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Tropical Depression Seven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:59 PM GMT on August 09, 2012

Tropical Depression Seven is here. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto on August 1, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is quite favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26°C, which is a bit on the cool side, though. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 were 20 mph at 5 pm EDT, and should rise this evening, as the center of TD 7 passes about 50 miles to the south near midnight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Satellite image of TD 7 as it was forming at 3:17 pm EDT August 9, 2012.

Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through Friday then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter moderate shear from upper-level westerly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. Since conditions are so similar to what Ernesto experienced, the official NHC forecast of a 45 - 50 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday and Sunday is a reasonable one.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting caneswatch:
Andrew ('92), Gordon ('94), Erin ('95), Jerry ('95), Mitch ('98), Floyd ('99), Harvey ('99), Irene ('99), Gordon ('00), Frances ('04), Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Fay ('08), Bonnie ('10).


Don't remember much about the first 5. I thought Floyd was gonna completely destroy my house (Thank God it didn't), don't remember Harvey, Irene turned Florida into a water park, Gordon of '00 was a pain, got lucky Frances wasn't worse, same goes for Jeanne, Wilma was the worst of all damage-wise, Fay was the sister of Irene, and I don't know how I made it through Bonnie (thanks to Mississippi for this sarcasm).
1002. GPTGUY
I've been thru Frederic 1979, Elena 1985, Florence as it was weakening 1988, Georges 1998, Allison's second landfall 2001, Ivan 2004, Cindy 2005, Katrina 2005, Gustav 2008
1003. JLPR2
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


this happen in the year I was born...




This happened the year I was born:
1991 Perfect Storm.

Quoting yqt1001:


Some pretty epic gales (of november) possible this year. Water temp has been above normal so we might get some decent storms.

Always like those fall storms, 40-60mph winds and rain. Knew when the cold front passed and it then became sunny , cool, and windy. With the water temps there could be bigger LES(lake effect snow) or lake enhanced snows this winter. Another downpour right now.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



My wife is about to finish her Masters in Psychology and she says it's a form of PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) that is triggered in the body after a strike, especially a violent one. Not in all cases mind you but, a lot. The fascination is built on fear of the next strike and similar event triggers.


I was thinking that just as I read your post. I taught Cambodian refugee children in Houston who had escaped the Kmer Rouge (I was real young), kids whose homes had disintegrated around them when our district was hit by a tornado, and young girls whose victimization required police reports, among other things, and I am from the Texas coast. I guess I am saying I have seen PTSD up close and I really believe it leaves it's mark on storm survivors.
wow. is it going to be like this until ?????
1007. yqt1001
Quoting wxchaser97:

Always like those fall storms, 40-60mph winds and rain. Knew when the cold front passed and it then became sunny , cool, and windy. With the water temps there could be bigger LES(lake effect snow) or lake enhanced snows this winter. Another downpour right now.


We don't get much snow here. Upwind from the lake, so snow squalls are pretty rare. We do get insane wind chills though, we hold the record for Ontario's coldest wind chill at -58C.
Quoting yqt1001:
Am I going crazy or is this what I think it is?



Not bad organization for a TD.

I'm not buying it yet I'll wait till later in the morning
Quoting yqt1001:
Am I going crazy or is this what I think it is?



Not bad organization for a TD.


That's fairly impressive. That image just shows what some of us have been saying. It has a nice low level structure, just lacking convection due to subsidence. It needs to orient itself south of the ridge, rather than on the subsident SE periphery.
Quoting yqt1001:


We don't get much snow here. Upwind from the lake, so snow squalls are pretty rare. We do get insane wind chills though, we hold the record for Ontario's coldest wind chill at -50C.

I'm in the Metro Detroit area so we only get T-2" from LES usually. Too far to get significant snow but close enough to get some.
Quoting JLPR2:


This happened the year I was born:
1991 Perfect Storm.



I was born September 13 1988, I have confidence that people here will know the tropical significance of that date in history (made less significant by a certain 2005 storm).
Quoting BahaHurican:
But relevant I think, for many bloggers who have endured some of the more terrifying hurricane strikes and who come here every year with this combination of awe, terror, and fascination that others just can't understand.


It's a twisted soup for sure. I am a mid-western transplant back in 02. My brother wants to come down the next time a storm comes here. I'm highly reluctant on that one, just too many variables.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Another image of it, one strange storm but happened a year before I was born.


I caught some rain and winds from that!

Lake Michigan:
Quoting MississippiWx:


That's fairly impressive. That image just shows what some of us have been saying. It has a nice low level structure, just lacking convection due to subsidence. It needs to orient itself south of the ridge, rather than on the subsident SW periphery.



Its lacking because:

A: Dust
B: Shear
C: Its moving at 20 mph and is very very small with minimal rotation.
1015. JLPR2
Quoting atmosweather:


I was born September 13 1988, I have confidence that people here will know the tropical significance of that date in history (made less significant by a certain 2005 storm).


Ha! You beat me there. Nothing that big occurred in the Atl in 1991. XD
Quoting DataNerd:



Its lacking because:

A: Dust
B: Shear
C: Its moving at 20 mph and is very very small with minimal rotation.


Minimal rotation?
Ernesto downgraded. Night night shift

Quoting scooster67:
Ernesto downgraded. Night night shift


Night, still waiting on the TWO.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Lake Michigan has warm waters as well, if a system stalled and then went warm-core it could happen.


I'm from WI so I've been through blizzards, cold etc, but you know where I went through the absolute worst snow storm and one my scariest weather experiences?
San Antonio.

We had a freak 14 inches of snow. For some stupid reason I was out driving in it. (Long story)
No plows. No rescue. The entire city was closed. I could not park my car anywhere. Everything was closed. There were no police out because they couldn't drive in the stuff. This was b4 cell phones. I was all alone and had to drive about 20 miles to get home. My car went into snow bank after snow bank.

I thought I was going to die. (This was 1985)
Quoting JLPR2:


Ha! You beat me there. Nothing that big occurred int he Atl in 1991. XD


Nothing that big but even better, something perfect ;)


e looks to be our first cross basin storm of the season heavy weather along mex coast on the west side
1022. yqt1001
50% on 93L

Whoever said that a while back deserves a cookie. :P
50% for 93L just like I called it. Awww yeahhh. ;P
These are the ones I remember & were here for..Hurricane David (79), TS Dennis ('81), TS Barry('83), TS Diana & Isadore('84 learned to skim board in the swamps), TS Bob (85), TS Cris & Keith (88), Hurricane Irene & Floyd (99), TS Gabrielle (81), TD Henri (03), Hurricane Frances & Jeanne ('04), Hurricane Wilma ('05), TS Ernesto (06), TS Faye ('08).
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


I'm from WI so I've been through blizzards, cold etc, but you know where I went through the absolute worst snow storm and one my scariest weather experiences?
San Antonio.

We had a freak 14 inches of snow. For some stupid reason I was out driving in it. (Long story)
No plows. No rescue. The entire city was closed. I could not park my car anywhere. Everything was closed. There were no police out because they couldn't drive in the stuff. This was b4 cell phones. I was all alone and had to drive about 20 miles to get home. My car went into snow bank after snow bank.

I thought I was going to die. (This was 1985)

They don't have all the stuff we have up here but even then most stuff closes. That had to be terrifying but yet also cool. Most ive seen is 12-14" in a storm in 2011(not the Groundhog day blizzard, 9" from that, it was presidents day)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
OAXACA MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT
1045 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

This happened the year I was born. Hmmmm it may have been the last time either me or a hurricane was in Georgia?? Lol



Old school tracking (may have been Grothar's?)

Quoting TexNowNM:


I was thinking that just as I read your post. I taught Cambodian refugee children in Houston who had escaped the Kmer Rouge (I was real young), kids whose homes had disintegrated around them when our district was hit by a tornado, and young girls whose victimization required police reports, among other things, and I am from the Texas coast. I guess I am saying I have seen PTSD up close and I really believe it leaves it's mark on storm survivors.


Certainly far reaching and easily manageable in the lighter cases by talking about it and relating to similar experiences. What better place to talk it out than on a weather blog, right ;-)

Funny how people can be so similar at times.
93L= 50%
Ex-Flo= 10%
Ernesto= TD
TD7= nothing new
She is flashing the front lights...

1032. JLPR2
Quoting atmosweather:


Nothing that big but even better, something perfect ;)


I wasn't a "stormy" baby. XD

I was born in January so South hemisphere storms it is. But there aren't any pictures of the ones that were active then, bummer.
#958. sar2401
I noticed that forward speed too, and was not surprised to see several of the models not developing much. But we shall see...

Quoting MississippiWx:


Numerous tropical storms (including Allison's second landfall), Georges, Katrina, Gustav, western portion of Ivan, second landfall of Andrew, and Cindy.
I think I just did this list recently... lol

Ironically, despite our rather high statistical vulnerability, the 25 or so years between 1967 and 1992 were relatively quiet ones for the Bahamas, with really only David in 1979 having any serious impact. Nevertheless I grew up knowing about the hurricane "sword of Damocles" and hearing stories of the historical "big ones"... 1926, 1928, 1929... Donna, Betsy, and so on.

