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July 2012: Earth's 4th warmest; update on 94L--a threat to the Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

July 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 12th warmest. July 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, breaking a streak of three months (April, May, and June) when global land temperatures were the warmest on record. July 2012 global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and it was the 329th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 5th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July in his July 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.8°C above average as of August 13 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures have been near or above the 0.5°C above average threshold needed for a weak El Niño event since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that "The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions," in their August 9 El Niño discussion. They have issued an El Niño watch, and give a 71% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June, though.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low year of 2007 (blue line) shows that 2012 is fast approaching all-time record territory. A big Arctic storm with a central pressure of 963 mb affected the ice during the first two weeks of August, causing a temporary downward spike in sea ice extent. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. View of the North Pole on August 17, 2012 from the North Pole Environmental Observatory shows plenty of melt water pools from the warm summer the North Pole has had.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest extent in July, nears all-time record low during August
July 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its 2nd lowest July extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). During the first half of August, sea ice has undergone a spectacular decline, and we are on pace to break the all-time lowest sea ice extent record set in September 2007. As of August 17, the University of Bremen was showing that sea ice extent has already broken the all-time record; the Danish Meteorological Institute put the ice loss in 2nd place behind September 2007; and the National Snow and Ice Data Center put Arctic ice loss in 3rd place behind September of 2007 and 2011.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Gearsts
Quoting CaribBoy:


lol I thought you had put me on your ignore list last year
Wait nvm you are in.
By the MJO being weak, will it stay that way or change soon? and wat made it become weak for some reason?
Maybe this was posted, anyhow.... info

MSG-3, Europe’s latest weather satellite, delivers first image
August 7, 2012

Today, the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) instrument on MSG-3 captured its first image of the Earth.
[link]Contact Us

This demonstrates that Europe’s latest geostationary weather satellite, launched on 5 July, is performing well and is on its way to taking over operational service after six months of commissioning.

The European Space Agency (ESA) was responsible for the initial operations after launch (the so-called launch and early orbit phase) of MSG-3 and handed over the satellite to EUMETSAT on 16 July.

The first image is a joint achievement by ESA, EUMETSAT, and the European space industry. For its mandatory programmes, EUMETSAT relies on ESA for the development of new satellites and the procurement of recurrent satellites like MSG-3. This cooperation model has made Europe a world leader in satellite meteorology by making best use of the respective expertise of the two agencies.

FIRST IMAGE:

Link
1504. Gearsts
Quoting bigwes6844:
so that means no big blow ups at all?
In the peak of the season the MJO is not as important to get systems going so don't worry about it.
Quoting Gearsts:
In the peak of the season the MJO is not as important to get systems going so don't worry about it.
kool got ya. i just never understood it at all
I'm not sure I'm buyin' this one...

1508. JLPR2
94L's 850mb vort weakening.

I'm out, goodnight!
1510. SLU


121

WHXX01 KWBC 190632

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0632 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON (AL082012) 20120819 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120819 0600 120819 1800 120820 0600 120820 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.7N 32.6W 35.5N 29.2W 36.1N 26.3W 36.9N 23.2W

BAMD 34.7N 32.6W 36.3N 26.8W 39.2N 21.5W 43.2N 16.0W

BAMM 34.7N 32.6W 35.8N 27.7W 37.7N 23.4W 40.4N 19.2W

LBAR 34.7N 32.6W 35.7N 27.9W 38.1N 24.0W 41.9N 19.6W

SHIP 90KTS 78KTS 63KTS 50KTS

DSHP 90KTS 78KTS 63KTS 50KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120821 0600 120822 0600 120823 0600 120824 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 37.5N 20.3W 38.6N 15.5W 39.0N 11.5W 41.2N 6.9W

BAMD 47.4N 9.1W 54.7N 6.4E 58.1N 24.1E 58.6N 40.9E

BAMM 43.0N 14.1W 46.7N 2.4W 50.6N 9.8E 52.3N 26.2E

LBAR 46.8N 12.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 37KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 37KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.7N LONCUR = 32.6W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 34.0N LONM12 = 37.5W DIRM12 = 84DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 34.0N LONM24 = 41.5W

WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 90KT

CENPRS = 969MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 110NM RD34NW = 80NM



$$

NNNN
1511. SLU
625

WHXX01 KWBC 190646

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0646 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120819 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120819 0600 120819 1800 120820 0600 120820 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.4N 34.8W 15.3N 38.1W 16.0N 41.5W 16.8N 45.6W

BAMD 14.4N 34.8W 15.0N 37.7W 15.5N 40.6W 16.0N 43.5W

BAMM 14.4N 34.8W 15.3N 37.9W 15.9N 41.1W 16.8N 44.8W

LBAR 14.4N 34.8W 14.9N 38.2W 15.6N 41.8W 16.2N 45.6W

SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 56KTS

DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 56KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120821 0600 120822 0600 120823 0600 120824 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.5N 49.9W 18.5N 58.9W 19.6N 67.8W 20.1N 76.0W

BAMD 16.5N 46.5W 16.6N 52.4W 16.0N 57.6W 15.0N 61.3W

BAMM 17.6N 48.6W 18.6N 56.5W 20.1N 64.3W 22.4N 71.1W

LBAR 16.9N 49.2W 17.8N 56.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 67KTS 86KTS 96KTS 92KTS

DSHP 67KTS 86KTS 96KTS 92KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 34.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 30.7W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 26.8W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (T1214)
15:00 PM JST August 19 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Tembin (1000 hPa) located at 17.4N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.2N 125.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.8N 125.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 23.0N 123.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
For those that are blogging very late into the night...I just did a special update...as I finally got time to do an in-depth analysis on 94L...

This 94L update also has a link to my latest full assessment on the rest of the Atlantic tropics...feel free to leave questions/comments...
uhh? what the heck is the Gfs tryna do here?
1516. 7544
looks like whatever is left from 94l still makes it all the way to so fla ala the gfs last run

Link
Quoting bigwes6844:
uhh? what the heck is the Gfs tryna do here?

GFS fails to really develop the system...which is why it shows a straight west track for 120 hrs. It keeps it weak/shallow incapable of feeling upper voritcity features to the NW that would otherwise pull it more poleward...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

GFS fails to really develop the system...which is why it shows a straight west track for 120 hrs. It keeps it weak/shallow incapable of feeling upper voritcity features to the NW that would otherwise pull it more poleward...
oh okay. but thats crazy!
1519. NJ2S
Quoting Kowaliga:
I'm not sure I'm buyin' this one...



I HOPE THIS IS
Quoting Kowaliga:
I'm not sure I'm buyin' this one...



I LIKE THAT SCENARIO BETTER
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for CategoryTwo HurricaneGordon for 19August6amGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 965millibars to 969millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 95knots(109mph)176km/h to 90knots(104mph)167km/h
Vector changed from 81.1*East@24.1mph(38.8km/h) to 77.9*ENEast@23.3mph(37.5km/h)

CVU-Corvo :: SMA-SantaMaria

The westernmost dot is where TS.Gordon became a Hurricane
The next dot east is where H.Gordon became Cat.2
The westernmost dot on the longest line is H.Gordon's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Gordon's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the nearest coastline
18August12pmGMT: Cat.1 H.Gordon had been headed for passage 267miles(430kilometres)South of SantaMaria (bottom of dumbbell beneath the straightline projection)
18August6pmGMT: Cat.2 H.Gordon had been headed for passage 251miles(403kilometres)South of SantaMaria (top of dumbbell beneath the straightline projection)
19August12amGMT: Cat2. H.Gordon had been headed for passage 135miles(217kilometres)South of SantaMaria (lone unlabeled dot beneath the straightline projection)
19August6amGMT: Cat2. H.Gordon was heading for passage 88miles(142kilometres)SouthSouthEast of SantaMaria in ~16&1/2.hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste cvu, 33.096n25.71w-33.321n25.583w, 34.975n24.941w, sma, 34.0n39.6w-34.0n37.5w, 34.0n37.5w-34.3n35.0w, 34.3n35.0w-34.7n32.6w, 34.3n35.0w-35.655n24.842w, 36.928n25.017w-35.655n24.842w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
1521. VR46L
My !!! Gordon you are quite the handsome Stud... but please be gentle with the Azores

Quoting VR46L:
My !!! Gordon you are quite the handsome Stud... but please be gentle with the Azores


ANNULAR!!!
jk
But Gordon does look good, at least on your post. As of now Gordon seems to be weakening, with its appearance looking sorta ragged.
Latest image of Gordon:
1523. VR46L
Quoting Bobbyweather:

ANNULAR!!!
jk
But Gordon does look good, at least on your post. As of now Gordon seems to be weakening, with its appearance looking sorta ragged.
Latest image of Gordon:


LOL .got my one just a little while ago from the Navy site maybe they are slower updating images
1524. VR46L
I know 94l is a bust in the Euro models and is no longer the DOOMcane in the GFS models..I will be keeping an eye on it!



