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July Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

It's mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 - 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August - September - October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 - 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.


Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It's been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we've already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific's season's sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season's sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. Patrap
2002. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
Exactly as I predicted in my blog 5 days ago. How do I know these things??

Experience probably.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


dis aint the epac.

thats 2-4 TCs?
no way
The GFS has been showing this similar scenario for a few runs now. I think we could see atleast one storm come from the trough sopilt.
In response to Levi's Poll: I like the plane. It is more clear for someone like me that is a novice. Plus...I just like the way it looks....
Fabio down to 100 mph.

EP, 06, 2012071518, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1178W, 85, 974, HU,
Up-close view of the Poland tornado.
15/1800 UTC 17.2N 117.8W T4.5/5.0 FABIO -- East Pacific
15/1800 UTC 15.8N 138.7W TOO WEAK EMILIA -- East Pacific
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 956.3mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.5 5.5


Image shows a nice shelf cloud during the late morning hours in Downtown Tallahassee, FL. This was forming as a result of a quickly moving yet feeble seabreeze outflow boundary. Pop up- Svevere storm threat (T ) increase over all of florida as a cold core of air aloft provides more energy, (-10 to -13 degrees C) or (5 degrees F). This simulates the Cold/Warm Clash in the midwest (although on a smaller scale.)

The worst storms during the next few days should shift to interior then drift towards W Coast of FL as seabreeze front collaspes w/o dinurnal support.

Storms moving in to Central Lee County in SWFL so I need to start monitoring for wind gusts/downbursts so I can report them to NWS Ruskin, FL

GTG
FM
Fabio is beginning to weaken.

2012. ncstorm
12z CMC





Quoting fmhurricane2009:


Image shows a nice shelf cloud during the late morning hours in Downtown Tallahassee, FL. This was forming as a result of a quickly moving yet feeble seabreeze outflow boundary. Pop up- Svevere storm threat (T ) increase over all of florida as a cold core of air aloft provides more energy, (-10 to -13 degrees C) or (5 degrees F). This simulates the Cold/Warm Clash in the midwest (although on a smaller scale.)

The worst storms during the next few days should shift to interior then drift towards W Coast of FL as seabreeze front collaspes w/o dinurnal support.

Storms moving in to Central Lee County in SWFL so I need to start monitoring for wind gusts/downbursts so I can report them to NWS Ruskin, FL

GTG
FM

(Credit: StormchaserWV

I don't know if this is tropoical or not
BLOG = DEAD

the end
Quoting fmhurricane2009:

Image shows a nice shelf cloud during the late morning hours in Downtown Tallahassee, FL. This was forming as a result of a quickly moving yet feeble seabreeze outflow boundary. Pop up- Svevere storm threat (T ) increase over all of florida as a cold core of air aloft provides more energy, (-10 to -13 degrees C) or (5 degrees F). This simulates the Cold/Warm Clash in the midwest (although on a smaller scale.)

The worst storms during the next few days should shift to interior then drift towards W Coast of FL as seabreeze front collaspes w/o dinurnal support.

Storms moving in to Central Lee County in SWFL so I need to start monitoring for wind gusts/downbursts so I can report them to NWS Ruskin, FL

GTG
FM


Yeah it looks like we are probably going to get slammed by strong to severe thunderstorms here in the Tampa Bay area later today. Atmospheric moisture is very high once again as usual and much more instability is moving into place. I got 7 inches of rain during this last week, I wouldn't be surprised to see that total go up a lot more today.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
BLOG = DEAD

the end

I don't like it when the blopg is dead, I can't think of anything to talk about. Maybe we will get a storm from the trough split later in the week.
The Slender game scared the crap out of me. I'm going to have nightmares from here on out lol.

Waves in the east Atlantic are emerging progressively stronger. It won't be long until we get our first Cape Verde storm of the season.

Quoting yoboi:
this rain made me cook a shrimp, crawfish, oyster,tasso and okra stew for this eve...fresh tomato and cucumbers on the side with potato salad...the smell is killing me..
and you live where ?
Well what do we have here...?

Quoting Civicane49:


That area east of Bermuda looks interesting.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well what do we have here...?


I was noticing that also.
It has weak 850 vort and low shear..



Quoting fmhurricane2009:

Image shows a nice shelf cloud during the late morning hours in Downtown Tallahassee, FL. This was forming as a result of a quickly moving yet feeble seabreeze outflow boundary. Pop up- Svevere storm threat (T ) increase over all of florida as a cold core of air aloft provides more energy, (-10 to -13 degrees C) or (5 degrees F). This simulates the Cold/Warm Clash in the midwest (although on a smaller scale.)

The worst storms during the next few days should shift to interior then drift towards W Coast of FL as seabreeze front collaspes w/o dinurnal support.

Storms moving in to Central Lee County in SWFL so I need to start monitoring for wind gusts/downbursts so I can report them to NWS Ruskin, FL

GTG
FM


Come on, that pics really in Italy... Isn't that leaning tower on the right? LOl.
Quoting yoboi:
this rain made me cook a shrimp, crawfish, oyster,tasso and okra stew for this eve...fresh tomato and cucumbers on the side with potato salad...the smell is killing me..


i got steak salad pasta salad and shrimps on the barbie! :)
Quoting lottotexas:
and you live where ?


gotta be Louisiana
Quoting TomTaylor:
Just woke up here on the west coast at 11:23

"Summertime and the living's easy"


lol...........bankers hours tom?
7-DAY FORECAST
This Afternoon A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tonight A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. East southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Sunny and hot, with a high near 94. Light and variable wind. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light southwest. Tuesday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. West wind 11 to 16 mph. Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 82. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Friday Sunny, with a high near 83. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Big time rain on the way for Alaska... Dry pretty much everywhere else though...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Big time rain on the way for Alaska... Dry pretty much everywhere else though...


Above normal temops for everyone but the opacific coast and Alaska.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I see something in the BOC.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I see something in the BOC.
A weak tropical wave
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well what do we have here...?

Yeah I was looking at that two.Convection has been consistent.
2041. beell
Quoting Levi32:
Thanks for the input on the graphic everyone. Sorry to invade the blog with that lol. I just needed some new pairs of eyes: been staring at the code for this for days now. It's a work in progress, but will be going live pretty soon.


What I'd really like to see is the dropsondes from the high-altitude flights plotted for all the standard levels.

Similar to this:



Can you get right on that?
(j/k)
Fabio has peaked, should begin to weaken
Quoting Patrap:


You know, I used to stare at Goats too.
I suppose there are some around trained in paranormal warfare. Never read the non-fiction book it was based on but the film version of The Men Who Stare at Goats is great. Funny, yet not so funny.
The west coast seabreeze pushed a little inland today and is now colliding with the stronger east coast seabreeze. Looks like more rain along the way for the coastline in a few hours.

Northern Lights in Duluth, Minnesota this morning taken by Chief Meteorologist Mark Tarello at KEYC News 12.

Quoting wxchaser97:
Fabio has peaked, should begin to weaken

I agree.
The eye has become cloud-filled.

Closeup view of West African waves.

ECMWF hinting at trough split mischief off the US East Coast at 192 hours, same as the GFS.