Since 1992, we've averaged a hurricane about every other year, and most years we've had at least one TC impact. While I have been very fortunate that the island on which I reside, New Providence, has not experienced major [i.e. cat 3-5] winds since this new active period has begun, other parts of the country have not been so fortunate. My grandmother has lost her roof to hurricanes twice in the last 20 years, and flooding from storm surge and heavy rains during tropical storms and hurricanes have devastated several of our islands over the years.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
OAXACA MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT
1045 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting wxchaser97:

They don't have all the stuff we have up here but even then most stuff closes. That had to be terrifying but yet also cool. Most ive seen is 12-14" in a storm in 2011(not the Groundhog day blizzard, 9" from that, it was presidents day)


It wasn't cool. No snowplows. Not cool. LOL
Allison and Ike are the really noteworthy ones I've been through. Others include Dean (95, so weak that it really doesn't count), Francis (98), Claudette (03, very norther edge of effects), and maybe Rita (05) and Humberto (07), but those were to the east, so they really don't count.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
This happened the year I was born. Hmmmm it may have been the last time either me or a hurricane was in Georgia?? Lol



Old school tracking (may have been Grothar's?)

Alma used to be my avatar and must have caused the west coast of FL. fits. I think it still holds the record for the earliest major hurricane in the Atlantic.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
This happened the year I was born. Hmmmm it may have been the last time either me or a hurricane was in Georgia?? Lol



Old school tracking (may have been Grothar's?)


I thought he used this back then:
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


It wasn't cool. No snowplows. Not cool. LOL

Cold? :)
Can't really imagine having to deal with that and luckily you made it out ok.
This happened the year I was born:

Really have enjoyed the blog tonight. We are all very similar :) I'm out for tonight...
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Really have enjoyed the blog tonight. We are all very similar :) I'm out for tonight...


Night TG08.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Really have enjoyed the blog tonight. We are all very similar :) I'm out for tonight...


Night TG08, its been good tonite! :)
TD 8 BY 11 AM, 5 PM...any voters???
Quoting wxchaser97:

Cold? :)
Can't really imagine having to deal with that and luckily you made it out ok.


It was one wild ride.
Never underestimate the value of snowplows!


92W... just 1.5 degrees from the Dateline...
Quoting MississippiWx:


How did you ever make it through Bonnie??

I just want to say that the Bahamas got some TORRENTIAL rains from Bonnie...maybe even as bad as Debbie in some locations...

;o)
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


It was one wild ride.
Never underestimate the value of snowplows!

I dont, I like when there is a major snowstorm so I get a snow day, but I respect the snowplow.
1049. JLPR2
TD 7 proved it is indeed at TD
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts

well guys I have a few in recent times
Hurricane Keith
TS Helene
Hurricane Michelle
Hurricane Isidore
Hurricane Lili
Hurricane Charley
Hurricane Ivan
Hurricane Dennis
Hurricane Emily
Hurricane Wilma
Hurricane Dean
Hurricane Felix
Tropical Storm Fay (though it was a TS gaves a a waloping rain)
Hurricane Gustav
Hurricane Paloma
Hurrican Ida (though the effects were minor compared to previous ones)
Hurricane Alex (conditions was worse than Ida
Hurricane Karl
Hurricane Matthew
TS Nicole (gave us a ton of rain)
Hurricane Paula (though effect were not bad)
TS Richards (not too bad on the effects)
Hurricane Rena (gaves us some good winds)
and lastly Hurricane Ernesto (wind of 45MPH and rain)
yep a lot of storms that effected us here in Cayman Island from 2000 till now
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Alma used to be my avatar and must have caused the west coast of FL. fits. I think it still holds the record for the earliest major hurricane in the Atlantic.


I think you're right I saw this when looking for images.

anyway all out
got to catch some zzzz
see ya all later
sometime after 9 am


TGIF
Quoting atmosweather:


I was born September 13 1988, I have confidence that people here will know the tropical significance of that date in history (made less significant by a certain 2005 storm).
Gilbert
Quoting wxchaser97:

I thought he used this back then:


LOL! :)
That looks to be one of the most intense storms I've ever seen.
2010 TS Bonnie:


Hurricane Easy:

This system developed near the Isle of Youth on September 1st. Stationary for the first couple days
of its life, the system moved northward through Cuba passing near Havana. Passing the Florida Keys
as a minimal hurricane, Easy paralleled the Florida coast by around 40 miles on the 4th. Looping as it
moved east to northeast, the center reached the Cedar Keys on the 5th before moving back away to the
east, which brought the same side of the cyclone to the Cedar Keys twice. During the first loop, Easy
became a category 3 hurricane. Moving away to the southeast, the center approached Tampa before
moving across the northern Florida peninsula. While it dissipated as a tropical cyclone over Georgia
on the 7th, the remaining area of low pressure moved west-northwest through the Deep South, slowing
its progression as it turned to the north over the central Mississippi valley on the 10th and 11th. By the
morning of the 12th, a cold front approached from the northwest and the cyclone was no longer detectable.
Below are the rainfall graphics for Easy, which used data from the National Climatic Data Center
in Asheville, North Carolina.

1040 1900hurricane: This happened the year I was born:

Wow! I didn't even know they had satellite photos back in 1900
Quoting DataNerd:



Its lacking because:

A: Dust
B: Shear
C: Its moving at 20 mph and is very very small with minimal rotation.


Not because of shear.

I'm aware of the other factors, but those aren't going to change. The subsidence due to the SE flank of the ridge will change however.
Quoting popartpete:
Gilbert


Always found it spooky that Gilbert's minimum pressure was 888 mb, in the year '88 xD
Quoting atmosweather:


Night TG08, its been good tonite! :)
I gotta say, this has been a good blogging day... hope it lasts...

Quoting aspectre:
1040 1900hurricane: This happened the year I was born:

Wow! I didn't even know they had satellite photos back in 1900

they didnt, note the word Sattelite, and the fact that the 1st sattelite was Sputnik which was launched in the 1950's...
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

they didnt, note the word Sattelite, and the fact that the 1st sattelite was Sputnik which was launched in the 1950's...

Link

heres more proof
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hurricane Easy:

This system developed near the Isle of Youth on September 1st. Stationary for the first couple days
of its life, the system moved northward through Cuba passing near Havana. Passing the Florida Keys
as a minimal hurricane, Easy paralleled the Florida coast by around 40 miles on the 4th. Looping as it
moved east to northeast, the center reached the Cedar Keys on the 5th before moving back away to the
east, which brought the same side of the cyclone to the Cedar Keys twice. During the first loop, Easy
became a category 3 hurricane. Moving away to the southeast, the center approached Tampa before
moving across the northern Florida peninsula. While it dissipated as a tropical cyclone over Georgia
on the 7th, the remaining area of low pressure moved west-northwest through the Deep South, slowing
its progression as it turned to the north over the central Mississippi valley on the 10th and 11th. By the
morning of the 12th, a cold front approached from the northwest and the cyclone was no longer detectable.
Below are the rainfall graphics for Easy, which used data from the National Climatic Data Center
in Asheville, North Carolina.



If we ever get a repeat of THAT again this website will cease to exist.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I gotta say, this has been a good blogging day... hope it lasts...



It won't ;p

But there's hope for all of us lol.
Quoting atmosweather:


Always found it spooky that Gilbert's minimum pressure was 888 mb, in the year '88 xD
not only that but if formed on the 8th as well as being the 8th tropical system that year
so Gilbert was in '88 had pressure of 888 it became the 8th storm on the 8th of September and I kinda wounder why it couldn't have formed one month earler
Whew! 126 mph winds in what looks like about 20 miles offshore Pinellas County would be the absolute worst if that were to happen nowadays especially being that Easy was a slow mover.

Quoting dfwstormwatch:

they didnt, note the word Sattelite, and the fact that the 1st sattelite was Sputnik which was launched in the 1950's...
#facepalm...
Quoting caneswatch:


Don't remember much about the first 5. I thought Floyd was gonna completely destroy my house (Thank God it didn't), don't remember Harvey, Irene turned Florida into a water park, Gordon of '00 was a pain, got lucky Frances wasn't worse, same goes for Jeanne, Wilma was the worst of all damage-wise, Fay was the sister of Irene, and I don't know how I made it through Bonnie (thanks to Mississippi for this sarcasm).


I've been through Fran 96 (I was only a few months old) Bertha '96, Floyd '99 still too young to remember, Isabel by far was the worse for me, knocked a 101 year old oak onto my house. The eyewall remnants were intense. Gaston in 04 was unreal too. It kept pouring, and pouring for what seemed like an eternity. It completely flooded Shockoe Bottom and other low lying areas of Richmond. Ernesto 06 was mostly a rainmaker but did see some gusty winds out of it. Hanna in 08 was pathetic, rained for 6-7 hours and it was gone by Saturday morning, yet the Sprint Cup race which was in town was postponed from Saturday night to Sunday. Most recently Irene which knocked a few limbs down but didn't lose power. It was still quite a storm.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
not only that but if formed on the 8th as well as being the 8th tropical system that year
so Gilbert was in '88 had pressure of 888 it became the 8th storm on the 8th of September and I kinda wounder why it couldn't have formed one month earler


G is the 7th letter in the alphabet and I think there were 4 tropical depressions that existed before it along with the other named systems. But you are correct about Gilbert forming on the 8th of September.
Quoting atmosweather:


It won't ;p

But there's hope for all of us lol.
Yeah, I live in hope... and I don't mean Hope Town, Abaco, either... lol

The blog keeps resetting to "show Average", which I'm taking as a sign to sign off for the nonce...

g'night 2 all, and etc...

