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Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. wxmod
Satellites reveal sudden Greenland ice melt

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18978483http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18978483
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Note a lot of the bad storms avoided the US. and in '96 most of the bad storms took a path north of the Caribbean with 3 making landfall on the east coast. I call these east coast storms "east coast bruisers" because of the large swath of coastline they impact.
2001 was the first season I followed using a computer. My best memory of that season was watching Michelle get shredded as she crossed Cuba. By the time she passed south of us [well over us, really, since the eye was so huge] her eye was around 60 m in diameter. That was a freaky storm; prior to the arrival of the eye, we had torrential downpours, and our street was a river. After the eye passed, we got almost no more rain, but the wind was so strong that it basically blew the water off the street. By the time the wind had subsided, the street, which had been under 8-10 inches of water during the eye passage, was basically dry. I only can say things would have been much worse here if Michelle hadn't been moving so fast and simultaneously beginning a transition to extratropical. [Also Thank God for Cuba...]

I wonder where I put the photos I took...
1503. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wonder if the influx of new bloggers will be an extreme number or just a few. TWC caters to the more casual weather fan, so I wouldn't be surprised if the new cast isn't an overwhelming number.


I know I am missing something here...

What's supposed to happen? :\
Really nothing to note for rest of the run...
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Being serious or sarcasm?


Nah... only joking... I got the link
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Really nothing to note for rest of the run...
Just a high pressure that controls the Atlantic. This is not like yesterday with a hurricane headed for the US.
What a sick high projected. Hope, really hope that's not how it pans out. Can you say heatwave returns to fry more crops over the majority of the US? (not that it ever really left) Not to mention if any of those waves form off of Africa, then with that high in place, we'd be looking at a Southern track which could easily mean US landfall. Heatwave possibly to intensify in the next 10-20 days then?
1508. txjac
Quoting Tribucanes:
What a sick high projected. Hope, really hope that's not how it pans out. Can you say heatwave returns to fry more crops over the majority of the US? (not that it ever really left) Not to mention if any of those waves form off of Africa, then with that high in place, we'd be looking at a Southern track which could easily mean US landfall. Heatwave possibly to intensify in the next 10-20 days then?


Let's hope not ...no more heat.
Quoting Civicane49:
98L:

Storms refiring?

Anyhoo, doubt it'll get named anymore... it needed to keep the convection tonight.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
172 HR:
This looks more like what we saw... wonder if this one fizzles or keeps going...

Quoting Bluestorm5:
252 HR: sorry for spamming the blog

All us lazy bloggers out here appreciate your hard work...
Looks like first wave being afected by SAL... 2nd one isn't...

Wait a minute... is she?



Water Vapor
Quoting Tribucanes:
What a sick high projected. Hope, really hope that's not how it pans out. Can you say heatwave returns to fry more crops over the majority of the US? (not that it ever really left) Not to mention if any of those waves form off of Africa, then with that high in place, we'd be looking at a Southern track which could easily mean US landfall. Heatwave possibly to intensify in the next 10-20 days then?
The whole US hopes not another heatwave but at the end of the run a trough over the great lakes with a 1007mb low.
JLPR2 not missing much. Just WU officially becomes a part of TWC tomorrow. Blog here will remain the same I believe. When they cross-link the two we will be getting an expected onslaught of TWC crowd here. Should be fun and will shake things up. WU will remain unchanged for now. Just better toys for the WU experts to access.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Storms refiring?

Anyhoo, doubt it'll get named anymore... it needed to keep the convection tonight.


If it doesn't increase its convection by morning, it'll likely won't get named.
I just realized it's almost 1 a.m. my time... and I haven't gotten into bed yet.... at least I don't have to leave for work before 9 tomorrow... so I can get up at 5 a.m. and see what's going on... then get back into bed until 7:30... lol.

Anyway, I'm out more or less for the night. Enjoy the rest...