This morning's GGEM also showed trough split development by 192 hours.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF hinting at trough split mischief off the US East Coast at 192 hours, same as the GFS.


This morning's GGEM also showed trough split development by 192 hours.
Is that a tropical storm that is already out in the atlantic on on tropical?.
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FABIO HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW BREAKS OR DRY
SLOTS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE OF 85 KT. THE WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FABIO MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
AND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...AND
BRINGS FABIO BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3 WHEN IT
WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C. DISSIPATION IS NOW
SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

THE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW FABIO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE
RIGHT...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.4N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 18.0N 119.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 20.2N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 24.4N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 26.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...FABIO WEAKENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 118.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
Hurricane Fabio:

Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that a tropical storm that is already out in the atlantic on on tropical?.


That particular system is extra-tropical.
...FABIO WEAKENS A LITTLE...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 15
Location: 17.4°N 118.2°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

Two people killed in Houston today by lightning

Link
2061. beell
12Z GFS 500mb Vort at 192 hrs...

Quoting Civicane49:
The eye has become cloud-filled.





has i said be for is that all you no how too post? dont you how too post other things



there a lot of other things going on a round the word that has too do with the weather other then Fabio


not trying too be rude or any thing justing saying
WU seem a little bugey today
.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Closeup view of West African waves.


Getting more impressive.
2012:



2011:

Quoting Tazmanian:
WU seem a little bugey today
I have been having issues getting to the blog, I get an error message and have to refresh t get it to work.
1924 2 SW BRETON BAY ST. MARYS MD 3822 7675 WATERSPOUT REPORTED TO HAVE MOVED ONSHORE ALONG WINDY LN NEAR COLTONS POINT. FALLEN TREES DAMAGED HOMES AND CARS. WATERSPOUT WAS NOTED BY SEVERAL OBSERVERS.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
2012:



2011:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrhf_zgtmAg
8W:



I'm not entirely sure that's a TD.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Two people killed in Houston today by lightning

Link
17 people got hit today in my region at a rib fest everyone safe

heavy storms this afternoon
TD 8W

I'm Back!
I just returned from a stay in Crystal Beach - A small coastal town Parallel to Galveston.
The beach was a complete bummer though... 16 inches of rain kinda ruined the week of beach time that was planned... Out of the 7 days being there, we only got one partial sunny day... Houston got 30 inches total in some areas over the past 5 days...
High Island was flooding as we left this morning due to more continuous rain that came, and we ran into a large thunderstorm on I-10 that was cuasing flooding in low-laying areas of the Highway...
I'll post pictures of my stay in one comment here, and on my blog as well.


Storms Inbound
You know what the GFS is showing next week isn't to hard to accomplish..all depends on the shear.I remember how Bret and Cindy formed from the same frontal system.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
2012:



2011:

Not liking that TCHP in the N.W caribbean at all.Tropical system gets in there with favorable conditions and it's game over for somebody.
Eastern Atlantic:

Quoting Pirate999:


Come on, that pics really in Italy... Isn't that leaning tower on the right? LOl.

Huge rains just starting now/incoming over Lake Travis. So Thankful.
Quoting Civicane49:
Eastern Atlantic:


Impressive
Quoting redwagon:

Huge rains just starting now/incoming over Lake Travis. So Thankful.


Good... And you guys need it bad. How is the aquifer?
Quoting Civicane49:
Area where Bermuda is is impressive looking.

Welcome back hurricaneDean07.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NWRN THROUGH N CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152100Z - 152230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH AN 18Z SOUNDING FROM BISMARCK IS SUGGESTIVE OF
SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES...RELATIVELY
LOW MOISTURE VALUES AND MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE...OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL DATA INDICATE POTENTIALLY GREATER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AND IT APPEARS
THAT A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 22-23Z...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF MINOT. IF THIS OCCURS... VERTICAL SHEAR
BENEATH 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SIZABLE... AND SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
TORNADIC POTENTIAL...BUT THIS THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY SIZABLE
SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. LOCALLY STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT...WITH LARGE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

Yeah it's impressive but it'll likely die off.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Area where Bermuda is is impressive looking.

Welcome back hurricaneDean07.


Quoting redwagon:

Huge rains just starting now/incoming over Lake Travis. So Thankful.


Hopefully that Lake gets filled back up
NAO(NEGATIVE)



The forecast says will stay negative
Quoting Pirate999:


Good... And you guys need it bad. How is the aquifer?

We need 20" of rain - at once, with no evap - to reload our Edwards Aquifer and Highland Lakes. We've been getting an inch here, three there, over the last week so cumulatively, which nixed the fire danger. We need a good solid TS --OR-- a thick, sustained plume of moisture from EPAC and some fronts who know what to do with it.
Quoting stormchaser19:
NAO(NEGATIVE)



The forecast says will stay negative
Expect less SAL to come off the coast.Thus watch for development in the next week or two.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Expect less SAL to come off the coast.Thus watch for development in the next week or two.

Did someone say SAL:
TD 08W

Max forecasted winds are 45mph gusting to 60mph.
How the heck is it possible for nearly this entire county to be avoided by thunderstorms on such an active day? And hear I thought we going to slammed in Pinellas like we did earlier this week. I guess the only thing predictable about weather is it's unpredictability.
2104. yoboi
Quoting lottotexas:
and you live where ?



louisiana
Quoting Jedkins01:
How the heck is it possible for nearly this entire county to be avoided by thunderstorms on such an active day? And hear I thought we going to slammed in Pinellas like we did earlier this week. I guess the only thing predictable about weather is it's unpredictability.


I live in Palm Harbor and getting a really nice storm.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Interesting track.
N. and S. Korea NEED need the rain. But not potential flooding.
will be interesting the predictions of NOAA and CSU in August about the numbers of storms and hurricanes.

In june NOAA 9-15 storms , 4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 majors
CSU 13 storms , 5 hurricanes and 2 majors


4 storms- 1 huricane-0 majors, activity until now

Quoting wxchaser97:

Did someone say SAL:
It should weaken some since the high won't be as strong.
2109. LargoFl
......................................oh boy, we are going to get whacked big time along the gulf here
Quoting stormchaser19:
will be interesting the predictions of NOAA and CSU in August about the numbers of storms and hurricanes.

