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Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103°; relief coming by Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

It was another day of triple-digit heat across the Midwest Thursday, as the nation continued to bake in the intense heat of the record-breaking summer of 2012. Chicago hit 103° on Thursday, just 2° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. The Windy City might have exceeded their all-time heat record, but for the fortuitous formation of a small but intense thunderstorm that hit the airport at 2:45 pm. The storm brought a wind gust of 52 mph to the airport and cooled the temperature by 20°. A wind gust of 92 mph was recorded 4 miles offshore over Lake Michigan. Thursday was the hottest day in Chicago since a 104° reading on July 13, 1995. Milwaukee, WI also hit 103° Thursday, which tied for the 3rd hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 104° was their hottest day since 1988, and also tied for the 3rd warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936. St. Louis hit 105°, the eighth consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 3rd longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 107 - 108° Friday and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.


Figure 1. The severe weather map for Friday, July 6, 2012, showed that advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) were posted for portions of 25 states.

The forecast: record heat Friday and Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Friday and Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, but a cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By early next week, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters
July 4th Storm 2
July 4th Storm 2
double rainbow
double rainbow
Rio Rico, AZ

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. dolig

appears the GOM is getting warm...

Link
Uploaded by bnvn1 on Sep 6, 2010

RAW MASTER

08/30/2005 Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, LA Aftermath Video - Katrina Raw Master 32. To license this footage, visit http://www.stormchasingvideo.com .

08/30/2005 Footage shot at Interstate 10 and Causeway Overpass of Coast Guard and National Guard helicopters landing and dropping off people who were rescued from their roof tops in New Orleans.

Footage shows the massive rescue effort that was happening as survivors were waiting for additional busses to transport them to shelters outside of the devastated area. Footage ends with an interview of a man that asked for a ride from the photographer to try and get to his mothers home to take shelter in the city of Kenner, LA.

The interview explains what happened to him which is pretty much the same story for most of the survivors of Hurricane Katrina in the New Orleans, La. area. Catalog ends with non flooding storm damage along Airline Highway.


It's been in the making for days: The Sun has unleashed an X class flare.

Quoting LargoFl:
well thats what the sign at a bank there said..humidity is high dunno if it really is 99..although..storms were around

Which is why bank thermometers are not official observing stations.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no its not. It just means that 98F air has 99% of the moisture it can hold.
I dont know exactly where it happens, maybe just after a tstorm in 110 weather next to the ocean.

It is about as close to impossible as you can get... the highest recorded dewpoint in the world is usually published as in the mid 90s Fahrenheit.
Quoting Patrap:


20' feet as I'm on the Audubon Ridge.

On the Rim at River Bend.



Lol your on the levee
Chicago O'Hare officially hit 103F today, and Chicago Midway airport hit 105F. West suburban Itasca is said to have reached 108F!

An interesting side note: Official records state that Chicago's all -time high is 105F in July 1934. However, the official thermometer then was at the University of Chicago Campus, located right on the lakeshore. On that same day Midway airport (around 10 miles inland) reached 109F. Also, in 1936, Midway airport recorded 8 straight days above 100F. Just to put things in a bit of perspective.
Does anyone remember Gustav? that storm scared the heck out of me, when I saw water splashing over the Industrail Canal on TV, for about an hour, I was freaking out, I was thinking Katrina II.
Is this the most impressive and powerful wave that we've seen move off of Africa so far, or is it my imagination?

Someone with better links, please post a superior animation of this thing.

It looks like a real buzz saw, headed for some timber.




97E up to 60%.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
dang I sure hope these storms wash away the 100 degree heat we've been having...just watched these bad boys pop, not often you see heavy rain in the sunshine around here

Looks like whatever is left of that wave is sort of merging with the afternoon pops over Cuba.

Last night really did a number on that thing, and it'd be hard pressed for whatever's remains to rebuild at this point.

I could hardly find any offshore storms at all on Cuban radar compared to 24 to 36 hours ago when it was near Puerto Rico.


Cuban Radar

Yeah, there's a ling of storms out over the water, but that's looking pretty weak by comparison...
515. yoboi
Quoting Methurricanes:
Does anyone remember Gustav? that storm scared the heck out of me, when I saw water splashing over the Industrail Canal on TV, for about an hour, I was freaking out, I was thinking Katrina II.


yep had to deal with that one also first time i have seen a total coastal evacuation order given in la,from the texas state line to the mississippi line, then had ike strike right after that, cameron had worse flooding for ike than rita by 2 feet. storm surge was 22 feet for ike 20 for rita and 19 for audrey
Quoting RTSplayer:


Graph may be a little over doing it for about the 4 iciest months, since in order to get that bad, you'd probably first need to melt all or most of the Greenland ice.

Still, it's probably very reliable for about the 4 or 5 warmest/least icy Northern Hemisphere months.

That graph is of Arctic sea ice. If by "Greenland ice" you are referring to "ice on Greenland", then that would not be something shown on a graph of sea ice. I'm not exactly sure what you are trying to get at in your critique of why you are skeptical of the graph, but the rate of ice loss, both sea ice and greenland ice, has been shown to be accelerating through more than one method.
Quoting RTSplayer:
The more ice you melt, the more convection can carry away the heat from the ocean and mix it with the atmosphere, so it actually gets harder to keep melting the ice.

Generally the feedback for the Arctic sea ice is considered to be positive, as the ice melts, albedo increases dramatically (this has already been observed) which increases the rate of melt. The fact that the trend line best fit is exponential is consistent with that understanding of the cryosphere.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Is this the most impressive and powerful wave that we've seen move off of Africa so far, or is it my imagination?

Someone with better links, please post a superior animation of this thing.

It looks like a real buzz saw, headed for some timber.









Eastern and central MDR is average SST at best, as a general rule.



I wouldn't get too excited until it passes 45 west. It's not like there's some hot anomaly on the east side of the MDR or anything like that. Plus there's more dry air over there right now than a few weeks ago even.
Quoting Methurricanes:
Does anyone remember Gustav? that storm scared the heck out of me, when I saw water splashing over the Industrail Canal on TV, for about an hour, I was freaking out, I was thinking Katrina II.


Uploaded by djnanashi on Aug 31, 2008

This was the first wave of Gustav hitting the French Quarter in New Orleans. At the end you can see the speed the storm clouds are coming in and hear the wind picking up

Note everyone is evacuated.

These are Tourist,,and note her tone at the end. It was a creepy Eyewall approach.

Like a Bad Sci-Fi Movie..in 3D.




Quoting ScottLincoln:


That graph is of Arctic sea ice. If by "Greenland ice" you are referring to "ice on Greenland", then that would not be something shown on a graph of sea ice. I'm not exactly sure what you are trying to get at in your critique of why you are skeptical of the graph, but the rate of ice loss, both sea ice and greenland ice, has been shown to be accelerating through more than one method.



I'm not skeptical of the ice loss.

What I'm saying is the HUGE amount of ice on land is going to start acting as a temporary buffer to further change in ice loss and SST in the arctic, simply because it's there and there's so much of it.

Yes, it's all melting, and it's all melting exponentially, I know this.

Over all, about the same amount of ice will melt each year anyway, if you plotted the TOTAL of the two ice amounts: land and sea; It's just a matter of variation between the two and where that loss comes from.

If I had a pond with ice in it, and I have a wall with ice 3 feet deep stacked on top of it, and I blow hot air over the wall, which is going to melt first? The pond, or the wall?

I'd say the wall, unless some freaky effects intervene.


It's VERY hard to warm that pole in winter time. It's -40C to -60C, so even 5C or 10C worth of polar warming won't hurt the "winter time" ice pack automatically, but only over a very long time...


Nevertheless, first september meltdown should be 5 to 10 years.
My View of Gustavs same approach.

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Is this the most impressive and powerful wave that we've seen move off of Africa so far, or is it my imagination?

Someone with better links, please post a superior animation of this thing.

It looks like a real buzz saw, headed for some timber.






Its mid-level signature really isn't that impressive, with very little wind shift at 650mb within the African Easterly Jet. Short-term convective flare-up could largely be a result of daytime heating.

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.89 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 89.2°F
Dewpoint: 62.1°F
Humidity: 40 %
Wind: N 11 mph
Humidex: 98


FINALLY BELOW 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
Quoting RTSplayer:

Over all, about the same amount of ice will melt each year anyway, if you plotted the TOTAL of the two ice amounts: land and sea; It's just a matter of variation between the two and where that loss comes from.


That assumes that ocean/air temps in the Arctic and subsequent ice melt is at equilibrium with the rate of global climate warming, and that said increase in heat was linear. Neither of these can adequately describe the state the climate system right now.

Right now, Arctic sea ice melt is not being significantly mitigated by land ice contributions. It has been shown that the primary driver of the rate of melt is the temperature of the Arctic and weather patterns. Until land ice can begin melting at a rate that it provides a volume of ice comparable to sea ice losses through already-observed mechanisms, this will not change.
looks like relief is on the way


MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT:

A major solar flare reaching X1.1 peaked at 23:08 UTC Friday evening.

The flare was centered around Sunspot 1515.


Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.


LASCO



EVE X-RAY



CaptainMarks debut post got me to do a search on New Orleans and datums. Some interesting reading on New Orleans, the River and such out there.

Historical Background on the New Orleans Levee System

The Hurricane of Sept. 29th, 1915, and Subsequent Heavy Rainfalls.

Vertical Settlement They ain't talking about high rises.

The datum issue can be tricky since the ground is continually settling particularly with water being pumped from aquifers and oil/gas production. I saw a broadcast while the Allison flood waters were still subsiding where they had an engineer from Rice University on along with Neil Frank. The Rice professor was basically calling Frank a liar about the amount of rain that had fallen. He insisted that it had been greater than reported. Turns out he was involved in the design of a hospital where the emergency generators had flooded--at least that's my recollection. What I also remember after things had settled down some is that they realized the benchmark they used in designing the hospital had subsided by about three feet.