Possibility of the second tropical like storm ever forming over the Great Lakes? Hurricane Huron #2 would have this blog on fire.
Quoting Civicane49:


If it doesn't increase its convection by tomorrow morning, it'll likely won't get named.
Seems like convection may be increasing alittle now.
Click for loop
>
1518. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
JLPR2 not missing much. Just WU officially becomes a part of TWC tomorrow. Blog here will remain the same I believe. When they cross-link the two we will be getting an expected onslaught of TWC crowd here. Should be fun and will shake things up. WU will remain unchanged for now. Just better toys for the WU experts to access.


Ha! I see.
A few days ago I deleted almost a hundred of my photos, I don't like the idea of TWC having rights over them. And from now on I will probably be a very infrequent Wu-photo uploader. :\
Your a real trooper Baha!
Quoting wxchaser97:
Seems like convection may be increasing alittle now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/imag ery/rb0.jpg
Click for loop


Only a little bit.
is 98L refiring convection or I am imagine it?
Quoting sunlinepr:


Nah... only joking... I got the link
Haha, ok. I just don't want to do anything wrong :)
Looks to be trying to re-fire.
Quoting allancalderini:
is 98L refiring convection or I am imagine it?

Just a little, will be interesting to see things in the morning.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Possibility of the second tropical like storm ever forming over the Great Lakes? Hurricane Huron #2 would have this blog on fire.
I wouldnt have to leave home to see a hurricane. That would be a sight to see and in the future it could happen.
Quoting BahaHurican:
2001 was the first season I followed using a computer. My best memory of that season was watching Michelle get shredded as she crossed Cuba. By the time she passed south of us [well over us, really, since the eye was so huge] her eye was around 60 m in diameter. That was a freaky storm; prior to the arrival of the eye, we had torrential downpours, and our street was a river. After the eye passed, we got almost no more rain, but the wind was so strong that it basically blew the water off the street. By the type the wind had subsided, the street, which had been under 8-10 inches of water during the eye passage, was basically dry. I only can say things would have been much worse here if Michelle hadn't been moving so fast and simultaneously beginning a transition to extratropical. [Also Thank God for Cuba...]

I wonder where I put the photos I took...
kind of the same with me, Gabrielle was a strong tropical storm borderline hurricane when it made landfall in Sarasota FL. and packed quite a punch, i was spending the night over at my cousins house and when I woke up in the morning the water in her pool was splashing out and the trees were really swaying, not to say I haven't been interested in the weather, since I have been passionate about the weather since I was a little boy and used to go outside when we had thunderstorms with frequent lightning or I would watch from my window. Before tracking the storms on the computer I would watch TWC and get updates from John Hope, Paul Goodloe, Dave Scwartz, Steve Lyons, Jeanetta Jones, Kristina Abernathy, Vivian Brown, Bob Stokes, Jeff Marrow, Mike Seidel just to name a few.
I'm out for the night.

Good night all.
The contrast between yesterday's 00Z GFS and today's..... is killing me. I'm done.. see you next year :) lol
Quoting Civicane49:
I'm out for the night.

Good night all.
Good night Civicane. Wunder if 98L can make convection continue to increase.
1532. pcola57
Quoting Tribucanes:
Living the dream now then wxchaser97. Missed a busy, busy day here. Everyone got excited, then unexcited; then left. Fun none the less, lots of good banter today too. 37 minutes until WU as we know it is gone forever, maybe it'll be better; who knows. I for one am optimistic. Wondering how many will come to blog now from TWC. Fresh blood will be good for the blog. And if not, the vets here will have to crack the whip to keep order. Into the unknown we go. Very glad to be on a blog with such a quality cast though. People genuinely care for each other here. Hard, damn hard, to find a blog where that's the case. Thanks Jeff and all you awesome bloggers for a lot of enjoyment. (Yes I'm including those I ardently disagree with too.)