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hurricane Easy:

This system developed near the Isle of Youth on September 1st. Stationary for the first couple days
of its life, the system moved northward through Cuba passing near Havana. Passing the Florida Keys
as a minimal hurricane, Easy paralleled the Florida coast by around 40 miles on the 4th. Looping as it
moved east to northeast, the center reached the Cedar Keys on the 5th before moving back away to the
east, which brought the same side of the cyclone to the Cedar Keys twice. During the first loop, Easy
became a category 3 hurricane. Moving away to the southeast, the center approached Tampa before
moving across the northern Florida peninsula. While it dissipated as a tropical cyclone over Georgia
on the 7th, the remaining area of low pressure moved west-northwest through the Deep South, slowing
its progression as it turned to the north over the central Mississippi valley on the 10th and 11th. By the
morning of the 12th, a cold front approached from the northwest and the cyclone was no longer detectable.
Below are the rainfall graphics for Easy, which used data from the National Climatic Data Center
in Asheville, North Carolina.



Wow. Hadn't heard of that one before. Doesn't seem there was anything Easy about it all.
quite dangerous
Quoting atmosweather:


G is the 7th letter in the alphabet and I think there were 4 tropical depressions that existed before it along with the other named systems. But you are correct about Gilbert forming on the 8th of September.

no it was the 8th storm


# Name Date Wind Pres Cat
1 Tropical Storm ALBERTO 5- 8 AUG 35 1002 -
2 Tropical Storm BERYL 8-10 AUG 45 1001 -
3 Tropical Storm CHRIS 21-30 AUG 45 1005 -
4 Hurricane DEBBY 31 AUG- 8 SEP 65 987 1
5 Tropical Storm ERNESTO 3- 5 SEP 55 994 -
6 Tropical Storm #6 7-10 SEP 50 994 -
7 Hurricane FLORENCE 7-11 SEP 70 983 1
8 Hurricane GILBERT 8-20 SEP 160 888 5
9 Hurricane HELENE 19-30 SEP 125 938 4
10 Tropical Storm ISAAC 28 SEP- 1 OCT 40 1005 -
11 Hurricane JOAN 10-23 OCT 125 932 4
12 Tropical Storm KEITH 17-26 NOV 65 945 -


EYE!!!
Quoting atmosweather:


If we ever get a repeat of THAT again this website will cease to exist.
It boggles ones mind what the steering currents were like. This is from wiki and there is even mentions of a possible fujiwhara with Hurricane Dog which would be awesome from a meteorological perspective:

Following the passage of Hurricane Baker through the Caribbean Sea, a trough of low pressure persisted across the western Caribbean Sea. On August 31, convection became more concentrated to the south of the Isle of Youth, and on September 1 the disturbance developed into a tropical storm; it was later given the name "Easy", as part of the United States Weather Bureau naming tropical cyclones with the Joint Army/Navy Phonetic Alphabet. A developing anticyclone and moist air over the region provided favorable conditions for intensification, as the storm tracked slowly northeastward. On September 2, Tropical Storm Easy attained hurricane status about 50 miles (85 km) south of the Isle of Youth.[2]
After crossing the Isle of Youth, Hurricane Easy strengthened slightly while continuing northeastward, and the storm struck the Matanzas Province of Cuba with winds of 80 mph (130 km/h). The hurricane quickly crossed the island, passing just east of Havana before reaching the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on September 3. After entering the Gulf of Mexico, Easy turned to the north-northwest, paralleling the Florida coastline a short distance offshore while producing hurricane force winds onshore. On September 4, the hurricane quickly strengthened to reach peak winds of 125 mph (201 km/h), an intensity it would retain for 18 hours. That day, a ridge of high pressure strengthened to the north of the storm, leaving weaker steering currents. This caused Hurricane Easy to execute a counter-clockwise loop to the west of Tampa, Florida.[2]
After executing its first loop, Hurricane Easy moved northeastward at 7 mph (11 km/h) until making landfall near Cedar Key on September 5 with winds of 120 mph (190 km/h). Steering currents again became weak, causing Easy to execute a second loop in 24 hours towards the southeast. After briefly emerging into the Gulf of Mexico,[2] the hurricane made its final landfall on Homosassa Springs to the north of Tampa,[3] and rapidly weakened to a tropical storm over land. Easy turned to the northeast, which was followed by a turn to the northwest as the storm neared the Atlantic coast. On September 7, Easy crossed into Georgia, and shortly thereafter it weakened to a tropical depression. The depression continued northwestward for two days until dissipating over extreme northeastern Arkansas on September 9. The reason for its erratic track, including the two loops, is unknown, although it is potentially due to a Fujiwhara interaction with Hurricane Dog to its east.[2]
Alright I'm calling it a night, see ya later in the am.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AS ERNESTO
WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 96.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM N OF OAXACA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



WHY 2 AM UPDATE ... now TD
hey guys I guess I was right with convection going to blow up on TD 7 that is what it is doing now on the SW side of the circulation so HA HA HA I was RIGHT
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, I live in hope... and I don't mean Hope Town, Abaco, either... lol

The blog keeps resetting to "show Average", which I'm taking as a sign to sign off for the nonce...

g'night 2 all, and etc...



Night Baha!

TD 07 not looking especially healthy tonight, much of the deep convection well to the WSW of the surface circulation where better upper divergence and instability exists.
I suspect it won't be long before TS watches/warnings are initiated for the Leeward Islands.
It might be hard to make out, but Dog and Easy together:

Quoting tropicfreak:
I suspect it won't be long before TS watches/warnings are initiated for the Leeward Islands.

well Advisory#2 said TS watches would be up for the windwards by morning
"000
WTNT32 KNHC 100236
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 45.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY
MORNING
."
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Ok, since we've now turned this blog into a support group, who wants to share the storms they have been through?

Not being sarcastic. It should help pass the time.


That I can remember, TS Allison & Lee; Hurricanes Andrew, Georges, Lilli, Katrina, Rita, Humberto & Gustav! Yea..we've had our fair share in Louisiana :(
Quoting atmosweather:


Night Baha!

TD 07 not looking especially healthy tonight, much of the deep convection well to the WSW of the surface circulation where better upper divergence and instability exists.
The same problem Ernesto had. Notice the 850 mb. vort extends down near the coast of NE South America.
EURO takes the blob that was td7 on a northerly track over the big islands to Florida

Quoting atmosweather:


Night Baha!

TD 07 not looking especially healthy tonight, much of the deep convection well to the WSW of the surface circulation where better upper divergence and instability exists.

not anymore

its on the SW side of the circulation or right on top developing like I said it would happen earler
Quoting 1900hurricane:
This happened the year I was born:



Were you born in 1900?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no it was the 8th storm


# Name Date Wind Pres Cat
1 Tropical Storm ALBERTO 5- 8 AUG 35 1002 -
2 Tropical Storm BERYL 8-10 AUG 45 1001 -
3 Tropical Storm CHRIS 21-30 AUG 45 1005 -
4 Hurricane DEBBY 31 AUG- 8 SEP 65 987 1
5 Tropical Storm ERNESTO 3- 5 SEP 55 994 -
6 Tropical Storm #6 7-10 SEP 50 994 -
7 Hurricane FLORENCE 7-11 SEP 70 983 1
8 Hurricane GILBERT 8-20 SEP 160 888 5
9 Hurricane HELENE 19-30 SEP 125 938 4
10 Tropical Storm ISAAC 28 SEP- 1 OCT 40 1005 -
11 Hurricane JOAN 10-23 OCT 125 932 4
12 Tropical Storm KEITH 17-26 NOV 65 945 -


After review, the ruling on the field is reversed...Gilbert was cyclone #8 ;p

I won't trust wikipedia anymore haha.
Quoting atmosweather:


After review, the ruling on the field is reversed...Gilbert was cyclone #8 ;p

I won't trust wikipedia anymore haha.


I can fix that. Done plenty of Wikipedia editing before, or I can ask my friend to do it as well.
Quoting atmosweather:


After review, the ruling on the field is reversed...Gilbert was cyclone #8 ;p

I won't trust wikipedia anymore haha.

lol so Gilbert is the storm of the 8's
Quoting AllStar17:


Were you born in 1900?


so still blogging at 112 years old???? lol
1093. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not anymore

its on the SW side of the circulation or right on top developing like I said it would happen earler


If it can maintain and expand that it should look fairly decent in the morning.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not anymore

its on the SW side of the circulation or right on top developing like I said it would happen earler


DMAX and good upper divergence is causing the blowup but the circulation envelope is extremely elongated and there are virtually no banding features with any of the convection. It has a long fight ahead of it. But it is trying pretty damn hard.
Quoting JLPR2:


If it can maintain and expand that it should look fairly decent in the morning.

