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Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall in Florida

By: Angela Fritz 9:07 PM GMT on June 26, 2012

Debby continues to weaken this afternoon, but remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's center of circulation made landfall this afternoon near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane hunters continue to find surface wind speeds that just meet tropical storm criteria and surface buoys on Wundermap are all clocking in at or below 30 mph. The storm's upper-level circulation is being stretched out into the Atlantic by the same steering forces that will transport it to the other side of Florida, and this combined with dry air has led to a messy-looking tropical cyclone over the past couple of days. Though there was no lack of rain yesterday in the Florida panhandle, Debby has certainly been weakened by the dry air that has wrapped into its center (figure 1). Water vapor imagery from satellite shows Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture, though rain continues to fall on the northeast side of the storm where moisture is still available. A 6 foot wide, 12-15 foot deep sinkhole swallowed a small portion of I-10 in Madison County west of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning, where heavy rain continues, though this hole will likely be filled and the lane reopened by tomorrow morning. Wind shear around 20 knots is also keeping Debby at bay, but the real disrupter is the lack of moisture.


Figure 1. Where's Debby? On the left: visible satellite imagery. On the right: water vapor satellite imagery, where the dry air ranges from black to rusty orange. Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture. These images were captured around 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Debby
The forecast for Debby continues to be similar to previous forecasts. The storm will likely continue to lose strength as it moves over Florida this evening and Wednesday, but could gain some momentum again when it reaches the yet untapped Atlantic water. There's a high chance Debby will be downgraded to tropical depression status this evening. The HPC continues to forecast up to 8 inches of rain for far northeast Florida over the next 5 days, likely because of the slight strengthening forecast to occur on Thursday and beyond. Debby's center will most likely be over Atlantic water Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Advisory map for the U.S. Tuesday afternoon. Heat advisories (pink) blanket the central U.S. This heat is expected to move eastward over the next few days as the ridge of high pressure advances.

The Heat Continues

Record highs continue to fall Tuesday afternoon in the central U.S., where Denver, Colorado had its fifth consecutive day of triple-digit heat after it reached 100°F at 1pm MDT, and could continue to rise this afternoon. This ties the all-time record for consecutive 100°F+ days. Nebraska and Kansas are particularly toasty this afternoon; McCook, Nebraska has reached 113°F so far, and Hill City, Kansas is up to 112°F. Though, to put that in perspective, the state record for Nebraska is 118°F, and the state record for Kansas is 121°F.

The heat moves east tomorrow, and by Thursday, many of the major Midwest cities are forecast to be in the triple-digits, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. By Friday the heat will be beating down on the East Coast. In the meantime out west, the forecast high in Fresno for this weekend is 82°F, which would tie as the coolest final weekend in June on record, according to the Hanford forecast office.

Angela
Tropical Storm Debby
Tropical Storm Debby
Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby
Tropical Storm Debby
Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting weatherh98:


schools have a progam that wont let you blog, ive tried.

Just yours. I logged during school a lot last hurricane season.
The trolls can be few..if you ignore them that is...
Quoting jeffs713:

I personally have no problems reading the wiki maps, they are easier on the eyes than the glaring contrast used on WU's maps. Both have their perks, but I like both. Which colors don't you like?


Well I am color blind so there is no way in hell I can ever read the Wikimaps, i love things with high contrast haha.
1004. Jax82
The rain has moved out, and totals are in...impressive.

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY JUNE 24TH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING JUNE 27TH...

...NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

NWS CLIMATE STATIONS...

JACKSONVILLE INTL AIRPORT...13.78"
GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...12.02"
***BOTH OF THESE ARE ALL-TIME RECORD 3 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL EVENTS

NWS CO-OP STATIONS...

LAKE CITY...17.29"
WHITE SPRINGS...16.67"
LIVE OAK...16.35"
JASPER...15.96"
GLEN ST MARY...14.59"
STARKE...13.90"
BELL...11.23"
JACKSONVILLE BEACH...9.88"
ORANGE SPRINGS...9.25"
HASTINGS...8.14"
OCALA...7.20"
HIGH SPRINGS...6.60"
PALM COAST...5.77"
CRESCENT CITY...5.58"
ST AUGUSTINE...4.35"

COCORAHS (COMMUNITY COLLABORATIVE RAIN...HAIL...AND SNOW NETWORK)
RAINFALL REPORTS...