We have but a few short minutes to go and I for one want to say I appreciate your comment and hope that you continue your blogging with WU..
I have always been an anti-establishment guy..
So my hope is that the free voice that was WU continues to be so and if TWC gets kicked in the teeth sometimes,well thats just the way it is in my book..
They have their weakness too..
Hope they can take it...
'cause I'm not planning to change my blogging because of them..
Free thinking doesn't need boundries and I hope none are applied..
Dr. Masters has been generous with so many varied tops for the thinking people here..
I could rant on but gotta see what may come of all of this..
Let the transition begin..
I'll try to stay positive.. :)
1533. Patrap
Fresca anyone?
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good night Civicane. Wunder if 98L can make convection continue to increase.
Hope it can I really want that thing to be designate as Ernesto. I know it chances will be down at the next two but maybe they will be increase later.
1535. pcola57
Quoting Patrap:
Fresca anyone?


To you very good health,sir..bottoms up.. :)
Quoting allancalderini:
Hope it can I really want that thing to be designate as Ernesto. I know it chances will be down at the next two but maybe they will be increase later.
Prolly, but you never know. Im staying up to see what they say and then I will go to bed. Sever threat over the Great lakes today with a wind, hail, and tornado threat.
I, for one, welcome our new TWC overlords
I haven't had cable now for nearing a decade. When I get the chance to watch cable it's often TWC. While I enjoy the nuts and bolts of climate and weather, their programming is pretty cool too for the CASUAL weather lover. Still would love to see them dedicate just one hour a day to the ins and outs of weather and climate. Late at night if need be, but like a master's course in meteorology and climatology. I get my information from all over the world. I consider myself lucky to not have cable most days.
How's the night going for ya Patrap? Hope your well!
1540. Patrap
Just awoken from a 4 hour nap.

I'm preparing to write a new Entry for me own blog.

Or Not.

: )

1543. Patrap
To those new owners up in Bains and Blackstones Ivory towers.


A word of caution

,,please Handle us with care.

We family.

Been beat up and battered 'round
Been sent up, and I've been shot down
You're the best thing that we've ever found
Handle Us with care

Reputations changeable
Situations tolerable
Baby, you're adorable
Handle Us with care

I'm so tired of being lonely
I still have some love to give
Won't you show Us that you really care

Everybody's got somebody to lean on
Put your body next to our's, and dream on

I've been fobbed off, and we've been fooled
I've been robbed and ridiculed
In day care centers and night schools
Handle Us with care

Been stuck in airports, terrorized
Sent to meetings, hypnotized
Overexposed, commercialized
Handle Us with care

I'm so tired of being lonely
I still have some love to give
Won't you show Us that you really care

Everybody's got somebody to lean on
Put your body next to our's, and dream on

I've been uptight and made a mess
But I'll clean it up myself, I guess
Oh, the sweet smell of success
Handle Us with care









Waiting for TWC to post something on the blog welcoming us to the machine. Just had to get a Floyd song into the sentence; seeing how it's been one of the themes of the week.
Patrap, you've got more rhymes than a bottle's got soul.
Still 40%
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20
MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Good night everyone
1548. MrMixon
Beautiful storm just rolled over. I'll blow to the east and see if I can't get some of that rain out to the scorched plains...



See y'all on the other side.
1549. pcola57
Quoting Patrap:
To those new owners up in Bains and Blackstones Ivory tower.


A word of caution

,,please Handle us with care.

We family.

Been beat up and battered 'round
Been sent up, and I've been shot down
You're the best thing that we've ever found
Handle Us with care

Reputations changeable
Situations tolerable
Baby, you're adorable
Handle Us with care

I'm so tired of being lonely
I still have some love to give
Won't you show Us that you really care

Everybody's got somebody to lean on
Put your body next to our's, and dream on

I've been fobbed off, and we've been fooled
I've been robbed and ridiculed
In day care centers and night schools
Handle Us with care

Been stuck in airports, terrorized
Sent to meetings, hypnotized
Overexposed, commercialized
Handle Us with care

I'm so tired of being lonely
I still have some love to give
Won't you show Us that you really care

Everybody's got somebody to lean on
Put your body next to our's, and dream on

I've been uptight and made a mess
But I'll clean it up myself, I guess
Oh, the sweet smell of success
Handle Us with care











Traveling Wilbury's..Always made me smile..loved those guy's.. :)
Edit:(Well..gonna call it a rant well done now and edit out some things... :)
1550. pcola57
Quoting Tribucanes:
Waiting for TWC to post something on the blog welcoming us to the machine. Just had to get a Floyd song into the sentence; seeing how it's been one of the themes of the week.