In june NOAA 9-15 storms , 4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 majors
CSU 13 storms , 5 hurricanes and 2 majors


4 storms- 1 huricane-0 majors, activity until now


Things should get active again with either a trough split storm or a cv storm in a few weeks.
2111. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
513 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FLC017-053-152215-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0047.120715T2113Z-120715T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HERNANDO FL-CITRUS FL-
513 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN CITRUS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 513 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2876 8251 2876 8230 2858 8230 2858 8251

$$
2112. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
512 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FLC081-152215-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0046.120715T2112Z-120715T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MANATEE FL-
512 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 512 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2757 8237 2759 8223 2745 8223 2745 8238

$$
2113. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
445 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FLZ042-048-049-051-055-152130-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
445 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MANATEE...CENTRAL
PASCO...CITRUS...HERNANDO AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CITRUS HILLS TO
PLANT CITY AIRPORT TO 6 MILES EAST OF LAKE MANATEE STATE PARK...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BEVERLY HILLS TO PLANT CITY TO 21 MILES
EAST OF BRADENTON...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT BEVERLY
HILLS...HEATHERWOOD...LAKE LINDSEY...BLOOMINGDALE...VALRICO...
PARRISH...BRADENTON...LUTZ...TEMPLE TERRACE...GIBSONTON...
BROOKSVILLE...LAND O LAKES...AND SAN ANTONIO...UNTIL 530 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 217 AND 293.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2889 8270 2896 8273 2894 8240 2794 8208
2739 8219 2742 8260 2766 8256 2783 8241
2783 8243 2783 8244 2789 8241 2792 8248
2781 8247 2782 8252 2798 8249 2869 8268
2872 8273 2875 8270 2880 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 095DEG 12KT 2886 8247 2795 8218
2749 8228

$$
I think the east Pac is about to slow down and the CV seas will start up in about a week to 10 days just a gut feeling!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
It should weaken some since the high won't be as strong.
Yes, and the waves are getting stronger but it should take a few weeks to get a system going.
2116. LargoFl
Quoting wxchaser97:
Yes, and the waves are getting stronger but it should take a few weeks to get a system going.
I think we'll see a cape verde in about two weeks.
8W

Eastern Atlantic:

2120. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
538 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FLZ051-055-152215-
HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
538 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MANATEE AND SOUTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR FORT LONESOME...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF FISH
HAWK...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT FORT
LONESOME...DUETTE...SUN CITY CENTER...RUSKIN...APOLLO BEACH...
PARRISH...AND WIMAUMA...UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 229 AND 246.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2769 8254 2779 8243 2781 8245 2782 8241
2784 8241 2783 8244 2785 8246 2786 8240
2775 8207 2757 8210 2755 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 099DEG 7KT 2768 8218

$$
2121. LargoFl
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think we'll see a cape verde in about two weeks.


Nearly to july 25th i think so, but the wind shear need to slow down a little and , the SAL also
2124. LargoFl
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Analysis

PA getting interesting... pretty good line of storms going through central PA and i just got hit by an interesting storm......alot of lightning....

PAC037-093-097-107-109-152245-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0111.120715T2148Z-120715T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
548 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COLUMBIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN MONTOUR COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 544 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
JERSEYTOWN TO SNYDERTOWN TO FREMONT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
KNOEBELS GROVE AND CATAWISSA...
FERNDALE AND NUMIDIA...
SHUMANS AND MIFFLINVILLE...
BERWICK AND SCOTCH VALLEY...
VALLEY VIEW AND NUREMBURG...
SHEPPTON AND SHENANDOAH...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 222 AND 247...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110
AND 139.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11...ROUTE
11/15...ROUTE 209...ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD 61...STATE ROAD 309.
2127. ncstorm
The area near Florida might just become a player..you never know

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE SPLITS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MON. THIS WILL ALLOW A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BRUSH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS IT MOVES BY TO OUR N. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ON MON WILL LINGER AND ACTUALLY BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED AS WE MOVE INTO TUE. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL TRANSITION TO A SW/WSW FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES WITH THIS FLOW DEEPENING WITH TIME. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR/AT THE COAST.

ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE MID-LEVEL SWIRL OFF THE
SE COAST...ABOUT 200 MILES E OF SAV AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL INLAND
ACROSS N FL/GA AND SOUTHERN SC ON MON. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE
A VERY WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION AND SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD AND UP THE COAST DURING MON...

BEFORE BECOMING ILL-DEFINED.



2128. ncstorm
.
2129. LargoFl
2130. ncstorm
whats going on with the blog?..my posts arent showing up..sorry for the double posts..
2131. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:
whats going on with the blog?..my posts arent showing up..sorry for the double posts..
..yes also having alot of trouble posting as well, then again the whole web seems to have slowed down..might be the effects of that solar CME, we'll see
2132. yoboi
the blog is messed up...
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think we'll see a cape verde in about two weeks.

I think 2-3 weeks since enviorment issues need to be worked out. A home-born storm is possible later this week. It could/ should be an appitizer to a cv storm and give us something to track in our basin.
2135. yoboi
doom shield activated.....
2136. LargoFl
AY AREA --
A steady line of thunderstorms is moving from Polk County into the coastal Bay area along the summer sea breeze Sunday afternoon.

The storms will move to the west and sweep over the coastal counties into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered storms have also popped up away from the line's leading edge.
Drier air moved through Saturday, but it shifted west to the Bay area. Moisture has been allowed to move back into the region and it will stick around for the next few days.

Most of the storms aren't strong, but are producing heavy rain. They should wind down by Sunday night around 10 p.m., but a scattered storm is possible throughout the night.

Monday is expected to be similar to Sunday's conditions, with a 60 percent chance of rain.
2137. LargoFl
Quoting yoboi:
doom shield activated.....
..people laughed yesterday
What is the deal with the area east of Bermuda!!
Quoting ncstorm:
whats going on with the blog?..my posts arent showing up..sorry for the double posts..
I'm having problems as well. When I refresh or post around half the time I get an error message and have to keep on refreshing until it fixes itself. Also unrelated the blog has been pretty slow again today.
2140. ncstorm
Quoting wxchaser97:
I'm having problems as well. When I refresh or post around half the time I get an error message and have to keep on refreshing until it fixes itself. Also unrelated the blog has been pretty slow again today.


Yeah I got error messages as well..

Largo, lets hope not..
2143. ncstorm
18z GFS..the midlevel swirl off the SE coast





starting to show up on the models..

Northwest Subtropical Atlantic ASCAT combined image:

Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah I got error messages as well..

Largo, lets hope not..
Also it takes 1-2 minutes instead of a few seconds for my comments to appear. Are you having this issue as well ncstorm? My o and p key problem is due to maple syruop getting between the 2 keys.
Full Globe ASCAT Combined:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152154Z - 152300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS. MOST OF THE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS SRN AZ WITH AN INCREASING
TREND EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT
THE REGION DEPICT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S...SUPPORTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE NEAR
1500 J/KG. MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 6-7 KFT...AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /700-500 MEAN RH APPROX 70 PERCENT/ WILL PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF WET MICROBURST /EVIDENCED BY DCAPE
VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG/. MOST OF THESE MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONALLY...VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8
INCH PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCH/HOUR POSSIBLE.
2148. LargoFl
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 15 2046 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
2149. ncstorm
Quoting wxchaser97:
Also it takes 1-2 minutes instead of a few seconds for my comments to appear. Are you having this issue as well ncstorm? My o and p key problem is due to maple syruop getting between the 2 keys.


LOL..I thought it was my hotpocket issue (joke on the blog) but yeah, it takes several seconds for it show up..
Quoting ncstorm:
18z GFS..the midlevel swirl off the SE coast





starting to show up on the models..

Do they do anything with the blob near Bermuda?.
popsted a comment 1 minute ago, still not there.
156 hrs
2153. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 15 2046 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
..............the worst should be over by morning i hope..gee a k-6 is knida strong huh.................2012-07-15 11:12 Geomagnetic Storm Underway

G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity is now occurring as a result of the ongoing coronal mass ejection effects. No further significant activity has occured, and while Region 1520 has become less of a threat, it still has the potential for further activity. Stay tuned for updates.
2154. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Do they do anything with the blob near Bermuda?.


