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The odds of a hurricane spoiling the Republican National Convention in Tampa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

On September 25, 1848, the Great Gale of 1848, the most violent hurricane in Tampa's history, roared ashore as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 - 135 mph winds. Major R. D. S. Wade weathered the storm in Fort Brooke, in what is now downtown Tampa. Here is what he wrote this to his commanding officer in Washington D.C.: "The waters rose to an unprecedented height, and the waves swept away the wharves and all the buildings that were near the Bay or river." A 15-foot storm surge was observed at Fort Brooke, and the peninsula where St. Petersburg lies in Pinellas County was inundated "at the waist" and "the bays met," making St. Petersburg an island. After the hurricane, "Tampa was a scene of devastation. Magnificent old oaks were toppled by the hurricane's winds. At Fort Brooke the barracks, horse shed, and other structures were gone. The pine forest north of the garrison was filled with wreckage and debris. The hurricane's powerful surge had shifted sand all along the coast and reshaped many of the keys near Tampa Bay. Navigation routes were filled in and closed, making charts of the area produced before 1848 almost useless after the hurricane. In terms of intensity and destruction, the 1848 storm remains perhaps the greatest in Tampa's history" (Barnes, 1999.)


Figure 1. Pencil sketch of the Captains' Quarters, drawn by one of the officers stationed at Fort Brooke in 1845. Fort Brooke was one of the largest military establishments in the United States at the time. Image Credit: The Tampa Bay History Center.

Fort Brooke today
Fort Brooke is the current site of the Tampa Bay Convention Center, which hosts the Republican National Convention on August 27 - 30 this year. The convention center is in Evacuation Zone A, which is evacuated for Category 1 hurricanes. The Tampa Bay Times Forum and two major convention hotels--the Tampa Marriott Waterside and the Embassy Suites--are in Evacuation Zone B, which is evacuated for Category 2 hurricanes. In a worst-case Category 4 hurricane, the Convention Center could be immersed in 20 feet of water. Clearly, even a Category 1 hurricane would be enough to spoil the convention. So, what are the odds of a mass evacuation order being issued for Tampa Bay during the convention?


Figure 2. Predicted height above ground of the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region, as computed using NOAA's SLOSH storm surge model. The Tampa Bay convention center would go under 20 feet of water, and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.


Figure 3. Perhaps the most spectacular hurricane image ever captured: view of Hurricane Elena on September 1, 1985, as seen from the Space Shuttle Discovery. At the time, Elena was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, located just 80 miles offshore from Tampa Bay, Florida. The hurricane prompted the largest mass evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Two mass evacuations in Tampa in the past 25 years
Two hurricanes have prompted mass evacuations of more than 300,000 people from the Tampa Bay area over the past 25 years. The first was Hurricane Elena of 1985, a Category 3 hurricane that stalled 80 miles offshore for two days on Labor Day weekend, bringing a 6 - 7 foot storm surge, wind gusts of 80 mph, and torrential rains. On August 13, 2004, another mass evacuation was ordered for Hurricane Charley. Thanks to a late track shift, Charley missed Tampa Bay, and instead hit well to the south in Port Charlotte as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. More limited evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile homes in the 4-county Tampa Bay region were ordered for three other hurricanes in the past fifteen years--Hurricane Georges of 1998, Hurricane Frances of 2004, and Hurricane Jeanne of 2004. Other historical storms which would likely trigger mass evacuations were they occur today include:

The 1921 hurricane. One of only two major hurricanes to hit Tampa, this Category 3 storm brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet.

Hurricane Easy of 1950. The hurricane parked itself over the west coast of Florida, drenching residents with record-breaking rains, and brought a 6.5 ft storm surge to Tampa Bay.


Figure 4. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 5. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm tide of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay.


Figure 6. A near miss: just a slight deviation in the path of Hurricane Charley of 2004 would have brought the Category 4 hurricane into Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.

The hurricane forecast for the Republican National Convention
Given that there have been two mass evacuations of Tampa during the past 25 years during the peak three-month period of hurricane season--August, September, and October--history suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%. Any tropical waves which might develop into hurricanes that could hit Tampa during the convention would have to come off the coast of Africa next week. Looking at the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS, all of the tropical waves coming off of Africa next week are predicted to exit too far north to make the long crossing of the Atlantic and threaten the Gulf Coast. While something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico from the remains of an old cold front, it is rare for such storms to grow strong enough to deserve mass evacuations. So far, early signs point to a hurricane-free Republican National Convention at the end of August.

References
Barnes, J., 1999, Florida’s Hurricane History. The University of North Carolina Press.

Weisberg, R.H, and L. Zheng, 2006, "Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay", Estuaries and Coasts Vol 29, No. 6A, pp 899-913.

History of Pasco County: The 1921 Hurricane

The 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region

The Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan for a Category 5 $250 billion hurricane

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dry air seems to be the name of the game this year in the Atlantic, huh.
I just noticed this blog entry so I thought I'd read a bit and add my thoughts...
#822 ends with this, "But oddly enough, in spite of the risk over the years, no major presidential year nominating convention has so far ever been canceled or directly impacted by a tropical cyclone, to my knowledge, in spite of the fact that they always happen during hurricane season."

Could the reason be that there's already enough Hot Air and already to many Blow Hards in town that any self respecting Hurricane wouldn't dare attempt to upstage a convention?
Very Possibly!
1003. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i was sayin good nite to kman and pottery gro
iam here for awhile yet
waiting on next full disk
and the two



Sorry. I thought at your age you need additional rest. You haven't been posting much. Have any good color shots of the feature currently over Africa. No black and white please. Reminds me too much of the Twilight Zone.
Quoting Grothar:


Angela, I hope you don't mind a personal question. Do you speak German?


I took three years in high school and then promptly forgot it all. Some people have a brain for second (and third, fourth...) languages. I definitely do not.
Quoting angelafritz:


I took three years in high school and then promptly forgot it all. Some people have a brain for second (and third, fourth...) languages. I definitely do not.


Angela what are your thoughts on the possible Gulf of Mexico development..if any??
1006. Grothar
Quoting angelafritz:
Dry air seems to be the name of the game this year in the Atlantic, huh.


Is there any scientific cause of the unusual dry air in the Atlantic this year? It really has not been addressed anywhere.
1007. Grothar
Quoting sunlinepr:


Some really cold cloud tops with that!
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


Angela what are your thoughts on the possible Gulf of Mexico development..if any??


Slim to none, it seems.
What's your prognostication Angela on the remainder of the season? Dry air going to be an inhibitor for the foreseeable future or will it break giving more southern waves off of Africa a chance to be long track monsters?
Slim to none? So just crush my prognostication from earlier, thanks Angela. No really, now I won't repeat it anymore. :)
Quoting Grothar:


Some really cold cloud tops with that!

Looks beautiful.... lets see when it reaches the water....
Well, since SAL is a party pooper this hurricane season I figure I post a link for the 2012 - 2013 winter outlook. It seems that this will be a cold one for the southeast, so expect food prices to go up due to failed crops if this pans out. And we are in trouble already because of the drought.

Link
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry. I thought at your age you need additional rest. You haven't been posting much. Have any good color shots of the feature currently over Africa. No black and white please. Reminds me too much of the Twilight Zone.


has not been much to post about
unless you want some colour images of dry air


new full disk
is in
about 20 mins or so
Quoting Tribucanes:
What's your prognostication Angela on the remainder of the season? Dry air going to be an inhibitor for the foreseeable future or will it break giving more southern waves off of Africa a chance to be long track monsters?

Not Angela but rest of season should be dead with all the factors weighed in with el nino
I haven't seen any discussion this year on the dry air, beyond the fact that it's been mitigating wave development. There are papers out there that link African drought to fewer hurricanes, but it's a chicken or egg problem. Are there fewer hurricanes because of the drought? Or is there a drought because there are fewer rainy waves?
Hi Angela:

I imagine that you have as an Atmospheric Scientist many research, forecasting tools available that we the ordinary user do not have access to....

What's your pasion as a scientist and what tools do you use?

It's my curiosity...
I loved my winter in SC Wisconsin last year. Warmest ever with almost record low snowfall. We received less than 40 inches of snow, which was living the dream up here. Prior three years to that, we got buried. Over 100 inches two seasons ago. Had to dig out from a couple monster blizzards. One left a nine foot high by twenty yard drift that blocked the highway I live on. Farm vehicles that remove the huge drifts wouldn't touch it. Two looked at it and left. I had to shovel it off. Been out in the middle of multiple blizzards here though, quite the amazing experience.
Quoting angelafritz:


I took three years in high school and then promptly forgot it all. Some people have a brain for second (and third, fourth...) languages. I definitely do not.


I'm with you Angela. I took two years of Spanish, then forgot 95% of it lol
Won't be too long before we can start talking about TD 8. Despite the waning convection which probably has to do with DMIN, 93L still has a very nice structure.

Great to have you here Angela. When Jeff or you come on it's fun to get a perspective from the experts. When either of you comes on it also seems to boost the energy and happiness of the blog too. Thanks.
Quoting Tribucanes:
I loved my winter in SC Wisconsin last year. Warmest ever with almost record low snowfall. We received less than 40 inches of snow, which was living the dream up here. Prior three years to that, we got buried. Over 100 inches two seasons ago. Had to dig out from a couple monster blizzards. One left a nine foot high by twenty yard drift that blocked the highway I live on. Farm vehicles that remove the huge drifts wouldn't touch it. Two looked at it and left. I had to shovel it off. Been out in the middle of multiple blizzards here though, quite the amazing experience.


There's a good chance to have a 2009 repeat this year. 1972 - 1973 is a good analog to what is going on this year. Moderate to strong el niño preceded by two la niña. I guess we are about to see. Last winter was awesome for my tropical plant collection. I even got to grow two avocado trees to be strong enough to be planted. If this winter is warm enough they might make it to the point in which i will have homegrown avocados in Mississippi.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Hi Angela:

I imagine that you have as an Atmospheric Scientist many research, forecasting tools available that we the ordinary user do not have access to....

What's your pasion as a scientist and what tools do you use?

It's my curiosity...


Actually I get this question a lot and my tools are the same as your tools.

Coming to Wunderground I started to use Wundermap more. It's especially nice for tracking global TCs. Plus we have 10 days of the ECMWF deterministic run there, which you can't get anywhere else.

My other most-used sources of info are:
NESDIS
CIMSS
FSU Multi Model
FSU Cyclone Phase Evolution

And of course NHC. I have about 50 tropical bookmarks but I never use them all on one day.

And someone here introduced me to the LSU Earthscan Lab. They have some pretty nice animations.

There is very little information that I have access to that's proprietary. I do still have access to research journals through my alma mater, which is nice when I need to look up a paper.

