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Ernesto weakens; Florence forms; fires, historic heat wave in Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2012

Enigmatic Tropical Storm Ernesto continues westward across the Caribbean, but has weakened. Ernesto certainly looks impressive on visible satellite loops, with a symmetric shape, good spiral banding, and an upper-level outflow channel to the north and east. But this morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had weakened, with top winds of just 50 mph, and a central pressure that had risen to 1008 mb. The storm is fighting low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the west side of the storm. Ernesto's rains are staying just north of the ABC Islands, as seen on Aruba radar. The southern shore of the Dominican Republic is experiencing occasional heavy rains from Ernesto's spiral bands.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Ernesto taken at 8 am EDT, with echoes from a microwave satellite instrument in the 85 GHz band superimposed. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto continues to be a major challenge to forecast. Despite the seemingly favorable conditions for intensification expected today through Tuesday, with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, many of our top computer models refuse to predict intensification, and in fact, weaken the storm. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the NOGAPS and GFDL show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. The ECMWF dissipates the storm. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a Category 1 or 2 hurricane in the Caribbean. The official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 1 hurricane between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is a reasonable compromise, but the uncertainty in this is high. It would not be a surprise to see Ernesto mysteriously degrade, or undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 hurricane off the coast of the Yucatan. Such is the state of modern hurricane intensity forecasting. Given that we don't have a very good idea of how strong Ernesto will become, making an accurate track forecast is hard. A stronger Ernesto will be more likely to feel the influence of a trough of low pressure moving to the north of the storm on Tuesday, which would pull the storm to the northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. This would likely result in a landfall in the U.S. A weaker Ernesto is more likely to head almost due west, resulting in a landfall Wednesday in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. This is the more likely solution, given the recent behavior of the storm.

Tropical Storm Florence forms
Tropical Storm Florence has arrived in the far Eastern Atlantic, marking the 3rd earliest date for formation of the Atlantic's sixth named storm. Only 2005 and 1936 had earlier arrivals of the season's sixth storm. The new tropical storm developed unusually quickly from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa just two days ago, and the storm's formation was aided by a pulse warm ocean water and associated low pressure called a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW.) The SHIPS model is diagnosing a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear over Florence, and predicts that the shear will stay in the moderate range over weekend, then increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. The predicted steering current flow for Florence does not favor a long-range threat to any land areas.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A historic heat wave and drought fueled raging fires on Friday in Oklahoma. The fires destroyed at least 65 homes, forced multiple evacuations, and closed major roads. Oklahoma City had its hottest day in history, hitting 113°, tying the city's all-time heat record set on August 11, 1936. The low bottomed out at 84°, the warmest low temperature ever recorded in the city (previous record: a low of 83° on August 13, 1936.) Oklahoma City has now had three consecutive days with a high of 112° or higher, which has never occurred since record keeping began in 1891. With today's high expected to reach 113° again, the streak may extend to four straight days. Yesterday was the third consecutive day with more than a third of Oklahoma experiencing temperatures of 110° or higher, according to readings from the Oklahoma Mesonet. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) declared a "Critical" fire weather day over most of Oklahoma yesterday, due to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds. Between 4 - 5 pm CDT Friday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 113°, a humidity of 12%, and winds of 14 mph gusting to 25 mph. Another "Critical" fire weather day has been declared for Saturday. A cold front approaching from the northwest will bring winds even stronger than Friday's winds, and Oklahoma will likely endure another hellish day of extreme heat, dryness, and fires.


Figure 2. The Geary, Oklahoma fire, looking north, on August, 3, 2012. Image credit: Oklahoma City Fire Department. The Geary fire spawned a gustnado.

Only comparable heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to this week's occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 17 consecutive days with temperatures of 100° or hotter. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three were in 2012, and three were in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Clouds moved in over Tulsa, Oklahoma yesterday, holding down the high temperature to just 107°, ending that city's 3-day streak of 110°+ days. The only longer streak was 5 consecutive days on August 9 - 13, 1936.


Figure 3. Most of Oklahoma has experienced eight consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of 17 such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting ncstorm:
this is not comforting at ALL!!



Eh...16 days out...lol
3502. ncstorm
Quoting floridaboy14:
why not? its recurving out to sea


I posted this yesterday but the GFS has been trending west each run with that storm..when it initially started showing the storm it was almost curving almost east of bermuda and look where it has it now..
No matter how strong he is steering says mexico/campeche bound.
GFS has been showing a S Texas to Mex landfall on Ernesto since Thursday and some earlier runs also had Mex as a target. Also did very well on Debby.
3505. zawxdsk
Quoting lottotexas:
GFS hasn't done a poor job this year.


And the ECMWF has done just fine on Ernesto, too. It never really wanted to develop him. And it appears that Ernesto has had some inherent weaknesses anyway.
3506. Grothar
Anyone having trouble with the CIMSS link? Images are not updating at all.

florence is falling apart also
3508. LargoFl
3509. ncstorm
Quoting jascott1967:


Eh...16 days out...lol


this starts 144 hours out

Quoting ncstorm:


I posted this yesterday but the GFS has been trending west each run with that storm..when it initially started showing the storm it was almost curving almost east of bermuda and look where it has it now..
dont forgot GFS anything 7 days out steering can change. it develops the storm too far north so wait until we get a td out of the wave :)
3511. pottery
Quoting LargoFl:
..well seeing how poor a job the models have done so far..I would not worry until i see the storm actually there..something is off this year,cant put my finger on it but something just isnt right

The models obviously consider historical and climo inputs into the mix of information.
Unfortunately, with the Climate being what it is these days, we are in brand new territory.
There is plenty peculiar weather (known these days as 'historical') and this is because of changes to climate norms.

We have never been here before.
Makes forecasting more vague, at best.
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone having trouble with the CIMSS link? Images are not updating at all.



last image set at 0300 UTC
Quoting guygee:
Well you got OSU...
lol.... I know OK was fighting off some TX attempts to get a hold of their water resources from the eastern part of the state... and pple were concerned that the agreements they were being asked to sign would mean TX would get that water even when OK was in drought and needed it... same thing should go for some of the fracking that's been contaminating water tables in that area....
3514. LargoFl
Quoting pottery:

The models obviously consider historical and climo inputs into the mix of information.
Unfortunately, with the Climate being what it is these days, we are in brand new territory.
There is plenty peculiar weather (known these days as 'historical') and this is because of changes to climate norms.

We have never been here before.
Makes forecasting more vague, at best.
..yes i agree, its just not normal this year, the climate is changing and i guess we need to change along with it
Recon heading to the West now. I do not see a center down where they have investigated so far.

Will be back later on when the HH finishes the mission.
3516. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Actually some of the main reasons Ernesto has struggled have been present in the last two years. Dry air and below climo vertical instability. Ernesto is working without the MJO as well so the synoptic pattern is really not all that conducive at this time in the Caribbean other than high TCHP.

If a storm cannot organise it cannot take advantage of the high heat content to ramp up.

Exactly.
See my post 3511
What does this mean..from the comments on the last recon pass.

LARGE AREA OF L/V SFC WIND, LAST 10 MINS BEFORE FIX.

Not done with coffee yet..
3518. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN AUGLAIZE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
HARDIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 730 AM EDT.

* AT 634 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JACKSON
CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKEVIEW...
RUSSELLS POINT...
WAYNESFIELD...
BELLE CENTER...
ALGER...
KENTON...
DUNKIRK...

IN ADDITION...LEWISTOWN...ROUNDHEAD...STATE ROUTE 195 AT STATE ROUTE
235...JUMBO...WALTON...SILVER CREEK...MCGUFFEY AND HUNTERSVILLE ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO.
Quoting kmanislander:
Recon heading to the West now. I do not see a center down where they have investigated so far.

Will be back later on when the HH finishes the mission.


heading north now
Quoting pottery:

The models obviously consider historical and climo inputs into the mix of information.
Unfortunately, with the Climate being what it is these days, we are in brand new territory.
There is plenty peculiar weather (known these days as 'historical') and this is because of changes to climate norms.

We have never been here before.
Makes forecasting more vague, at best.


deleted, misread the comment
Quoting LargoFl:



Gotta love the HPC and their typical downplaying of rainfall over Florida ;)

We've had more than 25 inches of rain since the rainy season started but with their rainfall forecasts you'd think we might have had only 10.
Quoting kmanislander:
Recon heading to the West now. I do not see a center down where they have investigated so far.

Will be back later on when the HH finishes the mission.

they ne3ed to head north
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


heading north now


And just found 1007 mbs. Presumably they are going to investigate where we are seeing the exposed LLC
Ernie sure looks rather shreaded in RB



to me it gives a clearer picture than this image below
3525. pottery
Quoting jascott1967:


Some of what you say is true but the climate did change over night. This is been a gradual trend and the models should have accounted for these climate trends. So far the models, especially the GFS has done well this season.

I assume you mean 'did not' ?
But yes, some of the models are performing better than others for the time being.
That's normal too.
14.983N 76.767W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,561 meters
(~ 5,121 feet) 1007.0 mb
(~ 29.74 inHg)
3527. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:



Gotta love the HPC and their typical downplaying of rainfall over Florida ;)

We've had more than 25 inches of rain since the rainy season started but with their rainfall forecasts you'd think we might have had only 10.
..yeah i know what you mean jed
3528. pottery
Quoting jascott1967:


deleted, misread the comment

OK
Quoting Skyepony:
What does this mean..from the comments on the last recon pass.

LARGE AREA OF L/V SFC WIND, LAST 10 MINS BEFORE FIX.

Not done with coffee yet..
I need 2 go get me some....
3530. 900MB
Is it too late to retroactively take back my prediction yesterday that Ernie would be a Cat 2 by tonight?
3531. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:


It would be odd for the mid levels to outrun the surface low. The other way around is what tends to happen.
This is true..I would guess that dry air, subsidence, fast trades, and the downward phase did a job on Ernesto. Western Caribbean could revive it quickly tho.
Quoting kmanislander:


And just found 1007 mbs. Presumably they are going to investigate where we are seeing the exposed LLC


looks like it that swirl although still there doesnt look as good on the last 2 frames of the vis as it did a while ago
3533. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
AREAS THAT SEE STRONGER STORMS OR PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND AREA ROADWAYS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROL ON THE
LATEST SURF CONDITIONS WHEN ARRIVING AT THE BEACH AND ALWAYS SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR AREA LAKES AS
THEY MOVE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 5 TO 6
FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF
PLANNING ON VENTURING INTO THESE WATERS.
This just in from the State Dept./NHC. Ernesto's Visa request denied.
up with my cup of coffee, lurking. quiet this morning O_o
3536. hydrus
Quoting 900MB:
Is it too late to retroactively take back my prediction yesterday that Ernie would be a Cat 2 by tonight?
I expected it to weaken, but not this much. Chalk one up for Levi32, he said on his blog that this could happen.
3537. pottery
Quoting gordydunnot:
This just in from the State Dept./NHC. Ernesto's Visa request denied.