I think it will upper atmospheare has gained som soisture around it and shear is not bad so should be able to expand with D-MAX arriving
Quoting atmosweather:


DMAX and good upper divergence is causing the blowup but the circulation envelope is extremely elongated and there are virtually no banding features with any of the convection. It has a long fight ahead of it. But it is trying pretty damn hard.

hmm yeah yet though it could start up between now and midday today
Quoting atmosweather:


DMAX and good upper divergence is causing the blowup but the circulation envelope is extremely elongated and there are virtually no banding features with any of the convection. It has a long fight ahead of it. But it is trying pretty damn hard.


Downcaster! Lol. Jk. You've got to watch out for those people like MississippiWx that change info on Wikipedia. Lol!
hmm 06Z
AL, 07, 2012081006, , BEST, 0, 136N, 463W, 30, 1008, TD
WSW movement and pressure droped to 1008mb
and location puts it right under the new convection area
and there we go models shift Swards should this continue the models will take it into the Caribbean
Quoting AllStar17:


Downcaster! Lol. Jk. You've got to watch out for those people like MississippiWx that change info on Wikipedia. Lol!


I do no such thing!
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionSeven for 10August6amGMT:
MinimumPressure decreased from 1009millibars to1008millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 30knots(35mph)56km/h
Vector changed from 270.2*West@19mph(30.6km/h) to 266.8*West@19.1mph(30.7km/h)

POS-Trinidad :: GND-Grenada :: BGI-Barbados

The easternmost dot on the kinked line is where 92L became a LOw again
The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where 92L became AL07
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TD.7's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TD.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
9August12pmGMT: AL07 had been headed for passage over SangreGrande (rightPOSdumbbell)
9August6pmGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over GrantleyAdamsInternationalAirport (bottomBGIblob)
10August12amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over Bathsheba (topBGIblob)
10August6amGMT: TD.7 was heading for passage over HighCliffPoint in ~2days5hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste pos-10.595n61.023w, bgi-13.09n59.457w-13.198n59.488w, gnd, 12.1n31.2w- 12.7n32.5w- 13.3n33.9w- 13.9n35.4w- 14.1n37.0w- 14.1n38.5w- 13.9n40.0w- 13.7n41.7w, 13.7n41.7w-13.7n42.9w, 13.7n42.9w-13.7n44.6w, 13.7n44.6w-13.6n46.3w, 13.7n44.6w-12.191n61.602w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
by the looks of it TD 7 made its first band

though rather small
now the convection thats over the center is now conected to to blob to its SW something explosive is about to happen
1105. JLPR2
And there we go! Finally a dot of red.


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
quite dangerous


Whats that up by the UK at that time looks potent?
Getting some gusty winds and thunder with this latest storm....



.... woke me up...
Quoting JLPR2:
And there we go! Finally a dot of red.



right the circulation is just S of that red dot near 13.6N 46.8W moving WSW with 1008mb anywayI'm going to bed and I;ll be up by 400am
Quoting farupnorth:


Whats that up by the UK at that time looks potent?


LOL just had to go look at what you were referring to! I can't tell by that map, but we often get either tropical remnants or big storms that come from arctic way. Some I imagine are like a Cat 1 hurricane LOL Especially where I live in the mountains in Wales, squeezes all the wind and rain out of everything.

Just got up and thought I'd see if Ernesto has made it intact to the Pac yet...so close! Will they let him make it named though?! Trying to get back to sleep in a few I think though LOL
Quoting aspectre:
271 mitthbevnuruodo: Not that I know of. In the UK, they tend to refer to us as Yanks. But they tend to mean it in some sort of negative way (which they have for nearly everyone) and being from California, find it odd to be referred to as a Yank anyway, never having even been to the east coast or New York! To me, dude and man are pretty typical from Calif.
271 Grothar: How do you think the guys from Georgia felt when they went to the UK and were called "Yanks"?

So is the British usage&attitude toward 'guy' (versus US attitude) derived from GuyFawkes?


Oh what a noob! I replied to this just before bed and totally read it wrong! You will probably never even see my reply anyway...but they don't really even use 'guys' here actually. So when I say 'you guys' and it's girls, or a mix, they're a bit weird, as to them they think it's 'just' a male word, but for me, it's gender neutral....to me like if I said, 'hey people' LOL. As for Guy Falkes, if it were because of him, I don't think it would seem a negative as he seems more revered than anything! Guy Falkes day is SO big here, like 4th of July. And being how many hate the gov these days, it's only elevated him more. Certainly non-London anyway, I've always been in the N/W of the country, and the attitudes are very diff from London and the S/E. Like the likely diff between Calif and Texas!
Yeah, read your earlier reply. I try to read the entire blog... when I have the time... and when the comments aren't flying too fast&furious
Evenin troops!!!
Quoting aspectre:
Yeah, read your earlier reply. I try to read the entire blog... when I have the time... and when the comments aren't flying too fast&furious


haha ok! I just didn't think you'd see this last one as reckoned you were prob asleep like the rest of them! Just thought I'd say I realised I didn't even read your question right anyway durrr!

When I get up it's always after everyone in the US has been on all night, today wasn't as bad as some...was page 8 when I went to bed and 23 when I woke up, sometimes it's way more than that LOL goes by so fast sometimes, just can't keep up when I am awake LOL
1114. luigi18
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
EURO takes the blob that was td7 on a northerly track over the big islands to Florida



Ouch!! Puerto Rico
Good morning, everyone.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of it TD 7 made its first band

though rather small


if you're referring to the arc of storms extending to its south (im not sure if you are or not), then i'd have to disagree :/

looks more like "blow out" from the area of convection that collapsed to its northeast.. its also arced the wrong way to be a band. this puppy still has some work to do... at least that's my take at the moment.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
and there we go models shift Swards should this continue the models will take it into the Caribbean


The GFS is still favoring the carribean as is the CMC (I can't believe I'm mentioning that)...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of it TD 7 made its first band

though rather small


That actually looks like outflow from decaying convection...it doesn't follow any circulation for it to be banding...
Good Morning, haven't slept yet, but going to just now so goodnight. I leave you with TD 7's forecast discussion:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 10 2012

THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED
OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE REVEALED A
SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL BAND OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41041
REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KT AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1010.9 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED ABOUT 30 TO 40 N MI
SOUTH OF THE BUOY AROUND 0600 UTC. BASED ON THE BUOY
OBSERVATIONS AND LACK OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE...THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SSTS AND REMAIN IN
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...DRY
AIR NEAR THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AS IT NEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS INCREASING SHEAR WILL
LIKELY HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AND SHOW IT BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE
WEAKENING...BUT THAT IS ONE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS
SMALL...MAKING IT MORE PRONE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT
17 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING
AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS STEERED WESTWARD BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BEYOND THREE DAYS THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS MODEL.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 13.6N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 13.6N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 13.7N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 13.9N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 14.3N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 15.3N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 16.5N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
A CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED
MAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. ERNESTO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/11...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A NEW
TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 36 TO 48 HR. PLEASE SEE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON THIS POSSIBILITY.


VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER ERNESTO
DISSIPATES...AND THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 18.0N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1800Z 17.9N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND REMNANT LOW
24H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Looks that 93L will be Gordon if td7 Doesn`t strength at the 11am update.
Link
My forecast for T.D 7
I love the 6Z NOGAPS. The LinkNorthern Leewards need rain!!!

1124. WxLogic
Good Morning...
TD7 crossing the windwards and leaving the leewards dry is like an insult because they got Enersto and a recent wet twave right after!
NHC is discounting EURO... NOGAPS.. BAMs... UKMET... HWRF. GFS is god it seems!
1127. WxLogic
500MB VORT still lacking with TD7:



Not surprised since its moving at quite a good pace and therefore preventing an even greater organization at upper levels.

On the other hand 850MB VORT is doing pretty good:




One area to note and that's near the Bahamas region... it appears a SFC low might try to get going since 850/700MB VORT has been on the increase with the associated WX being experienced in that area.
Good Morning!

I am looking forward to your comments today to see what comes next.
1129. LargoFl
...................good morning folks
1130. LargoFl
1131. VR46L
93L looks really good in Rainbow



and ok in funktop



and at the moment is lower in pressure than TD7

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Friday, August 10, 2012 6:00 Z

Location at the time:
318 statue miles (511 km) to the E (83°) from Praia, Cape Verde.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
30 knots (~35 mph | 15 m/s | 56 km/h)

Pressure:
1004 mb (29.65 inHg | 1004 hPa)

Coordinates:
15.5N 18.8W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data
1132. VR46L
TD 7 in Rainbow even in rainbow appears a bit of a mess



TD7 in Funktop hmmm



Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Friday, August 10, 2012 6:00 Z

Location at the time:
896 statue miles (1443 km) to the E (88) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
30 knots (~35 mph | 15 m/s | 56 km/h)

Pressure:
1008 mb (29.77 inHg | 1008 hPa)

Coordinates:
13.6N 46.3W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data
Quoting CaribBoy:
NHC is discounting EURO... NOGAPS.. BAMs... UKMET... HWRF. GFS is god it seems!


