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July 2012: hottest month in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:16 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

During the 1930s, a series of epic heat waves gripped the U.S., drying up the soil in an unprecedented drought that brought about the great Dust Bowl. The most intense heat hit during July 1936, which set a record for hottest month in U.S. history that stood for 76 years. That iconic record has now fallen, bested by 0.2°F during July 2012, which is now the hottest month in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) this week. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - July, and for the 12-month period August 2011 - July 2012. Twenty-four states were record warm for that 12-month period, and an additional twenty states were top-ten warm. The past fourteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring. The summer of 2012 is on pace to be a top-five warmest summer on record, and could beat the summer of 1936 as the warmest summer in U.S. history.


Figure 1. When the temperature peaked at an all-time high of 108° in Minneapolis, Minnesota on July 14, 1936, the want-ad staff at the 'St. Paul Daily News' was provided with 400 pounds of ice and two electric fans to cool the air in the press room. Photo from the Minnesota Historical Society.


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperature, by month, for 2012 (red), compared to the other 117 years on record for the contiguous U.S., with the five ultimately warmest years (orange) and five ultimately coolest years (blue) noted. The 2012 data are still preliminary. The year-to-date period of January - July was the warmest on record by a huge margin--1.0°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 3. For the fourth consecutive month, a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period was set in July 2012. Five of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - July period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 46% during the year-to-date January - July period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first seven months of 2012, and 74% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 16th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day heavy precipitation events were the 24th greatest in the 103-year record.


Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - July shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first seven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Little change to the U.S. drought during the past week
The great U.S. drought of 2012 remained about the same size and intensity over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, August 9. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought dropped slightly, from 63% to 62%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought stayed constant at 46%. The area of the country in the worst drought categories (extreme to exceptional drought) doubled from 10 percent last month to 22 percent this month. The extreme dryness and excessive heat devastated crops and livestock from the Great Plains to Midwest. During July, the area of the U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought was 57%, ranking as the 5th largest drought in U.S. history:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Dec 1939, 60%
3) Jul 1954, 60%
4) Dec 1956, 58%
5) Jul 2012, 57%



Video 1. This is Not Cool: Peter Sinclair's July 2012 video from the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media couples historical footage with contemporary clips and news segments. In one of the latter, for instance, NBC anchor Brian Williams opens the network’s flagship news program with the words: “It’s now official. We are living in one of the worst droughts of the past 100 years.” NASA scientist James Hansen is featured testifying about risks of “extreme droughts” in the nation’s breadbasket, and I'm featured in a few clips talking about the drought of 2012.

I'll have a new post by noon Saturday.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post looking back at the great Heat Wave of July 1936.

Jeff Masters

Heat Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting LargoFl:
...................are they Very sure..that blob below Cuba is NOT going to develop? it has been there for over a week now and sure doesnt look like its weakening any, and its sending lots of rain northward towards florida and the east coast huh
I have seen several ULL transition down to the surface....just doesn't seem like this one wants to. Yet
Quoting ryang:
Anyone else from Barbados on here right now?


Morning, I'm here
Quoting rmdjoe1954:
NHC dissipates TD7 in a few days and our yellow blog is down to 20%.

And the long range GFS isn't showing anything in the way of development. So what am I supposed to do with the rest of my summer now!!!!!!

Link


Hopefully your summer is not dependent on the Tropics.
Quoting RTSplayer:
From what Jeff Morrow just said, TD7 should probably be downgraded back to a mere "Invest".

It seems the strongest winds the HH found was like 17mph...at least at the time he did the Tropical Update...

That's pathetic. That's not even as strong as the trade winds and steering currents.
d are stronger that 17MPH strongest winds that was found so far was around I think it was 38kt still waiting for HH to fly in the NE quad
Quoting pottery:

Thanks.

Good Barbados weather site--

brohavwx.com

check it out.


I hope someday to get there, have a great great uncle in St. Thomas. By the time I might ever get there he will be long gone. :(
Administration,
There is a troll masquerading under rmdjoe1954.
Please delete this troll.
Found a few SSW winds near the original fix point but boy is the wind field ever small and weak. Not sure if the NHC will hold this at TD status for long.

Pressure at "center" 1012 mbs
1508. Msdrown
Quoting LargoFl:
yes it seems like its been raining up there for a month or more,going to be there all day i guess once again, some flash flood warnings around new orleans again


Yes all day. Last night at 11pm the local mets said the front dipping down from the N the last two days was extending down into the GOM a ways but it would be gone by the afternoon. This morning they changed that to Sunday for it to back off. So that means yes all day/night and into Sunday.

On another note I noticed that blob off of Miami is moving NE and the one S of Cuba is not going anywhere. I guess that is a good sign for the GOM.
I am am a long-time lurker on here and this is my first post. I wanted to thank you all for the time and effort you put into this blog. I work for FEMA as a Disaster Reservist. When I hear something is coming down the pipe, my first stop is Wunderground and Dr. Master's blog. I spend so much time on here, I feel like I know you all personally!

Again...THANK YOU ALL!!!!!!
1510. ryang
Quoting barbadosjulie:


Morning, I'm here


Morning...looking like some squally weather here today.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
d are stronger that 17MPH strongest winds that was found so far was around I think it was 38kt still waiting for HH to fly in the NE quad


Ok. 38kts is about 43mph, so that would make it a TS...if it's good data.



I wonder what's the deal with that big blob forming a good ways to the SW of the storm?
1512. LargoFl
Quoting Abacosurf:
I have seen several ULL transition down to the surface....just doesn't seem like this one wants to. Yet
.its sure something to watch, it sure doesnt want to go away huh
1513. LargoFl
Quoting Stormbugn:
I am am a long-time lurker on here and this is my first post. I wanted to thank you all for the time and effort you put into this blog. I work for FEMA as a Disaster Reservist. When I hear something is coming down the pipe, my first stop is Wunderground and Dr. Master's blog. I spend so much time on here, I feel like I know you all personally!

Again...THANK YOU ALL!!!!!!
,,TY and welcome
Quoting rmdjoe1954:
Scats are a very reliable analytical tool. While I agree that HH obs are the best you should not simply dismiss the Oscat pass from last night because it does not support your own conclusions.


Troll. Go away. Be a man and try to be yourself.
Storm is being robbed by the blob.

The blob has stronger convection than the TD.
1516. LargoFl
Quoting Msdrown:


Yes all day. Last night at 11pm the local mets said the front dipping down from the N the last two days was extending down into the GOM a ways but it would be gone by the afternoon. This morning they changed that to Sunday for it to back off. So that means yes all day/night and into Sunday.