Well put..
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I, for one, welcome our new TWC overlords
You should welcome them with a meme.
well lets see how it goes

iam out for the night see ya all after 8 am
Checkmate coming.
1554. pcola57
Quoting Tribucanes:
The game may be chess, and we may be but pawns; but God's playing with all Queens.


Had to clean up that comment..a ban for 48 or so..not worth it right now.. :)
And your right God has it in Queen's(or spades depending on your game... :)
I'm gone for the night
A big shout out to Jeff Masters! He's been leading the charge against a hurricane of those who didn't want him to. What great posts, great insight, and great striving after truth. Who, in his position, answers almost all questions to him personally? A great and selfless man. I hope this gets forwarded to the morning crew. Didn't hear it said today, so I'll say it now; thank you so very very much Jeff!
Thanks a lot to you too Patrap, you've been one of the most informative here in my opinion. Skyepony is at the top too. Always great information and she never enters the political arena. Smart Lady. Too many here to name for me. You know who you are, thanks so much for kindness, respect, and your great knowledge. Pensacola Doug, if you feel as you feel, then stick to your guns. I can respect that. I don't fit any political mold here like so many of us. This is really like a family to me. I appreciate just being able to be here.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
114 HR: Still something over Africa?



Saharan Thermal Low?
Wouldn't that be something? Had to refresh myself on what that actually is. Wouldn't that lessen our chances of a developing wave off of Africa?
1560. Patrap
Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks Patrap but I'm in Wisconsin. :)


Sorry to hear that then.

LOL Patrap, want to insert Walker in my response, but I'm guessing that's not going to be kosher anymore. :)
1562. Patrap
Never heard of Him.

today is the day we will know if 98L is destinied to become Ernesto or not.
If I hurt myself laughing Patrap you'll be hearing from my lawyer.
1565. Patrap
98L WV

Well if it's trying to re-fire convection now it's probably got a little better than 50/50 shot of making it. Would be nice to have a storm to opine on for TWC's fist day of ownership.
NW Atlantic satellite shows a really strong center of circulation still. Thinking maybe 60-70% chance by morning if evolution continues as it has so far through the night.
Quoting BahaHurican:
2001 was the first season I followed using a computer. My best memory of that season was watching Michelle get shredded as she crossed Cuba. By the time she passed south of us [well over us, really, since the eye was so huge] her eye was around 60 m in diameter. That was a freaky storm; prior to the arrival of the eye, we had torrential downpours, and our street was a river. After the eye passed, we got almost no more rain, but the wind was so strong that it basically blew the water off the street. By the time the wind had subsided, the street, which had been under 8-10 inches of water during the eye passage, was basically dry. I only can say things would have been much worse here if Michelle hadn't been moving so fast and simultaneously beginning a transition to extratropical. [Also Thank God for Cuba...]

I wonder where I put the photos I took...


tl;dr
Patrap the picture you posted with "never heard of him" was just priceless. Literally laughed for minutes. Wish you didn't take it down, because that was hilarious!
Quoting Tribucanes:
NW Atlantic satellite shows a really strong center of circulation still. Thinking maybe 60-70% chance by morning if evolution continues as it has so far through the night.
It just need convection and persistence to have Ernesto out of it.
1572. Patrap
Climate Change Effects: Things Global Warming Just Might Ruin For Your Kids
Posted: 07/24/2012 11:45 pm


The continental U.S. has just experienced the hottest 12 month period in recorded history. The West is on fire. The Maldives are going underwater and California can expect a sea level rise of six inches in less than 20 years.

An increasing number of studies are making the connections between human activities, climate change and a rise in extreme weather events. While it is difficult to point to climate change as causing a single weather event without in-depth research, patterns are emerging.

