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U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.


Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"

"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.

A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."

It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting skook:
Terrible storms in Brandon fl, east of Tampa this afternoon, Trees are down everywhere, during the strongest part of the storm, I saw countless Lightning strikes hitting trees, setting things on fire, poles and trees being blow over.


Yeah, man. Luckily I was west of the main action, but it looks as if it will be a rainy night in Tampa.
1490. MAweatherboy1 12:09 AM GMT on July 11, 2012

Interesting, no mention of any disturbance on the CPHC page...

Issued: Jul 10, 2012 2:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on tropical storm Daniel, located about 1200 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCMEP4 and WMO header WTPZ24. Daniel is expected to cross 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area late tonight.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon.


Almost the position where Daniel is, but ya. analysis surface maps show nothing near those coordinates except DANIEL near 15N 135W


Whaddya mean there's no MJO in the area...

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Pretty interesting how much atmosphere the wave @ 35W is impacting, it's extents are all the way up around 30N. Wonder if it will finally allow the ITCZ to come up out of the doldrums.



I was looking at the vorticity on that earlier today. Give that 5 days, and where will it be?

Starting to hear some thunder in my area now.
The NHC has been doing a lot of tests lately. Had a few majors and a Category 5 lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC has been doing a lot of tests lately. Had a few majors and a Category 5 lol.


what if they no somethng we dont :O
1506. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
709 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLC075-110045-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0041.120710T2309Z-120711T0045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEVY FL-
709 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN LEVY COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 708 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2932 8312 2934 8309 2936 8295 2917 8286
2919 8309 2922 8310 2925 8309 2928 8315
2932 8315

$$
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Almost the position where Daniel is, but ya. analysis surface maps show nothing near those coordinates except DANIEL near 15N 135W
I thought "test for Daniel" when I saw it.
1508. LargoFl
isnt it funny how much damage and flooding came from a tropical storm here? we dont think much of a storm unless its a hurricane huh..but its not how strong a storm is to do damage, its sometimes how long..the storm sits over an area that makes for all the flooding and damage, not today..we had excessive lightning strikes AND alot of wind and rain, just a simple afternoon thunderstorm set-up..and look at the damage...from now on, I..am taking nothing for granted with ANY storm that comes to my area..geez
Looks like a doozie on the text maps that is :-)

Quoting rjla67:
Here is a pic I snapped in the Oldsmar / Brooker Creek area of the storm fronts that moved through Tampa around 5pm:

Storm Pic on Twitter
Very Midwestern appearance. Nice.
Quoting Civicane49:

This is a test.
Yes. Just thought I'd pass it along. It's odd how many tests are run during season, and how few during the off-season. Well, if not odd, at least potentially confusing...
Quoting weatherh98:


what if they no somethng we dont :O
They often do.

lol

On a serious note, instability this year seems to be WAY up from last year, and the current high setup is not the one we want "set in stone" with storms not ramping up until they're west of 55W... I like the idea of the split high somebody was describing earlier... gives a bit more of a chance of the Super-CVs recurving early.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes. Just thought I'd pass it along. It's odd how many tests are run during season, and how few during the off-season. Well, if not odd, at least potentially confusing...


Agreed.
Quoting LargoFl:
isnt it funny how much damage and flooding came from a tropical storm here? we dont think much of a storm unless its a hurricane huh..but its not how strong a storm is to do damage, its sometimes how long..the storm sits over an area that makes for all the flooding and damage, not today..we had excessive lightning strikes AND alot of wind and rain, just a simple afternoon thunderstorm set-up..and look at the damage...from now on, I..am taking nothing for granted with ANY storm that comes to my area..geez
Some of the worst flooding we had here in the last 20 years came during June in a year when no TCs hit us... just a couple slowmoving Twaves and likely TUTT interaction... Sorta like what happened in PR earlier this year...
Quoting BahaHurican:
They often do.

lol

On a serious note, instability this year seems to be WAY up from last year, and the current high setup is not the one we want "set in stone" with storms not ramping up until they're west of 55W... I like the idea of the split high somebody was describing earlier... gives a bit more of a chance of the Super-CVs recurving early.


Both highs remain strong. Nothing is recurving in this pattern.


Quoting BahaHurican:
They often do.

lol

On a serious note, instability this year seems to be WAY up from last year, and the current high setup is not the one we want "set in stone" with storms not ramping up until they're west of 55W... I like the idea of the split high somebody was describing earlier... gives a bit more of a chance of the Super-CVs recurving early.



its mmainly the ecmwf

still would send storms into texla
Long trackers to Texas for sure.




Daniel, now a bigger version of Jose, coming to its end and your nearest theater.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks like a doozie on the text maps that is :-)



Plenty of moisture with the wave.

13,000year-plus-old IceAge carving of a mammoth or mastodon found in Florida.
1521. LargoFl
Quoting aspectre:
13,000year-plus-old IceAge carving of a mammoth or mastodon found in Florida.
..amazing pic there
For those who are wondering what's going on elsewhere across the globe as the U.S. continues to be plagued by extreme weather events, here's a brief rundown from Mongabay.com. (Bottom line: many other places are experiencing extreme weather events):
Fires in Siberia: Exceptionally dry and warm conditions have led to hundreds of wildfires in Siberia this summer. Greenpeace has stated recently that the organization believes more forest has burned this year in Russia than the devastating fires of 2010.

Killer Russian floods: Fire is not the only extreme weather event in Russia this summer: an incredible flood killed 171 people in southern Russia, damaged 13,000 homes, and has created a crisis of trust for Russian political leaders. Over two days, the region of Krasnodar Krai saw as much rain as it usually sees in five months. In less than 24 hours 300 millimeters (11.8 inches) of precipitation fell.

Wet Britain: The U.K. saw its wettest June on record, after an already rainy spring, leading to massive floods and property damage. Already, insurers are predicting the flood-heavy season will cost tens of millions of pounds. Forecasters predict more floods this month even as a month's worth of rain fell in 24 hours in southwestern Britain.

Battered Bangladesh: Five days of torrential downpours in Bangladesh resulted in landslides and flooding, killing 100 people and stranding 250,000. The monsoon downpours were some of the heaviest seen in recent years. Most of the fatalities occurred in landslides. Bangladesh is considered among the world's most vulnerable nations to climate change.

Drowning Assam: Tremendous flooding has also struck the Indian state of Assam. To date, the floods have inundated over 4,500 villages and killed at least 125 people. Over a million people have been forced to flee their homes during the deluges. The flooding also swamped one of India's most famous wildlife parks, Kaziranga National Parks, killing 595 animals, including 17 Indian rhinos and two Asian elephants.

Korean drought: Both North and South Korea are suffering from their worst drought on record. The drought is decimating crops and worsening an on-going food crisis in North Korea. Tens of thousands of hectares of crops have already been lost.

Hunger in the Sahel: Officials have been warning for months that weak rains and ongoing drought in the Sahel region of Africa could lead to a famine. UNICEF has said recently that 18 million people are at risk of malnutrition and starvation. The food crisis has been exacerbated by local conflict.

Floods in Nigerian port: The massive port city of Lagos has seen dramatic flooding, as have other parts of southwest Nigeria. Waters submerged houses, the airport, and roads. Seven children were killed after their school collapsed due to the heavy rains.
And so on...

And so on...

And so on...
1523. Sangria
LOL...I can appreciate some of the comments about some of us folks in FL, but please don't discount the severity of some of the storms we have....

The lightning was intense today......we like the seabreeze "pop ups" but don't particularly care for the damage that can be caused by really severe weather....just like the rest of you, I would think!!!

btw...I received 2.32" here today in Pasco County, of which most of that was during a hellacious event around 2:30pm EDT....
East Texas this year is a major turn around from last year. 50% chance of rain forecasted almost every day for a week, comparatively mild temperatures, only a few days have challenged record highs. It is unfortunate the east coast is experiencing the heat now, but it is a major relief not having to fear that the country around us will burst in to flame at any moment.
1525. LargoFl
Quoting BahaHurican:
Some of the worst flooding we had here in the last 20 years came during June in a year when no TCs hit us... just a couple slowmoving Twaves and likely TUTT interaction... Sorta like what happened in PR earlier this year...
yes its amazing how much damage can come from a simple slow moving storm
1526. LargoFl
Quoting SafeInTexas:
East Texas this year is a major turn around from last year. 50% chance of rain forecasted almost every day for a week, comparatively mild temperatures, only a few days have challenged record highs. It is unfortunate the east coast is experiencing the heat now, but it is a major relief not having to fear that the country around us will burst in to flame at any moment.
..hopefully all your lakes etc will finally fill up, i know alot of folks over there were really worried just a month or two ago, good luck with your rains
1527. LargoFl
Quoting Sangria:
LOL...I can appreciate some of the comments about some of us folks in FL, but please don't discount the severity of some of the storms we have....

The lightning was intense today......we like the seabreeze "pop ups" but don't particularly care for the damage that can be caused by really severe weather....just like the rest of you, I would think!!!

btw...I received 2.32" here today in Pasco County, of which most of that was during a hellacious event around 2:30pm EDT....
oh yes, the lightning today was terrible, like a warzone..and more is on the way coming from the south
Emilia goes below Cat 3.

EP, 05, 2012071100, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1151W, 95, 967, HU
...thats a negative ghost rider....
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Emilia goes below Cat 3.

EP, 05, 2012071100, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1151W, 95, 967, HU


EWRC
1531. LargoFl
1533. LargoFl
............................oh no, here comes another line of strong storms, and worse, its supposed to continue for another 5 days or so..gee
Deleted
1535. LargoFl
Quoting weatherh98:


EWRC



i think he nos that
Quoting Tazmanian:



i think he nos that


:O
1538. LargoFl
Quoting weatherh98:
...thats a negative ghost rider....
Just as I projected.the ridge will break down.In about a week or two watch out for development near Africa.
Daniel barely a Storm.

EP, 04, 2012071100, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1376W, 35, 1003, TS
1541. JNCali
Quoting Neapolitan:
For those who are wondering what's going on elsewhere across the globe as the U.S. continues to be plagued by extreme weather events, here's a brief rundown from Mongabay.com. (Bottom line: many other places are experiencing extreme weather events):And so on...

And so on...

And so on...
They don't mention Middle TN?? it's another country around this place for sure :P
Quoting washingtonian115:
Just as I projected.the ridge will break down.In about a week or two watch out for development near Africa.


no. not really ridge holds strong the nao has been negative all year
Tropical Storm Daniel:


Quoting weatherh98:


no. not really ridge holds strong the nao has been negative all year
Yes.But it won't be as strong as it has been so far this month.
#1535
Freaky flooding is common in this area.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Just as I projected.the ridge will break down.In about a week or two watch out for development near Africa.
1547. LargoFl
...........the booming in the distance has started once again, here we go again folks, hopefully it wont be as bad with the damage as before
1548. LargoFl
Looks like what's left of Daniel could live some additional days....

good night
Quoting LargoFl:
...........the booming in the distance has started once again, here we go again folks, hopefully it wont be as bad with the damage as before
That booming you heard was the National League scoring 5 runs against the American League in the first inning. lol
1553. LargoFl
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
That booming you heard was the National League scoring 5 runs against the American League in the first inning. lol
LOL..heard it all the way down here
Lots of boiling water around...

1555. LargoFl
ok lights flickering again and the storms getting closer..good night everyone..tomorrow is another day.....................T. PETERSBURG --
The afternoon heat and sea breeze is helping to produce another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

The storms are expected to die down this evening.
“As we head through the evening the storms will fall apart,” said Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay.

Power outages

Officials with Tampa Electric said nearly 5,000 customers are without power. Check to see if your area is affected.

Progress Energy also reported a few hundred power outages in Citrus, Pinellas, and Pasco counties. Power is expected to be restored by 7 p.m. Check to see if your area is affected.

In Hillsborough County, officials said there are "widespread" reports of downed tree limbs and power lines in the area of east Adamo Drive.

The following major intersections either have no power, flashing lights, or debris in the roadway:

I-275 and Fowler Avenue
Busch Blvd and Florida Avenue
Nebraska Ave and Hillsborough Avenue
Hillsborough Ave and Central Avenue
Sligh Ave and Central Avenue
Fowler Ave and 30th Street
Sligh Ave and 15th Stree(tree in roadway)
Nebraska Ave and Hanna Avneue
40th St and Hillsborough Avenue
28th St Busch Blvd (tree in roadway)
Busch Blvd and Boulevard

Officials are urging drivers to treat intersections with non-working lights as a four-way stop.

Tampa International Airport is also reporting as many as a dozen delays, with some up to 2 hours. Check your flight status

Rainfall totals as of 6 p.m. Tuesday

Citrus Co.
Crystal River 1.06
Sugarmill Woods 0.05

Hernando Co.
Weeki Wachee 0.78
Brooksville 1.57

Pasco Co.
Dade City 2.16
Hudson 0.82

Hillsborough Co.
Cheval 1.35
Westchase 2.85
Town N. Country 1.02
USF 1.31
Brandon 1.08
TIA 0.14

Pinellas Co.
Pinellas Park 1.62
Feathersound .82
Palm Harbor 0.30

Manatee Co.
Palmetto 1.27
Lakewood Ranch .25

Polk Co.
Lakeland 0.41
Bartow 0.22

Although parts of the Bay area didn't get rain yesterday, many did, as thunderstorms moved along and in from the Gulf of Mexico.