It's all about finding the things you need in a form that you like. Data is data.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Won't be too long before we can start talking about TD 8. Despite the waning convection which probably has to do with DMIN, 93L still has a very nice structure.



much to do about nothing
worry for shipping
maybe azores
other than that not much
gale centre maybe
some rain
Totally agree Canehunter. Would not be surprised to be back between 60-80 inches of snow this year here north of Madison. If this projects, tornado season will be back with a fury next year and flooding too. I'd much rather have a record warm winter again and not have a near record tornado season next year.
Quoting angelafritz:


Actually I get this question a lot and my tools are the same as your tools.


Thanks...
Angela do you have any new information about the blog crossover and whether it's still happening?
Quoting Tribucanes:
Angela do you have any new information about the blog crossover and whether it's still happening?


Jeff's blog on TWC? Yep. They're working on getting the blog on weather.com soon. We're all looking forward to it!

Things here will remain the same, though, of course. :)
12z Experimental FIM at 168 hrs. 850 mb. wind:

Quoting Tribucanes:
Totally agree Canehunter. Would not be surprised to be back between 60-80 inches of snow this year here north of Madison. If this projects, tornado season will be back with a fury next year and flooding too. I'd much rather have a record warm winter again and not have a near record tornado season next year.


Let's hope not. I drove tru a town that was leveled by an F4 a year before and it look like if I went to a city dump. The devastation caused by tornadoes is horrible and I can only hope that we do not have an active 2013 season.
That's so awesome, thanks for the update.
Alright guys, keep it real. I'm out.
angela... it seems that dry air has been the name of the game for like 3 years now... what gives?
1034. Grothar
Quoting angelafritz:


Jeff's blog on TWC? Yep. They're working on getting the blog on weather.com soon. We're all looking forward to it!

Things here will remain the same, though, of course. :)


I've been waiting for some of the staff to do a blog on the NAO and its possible affect on this season's storms and its correlation to El Nino. It would be a good study. I have always thought there is much more of a causal relationship than is currently believed. If you could mention it, they might be interested.
00z GFS at 114 hrs. 500 mb heights PMSL:

Quoting GTcooliebai:
12z Experimental FIM at 168 hrs. 850 mb. wind:



Well, that's interesting! FIM. Isn't that a new model or one that is being tested or something? How accurate is it? GFS looks pretty boring, but it does show some development in the GOMEX 126 Hrs in the 18Z Run.

I'm still feeling something wanting to form in the Gulf in the next week, with a ULL/MLL forming in the next 24/60hrs. over the central Gulf. As far as I know though, these feelings have yet to ever be right. :)
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Well, that's interesting! FIM. Isn't that a new model or one that is being tested or something? How accurate is it? GFS looks pretty boring, but it does show some development in the GOMEX 126 Hrs in the 18Z Run.

I've been hearing on here that it's suppose to replace the GFS in the future. And it did fairly well with tracking Ernesto.
damn :(
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I've been hearing on here that it's suppose to replace the GFS in the future. And it did fairly well with tracking Ernesto.


I hope the replacement is for the better. GFS is one of the models I trust the most. Of course I don't only rely on it, but I do look at it first. Is there a link to FIM?
Quoting Dragod66:
angela... it seems that dry air has been the name of the game for like 3 years now... what gives?


It wasn't the name of the game in 2009 or 2010.
Link
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


I hope the replacement is for the better. GFS is one of the models I trust the most. Of course I don't only rely on it, but I do look at it first. Is there a link to FIM?
Quoting Tribucanes:
I'm still feeling something wanting to form in the Gulf in the next week, with a ULL/MLL forming in the next 24/60hrs. over the central Gulf. As far as I know though, these feelings have yet to ever be right. :)


Watch the GOMEx....but not until this weekend into next week.

Stalled frontal boundary.
Northern Hemispheric IR anim image 9 mins old

93L - Gordon

African storm - Helene

Possible GOMEX storm - Isaac
What's your outlook on things Kori? Hope your well.
FIM 114 HRS

GFS 114 HRS
Northern Hemispheric ENHANCED WV anim image

11 mins old

Quoting KoritheMan:


It wasn't the name of the game in 2009 or 2010.


ok but i mean what killed the 2009 season then?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Link


Awesome link. Thank you.
Quoting Tribucanes:
What's your outlook on things Kori? Hope your well.


Things will get cracking soon, especially if the current trend toward a Modiki El Nino continues. But even if not, and even with the usual recurve pattern in place, it would be haphazard and misinformed to give up on the season now.

We may only see one or two majors, but they will come.
Quoting Dragod66:


ok but i mean what killed the 2009 season then?


Vertical shear did. Look at those warm anomalies during peak season. No surprise there.

And 2010 just seemed innocuous because 70% of the storms stayed at sea.
1053. TXCWC
0Z GFS day 7

Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Awesome link. Thank you.
Yes it is, you're very welcome.


vs





Yeah... 2012 isn't a Modoki El Nino. Saying that does give the wishcasters some hope though.
1056. TXCWC
180hr GFS UHHHOHHH...down below 1000mb...moderate TC shown here...enough time to reach strong TC/Hurricane?

Only one or two majors, interesting. Still thinking we'll see our first major before August is out and will see 2/3 more in September. Thinking we'll still see 3/4 majors, but Kori you have the insight of doing this longer than I. And without a doubt, more knowledge usually leads to more accurate assessments. Any desire to work your way up to management at Walmart Kori and put off your education for a few years during these lean times for jobs?
El Nino will be declared sooner rather than later.



This color-enhanced view of NASA's Curiosity rover on the surface of Mars was taken by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter as the satellite flew overhead. Image credit: NASNASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona



PASADENA, Calif. -- The first color image taken from orbit showing NASA's rover Curiosity on Mars includes details of the layered bedrock on the floor of Gale Crater that the rover is beginning to investigate.

Operators of the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter added the color view to earlier observations of Curiosity descending on its parachute, and one day after landing.

"The rover appears as double bright spot plus shadows from this perspective, looking at its shadowed side, set in the middle of the blast pattern from the descent stage," said HiRISE Principal Investigator Alfred McEwen, of the University of Arizona, Tucson. "This image was acquired from an angle looking 30 degrees westward of straight down. We plan to get one in a few days looking more directly down, showing the rover in more detail and completing a stereo pair."

Meanwhile, Curiosity has finished a four-day process transitioning both of its redundant main computers to flight software for driving and using tools on the rover's arm. During the latter part of the Mars Science Laboratory spacecraft's 36-week flight to Mars and its complicated descent to deliver Curiosity to the Martian surface on Aug. 5, PDT (Aug. 6, EDT and Universal Time), the rover's computers used a version of flight software with many capabilities no longer needed. The new version expands capabilities for work the rover will do now that it is on Mars.

"We have successfully completed the brain transplant," said Curiosity Mission Manager Mike Watkins of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. "Now we are moving on to a new phase of functional checkouts of the science instruments and preparations for a short test drive.

Link
Quoting Altestic2012:


vs





Yeah... 2012 isn't a Modoki El Nino. Saying that does give the wishcasters some hope though.


I didn't say there was an extreme trend toward a Modiki. But the latest ENSO region SST anomalies graph (shown below) indicates a notable warming of the Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 regions. Nino 1 and 2 have declined, while Nino 3 has remained about the same.



Again, this may not herald anything. More than likely it's just a temporary fluctuation. But in the event it's not...

Besides, why would I want to wishcast? Nature doesn't kiss my ass.
Quoting Altestic2012:


vs





Yeah... 2012 isn't a Modoki El Nino. Saying that does give the wishcasters some hope though.


Can you post maps comparing 2008 and 2012?

This current season more mimics the Modiki of 2008 than 2004.

Here's why. View this link

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/0907 02140835.htm
Quoting Tribucanes:
Only one or two majors, interesting. Still thinking we'll see our first major before August is out and will see 2/3 more in September. Thinking we'll still see 3/4 majors, but Kori you have the insight of doing this longer than I. And without a doubt, more knowledge usually leads to more accurate assessments. Any desire to work your way up to management at Walmart Kori and put off your education for a few years during these lean times for jobs?


Walmart is the means to an end. Nothing more, nothing less. It is going to support my education in some fashion or another. They offer some pretty decent scholarships (though I am unsure if they are state or national) to their associates. But yes, I tolerate enough **** at work, so I may as well work my way up. I'm finally taking the department manager test tomorrow. Then it's off to speak to the store manager and see where to go from there.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Vertical shear did. Look at those warm anomalies during peak season. No surprise there.

And 2010 just seemed innocuous because 70% of the storms stayed at sea.


Compare those ONI values, 2006 that was a Nino season with current 2012 values...

Almost similar....
Why in the hell have I been banned from weather chat? lol a million trolls there this week, I have said NOTHING bad there at all and I am banned. I am so confused right now. :)
Quoting sunlinepr:


Compare those ONI values, 2006 that was a Nino season with current 2012 values...

Almost similar....


Kinda eerie, eh?
Modoki El Nino's give the Atlantic life (e.g. 2004) because the cool pools and thus shear-inducing troughs and ULLS form in the EPAC, not the CPAC between 120W through Hawaii to about 150W. By the time these make it eastward into the Atlantic they're too weak to disrupt the Atlantic too much. But this year is a conventional El Nino with below-average SSTs in the EPAC hardly existent, the only thing helping stave off El Nino for the moment is the negative (cool) PDO that has been in place since the 2007 La Nina (characterized by the well below average SSTs off the U.S. and Canadian west coasts and South Alaska).
Wow banned from weather chat and I have done nothing. WTH is going on here?
Quoting MississippiWx:
El Nino will be declared sooner rather than later.



More Central Pacific warming trend....Modiki El Nino.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Can you post maps comparing 2008 and 2012?

This current season more mimics the Modiki of 2008 than 2004.

Here's why. View this link

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/0907 02140835.htm

Huh? 2008 was a weak La Nina.

2009 was a conventional El Nino, as was 2006. Modoki's are pretty darn rare. I think 1932 was another example, but I'm not sure.

As it makes landfall 00z GFS 183 Hrs
Quoting TXCWC:
180hr GFS UHHHOHHH...down below 1000mb...moderate TC shown here...enough time to reach strong TC/Hurricane?



I really really hope not! Texas' longest period without a hurricane landfall was 10 years. It's been 4 now. A run at the record would be nice.
Hope someone didn't troll me in weather chat and get me banned. Sigh.
1073. TXCWC
High builds in north of it on this run - landfall around TX/MEX border as a 50mph-60mph storm - alot of rain for deep south TX
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow banned from weather chat and I have done nothing. WTH is going on here?