On another note I noticed that blob off of Miami is moving NE and the one S of Cuba is not going anywhere. I guess that is a good sign for the GOM.
yes for the weekend maybe thru tuesday we are ok in the gulf..for now gee
Hmm... in contrast to observations, ADT is 3.3 for TD 7.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2012 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 14:05:10 N Lon : 57:15:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 999.5mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.3

What is that south of cuba???
Link
1519. LargoFl
1520. pottery
Quoting barbadosjulie:


Morning, I'm here

Prepare for some very heavy rain !
1521. LemieT
Quoting barbadosjulie:


Morning, I'm here


I'm on as well. Another round of phantom weather it seems. Our action has been mediocre this year.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Storm is being robbed by the blob.

The blob has stronger convection than the TD.


I wonder what the maximum annual erosion rates are in Panama?

They get hammered by every nearly wave of convection coming through the ITCZ, and what is going through there now was massive "greens" on the Funktop, especially about 2 hours ago.

All that water has to go somewhere...
Quoting gordydunnot:
They may have to post the national guard to protect that corn or some watch dogs/ corn dogs.


How fast are we from Food Rationing? I guess we are not far from the revival of Victory Gardens.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


How far are we from Food Rationing? I guess we are not far from the revival of Victory Gardens.
1526. LargoFl
gee yet another warning for new Orleans..must be pouring non stop there....patrap you ok there?.................BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
755 AM CDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DENHAM SPRINGS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 752 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALKER...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
DENHAM SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LIVINGSTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.



LAT...LON 3053 9098 3054 9072 3036 9065 3040 9096



CAB
Quoting PcolaSurf182:



Looks like another soggy day here in Pensacola. What a change from last summer right?


Truly a monsoon summer in the Panhandle. So wet we have toadstools growing in our sandy soil...
What is that south of cuba???
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that south of cuba???
Link


very weak area of low pressure
1530. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that south of cuba???
..watching it like a hawk, been there all week or more, its Not going away either
I guess I will just wait to see what the NHC makes of the HH obs but to my eye they show a system that is very close to being open and very weak.
1532. LargoFl
must be alot of flooding there.................ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
751 AM CDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
WEST CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 747 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 4 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE YOUNGSVILLE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH UP TO TWO ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ABBEVILLE...AVERY ISLAND...JEANERETTE...LAFAYETTE...NEW IBERIA...
ST. MARTINVILLE...ACADIANA REGIONAL AIRPORT...BALDWIN...
BROUSSARD...CADE...COTEAU...DELCAMBRE...ERATH...GL ENCOE...HENRY...
JEFFERSON ISLAND...LAKE FAUSSE POINTE...LOREAUVILLE...LYDIA...
MAURICE...MEAUX...SORREL AND YOUNGSVILLE.

LEGEND CREEK ROAD IN YOUNGSVILLE HAS BEEN REPORTED TO BE INUNDATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.



LAT...LON 2977 9188 2982 9184 2982 9188 2981 9192
2982 9197 2980 9197 2979 9198 2977 9202
2977 9211 3006 9224 3022 9202 3017 9169
2976 9152



SWEENEY
1533. Msdrown
Quoting RTSplayer:
I wonder what the maximum annual erosion rates are in Panama?

They get hammered by every nearly wave of convection coming through the ITCZ, and what is going through there now was massive "greens" on the Funktop, especially about 2 hours ago.

All that water has to go somewhere...


Spent some time there and Rain is the norm except during the winter which is usually dry season. When it rains there as you suggest because it is very hilly/mountainy in minuets you can have white water rivers where there was nothing. Waterfalls where there wasn't even a trickle. But it does drain off quickly. All of the water around the coast lines in the PAC or Carib will turn brown. Even the Canal will do that. Erosion rate do not remember.
94E...partially associated with the remains of Ernesto...has maximum sustained winds of 30 knots and minimum pressure of 1002 mb (kinda low for a Atlantic TD)
Quoting LemieT:


I'm on as well. Another round of phantom weather it seems. Our action has been mediocre this year.



Morning Lemmie, Ryan & Julie guess we're going to get some showers today? any idea when the TD will pass?
1537. LargoFl
1538. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Chris landsea said that The 1926 Miami Hurricane may have been the largest hurricane ever ti strike the U.S.. Man do I wish we had satellites from 1900 on....Good morning ancient one.


Hello.
Youngsville Louisiana has gotten 4 inches of rain this morning
The low pressure south of cuba is that what CMC had going up to S FL as TD or TS???
Quoting Redbull77:
Youngsville Louisiana has gotten 4 inches of rain this morning


welcome to ze blog
1542. LargoFl
Quoting Redbull77:
Youngsville Louisiana has gotten 4 inches of rain this morning
yes and more to come, stay safe over there folks, flooding is going to be a problem there
by the looks of things no Gordon today. may have to look towards Africa for the next cyclone
1544. Msdrown
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


How fast are we from Food Rationing? I guess we are not far from the revival of Victory Gardens.


Already there on the victory gardens in my area for four yrs now. Food scares and high prices started it an now this drought. We catch rain water for the crops and for now unlike CO/Ut we can leagly do that.
Quoting Grothar:


Hello.


Mownin!
1546. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The low pressure south of cuba is that what CMC had going up to S FL as TD or TS???
it very well could be, we'll see
Quoting RTSplayer:


Ok. 38kts is about 43mph, so that would make it a TS...if it's good data.



I wonder what's the deal with that big blob forming a good ways to the SW of the storm?

if anything I say still 35MPH

Quoting RTSplayer:
Storm is being robbed by the blob.

The blob has stronger convection than the TD.

nah I think that the blob SW of TD7 will soon shoot towards the TD giving it more convection

huh kinda reminds me of Ernesto when it was in that same place it had a little blob to its SW too and that blob was show a circulation for the blob and bearly anything for Ernesto but the blob got sucked into Ernesto before it entered the Caribbean I think the same maybe happening with TD7

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that south of cuba???
Link


nothing just a blow up from the ULL
Quoting LargoFl:
yes and more to come, stay safe over there folks, flooding is going to be a problem there


especially with the zmount of rain we have had the past twwo days
Another sign of a system that is starting to open up.
The vort has now become very elongated to the SW

Good morning. Another boringly normal day here. And that's ok with me. :)



Mostly Cloudy
81°
27°C
Humidity94%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer29.94 in
Dewpoint79°F (26°C)
Visibility7.00 mi
Heat Index89°F (32°C)

1551. LargoFl
............................we could use a few showers here by me, been very humid and Hot..but no rain
1552. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The low pressure south of cuba is that what CMC had going up to S FL as TD or TS???

there is no low pressure system S of cuba the only thing a an ULL
Do we have a Radar from cuba
That HH is sure searching around pretty hard near the original apparent center.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Do we have a Radar from cuba

yes we do cuba had radar I'll get the link to you as soon as possible
1557. LargoFl
pick your area for the forecast..................
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT SAT AUG 11 2012