Some areas, including Town & Country and areas north, took on more than two inches of rain.


2140 1 ENE MOUNT PLEASANT OUTER BANKS HYDE NC 3542 7607 MOTORIST REPORTED A TORNADO WHILE RIDING DOWN HWY-264 MOVING TOWARD THE PAMLICO SOUND (MHX)
2042 175 3 N TOWN 'N' COUNTRY HILLSBOROUGH FL 2805 8258 THE PUBLIC REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL ON SHELDON ROAD. (TBW) Is there usually golfball size hail in FL?
2032 UNK PENDLETON ANDERSON SC 3465 8278 *** 1 INJ *** A PERSON WAS TAKEN TO THE HOSPITAL AFTER BEING HIT BY A FALLING TREE ON MECHANIC STREET IN PENDLETON. EXTENT OF INJURIES UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. (GSP)
Quoting weatherh98:
good night

It's 9 o clock.....
Does the rain in Florida bring out the mosquitoes like it does here on the Texas coast? They have been horrible here the entire summer so far. Of course the high tides coming up farther in the marsh doesn't help either.
Video of Tampa Storm Blowing Roof off Building:
Link
Good luck there, Largo
Quoting weatherh98:
It has been consistent with it for now...
When should the EWRC
be over and will Emilia
restrengthen?
Gotta love the parade of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific today. It's cool how you can see all the stages of a tropical cyclone's life at one time today in the below satellite photo alone. I made a little writeup about it on my blog http://weather.schematical.com/

Quoting sunlinepr:
Lots of boiling water around...



Look at that giant ULL.The TUTT is well established for now.
Wow every state in the southeast is covered with thunderstorms or rain.And look at N.C wow.Carolina's seem to be getting pounded.
1566. Grothar
Quoting aspectre:
13,000year-plus-old IceAge carving of a mammoth or mastodon found in Florida.


That was a picture of a Mastodon. We didn't have Mammoths in Florida back then. I would have known.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow every state in the southeast is covered with thunderstorms or rain.And look at N.C wow.Carolina's seem to be getting pounded.
I'll keep you guys updated from my area in NC.
1568. spathy
Quoting weatherh98:


its mmainly the ecmwf

still would send storms into texla


Hummmmm?
Youall can conger all the awful scenarios you want.
And they could come true!
But this Floridian is very happy to see a good Rainy season setup.
On the contrary, I have noticed the East to West flow is stronger than the Seabreeze on Floridas SW coastline.
The boundary on ourcoast is being blown past and the storms are most severe directly on the coastline and not prior to the coastline.
Give the gulf a couple o more degree rise in temp and the seabreeze can compete with the stronger E>W flow.
We are at 88 in the Gulf. 89 or 90 that will happen within the week will be the trick.
1569. Grothar
Looking piddly.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'll keep you guys updated from my area in NC.
I wouldn't be surprised to see flood advisories.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's 9 o clock.....

i have to go to bed at 9 o clock at school nights, 10:30 in the summer time. :(
1572. Grothar
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



13,000 years old?

+ Mammoth or Mastodon?

+ Florida?

Hmmmmmmmmmm, I guess this explains Grothar's rug then. ;-) I guess he took it serious when they told him to write on the wall and they will read it later.


What do you think, blogging is new? We used to call it a "Wall Post", then some young kid created a webite and made billions. If I only knew.......!


98E has a tremendous moisture field.

1573. Grothar
Quoting Articuno:

i have to go to bed at 9 o clock at school nights, 10:30 in the summer time. :(


Don't feel bad. My kids make me do that, too!
Quoting turtlehurricane:
Gotta love the parade of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific today. It's cool how you can see all the stages of a tropical cyclone's life at one time today in the below satellite photo alone. I made a little writeup about it on my blog http://weather.schematical.com/



Excellent work...
Quoting Grothar:


Don't feel bad. My kids make me do that, too!

Well..That's...different
Quoting Grothar:
Looking piddly.




will have too send EMILIA too the doc



i this send EMILIA the doc bill
Quoting aspectre:
13,000year-plus-old IceAge carving of a mammoth or mastodon found in Florida.


Good Artist
1578. spathy
Quoting Grothar:
Looking piddly.


Piddly only because it not piddling around my doorstep.
I just love fish storms.
Has anyone mentioned the convergent spinning off my SWFL coast?
I dont think it can do anything bad but it sure sparks my interest.
1579. OneDrop
Quoting sunlinepr:
Lots of boiling water around...

Is that huge swirl to the NE of the islands a gale center or just an ULL? Just curious if it might throw a swell toward the east coast of the US.
Quoting spathy:

Piddly only because it not piddling around my doorstep.
I just love fish storms.
Has anyone mentioned the convergent spinning off my SWFL coast?
I dont think it can do anything bad but it sure sparks my interest.
Yes i've mentioned it earlier but it probably won't be more than some good rains for someone.
1581. ncstorm
lots of boomers..

1582. spathy
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes i've mentioned it earlier but it probably won't be more than some good rains for someone.


Thats good news. As long as its not rain for Fl big bend area(panhandle)
1583. Grothar
Quoting spathy:

Piddly only because it not piddling around my doorstep.
I just love fish storms.
Has anyone mentioned the convergent spinning off my SWFL coast?
I dont think it can do anything bad but it sure sparks my interest.


Just looks like our regular summertime showers. Hopefully we get some action soon. Here's a closeup for you.



Quoting ncstorm:
lots of boomers..

still getting pounded at OBX. Is something developing of the NC coast?
I know I'm kinda off-topic ( at least it looks that way), but I couldn't resist sharing this. I'm at a summer weather camp here in D.C. and some of us campers just "happened" to notice the sky getting greener, and then saw a rotating wall cloud. This is the video we shot.

Howard University Wall Cloud
1586. Sangria
Quoting spathy:

Piddly only because it not piddling around my doorstep.
I just love fish storms.
Has anyone mentioned the convergent spinning off my SWFL coast?
I dont think it can do anything bad but it sure sparks my interest.


Hiya Spathy......have watched it most of the day....around 24N/86W.....it's an ULL, and does not look to be working it's way down any, so don't think anything will happen with it....
Quoting GTcooliebai:
over 7000 lightning strikes with the line of storms that came through here, looks like FL. summertime pattern is back!


It sure is!


I was on earlier reporting the storm as it started but then I stopped suddenly, I'm ok and everything is fine here just to let everyone know, I stopped reporting because i had to leave for school.

We had nearly 2 inches of rain today, gusts over 40 mph at times near 50. But the most impressive part of all was definitely the lightning. My gosh, I haven't seen that many close lightning hits in a while definitely the most impressive lightning so far this year.


Honestly this might be the first time in a long while we are seeing the classic summer time pattern in Florida. Although this weather might seem rather "freakish" it's not at all. Strong to severe thunderstorms that bring wind damage, flooding and freakish lighting is a common thing around here. We just haven't had this pattern n a while so it seems unusually but we are really seeing a more classic Florida summer. It's great to see it back!

It's not that we haven't had enough rain in recent years during the rainy season, its just that the past few days we had more just showery rainy weather instead of this pattern like this where we get powerful thunderstorms that produce incredible lightning shows almost every. We still got them but they were fewer the past few years than what i grew up with.


Well, they're back!

1588. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Good Artist


Thank you.
1589. Grothar
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Does the rain in Florida bring out the mosquitoes like it does here on the Texas coast? They have been horrible here the entire summer so far. Of course the high tides coming up farther in the marsh doesn't help either.


Mosquitoes are absolutely brutal here around Tampa Bay. I have gotten torn up at 2 PM during hot sun while working on my car, at night they are even worse, you literally have to RUN to get away from them, they'll chase you down!

They were surprisingly pretty bad even during the severe drought before Debby. But the 12 inch plus widespread rain amounts and overall a wet June after such a severe drought must have stimulated the mosquitoes even more than normal. Because I get eaten up every time I'm outside.
1591. VINNY04
Quoting Jedkins01:


It sure is!


I was on earlier reporting the storm as it started but then I stopped suddenly, I'm ok and everything is fine here just to let everyone know, I stopped reporting because i had to leave for school.

We had nearly 2 inches of rain today, gusts over 40 mph at times near 50. But the most impressive part of all was definitely the lightning. My gosh, I haven't seen that many close lightning hits in a while definitely the most impressive lightning so far this year.


Honestly this might be the first time in a long while we are seeing the classic summer time pattern in Florida. Although this weather might seem rather "freakish" it's not at all. Strong to severe thunderstorms that bring wind damage, flooding and freakish lighting is a common thing around here. We just haven't had this pattern n a while so it seems unusually but we are really seeing a more classic Florida summer. It's great to see it back!

It's not that we haven't had enough rain in recent years during the rainy season, its just that the past few days we had more just showery rainy weather instead of this pattern like this where we get powerful thunderstorms that produce incredible lightning shows almost every. We still got them but they were fewer the past few years than what i grew up with.


Well, they're back!

yah i missed this weather. heres to a productive lightning season!!!!!
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
I know I'm kinda off-topic ( at least it looks that way), but I couldn't resist sharing this. I'm at a summer weather camp here in D.C. and some of us campers just "happened" to notice the sky getting greener, and then saw a rotating wall cloud. This is the video we shot.

Howard University Wall Cloud
It's weather..so it's not off topic.But the sky was sort of a darkish green.Then it started to rain and at first normal..then hard for at least 20 minutes.I saw a few lightning strikes with with a rumble of thunder or two.I did measure a wind of 35mph.Hubby said he recorded one at 40mph.
Quoting Grothar:


Thank you.


:O
1594. spathy
Quoting charlottefl:
I'm not gonna complain about the rain, BUT.. It's been doing this every day right as I get home, so I haven't been able to mow the grass. It's starting to get VERY tall...


Hi Charlotte.
Look into the lawn I installed last year.
Its called prestige buffalo grass.
Extremely drought tolerant American native grass.
It only grows to 4-6" tall.
I havent mowed it at all. Well I mowed it in Sept and it didnt like it.
I watered it 1x/month /if that often. It went completely brown,but it would stay green if you watered it. I have not put any fertilizer or insecticide on it and its a beautiful green even though I occasionally see chinch bugs.
Talk about a "Green" lawn.
Yes Spathy can be green.
Seriously folks. This is the native lawn of the future.
1595. spathy
Quoting Sangria:


Hiya Spathy......have watched it most of the day....around 24N/86W.....it's an ULL, and does not look to be working it's way down any, so don't think anything will happen with it....

Hi San
Thats what it looked like to me,but yesterday it sure Got my eye!
1596. Tygor
4th night in a row in San Antonio where the rain has somehow missed us. Thunder and lightning all around but nary a drop falling.
1597. ncstorm
OBX-looks something maybe trying to develop..

good vorticity.


Tropical Cyclone Formation
1598. VINNY04
Quoting Tygor:
4th night in a row in San Antonio where the rain has somehow missed us. Thunder and lightning all around but nary a drop falling.
i feel your pain. it happens to us in tampa too.
Quoting spathy:

Hi San
Thats what it looked like to me,but yesterday it sure Got my eye!
Spathy how'd you come up with your user name?.
1600. spathy
Quoting Grothar:


Just looks like our regular summertime showers. Hopefully we get some action soon. Here's a closeup for you.





The mixup in the atmosphere sure caused some wicked CL> Gr lightning. I was waiting for the vibrations to break a window at any moment. 20 sec rumblings and instant shock-waves were relentless for an hr or so.
Awsome!
1601. OneDrop
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Does the rain in Florida bring out the mosquitoes like it does here on the Texas coast? They have been horrible here the entire summer so far. Of course the high tides coming up farther in the marsh doesn't help either.
The mosquitoes are the worst I've seen in 25 years. I used to be a fishing guide in Everglades National Park and I have never seen anything like it this year. You can here them coming when you approach a mangrove island to fish and they are hungry!! Here in Volusia county in NE Florida, they are so friggin' bad that they've sprayed 3 times in my neighborhood since late May.
Quoting LargoFl:
..hopefully all your lakes etc will finally fill up, i know alot of folks over there were really worried just a month or two ago, good luck with your rains

I can't wait to read the rain gauges-- we just got what I swear was 3" in 30mins right on top of Lake Travis. That hasn't happened in.. almost two years. It's weird. Feels like when you have a water interruption that lasts and lasts and then suddenly cuts back on and every faucet in your house starts blasting!
Quoting Grothar:


Thank you.



LOL






This was headed north to Speech class this afternoon, this thunderstorm had a severe thunderstorm warning at the time. In the first photo there is a strong updraft beneath the thick wall cloud/outflow boundary, it had some weak rotation and was hanging very low, although it looked pretty creepy it never gained any organization, thankfully that atmosphere isn't too favorable for tornadoes, however these nasty sea breeze collisions can sometimes spin up weak tornadoes from low level shearing.

The second photo was a wall cloud formation extending out from the cell before I drove beneath it.
Quoting spathy:


The mixup in the atmosphere sure caused some wicked CL> Gr lightning. I was waiting for the vibrations to break a window at any moment. 20 sec rumblings and instant shock-waves were relentless for an hr or so.
Awsome!