There is a hacker in there telling people their ip addresses... i left!!
Quoting TXCWC:
High builds in north of it on this run - landfall around TX/MEX border as a 60mph storm - alot of rain for deep south TX


Can you please give me the link for this? I have been looking for a map like this but can't. Thanks
Wow, something wrong with world today xtreme. They got me banned from the room apparently. Operation get a life in full effect for whomever that loser is.
Quoting TXCWC:
High builds in north of it on this run - landfall around TX/MEX border as a 60mph storm - alot of rain for deep south TX

I'D call that 70-75


There's your full-fledged Modoki... notice although the eastern EPAC is above average, there's cool pools, and even without the cool pools the warm water line is pretty weak until you get to Nino 3.4 and 4, where the waters are solidly above average for a long stretch. There's your Modoki.



Here's your anti-Modoki... arguably the greatest El Nino in recorded history. The water is actually pretty cool in the Nino 4 region, a little above average in the 3.4, and the famous flaming-hot saber in the Nino's 1-3.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

As it makes landfall 00z GFS 183 Hrs


And it sits there a while

Quoting KoritheMan:


Kinda eerie, eh?


The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was significantly less active than the record previous season. It marked the first since 2001 in which no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, and was the first since 1994 that no tropical cyclones formed during October.[1] Following the intense activity of 2005, forecasters predicted that the 2006 season would be only slightly less active. Instead a rapidly forming moderate El Niño event in 2006, activity was slowed by the presence of the Saharan Air Layer over the tropical Atlantic and the steady presence of a robust secondary high pressure area to the Azores high centered around Bermuda. There were no tropical cyclones after October....

Quoting Tribucanes:
Hope someone didn't troll me in weather chat and get me banned. Sigh.
maybe something going on i tried to go to chat and iam banned as well the trolls may have had it shut down for a bit don't get to worried at the moment
Quoting KoritheMan:


Kinda eerie, eh?


2006 is probably the best recent analog. It has been a long time since we have had a strongly negative PDO, a warm AMO and an El Nino. We are just now getting into a pattern where cold PDOs will be more prevalent. 2006 had a very weakly negative PDO, as well as similar anomalies in the Atlantic and Nino regions. It is difficult to sniff out what to expect with all of these variables that come into play. We would have to go back to the 50s to probably sniff out the best analogs for this season.

2012


2006
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


And it sits there a while

undefined

looks like it moves slowly westward then gets shunted southwest by that High pressure
WU really needs to get a hold of their blog site. Too many bad things happening with the trolls posting porn, perpetrating as others, apparently getting real members in trouble, and just generally being idiot jerks causing ruckus. Hope they find the cash for moderators and get a handle on these fools sooner than later.
Thanks for that update Keeper, that rings of the truth.
Quoting Tribucanes:
WU really needs to get a hold of their blog site. Too many bad things happening with the trolls posting porn, perpetrating as others, apparently getting real members in trouble, and just generally being idiot jerks causing ruckus. Hope they find the cash for moderators and get a handle on these fools sooner than later.


Im sure there are many upstanding members of this blog who would volunteer as a moderator....and perform that duty without bias!!
WU takes the time to get the truth and get it right when dealing with the troll community. Can't wait till they can almost instantly zap em'.
Quoting MississippiWx:


2006 is probably the best recent analog. It has been a long time since we have had a strongly negative PDO, a warm AMO and an El Nino. We are just now getting into a pattern where cold PDOs will be more prevalent. 2006 had a very weakly negative PDO, as well as similar anomalies in the Atlantic and Nino regions. It is difficult to sniff out what to expect with all of these variables that come into play. We would have to go back to the 50s to probably sniff out the best analogs for this season.

2012


2006

PDO's aren't a year-to-year thing like ENSO. PDO's last about 30-40 years. 2005 might have been the transitional year, it's tough to say because we headed right into an El Nino the year after. In that case it is reasonable to assume that 1933 (not coincidentally the last hyperactive hurricane season before 2005) was the last year we began the transition into the last cold PDO.

As the PDOs continue to be cool, El Ninos will be less frequent, Al Gore's theory will die and people will go back to complaining that we're causing global freezing and bringing us back into an ige age. :-)
Goodnight all, keep on keeping on Kori.
1091. TXCWC
Quoting SouthCentralTx:


Can you please give me the link for this? I have been looking for a map like this but can't. Thanks


Sure not sure if you wanted the entire sight but here you go...Link ...GFS is under Operational Models on right of pg. Once you click on op run you want to look at (ie 0Z, ect...) you can scroll dwn to Day 1-5 precip, ect... to look at various 5 day precip totals...hope that helps :)
Goodnight all!!
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

looks like it moves slowly westward then gets shunted southwest by that High pressure


With slight variations the GFS has been on this scenario for days. I wonder if the other models will come on board or continue to differ. What I haven't read is that the GFS is suffering feedback issues like before Debby. lol. What little that's been said about it is cautiously keeping an eye on things. :)
Quoting TXCWC:


Sure not sure if you wanted the entire sight but here you go...Link ...GFS is under Operational Models on right of pg. Once you click on op run you want to look at (ie 0Z, ect...) you can scroll dwn to Day 1-5 precip, ect... to look at various 5 day precip totals...hope that helps :)


Yes that helps alot, i'll have to bookmark it, thanks!
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Goodnight all!!


Night neighbor. :)
Btw, the latest update from CPC has Nino 3.4 at 0.8C. Should easily top 1.0C by the end of the month, just from judging the anomalies.

Edit: Australian BOM has Nino 3.4 at 0.9C, up 0.2C from their last update 2 weeks ago.

Anyway, I'm out. Goodnight, all.
What happens with the tropics chat?
Quoting Altestic2012:
Tribucanes...stop whining about trolls, or get ignored. We're talking about ENSO right now. :-) Not GW.....


This coming from the guy who just posted: As the PDOs continue to be cool, El Ninos will be less frequent, Al Gore's theory will die and people will go back to complaining that we're causing global freezing and bringing us back into an ige age. :-)

Not trying to be insulting, just pointing something out.

1100. JLPR2
Hmm from what I read and saw from a old entry from Dr. Masters. 1991, 1994, 2002 and 2004 were Modiki El NIño years or as he refers to them: CPW(Central Pacific warming) years.

If our new trend holds and the eastern pacific area region: 1+2 continues to cool we could get one of these rare Modikis.



The entry is from 2009 if anyone wants to give it a look.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


With slight variations the GFS has been on this scenario for days. I wonder if the other models will come on board or continue to differ. What I haven't read is that the GFS is suffering feedback issues like before Debby. lol. What little that's been said about it is cautiously keeping an eye on things. :)

Maybe the GFS Excels with CFI, because it predicted Debby would hit Florida and stuck to its prediction 10 days out
Please troller on antitruth meds, please ignore me. :)
Couldn't tell if you were serious in your prior post, so this post is only serious if you were. :)
Either way, everyone's entitled to their opinions. Really headed out now. Goodnight you fine bloggers.
Goodnight all, still think 93L is confused about which way to go.
1105. JLPR2
Was reading the comments of one of Dr. Masters entries in 2009 of 94L (PRE-Felix) and dang, I was a complete orthography eyesore. Bad punctuation, no commas, no capital letters and writing ridiculously obvious things...

Now I'm angry at myself. XD
Quoting JLPR2:
Was reading the comments of one of Dr. Masters entries in 2009 of 94L (PRE-Felix) and dang, I was a complete orthography eyesore. Bad punctuation, no commas, no capital letters and writing ridiculously obvious things...

Now I'm angry at myself. XD



Link it :p
1107. JLPR2
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Link it :p


Here you go, just cause I like humiliating myself. LOL!
You should be, lol, Jeff makes grammatical errors now very seldom. JLPR2, grammar as much as I love it, is no substitute for what Jeff knows as a climate scientist expert. Can't believe he has never had someone to do the grammatical check for him through all these years. A real do-it-yourselfer. I will go back and read blogs of his from the era, and like you, I'll cringe too. Good grammar conveys a strong message too. Jeff is so sharp in advanced sciences and math that we should forgive his occasional grammatical mistake. Was going to go to bed but my woman and me daughter are hogging the entire bed. Two cats have gotten comfortable too. Dastardly.
1109. JLPR2
The two last TWs basically shut down after emerging, but are eliminating the SAL from the area, giving the huge one inland a shot at development.



Quoting JLPR2:


Here you go, just cause I like humiliating myself. LOL!


Hey, its all about learning :D you should be proud of how much better you are
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150543
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY
THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
93 is at 60 percent
1113. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
You should be, lol, Jeff makes grammatical errors now very seldom. JLPR2, grammar as much as I love it, is no substitute for what Jeff knows as a climate scientist expert. Can't believe he has never had someone to do the grammatical check for him through all these years. A real do-it-yourselfer. I will go back and read blogs of his from the era, and like you, I'll cringe too. Good grammar conveys a strong message too. Jeff is so sharp in advanced sciences and math that we should forgive his occasional grammatical mistake. Was going to go to bed but my woman and me daughter are hogging the entire bed. Two cats have gotten comfortable too. Dastardly.


Ha!

But Jeff having a grammar error here and there is understandable. He probably has many other things to do and still finds the time to write blog after blog for our enjoyment. :)
1114. JLPR2
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150543
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY
THURSDAY.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
93 is at 60 percent


Huzzah! Come on Gordon!
1115. JLPR2
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Hey, its all about learning :D you should be proud of how much better you are


Yes, I do feel better when I consider that, I just feel sorry for everyone that had to suffer through my grammar disaster era.
Keeper, you, Grothar, and Patrap would make excellent moderators here. Gro wouldn't do it, but you and Pat would be excellent for it.
my grammar disaster era? Is this you Jeff? Most importantly, does your wife know your up blogging at this hour? :)
If this is you Jeff, should probably erase the comments confirming that. :) my grammatical disaster era had me raising my eyebrows.
sorry not looking for a job

thanks all the same

anyway iam out see ya all sometime after sunrise
When the blog merges with TWC I wonder if the blog will explode with new users. Most only care about the details of their day's weather. Wouldn't be shocked if the blog did little more that double or triple. Still will be cool to have more members and more points of views.
Quoting JLPR2:


Here you go, just cause I like humiliating myself. LOL!

Ahh... there were 5 AOIs back then.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310227
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
480 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC
CITY NEW JERSEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
EVENING...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
1122. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper, you, Grothar, and Patrap would make excellent moderators here. Gro wouldn't do it, but you and Pat would be excellent for it.


Maybe we could persuade Gro. :P

I wouldn't mind doing it. But as many said already, they wouldn't like a regular blogger having that much power as they think biased decisions could occur.
1123. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
If this is you Jeff, should probably erase the comments confirming that. :) my grammatical disaster era had me raising my eyebrows.


Nope, I'm still me and as far as I know my name is not Jeff. XD
1124. JLPR2
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Ahh... there were 5 AOIs back then.
000


Ah yes, active times. 2012 shouldn't be that intense, but we will probably see some action by that time frame this year.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Ahh... there were 5 AOIs back then.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310227
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
480 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC
CITY NEW JERSEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
EVENING...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Mighty Felix & 4 duds.