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MI/ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TURNS SOUTHEAST AND AFFECTS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WHILE THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER
LOW TODAY...SEVERAL AREAS MAY SEE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NORTHEAST...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FEWER CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST POCKETS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LATER TODAY SUGGEST EARLY
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NY INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST OH
APPROACHES THE REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL FOR
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY POSE A RISK OF A LOCALLY GUSTY OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF NY WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

...VA/CAROLINAS...
12Z RAOBS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING SC/NC/VA. BROKEN CLOUDS WILL SLOW THE
DAYTIME HEATING PROCESS...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...PROVIDING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW SUGGESTS SOME RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER
CELLS TODAY. CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED WHICH COULD WARRANT
AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
A RATHER STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS AND EASTERN CO...RESULTING IN STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
WITH AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S.
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
WY/CO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN SD/NEB/KS DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THIS REGION. IF THIS TREND IS
CORRECT...THE THREAT OF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND A MORE ORGANIZED
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE. THIS AREA WILL ALSO
BE MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE.

...SWRN AZ/SERN CA...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ. RATHER STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS AFTER DARK. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

..HART/DEAN.. 08/11/2012
Alright i shall be back later to entertain... for now i must eat and go for a boat ride.... horrible weather but who cares
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

there is no low pressure system S of cuba the only thing a an ULL
Hmmm. Well it is a low. Just at the wrong level.
Quoting kmanislander:
That HH is sure searching around pretty hard near the original apparent center.


weak yeah open well don't know yet maybe maybe not hmm what if it opens and then closes back
Quoting Abacosurf:
Hmmm. Well it is a low. Just at the wrong level.

lol yeah
1562. LargoFl
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


weak yeah open well don't know yet maybe maybe not hmm what if it opens and then closes back


A system can open and close several times.The infamous Dolly did that at least 3 times. It was clearly open around 0300 UTC last night and based upon what I am seeing now the NHC may downgrade soon.
It looks really scrappy on satellite.
1564. Msdrown
Quoting LargoFl:


Thats from yesterday Largo, check the date and time.
1565. LargoFl
THX!:)
Quoting LargoFl:
THX!:)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes we do cuba had radar I'll get the link to you as soon as possible
1568. Msdrown
Quoting LargoFl:


Hey Largo, how far off is 7 from Ernestos track, do you know???
1569. LargoFl
Quoting Msdrown:


Thats from yesterday Largo, check the date and time.
..yes i see that thanks..its all they posted so far down there
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
THX!:)


I just pulled up Cuban radar and got a red "x".

Perhaps it is offline now
T numbers are still running too high:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2012 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 14:05:52 N Lon : 57:26:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 999.5mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 2.8 2.3
1572. LargoFl
Quoting Msdrown:


Hey Largo, how far off is 7 from Ernestos track, do you know???
so far looks pretty much the same at least for now, several models put it a tad more northward nearing cuba..we'll see
1573. LargoFl
Quoting kmanislander:


I just pulled up Cuban radar and got a red "x".

Perhaps it is offline now
..yes same here all they have is yesterdays
Kmanislander, is that scrappy, or crappy?:)(post 1563)
1575. LargoFl
..folks notice..off the east coast..more Blue today, we need to watch that area
This HH mission is sure working hard trying to pin down a center, no question about that. It's going to be a real close call on this one. Circling around again.
1577. ncstorm
look at those blobs off the SE coast


1578. Msdrown
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes i see that thanks..its all they posted so far down there


Yea, yesterday when I asked for the Cuba Radar and you sent me that and someone else gave me the link. I went there and brought up several different Radar sites and everyone of them were hours behind. They probably only post that short file once a day and its always old news. I was interested because you and me have been concerned about that almost stationary blob so I wanted to compare the closest radar with the satilites. Did't help so I made the comparison with your Miami radar and the satititles which showed me differences.
Quoting originalLT:
Kamanislander, is that scrappy, or crappy?:)(post 1563)


Scrappy is what you get when a system looks like crap and may be bound for the scrap heap LOL
1580. LargoFl
well thats it for me, time to do the weekend lawn cutting etc..have a great day folks..stay safe out there
Quoting barbados246:



Morning Lemmie, Ryan & Julie guess we're going to get some showers today? any idea when the TD will pass?


Morning Barbados246, I'm guessing we could start to see something about 11am. Not entirely sure what that something is though as there are all sorts of reports.

Trinidad is completely flooded out right now, its reported about 3" of rain so far. Vehicles under water etc
Any updates on the enormous gash in the sun? I've really come to love the sun, electricity, water, and food over the years. Would hate to go without them.
1584. Msdrown
Quoting kmanislander:


I just pulled up Cuban radar and got a red "x".

Perhaps it is offline now



I think they only give you a small file once a day and not a constant up date. When it does come up check the date and the running clock top right. You will see a very limited time span.
Quoting lovemamatus:
Any updates on the enormous gash in the sun? I've really come to love the sun, electricity, water, and food over the years. Would hate to go without them.


Gash? Where? Link

Nothing mentioned on Spaceweather.
Quoting Msdrown:



I think they only give you a small file once a day and not a constant up date. When it does come up check the date and the running clock top right. You will see a very limited time span.


This is what I get from Cuba Radar
1587. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:
Another sign of a system that is starting to open up.
The vort has now become very elongated to the SW

Yes. Looking very disorganized. What are your thought about the activity in the Western Caribbean.?
1588. Msdrown
Quoting AussieStorm:
Evening all.....

the Hurricane Hunters are like this with TD-7


Also in other news.
Region: NORTHWESTERN IRAN
Geographic coordinates: 38.324N, 46.759E
Magnitude: 6.4 Mwp
Depth: 9 km
Universal Time (UTC): 11 Aug 2012 12:34:35
Time near the Epicenter: 11 Aug 2012 16:04:35
Local standard time in your area: 11 Aug 2012 12:34:35

Location with respect to nearby cities:
48 km (30 miles) NE (56 degrees) of Tabriz, Iran


Thats funny.
1589. DDR
Good morning
Major flooding and land slips in north western Trinidad after 2 hours of heavy rains.

Met office
Trinidad and to a lesser extent Tobago have been
experiencing cloudy to overcast conditions with
showers and thundershowers over the last few
hours. This is attributed to an active Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ.
This inclement weather is expected to persist
throughout the day over both islands with showers
and thundershowers as well as periods of rain.
Some improvement is expected by this evening.



Showers and thundershowers can be moderate to
heavy and may be accompanied by gusty winds and
street/flash flooding. There is also the
possibility of landslides/landslips. Seas can
become choppy in the vicinity of thundershowers.