Parts of Houston have subsided dramatically because of ground water pumping. I know I've commented on this blog about this before, but I think the issue is worth bringing up again. It is not just a matter of using old datums. Newer ones can be inaccurate, too.

Edit: They have a Houston-Galveston subsidence district established to deal with the issue.
Some dramatic pictures of the sinking of the Brownwood subdivision of Baytown are here. It's a nature preserve today, what's still above sea level.
we got a new hurricane


EP, 04, 2012070700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1164W, 65, 988, HU
Quoting Levi32:


Its mid-level signature really isn't that impressive, with very little wind shift at 650mb within the African Easterly Jet. Short-term convective flare-up could largely be a result of daytime heating.



Where do you think the wave in the carribbean go to bring rain

Im leaning towards florida, im thinking that the 1016 millibar line is going to retreat east a bit as the next trough digs in. The TUTT has killed any chance of development on this thing but a ligitement gulf coast rain threat I would think.
Hurricane Daniel:

Quoting Tazmanian:
we got a new hurricane


EP, 04, 2012070700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1164W, 65, 988, HU


Hey!! i thought so!
Wrong analogy, RTSplayer. Talk about a pro-football stadium filled with ice next to a pond covered in an inch of ice. Which is gonna melt first?
Quoting Patrap:

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT:

A major solar flare reaching X1.1 peaked at 23:08 UTC Friday evening.

The flare was centered around Sunspot 1515.


Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.


LASCO



EVE X-RAY





Technical problems expected?
Quoting weatherh98:


Technical problems expected?

Geomagnetic storm now in progress...



This is a really great website for these kind of things.
Quoting aspectre:
Wrong analogy. Talk about a pro-football stadium filled with ice next to a pond covered in an inch of ice. Which is gonna melt first?


Depends on a lot of variables. Like is the field heated? Is either area in the shade? What's the temperature of both areas? Is one being refrigerated? Lotta variables I see here...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Geomagnetic storm now in progress...



This is a really great website for these kind of things.


Thats cool... Are we expecting technical problems?
Quoting weatherh98:


Thats cool... Are we expecting technical problems?

Hard to say... If the blast from this X flare is squarely directed at Earth it would be possible.
I thought this was interesting, forecaster discussion from the Cincy, OH region:

quote:

Saturday is shaping up to be a very interesting day to say the
least. Upper level high will settle south across the Ohio Valley.
Using a blend of the NAM and European model (ecmwf)...forecast 850 mb temperatures
are expected to peak between 25 c and 26 c. These values are very
anomalously high considering past climate data. In fact...they
are 3 to 4 Standard deviations from climatology...which is very rare
indeed. Given that many locations to our west have been recording
high temperatures in the 103 to 107 range with these type of
values (srn Wisconsin was around 106 on thursday) leads ME to
believe that Saturday is shaping up to be one of the hottest days
in our area for quite some time. Other factors that are favorable
will be an increasing west wind between 10 and 15 miles per hour as a cold
front approaches slowly from the north...which may add a
compressional heating factor. Also...skies should be mostly
sunny...and with the lack of convection...the full heating process
should be undisturbed. As a result...will be forecasting highs
from 102 to 106 with all three climate sites flirting with 105
degrees. With deep mixing expected...dewpoints should drop into
the middle 60s by late in the day. These values combined with the
record breaking heat will result in heat index values of 108 to
113.

3-4 standard deviations! Any more knowledgable folks have thoughts?
Very strong convection looks to be building around what looks to be a forming eye...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Hard to say... If the blast from this X flare is squarely directed at Earth it would be possible.


Thank you:) my knowledge of solar flares is more than most people but less than most of you.
Quoting Tazmanian:
we got a new hurricane


EP, 04, 2012070700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1164W, 65, 988, HU
Finally. I was thinking it might have time to get to cat 2 before the inevitable weakening set in, but I dunno...
The standard deviation of a random variable, statistical population, data set, or probability distribution is the square root of its variance.

It is algebraically simpler though practically less robust than the average absolute deviation.

A useful property of standard deviation is that, unlike variance, it is expressed in the same units as the data.


hide ya kids hide ya wife.. jk its just hurricane daniel
Quoting BahaHurican:
Finally. I was thinking it might have time to get to cat 2 before the inevitable weakening set in, but I dunno...


Well considering this...

and this....


her day is numbered..
Evening, everyone! It rained!!! Was walking around the PX with my daughter when a huge thunder crashed overhead, instantly the electric went off. A few seconds later the electric came back on. It did this about five or six times. Then the rain hit, thunder on the roof. Everyone was smiling and we could tell who didn't live on Post as they were saying exactly what I had just said to my daughter - "I hope it's raining at home!"
Quoting Patrap:
The standard deviation of a random variable, statistical population, data set, or probability distribution is the square root of its variance.

It is algebraically simpler though practically less robust than the average absolute deviation.

A useful property of standard deviation is that, unlike variance, it is expressed in the same units as the data.


I thought this blog was in English. How'd you mange to type in that language?
Caution: You're about to enter the no shear zone.




Lol.

Wonder if this remnants is really worth watching?
Quoting timtlu:


I thought this blog was in English. How'd you mange to type in that language?



hablamos matematicas in espanol.

Fresca?
555. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
The standard deviation of a random variable, statistical population, data set, or probability distribution is the square root of its variance.

It is algebraically simpler though practically less robust than the average absolute deviation.

A useful property of standard deviation is that, unlike variance, it is expressed in the same units as the data.
Quoting Patrap:
The standard deviation of a random variable, statistical population, data set, or probability distribution is the square root of its variance.

It is algebraically simpler though practically less robust than the average absolute deviation.

A useful property of standard deviation is that, unlike variance, it is expressed in the same units as the data.


or drink some beer and throw some dice???
GFDL on 97E



Edit: Picture won't show up, but it shows a Cat 2 storm.
Quoting timtlu:


I thought this blog was in English. How'd you mange to type in that language?


That WAS English, though I must admit, I was equally perplexed by the outburst of mathematical elucidation.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Caution: You're about to enter the no shear zone.




Lol.

Wonder if this remnants is really worth watching?


Im going to make a blog on sunday including that, its featured in my blog from today
Quoting yoboi:


or drink some beer and throw some dice???


after that, yall may need something stronger
Quoting timtlu:


I thought this blog was in English. How'd you mange to type in that language?


And, given a normal distribution, the number of standard deviations away a number is from a sample mean can be calculated using a z-score.
because i'm going to the beaches of south carolina, i predict that the blob currently off hatteras will form into a tropical storm and be pushed southeast far enough to form into a nice hurricane, and wham right at the georgia/south carolina coast as a cat2. 

the day after i leave...
Blob going to get much further west than it is now? Cuba is a launching pad for energy and storm feed with the island and surrounding waters being so hot for this time of year. Been watching Cuba flare with thunderstorm activity all through the week. Mostly the storms remained over the majority of Cuba and not the surrounding waters and dissipated at night.
Quoting plutorising:
because i'm going to the beaches of south carolina, i predict that the blob currently off hatteras will form into a tropical storm and be pushed southeast far enough to form into a nice hurricane, and wham right at the georgia/south carolina coast as a cat2. 

the day after i leave...


This is 2012. I guess anything can happen.



Actually has convection over water showing up on Dvorak now. Not too shabby, but still far from what it was even yesterday.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That assumes that ocean/air temps in the Arctic and subsequent ice melt is at equilibrium with the rate of global climate warming, and that said increase in heat was linear. Neither of these can adequately describe the state the climate system right now.

Right now, Arctic sea ice melt is not being significantly mitigated by land ice contributions. It has been shown that the primary driver of the rate of melt is the temperature of the Arctic and weather patterns. Until land ice can begin melting at a rate that it provides a volume of ice comparable to sea ice losses through already-observed mechanisms, this will not change.

Moan! :-
"Arctic sea ice melt is not being significantly mitigated by land ice contributions. It has been shown that the primary driver of the rate of melt is the temperature of the Arctic and weather patterns."
Man you got to get reality into perspective, not that I in any way disagree with your write up But:-
If the ice melts, we have got big problems with methane, and storms over the Arctic. Very few people , apart from some on here seem to grasp the implications of this.
The Atlantic and the Northern Pacific are separated by ICE! The ice can be removed by heat and in fact will be!
Once the ice is gone then storms that churn up water will prevail in the Arctic. So something that we as humans have never experienced. This is going to be one hell of a show!
Added to the above, we have the mundane increase in methane and the progressive melting of the tundra and the permafrost. All a bit of a bore if you are waiting for a Cat 5? in the Caribbean!
All a bit of a worry if you look a few years ahead of now?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Finally. I was thinking it might have time to get to cat 2 before the inevitable weakening set in, but I dunno...


i say it will make it too cat 5
Quoting Patrap:
..Lord I miss Daniel





God It looks like Daniel,must be the clouds in my eyes
567. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:


i say it will make it too cat 5
Quoting Tazmanian:


i say it will make it too cat 5



why not just say it will make it to cat 7 taz
Quoting weatherh98:


Well considering this...

and this....


her day is numbered..

pay attention to the ssts in the east pacific. they have cooled. el nino stalling?
Quoting PlazaRed:

Moan! :-
"Arctic sea ice melt is not being significantly mitigated by land ice contributions. It has been shown that the primary driver of the rate of melt is the temperature of the Arctic and weather patterns."
Man you got to get reality into perspective, not that I in any way disagree with your write up But:-
If the ice melts, we have got big problems with methane, and storms over the Arctic. Very few people , apart from some on here seem to grasp the implications of this.
The Atlantic and the Northern Pacific are separated by ICE! The ice can be removed by heat and in fact will be!
Once the ice is gone then storms that churn up water will prevail in the Arctic. So something that we as humans have never experienced. This is going to be one hell of a show!
Added to the above, we have the mundane increase in methane and the progressive melting of the tundra and the permafrost. All a bit of a bore if you are waiting for a Cat 5? in the Caribbean!
All a bit of a worry if you look a few years ahead of now?