Scientists warn that climate change will bring an increase in heat waves, droughts, floods and worsening storms. Not a rosy forecast for our future, let alone our children's future.

From chocolate to our favorite island getaways, a variety of studies suggest that many of the things and places that we most enjoy may be gone if we stay on this path. Below is a list of some of the things that may be changed or ruined for future generations based on suggested effects of climate change. There is an element of speculation in this list, as predictions are difficult to determine.

What do you think will be ruined for your kids due to climate change? Tweet us what #climatechangeruins for future generations, and we may include it in our slideshow below!
I can think of one thing it might ruin..........we may not have a planet suitable for human existence. But that, I guess, is what the next 10-20 years will determine in large part. Global Warming doesn't go up incrementally, it's like riding a one way escalator; it only goes up and you get there quickly.
I tip my 40 to your memory WU as we used to be. I'm out, Peace!
Baha what in the seven seas are you doing up??!! You've got to work shortly. :)
Good Morning All From America's Left Coast! Is the night crew in?
HHJ I've been punched in for too long.
Gotta be up in five hours. NP
NASA's sighting of hot towers indicated Typhoon Vicente's rapid intensification
July 24, 2012


NASA's TRMM satellite captured rainfall data on Typhoon Vicente on July 23, 2012. Vicente had mostly light to moderate rainfall - seen in the yellow, green and blue areas, where rain was falling between 20 and 40 millimeters (.78 to 1.57 inches) per hour. However, some heavy rainfall (falling at 2 inches/50 mm per hour) and hot towering clouds (in red) were seen around the center of circulation. Credit: Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce

Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is still somewhat of a mystery to forecasters, but one marker that NASA scientists confirmed is when "hot towers" appear within a tropical cyclone as they did in Typhoon Vicente before it exploded in strength on July 23. Vicente made landfall in southern China on July 23.

Quoting BahaHurican:
is convection redeveloping or dissipating?
Quoting Tribucanes:
Baha what in the seven seas are you doing up??!! You've got to work shortly. :)
Couldn't sleep... shoulder's killing me....
Was redeveloping about an hour ago. See ya'll in the morning. Have a great early morning.
Hopefully slowly Baha, we'd miss ya. And with that, I'm really out. See you tomorrow Baha.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


NASA Satellites Observe Widespread Melting Event on Greenland

‘Scientists Say They’ve Never Seen Anything Like This Before’


Nearly the entire ice sheet covering Greenland—from its thin coastal edges to its two-mile-thick center—experienced some degree of melting for several days in July 2012. According to measurements from three satellites and an analysis by NASA and university scientists, an estimated 97 percent of the top layer of the ice sheet had thawed at some point in mid-July, the largest extent of surface melting observed in three decades of satellite observations.


This is the sort of post you would normally expect to see only on April fools day.
I would not have expected to see this kind of event yet!
Quoting allancalderini:
is convection redeveloping or dissipating?
Looks like it's rebuilding a little bit...

OPC doesn't expect much of this...
Hmmm... some in China are attributing the heavy rainfall in Beijing to Vicente... as seen here:

Also found this story about Chinese met's reaction to Vicente's RI:

Scientists fooled by rapid growth of storm's ferocity
Cheung Chi-fai
Jul 25, 2012
A squatter area wrecked by Typhoon Rose in 1971.

Typhoon Vicente took most people by surprise with its hurricane-force winds - not least atmospheric scientists puzzled by how it intensified in such a short time and distance.

"The typhoon's action was beyond the expectation of many scientists watching it," said Professor Johnny Chan Chung-leung, dean of the School of Energy and Environment at City University.

"Even the United States, Japan and China didn't get it right this time. And everyone is discussing it now."

A chair professor of atmospheric science, Chan said Vicente went through a rare "rapid intensification" as it was developing in the South China Sea, transforming from a tropical depression into a severe typhoon within two days.

Chan said Vicente might have encountered a warm pool of water in the sea or there might have been some atmospheric flow pattern changes that gave rise to such rapid transformation. But more analysis was needed to find out the causes.

1588. JLPR2
Couldnt sleep so gave a look at our Tropical low.

+Vorticity is increasing.


