for a bit and I heard a rumor there was a named system in the gulf..I know we have Isaac, but has there been a Joyce named yet?



Yes, by Africa.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Tembim....


Isaac...


Can you not tell the difference???

Catching on there I see. Bravo!
4072. Relix
.2N
.3W
1001mb at 15.7, 65W.

If that's not a WNW-NW heading I don't know what it is.
Quoting Drakoen:
Pressure in Issac appears to be steadily decrasing now down to 1001mb. Minimum found near 15.7N


Keep in mind that that observation is from the NOAA G-IV jet and is from a much higher altitiude then the hurricane hunters....the extrapolation may not be as accurate. I'd like to see a dropsonde at that location.
4074. JasonRE
Quoting GetReal:
Check out this loop of Isaac, and zoom in if necessary, and decide for yourself if Isaac is still moving west. (270)

Link


That's what I see. Almost, and I mean, ALMOST a SW jog for a split second. It's hard to judge but if anything, I still see W movement. Nothing to show a NW shift at all.
Quoting AussieStorm:

They are in his left toe.
What is wrong with someone stating their opinion? I would say that trends seem to be pushing westward but time will tell. If you dont like what someone has to say ignore them. I havent been a member long but have been reading for years and I get tired of the politics and attacks. Just sayin.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Just checked the Navy site and NHC and it's still TD10


Did you check the backup? ;)
Is TD 10 pumping?
4078. Chiggy
Quoting Drakoen:
.3 degrees north and .2 degrees west. Poleward movement may be ensuing.

couple of things DRAK -0.2 degs here are there matters little in a storm where there are several centers and LLC and MLC far apart..
I have my own opinion where the center might be but I'll go with NHC and just say that it's moving WEST..
Quoting MahFL:
Stop bickering about renames for a system 1000 miles out in the Atlantic, it's just childish.
What's more childish is some of the wishcasting going on here.
Quoting mikatnight:
Wind Fields for Isaac
Last Updated On 8/23/2012 12:00:00 PM GMT




on a strictly straight line, this would miss PR TS winds
4081. LargoFl
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Easily a Category 4 right now...

+

Looks as if its starting to bend to the WSW. Reminds me a bit of Mitch way back...
So we still can't find the center huh?

Well at least the last HH mission did find a decent wind shift at 15.36...
4084. MahFL
Quoting jeffs713:

You must be new here. ;)


Meanwhile more rain for N Florida.....
Quoting MahFL:
Stop bickering about renames for a system 1000 miles out in the Atlantic, it's just childish.

Haha... Sorry.
Quoting Relix:
.2N
.3W
1001mb at 15.7, 65W.

If that's not a WNW-NW heading I don't know what it is.


you go relix!
NOAA plane is at 10,000 feet so the 1001mb reading is not accurate.
Quoting CybrTeddy:



Per ATCF, we have TS Joyce now.
Yes, it seems some are confused about the relationship between ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast [or Formation], not "As the crow flies") and the NHC (National Hurricane Center). The two aren't separate, independent organizations; in fact, ATCF isn't even an organization at all. It's just a software package used by the NHC to process tropical data and plot tropical cyclones. So when ATCF calculates, for instance, that a particular cyclone is a tropical storm--as it has done this morning with TD10/Joyce--the NHC in just about every single case goes along with what the ATCF computer spits out.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

3
Didn't you agree on the fact that the ATCF is owned by the NHC?
It is a TS, per 12UTC ATCF. The name is supposed to be confirmed at 15UTC.

Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System
That says it all. it's Automated a computer not human. NHC will name it at 11am. Until then it's still TD10 as per the NHC
4090. LargoFl
Still a TD 10 until NHC named it otherwise. Could be denumbered again between now and 11 am.
ISAAC IS NOT MOVINH WESTNORTHWEST. look at the steering. same as before. WEST. he has many center reformations. we learned that yesterday
Just found the dropsondes from the NOAA plane...they are getting 1005mb surface pressures....winds aren't calm though....southeast at 36mph.
And after looking at Kermit's reading; it seems we still have a very decoupled system.
Hey everyone.. After observing the steering pattern and center fix, I am working on the REED run, which is a drastic change from the last run that I made 2 days ago. Just haven't had the time to keep up.
000
FONT14 KNHC 230912
PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC THU AUG 23 2012

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 2 5 10 13 22
TROP DEPRESSION 16 10 15 17 18 13 13
TROPICAL STORM 81 77 51 59 51 44 38
HURRICANE 2 12 32 20 21 29 28
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 11 26 16 17 23 21
HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 3 3 4 5
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 2 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 65KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 8(28)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 8(36)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 8(39)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 8(35)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 12(33)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 15(30)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 4(25)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 1(29)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 16(37) 1(38)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 4(31) X(31)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 1(21) X(21)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 8(37) 1(38)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 28(51) X(51) 1(52)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)

KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 13(13) 25(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 22(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

CAPE BEATA 34 X 5( 5) 51(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 7(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 29(30) 41(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

PONCE 34 24 30(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)

SAN JUAN 34 14 16(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)

SAINT THOMAS 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)

SAINT CROIX 34 32 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

AVES 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting Drakoen:
.3 degrees north and .2 degrees west. Poleward movement may be ensuing.


Recon should find an organizing Isaac. Or a more organized center anyway, hence the pressure drops. Looks tilted with height now NE to SW.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, it seems some are confused about the relationship between ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast [or Formation], not "As the crow flies") and the NHC (National Hurricane Center). The two aren't separate, independent organizations; in fact, ATCF isn't even an organization at all. It's just a software package used by the NHC to process tropical data and plot tropical cyclones. So when ATCF calculates, for instance, that a particular cyclone is a tropical storm--as it has done this morning with TD10/Joyce--the NHC in just about every single case goes along with what ATCF spits out.

And until the NHC names TD10 TS Joyce, It's still TD10.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System
That says it all. it's Automated a computer not human. NHC will name it at 11am. Until then it's still TD10 as per the NHC

Let's all wait. I regret saying TS Ten :(
looks like the center is tighting up near 15.0 N and 65 W
12Z
Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 13:28:30Z
Coordinates: 15.6667N 65.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.1 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,151 meters (~ 10,338 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.1 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 114° at 16 knots (From the ESE at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: 11.2°C (~ 52.2°F)
Dew Pt: 10.2°C (~ 50.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 21 mm/hr (~ 0.83 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Doubt this accurate!


As do I.

Even if that pressure is accurate, it's definitely not the center fix, because there's just no way.

In order for that to be a center fix, the storm would need to be anti-cyclonic...lol...

Both center fix candidates are on PR radar, both the known mid-level rotation, and the NHC alleged LLC are on radar, and neither of them is anywhere near that far north or east.

Not to mention, the suspected LLC has actually moved closer to the mid level circulation anyway.


The storm is far more organized now than it ever has been, which is plain as day on RGB and funktop, not to mention Dvorak.

4104. Relix
The steering is broken, there is a gap in the high to the NW. You don't just follow the little lines that move east to west, you see the gap above and the positioning of the high. The NHC and the GFS predicted this movement, I don't see what the huge fuss is this about :P.
Quoting Drakoen:
.3 degrees north and .2 degrees west. Poleward movement may be ensuing.


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
it is appearing more and more likely that Isaac will pass south of hispaniola and pose a danger to eastern jamaica
Quoting Chiggy:

AGREE

I agree as well

Quoting FOREX:


We will know in about 6 hours.lol.


true I think wheels up are up I think because ain't take off suppose to happen at 12Z now it is about 13Z
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
New Blog!!!

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Relix:
.2N
.3W
1001mb at 15.7, 65W.

If that's not a WNW-NW heading I don't know what it is.


An simple extrapolation of a movement 0.2 degrees N, and 0.3 degrees west, gives a heading of 300 degrees, which is just north of WNW.

Of course, going from one centre fix to another does not give an accurate long term heading, but it certainly shows a northward component in movement.
Just found the NOAA plane HDOB report sampling the center....SFMR has 42mph winds in the northeast side...pressure 1005mb.

Link
4110. wpb
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.
agreed x10
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.


They are basing the center on the lowest pressure, which is going to jump around within the elongated circulation. The actually circulation is still tightening up and will wobble as it does so until its stable.
4112. 7544
hes about to tighten up at this hour and a piece broke off over in the bahamas a new blob maybe ?
Quoting reedzone:
Hey everyone.. After observing the steering pattern and center fix, I am working on the REED run, which is a drastic change from the last run that I made 2 days ago. Just haven't had the time to keep up.
reed the models are currently argree with the NHC track thus far except 2 outliners
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.


Yes, something is very out of whack with this storm. It is extremely decoupled vertically. MLC and LLC still can not come to terms with each other.
Quoting floridaboy14:
his center is still suspect because it keeps reforming.


It isn't so much that the center keeps reforming...

It's more that there hasn't been a true inner core of the system, but rather a board tropical low pressure system. These center reformations are simply individual vorticies spinning around the overall broad circulation, which would be much easier to discern in a system with less convection. These little vorticies would eventually take over and become the dominant center is a smaller, more symmetric storm. But due to the large, broad, off-centered nature of Isaac these little areas of vorticity get spun off. As they spin off they sometimes drag the broader center in their direction but never far enough to change a longer term vector, which is why the storm 'center' (area of lowest pressure) has remained north of 15°N, despite all these apparent 'jumps' of the center. It's simply a representation of how the storm is currently structured.
4116. LargoFl
On the water vapor image is that a trough moving into Texas? If so I doubt Issac chances of moving into the gulf will happen, more likely a Florida storm Cat 2 or 3 upon first landfall in the upper to middle keys. 24 to 36 hrs over the straights and Gulf Stream could be stronger. Donna like track maybe a little east.
Quoting AussieStorm:

And until the NHC names TD10 TS Joyce, It's still TD10.

Mother nature doesn't operate around man-made classifications. It can already technically be a TS.
4119. Relix
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.


Well the system did develop a SW COC yesterday, could also do the same now. It could also be developing at 15N, 65W like Selfhurricane says. The radar shows the supposed real center moving at WNW, and the visible it seems its also lifting. The steering also supports this, and the NHC and the GFS. That's why there are multiple planes flying over Isaac, they need to keep feeding good information because this is one wild system with catastrophic probabilities.

I know some of you WANT the system in your backyard, but there are facts. I stand with the WNW movement, but the NHC has the final say
No wonder the Eastern Caribbean is known as the "Dead Zone" I see why now.
4121. Gearsts
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.
MLC is moving west and the LLC is moving wnw. A very organized storm ;)
my prediction is a 45 mph storm at 15.8 N 65.1 W going WNW at 12 mph.. cone moves slightly to the east.
Am I reading that right! 100.5 MB and 70 MPH winds! My guess is that there no where near the surface... either that or its going to be a very long day
4125. Chiggy
MLC and LLC few degrees apart LOL...
Models:Tropical Storm Ten | Tropical Storm Isaac

- From Tropical Atlantic
4127. MahFL
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.


It's called shear, it is quite common, if it gets too high it destroys the storm by slicing off the top and moving it away from the bottom, to put it simply.
4128. Chiggy
Quoting samiam1234:
my prediction is a 45 mph storm at 15.8 N 65.1 W going WNW at 12 mph.. cone moves slightly to the east.


HAHA LOL
4129. Relix
This storm is a mess after all is said and donde XD
Quoting StormJunkie:


Yes, something is very out of whack with this storm. It is extremely decoupled vertically. MLC and LLC still can not come to terms with each other.