SANDERSON...17.93"
JACKSONVILLE BEACH...17.46"
MIDDLEBURG...15.62"
ORANGE PARK...15.44"
JACKSONVILLE WESTSIDE...15.37"
LIVE OAK...15.30"
YULEE...15.27"
LAKE ASBURY...14.54"
FORT WHITE...13.38"
GAINESVILLE...13.24"
NEPTUNE BEACH...12.49"
CALLAHAN...12.33"
GLEN ST MARY...12.02"
KEYSTONE HEIGHTS...11.67"
MACCLENNY...11.46"
MICANOPY...11.31"
GREEN COVE SPRINGS...11.24"
NEWBERRY...11.16"
HIGH SPRINGS...11.14"
INTERLACHEN...10.67"
TRENTON...10.66"
BROOKER...10.43"
FLORAHOME...10.29"
PALATKA...9.91"
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the ones you cant tell apart.

And the glaring WU maps are barely glaring.
They are much clearer

WU is clearer, but much more harsh on the eyes. Wiki is more attractive, but less clear. They are designed for different audiences.

WU - weather nuts, people more concerned with detailed data.
Wiki - general public, people more concerned with general info and asthetics.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just yours. I logged during school a lot last hurricane season.


OOOHHHHH, i see how it is ;)
This is the big wave in Central Africa.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just yours. I logged during school a lot last hurricane season.


i got on on my phone easy but not the school computers
Quoting jeffs713:

WU is clearer, but much more harsh on the eyes. Wiki is more attractive, but less clear. They are designed for different audiences.

WU - weather nuts, people more concerned with detailed data.
Wiki - general public, people more concerned with general info and asthetics.


no info when you cant read it.
And WU should just change their background to wikis background and there would be no difference
Most of the time at school my teacher has go on certain websites only so most of the time I am never allowed on this website.
Yesterday we made it to the upper 100's with a dew point of 64! Praying for those dealing with the wildfires these past few weeks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just yours. I logged during school a lot last hurricane season.


Detention! LOL.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no info when you cant read it.
And WU should just change their background to wikis background and there would be no difference


pool was 89 today, we took ice baths between sets lol


can you tell that the two dots on the FL coast are different colors?
Or where Cat1 changes to Cat2?
Cat2 to Cat3?
Cat3 to Cat4?

Im sure you can but it takes a bit of studying
And cat1 to cat 2 is very hard, just look at the FL coast
Good grief.
We should know within a day or so what our AOI will do, when it detaches itself from the ITCZ (I think it is very close to doing so and looks quite impressive with this in mind). Also, dry air across the CATL has lowered significantly since last night, and it appears that wind shear also will not be an inhibiting factor for our wave. A third noteworthy item is that, while the magnitude of vorticity is not huge, the wave is nearly completely stacked with an impressive amount of spin. The only thing that is preventing me from outright predicting cyclogenesis is the fact that it is still June, and we are talking about a wave that is closer to Africa than the Islands.
Quoting ryang:


Geez...

Hey Ryan, good to see you on the blog again! Hope everything is well.
Quoting weatherh98:


pool was 89 today, we took ice baths between sets lol


we lay down on the pool deck and poured icewater water on ourselves.
They tried running freshwater from a hose into the pool allday.
Its like putting a syringe of icewater into a hot bathtub.
Hot as hell.(the devil is gonna be better off)

And the mid to upper 90s are coming, it will only get hotter
Well looking at the NHC radar out of Melbourne it looks as if Debby is ESE of St. Augustine just NE of Cape Canaveral.In the discussion it mentions it's possible she may get left behind by the trough on some models. If this is the center she is still moving ESE, but if they can't tell where the center is, I'm sure I can't either. Just for discussion sake hope she's in no mood for a Bahamas vacation.
Quoting AllStar17:


Detention! LOL.


what if our teachers read this....
Good Morning. Looks like things will be quiet on the tropical Atlantic, with the exception of the remnants of Debby moving off the coast, side per the most recent GFS run. Just saying......... :)

Also interesting to note the current positioning of the A-B high; some pretty strong ridging out there at the moment between Africa and the Caribbean. Have to see how this pattern will change, or not, once we get into the heart of the Cape Verde season in August-September.