+Convection also increased, although it's not that intense.


-Convergence is confined to the ITCZ.


-It's going to absorb that bit of SAL in it's north side.
This is the most detailed report I've found so far about impacts outside of Hong Kong.

Death and devastation as typhoon makes landfall
Jul 25, 2012


A tree lies across a road yesterday after it was uprooted in a rainstorm spawned by Typhoon Vicente in Enping City, Guangdong Province. Three people were killed in Guangdong.

Photo by Xinhua

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
THREE people were killed and six were reported missing as Typhoon Vicente made landfall early yesterday morning in Guangdong Province just minutes after it hit neighboring Hong Kong, leaving dozens injured and bringing the financial hub's businesses to a standstill.

Vicente hit Hong Kong at 4am with wind speeds that reached around 140 kilometers per hour, moderating to 59kph.

The government said 118 people had been injured during the night, with 52 admitted to hospital. Flying debris struck several people in the central business district and subway stations were converted into temporary shelters to accommodate stranded passengers.

At daybreak, the normally bustling central district resembled a ghost town, with the stock market and major banks closed, and businesses shut.

Dozens of flights at Hong Kong airport were cancelled or delayed, and ferry services linking Hong Kong island with Kowloon, the New Territories and outlying islands suspended.

After smashing through Hong Kong, Vicente headed to Guangdong.

It made landfall in coastal areas in Guangdong's Taishan City at around 4:15am, with wind speeds of up to 144kph near its center, spawning torrential rain, the provincial meteorological station said. As of 5pm yesterday, Vicente had caused 305 million yuan (US$47.7 million) in direct economic losses in Taishan alone, according to the municipal flood control headquarters.

The typhoon is expected to move northwest but is weakening. Gales and downpours are expected to hit western Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta today and tomorrow.

High-speed train services between Guangzhou and Shenzhen have been temporarily halted, the Guangzhou Railway Group Corp said, and speeds on the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed line reduced.

All shipping lines across the Qiongzhou Strait, between Leizhou Peninsula in Guangdong and Hainan Island, have been closed since Sunday night.

More than 10 flights were delayed by four to six hours on average at Nanning Wuxu International Airport in Guangdong's neighboring Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region yesterday.

In Guangdong, more than 710,000 households had power blackouts. However, electricity was back on in 470,000 households by 6pm after 5,760 workers were sent to repair the facilities, China Southern Power Grid said.

The meteorological station in Haikou, Hainan's capital, issued a red storm alert yesterday, the highest level in China's four-tier warning system.

Thirty-two flights were canceled at the Phoenix International Airport in Hainan's Sanya as of yesterday morning.

Seas off the coast of Guangdong, Fujian and Hainan provinces are expected to experience waves of 3 to 5 meters in height, according to the National Maritime Forecast Station, which warned local authorities and the public to take precautionary measures.


Quoting JLPR2:
Couldnt sleep so gave a look at our Tropical low.

+Vorticity is increasing.


+Convection also increased, although it's not that intense.


-Convergence is confined to the ITCZ.


-It's going to absorb that bit of SAL in it's north side.


I say bring them on!
There is a better looking low hauling buns across Africa,soon to enter the Atlantic
Let's see if one of them can pull a Vincente. He was quite the storm huh? Thats gotta be one of the most rapid intensification's I can recall. Didn't it go from like 974mb to 933mb in 6 hours? WOW,Now that was impressive!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Let's see if one of them can pull a Vincente. He was quite the storm huh? Thats gotta be one of the most rapid intensification's I can recall. Didn't it go from like 974mb to 933mb in 6 hours? WOW,Now that was impressive!
that mean that the rapid intensification of Ethel to a cat 5 might had been true.
Where is that Low in the North Atlantjc headed? Iceland?
Ethel from 1960?
went from ts to cat 5 in a day?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
went from ts to cat 5 in a day?
yep
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Where is that Low in the North Atlantjc headed? Iceland?
do you think 98L can still be Ernesto.
Be back in the morning
Quoting allancalderini:
do you think 98L can still be Ernesto.
Possible but personally, I don't think it will. :(
Quoting allancalderini:
do you think 98L can still be Ernesto.

it's a 1007mb low. it will be moving into cooler waters. IMO 98L won't make it.



