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Tropical Storm Gordon forms; 5th earliest appearance a season's 7th storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:10 PM GMT on August 16, 2012

Tropical Storm Gordon is here, born out of a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa last week. Gordon's formation puts the hurricane season of 2012 in fifth place for the earliest date of formation of the season's seventh storm, going back to 1851. Only 2005, 1936, 2011, and 1995 had earlier formation dates of the season's seventh storm. Satellite loops show Gordon has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO)--a large and expanding area of high cirrus clouds over the center, due to a build-up of heavy thunderstorms. This is characteristic of intensifying tropical storms. Wind shear is light, but ocean temperatures are on the cool side, near 27°C. Water vapor satellite loops show that Gordon has moistened its environment considerably, but a large region of dry air lurks on three sides of the storm, ready to barge in and disrupt Gordon when wind shear rises on Saturday. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain light to moderate through Friday, then rise steeply to 25 - 40 knots over the weekend. At the same time, ocean temperatures will drop to 26°C. By Sunday, the combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon and make it no longer tropical, but Gordon will probably still be strong enough Sunday night to potentially bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Gordon.

Gordon's place in history
The 2012 version of Gordon is the fourth storm that has been given that name. Previous incarnations of Gordon appeared in 1994, 2000, and 2006. It's pretty unlikely that the 2012 version of Gordon will get its name retired, but the name Gordon should have been retired long ago. During the first appearance of Gordon in November 1994, the storm moved very slowly over Eastern Cuba, and dropped prodigious rains over Haiti. The resulting flash flooding killed over 1,100 people. Unquestionably, the 1994 version of Gordon should have had its name retired, due to the devastating impact it had on Haiti. However, after the 1994 hurricane season, Haiti did not send a representative to the annual World Meteorological Organization meeting that decides retirement of hurricane names, and no other country affected by Gordon requested that the name be retired.


Figure 2. Track of the 1994 version of Hurricane Gordon. The storm killed over 1100 people in Haiti.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the Gulf of Mexico, a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The most likely formation location of such a storm would be off the Texas coast, or off the Mexican coast south of Texas.

A large tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa today, and the GFS and ECMWF models predict this wave will develop into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. Preliminary indications are that this new storm will follow a path similar to Gordon's, recurving to the east of Bermuda, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

THX Dr. Jeff
thanks. Euro and GFS Nogaps and CMC show a cape verde system
Thanks Doc.
Thanks again for the post!
Wait...
I thought 2011 Gert formed earlier.
Quoting floridaboy14:
thanks. Euro and GFS Nogaps and CMC show a cape verde system
Thanks Dr.M. Looks to get interesting now for us east coasters.
thanks DOC....do you know if BIG Al & Cantore will visit this blog????
Thanks Doctor Masters.

The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel
Bookmark alert! Lunchtime live chat at 12 E/T with new #hurricane specialist Greg Postel.
Link
Good Morning Everyone..Just looked at the model runs..looks very interesting..
Quoting unknowncomic:
Thanks Dr.M. Looks to get interesting now for us east coasters.
east coast? where are you at?
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..Just looked at the model runs..looks very interesting..
Don't leave us in the dust.
Thanks for all the ongoing info Dr.
Morning everybody.
Well it seems that the TS Gordon is on track heading due west exactly at the moment on 35 Degrees north of latitude.
No doubt Aspectre will have a straight line plot that cause it to end up in my back yard at some point, sometime about Monday onwards.
The local weather mob will be thrashing about in some sort of frenzy about this one soon. I mean its not like we are supposed to suffer these kinds of things over on the Eastern side of the Atlantic.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Thanks again for the post!
Wait...
I thought 2011 Gert formed earlier.


Yes, Gert did form earlier, good memory! The track book I was using only goes to 2008, I forgot to check the more recent years. I've corrected the blog to say "5th earliest formation of season's 7th storm."

Jeff Masters
Not bad, this is an fair looking developing eyewall.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Don't leave us in the dust.

Euro

GOM Storm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeu rotropical850mbVortSLP192.gif



Cape Verde Storm


CMC--is much slower with the GOM Storm


shows something coming in the frame from the east atlantic
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Thanks again for the post!
Wait...
I thought 2011 Gert formed earlier.


Correct, 2011 Gert formed on August 13. That's why Gordon is only the fifth earliest, with 2011 highlighted in the Doc's blog as one the four years where the seventh storm formed earlier.
Thanks DRM.
Nice post.

Is there a spot on the coast of Africa below which the pressure waves won't develop and above which they tend to or is it too variable with the ITCZ movement?
Is it Guinea's coast?
Gordon in Rainbow

thanxs for the update doc
Thursday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 93F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Friday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. Low of 72F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers in the afternoon. High of 93F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. Fog overnight. Low of 73F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday
Overcast. Fog early. High of 91F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday Night
Overcast. Fog overnight. Low of 73F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Monday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 90F with a heat index of 97F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Tuesday Night
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Wednesday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 90F with a heat index of 95F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Wednesday Night
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Thursday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 90F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 70F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Friday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Rain? Wheres my rain??????
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting ncstorm:

Euro

GOM Storm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeu rotropical850mbVortSLP192.gif



Cape Verde Storm


CMC--is much slower with the GOM Storm


shows something coming in the frame from the east atlantic
Well look at it this way for the GOM storm.At least someone will get beneficial rains.I hope it's Helene though.Wouldn't want Isaac to be weak.Hopefully what ever is in the east Atlantic recurves.But we can't forget a tiny island called Bermuda is out there.
08L/TS/G/CX
MARK
34.24N/53.63W
635

WHXX01 KWBC 161237

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1237 UTC THU AUG 16 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON (AL082012) 20120816 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120816 1200 120817 0000 120817 1200 120818 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.9N 54.4W 34.9N 51.9W 35.7N 48.1W 35.7N 44.5W

BAMD 32.9N 54.4W 34.5N 51.9W 34.8N 48.1W 34.3N 43.8W

BAMM 32.9N 54.4W 34.6N 52.0W 35.0N 48.2W 34.6N 44.3W

LBAR 32.9N 54.4W 34.6N 51.7W 35.3N 48.7W 35.2N 44.9W

SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 57KTS 63KTS

DSHP 40KTS 49KTS 57KTS 63KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120818 1200 120819 1200 120820 1200 120821 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 35.5N 41.0W 35.1N 34.0W 34.5N 27.2W 33.8N 21.5W

BAMD 34.1N 39.1W 35.7N 26.4W 41.8N 14.0W 49.5N 2.4W

BAMM 34.3N 40.1W 34.8N 30.1W 38.3N 20.2W 43.6N 10.4W

LBAR 34.7N 40.4W 35.2N 29.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 65KTS 64KTS 46KTS 33KTS

DSHP 65KTS 64KTS 46KTS 33KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 32.9N LONCUR = 54.4W DIRCUR = 35DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

LATM12 = 30.6N LONM12 = 55.4W DIRM12 = 354DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 27.6N LONM24 = 54.5W

WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 30NM



$$

NNNN


232

WHXX01 KWBC 161245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC THU AUG 16 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE SEVEN (AL072012) 20120816 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120816 1200 120817 0000 120817 1200 120818 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.0N 93.0W 18.9N 94.9W 19.7N 96.5W 20.3N 97.9W

BAMD 18.0N 93.0W 18.9N 94.9W 19.7N 96.7W 20.3N 98.3W

BAMM 18.0N 93.0W 18.9N 94.9W 19.6N 96.5W 20.3N 97.9W

LBAR 18.0N 93.0W 19.1N 95.2W 20.4N 97.5W 21.8N 99.4W

SHIP 20KTS 19KTS 24KTS 30KTS

DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 34KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120818 1200 120819 1200 120820 1200 120821 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 21.1N 99.3W 22.6N 100.7W 23.7N 101.8W 24.4N 103.1W

BAMD 20.7N 99.6W 21.2N 101.1W 21.2N 101.9W 21.2N 102.8W

BAMM 20.9N 99.2W 22.1N 100.6W 23.0N 101.4W 23.6N 102.6W

LBAR 23.0N 101.0W 25.7N 102.2W 28.3N 100.3W 30.6N 95.8W

SHIP 38KTS 52KTS 61KTS 67KTS

DSHP 42KTS 56KTS 66KTS 72KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 93.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 90.9W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 88.6W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting JeffMasters:


Yes, Gert did form earlier, good memory! The track book I was using only goes to 2008, I forgot to check the more recent years. I've corrected the blog to say "5th earliest formation of season's 7th storm."

Jeff Masters


Dang, you're fast, Doc. :) Good catch, Bobbyweather.
Thank you for the new blog Dr. Masters. I remember Gordon 1994 very well

From Wiki:

Gordon later cross the Florida Keys and also made landfall in Fort Myers, Florida while still a weak tropical storm. Gordon began to strengthen further as it crossed Florida
the 06z GFS never develops the GOM storm but it looks like it wants to bring another Low in the BOC but keeps it further south but brings the cape verde system farther west in this run and recurves it

GOM first storm..


Second Low for the BOC


Cape Verde System


BTW, Gordon's prediction circles on the Wundermap were Awesome this last period. The ring and direction boundaries flank the storm nicely.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well look at it this way for the GOM storm.At least someone will get beneficial rains.I hope it's Helene though.Wouldn't want Isaac to be weak.Hopefully what ever is in the east Atlantic recurves.But we can't forget a tiny island called Bermuda is out there.


that area in the GOM tends to spin up hurricanes over night..People in Texas and Mexico should not let their guard down because the models dont intensify it that much..they seem to have a hard time with those systems in the BOC
Quoting ncstorm:

Euro

GOM Storm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeu rotropical850mbVortSLP192.gif



Cape Verde Storm


CMC--is much slower with the GOM Storm


shows something coming in the frame from the east atlantic


The CMC has clearly gone nuts. A 994 Mb low in the Gulf at nine days out with a huge high pressure system covering the East Coast?
Quoting ncstorm:


that area in the GOM tends to spin up hurricanes over night..People in Texas and Mexico should not let their guard down because the models dont intensify it that much..they seem to have a hard time with those systems in the BOC
Combine that with warm sst and low shear.
Any Chance somethign from the Gulf can make its way and live up to the Louisiana Coast? I know there is always a chance but what does it look like in the next coming weeks?
Morning again all. Missed the transition to the new blog because I stopped to watch the headlines...
Is it me, or is a large proportion of AM news reporting speculation nowadays??? [don't normally watch the a.m. cycle?]


Quoting AussieStorm:

If I bought you a ticket there, would you go?
I would. I think it'd be an interesting place to visit... BTW, last hurricane to hit there as a 'cane before Gordon was in 1972, I think. So two hurricane Gordons in 6 years would be a fascinating fact...

Quoting pmzqqzmp:


And that just has you salivating at the death & destruction it will cause.

Really sick people.
Huh???

Quoting seer2012:
It is amazing how you manage to interpret my motivations for making a simple post of what this tw may end up doing.It seems to me that you, the fingerpointer/accusser, are the one who is mentally sick.Having gone through several hurricanes myself the last thing I want to experience is the inconvenience/expenses that it causes.
Ok, this sounds like the seer of the blog... couldn't understand what happened to the other blogger... saying that a Twave just off Africa is likely to stay west rather than recurve is pretty much a no-brainer at this time of year... seems like over-reaction to me...

Quoting Skyepony:
[This event happened on 14th Aug.] At least 20 people were injured and more than 100 cars damaged in a sudden mid-summer hailstorm in a Russian Siberian town on Tuesday (August 14). The weather suddenly changed in the evening with wind bringing a torrential downpour of huge hailstones, some larger than chicken eggs. Witnesses said some hailstones reached seven centimeters in diameter. Town residents had literally to save themselves and run to nearby buildings to find cover. Big hailstones pierced holes in car windows, sometimes smashing the glass altogether. Meteorologists said they believed the sudden summer storm was caused by a sharp temperature drop from 32 degrees Celsius at lunchtime to just 16 degrees Celsius by the evening. The town is located in the Kemerovo region in Central Siberia some 3,800 km east of Moscow.

AtHomeInTX~ Sounds like a Haircon 3 should be declared in your area:)

washingtonian115~ I don't remember anyone getting banned for wanting a storm...After that drought last year most of TX would be banned if that was the case.
TS.Gordon had recurved before passing 553miles(890kilometres)East of Bermuda
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormGordon for 16August12pmGMT
MinimumPressure decreased from 1012millibars to 1011millibars
MaxSusWinds increased from 35knots(40mph)65km/h to 40knots(46mph)74km/h
Vector changed from 4.9*North@11.5mph(18.5km/h) to 30.2*NNEast@17.3mph(27.9km/h)

BDA-Bermuda :: YYT-SaintJohn's,Newfoundland :: CVU-Corvu :: SMA-SantaMaria

The southernmost dot on the kinked line is where 93L became TD.8
The northernmost dot on the kinked line is where TropicalDepressionEight became TS.Gordon
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Gordon's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TW.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the nearest coastline
16August12pmGMT: TS.Gordon was heading for passage 426miles(685kilometres)ESEast of Newfoundland in ~2days from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste bda, cvu, sma, yyt, 29.1n55.0w-30.6n55.4w-31.6n55.3w, 31.6n55.3w-32.9n54.4w, 31.6n55.3w-43.353n45.723w, 46.758n52.981w-43.353n45.723w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
From the blog entry:-
" It's pretty unlikely that the 2012 version of Gordon will get its name retired, but the name Gordon should have been retired long ago."
Speaking of retired, if Gordon does get retired for possibly ruining my garden, then its name place could be replaced with "TS Grother," to celebrate his refusal to retire!
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
938 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

VALID 12Z MON AUG 20 2012 - 12Z THU AUG 23 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/16 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY
FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECMWF IS STRONGLY
CORRELATED WITH THE 00Z/16 ECENS MEAN...GEFS MEAN...AND
DETERMINISTIC GEM GLOBAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 00Z/16 GFS IS OUT
OF SYNC WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...SHOWING ITS
BIAS OF WARMING TOO QUICKLY AND TOO SHARPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTERN TROUGH. SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE AN AREA OF INTEREST
FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHETHER AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS ABLE TO FORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE
IMMATERIAL TO THE RAINFALL THREAT...WITH THE MOIST PLUME FROM THE
SOUTH INTERSECTING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE
REGION. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER UPSHOT OF USING THE ECMWF
VERSUS THE GFS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES IS THE TENACITY OF
COOLER AIR TO THE EAST...WITH AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE BAROCLINICITY
VIA OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION.