I wondering if it isn't possible for the mid level circulation to take over and pull the low lever circulation under it. That mass of convection South of 15N has held together well this morning.
Me two
Quoting samiam1234:
my prediction is a 45 mph storm at 15.8 N 65.1 W going WNW at 12 mph.. cone moves slightly to the east.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I agree as well



true I think wheels up are up I think because ain't take off suppose to happen at 12Z now it is about 13Z


Seems so to me too...really hope it ain't so. Someone please say it ain't so...Dr. Masters, give us your opinion please.
i would love to see recon go into 15N and 65 W because looking at the RGB and visible it looks more and more likely the LLC and the midlevel center are in the process of stacking , and indications are if a WNW movement does not commence we could be looking at a stronger system moving towards Eastern cuba if it misses hispaniola which in my opinion appears to be occuring
4134. Chiggy
Quoting MahFL:


It's called shear, it is quite common, if it gets too high it destroys the storm by slicing off the top and moving it away from the bottom, to put it simply.

Or it forms further south where the MLC is! LLC is moving WEST, 0.2 degs here and there matters little in a storm where it's even hard for recon find a propoer center. Moving WEST


Buoy 42059 buoy is at:

15.054 N 67.472 W (15°3'14" N 67°28'19" W)

So according to latest center fix should pass North of here later on
4136. LargoFl
Gov. Scott says Florida 'will be prepared' for Isaac
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm getting tired of morons making up stuff on this blog. It's disgusting... please get a job at McDonald's or something if you really want attention. They will need you.


I actually have relatives who are very high up in the corporate ladder and have very lucrative, successful careers from starting out there. They are enjoying a fairly, non-stress, happy life without any financial worries whatsoever.

Just saying.
Quoting 7544:
hes about to tighten up at this hour and a piece broke off over in the bahamas a new blob maybe ?


I am guessing that is from the ULL that looked like it was filling in yesterday.
Latest NOAA dropsonde found 46mph surface winds in the SE quadrant

Link
Quoting samiam1234:
my prediction is a 45 mph storm at 15.8 N 65.1 W going WNW at 12 mph.. cone moves slightly to the east.
very unlikely center appears to be stacking up near 15N and 65W as for the cone the nhc will likely keep it as is since the models have maintained the current track and none have shifted east of florida
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, it seems some are confused about the relationship between ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast [or Formation], not "As the crow flies") and the NHC (National Hurricane Center). The two aren't separate, independent organizations; in fact, ATCF isn't even an organization at all. It's just a software package used by the NHC to process tropical data and plot tropical cyclones. So when ATCF calculates, for instance, that a particular cyclone is a tropical storm--as it has done this morning with TD10/Joyce--the NHC in just about every single case goes along with what the ATCF computer spits out.


It's almost not even worth clarifying that as some just don't get it. I mean one can look at at this and tell this is for sure Joyce.

Quoting noraneinsite:
What is wrong with someone stating their opinion? I would say that trends seem to be pushing westward but time will tell. If you dont like what someone has to say ignore them. I havent been a member long but have been reading for years and I get tired of the politics and attacks. Just sayin.

Opinions are welcome but Calling out a place like that is what's called wish-casting or doom-casting. A lot of people here don't like that here, especially me.
lets have a vote.
a. isaac is moving west
b. isaac is moving west north west

I say A. just dont see the northward movement based on satalite and steering layers.
4144. palmpt
Quoting ARiot:


Not wishcasting or concern trolling, but a Mobile Bay storm ain't pretty (looking at EURO).

Yall remember FEMA started partly in response to Frederick.

I was just a kid in Mobile during that one. Everyone in the family came out OK, but lots of downed trees and messed up houses, and IIRC, it actually missed Mobile Bay by a hair and we never got the big swell that was possible.


The high water mark for Mobile Bay is Katrina in recent history. Study the charts. The big storm surge direct hit on Mobile Bay has not happened. When that happens, it will be devastating. Chemical plants in lower Mobile County don't have adequate storm surge protection. Historic downtown Mobile would be inundated. Dog River homes and other areas south of I-10 in Mobile County would be swamped. A storm going up Mobile Bay would be catastrophic. Ivan was almost the one. It turned 1 degree at the last minute. It's only a matter of time...
Quoting Gearsts:
MLC is moving west and the LLC is moving wnw. A very organized storm ;)


Exactly!
Quoting farupnorth:


Buoy 42059 buoy is at:

15.054 N 67.472 W (15°3'14" N 67°28'19" W)

So according to latest center fix should pass North of here later on

that buoy has been getting N-NNW winds all morning indicating the COC is north of 15N just like the NHC says it is.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's almost not even worth clarifying that as some just don't get it. I mean one can look at at this and tell this is for sure Joyce.


It will be Joyce at 11am. When the NHC names it. Not a flipping computer.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm getting tired of morons making up stuff on this blog. It's disgusting... please get a job at McDonald's or something if you really want attention. They will need you.
Agreed 100%,we know who this people are!!!.
Quoting GTcooliebai:No wonder the Eastern Caribbean is known as the "Dead Zone" I see why now.
Yes ,,agree, but they become a big mess under us and we get the worst of them ,,specially with the rain upon us ,,for days and days..this one stop and has us paralized for three days..
4150. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF FLORIDA. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ISAAC
AND AS TO WHETHER OR NOT ISAAC WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPACTS ON THE
AREA. ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE STEADILY
INCREASES. AS IT STANDS NOW...ISAAC IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO
EXTREME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. IF YOU HAVE NOT DONE SO
ALREADY...INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BEGIN PREPARING THROUGH
SATURDAY. VISIT WWW.READY.GOV FOR DETAILED PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND
INFORMATION.
Quoting LargoFl:
Gov. Scott says Florida 'will be prepared' for Isaac


Great, I can rest easy now...LOL
1007mb (29.74 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F) 205° (from the SSW) 40 knots (46 mph)
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm getting tired of morons making up stuff on this blog. It's disgusting... please get a job at McDonald's or something if you really want attention. They will need you.

And exactly who are you referring to?
I think I'm not making up stuff.
4155. LargoFl
Quoting TriMOPER:


Great, I can rest easy now...LOL
LOL i was thinking the same thing..wonder if he will help board up my house
Quoting Bobbyweather:
1007mb (29.74 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F) 205° (from the SSW) 40 knots (46 mph)

And exactly who are you referring to?
I think I'm not making up stuff.
Directed to trolls...
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's almost not even worth clarifying that as some just don't get it. I mean one can look at at this and tell this is for sure Joyce.

Yes should be Joyse and way better organized than his big brother Isaac...
4158. JLPR2
Well, some breeze and not much to report besides that. XD Was expecting to be raining by now, but Isaac seems to have other plans.


Also, one can easily get an idea of where the LLC is, MLC, no idea. This storm still has some work to do before it can become a hurricane.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
reed the models are currently argree with the NHC track thus far except 2 outliners
He probably thinks it will hit him from the west coast now. lol
4160. MahFL
Here most of the white is below 15, due to the ENE shear of about 13 mph. But the storm is moving WNW.

Quoting sullivanweather:


It isn't so much that the center keeps reforming...

It's more that there hasn't been a true inner core of the system, but rather a board tropical low pressure system. These center reformations are simply individual vorticies spinning around the overall broad circulation, which would be much easier to discern in a system with less convection. These little vorticies would eventually take over and become the dominant center is a smaller, more symmetric storm. But due to the large, broad, off-centered nature of Isaac these little areas of vorticity get spun off. As they spin off they sometimes drag the broader center in their direction but never far enough to change a longer term vector, which is why the storm 'center' (area of lowest pressure) has remained north of 15°N, despite all these apparent 'jumps' of the center. It's simply a representation of how the storm is currently structured.
Whoa... where did you come from buddy? Great analysis.
4162. Relix
Is the MLC (which somehow seems like a separate entity) rotating around the NE center? Kinda seems like it.

And I vote for B. Moving WNW-NW in my eyes
4163. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's almost not even worth clarifying that as some just don't get it. I mean one can look at at this and tell this is for sure Joyce.


It is, just not until the upcoming advisory.
ball of convection sinking south...
if you look at the water vapor loop region wide the trof is begining to dig down into the Se USA and should create a weakness very soon as the models are indications the big question is going to be how far west is the high going to build and whats isaacs location when that occurs
Quoting Relix:


Well the system did develop a SW COC yesterday, could also do the same now. It could also be developing at 15N, 65W like Selfhurricane says. The radar shows the supposed real center moving at WNW, and the visible it seems its also lifting. The steering also supports this, and the NHC and the GFS. That's why there are multiple planes flying over Isaac, they need to keep feeding good information because this is one wild system with catastrophic probabilities.

I know some of you WANT the system in your backyard, but there are facts. I stand with the WNW movement, but the NHC has the final say


You can't see the center on radar, it's too far South to see it. The WNW movement you see is the movement of the feeder bands around the center you can't see to the South IMO. At least I haven't seen a radar where you can see the true center.
Do we have the return of the Blob!?!
Sullivanweather is really knowledgeable, he usually concentrates on North East weather.
The LLC is rotating around the massive mean circulation.IMO
This is the Catholic Diocese of Charleston's Disaster Response Plan...it may be useful to some of you in coming daysLink
Quoting MahFL:
Here most of the white is below 15, due to the ENE shear of about 13 mph. But the storm is moving WNW.




It's definitely slowing down, which usually indicates an imminent turn...probably to the WNW as forecasted.

I would not be surprised to see a gradual intensification trend to begin soon...
4173. Relix
Quoting 69Viking:


You can't see the center on radar, it's too far South to see it. The WNW movement you see is the movement of the feeder bands around the center you can't see to the South IMO. At least I haven't seen a radar where you can see the true center.


Did you zoom out the radar to its maximum point? You can definitely peak a rotating band of rains to the SE side. I really want a new center fix and hear what the NHC has to say.
Quoting AussieStorm:

And until the NHC names TD10 TS Joyce, It's still TD10.
The NHC updates the public at regularly scheduled times, of course; they're not likely to interrupt their regularly scheduled program with a special tropical weather statement for a storm 1,000 miles from anywhere and going nowhere soon. But their own software on which they rely says it's Joyce, so Joyce it is--even if that naming hasn't yet been publicly announced. And that'll happen in 30 minutes.
Aren't these storms great. No matter how much we think we know where their going they remind us we are not in charge here.
Just remember...

"Dying is easy, comedy is hard."
Old Hollywood Saying


These fish were among those caught in a fence by flood waters brought by Hurricane Ike in West Orange, Texas, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2008.
4177. Drakoen
Quoting weatherb0y:
Whoa... where did you come from buddy? Great analysis.


He's been on wunderground for a while. One of the best, top posters on this site.
Quoting MahFL:
Here most of the white is below 15, due to the ENE shear of about 13 mph. But the storm is moving WNW.



What shear? Visible below shows good outflow to the ENE and that wouldn't happen if the shear you claim is happening was there.

4179. fire635
Good morning all... Ive been watching for days now... rarely comment but I feel compelled to remind people that you cant hang on to every single frame of movement on the satellite. You have to take a group of frames over a period of time to decide on changes in movement. This is, and has been, moving west... I believe a more west northwest movement is coming.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Opinions are welcome but Calling out a place like that is what's called wish-casting or doom-casting. A lot of people here don't like that here, especially me.
Like I said I have been on here for years and am very aware of what wishcasting is. Goes on here constantly. I think their funny. There a trusted few on here that give unbiased forecast and most people know that.Heck he might end up being right! Until this thing gets ita act together all bets are off.
4181. msphar
In a few more days Nicaragua ought to get worried.
4182. SykKid
isaac a pathetic storm
4183. Gearsts
Quoting 69Viking:


What shear? Visible below shows good outflow to the ENE and that wouldn't happen if the shear you claim is happening was there.