Dramatic tornado video from Saskatchewan, Canada! July 24, 2012

Damn!! Now Lake Michigan is 97% above 22 degrees c, and Lake Superior is building up to that mark itself pretty quickly. I just can't get over all that purple...





Beginning of the month:

1606. LargoFl
...................good morning folks, for us in central and south florida its back to a normal summer day..........have a great day folks
1607. LargoFl
Good morning.

We can say bye to 98L and 90E.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20
MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Good morning... The remains of 98L


Good morning I see we still have no Ernesto. Expect 98L to be named Ernesto after Hurricane Season as 98L was no doubt a Tropical Storm yesterday evening. Also this area from the NE Gulf to the SE US coast will have to be watched in 9 to 10 days for a possible trough split type storm.


0Z Euro
Second moderate earthquake in 12 hours:

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
129 AM HST WED JUL 25 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0121 AM HST 25 JUL 2012
COORDINATES - 9.8 SOUTH 160.2 EAST
LOCATION - SOLOMON ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 6.6 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.
Here's the GFS Ensembles and it gives the idea that the Euro maybe on to something. Either way expect things to get real stormy next week across the SE US as a trough digs all the way down into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Hello,
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me
Is there anyone home?



Good Morning. Looks like the gang is still here this AM.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

CORRECTED LOCATION

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Only other feature that catches my eye this morning is that mini blob firing up in the NE Gulf south of the Florida Big bend. Baroclinic at the moment due to the proximity to the ULL Tutt cell over the Florida Big Bend Coast.

250 mb ULL

Link

This system in the Gulf is persistant! If it continues to sit here it may try to spin up.





1615. StormTracker2K 8:02 AM EDT on July 25, 2012

Persistence is key; I just updated my entry below as you posted. It's baroclinic at the moment due to the ULL in the area.
It looks like it things will start getting interesting soon.

1618. ncstorm
Good Morning..

The Nogaps is still trying to develop the african wave..

There's going to be a potential windspread severe weather event Thursday from SW Ohio to much of W/N Pennsylvania, into central New York, where the SPC are considering to upgrade that area to a moderate risk.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SRN MO/NRN
AR...

...NEW ENGLAND/OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRINCIPAL AGREE THAT AN EARLY DAY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS UPSTATE NY
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD PROVE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CORRIDOR
OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ATTENDANT SFC LOW. GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/SFC LOW AS IT
SPREADS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ALLOWS FOR A MORE NWD EXTENSION OF
TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF SRN ME THAN THE NAM. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE SOME HAIL BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THURSDAY WILL OCCUR
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES MAY
SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S BY 18Z ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...LIKELY AS
FAR NE AS WRN PA WITH NEAR 90 POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF WRN NY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE ATTAINED WITH
THIS INTENSE HEATING AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT THAT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...500 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
40-50KT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY AND ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE
AS CONVECTION MATURES. AS A RESULT THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE COMMON WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AN AREA FROM SRN OH
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN PA INTO CNTRL NY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