No I didnt see anything on the GFS but you know that dont mean anything..models miss systems many times
gardening=over

just got caught in a sudden rain, didnt see the cloud with the rain before it started pouring but it was partly cloudy all around and then it started pouring over me where it was sunny before.

So sorry guys, im bak....
Quoting wxchaser97:
3 to 2 storms off of the same frontal system..The GFS is having a field day
2157. ncstorm
Quoting wxchaser97:
popsted a comment 1 minute ago, still not there.
156 hrs


FOUR!!!..
Quoting wxchaser97:
popsted a comment 1 minute ago, still not there.
156 hrs


is that the 5th one over MS?
Are we racing the EPAC or something?
2159. Patrap
www.solarham.net


Pine City, Minnesota Aurora (Early Sunday) - by Carlton McMillan K5CJM

VHF Aurora 2 meter (144mhz) and 6 meter (50mhz) is currently full of aurora signals here in Ontario, Canada. If you are high in latitude, time to turn the yagis north.
Would all of these be TS's because if so then wow 4 of em
2162. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
3 to 2 storms off of the same frontal system..The GFS is having a field day


never seen that happen before but if it did?? but the crazy part of that is that the GFS is has been consistently showing 3 systems forming off the east coast
2163. LargoFl
......................................GT you ok over there?
2164. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
www.solarham.net


VHF Aurora 2 meter (144mhz) and 6 meter (50mhz) is currently full of aurora signals here in Ontario, Canada. If you are high in latitude, time to turn the yagis north.

Pine City, Minnesota Aurora (Early Sunday) - by Carlton McMillan K5CJM
..amazing this solar storm is, man i wish we could see THAT here in florida tonight..must be beautiful
i made a comment 3 minutes ago and it aint there yet.....
how long for this one to show up?
Quoting washingtonian115:
3 to 2 storms off of the same frontal system..The GFS is having a field day
Quoting ncstorm:


FOUR!!!..

Easy though... We don't if...
A. any of those are strong enough to be Ernesto.
B. they are (sub)tropical or non tropical.
Geomagnetic storming has kicked back up to moderate levels:

2168. LargoFl
people all over the web are having trouble like we are..this from one site..............................GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong geomagnetic storm is in progress as Earth's magnetic field reverberates from a CME strike on July 14th. At first the CME's impact seemed relatively weak, but conditions in the wake of the CME have become stormy. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say that satellites in geosynchronous orbit may have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma. Also, Northern Lights have appeared in the United States as far south as California, Utah and Nebraska. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

Brad Goldpaint sends this picture of the auroras reflecting from Sparks Lake in central Oregon:

Meanwhile in the southern hemisphere, the aurora australis has been sighted in New Zealand, Australia, and directly above the South Pole itself.

Note: Extremely high levels of web traffic are slowing the response of our Realtime Photo Gallery, below. We are working to solve the problem--not only for now, but also for future high-traffic storms. Go ahead and click on the link. If you can't see the pictures right away, please return later today and try again
Quoting LargoFl:
..amazing this solar storm is, man i wish we could see THAT here in florida tonight..must be beautiful


if you want to see that in FL, prepare for massive blackouts and power surges...
Quoting wxchaser97:
Would all of these be TS's because if so then wow 4 of em
We would certainly catch up to the east pacific in terms of named storms.Lol.
Quoting ncstorm:


never seen that happen before but if it did?? but the crazy part of that is that the GFS is has been consistently showing 3 systems forming off the east coast
I know last year Bret and Cindy formed from the same frontal system.
Quoting LargoFl:
people all over the web are having trouble like we are..this from one site..............................GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong geomagnetic storm is in progress as Earth's magnetic field reverberates from a CME strike on July 14th. At first the CME's impact seemed relatively weak, but conditions in the wake of the CME have become stormy. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say that satellites in geosynchronous orbit may have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma. Also, Northern Lights have appeared in the United States as far south as California, Utah and Nebraska. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

Brad Goldpaint sends this picture of the auroras reflecting from Sparks Lake in central Oregon:

Meanwhile in the southern hemisphere, the aurora australis has been sighted in New Zealand, Australia, and directly above the South Pole itself.

Note: Extremely high levels of web traffic are slowing the response of our Realtime Photo Gallery, below. We are working to solve the problem--not only for now, but also for future high-traffic storms. Go ahead and click on the link. If you can't see the pictures right away, please return later today and try again



im pretty sure thats just for their site from the solar info they have
Quoting wxchaser97:
Would all of these be TS's because if so then wow 4 of em


and some nice vort over GA and another low behind that, and you have 6 TCs.....

GFS = High off its success
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



im pretty sure thats just for their site from the solar info they have

I think you're right... It's very unlikely the solar storm is disrupting WU... Something sure is though, lol... Blog definitely hasn't been working right.
Quoting washingtonian115:
3 to 2 storms off of the same frontal system..The GFS is having a field day
Quoting ncstorm:


FOUR!!!..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is that the 5th one over MS?
Are we racing the EPAC or something?
Quoting ncstorm:


never seen that happen before but if it did?? but the crazy part of that is that the GFS is has been consistently showing 3 systems forming off the east coast
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Easy though... We don't if...
A. any of those are strong enough to be Ernesto.
B. they are (sub)tropical or non tropical.

The scary part is the GFS showing this run for run for a while now. MAweatherboy1 you brought up good questins there. We don't know until it happens but it would be something if it did. We would all be busy tracking multiple storms at once.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
i made a comment 3 minutes ago and it aint there yet.....
how long for this one to show up?

Blessed Radio Silence.... so peaceful when I can't see your posts.
0Z GFS showed 2+ named storms, 06Z showed 2+ named storms, 12Z showed 2+ named storms, and the 18Z GFS showed 2+ named storms.
Quoting wxchaser97:

The scary part is the GFS showing this run for run for a while now. MAweatherboy1 you brought up good questins there. We don't know until it happens but it would be something if it did. We would all be busy tracking multiple storms at once.


the gfs is probably feeding back each low it forms and starting a new one, and having more feed back, etc, till we have that mess out there
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Easy though... We don't if...
A. any of those are strong enough to be Ernesto.
B. they are (sub)tropical or non tropical.
There is a chance we could have both those possibilities..but look at the sst off of the east coast..
Quoting redwagon:

Blessed Radio Silence.... so peaceful when I can't see your posts.


radio silence?
me?
Quoting wxchaser97:

The scary part is the GFS showing this run for run for a while now. MAweatherboy1 you brought up good questins there. We don't know until it happens but it would be something if it did. We would all be busy tracking multiple storms at once.

I would love it if we saw Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, and Helene off the same front if that is indeed what the GFS is showing. Talk about inflating the season numbers though if that happened.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
i made a comment 3 minutes ago and it aint there yet.....
how long for this one to show up?
I have been having the same issue combined with an error message.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
0Z GFS showed 2+ named storms, 06Z showed 2+ named storms, 12Z showed 2+ named storms, and the 18Z GFS showed 2+ named storms.


at least 2.
but we will see.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
0Z GFS showed 2+ named storms, 06Z showed 2+ named storms, 12Z showed 2+ named storms, and the 18Z GFS showed 2+ named storms.
This reminds me of the time the GFS was very consistent with Debby.It just wouldn't give up.And it paid off.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I would love it if we saw Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, and Helene off the same front if that is indeed what the GFS is showing. Talk about inflating the season numbers though if that happened.
What about me, is there a chance I'm apart of this or am I a cv storm(Isaac).
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


radio silence?
me?