Anticyclone is west of the system.
4184. mati
The two typhoons in the Pacific seem to be on a collision course as Tembin does a loopDeLoop
The NHC is on top of the movement of Isaac read the discussion from 8 am....if they are uncertain then
why rely on a novice looking at far less data than
they have ...
4186. NEwxguy
over 4000 comments on just a TS.Pretty amazing.
Quoting 69Viking:


What shear? Visible below shows good outflow to the ENE and that wouldn't happen if the shear you claim is happening was there.



I agree. The circulation of this system is just so large that it is being swung around like a bowling bowl (like RitaEvac said earlier). It takes a while for that momentum to catch up with such a massive system.

I too do not see any evidence of northeast shear. Maybe 24 hours ago, but not anymore.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like the center is tighting up near 15.0 N and 65 W


yeah I think its somewhere there

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z


now CLP5 doen't seem far fetched anymore

Quoting RTSplayer:


As do I.

Even if that pressure is accurate, it's definitely not the center fix, because there's just no way.

In order for that to be a center fix, the storm would need to be anti-cyclonic...lol...

Both center fix candidates are on PR radar, both the known mid-level rotation, and the NHC alleged LLC are on radar, and neither of them is anywhere near that far north or east.

Not to mention, the suspected LLC has actually moved closer to the mid level circulation anyway.


The storm is far more organized now than it ever has been, which is plain as day on RGB and funktop, not to mention Dvorak.



true plus remember thats at 10,000 Ft HH RECON is flying into the storm at 5,000Ft so HH will give us a better idea

Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.

got that right
Quoting weatherb0y:
Whoa... where did you come from buddy? Great analysis.


Me?? lol

I've been here forever...

And thank you.
Quoting LargoFl:
it was posted this morning a ways back several times
Yeah, I got it...thanks.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:


It looks as if he has finally gotten his self together this morning. Now the ramp up begins. I would put money down that this becomes a hurricane at 11pm.

Quoting Neapolitan:
The NHC updates at regularly scheduled times, of course; they're not likely to interrupt their regularly scheduled program with a special tropical weather statement for a storm 1,000 miles from anywhere and going nowhere soon. But their own software on which they rely says it's Joyce, so Joyce it is--even if that naming hasn't yet been publicly announced. And that'll happen in 30 minutes.

What's the point of arguing?
I've said it so many times, but people are just denying it.
The ATCF did not rename Ten into Joyce. It's just Tropical Storm Ten until the advisory is issued at 15UTC.
Sorry, but it's the truth.
If it can manage to consolidate a little, I think we'll see a slightly more defined center develop between 15 and 15.3. Between the two blobs.
Outflow seems to be improving.
Quoting 69Viking:


I don't believe it. Look at the satellites with the lat/lan checked. If the center is moving NW the rest of him is moving West or slightly South of West and the center will separate from all that convection South of 15N. Ever fram that goes by more of that mass of convection goes below 15N. Something's out of whack with this storm.


Even the automated center finder on RAMMB site is moving it SW frame by frame, and that's the most north-casting tool I've ever seen.


From PR radar, there's just no way any NW turn has occurred unless the LLC has been totally ejected.

PR Long Range

If this is a northward jog, I'm a baloney sandwich.


When you compare lat and long of the alleged NHC LLC, and use islands on the radar as lat/long reference points, you find the coordinates of the alleged NHC LLC is outside/North of the main 2 feeder bands on radar which are all moving west.

Based on their coordinates, the LLC would be north of the moderate and heavy rains shown on the radar SSE of the station, especially if they are alleging it turned more northwards....yet it's plain as day on radar that the movement of the spiral banding does not support that at all. If anything, it's consolidating more to the southwest.

4196. wpb
anyone locate center lat/long?
Quoting NEwxguy:
over 4000 comments on just a TS.Pretty amazing.


A TS projected to become a hurricane, projected to hit the US, that might be the first major to hit since 2005. Plus, there's nothing else to do...
So the wrap up begins.

Quoting SykKid:
isaac a pathetic storm

Once it is hits Fl as a cat 2...u may want to take those words back!
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It looks as if he has finally gotten his self together this morning. Now the ramp up begins. I would put money down that this becomes a hurricane at 11pm.




Seems unlikely to me; or did I miss some wind readings from HH. Just don't see how it can become a hurricane until the decoupling issue is sorted out. Which it may be trying to do, but has not done yet.
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 13:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 13:52Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 26.5N 82.1W
Location: 18 miles (28 km) to the WSW (239°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 210° at 17 knots (From the SSW at ~ 19.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,580 geopotential meters
Quoting SykKid:
isaac a pathetic storm


I can guarantee you an unfortunate family in Haiti, or Cuba, or Florida, or where ever Isaac may head, who may lose a member would beg to differ.
Quoting wpb:
anyone locate center lat/long?
it appears to me its around 15N and 65.3W
And we have lift off of Sir Issac
It looks like the storm still has pretty healthy outflow.. with the warm waters and light shear, it probably wont be long until this thing begins to ramp up, albeit likely just modestly at first.. I really don't think Isaac will be a hurricane before it hits Hispaniola..
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It looks as if he has finally gotten his self together this morning. Now the ramp up begins. I would put money down that this becomes a hurricane at 11pm.



How much money you got, and ah, where exactly do you keep it?
Quoting Drakoen:


He's been on wunderground for a while. One of the best, top posters on this site.


You are making me blush Drak :)
Quoting Relix:


Did you zoom out the radar to its maximum point? You can definitely peak a rotating band of rains to the SE side. I really want a new center fix and hear what the NHC has to say.


Yes I did and I still think the circulation is futher to the South where the radar doesn't reach.

I've figured out everyone has a different opinion so to each their own. Time will tell who is right and who is wrong. No worries!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 13:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 13:52Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 26.5N 82.1W
Location: 18 miles (28 km) to the WSW (239°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 210° at 17 knots (From the SSW at ~ 19.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,580 geopotential meters
another HH plane headed for ISAAC ???
This will likely be a pretty serious storm, depending on what shape its in when it re-emerges into the gulf in a few days, if that's indeed what happens.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The NHC updates the public at regularly scheduled times, of course; they're not likely to interrupt their regularly scheduled program with a special tropical weather statement for a storm 1,000 miles from anywhere and going nowhere soon. But their own software on which they rely says it's Joyce, so Joyce it is--even if that naming hasn't yet been publicly announced. And that'll happen in 30 minutes.


And we are the PUBLIC.

Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System
Support Page
The forecasts displayed here are the latest received at NRL, and may not be current. NRL collects these forecasts for ATCF project development, and is not responsible for their use in forecasting.

NRL = NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division

Forecast by National Hurricane Center
Graphic by Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia (CAC Required)
Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia

Issac is not the best stacked system at the moment but remember; Weebles Wobble But They Don't Fall Down.....
Quoting sullivanweather:


It isn't so much that the center keeps reforming...

It's more that there hasn't been a true inner core of the system, but rather a board tropical low pressure system. These center reformations are simply individual vorticies spinning around the overall broad circulation, which would be much easier to discern in a system with less convection. These little vorticies would eventually take over and become the dominant center is a smaller, more symmetric storm. But due to the large, broad, off-centered nature of Isaac these little areas of vorticity get spun off. As they spin off they sometimes drag the broader center in their direction but never far enough to change a longer term vector, which is why the storm 'center' (area of lowest pressure) has remained north of 15°N, despite all these apparent 'jumps' of the center. It's simply a representation of how the storm is currently structured.


You stated perfectly what I have been trying to compile into a complete coherent thought for the past day and a half. Thanks!


Here's where I see the rough center inside the broader spin
That drier air has really taken a toll on TS Isaac. Because of the continuing westerly track with a slow SW drift and the dry air it's no surprise that TS Isaac has weakened. Pressure is up and wind speed is down. I don't really see the shift to a more NW track until later today maybe this evening.
I expect the next GFS to adjust more in line with the ECMWF.

It'll need to adjust to the decrease in speed (20>12)and the continued lack of intensity.

There is a good 36 hours difference between the two @ projected landfall on the northern Gulf coast.

I realize big bend area will be closer than Mobile/Pensacola/Panama City area, but not 36 hrs closer.
4217. 7544
hold on everyone hes on his way now looks like hes trying get stacked at this hour good out flow now tighten up today could be his good day
4218. FOREX
Quoting StormTracker2K:
And we have lift off of Sir Issac


I think until we have a solid confirmed center for more than 12 hours, we cannot say it has started moving wnw for more than an hour or two at a time.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Here's where I see the rough center inside the broader spin
looks about right
Could be a cat.2 before clipping Haiti.



Very good out flow with Issac.
4221. Relix
Quoting 69Viking:


Yes I did and I still think the circulation is futher to the South where the radar doesn't reach.

I've figured out everyone has a different opinion so to each their own. Time will tell who is right and who is wrong. No worries!


Absolutely, that is the fun part. Its good to disagree haha.
Quoting HurricaneWeatherDan:
It looks like the storm still has pretty healthy outflow.. with the warm waters and light shear, it probably wont be long until this thing begins to ramp up, albeit likely just modestly at first.. I really don't think Isaac will be a hurricane before it hits Hispaniola..
I think that once Isaac is stacked, it will take off like a rocket.
Halfway through a 24-hour Call of Duty: MW3 marathon with my best friend... No sleep last night, too busy having fun online! Anyhow, I see Isaac is looking better and should begging to strengthen soon. Also, seems like the likely track is more westward now, and it may end up west of Florida its whole lifetime. That could be good or bad for many people on the Gulf Coast...
Quoting Gearsts:
Anticyclone is west of the system.

Correct...

Quoting Relix:


Absolutely, that is the fun part. Its good to disagree haha.


No it's not.
I am hosting a wedding in my backyard Sunday afternoon in Loxahatchee, Fl. Should I reschedule the tent delivery. I am not sure what to do. Canceling this wedding is not an option but I am nervous that it might rain. Any suggestions....
Isaac visual looks best that I've seen yet.
expect Hurricane/ Tropical storm watches to be issued for eastern Cuba and possibly additional areas of the bahamas either at 11 am or 2pm
Quoting StormJunkie:



Seems unlikely to me; or did I miss some wind readings from HH. Just don't see how it can become a hurricane until the decoupling issue is sorted out. Which it may be trying to do, but has not done yet.


Look here, Sonny Boy!!! I'm gettin' really tired of you comin' in here and talkin' sense and reality!!!! You need to get with the program!!! This is the Storm of the Century!!! And everyone needs to panic!!! Right now!!!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
And we have lift off of Sir Issac
What do you see that makes you say that evidence wise man? Just curious.
4231. yoboi
Quoting Seflhurricane:
another HH plane headed for ISAAC ???


yep looks like they will be sending planes non stop in there, wonder if tampa been blowing up there phone lines???? oh rick nabb is having one big rookie season....
Quoting sullivanweather:


It isn't so much that the center keeps reforming...

It's more that there hasn't been a true inner core of the system, but rather a board tropical low pressure system. These center reformations are simply individual vorticies spinning around the overall broad circulation, which would be much easier to discern in a system with less convection. These little vorticies would eventually take over and become the dominant center is a smaller, more symmetric storm. But due to the large, broad, off-centered nature of Isaac these little areas of vorticity get spun off. As they spin off they sometimes drag the broader center in their direction but never far enough to change a longer term vector, which is why the storm 'center' (area of lowest pressure) has remained north of 15°N, despite all these apparent 'jumps' of the center. It's simply a representation of how the storm is currently structured.