Citizens are advised to be vigilant and cautious
as they conduct their daily activities given the
forecast conditions. Be alert to electrical
discharges from thundercloud activity.
well it looks like the 1st TD of the season too bust
Quoting Astrometeor:


Gash? Where? Link

Nothing mentioned on Spaceweather.


www.messagetoeagle.com

Patrap posted it last night. It doesnt look good.
1592. Msdrown
Quoting lovemamatus:
Any updates on the enormous gash in the sun? I've really come to love the sun, electricity, water, and food over the years. Would hate to go without them.


Not sure what you mean?? There have been reports lately about solar flares and CME's. Someone on here late last night was talking about this who seemed very knowledgable.
Latest (00Z) CMC ensemble takes the next E Pac storm and drives it N into LA next weekend. Normally, i'd LOL that off, but it is an ensemble...

Link
Quoting Progster:
Latest (00Z) CMC ensemble takes the next E Pac storm and drives it N into LA next weekend. Normally, i'd LOL that off, but it is an ensemble...

Link

That might be Ernesto.
Must be really nice weather out there for them to be flying around at 1100 feet LOL
1597. Msdrown
Quoting AussieStorm:


This is what I get from Cuba Radar


Yea, that proves my point, check the date upper left and the time upper right. This was yesterdays and I checked it periodically through the day and it never changed.
Quoting Msdrown:


Thats funny.


Looked at the USGS page on that too. Wonder what's going on over there...
1599. hydrus
A long way out, but I thought this would be a interesting pattern if it were to evolve.
Quoting Tazmanian:
well it looks like the 1st TD of the season too bust

Shhhhh don't say that. wunderkidcayman will get upset.

Just Joking dude. How is the beautiful Cayman Islands Today?
lol we had imposter on here and i didnt realize...
img src="">

could this be the weak center echo?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
T numbers are still running too high:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2012 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 14:05:52 N Lon : 57:26:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 999.5mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 2.8 2.3



Ugh...

this thing needs to be backed up to an older version. It's horribly over-rating storms this year. It's off by like 10mb and 10mph or more...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That might be Ernesto.


Actually that is Ernesto. Or at least what's left of him.
Quoting RTSplayer:



Ugh...

this thing needs to be backed up to an older version. It's horribly over-rating storms this year. It's off by like 10mb and 10mph or more...


I don't pay any attention to that anymore. Way off
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hurricane Hunters search for TD-07



so more or less like this.....




i dont find that photo vary funny in fac i call that mean too a cat plzs dont re post it
1607. Drakoen
TD 7 is only undergoing the initial onset of shear. Shear should worsen in magnitude as the models forecast for the upper level trough to sink southward even further. Assuming it can suvive that over the next 48 hours it may find better upper level conditions in the central or western Caribbean, but at the moment the eastern Caribbean looks very hostile.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
lol we had imposter on here and i didnt realize...

Who, What, Where, Why, When????
Quoting barbadosjulie:


Morning Barbados246, I'm guessing we could start to see something about 11am. Not entirely sure what that something is though as there are all sorts of reports.

Trinidad is completely flooded out right now, its reported about 3" of rain so far. Vehicles under water etc


Hey Juliet it can be so confusing reading everyones thoughts and still not sure what will happen but i guess thats life and we just have to wait on mother nature to take her course. Its such a lovely day outside its hard to believe we are going to have a rain far less a TD.
Quoting Msdrown:


Not sure what you mean?? There have been reports lately about solar flares and CME's. Someone on here late last night was talking about this who seemed very knowledgable.

We had an M class flare this morning... Not sure if it produced a CME.

\

I think Pat posted this pic last night... Nothing too unusual about it:

Quoting Tazmanian:



i dont find that photo vary funny in fac i call that mean too a cat plzs dont re post it

Taz, I'm sure the cat is fine.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That might be Ernesto.


Yes, maybe. The CMC solution is broadly similar to the 00Z ECMWF ensemble and 00Z NOGAPS deterministic runs, although the latter two take it further NW and kill it in colder waters.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Taz, I'm sure the cat is fine.



so ture
1614. Msdrown
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hurricane Hunters search for TD-07



so more or less like this.....



At least the H/H and this little guy are working it hard you have to give them that. Again Too Funny.
looks like the HH is finding a open wave
Quoting Drakoen:
TD 7 is only undergoing the initial onset of shear. Shear should worsen in magnitude as the models forecast for the upper level trough to sink southward even further. Assuming it can suvive that over the next 48 hours it may find better upper level conditions in the central or western Caribbean, but at the moment the eastern Caribbean looks very hostile.


20 knots max but all in all not too bad. TD7 is really struggling and so is the HH in trying to pin down a center.

1617. Msdrown
Quoting Astrometeor:


Looked at the USGS page on that too. Wonder what's going on over there...



Same thing as usual. They are in a very siesmic area. They have at least one big one routinely but it is usually in remote areas not like this. Or you could get political and something went wrong with there nuke projects.
Quoting lovemamatus:


www.messagetoeagle.com

Patrap posted it last night. It doesnt look good.


Alright, I checked the website.
1. That was from the 5th.
2. They used unprecedented NOT TRUE.
A. Quebec blackout
B. Carrington Event
3. I am very aware of the dangers of a CME impacting the Earth.
Quoting kmanislander:
Must be really nice weather out there for them to be flying around at 1100 feet LOL


Although not "low Level Flying" per se - it probably makes a nice change for them and IMHO they thoroughly deserve a "perk" now and again
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We had an M class flare this morning... Not sure if it produced a CME.

\

I think Pat posted this pic last night... Nothing too unusual about it:



The contention was that the gash had increased 1 million km since Wednesday in size, and could portend an "unprecedented event". Pretty scary stuff.

The Hurricane Hunters are not scheduled to fly into it.
1621. hydrus
Quoting Drakoen:
TD 7 is only undergoing the initial onset of shear. Shear should worsen in magnitude as the models forecast for the upper level trough to sink southward even further. Assuming it can suvive that over the next 48 hours it may find better upper level conditions in the central or western Caribbean, but at the moment the eastern Caribbean looks very hostile.
Yes. This T.D has a good amount of spin to it. Should be interesting to watch. If it makes it to the west side, we will have something to watch. The CMC keeps 07 in the picture nearing or on the Yucatan Peninsula in 144 hours.
Finding S and SE winds now where they previously found SW winds on the first pass down. Opening up.
Quoting Msdrown:



Same thing as usual. They are in a very siesmic area. They have at least one big one routinely but it is usually in remote areas not like this. Or you could get political and something went wrong with there nuke projects.


Don't worry, I won't get political. Just saying.
Not sure if this has been posted yet or not but....