536

NOUS42 KNHC 161331

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0930 AM EDT THU 16 AUGUST 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-090



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN

FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--

A. 17/2000Z

B. AFXXX 0207A INVEST

C. 17/1715Z

D. 20.8N 96.5W

E. 17/1930Z TO 17/2230Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.



$$

[JWP]
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well look at it this way for the GOM storm.At least someone will get beneficial rains.I hope it's Helene though.Wouldn't want Isaac to be weak.Hopefully what ever is in the east Atlantic recurves.But we can't forget a tiny island called Bermuda is out there.
LOL... I was just thinking about the naming when I read the doc's comments, and wondering if u'll get your "Big Isaac" or not... lol

Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
Any Chance somethign from the Gulf can make its way and live up to the Louisiana Coast? I know there is always a chance but what does it look like in the next coming weeks?
That high looks likely to set over you guys... the W TX predictions seem more feasible atm...

Thank you Dr. Masters
Quoting washingtonian115:
Combine that with warm sst and low shear.




The water in the gulf is like ROCKET FUEL!!!
If something does spin up in the gulf what is the most likely landfall point? Mexico?
Quoting PlazaRed:
From the blog entry:-
" It's pretty unlikely that the 2012 version of Gordon will get its name retired, but the name Gordon should have been retired long ago."
Speaking of retired, if Gordon does get retired for possibly ruining my garden, then its name place could be replaced with "TS Grother," to celebrate his refusal to retire!
LOL... so could Gordon in a post-tropical phase help w/ the drought u guys r having? [can't remember whether u r on the ATL or the Med. side of Gibralter...]
Quoting sar2401:


The CMC has clearly gone nuts. A 994 Mb low in the Gulf at nine days out with a huge high pressure system covering the East Coast?


maybe..maybe not..we will see..
Quoting roxycc:
If something does spin up in the gulf what is the most likely landfall point? Mexico?
Or SW TX.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not bad, this is an fair looking developing eyewall.


It will likely be a hurricane by today if it maintains that structure. Gordon has been steadily organizing a pretty decent clip the last 24 hours, especially structurally.
Quoting ncstorm:


that area in the GOM tends to spin up hurricanes over night..People in Texas and Mexico should not let their guard down because the models dont intensify it that much..they seem to have a hard time with those systems in the BOC


Agreed. TS Hermine came out of the blue in September 2010 and brought us 15+ inches of rain here in Central Texas as it stalled out over the area. If I recall just a few days earlier it was a remnant low that crossed over into the GOM from the Pacific.
Just wanted to say some really cool avatar pics by bloggers this a.m.... lol
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
Any Chance somethign from the Gulf can make its way and live up to the Louisiana Coast? I know there is always a chance but what does it look like in the next coming weeks?


Well I don't know what it is that they are showing here but the EURO seems to bring whatever they spin up to LA in their last run. Doesn't mean it will happen. But it could. I think a lot will have to do with where that front parks and of course on development.

ATCF says Gordon will go up to 45mph (40kt) at the next advisory. I think that is kind of conservative, considering it has a developing eyewall.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well I don't know what it is that they are showing here but the EURO seems to bring whatever they spin up to LA in their last run. Doesn't mean it will happen. But it could. I think a lot will have to do with where that front parks and of course on development.

So u are saying potentially rain all along the Gulf coast from MX to LA? or a more direct path?
Here some pics from yesterdays massive storms that rolled thru E C FL.

Ponce Inlet


Lightning bolt over a Clermont


Port Orange


Flagler Beach


Very near my house
Night Lightning
I remember 1994 Gordon as a very odd and lop-sided storm. In South Florida, the winds were strongest when Gordon was still well south of us, as it approached the S.W. Florida coast, the wind diminished to almost zero, but the barometer continued to drop. Although considered full tropical when it hit, it had the earmarks of a hybrid storm...Gordon during its hybrid tropical/sub-tropical stage with a frontal band dropping rain over Haiti I like posting the Wiki link on this because it shows what a hybrid type storm like Gordon can do..The G storm this year formed November 8th, and dissipated on November 21. Its been a long time since we have waited that long for the "G" storm.The meteorological history of Hurricane Gordon consisted of a thirteen-day period in which the storm's path was erratic, persistent, and highly unusual. The hurricane formed near Panama in the southwestern Caribbean Sea on November 9, 1994. As a tropical depression it brushed Nicaragua and spent several days in the waters off the country's coast. Strengthening slightly into a tropical storm, Gordon wound its way north into the Greater Antilles. Despite warm waters, persistent wind shear prevented significant strengthening. Executing a slow turn to the north and then the northwest, Gordon made two more landfalls, on eastern Jamaica and eastern Cuba, while delivering tremendous rains to western Hispaniola.

As Tropical Storm Gordon made its fourth landfall crossing the Florida Keys, it interacted with a cyclone in the upper-troposphere and a series of cyclonic lows which lent the storm some sub-tropical characteristics. After a few days as an unusual hybrid of a tropical and a subtropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, the storm re-claimed its fully tropical form and made yet another landfall, this time across the Florida peninsula, and continued into the Atlantic Ocean. In the Atlantic, Gordon rapidly strengthened to a Category 1 Hurricane. Gordon's characteristic wandering briefly brought it near North Carolina, but ultimately the storm headed south, weakening into a minor tropical storm before making its sixth and final landfall on Florida's east coast.

Hurricane Gordon was the seventh named storm and third hurricane of the 1994 Atlantic hurricane season. Although it never made landfall as a hurricane, in its meandering course the storm included six separate landfalls: four as a tropical storm and two as a tropical depression. Three of its landfalls were in the U.S. state of Florida.
Quoting hydrus:
I remember 1994 Gordon as a very odd and lop-sided storm. In South Florida, the winds were strongest when Gordon was still well south of us, as it approached the S.W. Florida coast, the wind diminished to almost zero, but the barometer continued to drop. Although considered full tropical when it hit, it had the earmarks of a hybrid storm...Gordon during its hybrid tropical/sub-tropical stage with a frontal band dropping rain over Haiti I like posting the Wiki link on this because it shows what a hybrid type storm like Gordon can do..The G storm this year formed November 8th, and dissipated on November 21. Its been a long time since we have waited that long for the "G" storm.
Gordon loved Florida so much he visited it two times.Lol.
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... so could Gordon in a post-tropical phase help w/ the drought u guys r having? [can't remember whether u r on the ATL or the Med. side of Gibraltar...]

Thanks for that. We are about 70 miles North of Gibraltar so its the same thing to us if we look West or South East, as the sea is not a long way from us, though out of sight due to big mountains.
I uploaded 3 photos to WU photos to show the state of our fields of dust.
Seville which is just North of here and we can see its lights at night, had 45.9/C last Friday, a lot of out trees are dying with their leaves still on them all brown, even almonds and lots of bush fires all over the place.
We might get some rain normally about the first week in October. Only had about 8 days rain in the last year.
Quoting hydrus:
I remember 1994 Gordon as a very odd and lop-sided storm. In South Florida, the winds were strongest when Gordon was still well south of us, as it approached the S.W. Florida coast, the wind diminished to almost zero, but the barometer continued to drop. Although considered full tropical when it hit, it had the earmarks of a hybrid storm...Gordon during its hybrid tropical/sub-tropical stage with a frontal band dropping rain over Haiti I like posting the Wiki link on this because it shows what a hybrid type storm like Gordon can do..The G storm this year formed November 8th, and dissipated on November 21. Its been a long time since we have waited that long for the "G" storm.The meteorological history of Hurricane Gordon consisted of a thirteen-day period in which the storm's path was erratic, persistent, and highly unusual. The hurricane formed near Panama in the southwestern Caribbean Sea on November 9, 1994. As a tropical depression it brushed Nicaragua and spent several days in the waters off the country's coast. Strengthening slightly into a tropical storm, Gordon wound its way north into the Greater Antilles. Despite warm waters, persistent wind shear prevented significant strengthening. Executing a slow turn to the north and then the northwest, Gordon made two more landfalls, on eastern Jamaica and eastern Cuba, while delivering tremendous rains to western Hispaniola.

As Tropical Storm Gordon made its fourth landfall crossing the Florida Keys, it interacted with a cyclone in the upper-troposphere and a series of cyclonic lows which lent the storm some sub-tropical characteristics. After a few days as an unusual hybrid of a tropical and a subtropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, the storm re-claimed its fully tropical form and made yet another landfall, this time across the Florida peninsula, and continued into the Atlantic Ocean. In the Atlantic, Gordon rapidly strengthened to a Category 1 Hurricane. Gordon's characteristic wandering briefly brought it near North Carolina, but ultimately the storm headed south, weakening into a minor tropical storm before making its sixth and final landfall on Florida's east coast.

Hurricane Gordon was the seventh named storm and third hurricane of the 1994 Atlantic hurricane season. Although it never made landfall as a hurricane, in its meandering course the storm included six separate landfalls: four as a tropical storm and two as a tropical depression. Three of its landfalls were in the U.S. state of Florida.


I remember that it rained for 22 straight hours at my house in Lake Mary, FL. I picked up 8.50" of rain from Gordon in 1994.
Isn't this [1994] the Gordon that one of the NHC forecasters said was one of the most frustrating storms ever to forecast? or was that a later storm with a similar kind of track?
Quoting BahaHurican:
So u are saying potentially rain all along the Gulf coast from MX to LA? or a more direct path?


Not sure. The mets around here have been saying if the front stalls off the coast then the majority of the rains could too. As far as tropical tracks. That was just my interpretation of that EURO run. From what I can tell the GFS never moved the rain or anything NE. Keeping it in mostly STX/MX. And that may be what happens. Kinda hard to discount the GFS. lol
Quoting PlazaRed:

Thanks for that. We are about 70 miles North of Gibraltar so its the same thing to us if we look West or South East, as the sea is not a long way from us, though out of sight due to big mountains.
I uploaded 3 photos to WU photos to show the state of our fields of dust.
Seville which is just North of here and we can see its lights at night, had 45.9/C last Friday, a lot of out trees are dying with their leaves still on them all brown, even almonds and lots of bush fires all over the place.
We might get some rain normally about the first week in October. Only had about 8 days rain in the last year.
[goes to look @ Plaza's wunderphotos]
XTD7 starting to get interesting for the first time in a while
in rainbow


and the full picture in rainbow

Thunderstorms already firing south of Tampa

Quoting VR46L:
XTD7 starting to get interesting for the first time in a while
in rainbow


and the full picture in rainbow



Wow! You can definitely see the spin pop out into the water.
Anybody else notice the EPac has gone relatively quiet the last 3-5 days?
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here some pics from yesterdays massive storms that rolled thru E C FL.

Ponce Inlet


Lightning bolt over a Clermont


Port Orange


Flagler Beach


Very near my house


Great photos man, powerful thunderstorms, I bet they put down some crazy rainfall amounts and some insane lightning. Anytime you get thunderstorms like that in Florida you expect insane rainfall and large amounts of lightning.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Wow! You can definitely see the spin pop out into the water.
Hmmm... GoM may get Helene after all...

I'll be in and out for the next while... some of which will be me doing stuff and some of which will likely be my internet freaking out again today... [sigh]
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Wow! You can definitely see the spin pop out into the water.


Its something to keep an eye on ...
Yanno.. all this dry weather in the Bahamas is really sketchy.. it's usually like this in the winter... not the summer.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... GoM may get Helene after all...



Yep could happen.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Wow! You can definitely see the spin pop out into the water.


I don't see it.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Thunderstorms already firing south of Tampa



Aaaaand none once again here in Pinellas. Historically we still get at least some small cells in the westerly flow. We can't buy a drop, very weird, nothing has wanted pop on the sea breeze until it moves inland regardless of how moist and unstable which is very contrary to what I've seen in the past, and nothing has formed over water near the beach either which is also strange given massive CAPE and warm water temps with a very moist air mass. This same trend has persisted for over a week. I know it will end one of these days but it's very weird regardless.


The NWS is also saying the westerly flow will be inp lace through next week, I've never seen this much of a prevailing flow persist for so long, especially not a westerly flow in August. At least you guys typically get better morning coverage on the east coast with an East wind...



Quoting BahaHurican:
[goes to look @ Plaza's wunderphotos]

I'll do some more later, I just got to extract them from the camera.
Once I have uploaded them, can somebody advise me how I can include by pasting the odd one of them in a post?
Sometimes we get very interesting pictures of weather here as well as you guys.
Excuse my bad mood today... but do we really have to see what's going on in Florida everyday? I'm okay with people posting weather from their state, but it get old after posting it everyday. I understand Florida got 20 million of people, but...
Quoting Thrawst:
Yanno.. all this dry weather in the Bahamas is really sketchy.. it's usually like this in the winter... not the summer.

It's usually not that wet at first in August, anyway. Big rain usually don't start till next week, or even week after. Then there's enough for the whole month... lol

I doubt we get through next week dry. Maybe not even through today. Some p.m. popup showers are supposedly likely....

Go on the beach while u can... lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
Anybody else notice the EPac has gone relatively quiet the last 3-5 days?


Morning, about to be real quiet, not much left here......
Hurricane Gordon [2000] was one of two U.S. landfalling tropical storms of the 2000 Atlantic hurricane season. The seventh named storm and fourth hurricane of the season, Gordon developed in the extreme western Caribbean Sea from a tropical wave on September 14.

So two Gordons hit FL, and two seem likely to impact the Azores...
Quoting Jedkins01:


Great photos man, powerful thunderstorms, I bet they put down some crazy rainfall amounts and some insane lightning. Anytime you get thunderstorms like that in Florida you expect insane rainfall and large amounts of lightning.


Yeah there was a flood warning for Seminole county as reports of 5" to 6" of rain fell across C and Eastern Seminole County. Widespread low lying flooding still present after yesterdays storms across eastern Seminole County.

Quoting jascott1967:


I don't see it.


Kind of looks like off the W YUC kinda NW of that big thunderstorm mass over the Yucatan. Sorry not very scientific. :)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like War in Middle East is coming


In the Maariv interview, Vilnai said "the home front is ready as never before." Nonetheless, he said the country must be braced for heavy casualties in the case of conflict with Iran.

"Vilnai said the government has prepared for the possibility of hundreds of rockets and missiles falling on Israeli population centers each day, with the expectation of 500 deaths.

