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Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan

By: Angela Fritz 8:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

Ernesto strengthened to a category 1 hurricane this afternoon after the morning hurricane hunter mission found winds of 80 mph, which is unusual for a hurricane without an eye wall. The hunters also found a minimum central pressure of 984 mb, which has dropped since this morning. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to reach the center of the hurricane around 8pm EDT. The rain bands from Ernesto have reached the coast of Belize and Mexico as it continues to move west along the coast of Honduras, and landfall is expected north of the the Belize/Mexico border tonight around midnight. The Yucatan Basin buoy is now reporting gusts up to 53 mph, with sustained winds around 40 mph and 19 foot waves. These gusts are about 10 mph stronger than this morning's readings. Weather stations along the coast of Mexico and Belize aren't reporting winds stronger than 10 mph, however, they are expected to pick up around 8 or 9pm EDT tonight. The island of Roatan in Honduras is experiencing winds around 15 mph this afternoon, along with some light to moderate rainfall. Honduras seems to be the most impacted country so far, although they have avoided issuing evacuations. Nicaragua, however, has evacuated 1,500 people as of last night, and Mexico's authorities have evacuated around 600 residents from Punta Allen, which is a fishing village between Cozumel and Chetumal.

Visible satellite imagery suggests Ernesto still has the potential to develop an eye wall before landfall, as strong, organized thunderstorms are present in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Infrared satellite imagery shows the clockwise circulation at high levels (the upper level anti-cyclone) which will help ventilate the hurricane and could support further enhancement. If Ernesto wasn't approaching landfall, it would likely continue to strengthen and could have even experienced a period of rapid intensification, given the heat content of the Caribbean Sea. Wind shear around the hurricane remains low at 5-10 knots.


Figure 1. Radar image from Belize as the outer rain bands of Ernesto approach. This image was captured at 2:30pm EDT.


Figure 2. IR satellite imagery of Hurricane Ernesto captured at 4:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.


Figure 3. Webcam image from Caye Walker Village in Belize.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just checking in looks like Ernesto is making landfall

92L stronger on the TWO has it as 30% and orange I knew that would happen

92L models have shifted S and W again with the intensity forecast shows out of the 13 models 8 of the bring it to TS or above and out of the 8, 4 brings it to CAT 1 hurricane
Yes I would think that would be our 3rd Hurricane for the year on 2012.... Thats from what I see as of right now, but remember nothing writen in stone >>> Just Saying :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting mcluvincane:


Lol, thats what a lot of people said about bertha, fran, floyd, Isabel just to name a few hurricanes can fool even the best


Which is why those are exceptions, rather than the rule. Besides, I never said we shouldn't be cognizant or attentive of Cape Verde storms.
1003. etxwx
Link to a Belize newspaper, The Amadala. The article (from yesterday) describes the preparations for Ernesto in that area.
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE GILMA (EP072012)
8:00 PM PDT August 7 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: "Gilma" Strengthening Further..

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Gilma (994 hPa) located at 15.4N 115.0W or 535 NM southwest of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.5N 118.0W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.5N 120.0W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.2N 121.0W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Quoting angiest:


Open this link in a new window/tab: Link

This is a chart of all historical tropical cyclones that have crossed within 65nm of Galveston. If you look at the list, you will see they cluster in June and early July and then from mid to late August through September. Mid July to mid August is the hottest time of year for Texas, when the ridge that usually sits over us in the summer is strongest. While not impossible for it to weaken enough for something to hit during that four week span, it is much more likely to happen later in the season (or in the first couple of weeks) when the ridge is not usually as strong or in the same place.

Bottom line, this region of the Gulf is getting close to its second peak for activity based on history. As far as this year goes, it remains to be seen if the door actually opens.

Oh wow! thanks so much for the fantastic link, I do understand history, seasonal averages etc. I actually see what you're saying:) Its sort of a window of opportunity and just the right circumstances if the right storm comes along.. Great explanation for us not too "scientifically" inclined individuals:)
1007. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Assuming said hypothetical storm remains a low rider, then sure. Why not? But even in a normal year (i.e., one without the ridiculous heat ridge), it's fairly difficult to have a Cape Verde storm make it all the way across. Just the way things roll dude.


That is true and convenient for P.R., our worst hurricanes have been CV ones, like Georges, Hugo and the worst one ever Hurricane San Felipe II or the Okeechobee hurricane of 1928, a full fledged cat 5 crossing the island.

Thanks to how infrequently the CV storms manage to ride all the way from Africa to the Caribbean/Bahamas/US we are now about celebrate the 14th year without a major, or without a hurricane at all.
1008. MTWX
Even better link!!

Link

A little south of the mark, but still a great site!
Good evening I see Ernesto has made landfall and is finally moving as predicted lol
1010. angiest
Quoting huntsvle:


I believe that has to do with the placement of the ridge. SW/v's ride along the edge of it and interact with the seabreeze. Also, the outflow from SE US storms rolls over too. The I-10 corridor has bene quite fortunate this summer.


Sounds reasonable, and would also support the notion of storms coming in from east to west here such as Claudette (how close Ernesto might have come to this track!)

Hope all are safe in Ernesto's path, seems to have jumped W or WSW approaching land, south of the TFP as the eye became visible in satellite. Should be landfall headings soon.



Apparently Flo did not like the 0% from the NHC, lol.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Which is why those are exceptions, rather than the rule. Besides, I never said we shouldn't be cognizant or attentive of Cape Verde storms.


I must say, when it comes to weather there is no rule


Multiple Tropical Cyclones landfalling today.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
05L/H/E/CX
LANDFALL

You can really see that eye open up right after he came ashore. Bad timing for E...
Quoting angiest:


Sounds reasonable, and would also support the notion of storms coming in from east to west here such as Claudette (how close Ernesto might have come to this track!)



Indeed, and Ernesto might have done that too if he had gotten his act to gether a little earlier.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Best picture of the eye yet. It's a shame recon didn't make it.


made a bad timing schedule lol #fail
1018. angiest
Quoting huntsvle:


Indeed, and Ernesto might have done that too if he had gotten his act to gether a little earlier.


Or if he had formed a month ago when the ridge wasn't as far south.

Sound familiar (from Wikipedia)?

By early on July 9, while south of Puerto Rico, Claudette quickly strengthened over the warm waters of the Caribbean, and its strongest winds were just shy of the threshold for hurricane intensity. Possibly due to its fast forward motion, the storm became disorganized and weakened.
Costa Maya looks to be the landfall location, I said earlier a landfall from Costa Maya to Punta Allen and I got it right.
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

made a bad timing schedule lol #fail

Im sure it was a 90 mph Cat 1 at landfall... No recon, meant that the NHC wasn't going to change intensity even if it had strengthened a bit...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ex 06l tryin



definitely giving it the ol' college try.
Looks to have gotten a little nudge from the Atlantic ridge as it built WSW and shut off the trough. Plains ridge should take over soon as it is nearly overhead.

Good night everyone...
Tomorrow, we will watch and wait to see how Ernesto does going across the Yucatan Terrain... as well as Gilma, 93E, and 92L...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good night everyone...
Tomorrow, we will watch and wait to see how Ernesto does going across the Yucatan Terrain... as well as Gilma, 93E, and 92L...


And the big wave about to emerge West Africa. Good night.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good night everyone...
Tomorrow, we will watch and wait to see how Ernesto does going across the Yucatan Terrain... as well as Gilma, 93E, and 92L...

Good night HurricaneDean07, tomorrow will be another interesting day for sure.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks to have gotten a little nudge from the Atlantic ridge as it build WSW and shut off the trough. Plains ridge should take over soon as it is nearly overhead.


Kinda reminds me of Alex 2010 at mainland Mexico landfall...


Come to think of it, I believe Ernesto will turn out like a mixture of Alex and Karl 10', From now on.
000
WTNT65 KNHC 080318
TCUAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1015 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...BELIZE RADAR INDICATES ERNESTO HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN COAST
...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...DATA FROM THE BELIZE RADAR INDICATE
HURRICANE ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MAHAHUAL MEXICO AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF MAHAHUAL MEXICO
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And the big wave about to emerge West Africa. Good night.

Wont be looking for development tomorrow... Over the next 3-5 days...
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


quicksilverskys, I know it's been a while since you posted this, so I hope you're still on the blog. I just got home from work and scrolled back to read what's been going on.
This isn't an official weather site but it's a "personal art project" I stumbled upon on the internet that shows the winds all across the continguous states in the US.
I find it mesmerizing and have wanted to share it with Wunderground for a while, but kept forgetting.

Link
Still here! Regardless of the fussing for me to come cook somthing Hee Hee. Let them eat Ummmm.. Not cake.. Cold cuts:) Seriously though thanks for this great link. I understand these things so much better visually. Got another great link on storm history's etc that helped a bunch. Thats why I've hung around here for so many years. This is always fascinating stuff during hurricane season. I swear its addictive. Keep coming back year after year:)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Apparently Flo did not like the 0% from the NHC, lol.
Everytime they remove her floater or say she's dead, she resurrects herself.

If not for the shear to her west, I might give her a chance, but it looks like curtains for her, unless she manages to survive the shear. Who knows, the way things have been playing out this season, we're liable to see a hurricane at the North Pole.
1032. ycd0108
Mexican authorities made a good call to evacuate Punta Allen sooner rather than later. The road there is mud and sand between the Carib and an huge lagoon and at some points it is really just a 100 meter wide dune with a muddy road on top.
Great place to visit outside of the hurricane season.
1033. angiest
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Kinda reminds me of Alex 2010 at mainland Mexico landfall...


Come to think of it, I believe Ernesto will turn out like a mixture of Alex and Karl 10', From now on.


Alex was huge and dumped a lot of rain all over southern Texas. Karl was rather small and much further away, yet still spread a few feeder bands as far as Houston (I blogged it and captured some forecast discussions. I wonder how much of the western Gulf might wind up feeling impacts from Ernesto.
Quoting KoritheMan:
000
WTNT65 KNHC 080318
TCUAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1015 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...BELIZE RADAR INDICATES ERNESTO HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN COAST
...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...DATA FROM THE BELIZE RADAR INDICATE
HURRICANE ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MAHAHUAL MEXICO AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF MAHAHUAL MEXICO
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI


Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Everytime they remove her floater or say she's dead, she resurrects herself.

If not for the shear to her west, I might give her a chance, but it looks like curtains for her, unless she manages to survived the shear. Who knows, the way things have been playing out this season. We're liable to see a hurricane at the North Pole.



The tenacious ones defying the odds keep me looking over my shoulder. Makes you wonder what Flo would do in a more hospitable environment. Who knows, the longer she keeps it alive, she'll eventually find it.
1036. angiest
All right, good night everyone.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



The tenacious ones defying the odds keep me looking over my shoulder. Makes you wonder what Flo would do in a more hospitable environment. Who knows, the longer she keeps it alive, she'll eventually find it.




If ex-Flo survives the shear she's about to enter... there is a better environment ahead.
1038. ncstorm
GFS is showing ex 91L taking a turn up the east coast..



Big difference a little timing makes:

700-850 mb steering





500-850 mb steering. Could drive a few 1,000 big trucks through this!!!

Quoting angiest:
All right, good night everyone.


Yeah, sounds like an excellent plan. Goodnight.
Flo certainly had a blow-up of thunderstorms in the last few hours. Who thinks Flo or 92L has a chance going to the East Coast? Someone showed an 18Z graphic with storms hitting the coast. Can you post more of the model run?
Glad to hear Dr. Masters thinks the last part of hurricane season won't be as active as the first part (If I read his post correctly). That's good news for us on the GOM.
1044. JLPR2
00z, check it out, that's 92L around 43W.

Quoting wxchaser97:
Costa Maya looks to be the landfall location, I said earlier a landfall from Costa Maya to Punta Allen and I got it right.