Look at the environment



What is ahead could cleanse and moisten the air...

1525. LargoFl
...good morning folks and happy sunday to one and all..looks like a wet setup for the week ahead around the Tampa bay area..then again these forecasts change from day to day huh...well anyway..Have a wonderful day everyone
1526. LargoFl
I take these model runs of 94L with a grain of salt ..why because NOTHING has formed yet and until something does form,whatever is out there is just a bunch of moving westward thunderstorms, we will see in a few days IF something forms, then the planes will go out there and the models will start REALLY picking up on it..until then we watch and wait huh
Quoting LargoFl:
I take these model runs of 94L with a grain of salt ..why because NOTHING has formed yet and until something does form,whatever is out there is just a bunch of moving westward thunderstorms, we will see in a few days IF something forms, then the planes will go out there and the models will start REALLY picking up on it..until then we watch and wait huh
Bingo Largo......Good morning.
Why do people keep posting what the models say when... NOTHING has formed yet.
Another cross-over???



AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY
Good morning. 94L looks pretty bad:

1532. emguy
It will take some time for 94L to develop...but it will definately happen.

The overall circulation envelope of this system is simply massive. In 27 years of tracking, it may be one of the largest, if not the largest I have ever seen.

That said, these large circulation systems in the tropics always form, but like a figure skater with her arms out, it takes a lot of time.

The only other note I may make about this, is with the large structure, he will not be as fragile as we have seen with other systems. Things like rapid fluctuations in intensity will likely not occur, just the same, this is the type of system that does not decouple...in fact, this is the type of system that becomes dominant and dictates other surrounding weather.

We've got a good one to watch in 94L.
1533. emguy
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 94L looks pretty bad:



Highly disagree. The envelope is broad, and it will take time for this to completely consolidate. When it does, it will be a large system. At this stage in development, considering the nature of system this is, it is well organized at this stage of development considering it's longitutde. This one is showing the structure of something that may be very dangerous down the road.
Morning
94L looks rather disorganised, and to use the terminology of the nhc development of this system will be slow to occur. the convection has waxed and waned, indicative that some dry air intrusion into the system. Like it's predecessors Earnesto and TD7, this area of disturbed weather is having great difficulty in getting it's act together.
Very good agreement among the dynamic models:



Statisticals are farther north:

Did it get any higher last night? (the wind speed)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 94L looks pretty bad:

Yup....No longer looks like a shrimp...Maybe a shredded jellyfish but sure as heck no shrimp.
1538. pcola57
Good Morning San Antonio..



And Houston..



Comin' your way New Orleans..



1539. Grothar
Good Sunday morning Wunderpeople! Up an at 'em!


If you click on the shortwave floater loop you can see 94L's circulation between the two blobs.
1541. pcola57
Yawn..Did Gordon go through EWR..
Or going through one?

Hi pcola57. Gordon must have reached the colder water by now.
1543. Grothar
Quoting emguy:
It will take some time for 94L to develop...but it will definately happen.

The overall circulation envelope of this system is simply massive. In 27 years of tracking, it may be one of the largest, if not the largest I have ever seen.

That said, these large circulation systems in the tropics always form, but like a figure skater with her arms out, it takes a lot of time.

The only other note I may make about this, is with the large structure, he will not be as fragile as we have seen with other systems. Things like rapid fluctuations in intensity will likely not occur, just the same, this is the type of system that does not decouple...in fact, this is the type of system that becomes dominant and dictates other surrounding weather.

We've got a good one to watch in 94L.


This one does cover a lot of territory. Andrew just looked like a bunch of disorganized clouds and the mets wrote him off twice. Then boom. There he was.
1544. pcola57
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi pcola57. Gordon must have reached the colder water by now.


Hey Chicklit..
it looks that way on MIMIC..and the Eyewall is seeming to responde in kind..what ya think?
1545. Grothar
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning San Antonio..



And Houston..



Comin' your way New Orleans..





Wow, you're up early.
1546. pcola57
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, you're up early.


yeah...
Rough night with Mom..
She's sleeping now though.. :)
Interesting to note that according to the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion the Atlantic high was centered at 27N 57W at 8 p.m. and was at 24N 65W in the 2 a.m. Discussion.

1548. pcola57
Quoting Chicklit:
Interesting to note that according to the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion the Atlantic high was centered at 27N 57W at 8 p.m. and was at 24N 65W in the 2 a.m. Discussion.



Thats quite abit of movement...odd..o-O
1549. WxLogic
Good Morning
1550. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:
Another cross-over???



AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY
could THIS be what the models had off Nola's coast by wens?..a crossover?
1551. emguy
As a footnote...don't forget to look at the Western Gulf today folks...for the spawn of Helene. There is some indication there are goings on over there. Check out the shortwave loops ;)
Quoting pcola57:


Hey Chicklit..
it looks that wau on MIMIC..and the Eyewall is seeming to responde in kind..what ya think?

I think Gordon's glory days are over. Except forecast to dump 5-6 inches of rain over the Azores.
Quoting pcola57:


Thats quite abit of movement...odd..o-O

A few days ago one of the meteorologists said it had been moving west at 15 knots. I haven't checked its tandem relationship with 94L but that's got to give the western track a little help.
1554. LargoFl
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Bingo Largo......Good morning.
Good morning Palm beach, had a good shower awhile ago, looks like this will keep up all day here around tampa bay..hows the weather over there?..looks like you folks had some good rains there too yesterday
1555. emguy
Footnote...anything going on in the Western Gulf is likely to be compact, and elongated on a north-south axis.
1556. LargoFl
Quoting emguy:
As a footnote...don't forget to look at the Western Gulf today folks...for the spawn of Helene. There is some indication there are goings on over there. Check out the shortwave loops ;)
yes for sure its something to watch..remember the models Had something there around wens
Meanwhile... a pic from the arctic taken from the Healy

1558. LargoFl
.............just scattered showers around the bay area so far
Quoting LargoFl:
could THIS be what the models had off Nola's coast by wens?..a crossover?

There are elements of the system that came all the way from Africa! And if it could regenerate into something else, that would be amazing. Still NHC at 2 a.m. said they were giving their last Helene Discussion.
1560. LargoFl
whoa..we have to watch the gulf mid week Tampa bay folks..dunno what this is or will be..
1561. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
whoa..we have to watch the gulf mid week Tampa bay folks..dunno what this is or will be..
didnt quite catch the frame but whatever it becomes ,comes towards florida's west coast according to the Nam
1562. Grothar
There has been the intrusion of dry air into the north and northwest of 94 L. this can be seen .with the arc clouds coming from the system in the northwest.
Good morning. This is the excerpt from the San Juan NWS regarding what is going on in the tropics that I find very interesting.

MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
WAVE THAT WAS NEAR 35 WEST AT 19/09Z. BUT...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAS
NOT YET DEVELOPED THE WAVE IS ADVANCING UNIMPEDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLIER AND EARLIER. AT PRESENT THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS IT
RATHER SLOWLY...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WILL ARRIVE THEN OR
SLIGHTLY EARLIER. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND AFRICAN DUST STREAMING TO
THE NORTH OF THE WAVE IS LIKELY SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT JUST AS IT
HAS THE LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT HAVE ENDEAVORED TO STRENGTHEN.
ALSO THE WAVE IN QUESTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING AT THE EXPENSE OF
THE WAVE AHEAD OF IT WHICH IT IS OVERTAKING. THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED THE WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND THE POPS OVER A MORE GENERAL
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING THE CURRENT TIMING TO
INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION WITHOUT EXPLICITLY DEFINING THE CENTER OR
TRACK...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO VEER NORTH AND TO
SPREAD DANGEROUS WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
FRIDAY...THEREFORE EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WITH REGARDS TO
THE PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS
ANOTHER WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

1565. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
if i lived on Hispanola I'd be getting my things together and getting ready for a big storm
1566. pcola57
Quoting Chicklit:

A few days ago one of the meteorologists said it had been moving west at 15 knots. I haven't checked its tandem relationship with 94L but that's got to give the western track a little help.


You know..I've really got to say it..Just my observation of course,but this has been the strangest weather year that I can remember..A year of excesses as it were..and deprivations..
Natures scales are un-balanced this year by many increments..
Possibly the rest of the year will bode well for us all.. :)


Is this what you mean by large emcf?