Well, the GFS has been handling things quite well this season, particularly in the long term. So we'll see how it plays out. I prefer a blend of the GFS and the BAMs...maybe a track just a hair south of what the CMC is calling.
Good morning. Very little change it TD 7 last night. It's struggling with two things: Dry air and a fast forward motion.



93L should be a TD at 5 this evening.

1135. pcola57
.
watching.all.clouds
I'm loving the dry air keeping it from getting stronger. And love that today is Friday. Hope all have a wonderful Friday!
Incredibly hot and humid this morning. Storms should fire again this afternoon
1139. Grothar
Quoting pcola57:
.


Don't want to talk in the morning either, eh, P?
1140. SLU
10/0545 UTC 13.7N 46.2W T1.5/1.5 07L -- Atlantic
Quoting WxLogic:
500MB VORT still lacking with TD7:



Not surprised since its moving at quite a good pace and therefore preventing an even greater organization at upper levels.

On the other hand 850MB VORT is doing pretty good:




One area to note and that's near the Bahamas region... it appears a SFC low might try to get going since 850/700MB VORT has been on the increase with the associated WX being experienced in that area.

Agreed about Bahamas area. Also need to watch the area between Honduras and Jamaica.
Quoting islander101010:
watching.all.clouds
my.characters.donation.to.the.world
1143. LargoFl
Quoting weatherh98:
Incredibly hot and humid this morning. Storms should fire again this afternoon
.....yes same here,hot and humid, and the clouds along the gulf are sort of building ..going to be an interesting afternoon here
1144. Grothar
Looks very unlikely that 93L will make it across the Atlantic. TD 7 models have shifted a little North, except for the GFS.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 101136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERNESTO...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 930 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE IS
PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
AFRICA. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
1146. LargoFl
...................so far so good around my area..lets see how today goes..
Quoting Grothar:
Looks very unlikely that 93L will make it across the Atlantic. TD 7 models have shifted a little North, except for the GFS.
think 07 will be Gordon?
1148. LargoFl
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
AVOYELLES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...MOREAUVILLE...MARKSVILLE...EFFIE...BUNK IE...
BORDELONVILLE...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 628 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...6 MILES EAST OF EFFIE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE OPHELIA NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE BY 635 AM CDT...
MARKSVILLE BY 645 AM CDT...
HESSMER BY 700 AM CDT...
MANSURA AND BORDELONVILLE BY 705 AM CDT...
MOREAUVILLE BY 715 AM CDT...
COTTONPORT...BIG BEND AND BUNKIE BY 720 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.



PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3130 9200 3129 9201 3123 9199 3125 9194
3128 9195 3131 9191 3125 9181 3123 9179
3123 9176 3119 9167 3114 9171 3109 9170
3086 9219 3127 9220 3134 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1128Z 339DEG 15KT 3122 9205


MM
1149. Grothar


1150. Patrap
TD 7 Night IR to Day RGB

1151. Grothar
Quoting allancalderini:
think 07 will be Gordon?


Probably, but it is going to be struggle for awhile.
Dry air and shear will be a problem for a few days.

A tremendous lightning storm rolled through my area yesterday afternoon (NE Georgia). The lightning bolts were unbelievably powerful, with crackling thunder and ground shaking. Megabolts, I think they’re called. At least 50 of the super bolts and many more of the more usual type. That got me thinking:

I’ve read that 10,000 lightning bolts per second flash worldwide and can be perceived by some weather satellites.

Does anyone keep track of Coulombs per second that are released with those bolts? That would or could be another measure of how the atmosphere is getting more energy with the increased water vapor (four percent.)

Expert opinion would be appreciated.
1153. LargoFl
1154. LargoFl
1155. Patrap
06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD #7

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

1156. Grothar
I noticed that the evening shift was making a list of the Hurricanes they were in. Maybe I'll start one. I should be done in about a month.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 665 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF WEAKENING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERNESTO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1158. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
I noticed that the evening shift was making a list of the Hurricanes they were in. Maybe I'll start one. I should be done in about a month.
...LOL
1159. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:


Probably, but it is going to be struggle for awhile.
Dry air and shear will be a problem for a few days.

Maybe they would upgrade it at 5pm.
Quoting Grothar:
I noticed that the evening shift was making a list of the Hurricanes they were in. Maybe I'll start one. I should be done in about a month.


Lol, well since I was born and raised right in the middle of Hurricane alley (Puerto Rico) and then moved to Mississippi (Katrina) I have quite a few systems to talk about form David to Hug to George which hit both my houses the one in Puerto Rico and then the one in Mississippi. Oh and Katrina which finished the job.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 665 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF WEAKENING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERNESTO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
sadly it won`t retain the name Ernesto it would probably be Hector.
1163. LargoFl
1164. luigi18
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Lol, well since I was born and raised right in the middle of Hurricane alley (Puerto Rico) and then moved to Mississippi (Katrina) I have quite a few systems to talk about form David to Hug to George which hit both my houses the one in Puerto Rico and then the one in Mississippi.


i hope no cane hit us then here PR , please!
Rain coming
1166. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD #7

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts



I can match you model for model, Pat! :) How you doing, Pat?



1167. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Rain coming
..yep looks like you guys down there get all the action today,nws says heavy rains..hope it gets around the sarasota-ft meyers area..they still need the rains i heard
1168. Grothar
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Lol, well since I was born and raised right in the middle of Hurricane alley (Puerto Rico) and then moved to Mississippi (Katrina) I have quite a few systems to talk about form David to Hug to George which hit both my houses the one in Puerto Rico and then the one in Mississippi. Oh and Katrina which finished the job.



The first one I actually remember was in 1948 in Fort Lauderdale. Do you really want to match me? LOL

And that is 1948 not 1848.
1169. LargoFl
.........................................looks like Patrap gets alot of action today as well around his area
1170. Grothar
Quoting LargoFl:
..yep looks like you guys down there get all the action today,nws says heavy rains..hope it gets around the sarasota-ft meyers area..they still need the rains i heard


You still dry up there? We really haven't got much of anything. One of the driest summers I can remember.
TD 7 can it go to S FL??
1172. Grothar
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
TD 7 can it go to S FL??


These systems go anywhere they want to. But at this time it is unlikely. It would probably have to be pretty strong to lift that much North. But there is some troughiness about the time it moves into the Antilles so it could move a little more WNW in a few days.
Quoting Grothar:



The first one I actually remember was in 1948 in Fort Lauderdale. Do you really want to match me? LOL

And that is 1948 not 1848.


I doubt I can beat that record lol. I must say. David happened when I was a kid, and it got me hooked on Hurricanes I learned to track them learned what coordinates meant and what make Hurricanes work. Katrina on the other side made me hate them. With Katrina I learned everything about loosing your home and fighting with the insurance people. Oh I also learned how it feels to be dropped by insurers with Katrina, and that MREs can be really tasty but full of calories. lol.
it could, anything can happen but this scenario as of now seems unlikely due to the strong high above TD7 which is forecast to steer it westward across the caribbean.
Good Morning. Looks like we are in the middle of an early August potential CV storm cluster which stated with Ernesto. Pretty incredible when you consider that this type of cluster does not usually start until mid-August to early-September most seasons. However, two of the X factors which have limited major hurricane status so far has been lots of dry air in the Central Atlantic and the relatively hostile conditions in the Eastern Caribbean which is also pretty typical for late-July early August.

The dry air and Sal issues in the Central Atlantic will be critical over the next several weeks as the ITCZ has been very dry lately. If you factor in the next MJO arrival into the Atlantic basin, and the ITCZ moistens up as usual, we could start to see development before nearing the Lesser Antilles but no go so far.

The most recent SAL chart (below) shows that that the AOI at 50% currently leaving Africa will not have as much of a dry air issue but you can see that TD7 is going to have a very tough time with dry air between now and arrival at the Lesser Antilles. This one is going to have a tough time just like Ernesto in the short term.

Link
THX!:)
Quoting Grothar:


These systems go anywhere they want to. But at this time it is unlikely. It would probably have to be pretty strong to lift that much North. But there is some troughiness about the time it moves into the Antilles so it could move a little more WNW in a few days.
1177. Grothar
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Lol, well since I was born and raised right in the middle of Hurricane alley (Puerto Rico) and then moved to Mississippi (Katrina) I have quite a few systems to talk about form David to Hug to George which hit both my houses the one in Puerto Rico and then the one in Mississippi. Oh and Katrina which finished the job.