"It could be that there will be fewer fatalities, but it could be there will be more. That is the scenario that we are preparing for according to the best experts," he said. "The assessments are for a war that will last 30 days on a number of fronts."
Israel have been saying that everyday the past 20 years... won't believe it until they actually strike Iran. I also don't believe it's a month long war either... more like more than a year.
Quoting PlazaRed:

I'll do some more later, I just got to extract them from the camera.
Once I have uploaded them, can somebody advise me how I can include by pasting the odd one of them in a post?
Sometimes we get very interesting pictures of weather here as well as you guys.
Same way u do it in your own blog setting... just use the URL from the pic on the wunderground page.

Morning all, I hope that system in E mex goes right over TX. You guys need the rain bad. I just hope it doesn't start fires with lightning or cause flash floods. Good luck.

I guess the doc and TWC thinks this cold front could at least cause some thunder storm conditions and at worse stir up a TS/TD. Is that pretty much what he is saying guys??????
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here some pics from yesterdays massive storms that rolled thru E C FL.

Ponce Inlet


Lightning bolt over a Clermont


Port Orange


Flagler Beach


Very near my house
Even though posting about storms in Floria gets old, the pictures doesn't. Great images!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like War in Middle East is coming


In the Maariv interview, Vilnai said "the home front is ready as never before." Nonetheless, he said the country must be braced for heavy casualties in the case of conflict with Iran.

"Vilnai said the government has prepared for the possibility of hundreds of rockets and missiles falling on Israeli population centers each day, with the expectation of 500 deaths.

"It could be that there will be fewer fatalities, but it could be there will be more. That is the scenario that we are preparing for according to the best experts," he said. "The assessments are for a war that will last 30 days on a number of fronts."
Why does this sound like war-mongering to me?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like War in Middle East is coming


In the Maariv interview, Vilnai said "the home front is ready as never before." Nonetheless, he said the country must be braced for heavy casualties in the case of conflict with Iran.

"Vilnai said the government has prepared for the possibility of hundreds of rockets and missiles falling on Israeli population centers each day, with the expectation of 500 deaths.

"It could be that there will be fewer fatalities, but it could be there will be more. That is the scenario that we are preparing for according to the best experts," he said. "The assessments are for a war that will last 30 days on a number of fronts."



Please attach a link to article.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
WHETHER AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO FORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE IMMATERIAL TO THE RAINFALL THREAT...WITH THE MOIST PLUME FROM THE SOUTH INTERSECTING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE

This part bears repeating.
Visible loop of X TD 07
"EP, 08, 2012081612, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1159W, 30, 1004, TD

up to 35 mph.... DIE ALREADY!!!
The Gulf of Mexico should have a bit of action soon..84 hour..
Interesting that the Euro brings this up to LA.If that's the case it has more time over water..
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Even though posting about storms in Floria gets old, the pictures doesn't. Great images!


Typical, every day, every year normal thunderstorms! Its not like its an amazing thing that afternoon storms form ya know but hey some people get really excited over some rain and thunder!
Quoting bappit:

This part bears repeating.


Yep. :)
Hurricane Ernesto was born on August 1, 2012 and it's still alive on August 16, 2012 as Tropical Depression Hector... hmm.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Interesting that the Euro brings this up to LA.If that's the case it has more time over water..


That would make sense as this is a powerful trough moving in a few days. There is going to be a strong pull to the NE.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah there was a flood warning for Seminole county as reports of 5" to 6" of rain fell across C and Eastern Seminole County. Widespread low lying flooding still present after yesterdays storms across eastern Seminole County.



Yeah it looks like a storm that would dump 3 to 6 inches. Honestly we always flip about strong winds and what not but flooding from torrential rain is much more destructive and effects more people and kills more people. Lighting also is more destructive and often kills more, although lightning deaths are down thanks to people listening to advice on how to stay safe. But lightning sounds dangerous and looks dangerous, therefore people heed its power more and listen to the education on how to avoid death or injury.

However despite the same amount of effort if not more being put into dangers of flooding, people still don't take it seriously enough. People still think they can drive through flash floods with their cars because they continue to underestimate the power of water and it's ability to destroy and kill. Water might move slow or not look as powerful as severe winds but it packs a lot of energy from a physics standpoint regardless of human perception, and the damage it does speaks of itself.


At least here in Florida the ground handles heavy rain amounts a lot better, especially high rainfall rate events. However, it doesn't mean we still can't and don't get flash flooding too, just not as easily as many other regions in the country.
From....

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 54.8W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

To...

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...GORDON STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 53.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

6MB drop in 6hrs.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That would make sense as this is a powerful trough moving in a few days. There is going to be a strong pull to the NE.
I think the models will start to go more north over these next few runs.That would be the better solution.
103. TXCWC
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Post #95: What is that in the last frame or two that came off the Pennisula into the BOC? Looks like has some spin to it already - or is this simply an illusion?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Now I see it...
Major winter coming up for East Coast? According to forecasters, it's a yes.
Link
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Looking at this pic, it appears there are two centers of rotation. But it could just be my old eyes are seeing something not there. I see the one over water, but to the sw there is a circulation to the clouds over land. Does anyone else see that? BTW Good Morning :)
86% Humidity at da Haus.


Phew

Uptown, New Orleans, LA 83.8 F Heat Index 96 F 79 F Humidity 86% North at - 0.00 in / hr 20 ft
Conversation I had yesterday with a met from Houston


Me:
Do you see a similar setup compared to TS Frances in 1998 coming about? A tropical entity in the BOC with a cool front stalling over Gulf coast pooling moisture and the high pressure ridge causing tight pressure gradient with a low in the Gulf.

Partial Report on Frances 1998

“After drifting southwest for a day, the cyclone organized into a tropical storm, still poorly
defined, on the afternoon of the 10th. By this time, Canadian High pressure had settled into
the Ohio Valley, draping a frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. This acted to focus rains,
and increase wind speeds along the western Gulf Coast. Gale force winds lashed the coast
from the 10th through the 12th in the tight pressure gradient between Frances and the high
pressure center, leading to a large area of coastal flooding and erosion.”


Him:
Frances could be a good analog…only more south and west. Bret 99 is another possible analog…although I would not expect the current system to be as strong given the likely decent W/SW shear over the western Gulf. The GFS has stuck to its guns with development and the other models have with the no development. 12Z GFS is further south and into MX well south of the Rio Grande.

Me:
Maybe a good thing then, as Frances’s heaviest rains were well east into LA, I assume because of the frontal boundary being stalled out helped with all that. If something goes to MX then maybe SE TX would be in the bulls eye.

Him:
It is possible as long as not too much dry air from the north gets involved. But it is middle August and not mid September.
NHC dropped TS Gordon's pressure 6 mb going from 1011 to 1005 in just 6 hours. Impressive... and the winds are up to 50 mph.
Quoting TXCWC:


What is that in the last frame or two that came off the Pennisula into the BOC? Looks like has some spin to it already - or is this simply an illusion?


That's what I'm seeing too.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah there was a flood warning for Seminole county as reports of 5" to 6" of rain fell across C and Eastern Seminole County. Widespread low lying flooding still present after yesterdays storms across eastern Seminole County.



Yeah it looks like a storm that would dump 3 to 6 inches. Honestly we always flip about strong winds and what not but flooding from torrential rain is much more destructive and effects more people and kills more people. Lighting also is more destructive and often kills more, although lightning deaths are down thanks to people listening to advice on how to stay safe. But lightning sounds dangerous and looks dangerous, therefore people heed its power more and listen to the education on how to avoid death or injury.

However despite the same amount of effort if not more being put into dangers of flooding, people still don't take it seriously enough. People still think they can drive through flash floods with their cars because they continue to underestimate the power of water and it's ability to destroy and kill. Water might move slow or not look as powerful as severe winds but it packs a lot of energy from a physics standpoint regardless of human perception, and the damage it does speaks of itself.


At least here in Florida the ground handles heavy rain amounts a lot better, especially high rainfall rate events. However, it doesn't mean we still can't and don't get flash flooding too, just not as easily as many other regions in the country.
Quoting TXCWC:


Post #95: What is that in the last frame or two that came off the Pennisula into the BOC? Looks like has some spin to it already - or is this simply an illusion?


Mid level spin
Quoting AussieStorm:
TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...GORDON STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 53.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

6MB drop in 6hrs.


Microwave showed about an 80% eye wall structure had developed in just about 24 hours. Tonight should be interesting to see how he will intensify. He has a trough to the west that is providing excellent outflow to his north and east, just like Chris from earlier this season.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hurricane Ernesto was born on August 1, 2012 and it's still alive on August 16, 2012 as Tropical Depression Hector... hmm.


I had had a quick look earlier to see just when he did form LOL

I think it would be grand if these remnants drifted around Gulf of Calif and regenerated yet again :P I know, not likely at all...but I think it'd be great LOL
Quoting washingtonian115:
Gordon going through RI now?.

6MB in 6Hrs.... I am not sure if I'd call it R.I
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.
Quoting kwgirl:
Looking at this pic, it appears there are two centers of rotation. But it could just be my old eyes are seeing something not there. I see the one over water, but to the sw there is a circulation to the clouds over land. Does anyone else see that? BTW Good Morning :)


Good morning! :) Now I see the second circulation to the SW too. Good catch. :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Gordon going through RI now?.
Nah.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.

I was just about to post that.
The GFS operational may keep the potential GOM storm south but the ensembles dont..



Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.


Good.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.
??

I guess Gustav and Ike doesn't count??
Quoting AussieStorm:
From....

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 54.8W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

To...

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...GORDON STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 53.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

6MB drop in 6hrs.



we can say Gordon is dropping 1mbar per hour...
this is the GFS ensembles for the 1st cape verde system..





Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.
Now if you move that 5 to the last place with the two 00's in the middle it'll be 2005 :P!!!!.
Quoting jascott1967:


Good.


:)
Quoting Msdrown:
??

I guess Gustav and Ike doesn't count??

They both wren't majors
Regarding folks posting Florida weather, a few thoughts:

1- I bet most of us Floridians really care about the weather in other parts of the Country; I know we were all sending prayers and wishes out to the folks in Texas last year when the Death Ridge came to stay;

2- Our weather is right at the edge of what's happening in the true Tropics, so it's relevant to the topic of this blog;

3- WU is a community of weather fans 'n followers from all over the U.S! People post on here about storms firing in the Dakotas, Massachusetts, etc., and do so on a daily basis WHEN they're having active weather!

4- We're all on here to learn. When I hear that Jedkins can't get rain this year even when conditions and climatology indicate it should be happening, I want to know ... because it's probably going to happen to me here at some point if it hasn't already. Storms in Texas can get out in the Gulf and fester, making tropical weather for others (dunno about you guys but I have relatives in other states!).

We're a weather blog, and we're a community. Ideally, weather is exciting without killing all of us, and we're here in part because weather is too exciting to keep to ourselves!

Hope that helps....
Ike was 110mph, 1mph shy of major, throw in the 20 ft storm surge, call it what you want. If you lived on the coast and got wiped out or flooded like Galveston did from rising water it was a major, if you were where I'm at inland with no shingles missing and fence still standing,and no flooding, then no major
Quoting washingtonian115:
Gordon going through RI now?.

Looks like it. Here is the NHC definition of rapid intensification.

"An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period."
Quoting Msdrown:
??

I guess Gustav and Ike doesn't count??

Gustav landed as a 1, Ike as a 2. They referenced the word "major"
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

They both wren't majors

Legalistic nonsense.
Quoting Jeff9645:


Typical, every day, every year normal thunderstorms! Its not like its an amazing thing that afternoon storms form ya know but hey some people get really excited over some rain and thunder!
Doesn't stop the pics from being great, though.

Quoting kwgirl:
Looking at this pic, it appears there are two centers of rotation. But it could just be my old eyes are seeing something not there. I see the one over water, but to the sw there is a circulation to the clouds over land. Does anyone else see that? BTW Good Morning :)
Could just be unstacked.


Quoting ILwthrfan:


Microwave showed about an 80% eye wall structure had developed in just about 24 hours. Tonight should be interesting to see how he will intensify. He has a trough to the west that is providing excellent outflow to his north and east, just like Chris from earlier this season.
The small radius of winds isn't hurting, either.

Gordon about to be picked up by that stream and accelerate to the Azores....


Quoting Msdrown:
??

I guess Gustav and Ike doesn't count??
Both came in below Cat 3 according to NHC. Both had been majors earlier, though.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Excuse my bad mood today... but do we really have to see what's going on in Florida everyday? I'm okay with people posting weather from their state, but it get old after posting it everyday. I understand Florida got 20 million of people, but...



AGREED!!!
Almost at the same exact location... compared to now

2006

If one is using Cat size to scale Impact...,

Well it was designed for Wind Loading on Structures and dosent handle Storm Surge and it's impact.

That's why we have new Products from the NHC Warning wise.




Rolling Warnings can be done in a personal Blog as that way it rolls to top as well,of the directory.


Quoting RitaEvac:
Ike was 110mph, 1mph shy of major, throw in the 20 ft storm surge, call it what you want. If you lived on the coast and got wiped out or flooded like Galveston did from rising water it was a major, if you were where I'm at inland with no shingles missing and fence still standing, then no major
I wasn't trying to discredit Ike. Ike was a bad, bad storm. Just wasn't OFFICIALLY a major at landfall because the winds weren't there, but it did caused a damage a Category 4 would causes. Just like Katrina landfalling as Category 3, but causing a damage a Category 5 would creates. I agree NHC should've declared Ike a major hurricane, but since it isn't... then it had been 2,500 days since last major hurricane landfalling.
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

They both wren't majors



I stand corrected. My memory was that they both were CAT3 at some time but you are right when they came in they both were CAT2's. I guess my memory was the storm surge was very high and in Ikes case severe damage to the coast of TX. I had 11ft storm surge in my neighborhood with Gustav and 8ft with Ike for 3days off and on even though it was two states away.

My bust.
I suspect there will be some flooding issues for the west coast of FL this weekend as this strong front rolls in and stalls as the NAM and Euro are hammering the west coast of FL with high rain fall totals.

Perfect set up for training of thunderstorms coming in off the Gulf starting this weekend.


This is scary Link
Quoting Patrap:
Rolling Warnings can be done in a personal Blog as that way it rolls to top as well,of the directory.