Great analysis, this is one explanation I can say sums up what we're all seeing pretty well and makes a lot of sense!
The blog will go nuts come later today as Issac shows his face and once he does it will be one ugly face!
Quoting sullivanweather:


Me?? lol

I've been here forever...


Forever...and that's a mighty long time.

But I'm here to tell you there's somethin' else...the afterworld. A world of never ending happiness. You can always see the sun, day or night...

So when you call up that shrink in Beverly Hills, you know the one - Dr. Everything'll Be Alright...

Instead of asking him how much of your time is left, ask him how much of your mind, baby....

Cuz in this life, things are much harder than in the afterworld...In this life, you're on your own




Quoting Stormcow6:
I am hosting a wedding in my backyard Sunday afternoon in Loxahatchee, Fl. Should I reschedule the tent delivery. I am not sure what to do. Canceling this wedding is not an option but I am nervous that it might rain. Any suggestions....


Expect rain, cause it's gonna.
Quoting Stormcow6:
I am hosting a wedding in my backyard Sunday afternoon in Loxahatchee, Fl. Should I reschedule the tent delivery. I am not sure what to do. Canceling this wedding is not an option but I am nervous that it might rain. Any suggestions....
move it up to Saturday but sunday is going to be a real bad day here in southern florida gusty winds and heavy rain depending on Isaac's track
Quoting DataNerd:
This will likely be a pretty serious storm, depending on what shape its in when it re-emerges into the gulf in a few days, if that's indeed what happens.


likely
depending
if happens


hehe that's funny
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could be a cat.2 before clipping Haiti.



Very good out flow with Issac.


You really think that is good outflow with most of it weighted to the SW?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. cone shift East at 11AM
A.yes
B.no


C stay the same
Quoting weatherb0y:
What do you see that makes you say that evidence wise man? Just curious.


Wise man?
Quoting Seflhurricane:
another HH plane headed for ISAAC ???

think it's the GIV going out to test the atmosphere.
Quoting yoboi:


yep looks like they will be sending planes non stop in there, wonder if tampa been blowing up there phone lines???? oh rick nabb is having one big rookie season....
rick knabb is no rookie he has worked as a hurricane specialist there for years, but he is a rookie as a hurricane center director
Quoting weatherb0y:
What do you see that makes you say that evidence wise man? Just curious.


Quoting mikatnight:


How much money you got, and ah, where exactly do you keep it?


LOL! Easy there...
still way off from becoming an hurricane. It's having trouble holding together as a TS. It's unorganized for now. Just have to wait and see how today plays out.
Quoting presslord:


Look here, Sonny Boy!!! I'm gettin' really tired of you comin' in here and talkin' sense and reality!!!! You need to get with the program!!! This is the Storm of the Century!!! And everyone needs to panic!!! Right now!!!


Hi Press, that's more like it.
1...2...3...FREAKOUT!
Quoting presslord:


Look here, Sonny Boy!!! I'm gettin' really tired of you comin' in here and talkin' sense and reality!!!! You need to get with the program!!! This is the Storm of the Century!!! And everyone needs to panic!!! Right now!!!


My bad! It's bound to be a CAT 6 in fifteen minutes!
4248. yoboi
Quoting Stormcow6:
I am hosting a wedding in my backyard Sunday afternoon in Loxahatchee, Fl. Should I reschedule the tent delivery. I am not sure what to do. Canceling this wedding is not an option but I am nervous that it might rain. Any suggestions....


change the attire to bathing suites....
Quoting chevycanes:

think it's the GIV going out to test the atmosphere.
just saw that. thats great so the models can come into better agreement later today when the info is added in
4250. Chiggy
Quoting MrNatural:


You really think that is good outflow with most of it weighted to the SW?

Stormtracker- losig your credibility here with posts like that... Issac barely a TS with max surface level winds of 37mph - rounded off to 40mph !lol
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could be a cat.2 before clipping Haiti.



Very good out flow with Issac.


Here,take this and place it in you empty avy box. It fits you well.

Quoting TomballTXPride:
ball of convection sinking south...
Yes ball of convection shear to the south, but the center looks more define NE of this convection,
Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! Easy there...


Sorry, I'm so broke I can't even pay attention...
Quoting 69Viking:


Great analysis, this is one explanation I can say sums up what we're all seeing pretty well and makes a lot of sense!
I concur!
4255. ncstorm
From Henry Margusity

Isaac: Still Committed to East Coast of Florida to South Carolina
Aug 23, 2012; 8:35 AM ET

Commentary

I remain committed to a path up the East Coast of Florida into South Carolina. My reasoning is such...

1. Isaac remains weak and continues to come around the Atlantic ridge.

2. Weak trough over the central Gulf keeps Isaac east.

3. Historically, storms on the track of Isaac tend to curve north once they they move past Puerto Rico.

Steering flow would take Isaac west for a time before turning to the northwest once it reaches 70 west taking the storm close to Haiti and over the east end of Cuba. Once Isaac does get off Cuba, at that point the intensification starts and we have a whole new ballgame.

As for the models, Euro has trended to the East going from a New Orleans hit to a Mobile Bay Hit. GFS remains on the west coast for Florida which is a rare path. NAM/DGEX take the storm on my path. GFDL is trending east as are the NHC models.

Given that the center of Isaac is being adjusted almost every hour, the models are going to continue to have problems with the path.
Quoting presslord:


Look here, Sonny Boy!!! I'm gettin' really tired of you comin' in here and talkin' sense and reality!!!! You need to get with the program!!! This is the Storm of the Century!!! And everyone needs to panic!!! Right now!!!


The only people I am worried about right now is the people of Haiti. Will anyone be game to tell them there is a TS/Possible Hurricane on it's way. I wouldn't, it could start mass panic.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Halfway through a 24-hour Call of Duty: MW3 marathon with my best friend... No sleep last night, too busy having fun online! Anyhow, I see Isaac is looking better and should begging to strengthen soon. Also, seems like the likely track is more westward now, and it may end up west of Florida its whole lifetime. That could be good or bad for many people on the Gulf Coast...


I love me some zombies

Xbox live
harrisonhp98

Friend me
Even the NHC, at least at the 5AM advisory on Isaac, were confounded on many levels by him. Isaac's just doing his own thing on his own time. Hope some clarification is coming at the 11AM update. Wonder when Jeff will blog today with all this uncertainty with Isaac.
4259. KORBIN
Once the Gulf Stream flys in we will get a much more accurate picture of projected track. Or at least i will feel better about it.
Quoting BeanTech:


You can always see the sun, day or night...


Like superman when he flies around in space looking for rouges?
Quoting MrNatural:


You really think that is good outflow with most of it weighted to the SW?


The outflow channels in all quads are excellent.

4262. snotly
Look at MSN

Looks like Isaac has slammed into Puerto Rico! Right?

I'd be astonished if someone there told me they were only having occasional rain with 20 mph winds.
Quoting Stormcow6:
I am hosting a wedding in my backyard Sunday afternoon in Loxahatchee, Fl. Should I reschedule the tent delivery. I am not sure what to do. Canceling this wedding is not an option but I am nervous that it might rain. Any suggestions....


Watch the movie Father of the bride. Yeah I would def re-think where you are going to have the wedding, and make plans to have it somewhere indoors.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Yes ball of convection shear to the south, but the center looks more define NE of this convection,


Center is probably in the 15.5N range, and probably moving WNW now...
4265. wpb
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Here's where I see the rough center inside the broader spin
are u south of the forecast location?
4266. bappit
The NHC once again notes the presence of dry air.

UPPER-AIR DATA FROM ST. MAARTEN AT 00Z CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 600 AND 300 MB AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. THIS LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR HAS BEEN HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT FOR THE PAST 3-4 DAYS.

What effect does this have? Check out the northeast quadrant at the end of this loop. The clouds there are evaporating (from the dry air). That evaporation cools the air and cause downdrafts robbing heat from the circulation.


Quoting presslord:


Look here, Sonny Boy!!! I'm gettin' really tired of you comin' in here and talkin' sense and reality!!!! You need to get with the program!!! This is the Storm of the Century!!! And everyone needs to panic!!! Right now!!!

Oh Press, do you need a nap? lol
4268. Relix
Quoting Chiggy:

Stormtracker- losig your credibility here with posts like that... Issac barely a TS with max surface level winds of 37mph - rounded off to 40mph !lol


*looks at join date*

Ooooh of cooourseeee.
Quoting StormTracker2K:




Seems like Ernesto. They just can't find a solid strong center...
Quoting Stormcow6:
I am hosting a wedding in my backyard Sunday afternoon in Loxahatchee, Fl. Should I reschedule the tent delivery. I am not sure what to do. Canceling this wedding is not an option but I am nervous that it might rain. Any suggestions....
It'll be rainy for sure.
4271. yoboi
Quoting Seflhurricane:
rick knabb is no rookie he has worked as a hurricane specialist there for years, but he is a rookie as a hurricane center director


that's what i was saying the buck stops with him....when you are the boss things are so diffrent...
4272. luigi18
Quoting snotly:
Look at MSN

Looks like Isaac has slammed into Puerto Rico! Right?

I'd be astonished if someone there told me they were only having occasional rain with 20 mph winds.

no no rain no gusty wind yet!
Issac has a Full House right now.
Quoting StormJunkie:



Seems unlikely to me; or did I miss some wind readings from HH. Just don't see how it can become a hurricane until the decoupling issue is sorted out. Which it may be trying to do, but has not done yet.


So right, SJ. Isaac is far from maturing still. Very much a decoupled system still. The NHC (and models) are tracking the somewhat exposed LLC northeast of the main, obviously more dominate, rotating convection of the MLC. The LLC seems to have a nnwest movement while the MLC still moves more westwards. Evidently, the NHC still believes the LLC will become the dominate feature in the present; but, my lowly novice thoughts are that this broad moving system will continue to track more westerly.

The convection of the MLC will have to dissipate or get wrapped into the LLC for the NHC's current forecast to verify. Will that happen? Quite possible. I think that's the focus of the day - will that convection in the MLC maintain today or dissipate? Either way Isaac remains a weaker TS and unlikely, imo, to feel any real tug northwards to a departing weakness - too far away for one thing, and too weak, hence a more westwards movement still.

2 cents! ;P
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Here's where I see the rough center inside the broader spin


I agree salty. It is attempting to consolidate the MLC and LLC, but that is a very tricky task and it is certainly having some difficulty doing it. Until that happens, you are not going to see RI, or it suddenly become a hurricane; and those are the facts. With a 60 mile separation of the LLC and MLC, the two are basically creating shear for each other.
4276. Relix
Quoting snotly:
Look at MSN

Looks like Isaac has slammed into Puerto Rico! Right?

I'd be astonished if someone there told me they were only having occasional rain with 20 mph winds.


Hahaha wow! There's even sun over my house right now :P
Hurricane watches may be required for the florida Keys later tonight since if evacuations are needed they have time to do it which has been done with every other system that has brushed by, they will begin with visitors and then a phased from the lower keys up
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I see... it does look organized, but is it fully or at least somewhat vertically stacked yet? Or is it beginning to do so?
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The blog will go nuts come later today as Issac shows his face and once he does it will be one ugly face!
Will... you... stop... HYPING UP THE STORM?!?!
Quoting Stormcow6:
I am hosting a wedding in my backyard Sunday afternoon in Loxahatchee, Fl. Should I reschedule the tent delivery. I am not sure what to do. Canceling this wedding is not an option but I am nervous that it might rain. Any suggestions....


Have Moore's tie it down!!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Will... you... stop... HYPING UP THE STORM?!?!