Link WV Loop CATL
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

...GORDON MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 30.7W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM WSW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 340
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

It's just not gonna develop moving that fast.
1570. LargoFl
1571. Grothar


NHC thinks it will develop into a TS
1573. Grothar
This is the FIM7.

1574. LargoFl
1575. gugi182
7:36am 94L still at 60%. Hurricane Gordon down to 100mph still a Cat.2 Hurricane.
1576. pcola57
Quoting Grothar:


#1562

Ok..now thats a pretty good graphic Gro.. :)
1577. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
This is the FIM7.

sure is going to be a nail biting week ahead for alot of folks huh..how strong it will be and IS it coming to my area and should I be getting my things together..
1578. LargoFl
1579. gugi182
Should we worried here in Puerto Rico. If 94L is moving so fast and doesn't wants to slow down it's movement speed?

Will 94L reach Tropical Depression status by the end of the day?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
...AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

It's just not gonna develop moving that fast.


If you read #1564 TropicsPR, the met thinks it is catching up with the wave at 47W. Now that would be something, wouldn't it?
1581. Grothar
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 340
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

It's just not gonna develop moving that fast.


Andrew was moving faster than that when it formed
Don't rule out the possibility of 94L going to the Gulf. It's starting to look like we'll be dealing with a pretty weak system for the next week or so, so its possible 94L goes due west, south of the Caribbean islands, and strengthens in the Western or Central Caribbean and gets pulled north into the Gulf. An alternate Gulf scenario would be 94L strengthening some in the short term and running into the Caribbean islands, weakening, and then moving west as a weak system for a while, maybe over south Florida or the keys, and crossing into the Gulf and possibly strengthening.
Some of the GFS ensemble members are on board with one of these scenarios, so don't be surprised to see the operational pick it up at 12z.
Quoting Grothar:


Andrew was moving faster than that when it formed

The NHC in PR suggested it is catching up with the wave in front. Then there are waves behind it. Somebody's gonna get wet!
Quoting Chicklit:


If you read #1564 TropicsPR, the met thinks it is catching up with the wave at 47W. Now that would be something, wouldn't it?

Seems like fast moving waves has been the trend this year.

Quoting Grothar:


Andrew was moving faster than that when it formed

I have to be honest, I don't know much about Andrew... That was a couple years before my time, lol. I still think 94L needs to slow down some to consolidate.
1585. LargoFl
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Don't rule out the possibility of 94L going to the Gulf. It's starting to look like we'll be dealing with a pretty weak system for the next week or so, so its possible 94L goes due west, south of the Caribbean islands, and strengthens in the Western or Central Caribbean and gets pulled north into the Gulf. An alternate Gulf scenario would be 94L strengthening some in the short term and running into the Caribbean islands, weakening, and then moving west as a weak system for a while, maybe over south Florida or the keys, and crossing into the Gulf and possibly strengthening.
Some of the GFS ensemble members are on board with one of these scenarios, so don't be surprised to see the operational pick it up at 12z.
we must remember the normal tracks for august hurricanes huh..either up the east coast or into the gulf and into the texas or nola region in the western gulf
1586. Grothar
Quoting pcola57:


#1562

Ok..now thats a pretty good graphic Gro.. :)


I have fun with that one.
1587. pcola57
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Don't rule out the possibility of 94L going to the Gulf. It's starting to look like we'll be dealing with a pretty weak system for the next week or so, so its possible 94L goes due west, south of the Caribbean islands, and strengthens in the Western or Central Caribbean and gets pulled north into the Gulf. An alternate Gulf scenario would be 94L strengthening some in the short term and running into the Caribbean islands, weakening, and then moving west as a weak system for a while, maybe over south Florida or the keys, and crossing into the Gulf and possibly strengthening.


Alot of "possibilties" right now eh? :)

Quoting gugi182:
Should we worried here in Puerto Rico. If 94L is moving so fast and doesn't wants to slow down it's movement speed?

Will 94L reach Tropical Depression status by the end of the day?


If I lived in Puerto Rico and it was tropical season time,I would be ready for anything my friend.. :)
1588. LargoFl
To pick up on what I said earlier, here are a couple 0z GFS ensemble members:





Quoting LargoFl:
we must remember the normal tracks for august hurricanes huh..either up the east coast or into the gulf and into the texas or nola region in the western gulf

Well, with the ATL High out there it sure looks more likely than it did last year. The question is also intensity with all that dry air out there, but with so many CV waves in such close succession the odds are greater that something will develop into a stronger landfalling system somewhere in the Carib Basin or the CONUS.
quite a complex situation developing in the catl. first there is wave at 47w ,there is also a weak low near 9n 39w and finally 94L. It appears that all three systems wii merge, judging from the speed of 94L.this will create a hugh and complex system.
1592. Grothar
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Seems like fast moving waves has been the trend this year.


I have to be honest, I don't know much about Andrew... That was a couple years before my time, lol. I still think 94L needs to slow down some to consolidate.


Here is a link for you, I think you may find interesting. That is why I never compare one storm to another. The mets had written off Andrew 3 different times. Only Brian Norcross was insisting to follow it closely. You could tell from his body language he may have known more than he was able to tell. He probably saved a lot of people's lives. Many could tell by the sincerity in his voice that we were going to experience something we had not seen in a long time. Now I am NOT comparing this to Andrew, but don't ever judge one storm by another.

Link
Quoting pcola57:
Yawn..Did Gordon go through EWR..
Or going through one?



Nah this is expect.

It crossed the 26C threshold late last night, and this morning it's already crossing the boundary of 25C and 24C.

It will either hybridize or die now, just a matter of time...

edit: but it still has a lot of spin and momentum so it will take a while to wind down...
1594. pcola57
Sorry..having to sign off for obvious reasons.. :)

1595. LargoFl
Oh boy, that guy from the Houston area yesterday was asking for rain in his area..by the looks of this radar he sure got it last night and into today......
1596. Grothar
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
To pick up on what I said earlier, here are a couple 0z GFS ensemble members:







Hey MA, I'll give you a box of cookies if you could not post that ugly purple and pink image.

As I wrote the other night, it looks like somebody poured Pepto Bismol on a purple popcicle. LOLOLOL
Quoting stoormfury:
quite a complex situation developing in the catl. first there is wave at 47w ,there is also a weak low near 9n 39w and finally 94L. It appears that all three systems wii merge, judging from the speed of 94L.this will create a hugh and complex system.

That appears to be a possibility that can be extrapolated from the report TropicsWeatherPR posted from the NHC Met in PR this morning unless I am reading it wrong (Post 1564). There is more than one wave out there, so 94L may never catch up and remain pretty disorganized, but one cannot forget the ones still to the east. I think that is the most prudent and probably best interpretation of what the met is saying.
1598. LargoFl
Quoting pcola57:
Sorry..having to sign off for obvious reasons.. :)

lots of lightning with that cell huh..stay safe
1599. emguy
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Seems like fast moving waves has been the trend this year.


I have to be honest, I don't know much about Andrew... That was a couple years before my time, lol. I still think 94L needs to slow down some to consolidate.


This one has such a large circulation envelope that forward speed will not affect it. In fact, the circulation envelope has become so large that it has turned the entire Atlantic ITCZ into a trough extension to the south...Which is pretty significant. 94L will draw in dry air to the north, but will be counterbalanced by deep tropical moisture it pulls in from that. In a sense, 94L has absorbed all weather in practically the entire MDR zone of the tropical atlantic, and has made it it's own...for good or for bad...it;s doing it. LINK
1600. LargoFl
looks like its going to be a rainy and stormy day all around the gulf coast today..
Some of the left-over garbage from Helene appears to be moving north and merging with the tail of the front, though the old mid-level circulation is still well inland near where it was 2 days ago...

Maybe this is what the models were "developing" into a TD or TS a few days ago...

It's probably just over-done by the models.
1602. LargoFl
Quoting RTSplayer:
Some of the left-over garbage from Helene appears to be moving north and merging with the tail of the front, though the old mid-level circulation is still well inland near where it was 2 days ago...

Maybe this is what the models were "developing" into a TD or TS a few days ago...

It's probably just over-done by the models.
yes keeping an eye on it thru wens,see what happens
1603. LargoFl
1604. scott39
Good morning, The common theme this season is dust from Africa. I dont look for TCs to develope into major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. The Western Caribbean,GOM and the East coast are where your going to see TCs possibly develope into Major Hurricanes. It looks like that 94L is not going to slow down until its more into the Caribbean. It also looks like that the models continue to bring it father W. Timing of its fast movement and the trough, will determine if it strikes the East Coast, somewhere on the Gulf Coast or not at all. Considering that Mexico has been a target over the past few seasons, I definitely at this point would not take them off the list. It looks less likely that the Islands will be dealing with a Major Hurricane.
1605. LargoFl
There is a flash flood warning for the Austin Texas area also.............BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
803 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 930 AM EDT

* AT 758 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLOODING OVER EASTERN DURHAM
COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF DURHAM SINCE 630 AM.