TRMM recently made a nice pass, but TD 7 remains poorly organized. Here is the 37 GHz color, which shows little, if anything, in the way of banding:



And here is the 85 GHz Horizontal, which also shows a disorganized storm:



Not only is it disorganized, but there is very little convection. This disorganized pattern is being confirmed be recon.
1625. Msdrown
Quoting Tazmanian:



i dont find that photo vary funny in fac i call that mean too a cat plzs dont re post it


Not a big cat lover but have been around them a few times and the more playfull types are always getting themselves into these sits. Not sure how that is mean, not trying to anger you.
1626. Grothar
Quoting lovemamatus:


The contention was that the gash had increased 1 million km since Wednesday in size, and could portend an "unprecedented event". Pretty scary stuff.

The Hurricane Hunters are not scheduled to fly into it.


LOL
1627. Msdrown
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We had an M class flare this morning... Not sure if it produced a CME.

\

I think Pat posted this pic last night... Nothing too unusual about it:



I agree, doesn't look bad but I'm going to leave and check it out. Be back later hopefully with some info. Before I go I'll try to find that informative post from early this morning and repost it.
I'll be back for the 11 AM update but the recent download showing more S winds where they previously found SW. I think I have seen enough.
Here is my diatribe for today:

Looking ahead a little bit, and with the exception of TD7 and back to watching the models again, I could not tell you when/when the next system will spin up. Need to remind folks that the rise to the "peak" period is just starting and we will get several more storms between now and October.

As far as the Cape Verde season is concerned (and 80% of all Atlantic hurricanes in any given season form from CV waves), it was off to an earlier start than usual this year but we have seen Ernesto (in the Caribbean) and TD7 fizzle and struggle. The better route to go, rather than hype or downcast this season, is to analize what just happened with both systems.

Essentially, conditions in the Central Atlantic have not been "perfect" for these two systems because most other factors being equal, the dry air over the Central Atlantic, and most importantly, the forward speed of both systems in the Central Atlantic and Eastern-Central Caribbean (average speed of over 20 mph for both systems) did not allow them to stack up a well defined lower level circulation in spite of favorable SST's and moderate wind sheer.

The real question then is; Was this just normal July-Early August climatology factors working against both systems which will get better going into the next several weeks, or, is this going to be the general pattern (dry air and excessive forward speed due to stronger than average trade winds) over the next several weeks?

Climatology says that conditions will become more favorable (in the Central Atlantic and Caribbean) over the next several weeks and with all of the other factors going into the favorable mode, we need to keep a close eye on dry air issues and whether the trade winds slow down.

Also, assuming that the CV season started early, it would not be unreasonable to assume that the "closer to home" period might start a little early too in the Western Caribbean, Gulf, and Eastern Seaboard from frontal remnants due to the Fall like trofs and fronts which have arrived early as well.

My point is, Mother Nature might be a little ahead of the normal schedule this year so we also have to keep a real close eye on the next arrival of the MJO in the Atlantic basin from West to East.
1630. SLU
Quoting kmanislander:
Finding S and SE winds now where they previously found SW winds on the first pass down. Opening up.


Yep i realised that. Should be deactivated at 11am or the NHC might hold on to it for precautionary reasons until it clears the islands
Quoting Msdrown:


I agree, doesn't look bad but I'm going to leave and check it out. Be back later hopefully with some info. Before I go I'll try to find that informative post from early this morning and repost it.
Thank you. Let us know. I really dont want to go to work on Monday.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Not sure if this has been posted yet or not but....

TRMM recently made a nice pass, but TD 7 remains poorly organized. Here is the 37 GHz color, which shows little, if anything, in the way of banding:



And here is the 85 GHz Horizontal, which also shows a disorganized storm:



Not only is it disorganized, but there is very little convection. This disorganized pattern is being confirmed be recon.




1633. SLU
Lowest pressure 1011mb, the center has opened up. The RECON might as well call it a day and save the fuel for when the real action starts.

Wow can't believe the ships model brings TD7 to a hurricane.
1635. sar2401
Quoting lovemamatus:


www.messagetoeagle.com

Patrap posted it last night. It doesnt look good.


It's just an M1 X class flare. They happen at least several times a year, and should occur more frequently through 2013 as we approach a sunspot maxima. We ham radio operators look forward to these flares to give us some rare long distance communications on the upper frequency bands.
as usual no one listened to me 4 days ago when i was saying that td13 would go south and fall apart and that 93l would go fish and fall apart check my post from 4 days ago 1023


Open-wave???
1638. sar2401
Quoting FLASPOTTER:
Wow can't believe the ships model brings TD7 to a hurricane.


That's why most of us don't believe the SHIPS model this year. :)
Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
as usual no one listened to me 4 days ago when i was saying that td13 would go south and fall apart and that 93l would go fish and fall apart check my post from 4 days ago 1023


you mean... TD-07... I have been saying it also.
The blob is easily more powerful than the "TD7".


Stick a fork in it baby, it's done.

LOL.

...at least for now anyway. Probably take a day or two to reorganize, if it ever does at all.
Quoting AussieStorm:


you mean... TD-07... I have been saying it also.
yes td07 my mistake
Quoting FLASPOTTER:
Wow can't believe the ships model brings TD7 to a hurricane.


It's on roids. GFS is best after cyclonesis. NOGAPS is good at predicting Cyclonesis.
1643. sar2401
Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
as usual no one listened to me 4 days ago when i was saying that td13 would go south and fall apart and that 93l would go fish and fall apart check my post from 4 days ago 1023


Why do you think no one listened to you? Several of us have been saying something similar as well. So far, at least, WU isn't giving out gold stars for correct guesses. Now, the real trick is to be right on track and intensity when we get a major. That's a lot tougher than predicting lousy looking storms aren't going to do much.
TD7 officially going to be reclassified as an open wave soon? Was beautiful as a wave about a week ago, many here commented that it was a great looking invest. Been sad and piddly since and not getting any healthier. Wonder if the NHC is second guessing ever upgrading it to TD7?
Good morning everyone! To me it looks as though TD7 has degenerated into an open wave. HH haven't really found a center, and 850 mb vorticity shows an elongated structure which is indicative of an open wave and the LLC falling apart.

1646. SLU
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...SQUALLY WEATHER STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
1647. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
TD7 officially going to be reclassified as an open wave soon? Was beautiful as a wave about a week ago, many here commented that it was a great looking invest. Been sad and piddly since and not getting any healthier. Wonder if the NHC is second guessing ever upgrading it to TD7?