Well I'm trying not to break my arm patting myself on the back too, lol... Had insight on the WWD turn as well...
Do we win a prize or sumthin'?
;)

801. DocNDswamp 2:15 PM CDT on August 07, 2012 +1
Hmmm, landfall...
So many luscious attractions to choose from, so little time...
I'm thinking Erny might still want to bend back slightly, avoid the heavier tourist traffic and visit the Mayan Beach Garden just above Mahahual / below the Reserve...

1046. Patrap
Yu win a Nice Cold Case of Fresca...!

The Tropical Quencher for the discerning blogger.







T-48 hrs. until Gordon:

Quoting WxGeekVA:




If ex-Flo survives the shear she's about to enter... there is a better environment ahead.


This is really going to be elementary to most of you, but when looking at the shear map, is the yellow lines the shear or the pink lines? Also, how do you identify the anticyclone? Check my handle and the questions will make sense. TIA
Quoting want2lrn:


This is really going to be elementary to most of you, but when looking at the shear map, is the yellow lines the shear or the pink lines? Also, how do you identify the anticyclone? Check my handle and the questions will make sense. TIA


Yellow delineates the shear in knots, and the pink lines show shear direction/anticyclones.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL STORM KIROGI (T1212)
9:00 AM JST August 6 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Far East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kirogi (996 hPa) located at 31.4N 159.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 34.0N 156.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Far East Of Japan
48 HRS: 40.0N 154.0E - Tropical Depression East Of Japan
T.C.O.L.
05L/XH/E/XX
1052. Patrap
Quoting want2lrn:


This is really going to be elementary to most of you, but when looking at the shear map, is the yellow lines the shear or the pink lines? Also, how do you identify the anticyclone? Check my handle and the questions will make sense. TIA


How to use Hurricane Maps

Deep-Layer Wind Shear

This next image is the Atmospheric Shear map. The contours (yellow) show the vector magnitude shear (absolute value). The streamlines (pink) indicate the direction of the shear. This map is useful for figuring out the direction of the wind shear & what may be causing it. Many times when we see a well established hurricane, you will notice pink streamlines in a clockwise fashion directly on top of the Hurricane. This is a high pressure aloft which aids in outflow of developing hurricanes. Shear values below 10 m/s (20 kts) are considered low enough for tropical cyclogenesis. More here.
Kinda creepy when they dance like this on the land. It will probably fizzle just as it leaves shore.

LOL Pat, Fresca it be, brother!
1055. JLPR2
So far this is the first run I have seen from the GFS in which it closes 92L off and tries to strengthen it.

1056. Patrap
Betta to Have Fresca that "Ernesto".

He wouldnt look too cool Heading N into Barataria or elsewhere.
1057. Patrap
Dr. Masters First TWC Tropical appearance,Ernesto Landfall,Yucatan


Quoting JLPR2:
So far this is the first run I have seen from the GFS in which it closes 92L off and tries to strengthen it.



I hate when the GFS picks up on stuff like that.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yellow delineates the shear in knots, and the pink lines show shear direction/anticyclones.


Thank you
Well goodnight all. I'm beginning to believe Flo is a Vampiress, she only comes out at night.
Quoting JLPR2:
So far this is the first run I have seen from the GFS in which it closes 92L off and tries to strengthen it.



So, 92L may be Gordon and the monster behind it would be Helene? I've always found that female storms cause the most problems...and the "I" storms. Always the "I" storms.

92L will move through the Caribbean...hmmm. We'll see if a different environment will be present.

Gordon & Helene?

Quoting huntsvle:


I hate when the GFS picks up on stuff like that.


Yeah, and only 4-5 days out. Not that unreasonable.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


So, 92L may be Gordon and the monster behind it would be Helene? I've always found that female storms cause the most problems...and the "I" storms. Always the "I" storms.

92L will move through the Caribbean...hmmm. We'll see if a different environment will be present.



we'll also see where exactly she places herself in the carribean...which could change things quite a bit too.
1065. Gearsts
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Gordon & Helene?

Ernesto part 2 please no!
1066. sar2401
Well, I didn't do too bad. I called it as plus or minus 30 miles from San Pedro Island, Belize. Looks like I was off by about 25 miles. I think I just deserve a baby crow for that one. :)
Quoting Patrap:


How to use Hurricane Maps

Deep-Layer Wind Shear

This next image is the Atmospheric Shear map. The contours (yellow) show the vector magnitude shear (absolute value). The streamlines (pink) indicate the direction of the shear. This map is useful for figuring out the direction of the wind shear & what may be causing it. Many times when we see a well established hurricane, you will notice pink streamlines in a clockwise fashion directly on top of the Hurricane. This is a high pressure aloft which aids in outflow of developing hurricanes. Shear values below 10 m/s (20 kts) are considered low enough for tropical cyclogenesis. More here.


Thank you Patrap, now i am going to be up half the night trying to learn! Judging by some of your comments "N into Barataria" i am assuming you are in the Crescent City. Spent a couple of hot humid summers in Westwego. Thank you again for the link.
Quoting want2lrn:


This is really going to be elementary to most of you, but when looking at the shear map, is the yellow lines the shear or the pink lines? Also, how do you identify the anticyclone? Check my handle and the questions will make sense. TIA




well the yellow is the level the pink is the flow the anticyclone is over cen america sw of e's playground
1069. Patrap
00
1070. JLPR2
Quoting tennisgirl08:


So, 92L may be Gordon and the monster behind it would be Helene? I've always found that female storms cause the most problems...and the "I" storms. Always the "I" storms.

92L will move through the Caribbean...hmmm. We'll see if a different environment will be present.



So far, the GFS is showing Ernesto's twin.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well goodnight all. I'm beginning to believe Flo is a Vampiress, she only comes out at night.
lol
Quoting Gearsts:
Ernesto part 2 please no!
I know tell me about it. Alberto and Beryl pretty much took the same track (with the exception of the landfall part), will Gordon follow Ernesto?
1073. Patrap
Quoting want2lrn:


Thank you Patrap, now i am going to be up half the night trying to learn! Judging by some of your comments "N into Barataria" i am assuming you are in the Crescent City. Spent a couple of hot humid summers in Westwego. Thank you again for the link.


Fer sure enjoy that one as it's a keepa.

Westwego, A west Banker, eh?

I'm Uptown Near Audubon off Magazine and Jefferson.

Home style Homie's almost.

: )

Quoting JLPR2:
So far this is the first run I have seen from the GFS in which it closes 92L off and tries to strengthen it.



Yes,that is a sign that conditions may not be as hostile as we thought. By the way,I have a blog about the African Wave for the members to visit and comment about that huge wave that looks like a Storm already.

Link
pat i must be gettin slow
or you are typing faster
1076. Patrap
03:45 UTC Rainbow.


1077. sar2401
Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Masters First TWC Tropical appearance,Ernesto Landfall,Yucatan




I sure wish Dr. Masters had combed his hair better for a first appearance.
Quoting Patrap:


How to use Hurricane Maps

Deep-Layer Wind Shear

This next image is the Atmospheric Shear map. The contours (yellow) show the vector magnitude shear (absolute value). The streamlines (pink) indicate the direction of the shear. This map is useful for figuring out the direction of the wind shear & what may be causing it. Many times when we see a well established hurricane, you will notice pink streamlines in a clockwise fashion directly on top of the Hurricane. This is a high pressure aloft which aids in outflow of developing hurricanes. Shear values below 10 m/s (20 kts) are considered low enough for tropical cyclogenesis. More here.
Thanks for the link Pat, consider it bookmarked.
1079. Patrap
That is a Powerful small cored Hurricane with the Eyewall Half Onshore.

Look Closely at the Eyewall feature inside that CDO



1080. JLPR2
Quoting sar2401:


I sure wish Dr. Masters had combed his hair better for a frst appearance.


Let's get him a Mohawk, it worked for the NASA guy. xD
1081. Patrap
A Great Image.

NASA's Curiosity rover and its parachute were spotted by NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter as Curiosity descended to the surface on Aug. 5 PDT (Aug. 6 EDT).

The High-Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera captured this image of Curiosity--the rover and its parachute are in the center of the white box.

LARGE



Quoting Patrap:
That is a Powerful small cored Hurricane with the Eyewall Half Onshore.

Look Closely at the Eyewall feature inside that CDO





US got really lucky with Ernesto. The Yucatan was lucky that he didn't have another 12 hours over water. Ernesto has a wonderful upper level environment in that there is a large upper level low to the NE helping to ventilate the upper atmosphere around Ernesto. Notice the high cirrus being pulled into the Caribbean. There is also another upper level low over Mexico and it is doing basically the same thing. This in the open waters of the Central Gulf would have been bad news for someone.

Ernesto is still looking very good despite making landfall. You can clearly see the eye now (even though it's cloud covered). We'll see Ernesto's appearance deteriorate quite a bit by sunrise today.
Quoting Ameister12:
Ernesto is still looking very good despite making landfall. You can clearly see the eye feature now. We'll see Ernesto appearance deteriorate quite a bit by sunrise today.

What is the city under the eye feature? North of the bay?
I would really like to know the conditions there
Ernesto also seems to have regained his westward movement. No more SW jog.

He is sure erratic.
well guys I did say it before 92L will be a Caribbean storm

by the way Floater is up now for 92L as well still has a good spin but convection is kinda lacking but that should change as D-MAX will soon enter that area
I say 92L stays 30% orange at 2am and at 8am upped to 40% orange
1089. Patrap
The Hurricane Made Landfall just North of ChetumalBelize City, WunderMap®

re: #1066. sar2401
Nah, as I recall you also being part of the "Belize-MX" border camp for several days out as well, I'd say pass 'da man another Fresca'! lol...

Seriously tho' - Best wishes to our compadres down on the Yucatan with Ernesto, know it's gotta be a rough night ya going thru...
Later folks!
Quoting tennisgirl08:

What is the city under the eye feature? North of the bay?
I would really like to know the conditions there

The town is called.
Costa Maya, Quintana Roo,Mexico
1092. Patrap
Belize City, WunderMap®

Satellite
OptionsLegend
Display Options
Opacity
85
Animate
7 frames
Frame Delay
Quoting DocNDswamp:


Well I'm trying not to break my arm patting myself on the back too, lol... Had insight on the WWD turn as well...
Do we win a prize or sumthin'?
;)

801. DocNDswamp 2:15 PM CDT on August 07, 2012 1
Hmmm, landfall...
So many luscious attractions to choose from, so little time...
I'm thinking Erny might still want to bend back slightly, avoid the heavier tourist traffic and visit the Mayan Beach Garden just above Mahahual / below the Reserve...


From my blog earlier in the day, not tooting my own horn but just one of the very few things I got right with this storm.
I expect a 90-95mph hurricane to make landfall between Costa Maya and Punta Allen.
As for the prize we get a cookie.
T.C.O.L.
05L/XH/E/XX
Costa Maya PWS went down 2 hrs ago..

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.O.L.
05L/XH/E/XX

I still see the eye, maybe it won't weaken that much.
1097. Patrap
Hurricane 05L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2012 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 18:45:18 N Lon : 87:48:09 W


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE




This is what Hurricane Dean did to Costa Maya in 2007







Dean was a Cat 5 Monster. Ernesto is only a Cat 1 so I wouldn't expect this much damage.
1084. MississippiWx

Very lucky timing as well, MS Wx... another 3-4 days from now with even deeper digging trof coming and I would have been freakin' on the "shooting the gap" thru the Yuc Channel scenario too!

Okay, over / out...
1100. Patrap
The Cat 5 Scours the trees, Land and lays waste to everything.

Impressive Aussie.
no tricks E just go the way ya suppose to go
1102. JLPR2
If I'm not mistaken this is farthest west it has taken it.