For a whole three minutes. It was like a day at the spa.
East coast shear:

2187. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



im pretty sure thats just for their site from the solar info they have
..yes the solar sites are jamming with traffic
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think you're right... It's very unlikely the solar storm is disrupting WU... Something sure is though, lol... Blog definitely hasn't been working right.
Quoting wxchaser97:

The scary part is the GFS showing this run for run for a while now. MAweatherboy1 you brought up good questins there. We don't know until it happens but it would be something if it did. We would all be busy tracking multiple storms at once.


when the GFS is consistent with something, is for one reason with debby we know what happened
Quoting wxchaser97:
What about me, is there a chance I'm apart of this or am I a cv storm(Isaac).
Awww yeah baby :)!!!.Isaac would be a beautiful storm to track.
2190. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


if you want to see that in FL, prepare for massive blackouts and power surges...
..yes if anything happens its going to be tonight when its the strongest the sites say..hope not gee
2191. LargoFl
..........................................this from noaa...i wonder if a geomagnetic storm affects weather at all?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the gfs is probably feeding back each low it forms and starting a new one, and having more feed back, etc, till we have that mess out there
If the GFS scenario polayed out then a) there would be cooler ssts and higher rip current threat for awhile, b) lots of storms going over the same area, c) a fun time on the blog.
This opotential set up looks like trainning thunderstorms exceopt ver water and the t-storms are TS.
Quoting redwagon:

For a whole three minutes. It was like a day at the spa.


Well isnt it just too bad it ended :(
2194. beell
"spurious vorticity" in the GFS anyone?
Cloud tops continuing to warm on Fabio:

Quoting jrweatherman:


I live in Palm Harbor and getting a really nice storm.

Keep in mind that I said NEARLY the entire county, not the entire county ;)
2197. LargoFl
..coming down in buckets here now
2198. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
604 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FLC057-152300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0048.120715T2204Z-120715T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-
604 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 605 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2778 8230 2778 8207 2766 8207 2766 8230

$$
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Well isnt it just too bad it ended :(

As we all know hurricane Igor was later retired..but it's like nature was purposely holding off on the name till the right(unfortunately for Newfoundland and Bermuda) conditions and steering patterns set up....T.D 2 could have became Bonnie and T.D five could have became Earl..So that means Igor would have been Fiona which was a weak sheared tropical system...Mmm.
Quoting LargoFl:
..coming down in buckets here now


I don't know about coming down in buckets, it's just steady stratiform rain, I'd rather just have it be sunny, this stuff is boring, I was expecting some big thunderstorms, since we didn't get them I'd rather have sun than overcast with light to moderate rain lol.
Quoting Jedkins01:

Keep in mind that I said NEARLY the entire county, not the entire county ;)


Action switches to the east coast tomorrow.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Action switches to the east coast tomorrow.


I'm really not buying that, I would think it will be uniform coverage setup, in other words, equal coverage on both sides.
2205. LargoFl
Some U.S. residents may have a rare chance to see the aurora borealis, more commonly known as the northern lights, late tonight and into early Wednesday morning.

While the best viewing will be across Canada, including Edmonton and Winnipeg, the lights will be visible in parts of Alaska. The lights will also be visible in Portland, Ontario, Canada, which means they could be seen in upstate New York.

AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker said it will be cloudy along the St. Lawrence River on New York's northern border, while hit-or-miss showers could occur in southern New England in the early evening.

The lights may also be seen as far south as Madison, Wis., and Lansing, Mich. Walker said that this corridor will also be partly cloudy with some hit-or-miss storms.
2206. LargoFl
2207. LargoFl
....................................Tampa Bay area 7-day
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
East coast shear:

Where do you get that map and opthers like it?
Quoting LargoFl:
Some U.S. residents may have a rare chance to see the aurora borealis, more commonly known as the northern lights, late tonight and into early Wednesday morning.

While the best viewing will be across Canada, including Edmonton and Winnipeg, the lights will be visible in parts of Alaska. The lights will also be visible in Portland, Ontario, Canada, which means they could be seen in upstate New York.

AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker said it will be cloudy along the St. Lawrence River on New York's northern border, while hit-or-miss showers could occur in southern New England in the early evening.

The lights may also be seen as far south as Madison, Wis., and Lansing, Mich. Walker said that this corridor will also be partly cloudy with some hit-or-miss storms.
i will be watchin waitin to see what comes

Detroit area 7 day forecast from wxyz in Detroit.
The "I" storms have been on a roll these past few years.Will Isaac follow that path?.
Quoting LargoFl:
Some U.S. residents may have a rare chance to see the aurora borealis, more commonly known as the northern lights, late tonight and into early Wednesday morning.

While the best viewing will be across Canada, including Edmonton and Winnipeg, the lights will be visible in parts of Alaska. The lights will also be visible in Portland, Ontario, Canada, which means they could be seen in upstate New York.

AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker said it will be cloudy along the St. Lawrence River on New York's northern border, while hit-or-miss showers could occur in southern New England in the early evening.

The lights may also be seen as far south as Madison, Wis., and Lansing, Mich. Walker said that this corridor will also be partly cloudy with some hit-or-miss storms.

Anything for the Detroit metro area?
Quoting washingtonian115:
The "I" storms have been on a roll these past few years.Will Isaac follow that path?.
Maybe,maybe not
I just want to say also if bret and Cindy were born of the same front a similar situation can happen and we can have Ernesto and florence out of it.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST OF MINOT NORTH
DAKOTA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).Link
Quoting PedleyCA:
Emilia and Fabio



Emilia is gone
Gotta go for a little while.
2221. 7544
Quoting ncstorm:


FOUR!!!..


and all going nowhere lol
Quoting wxchaser97:
Where do you get that map and opthers like it?

Here.
Quoting Tazmanian:



Emilia is gone


OK, So, what is that at 15N/140W?
2224. JLPR2
Quoting ncstorm:


FOUR!!!..


I would love to see that. I wish at least one would reach cane strength. XD
2225. JLPR2
Quoting 7544:


and all going nowhere lol


That's the best part. :D
Quoting PedleyCA:


OK, So, what is that at 15N/140W?




likey the lift overe of EX Emilia
Quoting JLPR2:


I would love to see that. I wish at least one would reach cane strength. XD
Chris reached Cane strength..so you never know XD.


The blob near Bermuda continues to look better... Maybe a 10% yellow next TWO by the NHC?
2229. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
Chris reached Cane strength..so you never know XD.


And Chris was a really pretty category one.
I'm tired of seeing this!!!!!!!!