FARTHER SW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN IND/IL INTO SRN
MO WITHIN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30KT IS EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CERTAINLY ORGANIZE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WITHIN A FLOW REGIME THAT WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL LINE SEGMENTS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. LOWER SEVERE PROBS
WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OK/NWRN TX WHERE PW
VALUES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION FAVOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BUT THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME THUS WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBS.
My prediction:The first developing CV storm will be the low about to exit Africa. It will encounter shear and if it develops south it goes to bay of campeche, jamaica etc.  If it gets a bit higher in latitude it take a track toward bahamas, florida and gulf of m. Shear will keep it from becoming a big threat.
Here is the am Caribbean discussion from NCEP. Wave entering the Antilles over the weekend bringing organized convection to PR and other parts on Sunday.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
705 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WITH AXIS WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NORTH OF THIS AXIS...A WEAK TUTT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE TUTT ALOFT IS A SHALLOW FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT IT IS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN THIS PATTERN...THE PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW MOISTURE CONTENT VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT LOW LEVELS... EASTERLY TRADES PREVAIL...WITH 850 HPA WINDS OF 10-15KTS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TUTT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE...IS TO RETROGRESS INTO HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IN THIS PATTERN...UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 60 HRS...WITH MODELS SHOWING A STRONG CAP INVERSION AND LOW PWAT AMOUNTS. THIS IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...AS THE TUTT PULLS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INTENSIFIES...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. MODELS THEN AGREE ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CLUSTERING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATER OVER THE WEEKEND...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE AS A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THIS FEATURE AS IT ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY EVENING...AND EXPANDING INTO THE USVI/PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. DURING THAT PERIOD PWAT WILL PEAK AT 40-45MM...FAVORING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.


MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)


I don't care about the trough split that may happen next week.I want a decent C.V storm to track.
Here's a morning jam for the blog.

Link
Off to get some work done. See Yall later.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't care about the trough split that may happen next week.I want a decent C.V storm to track.


You want something big not a small disorganized system that takes forever to form. I agree a CV system is what this Daddy likes as well!
I don't care about the trough split that may happen next week.I want a decent C.V storm to track.

Same here. A long tracker makes you glued to computer.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


You want something big not a small disorganized system that takes forever to form. I agree a CV system is what this Daddy likes as well!
That wave off of Africa has a nice low with it and plenty of convection.I'm surprised the NHC hasn't picked up on this as it has been persistent for a while now.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That wave off of Africa has a nice low with it and plenty of convection.I'm surprised the NHC hasn't picked up on this as it has been persistent for a while now.


I give up with the NHC. I mean really 98L should have been Enresto last evening. This wave near the Cape Verde Islands is one to watch in my opinion as it could sneak up on people in the Leeward islands and PR next week.

Morning all. Can't stay long this morning as I have to leave fairly soon. But I note 98L wasn't able to get its act together. I didn't expect it to, given the amount of energy exhibited by that low to its SW.

So the hunt is still on for Ernesto. It's starting to look like it's going to be another wimpy Ernesto like '06...


What's that south of Nova Scotia? And is 98L next to what I'm seeing?
1631. ncstorm
I have been noticing that the GFS has been showing either a Low or strong area of vorticity right near bermuda in several runs..this may be the next area to watch for an invest..



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Ameister12:
There's going to be a potential windspread severe weather event Thursday from SW Ohio to much of W/N Pennsylvania, into central New York, where the SPC are considering to upgrade that area to a moderate risk.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SRN MO/NRN
AR...

...NEW ENGLAND/OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRINCIPAL AGREE THAT AN EARLY DAY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS UPSTATE NY
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD PROVE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CORRIDOR
OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ATTENDANT SFC LOW. GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/SFC LOW AS IT
SPREADS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ALLOWS FOR A MORE NWD EXTENSION OF
TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF SRN ME THAN THE NAM. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE SOME HAIL BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THURSDAY WILL OCCUR
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES MAY
SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S BY 18Z ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...LIKELY AS
FAR NE AS WRN PA WITH NEAR 90 POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF WRN NY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE ATTAINED WITH
THIS INTENSE HEATING AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT THAT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...500 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
40-50KT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY AND ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE
AS CONVECTION MATURES. AS A RESULT THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE COMMON WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AN AREA FROM SRN OH
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN PA INTO CNTRL NY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

FARTHER SW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN IND/IL INTO SRN
MO WITHIN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30KT IS EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CERTAINLY ORGANIZE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WITHIN A FLOW REGIME THAT WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL LINE SEGMENTS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. LOWER SEVERE PROBS
WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OK/NWRN TX WHERE PW
VALUES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION FAVOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BUT THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME THUS WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBS.

Think that area might expand? I am literally right outside of the 30% chance
1634. Grothar
I wanted to give a wave to everybody.