I remember 2007 as the year of the promising AOI that never developed. There were about twice as many that year as there are most other years.
When the merge happens they'll have a regular moderator for the blogs I bet. Will be interesting to see how the blog changes then. An influx of hundreds if not thousands will be interesting to say the least. Pretty tight nit blog as is. Even those who ardently disagree on subjects are respectful to each other. Hard to find in America these days.
Nuttin' for the GOM but something approaching east coast at the end of run.

1128. JLPR2
When one triple posts it means the blog is just too quiet. xD
Triple post, I'm inflating my post numbers; somewhere: Barry Bonds understands.
Quoting JLPR2:


Ah yes, active times. 2012 shouldn't be that intense, but we will probably see some action by that time frame this year.

I guess so.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

As it makes landfall 00z GFS 183 Hrs


I really, really, really, want to see the ensemble members for this run...
Really curious to see if the other models will latch onto the GFS solution of a possible Gulf storm. It's about the only way I'll have a chase, so pardon me if my optimism is showing. ;)
People that evacuated in the Tampa Bay area for Charley mostly went to Orlando -- where they were treated to a direct hit and 100mph winds and massive traffic jams as they tried to leave the hurricane struck area for their untouched homes. Anyone, and I mean anyone, that could read a basic weather map knew by late the night before the storm that it wasn't coming to Tampa and it hit well south of Tampa, that and the fact Charley was a really tiny hurricane meant much of the Tampa area had a few sprinkles. Good job hurricane forecasters, after many many years of bad evacuation orders it will come as no surprise when people don't leave in the future.
Jelloboy that was the most backwards post I've read in awhile. While your right to an extent, the evacuation order was given when it looked like Charley could be a real killer to the St.Pete/Tampa area. By the time it was evident that Charley was going south, the evacuation order was long ago given. Most in Tampa/St.Pete know the precarious nature they live in; in regards to the danger of a Major making landfall. NHC are the best and there is no one credible to debate that. They have the best tools and brightest minds. Your slam of them, Jelloboy, is unfair, misplaced, and full of haterism. Go get your doctorate and do better or silence of the lambs.
1136. JLPR2
00z GFS doesn't show this, but look at that, our currently humongous wave, which is inland in Africa, spinning in the CATL at 168hrs on the 00z EURO.


Alright, exhaustion is winning the battle. G'night whomever's left here. WU is my social entertainment, I really need to get out more. :)
1138. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
Alright, exhaustion is winning the battle. G'night whomever's left here. WU is my social entertainment, I really need to get out more. :)


Night!
I'll probably stay until the EURO finishes running.
G'night.
G'night AtHomeInTexas, your a great blogger. Never once, have I heard you with a cross word for anyone. Late crew wouldn't be the same without you. :)
93L is 25 kt 1014 mb according to 06UTC ATCF.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (T1213)
15:00 PM JST August 15 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Bashi Channel

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (990 hPa) located at 18.7N 120.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.2N 116.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Northern South China Sea
48 HRS: 22.3N 113.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Northern South China Sea
72 HRS: 23.1N 109.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Southern China
1143. JLPR2
240hrs GFS vs EURO





Hmm... Wonder which one is right, or maybe neither.

Well, that's it for me. Goodnight everyone!
Quoting JLPR2:
240hrs GFS vs EURO





Hmm... Wonder which one is right, or maybe neither.

Well, that's it for me. Goodnight everyone!

Good night, JLPR!

Is anyone from the East Coast? It would be surprising to see someone up at 3 am (EDT).

Well, it's 4:10 pm here. Heavy rain in Seoul.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Good night, JLPR!

Is anyone from the East Coast? It would be surprising to see someone up at 3 am (EDT).

Well, it's 4:10 pm here. Heavy rain in Seoul.
Im not from the East Coast but I tell you this rain has been something else.
good morning blog! just got off and still see 93L tryna hang on for dear life.
i see the wave on africa look good lets see if it holds
Quoting bigwes6844:
i see the wave on africa look good lets see if it holds
What a beast, actually I hope it does, so we can have something to track!
Code red 93L.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150543
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY
THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
......
Hector... not so good at this moment... but getting better.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1000.4mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.8 2.8


AL, 93, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 139N, 85W, 20, 1007, DB,
AL, 93, 2012080900, , BEST, 0, 140N, 97W, 20, 1007, DB,
AL, 93, 2012080906, , BEST, 0, 141N, 122W, 20, 1006, DB,
AL, 93, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 140W, 20, 1006, DB,
AL, 93, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 155W, 25, 1004, DB,
AL, 93, 2012081000, , BEST, 0, 151N, 171W, 25, 1004, DB,
AL, 93, 2012081006, , BEST, 0, 155N, 188W, 30, 1004, DB,
AL, 93, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 160N, 206W, 30, 1004, DB,
AL, 93, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 167N, 218W, 25, 1007, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081100, , BEST, 0, 174N, 230W, 25, 1009, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081106, , BEST, 0, 180N, 245W, 25, 1010, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081112, , BEST, 0, 190N, 273W, 25, 1011, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081118, , BEST, 0, 195N, 293W, 25, 1012, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081200, , BEST, 0, 202N, 314W, 25, 1013, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081206, , BEST, 0, 205N, 336W, 25, 1014, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081212, , BEST, 0, 207N, 355W, 25, 1015, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081218, , BEST, 0, 211N, 372W, 25, 1015, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081300, , BEST, 0, 215N, 391W, 25, 1015, LO,
AL, 93, 2012081306, , BEST, 0, 220N, 412W, 25, 1012, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081312, , BEST, 0, 225N, 433W, 25, 1014, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081318, , BEST, 0, 230N, 452W, 25, 1015, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081400, , BEST, 0, 235N, 470W, 20, 1015, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081406, , BEST, 0, 240N, 488W, 20, 1015, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081412, , BEST, 0, 245N, 505W, 25, 1015, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081418, , BEST, 0, 250N, 519W, 25, 1014, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081500, , BEST, 0, 254N, 530W, 25, 1014, WV,
AL, 93, 2012081506, , BEST, 0, 261N, 539W, 25, 1014, LO,

93L is now a low again! Not a wave anymore!
By the way, the above is the ATCF history of 93L.
1156. pcola57
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I agree. Believe it or not, there are actually a lot of people in the US and in the world who are apolitical, in general terms. Such people have not fallen for or fallen into the divide and control mind program and thus are independent thinkers who generally do not belong to any political party or ascribe to any particular political ideology.

Non-political people also usually learn to respect the views of others, even when these views or opinions do not conform to their own ideas and opinions (gasp!).
And people like this usually prefer not to argue with anyone about politics, regardless of the nature or degree of expressed feelings and opinions, on any subject. Instead, they would rather discuss other things and in a friendly and non-argumentative manner, again seeking to respect a wide variety of viewpoints and opinions.

For such persons, the subject of the potential risk of a hurricane striking a given location at the proposed time for a political convention taking place at that location does not bring forth any desires to inject political ideology into the discussion in any form or fashion, mainly because the subject at hand relates to meteorology and not political ideology. Hard to believe for some I suppose but there are a lot of people who fit this general description.


Well put FLWaterFront..
1157. pcola57


Lightening show woke me early this am..
Going back to bed..need all the beauty sleep I can get.. :)
Just looking at some people pressuring about this season is crazy! We are well ahead of time with some of these storms as far as names. Normally the G or H storms normally not suppose to be here until september. For us to be almost at G in a few days or hours would be called an active season already. I think everyone needs to calm down and remember its only august 15th folks and theres a lot thats gonna happen between now and late september to early october. I just feel people are jumping the gun saying that the season is over. Like the old times say: Never say Never! and it only takes one storm to say it was a bad season! Maybe this will help some people out again
1159. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
Just looking at some people pressuring about this season is crazy! We are well ahead of time with some of these storms as far as names. Normally the G or H storms normally not suppose to be here until september. For us to be almost at G in a few days or hours would be called an active season already. I think everyone needs to calm down and remember its only august 15th folks and theres a lot thats gonna happen between now and late september to early october. I just feel people are jumping the gun saying that the season is over. Like the old times say: Never say Never! and it only takes one storm to say it was a bad season! Maybe this will help some people out again
..good point made, and your right..its been a very active season so far, yes we are in a lull right now which is great because we need a breather, but we still have months to go and the waters are perking hot..and sept is coming
Quoting LargoFl:
..good point made, and your right..its been a very active season so far, yes we are in a lull right now which is great because we need a breather, but we still have months to go and the waters are perking hot..and sept is coming
excatly largo because people are killing me saying that the season is over. i bet if we get an irene or ike situation watch how the season end report is gonna be. sometimes i wonder about certain people who get on here largo
1161. LargoFl
Quoting Jelloboy:
People that evacuated in the Tampa Bay area for Charley mostly went to Orlando -- where they were treated to a direct hit and 100mph winds and massive traffic jams as they tried to leave the hurricane struck area for their untouched homes. Anyone, and I mean anyone, that could read a basic weather map knew by late the night before the storm that it wasn't coming to Tampa and it hit well south of Tampa, that and the fact Charley was a really tiny hurricane meant much of the Tampa area had a few sprinkles. Good job hurricane forecasters, after many many years of bad evacuation orders it will come as no surprise when people don't leave in the future.
..I remember that!!..something inside me said stay home that day..so i did..and was very thankful i did too, wasnt all that bad here, some of my neighbors who fled to orlando, came back with horror stories..my wife looked at me and smiled..we did the right thing and she nodded..you were right..thank you
1162. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
excatly largo because people are killing me saying that the season is over. i bet if we get an irene or ike situation watch how the season end report is gonna be. sometimes i wonder about certain people who get on here largo
..yeah some here are young, we must remember that, all they want to see are these monster storms..like watching a sci-fi movie..when theres nothing on..they get bored
1163. LargoFl
......................................good morning folks...another hot and normal florida day shaping up here..yes the morning few storms along the coast..moving inland in the afternoon..the normal stuff and the rain we can always use huh....have a wonderful day everyone
1164. LargoFl
1165. LargoFl
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I don't think I would trust another Republican President to forecast the weather, ever again.



Actually, an arguably obscure forecast was made just three weeks before Katrina hit.

It was a rather odd thing to say to the most technologically advanced entity on earth, perhaps suggesting that our own intelligent design would soon fail a certain way?

Make no mistake, the "sign of Jonah" is a paradoxical weather forecast of a specific type. Hurricane Katrina would become the worst ocean storm in modern U.S. history, and many people would drown, while the Bush "whale" would do little to help them, despite his supposedly "Christian" ethic.[Post 570]

Interestingly, three years later, a similar forecast would be made on the same exact forum, by the same forecaster, arguably drawing a map of where another NASA facility would be directly hit. Those are curious odds, especially if you consider that "Ike" founded NASA.