Quoting WxGeekVA:


The blob near Bermuda continues to look better... Maybe a 10% yellow next TWO by the NHC?
I'm surprised they didn't have it mentioned in their discussion.
Quoting JLPR2:


And Chris was a really pretty category one.
I know.A really beautiful storm he was.Such a delight to track :).
2232. JLPR2
Ex-Daniel is looking somewhat alive.
Quoting Tazmanian:




likey the lift overe of EX Emilia


That's kind of nit-picky..... OK, EX....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


The blob near Bermuda continues to look better... Maybe a 10% yellow next TWO by the NHC?

Negative.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
2235. beell
Quoting allancalderini:
I just want to say also if bret and Cindy were born of the same front a similar situation can happen and we can have Ernesto and florence out of it.


Good point, allancalderini.
Quoting JLPR2:
Ex-Daniel is looking somewhat alive.


Is approaching the dateline which divides the CPAC from WPAC.
Quoting beell:


Good point, allancalderini.
I brought it up first...Lol.

I told ja'll that Daniel is like the Karin of the east pacific.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Negative.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


.... maybe if it stays persistent...

Who am I kidding, I'm just in depression from the lack of a storm.
What kind of tropical depression is this?

2240. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is approaching the dateline which divides the CPAC from WPAC.


If it reaches the Wpacific at this state it might try to revive over there. That would be an interesting accomplishment.
Quoting JLPR2:


And Chris was a really pretty category one.

Yeah...I almost want to shed a tear.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


.... maybe if it stays persistent...

Who am I kidding, I'm just in depression from the lack of a storm.
If GFS is correct could be tracking for named storms at the same time next week.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
What kind of tropical depression is this?



An ugly one.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
What kind of tropical depression is this?


The kind that shouldn't have been initiated on yet.
2245. JLPR2
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
What kind of tropical depression is this?



To me it looks good, the long tail/ feeder band is a little weird.


Compare the intensity of that convection to Fabio's.



Ha! Poor Fabio is hitting the cold.
Stop messing with that tropical depression it brudiful(lololololol)
bo-ring...maybe Dr. Masters should go on vacation.
2248. ncstorm


500mb Vorticity Map
Quoting JLPR2:


If it reaches the Wpacific at this state it might try to revive over there. That would be an interesting accomplishment.


That is a good point. It's all uphill temperature wise from where he is now....
This West Pac depression is (hopefully) going to provide some relief to a very drought stricken Korean peninsula...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This West Pac depression is (hopefully) going to provide some relief to a very drought stricken Korean peninsula...


really? isn't this their monsoon season? or end of it?

wow, I wasn't aware of that; here's a story link about the Korean drought:
Link Korean Drought Worst In A Century For North And South Korea


06/26/12 09:28 PM ET
Quoting Chicklit:

really? isn't this their monsoon season? or end of it?

Worst drought in a century.

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
I brought it up first...Lol.

I told ja'll that Daniel is like the Karin of the east pacific.
karin???
Quoting ncstorm:


500mb Vorticity Map
Good vorticity off of Florida and I see the blob near Bermuda has some as well.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I brought it up first...Lol.

I told ja'll that Daniel is like the Karin of the east pacific.
karin???
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This West Pac depression is (hopefully) going to provide some relief to a very drought stricken Korean peninsula...

It better go to Korea and not to Japan they had serious flooding there.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 958.3mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.0 5.0

Quoting allancalderini:
karin???It better go to Korea and not to Japan they had serious flooding there.
Yes the remnants of Karin just wouldn't dissipate.Just like Daniel.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


.... maybe if it stays persistent...

Who am I kidding, I'm just in depression from the lack of a storm.

Come play in the rain in Austin!

15/2101 UTC 23.2N 137.8E T1.5/1.5 08W -- West Pacific
ULL to the left of me, ULL to the right of me, here I am stuck in the middle...

Quoting wxchaser97:
Both positive factors for T.C formation.Thank goodness we don't have a disturbance in there.
Has anything like the GFS solution happened before?
Judging by the shear on this map I made by stitching together the Epac and Wpac CIMSS shear products, the remnants of Daniel don't have a terrible environment in front of them. He's actually in the worst shear he'll be in right now. He may yet have a chance.



Click for full size
Quoting JLPR2:
Ex-Daniel is looking somewhat alive.

He's a zombie?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes the remnants of Karin just wouldn't dissipate.Just like Daniel.
you mean karen right???

"One person has been killed and at least 10 others injured during a series of freak tornadoes in northern and western Poland."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18851510

Whatever next?
Tornadoes in Poland,
Floods in Europe,
Fires all over the place,
Ice melting like its in the microwave.
Northern lights in the southern latitudes,
Wait with patience as the Atlantic wont be quiet much longer, then you wont be able to get a word in edge ways on here.
Oh its only about 105/F here today in southern Spain!
Usual warnings posted.
We should do a poll on the Olympic this that's going to clog up everything at the end of the month. It could be the wettest Olympics ever!
Quoting PlazaRed:

"One person has been killed and at least 10 others injured during a series of freak tornadoes in northern and western Poland."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18851510

Whatever next?
Tornadoes in Poland,
Floods in Europe,
Fires all over the place,
Ice melting like its in the microwave.
Northern lights in the southern latitudes,
Wait with patience as the Atlantic wont be quiet much longer, then you wont be able to get a word in edge ways on here.
Oh its only about 105/F here today in southern Spain!
Usual warnings posted.
We should do a poll on the Olympic this that's going to clog up everything at the end of the month. It could be the wettest Olympics ever!

A cat5 headed for the US is what is next and my TV is now getting messed up by something, stupid solar storm.
I see the wave off of Africa has some chance on the TCFP.
Another one bites the dust
Quoting wxchaser97:

A cat5 headed for the US is what is next and my TV is now getting messed up by something.

You might just be right on that one but I'll leave it to the experts on your side of the Atlantic and in Alaska to decide where and when but I would nor rule it out!
Take a long look at that high over the mid Atlantic and you cant help noticing that the firing line is the mid Caribbean and into the GOM.
Just guessing of course but! Stanger things have happened at sea?
Quoting PlazaRed:

"One person has been killed and at least 10 others injured during a series of freak tornadoes in northern and western Poland."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18851510

Whatever next?
Tornadoes in Poland,
Floods in Europe,
Fires all over the place,
Ice melting like its in the microwave.
Northern lights in the southern latitudes,
Wait with patience as the Atlantic wont be quiet much longer, then you wont be able to get a word in edge ways on here.
Oh its only about 105/F here today in southern Spain!
Usual warnings posted.
We should do a poll on the Olympic this that's going to clog up everything at the end of the month. It could be the wettest Olympics ever!
RedPlaza I know right.With all these disasters the Atlantic has me worried.Especially the gulf where shear has been low and instability high.
2279. Grothar
Nice spin.

Water supplies pass tipping point

...
Even though there%u2019s been little talk of drought in San Diego in recent months, runoff into the Colorado%u2019s Lake Powell this year is about 46 percent of average %u2014 the third lowest since 1963. Deliveries to cities and farms aren%u2019t immediately threatened because abundant snow two winters ago provided a respite from dry conditions that have dominated the basin since 1999.