Quoting tennisgirl08:

What is the city under the eye feature? North of the bay?
I would really like to know the conditions there

Petcacab, Quintana Roo looks very close to the eye right now.
Quoting Skyepony:
Costa Maya PWS went down 2 hrs ago..



29.18in hg = 988mb

2 hours ago, Ernesto wasn't on land. With him having such a small core, it's not far-fetched to say he was sub 980mb.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


So, 92L may be Gordon and the monster behind it would be Helene? I've always found that female storms cause the most problems...and the "I" storms. Always the "I" storms.

92L will move through the Caribbean...hmmm. We'll see if a different environment will be present.



Hurricane Helene does have a serious sound to it.
1106. Patrap
04:15 UTC Rainbow

I definitely think Ernesto achieved category 2 status just prior to landfall... perhaps even by the advisory that was issued nearly 2 hours ago, when they said they had technical issues. I actually don't think his appearance will degrade much by tomorrow morning, he had all the time in the world to build himself up to this and he took full advantage, it's going to be difficult for land like that on the Yucatan to degrade such a well-structured storm. Irene took a long time to degrade once it went ashore for similar reasons. She was still tropical as she approached the border into Canada.

I think there's a possibility of Ernesto achieving major status when he gets back out into open waters.
Sure quieted down in here. Wishcaster's went home. All and All, Ernesto turned into a very nice looking Tropical Cyclone. Has he slowed? Looks like it has been it that general area for 4 hours.
Quoting JLPR2:
If I'm not mistaken this is farthest west it has taken it.



What happened to 92L? Yes,the most west so far.
Latest gfs is going to have a lot of bloggers talking tomorrow wow
1111. Patrap
1112. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Quoting AussieStorm:
This is what Hurricane Dean did to Costa Maya in 2007







Dean was a Cat 5 Monster. Ernesto is only a Cat 1 so I wouldn't expect this much damage.
iam sure we will hear news come first light
1114. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What happened to 92L? Yes,the most west so far.


GFS had it fall apart after entering the Caribbean.
Quoting mcluvincane:
Latest gfs is going to have a lot of bloggers talking tomorrow wow
You mean because of this?

Quoting mcluvincane:
Latest gfs is going to have a lot of bloggers talking tomorrow wow


Tomorrow? Why not tonight?
1117. 7544
has anyone seen this is this suppose to be 92l gorden closin in on ....

Link
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You mean because of this?

Not liking this. Trough misses it and it hits FL.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You mean because of this?



Oh yeah, definitely because of that lol
Quoting JLPR2:


GFS had it fall apart after entering the Caribbean.


But at least is the first time it showed it. The CV wave train is in full swing.
Quoting Patrap:
The Cat 5 Scours the trees, Land and lays waste to everything.

Impressive Aussie.

Pat, have another Freaca.

I did mention Dean was a Cat 5 and Ernesto is a Cat 1. all be it, a strengthening one.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You mean because of this?



Andrew? Is that you?
Quoting mcluvincane:


Oh yeah, definitely because of that lol


Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.....well that's certainly something to keep track of *blink blink* that's one where the placement of the storm is going to have to be watched very closely.
It's two weeks out. It will change. It might hit Florida and give JFV the time of his life, or it may recurve. Hell, it might not even form. All we should take from this is that we all need to review our hurricane preparedness plans, because August promises to be a very active month.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You mean because of this?



Is that Helene and Isaac? Or Gordon and Helene?
This isn't related to Ernesto, but it is weather related.

NWS in Wilmington, OH says the high for Friday is 74 degrees Fahrenheit and on Saturday the high is 76. It might sound ridiculous with all the extreme heat going on, but this is typical Ohio weather.

(Click image to make it bigger)
1127. TXCWC
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Sure quieted down in here. Wishcaster's went home. All and All, Ernesto turned into a very nice looking Tropical Cyclone. Has he slowed? Looks like it has been it that general area for 4 hours.


AGREED - LUCKY IT IS NOT TAKING A MORE NORTHERN ROUTE - POTENTIAL WAS DEFINETLY THERE FOR THIS TO BE A FORMIDABLE CANE.
Quoting JLPR2:


GFS had it fall apart after entering the Caribbean.


and then regenerate into an open wave, and then explode in the Western Caribbean? Ernesto's twin??
Quoting JLPR2:
If I'm not mistaken this is farthest west it has taken it.


Yep,
The complete run takes that one a little too close for comfort to the east coast. lol still long ways out
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Is that Helene and Isaac? Or Gordon and Helene?

It depends if 92L develops or not, if it does then Helene and Isaac but if not Gordon and Helene.
Correction. Latest GFS has a storm that skirts FL and goes ashore into GA.
1132. CRepp28
Ernesto Makes Rare Atoll-fall

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

Pat, have another Freaca.

I did mention Dean was a Cat 5 and Ernesto is a Cat 1. all be it, a strengthening one.


What do you think it is? bush week?
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's two weeks out. It will change. It might hit Florida and give JFV the time of his life, or it may recurve. Hell, it might not even form. All we should take from this is that we all need to review our hurricane preparedness plans, because August promises to be a very active month.


That's what one of my local guys said when Ernesto formed. Only adding, "The one you should've had ready on June 1st!"

I hope they're not having too tough a time with Ernesto down there. And I hope the rest go out to sea.

Invest AL92. Tracks across the Atlantic, into the Gulf of Mexico, then WNW towards TX around Galveston/Houston.
Quoting Ameister12:
This isn't related to Ernesto, but it is weather related.

NWS in Wilmington, OH says the high for Friday is 74 degrees Fahrenheit and on Saturday the high is 76. It might sound ridiculous with all the extreme heat going on, but this is typical Ohio weather.

(Click image to make it bigger)

Ohio, the worst state every;) Sorry but MI is better, even if you are not in Ohio I had to say it.
It is nice to see cooler temps after the record heat we have seen.
Ooops, one more -

1093. wxchaser97
Ah, don't get me wrong, wasn't pickin' at ya... go ahead, some times ya gotta toot the horn some, lol, as I was doing in a round-about way!

BTW, if I remember something read way back on a previous blog - I think it was you - we might have cake to share come this Sunday, not just cookie... along with fellow blogger StormJunkie - Aug 12th b'day!

Wheeeeee... (lol)
Writing a 3rd blog in one 24 hour period and will have it ready soon. Covers the whole Atlantic. Hope everyone in Mx took the warnings seriously and that there is little damage.
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Invest AL92. Tracks across the Atlantic, into the Gulf of Mexico, then WNW towards TX around Galveston/Houston.


There's your drought buster. Nya ha ha ha!
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's two weeks out. It will change. It might hit Florida and give JFV the time of his life, or it may recurve. Hell, it might not even form. All we should take from this is that we all need to review our hurricane preparedness plans, because August promises to be a very active month.


Very true. Although I'm sure said JFV is quite ready for a big one..
Quoting unknowncomic:
Correction. Latest GFS has a storm that skirts FL and goes ashore into GA.
Can you post the next image in the run and the end of the run for me, somehow mine stopped at 324 hrs. out?
Quoting KoritheMan:


There's your drought buster. Nya ha ha ha!


We're not in a drought anymore. :P
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


What do you think it is? bush week?

exsqueeze me... lol
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Very true. Although I'm sure said JFV is quite ready for a big one..


Dude, I'm ready for a big one. Or at least a chase of some sort. Don't care if it's a Category 1, 2, or what. Anything higher than a 3 and I'd try and avoid it though.
Quoting KoritheMan:
If anyone wants to read it, I just finished the rest of my blog.

Also, here's the one for Ernesto I did earlier.

This has been one busy night! D:

See post 1139.

Quoting DocNDswamp:
Ooops, one more -

1093. wxchaser97
Ah, don't get me wrong, wasn't pickin' at ya... go ahead, some times ya gotta toot the horn some, lol, as I was doing in a round-about way!

BTW, if I remember something read way back on a previous blog - I think it was you - we might have cake to share come this Sunday, not just cookie... along with fellow blogger StormJunkie - Aug 12th b'day!

Wheeeeee... (lol)

Happy early birthday to the both of us. I'll be gone starting Sunday morning and come back Friday. Hope you all don't get crazy or there's a landfalling hurricane while I'm gone.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ohio, the worst state every;) Sorry but MI is better, even if you are not in Ohio I had to say it.
It is nice to see cooler temps after the record heat we have seen.

Ohio? Worst state ever? You must me kidding.

...and so the Ohio/Michigan rivalry hits the Weather Underground Blog.

Quoting AussieStorm:

exsqueeze me... lol


Did you seriously just quote Jar Jar Binks? Really?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Can you post the next image in the run and the end of the run for me, somehow mine stopped at 324 hrs. out?


I saw it at the end of the run too. But now I can't get either site I use to work.
Quoting AussieStorm:

exsqueeze me... lol
lol
just ribing ya you are alright
Quoting KoritheMan:


Dude, I'm ready for a big one. Or at least a chase of some sort. Don't care if it's a Category 1, 2, or what. Anything higher than a 3 and I'd try and avoid it though.


Yeah, same here. One comes up to VA beach or the DELMARVA and I'll try to chase it.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yeah, same here. One comes up to VA beach or the DELMARVA and I'll try to chase it.


I wanted so badly to chase Ernesto even when it veered into Mexico. Unfortunately, I don't have the money at the moment. That's why it has to hit Louisiana for a chase to even be possible.
*AHEM

Is there ANY model out there picking up Florence?

I dunno it seems as if it is something that will slip by everything and make a comeback out of nowhere. Although it has certainly sputtered, it's still goin relatively strong.
Goodnight Night Crew....Hold down the fort...gonna go look at models....esp the GFS
Quoting Ameister12:

Ohio? Worst state ever? You must me kidding.

...and so the Ohio/Michigan rivalry hits the Weather Underground Blog.



Dr M did a whole blog about that some months ago. Lol.
Quoting RussianWinter:
*AHEM

Is there ANY model out there picking up Florence?

I dunno it seems as if it is something that will slip by everything and make a comeback out of nowhere. Although it has certainly sputtered, it's still goin relatively strong.


Even if it does, it wouldn't matter at all. The synoptic pattern favors recurvature near 70W.
WAAAAAAIT A SECOND!!!!!

The GFS has a hurricane hitting Florida the day after my girlfriend gets there for vacation... Suddenly, I hope the model doesn't verify!
Current Conditions at Consejo, Belize, on the Belize / Mexico border,

Location: 18.27N 88.18W

Wind: West at 17kts - Gusts to 30kts

Pressure: 997mb

Temp: 76F
Quoting Ameister12:

Ohio? Worst state ever? You must me kidding.

...and so the Ohio/Michigan rivalry hits the Weather Underground Blog.


And it begins... but next few days will be thankfully cooler. Better watch out when college football gets here, especially Michigan vs Ohio state.

Ernesto in the Epac, Gordon near the windward Is, Helene behind it. Gilma weakens
Quoting WxGeekVA:
WAAAAAAIT A SECOND!!!!!

The GFS has a hurricane hitting Florida the day after my girlfriend gets there for vacation... Suddenly, I hope the model doesn't verify!


Well, you guys could always throw a hurricane party of some sorts. You know, act stupid and stuff before the storm actually hits. Then be like "OH **** WHY DIDN'T I EVACUATE?"

lolololol
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Dr M did a whole blog about that some months ago. Lol.

I remember that one like it was yesterday.

91C and another low west of Dateline interacting with each other
1164. TXCWC
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Invest AL92. Tracks across the Atlantic, into the Gulf of Mexico, then WNW towards TX around Galveston/Houston.


You need to qualify this by stating this is from 1 of the individual GFS Ensembles from the 06Z run this morning and is NOT even supported by the 06Z operational model run. Else someone might get the wrong idea in what you are posting. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Even if it does, it wouldn't matter at all. The synoptic pattern favors recurvature near 70W.


AKA a Bermuda storm. My dad is doing a business trip there very soon so I am a bit concerned.


I know there are plenty of people who treat the islands as the sea and think that unless a storm hits the US of A. as if the storm is a storm for the fishies.

I'm not one of those people, I care about the various uncharted islands out there.

lol.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, you guys could always throw a hurricane party of some sorts. You know, act stupid and stuff before the storm actually hits. Then be like "OH **** WHY DIDN'T I EVACUATE?"

lolololol


That would be a great idea, except unfortunately I can't go with..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lol
just ribing ya you are alright

I knew that mate... rib away, Our mens Basketball team play you guy next. It's going to be good. We also might meet your girls for the gold in the womens basketball.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I saw it at the end of the run too. But now I can't get either site I use to work.
Ok I found another link that has updated the full run. Link

1171. WoodyFL
Quoting RussianWinter:


AKA a Bermuda storm. My dad is doing a business trip there very soon so I am a bit concerned.


I know there are plenty of people who treat the islands as the sea and think that unless a storm hits the US of A. as if the storm is a storm for the fishies.

I'm not one of those people, I care about the various uncharted islands out there.

lol.


I'm not US centric either, but the pattern favors a track well to the west of Bermuda as well. Long ways out, but still.
FILLED MAP YOU!!!

From experience I can say storm chasing can get dangerous.My friend and I chased one back in the 60's and nearly lost it's fun appeal.Last time for that.
Quoting WoodyFL:


So, uhh, Florida, South East Coast, New England, Nova Scotia, Fish, or Bermuda?

EDIT: Forgot the damn Canadians


I know it's been showing a storm for the longest time now but this thing been hoppin all over the place like a kangaroo or somethin.
1176. TXCWC
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I saw it at the end of the run too. But now I can't get either site I use to work.


Try this one - run is complete here: Link
1177. TXCWC
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I saw it at the end of the run too. But now I can't get either site I use to work.


Try this one - run is complete here: Link
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not US centric either, but the pattern favors a track well to the west of Bermuda as well. Long ways out, but still.


Oh that's good. Tough to remember that there is a huge distance between Bermuda and United States. Lol.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You mean because of this?



Here's the thing some bloggers don't understand. While this is long range... the pattern completely supports the idea of a Hurricane making it from Africa to the USA without recurvature. Too much ridging this year, it'll be an interesting couple weeks.
1180. WoodyFL
Quoting wxchaser97:

And it begins... but next few days will be thankfully cooler. Better watch out when college football gets here, especially Michigan vs Ohio state.

Yeah. I'm ready to see the Buckeyes, kick the Wolverines butt. Heh, heh, heh... ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


There's your drought buster. Nya ha ha ha!


South TX could sure use it. I think South TX is a pretty decent place for landfall. They've got South Padre and Port Isabel which are easy to evacuate. Brownsville is fairly far inland. South of Corpus is ranch country. Corpus is not a good place because it's a fairly large city on the water.
Quoting TXCWC:


Try this one - run is complete here: Link


Thanks TX. I didn't have that one. :)
Quoting reedzone:


Here's the thing some bloggers don't understand. While this is long range... the pattern completely supports the idea of a Hurricane making it from Africa to the USA without recurvature. Too much ridging this year, it'll be an interesting couple weeks.


So much ridging that Alberto, Chris, and Debby all moved northeastward under the influence of a trough. I'll give you that the high seems stronger this year relative to the last two years, but it's nowhere near the scope of 2004, 2005, or 2008 (not that I'm saying you suggested that).
Quoting wxchaser97:

And it begins... but next few days will be thankfully cooler. Better watch out when college football gets here, especially Michigan vs Ohio state.


Michigan will tear up the Big Ten this year!
Quoting WoodyFL:


Interesting to note...if the storm is not a strong one...it is possible that it would follow the ridge rather than tracking up the east coast. Still a couple weeks out, who knows. Synoptics have definitely played their roll this year.
Quoting reedzone:


Here's the thing some bloggers don't understand. While this is long range... the pattern completely supports the idea of a Hurricane making it from Africa to the USA without recurvature. Too much ridging this year, it'll be an interesting couple weeks.



Shhhh.... don't you know the pattern favors recurvature at 70 west sarcasm flag on
Quoting KoritheMan:


So much ridging that Alberto, Chris, and Debby all moved northeastward under the influence of a trough. I'll give you that the high seems stronger this year relative to the last two years, but it's nowhere near the scope of 2004, 2005, or 2008 (not that I'm saying you suggested that).


IMO it's all in the timing. Nature knows how many landfalls were wrong by many miles because the timing of the trough was predicted a bit wrong.
T.C.O.L.
WEAKENING FLAG ON
05L/XH/E/XX
Quoting reedzone:


Here's the thing some bloggers don't understand. While this is long range... the pattern completely supports the idea of a Hurricane making it from Africa to the USA without recurvature. Too much ridging this year, it'll be an interesting couple weeks.
I was thinking the reason the GFS didn't recurve it this run is because it keeps it weaker than the previous run as it goes across the Atlantic, I did noticed the High is weaker, but the first trough also lifts out, the 2nd trough is the one to watch and it will come down to timing.
Quoting KoritheMan:


So much ridging that Alberto, Chris, and Debby all moved northeastward under the influence of a trough. I'll give you that the high seems stronger this year relative to the last two years, but it's nowhere near the scope of 2004, 2005, or 2008 (not that I'm saying you suggested that).


Kinda reminding me of 2007

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.O.L.
WEAKENING FLAG ON
05L/XH/E/XX
And the eye decides to clear out overland, what a weird storm from the beginning to now.
Listen to Kori folks, even though it does show up near the 20th anniversary of Andrew, it doesn't mean a thing.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Kinda reminding me of 2007



Yeah. Good comparison, albeit atypical for an El Nino/warm neutral year.
1195. WoodyFL
Quoting RussianWinter:


So, uhh, Florida, South East Coast, New England, Fish, or Bermuda?


I know it's been showing a storm for the longest time now but this thing been hoppin all over the place like a kangaroo or somethin.


Im not sure but it could have been showing florence earlier and that is why we are confused. this is anogther system. i noticed when they dropped florence this started being consistent.
Quoting caneswatch:
Listen to Kori folks, even though it does show up near the 20th anniversary of Andrew, it doesn't mean a thing.


Hi Connor.
:-D
I will be here till 2am then iam gone
1199. WoodyFL
wow i post 2 pictures in a year and get yelled at. No wonder we all lurk so much. this is a tough crowd lol
Quoting Ameister12:
:-D


Eye looks even better defined. Gotta love frictional convergence, eh?
Quoting Ameister12:
:-D
Just like Fay, although stronger.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.O.L.
WEAKENING FLAG ON
05L/XH/E/XX
ernesto looks better on land than when it was over the water. lol. confusing storm. did the oppistit of everything. when it was supposed to weaked it strengthened when it was supposed to strengthen it weaked
1203. WoodyFL
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah. Good comparison, albeit atypical for an El Nino/warm neutral year.


you in Miami
Quoting KoritheMan:


Eye looks even better defined. Gotta love frictional convergence, eh?


Whuts happenin?
Quoting WoodyFL:


you in Miami


lol no. Try Baton Rouge.
Ernesto was not just an 85mph hurricane. Pinhole eye.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Hi Connor.


Hi Kori, how've you been? I miss coming on here, looks like there will be more time now :)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
And the eye decides to clear out overland, what a weird storm from the beginning to now.
wacky 2012 and its to get even wackier
1209. 7544
whatever u do ernie dont stall lol
the eye finally decides to clear out over land.lol
After hurricane season 2012 is done, my brain is going to be fried.
Quoting RussianWinter:


Whuts happenin?


The eye and eyewall are tightening up due to interaction with land. Essentially, because of the properties land has, the air in the storm slows down while upstream air rushes in to fill the void. Sort of like a pressure gradient type thing I guess. This temporarily invigorates the inner core of a landfalling hurricane before it traverses too far inland. A similar situation occurred with Gustav in 2008.
1213. WoodyFL
Quoting KoritheMan:


lol no. Try Baton Rouge.


i think i quoted the wrong person i think that was canewatch about Andrew
Quoting caneswatch:


Hi Kori, how've you been? I miss coming on here, looks like there will be more time now :)


I've actually been really busy. Work + blogging multiple simultaneous systems = tired me. :(
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto was not just an 85mph hurricane. Pinhole eye.


Where did that come from and PINHOLE!
As Pat says

Welcome to the 2012 Mayan Atlantic and GOM Swirlpalooza...
Hmmm...A little model agreement. CMC has low approaching Bahamas same time frame as GFS anyway.



Quoting KoritheMan:


The eye and eyewall are tightening up due to interaction with land. Essentially, because of the properties land has, the air in the storm slows down while upstream air rushes in to fill the void. Sort of like a pressure gradient type thing I guess. This temporarily invigorates the inner core of a landfalling hurricane before it traverses too far inland. A similar situation occurred with Gustav in 2008.


I would expect that since both debbie and ernie were quite the mind bogglers, that's the type of season we'll have. Get out your just for men guys...by september we'll need it.


240 hours
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmm...A little model agreement. CMC has low approaching Bahamas same time frame as GFS anyway.





on these though, athome, is a difference in the strength of the ridge, which I assume will be instrumental in guidance. HOWEVER, if we do end up with a 958mb storm...who knows what kinda factor a ridge or trough would play.
Quoting Ameister12:

Yeah. I'm ready to see the Buckeyes, kick the Wolverines butt. Heh, heh, heh... ;)

Nooo:( it will be the opposite. Sorry busy with m blog as well as here so I will be slow. Ernesto's eye is clearing out over land, go figure.
1222. WoodyFL
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto was not just an 85mph hurricane. Pinhole eye.



thats strange
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto was not just an 85mph hurricane. Pinhole eye.



I think that the NHC thinks that he may have been slightly stronger. In their landfall update, they only say that he was a "category 1 hurricane," they don't mention windspeed, which something that they normally do mention. IMO, they've been very deliberate the past few days about waiting until they had plane confirmation about Ernesto's intensity before adjusting the winds.. wouldn't be surprised to see the Yucatan intensity bumped up a tad in the post season.
1224. WoodyFL
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmm...A little model agreement. CMC has low approaching Bahamas same time frame as GFS anyway.





How come they not yelling at you for posting the same thing? lol
My tracking map, NOT OFFICIAL
Well, off to bed. Night all.
This is definitely no 85 MPH cane... Beautiful pinhole right now, I'm guessing this was approaching Cat 3 intensity at landfall...

If this year's hurricane season fails to give me a good chase, I demand to be recompensed through a harsh, brutal winter. Let it snow let it snow let it snow!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmm...A little model agreement. CMC has low approaching Bahamas same time frame as GFS anyway.





from what i see the next week will be difficult :(
1231. 7544
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmm...A little model agreement. CMC has low approaching Bahamas same time frame as GFS anyway.





cmc also shows a fl. system on the 12th possible flo ?
Link
1232. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


The eye and eyewall are tightening up due to interaction with land. Essentially, because of the properties land has, the air in the storm slows down while upstream air rushes in to fill the void. Sort of like a pressure gradient type thing I guess. This temporarily invigorates the inner core of a landfalling hurricane before it traverses too far inland. A similar situation occurred with Gustav in 2008.


Still...
I bet Ernesto was really a 90-100mph hurricane.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
This is definitely no 85 MPH cane... Beautiful pinhole right now, I'm guessing this was approaching Cat 3 intensity at landfall...



I can't imagine this hurricane in the North of GOM
Quoting WoodyFL:


How come they not yelling at you for posting the same thing? lol


Ummmmm. I don't know. I'm sorry someone yelled at you. Next time just pretend they didn't lol.
Quoting stormchaser19:


from what i see the next week will be difficult :(


It's most definitely going to be a busy couple of weeks. With that and the next wave that looks to be promising coming off africa soon...many of us are going to be very busy. I can't express this enough, but if you haven't already you need to go through your hurricane checklist and supply kit just in case.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


I think that the NHC thinks that he may have been slightly stronger. In their landfall update, they only say that he was a "category 1 hurricane," they don't mention windspeed, which something that they normally do mention. IMO, they've been very deliberate the past few days about waiting until they had plane confirmation about Earnesto's intensity before adjusting the winds.. wouldn't be surprised to see the Yucatan intensity bumped up a tad in the post season.


Will be difficult for them to adjust the intensity since satellite estimates showed the hurricane weaker than the NHC had it. The satellite estimates basically halt their intensity adjustments until the hurricane clears out an eye.

What the NHC could do is survey the damage in the Yucatan and determine what the wind speeds represented, similar to how NWS rates tornadoes.
Quoting stormchaser19:


I can't imagine this hurricane in the North of GOM


Oh my goodness I would have already been packing up and driving north before the opened the contraflow.
Quoting JLPR2:


Still...
I bet Ernesto was really a 90-100mph hurricane.


Agreed.
Quoting Ameister12:
Well, off to bed. Night all.

Night Ameister12

Quoting WxGeekVA:
This is definitely no 85 MPH cane... Beautiful pinhole right now, I'm guessing this was approaching Cat 3 intensity at landfall...


Definitely a cat 2 hurricane, maybe a post season upgrade.

Quoting KoritheMan:
If this year's hurricane season fails to give me a good chase, I demand to be recompensed through a harsh, brutal winter. Let it snow let it snow let it snow!
Didn't know you chase hurricanes, hopefully you get the one. If not I'm open for a brutal winter, I need to make up from last year emotionally and money wise.
Quoting KoritheMan:
If this year's hurricane season fails to give me a good chase, I demand to be recompensed through a harsh, brutal winter. Let it snow let it snow let it snow!


Lol. Stop that! Or move Louisiana farther away from me. :P
CTVNews.ca Staff
An emerging strain of influenza that's killed seals off the New England coast may pose a future threat to humans and other wildlife, warns a new report.


An emerging strain of influenza that's killed seals off the New England coast may pose a future threat to humans and other wildlife, warns a new report.

The report, published on July 31 in the journal mBio, said the H3N8 virus caused a fatal outbreak of pneumonia in 162 New England harbour seals from September to December 2011.

The researchers believe the virus may have evolved from a strain that is currently found in birds.

What's particularly concerning is that the virus naturally acquired mutations that are known to boost its transmission and intensity in mammals. And it's this "jumping" from mammal to mammal that's causing scientists to worry it could one day infect humans, according to the report.

"There is a concern that we have a new mammalian-transmissible virus to which humans haven't been exposed yet. It's a combination we haven't seen in disease before," the report's editor Dr. Anne Moscona, professor of pediatrics and of microbiology and immunology at New York's Weill Cornell Medical College, said in a news release.

Researchers believe the H3N8 virus may be the first recorded account of a new group of flu viruses that have the potential to persist and move between species.

Dr. Earl Brown, director of the Emerging Pathogens Research Centre in Ottawa, told CTV News Channel Tuesday that scientists are "always nervous" when they see a virus switching from mammal to mammal.

"The virus is always in water fowl, so when you see it move into another mammal, it makes you ask: 'Well, what's going on here? And can this thing change enough to get into people?'" he said.

Brown said the virus may have passed onto the seals through bird droppings that land on the seals' eyes and noses.

The fear is that once the virus has acclimatized to the seal, it could then pass to another mammal, he said.

However, if the H3N8 strain starts to infect people, there is an H3 vaccine that could help prevent the spread of the flu, said Brown.

"It wouldn't be that we'd be totally flatfooted; we may have some past antibodies that would help us in our past vaccines," he said. "We may be able to get up to vaccine status pretty quick if it came."

The authors of the study say it is crucial to continue to monitor the virus to better predict how new strains of influenza may emerge in the future, as well as to prevent future pandemics.
Quoting stormchaser19:


I can't imagine this hurricane in the North of GOM


If this thing had of shot the gap into the GOM... Man, it would probably have made Cat 5 before hitting the US... Good thing he didn't get stronger faster, otherwise that could have happened.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW
OF FLORENCE LOCATED ABOUT 580 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
1244. WoodyFL
i think 92 has bigger storms on its northern parts now

Quoting WxGeekVA:
This is definitely no 85 MPH cane... Beautiful pinhole right now, I'm guessing this was approaching Cat 3 intensity at landfall...



totally not.. look ay that eye...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Stop that! Or move Louisiana farther away from me. :P


Oh come on. When have I ever done you wrong? :)
20120807 2345 18.7 87.3 T4.5/4.5 05L ERNESTO

This is weird.... how can this be right.
Would this be a double eye?


btw it is a few hours old
1248. TXCWC
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Thanks TX. I didn't have that one. :)


No problem - glad I could help :)
1249. WoodyFL
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ummmmm. I don't know. I'm sorry someone yelled at you. Next time just pretend they didn't lol.


I dont mind. I was just kidding. I see you all have fun yelling at each other.
Quoting 7544:


cmc also shows a fl. system on the 12th possible flo ?
Link


Could be. I don't know what else that would be.
Quoting AussieStorm:

20120807 2345 18.7 87.3 T4.5/4.5 05L ERNESTO


That was taken at 2345 UTC. It is now 0600 UTC, so it's several hours old. They aren't allowed to do Dvorak estimates with a system overland.
Current Conditions for Consejo, Belize
Belize/Mexico Border - 
Across The Rio Hondo From Chetumal.
Location: 18.27N   88.18W

Wind WSW @ 16kts  -  Gusts to 34kts

Pressure: 996.6mb rising

Temp: 76F

Rain Rate: 4.18 in/hr

Storm Total Rain: 4.28 inches
1:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 8
Location: 18.8N 88.3W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph



This is not an 80mph hurricane.
Quoting ConsejoBelize:
Current Conditions for Consejo, Belize
Belize/Mexico Border - 
Across The Rio Hondo From Chetumal.
Location: 18.27N   88.18W

Wind WSW @ 16kts  -  Gusts to 34kts

Pressure: 996.6mb rising

Temp: 76F

Rain Rate: 4.18 in/hr

Storm Total Rain: 4.28 inches


Nice to see a blogger near the landfall location. I doubt it'll be anything serious, but please keep us posted.
1255. Ryuujin
Hey Mississippi,

With the arrival of that eye over land, do you think that Ernesto could maintain Hurricane Strength even going over that really rough part of the Yucatan Pen? And if so, what are the steering currents like for a hurricane that might intensify straight off the coast?
1256. WoodyFL
Quoting 7544:


cmc also shows a fl. system on the 12th possible flo ?
Link


the old florence is looking better.

I think Ernesto is mad at us for understating his wind speeds so he is gonna show us his evil eye and give us the stare :p.... shuld b stonger then 85mph.... At least 95-100
Quoting KoritheMan:


That was taken at 2345 UTC. It is now 0600 UTC, so it's several hours old. They aren't allowed to do Dvorak estimates with a system overland.

Yeah I added that to my comment.
Quoting MississippiWx:
1:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 8
Location: 18.8N 88.3W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES05402012221 u2fGWa.jpg

This is not an 80mph hurricane.


There isn't much they can do when they're restricted by Dvorak constraints. Not to mention surface observations are quite scarce in this region.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've actually been really busy. Work + blogging multiple simultaneous systems = tired me. :(


Busy on both oceans, yeah I can see why you're wiped after everything. Looks to be an active month, I hope it's a miss, but it's been 7 years and either of our states are bound to get hit sooner or later.
Quoting huntsvle:


It's most definitely going to be a busy couple of weeks. With that and the next wave that looks to be promising coming off africa soon...many of us are going to be very busy. I can't express this enough, but if you haven't already you need to go through your hurricane checklist and supply kit just in case.


I'M from DR and the wave that is comming of africa looks like he don't want pick up, the position of the ridge is the problem is to far to the south, and i think this storm will impact the north side of my country if the trend continues
Quoting caneswatch:


Busy on both oceans, yeah I can see why you're wiped after everything. Looks to be an active month, I hope it's a miss, but it's been 7 years and either of our states are bound to get hit sooner or later.


The entire US is bound to get hit sooner or later. If I had to choose the three most likely states in a given order, it would be:

Florida
North Carolina
Texas

Sorry AtHome. I swear I have nothing against you, sweetie.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Could be. I don't know what else that would be.


Coming up from the Caribbean, might be something brewing down there, but what could it be?
Quoting Ryuujin:
Hey Mississippi,

With the arrival of that eye over land, do you think that Ernesto could maintain Hurricane Strength even going over that really rough part of the Yucatan Pen? And if so, what are the steering currents like for a hurricane that might intensify straight off the coast?


Howdy.

Well, now that he's inland he should begin to weaken rather quickly. I think he's currently stronger than the NHC's numbers, so that probably means that he will be downgraded before I think he should. He still has about 12 hours of traversing the Yucatan before he reemerges in the Bay of Campeche. Despite the NHC being more conservative with their intensity estimate, Ernesto still isn't going to survive as a hurricane all the way. Since Ernesto is missing the highest terrain of the Yucatan, his circulation should stay intact and he should start strengthening immediately on the other side. Even if he reaches major hurricane status, the steering should remain the same due to the strong ridge over the Southern Plains.
Quoting KoritheMan:


The entire US is bound to get hit sooner or later. If I had to choose the three most likely states in a given order, it would be:

Florida
North Carolina
Texas

Sorry AtHome. I swear I have nothing against you, sweetie.


This is gonna be one long season, I'm dreading it already.
Quoting stormchaser19:


I'M from DR and the wave that is comming of africa looks like he don't want pick up, the position of the ridge is the problem is to far to the south, and i think this storm will impact the north side of my country if the trend continues


Well the issue is not that it's just one ridge. It's really two separate ridges that are adjusting steering around the CONUS changes in either ridge could affect the movement of a TC. It's also that time of year where the ridges back off a little bit. Mid august is when Southern parts of TX/LA see some weakening. Should a storm be far enough north on it's track, the ridge can carry it around. That's what happened with Ike and we were completely devastated here.
1267. Ryuujin
Quoting MississippiWx:


Howdy.

Well, now that he's inland he should begin to weaken rather quickly. I think he's currently stronger than the NHC's numbers, so that probably means that he will be downgraded before I think he should. He still has about 12 hours of traversing the Yucatan before he reemerges in the Bay of Campeche. Despite the NHC being more conservative with their intensity estimate, Ernesto still isn't going to survive as a hurricane all the way. Since Ernesto is missing the highest terrain of the Yucatan, his circulation should stay intact and he should start strengthening immediately on the other side. Even if he reaches major hurricane status, the steering should remain the same due to the strong ridge over the Southern Plains.


Thanks. I'm just wondering because I know we're forecast to get some cooler weather here in the Midwest over the next couple of days and that usually = trof for us (especially during this time of year.) Interesting developments to say the least.
We are currently only about 25 miles south of the center of Ernesto with 10 minute average winds of 19kts. I am not complaining, but I would have thought an 80mph storm would produce a little higher winds.

Lots of rain, though/
I don't mean to brag or anything, but someone got Ernesto's eventual track right before he entered the Caribbean. :-D I may have been a little far north since I was biased to Northern Mexico, but my reasoning was sufficient.

Link



I Spy Ernesto
Quoting caneswatch:


This is gonna be one long season, I'm dreading it already.


One long August for sure. Have you been keeping tabs on the GFS lately?
Quoting MississippiWx:
I don't mean to brag or anything, but someone got Ernesto's eventual track right before he entered the Caribbean. :-D I may have been a little far north since I was biased to Northern Mexico, but my reasoning was sufficient.

Link



Yes yes, we know. Don't think our rivalry ends here! :P
Quoting Ryuujin:


Thanks. I'm just wondering because I know we're forecast to get some cooler weather here in the Midwest over the next couple of days and that usually = trof for us (especially during this time of year.) Interesting developments to say the least.


You guys need the break in temps! Hopefully that means you'll be receiving some rains as well.

About that trough, it just shows you how close the US was to seeing the wrath of Ernesto. Trough being a little faster and Ernesto being a little slower could have changed everything.
1274. WoodyFL
As they mentioned earlier here this storm over africa looks very strong.

1275. WoodyFL
Quoting WoodyFL:
As they mentioned earlier here this storm over africa looks very strong.



History, anyone?

"The vigorous westward-moving tropical wave that spawned Danielle moved off the west coast of Africa early on 12 August. While over land, the system already possessed several characteristics associated with tropical cyclones - a well-defined low-level wind field, bands of deep convection spiraling into the center, and a well-established anticyclonic outflow pattern. After the wave reached the warm Atlantic waters about 450 n mi southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, more deep convection developed near the center of circulation. Curved convective bands became better defined and Dvorak satellite classifications were initiated at 1800 UTC that day. The wave moved west-northwestward at 12-14 kt, becoming better organized, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed from it around 1200 UTC 13 August about 210 n mi southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in Figure 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1."
Quoting KoritheMan:


The entire US is bound to get hit sooner or later. If I had to choose the three most likely states in a given order, it would be:

Florida
North Carolina
Texas

Sorry AtHome. I swear I have nothing against you, sweetie.


Lol. Be careful we share some of those storms. ;)
Quoting WoodyFL:
As they mentioned earlier here this storm over africa looks very strong.




Anyone have thoughts about that circulation in the NW corner of the loop. It doesn't have a lot of convection but it's most definitely a good circulation. If you loop that image you can see that it appears to be making a little turnabout and may just hop in line with the others??
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes yes, we know. Don't think our rivalry ends here! :P


Makes me not want to do another blog. Why risk my 100% accuracy?
Quoting wxchaser97:
Blog on the full Atlantic, go check it out!


Was wondering what happened to it.
1282. WoodyFL
Quoting huntsvle:



Anyone have thoughts about that circulation in the NW corner of the loop. It doesn't have a lot of convection but it's most definitely a good circulation. If you loop that image you can see that it appears to be making a little turnabout and may just hop in line with the others??


I don't post much so I don't loop,
Quoting MississippiWx:


Makes me not want to do another blog. Why risk my 100% accuracy?


Oh, so you're taking the easy way out are, you? I thought you were a man! :P
Poppin in to see that E came in a bit south of where I thought (Punta Allen) but not too far away. Think he'll make the BOC. Lots to watch ahead for sure. Rest up 'cane people....
Quoting WoodyFL:


I don't wanna be sarcastic but i think this wave maybe enter in the atlantic like a T.D
Quoting stormchaser19:


I don't wanna be sarcastic but i think this wave maybe enter in the atlantic like a T.D


I actually agree.
1287. WoodyFL
Quoting huntsvle:



Anyone have thoughts about that circulation in the NW corner of the loop. It doesn't have a lot of convection but it's most definitely a good circulation. If you loop that image you can see that it appears to be making a little turnabout and may just hop in line with the others??


Yes, that is an upper low which is expected to impact Europe in a few days.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, so you're taking the easy way out are, you? I thought you were a man! :P


Oh hush you're whining! I'll do another one when something develops or is a threat to develop.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Was wondering what happened to it.

Was doing multiple things at once and it's late at night.
Quoting stormchaser19:


I don't wanna be sarcastic but i think this wave maybe enter in the atlantic like a T.D

Where's the sarcasm!?
Quoting huntsvle:

Where's the sarcasm!?


LOL
1292. WoodyFL
Somebody posted a storm today that really formed over africa and it was named while still over land. I think 1973 but forgot the name.
Quoting WoodyFL:
Somebody posted a storm today that really formed over africa and it was named while still over land. I think 1973 but forgot the name.

1294. WoodyFL
Quoting stormchaser19:


I don't wanna be sarcastic but i think this wave maybe enter in the atlantic like a T.D


If you look at it animated it is actually moving SW over Africa not really westward. So I would think it has even a better chance to develop coming off at a lower latitude. Can someone post the animation?
Quoting wxchaser97:



Formed over Africa then died before it could even reach hurricane status. LOL.

Meet Buzz Killington.
Seems to me like the NHC is being more conservative than usual this year...
Quoting WoodyFL:
Somebody posted a storm today that really formed over africa and it was named while still over land. I think 1973 but forgot the name.


wxchaser97 ya just beat me dude
Quoting WoodyFL:
Somebody posted a storm today that really formed over africa and it was named while still over land. I think 1973 but forgot the name.


Christine:

Quoting KoritheMan:


Christine:



Yeah, we get it. This is the 3rd post in response to the question.

:-D
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, we get it. This is the 3rd post in response to the question.

:-D


I hate you.
1301. JLPR2
Ha!
Quoting MississippiWx:


Formed over Africa then died before it could even reach hurricane status. LOL.

Meet Buzz Killington.

Buzz kill, the wave over Africa does look good but 92L is the first threat for development.
1303. WoodyFL
Quoting stormchaser19:


I don't wanna be sarcastic but i think this wave maybe enter in the atlantic like a T.D


I won't mind if you are sarcastic. It would make me a little more comfortable with you all. I see how you are with each other. If you were all polite Id feel left out.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, we get it. This is the 3rd post in response to the question.

:-D

And posted it first:)
1306. WoodyFL
Yea thats it christine. who posted it today?
waitin on latest image forever
finally got it
last one till after 8 am
iam going to hit the rack


T.C.O.L.
WEAKENING FLAG ON
05L/XH/E/XX


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
waitin on latest image forever
finally got it
last one till after 8 am
iam going to hit the rack


T.C.O.L.
WEAKENING FLAG ON
05L/XH/E/XX



Night Keeper, he is still looking good and holding on to that eye.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
waitin on latest image forever
finally got it
last one till after 8 am
iam going to hit the rack


T.C.O.L.
WEAKENING FLAG ON
05L/XH/E/XX




We say "the sack" here in the south. Guess your way sounds a little better.

...On second thought, no it doesn't.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Whooaaa. Someone woke up on the wrong side of Baton Rouge.

U mad?





Only when you're around.
1312. WoodyFL
I have a link I think you all might like. Someone on here gave it to me a long time ago. all you have to do is click on it a few time and it tracks the storm for you. I hope you like it.

Link
Quoting KoritheMan:


Only when you're around.


I'd be mad too if I had predicted a Central Gulf landfall.

Ohhhhhhh snap.
Ladies... Calm down... No need to go to U mad bro right now!
whooaaaaa what happened to ernesto wth it looks like a cat 4 over land woww and he couldnt do this over water im so shocked right now becuase of the impressive eye..this better be a major
Quoting WoodyFL:
I have a link I think you all might like. Someone on here gave it to me a long time ago. all you have to do is click on it a few time and it tracks the storm for you. I hope you like it.

Link


Thanks. :)
1319. WoodyFL
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Thanks. :)


yw hope you like it.
Quoting WoodyFL:
I have a link I think you all might like. Someone on here gave it to me a long time ago. all you have to do is click on it a few time and it tracks the storm for you. I hope you like it.

Link


Cool, I'll have to use that one next time.
Evening all... haven't checked in at all today so I'd just thought I'd share my thoughts.

Ernesto is looking really, really impressive. I find it very hard to believe it made landfall in the Yucatan as an 85 mph storm. More than likely it was stronger. The NHC has got to stop being conservative when they have folks in the line of fire. Fish storm? Sure, but a storm that is expected to affect land? Heck no. In any case... that eye looks really impressive. We should count our lucky stars that it stayed weak throughout the Caribbean. We could have dealt with a much stronger storm in the central GOM by this time, I shudder to even think of that. We really got off the hook with this one. As far as the track goes, it will probably weaken to a moderate/strong TS by the time it finishes traversing the Yucatan, but once it gets into the BOC, boy it won't take long for it to reintensify given the favorable environment and the history that area has had with tropical systems. Could be pushing Cat 2 or 3 before it makes its final landfall in central Mexico. As far as what the models are showing, I am very concerned about the pattern ahead, as it could be favorable for an east coast strike. We shall see.
Quoting AussieStorm:




LOL...Nice.
Quoting MississippiWx:


My bad. I'm just a little agitated that your GF is late for our nightly meeting. Plane travel gets a little hectic, I guess. Still agitated, though.


And I thought I was the immature 17 year old teenager on the blog... GF as a comeback? Wow, pretty sure that was cool/funny/effective back in freshman year...
1325. WoodyFL
Quoting MississippiWx:


Cool, I'll have to use that one next time.


I guess you might using it. Do you all want the link to the main page? I don't think he will mind if i give it to you.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


And I thought I was the immature 17 year old teenager on the blog... GF as a comeback? Wow, pretty sure that was cool/funny/effective back in freshman year...


LOL.

Don't make me do a U MAD reference..
Quoting WxGeekVA:


And I thought I was the immature 17 year old teenager on the blog... GF as a comeback? Wow, pretty sure that was cool/funny/effective back in freshman year...


1328. WoodyFL
The african wave just updated


Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL.

Don't make me do a U MAD reference..


I wouldn't advise trying to out-meme me... As many people on this blog know, I post a lot of good ones.
check out the 2am spagehti models for 92l.....
sure hope it steers clear of the gom
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (1211)
15:00 PM JST August 8 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Central China

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haikui (985 hPa) located at 30.2N 120.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: Overland

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 31.2N 118.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
48 HRS: 31.3N 118.5E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China
Quoting justsouthofnola:
check out the 2am spagehti models for 92l.....
sure hope it steers clear of the gom


Hmmmmm.....gfs ensembles in pretty good agreement on this one. The gfs has it all the way in the carribean.
Hey guys,

I have been a lurker here for a while, but I must say that I find the late-night "humor" from you people quite entertaining xD. Anyways, Ernesto popping an eye after landfall was a bit of a surprise to me. Nonetheless, it has managed to sustain it, too!
Someone forgot to tell Ernesto that he's supposed to weaken on land.

1/3 of the way across...

EURO showing storm behind 92l also but it takes it north unlike the CMC and GFS. Looks like there's a lot of agreement on development anyway.

Quoting MississippiWx:
Someone forgot to tell Ernesto that he's supposed to weaken on land.

1/3 of the way across...



If that doesn't change, that could spell some trouble once he's in the BOC
Quoting AussieStorm:


Hey, is that Kori??
Quoting patrikdude2:
Hey guys,

I have been a lurker here for a while, but I must say that I find the late-night "humor" from you people quite entertaining xD. Anyways, Ernesto popping an eye after landfall was a bit of a surprise to me. Nonetheless, it has managed to sustain it, too!


Good to have you.

Ernie was close to popping the eye out over water. Friction with land helped to finish the job. He'll most likely begin to weaken more quickly in the next few hours.
I will be very interested to see how quick the NHC is in mentioning the African wave.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Good to have you.

Ernie was close to popping the eye out over water. Friction with land helped to finish the job. He'll most likely begin to weaken more quickly in the next few hours.


Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, what a pisser.



Quoting AllStar17:
I will be very interested to see how quick the NHC is in mentioning the African wave.

I'd say pretty soon since it is still looking impressive.
Quoting WxGeekVA:




Eh, dog peeing on keyboard = funnier than Condescending Wonka. :-D
wats good everyone! just got off work and i see ernesto finally on land. anything new popping blog all day today?
Quoting AllStar17:
I will be very interested to see how quick the NHC is in mentioning the African wave.
Probably once it reach the Atlantic ocean I am very concern right now that is over Africa because if I remember correctly the TW that became Maria when it was over Africa it produce flash floods and loose of life and this looks stronger than the one it produce Maria last year.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Good to have you.

Ernie was close to popping the eye out over water. Friction with land helped to finish the job. He'll most likely begin to weaken more quickly in the next few hours.
Thanks :). Ye, looking at recent IR imagery, you can see the eyewall cloudtops have started to decrease in intensity, based on satellite.
Quoting AllStar17:
I will be very interested to see how quick the NHC is in mentioning the African wave.


Probably when the thing reaches the ocean.
Quoting WxGeekVA:




I will say sometimes things get funny on here and also that Ernesto is keeping his shape and intensity up.
In fact:

Thats most likely the last memes of the night for me.
Hello night crew, been out since this afternoon

Very impressive satellite and radar presentation of Ernesto! For those admonishing the NHC for being conservative, they had no actual data to work with. No RECON flight, cannot use Dvorak estimates while crossing the coastline with very little obs near the center of the storm. He will remain an 85 mph hurricane at landfall. But as we were expecting his eye cleared out and eyewall convection intensified as soon as the frictional land effects came into play. Who knows how strong he really is now and was at the time of landfall but we have absolutely no data to back it up. He will emerge into the Bay with in very good shape and it won't take long for the warm waters and the anticyclone overhead to get him going again.

Thank your higher power that he didn't have 6 more hours over water because we'd be watching a major hurricane pummeling thru there most likely.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Eh, dog peeing on keyboard = funnier than Condescending Wonka. :-D


Touché...
Quoting wxchaser97:


I will say sometimes things get funny on here and also that Ernesto is keeping his shape and intensity up.
In fact:

Thats most likely the last memes of the night for me.


I thought he did begin to weaken?

Quoting RussianWinter:


I thought he did begin to weaken?


Barely, but way less than I thought and his circulation will remain well intact.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Touché...


It has been fun harassing you and Kori tonight.

This guy has to get some sleep. Good night to all.
Quoting MississippiWx:


It has been fun harassing you and Kori tonight.

This guy has to get some sleep. Good night to all.

Good night MSWx, good thing I didn't get harassed tonight:)
Considering the fact that Ernesto has managed to maintained it's overall structure and organization a few hours after landfall combined with the compact size, it may not be farfetched that it could reintensify to a Cat 2 in my opinion.
that african wave is viscious!!
Quoting MississippiWx:


It has been fun harassing you and Kori tonight.

This guy has to get some sleep. Good night to all.


We'll have to resume sometime when I'm not on my phone and I have hundreds of memes on my computer I could use...
Quoting patrikdude2:
Considering the fact that Ernesto has managed to maintained it's overall structure and organization a few hours after landfall combined with the compact size, it may not be farfetched that it could reintensify to a Cat 2 in my opinion.
i was thinking the same, like 100 mph or 105 before next landfall.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


We'll have to resume sometime when I'm not on my phone and I have hundreds of memes on my computer I could use...

The horror that will come, lol. Night everyone, I got to get to bed.
Quoting bigwes6844:
that african wave is viscious!!
92L looks terrible nights people.
Quoting bigwes6844:
that african wave is viscious!!
LOL, Fat comma shape xD
Quoting allancalderini:
92L looks terrible nights people.
yeah i see dat! must be that SAL or dry air
We have Tropical Storm Gilma in the EPAC













Ernesto













92L










I thought I came to Jeff Master's blog, not Reddit.

le go away to >>>/reddit/, we have a hurricane that's made landfall.
Too. Many. GIFs! My phone can't handle it, can you please take some down? TYIA
Quoting FloridaTigers:
I thought I came to Jeff Master's blog, not Reddit.

le go away to >>>/reddit/, we have a hurricane that's made landfall.


You're a Redditor too? You subscribe to r/weather, I posted there asking if anyone there posts here too?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


You're a Redditor too? You subscribe to r/weather, I posted there asking if anyone there posts here too?


No, Reddit is awful.
CIMSS steering analysis showing the central US mid level ridging consolidating to Ernesto's NW. This should hopefully dispell those theories running around that he will track WNW across the Bay and S-ern GOM. The track reasoning is extremely clear cut now, hence the agreement in the global models.
Quoting FloridaTigers:


No, Reddit is awful.


Are you from 4chan or 9gag then?
1378. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
IRWIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
TIFT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 545 AM EDT

* AT 331 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED FLASH
FLOODING FROM AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA. THESE
PERSISTENT STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES
EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OCILLA AND
MYSTIC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

REPORT FLOODING OR FLOOD DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.



LAT...LON 3145 8315 3137 8323 3135 8334 3135 8351
3156 8361 3159 8350 3166 8344 3167 8338
3165 8318 3168 8317 3166 8303



17-GOULD
1379. LargoFl
1380. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
328 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

GAZ132-149-080830-
ATKINSON-COFFEE-
328 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ATKINSON AND
COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 430 AM
EDT...

AT 328 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
AMBROSE TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF WILLACOOCHEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
WILLACOOCHEE...AMBROSE...PEARSON...DOUGLAS...BROX TON...AXSON AND WEST
GREEN THROUGH 430 AM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3152 8309 3161 8306 3164 8302 3169 8300
3170 8284 3167 8284 3167 8271 3167 8270
3129 8266 3128 8270 3123 8270 3119 8267
3118 8304 3127 8304 3133 8307 3140 8314
3147 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 267DEG 15KT 3160 8305 3123 8301

$$

HESS
1382. LargoFl
An angled look at the storm over Africa:

1384. LargoFl
Quoting GTcooliebai:
An angled look at the storm over Africa:

..good morning GT..92L looks like its dying yet NHC has it at 30%...and ex florence at 0%...looks like we have some peace for a week once ernesto dies off
1387. LargoFl
.........................................Good morning folks..looks like most of florida is back to normal now, a drying out time at last with maybe the normal afternoon stuff..........have a great day everyone
Quoting LargoFl:
..good morning GT..92L looks like its dying yet NHC has it at 30%...and ex florence at 0%...looks like we have some peace for a week once ernesto dies off
Good morning Largo. I see that convection has waned over the past couple of hours on 92L. Ex-Florence looks dead and there will be a new, what looks like the strongest wave of the season yet coming off the coast of Africa in the next 24-48 hours that the GFS shows developing. Looks like Cape Verde Season will be in full swing soon. We'll have to watch over the next week to see how the Ridge in the Atlantic steers these systems. A stronger Ridge will likely mean storms getting dangerously close to the East Coast and a weaker Ridge would tend to recurve storms away from the US.

Oh and we'll still be tracking Ernesto when it emerges in the Bay of Campeche where it has the possibility to re-intensify and make a 2nd landfall.
I feel an outbreak of wave hysteria is about to start

Quoting lightning75:
I feel an outbreak of wave hysetria is about to start



Already well and truly started lol since we have bloggers posting GFS runs 10+ days out on it. It should be a violation of the website's T&C to do this when there are tropical cyclones that actually exist threatening lives and property. Just my 2 cents though :P
Quoting lightning75:
I feel an outbreak of wave hysteria is about to start



Hmmm...the wave onland in Africa could be TD the second it hits water.


000
WTNT35 KNHC 080855
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

CORRECTED HEADER FROM HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM

...ERNESTO BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO
TUXPAN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO TULUM. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF TULUM HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON.
ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ERNESTO COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. A
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting huntsvle:


Hmmm...the wave onland in Africa could be TD the second it hits water.



I believe it is also the bad boy the GFS has been putting forward to sweep the entire east coast



Quoting lightning75:



I believe it is also the bad boy the GFS has been put forward to sweep the entire east coast




look at the bad boy behind it. wow
Quoting lightning75:


LOL

what number was that comment, I don't see it. I wonder why.

Quoting lightning75:



I believe it is also the bad boy the GFS has been putting forward to sweep the entire east coast



which one is dat by florida? and where its going?
Ernesto is about half way through it's traverse of the Yucatan Peninsular.


Australian Sally Pearson clocked an Olympic record of 12.35 to edge out the USA's defending champion Dawn Harper into silver by just 0.02 seconds. Another USA athlete, Kellie Wells, took the bronze in 12.48.

Quoting bigwes6844:
which one is dat by florida? and whert going?


Well the 18z last frame has it has it somewhere below greenland :p and dont dare look at what is coming next ....

Quoting lightning75:


Well the 18z last frame has it has it somewhere below greenland :p and dont dare look at what is coming next ....




Yeeeesh...it's gonna be a long month. lol
Quoting lightning75:


Well the 18z last frame has it has it somewhere below greenland :p and dont dare look at what is coming next ....


OMGOSH,,, no way!!!!
Quoting AussieStorm:

OMGOSH,,, no way!!!!


Well it is the GFS ....oh yeah thats right they nailed practically everything this year ...even Debby
Quoting lightning75:


Well the 18z last frame has it has it somewhere below greenland :p and dont dare look at what is coming next ....

say what! look at those highs!! OMG this may get into the GOM if that pattern stays the same!
Quoting lightning75:


Well it is the GFS ....oh yeah thats right they nailed practically everything this year ...even Debby
so that monster going up the east seaboard would be ex flo? and the first storm would be gordon? then helene? and then issac?
Quoting bigwes6844:
so that monster going up the east seaboard would be ex flo? and the first storm would be gordon? then helene? and then issac?


Na Its Gordon the big wave getting ready to fall off the African coast ,unless something spawns before then....Real hysteria is soon to commence , with everyone screaming DOOM....If the GFS model is near right or even before then....
Quoting bigwes6844:
so that monster going up the east seaboard would be ex flo? and the first storm would be gordon? then helene? and then issac?
|
No,the monster is gordon, which should be over cape verde in about 3 days
92L will probably be down to 20% looks terrible.
The 9amGMT NHC.Advisory has since downgraded Ernesto from Hurricane to a TropicalStorm, but...

Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneErnesto for 8August06amGMT:
MinimumPressure increased from 980millibars to 983millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 75knots(86mph)139km/h to 70knots(81mph)130km/h
Its vector changed from 277.7*West@17.6mph(28.4km/h) to 275.2*NWest@13.2mph(21.2km/h)

CME-Ciudad del Carmen :: CPE-Campeche :: CTM-Chetumal :: SJX-Sarteneja :: MHIC-SwanIsland

The (eastern) kinked line marks Ernesto's path on its 5th day as a TropicalStorm
The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where TS.Ernesto became HurricaneErnesto
The westernmost dot on the longest line line is its most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Ernesto's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
8August3:15amGMT: H.Ernesto made landfall near Mahahual,CostaMaya
8August6amGMT: H.Ernesto was heading for a return to the sea near Sabancuy in ~10hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste snj, mhic, sjx, ctm, cpe, cme, vsa, 16.2n81.2w- 16.7n82.2w- 17.3n83.3w- 17.8n84.4w- 18.5n85.5w, 18.5n85.5w-18.7n87.1w, 18.7n87.1w-18.8n88.3w, 18.7n87.1w-19.009n91.158w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison.
Quoting lightning75:


Na Its Gordon the big wave getting ready to fall off the African coast ,unless something spawns before then....Real hysteria is soon to commence , with everyone screaming DOOM....If the GFS model pans out or even before then....

GFS had performed probably well beyond even its owners' expectations. Wouldn't mind Dr. Jeff doing a blog entry on the changes to GFS.
Quoting allancalderini:
92L will probably be down to 20% looks terrible.
thats.bad???.
Ernesto is getting close to BOC now.




Good morning. 6z GFS:



The important thing right now is not to focus on landfall locations; 18z last night had a storm recurve out to sea, 0z brought it to the Southeast, and now 6z is bringing it to the Northeast. The important thing is to realize that there is a pretty decent chance we will be tracking a good size storm across the Atlantic for the next 2 weeks. The ECMWF is on board now as well.
Quoting islander101010:
thats.bad.
Yeah...
I am not feeling to well. I am going to go to bed early and Hope to raise early feeling much better.
Goodnight all Stay well, Stay safe
Quoting AussieStorm:
Ernesto is getting close to BOC now.




Looks like its moving west southwest.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I am not feeling to well. I am going to go to bed early and Hope to raise early feeling much better.
Goodnight all Stay well, Stay safe
Hope you feel good when you wake up :)
Good morning to all.

TAFB at 06Z surface analysis has a 1007mb low with big African wave.

1421. WxLogic
Good Morning
Quoting lightning75:


Well the 18z last frame has it has it somewhere below greenland :p and dont dare look at what is coming next ....



Lets hope we get a storm that is fun to track but does not cause too much if any carnage. A TS in the gulf of Maine maybe that would be nice.
Quoting lightning75:
I feel an outbreak of wave hysteria is about to start


Will be Gordon the instant it hits water.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


Lets hope we get a storm that is fun to track but does not cause too much if any carnage. A TS in the gulf of Maine maybe that would be nice.


Yeah, lets hope that gfs run doesn't pan out. Something like that would be horrific for the north east states
Quoting mcluvincane:


Yeah, lets hope that gfs run doesn't pan out. Something like that would be horrific for the north east states
And just a year after Irene.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Will be Gordon the instant it hits water.


Possibly....



Quoting lightning75:


Possibly....



not.this.yr.so.far
Quoting bigwes6844:
that african wave is viscious!!

Nearly a TS already. 100s of miles from the warm waters of the east atlantic. WACH OUT!!! CV season has startes and with the steering pattern the US should be on guard. And prepared for a major hurricane to hit.
Quoting lightning75:


Possibly....





Holy cow.....
Good morning, everyone. Looks like a normal hot day here in Louisiana. Hope everyone has a great Wednesday!
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning
Good morning WxLogic.
1433. hydrus
It is only my opinion, but I think Ernesto was a minimal cat-2 at landfall..If not delicious crow.
1434. hydrus
What is that? Hurricane Sally is hurdeling across the Atlantic with 100m ph win ds for the USA???
1436. LargoFl
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Will be Gordon the instant it hits water.
..lETS NOT FORGET..92l WAS LOOKING GREAT..NOW LOOK AT IT
1437. WxLogic
Quoting weatherb0y:
Good morning WxLogic.


Morning... :)
1438. hydrus
AWIPS images of the 1-km resolution POES AVHRR Cloud Top Temperature (CTT) product indicated that CTT values were as cold as -87º C at 02:12 UTC and -86º C at 03:27 UTC Cloud tops were over 16 kilometers high with overshooting tops.
Quoting biff4ugo:
What is that? Hurricane Sally is hurdeling across the Atlantic with 100m ph win ds for the USA???
Is sandy this year.
92L



Quoting hydrus:
the strongest tropical wave of the season so far will it be Gordon or Helene.
1442. LargoFl
....................................meanwhile back at the farm..back to normal at last
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081148
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting LargoFl:
..lETS NOT FORGET..92l WAS LOOKING GREAT..NOW LOOK AT IT


Understand that but 92L never had great model support either, this is already a 1007 mb low which is very rare indeed
1446. WxLogic
92L appears to be prepping the environment for P13L about to come out from Africa.





We'll see soon how they fair as they go through the ATL and fight off some of that dry air.
People from FL to Maine need to watch this wave as it exits Africa because it is looking likely that a huge hurricane is going to be charging across the Atlantic towards the US.



0Z GFS
We could have Gordon as soon as this wave exits Africa.
Guys chill with the TS the instant it hits the water. You gotta watch how the system does over water. Plenty have fallen apart
Rainy times ahead for FL come this weekend as a strong cold front stalls out over N FL. Lots of cool air coming down from Canada infact some areas of TN adn western N & South Carolina could have lows into the 40's and 50's.

1451. hydrus
There may be a system in the S.E.gulf in 4 days.
Trough to the rescue? It will be interesting for sure!
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Guys chill with the TS the instant it hits the water. You gotta watch how the system does over water. Plenty have fallen apart


Almost all the models are showing this that is why people are saying that.


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 081200
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAMPECHE.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Guys chill with the TS the instant it hits the water. You gotta watch how the system does over water. Plenty have fallen apart


Bow down to the GFS pal. It hasn't been wrong yet this year.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Trough to the rescue? It will be interesting for sure!


Have to watch the timing of these troughs .
Nights people haven`t sleep all night and is now 6 in the morning.
Good morning. It looks to me like Ernesto might not make it back into the water, if he keeps up his current motion.
1459. icmoore
Good morning to all!

Madeira Beach, FL
A Few Clouds
82°F
Humidity94%
Wind SpeedS 7 mph
Barometer30.00 in (1015.8 mb)
Dewpoint80°F (27°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index93°F (34°C)
Last Update on 8 Aug 6:53 am EDT

Be sure y'all let those trains know that all the stations in Florida are closed for the season :)


92L looks good on the visible.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
People from FL to Maine need to watch this wave as it exits Africa because it is looking likely that a huge hurricane is going to be charging across the Atlantic towards the US.



0Z GFS




Right, and so the rest of the people in the eastern north american coast(ie; atlantic canada) need not worry?....
Quoting StormTracker2K:
We could have Gordon as soon as this exits Africa.

If not before.
I think Christine developed inside africa.
Quoting Terradad:
Good morning. It looks to me like Ernesto might not make it back into the water, if he keeps up his current motion.
Agree.
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Guys chill with the TS the instant it hits the water. You gotta watch how the system does over water. Plenty have fallen apart
True. We've seen many beautiful and robust lows with hefty model support step magnificently off of Africa's west coast, only to dissipate into a bunch of scattered rainstorms within 24 hours of touching the water. You might want to give them a day or two before plotting U.S. landfall locations and times...
This could be a first major cane of the season!

Interesting how Skyepony pointed out the non-task NOAA flight just above Haiti yesterday. There is a wave there now and Flo maybe in the vicinity in 24 to 48 hrs. if it survives today. Maybe interesting to watch today.
Looking at the steering winds-stronger, lower pressure storms track more west right now %$#@.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
People from FL to Maine need to watch this wave as it exits Africa because it is looking likely that a huge hurricane is going to be charging across the Atlantic towards the US.



0Z GFS


It has been a long time since I have seen a wave like the one that is about to exit Africa. That is one wicked wave!
1469. hydrus
Quoting bluesydeacon:




Right, and so the rest of the people in the eastern north american coast(ie; atlantic canada) need not worry?....
This is true. The Canadian Maritimes have been nailed repeatedly by huge storms..Tropical and non tropical. Igor fresh in the minds of many. WIKI..Hurricane Igor was the most destructive tropical cyclone to strike the Canadian island of Newfoundland on record. Igor originated from a broad area of low pressure that moved off the west coast of Africa on September 6, 2010. Tracking slowly westward, it developed into a tropical depression on September 8 and strengthened into tropical storm shortly thereafter. Higher wind shear temporarily halted intensification over the following days. On September 12, explosive intensification took place, and Igor reached Category 4 status on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. By this time, Igor had already begun a prolonged turn around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Peaking with winds of 155 mph (250 km/h), the cyclone began to enter an area unfavorable for continued strengthening, and Igor gradually weakened before brushing Bermuda as a minimal hurricane on September 20. After turning northeastward, the system began an extratropical transition, which it completed shortly after striking southern Newfoundland. The remnants of Igor were later absorbed by another extratropical cyclone over the Labrador Sea on September 23.
Quoting bluesydeacon:




Right, and so the rest of the people in the eastern north american coast(ie; atlantic canada) need not worry?....


I'm sorry I was referring to us here in the US but yes people in Canada will have to watch this as well. I think the pattern favors a SE US hit thought JMO.

it Come of tomorrow??
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This could be a first major cane of the season!

if this is the storm the gfs and euro keep on hinting at it could be bad. if air is moist, warm waters are there for sure and low wind shear, big possible hurricane.
Ernesto had an eye or something i see?
How did landfall go?
Funny it didnt clear out till just after landfall
Quoting Neapolitan:
True. We've seen many beautiful and robust lows with hefty model support step magnificently off of Africa's west coast, only to dissipate into a bunch of scattered rainstorms within 24 hours of touching the water. You might want to give them a day or two before plotting U.S. landfall locations and times...


I agree as that is usually the case but there is model support that this wave is going to take off right away.

1475. hydrus
240 GFS..
CMC new TS by 144HR going to TX??
1477. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Ernesto had an eye or something i see?
How did landfall go?
Funny it didnt clear out till just after landfall
Good morning.
Will it even make it back in?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Ernesto had an eye or something i see?
How did landfall go?
Funny it didnt clear out till just after landfall


Yes very odd.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A sleeper?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Look what the all important xtrp model does:P
next.threat...e.carib.wave...
Quoting kshipre1:
if this is the storm the gfs and euro keep on hinting at it could be bad. if air is moist, warm waters are there for sure and low wind shear, big possible hurricane.


It seems 92L would have moistened the atmosphere enough to clear a path for this wave through the Atlantic to....??
Quoting AussieStorm:
I am not feeling to well. I am going to go to bed early and Hope to raise early feeling much better.
Goodnight all Stay well, Stay safe


Good morning Aussie, hope you feel much better.
Quoting weatherh98:
Will it even make it back in?


It's done. I see very little chance of this making it back over water and even if it does, at best it will only get half its core over water again. We saw this developing last night when it took that hard left turn. It took it's toll on the core and it not gaining any more latitude obviously ended up being it's death sentence.

It's going to be interesting to see what the post analysis is of Ernesto. He had a satellite presentation of a CAT 3 after landfall. He was probably rapidly intensifying as he was making landfall. I still think he was a round a 90 knot to 100 knot storm at max intensity.
About that time of year for the cone.
Quoting islander101010:
next.threat...e.carib.wave...


Yes I agree. There is some model support and the southeast gulf should be favorable!
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning.


*yawn*

good morning hydrus....


was that a pinhole on ernesto?
Any wind reports, damage reports?
Seems like a very small eye and a nice eyewall and CDO If ernesto had had more time would have been a major in no time...might have even been stronger at landfall than the 85mph they gave it...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Neapolitan:
True. We've seen many beautiful and robust lows with hefty model support step magnificently off of Africa's west coast, only to dissipate into a bunch of scattered rainstorms within 24 hours of touching the water. You might want to give them a day or two before plotting U.S. landfall locations and times...
But then we have seen storms form right over Africa and come off and immediately develop with model support..Julie 2010 comes to mind :).
very possibly and the SAL layer is north of 92L. wave behind it I am watching.
1493. SLU
075

WHXX01 KWBC 081255

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1255 UTC WED AUG 8 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120808 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120808 1200 120809 0000 120809 1200 120810 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 35.1W 14.0N 38.0W 14.3N 41.0W 14.5N 44.2W

BAMD 13.5N 35.1W 14.2N 37.1W 14.5N 39.0W 14.5N 40.8W

BAMM 13.5N 35.1W 14.3N 37.3W 14.6N 39.6W 14.8N 41.7W

LBAR 13.5N 35.1W 14.2N 37.7W 14.5N 40.3W 14.6N 42.9W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120810 1200 120811 1200 120812 1200 120813 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.7N 47.7W 15.7N 55.1W 17.1N 62.1W 18.8N 68.1W

BAMD 14.5N 42.6W 14.7N 45.8W 15.2N 49.2W 16.2N 53.6W

BAMM 14.9N 44.0W 15.2N 48.3W 15.8N 52.1W 17.1N 56.2W

LBAR 14.5N 45.7W 15.2N 51.0W 16.9N 54.4W 16.8N 56.3W

SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 53KTS 52KTS

DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 53KTS 52KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 35.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 32.3W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 29.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting weatherh98:


Look what the all important xtrp model does:P


They have the XTRP model running on a new Cray - comes up right away now... ;u)