Link

Rain rain
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


we layed down on the pool deck and poured water on ourselves.
They tried running freshwater from a hose into the pool allday.
Its like putting a syringe of icewater into a hot bathtub.
Hot as hell.

And the mid to upper 90s are coming, it will only get hotter

our hose water runs about 95 degrees so it heats the pool up

weve been getting abiut 100 every day.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


can you tell that the two dots on the FL coast are different colors?
Or where Cat1 changes to Cat2?
Cat2 to Cat3?
Cat3 to Cat4?

Im sure you can but it takes a bit of studying
And cat1 to cat 2 is very hard, just look at the FL coast


I like the Wikipedia colors, and I have no problem in disambiguating the colors. The image is small and kind of blurred so that's a little misleading anyway. Please stop.
Quoting weatherh98:

our hose water runs about 95 degrees so it heats the pool up

weve been getting abiut 100 every day.


in GA the water past a certain point in the piping system heats to 100+ but the water from the deep in the pipes and the water system is quite cold to the touch after a few minutes.

Maybe since GA trounces LA, we even have a better water system
Sorry for the double-post.

GFS does not develop that little 10% wave out there mentioned by NHC..............
Quoting wxgeek723:


I like the Wikipedia colors, and I have no problem in disambiguating the colors. The image is small and kind of blurred so that's a little misleading anyway. Please stop.


ok ,to each his own, and the image is not that small. or blurred.
but i will stop
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


in GA the water past a certain point in the piping system heats to 100+ but the water from the deep in the pipes and the water system is quite cold to the touch after a few minutes.

Maybe since GA trounces LA, we even have a better water system


yall have hard water nuckle nuts.

we dont
Poll time

Which state has awesomer (NOT SUNSHINE, WEATHER INCLUDES: RAIN, WIND, THUNDERSTORMS, SLEET, SNOW, CANES) weather?

A georgia
B Louisiana


ill say B
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


can you tell that the two dots on the FL coast are different colors?
Or where Cat1 changes to Cat2?
Cat2 to Cat3?
Cat3 to Cat4?

Im sure you can but it takes a bit of studying
And cat1 to cat 2 is very hard, just look at the FL coast
Frances was a slw moving monster.And by the look of the track seems parts of Georgia got good rains.
Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

Which state has awesomer (NOT SUNSHINE, RAIN, WIND, THUNDERSTORMS, SLEET, SNOW, CANES) weather?

A georgia
B Louisiana

C. North Carolina
This continues to be very interesting in the discussions:
"THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE REGIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW DEBBY BEING
LEFT BEHIND BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH."
Another startling view from Colorado Springs last evening as the firestorm was near its worst. Oh, man...

fire

The worst fire in Colorado Springs history--and one of the worst in Colorado history--takes place on the hottest day in Colorado Springs history.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no info when you cant read it.
And WU should just change their background to wikis background and there would be no difference

Changing to the wiki background would reduce the amount of raw data available. Remember, WU focuses on more data, wiki is more on asthetics. Kinda like how a Toyota Corolla is designed for people who just want to get from point A to point B. A Lexus IS is designed for a completely different audience.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

C. North Carolina


not an option pick one
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Sorry for the double-post.

GFS does not develop that little 10% wave out there mentioned by NHC..............


It did a few runs back. There has been plenty of storms that formed the gfs didn't develope. GFS isn't Gospel lol
Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

Which state has awesomer (NOT SUNSHINE, WEATHER INCLUDES: RAIN, WIND, THUNDERSTORMS, SLEET, SNOW, CANES) weather?

A georgia
B Louisiana

Hawaii.
1040. Grothar
Even though there is a lot of SAL out there, especially near the Antilles, a lot of models do not give it as much weight as they used to. The current system in the Atlantic looks like it is trying to create its own moisture field. SAL can defintely have an impact on a system, but it also depends on the height of the layer field and the strength of the system.

Quoting jeffs713:

Hawaii.


pick one of the two
Quoting Grothar:
Even though there is a lot of SAL out there, especially near the Antilles, a lot of models do not give it as much weight as they used to. The current system in the Atlantic looks like it is trying to create its own moisture field. SAL can defintely have an impact on a system, but it also depends on the height of the layer field and the strength of the system.



its moving the sal around it
Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

Which state has awesomer (NOT SUNSHINE, WEATHER INCLUDES: RAIN, WIND, THUNDERSTORMS, SLEET, SNOW, CANES) weather?