* LOCATIONS THREATENED WITH FLOODING INCLUDE PARKWOOD...GORMAN AND
BETHESDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER CAN CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES
INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUP TRUCKS. TURN AROUND...
DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY.
I see the intensity forecast on 94L up to 92kts. at 120 hrs. More chance of a recurve-- not before approaching some land though. The wave about to exit Africa could be a problem since it is at a lower latitude.

Gustav / Ivan all over again?


Quoting unknowncomic:
I see the intensity forecast on 94L up to 92kts. at 120 hrs. More chance of a recurve-- not before approaching some land though. The wave about to exit Africa could be a problem since it is at a lower latitude.




No mode runs are showing 94L going out too sea
This is a summary of the two waves closer to the Antilles from the NHC report at 8 a.m.:

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE ERN/CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 34W...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N35W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL GYRE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 31W-38W...WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE REGION ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 KT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N44W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N45W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION AROUND THE WAVE AXIS IS LIMITED DUE TO A LARGE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD MONSOONAL GYRE DISCUSSED BELOW.

Agree Taz. The NHC says still moving west. Scott makes a good point to keep in mind that neither of these waves has passed the 50-60W point yet. This is when KmanIslander will probably step in and be able to tell us where it will go lol.
1610. LargoFl
Quoting scott39:
Good morning, The common theme this season is dust from Africa. I dont look for TCs to develope into major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. The Western Caribbean,GOM and the East coast are where your going to see TCs possibly develope into Major Hurricanes. It looks like that 94L is not going to slow down until its more into the Caribbean. It also looks like that the models continue to bring it father W. Timing of its fast movement and the trough, will determine if it strikes the East Coast, somewhere on the Gulf Coast or not at all. Considering that Mexico has been a target over the past few seasons, I definitely at this point would not take them off the list. It looks less likely that the Islands will be dealing with a Major Hurricane.


Scott39:

IN all likelihood, Gordon is going to get upgraded in post-season analysis.
1612. LargoFl
Quoting RTSplayer:
Gustav / Ivan all over again?


oh boy
1613. LargoFl
1614. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE FLOODING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE JET STREAM DIPS UNUSUALLY FAR
SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
Keep in mind guys that models have trends. In 94l's case, they're trending to the west and 94l is only about halfway across the basin, so we can only expect that they will continue trending west for the time being.

Quoting unknowncomic:
I see the intensity forecast on 94L up to 92kts. at 120 hrs. More chance of a recurve-- not before approaching some land though. The wave about to exit Africa could be a problem since it is at a lower latitude.



There's only two GFS ensemble members that totally miss the mainland of North America now.

Everything else either hits the East Coast, or goes through the Caribbean, with the consensus track ending right in the same route as Gustav, Camille, Ivan, and a few other baddies.

This is not a good scenario if the storm actually develops. In fact, it's probably a terrible scenario, because the Gulf has insane maximum potential this year. Some of the highest values I've ever seen.
1617. scott39
Quoting RTSplayer:


Scott39:

IN all likelihood, Gordon is going to get upgraded in post-season analysis.
It was close, but Gordon is now weakening. Its possible i suppose.
1618. LargoFl
HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA STARTING
LATE THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BREVARD COUNTY COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PROHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR...AND MANY STORMS WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY AS THEY NEAR THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND OTHER POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.

FLORIDA IS THE LIGHTNING CAPITAL OF NORTH AMERICA. IF SKIES THREATEN
OR YOU HEAR THUNDER...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT RETURN OUTDOORS
UNTIL 30 MINUTES PAST THE FINAL CLAP OF THUNDER.
1619. LargoFl
HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN THE GULF WILL
SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE COAST AND FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON INLAND. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
OF STORMS OFF THE GULF EARLY THIS WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING FROM TAMPA
BAY NORTH ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
Morning All. A lil closer today.

Link to a webcam on Santa Maria Island Azores. Notice all the boats docked. Could be in for some gusty weather soon.
Link
1622. LargoFl
bouy report right near 94L.............Model: AP19
Initialized: Aug. 19, 2012 0:00 Z
Hour: 18 (forecast position for 8/19 18Z)
Model Type: Late Cycle
(released 6 hours after initializaton date)
Coordinates: 14.8N 37.2W
Wind Speed: 22 kts (25 mph)
MSLP: 1011 mb
1623. LargoFl
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...GUARDED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N57W...
1625. scott39
Quoting RTSplayer:


There's only two GFS ensemble members that totally miss the mainland of North America now.

Everything else either hits the East Coast, or goes through the Caribbean, with the consensus track ending right in the same route as Gustav, Camille, Ivan, and a few other baddies.

This is not a good scenario if the storm actually develops. In fact, it's probably a terrible scenario, because the Gulf has insane maximum potential this year. Some of the highest values I've ever seen.
We are getting closer to fall, where the troughs will start having more of an influence on the steering of TCs. I said a month ago that weak TDs or TSs would track across the Atlantic and develope more once farther W closer to land. I believe there will be more than one major hurricane to strike land. Unfortunately the masses will have less time to evacuate due to majors developing rapidly closer to land.
Quoting Chicklit:
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...GUARDED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N57W...


Yeah.

A casual look at the CIMMS map reveals this storm is not moving any farther north any time soon.

Maybe a window will open up in like 4 days or so, but for right now no way.

Even category 4 would not break through that...
a pleasant good morning, levi or Dr. Jeff is it possible that the monsoonal circulation to the west of 94L trying to develop based on early morning visible sat images it does seem to have a spin within its axis

More rain in Pensacola this morning. I think that it is now 14 out of the last 15 days we have had rain! Loving it!
1629. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:


Good morning Largo and everyone. We got almost 2" of rain out of the storms yesterday in Madeira Beach and it was the first in a while. There has been a lot of rain around lately but it was going north and south of us. It looks like a similar setup today but I don't see nearly as much rain in the Gulf yet.
1000mb



990mb



970mb



950mb



940mb



Below 940mb




Maybe...but then again, no way it would get that strong so fast, so it would already be past the weakness before it reached that intensity...
Quoting RTSplayer:
Gustav / Ivan all over again?




Lord, I hope not... I brought up Ivan to my wife yesterday when we were discussing the wave. I remember Ivan too well, and I really have no desire to go through that type of storm again.
Quoting LargoFl:
looks like its going to be a rainy and stormy day all around the gulf coast today..


It woke me up!
1633. Dakster
With the potential size of 94l it could take a little more time to spin up.
This could be a large hurricane.
Quoting Dakster:
With the potential size of 94l it could take a little more time to spin up.
This could be a large hurricane.


Mid-level and low-level are nowhere near stacked right now, and upper level sucks.

It needs to get about another 5 degrees west to find good upper level features...and maybe drift another half-degree north.
Thoughts from the NHC @ 72hrs.

I wouldn't live by every model run - take each model and see if there are patterns, etc. But one model run is meaningless and shouldn't be hyped because the next one could have a completely different outcome unless you are seeing a pattern.

The overall pattern of the models have shifted west over the past few days... that's the current take away. It is still WAY TOO FAR out to determine where 94L might ever make landfall.

Besides, it hasn't even developed yet and the way it looks this morning, it won't be developing today. Until we get a storm, these models are worth a whole lot.
1637. icmoore
oops sorry :)
12z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 362W, 25, 1011, DB

Link
Quoting Joshfsu123:
I wouldn't live by every model run - take each model and see if there are patterns, etc. But one model run is meaningless and shouldn't be hyped because the next one could have a completely different outcome unless you are seeing a pattern.

The overall pattern of the models have shifted west over the past few days... that's the current take away. It is still WAY TOO FAR out to determine where 94L might ever make landfall.

Besides, it hasn't even developed yet and the way it looks this morning, it won't be developing today. Until we get a storm, these models are worth a whole lot.


We don't take anything too seriously until it either gets classified, or the potential track just becomes to obvious to question.

Once it gets strong enough to classify, the GFS will nail down the 4 and 5 day forecasts to within a few miles on the center line, and about +/- 6 hours in time, as it usually does.
Good morning guys..........looks like an EWRC on gordon.
1641. pottery
Good Sunday morning, all.
Not surprisingly, it's raining !
Some flashes and rumbles earlier.
Pressure 1016, which is another surprise to me.
Wind ESE 10mph.