Chill out.
Quoting weatherb0y:
I see... it does look organized, but is it fully or at least somewhat vertically stacked yet? Or is it beginning to do so?


it's beginning to do so.
Haitians already know it's coming. Tent camp leaders have been preparing to take as many people as possible out of the tents into hurricane sustainable buildings. Problem is, there is not enough buildings for the some 400,000.
4284. Chiggy
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Here's where I see the rough center inside the broader spin

I make 66.5W and 15N, if so then I fully agree!
Another thing to look at is the PR radar loop... clearly shows the rotation..., possible a MLC little a further south..
Link
Who else has 13 weather related tabs open in multiple browsers?!

LOL.
4286. USCGLT
I wonder how long it will be before the "Herbert" box discussion begins :)
The year of storms with no center. Looks great but all show and no substance
Quoting sullivanweather:


It isn't so much that the center keeps reforming...

It's more that there hasn't been a true inner core of the system, but rather a board tropical low pressure system. These center reformations are simply individual vorticies spinning around the overall broad circulation, which would be much easier to discern in a system with less convection. These little vorticies would eventually take over and become the dominant center is a smaller, more symmetric storm. But due to the large, broad, off-centered nature of Isaac these little areas of vorticity get spun off. As they spin off they sometimes drag the broader center in their direction but never far enough to change a longer term vector, which is why the storm 'center' (area of lowest pressure) has remained north of 15°N, despite all these apparent 'jumps' of the center. It's simply a representation of how the storm is currently structured.


Applause! Great analysis! Thank-you
Yeah, and the radar is down for maintenance. Wonderful. Trying to figure out where the safest place in my new rental is. I don't think it's the bathroom's cast iron tub unless termites have some magical protective powers.

Quoting Patrap:
135
WFUS54 KLIX 222033
TORLIX
LAC051-075-222100-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0045.120822T2033Z-120822T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
WEST CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GRAND ISLE
CMAN...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.



LAT...LON 2921 9005 2926 8999 2931 8999 2934 9002
2938 9000 2935 8996 2928 8995 2930 8991
2932 8992 2935 8988 2938 8987 2938 8983
2935 8986 2930 8985 2929 8992 2919 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 017DEG 10KT 2930 8997



MJH

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab MS Page

Main Text Page
4290. Gearsts
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The blog will go nuts come later today as Issac shows his face and once he does it will be one ugly face!
Is already showing his ugly face since yesterday,disorganized, decoupled, misaligned and almost open tropical storm.
Who else thinks that td10 is becoming aware of Issac, and it is rotating around it? Could this mean that 10 or Joyce would be sling shoted into the U.S East Coast ahead of Issac?
Quoting StormJunkie:


My bad! It's bound to be a CAT 6 in fifteen minutes!


Much better!
4293. bappit
Quoting StormTracker2K:



A big mess. The bands on the east are oriented north south, not curving towards the convection to the southwest. The center ought to consolidate near that convection but the big circulation is out of whack.
folks, before the tempers flare and things start flyin' around the room...just remember there is a little action button called "ignore user"...works much better than blood pressure meds...
Quoting Seflhurricane:
move it up to Saturday but sunday is going to be a real bad day here in southern florida gusty winds and heavy rain depending on Isaac's track

we had the same exact situation happen to us about 5 years ago in Indiana with a strong front that came thru. We moved the wedding and all events indoors the evening before and spent the entire evening rearranging the tiny old school house we used.
Giving this might or prob will be a stronger storm I would start working on a total interim plan and follow the NHC and local mets closely. it looks like this is a Sunday event so moving it upto saturday may be a good option.
Good luck!
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Chill out.
*look at join date* And I'm supposed to listen to you? *SMH*
Quoting snotly:
Look at MSN

Looks like Isaac has slammed into Puerto Rico! Right?

I'd be astonished if someone there told me they were only having occasional rain with 20 mph winds.


+1

Totally irresponsible journalism created for nothing but the 'WOW' effect.
Just got a tweet from a friend in Trinidad. She and her family are okay, but Isaac blew the roof off her cousin's house in the night.

Usually they're far enough south to be out of the main danger zone, but Isaac is freaking HUGE.
Quoting ncstorm:
From Henry Margusity

Isaac: Still Committed to East Coast of Florida to South Carolina
Aug 23, 2012; 8:35 AM ET

Commentary

I remain committed to a path up the East Coast of Florida into South Carolina. My reasoning is such...

1. Isaac remains weak and continues to come around the Atlantic ridge.

2. Weak trough over the central Gulf keeps Isaac east.

3. Historically, storms on the track of Isaac tend to curve north once they they move past Puerto Rico.

Steering flow would take Isaac west for a time before turning to the northwest once it reaches 70 west taking the storm close to Haiti and over the east end of Cuba. Once Isaac does get off Cuba, at that point the intensification starts and we have a whole new ballgame.

As for the models, Euro has trended to the East going from a New Orleans hit to a Mobile Bay Hit. GFS remains on the west coast for Florida which is a rare path. NAM/DGEX take the storm on my path. GFDL is trending east as are the NHC models.

Given that the center of Isaac is being adjusted almost every hour, the models are going to continue to have problems with the path.


This is why he works at Accuguess.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1011 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-231630-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1011 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

.NOW...A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE EDGE OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS ALSO ERODED EASTWARDS THIS MORNING
...WEAKENING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND TO WEST OF I-95 SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR LATE DAY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY WHERE THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY RAIN. BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

THROUGH LATE MORNING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF A
INCH OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO LAKE COUNTY AFTER NOON.
4302. yoboi
Quoting Tribucanes:
Haitians already know it's coming. Tent camp leaders have been preparing to take as many people as possible out of the tents into hurricane sustainable buildings. Problem is, there is not enough buildings for the some 400,000.


i think the US military is helping with stronger portable shelters also....
GOES East RSO visible loop
Quoting AussieStorm:


The only people I am worried about right now is the people of Haiti. Will anyone be game to tell them there is a TS/Possible Hurricane on it's way. I wouldn't, it could start mass panic.


There are some protocols in place to move people to safer ground....they aren't very good and aren't gonna be very effective...but at least there are some efforts being made...
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Issac has a Full House right now.

Well, I have 3 A and 2 K which would beat anything he has.
Even the NHC has trouble with his name. I knew I wasn't the only one!!

000
WTNT34 KNHC 231252 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012

CORRECTED SPELLING OF ISAAC IN HEADLINE
Quoting Bluestorm5:
*look at join date* And I'm supposed to listen to you? *SMH*

Don't ignore even the newest users.
Quoting Relix:


Hahaha wow! There's even sun over my house right now :P


MSN Smoke something, here still sunny in San Juan.
max mayfield just did an update on local10 that officials in the florida keys are likely to begin evacuations of visitors and tourists tomorrow and that a desicion would be made tomorrow morning
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Don't ignore even the newest users.
I'm not ignoring him, but I ain't listening to him.
4313. FOREX
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The blog will go nuts come later today as Issac shows his face and once he does it will be one ugly face!


I'm beginning to think that this will stay a weak Tropical storm and dissipate after crossing Cuba.
The heaviest ball of convection is doing a loop-de-loop at the moment in the S-SE quadrant and the coc is probably outrunning the convection somewhere to the NE. The Hunters are going to have a tough time figuring out exactly where the dominant coc is located.
Quoting popartpete:
Who else thinks that td10 is becoming aware of Issac, and it is rotating around it? Could this mean that 10 or Joyce would be sling shoted into the U.S East Coast ahead of Issac?

To far away for a sling shot. It could be effected by Isaac's outflow causing shear on TD10.
max mayfield also say ISAAC is starting to become better organized but ahs work to do and the satelite presentation is its becoming come symetrical
Quoting Elena85Vet:


+1

Totally irresponsible journalism created for nothing but the 'WOW' effect.


They are smoking somethinf there in MSN here in San Juan is sunny.
We OFFICIALLY have TS Joyce. 10-3-0 so far for 2012.

Quoting RTSplayer:
Who else has 13 weather related tabs open in multiple browsers?!

LOL.


Haha so true!
Hmm... the farther west Isaac goes, the farther west "future" Joyce could go. The ULL by her does not seem to be as pronounced as before too. Don't count Joyce out, she might get close to the east coast.
Quoting AussieStorm:

To far away for a sling shot. It could be effected by Isaac's outflow causing shear on TD10.
Joyce now, Aussie :)
4324. scott39
The convection is impressive with Isaac, but he has a ways to go before a hurricane happens. He simply is not stacked.
4325. wpb
nws miami giving information no panic. just watch keep in touch with nhc info.
nhc forecaster in is 6am write wed out of line. go read it
4326. Gearsts
Look at the low clouds where they are moving and tell me where the center is.Link
Quoting Bluestorm5:
You just joined few days ago... likely to troll on us. I ain't gonna chill just because you said so. What a dumb statement.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:






Yours is a pathetic post.

Please. Stop attacking people. Bluestorm5, would you like it if I said, "I joined 6 years ago, so I don't have to listen to you."?
Isaac looking healthy
4329. GatorWX
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Here's where I see the rough center inside the broader spin


That's exactly my thought at the moment. However, we should all be aware at this point that there has been a mean center and multiple vorticies rotating around it. This latest "possible center" does appear to be becoming dominant and one can observe banding features developing and wrapping into it. I think this system will look a bit better in about six hours, but it is certain he has a long way to go. Outflow is terrific which should help him ramp up quicker than some people think once he's vertically stacked.
Quoting sunlinepr:

Holy jeebus. Bolaven is HUGE.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Even the NHC has trouble with his name. I knew I wasn't the only one!!

000
WTNT34 KNHC 231252 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012

CORRECTED SPELLING OF ISAAC IN HEADLINE

They spelt Isaac correctly.
4332. MTWX
Unless Isaac picks up a good deal of strength over the next 12 hours or so, I'm going to have to go with the following odds:

West Coast/ Panhandle of Florida from Cape Coral to Panama City

60%

Panama City to Mobile Bay

35%

West of Mobile Bay

5%
4333. Relix
Quoting TomballTXPride:


There is the gap. Its either moving WNW now or it will soon
Full House for Isaac? Well if a Cat5 is a royal flush, Cat4 a straight flush, Cat3 four of a kind, Cat2 would be a full house. Isaac right now is like holding J7 offsuit.
4335. bappit
Quoting AussieStorm:

To far away for a sling shot. It could be effected by Isaac's outflow causing shear on TD10.

affected

Just a personal affliction. The effect of "effect" misuse affects me deeply.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Joyce now, Aussie :)

Yes it is.
Quoting Gearsts:
Look at the low clouds where they are moving and tell me where the center is.Link
indeed looks like a WNW heading but i would like for recon to comfirm but looks WNW
4342. CJ5
Quoting popartpete:
Who else thinks that td10 is becoming aware of Issac, and it is rotating around it? Could this mean that 10 or Joyce would be sling shoted into the U.S East Coast ahead of Issac?


No.
Quoting bappit:

affected

Just a personal affliction. The effect of "effect" misuse affects me deeply.

I always get those two mixed up. Why is English so hard.
11am advisory should be out shortly


If/when Isaac gets truly vertical, convergence looks to be dynamic for strengthening. Not happening in the present though - all over the place.
4346. snotly
Na, you'll be fine, I suggest you have the wedding on a large superficially constructed flotilla made out of duct tape, wire ties and bamboo, set sail for the Florida straits where it will be especially romantic this time of year and set anchor for the wedding of a life time... however short that may be...

DISCLAIMER: my lawyer is telling me that I should tell you that you should always consult with a professional before taking my advice, but what does he know.