A georgia
B Louisiana


why ask stupid questions?
We all know the answer and it doesnt start with L

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

C. North Carolina


dont be funny.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


why ask stupid questions?
We all know the answer and it dont start with L



dont be funny.


wish polling much?
Quoting jeffs713:

Changing to the wiki background would reduce the amount of raw data available. Remember, WU focuses on more data, wiki is more on asthetics. Kinda like how a Toyota Corolla is designed for people who just want to get from point A to point B. A Lexus IS is designed for a completely different audience.


it can be done, everything the WU background has can be recreated on the Wiki map, it is mainly just borders and lines.
bad.yr.for.florida.and.it.hasnot.even.started
QUESTION OF THE DAY



What state in the nation has the best weather?
And be objective, dont pick you own state.


_________________________________________________ _____

I would have to say probably TX, their only problem is they are a little low on the snow.
Quoting mcluvincane:


It did a few runs back. There has been plenty of storms that formed the gfs didn't develope. GFS isn't Gospel lol


I know.......We will have plenty of ghost storms this year, like every year, from the various models but I will be curious to see how GFS performs for the rest of the season or if Debby as a "lucky" guess.....
1049. pcola57
Quoting Grothar:
Well,a number of people asked me to do a blog last night. I did one early this morning and not ONE of you even looked at. So now I think I will keep you all in suspense about those suspicious waves.:)


Now if you just read your responses to your blog and comment on them that would be OK with me..:p
Don't worry about me as you have my respect.. :)
Texas has the weirdest weather in the United States. Snowstorms and frigid temperatures in the winter, warm and tornado outbreaks in the spring, very hot and sunny in the summer, and rainy and warm in the fall.
Maybe this years hurricane season will be like this years tornado season.Started off with a bang and really fast and ended as a dud.Lol.
1052. ncstorm

1053. ryang
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Geez...

Hey Ryan, good to see you on the blog again! Hope everything is well.


Haha, long time indeed, and yea im good. Hope you are well too btw.

I hope that Twave can bring me some well needed rain.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
QUESTION OF THE DAY



What state in the nation has the best weather?
And be objective, dont pick you own state.


_________________________________________________ _____

I would have to say probably TX, their only problem is they are a little low on the snow.


louisiana
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
QUESTION OF THE DAY

What state in the nation has the best weather?
And be objective, dont pick you own state.
_________________________________________________ _____

I would have to say probably TX, their only problem is they are a little low on the snow.


Hawaii
This is why we need a decent Tropical Wave to at least aliviate what we are going thru and that is why I am rooting for that wave to bring good moisture to the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1118 AM AST WED JUN 27 2012

.UPDATE...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS OF 11 AM AST...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
OBSERVED AT SAN JUAN SO FAR WAS 91 DEGREES. THIS MARKS THE 29TH
DAY IN A ROW WITH 90 DEGREES OR MORE AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
QUESTION OF THE DAY



What state in the nation has the best weather?
And be objective, dont pick you own state.


_________________________________________________ _____

I would have to say probably TX, their only problem is they are a little low on the snow.

North Carolina.
1059. Grothar
The first run of the new GFS is showing a Low in the vicinity of the wave.




Caribbean Storm Update June 27 2012

Blog Update

img src="">

Link
This is going to get interesting...It would be kinda hilarious if it did develop.
flood.pictures.from.the.music.park.near.live.oak.fl .http://www.facebook.com/musicliveshere
IF it develops, I can't see it really having an impact with the US...especially with all the ridging set up.. it will go south
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

North Carolina.


too late, you picked TX
1065. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


can you tell that the two dots on the FL coast are different colors?
Or where Cat1 changes to Cat2?
Cat2 to Cat3?
Cat3 to Cat4?

Im sure you can but it takes a bit of studying
And cat1 to cat 2 is very hard, just look at the FL coast
..dont even THINK about sending that here
Quoting weatherh98:


pick one of the two

Their weather isn't that different, honestly.

I'm going to stick with my original answer.
1067. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


too late, you picked TX

TX has the weirdest, NC has the nicest.
Quoting jeffs713:

Their weather isn't that different, honestly.