Pat you watching the Gulf?
57 PlazaRed: We are about 70 miles North of Gibraltar so its the same thing to us if we look West or South East, as the sea is not a long way from us, though out of sight due to big mountains.
I uploaded 3 photos to WU photos to show the state of our fields of dust.
Seville is just North of here, and we can see its lights at night.
Had 45.9*C
[~115*F] last Friday. A lot of our trees are dying with their leaves still on them -- all brown, even almonds -- and lots of bush fires all over the place.

And yet ya'd complain ifn a minor (ex)hurricane was sent your way?
(Gordon's roar would be nearly muted by the cool waters between the Azores and Iberia)
Looks like a little spin-off from the ex-TD7 activity stalled(?) over SE Mex. coastal areas. Is it getting ready to gear up & just sending off spits & spats here & there? -- Central GOM starting to look VERY "flammable": increasing water vapor, high sea temps.

Elsewise,...seems interesting that in the peak of hurricane season, the greatest activity seems to be a TS headed towards the Azores. lol.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ike was 110mph, 1mph shy of major, throw in the 20 ft storm surge, call it what you want. If you lived on the coast and got wiped out or flooded like Galveston did from rising water it was a major, if you were where I'm at inland with no shingles missing and fence still standing,and no flooding, then no major



That was my point as well, I was two states over and got flooding for 3days.
Quoting Msdrown:



I stand corrected. My memory was that they both were CAT3 at some time but you are right when they came in they both were CAT2's. I guess my memory was the storm surge was very high and in Ikes case severe damage to the coast of TX. I had 11ft storm surge in my neighborhood with Gustav and 8ft with Ike for 3days off and on even though it was two states away.

My bust.


It's alright..they both were stronger before they made landfall. For those that experienced them, they felt major
152. flsky
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here some pics from yesterdays massive storms that rolled thru E C FL.

Ponce Inlet


Lightning bolt over a Clermont


Port Orange


Flagler Beach


Very near my house


That was a great storm! Looks like you were out chasing it for quite a while. They're predicting a re-occurance for today
How many days has it been since a storm whose name has an odd number of letters made landfall on a Tuesday?
Quoting flsky:


That was a great storm! Looks like you were out chasing it for quite a while. They're predicting a re-occurance for today


Some of those were from news viewers
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:
Looks like a little spin-off from the ex-TD7 activity stalled(?) over SE Mex. coastal areas. Is it getting ready to gear up & just sending off spits & spats here & there? -- Central GOM starting to look VERY "flammable": increasing water vapor, high sea temps.

Elsewise,...seems interesting that in the peak of hurricane season, the greatest activity seems to be a TS headed towards the Azores. lol.
Peak of the season isn't until next month... I get the feeling Gordon is just the opening number...
Outflow is good in all directions, but the northeast channel is exceptionally well established.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
I suspect there will be some flooding issues for the west coast of FL this weekend as this strong front rolls in and stalls as the NAM and Euro are hammering the west coast of FL with high rain fall totals.



Perfect set up for training of thunderstorms coming in off the Gulf starting this weekend.



Yeah I've been keeping an eye on this and I'm hoping it will happen, because the west coast of Florida has been extremely dry for August standards. It's the driest to date I've seen it here for August so we could use a big rain event. Maybe we will get all our month's rainfall in the last week or so, lol.
Quoting aspectre:
57 PlazaRed: We are about 70 miles North of Gibraltar so its the same thing to us if we look West or South East, as the sea is not a long way from us, though out of sight due to big mountains.
I uploaded 3 photos to WU photos to show the state of our fields of dust.
Seville which is just North of here and we can see its lights at night, had 45.9/C last Friday. A lot of our trees are dying with their leaves still on them -- all brown, even almonds -- and lots of bush fires all over the place.


And yet ya'd complain ifn a minor (ex)hurricane was sent your way? (Gordon's roar would be nearly muted by the cool waters between the Azores and Iberia)
I thought he was welcoming it... am I wrong???
Quoting Patrap:
If one is using Cat size to scale Impact...,

Well it was designed for Wind Loading on Structures and dosent handle Storm Surge and it's impact.

That's why we have new Products from the NHC Warning wise.







That was my point.
I love small storms like Gordon.Seems that wave the exited Africa(last week) was destined to become Gordon after all XD.It was determined.
looks like pinhole eye there...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Outflow is good in all directions, but the northeast channel is exceptionally well established.


expect a Special Advisory within 12~24 hrs if not less. (or maybe they'll upgrade it in the normal advisory package)

Sarcasm Flag: Uhh...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Outflow is good in all directions, but the northeast channel is exceptionally well established.


Got its act together.
It dosent have to be a so called "Major" to take Lives and do Billions in Damage in Multiple States.

TS Allison is a Good example.

The only Atlantic Tropical Storm to have its name retired, still.


All it has to do is be wet,and linger.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast… a record length of time.

History in the making, guys.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I wasn't trying to discredit Ike. Ike was a bad, bad storm. Just wasn't OFFICIALLY a major at landfall because the winds weren't there, but it did caused a damage a Category 4 would causes. Just like Katrina landfalling as Category 3, but causing a damage a Category 5 would creates. I agree NHC should've declared Ike a major hurricane, but since it isn't... then it had been 2,500 days since last major hurricane landfalling.


Ike was both. I think the major damage was from tidal surges as those came from it's pre-landfall winds, right? Didn't it then lose wind speed before landfall? So, it came across Houston less powerful than it really was at first, but the storm surge was already there, if I remember correctly.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

expect a Special Advisory within 12~24 hrs if not less. (or maybe they'll upgrade it in the normal advisory package)
Shouldn't need a special... I'd guess by 5 p.m. our time Gordon would be good to go.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Shouldn't need a special... I'd guess by 5 p.m. our time Gordon would be good to go.


Yes, I mentioned it in the parentheses :)

The NHC can't send HH there, can they?
2006


2012
I believe Gordon has rapidly intensified to a Category 1 Hurricane.



Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah I've been keeping an eye on this and I'm hoping it will happen, because the west coast of Florida has been extremely dry for August standards. It's the driest to date I've seen it here for August so we could use a big rain event. Maybe we will get all our month's rainfall in the last week or so, lol.


Given the pattern coming up Jed I think the west coast of FL is in for a major rain event as a strong SW flow takes hold and add cold mid level temps to the mix we should see a wide spread rain event for several days.

Quoting hurricanehanna:

Gustav landed as a 1, Ike as a 2. They referenced the word "major"


According to the Archivial record here on WU they both came in as a CAT 2 with very low MB's which caused the storm surge. I'm just quoting the data on this web page.
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Ike was both. I think the major damage was from tidal surges as those came from it's pre-landfall winds, right? Didn't it then lose wind speed before landfall? So, it came across Houston less powerful than it really was at first, but the storm surge was already there, if I remember correctly.


The water was washing cars off some of the roads in my county on the TX/LA border the morning of the 11th. And it only got worse and spread west after that.
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Ike was both. I think the major damage was from tidal surges as those came from it's pre-landfall winds, right? Didn't it then lose wind speed before landfall? So, it came across Houston less powerful than it really was at first, but the storm surge was already there, if I remember correctly.
It was still pushing the cat 4 surge from earlier. Same thing with Katrina. That's why it's so important to remember that wind category is not automatically synonymous with surge potential. I feel sorry for some of the Bolivar residents who stayed to help others get to safety, then couldn't get out because they didnt' expect the kind of surge impacts that actually occurred. I really wouldn't advise anybody to stay on a barrier island as a storm approaches. Unlike much of the Bahamas, these islands are extremely vulnerable to 100% washover. At least here most islands have a few spots above 35 ft where residents can huddle to get away from the surge...
177. etxwx
And now for the Asian weather news...
China issues top alerts on typhoon Kai-Tak
Updated: 2012-08-16 21:03
Excerpt: BEIJING - Chinese marine environment authorities upgraded the alert about sea waves and storm surges to the highest level of red for the approaching typhoon Kai-Tak on Thursday afternoon. The move was made at 4 p.m., eight hours after the previous upgrade in the morning, the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center said in a report.
The center uses a four-tier color-coded wave warning system, with red being the most severe, followed by orange, yellow and blue. Typhoon Kai-Tak, the 13th of this year, was about 600 km to the southeast of Zhanjiang city of Guangdong province at 2 p.m. and was expected to hit the coastal area of southern Guangdong on Friday, at noon or during the afternoon, said the report. It forecast that from Thursday evening to Friday, northern waters in the South China Sea will produce waves six to eight meters high, while waters off coastal areas in Guangdong will see waves four to six meters high.
Quoting Msdrown:


According to the Archivial record here on WU they both came in as a CAT 2 with very low MB's which caused the storm surge. I'm just quoting the data on this web page.

my bad - Gustav was a 2. I thought I remembered landfall as a 1. It wasn't fun here...but points further East got it worse than us.
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Ike was both. I think the major damage was from tidal surges as those came from it's pre-landfall winds, right? Didn't it then lose wind speed before landfall? So, it came across Houston less powerful than it really was at first, but the storm surge was already there, if I remember correctly.
During the night of September 10, Ike exhibited a rapid drop in central pressure, falling from 963 mbar (28.44 inHg) to 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) as it passed over the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. This drop was not reflected by wind speed, however, which only increased to 100 mph (160 km/h) from 85 mph (140 km/h). Multiple wind maxima were noted by the National Hurricane Center, indicating the structure was absorbing and distributing energy over a large area, rather than concentrating it near the center. The pressure was significantly lower than normal for a low-end Category 2 hurricane, as 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) is more typical of a strong Category 3 or a Category 4 hurricane. Over the next two days, Ike maintained a steady course towards Galveston and Houston. It increased only slightly in intensity to 110 mph (175 km/h) %u2013 the high end of Category 2 %u2013 but exhibited an unusually large wind field. This caused a projected storm surge of a Category 4 height though the windspeeds were that of a Category 2. As it approached the Texas coast, the inner structure and eyewall became more organized.

Found this from Wikipedia
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Yes, I mentioned it in the parentheses :)

The NHC can't send HH there, can they?
Not unless they were already in the Azores, I'd guess.

Here is this morning's analysis of the big wave (Pouch 15L) emerging West Africa that the models develop.

P15L
13N, 7W
700 hPa

All models analyze an initial circulation that is oriented SW-NE over west Africa with an OW max on the SW end and another at the NE end. However, the models handle the situation quite differently. ECMWF & GFS tend to merge these features into a single, westward-moving pouch. UKMET and NOGAPS forecast the northeastern portion of the wave/pouch to be stronger and eventually emerge off of Africa, but slower and later than in ECMWF and GFS. In the meantime, UKMET and NOGAPS spin up an additional circulation to the west in the ITCZ/MT. Is the southwestern portion of the initial circulation playing some sort of role with the spin up of this additional circulation?


ECMWF: As it often does, ECMWF depicts yet another OW max in the center in the elongated initial circulation, which is what I use at that time for the position. The OW maxima merge as they become more S-N oriented over the African coast. The resultant single-OW max pouch then moves relatively straight westward over the eastern Atlantic, intensifying gradually and steadily.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, with the southwestern OW max stronger during the first couple days.

UKMET: Initial position is between the two OW maxima, and then UKMET strengthens the northeastern portion. That pouch eventually moves off of Africa, faster than NOGAPS but still east of ECMWF and GFS. Like NOGAPS, UKMET then develops a very strong additional pouch in the ITCZ/MT west/ahead to P15L, between P15L and P14L.

NOGAPS: Initial position is between the two OW maxima, and then NOGAPS, like UKMET, definitely favors the northeastern portion, almost dissipating the southwestern OW max by 12 hours. That results in a position that is farther east than in ECMWF & GFS. Then P15L moves slowly westward. Like UKMET, NOGAPS then develops a new circulation in the ITCZ/MT to the west/ahead of P15L.

Link
62 VR46L: exTD7 starting to get interesting for the first time in a while

It's never quit being interesting, not even during its crossing through Nicaragua and Honduras.
NHC shoulda never Deactivated the ATCF file.
Hmmmmmmm..... Microwave of Gordon


Quoting reedzone:
I believe Gordon has rapidly intensified to a Category 1 Hurricane.





You think Gordon has a shot at CAT 2? Maybe a 90knot storm? He will have 2 days to with good conditions, what direction will shear be out of on day 2 and 3? Because if it has a western component at all to it it may negate the shear impacts to this storm if it has enough forward speed. We have already seen Chris this year survive well into cooler waters. Azores need to be keen on this storm it could surprise them a bit.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Given the pattern coming up Jed I think the west coast of FL is in for a major rain event as a strong SW flow takes hold and add cold mid level temps to the mix we should see a wide spread rain event for several days.




Yeah we really need it now, and given that large rain events off the gulf are common in August and September due to stalling fronts from the north and large available moisture over warm waters mixing with these fronts, it seems reasonable to me.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Hmmmmmmm..... Microwave of Gordon




About to be hurricane Gordon

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found this on Twitter.

@spann

It has now been 2,500 days since a major hurricane made landfall on the U.S. coast%u2026 a record length of time.


This is not a record...
September 1860 to September 1869
9yrs or 3285days approx


Click image for full size
Of course this data is slightly questionable.
"During the first appearance of Gordon in November 1994, the storm moved very slowly over Eastern Cuba, and dropped prodigious rains over Haiti. The resulting flash flooding killed over 1,100 people. Unquestionably, the 1994 version of Gordon should have had its name retired, due to the devastating impact it had on Haiti. However, after the 1994 hurricane season, Haiti did not send a representative to the annual World Meteorological Organization meeting that decides retirement of hurricane names, and no other country affected by Gordon requested that the name be retired."

Thanks Dr. Masters, just goes to show you don't need a big powerful hurricane plowing through your front door to have lives taken and destruction to occur. Interesting storm track this Gordon took it was bouncing around making sure it visited as much countries as it could and while it didn't make landfall on Haiti the effects were still the same.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
During the night of September 10, Ike exhibited a rapid drop in central pressure, falling from 963 mbar (28.44 inHg) to 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) as it passed over the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. This drop was not reflected by wind speed, however, which only increased to 100 mph (160 km/h) from 85 mph (140 km/h). Multiple wind maxima were noted by the National Hurricane Center, indicating the structure was absorbing and distributing energy over a large area, rather than concentrating it near the center. The pressure was significantly lower than normal for a low-end Category 2 hurricane, as 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) is more typical of a strong Category 3 or a Category 4 hurricane. Over the next two days, Ike maintained a steady course towards Galveston and Houston. It increased only slightly in intensity to 110 mph (175 km/h) – the high end of Category 2 – but exhibited an unusually large wind field. This caused a projected storm surge of a Category 4 height though the windspeeds were that of a Category 2. As it approached the Texas coast, the inner structure and eyewall became more organized.