Quoting Stormcow6:
I am hosting a wedding in my backyard Sunday afternoon in Loxahatchee, Fl. Should I reschedule the tent delivery. I am not sure what to do. Canceling this wedding is not an option but I am nervous that it might rain. Any suggestions....
Quoting AussieStorm:

I always get those two mixed up. Why is English so hard.
Because people are making up new words every second...
I guess when we have a US threat. It brings out all the trolls. Not what we need right now. What we need is the correct information, not misleading or incorrect information.


Not exactly beautiful outflow.
Meanwhile in the North West Pacific basin...

Quoting USCGLT:
I wonder how long it will be before the "Herbert" box discussion begins :)


Now you've done it! LOL
Well mission 7 has a bit of a long flight in to the storm. Should be there in a couple hours.
4354. Chiggy
150 year history suggests Fl landfall is rare..!!
WE HAVE TS JOYCE
4356. bappit
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The heaviest ball of convection is doing a loop-de-loop at the moment in the S-SE quadrant and the coc is probably outrunning the convection somewhere to the NE. The Hunters are going to have a tough time figuring out exactly where the dominant coc is located.

I would expect the LLC to be more easily influenced by the convection, so I'd expect it to be near the southwest hidden by the overcast. I'd think the MLC would correspond more to the overall structure we can see on the satellite which suggests a center more to the northeast--due to the orientation of the bands on the east side of the storm.
Quoting JasonRE:


That's what I see. Almost, and I mean, ALMOST a SW jog for a split second. It's hard to judge but if anything, I still see W movement. Nothing to show a NW shift at all.
Just another wobble in a long run of wobbles,still an average of west over the next few hours,then a change in direction.
No change with the 11am advisory i bet
Quoting Bluestorm5:
You just joined few days ago... likely to troll on us. I ain't gonna chill just because you said so. What a dumb statement.
Tomball joined years ago under another name... He had a password issue and changed his handle
4360. bappit
Quoting jeffs713:

Holy jeebus. Bolaven is HUGE.

Indeed.
Yet another storm that mysteriously fails to ramp up.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Who else has 13 weather related tabs open in multiple browsers?!

LOL.


I'm a lightweight, only 4 LOL but I'm a girl of multiple interests...or scattered some may say :P

Early this morn TD10 was lookin a bit poorly, so wasn't expecting poss naming when I woke back up.

Isaac's really trying to do a full blown Ernesto. At least on the annoyance scale ;D

Have some nice waves at the local'ish' surf spot today, courtesy of the remnants of Gordon, ta dude!
The tail of Tropical Storm Isaac has driven aground a yacht called Utopia at Prince Rupert Bay, Dominica, where there is a heavy swell coming in from the south west. Please remind me how to put a photo on here. I did it once but that was a few years ago.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I guess when we have a US threat. It brings out all the trolls. Not what we need right now. What we need is the correct information, not misleading or incorrect information.
Which is what I like. I am getting really annoyed.
4365. luigi18
Blue skies in San Juan a lot of dry air to the NE
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 65.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
FWIW...

5am Thursday 8/23/12

Summary:

At 5am EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Isaac was located about 255 miles south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico, or approximately 1,275 miles from Miami, Florida.After a wobble to the southwest and a reformation of the center of circulation last night, Isaac is moving west at 12 mph. Although additional “wobbles” are possible, a general west-northwest motion is expected for the next day or 2 as it is steered around the southern edge of a large high pressure system in the central Atlantic Ocean.

Computer model track guidance is coming into better agreement (the outlying westward models have shifted east and the outlying east models shifting west) and many of these, along with the official NHC forecast, take Tropical Storm Isaac south of Puerto Rico and then across southern Dominican Republic and Haiti tomorrow.

Beyond that time, high pressure should weaken, which will allow Isaac to curve northwest across eastern Cuba and into the Florida Straits and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Some models still signal a more westward movement across central or western Cuba. The official forecast track has Isaac moving across the Florida Keys early Monday and then moving towards the Florida Panhandle, to a position roughly 85 miles west of Tampa early Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased and are now near 40 mph, but conditions are favorable to promote strengthening. There is still a chance Isaac could become a hurricane before reaching Hispaniola, but the highest chances are that it may remain a tropical storm.

Isaac is a large storm, and tropical storm force winds now extend up to 140 miles from the center.

Any land interaction with Haiti and Cuba will likely weaken the storm, but warm water in the Florida Straits will allow for some re-strengthening.

Several Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance missions will be deployed today that will help further increase confidence in the long-range track and intensity. It is important to note that computer model guidance, especially beyond 72 hours, can still be unreliable.

Elsewhere in the tropics:

At 5am Thursday. Tropical Depression Ten was located roughly halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35mph. Some strengthening is possible and it could become Tropical Storm Joyce as early as this afternoon.

T.D. 10 is moving west-northwest at 16mph and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday before turning more to the north on a track towards Bermuda.

A new tropical wave has emerged from western Africa. Development should be slow to occur and the National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a low (10%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 2 days.

Florida outlook:

It is too early to forecast the extent of any affects Tropical Storm Isaac will have on Florida. Everyone in and near the error cone should continue to closely monitor this system and begin to review their preparedness plans.

There are no tropical watches or warnings in effect for Florida, but much of Florida is within the 5 day error cone. Remember that the cone does not necessarily forecast impacts.

Portions of South Florida from Palm Beach to Ft. Myers now have a 30-40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds within the next 5 days. Tampa currently has a 22% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds and Tallahassee has a 10% chance. All of Florida currently has less than a 5% chance of seeing hurricane force winds within 5 days.

Flood Warnings are in effect for 6 Florida rivers.

Another update will be issued Thursday afternoon.

Amy Godsey

State Meteorologist

Florida Division of Emergency Management
AND, the better convergence is under the MLC southwest of the official coordinates.
4369. bappit
Quoting AussieStorm:

I always get those two mixed up. Why is English so hard.

We are masochists. :)
Quoting bappit:
What effect does this have?


It's keeping the storm off-centered. The dry air punching into the core of the system along its western flanks is creating a pseudo-frontal boundary - much in the same way a dry line develops over the High Plains and sparks a line of thunderstorms. This creates most persistent convection associated with the storm along the southwest quadrant, hence elongating the center and pretty much keeping it from anything other than gradual intensification. As the pressure slowly drops and the storm slowly consolidates this dry air should become more diffuse and the storm will likely change structure quite rapidly.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Tomball joined years ago under another name... He had a password issue and changed his handle
I knew he was familar, but trolls have been pretending to be someone. That's why I snapped.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I always get those two mixed up. Why is English so hard.


Its why Australia should have been discovered by the French. 11 am should contain a lot of 'splainin regarding track and steering uncertainty I expect.
Quoting yonzabam:
Yet another storm that mysteriously fails to ramp up.

it's no mystery, If you read back you'll find out why.
Pretty much unchanged, still 40mph and 1003mb but moving 15 mph.
4375. emguy
Hmmm.....Has anyone noticed how Isaac is strating to look on the last few frames of the Puerto Rico radar??? Link
4376. Chiggy
Virtually no change at 11am - moving 2mph faster but still indicates a badly organized Issac... WEST he goes!
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.5N 81.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 27.5N 84.5WMAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

Issac point forecast 10 am CDT
No change in track at 11am.
11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 23
Location: 15.6°N 65.4°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Have to go to school will check in around lunch time
...ISAAC CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 23
Location: 15.6°N 65.4°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

.2N .6W due west with a little northward componet
4382. 7544
no cone change
4383. Relix
There we go. NHC says west movement, west movement it is.
BULLETIN FOR ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA!

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TO CATOSTRAPHIC GULF STORM TO IMPACT AREA NEXT WEEK…

August 23, 2012 @ 7 a.m.

Here is my attempt to forecast the storm brewing in the Atlantic. I have read different opinions, listened to Joe Bastardi, and taken into consideration weather pattern (including the position and strength of the Bermuda High, and upper level low, etc.), history, and my own intuition. It’s sort of like a gambler when you like to make forecasts. :)

Isaac is going to become a large and dangerous hurricane, possibly very large while attaining a status of category 3-5 which would make it major to catastrophic. However, the impacts on the Republican Convention in Tampa should not be severe other than a flood threat.

Projected landfall would be between Miami westward to the TX/LA border with greatest threat being between Gulfport and Panama City. Right now I’m calling for a landfall near Pensacola. It will likely be starting to weaken when it hits and should be taking a more easterly trajectory upon landfall. This could put the greatest danger slightly to our east.

Stay tuned… LOL
Quoting LargoFl:
Gov. Scott says Florida 'will be prepared' for Isaac


I am not so sure he is right about that. When Charlie was predicted to make landfall in Pinellas County it seemed that hardly anyone around had thier windowcs covered. I think most of our neighbors in Pinellas are complacent because it has been so long since we have had hurricane conditions around here. Unless the forecase changes I will put my shutters up this weekend just to be safe, and my neighbors will shake thier heads and look at me funny like they have every other time I put my shutters up.
Quoting Progster:


Its why Australia should have been discovered by the French. 11 am should contain a lot of 'splainin regarding track and steering uncertainty I expect.

We were discovered by the Dutch first. Not the English. But of course Our Island was known by the many Native tribes in the South Pacific, PNG, Indonesia, Malaysia. Maybe even African tribes that made it across the Indian Ocean.
Quoting hurricanehanna:
11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 23
Location: 15.6°N 65.4°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

track shifted a little more west
4388. hydrus
Isaac looks good on satellite, but is still have trouble organizing.
4389. scott39
I dont think Isaac will be a hurricane this time on Fri. I think if he stays a moderate to strong TS, then he would go over a bigger chunk of Cuba. This would weaken Isaac before he emerges over the GOM.
Quoting WthrWonk:
trolling

Thank you for your insightful, alarmist trolling. It isn't terribly obvious that you are trolling, considering your recent join date, official-looking post, and alarmist post content.

I hope you enjoy your short stay here on WU.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THOUGH...THAT NEAR THE 96
HR POINT THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA...AND AT 120 HR THEY ARE BETWEEN
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THUS...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO
FLORIDA.

From 11 am EDT Discussion
NHC has Issac at 85mph pretty much right at Tampa by Tuesday morning.


Quoting ClwHobbyist:


I am not so sure he is right about that. When Charlie was predicted to make landfall in Pinellas County it seemed that hardly anyone around had thier windowcs covered. I think most of our neighbors in Pinellas are complacent because it has been so long since we have had hurricane conditions around here. Unless the forecase changes I will put my shutters up this weekend just to be safe, and my neighbors will shake thier heads and look at me funny like they have every other time I put my shutters up.


Maybe your neighbors have more money than they know what to do with and look forward to a little "remodeling". ;)
Hurricane Ivan models were farther East (six days out) than they are with Isaac now.




Issac today

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
The fact that it is slowing down should suggest that it is about to take a turn. Whether it is as forecasted or to the SW it will make a significant difference as to the future tract Imo.
4396. gugi182
Southwest Puerto Rico. Just a sprinkle of rain beside that absolutely nothing concerning Issac. Not even a gust of winds absolutely nothing. Clear skies beautiful day here in this part of the island. It's all good to go grill some BBQ outside. Issac all big and mean and turned out to be a wimp!!!
4397. Chiggy
Issac now about 0.7 degs directly south of NHC forecast point - NHC verbiage says moving WEST - hmmm, need to move almost NW if it wants to meet the next NHC point..WOW
Quoting sunlinepr:
Quoting jeffs713:

Thank you for your insightful, alarmist trolling. It isn't terribly obvious that you are trolling, considering your recent join date, official-looking post, and alarmist post content.