Interesting to read the discussion and look at the various models this morning.
Still a lot of if's and but's on 94L. But in the meantime it is a huge area of wet air with potential still for mischief down the road.

Keep an eye on it, I say .
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 362W, 25, 1011, DB
Saw that. The invest's winds are back down to 25 knots, and the pressure is back up to 1011mb--the highest pressure associated with 94L to date. It may still spin up into the monster some were speaking of yesterday, but it's got quite a ways to go to get there.
1643. scott39
If evacuation is needed this season, I wish people would use thier common since. If your on the beach or not far from it, then yes evacuate. If your in a mobile home and you live in a flood zone.... then yes evacuate. But if your are in a house that is farther inland and on a slab....then that is your best shelter. This would eliminate mass confusion outrageous Chaos and what I call end of the world mentality.
1644. GetReal



It is getting extremely dark to the west of NOLA!!!
Waiting for Kman and Levy's assessment this morning of the overall steering pattern for 94L this upcoming week. Is there a blocking high setting up in the Western Atlantic preventing a recurve?
Quoting scott39:
If evacuation is needed this season, I wish people would use thier common since. If your on the beach or not far from it, then yes evacuate. If your in a mobile home and you live in a flood zone.... then yes evacuate. But if your are in a house that is farther inland and on a slab....then that is your best shelter. This would eliminate mass confusion outrageous Chaos and what I call end of the world mentality.


double edge sword. if you stay theres a greater risk of death however, if you leave the streets may get clogged and you get stuck
Big rain for FL
Good morning everyone! Looks like I may have a little crow to eat, with my thoughts yesterday to discount the models not showing strong development of 94L.

The strong vorticity is still there, but the surface convergence is down with the ITCZ to 94L's south. Most of the deep convection is located down there, and the area of vorticity should race westward, independent of this other area of convection. There is a LOT of SAL evident on the RGB loops surrounding the disturbance to the north, and all the way across it's future path.

The area of vorticity resides in a stable environment, as evidenced by the image below. Anything below zero is stable.

Day 7
1650. GetReal


Remnant low that was once Helene beginning to exit Mexican coast. IMO

There is still a weak swirl.
SHIP goes nuts again with intensity.

191244
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120819 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120819 1200 120820 0000 120820 1200 120821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 36.4W 15.5N 39.5W 16.5N 43.2W 17.5N 47.5W
BAMD 14.4N 36.4W 15.1N 39.1W 15.8N 41.8W 16.6N 44.6W
BAMM 14.4N 36.4W 15.4N 39.3W 16.3N 42.6W 17.4N 46.1W
LBAR 14.4N 36.4W 14.9N 39.4W 15.4N 42.7W 15.9N 46.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 34KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 34KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120821 1200 120822 1200 120823 1200 120824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 52.1W 18.4N 61.3W 18.5N 70.0W 17.8N 76.4W
BAMD 17.3N 47.4W 17.6N 52.9W 17.3N 57.5W 16.2N 59.8W
BAMM 18.2N 49.9W 18.8N 58.0W 19.8N 66.2W 21.4N 72.9W
LBAR 16.5N 49.5W 17.7N 56.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 84KTS 100KTS 101KTS
DSHP 58KTS 84KTS 100KTS 101KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 36.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 32.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 28.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting Neapolitan:
Saw that. The invest's winds are back down to 25 knots, and the pressure is back up to 1011mb--the highest pressure associated with 94L to date. It may still spin up into the monster some were speaking of yesterday, but it's got quite a ways to go to get there.


I think it got bisected by shear.

I wouldn't expect any really development until about 42W.

Which kinda sucks for today because today will be very boring, cause that's like 24 or 30 hours from now...


All broad centers are below at or below 12N

you can clearly see the center of 94L
on this link at around 12N/37W Link
The tropical central Atlantic is much more stable than normal as evidenced by the current anomaly and the seasonal graph below:



94L they go up to Cat 3 and 4
dry air is preventing 94L from developing. it wont be a hurricane going through the islands but since the GFS has been trending more west, lots of the ensembles have this in the gulf now as a very strong storm. eventually this should develop
1657. msphar
great news. 1011 mb
8AM
Quoting GetReal:


Remnant low that was once Helene beginning to exit Mexican coast. IMO

There is still a weak swirl.




yep its moving off
8AM They go up to 101KT now
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 52.1W 18.4N 61.3W 18.5N 70.0W 17.8N 76.4W
BAMD 17.3N 47.4W 17.6N 52.9W 17.3N 57.5W 16.2N 59.8W
BAMM 18.2N 49.9W 18.8N 58.0W 19.8N 66.2W 21.4N 72.9W
LBAR 16.5N 49.5W 17.7N 56.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 84KTS 100KTS 101KTS
DSHP 58KTS 84KTS 100KTS 101KTS


Any of these tracks are gonna suck for a lot of people if that intensity is true.

BAMM ends in the lower Bahamas and looks to have just missed all the major land masses along the way, with PR probably getting TS or hurricane force winds on the south side of the storm. After that, it would hit U.S. mainland for sure...
Quoting osuwxguynew:
The tropical central Atlantic is much more stable than normal as evidenced by the current anomaly and the seasonal graph below:





Possibly an underrated factor, hindering cyclogenesis throughout the region. Last year, many expected storms failed to materialise or were well below predicted strength. Sinking air was suggested as a reason. It's been the same this year, and the intense drought is believed to be a cause.

Quoting stormpetrol:


All broad centers are below at or below 12N

you can clearly see the center of 94L
on this link at around 12N/37W Link

Still very broad.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM


I wonder why GFS is so far south then its ensembles?
1666. GetReal


IMO there is going to be some fireworks in the GOM as today goes on.
Remember Irene? Irene looked worse than 94L now. it was a naked swirl at one point. saharan air is a pain for these invests. bad news is this should be a hurricane when it gets to the islands but should take a more westward track. gfs ensembles show something scary in the gulf
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not the center. The center is at 37W 15N.


14.5 north 37 west
1669. VR46L
Quoting emguy:
As a footnote...don't forget to look at the Western Gulf today folks...for the spawn of Helene. There is some indication there are goings on over there. Check out the shortwave loops ;)


The love child of Helena still needs to be watched out for IMO...had some model support for either Houston or NOLA at differing times .. and there are some interesting bloblets in the western Gulf ... Just saying....


rainbow image


funktop Image

1671. scott39
94Ls COC is too broad to pinpoint the exact coordinates.
Nice image.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM They go up to 101KT now


GFS has had the same basic track to DR and Haiti now for about 30 hours, 4 or 5 runs; a few tenths of a degree north or south variation is all. Only thing it changes is slight variations in what happens after that.


One thing I don't understand in this case is why the "consensus" is so far away from the ensemble members on this particular run...
1674. GetReal


Nearly on top of us now here in NOLA. It looks a hell of a lot worse than it probably is....
6Z 192HR


I wouldn't lay too much credence to the improved SHIPS model as of yet. It has performed poorly this year, especially with Ernesto and TD7, which are relatively good analogs to our 94L.

If it gets going, than yeah it'll be in a position to strengthen, but I think that's much more an IF than a guarantee.

Plus looking on down the line, there could be some serious shear issue for 94L north of the islands if it ends up headed there...
384HR 6Z!?!?!



BAMM wants to be Rita or Ike, and the GFS still wants to be Gustav, and the SHIPS supports the intensity in either scenario.
1679. hydrus
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


I wonder why GFS is so far south then its ensembles?
One thing is for sure, if 94L remains below hurricane status when it hits the Lesser Antilles, there is a much greater chance that it could make it to the Gulf of Mexico. I believe that it will NOT make it to the gulf, but not out of the realm of possibility.
94L also appears to have slowed in forward speed quite a bit.
1681. scott39
Quoting stormpetrol:
94L also appears to have slowed in forward speed quite a bit.
agreed
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Thoughts from the NHC @ 72hrs.



My thoughts on that is they are going with the BAMM for now, since the most recent GFS disregards 90% of it's own members. I don't know what it does to weight it's averages, but it just looks...unnatural right now.
1683. GetReal


IMO a new COC is going to form in the SW GOM near that cluster of convection just off the coast... Welcoming back Helene from the dead.
1685. hydrus
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM They go up to 101KT now
And this does not bode well for the U.S. either...DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ERN CONUS WILL FURTHER
RELAX. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY WED
SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT EJECTS EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
ON D4-6. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY DRAWN NWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT KINEMATIC FIELDS APPEAR TO REMAIN MODEST.
THEREAFTER...A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY ADVANCE FROM SWRN
CANADA/PACIFIC NW TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/FAR NRN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. BUT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE WELL-REMOVED FROM
THE WARM SECTOR/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE N-CNTRL CONUS. THESE SETUPS
DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER-END SEVERE COVERAGE.