Snap, - yeah, I remember that. Very wide wind-field!!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The water was washing cars off some of the roads in my county on the TX/LA border the morning of the 11th. And it only got worse and spread west after that.


I cant remember which storm it was Ike or Gustav but the news was showing people standing at some type of walkway right at the beach and the waves were roaring over the railings and they were talking about they werent leaving and the storm hadnt even gotten there..might have been galveston?

In NC, they are fining people for failing to heed mandatory evacuation orders..

Not heeding evacuation orders in NC to get more expensive
Hey y'all...

Did another one of my detailed tropical updates this morning. My intensity forecast for Gordon was just a touch higher than NHC's...but if this keeps up...I wonder if I under-estimated him...

Quoting reedzone:
I believe Gordon has rapidly intensified to a Category 1 Hurricane.





Pinhole Eye?

Quoting Felix2007:
2006


2012
Gordon likes the Azores now, the first 2 Gordon's made landfall in FL.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It was still pushing the cat 4 surge from earlier. Same thing with Katrina. That's why it's so important to remember that wind category is not automatically synonymous with surge potential. I feel sorry for some of the Bolivar residents who stayed to help others get to safety, then couldn't get out because they didnt' expect the kind of surge impacts that actually occurred. I really wouldn't advise anybody to stay on a barrier island as a storm approaches. Unlike much of the Bahamas, these islands are extremely vulnerable to 100% washover. At least here most islands have a few spots above 35 ft where residents can huddle to get away from the surge...


Thats how barrier Islands get formed. From big storms. Good Advice you have there.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


You think Gordon has a shot at CAT 2? Maybe a 90knot storm? He will have 2 days to with good conditions, what direction will shear be out of on day 2 and 3? Because if it has a western component at all to it it may negate the shear impacts to this storm if it has enough forward speed. We have already seen Chris this year survive well into cooler waters. Azores need to be keen on this storm it could surprise them a bit.

Remember the HWRF had Gordon hitting 106.1kts. Could it really be right?
East Atlantic:


I see couple of small waves, but not too much is coming out of Africa.

Meanwhile, TS Gordon is VERY impressive. I will not be surprised if it's a hurricane at 5 pm. I'll give it a 60% of being a hurricane by 11 pm TWOs.

Lets remember that we do have people that live in the Azores, this isn't a pretty picture for them..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

History in the making, guys.

Ike and Gustav in '08 were cat 2s @ landfall...so that sounds right.

So I think we have to go all the way back to Wilma 2005....which was a cat3 at landfall (cat 3 or higher = major hurricane)...

Wow...it really has been so long since the US has seen a major hurricane landfall. This is interesting...since 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and now 2012 have been really active...
Gordon is likely going to be stronger than I forecasted yesterday... And I went on the high end on intensity with my forecast... So I thought!

Quoting Bluestorm5:
During the night of September 10, Ike exhibited a rapid drop in central pressure, falling from 963 mbar (28.44 inHg) to 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) as it passed over the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. This drop was not reflected by wind speed, however, which only increased to 100 mph (160 km/h) from 85 mph (140 km/h). Multiple wind maxima were noted by the National Hurricane Center, indicating the structure was absorbing and distributing energy over a large area, rather than concentrating it near the center. The pressure was significantly lower than normal for a low-end Category 2 hurricane, as 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) is more typical of a strong Category 3 or a Category 4 hurricane. Over the next two days, Ike maintained a steady course towards Galveston and Houston. It increased only slightly in intensity to 110 mph (175 km/h) %u2013 the high end of Category 2 %u2013 but exhibited an unusually large wind field. This caused a projected storm surge of a Category 4 height though the windspeeds were that of a Category 2. As it approached the Texas coast, the inner structure and eyewall became more organized.

Found this from Wikipedia


Ike was a strange hurricane in terms of structure as it approached land and made landfall, powerful though that's for sure.
Quoting Jeff9645:


Typical, every day, every year normal thunderstorms! Its not like its an amazing thing that afternoon storms form ya know but hey some people get really excited over some rain and thunder!


I agree that our typical summer thunderstorms (especially posting about them constantly) can become tiresome. These thunderstorms, however, are the most interesting and exciting weather we usually experience from May-September. If it were not for these, our summer weather would be unbearable, boring and the Florida landscape would look like a desert.

It appears that storm in the Atlantic the models are picking up on for next week is forecast to take the path that most Cape Verde storms do-out to sea.
Speaking of Ike, when a storm is approaching don't be this guy!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLykQrCLKE8
Quoting GTcooliebai:
"During the first appearance of Gordon in November 1994, the storm moved very slowly over Eastern Cuba, and dropped prodigious rains over Haiti. The resulting flash flooding killed over 1,100 people. Unquestionably, the 1994 version of Gordon should have had its name retired, due to the devastating impact it had on Haiti. However, after the 1994 hurricane season, Haiti did not send a representative to the annual World Meteorological Organization meeting that decides retirement of hurricane names, and no other country affected by Gordon requested that the name be retired."

Thanks Dr. Masters, just goes to show you don't need a big powerful hurricane plowing through your front door to have lives taken and destruction to occur. Interesting storm track this Gordon took it was bouncing around making sure it visited as much countries as it could and while it didn't make landfall on Haiti the effects were still the same.

1994 Gordon also killed 500 in Haiti and left 1000's homeless.

Link
Quoting Bluestorm5:
East Atlantic:


I see couple of small waves, but not too much is coming out of Africa.

Meanwhile, TS Gordon is VERY impressive. I will not be surprised if it's a hurricane at 5 pm. I'll give it a 60% of being a hurricane by 11 pm TWOs.


Dang! Is Gordon is undergoing RI? ...based on that visible loop and that microwave image.

Dag nabbit...I hate suprises like this...
Good Morning. Interesting "split" between the lower trajectories of the more recent CV waves (that did not develop/finally developed in the case of Ernesto) after getting into the Caribbean because of their weakened state and Gordon, and the models as to the next wave, which are developing before making it to the Antilles thus taking them out into the Central Atlantic. We have yet to see a classic long track CV storm that does not fully develop until just before reaching the Antilles as a TD or TS then enters into the Caribbean, or steers towards PR, as a hurricane or close to it. That type of system/trajectory are the ones to worry about if it comes to pass.......Fish storms (with the exception of impacts to Bermuda or the Azores) are a good thing.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah we really need it now, and given that large rain events off the gulf are common in August and September due to stalling fronts from the north and large available moisture over warm waters mixing with these fronts, it seems reasonable to me.
I am in Cape Coral and have not heard anything about this potentially heavy rain event. TWC has us with a 30% chance of rain for the next four days. What's up with that?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
East Atlantic:


I see couple of small waves, but not too much is coming out of Africa.

Meanwhile, TS Gordon is VERY impressive. I will not be surprised if it's a hurricane at 5 pm. I'll give it a 60% of being a hurricane by 11 pm TWOs.



I think the African loop is not updated. Here is in real time what is going on there.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Ike and Gustav in '08 were cat 2s @ landfall...so that sounds right.

So I think we have to go all the way back to Wilma 2005....which was a cat3 at landfall (cat 3 or higher = major hurricane)...

Wow...it really has been so long since the US has seen a major hurricane landfall. This is interesting...since 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and now 2012 have been really active...

Check #187. 1860-1869 didn't have a major. 3285days approx with out a major.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It was still pushing the cat 4 surge from earlier. Same thing with Katrina. That's why it's so important to remember that wind category is not automatically synonymous with surge potential. I feel sorry for some of the Bolivar residents who stayed to help others get to safety, then couldn't get out because they didnt' expect the kind of surge impacts that actually occurred. I really wouldn't advise anybody to stay on a barrier island as a storm approaches. Unlike much of the Bahamas, these islands are extremely vulnerable to 100% washover. At least here most islands have a few spots above 35 ft where residents can huddle to get away from the surge...


Yep, some try to "hunker down" to ride it out, but hunkering down doesn't help when your entire house goes underwater. The Bolivar disaster was horrible. It roiled me at times when the forecasters wait so long to issue warnings for possible evacuations. Even if they don't actually say "evacuate", sooner, they need to influence people's mindframes & get people ready to possibly do so much sooner, or else many could get caught in traffic jams & never make it out in a major hurricane. I know it is costly to do evacuations, but what is the cost of many lives if a storm doesn't do what they think it should?
Quoting ncstorm:


I cant remember which storm it was Ike or Gustav but the news was showing people standing at some type of walkway right at the beach and the waves were roaring over the railings and they were talking about they werent leaving and the storm hadnt even gotten there..might have been galveston?

In NC, they are fining people for failing to heed mandatory evacuation orders..

Not heeding evacuation orders in NC to get more expensive


What I found telling and sad was the amount of videos on youtube of Coast Guard rescues before the storm. Ike was huge and pushing a lot of water.

I think there's a law in TX now where they can bodily remove you from an evacuation area?

Lol. Sorry NOW the link works. :)
Ike images








Ike from the ISS





Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Yep, some try to "hunker down" to ride it out, but hunkering down doesn't help when your entire house goes underwater. The Bolivar disaster was horrible. It roiled me at times when the forecasters wait so long to issue warnings for possible evacuations. Even if they don't actually say "evacuate", sooner, they need to influence people's mindframes & get people ready to possibly do so much sooner, or else many could get caught in traffic jams & never make it out in a major hurricane. I know it is costly to do evacuations, but what is the cost of many lives if a storm doesn't do what they think it should?


-- Not talking about Ike in the matter of late warnings or no warnings, but at other times.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Gordon is likely going to be stronger than I forecasted yesterday... And I went on the high end on intensity with my forecast... So I thought!


Its pulling an Humberto mid-ocean...I really wish we understood why Humberto-like scenarios happen...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Its pulling an Humberto mid-ocean...I really wish we understood why Humberto-like scenarios happen...

I guess, perfect conditions allow systems to bomb out big time.
Quoting AussieStorm:

1994 Gordon also killed 500 in Haiti and left 1000's homeless.

Link
That is what I was implying it doesn't have to be the winds and storm surge that kill it is the fresh water flooding. Good link.
Gordon RGB Loop

217. wpb
gordon will weaken the ridge causing anything moving off africa to curve north
Quoting Bluestorm5:
During the night of September 10, Ike exhibited a rapid drop in central pressure, falling from 963 mbar (28.44 inHg) to 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) as it passed over the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. This drop was not reflected by wind speed, however, which only increased to 100 mph (160 km/h) from 85 mph (140 km/h). Multiple wind maxima were noted by the National Hurricane Center, indicating the structure was absorbing and distributing energy over a large area, rather than concentrating it near the center. The pressure was significantly lower than normal for a low-end Category 2 hurricane, as 944 mbar (27.88 inHg) is more typical of a strong Category 3 or a Category 4 hurricane. Over the next two days, Ike maintained a steady course towards Galveston and Houston. It increased only slightly in intensity to 110 mph (175 km/h) %u2013 the high end of Category 2 %u2013 but exhibited an unusually large wind field. This caused a projected storm surge of a Category 4 height though the windspeeds were that of a Category 2. As it approached the Texas coast, the inner structure and eyewall became more organized.

Found this from Wikipedia


Water level in my House in Lake Charles was actually
some 4-5 inches higher from Ika than from Rita and Rita passed much closer to us..I think Dr, M. did a
post on "integrated kinetic energy" or Ironically
the "IKE" scale as a more accurate way to describe
storm strength...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I think the African loop is not updated. Here is in real time what is going on there.



I'm thinking that the African wave is going to be a contender.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


What I found telling and sad was the amount of videos on youtube of Coast Guard rescues before the storm. Ike was huge and pushing a lot of water.

I think there's a law in TX now where they can bodily remove you from an evacuation area?


I think so....because it was endangering rescue crew members by not evacuating & thus putting then foolishly at risk of their lives for the stupid peeps not evacuating.

BTW, if Ike had tracked a mere 20 miles more to the West, I would have possibly been hit much harder. As it was, I was on the "easier" side of the storm.
Quoting UWalkTheMall:
I am in Cape Coral and have not heard anything about this potentially heavy rain event. TWC has us with a 30% chance of rain for the next four days. What's up with that?



lol I don't know what to tell you, it doesn't have full model support, maybe that's why, I'm not counting on it but it does look good. Bay news 9 seems to be picking up on it somewhat as they have the later half of the extended forecast at 50% with cooler temps. they are probably waiting to see how it materializes before bumping them up too much more. I'm not jumping on the gun until I see it but given that such events are common in August it seems reasonable that a wetter pattern for the coast will arrive.
Quoting Patrap:
Ike images








Ike from the ISS








Now that is telling.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That is what I was implying it doesn't have to be the winds and storm surge that kill it is the fresh water flooding. Good link.

The NHC has a very good archive which goes back to 1958.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


What I found telling and sad was the amount of videos on youtube of Coast Guard rescues before the storm. Ike was huge and pushing a lot of water.

I think there's a law in TX now where they can bodily remove you from an evacuation area?

Lol. Sorry NOW the link works. :)


Okay great..glad to hear Texas is doing that..NC should follow suit..
Quoting Jedkins01:



lol I don't know what to tell you, it doesn't have full model support, maybe that's why, I'm not counting on it but it does look good. Bay news 9 seems to be picking up on it somewhat as they have the later half of the extended forecast at 50% with cooler temps. they are probably waiting to see how it materializes before bumping them up too much more. I'm not jumping on the gun until I see it but given that such events are common in August it seems reasonable that a wetter pattern for the coast will arrive.

Thank you Jed. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens. :)
Quoting AussieStorm:

I guess, perfect conditions allow systems to bomb out big time.


That could be but sometimes conditions are perfect and a storm doesn't intensify as much as expected. Intensity forecast are still the most difficult.
Regarding Florida weather being boring or repetitive to talk about - yesterday at around 4pm or so a barrel shaped funnel cloud nearly touched down in my neighborhood. I was shocked at just how quiet it was, everything was still. The radar showed no sign of any vortex, but it was there. Florida thunderstorms can be extremely dangerous only because people become complacent with them, used to them. I just wish I had thought to get a picture of this funnel, I wonder if anyone in the Brandon/Plant City area saw it, I certainly did. We could see the swirl in the clouds after it had lifted.
"Plant city" that sounds like a interesting city.
Consequences of the X factor inspired Drought Nationally.