Ever think of moving? Looks like you pick really bad places to live. :)
Tropical Depression ERNESTO


interesting computer model runs but even if it becomes a strong tropical cyclone it's strength could get less due to the strong trade winds and dry air. If that is the cast, probably a w or wsw trend. what would be bad is if it gains enough latitude early from strengthening and then if the High moves westward and stronger, there are higher chances of landfalling impacts unless of course a trough picks it up.
1180. Grothar
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Looks like we are in the middle of an early August potential CV storm cluster which stated with Ernesto. Pretty incredible when you consider that this type of cluster does not usually start until mid-August to early-September most seasons. However, two of the X factors which have limited major hurricane status so far has been lots of dry air in the Central Atlantic and the relatively hostile conditions in the Easter Caribbean which is also pretty typical for late-July early August.

The dry air and Sal issues in the Central Atlantic will be critical over the next several weeks as the ITCZ has been very dry lately. If you factor in the next MJO arrival into the Atlantic basin, and the ITCZ moistens up as usual, we could start to see development before nearing the Lesser Antilles but no go so far.

The most recent SAL chart (below) shows that that invest at 50% currently leaving Africa will not have as much of a dry air issue but you can see that TD7 is going to have a very tough time with dry air between now and arrival at the Lesser Antilles. This one is going to have a tough time just like Ernesto in the short term.

Link


You covered pretty much what is happening in the entire basin.
For the Florida wishcasters-06 NOGAPS takes td 7 into Florida Aug.17th as a TS.
Can i see that??
Quoting unknowncomic:
For the Florida wishcasters-06 NOGAPS takes td 7 into Florida Aug.17th as a TS.
i wonder if invest 93 would recurve as quick and as much as these models show.
Is there a story why is wasn't named Ft. Grothar?
On the CMC go W
Quoting kshipre1:
i wonder if invest 93 would recurve as quick and as much as these models show.
lol - must be a pretty strong trough for that to happen.
1188. bappit
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

Link

heres more proof

Interesting link inside the article you linked. First newspaper weather map:

1189. Grothar
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


I doubt I can beat that record lol. I must say. David happened when I was a kid, and it got me hooked on Hurricanes I learned to track them learned what coordinates meant and what make Hurricanes work. Katrina on the other side made me hate them. With Katrina I learned everything about loosing your home and fighting with the insurance people. Oh I also learned how it feels to be dropped by insurers with Katrina, and that MREs can be really tasty but full of calories. lol.


Most of us in coastal Florida got dropped by all the insurance companies. When I was young, like a lot of kids, I wanted a hurricane to hit. But when you have a family and a home, you have a different perspective.
Quoting Grothar:


You covered pretty much what is happening in the entire basin.


What stands out to me the most from the past several weeks is that dryness in the ITCZ. Each wave recently, including Ernesto, have developed within a very small moisture envelope and they have not left much behind after passing through. It's the biggest issue at the moment in spite of warm SST's and relatively favorable sheer.

The other issue is the speed of the waves; Ernesto never got the chance to align properly until he slowed down in the Western Caribbean and TD7 is presently booking along at 20 mph..........Too fast for any significant development before arrival in the Lesser Antilles IMHO.
could make sense that 93L recurves quick due to rapid strengthening but who knows, models this early sometimes do not have a good grasp on these things.
1192. bappit
Must have been a WUBA. Important to note where the weather was dull.
180HR
you said it perfectly. I was watching the hurricane expert on the weather channel yesterday and he was saying that two possible deterrents to tropical formation in the atlantic this season could be very fast trade winds and dry air. On the other hand, closer to home (gulf and caribbean), chances are slightly higher due to near normal trade wind speeds, very warm water.
looks like shear is less.
1196. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:


You still dry up there? We really haven't got much of anything. One of the driest summers I can remember.
..well this morning the clouds here on the gulf are building and getting higher,looks like the storms will start early, we here just might get some rain this morning regardless of the forecast
1197. icmoore
Good morning, this FL wishcaster only wishes them away from Florida, now is it working? :)

Madeira Beach, FL
Mostly Cloudy
82 °F
(28 °C) Humidity: 88 %
Wind Speed: SE 6 MPH
Barometer: 29.97" (1014.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 78 °F (26 °C)
Heat Index: 91 °F (33 °
1198. LargoFl
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


What stands out to me the most from the past several weeks is that dryness in the ITCZ. Each wave recently, including Ernesto, have developed within a very small moisture envelope and they have not left much behind after passing through. It's the biggest issue at the moment in spite of warm SST's and relatively favorable sheer.

The other issue is the speed of the waves; Ernesto never got the chance to align properly until he slowed down in the Western Caribbean and TD7 is presently booking along at 20 mph..........Too fast for any significant development before arrival in the Lesser Antilles IMHO.
storms.like.ike.are.rare...dangerous.yr.ahead
1200. Grothar
Quoting gordydunnot:
Is there a story why is wasn't named Ft. Grothar?


It actually was a fort originally.
Goodbye, Ernesto. Happy trails!

AL, 05, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 180N, 985W, 20, 1005, PT, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, D,
1202. LargoFl
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
741 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...CYPRESS CREEK AT
WORTHINGTON GARDENS...

...SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE CAUSED THE WATER LEVEL ON THE
CYPRESS CREEK TO RISE TO JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WITHOUT ADDTIONAL
RAIN TODAY...THE RIVER SHOULD CREST TODAY AND FALL BACK BELOW FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC101-110041-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120811T1200Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.120810T0430Z.120810T1100Z.120811T0600 Z.NO/
741 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON
GARDENS
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 7AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 0 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 8 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AT THE RECREATION AREA ON
STATE ROAD 54
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.7
FEET ON AUG 11 2004.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SAT SUN MON TUE WED

CYPRESS CREEK
WORTHINGTON 8 8.0 FRI 07 AM 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.0 MSG

$$
Quoting kshipre1:
you said it perfectly. I was watching the hurricane expert on the weather channel yesterday and he was saying that two possible deterrents to tropical formation in the atlantic this season could be very fast trade winds and dry air. On the other hand, closer to home (gulf and caribbean), chances are slightly higher due to near normal trade wind speeds, very warm water.


I missed that on TV but it is pretty obvious....I think Levi addressed the issue of the trade wind speeds several day ago. That would be a good question for Dr. M later as to potential reasons for these relatively high speeds..........You really need that slower 10-12 mph speed for proper vertical stacking and further development.

At the moment, and particularly looking at the WV loops, TD7 is the most anemic looking tropical depression I have ever seen classified in a long time but what do I know.............
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Can i see that??

Here is the web address
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxma p_DOD_area.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&set=Tropical
1205. SLU
10/1145 UTC 13.7N 47.8W T1.0/1.5 07L -- Atlantic


Struggling...
1206. Grothar
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


What stands out to me the most from the past several weeks is that dryness in the ITCZ. Each wave recently, including Ernesto, have developed within a very small moisture envelope and they have not left much behind after passing through. It's the biggest issue at the moment in spite of warm SST's and relatively favorable sheer.

The other issue is the speed of the waves; Ernesto never got the chance to align properly until he slowed down in the Western Caribbean and TD7 is presently booking along at 20 mph..........Too fast for any significant development before arrival in the Lesser Antilles IMHO.


The paradox. Most conditions are favorable and the ones you mention are unfavorable. I guess these systems are fussy. They want things just right. A lot of storms have formed moving fast, but these don't have much of a chance because of the conditions you mentioned.
1207. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
Looks very unlikely that 93L will make it across the Atlantic. TD 7 models have shifted a little North, except for the GFS.



POLL: Will 93L make a US landfall
A)YES
B)NO
If you answeres "YES" Then explain where it will make landfall.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
180HR

Looks like low shear!
1210. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

$$
BS
Nice blow up in the caribbean...
you are right. I think heard somewhere that during hurricane seasons which tend to transition from enso or la nina to el nino, trade winds pick up; however, I can remember in 2010 and 2011, trade winds and dry air were supposed to be very low but were not as the seasons were la nina and la nina to enso, respectively. it just seems since 2009, regardless of which stage (el nino, enso or la nina) there has been lots of wind and dry air.
*wakes up*
*checks nhc*
*sees not much*
*slinks over to Wunderground*
*grins*

Good morning everyone...
Cyclogenisis is actually rare and conditions have to be perfect at the same time for any particular storm to reach its full (hurricane) potential. From Mariners Guide to Tropical Cyclones:

1. A pre-existing surface disturbance with thunderstorms.

2. Relatively moist atmospheric layers in the middle troposphere, approximately 10,000-20,000 ft above the earth%u2019s surface.

3. Warm (at least 79F or 26C) ocean temperatures with a mixed layer depth of about 200 feet.

4. Light winds aloft that do not change much in direction and speed throughout the depth of the
atmosphere (low vertical wind shear). In other words, the ideal tropical cyclone will have its
cyclonic circulation in the middle & upper levels of the atmosphere located directly above the
cyclonic circulation of the surface & low levels of the atmosphere.


5. Must be poleward of about 5 degrees north latitude in order to meet minimum threshold values
for the Coriolis Force.

6. Upper-level outflow over a system serves to remove mass from the top of the vertical column
in a tropical cyclone.

In a complex relationship, these six factors are interdependent. The absence or change in one of the
ingredients often results in a change or loss in one or more of the other factors.