Currently, the oceans near the poles are sequestering an amount of heat representing a net increase of 0.3C per decade for the average temperature from surface to bottom!

That's right, not just the SST, that's the increase in the Surface-to-bottom average.

The implications of this over the multi-decadal range and into the century range is that at some point, the deep oceans are going to run out of places to store the excess heat, and it will presumably be dumped directly into the ice and atmosphere.
570. yoboi
hey DOC M did ya'll ever switch servers to the twc? i been having probs past few days is there an twc IT dept i can e-mail???
Quoting weatherh98:


hide ya kids hide ya wife.. jk its just hurricane daniel


no its hide yo kids, hide yo wife, daniel be something-ing everybody up in here..

weather chat.
Quoting RTSplayer:



Currently, the oceans near the poles are sequestering an amount of heat representing a net increase of 0.3C per decade for the average temperature from surface to bottom!

That's right, not just the SST, that's the increase in the Surface-to-bottom average.

The implications of this over the multi-decadal range and into the century range is that at some point, the deep oceans are going to run out of places to store the excess heat, and it will presumably be dumped directly into the ice and atmosphere.

There's nowhere else for it to go.
It cant go down into the seabed; so it must migrate up through the ice into the atmosphere. This will lead to increased heat over the North pole and added surface to cloud level activity.
As I keep moaning about this, it will lead to surface storms in the Arctic and churn up the dormant waters which have been moribund for millennium!
All I can add to this is that I hope I can exist long enough to see what happens. Its going to be interesting to say the least!
573. yoboi
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Evening, everyone! It rained!!! Was walking around the PX with my daughter when a huge thunder crashed overhead, instantly the electric went off. A few seconds later the electric came back on. It did this about five or six times. Then the rain hit, thunder on the roof. Everyone was smiling and we could tell who didn't live on Post as they were saying exactly what I had just said to my daughter - "I hope it's raining at home!"


where ya get rain at ??

i didn't get a drop
574. yoboi
Quoting weatherh98:


after that, yall may need something stronger



if it's to complex break out the everclear, with a drop of fresca
576. yoboi
how could anything survive in the GOM right now, it would be tore apart
Daniel may make strong Category 1 status but the real show will be Emilia (97E).
I just came back and got the boat cleaned. The water temp in the intercostal was 87 degrees. That is the hottest I have ever seen it here in 40 years. Really 20 since I had a fish finder! My new one shows isotherms and there were none. The ICW was 87 degrees wither it was 15 feet or 50 feet.


We are pretty teeny in the realm of things.............Imagine a big solar flare off one of these other puppies!!
581. yoboi
Quoting Autistic2:
I just came back and got the boat cleaned. The water temp in the intercostal was 87 degrees. That is the hottest I have ever seen it here in 40 years. Really 20 since I had a fish finder! My new one shows isotherms and there were none. The ICW was 87 degrees wither it was 15 feet or 50 feet.


i don't think the intercoastal is deeper than 75 feet it's like taking water temps out a swimming pool if ya had alot of fresh water rain it would drop quick if not much rain it would read hot; plus ya would have to compare tug traffic over the yrs because they churn up water in the intercoastal lot of varables
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no its hide yo kids, hide yo wife, daniel be something-ing everybody up in here..

weather chat.


You leave and i join in...
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


We are pretty teeny in the realm of things.............Imagine a big solar flare off one of these other puppies!!


The Scale of the Universe 2
Quoting weatherh98:


You leave and i join in...


i join in again and you dont answer
Update on the insane flood in India..

A central team is arriving in Assam to assess the damage from the recent floods that have killed at least 100 people besides rendering around 20 lakh (2 million) others homeless. "The central team will come to the state for detailed assessment after the state submits a full-fledged memorandum to the central government on the total damage caused by floods in Assam," a senior revenue department official told IANS. The floods, since June 22, have affected all districts of the state and submerged huge tracts of land, including crop land. However, relief camps have been able to shelter only three lakh (300,000) people; the rest of them have been forced to live on the highways with no food, no toilets and no shelter. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress party president Sonia Gandhi made an aerial survey of flood affected areas Monday, and also announced an immediate relief package of Rs.500 crore. The Prime Minister had assured more financial help after a complete assessment to be conducted by a central team. more here

Altogether 538 animals, including 13 rhinos, of the Kaziranga National Park, have been killed in the devastating Assam floods and the death toll is mounting with the KNP authorities of this World Heritage Site recovering more floating carcasses everyday. The floods have also damaged roads and other infrastructure in the park, which is famous for the one-horned rhino. Even amidst the floods, two rhinos were killed by poachers. The floods have claimed 100 human lives, while 16 others died due to landslip in the State. Of these, 56 are children. Of the 31 lives lost in Barpeta district, 21 were children. KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora told The Hindu that till Thursday afternoon carcasses of 463 hog deer, 13 rhinos, 16 Sambar, 10 swamp deer, 28 wild boars, 5 porcupines, one wild buffalo and two hog badgers had been recovered. more here
One more thing about standard deviations – in real systems, describing variability gets complicated in a hurry.

Say you conduct a 20 tests to describe how fast a car will go on a flat road at a given engine rpm. You conclude that at 1800 plus or minus 50 rpm, the car’s speed was, for example, 60 mph plus or minus 3 mph.

In this example, you might retest the car and observe, that going up hill, the car won’t go over 50 mph (over 3 standard deviations from the 1st test). Also, with the car going downhill, the average speed of the car might be 70 plus or minus 3 mph (mostly outside 3 SDs). At that point, you have to conclude that the car’s speed depends on engine rpm and road grade. Variability in car speed depends on both engine rpm and road grade.

But, other variables might affect the speed of the car (e.g. temperature, gravel vs. concrete, age of car, etc. etc.). So, before you can say that the car’s performance is, or is not, within 3 standard deviations, you need to better understand what statistically affects the car’s speed.

Bottom line, standard deviation of systems with multiple dependent and independent variables gets complicated in a hurry.
Good evening everyone!
588. yoboi
Quoting snow2fire:
One more thing about standard deviations – in real systems, describing variability gets complicated in a hurry.

Say you conduct a 20 tests to describe how fast a car will go on a flat road at a given engine rpm. You conclude that at 1800 plus or minus 50 rpm, the car’s speed was, for example, 60 mph plus or minus 3 mph.

In this example, you might retest the car and observe, that going up hill, the car won’t go over 50 mph (over 3 standard deviations from the 1st test). Also, with the car going downhill, the average speed of the car might be 70 plus or minus 3 mph (mostly outside 3 SDs). At that point, you have to conclude that the car’s speed depends on engine rpm and road grade. Variability in car speed depends on both engine rpm and road grade.

But, other variables might affect the speed of the car (e.g. temperature, gravel vs. concrete, age of car, etc. etc.). So, before you can say that the car’s performance is, or is not, within 3 standard deviations, you need to better understand what statistically affects the car’s speed.

Bottom line, standard deviation of systems with multiple dependent and independent variables gets complicated in a hurry.


whats the wind speed and direction??? temp of road how hot or tires at start of each run? any down drafts??
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone!


good evening, care to join us in weather chat, the blog is slow
Quoting yoboi:



if it's to complex break out the everclear, with a drop of fresca

sounds like a plan
Quoting PlazaRed:

Man you got to get reality into perspective, not that I in any way disagree with your write up But:-
If the ice melts, we have got big problems with methane, and storms over the Arctic. Very few people , apart from some on here seem to grasp the implications of this.

I have a masters in Environmental Science and continue to keep up with climate science issues fairly regularly... although not as much of an expert as an PhD-ed, actively-publishing climate scientist, you don't have to remind me of the reality or implications of Arctic sea ice loss. :)
592. yoboi
Quoting Skyepony:
Update on the insane flood in India..

A central team is arriving in Assam to assess the damage from the recent floods that have killed at least 100 people besides rendering around 20 lakh (2 million) others homeless. "The central team will come to the state for detailed assessment after the state submits a full-fledged memorandum to the central government on the total damage caused by floods in Assam," a senior revenue department official told IANS. The floods, since June 22, have affected all districts of the state and submerged huge tracts of land, including crop land. However, relief camps have been able to shelter only three lakh (300,000) people; the rest of them have been forced to live on the highways with no food, no toilets and no shelter. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress party president Sonia Gandhi made an aerial survey of flood affected areas Monday, and also announced an immediate relief package of Rs.500 crore. The Prime Minister had assured more financial help after a complete assessment to be conducted by a central team. more here

Altogether 538 animals, including 13 rhinos, of the Kaziranga National Park, have been killed in the devastating Assam floods and the death toll is mounting with the KNP authorities of this World Heritage Site recovering more floating carcasses everyday. The floods have also damaged roads and other infrastructure in the park, which is famous for the one-horned rhino. Even amidst the floods, two rhinos were killed by poachers. The floods have claimed 100 human lives, while 16 others died due to landslip in the State. Of these, 56 are children. Of the 31 lives lost in Barpeta district, 21 were children. KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora told The Hindu that till Thursday afternoon carcasses of 463 hog deer, 13 rhinos, 16 Sambar, 10 swamp deer, 28 wild boars, 5 porcupines, one wild buffalo and two hog badgers had been recovered. more here



india is almost like ville platte hard to get people to listen....
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I have a masters in Environmental Science and continue to keep up with climate science issues fairly regularly... although not as much of an expert as an PhD-ed, actively-publishing climate scientist, you don't have to remind me of the reality or implications of Arctic sea ice loss. :)


are you involved in any research anymore?
if so what?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Daniel may make strong Category 1 status but the real show will be Emilia (97E).


I wont be surprised if Emilia is a major cane down the road.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


The Scale of the Universe 2


Yup, Ive seen that a while back......makes ya think....lol
596. beell
Quoting Patrap:


Uploaded by djnanashi on Aug 31, 2008

This was the first wave of Gustav hitting the French Quarter in New Orleans. At the end you can see the speed the storm clouds are coming in and hear the wind picking up

Note everyone is evacuated.

These are Tourist,,and note her tone at the end. It was a creepy Eyewall approach.

Like a Bad Sci-Fi Movie..in 3D.






Amazing how calm and rain-free it is for a hurricane eyewall approach. Unbelieveable!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


good evening, care to join us in weather chat, the blog is slow

I'm getting this when i try to enter
"Error to load client configuration file"
Quoting yoboi:



why not just say it will make it to cat 7 taz




now now you no the rulse on that
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


We are pretty teeny in the realm of things.............Imagine a big solar flare off one of these other puppies!!


The Sun is theoretically capable of some insane phenomena under the right conditions, but I doubt what I have in mind has happened in a very long time.

The Sun is believed to have several thousand years worth of it's radiation built up inside of it bouncing around, and that it takes several thousand years on average for the light we "see" to have gotten to the surface and escaped as light.

This begs the question, what if a rogue planet, about the size of the Earth hit the Sun hard enough to penetrate relatively deep into it, so that this insane amount of radiation escaped over a matter of a few seconds to a few minutes?

If it was pointed towards the Earth, it would be truly Biblical.

If you released an entire extra day's worth of energy instantaneously, I suspect it would probably thermolize, vaporize, or vitrify everything on one side of the Earth, as the solar constant would be some unimaginably high number, like 118 megawatts per meter squared...for like one second.

Now that's if just one day's worth of energy was released symetrically over one second.

I'm positive that would incinerate everything on at least half of the planet.

Compared to what the Sun is theoretically capable of, even that would be a mere blip.


Really, even one second's worth of that would probably kill everything on the planet unless it's in the deepest caves in the ocean...
Quoting RTSplayer:
The implications of this over the multi-decadal range and into the century range is that at some point, the deep oceans are going to run out of places to store the excess heat, and it will presumably be dumped directly into the ice and atmosphere.

I'd probably expect it to be somewhat reversed from that... I believe that the oceans are currently acting as a heat sink, thus net heat energy transfer to the oceans from the land/atmosphere. As the oceans warm, it will not necessarily mean that heat will travel from the oceans to the atmosphere, but instead that the heat sink will be reduced or virtually "used up" such that land/atmosphere/ice warming must accelerate to reach balance.
602. yoboi
Quoting beell:


Amazing how calm and rain-free it is for a hurricane approach. Unbelieveable!


hurricanes are like horses they each have there own personality.....
Quoting yoboi:


i don't think the intercoastal is deeper than 75 feet it's like taking water temps out a swimming pool if ya had alot of fresh water rain it would drop quick if not much rain it would read hot; plus ya would have to compare tug traffic over the yrs because they churn up water in the intercoastal lot of varables


Most of the ICW is between 25 and 40 feet here. There is ONE intersection that is 70 feet for a couple of hundred yards. My hummingbird said it was 86 all the way down. I went there just to see. I know the ICW is not like an ocean but it is alot of water and at 86-87 it felt very good to swim in! The gulf stream is 40 miles offshore here. I dont think the icw water makes it out more than a mile or two.
604. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




now now you no the rulse on that



lol i know taz had to poke a little fun in things...
Sea Ice volume..free falling...

Derived from the 7July12amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneDaniel:

Its vector* had changed from 11.2mph(18km/h) West to 10.1mph(16.3km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had increased from 60knots(69mph)111km/h to 65knots(75mph)120km/h
And minimum pressure decreased from 993millibars to 988millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego :: CSL is CaboSanLucas

Easternmost half-dot on the kinked line is where TropicalDepression 4E became TS.Daniel
Westernmost dot on the kinked line is Daniel's final position as a TropicalStorm
Easternmost dot on the longest line is where TS.Daniel became H.Daniel & its most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii
6July6amGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 268miles(431kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Southern half of the end-blob on the longest line)
6July12pmGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 551miles(887kilometres) South of Hawaii*
(SSEastern half of the unconnected blob)
6July6pmGMT: TS.Daniel was headed toward passing 536miles(863kilometres) South of Hawaii
(NNWestern half of the unconnected blob)
7July12amGMT: H.Daniel was headed toward passing 247miles(397kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Northern half of the end-blob on the longest line) in ~10days14hours from now

Copy&paste hi25, 15.0271n155.346w, 11.007n154.323w, 11.212n154.394w, san, 9n157w, csl, 13.8n109.0w- 14.0n110.0w- 14.1n111.2w- 14.3n112.6w- 14.4n113.5w- 14.4n114.5w- 14.4n115.5w, 14.4n115.5w-14.5n116.4w, 14.4n115.5w-15.333n155.418w, 18.911n155.681w-15.333n155.418w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
607. yoboi
Quoting Autistic2:


Most of the ICW is between 25 and 40 feet here. There is ONE intersection that is 70 feet for a couple of hundred yards. My hummingbird said it was 86 all the way down. I went there just to see. I know the ICW is not like an ocean but it is alot of water and at 86-87 it felt very good to swim in! The gulf stream is 40 miles offshore here. I dont think the icw water makes it out more than a mile or two.


where it was 86-87 is there a crossing for deep water draft ships is it close to some locks??
Quoting Skyepony:
Update on the insane flood in India..

A central team is arriving in Assam to assess the damage from the recent floods that have killed at least 100 people besides rendering around 20 lakh (2 million) others homeless. "The central team will come to the state for detailed assessment after the state submits a full-fledged memorandum to the central government on the total damage caused by floods in Assam," a senior revenue department official told IANS. The floods, since June 22, have affected all districts of the state and submerged huge tracts of land, including crop land. However, relief camps have been able to shelter only three lakh (300,000) people; the rest of them have been forced to live on the highways with no food, no toilets and no shelter. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress party president Sonia Gandhi made an aerial survey of flood affected areas Monday, and also announced an immediate relief package of Rs.500 crore. The Prime Minister had assured more financial help after a complete assessment to be conducted by a central team. more here

Altogether 538 animals, including 13 rhinos, of the Kaziranga National Park, have been killed in the devastating Assam floods and the death toll is mounting with the KNP authorities of this World Heritage Site recovering more floating carcasses everyday. The floods have also damaged roads and other infrastructure in the park, which is famous for the one-horned rhino. Even amidst the floods, two rhinos were killed by poachers. The floods have claimed 100 human lives, while 16 others died due to landslip in the State. Of these, 56 are children. Of the 31 lives lost in Barpeta district, 21 were children. KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora told The Hindu that till Thursday afternoon carcasses of 463 hog deer, 13 rhinos, 16 Sambar, 10 swamp deer, 28 wild boars, 5 porcupines, one wild buffalo and two hog badgers had been recovered. more here
My thoughts and prayers to those effected. I'm very impressed with KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora's ability to keep track of the local animal population.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


are you involved in any research anymore?
if so what?


My current active development & research would probably best be described as modeling/programming/mapping in areas of flash flooding & extreme precipitation events. This development/research focus would be on operational improvements, to be specific (as opposed to purely theoretical).
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I have a masters in Environmental Science and continue to keep up with climate science issues fairly regularly... although not as much of an expert as an PhD-ed, actively-publishing climate scientist, you don't have to remind me of the reality or implications of Arctic sea ice loss. :)

One thing you never hear people talk about is permanent water lock-up, as you would find in the more modern plumbing of new houses and apartments and high-rises in say, China or India, or the A/Cs they're now running that convert otherwise precipitable moisture into condensation drips, or even the physical bodies of new people.

Once that water is locked out of the cycle, how does one replace it?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


God It looks like Daniel,must be the clouds in my eyes
lol..GREAT SONG
Quoting Skyepony:
Sea Ice volume..free falling...


Hey Skye...do you think that the ice will fall below the record low set in 2007?
El Nino?





Or just Neutral plus AGW?



What's the difference?
614. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


My current active development & research would probably best be described as modeling/programming/mapping in areas of flash flooding & extreme precipitation events. This development/research focus would be on operational improvements, to be specific (as opposed to purely theoretical).


what's ya range to study?? usa part of usa or beyond?
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
908 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA..
SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE AFFECTING ALACHUA...BRADFORD...
COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE AND UNION COUNTIES
SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES AFFECTING COLUMBIA...
GILCHRIST AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...RESIDENTS AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT THREATENED PROPERTY. HIGH AND FAST
FLOWING RIVERS ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR RECREATION OF ANY KIND. KEEP
CHILDREN AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH
FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.

&&

FLC001-007-023-041-121-125-080108-
/O.CON.KJAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FWHF1.3.ER.120627T2052Z.120701T0500Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
908 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 5:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.8 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 26.0 FEET
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...DAMAGE TO HOMES AT LOW ELEVATION AS WELL AS
BASEMENT AREAS UNDERNEATH HOMES ON STILTS IS LIKELY.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...MINOR DAMAGE TO DWELLINGS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
BOAT WASH.

&&


FLD OBSERVED 7AM FORECAST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SAT SUN MON TUE WED

SANTA FE
FORT WHITE 24.0 26.8 FRI 05 PM 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.5



$$
looks like 97E is not moveing at all
Quoting CosmicEvents:
My thoughts and prayers to those effected. I'm very impressed with KNP Director Sanjib Kumar Bora's ability to keep track of the local animal population.


I think the preserve is a major tourist draw.

The original reports had over 2000 villages wiped. It was described as unprecedented. Didn't sound like the normal monsoons.
618. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


My current active development & research would probably best be described as modeling/programming/mapping in areas of flash flooding & extreme precipitation events. This development/research focus would be on operational improvements, to be specific (as opposed to purely theoretical).


when studying flooding events do ya consider soil conditions prior to rain event ??? terrain? elevation?
tidal events??? just curious what's involved
619. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like 97E is not moveing at all


almost looked like in took one jog to the south and a jog to the west crazy....
621. yoboi
Quoting Skyepony:


I think the preserve is a major tourist draw.

The original reports had over 2000 villages wiped. It was described as unprecedented. Didn't sound like the normal monsoons.


cell service in impacted area's is not that great in india they depend alot on cell service for weather people there will have a cell phone over a tv it's a little differ there but it's a nice place to visit, when i was there most news is shared by someone with a cell phone did not see that many tv's there....
Quoting RTSplayer:
El Nino?





Or just Neutral plus AGW?



What's the difference?

There seems to be a bit of cooling in the equatorial pacific between 110W and 70W.
Quoting Civicane49:
Good to see we r going to get some rain here... but I have a funeral to attend tomorrow and really don't want to get wet...
Quoting nigel20:

There seems to be a bit of cooling in the equatorial pacific between 110W and 70W.

Edit...That should have been 80W.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


The Scale of the Universe 2


That was one of the coolest things I've ever seen, Georgia... good stuff!
Quoting Skyepony:


I think the preserve is a major tourist draw.

The original reports had over 2000 villages wiped. It was described as unprecedented. Didn't sound like the normal monsoons.
Hey, skye. Looks like it's a match for the excessive heat and dryness, yet again, over Russia.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good to see we r going to get some rain here... but I have a funeral to attend tomorrow and really don't want to get wet...


Funerals suck. Were you close to this person?
Quoting RTSplayer:
El Nino?





Or just Neutral plus AGW?



What's the difference?

What's the SOI? That's based on atmospheric pressures. With El Nino the tradewinds should lessen.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good to see we r going to get some rain here... but I have a funeral to attend tomorrow and really don't want to get wet...

Hopefully you'll be able to attend with little or no interruption!
630. yoboi
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I had a sister-in-law that lived in Brownwood when Alicia hit. They ended up on the roof of the house when the levy over topped and flooded Brownwood. Shortly after this the home owners were bought out and the area turned into a reserve, as you have stated.

I have been through Alicia, Allison, Rita and Ike. Rita actually hit east of me, but Rita took my roof. ... How many of these have been retired? ;-)


i know 3 out of the 4 storms been retired not sure if all 4 have been
Quoting yoboi:


i know 3 out of the 4 storms been retired not sure if all 4 have been


All four have been.
Quoting bappit:

What's the SOI? That's based on atmospheric pressures. With El Nino the tradewinds should lessen.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes. Traditionally, this index has been calculated based on the differences in air pressure anomaly between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative SOI values coincide with abnormally warm ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño episodes. Prolonged periods of positive SOI values coincide with abnormally cold ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of La Niña episodes.
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Skye...do you think that the ice will fall below the record low set in 2007?


Volume is far below the peak melt for that year plus sea ice extent is less at this time of year than it was in 2007, the weather pattern right now is overall bad for the ice..I'd say chances are good the record will once again be broken this year.
634. yoboi
Quoting KoritheMan:


All four have been.


what yr was alicia that one i did not know was it in the middle 80's??? i kinda recall that storm i was working in la porte/ baytown by houston and i think that was alicia
Post#: 633
Thanks for the info, Skye.
Quoting yoboi:


what's ya range to study?? usa part of usa or beyond?

Typically the south central US as that is the area of responsibility for my office. Sometimes I've done work a bit beyond that and cover a good chunk of the central CONUS.
Quoting yoboi:


when studying flooding events do ya consider soil conditions prior to rain event ??? terrain? elevation?
tidal events??? just curious what's involved

Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, and sometimes. For flash flooding, many times the soil type and land use type are the most important. For general flooding, like longer-duration river flooding, all of those things play a large role.
Quoting Skyepony:


Extent is far below the peak melt for that year plus sea ice extent is less at this time of year than it was in 2007, the weather pattern right now is overall bad for the ice..I'd say chances are good the record will once again be broken this year.


I didn't think records were supposed to be broken every year. Yet that seems to be norm lately. And not just for sea ice.

Jesus.
Quoting RTSplayer:


The Sun is theoretically capable of some insane phenomena under the right conditions, but I doubt what I have in mind has happened in a very long time.

The Sun is believed to have several thousand years worth of it's radiation built up inside of it bouncing around, and that it takes several thousand years on average for the light we "see" to have gotten to the surface and escaped as light.

This begs the question, what if a rogue planet, about the size of the Earth hit the Sun hard enough to penetrate relatively deep into it, so that this insane amount of radiation escaped over a matter of a few seconds to a few minutes?

If it was pointed towards the Earth, it would be truly Biblical.

If you released an entire extra day's worth of energy instantaneously, I suspect it would probably thermolize, vaporize, or vitrify everything on one side of the Earth, as the solar constant would be some unimaginably high number, like 118 megawatts per meter squared...for like one second.

Now that's if just one day's worth of energy was released symetrically over one second.

I'm positive that would incinerate everything on at least half of the planet.

Compared to what the Sun is theoretically capable of, even that would be a mere blip.


Really, even one second's worth of that would probably kill everything on the planet unless it's in the deepest caves in the ocean...


It would be FUBAR
Daniel becomes a hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

...DANIEL BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 117.1W
ABOUT 745 MI...1205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Quoting yoboi:


what yr was alicia that one i did not know was it in the middle 80's??? i kinda recall that storm i was working in la porte/ baytown by houston and i think that was alicia


Alicia hit in '83.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't think records were supposed to be broken every year. Yet that seems to be norm lately. And not just for sea ice.

Jesus.


Exactly what to expect when you load the dice, unfortunately.
Quoting LargoFl:
lol..GREAT SONG


INDEED!
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

DANIEL WAS SHOWING HINTS OF AN EYE A FEW HOURS AGO IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY A
RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 75 KT...AND DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A
65-KT HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DANIEL IS
IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE WHEN DANIEL MOVES FARTHER WEST. THE
NHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM 36 HOURS AND
BEYOND...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
THE LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

DANIEL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND DANIEL SHOULD
RESPOND BY MOVING FASTER TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 3 THROUGH
5 WHEN IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. DANIEL
HAS NOT BEEN GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND
THE ECMWF MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST JOB IN
CAPTURING THAT MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.7N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.9N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.2N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.0N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 16.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 16.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Exactly what to expect when you load the dice, unfortunately.


I also happen to think that's the primary reason the US has gotten so lucky with hurricanes the past couple years. The large-scale pattern has featured a persistent heat ridge over the central US, with a trough downstream over the western Atlantic. This has been the case since 2010, and although we have already had two landfalls this year, that pattern seems to be coming back yet again.

I really don't want to attribute climate change to every single weather event. I really don't. But there is honestly zero explanation for why these whacky and seemingly anomalous events are happening more often now.
645. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Typically the south central US as that is the area of responsibility for my office. Sometimes I've done work a bit beyond that and cover a good chunk of the central CONUS.

Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, and sometimes. For flash flooding, many times the soil type and land use type are the most important. For general flooding, like longer-duration river flooding, all of those things play a large role.


do ya also figure concrete areas per sq ft yr by yr to figure runoff??? this type of stuff really interest me....
Quoting KoritheMan:


Funerals suck. Were you close to this person?
Cousin-in-law. His kids and I are "in set" as they say here [meaning of a similar age], so I am going to support the family, more so than because we were close.
Quoting nigel20:

Hopefully you'll be able to attend with little or no interruption!
Hey, Nige... is it still raining there?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Cousin-in-law. His kids and I are "in set" as they say here [meaning of a similar age], so I am going to support the family, more so than because we were close.


Ah. Good deal.
649. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Exactly what to expect when you load the dice, unfortunately.


i would like to know how much sq ft of concrete was in houston in 1980 compared to 2012 i know concrete can't ingest water unless the temp was high an evaperation was considered but i would like to know how fast concrete cools down beyond evaperation, 12 inch slap verses a 20 inch slap also i know concrete know is not as strong now as compared to 20 yrs ago due to the fact now they use limestone as gravel softer stone compared to pea gravel back then, retention heat had to be higher back then lot of stuff ya would have to factor
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Nige... is it still raining there?

No, but I'm happy for the relief that we got from the tropical wave.
651. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:



Currently, the oceans near the poles are sequestering an amount of heat representing a net increase of 0.3C per decade for the average temperature from surface to bottom!

That's right, not just the SST, that's the increase in the Surface-to-bottom average.

The implications of this over the multi-decadal range and into the century range is that at some point, the deep oceans are going to run out of places to store the excess heat, and it will presumably be dumped directly into the ice and atmosphere.


Where on Earth do you get that statistic? Did anybody really say that with a straight face?


EURO wants 3 at once
Quoting wxmod:


Where on Earth do you get that statistic? Did anybody really say that with a straight face?



It has been reported in several science papers, and has been cited many times on various articles on physdotorg.


Tell you what, to make things easier, just visit neven's site and pay attention on the blog there for a while, as well as the articles.

Neven's site for sea ice discussion and updates


And now to clarify something, temperatures in high latitudes is not the same thing as "global averages".
654. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Typically the south central US as that is the area of responsibility for my office. Sometimes I've done work a bit beyond that and cover a good chunk of the central CONUS.

Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, and sometimes. For flash flooding, many times the soil type and land use type are the most important. For general flooding, like longer-duration river flooding, all of those things play a large role.



do ya'll also consider the new zonning laws about retention ponds and the levels of the retention ponds prior to a rain event?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


EURO wants 3 at once

Triplet
657. wxmod
Quoting PlazaRed:

There's nowhere else for it to go.
It cant go down into the seabed; so it must migrate up through the ice into the atmosphere. This will lead to increased heat over the North pole and added surface to cloud level activity.
As I keep moaning about this, it will lead to surface storms in the Arctic and churn up the dormant waters which have been moribund for millennium!
All I can add to this is that I hope I can exist long enough to see what happens. Its going to be interesting to say the least!


I hope to see what happens too, but that's unlikely. I want to watch as the people who promoted big oil and coal all take out their guns and start shooting each other, cause they won't have any other "solutions" to the problem. What happens to people's brains when they reach 126 degrees?
Quoting yoboi:


do ya also figure concrete areas per sq ft yr by yr to figure runoff??? this type of stuff really interest me....

What you are discussing is generally referred to as "impervious area." It can be estimated through manual digitizing of aerial/satellite pictures and ground surveys, or estimated through satellite-based remote sensing. Impervious areas allow rainfall to immediately runoff into drainages and then streams/rivers - it can skip the soil entirely. Very important to modeling flash floods in particular and fits in with "land use" like I mentioned earlier. This data can be viewed/downloaded from the USGS on the Seamless server.
Quoting yoboi:



do ya'll also consider the new zonning laws about retention ponds and the levels of the retention ponds prior to a rain event?

Depends.... for day to day stuff, that is just too much detail to try and take into account for such a large area. If one were doing an in-depth study of a very small watershed, especially in urban areas, those things would probably be looked at. Many times in the bigger picture those types of things are just lumped into other parameters. Even if we wanted to take levels of retention ponds into account, we typically have no automated data for such structures indicating their storage at the start of a rainfall event.
659. yoboi
google ISO Insurance Service Office, they figure all the built upon area's, an calculate a flooding risk due to all the natural ground being covered with concrete wonder why flooding is worse than say 20 yrs agao also eliminating natural habitat temps have risen look where most of temps are taking for global studies usually at an air port where more an more concrete is being poured, black top roads we are building and growing more things that hold heat in the USA/ just think what china has poured in the past 10 yrs we are building things at a fast rate all across this globe that retains heat, has DR M ever discussed this or thought about it??
Quoting yoboi:
google ISO Insurance Service Office, they figure all the built upon area's, an calculate a flooding risk due to all the natural ground being covered with concrete wonder why flooding is worse than say 20 yrs agao also eliminating natural habitat temps have risen look where most of temps are taking for global studies usually at an air port where more an more concrete is being poured, black top roads we are building and growing more things that hold heat in the USA/ just think what china has poured in the past 10 yrs we are building things at a fast rate all across this globe that retains heat, has DR M ever discussed this or thought about it??


That is called Urban Heat Island effect and it's a well known phenomenon that is already taken into consideration in global warming studies.
Quoting wxmod:


What happens to people's brains when they reach 126 degrees?


You mean here on WU? We mostly drink Fresca to cool down.
could this be what the ECW is picking up on be hid 97E?



663. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

What you are discussing is generally referred to as "impervious area." It can be estimated through manual digitizing of aerial/satellite pictures and ground surveys, or estimated through satellite-based remote sensing. Impervious areas allow rainfall to immediately runoff into drainages and then streams/rivers - it can skip the soil entirely. Very important to modeling flash floods in particular and fits in with "land use" like I mentioned earlier. This data can be viewed/downloaded from the USGS on the Seamless server.

Depends.... for day to day stuff, that is just too much detail to try and take into account for such a large area. If one were doing an in-depth study of a very small watershed, especially in urban areas, those things would probably be looked at. Many times in the bigger picture those types of things are just lumped into other parameters. Even if we wanted to take levels of retention ponds into account, we typically have no automated data for such structures indicating their storage at the start of a rainfall event.


i can tell ya right now not many slopes into retention ponds are built to the right grade i have seen things built on a 20 degree slop and runoff is so quick most inspectors don't look to see if slop is at code they are building things almost forcing things like ya live in a valley and 1 inch of rain today is not like 1 inch of rain 10 yrs ago that's why we having more flash flooding events now just things i see...
Quoting yoboi:
google ISO Insurance Service Office, they figure all the built upon area's, an calculate a flooding risk due to all the natural ground being covered with concrete wonder why flooding is worse than say 20 yrs agao also eliminating natural habitat temps have risen look where most of temps are taking for global studies usually at an air port where more an more concrete is being poured, black top roads we are building and growing more things that hold heat in the USA/ just think what china has poured in the past 10 yrs we are building things at a fast rate all across this globe that retains heat, has DR M ever discussed this or thought about it??


A) Good that insurance groups would take such important things into account when assessing risk. There are also the flood insurance/risk maps from FEMA.

B.1) In regards to temperature trends and possible contamination from station siting, this has actually been looked into numerous times by several independent groups. I also believe that Dr. Masters has discussed it at least once. The urban heat island effect is clearly real, but just because a station is in an urban area does not mean it will always be warmer, nor does it mean that its "warmness" will get worse over time. This effect has be analyzed and shown to have little, if any, impact on the global trends. Some studies have even indicated that poor station siting might be causing an apparent reduced rate of warming. It is important to keep in mind that there are no urban heat islands in the oceans (which are also showing substantial warming), and satellite estimates of lower troposphere temperature show the same rate of warming as the land-based stations.

B.2) Even if urban heat island effects were increasing over time and contributing significantly to the observed trends, they would still be an anthropogenic forcing, and the warming would be real.
665. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:



It has been reported in several science papers, and has been cited many times on various articles on physdotorg.


Tell you what, to make things easier, just visit neven's site and pay attention on the blog there for a while, as well as the articles.

Neven's site for sea ice discussion and updates


And now to clarify something, temperatures in high latitudes is not the same thing as "global averages".


I don't mean to critique this figure, but people just plain ol don't know everything, especially evident in models that deal with things that have never happened before.
Rain for Florida?

667. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

What you are discussing is generally referred to as "impervious area." It can be estimated through manual digitizing of aerial/satellite pictures and ground surveys, or estimated through satellite-based remote sensing. Impervious areas allow rainfall to immediately runoff into drainages and then streams/rivers - it can skip the soil entirely. Very important to modeling flash floods in particular and fits in with "land use" like I mentioned earlier. This data can be viewed/downloaded from the USGS on the Seamless server.

Depends.... for day to day stuff, that is just too much detail to try and take into account for such a large area. If one were doing an in-depth study of a very small watershed, especially in urban areas, those things would probably be looked at. Many times in the bigger picture those types of things are just lumped into other parameters. Even if we wanted to take levels of retention ponds into account, we typically have no automated data for such structures indicating their storage at the start of a rainfall event.


have ya'll ever looked to see how much hard surace area a town has say to compared to 10-15 yrs ago figuring economic booms a state might be expericing and do ya have access to gov sat maps because the ones i have access are a yr old because when they do fly overs is during winter when tree forage is less i have no access to military sat maps
Fabio will probably form from the wave that is in the central caribbean.
Quoting Grothar:
Rain for Florida?





you think?



i would say YES!
Quoting Grothar:
Rain for Florida?



that has a much more ominous look this evening! anything going on in there?
671. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


A) Good that insurance groups would take such important things into account when assessing risk. There are also the flood insurance/risk maps from FEMA.

B.1) In regards to temperature trends and possible contamination from station siting, this has actually been looked into numerous times by several independent groups. I also believe that Dr. Masters has discussed it at least once. The urban heat island effect is clearly real, but just because a station is in an urban area does not mean it will always be warmer, nor does it mean that its "warmness" will get worse over time. This effect has be analyzed and shown to have little, if any, impact on the global trends. Some studies have even indicated that poor station siting might be causing an apparent reduced rate of warming. It is important to keep in mind that there are no urban heat islands in the oceans (which are also showing substantial warming), and satellite estimates of lower troposphere temperature show the same rate of warming as the land-based stations.

B.2) Even if urban heat island effects were increasing over time and contributing significantly to the observed trends, they would still be an anthropogenic forcing, and the warming would be real.



i figure heat rises, just going by what i seen as a fire fighter now a civil engineer, take the thermal layer with heat rising and factor in wind speed an direction an when reaches cooler temps heat will fall like putting out a fire heat rises over land crosses water most times cooler drops down to lower level will heat water
Quoting Tazmanian:




you think?



i would say YES!


Hey, Taz
emguy last night was saying to keep an eye on it as it pulled away from the Dominican Republic
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


that has a much more ominous look this evening! anything going on in there?


Are you talking about here or with the wave? :)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
emguy last night was saying to keep an eye on it as it pulled away from the Dominican Republic



I said it first :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Funerals suck. Were you close to this person?


I would suspect that this person is close to the expired individual or we would not attend the funeral. As far as the weather goes Texas still needs the rain in all areas. Bring it on please.
678. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


A) Good that insurance groups would take such important things into account when assessing risk. There are also the flood insurance/risk maps from FEMA.

B.1) In regards to temperature trends and possible contamination from station siting, this has actually been looked into numerous times by several independent groups. I also believe that Dr. Masters has discussed it at least once. The urban heat island effect is clearly real, but just because a station is in an urban area does not mean it will always be warmer, nor does it mean that its "warmness" will get worse over time. This effect has be analyzed and shown to have little, if any, impact on the global trends. Some studies have even indicated that poor station siting might be causing an apparent reduced rate of warming. It is important to keep in mind that there are no urban heat islands in the oceans (which are also showing substantial warming), and satellite estimates of lower troposphere temperature show the same rate of warming as the land-based stations.

B.2) Even if urban heat island effects were increasing over time and contributing significantly to the observed trends, they would still be an anthropogenic forcing, and the warming would be real.


i am not saying this is the exact big picture in global warming but i feel it's a major factor just by applying simple physics to the equation, ask yourself this if the whole wworld was covered in a hard surface how do ya think that would affect temps an flash flooding? compare how much grass we had on the globe 100 yrs ago to present day, heat will rise until a cool temp is injected -water temps once that is injected heat falls, ya can walk into a house fire open up fog pattern on nozzle water will evap until temps come down then turn into steam prior to that once ya cool the thermal barrier drop it down to the surface extequish fire
Quoting Skyepony:


Hi, Skye. so what do you think?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
emguy last night was saying to keep an eye on it as it pulled away from the Dominican Republic


I really still say it wont develop.
I said it first.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Taz



Hi getting a ipad 2 next Friday
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


EURO wants 3 at once


683. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


A) Good that insurance groups would take such important things into account when assessing risk. There are also the flood insurance/risk maps from FEMA.

B.1) In regards to temperature trends and possible contamination from station siting, this has actually been looked into numerous times by several independent groups. I also believe that Dr. Masters has discussed it at least once. The urban heat island effect is clearly real, but just because a station is in an urban area does not mean it will always be warmer, nor does it mean that its "warmness" will get worse over time. This effect has be analyzed and shown to have little, if any, impact on the global trends. Some studies have even indicated that poor station siting might be causing an apparent reduced rate of warming. It is important to keep in mind that there are no urban heat islands in the oceans (which are also showing substantial warming), and satellite estimates of lower troposphere temperature show the same rate of warming as the land-based stations.

B.2) Even if urban heat island effects were increasing over time and contributing significantly to the observed trends, they would still be an anthropogenic forcing, and the warming would be real.


also google what bill gates had in mind after 2005 hurricane season, if ya drop huge amounts of ice in a storm and cool sst's below what a trop storm needs could it survive???? after he seen how much it would cost to do that for 1 storm he dropped the idea but with the money ya could do it
Quoting Grothar:
Rain for Florida?



A slight increase in moisture BUT bet it fizzles.
685. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:



Hi getting a ipad 2 next Friday


go to mexico an get it tomm for half the cost
Quoting Grothar:


Hi, Skye. so what do you think?


Upper shear over the Bahama/Cuba blob is 15-30kts. Mid-level shear that a weak/shallow storm could live under is 10-kts or less. No convergence at the surface but has decent divergence aloft. Vorticity near the surface is unimpressive. Maybe enhanced chance of rain for FL tomorrow looks to be a good call.
Quoting Grothar:



I said it first :)


As always sir
Quoting yoboi:


go to mexico an get it tomm for half the cost


No thank you I will get my local walmart 4 399


door open should anything be in the area?
Rain over the east coast of Fl would be nice
How strong should 97E be if it develops and where would it go? Also is there a chance that Daniel gets stronger than forecasted? I have been gone/ busy all day so I just found out 97E and Daniel becoming a hurricane. TIA
Quoting yoboi:


also google what bill gates had in mind after 2005 hurricane season, if ya drop huge amounts of ice in a storm and cool sst's below what a trop storm needs could it survive???? after he seen how much it would cost to do that for 1 storm he dropped the idea but with the money ya could do it

You could bail out all of the EU, too, probably--although any heat absorbed by the ice would already have been released into the environment wherever the ice was manufactured--and then some.
Quoting Grothar:


Are you talking about here or with the wave? :)


LOL coin flip :)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I really still say it wont develop.
I said it first.


Does look like it's got a bit more ooooomph tonight. is it a DMAX-DMIN thing?

Quoting owntime:


I would suspect that this person is close to the expired individual or we would not attend the funeral.
Not really. I've attended several funerals for the sole purpose of providing support, but I wasn't at all close to the deceased. Remember, we are talking about the individual -- the one who's dead. I never said he wasn't close to the other attendants.

Quoting wxchaser97:
How strong should 97E be if it develops and where would it go? Also is there a chance that Daniel gets stronger than forecasted? I have been gone/ busy all day so I just found out 97E and Daniel becoming a hurricane. TIA
Daniel only has about 12 hours to strengthen further. 97E/Emilia will likely follow the same trajectory as Daniel.
Quoting Grothar:



I said it first :)


You are of course Grothar Guru of Guessdom!!!
I don't know if anyone still cares about this string of our thread, but Dr M DID post about the heat island effect and any possible temperature measurement anomalies this may cause here:
Link

Nothing directly relating to the flash flood aspect of it, but there's certainly an argument to be made there. I know where I live (MN), 3"+ rainfalls have doubled in frequency, which is certainly (at least partially) related to the increased amount of water vapor our warmer planet can hold...

Quoting yoboi:
google ISO Insurance Service Office, they figure all the built upon area's, an calculate a flooding risk due to all the natural ground being covered with concrete wonder why flooding is worse than say 20 yrs agao also eliminating natural habitat temps have risen look where most of temps are taking for global studies usually at an air port where more an more concrete is being poured, black top roads we are building and growing more things that hold heat in the USA/ just think what china has poured in the past 10 yrs we are building things at a fast rate all across this globe that retains heat, has DR M ever discussed this or thought about it??
Quoting Skyepony:



Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, is that a closed circulation?
701. 7544
hmmmmm home grown action with that bahama wave ?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, is that a closed circulation?


No where near. Scroll back for the recent ASCAT.
Quoting Skyepony:

I love those night time shots. Glad I'm in a dark spot.
Quoting 7544:
hmmmmm home grown action with that bahama wave ?

nope
Quoting wxchaser97:
How strong should 97E be if it develops and where would it go? Also is there a chance that Daniel gets stronger than forecasted? I have been gone/ busy all day so I just found out 97E and Daniel becoming a hurricane. TIA


Some of the models forecast 97E to become a hurricane. 97E is expected to move west-northwestward and not threaten any landmasses, similar to Daniel's track.

I doubt that Daniel gets stronger than it is forecast as it has about 12 hours left of remaining in warm waters and in moist environment.
Actually really died back in the last hour. Maybe starting to refire over The Bahamas. Click pic for loop.
707. 7544
what ever th wave is looks like it heading forrrrrrrrr
708. wxmod
How fast does ice melt in Greenland? The top photo was taken on June 27. The bottom photo was taken July 6.




The west side still hasn't closed? Thats what I see. Is that a correct interpretation?
Quoting 7544:
what ever th wave is looks like it heading forrrrrrrrr


LOL
"Come Monday 30 years ago..a nightmare, has to be revisited.

We owe it to the lost..the weather involved, and the safety it eventually brought about to all US air travel."

Pan Am Flight 759

Pan Am Flight 759, operated by a Boeing 727-235, N4737 Clipper Defiance, was a regularly scheduled passenger flight from Miami to Las Vegas, with an en route stop at New Orleans. On July 9, 1982 at 4:07:57 PM central daylight time, Flight 759, with seven crew members, one non-revenue passenger in the cockpit jumpseat, and 137 passengers (a total of 145 on board), began its takeoff from runway 10 at the New Orleans International Airport (now Louis Armstrong International), in Kenner, Louisiana.



record high low temps in the upper midwest. does not seeem to be cooling at the forcasted levels
could use a respite from this heat without ac
oh well you take what u can
Cloudsat of the wave that is about to come off Africa.
Then a miracle was found, ..revealed, Yelled about..cheered.

The aircraft was destroyed during the impact, explosion, and subsequent ground fire. A total of 153 people were killed (145 passengers and crew on board and 8 on the ground). Another 4 people on the ground sustained injuries.

In one of the destroyed houses, a baby was discovered in a crib covered with debris that protected her from the flames.


Six houses were destroyed; five houses were damaged substantially.

Shes a Mother..30 years later.


a cold front blew through minnesota today, and cooled us down to below 70. about time, if you ask me. wherever you are, it's coming to you too, don't worry!

Quoting tazmaniad:
record high low temps in the upper midwest. does not seeem to be cooling at the forcasted levels
could use a respite from this heat without ac
oh well you take what u can
Quoting Skyepony:
Cloudsat of the wave that is about to come off Africa.
do you it has potential to become something in the future?
Chances for development this month appear low until the last week of July IMO.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Chances for development this month appear low until the last week of July IMO.


Agreed. Said that before Debby dissipated.
Some of you are talking about how El Nino will supress tropical activity in the Atlantic this year. However, consider this, the El Ninos of 2002, 2006, and 2009 still managed to generate 12, 9, and 9 named storms after July 10th, respectively. So lets say we take the average of these, that would be 10 additional storms, on top of the 4 we've already had. Therefore, maybe ending up with 14 storms by the end of the season may seem reasonable.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir .html

Check out the infrared image right now... the high is clearly outlined by a ring of precipitation...



we had a pretty intense lightning storm the other night just as the local fireworks were starting to go off...
It was one of those storms that you could see spitting out lightning in the distance for a solid 30-45 minutes.
To be honest, the storm was more impressive than my local fireworks--even when it was a good 15 miles away.. this photo was taken about 20 miles down the river.



Link
A shot of Egmont Key from Eagle 8, courtesy of Meteorologist Brooks Garner.

Quoting Patrap:
"Come Monday 30 years ago..a nightmare, has to be revisited.

We owe it to the lost..the weather involved, and the safety it eventually brought about to all US air travel."

Pan Am Flight 759

Pan Am Flight 759, operated by a Boeing 727-235, N4737 Clipper Defiance, was a regularly scheduled passenger flight from Miami to Las Vegas, with an en route stop at New Orleans. On July 9, 1982 at 4:07:57 PM central daylight time, Flight 759, with seven crew members, one non-revenue passenger in the cockpit jumpseat, and 137 passengers (a total of 145 on board), began its takeoff from runway 10 at the New Orleans International Airport (now Louis Armstrong International), in Kenner, Louisiana.





My aunt lives 4 houses down from where the baby was found. We didn't know if my aunt was alive or not. My parents dragged us to the accident scene and I was in 7th grade. Had nightmares about all the sticks with fluorescent ribbon representing bodies found and about the body bags. If you look at news broadcasts, you will see my family and that is my cousin with the black hair with gret patch on the newsfeeds. Can't believe it has been 30 years.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
we had a pretty intense lightning storm the other night just as the local fireworks were starting to go off...
It was one of those storms that you could see spitting out lightning in the distance for a good 20-30 minutes.
To be honest, the storm was more impressive than my local fireworks--even when it was a good 15 miles away.. this photo was taken about 20 miles down the river.


Link
Awesome shot!
Quoting spleenstomper:


My aunt lives 4 houses down from where the baby was found. We didn't know if my aunt was alive or not. My parents dragged us to the accident scene and I was in 7th grade. Had nightmares about all the sticks with fluorescent ribbon representing bodies found and about the body bags. If you look at news broadcasts, you will see my family and that is my cousin with the black hair with gret patch on the newsfeeds. Can't believe it has been 30 years.


Grew up in Westgate behind Chapelle High myself.


I was in the Field in 29 Palms, Cali on a CAX Air Wing Runway 8 miles in the Desert.
I heard about it a few minutes after from the ATC Guys. I ran to a Major's Tent, he saw a winded flushed Cpl.

What ya need? He Asked.

"A Commercial Airliner went down near my Home. I need to call Home now".

Whats the number son?..he barked.

Some things stick with yas.


a bit old?....................my bad
Quoting KoritheMan:

Not really. I've attended several funerals for the sole purpose of providing support, but I wasn't at all close to the deceased. Remember, we are talking about the individual -- the one who's dead. I never said he wasn't close to the other attendants.
I find that different societies have different practices. I find here - and to a certain extent throughout the Southern US - one attends the funeral to support the deceased person's family as much as or sometimes more than out of love / respect / close relationship with the deceased. This is particularly true if you, like me, have a large extended family. In other societies, large crowds at the funeral symbolizes excessive stress on the bereaved family, so only those who feel genuinely bereaved attend the funeral.

In any case, I think I'm going to go out and turn my car around before I head to bed tonight, because it looks like it's likely to rain before I get up in the morning...

Quoting Patrap:


Grew up in Westgate behind Chapelle High myself.


I was in the Field in 29 Palms, Cali on a CAX Air Wing Runway 8 miles in the Desert.
I heard about it a few minutes after from the ATC Guys. I ran to a Major's Tent, he saw a winded flushed Cpl.

What ya need? He Asked.

"A Commercial Airliner went down near my Home. I need to call Home now".

Whats the number son?..he barked.

Some things stick with yas.


I misspoke... She lived a few houses down from the little girl on the porch. Fairway Dr almost at 17th street.

We obviously didn't get onto the scene until the next day. My parents erred in judgement bringing us there. I can still SMELL it when I think about it.
It is late... That day we stood on w. Napoleon(is is w. Napoleon? I haven lived there is decades) by Roosevelt looking to see if we could see my aunt. The next day, because my aunt lived there, we were able to visit her and walk around. She still lives there.
Quoting Patrap:


Grew up in Westgate behind Chapelle High myself.


I was in the Field in 29 Palms, Cali on a CAX Air Wing Runway 8 miles in the Desert.
I heard about it a few minutes after from the ATC Guys. I ran to a Major's Tent, he saw a winded flushed Cpl.

What ya need? He Asked.

"A Commercial Airliner went down near my Home. I need to call Home now".

Whats the number son?..he barked.

Some things stick with yas.


Did you get a busy signal? We did because the phone lines were knocked down. You must have been at wits end given how far away you were and with no Internet and twitter...
West Metairie and Roosevelt Blvd,the Shell Station.
Quoting spleenstomper:


Did you get a busy signal? We did because the phone lines were knocked down. You must have been at wits end given how far away you were and with no Internet and twitter...


My Dad answered as he just got off at 4pm from Shell Norco and had just came down Roosevelt to Westgate 8-9 minutes before it happened..so I knew right away by his tone it was bad as he could smell the JP-4 even his way.
Quoting spleenstomper:


I misspoke... She lived a few houses down from the little girl on the porch. Fairway Dr almost at 17th street.

We obviously didn't get onto the scene until the next day. My parents erred in judgement bringing us there. I can still SMELL it when I think about it.


I dated a Girl named Diane that lived right close there too.
Quoting Patrap:


My Dad answered as he just got off at 4pm from Shell Norco and had just came down Roosevelt to Westgate 8-9 minutes before it happened..so I knew right away by his tone it was bad as he could smell the JP-4 even his way.
Quoting Patrap:


My Dad answered as he just got off at 4pm from Shell Norco and had just came down Roosevelt to Westgate 8-9 minutes before it happened..so I knew right away by his tone it was bad as he could smell the JP-4 even his way.


Acrid. I don't think it was only JP-4 we were smelling. :( did you read the FAA report? So interesting/horrible/gruesome/sad.

Going to say a prayer then off to bed.... Night.
Quoting spleenstomper:


Acrid. I don't think it was only JP-4 we were smelling. :( did you read the FAA report? So interesting/horrible/gruesome/sad.

Going to say a prayer then off to bed.... Night.


I read the NTSB report and heard the Tapes.

They were trying to make the canal, to avoid the Homes but Airspeed and angle of attack was both lost..and the tree somersaulted the aircraft thru the Hood.

They made a bad decision to roll V1,V2 into a July Thunderstorm.

And with Full Crew and Passengers aboard, Load,fuel,a Micro-Burst..,well, fate turned and it happened.

Am going to the Mass Monday.

I will think of you and yours then and now.

G'night.
One last thing: in looking at that map, I remember the brunt of the houses being between 16 and 17th street, not 17th and W. Metairie. But I could be wrong. I do remember some houses at 17th being obliterated-- they had to drain a pool to get a bunch of bodies out. But I remember several on the next block going toward Airline. But like I said, I could be rusty on that part.
NTSB, right... Not FAA. Thanks for the thoughts... I imagine my aunt will be at mass too.
Quoting Civicane49:
Daniel becomes a hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

...DANIEL BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 117.1W
ABOUT 745 MI...1205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


Yay! I'm a hurricane... haha! That's my name!



LOL CMC AGAIN
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



LOL

That's not gonna happen ; )
Does anyone remember Gustav? that storm scared the heck out of me, when I saw water splashing over the Industrail Canal on TV, for about an hour, I was freaking out, I was thinking Katrina II.

I have video of that.
Quoting GPTGUY:

Does anyone remember Gustav? that storm scared the heck out of me, when I saw water splashing over the Industrail Canal on TV, for about an hour, I was freaking out, I was thinking Katrina II.

I have video of that.


Link
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


CMC
When is that suppose to happèn
TPZ44 KNHC 070833
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

HINTS OF AN EYE ARE APPARENT IN THE LAST FEW GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES. THIS EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE
DATA SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC...AND A SSMIS PASS AROUND 0400 UTC
INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS RAGGED. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED A LITTLE TO 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATES. DANIEL WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THESE
COMBINED FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING STARTING IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED 10 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE MODIFIED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 118.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.8N 119.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.1N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.4N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.7N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 16.2N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 16.3N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Good morning. Daniel has become quite a nice storm...

July is starting yo get boring! El nino go away please we need rain!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


NOGAPS
The models make me look like I know what I'm doing
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Daniel has become quite a nice storm...



Good morning.It has around 12-18 hours left before it hits cooler waters.

WOAH, whats up with the CMC and UKMET?

theyve gone crazy, the wave wont develop
Quoting LargoFl:


When do people realize that waves fizzle when they hop off of africa?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

WOAH, whats up with the CMC and UKMET?

theyve gone crazy, the wave wont develop
Ik but it shows the wave going where I think it goes soo.

Cmc is apocalyptic
Ukmet has brain disease
Lol.

Someone doesn't like seaside
Quoting Patrap:
Then a miracle was found, ..revealed, Yelled about..cheered.

The aircraft was destroyed during the impact, explosion, and subsequent ground fire. A total of 153 people were killed (145 passengers and crew on board and 8 on the ground). Another 4 people on the ground sustained injuries.

In one of the destroyed houses, a baby was discovered in a crib covered with debris that protected her from the flames.


Six houses were destroyed; five houses were damaged substantially.

Shes a Mother..30 years later.





I went to an After Action Class, by the Fire Chief, when he gave the class, he was still distraught and that was a year after the crash, I will never forget this guy!
Daniel expected to go down...

97L will repeat the same story....?

African wave fighting SAL...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 7 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yay! I'm a hurricane... haha! That's my name!

Omg you too!?!?
Quoting sunlinepr:
African wave fighting SAL...



Hi pr. Is there a tiny circulation in that small ball around 9N-40W?
on a delta flight from prico to new orleans fourty yrs ago one of the engines exploded and we had to make a landing in miami there were firetrucks on the side of the runway waiting. no problems though. man is not meant to fly except in our dreams
Quoting sunlinepr:
Daniel expected to go down...

headed to hi.they can expect some rainshowers from it in a few days
Quoting islander101010:
on a delta flight from prico to new orleans fourty yrs ago one of the engines exploded and we had to make a landing in miami there were firetrucks on the side of the runway waiting. no problems though. man is not meant to fly except in our dreams


Keep saying that to yourself... I don't like your register date...
Up to 75kts.

EP, 04, 2012070712, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1186W, 75, 980, HU
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting allancalderini:
When is that suppose to happèn


I think they are dated 120625.
Quoting yoboi:


have ya'll ever looked to see how much hard surace area a town has say to compared to 10-15 yrs ago figuring economic booms a state might be expericing and do ya have access to gov sat maps because the ones i have access are a yr old because when they do fly overs is during winter when tree forage is less i have no access to military sat maps


If you have the ability to view GIS gridded data, you can download the 2001 and 2006 impervious surface estimates from the USGS Seamless server:
http://seamless.usgs.gov/website/seamless/viewer. htm

This would give you a way to estimate impervious surface changes, at least over a short period. I believe there are other papers out there on this topic. One pet project of mine for the last few years has been to try and digitize buildings and paved surfaces from old aerial imagery back to 1930 for a rapidly urbanizing watershed to use in a model to estimate the impact on flash flooding.
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
I don't know if anyone still cares about this string of our thread, but Dr M DID post about the heat island effect and any possible temperature measurement anomalies this may cause here:
Link

Nothing directly relating to the flash flood aspect of it, but there's certainly an argument to be made there. I know where I live (MN), 3"+ rainfalls have doubled in frequency, which is certainly (at least partially) related to the increased amount of water vapor our warmer planet can hold...



There is at least some evidence suggesting that the urban heat island effect has changed rainfall patterns "downwind" of large urban areas. Clearly it's real and it is having an effect, but urban areas are the minority of land areas, and land areas are the minority of our planet's surface. The effect averaged globally is just not significant.

In regards to the increase in high-end precipitation events, are you referring to the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization report?
http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/reports_3.htm