..GRAMS.. 08/19/2012


The wave just ahead of 94L has a much tighter circulation!
1687. pcola57
Quoting stormpetrol:
94L also appears to have slowed in forward speed quite a bit.


Now that my friend will make a "considerable" difference..a uh oh moment as it were.. :)
Quoting GetReal:


IMO a new COC is going to form in the SW GOM near that cluster of convection just off the coast... Welcoming back Helene from the dead.


It'll have a hell of a hard time getting re-classified, because the mid-level circulation is about 300 miles SW of the blobs...
1690. sar2401
Quoting VR46L:


The love child of Helena still needs to be watched out for IMO...had some model support for either Houston or NOLA at differing times .. and there are some interesting bloblets in the western Gulf ... Just saying....


rainbow image


funktop Image



There is also a large and complex hybrid front the stretches all the way from NC to Idaho. It is a cold front moving south in some places, a warm front moving north in others, and a quasi stationary front for much of its length. It's spining off surface low pressure troughs throughout the southeast that are responsible for most of the convection currently depicted from Texas over to Florida. Anything left over from ex-Helene could get caught up in one of these troughs, but don't assume its tropical in origin when there are so many other troughs developing from this front.
6Z 186HR

Quoting stormpetrol:


The wave just ahead of 94L has a much tighter circulation!
yeah but 94L has a nice anticyclonic spin to it :)
1693. hydrus
Quoting pcola57:


Now that my friend will make a "considerable" difference..a uh oh moment as it were.. :)
The GFS shows that whatever is left of 94 after crossing Hispaniola and Cuba is situated off the S.W.Florida coast. This is of course to far out to take seriously, but it does show that it still is possible for it to make the gulf. The 192 shows it skirting the Cuba coast near the Florida Straits.
Mostly along track uncertainty with experimental ensembles:



Lots of rain for today in S. Louisiana.



Rivers are all bone dry anyway, so that's not a concern, but there's still going to be street flooding from this for sure in places with bad drainage.
1696. pottery
Quoting stormpetrol:


The wave just ahead of 94L has a much tighter circulation!

I had noticed that too.
Very far south for circulation....
This Is My New Video Blog For Sunday Link
Press refresh if the old video is still up.
1698. hydrus
Quoting VR46L:


The love child of Helena still needs to be watched out for IMO...had some model support for either Houston or NOLA at differing times .. and there are some interesting bloblets in the western Gulf ... Just saying....


rainbow image


funktop Image

Looks terrible, but I do not trust anything in the gulf this time of year, and I mean anything...I have seen the most pathetic looking system spin up into a dangerous storm in a matter of hours. 1982 Alberto being one, which fizzled almost as fast as it formed. The No-Name Storm that same year caught everyone of guard too.
Quoting yonzabam:


Possibly an underrated factor, hindering cyclogenesis throughout the region. Last year, many expected storms failed to materialise or were well below predicted strength. Sinking air was suggested as a reason. It's been the same this year, and the intense drought is believed to be a cause.

High forward speed also--that will change.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Mostly along track uncertainty with experimental ensembles:





potentially a lot of mountainous terrain along that path. Not good for those in the path but, good for interests in the US. Not many cyclones survive a path like that.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Pinhole?
Quoting hydrus:
The GFS shows that whatever is left of 94 after crossing Hispaniola and Cuba is situated off the S.W.Florida coast. This is of course to far out to take seriously, but it does show that it still is possible for it to make the gulf. The 192 shows it skirting the Cuba coast near the Florida Straits.
Also your map shows a huge low in the northwest pacific--that will affect something.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6Z 186HR


Lot of ensemble members still developing it despite the operational not doing so.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Also your map shows a huge low in the northwest pacific--that will affect something.
Make that northeast Pacific.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Is that just rain? Maybe I read it wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. :)




So models are showing Houston storm. I thought Tillman was wish casting.lol
Good Sunday Morning to everyone...Is the reason for 94L's weakening due in part to the land interaction with Haiti? Those mountains over Haiti have been notorious for ripping apart storms.

At least none of the lows associated with the fronts are below 1000mb, so there shouldn't be too much severe weather today. Just a lot of rain.
Shifted back to Florida on the 6Z...?

No me gusta.
Brad Panovich9:36 AM - Public
Tornado warning cancelled but still strong circulation with this storms moving towards the Virginia line.

1710. SLU
Bouy south of 94L at 12n 38w shows a closed circulation
rather decent early term consensus among the hurricane models listed here. Population has increased markedly since yesterday at this time.



Quoting LargoFl:
could THIS be what the models had off Nola's coast by wens?..a crossover?

I was thinking another Ernesto/Hector Cross-over.
Could turn out to be a very real threat to the US coastline. Depending on the exact path of course, could get shredded.
Brad Panovich9:45 AM - Public
Impressive supercell structure with this one embedded cell. #ncwx #vawx

Gordan has a Pinhole Eye?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/hwrf/invest94l/ fcst/archive/12081906/1.slp.png

I've been wondering about that naked mid-level circulation in the W. Caribbean, which is now hitting Nicaragua (and getting some pop-up assisted convection).

What do you figure the odds are for it hooking north along the ridge and making the BoC?!

I think it's unlikely, but a slight chance.

Maybe that was what the models developed in the past runs, and not Helene's remnants as some of us thought?!


Maybe it develops in the E.Pac instead...
1718. hydrus
The 1997 El-Nino was impressive.This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Dec. 1, 1997. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.The 2007 looked impressive too.During La Nia, sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific are below average, and temperatures in the western tropical Pacific are above average. This pattern is evident in this temperature anomaly image for November 2007. This image shows the temperature for the top millimeter of the ocean%u2019s surface%u2014the skin temperature%u2014for November 2007 compared to the long-term average. A strong band of blue (cool) water appears along the Equator, particularly strong near South America. Orange to red (warm) conditions appear north and south of this strong blue band. The 2007 data were collected by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) flying on NASA%u2019s Aqua satellite. The long-term average is based on data from a series of sensors that flew on NOAA Pathfinder satellites from 1985 to 1997.
Date 21 December 2007
1719. pcola57
Quoting hydrus:
The 1997 El-Nino was impressive.This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Dec. 1, 1997. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.The 2007 looked impressive too..During La Niña, sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific are below average, and temperatures in the western tropical Pacific are above average. This pattern is evident in this temperature anomaly image for November 2007. This image shows the temperature for the top millimeter of the ocean’s surface—the skin temperature—for November 2007 compared to the long-term average. A strong band of blue (cool) water appears along the Equator, particularly strong near South America. Orange to red (warm) conditions appear north and south of this strong blue band. The 2007 data were collected by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. The long-term average is based on data from a series of sensors that flew on NOAA Pathfinder satellites from 1985 to 1997.
Date 21 December 2007


Wow!!..
Great explanation..thanks so much.. :)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Brad Panovich9:36 AM - Public
Tornado warning cancelled but still strong circulation with this storms moving towards the Virginia line.


Based upon that image you just showed, that appears like it could be side-lobing artifacts of the radar, and not actual rotation. Will load up GR2Analyst to see.
1721. Grothar
This just came out.

Quoting ScottLincoln:
\

Based upon that image you just showed, that appears like it could be side-lobing artifacts of the radar, and not actual rotation. Will load up GR2Analyst to see.


rotation is most likely dead by now anyway..that was quite a few minutes ago
Why Texas needs a tropical system, last 2 days several storms have gotten close to my house and I end up with less than a tenth of an inch, my first rain in 35 days and it just gets the streets wet. They said scattered and isolated, they were right, LOL.
1724. GetReal
Yet another storm heading for landfall as a typhoon in the West Pac:



Currently at 45kts:

1727. GetReal
1728. JLPR2
I see that after hours of weakening 94L's vort is now steady and recovering, the low ahead is looking sharper too.

1729. LargoFl
Quoting GetReal:


IMO a new COC is going to form in the SW GOM near that cluster of convection just off the coast... Welcoming back Helene from the dead.
geez that storm has 9 lives
1730. GetReal


Watch out MS, AL, and NW FL gulf coast, this is coming your way next....
1731. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
geez that storm has 9 lives
Will Helene reform and make a come back in the GOM
1733. ackee
THe Ecmwf WAS the frist to track 94L throught the carrbbean has a very weak system seem like the GFS and other model are joining the camp I think base on streering pattern and trend we have seen so far 94L could be simlar to TD#7 AND EARNESTO IN BOTH track and strength
1734. hydrus
Some rotation with the area that just exited the African Coast also..
most here are concerned of the development of 94L but what also is of concern is the moiture level that is associated with the TW the area of low pressure sw of 94L and 94L itself. this weather complex could trigger flooding rains for the islands for a few days
1736. LargoFl
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Will Helene reform and make a come back in the GOM
we sure must keep a good eye on it huh..water temps in the real high 80's..
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Could turn out to be a very real threat to the US coastline. Depending on the exact path of course, could get shredded.