During an idealized case of tropical cyclogenesis, the following events would occur on the order of
days with different factors occurring simultaneously or near-simultaneously throughout the developing phase of a tropical cyclone.
1215. ncstorm
Good Morning..I see SPC updated and added a huge part of SC along with my area..we already have thunderstorms this morning



Grothar,last historical question of the day did you know the barefoot mailman or was that your first job?
hey guys so what are the models saying about the wave in the caribbean is it going to hit florida because i think the steering currents are going to force it to florida if it goes in the gom
1218. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
*wakes up*
*checks nhc*
*sees not much*
*slinks over to Wunderground*
*grins*

Good morning everyone...


Mornin' GS
TD7's pressure is up one millibar:

AL, 07, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 137N, 480W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,

Meanwhile, 93L is nearly there:

AL, 93, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 160N, 206W, 30, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
1220. ncstorm
Nogaps with TD 7
Hi Grothar. Look how well organized is this Central African wave at low latitude.

Quoting Neapolitan:
TD7's pressure is up one millibar:

AL, 07, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 137N, 480W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,


Like I said earlier, this is the most weak looking tropical depression I have seen in a long time but you never know what will happen down the road with it....
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 August 2012

Link
1225. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Grothar. Look how well organized is this Central African wave at low latitude.



Yep, We've been watching that one for a few days, huh, Tropics?
Quoting CaribBoy:
TD7 crossing the windwards and leaving the leewards dry is like an insult because they got Enersto and a recent wet twave right after!


Right, just for you I'm going to do a wishcast forecast of 93L...gonna track south of the computer models and it's outerbands at cat 2 will brush your island! Now wouldn't be funny if it actually did?! LOL


Awww, doesn't look like Ernesto's going to make it!

am off to work and unlike a lot of people can't go online while working even by my phone, so look forward to seeing what's going on come about 1am UK time when I get home. Y'all have a good Friday
Quoting ncstorm:
Nogaps with TD 7
undefined



Is that a TS off the east coast of FL on that map or something else?
1228. MTWX
Quoting AussieStorm:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 August 2012

Link


How's winter been treating you guys down there Aussie??
1229. Grothar
Quoting gordydunnot:
Grothar,last historical question of the day did you know the barefoot mailman or was that your first job?


Well, in our day they were not known by that name. I believe it wasn't until the book "The Barefoot Mailman" was written that the term came into use. It is a very good book by the way.

My first real job, (after apprenticing on sailing ships crossing into the New World), was teaching young people manners and etiquette. It has served me well. It is a behavior which I practice to this day. I am always respectful to everyone.
Quoting Grothar:


Yep, We've been watching that one for a few days, huh, Tropics?



Who here is watching ex-Florence still?
1231. ncstorm
Quoting NCweatherwatcher:



Is that a TS off the east coast of FL on that map or something else?


yes its a tropical storm
1232. Grothar
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:



POLL: Will 93L make a US landfall
A)YES
B)NO
If you answeres "YES" Then explain where it will make landfall.


Spain looks like a good candidate right now.
1233. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
TD 7 can it go to S FL??


maybe if it holds on imo models seem to be going that way this am more of athreat right now then 93l which is going to go fishing
1234. Grothar
Quoting NCweatherwatcher:



Is that a TS off the east coast of FL on that map or something else?


something else.

interesting to see that in the 12Z model run for TD7 that the models have shifted S and W with the only model that does opposite is the BAMD
1236. ncstorm




Link seems as though GFS is in agreement with the NOGAPS there is a TS or TD of the east coast of CONUS around that same time period, though GFS has it moving faster to the north and impacting the Far E provinces of Canada.
Here is the am NCEP Caribbean Desk discussion. They defer to NHC as to the potential tropical storm but not a lot of rain forecasted for the Caribbean islands because of the Southern track:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
734 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. WEAK UPPER RIDGE CENTERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO WHILE MUCH STRONGER RIDGE AT MID-LEVELS CENTERS AT 32N 62W. AT LOW LEVELS...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXTENDED ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE PERIPHERY OF AZORES HIGH...AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WAS ESTABLISHING ABOVE 850 HPA...YET...THE INVERSION WAS NOT STRONG.

MODELS CONTINUE CONFIDENT ABOUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASING THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER RIDGE PATTERNS. CHANCES WILL START INCREASING AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARRIVES FROM THE ATLANTIC. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS. INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL ALLOW THE FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE CORDILLERA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ARRIVE RAPIDLY OFFSHORE. OTHER THAN THESE STORMS...EXPECTING SHALLOW CONVECTION THROUGH THE CYCLE TO PRODUCE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE HRWRF-ARW IS CAPTURING A MORE REALISTIC PATTERN IN CONVECTION SINCE RESOLVES MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR STORM MOTION.

ON ARRIVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EXPECTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA 20-40MM/DAY. ACCORDING TO ADJUSTMENTS IN TRACK AND STORM INTENSITY...ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIPITATION FORECASTS MAY BE NECESSARY.

CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)


1239. pcola57
Quoting Grothar:


Don't want to talk in the morning either, eh, P?


G'morning Gro..
Not really..thought I was on "Ignore" for the early morning folks..
Went for my walk and 2nd coffee..I'm ready as I ever will be for today.. :)


93L looking like a biggie already..
1240. Msdrown
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Cyclogenisis is actually rare and conditions have to be perfect at the same time for any particular storm to reach its full (hurricane) potential.

For a newby that was good.
1241. Grothar
Ernesto is really trying hard.

Quoting Grothar:
Ernesto is really trying hard.



Ernesto might do better in the East Pacific.........
ULL in the NW Caribbean moving WNW-NW should cause shear to weaken across the Caribbean I truly think the only main inhibiting factor for TD7 is the dry air and if TD7 can over come this by building a moisture field then TD7 should not have too much problems
Morning all, Just arrived on marco island for a months holiday! (vacation) :) What are the chances of south Florida getting a piece of td7? We're about due a storm here. Back to lurking ;) TIA
1245. Relix
I am not even sure TD7 will make it to the islands at this point o.0
Updated coordinates on TD07:

AL, 07, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 136N, 486W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,
1247. pcola57
Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:
Morning all, Just arrived on marco island for a months holiday! (vacation) :) What are the chances of south Florida getting a piece of td7? We're about due a storm here. Back to lurking ;) TIA


Too early for me to say..
I'd give 48hrs. and then we should have a better idea..not perfection though.. :)
Quoting MTWX:


How's winter been treating you guys down there Aussie??


We are under 2 warnings right now.

Severe Weather Warning for damaging surf

Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds

These strong winds have caused havoc around Sydney and surrounding areas.

Here is Fire and Rescue NSW news page on this severe weather
AL, 93, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 160N, 206W, 30, 1004, DB
Quoting ncstorm:
Nogaps with TD 7


NOGAPS did well with Ernesto.
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionSeven for 10August12pmGMT:
MinimumPressure increased from 1008millibars to1009millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 30knots(35mph)56km/h
Vector changed from 266.8*West@19.1mph(30.7km/h) to 270.3*West@25.8mph(41.5km/h)

POS-Trinidad :: GND-Grenada :: BGI-Barbados :: SLU-St.Lucia

The easternmost dot on the kinked line is where 92L became a LOw again
The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where 92L became AL07
The next dot to the right is where AL07 became TD.7
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TD.7's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TD.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
9August12pmGMT: AL07 had been headed for passage over SangreGrande (rightPOSdumbbell)
9August6pmGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over GrantleyAdamsInternationalAirport (bottomBGIblob)
10August12amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over Bathsheba (middleBGIblob)
10August6amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over HighCliffPoint (topGNDdumbbell)
10August12pmGMT: TD.7 was heading for passage over LittleBay in ~1day3hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste pos-10.595n61.023w, bgi-13.09n59.457w-13.198n59.488w, gnd-12.191n61.602w, slu, 12.1n31.2w- 12.7n32.5w- 13.3n33.9w- 13.9n35.4w- 14.1n37.0w- 14.1n38.5w- 13.9n40.0w- 13.7n41.7w, 13.7n41.7w-13.7n42.9w, 13.7n42.9w-13.7n44.6w, 13.7n44.6w-13.6n46.3w, 13.6n46.3w-13.6n48.6w, 13.6n46.3w-13.31n59.579w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Doppler Wind

Click for loop.
Quoting jascott1967:


NOGAPS did well with Ernesto.


NOGAPS did well with genesis of Ernensto and GFS was pretty accurate once it was formed, but failed to form it correctly in the beginning. So I guess we could try rely on those two for reference only of course.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Updated coordinates on TD07:

AL, 07, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 136N, 486W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,

ok that make more sense
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Cyclogenisis is actually rare and conditions have to be perfect at the same time for any particular storm to reach its full (hurricane) potential. From Mariners Guide to Tropical Cyclones:

1. A pre-existing surface disturbance with thunderstorms.

2. Relatively moist atmospheric layers in the middle troposphere, approximately 10,000-20,000 ft above the earth%u2019s surface.