You are not the brightest crayon in the box are you? You ever trust anyone other thant the National Hurricane center for weather advise? What you mean you will never trust another republican for weather advise, you mean that during Katrina you listen to Bush? Well I would advise you not to Listen to them for Financial Advise neither. I mean look at the Trillion dollar deficit the country is in since Bush and Obama Have been in power. Keep depending so much in government.
1167. LargoFl
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA...

ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT ON OLD MAGNOLIA RD AFFECTING WAKULLA COUNTY

.A RATHER PERSISTENT WET PATTERN HAS PROVIDED RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. THE CONTINUED RAINS ARE PREVENTING THE ST. MARKS RIVER FROM
FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO
NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PAGE PROVIDES CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER
INFORMATION...GAGE LOCATIONS...IMPACTS... AND HISTORICAL CREST INFORMATION FOR
ALL FORECAST POINTS BY CLICKING ON EACH POINT.

&&

FLC129-160142-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120818T0000Z/
/NEPF1.1.ER.120808T1800Z.120810T2000Z.120817T1800 Z.NO/
1024 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT ON OLD
MAGNOLIA RD...
* UNTIL FRIDAY.
* AT 9:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN STEADY NEAR 7.2 FEET THROUGH
TOMORROW...THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.

&&


FLD OBSERVED 7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME WED THU FRI SAT SUN

ST. MARKS RIVER
NEWPORT ON 7 7.2 TUE 09 PM 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8


$$
1168. LargoFl

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
504 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS
POINT...ESCATAWPA...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 456 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 10 AND
THE COAST...MAINLY FROM OCEAN SPRINGS EASTWARD. UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN THIS AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GULF PARK
ESTATES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.



LAT...LON 3034 8840 3035 8843 3031 8847 3031 8850
3033 8852 3033 8857 3036 8862 3034 8874
3037 8881 3042 8887 3042 8888 3054 8840
3035 8839

Good morning. Still looking like Kai-Tak will make landfall very close to Hong Kong as a typhoon:




Quoting angelafritz:


It's all about finding the things you need in a form that you like. Data is data.


Hi Angela,

What's the best text book of which you are aware for someone with a computer science/programming bent to learn the basics of weather modelling?

In my current job I've been learning practical, hands-on strategies for using neural networks predictively and I'd like to apply it to my amateur interest in tropical meteorology.

It's hard to find the data you want when you're not totally clear about what you need.
Looks like the gfs has backed off the low doing anything in the Boc.Makes sense this wave will be in southern Mexico by tomorrow. 06 run
My New Video Blog For Wednesday Link
Largo, why do you continue to post your local weather information? If we want to see it, then we can go to the local weather at the top of the page.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY...AND
TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF BELIZE. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting Wunderwood:
Largo, why do you continue to post your local weather information? If we want to see it, then we can go to the local weather at the top of the page.

Did you think.... Maybe people don't know where to find this information.
This one could be threatening the Azore Islands as a weakening hurricane. Talk about rare.



1177. SLU
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 151134
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY...AND
TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF BELIZE. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



93L







Persistent high pressure over the Desert SW will back off enough to allow this front to sink a far south as our area, we believe, before stalling out Saturday to Sunday. Odds for rain have improved to 30-40% over the weekend. And that's not all: a wealth of moisture in Mexico will probably combine with a tropical wave nearing the West Gulf, and it could all amount to several rounds of seabreeze type rain sweeping into our area from the coast early next week.

Best Weather News in over a month here, goodbye to 100 degree temps for several days due to clouds and chances of much needed rain for South Central Texas.
Hi people I see we must likely will have td 8 for this afternoon.wish me luck for my junior year:) I start classes today.
Quoting westernmob:
Methinks Dr. Masters is wishful thinking on a hurricane hit in Tampa, given his political leanings.

Which is why he gave it a 0.2% chance of occurring, right?

Give us a break..
1183. Msdrown
Good Morning all, a few questions. The TWC just mentioned a new weather expert named Dr. Postel. Does anybody know this guy pro or con???

TWC says Hernesto/Ernie may be headed NE back across MEX and into the BOC. Thats as far as they went. Any thoughts?

The local NOLA mets said the blob in MEX/GOM w may send some moisture there way but nothing else. Thoughts??

I noticed the dry air from the Sahara is shrinking. Can we expect our normal Aug/Sep wave train to pic up with REAL developing storms now???
Looks like we might have a hurricane later this week according to some models. And it could hit the Azores.
Quoting Msdrown:
Good Morning all, a few questions. The TWC just mentioned a new weather expert named Dr. Postel. Does anybody know this guy pro or con???
He's legitimate, AFAIK.
Good Morning. Except for the low shear and warm sst's, the Central Atlantic still looks like a dry desert with lots of SAL and a non-existent ITCZ. Looks more like October than mid-August. Only exception is the wave in the Northern part on the verge of TD status.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Looks like we might have a hurricane later this week according to some models. And it could hit the Azores.
Quoting westernmob:
Methinks Dr. Masters is wishful thinking on a hurricane hit in Tampa, given his political leanings.


I don't think so...
Quoting LargoFl:
......................................good morning folks...another hot and normal florida day shaping up here..yes the morning few storms along the coast..moving inland in the afternoon..the normal stuff and the rain we can always use huh....have a wonderful day everyone

Thanks for that info Largo. I was hoping to get at least 9 holes of golf in on the east coast later this afternoon and this looks like I may be able to play 18 for a change!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which is why he gave it a 0.2% chance of occurring, right?

Give us a break..


No rest for the weary


yikes not much SAL in the EATL



and no dry air for a change
Quoting weatherh98:


I don't think so...

Post 1176
Quoting Msdrown:
Good Morning all, a few questions. The TWC just mentioned a new weather expert named Dr. Postel. Does anybody know this guy pro or con???

TWC says Hernesto/Ernie may be headed NE back across MEX and into the BOC. Thats as far as they went. Any thoughts?

The local NOLA mets said the blob in MEX/GOM w may send some moisture there way but nothing else. Thoughts??

I noticed the dry air from the Sahara is shrinking. Can we expect our normal Aug/Sep wave train to pic up with REAL developing storms now???

From what I've seen, Postel knows his stuff.

As for development in the BOC, none of the hurricane models show Hector hooking back towards the coast. The more likely scenario is that moisture from ex-TD Seven combines with moisture from a strong front across the Gulf in a few days.

The wave train will begin soon.
1193. Msdrown
Quoting Neapolitan:
He's legitimate, AFAIK.



I like this guys attitude and thinking. It is sort of why I started following this web blog in the first place.
1194. VR46L
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Except for the low shear and warm sst's, the Central Atlantic still looks like a dry desert with lots of SAL and a non-existent ITCZ. Looks more like October than mid-August. Only exception is the wave in the Northern part on the verge of TD status.


Yep its pretty dry out there

1195. Grothar
Looks like 93L got it's European Visa stamped last night. Poor fellow just missed the closing ceremonies and they were worried about security over there. Top notch I tell ya.
Quoting Chicklit:


yikes not much SAL in the EATL


Not off the coast of Africa which makes the lack of any significant ITCZ in that area all the more perplexing. Only thing I can think of is that the last three systems to emerge (including that wave that spawned Ernesto) were an early cluster and we are going through a lull at the moment. Either we will get another cluster between now and the end of September, which will moisten up the ITCZ again, or we won't and it will be harder for another CV storm to spin up. We need another shot of moisture from a few strong waves out there to set up that component to go along with the low sheer and sst's.
1198. pottery
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Not off the coast of Africa which makes the lack of any significant ITCZ in that area all the more perplexing. Only thing I can think of is that the last three systems to emerge (including that wave that spawned Ernesto) were an early cluster and we are going through a lull at the moment. Either we will get another cluster between now and the end of September, which will moisten up the ITCZ again, or we won't and it will be harder for another CV storm to spin up. We another need shot of moisture from a few strong waves out there to set up thast component to go along with the low sheer and sst's.

In the meantime, there be thunder rumbling just south of me.
Quite surprising to me. I was sure we would have a couple of dry days.
Quoting VR46L:


Yep its pretty dry out there


The WGOM has a substantial pocket of dry air but if moisture from TD7 streams north as TX13 mentions, then that will be lessened.


And the Caribbean is full of moisture at least for now.

Neither Ernesto nor TD-7 were deep enough to cause much upwellng in the Basin.
1200. Msdrown
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

From what I've seen, Postel knows his stuff.

As for development in the BOC, none of the hurricane models show Hector hooking back towards the coast. The more likely scenario is that moisture from ex-TD Seven combines with moisture from a strong front across the Gulf in a few days.

The wave train will begin soon.



Yea, I noticed the 2am tracks still had Hector going W but then the TWC said when the typical 40-60 moisture/Tstorms in Central would join it and move NE contradicting the models. Just thought I'd ask you guys what you thought.
1201. pottery
Your Glob is looking good, Grothar !
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Not off the coast of Africa which makes the lack of any significant ITCZ in that area all the more perplexing. Only thing I can think of is that the last three systems to emerge (including that wave that spawned Ernesto) were an early cluster and we are going through a lull at the moment. Either we will get another cluster between now and the end of September, which will moisten up the ITCZ again, or we won't and it will be harder for another CV storm to spin up. We another need shot of moisture from a few strong waves out there to set up that component to go along with the low sheer and sst's.

Don't you consider that monster about to emerge a significant wave? And its precursors have moistened the path. I see the SAL to its south, but don't think that will do much.
1203. Grothar
Quoting pottery:
Your Glob is looking good, Grothar !


Thank you.
Quoting Chicklit:

Don't you consider that monster about to emerge a significant wave? And its precursors have moistened the path. I see the SAL to its south, but don't think that will do much.


Any substaintial rain by you lately as it looks like Volusia County has been hit hard lately by strong storms over the last week or so? My Beach house is in Bethune Beach I and I just want some assurance that plants have been watered well by mother nature.
Quoting pottery:
Your Glob is looking good, Grothar !

second that
1206. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Thank you.

Anytime !

It's started to drizzle.
I have to have some more coffee.
Just in case.........
1207. Grothar
Quoting Chicklit:

Don't you consider that monster about to emerge a significant wave? And its precursors have moistened the path. I see the SAL to its south, but don't think that will do much.



Quoting StormTracker2K:


Any substaintial rain by you lately as it looks like Volusia County has been hit hard lately by strong storms over the last week or so. My Beach house is in Bethune Beach I and I just want some assurance that plants have been watered well by mother nature?