If the GFS is right it might have to thread the needle between those mountains. 06z ensembles this morning.

1738. bappit
Quoting Grothar:
This just came out.


What did it come out of?
Quoting LargoFl:
we sure must keep a good eye on it huh..water temps in the real high 80's..
Do u have a map to show me where the COC is?
1740. LargoFl
Quoting hydrus:
Some rotation with the area that just exited the African Coast also..
my gues is, with that wave train over africa..then a very active september
Hi JLPR2. This is the analysis made this morning by TV Met Ada Monzon that I translated to English.


DETAILED analysis of the INVEST 94 L - Sunday, August 19, 2012Summary: Based on the GFS forecast and other models (European, HWRF, GFDL, etc.): If the guides are correct, on Thursday may be happening a tropical depression or storm (Isaac) very close to the South coast of Puerto Rico. (Eye: everything can change because as you know always there are variations in the forecasts, both path and intensity, and I do them this summary and warning for the sole purpose of you keep your attention to changes over time in the coming days.)

ITINERARY: From the afternoon of Wednesday, and through all the night must be increased (15-25 mph) breeze, even the arrival of rain bands. However, on Thursday from the morning the wind should increase of 25-45 mph with higher gusts, depending on how close or intense pass future cyclonic system of our coasts. In the evening of Thursday will already decrease the wind. In short, during hours of the day Thursday is that we will have the event of wind and rain, before noon. (Certainly it depends on its translational motion, and therefore this forecast may change)

STRUCTURE: I remind you that forecasts are based to a focal point, but this phenomenon is not a dot on a map, but a wide area of clouds, winds and rains. Therefore, even if the Center passes of 30-100 miles on the South coast, will have effects of rain and windy with very dangerous waves on Thursday. At the time its satellite presentation needs to mature, or needs sustain thunderstorm and clothe the center of circulation or low pressure. If you follow how it goes, you can achieve classification of tropical depression 9 today. The quantities of rain associated with the passage of a phenomenon like this South of PR may vary, but we expect accumulations of 1-4 "/ 24 with this picture.

"TRACK: I think that no major changes have occurred in trajectory forecasts. Virtually all models indicate that your travel will be by the waters of the Caribbean Sea; crossing the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, and passing just to the South of PR in the early morning on Thursday. I will continue to evaluate this.

INTENSITY: Have been changes in intensity forecasts. Models NO longer see a hurricane for our area. It may be in response to four factors: A trough in the high strains of the atmosphere which will take place near 55 %uFFFD W, the fact that come moving quickly westward, dust from the Sahara to the North-West of the system, and that has not started other tropical waves which then subtract you energy. This contrasts the factor of waters of high-calorie that face between 50 - 60 %uFFFD O. Intensity guides are concentrating on that may be a storm when near PR.

NOTICES: That depends on that threat has winds for PR, and is a long way yet to determine. In addition this determined exclusively the National Hurricane Center and the national service of meteorology of San Juan. There are no warnings issued. Some reminder occur it would be from Tuesday to Wednesday.
Quoting ackee:
THe Ecmwf WAS the frist to track 94L throught the carrbbean has a very weak system seem like the GFS and other model are joining the camp I think base on streering pattern and trend we have seen so far 94L could be simlar to TD#7 AND EARNESTO IN BOTH track and strength



Well, the Euro was the first to track it there, but it never had it above an open wave, unless I missed something.

When you have a system that disorganized it's really more about what the initialization data was than the model itself.
1743. hydrus
Quoting ackee:
THe Ecmwf WAS the frist to track 94L throught the carrbbean has a very weak system seem like the GFS and other model are joining the camp I think base on streering pattern and trend we have seen so far 94L could be simlar to TD#7 AND EARNESTO IN BOTH track and strength
Very possible. If it does make it into the Caribbean, it may have a more northerly component then the past two.
Good morning guys,

I see 94L wants to be a Caribbean storm, like I said it may want to be. ;)

TD Helene is going to comeback as it remerges out in the GOM and redevelop and hit Tx.

Hurricane Gordon has a pinhole eye. wait, what?!?! GORDON HAS PINHOLE EYE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Experimental FIM&GFS Ensemble more along the CMC, UKMET solution:


Quoting hydrus:
Very possible. If it does make it into the Caribbean, it may have a more northerly component then the past two.


a much N component

in terms of track I'm thinking TS Fay or Hurricane Gustav
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morning guys,

I see 94L wants to be a Caribbean storm, like I said it may want to be. ;)

TD Helene is going to comeback as it remerges out in the GOM and redevelop and hit Tx.

Hurricane Gordon has a pinhole eye. wait, what?!?! GORDON HAS PINHOLE EYE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Where is the center of TD Helene?
1748. VR46L
I see arrows.... and nadar signatures ...



1750. ackee
Quoting hydrus:
Very possible. If it does make it into the Caribbean, it may have a more northerly component then the past two.
agree
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Where is the center of TD Helene?

It kind of went into mexico and is dying. Some of the remaining moisture is moving north into the gulf coast frontal system.
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Where is the center of TD Helene?



its EX Helene
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morning guys,

I see 94L wants to be a Caribbean storm, like I said it may want to be. ;)

TD Helene is going to comeback as it remerges out in the GOM and redevelop and hit Tx.

Hurricane Gordon has a pinhole eye. wait, what?!?! GORDON HAS PINHOLE EYE!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Uhhh... No, Gordon doesn't.
1754. LargoFl
GFS at 132 hours
Quoting Tazmanian:



its EX Helene
i know could it remerge into gom again?
1756. Grothar
Quoting bappit:

What did it come out of?


I've been thinking of an answer, but all of them are bannable.
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
i know could it remerge into gom again?



nop its dead
1758. RTLSNK
Quoting Grothar:


I've been thinking of an answer, but all of them are bannable.


A wise man knows when to say no. :)
1759. ackee
Quoting RTSplayer:



Well, the Euro was the first to track it there, but it never had it above an open wave, unless I missed something.

When you have a system that disorganized it's really more about what the initialization data was than the model itself.
The EURO is very good at picking up on system likely track better than some of the other model even thow this seasons has not been a good year for the Euro
Check out all these waterspouts on lake Michigan yesterday. FIVE in one frame. Crazy rare experience.

YouTube - Lake Michigan waterspouts, Aug 18, 2012

FIM9 south of their earlier runs with a particularly ugly track here.

1762. LargoFl
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Uhhh... No, Gordon doesn't.



Gordon is starting to decouple, so it's going to die fast now.

It also seems to be moving slightly south of the forecasts from yesterday.
1764. hydrus
Quoting WxGeekVA:
They may need there shutters on the east side.
1765. LargoFl
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
FIM9 south of their earlier runs with a particularly ugly track here.

pretty much where the GFS puts it at about the same hours
Morning all, the ECMWF/GFS have continued to be very unenthusiastic about 94L. Though in all likelihood, if the GFS went north of the islands in the past few runs it would probably have a stronger system. The models have shifted more north, so it is less likely to have to deal with the trade winds in the Caribbean if it where to take said path.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Yet another storm heading for landfall as a typhoon in the West Pac:



Currently at 45kts:



They also will have 97W in the next 24-48hrs.





98W is also looking pretty good too.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all, the ECMWF/GFS have continued to be very unenthusiastic about 94L. Though in all likelihood, if the GFS went north of the islands in the past few runs it would probably have a stronger system. The models have shifted more north, so it is less likely to have to deal with the trade winds in the Caribbean if it where to take said path.


Hi Teddy. Do you think it develops before it reaches the Lesser Antille islands?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all, the ECMWF/GFS have continued to be very unenthusiastic about 94L. Though in all likelihood, if the GFS went north of the islands in the past few runs it would probably have a stronger system. The models have shifted more north, so it is less likely to have to deal with the trade winds in the Caribbean if it where to take said path.
actually the trade winds are very strong in the carribean. GFS and euro have performed terribly with the intensity of storms but track wise they are very good so we will see. right now 94L is getting hit with dry air
Quoting StormHype:
Check out all these waterspouts on lake Michigan yesterday. FIVE in one frame. Crazy rare experience.