Sure sounds scary cool.
1606. spathy
Quoting washingtonian115:
Spathy how'd you come up with your user name?.

Its complicated.
There is a little known ref to Conservatism,but the spark was from one of my fave forms of flowers.
Its called a Spath. One of the most well known Spath forms is the spathiphyllum.
Peace lily.



Thank you for asking :O)

It might be Spathe.
I dont feel like looking it up.
Hmmm... looks like we're going to get some more rain tonight...



G'night, all.

Enjoy the rest of the evening.
Dead Daniel


Extreme Emilia
1609. spathy
Quoting Articuno:

Sure sounds scary cool.

Its what was norm here. I had a blinking smile from ear to ear :O)
1610. Sangria
Great pics, Jedkins.....thought it was bad sitting in my house.....would have hated to be driving in it, this afternoon.....
11/0000 UTC 15.4N 137.6W T1.5/2.5 DANIEL -- East Pacific
11/0000 UTC 14.2N 115.1W T4.5/5.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific

Quoting wxchaser97:
Dead Daniel


Extreme Emilia




Future Fabio

Quoting OneDrop:
The mosquitoes are the worst I've seen in 25 years. I used to be a fishing guide in Everglades National Park and I have never seen anything like it this year. You can here them coming when you approach a mangrove island to fish and they are hungry!! Here in Volusia county in NE Florida, they are so friggin' bad that they've sprayed 3 times in my neighborhood since late May.


Anyone in here from Naples FL right now? When I lived there they used to fly the DC-3'S over the city with a diesel/whatever insecticide they used to kill em. Kinda like Robert Duval smelling the napalm in Apocalypse Now and saying " It smells like victory".
TS Jose

Any similarities
TS Daniel
1615. Buhdog
HMmmmmmm, here is in Cape Coral (swfl) low level clouds are streaming south? Wonder if a low is forming south or east of us.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Dead Daniel


Extreme Emilia


She still has some very nice towers
1617. spathy
Quoting Buhdog:
HMmmmmmm, here is in Cape Coral (swfl) low level clouds are streaming south? Wonder if a low is forming south or east of us.

I was looking at them earlier. Lit up well with the FM lights.
Quoting WxGeekVA:




Future Fabio


I tink so
Dry Thunderstorm Threat for the Northern Rockies
A disturbance moving through the Northwestern U.S. has the potential to kick off isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies. These thunderstorms will likely produce little precipitation. Should a lightning strike spark a fire amid the dry and gusty conditions of the northern Rockies, fire could spread quickly. Link
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I tink so


Looking at the loops 98E has gotten a lot more organized recently and should be bumped up to 90% or more next TWO.
Quoting wxchaser97:
TS Jose

Any similarities
TS Daniel


Daniel is more bigger...lol
From the SPC from the earlier storms in Tampa:

2015 UNK 3 WNW BRANDON HILLSBOROUGH FL 2794 8234 POWER POLES SNAPPED IN HALF NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FALKENBURG ROAD AND HIGHW
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looking at the loops 98E has gotten a lot more organized recently and should be bumped up to 90% or more next TWO.
Heck one could say 98E looks better than ts Daniel right now.

VS.
1624. Buhdog
f I stare at and zoom into this loop, its looks like a developing storm with flare ups and rotation near naples...

or I am a homer. More likely...

Link

I was just thrown off by the low level clouds going in the opposite direction as the storms earlier.
Guess Tampa got hit pretty hard this afternoon:





Just came back on to say we have some thunder / lightning happenin w/ that approaching storm cloud.

Could get interesting tonight... lol
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



Anyone in here from Naples FL right now? When I lived there they used to fly the DC-3'S over the city with a diesel/whatever insecticide they used to kill em. Kinda like Robert Duval smelling the napalm in Apocalypse Now and saying " It smells like victory".


They still fly planes over Bonita Springs, not sure if they're DC 3's or not. They kinda remind me a little of the hurricane hunter planes, and they fly LOW.
1628. nigel20
Good evening everyone!
1629. spathy
Quoting Buhdog:
f I stare at and zoom into this loop, its looks like a developing storm with flare ups and rotation near naples...

or I am a homer. More likely...

Link

I was just thrown off by the low level clouds going in the opposite direction as the storms earlier.


I hear ya.
The more I stare at the possible spin the more I see spin.
So I stopped looking.
Now I dont see them.
I just keep telling myself that it is headed West.
Not towards me.
The NHC can worry about it later.
The Nile river is a warm comfy swimming hole.
1630. spathy
Quoting charlottefl:
Guess Tampa got hit pretty hard this afternoon:







Ouch!
I hope no one was hurt!
1631. VINNY04
Quoting charlottefl:
Guess Tampa got hit pretty hard this afternoon:





You reckon? i say it did.
I hope you all are enjoying that weather. It's beautiful in South Central PA. :D
What a dramatic change from earlier today. Now it deserves a red circle. Didn't earlier though.

1634. VINNY04
Quoting andfol91:
I hope you all are enjoying that weather. It's beautiful in South Central PA. :D
you better enjoy it before it gets hot up there! your on the right blog andfol91
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just came back on to say we have some thunder / lightning happenin w/ that approaching storm cloud.

Could get interesting tonight... lol


Or as I say ineresting
Hawaii waits for dying Daniel....




Meanwhile:

Russia Sends Warships to Mediterranean

Link
Quoting Buhdog:
HMmmmmmm, here is in Cape Coral (swfl) low level clouds are streaming south? Wonder if a low is forming south or east of us.


What you are most likely seeing is low level flow from the north due to a large are of heavy thunderstorms from earlier, you can get consistent thunderstorm outflow persisting long after they over sometimes. I've seen that happen many times before.
1639. nigel20
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Or as I say ineresting

Hey Joe. What's up?
Quoting charlottefl:


They still fly planes over Bonita Springs, not sure if they're DC 3's or not. They kinda remind me a little of the hurricane hunter planes, and they fly LOW.


they sure did!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 138.3W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
...DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 15.4°N 138.3°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting charlottefl:
Guess Tampa got hit pretty hard this afternoon:








More like got its butt wiped, lol.
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 110231
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS THIS EVENING. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REMAINS OVER
SSTS OF 24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE UPDATED TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE EVENLOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.4N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 15.5N 146.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 15.5N 149.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
1646. nigel20
..DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 15.4°N 138.3°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone!


Hi Nigel
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...EMILIA WEAKENS BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 115.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


they sure did!


The first time I saw it I honestly thought it was gonna crash, cause there's not an airport anywhere in town there.
1650. nigel20
...EMILIA WEAKENS BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 14.4°N 115.6°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
...EMILIA WEAKENS BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 14.4°N 115.6°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
I know this is a bit off topic, but I was researching some meteorological history and I was wondering how often do events like the great blizzard of 1899 happen.
I'd sure like to see that in my life time; snow in Miami!
...EMILIA WEAKENS BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 14.4°N 115.6°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 5 15 33
TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 5 24 34 36
TROPICAL STORM 1 13 30 52 58 46 29
HURRICANE 99 87 69 43 14 6 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 37 56 48 32 11 6 2
HUR CAT 2 55 23 15 7 2 X X
HUR CAT 3 6 7 5 3 X X X
HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 85KT 80KT 75KT 65KT 50KT 40KT 30KT



1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

1654. VINNY04
Quoting RussianWinter:
I know this is a bit off topic, but I was researching some meteorological history and I was wondering how often do events like the great blizzard of 1899 happen.
I'd sure like to see that in my life time; snow in Miami!
Not in your life!!!!! Then that means Tampa will look like antarctica or somewthing like that
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110238
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD-FILLED
IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0 OR 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR 100 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. THE LIKELY CAUSE OF THE
WEAKENING IS MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 36 HOURS...EMILIA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C BY THEN AND
TRACK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

EMILIA HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...A LONGER TERM MOTION IS 290/10. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A TURN TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BEYOND
A FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 14.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.7N 117.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 15.6N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 17.0N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 17.7N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 18.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Quoting charlottefl:
From the SPC from the earlier storms in Tampa:

2015 UNK 3 WNW BRANDON HILLSBOROUGH FL 2794 8234 POWER POLES SNAPPED IN HALF NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FALKENBURG ROAD AND HIGHW


As of right now it doesn't appear that there was any tornado touch downs, just powerful downdrafts.

We don't even have cold air aloft or technically a favorable atmosphere for any severe weather. This severe weather is purely from strong sea breeze convergence, warm water temps, and lots of daytime heating, as it often is this time of year. Which is why you never see severe weather outlooks for us for these events. It's a lower level and local based cause, as apposed to a synoptic situation that can be anticipated.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What a dramatic change from earlier today. Now it deserves a red circle. Didn't earlier though.





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 690 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
1658. nigel20
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Hi Nigel

The SST's seems to have cooled a bit in sections of the equatorial pacific...I'm wondering if el nino will be pushed back to a later time frame...

Heat blamed for fish kills in southern Minn. lakes


Article by: Associated Press
Updated: July 10, 2012 - 8:54 PM

ALBERT LEA, Minn. - The recent heat wave is blamed for killing thousands of fish in several southern Minnesota lakes.

Most of the lakes are shallow, and thus more susceptible to summer fish kills, and most of the fish were northern pike, which prefer cold water.

Affected waters include Geneva Lake north of Albert Lea, where Department of Natural Resources officials say several thousand northerns probably died, and Fountain Lake in Albert Lea, where hundreds of northerns floated up last weekend.

Jack Lauer, the regional fisheries manager in New Ulm, says he's heard of about 10 to 15 affected lakes. He says populations will recover.

Henry Drewes, the regional fisheries manager for northwestern Minnesota, says some waters around Alexandria have also seen fish kills, including Lake Christina and the Pomme de Terre (pom-duh-TAIR') River.
@1447
Quoting redwagon:
No, you didn't, for a few years there every storm was RIP or FISH upon getting an invest.
If you look, there is a rotation all 'round TX, quite spheroid.
Thanks for the reply. Maybe you are having trouble with the quote button.

Yes, there is a dip in the middle. Brought some rain today to Oklahoma. Yesterday also.

Quoting turtlehurricane:
Gotta love the parade of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific today. It's cool how you can see all the stages of a tropical cyclone's life at one time today in the below satellite photo alone. I made a little writeup about it on my blog http://weather.schematical.com/



and many people say that the storms is not gonna affect land (fish storm) even it if intensifies to cat 5, but I just wander what could happen if any boat from anywhere gets in the path of this monster.

or what if Mexico and the epac ocean flip places... all storms would impact the country, and they become strong
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What a dramatic change from earlier today. Now it deserves a red circle. Didn't earlier though.



you can be sure that this thing is developed

:)
1664. VINNY04
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
@1447 Thanks for the reply. Maybe you are having trouble with the quote button.

Yes, there is a dip in the middle. Brought some rain today to Oklahoma. Yesterday also.

good Oklahoma needed some rain. they needed a break from this heat
Quoting Tazmanian:




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 690 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Or: A MEDIUM CHANCE... 40 PERCENT... OF NOT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Not offical
Considering TS.Daniel's 20.1mph(32.3km/h) travel-speed against its MaximumSustainedWinds of 35knots(40mph)65km/h, I'm surprised that NHC hasn't declared Daniel to be kaput.

Derived from the 11July12amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDaniel:
Its vector had changed from 16.7mph(26.8km/h) West to 20.1mph(32.3km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 45knots(52mph)83km/h to 35knots(40mph)65km/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 1000millibars to 1003millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego

Easternmost dot on the kinked line is where TS.Daniel became H.Daniel
Westernmost dot on the kinked line is Daniel's final position as a Hurricane.
The next dot west on the connected line-segment is where Daniel became a TropicalStorm again.
Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii.
10July6amGMT: TS.Daniel had been headed toward passing 325miles(522kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Bottom half of the blob south of the straightline)
10July12pmGMT: TS.Daniel had been headed toward passing 430miles(692kilometres) South of Hawaii (Southernmost lone unconnected full dot)
10July6pmGMT: TS.Daniel had been headed toward passing 312miles(503kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Bottom half of the blob south of the straightline)
11July12amGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 229miles(369kilometres) South of Hawaii
in ~2days9hours from now

Copy&paste 9n161w, hi25, 14.217n155.167w, 12.746n154.57w, 14.386n155.245w, san, 14.4n116.5w- 14.5n117.5w- 14.6n118.6w- 14.7n119.6w- 14.8n120.7w- 14.9n121.7w- 15.0n123.1w- 15.1n124.4w- 15.2n125.7w- 15.3n127.0w- 15.3n128.4w- 15.4n129.9w- 15.4n131.5w- 15.4n133.0w, 15.4n133.0w-15.3n134.3w, 15.3n134.3w-15.3n135.8w, 15.3n135.8w-15.4n137.6w, 15.3n135.8w-15.576n155.569w, 18.911n155.681w-15.576n155.569w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
1667. nigel20
Quoting wxchaser97:


DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 15.4°N 138.3°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


lol
Quoting wxchaser97:


DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 15.4N 138.3W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph





Remember Hurricane Cosme 2007???...it spent many days as a depression from July 18 to July 22
Big rain coming to S FL now!!:)
1670. spathy
...
Quoting spathy:


What year?


it's there. didn't read it, did you?
1672. VINNY04
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big rain coming to S FL now!!:)
allright! hope it comes up our way
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Joe. What's up?