It has a slight chance of reaching TS category before it dies, but I doubt it. I asked several days ago if a TD has ever been reclassified back to an invest (other than the obvious error we had on 07), so it might be interesting
1648. SLU
Quoting SLU:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...SQUALLY WEATHER STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


Can't say I disagree with that.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 111438
TCDAT2

REMNANTS OF SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION
HAS OBSERVED SHARP WIND SHIFTS AT AN ALTITUDE OF 1000 FT...BUT IT
HAS BEEN UNABLE TO LOCATE A PERSISTENT AND WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. THE DEPRESSION HAS THEREFORE DEGENERATED INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
THE WAVE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...AND
ADVISORIES WOULD BE RE-INITIATED IF NEEDED.

THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED
OF 22 KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR
THEIR HARD WORK INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 13.3N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
1936and 1934 had warmer high temperatures, but 2012 had warmer minimum temp (thanks to in large part by UHI)

1652. sar2401
Quoting sar2401:


It has a slight chance of reaching TS category before it dies, but I doubt it. I asked several days ago if a TD has ever been reclassified back to an invest (other than the obvious error we had on 07), so it might be interesting


Never mind! It's now officially "Remnants of TD7". I guess that rules out an invest.
WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR THEIR HARD WORK INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING.

Love how Dr. Avila slips in the human touch to so many of his discussions over the years.........
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
Good morning everyone! To me it looks as though TD7 has degenerated into an open wave. HH haven't really found a center, and 850 mb vorticity shows an elongated structure which is indicative of an open wave and the LLC falling apart.



Oh wow called it. lol
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 58.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

I'm guessing this is the main reason why TD-07 is now an open wave. it's hauling a big time.
1656. SLU
Excerpt:

WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR
THEIR HARD WORK INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING.


1657. SLU
Excerpt:

WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR
THEIR HARD WORK INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING.




TRMM 3B42 Rain Rates (shaded) overlaid with 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (contoured)
Negative 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (Divergence) are cool-colored contours
Positive 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (Convergence) are warm-colored contours
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


Oh wow called it. lol


mmmm a lot of us have been calling it for the last 12hrs.
1660. msphar
Geat news! Dead on the doorstep! I will sleep well tonight.
Quoting Tribucanes:
TD7 officially going to be reclassified as an open wave soon? Was beautiful as a wave about a week ago, many here commented that it was a great looking invest. Been sad and piddly since and not getting any healthier. Wonder if the NHC is second guessing ever upgrading it to TD7?



TD 7 is dead in the water right now
Quoting AussieStorm:
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 58.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

I'm guessing this is the main reason why TD-07 is now an open wave. it's hauling a big time.


Yes that, a little wind shear, and some dry air all contributed.
well advisory is out TD7 is now a tropical wave however they now make it seem that it could regenerate which I think it could and would once it has entered the Central Caribbean

"THE WAVE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...AND
ADVISORIES WOULD BE RE-INITIATED IF NEEDED."

I think that when it does enter the central caribbean it will be in good enough conditions for quick redvelopment and strengthening so all in the central and western Caribbean keep you eye on Tropical Wave 7/EX-TD 7

models should keep on running through out its "zombie" period
1664. VR46L
Bye bye TD7



even in rainbow


Well, goodnight all. stay well, stay safe.
What's next down the pipe line?
1667. SLU
RECON heading home. Good job guys.

ULL over the NW Caribbean may be an interesting feature to watch today. Looked like a little surface spin was trying to form yesterday just south of Western Cuba. Not saying a LLC is going to form but I think the area will blob up again and one may try to form. Disturbed area of weather just east of Florida may get interesting too.
also this was a first

"WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR
THEIR HARD WORK INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING."
well its either that or they haven't been thanking them in recent times so might as well do it now

Invest 93L still has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's in cool SSTs and surrounded by a lot of dry air now, but it will enter a favorable environment in about 72 hours, where organization may occur. This is going out to sea though.

1672. hydrus
Here is the other Katrina I remember..Formed November 3, 1981
Dissipated November 8, 1981
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
85 mph (140 km/h)
Lowest pressure 980 mbar (hPa); 28.94 inHg
Fatalities 2 direct
Areas affected Cuba, Bahamas, Cayman Islands
Quoting SLU:
RECON heading home. Good job guys.



As I was saying earlier the system was almost open when the HH got there and deteriorated rapidly thereafter. They certainly did hunt around a lot at low altitude and gave it the best shot they could.
dont say bye bye too TD 7 yet it may come back later
1675. VR46L
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well advisory is out TD7 is now a tropical wave however they now make it seem that it could regenerate which I think it could and would once it has entered the Central Caribbean

"THE WAVE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...AND
ADVISORIES WOULD BE RE-INITIATED IF NEEDED."

I think that when it does enter the central caribbean it will be in good enough conditions for quick redvelopment and strengthening so all in the central and western Caribbean keep you eye on Tropical Wave 7/EX-TD 7

models should keep on running through out its "zombie" period


I dont know Wonderkid there is a lot of dry air in the southern Caribbean it has to combat before it could possibly regenerate

ok guy I know you want to hear it from me so here it is TD7 has officaly by the NHC and also MY SELF degenerated to a Tropicl Wave

however look out for possible regeneration in the Central Caribbean in a couple of days

I also expect it forward movements to slow down when it reaches the area
11August06amGMT's 13.8n53.1w-13.9n55.1w was re-evaluated&altered
11August12pmGMT's 13.7n53.2w-13.6n55.6w-13.3n57.9w are now the most recent positions
(Vectors and straightline projections have been corrected from the previous mapping)
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionSeven for 11August12pmGMT:
MinimumPressure decreased from 1009millibars to 1008millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 30knots(35mph)56km/h
Vector changed from 267.8*West@26.9mph(43.3km/h) to 262.7*West@26mph(41.8km/h)

POS-Trinidad :: GND-Grenada :: MQS-Mustique :: BGI-Barbados :: SLU-St.Lucia ::

The nearest dot east of BGI is TD.7's most recent position

The 2 westernmost lines are part of a straightline projection through TD.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
10August12pmGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over LittleBay,St.Lucy (topBarbados)
10August6pmGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over LinnisPoint~Dennery(town) (bottomSLUdumbbell)
11August12amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage TD.7 was heading for passage 10.5miles(16.9kilometres)South of St.Lucia
11August6amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage 2.8miles(4.4kilometres)North of Barbados
11August12pmGMT: TD.7 was heading for passage over GrantleyAdamsInternationalAirport in ~1hour, then pass over PetiteMustique in ~5&1/2.hours from now

Copy&paste pos, 10.595n61.023w, mqs, bgi, gnd, 12.191n61.602w, slu-13.89n60.883w, ptp, 13.7n50.9w-13.7n53.2w, 13.7n50.9w-13.555n60.942w, 13.708n60.947w-13.555n60.942w, 13.7n53.2w-13.6n55.6w, 13.7n53.2w-13.375n59.616w, 13.335n59.613w-13.375n59.616w, 13.6n55.6w-13.3n57.9w, 13.6n55.6w-13.085n59.462w, 13.6n55.6w-12.834n61.193w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 93L still has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's in cool SSTs and surrounded by a lot of dry air now, but it will enter a favorable environment in about 72 hours, where organization may occur. This is going out to sea though.