I'm going to stick with my original answer.


you have to pic one
1070. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
I know its fantasy BUT..imagine she crossed florida again and went into the gulf
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

TX has the weirdest, NC has the nicest.


pick from georgia or louisiana
Quoting weatherh98:


you have to pic one

Actually, no I don't have to pick one.
Quoting LargoFl:
I know its fantasy BUT..imagine she crossed florida again and went into the gulf


no, just no
Quoting jeffs713:

Actually, no I don't have to pick one.


will you do me a favor
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is why we need a decent Tropical Wave to at least aliviate what we are going thru and that is why I am rooting for that wave to bring good moisture to the NE Caribbean.



The Carribean is going to get some moisture in at the end of the week. Here is this am's NCEP Caribbean desk
discussion:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
704 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. EXCEPT FOR A DRYER AIR MASS...LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF A RIDGE/TUTT
PAIR. AT LOW LEVELS...A HIGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN FAVORS A BRISK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST IS TO INITIALLY BLOCK THE TUTT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...WILL START TO EVOLVE ON THURSDAY...WITH RIDGE WEAKENING/RAPIDLY ERODING AS TUTT LOW ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AS THE RIDGE ERODES...TRADE WIND CAP WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO ESTABLISH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS...HOWEVER...DIVERGE ON IMPACT THIS IS GOING TO HAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GFS DEPICTING A WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY WHILE LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THROUGH 84-96 HRS THE TUTT WILL ENTER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES...THEN STARTS TO LIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAKE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE CORRECTIONS TO THIS FORECAST. OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO THEY HAVE EVOLVED FROM A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO A TRAJECTORY ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND THEY ARE MAKING
IT MORE LIKELY FOR THIS FEATURE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHILE FAVORING AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION.




There goes the GFS again............
BBL gotta take a nappy
Quoting weatherh98:


pick from georgia or louisiana

I dont wanna.
Karl Parker said that the models could show a much more stronger system in the near future...I'm still skeptical.
Quoting weatherh98:


will you do me a favor

Nope. Only my wife gets those. ;)

(I'm actually just being difficult because I detest polls, especially those with a personal agenda or with a very limited set of responses)
1080. LargoFl
1081. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
notice that whatever it is down by mexico has stuck around for a few days
1082. LargoFl
..................................st.pete beach cam
Well I have to say watching a C-130 bomb a ridge line over and over with fire retardant up close was one of the coolest things i've seen. Super unfortunate what happened down in Colorado Springs last night but you just can't fight a fire that ferocious in 65mph winds. May just be some wetting rains over the fire zones today if we are lucky, would be a good Birthday present for myself!

If the wave don`t develop in the Atlantic maybe in the Eastern Pacific.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Karl Parker said that the models could show a much more stronger system in the near future...I'm still skeptical.


Which system is he talking about Debby or the CATL wave.
1086. LargoFl
...........................Clearwater Beach cam
Trpoical Weather Discussion With Dave L. Becroft





Link
What state in the nation has the best weather?
And be objective, dont pick you own state.

California. It has quite the variety of weather - Near-perfect: San Diego; Snowy: Tahoe; Cool: SF and north coast; Hot: Central Valley and Smog: LA.
Quoting SouthTampa:
What state in the nation has the best weather?
And be objective, dont pick you own state.

California. It has quite the variety of weather - Near-perfect: San Diego; Snowy: Tahoe; Cool: SF and north coast; Hot: Central Valley and Smog: LA.

Hawaii. Unless you're a snowbird, then Colorado.
1090. LargoFl
would this be near the fire area's in colorado?........................FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
507 AM MDT WED JUN 27 2012

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WALDO BURN SCAR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES BY
EARLY EVENING...ALLOWING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. IF THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER
THE BURN SCAR REGION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAINFALL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING. POPULATED AREAS WHICH COULD SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE MANITOU SPRINGS AND OLD COLORADO CITY.

COZ081-085-271915-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0001.120627T2300Z-120628T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-
INCLUDING...WOODLAND PARK...COLORADO SPRINGS
507 AM MDT WED JUN 27 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES AND THE RAMPART RANGE.

* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WALDO BURN SCAR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* AREAS WITH THE MOST SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INCLUDE
MANITOU SPRINGS AND OLD COLORADO CITY...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE
WILLIAMS CREEK AND WALDO CREEK DRAINAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Which system is he talking about Debby or the CATL wave.
Central Atlantic wave.
tw.is.separated.from.itz+++
1093. LargoFl
...............................Pasco county flooding
1094. ncstorm
138 hours in
Well I won't drive anybody crazy but the NHC radar out of Melbourne looks a little more interesting each frame. Looks a little like a circulation moving ESE to SE off of Cape Canaveral.
Quoting SouthTampa:
What state in the nation has the best weather?
And be objective, dont pick you own state.

California. It has quite the variety of weather - Near-perfect: San Diego; Snowy: Tahoe; Cool: SF and north coast; Hot: Central Valley and Smog: LA.


Quoting jeffs713:

Hawaii. Unless you're a snowbird, then Colorado.


New England is awesome if you are a weather buff. Nor'easter's, the occasional Hurricane/Tornado, Ice Storms etc...Got to love it here in Colorado though, well except these past few weeks.
1097. pcola57
Quoting IceCoast:
Well I have to say watching a C-130 bomb a ridge line over and over with fire retardant up close was one of the coolest things i've seen. Super unfortunate what happened down in Colorado Springs last night but you just can't fight a fire that ferocious in 65mph winds. May just be some wetting rains over the fire zones today if we are lucky, would be a good Birthday present for myself!



Happy Birthday..I hope you get your wish
We have Colorado wild fire smoke in our air in Houston, smoggy hazy looking air.
Quoting PackManWx:
IF it develops, I can't see it really having an impact with the US...especially with all the ridging set up.. it will go south


Maybe something for Nicaragua
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Please Take down the YOUTUBE video! I've said this before! Please take it down, It crashes the blog page!(for me) STOP POSTING YOUTUBE VIDEOS ON THE MAIN BLOG. Post them on YOUR blog so that people can still see them, but so it Doesn't crash the main blog. Thanks.
1101. LargoFl
The GFS and Euro are showing Daniel in the EPAC within the next 10 days.
They form it from a Monsoon trough and the tropical wave currently sitting in the Central Atlantic.
Quoting LargoFl:
notice that whatever it is down by mexico has stuck around for a few days


It's Don,he wants to try again............lol
The circulation of Debby appears that it is now moving southeastward.
VISIBLE LOOP
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


It's Don,he wants to try again............lol

Maybe he'll try to NOT poof, before coming ashore...
Anyone got a satellite image of Debby?
Quoting AllStar17:
The circulation of Debby appears that it is now moving southeastward.
VISIBLE LOOP

If the ridge were to capture her, she could stick around a couple of more days... UGH go away Debby, unless you want to come to Texas, we would love for you to pay a short little visit.
1108. tea3781
Quoting AllStar17:
The circulation of Debby appears that it is now moving southeastward.
VISIBLE LOOP


Yeah...I see the same thing...

If it keeps going south wont it miss the trough
Good morning.

After Debby it looks as if things will be quiet for the next week in the Atlantic basin. The GFS drops the low that is now out in the central Atlantic and the NHC is presently calling for dissipation near 55 W.

A break will allow everyone to catch up on their sleep.
1110. guygee
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well looking at the NHC radar out of Melbourne it looks as if Debby is ESE of St. Augustine just NE of Cape Canaveral.In the discussion it mentions it's possible she may get left behind by the trough on some models. If this is the center she is still moving ESE, but if they can't tell where the center is, I'm sure I can't either. Just for discussion sake hope she's in no mood for a Bahamas vacation.
I am seeing the same thing...I think there is a good chance the NHC is eager to wash their hands of Debby and name her extratropical in the next advisory or by tonight. There is so much dry air in the vicinity that even if she gets left behind it seems unlikely that she can regenerate. However, if they discontinue advisories and then Debby regains TS status the NHC will go from having egg in their face to having a face full of three-egg omelette with fire-roasted peppers and onions, fresh spinach and mushrooms folded in with diced tomatoes and shredded Cheddar cheese.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