Not much,just keeping tabs on things. A lot of moisture floating around the tropics,gonna see if anything other than 98E starts getting organised.
Do we have mjo now lol!:)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:




Remember Hurricane Cosme 2007...it spent many days as a depression from July 18 to July 22
Wow, did it bring anything to Hawaii. I didn't follow epac storms back then. I also didn't follow them on Twitter like I do now. Joke flag:ON
Quoting VINNY04:
Not in your life!!!!! Then that means Tampa will look like antarctica or somewthing like that


It happened before and it will happen again, lol. And places like Tampa will never look like Antarctica.
New Oceanic Nino Index added for April-May-June (-0.1).

This year values are very similar to 2006 season...

Can we assume a correlation with 2006 season?

1678. VINNY04
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Do we have mjo now lol!:)
Is that rotation in that system? it looks like its trying to form something.
1679. spathy
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


it's there. didn't read it, did you?


Nope!
Completely missed it somehow LOL
Quoting wxchaser97:
Wow, did it bring anything to Hawaii. I didn't follow epac storms back then. I also didn't follow them on Twitter like I do now. Joke flag:ON


naa.. not even clouds. I so wanted to blow that storm dead once and for all.
Quoting spathy:


Nope!
Completely missed it somehow LOL


lol
Quoting charlottefl:


The first time I saw it I honestly thought it was gonna crash, cause there's not an airport anywhere in town there.
You should see Charleston WV from the West, you dive towards the city, and you see no airport, then just over the crest of the ridge behind the city, hidden from view until you hit the ground is the airport, right behind the crest, its an intresting landing.
1683. VINNY04
Quoting RussianWinter:


It happened before and it will happen again, lol. And places like Tampa will never look like Antarctica.
just antarctica with skyscrapers
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Do we have mjo now lol!:)


"No MJO For You" Move Along!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What a dramatic change from earlier today. Now it deserves a red circle. Didn't earlier though.

Definitely deserves code red now. When do you think it will develope and how strong TA13? I think around Thursday morning/midday and minimal hurricane.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big rain coming to S FL now!!:)


Going to get rocky overnight on the east coast.
1688. spathy
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


"No MJO For You" Move Along!



Even some Mojo with extra lime would be good at this point!
Ya it rocky now for me
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Going to get rocky overnight on the east coast.
Quoting spathy:


Even some Mojo with extra lime would be good at this point!


Love those darned things.
1691. VINNY04
Plant City Weather at a Glance Updated 34 sec ago
Weather Station - report
South Plant City, Plant CityElevation
98 ft
Report Station You are about to report this weather station for bad data.

Please select the information which is incorrect and click 'Submit' otherwise click 'Cancel'.
Temperature Pressure Wind Forecast Submit — Cancel

Station Select Now
Light DrizzleTemperature
72.9 °F
Feels Like 72.9 °F Wind(mph)
0.0 Sunrise / Set
6:39 AM8:27 PMMoon
Waning GibbousMore Astronomy
Tonight
72 °F
Chance of T-storms
30% chance of precipitationTomorrow
91 °F
T-storms
60% chance of precipitationTomorrow Night
70 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitationThursday
91 | 70 °F
Chance of T-storms
50% chance of precipitationFriday
91 | 73 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitationSaturday
91 | 70 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitation
10-Day Forecast - Hourly Forecast Tomorrow is forecast to be Cooler than today.

Yeeeessssssss!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


"No MJO For You" Move Along!



The MJO clearly is in Indian ocean
1694. spathy
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Love those darned things.


Do you have any info as to where the insurance Cos are betting on weather damage this year?
1695. wxmod
Soot on Greenland ice sheet. MODIS today

If it develops and goes to FL we will be at 5 and 3! lol
Quoting stormchaser19:


The MJO is clearly in Indian ocean


You can almost set your watch to it in relation to cyclones. Funny the pulse weakens in the EPAC so do the storms.
Good evening...

New tropical Atlantic update on my blog just released...as I have been doing daily. I highlight a couple of areas in my intro statement tonight...none of which appear serious at this time...
1699. spathy
Quoting Jedkins01:


What was she doing there?
Trying to get the DJ to play an 8 track of Liza M ?
I feel ya, it is beautiful in SE MI and will be for the next few days. The heat will be returning but not as bad as before. Welcome to the blog.
Quoting andfol91:
I hope you all are enjoying that weather. It's beautiful in South Central PA. :D
000
FXUS62 KMFL 110235
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. HAVE TRENDED
POPS SCATTERED ALONG THE PALM BEACHES TO ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE
HRRR DOES SHOW THE CURRENT TREND WELL AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACTIVITY ONSHORE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS
THERE. THE MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE FLOW BELOW 700 MB HAS
GONE FROM EASTERLY THIS MORNING TO NOW SOUTHEASTERLY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY IN THE 6-15K FT LAYER/STEEPER LAPSE
RATES. STILL...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA


Current CAPE

Quoting VINNY04:
good Oklahoma needed some rain. they needed a break from this heat
Thanks.
Actually, a pretty normal summer this year. Nothing off the charts temp-wise and lots of good rain since last fall. Pockets of leftover drought may start to build again but this summer so far is just fine, fine superfine compared to 2011. Last summer, we'd had no rain to speak of since the previous October. Exceptional drought over two-thirds of the state. June, July and August with an occasional low temp below 90. Once the rainfall started last September, everything changed. Thank goodness.

Other areas of the U.S. may suffer this year. I feel for them.
NAM
36HR
Caribbean Storm Update July 10th 2012






Tormentas Del Caribe Julio 10 2012




source
Link
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


You can almost set your watch to it in relation to cyclones. Funny the pulse weakens in the EPAC so do the storms.


If the MJO comes to the West.Hem and africa in late july or beginning in August as is predicted, we are going to see a lot of invests getting out of africa
Those now south easterly winds indicate a weakening of the western flank of the high. Could be some "Mischief" brewing in the Gulf.
1708. VINNY04
I know this is off topic but does anyone else have the problem where the show/hide button dissapears off the side of someone elses blog entry? My computer keeps doing this and its frustrating!
1709. spathy
Quoting VINNY04:
I know this is off topic but does anyone else have the problem where the show/hide button dissapears off the side of someone elses blog entry? My computer keeps doing this and its frustrating!


Hit CTRL _ a couple of times.????
Climate Change May Lead to Fewer but More Violent Thunderstorms

ScienceDaily (July 10, 2012) — Researchers are working to identify exactly how a changing climate will impact specific elements of weather, such as clouds, rainfall, and lightning. A Tel Aviv University researcher has predicted that for every one degree Celsius of warming, there will be approximately a 10 percent increase in lightning activity.

This could have negative consequences in the form of flash floods, wild fires, or damage to power lines and other infrastructure, says Prof. Colin Price, Head of the Department of Geophysics, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at Tel Aviv University. In an ongoing project to determine the impact of climate change on the world's lightning and thunderstorm patterns, he and his colleagues have run computer climate models and studied real-life examples of climate change, such as the El Nino cycle in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, to determine how changing weather conditions impact storms.

An increase in lightning activity will have particular impact in areas that become warmer and drier as global warming progresses, including the Mediterranean and the Southern United States, according to the 2007 United Nations report on climate change. This research has been reported in the Journal of Geophysical Research and Atmospheric Research, and has been presented at the International Conference on Lightning Protection.

From the computer screen to the real world

When running their state-of-the-art computer models, Prof. Price and his fellow researchers assess climate conditions in a variety of real environments. First, the models are run with current atmospheric conditions to see how accurately they are able to depict the frequency and severity of thunderstorms and lightning in today's environment. Then, the researchers input changes to the model atmosphere, including the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (a major cause of global warming) to see how storms are impacted.

To test the lightning activity findings, Prof. Price compared their results with vastly differing real-world climates, such as dry Africa and the wet Amazon, and regions where climate change occurs naturally, such as Indonesia and Southeast Asia, where El Nino causes the air to become warmer and drier. The El Nino phenomenon is an optimal tool for measuring the impact of climate change on storms because the climate oscillates radically between years, while everything else in the environment remains constant.

"During El Nino years, which occur in the Pacific Ocean or Basin, Southeast Asia gets warmer and drier. There are fewer thunderstorms, but we found fifty percent more lightning activity," says Prof. Price. Typically, he says,we would expect drier conditions to produce less lightning. However, researchers also found that while there were fewer thunderstorms, the ones that did occur were more intense.

Fire and flood warning

An increase in lightning and intense thunderstorms can have severe implications for the environment, says Prof. Price. More frequent and intense wildfires could result in parts of the US, such as the Rockies, in which many fires are started by lightning. A drier environment could also lead fires to spread more widely and quickly, making them more devastating than ever before. These fires would also release far more smoke into the air than before.

Researchers predict fewer but more intense rainstorms in other regions, a change that could result in flash-flooding, says Prof. Price. In Italy and Spain, heavier storms are already causing increased run-off to rivers and the sea, and a lack of water being retained in groundwater and lakes. The same is true in the Middle East, where small periods of intense rain are threatening already scarce water resources.

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by American Friends of Tel Aviv University.
1711. nigel20
Quoting VINNY04:
I know this is off topic but does anyone else have the problem where the show/hide button dissapears off the side of someone elses blog entry? My computer keeps doing this and its frustrating!

No, I'm not sure what's causing your problem...
1712. spathy
"exactly how a changing climate will impact specific elements of weather, such as clouds",
Like clouds that can cool the temps.
They dont even know how that type of feedback will unfold in the future.
Or they ignore it.
1713. nigel20
Quoting sunlinepr:
Climate Change May Lead to Fewer but More Violent Thunderstorms

ScienceDaily (July 10, 2012) — Researchers are working to identify exactly how a changing climate will impact specific elements of weather, such as clouds, rainfall, and lightning. A Tel Aviv University researcher has predicted that for every one degree Celsius of warming, there will be approximately a 10 percent increase in lightning activity.

This could have negative consequences in the form of flash floods, wild fires, or damage to power lines and other infrastructure, says Prof. Colin Price, Head of the Department of Geophysics, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at Tel Aviv University. In an ongoing project to determine the impact of climate change on the world's lightning and thunderstorm patterns, he and his colleagues have run computer climate models and studied real-life examples of climate change, such as the El Nino cycle in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, to determine how changing weather conditions impact storms.

An increase in lightning activity will have particular impact in areas that become warmer and drier as global warming progresses, including the Mediterranean and the Southern United States, according to the 2007 United Nations report on climate change. This research has been reported in the Journal of Geophysical Research and Atmospheric Research, and has been presented at the International Conference on Lightning Protection.

From the computer screen to the real world

When running their state-of-the-art computer models, Prof. Price and his fellow researchers assess climate conditions in a variety of real environments. First, the models are run with current atmospheric conditions to see how accurately they are able to depict the frequency and severity of thunderstorms and lightning in today's environment. Then, the researchers input changes to the model atmosphere, including the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (a major cause of global warming) to see how storms are impacted.

To test the lightning activity findings, Prof. Price compared their results with vastly differing real-world climates, such as dry Africa and the wet Amazon, and regions where climate change occurs naturally, such as Indonesia and Southeast Asia, where El Nino causes the air to become warmer and drier. The El Nino phenomenon is an optimal tool for measuring the impact of climate change on storms because the climate oscillates radically between years, while everything else in the environment remains constant.

"During El Nino years, which occur in the Pacific Ocean or Basin, Southeast Asia gets warmer and drier. There are fewer thunderstorms, but we found fifty percent more lightning activity," says Prof. Price. Typically, he says,we would expect drier conditions to produce less lightning. However, researchers also found that while there were fewer thunderstorms, the ones that did occur were more intense.

Fire and flood warning

An increase in lightning and intense thunderstorms can have severe implications for the environment, says Prof. Price. More frequent and intense wildfires could result in parts of the US, such as the Rockies, in which many fires are started by lightning. A drier environment could also lead fires to spread more widely and quickly, making them more devastating than ever before. These fires would also release far more smoke into the air than before.

Researchers predict fewer but more intense rainstorms in other regions, a change that could result in flash-flooding, says Prof. Price. In Italy and Spain, heavier storms are already causing increased run-off to rivers and the sea, and a lack of water being retained in groundwater and lakes. The same is true in the Middle East, where small periods of intense rain are threatening already scarce water resources.

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by American Friends of Tel Aviv University.


Very interesting article...Thanks for posting it, Sunline!
1714. VINNY04
Well i dont know what to do about it but now i cant quote anyone or nothing so i got to sign out. maybe if i reboot my pc then it will work
Post 1714: I am having the same issues, also cant bold, italicize, link, or post images. Happened on the last page as well.
1716. VINNY04
What did you do about it? justwait for a new page?
Quoting RussianWinter:
I know this is a bit off topic, but I was researching some meteorological history and I was wondering how often do events like the great blizzard of 1899 happen.
I'd sure like to see that in my life time; snow in Miami!