But on every inhabited continent, clean water is getting harder to find and threats to civilization grow more stark as the global population zooms past 7 billion. The combination is having physical repercussions, such as shrinking seas, dying rivers and sinking land. They are reminders that money and ingenuity can%u2019t defy the laws of nature forever.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/jul/14/specia l-report-water-supplies-reach-tipping-point/
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Judging by the shear on this map I made by stitching together the Epac and Wpac CIMSS shear products, the remnants of Daniel don't have a terrible environment in front of them. He's actually in the worst shear he'll be in right now. He may yet have a chance.



Click for full size

That aggressive spin right off GA/SC looks like it wants mischief.
Holler Gro.Did you see the GFS crazy model run.
2285. bappit
Quoting Grothar:
Nice spin.


UUUL
Quoting wxchaser97:
That wave has good vorticity.
2287. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
ULL to the left of me, ULL to the right of me, here I am stuck in the middle...



.
Quoting Grothar:
Nice spin.


Hey Gro, I think it is a ULL and there is one ENE of FL as well.
Quoting Grothar:
Nice spin.


Which nice spin? I see three nice spins in that image.
2292. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
ULL to the left of me, ULL to the right of me, here I am stuck in the middle...




Just as long as they haven't volley'd and thunder'd, you should be OK. I wonder what the other 599 people are seeing.
2294. Grothar
testing.
June rainfall in FL was in the tope 5 wettest in areasLink
Can anyone see my comment?.
Impressive spin on this wave. Dry air and subsidence should keep it from developing.

ECMWF keeps the LL vort around for a few days.

Quoting washingtonian115:
RedPlaza I know right.With all these disasters the Atlantic has me worried.Especially the gulf where shear has been low and instability high.

Logic, of which humanity has seemed to have forgotten points to the fact that if you place a planet in a state of metamorphic transience it will go through a certain amount of radical changes, in order to adapt to a semblance of normality.
Being generally insensitive to the goings on of a scattered amount of life forms seething about on its surface it will automatically compensate for any anomalies that should appear.
Having said those seemingly pointless words, what we might have to cope with is "planetary reaction," to human inaction's!
I dont know, I'm only an engineer who is used to watching things going wrong!Usually we can mend them but this time I'm not too sure!
Interesting that we have a mess over the Shael which is massive and its only Mid July.
Love that Avatar.
I posted 2 comments a couple minutes ago and yet nothing.
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/jul/14/specia l-report-water-supplies-reach-tipping-point/



"It used to be that our agreements were to share the water," Scott said. "Now we are trying to figure out how we are going to share the shortage."

Quoting PlazaRed:

"One person has been killed and at least 10 others injured during a series of freak tornadoes in northern and western Poland."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18851510

Whatever next?
Tornadoes in Poland,
Floods in Europe,
Fires all over the place,
Ice melting like its in the microwave.
Northern lights in the southern latitudes,
Wait with patience as the Atlantic wont be quiet much longer, then you wont be able to get a word in edge ways on here.
Oh its only about 105/F here today in southern Spain!
Usual warnings posted.
We should do a poll on the Olympic this that's going to clog up everything at the end of the month. It could be the wettest Olympics ever!
Don't forget the hugely abnormal three-day rainfall in Japan (up to 3.5" per hour) that has led to dozens of deaths and the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of residents. And speaking of the ice melting as though it's in a microwave: this past Wednesday, the recorded temperature at the Summit Camp weather station in Greenland reached 36 degrees. That may not sound like much, but that station sits smack in the middle of Greenland's ice cap at an altitude of 10,500 feet.
Just wanted to get an opinion out of you guys first. Would y'all view my daily Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook if I started making one? It would in no way be affiliated with the National Hurricane Center or any other government organization and would highlight my thoughts on a particular disturbance.

Big rain in SE FL now
WU Woooooo
Good thing a cv storm shouldn't form in the next week or so:

The high would push it into us.
2311. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
Holler Gro.Did you see the GFS crazy model run.


No,I haven't. Which one?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just wanted to get an opinion out of you guys first. Would y'all view my daily Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook if I started making one? It would in no way be affiliated with the National Hurricane Center or any other government organization and would highlight my thoughts on a particular disturbance.

Here's an example.



I like it a lot. Go for it.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Water supplies pass tipping point

...
Even though there’s been little talk of drought in San Diego in recent months, runoff into the Colorado’s Lake Powell this year is about 46 percent of average — the third lowest since 1963. Deliveries to cities and farms aren’t immediately threatened because abundant snow two winters ago provided a respite from dry conditions that have dominated the basin since 1999.

But on every inhabited continent, clean water is getting harder to find and threats to civilization grow more stark as the global population zooms past 7 billion. The combination is having physical repercussions, such as shrinking seas, dying rivers and sinking land. They are reminders that money and ingenuity can’t defy the laws of nature forever.

I apologise for having pulse your statement and hit the minus rather than the plus.
I could not agree more with your comment but some areas are suffering extreme rains, northern Europe, Japan, and the area of northern Florida a few weeks ago to mention a few!
The general imbalance of traditional climatic conditions will no doubt continue and intensify in the coming years if not reported to the many it will be known by the few.
Planetry climatic adjustment will become a reason rather than an excuse for whats going on soon, as more unavoidable evidence emerges.
Sorry again for hitting the wrong symbol.
If anyone can see this, I have not seen mine or anyone else's comments for the past 10 minutesish.
Quoting Grothar:


No,I haven't. Which one?
All of them so far today.
Wow the blog is all messed up today.
2317. Grothar
Quoting redwagon:

Which nice spin? I see three nice spins in that image.


I implied all three of them. Just too tired to write, nice spin on all three.
Quoting washingtonian115:
All of them so far today.


The blog has been wacky many times today.
Quoting Grothar:


No,I haven't. Which one?
This is the latest GFS, enjoy:)
Multiple TS popssible at once from one front!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Don't forget the hugely abnormal three-day rainfall in Japan (up to 3.5" per hour) that has led to dozens of deaths and the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of residents. And speaking of the ice melting as though it's in a microwave: this past Wednesday, the recorded temperature at the Summit Camp weather station in Greenland reached 36 degrees. That may not sound like much, but that station sits smack in the middle of Greenland's ice cap at an altitude of 10,500 feet.

Amazing that this kind of information is not "D" Noticed!
If they are 4 degrees above freezing in Greenland at 10,500 feet, the end of ice as we know it must be nigh!
By the way we have only had about 8 days rain here in the last year! A mere 43/C on the coast today.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just wanted to get an opinion out of you guys first. Would y'all view my daily Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook if I started making one? It would in no way be affiliated with the National Hurricane Center or any other government organization and would highlight my thoughts on a particular disturbance.

Here's an example.


I would. Lots of WUers see spins before they even start spinning, and as a drought resident I'm always looking for a swirl. Swirls pan out, more often than not :)
2322. Grothar
Quoting bappit:

UUUL



OOOOOK.
2323. cynyc2
I don't post much, but I have to tell you about this storm.

I live in the Tucson Arizona area, and our annual rainfall rate is around 11 to 12 inches.

We just had a storm form over us that dumped 2 inches (cheap Weather Channel rain gauge) in about an hour and change. I have lived here for 18 years, and have never seen it rain like this! It is about time that this monsoon season brought us something. Hopefully Fabio will bring us more.