That's strange...
We checked his Documents when he was here last w/e.
They were in good order.
3538. LargoFl
Quoting gordydunnot:
This just in from the State Dept./NHC. Ernesto's Visa request denied.
LOL good one
What happened to trollnesto strengthening.. :*(
It's already in the w carribean and is passing 75W..
This storm is a DUD.
3540. Levi32
Quoting Skyepony:
What does this mean..from the comments on the last recon pass.

LARGE AREA OF L/V SFC WIND, LAST 10 MINS BEFORE FIX.

Not done with coffee yet..


L/V = Light/Variable
Quoting zawxdsk:
Last year, just about any time a storm got modestly organized it seemed to have major issues with vertical stacking - the llc disconnected from the mid level circulation. I think a lot of it had to do with moisture availability out in front of the storm. The storm is definitely ingesting dry air out ahead of it.

For Ernesto to reorganize significantly he would have to develop a new center of circulation. However he can continue as is. If he does, the first piece of land he hits will kill him.


Sinking air inhibits cyclogenesis. There's a lot of it about due to the drought. Here's a link to a Wunderground article on it by Dr. Masters in 2010.

Link
3542. hydrus
Quoting gordydunnot:
This just in from the State Dept./NHC. Ernesto's Visa request denied.
He will get in by way of medical emergency...He is severely injured..:)
Quoting unknowncomic:
No matter how strong he is steering says mexico/campeche bound.

yeah maybe 0300UTC this morning now it more or less yucatan/channel
3544. LargoFl
funny thing,most of the sites ive seen this morning with forecasts posted, they all have ernesto on the other side of the yucatan as a cat 1 hurricane next week
3545. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
He will get in by way of medical emergency...He is severely injured..:)

HAHAHAHAHAH
Quoting Skyepony:
What does this mean..from the comments on the last recon pass.

LARGE AREA OF L/V SFC WIND, LAST 10 MINS BEFORE FIX.

Not done with coffee yet..


I believe they are saying 'light & variable' winds which indicates a really disorganized inner core.

Good morning to everyone BTW :)
Quoting gordydunnot:
This just in from the State Dept./NHC. Ernesto's Visa request denied.


Without at least a Kelvin wave he's not making it to the states anyway..

Quoting 900MB:
Is it too late to retroactively take back my prediction yesterday that Ernie would be a Cat 2 by tonight?
,me too!,maybe we can split a roasted crow for dinner,Im confident watching wx over the last 10yrs that we can "make things happen" when it comes to wx modification,not that it has happened with,Irene,debbie or ernesto ;)
3550. LargoFl
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said at 5 a.m. Sunday that Ernesto was centered about 240 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ernesto had maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph and was moving westward at 22 mph.

The storm wasn't expected to strengthen much during the day. But it was forecast to gradually begin gaining power Monday in the warm Caribbean waters and possibly reach hurricane strength by Monday evening.

Ernesto was following a course predicted to take it south of the Cayman Islands on Monday and over the beach resorts of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday.

With forecasters predicting possible rains of up to three to six inches in Jamaica, islanders stood in long lines at grocery stores Saturday in the island's capital of Kingston to buy bottled water, bread and canned goods.

"We're going to have heavy rains, so I'm stocking up," said Marco Brown, a Kingston resident in his late 50s.

The Jamaican government ordered fishermen on outlying cays to evacuate and move to the main island.

The hurricane center said Jamaica should brace for tropical storm conditions beginning Sunday afternoon. Occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms also were possible over the Dominican Republic and Haiti, it said.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


looks like it that swirl although still there doesnt look as good on the last 2 frames of the vis as it did a while ago


Convection is trying to get going on the NE edge of that swirl. Low cloud is probably obscuring it some. It will soon hit 77W and looks to be running on a 275 degree heading. If so it will skirt the Honduras coast.
3552. pottery
Quoting yonzabam:


Sinking air inhibits cyclogenesis. There's a lot of it about due to the drought. Here's a link to a Wunderground article on it by Dr. Masters in 2010.

Link

Good point.
Again, not a 'normal' pattern.
Quoting atmosweather:


I believe they are saying 'light & variable' winds which indicates a really disorganized inner core.

Good morning to everyone BTW :)


Thanks Atmos..I think your right.

Convection building nicely in Ernesto
This is where that swirl is

15.333N 76.817W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,559 meters
(~ 5,115 feet) 1006.1 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg)
3557. LargoFl
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

VALID 12Z THU AUG 09 2012 - 12Z SUN AUG 12 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD...

LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ERNESTO IS STRUGGLING TO
ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES AT A RAPID CLIP TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT SLOWS
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS ERNESTO WAVERING NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE
STRENGTH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE
PRESSURE MAPS BEYOND THEN MAINTAIN THAT IDEA UNTIL ITS FINAL
LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAD NARROWED SINCE FRIDAY...SHOWING A LANDFALL
ACROSS MEXICO NORTH OF VERA CRUZ STATE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
IS NEAR AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE...STEER ERNESTO
FARTHER NORTH. UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE
IF ERNESTO BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MID LEVEL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS/TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE U.S.
THEREFORE... PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH TEXAS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
Quoting kmanislander:
This is where that swirl is

15.333N 76.817W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,559 meters
(~ 5,115 feet) 1006.1 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg)
center farther north and west?
If anyone is interested in talking about the tropics... Join us in Storm Chat right here. Just sign-in with your WU handle.
Quoting floridaboy14:
center farther north and west?


No, this is where I have been saying all morning it is.
5August06amGMT's 15.0n73.9w was re-evaluated&altered
5August12pmGMT's 14.9n73.9w-14.8n76.1w are now the most recent positions
(Vectors and straightline projections have been corrected^ from the previous mapping)
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormErnesto for 5August12pmGMT:
MinimumPressure stayed at 1008millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
Its vector changed from 264.9*West@24.6mph(39.6km/h) to 267.6*West@24.5mph(39.5km/h)

CTM-Chetumal :: CUK-CayeCaulker :: MDB-Dangriga :: PUZ-PuertoCabezas :: PVA-Providencia

The Easternmost unlabeled dot marks Ernesto's position on its 30th hour as a TropicalStorm
The Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Ernesto's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Ernesto's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
4August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over GalesPoint (MDB-dumbbell)
4August6pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over ElPlacer,QuintanaRoo (CTM-dumbbell)
5August12amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over CayeCaulker (CUK)
5August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over Laguna de Karata (SSW-heading PUZ-dumbbell)
5August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading for passage over MiskitoCay in ~16hours from now (when this comment was posted)

^ Yes, the 5August12pmGMT straightline projection's endpoint coincided with the previous mapping's 5August6amGMT endpoint.
For the corrected straightline projection along with the newest one as well as other relevant information, copy&paste eyw, ctm-18.883n87.642w, cuk-17.75n88.024w, mdb-17.23n88.304w, puz-14.32n82.6w, pva-13.323n81.391w-13.213n81.384w, stx, 13.8n64.8w-13.9n66.4w, 13.9n66.4w-14.2n67.9w, 14.2n67.9w-14.6n69.3w, 14.6n69.3w-15.1n71.7w,15.1n71.7w-14.9n73.9w, 15.1n71.7w-13.77n83.463w, 14.9n73.9w-14.8n76.1w, 14.9n73.9w-14.37n82.74w into the GreatCircleMapper for the 2 straightline projections and other information
The previous mapping for comparison.
so far 1007mb that lower that the 1009 fix

Quoting lightning75:
Ernie sure looks rather shreaded in RB



to me it gives a clearer picture than this image below

you see that pop up od convection right at 15.8N 75.9W it on the NE side of the LLCOC looking like ernesto is starting to revive

also starting to hit the high TCHP
Quoting Levi32:


L/V = Light/Variable
more euro ensembles agree with your track. why has ernesto naked center moved farther north? last time i checked it was around 15.0N and now is almost at 15.5N. is it the weakining of the bermuda high and do you expect ernesto to get going later tonight?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so far 1007mb that lower that the 1009 fix


you see that pop up od convection right at 15.8N 75.9W it on the NE side of the LLCOC looking like ernesto is starting to revive

also starting to hit the high TCHP


1006.1 mbs just found near 15.5 and 77
Ernesto (what's left of him) will be entering a more favorable environment at about 80W. I think 75W is still too soon. Still think this is a threat in the gulf for deep south texas if it can get going and gain a little more latitude (center reforms etc), so I would not let my guard down if you live from Corpus southward. No chance that this moves any further north as it is much weaker and will not have as much time to ramp up and feel the weakness in the trough.
Quoting LargoFl:
I am wondering..in the dustbowl states..since the 1930's..what have these states done to improve their water situation?..have they dug massive lakes to hold the water when it does come in the good rain years?, have they planted millions of tree's to hold the soil and water IN the ground?..or did they build massive concrete jungles, paving over alot of land....not a flame here..just a question


Someone might have already answered, but one of the big problems with the drought during the 30's was the agriculture. Hence, Dust Bowl - the soil wasn't taken care of and so it got blown away. Today's agricultural techniques have prevented that kind of occurrence. The drought remains, a natural effect, but the soil also remains.
3569. ncstorm
the 06z Nogaps..look where it has florence..and future Gordon near Africa

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so far 1007mb that lower that the 1009 fix


you see that pop up od convection right at 15.8N 75.9W it on the NE side of the LLCOC looking like ernesto is starting to revive

also starting to hit the high TCHP


roduct: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 13:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 08

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 13:54Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.3N 76.8W
Location: 186 miles (300 km) to the S (180°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,530 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 40° at 22 knots (From the NE at ~ 25.3 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 18°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,482 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 40° at 25 knots (From the NE at ~ 28.7 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 23 knots (~ 26.5mph)
Extrapolated Sea Level Pressure: 1006 mb
Modern meteorology is not based on models never was, these are complementary tools.
Meteorologists in the world and especially in NHC work based on the information received, calculating and thinking (not looking at models internet gfs).
Each year is the same, with a bunch of guys pretending to be experts on anything thinking the worst.
Nature is hard to understand we are still learning....

I hope this season does not have a single major hurricane.
3573. hydrus
You can see what happened here..Sorta
A downgrade may be in the works for the 11 AM update
3575. Patrap
Ernie's underwear is showing this am.





Naked swirl heading due west to Central America.

This storm is history.

Link
3577. 900MB
Quoting hydrus:
I expected it to eaken, but not this much. Chalk one up for Levi32, he said on his blog that this could happen.