3. Warm (at least 79F or 26C) ocean temperatures with a mixed layer depth of about 200 feet.

4. Light winds aloft that do not change much in direction and speed throughout the depth of the
atmosphere (low vertical wind shear). In other words, the ideal tropical cyclone will have its
cyclonic circulation in the middle & upper levels of the atmosphere located directly above the
cyclonic circulation of the surface & low levels of the atmosphere.


5. Must be poleward of about 5 degrees north latitude in order to meet minimum threshold values
for the Coriolis Force.

6. Upper-level outflow over a system serves to remove mass from the top of the vertical column
in a tropical cyclone.

In a complex relationship, these six factors are interdependent. The absence or change in one of the
ingredients often results in a change or loss in one or more of the other factors.


During an idealized case of tropical cyclogenesis, the following events would occur on the order of
days with different factors occurring simultaneously or near-simultaneously throughout the developing phase of a tropical cyclone.



No mention of 'vertical instability'. Sinking air was proposed as a reason why many storms failed to develop as expected in 2011. It's there agein, this year, probably as a result of the drought.
1256. yoboi
taz where is all the storms going???
Quoting aspectre:
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionSeven for 10August12pmGMT:
MinimumPressure increased from 1008millibars to1009millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 30knots(35mph)56km/h
Vector changed from 266.8°West@19.1mph(30.7km/h) to 273.6°West@19.1mph(30.7km/h)

POS-Trinidad :: href=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grenada>Grena da :: BGI-Barbados :: SLU-St.Lucia

The easternmost dot on the kinked line is where 92L became a LOw again
The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where 92L became AL07
The next dot to the right is where AL07 became TD.7
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TD.7's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TD.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
9August12pmGMT: AL07 had been headed for passage over SangreGrande (rightPOSdumbbell)
9August6pmGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over GrantleyAdamsInternational (bottomBGIblob)
10August12amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over Bathsheba (topBGIblob)
10August6amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over HighCliffPoint in ~2days5hours from now (when this comment was posted)
10August12pmGMT: TD.7 was heading for passage over CapeMarquis in ~1day20hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste pos-10.595n61.023w, bgi-13.09n59.457w-13.198n59.488w, gnd-12.191n61.602w, slu, 12.1n31.2w- 12.7n32.5w- 13.3n33.9w- 13.9n35.4w- 14.1n37.0w- 14.1n38.5w- 13.9n40.0w- 13.7n41.7w, 13.7n41.7w-13.7n42.9w, 13.7n42.9w-13.7n44.6w, 13.7n44.6w-13.6n46.3w, 13.6n46.3w-13.7n48.0w, 13.6n46.3w-14.06n60.892w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison

sorry dude but you are going to need to do some recalculations

AL, 07, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 136N, 486W, 30, 1009, TD,
1258. pcola57
Quoting AussieStorm:
Doppler Wind

Click for loop.


Nice looping pic.Aussie..
By the way I always thought you Austrailans have the coolest names for cities.. :)
Quoting yoboi:
taz where is all the storms going???




look at the mode runs
Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:
Morning all, Just arrived on marco island for a months holiday! (vacation) :) What are the chances of south Florida getting a piece of td7? We're about due a storm here. Back to lurking ;) TIA


It's over 2,000 miles away. Way too early to speculate. Check back every once in a while. IMO, TD7 doesn't make it. It is a small system with a lot of obstacles in front of it. If it does survive and reaches the western Caribbean then it may have a chance with better conditions. Much like Ernesto.
1261. ncstorm
this is the 00z UKMET..but it dissapates it

1262. 7544
their sayin td7 will be ts gorden sometime today ?
Quoting 7544:
their sayin td7 will be ts gorden sometime today ?

Who is saying that??
1264. ncstorm
from Allan Huffman

TD 7 Likely To Be Gordon

Invest93

The next system is a tropical wave currently passing through the Cape Verde Islands. This system has a ball of thunderstorms associated with it, but it has moved off rather far to the north around 17N. Most waves in this position unless they move WSW, traditionally have little chance of affecting land. This system could strengthen into a depression or storm in the next several days, most of the global models show this as well as the tropical models. But a WNW track looks likely and all the global data suggests a large trough over the eastern US next week would move into the western Atlantic and re-curve this system. I will watch it though.
Quoting Relix:
I am not even sure TD7 will make it to the islands at this point o.0

Don't get ahead of yourself...

Quoting AussieStorm:

Who is saying that??

The NHC.
I assume you are referring to possible Gordon right? If the ukmet does dissipate it then it is thinking like the GFS and Euro as per the NHC.
Good morning everyone. Whats the good word?
Advisories may be initiated later. If this happens, tropical cyclone watches and warnings will be required for the Cape Verde Islands.

Pretty uncommon.

seems to be about we were thinking. In respect to TD7, if that large trough is supposed to develop over the eastern US, I guess it will be too low in latitude to get pulled north by the trough.
1270. VR46L


Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Friday, August 10, 2012 12:00 Z

Location at the time:
208 statue miles (336 km) to the ENE (69°) from Praia, Cape Verde.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
30 knots (~35 mph | 15 m/s | 56 km/h)

Pressure:
1004 mb (29.65 inHg | 1004 hPa)

Coordinates:
16.0N 20.6W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data




Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Friday, August 10, 2012 12:00 Z

Location at the time:
742 statue miles (1194 km) to the E (87°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
30 knots (~35 mph | 15 m/s | 56 km/h)

Pressure:
1009 mb (29.80 inHg | 1009 hPa)

Coordinates:
13.6N 48.6W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data
My bad Grothar, just remembering old times myself, not to much difference in our ages I suppose. Born in Coral Gables myself.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't get ahead of yourself...


The NHC.

Not surprising really


Ernesto pt.2
Quoting AussieStorm:

Not surprising really


Ernesto pt.2

further N however
1274. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Advisories may be initiated later. If this happens, tropical cyclone watches and warnings will be required for the Cape Verde Islands.

Pretty uncommon.

They better do it soon.
Quoting kshipre1:
I assume you are referring to possible Gordon right? If the ukmet does dissipate it then it is thinking like the GFS and Euro as per the NHC.


THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SSTS AND REMAIN IN
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...DRY
AIR NEAR THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AS IT NEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS INCREASING SHEAR WILL
LIKELY HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AND SHOW IT BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.
FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE
WEAKENING...BUT THAT IS ONE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS
SMALL...MAKING IT MORE PRONE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
1276. 7544
Quoting AussieStorm:

Not surprising really


Ernesto pt.2


maybe not they could shift a little further north but we wait and see dont think that track is cut and dry
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

further N however

only by a few degrees.still forecast to pass south of Jamaica and the OHC/TCHP hot zone
Quoting 7544:


maybe not they could shift a little further north but we wait and see dont think that track is cut and dry


THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT
17 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING
AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS STEERED WESTWARD BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BEYOND THREE DAYS THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS MODEL.
1279. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
Ernesto is really trying hard.

Ernesto will regenerate in the Pacific.
EPAC....



A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF WEAKENING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERNESTO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
1281. 7544
blob watch today by andros and the caribiean island stay tuned
1282. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


something else.

I can see why the CMC has been latching on to this for so long.
Quoting Thing342:
Goodbye, Ernesto. Happy trails!

AL, 05, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 180N, 985W, 20, 1005, PT, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, D,

Goodbye, really? Won't the remnants of Earnesto cross Mexico and the Pacific, become a typhoon, cross IndoChina, and then those remnanats cross the Indian Ocean, cross Africa and become 146L? ??? Just kidding all the kiddos in here.
Think Globally, Act Locally. :P
TS watches would most likely be up for the windward Islands at the 11am advisory
go Ernesto/Hector!!!
if not at the 11am then at the (2pm providing that the watches are issued at that time) or 5pm
CV Islands cams







TD 7 seems to be holding off the dry air okay, it just needs to slow down.


Quoting hurricanehunter5753:
go Ernesto/Hector!!!

It will stay Ernesto. It will only change names if the L dissipates. Which it hasn't.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TD 7 seems to be holding off the dry air okay, it just needs to slow down.




Trade winds are strong. TD-5/Ernesto had the same problem, If TD-5/Ernesto had of been going slower he would become a bigger threat than he did, and a possible GOMcane
1292. Msdrown
Question for the older experts: 2005 post Katrina there was a retired Meteroligist living in the Bay St. Louis/Waveland MS area who wrote a paper/article on a double eye wall of Katrina. I believe he worked for NOAA or the NAVY office at NASA'S Stennis Space Center. He attributed more then ussual damage because of this. Does anyone remember his name? I want to research his article now, which is one reason I have been lurking WU ever since. I may have printed a copy out but haven't found it yet. He had a web page with this article on it but my laptop crashed since so I don't have that either. Much of what he talked about was over my head so I have gained more knowledge from you guys now and want to revisit it.
Quoting AussieStorm:

It will stay Ernesto. It will only change names if the L dissipates. Which it hasn't.

What's the difference between low-level circulation and mid-level circulation? The NHC said the low level circ. will dissipate, but the mid level circulation will survive the crossing and regenerate into a TD.
Quoting Grothar:


something else.


Healthy blob in the Carribean
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
Good morning everyone. Whats the good word?


What? Haven't you heard? Bird is the word.