I have also found the occurrence of snow (and other frozen precip.) in Florida, especially Miami, to be an interesting subject to research. Snow is assumed to have fallen in the Miami area as a result of the 1899 blizzard. Also, there is also a record of snow having fallen on the northern coast of Cuba sometime during the 1800s as well as a record in the Bermuda Gazette that snow fell in Bermuda in March of 1784.

Snow flurries were also reported across South Florida (including Miami and Miami Beach) during January 1977. This same cold wave brought a mix of rain and snow to Freeport in the Bahamas. Finally, in January 2010, the cold wave, which I remember very well, brought sleet and snow to areas of Florida as far south as W. Palm Beach to Kendall, a suburb of Miami.
i noted it has been a vary wet in some parts of Alaska so far this summer
1719. bappit
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Those now south easterly winds indicate a weakening of the western flank of the high. Could be some "Mischief" brewing in the Gulf.

The proper technical term is high jinks. The usage dates back to 1825.

"boisterous or rambunctious carryings-on : carefree antics or horseplay"

Also, see:

buffoonery, clownery, clowning, foolery, high jinks (also hijinks), horsing around, monkey business, monkeying, monkeyshine(s), roughhouse, roughhousing, shenanigan(s), skylarking, slapstick, tomfoolery

...and a thanks to Mary and Webster.
1720. VINNY04
Ok everyone im signing out for today. hope your blogging problems clear up tonight. have a good one yall.
1716 thats all I can do. You can still post images and links if you know the basic format. Images are and links I don't know.
1722. nigel20
Quoting VINNY04:
Ok everyone im signing out for today. hope your blogging problems clear up tonight. have a good one yall.

Same to you!
Quoting spathy:


What was she doing there?
Trying to get the DJ to play an 8 track of Liza M ?


I have no idea, all I know is I hate that song and it plays all day at work, so I hate it even more, lol.

I'm convinced though that at least half the music on popular radio is designed to destroy brain cells
guess oh was the Anonymous Raw General Manager was on monday night raw



Quoting SFLWeatherman:
NAM
36HR

Interesting...I mentioned the possibility of an east Gulf of Mexico disturbance on my new blog update...but I was thinking more like 48 hours from now...
1720, hope problems clear for you and me. good nite to you.
Can Emilia rebound or is she done for?
Nasty line about to move into PBCty

Quoting wxchaser97:
TS Jose

Any similarities
TS Daniel

Oye...I still don't like Tropical Storm Jose...
1729. Patrap

Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

Look closely at the Eastern GOM

click image for Loop

700mb Vort



You can see here the high has indeed retreated off the east coast of FL.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Have you saved money doing that? or have you not made up the cost in saved electric bills yet?


So far I've saved $290,000 plus ten years of avoided electricity bill minus the cost of a new set of batteries.

PG&E wanted $300,000 to run power from the highway to my house. ($16/foot * 3.5 miles.) Spending $10k for a solar system and backup generator was pretty much a no-brainer.

Anytime you're a quarter mile or more from the nearest power line and you're going to have to pay for the hookup then you may find it cheaper to stay off the grid. (The way solar panel prices have fallen the critical distance might now be less than a quarter mile.)

--

If you're on the grid and want to know if adding solar makes sense the best thing to do is to calcualte the LCOE - Levelized Cost of Energy.

Here's a handy tool for doing that...

Link

At first leave the defaults for Periods (20 years) and discount rate (4%).

Enter the price for a kilowatt of solar. Right now the US average is $4.24/Watt (or perhaps down a bit). Discount that number by 30% to take into account the federal subsidy. Enter 2968 in the Capital Cost box. ($4.24 * 1,000 * .7)

Look up your average daily solar hours. Most of the US gets at least 4.5 hours. Divide by 24 to get your Capacity Factor (4.5/24 = 19%)

Set Fixed and Variable O&M costs to zero. You might have some, but they should be slight.

Set Heat Rate and Fuel Cost to zero. You ain't running a steam boiler.

Put in your cost for electricity. The US average is about $0.12/kWh. Put in your estimate of the future rate of inflation, 3%, for example.

When I put those numbers in I get the cost of renewable energy to be $0.134/kWh and the 20 year average cost of grid power to be $0.16/kWh.

That says that over 20 years you'll pay 2.4 cents per kWh less if you install solar than if you purchase from the grid.

What it doesn't tell you is that you should expect 30 or more years of power out of your system. The oldest installed system that I know of has been running for 30 years and is still going strong. It's lost a bit of performance and <2% of the panels failed and had to be replaced.

That's essentially ten years of free power after the 20 year period, with no end in sight.
1732. MTWX
The pop up storms that came through here earlier brought some welcome, yet short term, relief from the heat... The temp dropped from 93 to 73 in about 45 minutes!! Man it felt great!

Quoting 1728. NCHurricane2009
Oye...I still don't like Tropical Storm Jose...

I don't even know why they named it. Besides Daniel being bigger they look the same now.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
700mb Vort



You can see here the high has indeed retreated off the east coast of FL.



Wow...there is more mid-level vorticity in the SE Gulf of Mexico than I thought...which I think is caused by split flow upper divergence between the GOM upper low and Bahamas upper trough. You can also see the vorticity over the eastern Bahamas with a tropical wave. I think the east Gulf could get more interesting in the next 48 hours...especially when that tropical wave arrives...
1736. nigel20
Have a wonderfully night everyone...I'm off to bed
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
700mb Vort



You can see here the high has indeed retreated off the east coast of FL.

do you think we can get an invest out of it?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Wow...there is more mid-level vorticity in the SE Gulf of Mexico than I thought...which I think is caused by split flow upper divergence between the GOM upper low and Bahamas upper trough. You can also see the vorticity over the eastern Bahamas with a tropical wave. I think the east Gulf could get more interesting in the next 48 hours...especially when that tropical wave arrives...


Something is going on in the eastern GOM.
Quoting nigel20:
Have a wonderfully night everyone...I'm off to bed


You too Nigel.
Quoting allancalderini:
do you think we can get an invest out of it?


Not sure ATM.
Emilia loop: Link

Pacific loop: Link

Atlantic loop:Link
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Something is going on in the eastern GOM.


This was my description of the east GOM in my blog update released 11:05 PM tonight....

"P6...Caribbean upper vorticity has elongated into a few features while wedged between the Central America upper ridge in paragraph P5...eastern Caribbean upper ridge in paragraph P7...and North America upper ridge in paragraph P1. This upper vorticity has an upper vortex in the central Caribbean. This upper vorticity also consists of an upper low in the southern Gulf of Mexico...and upper trough over the Bahamas...with split flow divergence at the boundary between these two eroding the Gulf surface ridge in paragraph P1...and supporting t-storms across Florida and eastern Gulf of Mexico. GFS computer model shows the southern Gulf upper low and Bahamas upper trough persisting...so I interpret that the favorable upper divergence between the two should persist. The tropical wave in paragraph P9 should arrive to this favorable upper divergence in the next 48 hours...so I now believe a tropical disturbance is possible in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by that time."

Quoting allancalderini:
do you think we can get an invest out of it?

Not out of the question...personally I'd like to see things come toghether before making that call...
Quoting nigel20:
Have a wonderfully night everyone...I'm off to bed

Good night back at ya...
Finally, after 3 days of storms coming to the county line and just dissipating we finally got some heavy downpours and some nice lightning to go with it going on right now. Might get a inch or so outta it at Canyon Lake.
Good night everyone!
Completely off-topic, but is anyone considering pursuing a career in meteorology?
1747: yes but Im in high school
1749. pcola57
Re#1731..
I can't get that Link to work..
Would really like to explore more about it..
1748- Just graduated- not planning on studying it but just wondering if anyone has gone through with that/ what they're doing with it now.
Quoting spathy:


Do you have any info as to where the insurance Cos are betting on weather damage this year?


I'm not seeing where at the moment. Most the climate wagering is about these high temps & the sea ice melt, but there is the Cat 3 or higher pool in play..
1752. Tygor
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
Finally, after 3 days of storms coming to the county line and just dissipating we finally got some heavy downpours and some nice lightning to go with it going on right now. Might get a inch or so outta it at Canyon Lake.


Hopefully it makes its way down towards the city :)
Quoting SETexas74:
Completely off-topic, but is anyone considering pursuing a career in meteorology?



Try asking that next year
@Tazmanian- What are you planning to do with it? If I wasn't worried about being poor I'd love to go down that path!
Quoting SETexas74:
@Tazmanian- What are you planning to do with it? If I wasn't worried about being poor I'd love to go down that path!

Ok cool sorry about that good night
the far north getting kinda tropical .



Special Weather Statements for Northwest Territories

AWCN11 CWNT 110043
Summary weather statement issued by Environment Canada Tuesday 10 July 2012.

Several maximum temperature records were set today as the Northwest
Territories were under the influence of a strong upper ridge.


Location new record previous record records
Max temp record year began
(Celsius)
------------------------------------------------- ----------------
Fort Providence 33.6 29.0 2000 1995
Fort Smith airport 35.1 31.0 1990 1944
Hay River airport 34.3 32.2 1975 1944
Lac la martre 31.4 29.4 1975 1974
Yellowknife airport 31.9 28.9 1975 1942



These reports have not been quality controlled and are considered
unofficial.


End

temps a few hundred miles from north pole

last 24 hrs

Alert Airport
Past 24 Hour ConditionsMetric Units Date / Time
(EDT) Conditions Temp (°F) Humidity (%) Dew Point (°F) Wind (mph) Pressure (inches) Visibility (miles)
11 July 2012
1:00 Partly Cloudy 40 93 38 NW 6 29.70 15
00:00 Partly Cloudy 40 93 38 NW 6 29.71 15
10 July 2012
23:00 Partly Cloudy 39 88 36 WNW 7 29.72 15
22:00 Mainly Sunny 37 90 34 NW 3 29.73 15
21:00 N/A 39 86 35 E 2 29.77 N/A
20:00 N/A 38 88 35 E 2 29.78 N/A
19:00 N/A 37 89 34 ENE 3 29.80 N/A
18:00 N/A 37 89 35 ENE 3 29.81 N/A
17:00 Mostly Cloudy 38 86 34 E 5 29.82 15
16:00 Partly Cloudy 37 86 34 E 3 29.84 15
15:00 Mainly Sunny 38 86 34 ESE 5 29.85 15
14:00 Partly Cloudy 38 86 34 E 6 29.88 15
13:00 Mainly Sunny 38 86 34 E 6 29.89 15
12:00 Mainly Sunny 37 87 34 E 6 29.91 15
11:00 Mainly Sunny 40 86 36 ENE 2 29.93 15
10:00 Mainly Sunny 40 80 35 ENE 3 29.95 15
9:00 Mainly Sunny 40 84 36 N 5 29.97 15
8:00 Sunny 39 89 36 N 5 29.98 15
7:00 Sunny 41 81 35 NNW 3 30.00 15
6:00 N/A 43 82 38 ENE 2 30.02 N/A
5:00 N/A 42 79 36 E 2 30.04 N/A
4:00 N/A 41 81 35 calm 30.06 N/A
3:00 N/A 41 80 35 ENE 3 30.07 N/A
2:00 N/A 41 79 35 ENE 3 30.09 N/A
1:00 N/A 41 80 35 ENE 4 30.09 N/A


A lot of Low's out west.....lol
Night crew sleeping on the job?
1761. JLPR2
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Night crew sleeping on the job?


Eh... not much tropical action to speak of.
1762. JLPR2
Since there's not much activity I might as well post this...

I got my 42nd AC here in Wunderphotos. :D
Here it is, would appreacite ratings or comments.

Photo Link, go here to rate it.
Quoting Tygor:


Hopefully it makes its way down towards the city :)


It weakened as it got closer to the city but new storms seem to be popping up just south of Downtown.
Gulf priming instability back up for later season action, what are the chances waves that want to develop; do it later this year because lower than average SST's off of Africa. They would then quite possibly take the southern steering currents right up into the Gulf. That would be unfortunate because the Gulf states and Texas would be the likely targets. Southern Florida is under the gun also and they haven't seen anything in quite a bit now. Possibly just need the first couple of waves to form to go NE and away like past years and that pattern could repeat, which while boring to some, beats the always sad fatalities that come with landfalls. EPAC enjoying the season so far, Hurricane train there has been enjoyable to watch.
Completely off-topic, but is anyone considering pursuing a career in meteorology?

I am.
I've been fascinated to hurricanes since Katrina made landfall, when I was 8. I started to post on WU since when I was 9. Now I'm awaiting my 15th birthday. I still have a lot of interest in tropical cyclones, and I hope I get a meteorology degree.
Good luck Bobby get as close to 4.0 as possible and get a scholarship, college just too expensive these days.
Quoting SETexas74:
Completely off-topic, but is anyone considering pursuing a career in meteorology?


I toyed with the idea when I headed back to school in '07. I was surprised to find there were few schools in Florida that offered programs (especially) in meteorology. I can only think of Florida State, University of Miami, and Florida Institute of Technology, offhand.

In the end I went back to my original love and subject of my prior career, Computer Science. A year into the PhD program now at Florida Atlantic University.
When I read Jeff's still skeptical section on climate change I can't help but get frustrated. 97% of climate experts say it's a man driven change and yet the public remains in latest polls on the subject at around 35-45% of Americans don't believe in GW. Why in the world would our citizenry be so out of touch with such a vital scientific fact? Sarcastic only there, I know why.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Good luck Bobby get as close to 4.0 as possible and get a scholarship, college just too expensive these days.