Props and a steak for Levi, crow for me!
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


roduct: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 13:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 08

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 13:54Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.3N 76.8W
Location: 186 miles (300 km) to the S (180°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,530 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 40° at 22 knots (From the NE at ~ 25.3 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 18°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,482 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 40° at 25 knots (From the NE at ~ 28.7 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 23 knots (~ 26.5mph)
Extrapolated Sea Level Pressure: 1006 mb
Will we have any other TS other than Ernesto and Florence?
3579. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:
This is where that swirl is

15.333N 76.817W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,559 meters
(~ 5,115 feet) 1006.1 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg)


Models initialized south of 15N at 12z so that's significant in determining interaction with the Honduras/Nicaragua coastline.

Ernesto is moving NW or WNW cause I tracked it with my eyes and
Quoting kmanislander:
This is where that swirl is

15.333N 76.817W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,559 meters
(~ 5,115 feet) 1006.1 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg)
says so so that is confirmed
3581. LargoFl
Quoting sandbarhappy:


Someone might have already answered, but one of the big problems with the drought during the 30's was the agriculture. Hence, Dust Bowl - the soil wasn't taken care of and so it got blown away. Today's agricultural techniques have prevented that kind of occurrence. The drought remains, a natural effect, but the soil also remains.
..ok ty for the reply
Quoting Skyepony:


Thanks Atmos..I think your right.

[groan] can't believe I didn't get that.... really need the coffee... lol
3583. Patrap

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

I have to say the models have been right all along about Ernesto falling apart/ not gaining strength
3585. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

VALID 12Z THU AUG 09 2012 - 12Z SUN AUG 12 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD...

LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ERNESTO IS STRUGGLING TO
ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES AT A RAPID CLIP TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT SLOWS
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS ERNESTO WAVERING NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE
STRENGTH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE
PRESSURE MAPS BEYOND THEN MAINTAIN THAT IDEA UNTIL ITS FINAL
LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAD NARROWED SINCE FRIDAY...SHOWING A LANDFALL
ACROSS MEXICO NORTH OF VERA CRUZ STATE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
IS NEAR AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE...STEER ERNESTO
FARTHER NORTH. UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE
IF ERNESTO BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MID LEVEL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS/TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE U.S.
THEREFORE... PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH TEXAS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


South Texas may just get their storm after all
Quoting Levi32:


Models initialized south of 15N at 12z so that's significant in determining interaction with the Honduras/Nicaragua coastline.


Sir Levi... care to join us here. Storm Chat
3587. LargoFl
3588. Patrap
Curiosity Rover on Track for Monday Landing


Curiosity, the car-size, one-ton rover is bound for arrival on Mars at 1:31 a.m., EDT on Monday, Aug. 6.

The landing will mark the beginning of a two-year prime mission to investigate one of the most intriguing places on Mars.
I would find it friggin funny as crap if Ernesto forms an eye and HH finds it weaker... :|
Quoting Levi32:


Models initialized south of 15N at 12z so that's significant in determing interaction with the Honduras/Nicaragua coastline.



Are you saying that it has been lifting to the WNW which is what the current versus initial position would suggest ?. The initial point for the model runs may have been too far to the South as the LLC has been running pretty much on a 275 degree heading based on visible imagery
3591. CJ5
This morning we are back to a split decision on E, 3 going west and 3 models looking for a north turn.

It seems the models on Florence have changed as well, more potential for a concern for the US now.

3592. Patrap
Ernesto is on Life support at best currently..

Quoting BahaHurican:
[groan] can't believe I didn't get that.... really need the coffee... lol
Your forgiven. You always post great info for us..
we may not even have Ernesto by days end
3595. hydrus
Quoting ncstorm:
the 06z Nogaps..look where it has florence..and future Gordon near Africa

It is my belief that when the MJO is back, tropics will be very active. Ernest and Florence moistening clearing dust, priming things for the next series of T-waves.
3596. Patrap
Anytime I see "LV" I'm thinking Las Vegas, baby.
Quoting Patrap:

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts



so now its gonna hit nicaragua and the dynamicals then take it to the yucatan and TX...thats a lot of land to be next to/over
3598. zawxdsk
Quoting Patrap:
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop


Just watching the front quadrants in the rgb, you can see where the convection should be and that the dry air is just eating it. Still looks like it is going to be dry out ahead of Ernesto all day.
3599. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:


Are you saying that it has been lifting to the WNW which is what the current versus initial position would suggest ?. The initial point for the model runs may have been to far too the South as the LLC has been running pretty much on a 275 degree heading based on visible imagery


Current motion looks like the 275 degree you mention. However it got there, it is farther north of the model initialization though, and given how close of a pass to Honduras it is now expected to make, that is significant for land interaction before the Yucatan.
3600. 900MB
Quoting stillwaiting:
,me too!,maybe we can split a roasted crow for dinner,Im confident watching wx over the last 10yrs that we can "make things happen" when it comes to wx modification,not that it has happened with,Irene,debbie or ernesto ;)


Yep, at least I have a number of people to share the crow with. In retrospect, I think I was in denial about the lack of TCHP and did not consider the degree to which the speed was a detriment. I guess I got carried away by the size, convection, and sat presentation.
3601. Patrap
3602. CJ5
Quoting Patrap:
Curiosity Rover on Track for Monday Landing


Curiosity, the car-size, one-ton rover is bound for arrival on Mars at 1:31 a.m., EDT on Monday, Aug. 6.

The landing will mark the beginning of a two-year prime mission to investigate one of the most intriguing places on Mars.


I thought it was going today. Do you have a link for update and or real time info? It is certainly going to be a nail biter.
3603. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
Curiosity Rover on Track for Monday Landing


Curiosity, the car-size, one-ton rover is bound for arrival on Mars at 1:31 a.m., EDT on Monday, Aug. 6.

The landing will mark the beginning of a two-year prime mission to investigate one of the most intriguing places on Mars.
..oh yes monday is the day..they are really concerned about lowering it to the surface, will it arrive upright and intact..amazing if it does come down ok and can cruise around the surface of that martian crater..I really want to see the pics it sends back
is the swirl out west of the main clouds in ernesto the main swirl or is there another one under the clouds?
Seems almost like there might be..
Quoting Levi32:


Current motion looks like the 275 degree you mention. However it got there, it is farther north of the model initialization though, and given how close of a pass to Honduras it is now expected to make, that is significant for land interaction before the Yucatan.


Yes, agreed on that. Watching for a potential downgrade at 11
Quoting BahaHurican:
[groan] can't believe I didn't get that.... really need the coffee... lol


Whoa there horsey. Not sure what you are saying.

Yes, you sure do need some coffee. As do I.
Good Morning all. How is Ernesto doing?
3609. Patrap
Everything for tonight's entry and Mars Landing is here.

www.nasa.gov
3610. ncstorm
one 1006mb and one 1007mb about to exit off Africa..
click to enlarge..

Back in a while
3612. Patrap
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop

click image for Loop dee Loop,ZOOM is active

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
is the swirl out west of the main clouds in ernesto the main swirl or is there another one under the clouds?
Seems almost like there might be..


Yep that llc racing westward appears to be what is left of ernesto. Just put together another view useing rammb products.

VIEW HERE
Quoting Patrap:
Everything for tonight's entry and Mars Landing is here.

www.nasa.gov


Just hope they have not mixed up their Metric and Imperial measurement protocols again
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes, agreed on that. Watching for a potential downgrade at 11

I sincerely doubt they downgrade it
3616. MahFL
Quoting CJ5:


I thought it was going today. Do you have a link for update and or real time info? It is certainly going to be a nail biter.


Time zones in the USA, in PDT it will be Sunday, but in EDT it will be Monday am. The landing signal is due 1:31 am EDT Monday 6 Aug.
3617. Patrap
Quoting SSideBrac:


Just hope they have not mixed up their Metric and Imperial measurement protocols again


well, that was 2000, or 12 years ago.


We've landed 2 Rover's successfully in 2003.

One is still Working as well.

But tonight's entry is a very different entry and landing, as this is a SUV sized Rover almost.


Good morning bloggers! I see that Ernesto is still struggling this a.m.

I think it is possible he will die with any land interaction....and seems like the dry air is still in place.

Although, any chance when he hits land (yucatan) that his center could reform and bring him back to life?
Very likely Ernesto will be a 40 mph TS this is even conservative since there are watches up for honduras , i also expect the TS warning for jamaica to be lifted .
3620. 900MB
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Morning all. How is Ernesto doing?


Who?
i think ERNESTO is a open wave or vary close too it
Quoting Pocamocca:


Whoa there horsey. Not sure what you are saying.

Yes, you sure do need some coffee. As do I.
lol... sure wish I'd never brought that darned horse into the conversation... lol... looks like it's going to end up being a blog code wd....

The l/v thing is a sure sign of coffee deprivation... local wx mets put that in forecasts, oh, 2-3 times a week.... lol

[goes 2 put on some Gloria Jeans]
great soo every single model for ernesto is total crap for the fact that they initialized so far S at 14.8N 76.1W and it at 15.2N 76.8W by sattelite
Hello everyone. I've been just lurking and reading blogs for a few years now and I thought maybe I would jump in. Just a little mention, I am currently interning at the National Hurricane Center, and I would love to contribute to this blog in any way possible.
Quoting Patrap:
Everything for tonight's entry and Mars Landing is here.

www.nasa.gov


Can't wait to see this. It will most certainly gather some amazing pictures!
3626. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
Ernesto is on Life support at best currently..

What a difference a day makes. I am still thinking that this will strengthen significantly,jmo. The HWRF and GFDL have done a decent job on quite a few runs. Next trough digs deeper according to the latest GFS, could effect Florence.
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
Hello everyone. I've been just lurking and reading blogs for a few years now and I thought maybe I would jump in. Just a little mention, I am currently interning at the National Hurricane Center, and I would love to contribute to this blog in any way possible.


Welcome! So what are your thoughts on Ernesto?
3628. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:


well, that was 2000, or 12 years ago.


We've landed 2 Rover's successfully in 2003.

One is still Working as well.

But tonight's entry is a very different entry and landing, as this is a SUV sized Rover almost.


somehow i remember reading the nasa article on mondays landing..its going to be different this time and they are trying something new..they are going to land the rover by lowering it down on ropes somehow...they were and are hoping it lands upright
3629. jpsb
Quoting gordydunnot:
This just in from the State Dept./NHC. Ernesto's Visa request denied.
Lol, like that means anything with our completely unprotected and wide open borders. Funny comment thou, to bad no one pays any attention to our immigration laws.
Quoting hydrus:
What a difference a day makes. I am still thinking that this will strengthen significantly,jmo. The HWRF and GFDL have done a decent job on quite a few runs. Next trough digs deeper according to the latest GFS, could effect Florence.



no it wont ERNESTO is done mode runs can say what they want but it dos not mean it is going too plan out that way
Quoting hydrus:
What a difference a day makes. I am still thinking that this will strengthen significantly,jmo. The HWRF and GFDL have done a decent job on quite a few runs. Next trough digs deeper according to the latest GFS, could effect Florence.


you would need a ridge, not a trough to let florence come to the US, its safe to say its staying at sea.