They're pretty well watered.
We've been getting sun during the day and then afternoon showers about nearly every day for a while. Drove over to Orlando area last evening through some very hard rain so not sure how much we had over here yesterday.
Parts of C FL got absolutely BLASTED yesterday.

This is from Cape Canaveral yesterday.


This is from Downtown Orlando just as the storms rolled in.


Lightning pic from Edgwater
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Post 1176
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Post 1176

Didn't mean to quote u
Quoting Chicklit:

Don't you consider that monster about to emerge a significant wave? And its precursors have moistened the path. I see the SAL to its south, but don't think that will do much.


It does look impressive, and that may be the one to get the ball rolling again.

Link
Yup, I was driving through some of that ST2K. Could hardly see out the front window for a while a couple of times.
Have a great day everyone.
1214. VR46L
Quoting Chicklit:

The WGOM has a substantial pocket of dry air but if moisture from TD7 streams north as TX13 mentions, then that will be lessened.


And the Caribbean is full of moisture at least for now.

Neither Ernesto nor TD-7 were deep enough to cause much upwellng in the Basin.


I was talking about the central atlantic .. but both the east and west has good conditions .
Quoting Grothar:






the wave will likey go poof
Quoting Altestic2012:

PDO's aren't a year-to-year thing like ENSO. PDO's last about 30-40 years. 2005 might have been the transitional year, it's tough to say because we headed right into an El Nino the year after. In that case it is reasonable to assume that 1933 (not coincidentally the last hyperactive hurricane season before 2005) was the last year we began the transition into the last cold PDO.

As the PDOs continue to be cool, El Ninos will be less frequent, Al Gore's theory will die and people will go back to complaining that we're causing global freezing and bringing us back into an ige age. :-)
I'm no AGW hawk, but even I know this is wrongful attribution... Saying this is Gore's theory is like agreeing he invented the internet....

Quoting JLPR2:
Was reading the comments of one of Dr. Masters entries in 2009 of 94L (PRE-Felix) and dang, I was a complete orthography eyesore. Bad punctuation, no commas, no capital letters and writing ridiculously obvious things...

Now I'm angry at myself. XD
's OK... learning curve. At least u r improving.... some are going the other way... lol...

Quoting Jelloboy:
People that evacuated in the Tampa Bay area for Charley mostly went to Orlando -- where they were treated to a direct hit and 100mph winds and massive traffic jams as they tried to leave the hurricane struck area for their untouched homes. Anyone, and I mean anyone, that could read a basic weather map knew by late the night before the storm that it wasn't coming to Tampa and it hit well south of Tampa, that and the fact Charley was a really tiny hurricane meant much of the Tampa area had a few sprinkles. Good job hurricane forecasters, after many many years of bad evacuation orders it will come as no surprise when people don't leave in the future.
This is really cool... lambaste the guys who don't even work for NHC anymore... A lot of NHCs track improvement has come post 2005. Besides, you are assuming that most of the evacuees were still in Tampa the night before...
Hindsight can see everything so clearly.
Quoting weatherh98:

Didn't mean to quote u
Quoting weatherh98:

Didn't mean to quote u

Why the double quotes?
1218. VR46L
This day last week people were suggesting that 93L would be a TD or TS as soon as it departed Africa ... Guess thats why we watch weather the uncertainty of it all . Who knows If that wave coming off africa shortly will develop or will get choked in the mid altantic ?

93L's winds are up to 30 knots, but the pressure is still ungainly:

AL, 93, 2012081512, , BEST, 0, 276N, 545W, 30, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting VR46L:
This day last week people were suggesting that 93L would be a TD or TS as soon as it departed Africa ... Guess thats why we watch weather the uncertainty of it all . Who knows If that wave coming off africa shortly will develop or will get choked in the mid altantic ?

no.go...93.is.going.to.take.the.energy.away.from. the.tw.
Quoting Wunderwood:
Largo, why do you continue to post your local weather information? If we want to see it, then we can go to the local weather at the top of the page.
I actually like this aspect of the blog... and considering the RNC is going there soon, there may be some others out there who also like it.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Persistent high pressure over the Desert SW will back off enough to allow this front to sink a far south as our area, we believe, before stalling out Saturday to Sunday. Odds for rain have improved to 30-40% over the weekend. And that's not all: a wealth of moisture in Mexico will probably combine with a tropical wave nearing the West Gulf, and it could all amount to several rounds of seabreeze type rain sweeping into our area from the coast early next week.

Best Weather News in over a month here, goodbye to 100 degree temps for several days due to clouds and chances of much needed rain for South Central Texas.
Looks like u finally get some rain, bo.... hope it's just that, with no attendant wind...

I know that Levi has posted in the past on conditions in the Sahel Desert that he has monitored from time to time over the years for an idea of when the ongoing wave activity would pick up or, diminish.

If Levi is out there, his opinion would be appreciated.
Quoting Neapolitan:
93L's winds are up to 30 knots, but the pressure is still pretty high:

AL, 93, 2012081512, , BEST, 0, 276N, 545W, 30, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Looks like it will be one of those high pressure hurricanes if it does indeed become one like the hurricane models are showing.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
[lookss at sat image of soon-to-be TD08]
That trough better grab this thing...
1225. Grothar
Quoting Tazmanian:



the wave will likey go poof


How dare you poof my blob! :)

The MJO is expected to go into an upward phase soon. That, and the expected cool weather coming down the central US has climatologically been favored for increased activity in the Atlantic basin. I do not expect much in the way of very strong CV systems, but all indications are there should be increased activity in the next few weeks.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I know that Levi has posted in the past on conditions in the Sahel Desert that he has monitored from time to time over the years for an idea of when the ongoing wave activity would pick up or, diminish.

If Levi is out there, his opinion would be appreciated.
He may not be up yet... what do u think of the chances for the proposed GoM cyclone event?
Hmm. SHIPS forecasts weakening after 72 hours. (Max winds 73 kts, as of 12UTC)
Quoting Grothar:


How dare you poof my blob! :)

The MJO is expected to go into an upward phase soon. That, and the expected cool weather coming down the central US has climatologically been favored for increased activity in the Atlantic basin. I do not expect much in the way of very strong CV systems, but all indications are there should be increased activity in the next few weeks.



The last time I check the MJO forecast is not forecast too be has strong in fac we may not see the MJO at all
Good morning to all... we are now experiencing the heat of August... our low is forecasted to drop only to 81 today... best part of all this is that there are still light easterlies keeping it from becoming a total sweat pot... but it's better to do "whatever" before 11 a.m...

On the matter of the CVs, I don't knnow that I ever expected large numbers of them to form. My recollection of a lot of the pre-season discussion was that a lot of development in the western 1/2 of the basin was expected, since conditions in the eastern and central parts of the MDR were expected to be fairly hostile towards tropical development. What I keep looking at is how well these Twaves have been holding on to their structure even when facing these challenging circumstances. Sure, 93L didn't form immediately off the coast of Africa, but at any time in the last few days its MLC could be located. This meant that even a modest improvemment in circumstances could lead to the tropical development we are seeing today.

I don't doubt we will continue to see tropical development this season. I am not expecting large CVs to be the norm, though. I'm a lot more concerned about the potential for storms forming west of 55W and taking advantage of improved dynamics quite close to home, where recurves are more likely to result in landfall somewhere....
Quoting BahaHurican:
He may not be up yet... what do u think of the chances for the proposed GoM cyclone event?


I there were two possibilities folks have been talking about lately; a lower system in the Bay of Campeche (from remnant's of TD7?) and possible development of frontal remnants over the weekend in the Gulf of Mexico as suggested by Dr. M. I have not looked a model runs yet today but the TD7 scenario is off the table. Looking at the East Coast WV loop this morning (below) that frontal boundry appears to be flattening out so I do not know whether this one will get south enough to leave a significant remnant in the Gulf over the weekend. Sheer is certainly low enough and SST's are high but I am not thinking is will pan out...............Just my opinion.

WV loop:

Link
And I think hurricane season is at its end



Will see I huh?
Bastardi is still forecasting potential trouble for the Southeast.
1233. icmoore
The subject of this particular blog makes me nervous, kind of like a reality check. We moved from a home inland that was not in any flood zone to a cottage across the street from the Gulf on a barrier island and would be first to be told to evacuate. I don't even like to think about evacuating. I'm hoping Debby is all we see for a long time so I'm loving all the dry air so far this season!
I wonder if that could be because of el nino forming quicker? who knows.....strange season for sure.
Quoting Tazmanian:



The last time I check the MJO forecast is not forecast too be has strong in fac we may not see the MJO at all
Quoting kshipre1:
I wonder if that could be because of el nino forming quicker? who knows.....strange season for sure.



Maybe oh nos?
Gonna get some work done. Everyone have a great day.
good morning to all, so hot and humid this mourning i had to go with iced coffee :). I see the gfs is trying to develop a nice 850 vort along the Mexican coast and 93L is up to 80%... Finally something to talk about :)
Quoting Wunderwood:
Bastardi is still forecasting potential trouble for the Southeast.
He may be right one day; there's always a first time for everything...
1239. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone..

I was posting last night how the ensemble models were trending more west and south with the Cape Verde storm it was showing..I see the operational Euro is back on the idea and the GFS operational has gone south with it and west but disappating the storm before hitting florida..lets see if the trend continues
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Parts of C FL got absolutely BLASTED yesterday.

This is from Cape Canaveral yesterday.


This is from Downtown Orlando just as the storms rolled in.


Lightning pic from Edgwater



Nice photos man, we haven't had anything locally in many days. Nothing will develop off the water, and the clouds don't grow until they progress east of here because the sea breeze is ill defined. Unfortunately for us this pattern is expected to continue through next week. At this rate we'll be approaching the record driest August here ever. Which is so strange because in this pattern we always at least get some rain along the coast, but we aren't. Also, to this pattern this persistent in August is nearly unheard of. I guess I had way too much hope in a "normal" rainy season, lol...
Quoting Tazmanian:



The last time I check the MJO forecast is not forecast too be has strong in fac we may not see the MJO at all


There's no way that big poppa is going poof, the MJO is going up, up, up, up, up!!!
1242. Msdrown
Quoting icmoore:
The subject of this particular blog makes me nervous, kind of like a reality check. We moved from a home inland that was not in any flood zone to a cottage across the street from the Gulf on a barrier island and would be first to be told to evacuate. I don't even like to think about evacuating. I'm hoping Debby is all we see for a long time so I'm loving all the dry air so far this season!


I think what you should want is ocasional thunderstorms to keep this watered and cooled but no heavy tropicals. That would be the best scenario.
too funny lol
Quoting Neapolitan:
He may be right one day; there's always a first time for everything...
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I know that Levi has posted in the past on conditions in the Sahel Desert that he has monitored from time to time over the years for an idea of when the ongoing wave activity would pick up or, diminish.

If Levi is out there, his opinion would be appreciated.