I agree, I still think this has a good chance at becoming a hurricane.
Quoting aspectre:
11August06amGMT's 13.8n53.1w-13.9n55.1w was re-evaluated&altered
11August12pmGMT's 13.7n53.2w-13.6n55.6w-13.3n57.9w are now the most recent positions
(Vectors and straightline projections have been corrected from the previous mapping)
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionSeven for 11August12pmGMT:
MinimumPressure decreased from 1009millibars to 1008millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 30knots(35mph)56km/h
Vector changed from 267.8°West@26.9mph(43.3km/h) to 262.7°West@26mph(41.8km/h)

POS-Trinidad :: GND-Grenada :: BGI-Barbados :: SLU-St.Lucia :: []-Mustique

The easternmost dot on the connected lines is where 92L-AL07 became TD.7
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TD.7's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TD.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
10August12pmGMT: 10August12pmGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over LittleBay,St.Lucy (topBarbados)
10August6pmGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over LinnisPoint~Dennery(town) (bottomSLUdumbbell)
11August12amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage TD.7 was heading for passage 10.5miles(16.9kilometres)South of St.Lucia
11August6amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage 2.8miles(4.4kilometres)North of Barbados
11August12pmGMT: TD.7 was heading for passage over GrantleyAdamsInternationalAirport in ~1hour, then pass over PetiteMustique in ~5&1/2.hours
from now

Copy&paste pos, 10.595n61.023w, bgi, gnd, 12.191n61.602w, slu-13.89n60.883w, ptp, 13.7n50.9w-13.7n53.2w, 13.7n50.9w-13.555n60.942w, 13.708n60.947w-13.555n60.942w, 13.7n53.2w-13.6n55.6w, 13.7n53.2w-13.375n59.616w, 13.335n59.613w-13.375n59.616w, 13.6n55.6w-13.3n57.9w, 13.6n55.6w-13.085n59.462 into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison




you need too go look at the nhc site be for you start doing that


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 58.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

Quoting VR46L:


I dont know Wonderkid there is a lot of dry air in the southern Caribbean it has to combat before it could possibly regenerate


I think it will just give it time and watch it closely
1681. Patrap
So this is a depression (Gilma)



But this isn't? (94E)

Quoting Tazmanian:




you need too go look at the nhc site be for you start doing that


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 58.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


no he is correct he is using the ATCF data and NHC data and if you look most time both data never add up
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
So this is a depression (Gilma)



But this isn't? (94E)



There is still an elongated center. It will need to consolidate a bit first before being classified.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no he is correct he is using the ATCF data and NHC data and if you look most time both data never add up




thats ture
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


There is still an elongated center. It will need to consolidate a bit first before being classified.




no close low with 94E?
1688. hydrus
West Caribbean.
Several here, if not many, were calling for the tropical depression to weaken to a wave days ago. Certainly read several posts yesterday that predicted the demise. Was moving way too fast and had dry air and shear adversely affecting it. Not a big surprise to most of us here. NHC had to do it over, they probably would have left it an invest. During the last 48hrs. TD-07 was probably below 35mph. Koritheman did a blog two days ago predicting just what has happened to TD07.
So are we still expecting a Cat 3/4 in the NW Caribbean?
Should be classified at 2 p.m. PDT:

Quoting Tazmanian:




no close low with 94E?


Not quite yet. Look at the 850 mb. I am sure we are getting very close though.

94E looks like it being shear apart
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


Not quite yet. Look at the 850 mb. I am sure we are getting very close though.




ok thanks
1695. Patrap
94E Rainbow Loop

Quoting Tazmanian:



ok thanks


Shear could possibly be an issue for 94E. However, it is developing a rather healthy anticyclone over top of it which should help fend of the shear.

huh the funny thing is guys is that after NHC degenerates TD7 it starts to look better on barbados radar

Link

anyway I think what will happen is that EX-TD7 will move into the Eastern Caribbean as tropical wave and start to catch up in the central caribbean near 70/73W
Comment 1682 lol, ya I'd love to see them even try to explain that. They've been cunningly biding their time to name Ernesto something else. I harped on this pretty good yesterday, so I won't be long winded again, but Ernesto never died and shouldn't have been reinvested.
The MJO should help Invest 93L in a few days.

1700. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO should help Invest 93L in a few days.

Might even help 07 later.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO should help Invest 93L in a few days.



That is an old image. The MJO is almost already here.

These dissipating East Pac storms always look so cool on visible:

1703. hydrus
Quoting Tribucanes:
Several here, if not many, were calling for the tropical depression to weaken to a wave days ago. Certainly read several posts yesterday that predicted the demise. Was moving way too fast and had dry air and shear adversely affecting it. Not a big surprise to most of us here. NHC had to do it over, they probably would have left it an invest. During the last 48hrs. TD-07 was probably below 35mph. Koritheman did a blog two days ago predicting just what has happened to TD07.
My prediction was this would get a name before hitting the islands. Glad I am not too picky about my fodder..:)


93 needs some warmer waters till then nothing it may be deactivated as well over the next 48 to 72 if nothing pops up
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


Shear could possibly be an issue for 94E. However, it is developing a rather healthy anticyclone over top of it which should help fend of the shear.




thanks looks like 94E is heading for CA
Quoting Tazmanian:



thanks looks like 94E is heading for CA


Some models have been hinting at a possible course into Baja California.
1012MB south of cuba
chat anyone?
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


Some models have been hinting at a possible course into Baja California.



how far N dos 94E go
Quoting luvtogolf:
So are we still expecting a Cat 3/4 in the NW Caribbean?