I hope we get some persistent troughs like that this winter though....then maybe we can get more snow than last year...
indications are that florence will also be significantly weaker in the 11am
3633. hydrus
Quoting SSideBrac:


Just hope they have not mixed up their Metric and Imperial measurement protocols again
Lol
It's them tearwable tearwable twadewinds again!! Tweating Ernesto unkindly!
3635. LargoFl
................there is going to be some serious flooding in northeastern florida, in much the same area that got flooded with Debby's rains if this tropical low doesnt move out of there today, non stop rain all this time gee
3636. yoboi
looks like ernesto has a hangover what happend??
Levi(or others), could i get a link to your blog please. Personally i like the way this is looking. Just a rainmaker, we sure could use that here in STX (Corpus), if it will get this far north.....
3638. Patrap
Quoting yoboi:
looks like ernesto has a hangover what happend??


The NHC Forecast panned out.
Wheres the MJO when you really need it?
3640. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you would need a ridge, not a trough to let florence come to the US, its safe to say its staying at sea.

I hope we get some persistent troughs like that this winter though....then maybe we can get more snow than last year...
I was implying that the trough may take any tropical storms or hurricanes away from the U.S. As long as the are no homegrown surprises.
3641. Patrap
Quoting want2lrn:
Levi(or others), could i get a link to your blog please. Personally i like the way this is looking. Just a rainmaker, we sure could use that here in STX (Corpus), if it will get this far north.....


Just use the Blog Directory by clicking BLOGS in the Menu Bar.


We have Hundreds of them.

Or just click Levi's handle and be taken there.
Florence remains a 60mph TS
WOW BIG rain for the SE US
3644. LargoFl
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

FLC031-089-109-051545-
/O.CON.KJAX.FA.W.0031.000000T0000Z-120805T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ST. JOHNS FL-DUVAL FL-NASSAU FL-
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT FOR URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN EASTERN NASSAU...EASTERN DUVAL AND
NORTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES...

MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN JACKSONVILLE
BEACH...ALONG 3RD STREET FROM 6TH AVENUE NORTH TO 14TH AVENUE
NORTH...AND ALONG SOUTH BEACH PARKWAY. WATER IS BEGINNING TO
ENTER A BUILDING NEAR 3RD STREET AND 3RD AVENUE NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FLOOD MANY CREEKS, STREAMS, STORM RETENTION PONDS
AND LOW LYING AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS HIGHWAYS, STREETS,
ROADS, UNDERPASSES AND ACCESS TO HOUSING MAY BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS
WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. ROAD WASHOUTS MAY BE COVERED BY
WATER. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR ANY UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

...FLORENCE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...



#3604 Get ready to pass it to me Pat if this goes near Vera Cruz Mexico...lol
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Florence now a 50mph TS


nop Florence is still 60mph
CIMSS is down; no current shear maps.
3649. Guysgal
Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 7 PM CDT this
evening...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a heat
advisory... which is in effect from noon today to 7 PM CDT this
evening.

* Heat index readings... 105 to 107 degrees.

* Timing... between noon and 7 PM CDT. The advisory may be able to
be canceled early in some locations as thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of a cold front approaching from the
northwest bringing relief from the heat.

* Impacts... heat related illness such as heat exhaustion or heat
stroke are a real threat if the proper protections are not
taken. Dehydration can occur quickly.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time
outside. When possible... reschedule strenuous activities to early
morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting
clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. Check up on
relatives and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work... the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency... call 9 1 1.
TS Watch has been issued for Grand Cayman
That not good 6Z GFS
3652. hydrus
For those wondering what "might " happen to Ernesto, this is worth a look...Link
3653. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Florence

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts




Quoting hurrtracker1994:
Hello everyone. I've been just lurking and reading blogs for a few years now and I thought maybe I would jump in. Just a little mention, I am currently interning at the National Hurricane Center, and I would love to contribute to this blog in any way possible.


Welcome! Feel free to join the fray!
3655. MahFL
Quoting LargoFl:
somehow i remember reading the nasa article on mondays landing..its going to be different this time and they are trying something new..they are going to land the rover by lowering it down on ropes somehow...they were and are hoping it lands upright


They are actually 3 quite thin nylon cords, not really ropes. Nylon is very strong.
3656. LargoFl
JACKSONVILLE, Fla--I'm meteorologist Mike Prangley. Lowland flooding and ponding of water will continue especially out at the beaches where some areas have already had 2-4" of rain. Be very careful with numerous accidents reported. This afternoon we will see the rain become more scattered with comfortable highs for this time of year in the lower to middle 80s.

It will not be a great beach or boating day. Wind gusts of 20-30 kts. over the open water with seas building from 3-6 ft. Surfers will have choppy 2-4 footers.
3657. Patrap
Quoting Seflhurricane:
indications are that florence will also be significantly weaker in the 11am


nope...still 60 mph
works for me

3660. hydrus
The CRAS model has the upper low or trough in the gulf lifting the weakened storm NNW into the gulf..Possible, but not likely.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Welcome! So what are your thoughts on Ernesto?


It has been a tricky storm to forecast, but then again they all are. I believe that everything has been status quo thus far, and significant strengthening is not extremely likely today but as it gets its act together we should start to see some slow and steady strengthening.
3662. LargoFl
...........................folks its getting bad around Jacksonville with the flooding
3663. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Are next big TS coming off of Africa at 138HR
may go to the U.S


Quoting Patrap:


Just use the Blog Directory by clicking BLOGS in the Menu Bar.


We have Hundreds of them.

Or just click Levi's handle and be taken there.


Thank you. On a side note, i "lurk" on this blog every cane season as i feel many of you give great insight to what is/isn't going to happen with these storms. I just have to decipher whose opinions need to be listened to and whose needs to be dismissed as a "caster" of some sort. Thank you for the lessons.....
3666. yoboi
what are the odds renesto make it to the gom???
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Welcome! Feel free to join the fray!


Thanks for the warm welcome!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
That not good 6Z GFS


its an ensemble.....

Wait do we have an NHC intern on here?
3669. jpsb
Quoting hydrus:
The CRAS model has the upper low or trough in the gulf lifting the weakened storm NNW into the gulf..Possible, but not likely.
I am sticking with gfs, which has been very very good at track and strength of Enersto.
3670. LargoFl
..jacksonville fl
I think ernesto won't be downgraded but weakened to a 40 or 45 mph storm

3672. Patrap
yes but all the ensemble Have it
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


its an ensemble.....

Wait do we have an NHC intern on here?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Are next big TS coming off of Africa at 138HR
may go to the U.S





poor new york and FL
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


Thanks for the warm welcome!


So you are the intern?
What is it like interning there?
Ernesto still a 50 MPH TS. Seems generous.
HAARP working at it's best. Diminishing both storms .
3678. Patrap
Ol 91L's center of circ can be seen this morning

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

...POORLY-ORGANIZED ERNESTO MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 77.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
3680. SLU
Rated R. Parental guidance is advised.

Quoting LargoFl:
..jacksonville fl

I've seen that photo before during Debby.
3682. LargoFl
Significant flooding in Jacksonville Beach, Fl. along South Beach Parkway. Water entering buildings.
FWIW--and more an indication of how weak this year's storms have been than anything else--Ernesto is up to #2 on the 2012 Atlantic ACE list:

2012

Unless it falls apart over the next twelve hours, Ernesto will be in first place before midnight.

1-CHRIS-2.7675
2-ERNESTO-2.5300
3-DEBBY-2.4450
4-BERYL-2.1600
5-ALBERTO-1.3750
6-FLORENCE-1.1125

3684. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:

I've seen that photo before during Debby.
..same area
Quoting kmanislander:
Ernesto still a 50 MPH TS. Seems generous.



Looks more like a piece of remnant trash than a 50mph storm right now.


Now ironic, it holds together and even strengthened in the E. Caribbean, only to choke after entering the western Caribbean.
Kman and Patrap, do y'all have a blog?
3687. yoboi
Quoting lottotexas:
HAARP working at it's best. Diminishing both storms .





????????
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


So you are the intern?
What is it like interning there?


It is a lot of fun! It is a spectacular experience to shadow and work along side of some of the best forecasters in the world. They have a wealth of knowledge.
Quoting RTSplayer:



Looks more like a piece of remnant trash than a 50mph storm right now.


Now ironic, it holds together and even strengthened in the E. Caribbean, only to choke after entering the western Caribbean.


There are paradoxes even in weather LOL
Quoting Patrap:
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop

click image for Loop dee Loop,ZOOM is active




G'morning, weathergeeks. Ernie looks puny, but it's at last over more open water and further away from land with the wave axis now tilted nw/se and the slight movement wsw. Evidenced by loss of umbilical moisture to the monsoonal trough and hence the battle with dry air which is, btw, still diminishing.

Ernie will now have a chance to perform, creating moisture independently. He has to establish the true tropical engine at all the levels, become vertical to reproduce that cycling moisture. I'm still concerned about the forward speed, but that should be slowing and helpful.

It's make or break time at 75w. Yesterday, I thought he'd gain a bump of latitude before 75w, just didn't happen. Should be an interesting 24 hours.

Have a nice day, folks! :)
3691. Gearsts
COC taking a dive south
3692. Patrap
Quoting want2lrn:
Kman and Patrap, do y'all have a blog?


Feel free to click on my handle to go to my current entry.
Quoting want2lrn:
Kman and Patrap, do y'all have a blog?


I do not. Just don't have the time it takes to put together and maintain a good one so would rather not have one at all than do it poorly.
3638. Patrap 2:38 PM GMT on August 05, 2012 +2

Quoting yoboi:
looks like ernesto has a hangover what happend??

The NHC Forecast panned out.

Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 358 Comments: 108517



yep,its not a bad deal its a good deal.
3695. Msdrown
Newby here again. The Weather Channel just said because that low in BOC is moving off to the west Ernesto is more then likely not going to affect the US. My question is the dry air pocket to the west of Ernesto seems to be getting sandwitched into the YUC. Will it be pushed over the YUC or will it dissappear all together??It seems to me that if it goes over the YUC it will suck up the humidity from the jungle which could moisten the air contributing to Ernesto. Also what about the trough to the north that you all were talking could pick the storm up and move it into the northern GOM?
Catch up with you all later.
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW--and more an indication of how weak this year's storms have been than anything else--Ernesto is up to #2 on the 2012 Atlantic ACE list:

2012

Unless it falls apart over the next twelve hours, Ernesto will be in first place before midnight.