Thanks! I'll do my best.
1773. LargoFl
1774. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
556 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

FLZ071>074-111045-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
556 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 645 AM EDT

* AT 553 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HIALEAH TO
3 MILES WEST OF PENNSUCO TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MICCOSUKEE
RESORT...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
HIALEAH GARDENS...
MIAMI LAKES...
MIAMI GARDENS...
INTERSECTION KROME AND U.S. 27...
PINES BLVD AND UNIVERSITY DRIVE...
MIRAMAR...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2580 8022 2578 8038 2558 8055 2575 8071
2585 8076 2609 8055 2605 8026 2594 8022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0956Z 153DEG 13KT 2589 8031 2590 8044
2573 8059

$$

60
1775. LargoFl
1776. MahFL
Quoting BobWallace:


So far I've saved....


Hmmm, you make many assumptions helping your calculation look favorable, that might not occur for the majority of people.
1777. LargoFl
1778. MahFL
Quoting SETexas74:
Completely off-topic, but is anyone considering pursuing a career in meteorology?


How on earth is that completely off topic ? This is a weather blog.
1779. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..............................this is the 4th day in a row they have a possibility forming off the carolina coastline, will have to watch this area in the days to come
1780. LargoFl
Quoting MahFL:


How on earth is that completely off topic ? This is a weather blog.
..........LOL..good morning
Quoting LargoFl:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
556 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

FLZ071>074-111045-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
556 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012


That may have been about as closest as I have ever been to being electrocuted. #lightningbolt

Sitting out on my back porch, minding my own business, crafting a project proposal for Artificial Neural Networks when suddenly everything turned white and a bolt cracked in front of me. I reckon it was kind of close, because afterwards I noticed that my jaw and teeth hurt on one side and my right shoulder and hip were curled into my body and spasming. Perhaps I should go inside. Have to head to campus in this weather soon anyway :)

1782. LargoFl
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


That may have been about as closest as I have ever been to being electrocuted. #lightningbolt

Sitting out on my back porch, minding my own business, crafting a project proposal for Artificial Neural Networks when suddenly everything turned white and a bolt cracked in front of me. I reckon it was kind of close, because afterwards I noticed that my jaw and teeth hurt on one side and my right shoulder and hip were curled into my body and spasming. Perhaps I should go inside. Have to head to campus in this weather soon anyway :)

..omg, your lucky to still be around, if it was that close maybe you should get checked up, you never know what might have happened inside your body,good luck to you
1783. LargoFl
..going to be a stormy day today, they say worse than yesterday, we shall see
1784. LargoFl
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
temps a few hundred miles from north pole

last 24 hrs

Alert Airport
Past 24 Hour ConditionsMetric Units Date / Time
(EDT) Conditions Temp (°F) Humidity (%) Dew Point (°F) Wind (mph) Pressure (inches) Visibility (miles)
11 July 2012
1:00 Partly Cloudy 40 93 38 NW 6 29.70 15
00:00 Partly Cloudy 40 93 38 NW 6 29.71 15
10 July 2012
23:00 Partly Cloudy 39 88 36 WNW 7 29.72 15
22:00 Mainly Sunny 37 90 34 NW 3 29.73 15
21:00 N/A 39 86 35 E 2 29.77 N/A
20:00 N/A 38 88 35 E 2 29.78 N/A
19:00 N/A 37 89 34 ENE 3 29.80 N/A
18:00 N/A 37 89 35 ENE 3 29.81 N/A
17:00 Mostly Cloudy 38 86 34 E 5 29.82 15
16:00 Partly Cloudy 37 86 34 E 3 29.84 15
15:00 Mainly Sunny 38 86 34 ESE 5 29.85 15
14:00 Partly Cloudy 38 86 34 E 6 29.88 15
13:00 Mainly Sunny 38 86 34 E 6 29.89 15
12:00 Mainly Sunny 37 87 34 E 6 29.91 15
11:00 Mainly Sunny 40 86 36 ENE 2 29.93 15
10:00 Mainly Sunny 40 80 35 ENE 3 29.95 15
9:00 Mainly Sunny 40 84 36 N 5 29.97 15
8:00 Sunny 39 89 36 N 5 29.98 15
7:00 Sunny 41 81 35 NNW 3 30.00 15
6:00 N/A 43 82 38 ENE 2 30.02 N/A
5:00 N/A 42 79 36 E 2 30.04 N/A
4:00 N/A 41 81 35 calm 30.06 N/A
3:00 N/A 41 80 35 ENE 3 30.07 N/A
2:00 N/A 41 79 35 ENE 3 30.09 N/A
1:00 N/A 41 80 35 ENE 4 30.09 N/A


And we should draw what conclusions from this data?
1786. LargoFl
...................gee the 5 day rainfall forecast,going to be a stormy next 5 days in the south, but some of these area's need the rains
Quoting JupiterKen:


And we should draw what conclusions from this data?
That it's been very warm around much of the Arctic this year--Siberia, northern Canada, northern Europe, the North Atlantic, and so on--and all that heat has helped the ice there decline at an unprecedented pace. It almost certainly won't all vanish this year; there remains only a very small chance of that happening. But it'll be gone in summer within a few years. At least, that's the conclusion most scientists would draw.
1788. LargoFl
Gee Houston is getting hammered.....................FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC039-239-321-481-111230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0035.120711T1024Z-120711T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
524 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 517 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LAKE JACKSON...BAY CITY...FREEPORT...CLUTE...EDNA...PALACIOS...
SWEENY...RICHWOOD...BRAZORIA...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...JONES CREEK...
GANADO...VAN VLECK...OYSTER CREEK...MARKHAM...SURFSIDE BEACH...LA
WARD AND QUINTANA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY.
MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN
AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 2913 9527 2895 9528 2886 9539 2888 9539
2878 9559 2872 9619 2875 9618 2870 9621
2868 9639 2871 9638 2874 9640 2872 9643
2876 9645 2871 9643 2872 9666 2882 9672
2885 9670 2892 9679 2903 9686

$$
1789. LargoFl
1790. LargoFl
SO WHAT if ALL the Artic Ice Melts?....read this......................Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane - a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide - have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region.

The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years.

In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Igor Semiletov of the International Arctic Research Centre at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, who led the 8th joint US-Russia cruise of the East Siberian Arctic seas, said that he has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed.

"Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing," Dr Semiletov said.

"I was most impressed by the sheer scale and the high density of the plumes. Over a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area there should be thousands of them," he said.

Scientists estimate that there are hundreds of millions of tons of methane gas locked away beneath the Arctic permafrost, which extends from the mainland into the seabed of the relatively shallow sea of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

One of the greatest fears is that with the disappearance of the Arctic sea ice in summer, and rapidly rising temperatures across the entire Arctic region, which are already melting the Siberian permafrost, the trapped methane could be suddenly released into the atmosphere leading to rapid and severe climate change.

Dr Semiletov's team published a study in 2010 estimating that the methane emissions from this region were in the region of 8 million tons a year but the latest expedition suggests this is a significant underestimate of the true scale of the phenomenon.

In late summer, the Russian research vessel Academician Lavrentiev conducted an extensive survey of about 10,000 square miles of sea off the East Siberian coast, in cooperating with the University of Georgia Athens. Scientists deployed four highly sensitive instruments, both seismic and acoustic, to monitor the "fountains" or plumes of methane bubbles rising to the sea surface from beneath the seabed.

"In a very small area, less than 10,000 square miles, we have counted more than 100 fountains, or torch-like structures, bubbling through the water column and injected directly into the atmosphere from the seabed," Dr Semiletov said.

"We carried out checks at about 115 stationary points and discovered methane fields of a fantastic scale - I think on a scale not seen before. Some of the plumes were a kilometre or more wide and the emissions went directly into the atmosphere - the concentration was a hundred times higher than normal," he said.

Dr Semiletov released his findings for the first time last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. He is now preparing the study for publication in a scientific journal.

The total amount of methane stored beneath the Arctic is calculated to be greater than the overall quantity of carbon locked up in global coal reserves so there is intense interest in the stability of these deposits as the polar region warms at a faster rate than other places on earth.

Natalia Shakhova, a colleague at the International Arctic Research Centre at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said that the Arctic is becoming a major source of atmospheric methane and the concentrations of the powerful greenhouse gas have risen dramatically since pre-industrial times, largely due to agriculture.

However, with the melting of Arctic sea ice and permafrost, the huge stores of methane that have been locked away underground for many thousands of years might be released over a relatively short period of time, Dr Shakhova said.

"I am concerned about this process, I am really concerned. But no-one can tell the timescale of catastrophic releases. There is a probability of future massive releases might occur within the decadal scale, but to be more accurate about how high that probability is, we just don't know," Dr Shakova said.

"Methane released from the Arctic shelf deposits contributes to global increase and the best evidence for that is the higher concentration of atmospheric methane above the Arctic Ocean," she said.

"The concentration of atmospheric methane increased unto three times in the past two centuries from 0.7 parts per million to 1.7ppm, and in the Arctic to 1.9ppm. That's a huge increase, between two and three times, and this has never happened in the history of the planet," she added.

Each methane molecule is about 70 times more potent in terms of trapping heat than a molecule of carbon dioxide. However, because methane it broken down more rapidly in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, scientist calculate that methane is about 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a hundred-year cycle.
The Daily Wind-Up
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
Which One?
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/
http://www.thedwu.com/

Quoting Tribucanes:
When I read Jeff's still skeptical section on climate change I can't help but get frustrated. 97% of climate experts say it's a man driven change and yet the public remains in latest polls on the subject at around 35-45% of Americans don't believe in GW. Why in the world would our citizenry be so out of touch with such a vital scientific fact? Sarcastic only there, I know why.


Scientists rely on data for a very short period in our globes history. It is hard for people to believe that based on that data that it is actually fact. Just like religion, scientists want to disprove that Jesus was the son of God by using fact when it is very much based on faith. In both cases, people are not going to believe science.
1793. LargoFl
Quoting jrweatherman:


Scientists rely on data for a very short period in our globes history. It is hard for people to believe that based on that data that it is actually fact. Just like religion, scientists want to disprove that Jesus was the son of God by using fact when it is very much based on faith. In both cases, people are not going to believe science.
..maybe its because people dont actually see, a massive abrupt change around them,climate change? whats that? I dont see any changes.....thats why people dont believe it, the weather I personally saw 50-55 years ago, is NOT the weather i see around me today..yet the kids today have no idea, what I am talking about, they have never experienced it themselves, so..people will NOT believe it untill..the BIG change comes..and if it is a slow slow process..maybe they never will.
Quoting Neapolitan:
That it's been very warm around much of the Arctic this year--Siberia, northern Canada, northern Europe, the North Atlantic, and so on--and all that heat has helped the ice there decline at an unprecedented pace. It almost certainly won't all vanish this year; there remains only a very small chance of that happening. But it'll be gone in summer within a few years. At least, that's the conclusion most scientists would draw.


Too bad you are not a scientist. These temperatures are well within their average for this date. Always the alarmist.
...EMILIA REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 11
Location: 14.6°N 116.6°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.6N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.9N 118.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.8N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 17.2N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 17.8N 133.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 18.3N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH



1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Quoting JupiterKen:


Too bad you are not a scientist. These temperatures are well within their average for this date. Always the alarmist.
"These temperatures are well within their average for this date."

Really?
Special Weather Statements for Northwest Territories

AWCN11 CWNT 110043
Summary weather statement issued by Environment Canada Tuesday 10 July 2012.

Several maximum temperature records were set today as the Northwest Territories were under the influence of a strong upper ridge.

Location new record previous record records
Max temp record year began
(Celsius)
------------------------------------------------- ----------------
Fort Providence 33.6 29.0 2000 1995
Fort Smith airport 35.1 31.0 1990 1944
Hay River airport 34.3 32.2 1975 1944
Lac la martre 31.4 29.4 1975 1974
Yellowknife airport 31.9 28.9 1975 1942
Those looking on without ideological blinders will recognize that "maximum temperature records" are by definition not "well within their average". Nice try, though!
Quoting Neapolitan:
"These temperatures are well within their average for this date."

Really?Those looking on without ideological blinders will recognize that "maximum temperature records" are by definition not "well within their average". Nice try, though!


Did you look at the historical data for the Alert Airport location or just cherry-pick (as usual).

I am sure you have perused this article

Link

which is referenced in this post

Link

Same old Nea... blinded by dogma.
All of this activity in S FL is going to transition into C FL as the morning goes on and as it moves up in our direction daytime heating will ad more fuel to produce strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the orlando area between 12pm to 3pm so get ready as this should be an areawide rain event later today.




Good Morning, all.
Quoting JupiterKen:


Did you look at the historical data for the Alert Airport location or just cherry-pick (as usual).

I am sure you have perused this article

Link

which is referenced in this post

Link

Same old Nea... blinded by dogma.
Ooooh, I'm so sorry, but my antivirus software came with the optional anti-idiocy package pre-installed, so I'm unable to open Watts' site. Say, I can send you a download link if you'd like to install it on your own computer; it'll probably help clear up some of your confusion. ;-)
HPC might want to consider uping these totals across FL as there has been some excessive rains with these thunderstorms coming thru here.

Quoting BahaHurican:


Good Morning, all.


I pointed this out yesterday that this area near S FL is interesting and infact it appears to be getting better organized this morning with a weak low forming near Key West.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Ooooh, I'm so sorry, but my antivirus software came with the optional anti-idiocy package pre-installed, so I'm unable to open Watts' site. Say, I can send you a download link if you'd like to install it on your own computer; it'll probably help clear up some of your confusion. ;-)



Same as it ever was....
A gust front passed through Naples from the south a short while ago. This is an image of the three-layer shelf cloud that accompanied it. I had only my iPad camera and no time to get to a better vantage point, as it was moving quickly, so it's not a great shot. But, still, nicer to wake up to than yet another cloudless day...

Naples
Already have thunderstorms forming near the Volusia County and Brevard County coast and coming ashore ahead of this activity coming up from West Palm Beach.

Quoting MahFL:


How on earth is that completely off topic ? This is a weather blog.

-He was thinking about wrestling...that's why he thinks he's off topic....LOL.
Quoting Neapolitan:
A gust front passed through Naples from the south a short while ago. This is an image of the three-layer shelf cloud that accompanied it. I had only my iPad camera and no time to get to a better vantage point, as it was moving quickly, so it's not a great shot. But, still, nicer to wake up to than yet another cloudless day...

Naples


Shot came out nice Nea! Thanks for sharing.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/ 2011-peterson-et-al.pdf


Trying to get beyond the standard scientific disclaimer that no single weather event can be pinned on global warming, government scientists on Tuesday unveiled a new framework: what are the odds of a specific event being impacted by warming?

From msnbc:

They tested it on several extreme events in 2011 -- a strong La Nina year -- and, in the case of the record Texas drought, concluded that such severe dry spells are 20 more times likely during a La Nina year today than a La Nina in the 1960s, before greenhouse gas emissions jumped.

"Conditions leading to droughts such as the one that occurred in Texas in 2011 are, at least in the case of temperature, distinctly more probable than they were 40-50 years ago," researchers concluded in a new study.

"It's quite striking,"Peter Stott told reporters Tuesday at a briefing organized by his employer, Britain's weather service, and the U.S. National Climatic Data Center.
"We can now quantify the changed odds" due to climate change and thus start to assess risk levels, added Stott, who edited the study along with peers from the U.S. data center.


http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/10/1266 5235-2011-texas-drought-was-20-times-more-likely-d ue-to-warming-study-says?lite
I'm not quite sure why we're all so happy to be rained on today, but to all,

Enjoy!

Gotta run! lol
It is beginning took like there will e no cyclonic activity in the tropicl atlantic Gomex and the caribbean basin for the month of July. none of the computer models are showing up anything imminent ,and the long range prjection is not even showing anything as the 1st week of august.
Quoting stoormfury:
It is beginning took like there will e no cyclonic activity in the tropicl atlantic Gomex and the caribbean basin for the month of July. none of the computer models are showing up anything imminent ,and the long range prjection is not even showing anything as the 1st week of august.
You know these things can change on a dime.
Okay, I borrowed a denialist colleague's computer for a moment (after first carefully wiping the dried spittle from his monitor and disinfecting his keyboard) and browsed to the Watts article. I see right away Watts made, as usual, several glaring errors, the first being that even were the 1-in-1.6 million number incorrect (which it's not), it wasn't Dr. Masters who came up with it, but the good folks at the NCDC.

Second, Mr. Willis "I Don't Allow Myself To Be Bothered By Facts" Eschenbach's attempt to shoehorn the remarkable heat into a Poisson distribution completely ignored the fact that the top three hottest 12-month periods in U.S. history have ended in the past three months, while four of the top six have ended in the past four months, and every one of the top 12 warmest annual periods in U.S. history have ended since 2000.

That's "normal"?

It's always fun watching denialists twist themselves into pretzels in their endlessly feeble and always futile attempts to "prove" that the planet isn't warming. If we were grading based on perseverance, they'd all get high marks. Unfortunately, however, there's much more at play...
Quoting stoormfury:
It is beginning took like there will e no cyclonic activity in the tropicl atlantic Gomex and the caribbean basin for the month of July. none of the computer models are showing up anything imminent ,and the long range prjection is not even showing anything as the 1st week of august.




At the conclusion of "Debby", I predicted dead until the 3rd week of August.
Just becuase a computer model doesn't show any tropical developement over the next 2 weeks doesn't mean it can't happen. There are things sometimes that models don't see very well kinda like the situation near S FL as this area is looking interesting and could be mentioned by the NHC on the next 2. Again this is the time of year to watch everything as sometimes you never know.

Link
Good Morning. Enclosing the am NCEP Caribbean desk outlook. Not much there. Looking at the radar loops at the rain across South Florida and the heavy convection on the Texas Gulf Coast slowly moving towards LA to the east. Looks like a squall line is trying to organize and move towards coastal LA and New Orleans area later this morning.


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
629 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A BROAD TUTT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...IT SUSTAINS MID/UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN WHILE SUSTAINING A CAP INVERSION AROUND 600/700 HPA. THIS TROUGH IS TO MEANDER NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY ON THURSDAY...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. AS IT ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE CAP INVERSION IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY ERODE...AND MOISTURE IS TO START POOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH FORECASTED PWAT TO PEAK AT 40-45MM.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS RESPONDING TO CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...TRANSITIONING TO A WETTER PATTERN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BUT...THEY SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE ON FRIDAY WHEN IN COMBINATION WITH INDUCED PERTURBATION IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES STRONG MESO-SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON 24HRS AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY. THE NAM SHOWS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAXIMA OF NEARLY 50MM ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO. strong>HISTORICALLY...THE TUTT/TUTT LOWS TEND TO BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS. SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)



Also looks like PR area will get some more rain on Friday.
Rain all day for me!!! lol
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Just becuase a computer model doesn't show any tropical developement over the next 2 weeks doesn't mean it can't happen. There are things sometimes that models don't see very well kinda like the situation near S FL as this area is looking interesting and could be mentioned by the NHC on the next 2. Again this is the time of year to watch everything as sometimes you never know.

Link


That area by South Florida is baroclinic in nature and the the convection is being enhanced by the TUTT low cell just off the coast near the Bahamas. You can see it on link below at the 250mb level.

Link

1821. 7544
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Just becuase a computer model doesn't show any tropical developement over the next 2 weeks doesn't mean it can't happen. There are things sometimes that models don't see very well kinda like the situation near S FL as this area is looking interesting and could be mentioned by the NHC on the next 2. Again this is the time of year to watch everything as sometimes you never know.

Link

agree and good morning all looks like the area just south of south fl could be worth watching today keeps getting more and more convection all moving toward so fl today so keep one eye on this for today to see if any anything xtra can come from this blob
Is there a low pressure forming?????
Very interesting as winds here across C FL are coming out of the NE this morning when they are supposed to be coming from the SSE. There is for sure something organizing near S FL. Could this be a Claudette from 09?

Quoting 7544:


Winds have switched to the NE in Orlando.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Very interesting as winds here across C FL are coming out of the NE this morning when they are supposed to be coming from the SSE. There is for sure something organizing near S FL. Could this be a Claudette from 09?

I was talking about this possibility yesterday.This seems to also be in a high pressure area just like she was.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I was talking about this possibility yesterday.This seems to also be in a high pressure area just like she was.


There is no vorticity at the lower levels either. No invest here.

Link
Local Mets in S Fl mentioned the low in the area for today. However I don't think they anticipated how much moisture might be available. I think there is a low in the GOM also which may be the reason for the wind directions in C FL being from the NE.
Quoting weaverwxman:
Local Mets in S Fl mentioned the low in the area for today. However I don't think they anticipated how much moisture might be available. I think there is a low in the GOM also which may be the reason for the wind directions in C FL being from the NE.


Yeah weird. I noticed this morning coming into work and then I looked at the weather obs around C FL and many others are showing a NE wind as well. Which is interesting because on radar it does appear that a low is forming south of Key Largo.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Winds have switched to the NE in Orlando.
winds.variable.thunderstorms.in.the.area..e.cen.f l.
Can someone post the video out of Key Largo I don't see a low forming.
Quoting islander101010:
winds.variable.thunderstorms.in.the.area..e.cen.f l.


Orlando International Airport
NE 3

Orlando / Sanford Airport
NE 3

Leesburg International Airport
NE 5

New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport
NE 5
1833. icmoore
Good morning. After the bad storms the Bay area received yesterday the met said he thinks this afternoon will be very active, too and sees no change for 5 to 7 days.

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
Can someone post the video out of Key Largo I don't see a low forming.


It's very weak but as you can see something is trying to get going here.

10-14 days watch out off of Africa.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Jupitu

JupiterKen Karma's a &%#^$.Ah ha!.



Be careful that your dogma doesn't get ran over by your karma...
1837. Grothar
1838. icmoore
Some pictures from yesterday's storms in the Bay area by Bay News 9.


Link
most of the comments here in relation to cyclonic activity, hinges on the return to the basin of the MJO. so if there is a weak MJO then activity is greatly reduced,i tend to disagree. there are other factors which increases and decreases the potential for cyclonic development.
Here is closest bouy to ground zero just offshore of Key Largo. Pressures are rising........Winds are gusting but no low is forming.

Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 12:00:00 UTC

Winds: NNE (20°) at 13.0 kt gusting to 14.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.03 in and rising
Air Temperature: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 82.9 F
View Details - View History
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Be careful that your dogma doesn't get ran over by your karma...
Well he called me stupid once and said some other negative things to me.I didn't bother to argue with him so I just put him on ignore.
1842. ARiot
Quoting StormTracker2K:
HPC might want to consider uping these totals across FL as there has been some excessive rains with these thunderstorms coming thru here.



I join just about everyone in the lower and middle South when I welcome the rain!

Thankfully for us in the TN Valley (at least the eastern half) we're getting more rain than predicted.

Heavy "Gulf-like" moisture in the air. Not too many severe storms. Perfect. I hope it gets stuck here!
Boy this lightning pounding over at Cape Canaveral.
West Palm Beach, Palm Beach International Airport (KPBI)
Humidity90%
Wind SpeedS 17 G 26 mph
Can SeaDAS or VIIRS pick up methane plumes, or toxic algae bloom fumes over the ocean?
T he regularity of ULL systems within the MDR and the continued dry and stable upper levels are responsible for what appears to be an inactive july
Quoting Grothar:
I think I see a pinhole eye somewhere in there.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not quite sure why we're all so happy to be rained on today, but to all,

Enjoy!

Gotta run! lol

I am so thankful for the rain if it comes. It's been so hot and sunny that my AC unit on my second floor runs from around 1pm to about 7 nonstop. At least if if rains, my unit will get a break....and so will I on my electric bill.
1850. Grothar
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's very weak but as you can see something is trying to get going here.



It's all Mid and ULL
Quoting Grothar:


I'm loving the rain from our Texas blob!
Quoting Grothar:
Blobs,blobs....and more blobs!!.
Quoting Pirate999:


I'm loving the rain from our Texas blob!
3 day total here of about half an inch, those who are getting rains in Texas are getting them but several locations are getting little due to slow to no movement. I am happy some parts of Texas are getting Lucky though just wished it was me. LOL, have a great day. The cracks in the ground are several inches and the ponds are almost dried up so Yes bring on the rain.
Watchout if this swirl near Houston makes it's way into the Gulf. Very well defined system here over Houston.

1856. ncstorm
1857. icmoore
Fair

81°F

27°C
Humidity77% Wind SpeedSE 7 mph Barometer30.04 in (1017.3 mb) Dewpoint73°F (23°C) Visibility10.00 mi Heat Index86°F (30°C) Last Update on 11 Jul 8:53 am EDT
Madeira Beach, Fl

1858. ncstorm
We had some terrible lightening last night with storms that came through..and the thunder..whew!! Round two today and then round 3 tomorrow and then round 4 after that and then round 5..back to back lows are supposed to move off the NC coast with the front parked for several days..



Quoting ncstorm:
We had some terrible lightening last night with storms that came through..and the thunder..whew!! Round two today and then round 3 tomorrow and then round 4 after that and then round 6..back to back lows are supposed to move off the NC coast with the front parked for several days..






Yeah this area from SE TX up to NC is in for a deluge over the next several days due to a stalled frontal boundry.
1860. Patrap
Quoting StormTracker2K:



Yeah this area from SE TX up to NC is in for a deluge over the next several days due to a stalled frontal boundry.
D.C wants some of dat!.
Quoting Patrap:


Good morning Pat.
Quoting jrweatherman:


Scientists rely on data for a very short period in our globes history. It is hard for people to believe that based on that data that it is actually fact. Just like religion, scientists want to disprove that Jesus was the son of God by using fact when it is very much based on faith. In both cases, people are not going to believe science.



Which data?
Stable isotopes in varves?
Ice core records?
Palynology?
Paleo-environmental indicators?
Fossil records?
How far back do you want to go?

And what's with the religion non sequitur, anyway?
1864. Patrap
G' morning wunderland
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Watchout if this swirl near Houston makes it's way into the Gulf. Very well defined system here over Houston.

Huh? I'm in Houston (heck, that "swirl" is less than 10 miles from my house), and that is anything but "well defined". It is a kinda-sorta-really-not-organized MCS trying to get going. No swirl. No tropical entity forming. Not necessary for watching closely.

If we start watching that closely, we might as well start watching each individual thunderstorm that forms in the MDR.
1866. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
G' morning wunderland
...........good morning
Anyone see a slight spin right at the coastline near Miami?
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
3 day total here of about half an inch, those who are getting rains in Texas are getting them but several locations are getting little due to slow to no movement. I am happy some parts of Texas are getting Lucky though just wished it was me. LOL, have a great day. The cracks in the ground are several inches and the ponds are almost dried up so Yes bring on the rain.


Yes, I do wish it was more wide spread and provide some broader relief. Raining hard south of Houston now. Coming straight down hard with little or no wind. strange.
1869. Patrap
1870. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
..oh man we are in for it today
Quoting jeffs713:
Huh? I'm in Houston (heck, that "swirl" is less than 10 miles from my house), and that is anything but "well defined". It is a kinda-sorta-really-not-organized MCS trying to get going. No swirl. No tropical entity forming. Not necessary for watching closely.

If we start watching that closely, we might as well start watching each individual thunderstorm that forms in the MDR.


Thanks Jeffs. I was the party pooper on the Florida blob but was waiting on someone from your parts to handle the Texas blob.......... :)
1872. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:



Yeah this area from SE TX up to NC is in for a deluge over the next several days due to a stalled frontal boundry.


Yeah I saw on TWC last night that DC storm drains couldnt handle the heavy rains last night and a lot of basements were flooded out..unfortunately, the rain is supposed to last well into Monday for the east coast..
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's very weak but as you can see something is trying to get going here.


"Very weak" meaning no 850mb vort, a ULL a couple hundred miles to the east, and thunderstorm activity being driven by upper-level divergence? (Check Link)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thanks Jeff. I was the party pooper on the Florida blob but was waiting on someone from your parts to handle the Texas blob.......... :)

My pleasure. I do not discriminate. I rain on everyone's parade (pun intended).
Quoting LargoFl:
..oh man we are in for it today


It's already lightning over here and it has gotten black just over the last 10 minutes.
1877. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's already lightning over here and it has gotten black just over the last 10 minutes.
..ok still mostly sunny here with some overcast in area's,just got back from clearwater beach, its real busy now with alot of people there,hope they are watching the skies, going to turn bad later on
Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah I saw on TWC last night that DC storm drains couldnt handle the heavy rains last night and a lot of basements were flooded out..unfortunately, the rain is supposed to last well into Monday for the east coast..
Yes it came down hard for about 20 minutes.Yes we need for our drought.Bur not all at once.Could have more storms today.
1879. LargoFl
.............this time of year we really have to watch these tropical waves coming across
1880. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
Blobs,blobs....and more blobs!!.


People can call it what they want; a baroclinic low, a tutt, a ULL, a front. Speaking scientifically, that is definetly a blob.

1881. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
G' morning wunderland
Good morning Pat.
Quoting Grothar:


People can call it what they want; a baroclinic low, a tutt, a ULL, a front. Speaking scientifically, that is definetly a blob.


What if the baroclinic low associated with the ULL to the east that is being influenced by the front to its north and the TUTT cell to its east doesn't want to be called a blob? What if it wants to be called a mass? Hmmmmm?
1884. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:


People can call it what they want; a baroclinic low, a tutt, a ULL, a front. Speaking scientifically, that is definetly a blob.

..looks like miami is getting hammered
1885. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes it came down hard for about 20 minutes.Yes we need for our drought.Bur not all at once.Could have more storms today.


thats scary that it only took about that short enough time for it flood cars and basements..
1886. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:
wow..what is that in the Atlantic..


The ULL at the center of the TUTT.
1888. Patrap
People can say what they want but this is definitely sustaining convection and infact it appears to be growing in size!



Looks impressive on the visible sat.
1890. Patrap
1891. ncstorm
Quoting jeffs713:

The ULL at the center of the TUTT.


thanks!
Wont leave this up for long, problably has been posted already by my trolly brother:

1893. Grothar
Quoting jeffs713:

What if the baroclinic low associated with the ULL to the east that is being influenced by the front to its north and the TUTT cell to its east doesn't want to be called a blob? What if it wants to be called a mass? Hmmmmm?


I like when you talk technical! LOL
Nothing wrong with calling out the Blobs but it's the science behind the Blobs that is important.
1895. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


People can call it what they want; a baroclinic low, a tutt, a ULL, a front. Speaking scientifically, that is definetly a blob.

It does look like hurricane season wth those blobs on da pics.
Interesting article on climate research from Northern Europe going back to 138BC.  Easy read and most interesting.




Climate in Northern Europe Reconstructed for the Past 2,000 Years: Cooling Trend Calculated Precisely for the First Time  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/12070 9092606.htm

1897. Patrap
Growing in numbers
Growing in speed
Can't fight the future
Can't fight what I see

People they come together
People they fall apart
No one can stop us now
'Cause we are all made of stars

Lessons of lovers
Left in my mind
I sing in the reaches
We'll see what we find



Quoting StormTracker2K:
People can say what they want but this is definitely sustaining convection and infact it appears to be growing in size!



Looks impressive on the visible sat.


Anyone else see some rotation?
Low is forming off SE FL. These rain bands of rain are building all the back toward Nassua,Bahamas.
1900. LargoFl
.....................amazing how there are no serious warnings yet down there
Quoting ncstorm:
wow..what is that in the Atlantic..

I can't see it.
Quoting ncstorm:


thats scary that it only took about that short enough time for it flood cars and basements..
The clouds were a darkish green looking color yesterday.i had to check the weather report to see if we weren't under a tornado watch or something.Lol.The storms exploded when they got near the city.Luckly not that much thunder or lightning.We had some good wind.Measured a wind of 35mph.
Any one know why my quote button would stop working?
1903. LargoFl
1904. Patrap
Refresh your browser, or re-start the system
Quoting StormTracker2K:
People can say what they want but this is definitely sustaining convection and infact it appears to be growing in size!



Looks impressive on the visible sat.

Which would make sense considering its proximity to a ULL (providing lift) and divergent flow aloft (providing ventilation). That doesn't mean it is anything worthy of special note.
1906. LargoFl
...............................stormtracker, all of this will be up by us later on today,whew
Just east of Miami:

Station FWYF1
NDBC
Location: 25.591N 80.097W
Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 13:00:00 UTC

Winds: NE (40°) at 11.1 kt gusting to 13.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.05 in and rising
Air Temperature: 75.2 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F


Just east of Key Largo:

Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 13:00:00 UTC

Winds: NE (40°) at 13.0 kt gusting to 14.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.05 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.4 F
Water Temperature: 82.8 F
View Details - View History

I guess the science loses this morning.

See Yall Later................... :)
Mornin, sport
Derived from the 11July12pmGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneEmilia:
14.3n115.1w - 14.5n116.2w has been re-evalutated&altered
14.2n115.1w - 14.5n116.2w - 14.7n117.0w are now the most recent positions

Its vector had changed from 12.7mph(20.5km/h) WNWest to 9.2mph(14.8km/h) WNWest
MaxSusWinds had had held steady at 90knots(104mph)167km/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 970millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Emilia's path...
OGG is Kahului :: ITO is Hilo :: SAN is SanDiego ::CSL is CaboSanLucas

Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where TropicalStormEmilia became H.Emilia
Westernmost dot on the connected line-segments is HurricaneEmilia's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection thru H.Emilias's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
10July6pmGMT: H.Emilia had been headed toward passing over ParadisePark
11July12amGMT: H.Emilia had been headed toward passing 217miles(349kilometres) north of Kauai
(Closest passage at 25.369n159.021w. Not shown due to map scale)
11July6amGMT: H.Emilia had been headed toward passing over Pe'ahi,Maui
11July12pmGMT: H.Emilia was heading toward passing 1.1miles(1.7kilometres) North of TheBigIsland
in ~11days15hours

Copy&paste ogg, 19.624n154.949w, 25.369n159.021w, 20.943n156.279w, ito, 8.8n156.2w, san, csl, 12.0n108.7w-12.4n109.4w, 12.4n109.4w-12.8n110.5w, 12.8n110.5w-13.2n111.7w, 13.2n111.7w-13.4n112.5w, 13.4n112.5w-13.6n113.3w, 13.6n113.3w-13.8n114.1w, 13.8n114.1w-14.2n115.1w, 14.2n115.1w-14.5n116.2w, 14.5n116.2w-14.7n117.0w, 14.5n116.2w-20.284n155.85w, 20.268n155.85w-20.284n155.85w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
1910. LargoFl
Quoting fireflymom:
Interesting article on climate research from Northern Europe going back to 138BC.  Easy read and most interesting.




Climate in Northern Europe Reconstructed for the Past 2,000 Years: Cooling Trend Calculated Precisely for the First Time  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/12070 9092606.htm

There's an excellent in-depth dissection/discussion of the Esper et al paper over on RealClimate.org. In brief, while the reconstruction is welcomed both for its finer precision at certain timescales and its handling of the so-called divergence problem, the paper's authors may be slightly overstating their conclusions. What's most exciting, however, is that tree ring data corroborate instrumental data; the rapid warming since 1900 is readily apparent in both records.
1912. Patrap
The K storm came together on 05 near this Miami thingee.


Dis is B-A-D Mojo,
Quoting spathy:
"exactly how a changing climate will impact specific elements of weather, such as clouds",
Like clouds that can cool the temps.
They dont even know how that type of feedback will unfold in the future.
Or they ignore it.


No GCM I'm aware of ignores clouds, nor are scientists ignorant of what kinds of feedbacks can result from clouds in the future.

What makes clouds so difficult is that, for the most part, clouds are very small scale phenomena, and even the highest resolution coupled models can only capture the larger events. The other problem is that clouds are a meteorological phenomena and depend greatly on the prevailing conditions, terrain, etc. so any cloud component of such models usually have error bars associated with them.

This is why scientists do thousands of runs with these models using slight variations of parameters to get a good feel about where the climate is going. And depending on where and how often the clouds form, they can have cooling or a warming effect. And even if they have a warming or cooling effect that does not imply that the planet will get warmer or cooler, as clouds are just one part of these models. It is not simply "more clouds == more cooling" like certain internet personalities would like you to believe.

And even if the models say something is going to happen does not mean the scientists automatically assume it will. The models are a result of science, not vice versa. The models are tools that can help provide insight into the climate system. They are not the end-all, be-all of climate science, and no credible climate scientist would ever claim such a thing.

The climate is not simple. In a number of cases, it isn't even intuitive. There is a considerable amount of advanced physics and mathematics that go into climate science; math and science that are used in a number of other fields. A skeptic understands the math and science, and attempts to find weaknesses and holes in the prevailing science using rigor and analysis. Deniers would have you believe that they can rip apart scientific results using grade school math and excel spreadsheets.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Patrap:
The K storm came together on 05 near this Miami thingee.


Dis is B-A-D Mojo,



Some on here don't get it Pat. This systems can form fast in the area especially with steering favoring a Rita or K track.
Deleted
1917. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
The K storm came together on 05 near this Miami thingee.


Dis is B-A-D Mojo,
Moving over Miami W-SW too.
Quoting JupiterKen:


Too bad you are not a scientist. These temperatures are well within their average for this date. Always the alarmist.


Well within range? According to who?

Resolute, Canada was in the 60's and 70's. That is well above normal for this time of year, or any time of year for that matter. Similar conditions existed across the arctic, where temperature anomalies where anywhere from 5 to 10+ degrees above normal. Further, SST anomalies are also indicate much above normal temperatures for a lot of the arctic.

And if you don't want to believe temperature and sensor measurements, then how about some visual imagery? MODIS imagery of the arctic shows the rapid melting, and clearly shows the fractured and slush like nature of the western half of the ice (which will soon be melting away completely.

Here's a site that shows you every metric you'd care to look at in regards to the arctic: Link .

It's quite likely we will see a new minimum extent this year, and pretty much certain that we will hit a new low for volume (the more important number). But you can continue pretending that nothing is happening.
Deleted
1920. VINNY04
Quoting Autistic2:
Any one know why my quote button would stop working?
it happend to me yesterday. it seems to happen alot you just have to wait for the next comment page to pop up.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's an excellent in-depth dissection/discussion of the Esper et al paper over on RealClimate.org. In brief, while the reconstruction is welcomed both for its finer precision at certain timescales and its handling of the so-called divergence problem, the paper's authors may be slightly overstating their conclusions. What's most exciting, however, is that tree ring data corroborate instrumental data; the rapid warming since 1900 is readily apparent in both records.


This has been starting to make the rounds quickly already, I'm glad RealClimate addressed it. I've seen news articles already misunderstanding the conclusions or seeing what they want to see. It doesn't prove anything, it doesn't refute anything. As with any single study, it suggests; for this study it suggests a steeper natural warming trend since the Roman Warm Period than some other studies. Contrary to some poorer analysis, it actually suggests that the modern warming period halted and reversed a more substantial natural cooling, thus providing even more evidence for significance of our enhanced greenhouse effect.