I know you are talking to me so I'll give you your answer and it is HELL NO

BUT I do see regeneration as a good possiblity in the Central Caribbean

I'm going to go a bit with the SHIPS with that I think if this does regenerate it could become close to a CAT 1 of 75MPH just S of Jamaica maybe a 70MPH TS unlike SHIPS that does bring it up to CAT 1

I will bring out My models soon also I'm including my NEW multi Model tracks too

Comment1703 response: hydrus, not nearly as silly as my blob thoughts from about a month ago :). You, NHC, some models, and many many of the experts thought TD-07 would get a name before reaching the islands. Certainly not a crow eating offense. Now watch it spin up quickly again just to toy with the NHC. Conditions are far too unfavorable for that to happen though. May be Tuesday or Wednesday before it's back to TD strength.
Alright everyone, I am going to be out and about for the next few hours. Tomorrow I am going down to NHC to work on the ghost of Ernesto in the EPAC. If anyone needs anything just post it on my blog. Link
Quoting Patrap:
94E Rainbow Loop

to me it appears to not be spinning right and the convection could wane right out by mid afternoon
Oh wait..lookout CA..NAM:)

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
1012MB south of cuba


nope
no low in the area only in upper levels

pressure here in Grand Cayman 1015mb and rising
1719. SLU
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur _50km/zooms/WMBds26.png
With all the lift in the EPAC was expecting atleast one early cycle model to go hurricane on 94E..none do.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
1012MB south of cuba
Would not surprise me if something develops there in next few days.
1722. Patrap
1724. SLU
1725. Patrap
1726. SLU
Quoting SLU:
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/c ur _50km/zooms/WMBds26.png

intresting double circulation its like a spitting image of Ernesto when he was in that same area but the only this is that it is weaker
i was wanting too no what happen too ex Florence lift overes where did they all go?
1729. Patrap
Mucho Gracias on the Rain here.

75.8 F currently as well.

: )
Looks like td 7 will be the first td of the season to not become a ts hate when a td doesn`t strength to a ts.
1731. Msdrown
Quoting Patrap:
Huge Stripe On The Sun - Is Earth In Serious Danger?
10 August, 2012


MessageToEagle.com - The Sun's odd behavior has been mentioned on many occasions recently. As we all await the Solar Cycle 24, scientists keep a close eye on the Sun.

Now astronomers have discovered huge dark strip on the surface of the Sun. It is estimated this filament is about 800,000 km in length!

Astrophysicists presume dark spots on the Sun are areas where the temperature is lower. However what we see here is not a normal sunspot and it is growing at an alarming rate.

According to researchers the region has increased to almost one million kilometers in just three days.

NASA forecasts that in September 2012, there will be outbreaks of unprecedented power. We can expect huge solar flares that can have serious effect world-wide.

Commenting on the study of the dangers of "space weather", astrophysicist Daniel Baker claimed that the effects will be comparable to a nuclear war or the fall of a giant asteroid


MAweatherboy1; These are the numbers of the posts that were discussed eralier this morning inregards to your Sun gash. 961,972,983,1215, I will do more research and get back to you. This has been something I've been watching in regards to CME'S
1732. hydrus
This is over some really warm water. I am watching it.
12Z GFS is coming out now
in other news

Powerful earthquake strikes northwestern Iran




DUBAI (Reuters) - Two strong earthquakes struck northwest Iran on Saturday and at least 50 people were taken to hospital, but there were no reports of any deaths, Iranian media said.

The U.S. Geological Survey measured the first quake at 6.4 magnitude and said it struck 60 km (37 miles) northeast of the city of Tabriz at a depth of 9.9. km (6.2 miles) at 12.34 GMT.

It said a second earthquake measuring 6.3 struck 49 km (30 miles) northeast of Tabriz 11 minutes later at a similar depth. Three more lesser aftershocks have followed since then.

The second quake struck near the town of Varzgan, Fars news agency said. "The quake was so intense that people poured into the streets through fear," it said.

Fifty people in the town had been taken to hospital, Fars said.

Other reports said the earthquake had broken telephone communications, making rescue efforts more problematic.

Iran is straddled by several major fault lines and has suffered several devastating earthquakes in recent times, the last which struck the city of Bam in 2003, killing more than 25,000 people.

(Reporting by Marcus George; Editing by Jon Hemming
1735. Patrap
www.solarham.net


Updated 8/11/2012 @ 13:55 UTC

M1.0 Flare

A long duration M1.0 solar flare took place this morning and was centered around Sunspot 1540. There was some interaction with Sunspot 1544 as well. Watch as plasma is magnetically pulled back in towards 1544 located to the east.



1736. Msdrown
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
These dissipating East Pac storms always look so cool on visible:



MAweatherboy1; here are the post earlier this morning that addressed your question about the Sun gash. 961,972,983,1215. I'll do some research and get back to you. This has been a interest of mine for a couple of years too. Don't get to crazy with this right now, theres nothing you can do about it anyway.
Quoting allancalderini:
Looks like td 7 will be the first td of the season to not become a ts hate when a td doesn`t strength to a ts.

hold on wait watch what it does in the caribbean its not dead and gone yet it has just weakened to a tropical wave
1739. SLU
Quoting Tazmanian:
in other news

Powerful earthquake strikes northwestern Iran




DUBAI (Reuters) - Two strong earthquakes struck northwest Iran on Saturday and at least 50 people were taken to hospital, but there were no reports of any deaths, Iranian media said.

The U.S. Geological Survey measured the first quake at 6.4 magnitude and said it struck 60 km (37 miles) northeast of the city of Tabriz at a depth of 9.9. km (6.2 miles) at 12.34 GMT.

It said a second earthquake measuring 6.3 struck 49 km (30 miles) northeast of Tabriz 11 minutes later at a similar depth. Three more lesser aftershocks have followed since then.

The second quake struck near the town of Varzgan, Fars news agency said. "The quake was so intense that people poured into the streets through fear," it said.

Fifty people in the town had been taken to hospital, Fars said.

Other reports said the earthquake had broken telephone communications, making rescue efforts more problematic.

Iran is straddled by several major fault lines and has suffered several devastating earthquakes in recent times, the last which struck the city of Bam in 2003, killing more than 25,000 people.

(Reporting by Marcus George; Editing by Jon Hemming


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
i think ex TD 7 will have a better ch in a few days
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well advisory is out TD7 is now a tropical wave however they now make it seem that it could regenerate which I think it could and would once it has entered the Central Caribbean

"THE WAVE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...AND
ADVISORIES WOULD BE RE-INITIATED IF NEEDED."

I think that when it does enter the central caribbean it will be in good enough conditions for quick redvelopment and strengthening so all in the central and western Caribbean keep you eye on Tropical Wave 7/EX-TD 7

models should keep on running through out its "zombie" period


Maybe pull a Bonnie.. regenerate to depression status in the western Caribbean, and then a storm in the Gulf. Don't personally know if any of the models are suggesting that, but so far its essentially taken the same path through into the islands and at the same intensity... now if it can just stay far enough away from south america. None of the models forecasted regeneration with Bonnie.
1744. Patrap
The Storm Remains the Same ?
1679 Tazmanian: You need to go look at the NHC site before you start doing that

Nope.
1) The NHC.Advisory was for 3pmGMT. My historical mapping was for 12pmGMT.
2) The AutomatedTropicalCycloneForecasting file is the NHC's official report-of-record. When the NHC re-evaluates&alters the numbers on the ATCF report-of-record, I reflect that change on the next mapping.