Salt water encroaching low Mississippi River, threatening New Orleans drinking water

Published: Thursday, August 16, 2012, 7:04 AM Updated: Thursday, August 16, 2012, 7:17 AM



NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana -- Gov. Bobby Jindal on Wednesday declared a state of emergency for Plaquemines Parish as it deals with encroaching salt water that's threatening drinking water in the New Orleans area.

The declaration clears the way for state agencies to offer help to the parish as it deals with its water supply issues. Due to the Mississippi River's low water levels, salt water has been moving far upriver and was at the outskirts of New Orleans by Wednesday, nearly 90 miles north of the mouth of the Mississippi. Also Wednesday, Plaquemines Parish issued an advisory to parish residents that high levels of sodium and chloride were being measured in drinking water.

The river was closed temporarily to shipping traffic as contractors began building an underwater barrier that the Army Corps of Engineers says will stop the advance of salt water. Many communities along the river draw freshwater from the Mississippi with freshwater intakes and water treatment facilities that are incompatible with saltwater caused by the current intrusion.

The Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness is providing 30,000 bottles of water to the parish over the next several days, at the parish's request. The Louisiana National Guard will deploy a truck that contains 4,000 gallons of water to the parish Thursday and will continue to provide this same supply for five days, officials said.

River traffic had to be closed for about three miles while the Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Co., installed a pipeline needed to build the massive underwater sill. The river was expected to reopen Wednesday evening.
The company will dredge sediment to build up the barrier at a point near Myrtle Grove in Plaquemines. The company was given an $8.1 million contract to do the work. The barrier is expected to be done in 45 days.

Ricky Boyett, a corps spokesman, said the sill will begin pushing the salt water back into the Gulf of Mexico in about two weeks. The salt water is expected to be stopped by the sill and then pushed out by the flow of the river. The corps says underwater sills have stopped salt water intrusion in the past. Sills were constructed in 1988 and 1999.

Typically the rush of freshwater down the Mississippi River keeps salt water contained to the southernmost portions of the river. But in times of drought the Gulf's salt water can move farther inland. The river's stage has been a couple feet below the mean average at New Orleans.

During the construction of the barrier, river traffic will be reduced to one lane as it passes the construction zone, Boyett said.
Matt Gresham, a spokesman for the Port of New Orleans, said the port's operations would not be slowed down by the sill work. He said Wednesday's temporary closing had left shippers mostly unaffected.

The sodium and chloride levels being measured in Plaquemines were not considered a health threat but people on dialysis, on low-sodium diets, with high-blood pressure and suffering from kidney diseases were being advised to consult with their doctors.
Caitlin Campbell, a Plaquemines spokeswoman, said the parish was pumping water from Belle Chasse to southern parts of the parish to dilute the sodium and chloride. The parish also was ready to bring drinking water downriver by barge, she said.
"We're not going to let our citizens go without drinking water," Campbell said.

Related topics: Mississippi River

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Quoting washingtonian115:
"Plant city" that sounds like a interesting city.


Not really no, unless you're over 60 and love Strawberries.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Quoting AussieStorm:

I guess, perfect conditions allow systems to bomb out big time.


I'd say upper level conditions may play the largest factor in these scenarios. Didn't humberto have a trough to his west as well that lifted him off in a northeast direction.

Gordon does seem to be experiencing some southwest shear right now too, this is why we don't see any cirrus outflow to his west and south.
Oh wow.... this is bad...



Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought covered over 60 percent of the contiguous 48 states as of mid-August 2012, although significant expansion finally halted during the last couple of weeks. Still, almost one-quarter of the country was experiencing extreme to exceptional drought (D3 – D4 on the Drought Monitor), primarily in a large swath generally extending from the central Rockies eastward through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Many locations from Indiana, the western reaches of Tennessee and Kentucky, and Arkansas westward through parts of Iowa, central Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma received 8 to 12 inches less precipitation than normal April 1 – August 14, 2012, with a few areas reporting deficits exceeding one foot. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 51 percent of the corn crop was in poor or very poor condition across the 18 primary corn-producing states, as was 48 percent of sorghum (11 primary producing states) and 38 percent of soybeans (18 states). For the contiguous 48 states as a whole, 59 percent of pastures and rangelands were in poor or very poor condition, with 4 states reporting more than 90 percent of their pastures and rangelands in poor or very poor condition (Missouri 98 percent, Illinois 94 percent, Nebraska 92 percent, Kansas 90 percent) and another 6 states topping 85 percent. The Drought Outlook valid through the end of November 2012 indicates drought conditions will remain essentially unchanged in large sections of the central Mississippi Valley, the central and southwestern Great Plains, most of the High Plains, the central Rockies, the Great Basin, and parts of the Far West, though the seasonal declines in temperatures, evaporative moisture loss, and water demand should preclude any widespread worsening of conditions. At least some improvement is forecast for much of the central Rockies, the Southwest, the southern Great Plains, the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes region, the upper Midwest, and the eastern tier of states. In Hawaii, the odds favor cooler- and drier-than-normal conditions through the rest of the year as a whole, which should cause drought to persist and expand through most of the state except for eastern sections of the Big Island. The developing El Niño episode, expected to last through the winter, could begin to bring above-normal precipitation to parts of the southern and eastern states late in the period.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not really no, unless you're over 60 and love Strawberries.
Blah, ha, ha, ha! That's all of Florida except the coastal areas.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Regarding Florida weather being boring or repetitive to talk about - yesterday at around 4pm or so a barrel shaped funnel cloud nearly touched down in my neighborhood. I was shocked at just how quiet it was, everything was still. The radar showed no sign of any vortex, but it was there. Florida thunderstorms can be extremely dangerous only because people become complacent with them, used to them. I just wish I had thought to get a picture of this funnel, I wonder if anyone in the Brandon/Plant City area saw it, I certainly did. We could see the swirl in the clouds after it had lifted.


NWS Miami %u200F@NWSMiami
Shwrs & T-Strms popping across S FL especially from Homestead to Aventura! Use caution while driving!! http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/hazards/ #flwx#swfl
Quoting AussieStorm:

The NHC has a very good archive which goes back to 1958.


Here's the link to that archive Aussie mentioned:
NHC Storm Archive
Quoting Msdrown:


Thats how barrier Islands get formed. From big storms. Good Advice you have there.
Agreed... same kinda stuff happens here. It's just that most islands have "sand dune" hills that have built up over time to not be shifted by wind / wave action. Most islands have at least one ridge of hills over 50 ft. acting almost like a "spine", usually oriented towards the edge of the nearest bank. It makes a big difference.

Of course the higher elevation often also means greater exposure to the 10m winds...

Quoting reedzone:
Lets remember that we do have people that live in the Azores, this isn't a pretty picture for them..
It would be very interesting if Gordon remains a hurricane when it gets there. Even extratropical Gordon would bring some impacts, though, and I'm sure they will be bracing for some bad weather.

12z GFS 42 hrs.

169 Bobbyweather: The NHC can't send HH there, can they?

Don't know why not. The USAirForce had been flying C-130 TalkingBirds outta Bermuda well nigh forever.
So unless they've quit, and pulled out ground support, HurricaneHunters shouldn't have a problem.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Regarding Florida weather being boring or repetitive to talk about - yesterday at around 4pm or so a barrel shaped funnel cloud nearly touched down in my neighborhood. I was shocked at just how quiet it was, everything was still. The radar showed no sign of any vortex, but it was there. Florida thunderstorms can be extremely dangerous only because people become complacent with them, used to them. I just wish I had thought to get a picture of this funnel, I wonder if anyone in the Brandon/Plant City area saw it, I certainly did. We could see the swirl in the clouds after it had lifted.


No one said it was boring. I think the original post was about having to know every time there is a thunderstorm or not one there.

The blog is dominated by Florida residents for obvious reasons. I'll admit that it gets old at times having to sift through Florida weather posts, unless it's something fairly significant. StormTracker posted some great photos of weather from Florida that happened yesterday. That stuff is interesting. Even if it does get old, it sure beats any political or climate change talk. So please, Floridians, post away about your weather. If the worst thing you can do is post about weather on a weather blog then that is okay with me.
Quoting ncstorm:


Okay great..glad to hear Texas is doing that..NC should follow suit..
Was it N FL during Ivan where the pple walking door to door were telling pple to write their SS#s on their torsos and forearms in indelible marker so their bodies could be IDed after the storm?

Enjoy your day watching Gordon continue to get better looking.



This is the only Gordon I know and he's fugly.

Give me this Gordon any day.



Goodnight all. Stay well, stay safe.
I believe it was during Ike's Landfall that this Blog had the Highest number of page Views ever.


Dr. Jeff Masters mentioned it a few days later in a entry.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Gordon is likely going to be stronger than I forecasted yesterday... And I went on the high end on intensity with my forecast... So I thought!



According to that sketch you posted of the suspected track of Gordon, you have it with more or less certainty hitting some part of the coast of Morocco.
Now to say the least, that would be very interesting.
Has anybody got a good up to date trajectory chart for Gordon?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Enjoy your day watching Gordon continue to get better looking.



This is the only Gordon I know and he's fugly.

Give me this Gordon any day.



Goodnight all. Stay well, stay safe.
Haha Chef Gordon Ramsey on Hell's Kitchen. Enjoy your day Aussie.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Enjoy your day watching Gordon continue to get better looking.



This is the only Gordon I know and he's fugly.

Give me this Gordon any day.



Goodnight all. Stay well, stay safe.

Good night
Im going to bed as well.
I have no problems with people posting about Florida..I dont know why we have to police the blog in telling people what they can or shouldnt post..its weather..
If Gordon becomes a hurricane(Which is more than likely) we will have 8-7-3-0.Pretty impressive for just another dead beat El nino year right?.In terms of hurricanes this is certainly surpassing 2011 so far....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Was it N FL during Ivan where the pple walking door to door were telling pple to write their SS#s on their torsos and forearms in indelible marker so their bodies could be IDed after the storm?



Yeah, Im not sure about the storm but I remember some bloggers posting that..sometimes people need to hear that to see how serious it is..
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


What I found telling and sad was the amount of videos on youtube of Coast Guard rescues before the storm. Ike was huge and pushing a lot of water.

I think there's a law in TX now where they can bodily remove you from an evacuation area?

Lol. Sorry NOW the link works. :)


What's really pathetic is that Ike arrived after K...K...Ka..., the K storm that devastated NOLA, Alabama, MS, and parts of Florida.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Enjoy your day watching Gordon continue to get better looking.



This is the only Gordon I know and he's fugly.

Give me this Gordon any day.



Goodnight all. Stay well, stay safe.


Love that show..LOL!! "SHUT IT DOWN!"
My big problems are

1. extensive posting of non-wx topics.

2. wrangling and bickering over non-wx posts / topics.

An occasional OT post about a member's Olympic team win or something like what RitaEvac posted re. Israel / Iran this a.m. is not going to kill the blog.

It's the overkill and personal attacks that make things nasty in here.
Quoting Patrap:
Ike images








Ike from the ISS





Ike was bad all the way up into Ohio..Another shot from the ISS..
The 12Z GFS develops the EATL Wave. We should have a 20% circle at 2PM and invest 94L.
Quoting ncstorm:


Love that show..LOL!! "SHUT IT DOWN!"


Kitchen Nightmares UK version is better, IMO.
Quoting Patrap:
I believe it was during Ike's Landfall that this Blog had the Highest number of page Views ever.


Dr. Jeff Masters mentioned it a few days later in a entry.


I missed out as it was lights out for me
Quoting BahaHurican:
My big problems are

1. extensive posting of non-wx topics.

2. wrangling and bickering over non-wx posts / topics.

An occasional OT post about a member's Olympic team win or something like what RitaEvac posted re. Israel / Iran this a.m. is not going to kill the blog.

It's the overkill and personal attacks that make things nasty in here.

Shut up, nobody asked you.

Lol jk.
I remember when Klotzbatch team released their outlook in April calling for only 10 named storms 4 of those hurricanes and only 2 majors(we have yet to see one).It's August and we're quickly catching up to that original forecast.Glad they revised it though as it was to conservative.
Quoting RitaEvac:


I missed out as it was lights out for me


Lol me too
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shut up, nobody asked you.

Lol jk.


Someone should really call your parents and your school and tell them that you are on a blog during class. Hmmmm...What school do you attend again?
Mandatory evacuation laws are always problematic. The Texas law allows a plice officer to arrest you and take you into custody if you refuse a mandatory evacuation order. This works if only a few are not following the order, but you can't arrest an entire town. The key is good public information, so people know the chances are greater that they will die than not if they refuse to leave. We used a form that had to be filled out for people that refused to leave flood evacuation areas. It included things like next of kin information and identifying information like birthmarks and tattoos. When asked why they had to fill out the form, we told the person it would make it easier to identify their body when we recovered it and allow us to notify next of kin more quickly. Most people took the hint pretty fast when the probability of death was staring them in the face. The NWS can really help with this by issuing strongly worded warnings, like the famous one issued just before Katrina's landfall.
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


After experiencing Andrew at its worst (I used to live in Cutler Ridge) I know what a storm can do, and the lives it can kill & destroy. I lost my house and neighbors lost they lives.

Its the cheerleading on this blog that is totally sick.
This would not be a problem if the person u named was a cheerleader. I know we do have a few here. But mostly not. And not seer.

And if u lived in Cutler, u prolly talked already to Grothar...

Don't feel we don't understand. Andrew was no picnic in the Bahamas, either. We lost 5 out of 250,000. First hurricane related deaths in a generation. Even if others don't get it, I do.

Quoting NativeSun:
Hurricanes are a part of life if you live on or near the coast from Texas to Canada. Hurricanes are part of nature and help clean up the enviorment and we as people who live in the hurricane prone areas need to deal with this fact of life. I've been trough many magor hurricanes including Donna, Betsy and Andrew, it is quite exciting while there happening but the aftermath,destruction and clean up are hard on everyone affected. But iI would rather live in an area affected by Hurricanes than Tornadoes,Fires,Eartquakes or Ice Storms just to name a few of natures other killers.
Word.
Can someone post the rest of the model runs of the GFS?.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Lol me too


That was before smart phones? at least I didn't have one, I could use it during and after storm to see wth is going on, but can't be using cell phone battery for that when in a hurricane situation and need battery life for making emergency calls to contacts,etc...
Quoting MississippiWx:


Someone should really call your parents and your school and tell them that you are on a blog during class. Hmmmm...What school do you attend again?