It is like 4am where he lives right now.
Quoting Neapolitan:
He may be right one day; there's always a first time for everything...

even a stopped clock has the right time twice a day.
Wow...93L is coming together nice...but its turning northward a hair earlier than I thought...

Did a blog update this morning on all the Atlantic tropics...

Quoting icmoore:
The subject of this particular blog makes me nervous, kind of like a reality check. We moved from a home inland that was not in any flood zone to a cottage across the street from the Gulf on a barrier island and would be first to be told to evacuate. I don't even like to think about evacuating. I'm hoping Debby is all we see for a long time so I'm loving all the dry air so far this season!

You have moved to a beautiful place and the thought of someday having to evacuate may be depressing. BUT,  but please know, if the storm comes, you need to have a plan in place, and NEVER  EVER say "I'll be ok"  and "I'll just hunker down" as they say. These things are serious.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This one could be threatening the Azore Islands as a weakening hurricane. Talk about rare.





Wow 93L has almost unanimous model support. Wonder if we might see a "Chris" type of storm. Water temperatures are at about 23-24 degrees Celsuis around the Azores but you do not have to go far to the southwest to find MUCH warmer waters. In fact this entire basin is above average. If 93L becomes well organized before it encounters coolers waters it can more than easily traverse through the Azores with a powerful punch.




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1250. Patrap
Western Wildfires 2012: Blaze Destroys 60 Homes In Washington (VIDEO)
Reuters | By Jonathan Kaminsky


OLYMPIA, Wash., Aug 14 (Reuters) - Firefighters battled wildfires across the U.S. West on Tuesday, including a massive out-of-control blaze that has destroyed at least 60 homes and burned more than 28,000 acres between two national forests in Washington state.

Another 400 homes were evacuated in the rolling hills between the northwest Washington towns of Cle Elum and Ellensburg, at the eastern edge of the Cascade Mountains, prompting Governor Christine Gregoire to declare a state of emergency in two counties.

The massive Taylor Bridge Fire was among more than a dozen wildfires burning across the West, which is wilting under a heat wave that has sent temperatures into the triple digits. Together, the fires have burned some 500,000 acres (200,000 hectares) across Idaho, Washington, Oregon and California.

Across the nation, wildfires have consumed roughly 6 million acres (2.4 million hectares) this year, above the 10-year average of 4.9 million acres, according to figures from the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.

Authorities said the Washington state fire was started on Monday afternoon by workers at a construction site east of Cle Elum, about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Seattle.

"We don't know what the actual cause was. We have no indication it was intentional," said Nancy Jones, a spokeswoman for a state emergency response team.

With strong winds and no rain in the area for three weeks, more damage is likely, said Bryan Flint, spokesman for the Department of Natural Resources.

Winds are pushing the fire east toward an area of mostly farmland, although more homes are in its path, Jones said. The fire is burning just 4 miles northwest of Ellensburg and 10 miles south of the Wenatchee National Forest. South of the fire is the Snoqualmie National Forest.

"All Washingtonians stand with those who have lost their homes and property in the Taylor Bridge Fire," Gregoire said in a written statement. "The destruction overnight is a stark reminder of how quickly and unexpectedly wildfire can move."


FIRES BURN IN CALIFORNIA

In northern California, more than 1,100 firefighters spent a third day attacking a pair of wildfires that have destroyed two homes in Lake County's Spring Valley area and charred some 7,000 acres.

Firefighters had contained only 30 percent of the two blazes burning dry brush in remote Lake and Colusa counties, said Daniel Berlant, a California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection spokesman. They did not expect full containment for a week.

But firefighters made enough progress attacking one of the fires that authorities lifted an evacuation order for 480 homes in the Spring Valley area on Monday night, he said.

Berlant said the flames had moved east into Colusa County and continued to threaten the area around Wilbur Hot Springs, a 147-year-old resort that offers clothing-optional bathing in mineral water.

Owner Richard Miller said he and 15 employees had to flee the property, which was closed on Sunday for 12 days of maintenance.

"It is in jeopardy," Miller said. "There's fire surrounding it."

But he was confident the California Department of Forestry would protect the retreat, which includes a stucco hotel built in 1910 and nine homes.

"Wilbur is a charmed and magical place and it has all the luck," Miller said.

Two firefighters suffered minor injuries while working the blaze in triple-digit temperatures.

Suzann Thompson, who works the front desk at Clear Lake Cottages and Marina, said the fires decimated business throughout the area. Clear Lake, the biggest lake in California, is a popular tourist attraction.

"It's really a catastrophe," she said. (Additional reporting by Ronnie Cohen in San Francisco; Laura Zuckerman in Salmon, Idaho; Teresa Carson in Portland; and Dan Whitcomb in Los Angeles; Writing by Dan Whitcomb and Mary Slosson; Editing by Cynthia Johnston, Bill Trott and Lisa Shumaker)
1251. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Parts of C FL got absolutely BLASTED yesterday.

This is from Cape Canaveral yesterday.


This is from Downtown Orlando just as the storms rolled in.


Lightning pic from Edgwater
..local met yesterday said florida got 3000 lighning strikes in ..get this 20 minutes..geez
Quoting Neapolitan:
93L's winds are up to 30 knots, but the pressure is still ungainly:

AL, 93, 2012081512, , BEST, 0, 276N, 545W, 30, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


93L is embedded within an area of very high pressures.
1254. LargoFl
..............so far so good here on the coast,hopefully today we get some rain..been going around us all week and nothing here by me
1255. hydrus
US population hits maths milestone


8/14/12 TUE

Figuring out the number of American residents got as easy as pi on Tuesday (local time) as the United States touched a rare mathematical and demographic milestone.

The Census Bureau said that the United States reached 314,159,265 residents, or the mathematical ratio pi times 100 million, shortly after 2.29 pm.

Pi, or 3.14159265, is the mathematical constant that is the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. It often is approximated as 22/7.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


93L is embedded within an area of very high pressures.
developing.though
sorry for this elementary question but does this image show the MJO coming in the atlantic?
Quoting hydrus:
1259. LargoFl
Just imagine..in YOUR hometown..600,000 people coming into it..............thats what WE here in the tampa bay area are starting to see already for the repub convention..geez, just imagine what the traffic is going to be like?...but the local businesses will be joyful and happy..well 12 days and it starts
1260. SLINKY
Quoting Wunderwood:
Bastardi is still forecasting potential trouble for the Southeast.


No fan of JB myself. What time frame is he giving for this potential event?
1219 Neapolitan: 93L's winds are up to 30 knots, but the pressure is still ungainly
AL, 93, 2012081512, , BEST, 0, 276N, 545W, 30, 1013, LO


Began its predicted recurve within the last 12hours as it changed from a TropicalWave to a L0w
MaxSusWinds went up by 5knots, but 4.2knots of that was from an increase in travel-speed.

BDA is Bermuda :: CVU is Corvu,Azores
One of the 6Z 384HR
Largo i think your 600,000 number is a little on the high side for the RNC maybe more like 16,000 visitors.
1264. Patrap
600K..?

Me tinks dats a er, tad High.

The 2012 Republican National Convention will be held at the Tampa Bay Times Forum August 27-30, 2012.

Organized and managed by the Committee on Arrangements (COA) of the Republican National Committee (RNC), the convention will host 2,286 delegates and 2,125 alternate delegates from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and five territories.

Nearly 150 staffers will eventually live, dine and shop in the Tampa Bay area in preparation for the 2012 Republican National Convention. And roughly 50,000 people are expected to visit the Tampa Bay area during the gathering.
1265. LargoFl
...............No invests in the gulf so far
1266. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
600K..?

Me tinks dats a er, tad High.

The 2012 Republican National Convention will be held at the Tampa Bay Times Forum August 27-30, 2012.

Organized and managed by the Committee on Arrangements (COA) of the Republican National Committee (RNC), the convention will host 2,286 delegates and 2,125 alternate delegates from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and five territories.
...yes i thought so too, until the papers started adding the protesters into the mix...going to be something to watch..from afar lol
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looks like 93L got it's European Visa stamped last night. Poor fellow just missed the closing ceremonies and they were worried about security over there. Top notch I tell ya.

It want's to catch the Paralympics.
Quoting Patrap:
600K..?

Me tinks dats a er, tad High.

The 2012 Republican National Convention will be held at the Tampa Bay Times Forum August 27-30, 2012.

Organized and managed by the Committee on Arrangements (COA) of the Republican National Committee (RNC), the convention will host 2,286 delegates and 2,125 alternate delegates from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and five territories.

Nearly 150 staffers will eventually live, dine and shop in the Tampa Bay area in preparation for the 2012 Republican National Convention. And roughly 50,000 people are expected to visit the Tampa Bay area during the gathering.
hookers.flocking.to.the.town
Quoting angelafritz:
Dry air seems to be the name of the game this year in the Atlantic, huh.

Yes, no waves no matter how impressive just dont seem to develop. they dry out apon hitting the water.
Quoting SLINKY:


No fan of JB myself. What time frame is he giving for this potential event?


He said the pattern will get more "interesting" 8/20 - 9/5.. We'll see
that wave to exit the african coast in 24 hrs moves south of the cv islands into an area elongated 850mb vorticity.
Quoting weaverwxman:
Largo i think your 600,000 number is a little on the high side for the RNC maybe more like 16,000 visitors.
I know, Boston got the DNC in 04, they literally told everyone to stay home to not snarl traffic.
wave over central africa seems to follow the same track. shear is in the acceptable range but what could be an impediment to early development, is the marginal sst and dry air in the catl
Quoting LargoFl:
...............No invests in the gulf so far

Its suppose to happen this weekend...not right now!! lol
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
US population hits maths milestone


8/14/12 TUE

Figuring out the number of American residents got as easy as pi on Tuesday (local time) as the United States touched a rare mathematical and demographic milestone.

The Census Bureau said that the United States reached 314,159,265 residents, or the mathematical ratio pi times 100 million, shortly after 2.29 pm.

Pi, or 3.14159265, is the mathematical constant that is the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. It often is approximated as 22/7.
It's got to be killing Nea that he didn't find this factoid first:)
Nice find Georgia.
.

1277. icmoore
Quoting weaverwxman:
Largo i think your 600,000 number is a little on the high side for the RNC maybe more like 16,000 visitors.


I have read between 50,000 and 60,000 estimated in various articles for the last couple of months.
also watching an area near 9n 33w which looks insignificant at the moment. the area has moderate 700mb, 850mb and 500mb vorticity levels. it is also in a good shear enviroment. will monitor this area the next few hrs for signs of organisation.
Great read, Dr. Masters.
Good Morning Everyone! Rain on the Rio Grande AND continental Polar air. :)


PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
928 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 19 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 22 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/15 ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAY 3...TRANSITIONING TO THE 00Z/15 ECENS MEAN BY
DAY 5 TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES IN SYNOPTIC DETAILS
AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE THAN A DAY AGO...THOUGH THE 00Z/15
GFS STILL BRINGS A TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RAINFALL NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERSECTS THE POLAR FRONT
LODGED INTO THE REGION.