YouTube - Lake Michigan waterspouts, Aug 18, 2012



Explanation?

1771. Grothar
Quoting RTLSNK:


A wise man knows when to say no. :)


Yo, Snake! See, you try and help out your fellow bloggers by giving them a nice new model instead of that purple and pink map they post every 5 minutes and you get an insult. :)
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
Where is the center of TD Helene?


Hmm I'd say near 21.5N 98.0W moving E


According to the steering once it gets out into the GOM it headin to smack right into the center of the Tx coastline like somewhere around Courpus Christi go ENE up to Galveston anywhere within those area
Not too often you see the UKMET and the ECMWF disagreeing so sharply.

00z UKMET 120 hours.
1774. LargoFl
94 does not look too good at 186 hours almost like 94 crosses over cuba, then into the straights like it wants to go back to the atlantic side huh
1775. hydrus
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
FIM9 south of their earlier runs with a particularly ugly track here.

If 94L stay south of the Greater Antilles, it is my own prediction that this will become a dangerous storm. Conditions should be at least marginally favorable by the time 94 reaches the Caribbean. Dry air should not be much of an issue.
Quoting AussieStorm:


They also will have 97W in the next 24-48hrs.





98W is also looking pretty good too.




with has busy has it been in the W PAC this year CA will have too start watching the lift overe has we get closer to fall has they get up in too the jet
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for CategoryTwo HurricaneGordon for 19August12pmGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 969millibars to 973millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 90knots(104mph)167km/h to 85knots(98mph)157km/h
Vector changed from 77.9°ENEast@23.3mph(37.5km/h) to 72.5°ENEast@19.8mph(31.8km/h)

CVU-Corvo :: SMA-SantaMaria

The westernmost dot is where TS.Gordon became a Hurricane
The next dot east is where H.Gordon became Cat.2
The westernmost dot on the longest line is H.Gordon's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Gordon's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the nearest coastline
18August12pmGMT: Cat.1 H.Gordon had been headed for passage 267miles(430kilometres)South of SantaMaria (bottom of short dumbbell beneath the straightline projection)
18August6pmGMT: Cat.2 H.Gordon had been headed for passage 251miles(403kilometres)South of SantaMaria (top of short dumbbell beneath the straightline projection)
19August12amGMT: Cat2. H.Gordon had been headed for passage 135miles(217kilometres)South of SantaMaria (bottom of long dumbbell beneath the straightline projection)
19August6amGMT: Cat2. H.Gordon had been headed for passage 88miles(142kilometres)SSEast of SantaMaria (top of long dumbbell beneath the straightline projection)
19August12pmGMT: Cat2. H.Gordon was heading for passage 36miles(57kilometres)SouthSouthEast of SantaMaria in ~14hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste cvu, 33.096n25.71w-33.321n25.583w, 34.975n24.941w-35.655n24.842w, sma, 34.0n39.6w-34.0n37.5w, 34.0n37.5w-34.3n35.0w, 34.3n35.0w-34.7n32.6w, 34.7n32.6w-35.2n30.6w, 34.7n32.6w-36.424n24.872w, 36.928n25.017w-36.424n24.872w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
1778. ackee
WHat will become of 94L ?

A TS
B hurricane
C TD
D Open wave
Quoting hydrus:
If 94L stay south of the Greater Antilles, it is my own prediction that this will become a dangerous storm. Conditions should be at least marginally favorable by the time 94 reaches the Caribbean. Dry air should not be much of an issue.


I have to agree with ya on that one...the other 2 storms had to battle desert conditions in the Caribbean. Looks as though the Caribbean is moistening up quite well right now...
1780. LargoFl
YES according to this run of the GFS, 94 crosses over cuba into the straights at 192 hours about 8 days
Quoting StormHype:
Check out all these waterspouts on lake Michigan yesterday. FIVE in one frame. Crazy rare experience.

YouTube - Lake Michigan waterspouts, Aug 18, 2012



Wow! Those are beautiful to watch over the water. :)
I'm not a wish caster but I have a bad feeling about 94L and this may effect Florida in some fashion based on some of the model runs.
Quoting Grothar:


I've been thinking of an answer, but all of them are bannable.


Good Morning Sensei,
What happened to your Avatar.
Are you going through an Avatar Replacement Cycle?
1785. Relix
I am starting to get this feeling that 94L is Puerto Rico bound. Definitely. Heh....
1786. LargoFl
hmmm at 204 hours, with either 850 OR 500 vt,not showing up
Quoting floridaboy14:
actually the trade winds are very strong in the carribean. GFS and euro have performed terribly with the intensity of storms but track wise they are very good so we will see. right now 94L is getting hit with dry air


Flboy! look. them trades are a lot lower than before. lower than what TD 7 had to deal with, and a lot lower tha what Ernesto had to deal with. I am very sorry but I have to disagree with you.
1788. RTLSNK
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Snake! See, you try and help out your fellow bloggers by giving them a nice new model instead of that purple and pink map they post every 5 minutes and you get an insult. :)


You know you love it.

Not to mention he said it before I could. :)

I must be getting slow in my old age.
Quoting LargoFl:
YES according to this run of the GFS, 94 crosses over cuba into the straights at 192 hours about 8 days


Still not buying the latest GFS or Euro. 94L has not develop yet.
1790. LargoFl
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Still not buying the latest GFS or Euro. 94L is has not develop yet.
same here its too far out yet
Quoting RTSplayer:


Explanation?



I don't expect an honest non-politically biased explanation on this blog on why this occurred.

My best politically neutral guess a stalled stationary frontal boundary and cold august air temps in the 60s. Water temps are low 70s across the lake, not too extreme by any means. I grew up there and recall a few summers in the 1980s where we had 80 degree lake MI surface water temps in august.
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Snake! See, you try and help out your fellow bloggers by giving them a nice new model instead of that purple and pink map they post every 5 minutes and you get an insult. :)


Where's the avatar?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting FLASPOTTER:
I'm not a wish caster but I have a bad feeling about 94L and this may effect Florida in some fashion based on some of the model runs.


How are you, JFV?
1795. LargoFl
Quoting Relix:
I am starting to get this feeling that 94L is Puerto Rico bound. Definitely. Heh....
so far they will be feeling something from it, still days away, time enough for it to change tracks..we'll see where it is monday evening, should have a very good guess then
1796. Dakster
1778. B - Hurricane.

Quoting ackee:
WHat will become of 94L ?

A TS
B hurricane
C TD
D Open wave


I say A or B. but I'm leaning more on B.

because if Ernesto can become a Hurricane in the conditions it was in. and there being better condition now than there was when Ernesto was in that area. then yeah you see where I am going with this.
Current GFS operational model is WELL south of the ensembles. Also most of the ensembles does not have it in the Caribbean. As they are clustering towards the Bahamas and the SE US.
A Earl track is still possible.Earl just barely missed the islands.All depends on how much 94L gets it's act together.
1800. SLU
19/1200 UTC 35.2N 30.6W T4.5/4.5 GORDON -- Atlantic
19/1145 UTC 14.8N 36.5W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic


94L seems to be really struggling in the face of dry air to its north. Had it remained at 12n as initially predicted by the models, it would have been stonger by now but at 15n 37w, the thermodynamics are much worse at that lattitude. I don't expect much development until at least 45w where the SSTs start to increase. The EURO must be given credit here at least so far because when the GFS was showing a cat 2 - cat 3 hurricane entering the Caribbean 2 days ago, the EURO barely showed any development and based on current satellite trends, I will be surprised if 94L makes it to the Caribbean at anything above a strong TS.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Lots of rain for today in S. Louisiana.



Rivers are all bone dry anyway, so that's not a concern, but there's still going to be street flooding from this for sure in places with bad drainage.


Absolutely correct, there's street flooding going on in my neighborhood now..and the rain is still pouring!
Afternoon everyone

Kinda wild that from LA (lake charles) all the way to Virginia the coasts are getting rain showers except a majority of the south coasts of Florida. It looks pretty coastal too.
Also 94l is attaining that strong inverted V feature.
Quoting hydrus:
Very possible. If it does make it into the Caribbean, it may have a more northerly component then the past two.
Agree, Over or closer to the leewards and the Greater Antilles, brushing Puerto Rico and perhaps Land fall in hispaniola.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Why Texas needs a tropical system, last 2 days several storms have gotten close to my house and I end up with less than a tenth of an inch, my first rain in 35 days and it just gets the streets wet. They said scattered and isolated, they were right, LOL.


You didn't get rain last night? In NW Houston (Cypress), we got 2.5 inches last night. Lots of lightning and wind - but nothing severe. Scared the daylights out of my daughter and dog, though.