That's none of your business, lol.

Im on my lunch break.😄
12z GFS

114 hours
269. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


Love that show..LOL!! "SHUT IT DOWN!"


There's actually something nice about him when he is changing his whites top to ordinary shirt..lol ...I dont know if you get Ramseys kitchen nightmeres over there..

Anyway the other Gordon in rainbow

Quoting BahaHurican:
Was it N FL during Ivan where the pple walking door to door were telling pple to write their SS#s on their torsos and forearms in indelible marker so their bodies could be IDed after the storm?




That is the normal proceedure for all law enforcement and Emergency workes now when a evac has been ordered and they go through for a final clearing. People tell them they are going to stay and the next questions is Next of Kin ph# and S/S and write it on your arm.
Quoting ncstorm:
I have no problems with people posting about Florida..I dont know why we have to police the blog in telling people what they can or shouldnt post..its weather..
..yes I agree, i do it all the time but..i also post about other area's as well, just seems like there are alot of floridians posting here and its natural for them to post about florida..now there are alot of texans here also who post about Their weather etc..maybe we could use more northerners and westeners posting here too, i notice several californians post here later in the evenings as goes the time differences..but its up to the people who LIVE in those other area's of the country to post huh..we have alot of islanders who post in here as well dont we..not much anyone can do, its up to the people to post about their weather, its that simple...for me I post what i want to, mostly about the weather, florida and otherwise, i try to post the warnings all over as i have the time to do so as well..and others do that also and im sure doc appreciates it all that everyone is doing here, keeping mostly on topic and keeping the post count high..its all we can do.
Quoting Patrap:
I believe it was during Ike's Landfall that this Blog had the Highest number of page Views ever.


Dr. Jeff Masters mentioned it a few days later in a entry.

with respect to Gordo,
CMC takes it up toward the Emerald Isle. No fine summer weather for the Irish...

(i quoted the wrong Patrap note..meant to quote Plaza Red)
Pretty strong system showing up on the GFS east of the islands. Better hope it stays strong and doesn't encounter southwesterly shear as it will have a better chance at recurving.

Huge amounts of moisture headed for the gulf.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's none of your business, lol.

Im on my lunch break.😄


Haha, oh i remember lunch... the trouble that was caused...

12z GFS shows the wave forming again.
Quoting jascott1967:


What's really pathetic is that Ike arrived after K...K...Ka..., the K storm that devastated NOLA, Alabama, MS, and parts of Florida.
I think the Rita "fiasco" made some in the Galveston bay area feel differently about Ike's approach. Also remember by that time that a lot of the media "hype" had turned to blaming NOLA's unique geography, a bowl-shaped city, as the cause of the many negative impacts of Katrina. There was extensive downplaying or overlooking of the storm surge impacts on the MS coast, which is what Galveston Bay residents SHOULD have been thinking about.

But hindsight is 20/20....
Quoting VR46L:


There's actually something nice about him when he is changing his whites top to ordinary shirt..lol ...I dont know if you get Ramseys kitchen nightmeres..

Anyway the other Gordon in rainbow



I saw it one time and he seemed tamer in the UK version than the American version which is "bleep..bleep..you donkey..bleep"..LOL..
Quoting sar2401:
Mandatory evacuation laws are always problematic. The Texas law allows a plice officer to arrest you and take you into custody if you refuse a mandatory evacuation order. This works if only a few are not following the order, but you can't arrest an entire town. The key is good public information so people know the chances are greater that they will die than not if they refuse to leave. We used a form that had to be filled out for people that refused to leave flood evacuation areas. It included things like next of kin information and identifying information like birthmarks and tattoos. When asked why they had to fill out the form, we told the person it would make it easier to identify their body when we recovered it and allow us to notify next of kin more quickly. Most people took the hint pretty fast when the probability of death was staring them in the face. The NWS can really hep with this by issuing strongly worded warnings, like the famous one issued just before Katrina's landfall.


Yeah, but the Galveston bear should have been arrested and probably wasn't because the entire police department were LOL.

It's odd to note, when I was living in Minnesota the NWS strongly emphasized in their Snow Storm Warnings "if you venture out you are taking your own lifes at risk" but I don't recall such warnings here in Texas when a Hurricane Warning has been posted. Of course, in MN snow storm advisory's/warnings were common so maybe I just remember them more.
126 hours..wasnt this depicted on the GFS in earlier runs to head out to sea way before it got here?
Quoting washingtonian115:
If Gordon becomes a hurricane(Which is more than likely) we will have 8-7-3-0.Pretty impressive for just another dead beat El nino year right?.In terms of hurricanes this is certainly surpassing 2011 so far....


NO IT'S DEAD...IT'S OVER BLAH BLAH :P

Just who is in that profile pic of yours headbanging?! LOL


"Was it N FL during Ivan where the pple walking door to door were telling pple to write their SS#s on their torsos and forearms in indelible marker so their bodies could be IDed after the storm?"

It's harsh, but I think that would be more a deterrent than fines and they should do it everytime.

In the UK you get some huge storm tides and people playing chicken on the promenades...and subsequently some do get washed out. Combine that with some of those places are party towns, and those doing it are sometimes really drunk (you'd have to see how Brits drink to know what I really mean), lifeguard can be kept busy saving stupid people in really bad and dangerous conditions. Same as people who go hiking in the mountains here unprepared. The rescue volunteers keep a log of the rescues, and you can tell they're none too happy with these people many times!
Quoting jascott1967:


What's really pathetic is that Ike arrived after K...K...Ka..., the K storm that devastated NOLA, Alabama, MS, and parts of Florida.


Thats very true. I was lurking here at the time without a account. But I was posting on the internet on various articles that reported it. These poster from there said they were staying and having parties. I did my best doom and gloom speach based on my experience with K. Don't know if they heeded the warning or not.
GFS and ECMWF always had a poleward bias when showing STRONG storms forming east. an example of this is hurricane Ivan. they had it turning east of 55W east of 60W east of 70W. it turned out he turned RIGHT INTO ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. once we get something, it will be up to the ridges and troughs showing the possible scenarios
Quoting washingtonian115:
"Plant city" that sounds like a interesting city.
they have the Best strawberries and festival there in season, go there every year
TWC just announced that Dr Postel is having a live chat RIGHT NOW on Tropical storms.
Quoting RitaEvac:


I missed out as it was lights out for me
We're just glad u r still around to tell the tales...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shut up, nobody asked you.

Lol jk.
LOL... u started it... lol

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's none of your business, lol.

Im on my lunch break.😄
See, this is what I call blog dedication... lol

Quoting LargoFl:
they have the Best strawberries and festival there in season, go there every year
Oh yes and at the end of the night you get to make your own strawberry shortcake.
132 hours
BBL... gotta make a run.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's none of your business, lol.

Im on my lunch break.😄


You must have been on a lunch break all day. I've seen posts from you from the first page of comments until now. Nice try.
144 hours

Quoting RitaEvac:


That was before smart phones? at least I didn't have one, I could use it during and after storm to see wth is going on, but can't be using cell phone battery for that when in a hurricane situation and need battery life for making emergency calls to contacts,etc...


That is very true. I had a piece of crap blackberry but had it off most of the time unless I needed to contact someone.
Folks there are several flood advisories for Maine, they must have had one huge rainstorm up there...................................FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1037 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

MEC007-025-161830-
/O.NEW.KGYX.FA.Y.0051.120816T1437Z-120816T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SOMERSET ME-FRANKLIN ME-
1037 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MAINE...
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WESTERN MAINE...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 1029 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO SHOWERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4586 6992 4567 6978 4547 6976 4502 6963
4496 7007 4480 7069 4506 7073 4559 7045

$$

TFH
That wave by Africa is impressive.Since it has model support from the two top models and the Garbage ones(ncstorms should pick up this.Lol) I bet the NHC immediately gives this a 20% chance with a side of invest.
when is the tail end of the front coming across the states anticipated to be in the GOM ?
156 hours
Yes, Florida storms are seripous business. This came from yesterday's news:

WHITE CITY — A strong midday storm apparently threw a high-energy lightning bolt directly into the side of a home on Tuesday, blasting a hole in the concrete block and spewing rubble outward.

Owner Paula O'Neal wasn't home at the time, but her three dogs, birds, rabbits and an infant squirrel on an electric incubator were, and they weren't harmed.

"Poor babies," she said of the pets in the home in the 5400 block of Palmetto Drive. "It must have been one ruckus. They are looking at me like 'you are not going to leave me?,'" she said Wednesday.

Initially O'Neal didn't see that her house was struck. All she knew was that her cable television was out.

"Then a neighbor came over and had a piece of my house in their hand," she said. "I said 'oh my goodness'."

On the north side of her house, she found chunks knocked out of the wall, leaving a hole about 3- to 4-feet wide that didn't penetrate into the house. At the center, only a thin membrane of concrete covers the drywall inside the house, she said.

"Lightning is quite powerful," said National Weather Service meteorologist Matt Bragaw. A typical lighting bolt has 100 million volts, compared to 110 volts in a standard house outlet. All that is concentrated into a lighting bolt with a quarter-size diameter, creating a force "exceeding a nuclear reactor," Bragaw said.

Quoting washingtonian115:
That wave by Africa is impressive.Since it has model support from the two top models and the Garbage ones(ncstorms should pick up this.Lol) I bet the NHC immediately gives this a 20% chance with a side of invest.


yup lookin good
would love to see the rainfall totals for maine, this has been going on since early this morning gee..stay safe up there folks...................
Quoting ncstorm:
156 hours
Don't be surprised to see the GFS go more northward.I agree with the Euro at this time in terms of track...Still a ways out though.Did you pick on the joke in post 294?
Okay fishs time begins... i hate when everything develops too far east and leave us without rain...
Classic Cape Verde hurricane being portrayed by the models today.
162 hours

National Weather Service New Orleans la
1000 am CDT Thursday Aug 16 2012


Previous discussion... /issued 355 am CDT Thursday Aug 16 2012/


Short term...once again it was a quiet night but look for the
weather to become a little more active beginning today. Temperatures
overnight have dropped into the middle 70s to lower 80s.


Today could be the least active day of the bunch but that said we
will still see almost twice as much convection this afternoon as we have
the last 2 days. Moisture has already been increasing and is
expected to through the day with precipitable waters near or above 2". The low we have
been talking about for a week is deepening over Ontario currently
with a l/west trough expected to be fully entrenched over the eastern Continental U.S.
By Friday. This has already caused the middle levels to amplify with weak northwest
flow expected over the area today and this should help to get
slightly better lift over the region. That in combination with the
increase in moisture and daytime heating should allow decent afternoon
coverage today.


As we head into the weekend look for a soggy outlook. The middle levels
will continue to amplify with the l/west trough remaining over the eastern
Continental U.S. Through the entire weekend. This will drive a cold front into
the region by Sat morning and this front will stall right over the
County Warning Area late Sat and remain there through Sun night. Ahead of the cold
front on Friday moisture will be ample and with the increasing northwest flow
numerous rain showers and thunderstorms and rain will develop. Northwest flow will then remain over
the region sending multiple impulses across the area and with a
stalled boundary over the County Warning Area rain showers and thunderstorms and rain will have no problem
developing through the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible
but flash flooding parameters dont appear to be lining up. First
upper level divergence is not really in place until late Sun night.
Second moisture will not be anomalous as precipitable waters will remain near 2"
which is only 105-115% of normal. Third...we will be under northwest flow
and even though it will send multiple impulses over the region
developing scattered/num rain showers/thunderstorms and rain the flow will not parallel the surface
boundary which has a better chance of leading to training. /Cab/


Long term...overall the medium range models are in decent agreement
for the first half of the work week.

Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have
made sizable adjustments from what they were showing 24 hours ago but the European model (ecmwf) has had the biggest adjustments. With that confidence is
low in the forecast basically from Wednesday and Onward.
293. I live in Northern Mass, we got a nice swath of rain after midnight until about 10am this morning. It moved off North into NH and ME, so yeah I think they may have some flooding issues. We got something like 3-4 inches of rain, and NE is anything but flat, so streets become rivers with any significant rainfall here.
209 WalkingInTheSun: The Bolivar disaster was horrible. It roiled me at times when the forecasters wait so long to issue warnings for possible evacuations.

The NHC issued very clear "Evacuate or Die" Advisories for the coastal areas surrounding Galveston well before Ike started to cause even the most minor problems.
The problem was ya had a buncha I D I O T local&commercial forecasters who were saying that the NHC was WRONG, and local politicians and business owners who wanted to believe those idiots.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Don't be surprised to see the GFS go more northward.I agree with the Euro at this time in terms of track...Still a ways out though.Did you pick on the joke in post 294?


LOL..I just saw it..the Nogaps is going to make a believer out of yall one day..
lower convergence


upper divergence
....
Quoting Chicklit:


yup lookin good
It's in a moist environment with shear being not much of a problem.Not to mention it all ready has a good structure.Should start to see this ramp up in a couple of days.Looks like a decent chance of recurvature but don't count on this yet as things can change.
174
Quoting AegirsGal:
293. I live in Northern Mass, we got a nice swath of rain after midnight until about 10am this morning. It moved off North into NH and ME, so yeah I think they may have some flooding issues. We got something like 3-4 inches of rain, and NE is anything but flat, so streets become rivers with any significant rainfall here.
thanks for the update, hope the flooding doesnt hurt too many people up there,maine has alot of hills and the low lands are going to get all that water..wish it wasnt STILL raining there but there's a low pressure with this rain, sure thought I saw a spin on the radar....stay safe up there
N
GMZ001-162015-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1045 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012


.SYNOPSIS...ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W ALONG 27N AND ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE N GULF THROUGH MON. TROPICAL WAVE EXITING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY W-NW ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND INTO MEXICO THROUGH LATE SAT. POSSIBLE LOW PRES MAY
FORM ALONG THE WAVE FRI AND SAT.
Quoting hurricanehanna:
when is the tail end of the front coming across the states anticipated to be in the GOM ?