Back to lurker mode,

Out!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just wanted to get an opinion out of you guys first. Would y'all view my daily Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook if I started making one? It would in no way be affiliated with the National Hurricane Center or any other government organization and would highlight my thoughts on a particular disturbance.

Yes I would, I think it would be great to get a graphical opinion and something that is different from the NHC.
2325. Grothar
Quoting wxchaser97:
This is the latest GFS, enjoy:)
Multiple TS popssible at once from one front!


That doesn't necessarily mean TS's. A lot of times a string of lows can form above a strong high pressure system. Not unusual this time of year. They don't reflect very low pressures on them.
Looks like S Japan is going to receive more Water....


Quoting Grothar:


That doesn't necessarily mean TS's. A lot of times a string of lows can form above a strong high pressure system. Not unusual this time of year. They don't reflect very low pressures on them.

That's 'cause they're in a high pressure environment, Gro. You should know that. ;-)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big rain in SE FL now


Wait till tomorrow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just wanted to get an opinion out of you guys first. Would y'all view my daily Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook if I started making one? It would in no way be affiliated with the National Hurricane Center or any other government organization and would highlight my thoughts on a particular disturbance.


That's a neat idea. I would view it.
South Africa~ Rescue workers evacuated more than 2000 people as heavy rains and snow battered southern parts of South Africa over a freezing weekend. The precipitation had cut off all road links between economic hubs Johannesburg and Cape Town, causing a huge traffic backlog, though main highways linking the north and south of the country were reopened Sunday afternoon, said Road Traffic Management Corporation spokesman Ashraf Ismail. Dozens of trucks had been stuck on the routes after heavy snow had closed them down since Saturday. Soon after traffic was opened, around 500 trucks that had been held up in Johannesburg by the closures started the trek toward Cape Town in the south, Mr Ismail said. Over 100 millimetres of rain fell over the area in three days, with more heavy showers predicted through Sunday night. Thousands of people were moved to community centres as floods hit southern city Port Elizabeth, said municipal spokesman Kupido Barron. "We assisted more than 2000 people," he said, with mattresses, soup and blankets given to families housed in community centres. Police were also looking for two people who ignored a ban and rowed across a flooded road in an inflatable rubber boat, local media reported.
2332. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
Can anyone see my comment?.


No.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good thing a cv storm shouldn't form in the next week or so:

The high would push it into us.


Or central America :0)


this depression has strange form
Quoting Grothar:


That doesn't necessarily mean TS's. A lot of times a string of lows can form above a strong high pressure system. Not unusual this time of year. They don't reflect very low pressures on them.
It is still multiple lows tropical or not. We will have to wait and see if it even opans out.
Quoting Grothar:


I implied all three of them. Just too tired to write, nice spin on all three.

All three five spins are very nice. Especially mine over Centex. But I'm really interested in that one off the GA/SC coast - might it spin up in this 'down' MJO?
Went to a B-Day party today. A lot of red balloons. They wanted a 100, but one popped. Since the blog is slow, I wish there was a video I could post to express how I feel.
2338. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's 'cause they're in a high pressure environment, Gro. You should know that. ;-)


I know that you little..... :)
Quoting redwagon:

All three five spins are very nice. Especially mine over Centex. But I'm really interested in that one off the GA/SC coast - might it spin up in this 'down' MJO?


As I learned in Tropical Weather Rehab...One day at a time.
2341. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Went to a B-Day party today. A lot of red balloons. They wanted a 100, but one popped. Since, the blog is slow, I wish there was a video I could post to express how I feel.


Not unless you want to get bannded.
Quoting sunlinepr:


pr, I see at least 3 circulations in the loop. Time is drawing closer for us to start watching the MDR area.
2343. Grothar
Quoting redwagon:

All three five spins are very nice. Especially mine over Centex. But I'm really interested in that one off the GA/SC coast - might it spin up in this 'down' MJO?


Yes, it could. Some models have been hinting at that. I just wish you good MOJO.
2344. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


That is one suspicious spin.
Quoting hurricane23:


Or central America :0)


U.S. is more likely than CA
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


pr, I see at least 3 circulations in the loop. Time is drawing closer for us to start watching the MDR area.


Couple of weeks and we will be facing reality....
2350. Grothar
We are getting a lot of thunder and lightning along the coast right now.

Quoting hurricane23:


Or central America :0)
It is still a strong forecasted high and not good for us if/when a storm forms.
2352. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Wait till tomorrow.


What's the forecast for tomorrow?
0808 PM FLASH FLOOD AUSTIN 30.31N 97.75W
07/15/2012 TRAVIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WATER RESCUES AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AUSTIN



0745 PM FLASH FLOOD ROUND ROCK 30.52N 97.67W
07/15/2012 WILLIAMSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN
ROUND ROCK DUE TO FLOODING. HOME EVACUATIONS AND HIGH
WATER RESCUES OCCURRING



0525 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ESE LAGO VISTA 30.43N 97.94W
07/15/2012 TRAVIS TX PUBLIC

6 BOATS OF UNKNOWN SIZE FLIPPED OVER DUE TO HIGH WINDS
AT EMERALD POINT MARINA ON LAKE TRAVIS
2354. yoboi
Quoting Grothar:
We are getting a lot of thunder and lightning along the coast right now.




can ya post the radar for ya coast???
2355. Patrap
Fabio

RainBow Top Image

Does anyone get an error message when going to NWS Miami?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2358. Patrap
Fabio


RGB Image

01:00 UTC

Quoting PlazaRed:

We should do a poll on the Olympic this that's going to clog up everything at the end of the month. It could be the wettest Olympics ever!
On the bright side, the beach volleyball should be fun. Especially if a cold wind sets in.
Quoting Skyepony:
0808 PM FLASH FLOOD AUSTIN 30.31N 97.75W
07/15/2012 TRAVIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WATER RESCUES AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AUSTIN TRAVIS TX PUBLIC

6 BOATS OF UNKNOWN SIZE FLIPPED OVER DUE TO HIGH WINDS
AT EMERALD POINT MARINA ON LAKE TRAVIS


Oh, man. Not good. We've had downdrafts over the last month - one exceptional where I heard 30 people screaming down at the marina - and unidentifiable people surfacing since then. I feel like I should go over there and help
Hey all, I've started a blog on here. As a lifelong weather and climate enthusiast, I've decided to start a blog which will document the changes in climate over time right here in the Midwest.

All are welcome to chime in, regardless of your stance on climate change. I'm not going to use the blog to discuss the policy implications or advocate for or against action on climate change. I don't even care whether or not you believe man is the cause of the observed climate change. Instead, the focus is going to be on documenting the changes in the climate with a particular focus on the Midwestern U.S.

My first blog looks at how temperatures in Detroit and Chicago this year stack up against 1961-1990 normals in those cities, as well as the 1961-1990 normals in St. Louis and Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky. In Detroit, through July 15, the mean has been 52.7F. This is 7.3F above the 1961-1990 normal for the city during the same period, and 2.0F above the 1961-1990 normal in Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky for the same period. In Chicago, through July 15, the mean has been 53.9F. This is 8.1F above the 1961-1990 normal for the city, and 0.3F above the 1961-1990 normal for St. Louis for the same period!