1-CHRIS-2.7675
2-ERNESTO-2.5300
3-DEBBY-2.4450
4-BERYL-2.1600
5-ALBERTO-1.3750
6-FLORENCE-1.1125



Still early in season. This is all pretty normal. Must wait until late August - early Sept
3698. LargoFl
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT FOR URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN EASTERN NASSAU...EASTERN DUVAL AND
NORTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES...

MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN JACKSONVILLE
BEACH...ALONG 3RD STREET FROM 6TH AVENUE NORTH TO 14TH AVENUE
NORTH...AND ALONG SOUTH BEACH PARKWAY. WATER IS BEGINNING TO
ENTER A BUILDING NEAR 3RD STREET AND 3RD AVENUE NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FLOOD MANY CREEKS, STREAMS, STORM RETENTION PONDS
AND LOW LYING AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS HIGHWAYS, STREETS,
ROADS, UNDERPASSES AND ACCESS TO HOUSING MAY BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS
WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. ROAD WASHOUTS MAY BE COVERED BY
WATER. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR ANY UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
3699. Drakoen
Looks like I may (probably) will end up being wrong about Ernesto. There are probably physical and dynamical reasons for Ernesto's current disheveled appearance that are not well understood. Even though there is dry air present, a tropical cyclone under this much TCHP should not be struggling this much.
Quoting Gearsts:
COC taking a dive south

No it isnt, the 1009 MB isnt the real COC if you notice its the observation thats farther north which has a 1006 MB
I don't know if Ernesto does to you, but don't the inner workings of Tropical Storm Ernesto and Tropical Storm Emily look somewhat familiar?



Both have their COCses stuck out to the west (the only difference is that Emily's COC is under convection)and then you can see the outflow clouds to the south clearly, and then the east of the storms is just bulky convection and storms.
Quoting Tazmanian:
works for me



It stopped at 0300 UTC.
03:00:00 Sunday August 5, 2012 in UTC converts to
22:00:00 Saturday August 4, 2012 in EST
GFS at 180HR BIG TS and Nogaps and what is going on with Tropical Storm FLORENCE

3704. yoboi
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
3638. Patrap 2:38 PM GMT on August 05, 2012 +2

Quoting yoboi:
looks like ernesto has a hangover what happend??

The NHC Forecast panned out.

Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 358 Comments: 108517



yep,its not a bad deal its a good deal.




i was shocked when i looked at it this morn last i looked it was going strong and bammmm
Quoting Gearsts:
COC taking a dive south

yeah after it took a jump NW now its moving back SW if you average it out its moving W
3706. LargoFl
Quoting yoboi:





????????
try here and google HAARPLink

SOME PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS COULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND IM STARTING TO BELIEVE THEM....
Ironically enough, the ECMWF is more aggressive than it has ever been with Ernesto, bringing it down to 993mb before landfall. It's probably stronger than portrayed, as the system is very small in size.


We are also probably going to have to watch out for another Cape Verde system. The GFS is being consistent that we could have Gordon by the end of the week.


What on earth happened to Ernesto? Did he just pull an Emily?
3711. Patrap
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like I may (probably) will end up being wrong about Ernesto. There are probably physical and dynamical reasons for Ernesto's current disheveled appearance that are not well understood. Even though there is dry air present, a tropical cyclone under this much TCHP should be struggling this much.


Seems he lost a great deal of Mojo to mees'
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like I may (probably) will end up being wrong about Ernesto. There are probably physical and dynamical reasons for Ernesto's current disheveled appearance that are not well understood. Even though there is dry air present, a tropical cyclone under this much TCHP should be struggling this much.



Drakoen, sometimes the baby is simply stillborn - just doesn't make it. We've seen that happen a few times. No apparent reason for the demise - just happens. Ernesto has really struggled all along, his troubles masked by the moisture piled up in the wave axis until now. However, I'm not counting him out yet - that TCHP will likely get him going again. Just needs to slow forward speed to really help.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Are next big TS coming off of Africa at 138HR
may go to the U.S




You mean Gordon... I don't want that storm near NYC.... bad boy...
Quoting WxGeekVA:


What on earth happened to Ernesto? Did he just pull an Emily?


that storm is over!
3715. Patrap
HAARP Bologna is best discussed over at GLP eyes doos believe.

: )
Quoting yoboi:




i was shocked when i looked at it this morn last i looked it was going strong and bammmm


after the 72 w mark
its circulation suffered decoupling
and its still suffering
its like the upper mid and low level circulation
took off in three different directions
3717. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like I may (probably) will end up being wrong about Ernesto. There are probably physical and dynamical reasons for Ernesto's current disheveled appearance that are not well understood. Even though there is dry air present, a tropical cyclone under this much TCHP should be struggling this much.


Dunno...I think we've seen many tropical disturbances do this in the central-eastern Caribbean during the peak of the hurricane season. I still don't know why this is being described as "unexplainable." Climatology alone can explain this.
It is still not over!!!
Quoting lottotexas:
try here and google HAARPLink
Baseless paranoid musings by a doddering old conspiracy theorist; Chossudovsky is one of the nuttiest "Beware the New World Order around every corner!" types out there. Cuckoo...cuckoo...cuckoo... ;-)
Quoting Chicklit:


It stopped at 0300 UTC.
03:00:00 Sunday August 5, 2012 in UTC converts to
22:00:00 Saturday August 4, 2012 in EST



oh oops sorry about that then
Quoting WxGeekVA:


What on earth happened to Ernesto? Did he just pull an Emily?

I am never gonna trust a "E" storm again..
HH confirmed the LLCOC is at 15.3N 76.8W and pressure droped to 1005mb which is lower than before ernesto looks to to be getting stronger
3723. hydrus
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 am CDT sun Aug 05 2012


Valid 051300z - 061200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from New York/PA southwestward into the middle
south...


...
Upper short wave trough moving eastward over the upper Great Lakes is
forecast to lift northeastward across Quebec by tonight as a broad long wave
trough evolves from the upper MS valley/Great Lakes into New
England. The western part of the upper ridge extending from the Southern
Plains/four corner area nwwd into the Pacific northwest will weaken
slightly as a short wave trough lifts northward from central California toward the
Pacific northwest.


At the surface...a cold front from Lake Huron/lower Michigan southwestward across
the middle MS valley to the southern High Plains will progress
southeastward...reaching a line from the lower Great Lakes across southern
Indiana/central Arkansas/and west central Texas by this evening...and
continuing by late tonight to eastern New England and the Middle
Atlantic States southwestward across the middle south and southern OK/northern Texas region.




..NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley...
Several bands of thunderstorms are expected to move across the
region through this evening along/ahead of the advancing cold front
within a warm/moist and weakly capped environment. Strong storms
moving over parts of western/central Ohio this morning are likely to
spread eastward/northeastward through the day...with model guidance /including
high resolution convection-allowing models/ showing additional
development occurring northeastward along the Lee of lakes Erie and Ontario
by early afternoon.


Visible imagery shows extensive areas of clouds this morning which
are expected to inhibit diurnal heating and reduce the rate of
destabilization today. Some breaks/thinning of cloud
cover...especially from Eastern Lake Erie east-northeastward into New York...will promote
areas of greater heating. However...generally weak lapse rates on
12z regional soundings suggest instability will remain modest with
MLCAPE up to 1000 j/kg. Stronger southwesterly flow in the low-middle levels
along the southern edge of the upper short wave trough will enhance
vertical shear across this region and support organized line
segments and clusters of storms...with more intense convection
capable of producing damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.
The activity will spread eastward through the evening when gradual
weakening of the convection is expected to occur.


..lower Ohio Valley into the middle south...
Greater instability is expected to occur farther southwestward ahead of the
cold front/outflow boundaries where visible satellite imagery shows
fewer clouds from central Arkansas into parts of western/middle Tennessee where there
is potential for stronger diabatic heating to occur today. MLCAPE
is expected to reach 2000-3000 j/kg which will promote develop of
vigorous updrafts as cin is gradually weakened. Although winds
aloft/vertical shear will be relatively weak...a few strong/severe
multicell storms may develop especially this afternoon and evening.
Damaging microburst winds and occasional hail will be the primary
threats.

3724. Patrap
..CLEAR!!!


"Ja Booop",


..we have a pulse.




3725. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Dunno...I think we've seen many tropical disturbances do this in the central-eastern Caribbean during the peak of the hurricane season. I still don't know why this is being described as "unexplainable." The climatology alone supported this.


I have yet to see any papers that explain this, physically, dynamically, or climatologically.
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW--and more an indication of how weak this year's storms have been than anything else--Ernesto is up to #2 on the 2012 Atlantic ACE list:

2012

Unless it falls apart over the next twelve hours, Ernesto will be in first place before midnight.

1-CHRIS-2.7675
2-ERNESTO-2.5300
3-DEBBY-2.4450
4-BERYL-2.1600
5-ALBERTO-1.3750
6-FLORENCE-1.1125



I think saying the storms have been weak gives the wrong impression.

The 1st 4 storms of the season developed in locations where we knew they would not be around for long. Despite that Beryl, Chris and Debby all were impressive, given the short time that they existed. Beryl became very impressive just before landfall, Chris became a hurricane when the NHC said he would not and Debby caused big time flooding in parts of Florida. I think looking at ACE alone does not give the full story of the season.
Just got in.... Ernesto is almost gone... Big storm from Africa GFS 168 hrs...

After all the ones I remember saying that Ernesto would vanish was GFS and Jason...
3728. Patrap
Viz


Center of circulation exchange for Ernesto pretty much brought it down to what it is now. I don't think with the awkward structure that Ernesto will intensify too much in the NW Caribbean, given the bad organization and fast tradewinds. It has to actually get a good structure before intensifing okay. Satellite imagery baffled many the other day, Ernesto's core has been mostly so-so and not great the whole time.
3730. Gorty
I knew the dry air he was heading into was going to hurt him. I didnt want to say anything because I am generally wrong lol.
3731. Patrap
The Swirl Structure is very intact so Im wary of ever calling a Low dead in that area, moving West to Wnw thru time, esp looking at the Wind Models.





12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

3732. Joe21
Can anybody my question.
Is it possible that florence does what Andrew did weaken in the ATL and then blow back up and then be a threat to east coast like from FL to Carolinas.
Maybe Jason was right..
Is this the first time he's been right?
too me there really noting lift of Ernesto
1000mb Winds


925mb Winds


700mb Winds


600mb Winds


500mb Winds


300mb Winds


200mb Winds
DownCasters would be happy with Ernesto...

Wishcasters would be mad and depressed

Conspiracy-Casters would be studying the satellite animations to point which HAARP facility or weather modification program, from which country affected it...

Forecasters would keep on trusting and observing models...
Waiting for Isaac.....And by the looks of the models looks as if he'll be a beautiful cape verde system.Watch for those "I" storms..Ernesto another Mexican storm.Nothing for me to worry about.



The track is futher south...Mexico storm predicted and still a TS to become Hurricane
3739. Patrap
Remember, this is Tenacious "E"

Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think saying the storms have been weak gives the wrong impression.

The 1st 4 storms of the season developed in locations where we knew they would not be around for long. Despite that Beryl, Chris and Debby all were impressive, given the short time that they existed. Beryl became very impressive just before landfall, Chris became a hurricane when the NHC said he would not and Debby caused big time flooding in parts of Florida. I think looking at ACE alone does not give the full story of the season.
I was making no judgments on 2012, nor was I casting any aspersions on the storms to date. And I wasn't implying that there was nothing interesting or noteworthy about them. Of course ACE alone doesn't really say much. But it is nevertheless a metric that serves a useful purpose, and, so far at least, there's no denying that none of this year's storms have been ACE monsters.

(FWIW,l none of last year's storms had an ACE of over 5.0 until Irene surpassed that number on August 23, while 2010's Alex did that on June 30.)
Quoting Patrap:
Remember, this is Tenacious "E"


He does look like a big "E" in that image
3742. Bitmap7
Pledge your allegiances to the GFS.
Quoting lightning75:



The track is futher south...Mexico storm predicted and still a TS to become Hurricane



vary unlikey that Ernesto will be come a hurricane it may not even be a storm by days end
With the current GFS achieved trustable record, we could expect another storm in 135 hrs...






Anyhow, looks like a very complex met. panorama around Ernesto...
...Never going against the models again.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Waiting for Isaac.....And by the looks of the models looks as if he'll be a beautiful cape verde system.Watch for those "I" storms..Ernesto another Mexican storm.Nothing for me to worry about.

We still have to get to"G" and "H" first. And still watching what Ernesto and Flo will do also.
Don't think to far ahead.
3747. yqt1001
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...Never going against the models again.


The other option would be to not use your brain. :P
Quoting Tazmanian:



poor new york and FL


Not in that order, though.
This year:

GFS 3

Everybody else: 0


Think I'm gonna trust the GFS more the rest of the season.
Quoting AussieStorm:

We still have to get to"G" and "H" first. And still watching what Ernesto and Flo will do also.
Don't think to far ahead.
Mmmm yeah yeah.But I've been looking forward to Isaac now for a few months.
Quoting Patrap:
HAARP Bologna is best discussed over at GLP eyes doos believe.

: )
Just funning Leatherneck. S/F
Quoting Tazmanian:



vary unlikey that Ernesto will be come a hurricane it may not even be a storm by days end


Just sharing the recently published offical guidance...


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.0N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 15.0N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 15.4N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.9N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.5N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.0N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1200Z 20.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
3753. flsky
Quoting WxGeekVA:
This year:

GFS 3

Everybody else: 0


Think I'm gonna trust the GFS more the rest of the season.

I think I learned that lesson last year.
Quoting Patrap:
The Swirl Structure is very intact so Im wary of ever calling a Low dead in that area, moving West to Wnw thru time, esp looking at the Wind Models.





12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts



all of the models on this run is compleate crap all of them and that is because ATCF has the plot at 14.8N 76.1W and the COC is really at 15.3N 76.9W via HH and is at 15.4N 77.0W via vis and rgb sat
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Not in that order, though.



oh was i miss reading the mode runs?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Baseless paranoid musings by a doddering old conspiracy theorist; Chossudovsky is one of the nuttiest "Beware the New World Order around every corner!" types out there. Cuckoo...cuckoo...cuckoo... ;-)

Having wearily read some of that article, I find it hard to conceive of the amount of energy needed to achieve major weather manipulations. The orchestrators of these ides may not be fools but just to imagine that stroms can be accurately controlled seems ridiculous.
Knowing that a relatively small rudder steers a big ship and that maybe at source over Africa an attempt could be made to influence waves but there are just too many obstacles in the way for any attempts at storm control to be accurate.
Quoting Drakoen:


I have yet to see any papers that explain this, physically, dynamically, or climatologically.


How about the drought causing sinking air throughout the Caribbean, inhibiting cyclogenesis? Dr. Masters offered this explanation for storms that failed to strengthen, for no apparent eason, last season. He has mentioned the 'vertical instability' this year being below the average, and produced a graph to illustrate it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm yeah yeah.But I've been looking forward to Isaac now for a few months.

Oh come on...... lol

I'm going to bed. Got MRI and CT Bone spec scans in the morning so I need a good rest. Later all :-)
Feel good for Jamaica and others that were going to be impacted....

I think Ernesto has been studying with the Karate Kid. Wax on Wax off. And we now how that one ended. So it ain't over until it's over. I will say, I hope that long range model is total garbage. Florida will have a few million refugees one of these days, I am sad to say. There is always a small window most every season for at least one monster to be in the right spot at the right time. I think GW has upset the atmosphere so much that it's helped to prevent the calm upper atmosphere these storms need.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
yes but all the ensemble Have it


no not all ensembles have a landfall on US
Quoting WxGeekVA:
This year:

GFS 3

Everybody else: 0


Think I'm gonna trust the GFS more the rest of the season.

Not going against it anymore, no matter what it shows.

Whatever they did to the model, it's working.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Oh come on...... lol
Not to mention there's this thing called Onion news that was interested in Isaac.The clip is youtube.Just type in onion news and hurricane.
Figures Ernesto would pass near me at least is weak and will bring beneficial rains to me.looks like the Gfs and Euro well right all along.
Funny
look right there 15n77w i found him and he is smiling





lol
the 12z of the gfs have started
Keeper is that a ink blot test. Because I think I see it. Hopefully that's good right?
Looks like Gordon and Helene are going to be monsters.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


all of the models on this run is compleate crap all of them and that is because ATCF has the plot at 14.8N 76.1W and the COC is really at 15.3N 76.9W via HH and is at 15.4N 77.0W via vis and rgb sat


you have been saying they have been crap for days, so far they have been right on point
Ernesto is a good gut check for folks, including folks at NHC like Avila who was very candid yesterday, in terms of difficulties in terms of intensity and development issues for this particular storm. The models gave us the best clue; with that much divergence, they have suggested a coin toss either way. That big ULL in the Central Atlantic has been a big factor and he has never slowed down because of the strong ridge and steering currents. I cannot speak intelligently as to the other factors folks are discussing such as TCHP and the exact source of the problems for this storm.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no not all ensembles have a landfall on US


He discounts the others because they do not make landfall in the US, so he thinks they are not worth mentioning
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like Gordon and Helene are going to be monsters.

The run also shows Isaac :) later on..
Strange - according to NHC 1100 update Cayman has issued a TS Watch for Grand Cayman - cannot find any Cayman Govt release on that at all
Quoting washingtonian115:
The run also shows Isaac :) later on..
The train of cape verde storm has start.
3777. hydrus
There is a large rotation with Ernesto. It will make it through the remaining subsidence and dry air. Then it should pick on the warm water and subsidence will weaken enough for Ernesto to intensify rather quickly. This is the view of this blogger, and this post is used solely for that purpose.:)
What are the HH doing?

Quoting Bitmap7:
Pledge your allegiances to the GFS.


the euro is doing quite well too for now..
3780. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


I have yet to see any papers that explain this, physically, dynamically, or climatologically.


Mean trade winds accelerate from east to west in the central Caribbean, causing surface divergence and sinking. Tom posted a paper link yesterday detailing the Caribbean low-level jet. This has been discussed for countless years as a climatological inhibitor to tropical cyclones. Sometimes the trade winds are favorable to allow something to develop, but here they weren't. Ernesto is nothing special.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not going against it anymore, no matter what it shows.

Whatever they did to the model, it's working.


if it ain't broke....replace it with the FIM!!!!!
If no one disagrees with the models (GFS) anymore, then the blog would be dead. The differing interpretations of data and observations is what puts life and spark into the discussions. There are many knowledgeable people that post here and I would hate to see that sharing of information and debate diminished. Keep on agreeing to disagree even with the models.
WOW...The GFS wins another complex situation!!! The GFS sniffed those conditions out from the very start....even before recon data was put in. The upgrade has become a HUGE + for the NHC.
Hey Jr....you still calling for that west Fl. hit?
Hey guys, the GFS hasnt totally won yet, its not over, it and the euro are on track still....
Quoting lottotexas:
If no one disagrees with the models (GFS) anymore, then the blog would be dead. The differing interpretations of data and observations is what puts life and spark into the discussions. There are many knowledgeable people that post here and I would hate to see that sharing of information and debate diminished. Keep on agreeing to disagree even with the models.
Good point, and lets be honest the GFS wasn't perfect either, we still got a 60 mph Tropical Storm in the Eastern Caribbean while it was showing an open wave. These models aren't exact science and shouldn't be the only basis to make a forecast, human observation, some research, and experience should be more than enough, and even when you're wrong with a forecast that shouldn't put you down, you get right back up onto your feet and do it all over again.
Quoting allancalderini:
The train of cape verde storm has start.
Seems we'll be busy on the blog for a few weeks.Gonna need it after dead July.
Quoting lottotexas:
If no one disagrees with the models (GFS) anymore, then the blog would be dead. The differing interpretations of data and observations is what puts life and spark into the discussions. There are many knowledgeable people that post here and I would hate to see that sharing of information and debate diminished. Keep on agreeing to disagree even with the models.
Agreed.Their be no point in this blog then.Models aren't perfect.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not going against it anymore, no matter what it shows.

Whatever they did to the model, it's working.


I agree 100%. Move over Euro, you're nit the best model anymore!
The Carribean gauntlet wins again. One shouldn't ever bet against climatology! Monday begins the comeback.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Keeper is that a ink blot test. Because I think I see it. Hopefully that's good right?


made me do a double take
but ya its a good thing
a nice harmless smiling monster
hopefully
Quoting washingtonian115:
Seems we'll be busy on the blog for a few weeks.Gonna need it after dead July. Agreed.Their be no point in this blog then.Models aren't perfect.
Thank You, yet some on here rely on it wayyy too much, it's like they go to bed with it.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


all of the models on this run is compleate crap all of them and that is because ATCF has the plot at 14.8N 76.1W and the COC is really at 15.3N 76.9W via HH and is at 15.4N 77.0W via vis and rgb sat


I disagree. The models have done quite well with track and keeping Ernesto as a weak system.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like Gordon and Helene are going to be monsters.

When Will they Devolop?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like Gordon and Helene are going to be monsters.


Haha is that the latest run??? Cause by the looks of it iot is headed towards me..... and i know someone named Gordon... I tihnk im gonna tell him he better not do anything bad :p
The problem with ernesto was or is,becouse i think he has a shot before landfall . is the forward speed was and is the problem since he enter in the carribean the storm can't find the way to slow down with this speed can't get the act of cilcogenesis together ,the GFS, ECMWF and others reliable models predict this, with the COC relocate to the west more close the dry air i don't like the chance of ernesto

ernesto in his crossing the caribbean
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thank You, yet some on here rely on it wayyy too much, it's like they go to bed with it.
I like to look at the models for possible solutions not a exact forecast.
The ECMWF has done pretty well also. I always take a blend of the GFS and ECMWF myself. They are the best globals hands down. The rest are junk now. It takes days for the worthless CMC and UKMET to get onboard with the big boys.
Quoting SSideBrac:
Strange - according to NHC 1100 update Cayman has issued a TS Watch for Grand Cayman - cannot find any Cayman Govt release on that at all
I saw that too but I don't see anything from CI Govt. either.
I better never quit my day job....lol....I was sold on a GOM storm with Ernesto. Oh well...that's what's fun about this blog. The experts are normally right...and I'm normally wrong...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Seems we'll be busy on the blog for a few weeks.Gonna need it after dead July. Agreed.Their be no point in this blog then.Models aren't perfect.
probably Gordon,Helene,Isaac and maybe Joyce and Kirk will be cape verde. btw do you think I should cancel my trip to the beach tomorrow now that Ernesto is weak he should be a problem?
Don't write off Ernesto just yet, convection sames to be catching up with the LL swirl, we have some storm breeze here in Grand Cayman with that occasional howling of the wind which I hate!
Quoting allancalderini:
probably Gordon,Helene,Isaac and maybe Joyce and Kirk will be cape verde. btw do you think I should cancel my trip to the beach tomorrow now that Ernesto is weak he should be a problem?
When will they form huh answer me!
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like I may (probably) will end up being wrong about Ernesto. There are probably physical and dynamical reasons for Ernesto's current disheveled appearance that are not well understood. Even though there is dry air present, a tropical cyclone under this much TCHP should not be struggling this much.


I gotta tell you..... for days I was downcasting Ernesto..... but I was so amazed by the bursts of convection yesterday, I finally gave in to reason, and jumped on board...... even stating that Ernesto could become a Hurricane today! I did not follow the storm for 12hrs, and was simply amazed at what I saw this morning...... a naked swirl in advance of very little convection......

I must confess, it is storms like this that fascinate me more than any others...... we have so much science and engineering, only to be left with inadequate results when forecasting storms like Ernesto. Makes me realize, while our forecasting abilities have improved, marginally, we still have a long way to go!

I am humbled by storms like Ernesto!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I like to look at the models for possible solutions not a exact forecast.
Agree the models are not perfect not even Humans are perfect we all make mistakes and from mistakes we learn.
Quoting robert88:
WOW...The GFS wins another complex situation!!! The GFS sniffed those conditions out from the very start....even before recon data was put in. The upgrade has become a HUGE + for the NHC.
The NHC has been discounting GFS since the beginning and as only now started to embrace it's forecast track.
Link Carib WV Loop This shows the dry air gap is shortening.

From the 11 AM Discussion:
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD MOTION TO DECELERATE.
Quoting allancalderini:
probably Gordon,Helene,Isaac and maybe Joyce and Kirk will be cape verde. btw do you think I should cancel my trip to the beach tomorrow now that Ernesto is weak he should be a problem?
I wouldn't say cancel.Take precaution and try to stay out of the water if possible due to rip currents.Could be some gusty winds with rain.
Quoting lottotexas:
The NHC has been discounting GFS since the beginning and as only now started to embrace it's forecast track.

This is not true. They have stayed with the basically westerly track, adjusting a little north to accomodate the other models.
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
When will they form huh answer me!
I am just thinking even though the Gfs has show Gordon,Helene and I think that Isaac appears to to be cape verde storms.
Quoting thelmores:


I gotta tell you..... for days I was downcasting Ernesto..... but I was so amazed by the bursts of convection yesterday, I finally gave in to reason, and jumped on board...... even stating that Ernesto could become a Hurricane today! I did not follow the storm for 12hrs, and was simply amazed at what I saw this morning...... a naked swirl in advance of very little convection......

I must confess, it is storms like this that fascinate me more than any others...... we have so much science and engineering, only to be left with inadequate results when forecasting storms like Ernesto. Makes me realize, while our forecasting abilities have improved, marginally, we still have a long way to go!

I am humbled by storms like Ernesto!


Yeah, I think there is not enough instability in the Caribbeann right now and too much dry air. Originally, back 4-5 days ago - it was stated and widely thought that the Caribbeann was not a conducive environment at all for tropical development. This has proved to be the case with Ernesto.

We have learned 2 things with Ernesto: 1) El Nino 2) trust the models.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I agree 100%. Move over Euro, you're nit the best model anymore!


Euro is doing fine right now, even had a weaker storm to the southern yucatan when the GFS had a strong TS into the northern yucatan

look who is in better shape now?
ECMWF is still the great model but the GFS is right there
i noted that the Interactive Global Geostationary Weather Satellite Images are not updating
Quoting washingtonian115:
I wouldn't say cancel.Take precaution and try to stay out of the water if possible due to rip currents.Could be some gusty winds with rain.
Oh ok is that I am so excite this is one my last time I am going out because I am starting high school very soon.
convection starting to increase and the one just NE of the LLCOC is also expanding and increasing
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
wow!!

Do u think Gordon will impact the Mid Atlantic???
Quoting lottotexas:
The NHC has been discounting GFS since the beginning and as only now started to embrace it's forecast track.


The GFS is gaining much credibility this season - nailing Debby and now Ernesto. Bloggers as well as NHC will heavily bias this model from here on out.

not good for ernie.

Quoting Levi32:
Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, August 5th, with Video
I really like your tibits I learn a lot of them thanks for making them. :)
Quoting wxmobilejim:
What are the HH doing?



Probably trying to find Ernesto....... they know he was there somewhere yesterday! LOL
Why do the isobars for some tropical systems show up as squares on the GFS sometimes?

what would make the model come up with square pressure patterns?
Ernesto might not even make it to the coast intact:



Why are so many in here talking like Ernesto is done?


We don't really know what model in the end will ultimately be right until Ernesto is gone completely. Conditions ahead of it are conducive for it to strengthen again
Track is the easiest thing model wise for most storms (leave Debby out of it for the moment) and the 3-day NHC track, based on model consensus, is the best consensus we can get. Intensity is the hardest part of the equation hands down; you hope to get it right but it is subject to so many minute factors some of which (like RI) we are still struggling to comprehend.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_w ind

Gulf of Mexico wind model (gfs) shows a good bit of south wind beginning Tues AM. in to Wed. across eastern gulf. Looks like an axis to the north of Ernesto flushes from SE to NW. Almost looks like a cold front in reverse from the carrib.
3828. 7544
we need the mjo to kick in
Quoting Levi32:


Mean trade winds accelerate from east to west in the central Caribbean, causing surface divergence and sinking. Tom posted a paper link yesterday detailing the Caribbean low-level jet. This has been discussed for countless years as a climatological inhibitor to tropical cyclones. Sometimes the trade winds are favorable to allow something to develop, but here they weren't. Ernesto is nothing special.


To put it more simply....... its like the funnel effect...... We have seen MANY storms with similar tracks end with a similar fate as Ernesto!

Nothing special indeed!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Don't write off Ernesto just yet, convection sames to be catching up with the LL swirl, we have some storm breeze here in Grand Cayman with that occasional howling of the wind which I hate!

Going to be some decent surf in south sound tomorrow ?
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Why are so many in here talking like Ernesto is done?


We don't really know what model in the end will ultimately be right until Ernesto is gone completely. Conditions ahead of it are conducive for it to strengthen again
Doesn't have much time, running out of real estate, GFS buries it into Central America.

3832. cg2916
Wow! I come back to a very poorly organized Ernesto.
Quoting Articuno:

I am never gonna trust a "E" storm again..
told u the F storm was the 1 2 watch....
Still not over!
3835. Levi32
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Why do the isobars for some tropical systems show up as squares on the GFS sometimes?

what would make the model come up with square pressure patterns?


Because the long-range GFS beyond 192 hours runs at a lower grid resolution, and lower resolution grids trying to resolve circular isobars end up rendering them as squares.
Still think Kirk is the storm to watch this year... Cleverbot said so.
If the GFS is right looks as if Gordon will immediately develop and will recurve.Looks like Helene does the same as well.Isn't it Ironic?.You know Gordon and Helene were also cape verde storms in 2006 and were both majors XD.
Hi....Checking in for a sec....Ernesto doing the ol one step forward...two steps back. Very interesting to watch to say the least. Today will be another dance lesson. It's like watching rehersals and wondering how it will all come together. (Can you tell I've got kids in dance) ;)
If Ernesto doesn`t start to slow down and move more northward he would probably make landfall in Honduras or Belize and there is a possibility that he never reach the gulf.
MJO GFS Forecast
3841. KmanGal
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I saw that too but I don't see anything from CI Govt. either.


The CINWS and CITN have reported that Cayman is under a Tropical Storm Watch as of the 10am Bulletin. Dr. Fred Sambula and McCLeary Frederick made the decision as a precautionary measure.
Ernesto looks awful at the moment and will probably never recover. It was never a guarantee Ernesto was going to put on the brakes. The trade winds and dry did a number on him. When your not vertically stacked and your moving over 20mph...you got problems.
Quoting washingtonian115:
If the GFS is right looks as if Gordon will immediately develop and will recurve.Looks like Helene does the same as well.Isn't it Ironic?.You know Gordon and Helene were also cape verde storms in 2006 and were both majors XD.
do you think Isaac would recurve if it form from a cape Verde system?
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Still think Kirk is the storm to watch this year... Cleverbot said so.
No no no.Isaac.I can imagine something like this on the news "Isaac eyeing coast".Ha ha get it You know with the long I sound on both of them..please don't throw a tomato at me...
Quoting 7544:
we need the mjo to kick in


There was a Kelvin wave that kicked all this off & it moved east. Yesterday convergence aloft built in. It's moving east too. Another Kelvin wave is coming from the east Pacific with the MJO behind. Awesome animation here. Warm colors is convergence aloft. Cool blues is divergence aloft. Click fwd.
3847. Zedjam
Quoting stormpetrol:
Don't write off Ernesto just yet, convection sames to be catching up with the LL swirl, we have some storm breeze here in Grand Cayman with that occasional howling of the wind which I hate!


Here in Kingston Jamaica its overcast, with some delightful wind gusts to 12mph.
Quoting Joe21:
Can anybody my question.
Is it possible that florence does what Andrew did weaken in the ATL and then blow back up and then be a threat to east coast like from FL to Carolinas.
Been thinking about this possibility since Flo formed... it's possible, but atm I think probabilities r low...
TCHP starting to work. Convection firing neast side of the swirl. ;) Slowly, gradually. Wait, watch, see!
3850. hydrus
Quoting stormpetrol:
Don't write off Ernesto just yet, convection sames to be catching up with the LL swirl, we have some storm breeze here in Grand Cayman with that occasional howling of the wind which I hate!
No reason for anyone to discount this storm..There is still the real possibility of a major hurricane developing.
Quoting allancalderini:
do you think Isaac would recurve if it form from a cape Verde system?
That is a possibility.Especially since it seems that these waves are exiting more up north.But it could be a situation where the first few storms go out to sea and the high rebuilds back in unfortunately sending one storm more west having a chance to affect land.
End of ernesto in the BOC it seems:
Quoting KmanGal:


The CINWS and CITN have reported that Cayman is under a Tropical Storm Watch as of the 10am Bulletin. Dr. Fred Sambula and McCLeary Frederick made the decision as a precautionary measure.
Thanks. I went on HMCI and Cayman Prepared which is where it "SHOULD" be posted and didn't see anything.
Quoting hydrus:
No reason for anyone to discount this storm..There is still the real possibility of a major hurricane developing.


major hurricane ? not a ch
Quoting Skyepony:


There was a Kelvin wave that kicked all this off & it moved east. Yesterday convergence aloft built in. It's moving east too. Another Kelvin wave is coming from the east Pacific with the MJO behind. Awesome animation here. Warm colors is convergence aloft. Cool blues is divergence aloft. Click fwd.
Neato...
3857. etxwx
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not going against it anymore, no matter what it shows.

Whatever they did to the model, it's working.

Hey TA13, I always appreciate your analysis because if you disagree or don't understand you give your reasons. I've never seen you pull something out of ...uh ummmm...a can of speculation and present it as fact. You have excellent reasoning skills and aren't reluctant to admit error, so hats off to you. I mean that sincerely.
The best thing I've learned from the Ernesto discussions is if the storm is not doing what it "should" be doing, then there are some puzzle pieces missing in our analysis - meaning it's time to sit back and take another look. Weather is complex but it's not magic...changes in it are due to identifiable forces. Trying to identify and account for all complex forces acting on a system is like trying to juggle 27 balls at once - it's easy to drop a few. Don't disbelieve or absolutely believe the models, try to understand the "why" of the model predictions. Just my two cents...and I'll even give ya change. :-)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
End of ernesto in the BOC it seems:
Judging by that looks like future Gordon develops immediately and will hopefully stay out to sea like a good cape verde storm.
Quoting BahaHurican:
told u the F storm was the 1 2 watch....


its even worse..

Quoting WxGeekVA:
Still think Kirk is the storm to watch this year... Cleverbot said so.


so does my local met kirk
Quoting Chicklit:

This is not true. They have stayed with the basically westerly track, adjusting a little north to accomodate the other models.
When Ernesto
Quoting Chicklit:

This is not true. They have stayed with the basically westerly track, adjusting a little north to accomodate the other models.
My mistake. Just read through all discussions and saw that they didn't discount GFS but were relying more on the other models call for a more northerly solution.
If the GFS is right, TD 7 may form right off the African coast

that high is pretty strong too, but if that system gets strong quick enough, it will probably go out to sea
Quoting washingtonian115:
No no no.Isaac.I can imagine something like this on the news "Isaac eyeing coast".Ha ha get it You know with the long I sound on both of them..please don't throw a tomato at me...
LOL, it's so far out we don't know the origins of Isaac. With the MJO returning I would also keep an eye off the SE Coast and Western Caribbean for home grown development that come off stalled out boundaries,, in addition to Cape Verde development. One thing I have noticed on recent model runs, it looks like the troughs are going to be stronger and more frequent. As the atmosphere responds that could also be a sign that we are inching closer to an El Nino.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
TCHP starting to work. Convection firing neast side of the swirl. ;) Slowly, gradually. Wait, watch, see!


I'm thinking I'm seeing multiple vortices. Decoupled? May be now. Look seast of the the exposed LLC.

VISIBLE LOOP
We 'should' begin to see Ernesto start to organize later tonight into a real tropical cyclone with a circulation.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Judging by that looks like future Gordon develops immediately and will hopefully stay out to sea like a good cape verde storm.


well it wont recurve for a while...we'll have to see if the western edge of the high stays weak enough for it to recurve in time...
3867. KmanGal
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. I went on HMCI and Cayman Prepared which is where it "SHOULD" be posted and didn't see anything.



That's another story in itself! LOL ;-)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Judging by that looks like future Gordon develops immediately and will hopefully stay out to sea like a good cape verde storm.
I am waiting for Michael the M storms are the ones that affect us ex Mitch Michelle Matthew.even though when they are P storms too they affect us too.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
LOL, it's so far out we don't know the origins of Isaac. With the MJO returning I would also keep an eye off the SE Coast and Western Caribbean for home grown development that come off stalled out boundaries,, in addition to Cape Verde development. One thing I have noticed on recent model runs, it looks like the troughs are going to be stronger and more frequent. As the atmosphere responds that could also be a sign that we are inching closer to an El Nino.
Hey but the I storms have been on a role these last few years.So we'll see if Isaac either breaks or continue the stretch.
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
that crazy
When is this and is this gordon


High to the north moves "Gordon" due west

could see watches and warnings of some kind for the Cape Verde Islands as the system is moving off the coast of Africa, since the GFS shows the system going right over them


Daily Atlantic Tropical Analysis
3873. Msdrown
Quoting Msdrown:
Newby here again. The Weather Channel just said because that low in BOC is moving off to the west Ernesto is more then likely not going to affect the US. My question is the dry air pocket to the west of Ernesto seems to be getting sandwitched into the YUC. Will it be pushed over the YUC or will it dissappear all together??It seems to me that if it goes over the YUC it will suck up the humidity from the jungle which could moisten the air contributing to Ernesto. Also what about the trough to the north that you all were talking could pick the storm up and move it into the northern GOM?



Chicklit: Your comment about the Low in the BOC on post 3807. Could you answer my above question for me pleas?
2 scenarios that I am pondering at this moment, and any input you have on these would be appreciated:

1) Ernesto fully dissipates over the Yucatan/CA?

2) Ernesto begins to slightly strengthen before hitting the Yucatan, but then weakens due to land interaction. The weakening trend causes a center reformation - changing the track forecast as he re-emerges in the Gulf?

The reason I mention scenario #2 is because climatologically this happened several times in the past.
Quoting allancalderini:
I am waiting for Michael the M storms are the ones that affect us ex Mitch Michelle Matthew.even though when they are P storms too they affect us too.
Lol.That is true.I've also notice that.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey but the I storms have been on a role these last few years.So we'll see if Isaac either breaks or continue the stretch.
If Isaac is not retire will be the only veteran I to be in the lists since they start if I remember correctly the 6 veterans were Isaac,Iris,Isabel,Ivan,Irene,Isidore.
3877. scott39
Only man can give arrogance to an automated tool.
FWTIW. Here are portions of the upgrades to the GFS this year from NCEP. It's a long list so the entire link is below.

NOUS41 KWBC 251842 AAB
PNSWSH

Technical Implementation Notice 12-22, Amended
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
342 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2012

Effective on or about Tuesday, May 22, 2012, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the GFS model and its associated data assimilation system (GDAS). The primary changes will be to the analysis system. There will be no major changes to the GFS model itself, but there will be a few modifications to the output products available from the GFS.

The primary change to the operational GFS and GDAS will be in the analysis system. The major component of the analysis change will be the incorporation of a hybrid variational/ensemble assimilation system. In this system, the background error used to project the information in the observations into the analysis is created by a combination of a static background error (as in the prior system) and a new background error produced from a lower resolution (T254) Ensemble Kalman Filter. The development of this system was done in collaboration with PSD at ESRL. The inclusion of this change and the other smaller changes listed below produce significant positive impact on forecasts in both the northern and southern hemispheres and in the tropics. In almost all measures, a positive impact is noted; however, during the summer (convective precipitation) season, a small consistent degradation of the rain/no rain line and an increase in the bias was noted. This problem will be addressed through modifications to the convective parameterization in the next global implementation.

GFS Model Changes:

The global spectral model is restructured, but there are no major physics or dynamics changes except for some bug fixes. The impact of these changes on the forecast is at the machine round off level.


Link


168 hours, ridge continues to intensify to the north and the storm is moving due west
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.That is true.I've also notice that.
Do you remember hurricane Gloria?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey but the I storms have been on a role these last few years.So we'll see if Isaac either breaks or continue the stretch.
That's true, last year Irene, the year before Igor, in '08 Ike, '04 Ivan, '03 Isabel, '02 Isidore. The "I" names have made quite a feat for themselves.
Quoting allancalderini:
Figures Ernesto would pass near me at least is weak and will bring beneficial rains to me.looks like the Gfs and Euro well right all along.
u r on the north coast, yes?

Quoting robert88:
The ECMWF has done pretty well also. I always take a blend of the GFS and ECMWF myself. They are the best globals hands down. The rest are junk now. It takes days for the worthless CMC and UKMET to get onboard with the big boys.
Even cmc is better than it used to be.
Grand Cayman is under a Tropical Storm Watch rain bands are expected to impact us as early as this afternoon
Looks like the GFS had good handle on Ernesto from the start. . . just like it did a good job with Debby. I see no reason to discount it's predictions for Florence and her dissipation down the near future.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We 'should' begin to see Ernesto start to organize later tonight into a real tropical cyclone with a circulation.
I doubt that happening.
3888. Patrap

3889. hydrus
Quoting BahaHurican:
u r on the north coast, yes?

Even cmc is better than it used to be.
Absolutely.
We've been having some pretty decent winds here today, courtesy I suppose of the pressure gradient between the high and Ernesto...

Beautiful day to be in the Bahamas.
Ernesto is headed for Honduras...shows about over folks. The last 2 frames it's heading SW. Link

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Grand Cayman is under a Tropical Storm Watch rain bands are expected to impact us as early as this afternoon
Rain is about all we MIGHT get.
AL, 05, 2012080518, , BEST, 0, 152N, 779W, 45, 1006, TS
AL, 06, 2012080518, , BEST, 0, 164N, 360W, 45, 1005, TS,
3895. akailm
Quoting lottotexas:
try here and google HAARPLink