This weekend and into Monday according to TWC.
maybe some of the weather guys here can answer this...any chance this Low over maine goes out to sea abd begets yet another storm headed towards europe in time?..or no......
washingtonian115.......Not all Florida is the Miami, Orlando,Tampa craziness...Many wonderful small towns to see . Micanopy is one of my favorites...This is where Doc Hollywood was filmed with Michael J Fox...Lots of history, and it takes you back 100 years..
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks for the update, hope the flooding doesnt hurt too many people up there,maine has alot of hills and the low lands are going to get all that water..wish it wasnt STILL raining there but there's a low pressure with this rain, sure thought I saw a spin on the radar....stay safe up there
The TV WX folks were saying that anyone east of Worchester, MA were under the gun again tonight as well as the next few days. I am keeping my eyes peeled since I live less than 1/4 mile from the Merrimac River.
Quoting aspectre:
209 WalkingInTheSun: The Bolivar disaster was horrible. It roiled me at times when the forecasters wait so long to issue warnings for possible evacuations.

The NHC issued very clear "Evacuate or Die" Advisories for the coastal areas surrounding Galveston well before Ike started to cause even the most minor problems.
The problem was ya had a buncha I D I O T local&commercial forecasters who were saying that the NHC was WRONG, and local politicians and business owners who wanted to believe those idiots.


The local mets were even saying evacuate. I believe it was the mayor of Galveston who hesitated to react.
180 hours
192 hours--looks like its stalling?
Quoting AegirsGal:
The TV WX folks were saying that anyone east of Worchester, MA were under the gun again tonight as well as the next few days. I am keeping my eyes peeled since I live less than 1/4 mile from the Merrimac River.
ok glad your here..keep the folks updated ok
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
washingtonian115.......Not all Florida is the Miami, Orlando,Tampa craziness...Many wonderful small towns to see . Micanopy is one of my favorites...This is where Doc Hollywood was filmed with Michael J Fox...Lots of history, and it takes you back 100 years..
Lived in Bronson, talk about little towns....
Quoting ncstorm:
180 hours
Mean trough coming through the Mid-west.This will certainly kick this baby out to sea.
228 hours

Will be interesting to see how much Gordon interrupts the flow/changes the high.
240 hours
I f the next Cape Verde storm does not recurve, it will likely become a major hurricane that will have an impact on the Lesser Antilles.jmo
276 hours
240 hrs out and a bend back to the west a strong 1035 mb. Ridge in the Northeastern Atlantic and a strong Trough along the East Coast.

Good afternoon guys...is that an eyewall on gordon microwave?
Pressure seems to have dropped quite a bit...
wow some Bad weather out there, I imagine that strong cold front smashing into these extreme heat waves we have been enduring will create some super thunderstorms huh...44 degree's smashing into 100 degrees...whew...lets be careful about the tornado's etc ok.........
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Classic Cape Verde hurricane being portrayed by the models today.


Not surprising. Grothar and I were discussing that wave coming off the African coast as a potential threat to organize. I rarely hype a wave but this is the 1st one this year that has the classic Cape Verde hurricane signiture.
Well I think NWS overestimated the strength of this trough again for us. Going all the way back to May this is what EVERY single front that has went through has done this... Poof! This one is no different.



big picture just a little over a half hour old
288 hours
337. ryang
Quoting hydrus:
I f the next Cape Verde storm does not recurve, it will likely become a major hurricane that will have an impact on the Lesser Antilles.


Why do you say that?
Wow! Newfoundland watch out. The Northeast would get some nice wave action for the surfers if this pans out.

One thing to note is how strong the models are showing troughs this early...Please be a sign of a cold fall/winter.If memory serves me correctly the last time I seen troughs that strong were 2010? or 2009?.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1133 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1130 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SECOR...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF EUREKA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. PEA SIZE HAIL IS
ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FLANAGAN AROUND 1145 AM CDT.

I-55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 188 AND 197.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN CHICAGO.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.



LAT...LON 4075 8894 4089 8893 4088 8858 4075 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 275DEG 43KT 4079 8903
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

312 hours
Quoting UWalkTheMall:

Thank you Jed. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens. :)


no problem!
Quoting washingtonian115:
One thing to note is how strong the models are showing troughs this early...Please be a sign of a cold fall/winter.If memory serves me correctly the last time I seen troughs that strong were 2010? or 2009?.
sure hope they cool things down a bit huh
See ya!

This very deep trough is impressive for Mid-August.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


big picture just a little over a half hour old

Thanks for that one Keeper.
It seems that Gordon almost did an hairpin turn in the middle of the Atlantic on that chart.
.............................wow just look at all that rain..and this has been going on since early this morning that I know of..might have been going all night long...gee
Quoting hydrus:
This very deep trough is impressive for Mid-August.


Probably won't materialize that strong.. Though could still most likely recurve the next storm. It's all about timing.
266 TropicalAnalystwx13: That's none of your business, lol. I'm on my lunch break.

There, fixed that for ya.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT.

* AT 1136 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FLANAGAN TO EL PASO TO SECOR...
AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRIDLEY...LEXINGTON...CHENOA...KAPPA...LAKE BLOOMINGTON AND WESTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.



LAT...LON 4092 8892 4076 8892 4076 8859 4076 8858
4063 8857 4062 8860 4067 8922 4077 8905
4093 8904 4093 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 265DEG 36KT 4089 8892 4078 8892
4069 8911
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN



GOETSCH
Quoting ncstorm:
312 hours
Helene the terrible like her brother Ivan? If this storms shifts anymore to the west it runs smack dab into land. Igor took a similar track.
this was the 00z UKmet run-last frame


2012 Mississippi River Low Flow Information


This page is to give users information on the current low water or low flow situation on the Mississippi River. The river is nearing historically low levels as a drought across the central United States has limited the water making it into the basin. This has caused many problems along the river, including stranding ships that cannot navigate the low water levels and causing salt water intrustion from the Gulf of Mexico. The saltwater intrusion itself can cause many additional problems, including limiting the water supply to the residents of Southeast Louisiana.

Mississippi River at Red Landing Stage Hydrograph

Quoting ncstorm:
I have no problems with people posting about Florida..I dont know why we have to police the blog in telling people what they can or shouldnt post..its weather..



Thank you!

If anyone here is a problem with me or other bloggers posting about afternoon thunderstorms in Florida on a regular basis, I ask, why?
It seems some of you would rather talk about how evil liberals are, or how evil business owners hoard too much profit, or how oil is too expensive etc. but get mad at individuals who have a passion for weather. Well you know you'd be right if this was a political/national issues blog but it's not. Last I checked it was a blog designed for weather enthusiasts...

With that said, if my passion for weather is greater than some here should those who have less of one criticize me for it? I think not, or hope not anyway. Please, if you don't like my in depth analysis of local weather then you can just leave if you really hate weather posts so much ;)

BTW, ncstorm, I don't care if you post about thunderstorms in North Carolina just as much. In fact I like hearing other people discuss their local weather, it doesn't take a severe thunderstorm to get me excited at all, in fact in only takes a simple storm, that's just how I am made.


It is said that to err is to be human, however I think that one could also argue that "to criticize is to be human" effectively.
GFS is overdoing these troughs.. EURO should have a more reasonable run.


Not bad, convection continues to be well organized with spiral banding becoming more prominent. Yea, I could now see this becoming a brief Category 1 hurricane.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Well I think NWS overestimated the strength of this trough again for us. Going all the way back to May this is what EVERY single front that has went through has done this... Poof! This one is no different.blockquote> Figured you were going to get something from that, just north of us, saw a nice outflow from the Spfld storm come at us. Maybe we'll both get something when the actual front comes through.
Quoting hydrus:
I f the next Cape Verde storm does not recurve, it will likely become a major hurricane that will have an impact on the Lesser Antilles.jmo
Tropical Wave passing by the Lesser Antilles in 6 days. The way the GFS is spitting out storms now makes me wonder if El Nino will actually shut this season down or if it will compare to the '69, '04 season where we saw activity last until November and December respectively.
Seasonal and reasonable..


Overdoing and not likely


The EUROs trough is weaker, still recurves the storm but is at a more reasonable strength. The GFS is really overdoing the strength of the troughs. It's all about timing as well.
Thanks for the link Patrap. Offers good perspective on the situation; been curious about such data this morning... makin' it easy for me :)
a lot of conjecture and speculation on the blog today.concerning the potential of the two pouches coming off of africa. there is very good model support for development, but there must be cuation about the track of these systems so far out in time.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Check #187. 1860-1869 didn't have a major. 3285days approx with out a major.

Saffir and Simpson can define what a category 3 is but they don't get to define what a major TC is. Using cat 3 as equivalent to major is not good since the worst destruction done by TC's is not determined solely by wind speed. (Not by a long shot.) The NHC took out mention of storm surge size from the Saffir Simpson text. They should take out the word major as well.
Quoting floridaboy14:
GFS and ECMWF always had a poleward bias when showing STRONG storms forming east. an example of this is hurricane Ivan. they had it turning east of 55W east of 60W east of 70W. it turned out he turned RIGHT INTO ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. once we get something, it will be up to the ridges and troughs showing the possible scenarios


Correct, they often do have a poleward bias.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think the Rita "fiasco" made some in the Galveston bay area feel differently about Ike's approach. Also remember by that time that a lot of the media "hype" had turned to blaming NOLA's unique geography, a bowl-shaped city, as the cause of the many negative impacts of Katrina. There was extensive downplaying or overlooking of the storm surge impacts on the MS coast, which is what Galveston Bay residents SHOULD have been thinking about.

But hindsight is 20/20....


Yeah, sometimes I forget that most of my native Houstonian and Galveston friends have not read the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 history as I have. King Vidor, film director was witness to that storm and said being on Galveston Island at that time was like living in a fish bowl with the Galveston Bay and the GOMEX coming over the top from all sides.
I agree with Dr. Masters - keep this a tropics blog about weather. Remember when talking about the weather was such a safe, noncontroversial topic? You young guys may not go that far back, but there was a time when you could always talk about the weather if you were just trying to make conversation.

If we can get some 500mb height rises along the East Coast at the right time, us hurricane lovers (nuts?) may see one or two hits before the season is done, according to a meteorologist I've been following. He thinks it will happen in a couple of weeks. Time will tell.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Thank you!

If anyone here is a problem with me or other bloggers posting about afternoon thunderstorms in Florida on a regular basis, I ask, why?
It seems some of you would rather talk about how evil liberals are, or how evil business owners hoard too much profit, or how oil is too expensive etc. but get mad at individuals who have a passion for weather. Well you know you'd be right if this was a political/national issues blog but it's not. Last I checked it was a blog designed for weather enthusiasts...

With that said, if my passion for weather is greater than some here should those who have less of one criticize me for it? I think not, or hope not anyway. Please, if you don't like my in depth analysis of local weather then you can just leave if you really hate weather posts so much ;)

BTW, ncstorm, I don't care if you post about thunderstorms in North Carolina just as much. In fact I like hearing other people discuss their local weather, it doesn't take a severe thunderstorm to get me excited at all, in fact in only takes a simple storm, that's just how I am made.


It is said that to err is to be human, however I think that one could also argue that "to criticize is to be human" effectively.


Thing is, someone in MD or NY isn't gonna give 2 shakes about a DAILY OCCURANCE 1000 miles away. It's not a large scale system that will effect anyone else. I get tired of seeing radar of piddly little rain showers 25 miles away from (bloggers) house on the daily... imagine if everyone did that, and tell me it doesn't matter.
Quoting keisa90:


The local mets were even saying evacuate. I believe it was the mayor of Galveston who hesitated to react.

We deal with evacuation every time there is a storm in heading toward the keys. They evacuate the tourists first and of course the businesses and city fathers fight it. They don't want to scare off business for a false alarm. Unfortunately, timing is everything and we would rather be safe than sorry. Many a time after kicking the tourists out of town, the storm veers off. Hey, maybe I have discovered the hurricane magnet. Tourists!
Back at last... took longer than I thought...
Quoting kwgirl:

We deal with evacuation every time there is a storm in heading toward the keys. They evacuate the tourists first and of course the businesses and city fathers fight it. They don't want to scare off business for a false alarm. Unfortunately, timing is everything and we would rather be safe than sorry. Many a time after kicking the tourists out of town, the storm veers off. Hey, maybe I have discovered the hurrircane magnet. Tourists!


I forget the year want to say the 30's but there was a large hurricane that hit the keys when many former military and out of work citizens were working on the r/r project. They were living in tents. The project manager pleading with his supiors to evavcuate the men but got the OK too late. A train from Miami came down, evaced citizens and the men just to get broad sided by the storm surge as they headed north. I think evacuations from that area took a whole new meaning after that. Saw this on History Channel.
BTW, we had a nice little shower burst while I was out... excellent example of convectional rain caused by orthographic lift... lol ... severe downburst on the south side of the hill... no rain whatsoever on the north side...
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's in a moist environment with shear being not much of a problem.Not to mention it all ready has a good structure.Should start to see this ramp up in a couple of days.Looks like a decent chance of recurvature but don't count on this yet as things can change.
Sure won't be curving off well before 55W like Gordon...



Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
washingtonian115.......Not all Florida is the Miami, Orlando,Tampa craziness...Many wonderful small towns to see . Micanopy is one of my favorites...This is where Doc Hollywood was filmed with Michael J Fox...Lots of history, and it takes you back 100 years..
Hey! some of us like the Miami, Orlando, Tampa craziness... lol

Quoting keisa90:


The local mets were even saying evacuate. I believe it was the mayor of Galveston who hesitated to react.
Think I vaguely recall this; the mayor was a woman?
look.south.for.threats..nothing.to.oct?.
Quoting Msdrown:


I forget the year want to say the 30's but there was a large hurricane that hit the keys when many former military and out of work citizens were working on the r/r project. They were living in tents. The project manager pleading with his supiors to evavcuate the men but got the OK too late. A train from Miami came down, evaced citizens and the men just to get broad sided by the storm surge as they headed north. I think evacuations from that area took a whole new meaning after that. Saw this on History Channel.
1935 Keys Hurricane. Lots and lots of internet stuff on this out there... worst storm pressure-wise ever to hit the US...
Quoting ncstorm:


Okay great..glad to hear Texas is doing that..NC should follow suit..


I completely disagree, no one should ever be removed from their personal property for any reason. However, they should be told that if they choose to stay agianst the evacuation order there will be no city services including rescue offered to them. No rescuer should ever risk their life for someone that had fair warning, but no one should ever be removed by force from their property.
30km FIM Precipitable Water: