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Heat wave shifts to the Midwest; Waldo Canyon Fire still 5% contained

By: Angela Fritz 8:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2012

The ridge of high pressure causing this week's record-setting heat wave continues to drift east today, and will inflict extreme June heat across most of the central U.S. and Midwest on Thursday. Triple-digit heat (and heat indices) will be widespread from the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (St. Louis, Louisville, Memphis). Ann Arbor, Michigan has reached 100° as of 4pm EDT. Heat advisories spread from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina.

On Wednesday, 16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas, and 47 month-of-June records were either broken or tied. 66 warm overnight low records were also tied, 8 of which were all-time records for the month of June. The temperature did not get below 81° in Lamar, Colorado Tuesday night. The overnight low temperature is an important barometer for public health and safety in extreme heat waves; if the mercury does not drop significantly, our bodies (the sick and elderly, in particular) cannot recuperate.


Figure 1. Heat advisories (pink) from Kansas north to Michigan, and as far southeast as North and South Carolina on Thursday, where heat indices are expected to reach 105, as much as 110 in some places.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, wraps up yesterday's significant temperature records:

• Lamar, Colorado hit 112°, which is the city's hottest ever reading, beating 111° measured a few days ago and also on July 13, 1934.

• Dodge City, Kansas finally broke free of its multiple 110° previous all-time records with 111° on Wednesday. Dodge City has one of longest periods of record in the United States, with temperature records beginning on September 15, 1874.

• Hill City, Kansas hit 115° as it did on Tuesday as well, again just 1° short of all-time Kansas STATE June record of 116° set at Hugoton on June 25, 1911.

• Tucumcari, New Mexico hit 108°, just 1° short of all-time record as was the case in Goodland, Kansas and many others.

Waldo Canyon Fire gains 5,000 acres, still 5% contained

18,500 acres (up from 13,5000 on Wednesday) have been consumed, and $3.2 million spent fighting, in the Waldo Canyon Fire which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs and encroaching on the city. The fire remains 5% contained. Around 32,000 people have been evacuated as of Thursday morning as fire fighters continue to battle the blaze, with some help from the weather. Colorado Springs is forecast to reach 97° on Thursday, though it will be slightly cooler in the hills where the majority of the fire is burning. The red flag warnings have been dropped as wind speeds calm to 5-10 mph out of the northwest. However, humidity will still be relatively low, around 15% at the peak heat of the day. Thunderstorms are in the forecast, which creates the threat of lightning-induced fires


A giant plume from the Waldo Canyon Fire hovers high above Garden of the Gods near Colorado Springs, Colo. on Saturday, June 23, 2012. The fire is zero percent contained and has consumed 2500 acres. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations were taking place across the west side of Colorado Springs. Tankers were dropping fire retardant in front of the advancing flames. (AP Photo/Bryan Oller)

In the Tropics…

An African easterly wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing some disorganized thunderstorm activity. The circulation in the wave is moderate but somewhat displaced from the strongest thunderstorm activity, though given the moderate wind shear the wave is experiencing that's not surprising. Sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this wave a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours.

There are a couple more tropical waves expected to leave the coast of Africa in the next week or so, neither of which are showing any signs of development in the models.

Angela

Heat Fire Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think what some of us theorized about is finally coming to fruition. The cold waters in the Gulf of Guinea is enhancing the ITCZ and AEJ, allowing for more healthy waves to come off. We'll see if Levi's thoughts about the waves not developing until they reach the Caribbean/Bahamas region comes to pass later this season.


I think one of the big players in waves developing in the MDR of the ATL is SAL. If the SAL is strong, waves won't pop. If it is weak, it will be a loooong season.

Lately, SAL hasn't been very gentle, so I'm guessing that Levi's call is spot-on. A fresh blast of dust is coming off Africa right now, too.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

To further add to this, in my opinion, the east Atlantic won't be as dead as some are making it out to be. Conditions are still running below average to near average for TC development in that area, with no signs of changing anytime soon. While this season will probably be a close-to-home year, I still think we'll get a handful of Cape Verde hurricanes/storms.


It doesnt matter how healthy the waves are if they die within a week of leaving Africa.
We'll see a lot of that this year if the boy sets in.
A Modiki Boy with those waves coming off the coast could be a problem with one or two storms
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think what some of us theorized about is finally coming to fruition. The cold waters in the Gulf of Guinea is enhancing the ITCZ and AEJ, allowing for more healthy waves to come off. We'll see if Levi's thoughts about the waves not developing until they reach the Caribbean/Bahamas region comes to pass later this season.


For those who may not know where the Gulf of Guinea is,here it is at the bottom right.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ooh, that thing has more spin than the AOI did when it left the coast.


A lot of waves Get off of Africa and lose there convection, not saying it will happen but it may
Good morning to all from the left coast
ST. PETERSBURG --
Two Panama City area men believed dead and lost at sea were rescued Thursday as they drifted on a raft - almost a week after their boat sank in the Gulf of Mexico.


The U.S. Coast Guard told Bay News 9 on Thursday night the men were on a barge trip destined for Cancun, Mexico. Gerald Cheser and Vance Bryan, from Panama City, were ultimately bound for Belize.

Their boat sank Sunday in the Gulf, northwest of Tarpon Springs.


"We had been in the live raft for about seven days,'' said Bryan, retelling his ordeal Friday morning on dry land. "It was terrifying (but) we knew someone was looking for us. Thank God for the U.S. Coast Guard. Without them, it would have been over with.''

Cheser's mother, Joyce Bell, said her son and Bryan's barge capsized as a large wave hit them and it sank into the Gulf of Mexico, forcing the men to evacuate into a raft and begin drifting in the water.

The USCG in St. Petersburg received a call around 11 a.m. Sunday from a friend of one of the men stating the two men left from Captiva Island, south of Sarasota, on June 18 and were scheduled to arrive in Cancun on Saturday.

The men had not arrived on schedule and had not made contact with anyone to update their position in the Gulf, the person said. According to a USCG spokesperson, a C-130 aircraft was first launched from Coast Guard Air Station Clearwater around 1 p.m. Sunday to begin a search.


Bell said she and Cheser's family first received word that something was wrong Tuesday around 4 p.m.



A happy ending to that story and oh what a story they have to tell.
Three more people were rescued from rip tides yesterday at Clearwater Beach a day after 8 were rescued the day before in St Pete resulting in one fatality. The woman was in bad condition yesterday when transported to the hospital. No rip tide warnings here today and with a lot of people heading here for the 4th of July I hope it stays that way. How sad to go on vacation and go home minus a family member.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It doesnt matter how healthy the waves are if they die within a week of leaving Africa.
We'll see a lot of that this year if the boy sets in.
A Modiki Boy with those waves coming off the coast could be a problem with one or two storms


Just say el niño. Some people didn't learn Spanish in high school.

You are adamant about wave deaths lol
I hope a Modoki el nino does form.
All the SAL is north of the wave
Quoting jeffs713:


I think one of the big players in waves developing in the MDR of the ATL is SAL. If the SAL is strong, waves won't pop. If it is weak, it will be a loooong season.

Lately, SAL hasn't been very gentle, so I'm guessing that Levi's call is spot-on. A fresh blast of dust is coming off Africa right now, too.


As expected. June and July are the peak months for SAL. It was very plentiful in 2010, but basically disappeared by August.
Quoting Articuno:
All the SAL is north of the wave

mostly, it could still choke
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It doesnt matter how healthy the waves are if they die within a week of leaving Africa.
We'll see a lot of that this year if the boy sets in.
A Modiki Boy with those waves coming off the coast could be a problem with one or two storms

Are you forgetting it's June? I'm not expecting any of them to develop yet, it's just interesting they're coming off with more spin than usual for this time of the year. Waves don't really "die" when they enter the Atlantic, they just lose their convection and some enter the west Caribbean to cause mischief.
Somebody in here yesterday posted that the EURO model was forecasting a BIG El Nino of over 2 degrees celsius of warming in the pacific. That would make it like the 1997 El Nino as one of the biggest recorded. If anyone has a link or the poster is on now and could provide a link, Id be most appreciative :)
Tropical Storm Debby: Florida Deaths Reported (PHOTOS)

LIVE OAK, Fla. (AP) — Florida officials said Thursday that Tropical Storm Debby was responsible for seven deaths in the state.

State emergency operations spokeswoman Jessica Sims said that two people died in Pinellas County, including a 41-year-old woman caught in a riptide Wednesday at St. Pete Beach.

She was among eight people pulled from rip currents on St. Pete Beach on Wednesday. On Thursday morning, lifeguards on Clearwater Beach helped three people from the water who got caught in a rip current.

Storm-related deaths were also reported in Highlands, Pasco, Polk, Lake and Madison counties. They include a Highlands County woman who died in a tornado spawned by the storm on Sunday, as well as a 71-year-old man who suffered a heart attack and was found dead in flood waters outside his Indian Rocks Beach home in Pinellas County.

In addition, a South Carolina man disappeared Sunday off Alabama's Orange Beach in rough waters churned up by the storm.

Authorities said Wednesday they had suspended a five-day-old search for a 32-year-old Eric Pye of Summerville, S.C., after dozens of searchers using boats and sonar had failed to locate him.

The Orange Beach safety director, Melvin Shephard, told The Associated Press that accounts indicate Pye was wading near the beach's edge Sunday when the backwash of a large wave dragged him into the Gulf of Mexico. Debby was churning up 8- to 10-foot waves there at the time, he added.
Debby hovered in the Gulf of Mexico for days before slowly blowing across northern Florida this week; the storm dumped more than two feet of water in some parts.

On Thursday, Gov. Rick Scott traveled to some of the hardest-hit areas in Florida to survey flood damages. He told officials and some victims that he empathized with them.

"I grew up in the Midwest and the Missouri River used to flood," said Scott, who was raised in Kansas City. "You think about it as you go down and see the families who are devastated when their houses are under water."

Scott noted that the Suwannee River has yet to crest.

"There's more to come," he said.

Suwannee County Sheriff Tony Cameron said he hadn't seen so much flooding in Live Oak and surrounding areas since 1964, when he was 11 and Hurricane Dora flooded the small, north-central Florida community. Then, he helped his grandfather pump water out of the city.

"The problem we have right now is sink holes, that's our number one problem at this time," Cameron said Thursday afternoon. "We've got a lot of roads that are still under water. There are probably 300 cars scattered around the county sitting under water."

More than 150 people remained in shelters in Suwannee and Pasco counties on Thursday.



Associated Press writer Tamara Lush in St. Petersburg contributed to this report.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
I have a question.
Why are clouds white?
It might be a simple question, but a specific, detailed answer would be nice. Then I'll be able to understand it right.
(Well, I don't know if this is related, but I know how a cloud is made.)


Clouds are white because they are made of snow.
The darker the cloud the more likely that there are enough water drops in there to start falling out.
The models they show on the ENSO sites are all under 2 degrees warming.
Quoting MTWX:


Isn't it the competely wrong time fo the year for this??!??

Link

(Just off the NE coast of Australia)

Actually, if you are talking about that spin south of Oz, it is coming from the south west, thats why we call it the roaring 40's. I know you think we are upside down LOL. these spinners happen all year round some of them cause alot of damage wind wise.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Somebody in here yesterday posted that the EURO model was forecasting a BIG El Nino of over 2 degrees celsius of warming in the pacific. That would make it like the 1997 El Nino as one of the biggest recorded. If anyone has a link or the poster is on now and could provide a link, Id be most appreciative :)


Moderate El Nino is what Euro is forecasting to start by August.

The consensus for this hurricane season is a weak El Nino.

Note: Yes, this image is a bit outdated. However, the forecast is still straight on with the amount of warming we've seen.

Modki is Japanese
Quoting weatherh98:


Just say el niño. Some people didn't learn Spanish in high school.

You are adamant about wave deaths lol

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The consensus for this hurricane season is a weak El Nino.



Thanks for that! I have been following it a bit as it effects us in Soo Cal quite a bit and saw that post of over 2c warming and I hadnt seen any model with numbers like that! Thanks again!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
The models they show on the ENSO sites are all under 2 degrees warming.


That is correct. None forecast a strong El Nino.

Quoting LeMoyne:


Clouds are white because they are made of snow.
The darker the cloud the more likely that there are enough water drops in there to start falling out.


What lol now clouds aren't made of snow. Unless they are dropping snow.


In much the same way as why skies are blue, clouds are white because their water droplets or ice crystals are large enough to scatter the light of the seven wavelengths (red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo, and violet), which combine to produce white light. Clouds will appear dark or gray when either they are in another clouds shadow or the top of a cloud casts a shadow upon its own base.
Quoting fireflymom:
Modki is Japanese



He said "the boy" instead of el niño lol
Quoting fireflymom:
Modki is Japanese


and el nino is spanish
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
water temp keep getting warmer look at the red now!!


In the pink around here...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The consensus for this hurricane season is a weak El Nino.



Looks like next hurricane season will be similar to 2005 el niño wise.

This is a LONG way out I really don't know just making observations
Current 2m temperatures across the USA:

Quoting LeMoyne:


Clouds are white because they are made of snow.
The darker the cloud the more likely that there are enough water drops in there to start falling out.
for starters, try to avoid answering a question when you're just making things up.. and 2nd.. see #435. Zappy 1:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2012 for the actual answer to the question.
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
i am starting to see more t.storms with this tropical low!!

Where is that at>
Ways to watch Debby:

Bermuda Weather Service imagery page which has Bermuda centered GOES views

Bermuda Weathercam:



Other local Doppler radar views and current surface readings at three AWOS stations through http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp



Debby is reorganizing again (as always?) and is about to wander in front of a train called the Jet Stream Express. You can watch her organize now or watch her (almost certainly) disappear later.

Pasadena MD:

Temperature
96.9 °F
Feels Like 110 °F

Humidity: 50%


Yikes. Nasty out, going to the pool soon
Quoting Minnemike:
for starters, try to avoid answering a question when you're just making things up.. and 2nd.. see #435. Zappy 1:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2012 for the actual answer to the question.


Or mine I looked it up lol

#523

Edit: it's the same thing copied from the same website
Quoting kwgirl:
Thank you for that link. Very interesting and horrifying. I never knew that the forward speed of the hurricane can increase the tidal surge until Wilma. Unfortunately, I was so hurricane weary that year, I did not listen to any forecasts. The surge took me and a lot of people in Key West by surprise. It happened after the storm was past us. I think it was the slosh of a release of water after the eye had hit mainland Florida, since it came from the bay.


You're welcome and I agree it is horrifying! Am I remembering correctly that you lost everything? I hope you were able to get to your water aerobics for your knee!
... Record low temperature set at Daytona Beach...

a record low temperature of 63 degrees was set at Daytona Beach
this morning. This breaks the old record of 67 degrees set in 1950.
Heat wave: 1,000+ records fall in US in a week
JANET McCONNAUGHEY, Associated Press, ROXANA HEGEMAN, Associated Press, SETH BORENSTEIN, Associated Press


Feeling hot? It's not a mirage. Across the United States, hundreds of heat records have fallen in the past week.

From the wildfire-consumed Rocky Mountains to the bacon-fried sidewalks of Oklahoma, the temperatures are creating consequences ranging from catastrophic to comical.

In the past week, 1,011 records have been broken around the country, including 251 new daily high temperature records on Tuesday.

Those numbers might seem big, but they're hard to put into context — the National Climatic Data Center has only been tracking the daily numbers broken for a little more than a year, said Derek Arndt, head of climate monitoring at the center.

Still, it's impressive, given that records usually aren't broken until the scorching months of July and August.

"Any time you're breaking all-time records in mid- to late-June, that's a healthy heat wave," Arndt said.

If forecasts hold, more records could fall in the coming days in the central and western parts of the country, places accustomed to sweating out the summer.

The current U.S. heat wave "is bad now by our current definition of bad," said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, but "our definition of bad changes. What we see now will be far more common in the years ahead."

No matter where you are, the objective is the same: stay cool.

___

NIGHTTIME FIREFIGHTING

Wildfires pack intense heat, but soaring temperatures and whipping winds are piling on the men and women battling the blazes raging across the Rocky Mountains.

U.S. Forest Service firefighter Owen Johnson had to work overnight and avoided the piping-hot daytime temperatures in the region, which toppled records in Colorado, Wyoming and Montana. On Tuesday, Colorado Springs reached 101 degrees, and Miles City in eastern Montana soared to 111 degrees, the highest ever recorded in that area.

A call came in after Johnson's regular shift Monday in the Helena National Forest in Montana. A wildfire was racing through the Scratchgravel Hills, threatening at least 200 homes. But firefighters had to wait to pose a direct attack until midnight, when the temperatures cooled and the wind died down.

On Tuesday morning, Johnson figured he had worked more than 24 hours, and probably wouldn't quit until the sun went down.

His sweaty hands gripping a banana and a cup of coffee, he gave a tired shrug when asked to compare this fire to others in his 13-year career.

"Every fire's different," he said. "They all pose their own risks and challenges."

___

PRAYING FOR RAIN

On the treeless, windswept Kansas prairie, the searing mix of sun and triple-digit heat is a recipe for agricultural disaster.

Some residents have taken to praying for rain and cooler temperatures in this sparsely populated western part of the state. Menlo farmer Brian Baalman can testify to that.

"Everybody is just sick of it. They just wish we would get a good rain," he said. "It has become a point to pray for it at church on Sunday, for sure."

Temperatures in the area have hovered around 111 degrees or higher for the past four days, and nine cities in western Kansas broke records on Tuesday.

Only in the earliest morning hours do hardy farmers dart out to ensure their livestock's water troughs are filled and their irrigation wells are quenching parched crops. They quickly return to cooler locales.

Much of the fortunes in the Menlo area are tied to corn crops, whose yields contribute not only to foodstuffs but also to ethanol-blended gasoline. But day after unyielding day of blazing sun and high heat have baked the top six inches of soil, and plant roots can break through to the moister soil below.

"It is getting to look ugly, the longer this keeps going on without a drink," Baalman said.

___

CARRIAGE-FREE FRENCH QUARTER

It was 10:30 a.m., prime time for mule-drawn carriages to cart tourists through New Orleans' historic French Quarter.

But nary a carriage rumbled down the streets — where it was already 97 degrees — because of a city ordinance.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not from today.
Quoting MTWX:


That map is nowhere near where it is located...

That's an archived image from last year...
Quoting yqt1001:


From last year, this new 21P is only expected to reach 40kts. Though it's still amazingly rare, 3 months after the season ended. In the ATL that is a Febuary storm!

Oops, sorry... Here's the real one.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current 2m temperatures across the USA:



It hasn't quite hit 100 yet here in Central VA, but we are pretty darn close with a temp of 98.5, with the heat index being 107! That blows my mind...

Temps to our south have already hit triple digit. Petersburg (just 30 miles south of here) is already at 104!
Midlothian (2 Miles SSE), Midlothian
Scattered Clouds
98.7 °F
Feels Like 107 °F
Dew Point 71 °F

Ewww....
Quoting tropicfreak:
Midlothian (2 Miles SSE), Midlothian
Scattered Clouds
98.7 °F
Feels Like 107 °F
Dew Point 71 °F

Ewww....

I am going to the pool in about an hour
Quoting Patrap:


Tell that thing to come this way
It is insanely hot outside. Could reach up to 108 in my current location. What is worse is its going to get even hotter tomorrow. Currently 95 and rising. The worse part about this is the stillness. No wind at all.

That temp reading was taken at 11. Its much hotter now just hitting 100.
It kind of looks as though Debby isn't a Downer yet... I wonder if she will indeed be re-classified?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The consensus for this hurricane season is a weak El Nino.

Note: Yes, this image is a bit outdated. However, the forecast is still straight on with the amount of warming we've seen.



The chart you are looking at is nearly 2 months old, as you said. However, it is not really that accurate. According to that chart, we should be at 0.1C when in reality we were at 0.4C on the update. In real time, we are most likely at the 0.5C threshold. The only model that has been aggressive enough with current trends is the Euro. It may end up being too aggressive since it takes us to borderline strong conditions. I've been banking on moderate strength.




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Colorado Wildfires


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Quoting Patrap:


LARGE Low Cloud Image, ESL by LSU

I can't believe what I've been hoping and praying for is actually coming true for once. Even so, Centex doesn't look to see much rain out of the storm, but even an inch would be a luxury now.Shoot, cloud cover would be a luxury.
Quoting Patrap:


Hey I live in Pearland TX and there is an interesting thing in the GOM. Any clues?
Convection, showers and thunderstorms increasing in the western gulf just off the
coast of Texas.

Link

Surface winds are gusting to 30 knots.

Link


Shear is around 20 knots
Link

With a strong ridge in place, this area of disturbed weather should head towards Texas and possibly
Louisiana.
The GOM area isnt a Tropical threat.


Not even a circle from the NHC


THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF 87W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A 23N93W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
25N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 97W AND 98W...WITH
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 23N93W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
Any chance that the blob in the Western Gulf spins up into anything?
Hello, Gro.
I thought you were gone somewhere?
556. etxwx
Quoting Patrap:
The GOM area isnt a Tropical threat.




Thanks Patrap. Non-tropical is just fine with us...something with a little rain and some cooler temps would be nice. The wind part can stay far far away.
557. N3EG
And once again, cool weather in the Pacific Northwest for the third year in a row.
Man it has been a long time since I posted on here... just been lurking so far this year. We could use some clouds and rain here in Texas.. just saying
I don't know if that wave over the Atlantic has chances of developing into something, but looking at the strenght and setup of the High over the atlantic I feel a bit uneasy if it does develop. Looks like whatever forms this year has a huge chance of US landfall unless the high changes pattern or weaken like it did last year and the year before. Not much chance of fish storms this year under the current scenario.



They system will be entering a high shear area near the Caribbean.

However, when there is a strong high over the US, quite often the pressure drop in the Gulf and the Caribbean. While development chances are low for the development of either, it is still good to watch the Gulf Area.

Quoting pottery:
Hello, Gro.
I thought you were gone somewhere?


I am somewhere else. I only drop in more a few minutes at a time. We have to go to dinner, but I will try and be on later. They aren't as much fun as you people are, either.
So, um, where can I pick up my plate of grilled crow and a glass of ice-cold global warming kool-aid??

When it's above 100 after dark in Arkansas in June, I'm starting to think Al Gore was right!!

:)
Quoting Grothar:


I am somewhere else. I only drop in more a few minutes at a time. We have to go to dinner, but I will try and be on later. They aren't as much fun as you people are, either.

Spike the punch......
that ought to do something or the other!

In any case, have fun.
Quoting Minnemike:
for starters, try to avoid answering a question when you're just making things up.. and 2nd.. see #435. Zappy 1:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2012 for the actual answer to the question.


LOL - not making it up. Most clouds are up high enough that water IS frozen. So, they are made of snow (ice crystals).

Here in NM we see are pretty puffy white cumulus - usually is over 10,000 ft MSL or 5,000 ft up. Sometime they have grey bottoms and sometimes they actually drop a curtain of precipitation that is grey (shadowed or not) - almost certainly hail falling out of the cloud. I am sure that all of our rain in the mountain west starts as hail except in fall/spring when we get low clouds made from evaporation of the last rain/snow. The white creamy looking stuff that is pouring out the top of a TC sure ain't liquid water.


The Bermuda webcam
tells a different story: blue sky behind low solid grey clouds that are almost certainly made of fat juicy water drops at a few hundred feet altitude where the temp is warm.

I don't think that it is quite true that the sky is blue in the same way that clouds are white. Cloud color is dependent on both the state of the water and the size of the water 'particles'.

The sky is blue because the refraction of light by the atmosphere goes down with the fourth power of the wavelength so blue is scattered and appears to come from everywhere. Same effect (Rayleigh scattering) makes sunsets red (everything else scattered away in the longer path throgh the sky). The particles in the clear blue sky are ~all in the micron size range or smaller.

Clouds are grey or white.
Why aren't clouds or fog multi-colored or rainbow hued in any way?
That question tells me that state is crucial: clean ice can reflect off its surface at any size while reflection, retransmission and scattering by water drops is dependent on size and there is always a mix of sizes -- hence greyness. Significant hail in the cloud/sky is grey because it is rugged (lower reflectivity = absorbs more) and hail is much larger than water vapor, water drops and the ice particles it is made from so it absorbs and scatters every wavelength very well and white light is shifted to lower intensity on the grey scale.

To be sure the particle size effect in scattering is important in how white or grey a fog made of liquid water appears. The bright white of clouds tells me that reflectivity (surface, particle effect) dominates over scattering (bulk, wave effect). So, call me crazy if you will but I am still convinced that white = snow (ice crystals) and grey = water or hail (ice lumps) when it comes to cloud color (excepting self-shaded cloud bottoms of course).
Nice blob.
Strange weather here in N. Georgia. We had a low near 60 this morning and the high is now 99 here in calhoun. No humidity,rapid rising temperatures and massive differences between morning and evewning temps. It will be near a 45 degree difference today. This is virtually unheard of here in the South. Desert temps in a sub-tropical region...lol
Thank you Patrap. Hopefully we get some rain here.
Quoting Grothar:
It looks better than yesterday maybe a 20% seems reasonable.
To tell you how strange it is(how strange is it?) We could reach 105 degrees today without a heat watch of any kind. The humidity is so low......wow
Is Debby going to pull a Chris?

And then from somewhere below
Quoting Grothar:


I am somewhere else. I only drop in more a few minutes at a time. We have to go to dinner, but I will try and be on later. They aren't as much fun as you people are, either.
I absolutely hated visiting my ex-hubby's family in Ohio... So boring, but I guess that is what I was supposed to do. No more
Quoting oracle28:
So, um, where can I pick up my plate of grilled crow and a glass of ice-cold global warming kool-aid??

When it's above 100 after dark in Arkansas in June, I'm starting to think Al Gore was right!!

:)

Yeah, that's pretty incredible.
But believing in Al Gore will mean that you have to accept that we are creating a large part of the problem.

Easier to deny the entire thing, and buy more AC units.

:):))
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is Debby going to pull a Chris?


No.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is Debby going to pull a Chris?

It looks like.
Well, the Atlantic may not be too active in July, but the East Pacific sure should be with these kind of pressure falls forecast.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, the Atlantic may not be too active in July, but the East Pacific sure should be with these kind of pressure falls forecast.



That's quite a few storms too!
Debby wreaked havok in parts of Florida.... The little city of Live Oak was totally flooded downtown. A friend of mine has property there. He said that the downtown area is like a cereal bowl. Everything flows to the lowest part, which is the center of town. Bad engineering for a place to make a city , I guess. If I mis-spelled havok, please forgive me.
Current 2m temperatures as of 17:15 UTC:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current 2m temperatures as of 17:15 UTC:



That's about right here
I just heard this on my local NWS radio:

Heat is the #1 weather-related killer.


I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Gulf blob will become a TD just as it comes ashore or even just after it does AKA TS Allison (2001). Very little stays out in the western GOM this time of year more than three days and doesn't develop, and I think I see a cyclonic rotation in the rain bands.
Quoting Fraidycat:
I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Gulf blob will become a TD just as it comes ashore or even just after it does AKA TS Allison (2001). Very little stays out in the western GOM this time of year more than three days and doesn't develop, and I think I see a cyclonic rotation in the rain bands.


I see some anticyclonic flow around that whole area. But nt really anything cyclonic
Absolutely 0 vorticity at any level from the GOM blob. @584
Quoting LeMoyne:


Clouds are white because they are made of snow.
The darker the cloud the more likely that there are enough water drops in there to start falling out.
I say that as well. If the clouds aren't dark enough they will not rain. However, the true reason we see color in anything is light refraction.:)
I made an estimate of numbers of TS-Hurricanes-M.Hurricanes, in the years were El NINO was weak, and the average was

12 Tropical strom
7.2 Hurricanes
3 Major Huricanes

But, when el nino is in modiki status,
1969---- 18 tropical strom
12 hurricanes
5 major hurricane

2004------15 tropical storm
9 hurricanes
6 M.hurricanes

In Assam, Northern India...
up to 50 people have died and a MILLION people are homeless due to exceptional rains this week.
Quoting kwgirl:
I say that as well. If the clouds aren't dark enough they will not rain. However, the true reason we see color in anything is light refraction.:)


reflection*** as opposed to refraction, the bending of light through a medium
Quoting icmoore:


You're welcome and I agree it is horrifying! Am I remembering correctly that you lost everything? I hope you were able to get to your water aerobics for your knee!
Yes, I did finally get into the pool. And it really is to strengthen my back muscles. The knee was/is broken so I just need to let the bone heal. While sitting around doing nothing at my age, you really lose a lot of strength quickly.
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Absolutely 0 vorticity at any level from the GOM blob. @584
just some rain for my friends in texas
Quoting Fraidycat:
I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Gulf blob will become a TD just as it comes ashore or even just after it does AKA TS Allison (2001). Very little stays out in the western GOM this time of year more than three days and doesn't develop, and I think I see a cyclonic rotation in the rain bands.

There is no rotation associated with the blob in the Gulf. What you are seeing is anticyclonic rotation associated with the upper level anticyclone across the west Gulf and Bay of Campeche.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Friday 29 June 2012
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 29.72 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 88.2°F
Dewpoint: 56.5°F
Humidity: 34 %
Wind: W 22 mph
Humidex: 96
Ex-Debby barely clinging to the front at the 200 mb level, but completely separate down to the surface. With the well-defined circulation it has maintained and the convection built since yesterday, I think regeneration is a near-certainty, whether the NHC calls it or not.
its turning the wrong way
Like I say it was up to 20%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF DEBBY...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS MINIMAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS TODAY...
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
If there were a low associated with the blob in the WGOM, it could blow up quickly due to all the right ingredients. At this time there is no associated low. Hopefully this will bring cooler temps and showers to Texas.
Quoting FutureWx6221:


reflection*** as opposed to refraction, the bending of light through a medium


No it's refraction

Refraction is the change in direction of a wave due to a change in its speed
I suspect the tradition of Bluefield, WV/VA to hand out free lemonade each day the temperature exceeds 90 will soon be a casualty of global warming. The tradition began in 1939 to highlight the region's mild climate. Most years, the temperature never reached 90, and when it did, it was usually only a day or two. Recent years, it's reached 90+ ten or more days, including the record of 18 in 2007. The forecast for Bluefield calls for temperatures at or above 90 through Independence Day, with temperatures today and tomorrow approaching the all-time record high of 96.

Here is an article about the tradition in today's Charleston Daily Mail:

http://www.dailymail.com/News/statenews/201206290 074
As stated, the wave is up to 20% chance of formation.

wow up to 20% now!!!!!
Doksuri is making landfall now to the north of Hainan island with winds of 40-50 mph. Missed Hong Kong well to the south due to a center relocation from the persistent shear. More at http://weather.schematical.com/

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As stated, the wave is up to 20% chance of formation.



Wait is today Ur birthday?
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
855 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

TXZ230>234-240>247-292200-
MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-
NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALLIHAM...CROSS...LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...
GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...
FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...
KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...
ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...WOOD SBORO...
PORT LAVACA
855 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTH TEXAS...

A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED...AND
USUALLY DO NOT TOUCH THE GROUND.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION OF
FUNNEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF YOU SEE A FUNNEL
CLOUD...MOVE AWAY FROM THE FUNNEL...GO INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS IN CASE THE FUNNEL BRIEFLY TOUCHES THE GROUND.

$$

GW
BoC disturbance has become too heavily elongated along the ridge, and the anticyclone has gotten too far away from it now.

Still, I think it should bring at least some good rains to Texas, as the convection is holding together pretty well right now...
Quoting weatherh98:


No it's refraction

Refraction is the change in direction of a wave due to a change in its speed


Regardless of how you define refraction, the reflective/subtractive color process is what is responsible for certain things having color. Also, the only way for light to slow down or speed up is if it enters another medium with a different index of refraction (speed of light/speed of light in medium).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As stated, the wave is up to 20% chance of formation.


Not surprised!
But what is the shear like, in front of it?
Quoting Bobbyweather:
I have a question.
Why are clouds white?
It might be a simple question, but a specific, detailed answer would be nice. Then I'll be able to understand it right.
(Well, I don't know if this is related, but I know how a cloud is made.)


And why is the sky blue?

You can do a interesting experiment if you smoke a cigaret. Inhale, exhale immediately and your smoke is blue. Inhale, keep your breath for a while and exhale and your smoke turned white. (more or less)

It's got something to do with the size of the tiny parts floating in the air. When they are very ,very small, they reflect blue, or absorb the other colours, when they are bigger, like watervapor, they reflect all colours and look white.
Quoting lostinohio:
To tell you how strange it is(how strange is it?) We could reach 105 degrees today without a heat watch of any kind. The humidity is so low......wow
..you DO have a heat warning in OHIO................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1137 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-
051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088-300000-
/O.UPG.KILN.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120630T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KILN.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120630T0000Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBEL L-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-ME RCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-CLER MONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...
CARROLLTON...WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE.. .ALEXANDRIA...
OWENTON...WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...BROOKSVILLE.. .MOUNT OLIVET...
MAYSVILLE...VANCEBURG...KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKON ETA...
GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE. ..DELAWARE...
PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS. ..NEWARK...
EATON...XENIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...
LANCASTER...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CHI LLICOTHE...
LOGAN...MILFORD...GEORGETOWN...HILLSBORO...WEST UNION...PIKETON...
PORTSMOUTH
1137 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND MUCH OF
OHIO.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 109.

* TIMING...THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...HEAT STROKE...HEAT EXHAUSTION AND OTHER HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF YOU SPEND A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME OUTDOORS...OR ARE INVOLVED IN ANY
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 911.

&&

$$
Quoting LargoFl:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
855 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

TXZ230>234-240>247-292200-
MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-
NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALLIHAM...CROSS...LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...
GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...
FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...
KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...
ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...WOOD SBORO...
PORT LAVACA
855 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTH TEXAS...

A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED...AND
USUALLY DO NOT TOUCH THE GROUND.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION OF
FUNNEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF YOU SEE A FUNNEL
CLOUD...MOVE AWAY FROM THE FUNNEL...GO INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS IN CASE THE FUNNEL BRIEFLY TOUCHES THE GROUND.

$$

GW


Remember folks; move away from the funnel :)
Quoting Kratje:


And why is the sky blue?

You can do a interesting experiment if you smoke a cigaret. Inhale, exhale immediately and your smoke is blue. Inhale, keep your breath for a while and exhale and your smoke turned white. (more or less)

It's got something to do with the size of the tiny parts floating in the air. When they are very ,very small, they reflect blue, or absorb the other colours, when they are bigger, like watervapor, they reflect all colours and look white.
Clouds are white because they reflect the light of the sun...When you add all of the colors of the rainbow together it is white.
Washingtonian and WxGeek, and anyone else in the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley- get ready to storm chase tonight and tomorrow. Looks like we have a chance of wind and hail at least, limited chance of tornadoes. Be careful out there! Maybe the storms will cool the air a little- it's 105 here in eastern WV.
Quoting LargoFl:
its funny about texas, when the rain showers do come..they always go to the same area seems like
Thats when it all starts
Quoting LargoFl:
its funny about texas, when the rain showers do come..they always go to the same area seems like


Yup, right on either side of us. Just close enough that we can hear the thunder. ;-)
Nice
I think Texas is gonna get slammed this year!
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
Thats when it all starts
When what starts FtMyers?
Does anyone see that flareup in the atlantis. Could this be an early African way Storm comming to Florida?
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
I think Texas is gonna get slammed this year!
FtMyers......Why do you say that? Do you have some secret evidence that I do not know? Please tell us
Atlanta = 100F !!!!
Code Red air quality
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
If there were a low associated with the blob in the WGOM, it could blow up quickly due to all the right ingredients. At this time there is no associated low. Hopefully this will bring cooler temps and showers to Texas.


And Louisiana
GFS still kills everything...for the entire run...

Canadian shows a 1008mb low in the SW Caribbean near the end of the model run, plus another tropical wave on top of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico (can't see the pressure isobar rating).

Looks like the 1008mb low(possible depression) crosses Central America, at least on the model run, near Nicaragua and Honduras.
Good afternoon all........How is everyone doing today?
Quoting chasinhurricanes:
Good afternoon all........How is everyone doing today?
chasin...Welcome aboard
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Atlanta = 100F !!!!
Code Red air quality
Lol I am in north Athens right now and its 103. We could get all the way to 108. Atlanta is going to get even hotter tomorrow.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol I am in north Athens right now and its 103. We could get all the way to 108. Atlanta is going to get even hotter tomorrow.
That has to be totally miserable with the Georgia humidity.
Hey RTS! How's it today? I just stepped outside with a popscicle and nearly drown! Hahaha
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Gale Warnings

A low [996 hPa] was located near 12.4S 155.2E and is moving to the south southeast at 4 knots.

Expect northeast to southeast winds 34-40 knots

forecast position
===================
12 HRS: 12.8S 155.4E
24 HRS: 13.5S 155.8E

Nobody cares about Invest 97L? Y'all are going to make it cry...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206291811
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2012, DB, O, 2012062918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972012
AL, 97, 2012062818, , BEST, 0, 115N, 419W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062900, , BEST, 0, 115N, 432W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062906, , BEST, 0, 116N, 445W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062912, , BEST, 0, 116N, 458W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 45, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062918, , BEST, 0, 117N, 471W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting chasinhurricanes:
Good afternoon all........How is everyone doing today?


Newbie!
Fantastic! And you?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nobody cares about Invest 97L? Y'all are going to make it cry...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206291811
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2012, DB, O, 2012062918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972012
AL, 97, 2012062818, , BEST, 0, 115N, 419W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062900, , BEST, 0, 115N, 432W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062906, , BEST, 0, 116N, 445W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062912, , BEST, 0, 116N, 458W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 45, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062918, , BEST, 0, 117N, 471W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


Waaaaahhhhh

Is today ur bday?
Quoting weatherh98:


Waaaaahhhhh

Is today ur bday?

Lol, no?
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Hey RTS! How's it today? I just stepped outside with a popscicle and nearly drown! Hahaha


Pretty good today. It's not as hot as the past few days. I think we failed to break the record today, so that's good news.

ha.
Interesting...all I had to do was book hotel in Key West for next weekend and here it comes...Hopefully whatever this becomes (if anything)  stays south.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, no?


Oh thought it was! When is it?
Quoting RTSplayer:


Pretty good today. It's not as hot as the past few days. I think we failed to break the record today, so that's good news.

ha.


Yea I hear ya......... :)
SHIP makes 97L a moderate Tropical Storm.

WHXX01 KWBC 291813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUN 29 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972012) 20120629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120629 1800 120630 0600 120630 1800 120701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.3W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.3W
BAMD 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.5W 12.3N 52.1W 12.7N 54.9W
BAMM 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.4W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.1W
LBAR 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.7W 12.3N 52.8W 12.8N 56.1W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120701 1800 120702 1800 120703 1800 120704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 58.9W 14.2N 66.5W 16.4N 74.7W 18.4N 82.0W
BAMD 13.3N 57.8W 14.5N 63.2W 15.9N 68.1W 17.8N 72.3W
BAMM 12.8N 58.3W 13.9N 64.8W 15.6N 71.2W 17.7N 77.2W
LBAR 13.1N 59.5W 13.3N 65.6W 14.2N 71.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 44.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 41.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Quoting weatherh98:


Oh thought it was! When is it?

July 22.
We have 97l now??????????
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SHIP makes 97L a moderate Tropical Storm.

WHXX01 KWBC 291813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUN 29 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972012) 20120629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120629 1800 120630 0600 120630 1800 120701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.3W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.3W
BAMD 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.5W 12.3N 52.1W 12.7N 54.9W
BAMM 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.4W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.1W
LBAR 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.7W 12.3N 52.8W 12.8N 56.1W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120701 1800 120702 1800 120703 1800 120704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 58.9W 14.2N 66.5W 16.4N 74.7W 18.4N 82.0W
BAMD 13.3N 57.8W 14.5N 63.2W 15.9N 68.1W 17.8N 72.3W
BAMM 12.8N 58.3W 13.9N 64.8W 15.6N 71.2W 17.7N 77.2W
LBAR 13.1N 59.5W 13.3N 65.6W 14.2N 71.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 44.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 41.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
That has to be totally miserable with the Georgia humidity.
We are lucky humidity is not to much of a factor this time. Last year we had a heat wave in the low 100's up 90's with high humidity which was almost unbearable. I was in Statesbro playing golf :D.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

July 22.

Way off
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol I am in north Athens right now and its 103. We could get all the way to 108. Atlanta is going to get even hotter tomorrow.


101-102 at my house.
Doesnt feel that hot if the sun is not on you though because there is no humidity.

Last night the NWS raised the forecast highs 4 degrees at my house to 104 and i think it was a good move.
Surprisingly, Inaccuweather already forecasted 105 but their hypes was expected.
My only surprise is they didnt put 110.

Rome is supposed to be the hot spot
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
We are lucky humidity is not to much of a factor this time. Last year we had a heat wave in the low 100's up 90's with high humidity which was almost unbearable. I was in Statesbro playing golf :D.
I spent a few days in Madison Ga a few years ago........Such a beautiful city, but so so hot, Lake Oconee is a dream
Quoting aislinnpaps:


And Louisiana


Can't forget our good neighbors :)
StL hitting 100, supposed to get to 108 for 2nd day in a row, not fun in all those brick homes. Out here to its NE, we just hit 100 heat index, much higher dew point today, as expected. Wish we could get those storms to drop from north, but none in forecast so I guess we'll just bake. Hate to think what humidity will be this weekend as the high moves further east and taps the gulf even more. Stay cool! Edit - now 102 in Lou!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


101-102 at my house.
Doesnt feel that hot if the sun is not on you though because there is no humidity.

Last night the NWS raised the forecast highs 4 degrees at my house to 104 and i think it was a good move.
Surprisingly, Inaccuweather already forecasted 105 but their hypes was expected.
My only surprise is they didnt put 110.

Rome is supposed to be the hot spot
I am surprised they don't have heat advisory's out.
I knew this at least would be an invest.
STRONG 597 DM HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE OPPRESSIVE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS LOCALLY. TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE FAIRLY
TRICKY TODAY AS GUIDANCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
THE QUESTION BECOMES IS GUIDANCE BETTER HANDLING THE EVENT OR DO
WE HAVE HISTORIC HEAT IN THE OFFING FOR THE AREA. LOOKING UPSTREAM
YESTERDAY...VALUES WERE 103 TO 105...BUT NOT THE 107 AND 108
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FOR OUR AREA TODAY. LOOKED AT THE CIPS ANALOG
CASES FOR THIS EVENT AND FOR THE TOP 15 ANALOGS WE ARE SHOWING A
NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF SITES SEEING THE CENTURY MARK TODAY. IT
IS ALSO SHOWING A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 105 OR GREATER FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ANOMALIES IN PLACE FOR
925MB TEMPERATURE WHICH IS MAXED OUT OVER NORTH GEORGIA...FEEL WE
COULD INDEED BREAK SOME LONG STANDING RECORDS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...GIVEN VALUES SEEN UPSTREAM LEADING
UP TO THIS EVENT...NOT READY TO BITE OFF ON THE 104 TO 108 VALUES
GIVEN BY GUIDANCE. WILL INSTEAD INDICATE 101 FOR ATL (TIES RECORD)
AND 102 TO 104 ELSEWHERE.


guidance is what accuweather used without a thought, but we will see how hot it gets
Hello. I haven't been on since the weekend. Does the GFS still have Debby hitting Florida instead of a TX landfall. Oh that crazy GFS. The NHC needs to do something about it. ;-) JK.

Just trying to take everyone's mind off the heat...
Did you know that:

today is the first June day to officially hit 100 degrees in Atlanta since 1954. Wow! The record for today is 101 and for all of June is 102.

Charlotte, NC is down to 100 this hour, but has gotten as high as 103 today, tying the June record set June 27, 1954. has opened a cooling station in uptown to help people get relief from the heat

Nashville, TN has jumped 5 degrees in the past hour to 103 as of 1pm CDT. June record is 106 and looks to be in jeopardy. Nearby Smyrna, TN is an amazing 108 degrees.

Washington, DC has officially tied its all-time June record high of 102 degrees at Reagan National. Still climbing.


Columbia, SC
has tied its all-time record of 107 degrees set six previous times, most recently on August 10, 2007. That means it's now a seven-way tie for the all-time record in Columbia, but it's only 2pm EDT and it may get even hotter today!

That 108 is also the June record for Bowling Green, KY; the all-time record there is 113 set July 28, 1930. Again, currently 106 in Bowling Green, KY.


At this hour:


Digging around for the current hot spots by state - we're finding 106 in Washington, GA and 104 in Muscle Shoals, AL.

Columbia is leading South Carolina with that 107, followed by Aiken at 106;
In North Carolina, Southern Pines appears to be leading the pack at 104 degrees this hour;
In Virginia, a sweltering 108 at Petersburg is the leading temperature;
while Maryland has a trio of 100-degree readings at BWI Airport near Baltimore; Frederick; and St. Inigoes.
Farther west, we have Smyrna, TN at 108 and;
Bowling Green, KY at 106
Missouri has a three-way tie with 102 in St. Louis, Cape Girardeau, and Poplar Bluff.
In Illinois, Cairo (at the state's southern tip) is sizzling at 106 degrees right now.
The blog will blow up within the hour :) SHIPS wants a 55kt TS in 3 days and a near-TS by this time tomorrow!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I spent a few days in Madison Ga a few years ago........Such a beautiful city, but so so hot, Lake Oconee is a dream
Yah the heat in GA gets really bad. Its the humidity that really gets you.
97L come to me in S FL!!:) lol
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SHIP makes 97L a moderate Tropical Storm.

WHXX01 KWBC 291813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUN 29 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972012) 20120629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120629 1800 120630 0600 120630 1800 120701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.3W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.3W
BAMD 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.5W 12.3N 52.1W 12.7N 54.9W
BAMM 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.4W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.1W
LBAR 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.7W 12.3N 52.8W 12.8N 56.1W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120701 1800 120702 1800 120703 1800 120704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 58.9W 14.2N 66.5W 16.4N 74.7W 18.4N 82.0W
BAMD 13.3N 57.8W 14.5N 63.2W 15.9N 68.1W 17.8N 72.3W
BAMM 12.8N 58.3W 13.9N 64.8W 15.6N 71.2W 17.7N 77.2W
LBAR 13.1N 59.5W 13.3N 65.6W 14.2N 71.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 44.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 41.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


So BAMS puts the storm by the Cayman Islands, BAMM puts it near Jamaica, and BAMD puts it on the southern coast of Haiti. And LBAR nukes it from orbit.

Of some note is that SHIPS doesn't develop it until it is near the islands.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yah the heat in GA gets really bad. Its the humidity that really gets you.
I have lived in south Florida for 28 years, but I have never been as hot as the time I have spent in Georgia... Must be our sea breeze.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97L come to me in S FL!!:) lol

Be careful what you wish for.
Anythign up with the fast growing blob in the Gulf?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


the main thing is.

what do the euro and GFS do with it?

and

When will Levi do a blog
It's 81 today in central Wisconsin, been over 90 last three days, and will be for at least the next week. Dew point below fifty and low humidity. Living the dream, this is some seriously dangerous heat for most the rest of ya. Wave and blob are dancing nicely for us today. Whole blob making Texas landfall, or will a portion of it break off and remain where we saw it last night?
Quoting turtlehurricane:
Doksuri is making landfall now to the north of Hainan island with winds of 40-50 mph. Missed Hong Kong well to the south due to a center relocation from the persistent shear.


It's actually making landfall just south of Hong Kong, IR imagery is deceiving with this storm (and has been most of its life). A recent ASCAT pass clearly shows the center near landfall just south of HK.
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
Anythign up with the fast growing blob in the Gulf?


just some rain atm
Champagne! 97L is here IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HEADING TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97L come to me in S FL!!:) lol
Why would you wish that SFL? Please explain?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I am surprised they don't have heat advisory's out.


heat index 105 and lows at night below 75.
doesnt qualify.

If humidity were up, we would definitely have one ,just look at statesboro, high of 104, might get an excessive heat warning for heat indexes of 114-118.

Tomorrow, sunday, and monday are candidates, sunday night low is 75 i believe, and humidity is increasing enough that we may see popip tstorms by monday

Currently, humidity is AOA 25%
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well 97L for sure has a lot of warm water waiting for it. I am guessing the main problem for 97L will be wind shear maybe dry air. If wind shear turns out to be low than I don't really see what will stop her.
If we get an ORANGE circle at the 8PM TWO the blog will explode
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


heat index 105 and lows at night below 75.
doesnt qualify.

If humidity were up, we would definitely have one ,just look at statesboro, high of 104, might get an excessive heat warning for heat indexes of 114-118.

Tomorrow, sunday, and monday are candidates, sunday night low is 75 i believe, and humidity is increasing enough that we may see popip tstorms by monday

Currently, humidity is AOA 25%

Heat advisories go up with heat indices of 108+.

Somewhat intrigued as I go on Vacation in like 30 minutes. and next week heading to Galveston for the week Any developement needs to hold just 1 week.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh my gush and none are near me I want a little bit of rain at least.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97L come to me in S FL!!:) lol


And so begins the florida casting


i dont believe it
dumb numerical models
Quoting CaribBoy:
If we get an ORANGE circle at the 8PM TWO the blog will explode

That is very unlikely to happen, since prime formation time looks to be more than 48 hours out at that point.
I'm surprised there hasn't been 1000 posts saying WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!! by now.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


heat index 105 and lows at night below 75.
doesnt qualify.

If humidity were up, we would definitely have one ,just look at statesboro, high of 104, might get an excessive heat warning for heat indexes of 114-118.

Tomorrow, sunday, and monday are candidates, sunday night low is 75 i believe, and humidity is increasing enough that we may see popip tstorms by monday

Currently, humidity is AOA 25%
Even though it does not qualify its still very dangerous heat. Glad I don't have to mow the lawn today.
I will say one thing for everybody living in the Caribbean...y'all are lucky this is not September. :P
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I'm surprised there hasn't been 1000 posts saying WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!! by now.


WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!!

;)
Quoting jeffs713:

Heat advisories go up with heat indices of 108+.



isnt it variable from place to place?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I'm surprised there hasn't been 1000 posts saying WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!! by now.


WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I'm surprised there hasn't been 1000 posts saying WE HAVE 97L!!1!!1!1!1!1!!! by now.
Be patient....It is coming
Quoting jeffs713:

That is very unlikely to happen, since prime formation time looks to be more than 48 hours out at that point.


it would take a huge blowup of convection
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


i hope that the wave comes to dominican republic, is very warm and dry here, but i think only if the storm develops before reach puerto rico , is the only way that turns west north west, and push the ridge up
Quoting Tribucanes:
It's 81 today in central Wisconsin, been over 90 last three days, and will be for at least the next week. Dew point below fifty and low humidity. Living the dream, this is some seriously dangerous heat for most the rest of ya. Wave and blob are dancing nicely for us today. Whole blob making Texas landfall, or will a portion of it break off and remain where we saw it last night?
Get any of that rain?
@662 I thought SHIPS intensity guidance had a 55 mph TS by Sunday?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


isnt it variable from place to place?

No, that is standard. But they have varying levels... Heat advisories, excessive heat warning, etc.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I will say one thing for everybody living in the Caribbean...y'all are lucky this is not September. :P


and the gulf coast because the crapshoot models are taking it up that way
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97L come to me in S FL!!:) lol


Why? We are 7 years Hurricane free... I hope that streak continues for many more years...

Population has gone up exponentially, Downtown Miami is about to become the Biggest City in the South East (With over 200 High rises and Buildings proposed)

A Hurricane would disrupt the economy's recovery...
Quoting weatherh98:


it would take a huge blowup of convection

Exactly. and looking at the data... I don't see that happening today. Later on down the road, it is a possibility. but today.. unlikely.
Quoting weatherh98:


And so begins the florida casting
whynot?.if.you.get.one.fl.has.two.your.chances.in crease
Quoting weatherh98:


and the gulf coast because the crapshoot models are taking it up that way
.......no more tropical somethings for us please, Texas needs the rains
Wow HPC day 7!!
Quoting FutureWx6221:
@662 I thought SHIPS intensity guidance had a 55 mph TS by Sunday?
.... where will it be on sunday... near the islands lol
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Why? We are 7 years Hurricane free... I hope that streak continues for many more years...

Population has gone up exponentially, Downtown Miami is about to become the Biggest City in the South East (With over 200 High rises and Buildings proposed)

A Hurricane would disrupt the economy's recovery...
Brickell, That statement is coming from someone that has no idea about weather......Or anything else for that matter.
Quoting jeffs713:

Exactly. and looking at the data... I don't see that happening today. Later on down the road, it is a possibility. but today.. unlikely.


looks like it already had a nice blow up today (Prolly the reason for the invest tag) so i dont see it happening again in the next 5 hours
Quoting weatherh98:


And so begins the florida casting


Why do you have such an anti-Florida mentality?

I'm in Florida, and I'm not wishcasting 97L to come here....

You have to excuse SFLweatherman,I bet he has never experienced a Hurricane before.
At this time, I'd give Invest 97L a 30% chance of ever developing into a tropical cyclone. It has a few things going for it right now:

* Warm Sea Surface Temperatures
* Low Wind Shear
* [Relatively] Moist Environment

but it also has two big negatives...

* No defined surface circulation
* Increased wind shear in a few days
Quoting LargoFl:
.......no more tropical somethings for us please, Texas needs the rains


SFLweatherman asked for it. its yours
I've been watching that tropical wave for 4 days now, I said that every night it will seem to get bigger and stronger, I warned y'all but nobody listened to me, nobody saw what I saw. =(
Quoting jeffs713:

No, that is standard. But they have varying levels... Heat advisories, excessive heat warning, etc.


no, that must be your CWAs criteria

Excessive Heat Warning - Extreme heat index making it feel very hot, typically above 105 °F (41 °C) for 3 hours or more during the day for two consecutive days or above 115 °F (46 °C) at any time. Specific criteria varies over different county warning areas.[27]

Heat Advisory - Extreme heat index making it feel hot, typically between 105 and 110 °F (41 and 43 °C) for up to 3 hours during the day and at or above 80 °F (27 °C) at night for two consecutive nights. Specific criteria varies over different county warning areas.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If it takes the Bams it would be like the same track as Dean.
lol
Quoting weatherh98:


SFLweatherman asked for it. its yours
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


My daughter is behaving great though! "Honey, stop or we're going outside." "O.K Pa" One of the few upsides to this sick heating. I worry about Chicago, they have so many elderly living without proper air conditioning. Seems like there's always fatalities there when heat like this is continual. JK of coarse about the verbage with the daughter, but this heat is no place for kids or pets.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Why do you have such an anti-Florida mentality?

I'm in Florida, and I'm not wishcasting 97L to come here....

You have excuse SFLweatherman,I bet he has never experienced a Hurricane before.


I bet he has. I like florida but i dont like the infestation of wishcasting from the hundreds of floridians that come back the days before a storm gets close.
.......................GFS precip im 72 hours
Quoting jeffs713:

Heat advisories go up with heat indices of 108+.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yah the heat in GA gets really bad. Its the humidity that really gets you.


That's what saving us today- 105 but humidity is 25%. No matter which, it's like being a peanut- either boiled, or dry-roasted ;)
Quoting weatherh98:


I bet he has. I like florida but i dont like the infestation of wishcasting from the hundreds of floridians that come back the days before a storm gets close.
It's the usual ignorant posters that have never experienced the wrath of a hurricane
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I will say one thing for everybody living in the Caribbean...y'all are lucky this is not September. :P
Well wind shear in the Carriabian is not that bad around 5-10 knots in many areas right now especially in the areas west of Jamaica. So depending on where 97L is going she could get quite nasty.




97L just needs to stay on the Northern side of the Caribbean. I have no idea though how shear will be when 97L gets there though.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well wind shear in the Carriabian is not that bad around 5-10 knots in many areas right now especially in the areas west of Jamaica. So depending on where 97L is going she could get quite nasty.




97L just needs to stay on the Northern side of the Caribbean. I have no idea though how shear will be when 97L gets there though.

High.
Quoting weatherh98:
.... where will it be on sunday... near the islands lol


It should be about 120 miles from the islands on Sunday this time, already well developed...and the depression is already supposed to have formed by tomorrow (according to SHIPS, one could assume a TS at 5:00 or 11:00, not that I support this, I think that is way too fast).
Here is the official NWS definition of a Heat Advisory:

Heat Advisory
Issued within 12 hours of the onset of the following conditions: heat index of at least 105°F but less than 115°F for less than 3 hours per day, or nighttime lows above 80°F for 2 consecutive days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
At this time, I'd give Invest 97L a 30% chance of ever developing into a tropical cyclone. It has a few things going for it right now:

* Warm Sea Surface Temperatures
* Low Wind Shear
* [Relatively] Moist Environment

but it also has two big negatives...

* No defined surface circulation
* Increased wind shear in a few days


if it can get a surface low, with the weak anticyclone above it, it may make it although it looks grim as the shear is around 40 knots

Note to 97L: The west coast of Florida is closed until further notice. Please and thank you :)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's the usual ignorant posters that have never experienced the wrath of a hurricane


I like hurricanes themselves just not the mess they leave ha
dabirds, no rain of measure for a full month now, with a low precip spring. Chance of rain this evening, low chance of severe weather too. It won't happen, Southern Wisconsin is so dry, I think we have our own ridge of death.
Quoting icmoore:
Note to 97L: The west coast of Florida is closed until further notice. Please and thank you :)
Ditto on that
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting weatherh98:


I like hurricanes themselves just not the mess they leave ha
Please tell me where you
live?
I bet we'll be talking more about this wave over the coming days..

Invest 97L..still a ways to get into a lot of mischief

Look at the convection about to exit Africa

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's the usual ignorant posters that have never experienced the wrath of a hurricane


Even I, living 250 miles inland, have been through hurricanes and tropical storms. I never wish them anywhere but out to sea, I have had my fill. I think it's the risk-takers that like to see hurricanes- my older brother was living in New Bern NC during Hugo, and he and his friends rented a condo at the beach and hosted a hurricane party... pity they got skunked. I told them they were idiots, but at least were the safe kind of idiot. He learned a whole new respect for hurricanes when they tried to drive down coast to see what was happening.
I don't know why you are all so surprised. If you had read my blog, you would have known this :) :P

Expect the models to shift a little North.



I like that green east of StL in 717, but not in the forecast, but guess we can hope for a pop up. Hoped they'd built up your way Tribucanes, maybe those ones west of you will make it there!

Chicago also has a lot of brick, but even less A/C than StL, so these temps do wreak havoc on elderly who worry about power bills or break-ins and don't run A/C even if have it, or open windows if they don't. I think a couple of years ago, Chicago actually had more fatalities that were heat related than StL did and were several degrees cooler w/ less humidity.
Quoting Grothar:
I don't know why you are all so surprised. If you had read my blog, you would have known this :) :P

Expect the models to shift a little North.





Explain Gro.

On another note, I'd like to say we are having great weather, clear skies, and 91-93 degree's temps.
Quoting Grothar:
I don't know why you are all so surprised. If you had read my blog, you would have known this :) :P

Expect the models to shift a little North.





A little?

I say this things goes to da Bahamas.
hey guy look like I WAS RIGHT 97L IS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GIVE ME A COOKIE AND GeorgiaStormz eat crow
Hey, I see we have Invest 97L.
What is the earliest recorded Cape-Verde type storm recorded?
Quoting Grothar:
I don't know why you are all so surprised. If you had read my blog, you would have known this :) :P

Expect the models to shift a little North.




This could be a problem for Haiti if this invest holds itself together.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Why do you have such an anti-Florida mentality?

I'm in Florida, and I'm not wishcasting 97L to come here....

You have to excuse SFLweatherman,I bet he has never experienced a Hurricane before.

I have been seeing this here since 2004...just dont understand why.....?