I hope you enjoy your short stay here on WU.

I'm filling up my ignore list pretty fast tonight.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
NHC has Issac at 85mph pretty much right at Tampa by Tuesday morning.




It will not be on top of Tampa. It will be 120 miles offshore at 84.5W. Thus Tampa would not experience the worst of the storm or even hurricane force winds. Having said that, that track can shift although the bias is steady to the west.
4402. Chiggy
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
The fact that it is slowing down should suggest that it is about to take a turn. Whether it is as forecasted or to the SW it will make a significant difference as to the future tract Imo.


It actually got 3 mph faster than 5am/8am advisory... 15mph is about an average for a TS/Hurricane...
This is going to be very ugly!!!
Hope they are ready!!
Quoting sunlinepr:
Well now the FL Panhandle (My House) is official dead center of the cone, joy, joy! Sure hope this thing doesn't become a monster in the GOM when it gets there.
What we need is a good ole DJ DOOMCOM forecast.... Btw, most of us here in NOLA are not wringing our hands and sweating profusly ...yet
Quoting clwstmchasr:


It will not be on top of Tampa. It will be 120 miles offshore at 84.5W. Thus Tampa would not experience the worst of the storm or even hurricane force winds. Having said that, that track can shift although the bias is steady to the west.


Storm surge "funneling" I think will be a concern...
4407. 7544
alot of new conv now building to the ne side looking better
Quoting 7544:
no cone change
They moved to the WEST.
And there's some new convection popping up on the north side of the current cloudtops, closer to the track. No idea what that means. Will wait for wiser heads to notice and comment.

Quoting bappit:

I would expect the LLC to be more easily influenced by the convection, so I'd expect it to be near the southwest hidden by the overcast. I'd think the MLC would correspond more to the overall structure we can see on the satellite which suggests a center more to the northeast--due to the orientation of the bands on the east side of the storm.
Quoting hurricanehanna:

track shifted a little more west


In the long run it has shifted west - about 60 miles further off of the West Coast of FL.
Quoting jeffs713:

Thank you for your insightful, alarmist trolling. It isn't terribly obvious that you are trolling, considering your recent join date, official-looking post, and alarmist post content.

I hope you enjoy your short stay here on WU.


It only looked official for a few words. Then you get to "CATOSTRAPHIC" and know it's posted by someone who can't spell. ;)
NHC have changed their track to the left. the storm is now hitting close to alabama/ Mississippi border. Again this is assuming Isaac skirts dominican republican and go well north of Jamiaca going through central cuba. Based on its current movement of due west, I dont see how this happens. The only thing everyone seems to count on is a sudden surge in intensity pulling the storm northward
On the bright side it looks like the upper Texas Coast will be in for some great weather! Will be praying for those affected.
4414. hydrus
Some of those model runs worry me terribly.
WOW, watching the Weather Channel right now, you would think we were in a Andrew or Katrina situation. It's just ridiculous.
4417. Dakster
Quoting StormPro:
What we need is a good ole DJ DOOMCOM forecast.... Btw, most of us here in NOLA are not wringing our hands and sweating profusly ...yet


I see a key word in your post... Yet....

4418. VR46L
Maybe it wont be Florida DOOM .. Just sayin

4419. Chiggy
Quoting opal92nwf:
Hurricane Ivan models were farther East (six days out) than they are with Isaac now.




Issac today

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

150 year HIstory suggests that FL landfall is rare for storms in Issac's position
Joyce appears to be a fish....
Here in Alabama I am keeping a wary eye on this one. I am enjoying reading all the info and opinions on here this morning.Teh East West cone movement back and forth has been espcially amusing.
Quoting samiam1234:
does florida even want this crap which will hardly put out 20 mph winds..this wouldnt even get them one day of work... Let tx or louisiana have this.. florida only accepts cat 2 or greater :)


REALLY? No thank you from Texas
Quoting StormPro:
What we need is a good ole DJ DOOMCOM forecast.... Btw, most of us here in NOLA are not wringing our hands and sweating profusly ...yet


No but we've all got our trusty Official Nash Roberts ™ Black Markers out.
According to the weather channel we officially have TS Joyce.
4426. yoboi
Quoting mikatnight:


if ya overlay the cones from the past 48 hrs it's more and more west...
Quoting samiam1234:
NHC have changed their track to the left. the storm is now hitting close to alabama/ Mississippi border. Again this is assuming Isaac skirts dominican republican and go well north of Jamiaca going through central cuba. Based on its current movement of due west, I dont see how this happens. The only thing everyone seems to count on is a sudden surge in intensity pulling the storm northward


The Northeastern tip of Florida is already out of the cone. I wonder what Levi's take is. He's been saying East of FL all along.
Just for the heck of it, based on previous thoughts, current obs, I'm gonna say Isaac will likely totally miss Hispaniola. And, Jamaica will start putting up RED flags.
4429. kwgirl
Quoting Stormcow6:
I am hosting a wedding in my backyard Sunday afternoon in Loxahatchee, Fl. Should I reschedule the tent delivery. I am not sure what to do. Canceling this wedding is not an option but I am nervous that it might rain. Any suggestions....
You should be good. The storm will still be south of you. It is projected to be over Cuba on Sunday. Just make sure that tent gets striked by Monday AM.
Joyce is here!
21Aug.06pmGMT: 15.3n53.2w (279.9* West@11.8knots) 35knots, 1005millibars, TropicalStorm
22Aug.12amGMT: 15.4n54.8w (273.9* West@15.5knots) 35knots, 1006millibars, TS
22Aug.06amGMT: 15.5n56.5w (273.7* West@16.4knots) 40knots, 1003millibars, TS
22Aug.12pmGMT: 15.9n58.5w (281.9*WNW@19.7knots) 40knots, 1006millibars, TS
22Aug.06pmGMT: 15.9n60.4w (270.3* West@18.3knots) 40knots, 1004millibars, TS
23Aug.12amGMT: 15.8n62.2w (267.0* West@17.4knots) 40knots, 1004millibars, TS

DSD-LaDesirade :: GBJ-Marie-Galante :: :: HTB-Terre-de-Bas :: DOM-Dominica

The easternmost dot is where TropicalDepressionNine became TropicalStormIsaac
The dot to the right of GBJ is TS.Isaac's 22Aug.06pmGMT position
The westernmost dot is TS.Isaac's 23Aug.12amGMT position

On 22August at ~8:54pmGMT, TS.Isaac made passage over Marie-Galante (GBJ)
On 22August at ~10:03pmGMT, TS.Isaac made passage over Terre-de-Bas (HTB)

Copy&paste stt, dsd, dom, 15.3n53.2w-15.4n54.8w, 15.4n54.8w-15.5n56.5w, 15.5n56.5w-15.9n58.5w, 15.9n58.5w-15.9n60.4w, 15.9n60.4w-15.8n62.2w, 15.9n60.4w-gbj, 15.9n60.4w-htb into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The previous mapping for comparison
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
22Aug.06pmGMT: 15.9n60.4w (270.3* West@18.3knots) 40knots, 1004millibars, TS
23Aug.12amGMT: 15.8n62.2w (267.0* West@17.4knots) 40knots, 1004millibars, TS
23Aug.06amGMT's numbers are below, before 23Aug.12pmGMT's
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormIsaac for 23August12pmGMT
MinimumPressure decreased from 1004millibars to 1003millibars
MaxSusWinds held to 40knots(46mph)74km/h to35knots(40.3mph)65km/h
Vector changed from 256.8*WSW@14.8mph(23.8km/h)] to 265.6*West@14.5mph(23.3km/h)

PUZ-PuertoCabezas :: PVA-Providencia :: LIO-Limon :: PTP-Guadeloupe :: DOM-Dominica ::

The easternmost dot is Isaac's position at the beginning of its 2nd day as a TropicalStorm
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Isaac's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Isaac's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29kilometres) to a coastline
23Aug.12amGMT: TS.Issac had been headed for passage over LagunaLayasiksa (bottom,PUZdumbbell)
23Aug.06amGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for passage over Portete (top,LIOblob)
23Aug.12pmGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for passage ~3.8miles(6.2kilometres)North of Providencia in ~3days2hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste peu, ptp, dom, 15.9n60.4w-15.8n62.2w, 15.9n60.4w-13.51n83.54w, puz, 15.8n62.2w-15.5n63.5w, 15.8n62.2w-10.019n83.115w, lio, 15.5n63.5w-15.4n64.8w, 15.5n63.5w-13.452n81.381w, 13.397n81.372w-13.4522n81.381w, pva into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
4432. emguy
Quoting opal92nwf:
Hurricane Ivan models were farther East (six days out) than they are with Isaac now.




Issac today

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">


Huge difference between Ivan and Isaac is that Isaac's models have been generally locked in on the same thinking for days.

Ivan on the other hand had a terrible history of predicting an early turn...and on each run it just backed the turn up an additional 6 hours until Ivan had no choice but to turn. Model runs earlier in the lifecycle actually were predicting Ivan would turn out to sea.
Quoting AussieStorm:

it's no mystery, If you read back you'll find out why.


Well, with over 4,000 posts, I don't have the time for that. It was a bit of a mystery why so many failed to strengthen last season, and this season is a continuation of that. 'Lack of vertical instability' was suggested for last season's duds.
Accuguess which Chucktown coined earlier was hilarious. They've come a long way since Katrina and Rita in that they tend to now not give a forecast that is utterly different and contradicting to what the NHC says. Can be argued their forecasting got some folks killed in Katrina and Rita.
Quoting bappit:

We are masochists. :)


I'm either a misogynist or a mechanic ... I keep forgetting ...

Quoting clwstmchasr:


It will not be on top of Tampa. It will be 120 miles offshore at 84.5W. Thus Tampa would not experience the worst of the storm or even hurricane force winds. Having said that, that track can shift although the bias is steady to the west.
Yes unfortunately StormTracker2K may not get his storm in CFL after all, and will probably start calling out peoples forecasts and saying he is right and they are wrong.  hehe.
Convection blowing up over Hispanola due to topographic lift, could be bad for Haiti.
Isaac really starting to look like he's FINALLY getting his act together on satellite:


Quoting hurricanejunky:
Isaac really starting to look like he's FINALLY getting his act together on satellite:




heard that before
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
The fact that it is slowing down should suggest that it is about to take a turn. Whether it is as forecasted or to the SW it will make a significant difference as to the future tract Imo.

You need to check your info, Isaac has actually forward speed.

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 10
1100 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 9
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
200 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H

Also note the slight turn. From 260 degrees at 2am to the current(11am) 275 degrees.
4441. yoboi
Quoting uptxcoast:
On the bright side it looks like the upper Texas Coast will be in for some great weather! Will be praying for those affected.


it has not made the turn yet still heading west...
Quoting Chiggy:

150 year HIstory suggests that FL landfall is rare for storms in Issac's position


Climatology also suggests it is nigh impossible for a major hurricane to go from west to east in the Caribbean. Yet it happened a few years ago.
Quoting opal92nwf:
WOW, watching the Weather Channel right now, you would think we were in a Andrew or Katrina situation. It's just ridiculous.


Have to admit, living in Caribbean - the level of "activity" and "narrative intensity" on TWC are somewhat different to what I am used to - all said, however, the attention and addition of new graphics has to be a bonus compared to the old norm!

The "attractive talking heads" still grate though IMHO.

I would almost cynically say that the TWC have an upcoming IPO on the market
By the way.......Good morning RitaEvac and all bloggers...... :)
4446. bappit
.
That latest track is much more in line with what's been going on with Isaac.