WITH CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THE
COOLEST...DRIEST CONDITIONS IN MANY WEEKS THERE.
Yes code red in the Atlantic.Unfortunately it looks like land will be affected in the process.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes code red in the Atlantic.Unfortunately it looks like land will be affected in the process.

What do you mean? It's 93L, it won't meet land for at least a few days. If you're talking about ex-TD 7, it has a 0% chance.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

What do you mean? It's 93L, it won't meet land for at least a few days. If you're talking about ex-TD 7, it has a 0% chance.

Azores
Good Morning Everyone. I'm kinda confused a little. Ok here we go maybe someone can clarify this up for me.
I read where they went up with the amount of storms we might get this year. But what I'm confused about is El nino is here or fixing to be and with the cooling of the waters and all if I'm reading that right,how can we have more storms. I mean right know we have 93l but it's heading out to sea. It seems like the dust is gonna kill everything. also some folks talking about the MJO isn't going to be much of one know, so how can we get more storms? What is there thinking? Do they possible see something going on further down the road than we do? I'm just down right a little confused.

sheri
1285. ncstorm
the 06z Nogaps at 180 hours
I know y'all have better models than I but on the CMC it showed something moving toward the east coast at the end of the run. The EURO has something out there too but in a different place.

1287. icmoore
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Parts of C FL got absolutely BLASTED yesterday.

This is from Cape Canaveral yesterday.


This is from Downtown Orlando just as the storms rolled in.


Lightning pic from Edgwater


Great pictures! That line of storms sure had the radar lit up yesterday!
1288. ncstorm
the 00z CMC..hour 240


Quoting ncstorm:
the 00z CMC..hour 240


There it is. Lol.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

What do you mean? It's 93L, it won't meet land for at least a few days. If you're talking about ex-TD 7, it has a 0% chance.
The Azores...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
US population hits maths milestone


8/14/12 TUE

Figuring out the number of American residents got as easy as pi on Tuesday (local time) as the United States touched a rare mathematical and demographic milestone.

The Census Bureau said that the United States reached 314,159,265 residents, or the mathematical ratio pi times 100 million, shortly after 2.29 pm.

Pi, or 3.14159265, is the mathematical constant that is the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. It often is approximated as 22/7.
Interesting!
Quoting ncstorm:
the 06z Nogaps at 180 hours
Looks like we currently have model support for our fat wave over Africa that all ready has a legacy of being Deadly and causing damage.Hopefully it won't continue the same for the Caribbean U.S and Bermuda?.
Quoting stoormfury:
wave over central africa seems to follow the same track. shear is in the acceptable range but what could be an impediment to early development, is the marginal sst and dry air in the catl

It's true the CATL is dry but it's moving west and the EATL is very moist with a new t-wave set to emerge in the next few days.


Loop
Quoting CosmicEvents:
It's got to be killing Nea that he didn't find this factoid first:)
Nice find Georgia.
Then it will go back down to 314,159,264. LOL
1295. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
600K..?

Me tinks dats a er, tad High.

The 2012 Republican National Convention will be held at the Tampa Bay Times Forum August 27-30, 2012.

Organized and managed by the Committee on Arrangements (COA) of the Republican National Committee (RNC), the convention will host 2,286 delegates and 2,125 alternate delegates from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and five territories.

Nearly 150 staffers will eventually live, dine and shop in the Tampa Bay area in preparation for the 2012 Republican National Convention. And roughly 50,000 people are expected to visit the Tampa Bay area during the gathering.


pat who has the best shrimp poboy in nola???
1296. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like we currently have model support for our fat wave over Africa that all ready has a legacy of being Deadly and causing damage.Hopefully it won't continue the same for the Caribbean U.S and Bermuda?.


Lets hope not:(
could be but that's what everyone thought about Gordon. I guess with less dry air and more possible moisture, a big storm could form but too early to tell.
Quoting ncstorm:


Lets hope not:(
Quoting ncstorm:


Lets hope not:(
If this becomes Helene Isaac will likely become that weak storm in the Gulf.Helene better not raise hell.Lol.
1299. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes code red in the Atlantic.Unfortunately it looks like land will be affected in the process.


From what I can tell the front currently moving into the British Isle is to stall for at least a week and its there that 93L will interact with it ....going to be a extremely wet week ahead ....
1300. ncstorm
The GFS precip for Mexico/Texas through 240 hours


HPC totals for the next 5 days
93L is definitely going to become TD8, perhaps even Gordon, later today. Unless something cataclysmic happens to its circulation. It looks like it's getting its act together rather quickly.
For numbers people...

Link
1303. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
If this becomes Helene Isaac will likely become that weak storm in the Gulf.Helene better not raise hell.Lol.


the name Helene sounds like it going to be bad..a woman and her fury is not to be played with..
1304. Patrap
....Tie dye on the highway
See the garlands in your hair
If you're goin' my way, come along
What a beautiful sky at we just have to stop and stare
See the beautiful colours fill the air


1305. Estsurf
Can someone post a link to the forecast model pages that you use, like the ones ncstorm posts? Thx
93L seems to be TS status. there appears to be a very small cdo, which at times gives the impression of a tiny pjnhole eye
I am sorry to say but the GFS 06Z run has backed off on development in the GOM/BOC.
Loop

Check out the Low in Canada
1308. Patrap
Sorry?

pppfth,



I'm elated.
1309. bappit
Despite all the talk about MJO on this blog, it appears that it is kind of weak currently. See the bottom right corner of this graph going back to 2005.Link.

I like that this graph goes back a few years. It gives a sense of the range of amplitudes.
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
With eyes on Tampa at the end of the month, here is a little #Tampa #hurricane history from Dr. Jeff Masters: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=2185 #GOP2012
Quoting ncstorm:


the name Helene sounds like it going to be bad..a woman and her fury is not to be played with..
And if it had another L in it you could find hell.Lol.We haven't had a interesting "H" storm since Hugo all though Hanna did cause a large amount of deaths and I bet she was a pest to track...
Seems to me a few fronts/troughs pushing into the Atlantic takes care of the dry air this time of year.
Weakening/strengthening Bermuda high pressure also helps with the substinence.
More than likely it was a hiccup in the 6z gfs.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The Azores...

I said a few days. In my opinion, the Azores won't affect development that much.
Quoting weaverwxman:
Largo i think your 600,000 number is a little on the high side for the RNC maybe more like 16,000 visitors.



Or maybe even 6,000. Only about 2,000 delegates and alternates.
1316. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
With eyes on Tampa at the end of the month, here is a little #Tampa #hurricane history from Dr. Jeff Masters: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=2185 #GOP2012


cantore lurks in here often...
Quoting yoboi:


cantore lurks in here often...

And he is very welcome to also. If Mr Cantore is here, he can follow me on Tweeter.... @gsdavo1975
1318. ncstorm
Quoting Estsurf:
Can someone post a link to the forecast model pages that you use, like the ones ncstorm posts? Thx


Link
Quoting bappit:
Despite all the talk about MJO on this blog, it appears that it is kind of weak currently. See the bottom right corner of this graph going back to 2005.Link.

I like that this graph goes back a few years. It gives a sense of the range of amplitudes.
Not strong yet, but this ensemble shows it getting stronger towards the end of the month, I think.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I said a few days. In my opinion, that won't affect development that much.
When I meant that it looks like land will be affected in the process is that eventually 93L will affect land.
Quoting washingtonian115:
When I meant that it looks like land will be affected in the process is that eventually 93L will affect land.

Oh, why didn't you say so? Because you said "Code red" and "land" at the same time, I was confused. I'm sorry for the misunderstanding.
Of course, 93L will affect the Azores eventually.
Quoting washingtonian115:
When I meant that it looks like land will be affected in the process is that eventually 93L will affect land.


Quoting Patrap:
....Tie dye on the highway
See the garlands in your hair
If you're goin' my way, come along
What a beautiful sky at we just have to stop and stare
See the beautiful colours fill the air




Robert Plant
1324. bappit
Here's the CPC tropical hazards outlook issued yesterday.

Looks like it's organizing to me. We could see a special advisory/renumber soon. Either that, or a ~100% percentage at 2pm with Tropical Depression Eight at 5pm.

State of the Climate
Global Analysis
July 2012
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center

Arctic sea ice is 2nd lowest July extent on record Link
Quoting AussieStorm:



112 knots?! That's a borderline Category 4.

Good thing that's probably overdone...for the Azores at least.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

112 knots?! That's a borderline Category 4.

Good thing that's probably overdone...for the Azores at least.

We'll have to wait and see, won't we. I think a Cat 1 or 2 don't know about a Cat 4.
Interesting that the models try to take future Gordon up to a hurricane.Maybe it won't be a weak storm after all?.Looks like this will be another season where conditions are more favorable outside of the MDR.
Quoting AussieStorm:
State of the Climate
Global Analysis
July 2012
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center

Arctic sea ice is 2nd lowest July extent on record Link


It's fallen off since.


They are calling that Arctic storm beginning of Aug that busted so much up ice The Great Arctic Storm of 2012. Before & after.
1284. catastropheadjuster: I read where they went up with the amount of storms we might get this year. But what I'm confused about is El nino is here or fixing to be and with the cooling of the waters and all if I'm reading that right,how can we have more storms? I mean right know we have 93l but it's heading out to sea.
It seems like the dust is gonna kill everything. Also some folks talking about the MJO isn't going to be much of one know, so how can we get more storms?
What is their thinking? Do they possibly see something going on further down the road than we do? I'm just down right a little confused.


Meh, the Season is confused, and the experts are confuzzled.

A very weak ElNino arrived last week, but there's a month-or-two time-lag before the Atlantic feels it.
Another confounding factor is that the EastPacific offa Mexico is relatively cooler than expected for a standard ElNino. And it's the warmer EastPacific that sends the shear over the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the lowerNorthAtlantic.
The Gulf, the Caribbean, and the NorthAtlantic haven't cooled.

SAL dust? Should lessen with the seasonally-expected rain blobs traversing NorthAfrica.

Their thinking? "We screwed up in not predicting the May and June TropicalStorms. Since we said that the Season wouldn't begin until August, then adding those 4 early TCs to our original prediction would mean that our SeasonTotal numbers hafta go up." And NOTHING more.

MJO? Ernesto and TD.7 popped up when the MJO sucked the max-most. So any improvement in uplift should help cyclogenesis.
1336. fredwx
More on the 1921 and 1848 Tampa Hurricanes

1921 Tampa Hurricane


The Great Tampa Gale of 1848