I'm interested to see what the GFS info will show and it's effect on the next NHC forecast. I expect it will be more in line with the ECMWF and now NHC tracks
Quoting opal92nwf:
Hurricane Ivan models were farther East (six days out) than they are with Isaac now.




Issac today

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">


XTRP model has this thing headed to Texas, but it's clearly an outlier and will eventually swing back in line with the other models, as time goes by.
water vapor

Quoting HurricaneGroupie:
Joyce is here!

Did you finally press F5 on the NHC page? LOL.
Wind Fields for Isaac
Last Updated On 8/23/2012 3:00:00 PM GMT

It was bound to happen after I moved from South Florida (Andrew survivor) to the Tallahassee area 12 years ago.......Doom for me here next week if the current track pans out...... :)
Quoting VR46L:
Maybe it wont be Florida DOOM .. Just sayin



no, but even worse, katrina-esque...


I am expecting this Westerly trend to continue, since this storm does not seem like it can get its act together. The fact that it sped up in the last advisory and the lack of any strengthening, actually it weakened a bit, is an indicator that this Western trend will continue.

I think the Euro model picked up on this Western trend, and now it seems to be panning out as we go further into the forecast period. I am thinking this it will go on a more NW course as it enters the gulf with the Trough present in the region. I am then expecting it move into the coast somewhere around LA/MS/AL just given the trend so far.

I don't see this as an East Coast event, and just don't see the Bermuda High weakening as much as they it will or the trough being that deep or strong. I think we ought to see a track that is somewhere between Katrina and Ivan, but now its all a wait and see game.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Isaac really starting to look like he's FINALLY getting his act together on satellite:




Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, Ernesto...
Quoting jeffs713:


Climatology also suggests it is nigh impossible for a major hurricane to go from west to east in the Caribbean. Yet it happened a few years ago.


Who said anything about a major hurricane? Last time I checked Isaac was a 40mph TS.
Quoting bappit:

Sounds good, makes a good narrative, but for a dry line effect like you suggest there would have to be dry air at the surface. In fact, there is a lot of low level moisture to the west as shown on the TPW. The NHC is talking about dry air aloft. Convection can form with that, but it cannot last.



Why does that loop say 2011??
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Us here in Louisiana are monitoring.... esp me I got softball tournaments coming up...
4461. HrDelta
Quoting Tribucanes:
Accuguess which Chucktown coined earlier was hilarious. They've come a long way since Katrina and Rita in that they tend to now not give a forecast that is utterly different and contradicting to what the NHC says. Can be argued their forecasting got some folks killed in Katrina and Rita.


Hey, I said that yesterday. With a great dollop of anger too.

So, here's a question. Why did Issac weaken overnight?

Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
By the way.......Good morning RitaEvac and all bloggers...... :)


good morning chasey. glad isaac isn't coming to la/tx. the weather here is fairly comfortable now
Quoting oracle28:


XTRP model has this thing headed to Texas, but it's clearly an outlier and will eventually swing back in line with the other models, as time goes by.
That joke again? That was old and worn out four years ago. What other zany antics do you have in store for us, Uncle Milty? A hand buzzer? A lapel flower that squirts water? ;-)
4464. bappit
Quoting AussieStorm:


Why does that loop say 2011??

Wrong loop.

Here.
4465. FOREX
Quoting 69Viking:
Well now the FL Panhandle (My House) is official dead center of the cone, joy, joy! Sure hope this thing doesn't become a monster in the GOM when it gets there.


Where in the Panhandle is your house? I live in Panama City Beach exactly one mile from the gulf. Given my Wife and I live paycheck to paycheck right now, a direct hit here would really hurt us.
Quoting oracle28:


XTRP model has this thing headed to Texas, but it's clearly an outlier and will eventually swing back in line with the other models, as time goes by.


XTRP is not a model, it an extrapolation, just extrapolating where this would go if it continued at the current vector
4467. FOREX
Quoting Neapolitan:
That joke again? That was old and worn out four years ago. What other zany antics do you have in store for us, Uncle Milty? A hand buzzer? A lapel flower that squirts water? ;-)


lmao
Quoting Chiggy:

150 year HIstory suggests that FL landfall is rare for storms in Issac's position


But they're all over the place still really. Prob is, even with better computer models and having the old data to compare, hardly anytime will the conditions be exactly the same as for a previous storm, so still so much chance with the forecast still. Even if it's just the difference in how strong a ridge is, or ridge to storm strength etc, can make it track diff than a previous storm. I'm still waiting to see if he takes that turn. Someone from Jamaica was on here this morning very concerned as no one was preparing there and no official word it seems, despite being on the track of some models.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Just for the heck of it, based on previous thoughts, current obs, I'm gonna say Isaac will likely totally miss Hispaniola. And, Jamaica will start putting up RED flags.

Is that your "forecast" or a throw-away scare mongering line?
Quoting clwstmchasr:


The Northeastern tip of Florida is already out of the cone. I wonder what Levi's take is. He's been saying East of FL all along.

So should we start watching closer over here in Ms? My first time to ever post, just love reading everyone elses post. This site really is very good cause it helps people to prepare.
Quoting jeffs713:


Climatology also suggests it is nigh impossible for a major hurricane to go from west to east in the Caribbean. Yet it happened a few years ago.


its happened a few times in recent years actually
omar, lenny
west-to -east plots

EXTREMELY awesome for surfing.



4472. Chiggy
Quoting jeffs713:


Climatology also suggests it is nigh impossible for a major hurricane to go from west to east in the Caribbean. Yet it happened a few years ago.

Sure..I didn't say "zero chance" BUT the picture was indicative of the odds on FL landfall..! It's a good statistics since it is all storms formed in the past 150 years in Aug in the vicinity of Issac.
You need to pull up a similar statistics for storms in the vicinity of Wilma (presume that what you are referring to) going from West to East...
What a very active month of august. Joyce just formed in the catl,and it is very likely, we may soon see Kirk with the new disturbance which recently came off the african coast.
Quoting oracle28:


XTRP model has this thing headed to Texas, but it's clearly an outlier and will eventually swing back in line with the other models, as time goes by.


:facepalm:
Quoting serialteg:


heard that before


Yeah I know but this convective burst is HUGE. Still dealing with dry air even with that...I wonder how long it'll take to get past that...
Quoting HrDelta:


Hey, I said that yesterday. With a great dollop of anger too.

So, here's a question. Why did Issac weaken overnight?

Don't think he weakened a great deal. Just brought himself together which took a lot of energy. His two blobs of circulation were hundreds of miles apart yesterday. By pulling them together some of the energy and convection were certainly lost.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Who said anything about a major hurricane? Last time I checked Isaac was a 40mph TS.

I wasn't talking about Isaac at all. I was talking about using climatology as a primary method of estimating landfall or storm track. To be more specific, I was talking about Hurricanes Paloma, Omar, and Lenny.
Quoting yoboi:


it has not made the turn yet still heading west...
Have a feeling, when the intensity increases and he becomes more vertical, we'll see a turn. As we all know, the steering influences are not the same at all levels of the atmosphere. What concerns me, is the "experts" are much better at predicting track than at predicting changes in intensity which in this case will ironically affect the track.
Ok, "jeffs713" and "SherwoodSpirit"... respectfully, I am not interested in having a spelling bee on this site nor being drawn into petty arguments that are irrelevant. However, I do look forward to observing the weather together with all of you and giving one another room to practice our forecasting skills (or lack thereof). I will admit that mine are as an ameteur, but I have been studying weather patterns since I was a kid. Let's see where this thing goes and be as objective as possible! The input on this site is interesting. I just wish I could find more friends that are equally as interested in the weather. Now, the "forecast" that I made was with much thought and I might be way off but we'll just have to see what happens. I reiterate that my opinion is between Gulfport and Panama City with Pensacola having the highest risk.
11am update Cone shifted W and S

I dissagree with the current location however I will wait for HH RECON to fly in but I think they will find it further S
4481. Chiggy
Quoting serialteg:


its happened a few times in recent years actually
omar, lenny
west-to -east plots

EXTREMELY awesome for surfing.




In that pics I posted for ALL Aug storms in the vicinity of Issac, only 4 out of about 30 hit Fl and none of them were more than Cat-1 that hit FL. That is ALL I am saying.. no use in putting up rare example of storms going from west to east :)
Isaac reminds me of Ernesto. Track kept getting pushed further west because he never strengthened enough to feel weakness in the ridge. I don't think Isaac will ever become a hurricane prior to reaching the gulf. Despite almost ideal conditions these storms just can't develop in the Carib. This has been going on for a few years now. Very strange.
4483. Chiggy
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
11am update Cone shifted W and S

I dissagree with the current location however I will wait for HH RECON to fly in but I think they will find it further S

AGREE
Quoting Neapolitan:
That joke again? That was old and worn out four years ago. What other zany antics do you have in store for us, Uncle Milty? A hand buzzer? A lapel flower that squirts water? ;-)
Old jokes are always new to some. Breathing a little easier with the latest track update? It was a little closer to SW Florida before the update, just a little closer but closer nonetheless.
Quoting SSideBrac:

Is that your "forecast" or a throw-away scare mongering line?


Evidently, you've not been following any of my previous posts.

Does anyone think this is going very far in gulf? Really
4487. guygee
Quoting KoritheMan:


I do have one question: I see some people saying that the center relocation will actually denote a greater poleward component of motion at longer ranges. Why is that? To my mind it would be the opposite. For the record I'm nowhere near Mobile or points further west, but I'm not buying a Charley-like recurve into the western peninsula. Seems climatologically unlikely.
I would surmise the reasoning is that a southern dive means slower westward motion while the trough progesses, catching Isaac farther to the east.
Validity?: unknown.
4488. emcf30
Animation of all NWS forecast track advisories

Quoting clwstmchasr:


The Northeastern tip of Florida is already out of the cone. I wonder what Levi's take is. He's been saying East of FL all along.
No it's not. look again at NHC page
Quoting VR46L:
Maybe it wont be Florida DOOM .. Just sayin



yea, us Redneck Riveria folks in the Panhandle aren't part of Florida....just saying...
Quoting SSideBrac:

Is that your "forecast" or a throw-away scare mongering line?


maybe it's just a benign comment on a blog
When will this storm actually start strengthening?
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, Ernesto...
It still has to get by the forecasted shear in front of it.....Just saw the latest report..so much for shear in the future
Quoting FOREX:


Where in the Panhandle is your house? I live in Panama City Beach exactly one mile from the gulf. Given my Wife and I live paycheck to paycheck right now, a direct hit here would really hurt us.
Hmmm--I'm off 79, just North of 98--exactly one mile from the Gulf....
According to Point Forecast NHC doesnt think Issac
will ever get symmetrical wind fields

Link
4496. hydrus
Isaac is tightening and should form an eye by late tonight or early tomorrow..JMO
4497. hydrus
GFS 90 hours..
Isaac will be a western gulf storm. End of line.
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


But they're all over the place still really. Prob is, even with better computer models and having the old data to compare, hardly anytime will the conditions be exactly the same as for a previous storm, so still so much chance with the forecast still. Even if it's just the difference in how strong a ridge is, or ridge to storm strength etc, can make it track diff than a previous storm. I'm still waiting to see if he takes that turn. Someone from Jamaica was on here this morning very concerned as no one was preparing there and no official word it seems, despite being on the track of some models.
Most CV storms that affected Puerto Rico eventually hit Florida..
There is a break in the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic,this is what the latest GFS picked up on.SE Florida is a real concern now.Later today and tonight I expect a shift to the east from the NHC.
4501. bappit
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