If the ridge were to capture her, she could stick around a couple of more days... UGH go away Debby, unless you want to come to Texas, we would love for you to pay a short little visit.
With Debby there is no such thing as a short little visit.
Quoting LargoFl:
The BAM suite continues to insist it will go back into the Gulf. Interesting. Too bad, they are of low quality.
Is recon planning on doing anymore trips over to Debby, or are they done?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The GFS and Euro are showing Daniel in the EPAC within the next 10 days.
They form it from a Monsoon trough and the tropical wave currently sitting in the Central Atlantic.
I'm going to guess a very strong high pressure ridge in the Atlantic is going to keep this low and traversing west through the Caribbean kind of like Dean and Felix.
Quoting ncstorm:
138 hours in
Strong wave coming off Africa.I don't see why the models don't at least develop the current wave into a weak T.S.dry air is the only inhibiting factor.But the wave is creating it's own moisture field agents the SAL...
Quoting guygee:
I am seeing the same thing...I think there is a good chance the NHC is eager to wash their hands of Debby and name her extratropical in the next advisory or by tonight. There is so much dry air in the vicinity that even if she gets left behind it seems unlikely that she can regenerate. However, if they discontinue advisories and then Debby regains TS status the NHC will go from having egg in their face to having a face full of three-egg omelette with fire-roasted peppers and onions, fresh spinach and mushrooms folded in with diced tomatoes and shredded Cheddar cheese.

Can I have a side of Bacon to go with that?
Sounds Delicious...
I am still not convinced that Debby will be history, I know what the models say but I don't like the visible sat. In particular, I don't like the angle she is moving at, it looks she still wants to decouple from trough and she is at the very end of the trough which can always be tricky. Call me a fool, but I won't be satisfied until she starts moving northeast.

As for the wave in Central Atlantic, if you look at the water vapor sat. You can see a ton of dry air ahead of it but it looks like the wave is generating its own moisture. And the northwest quad on the visible sat. has some really nice banding going on. I would bump this baby up to a 20 or 30% invest. The kicker is there is nothing to shear it apart... it's clear sailing if it generate its own moisture. Could this be an earlier indicator of the CV season kicking in?
1120. guygee
Quoting tazmaniad:
maturity level on this board is pretty weaksauce
Examples, please? Or are you also "weaksauce".
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm going to guess a very strong high pressure ridge in the Atlantic is going to keep this low and traversing west through the Caribbean kind of like Dean and Felix.

Most of the waves will be taking that track, this year.
Just wait until they start developing near CV. It gonna be a nasty season for the caribbean and the gulf.
Quoting guygee:
Examples, please? Or are you also "weaksauce".

No, he is a troll trying to badly impersonate Taz. And still failing.
Retirement 2012: xD
Alberto- No
Beryl- 5% chance
Chris- 3% chance
Debby- 65% chance
1124. LargoFl
.............................GFS precip at 42 hours
Ignore the troll. It's not there. What troll are you talking about? I don't see any troll.
Vertical instability in the Atlantic is significantly below climo which means that the odds of a system spinning up out there now are very low. The more stable the air mass the harder for systems to form and develop.

We are still about 14 days early to pay too much attention out there.

1127. pcola57
Quoting 12george1:
Anyone got a satellite image of Debby?


See post #1104..and don't forget to zoom.. :)
trolls. still trying to figure it out.  taz is the same guy as georgiastormz???
1129. guygee
Quoting jeffs713:

No, he is a troll trying to badly impersonate Taz. And still failing.
Thank you for the explanation...I should have seen that one. Turning a blind eye to that guy now and forever.
1130. LargoFl
.........................GFS precip at 150 hours
Quoting LargoFl:
.............................GFS precip at 42 hours

Finally Florida can dry out... Kinda too late for that though. Some places are 2 feet underwater.
Hi all. Lurker for years, but don't post much!
The reason I'm posting is that I've seen some unexplainable forecast temps on the WU forecast page. Not just for me in Phila area, but also for family in Tampa area. The temps, for at least two weeks, have been way overblown. WU forecast page has actually posted a 109F temp for my area, and it was 12F lower. Right now, Tuesday of next week in Hudson Fla is showing 102F with fog. Every other day for 10 days is between 99 and 102. This is impossible; it's never gotten that hot in the 30+ years we've lived there. Every day is 10-15 degrees cooler than predicted. Is somebody hacking, and WU doesn't know? Scientist forecaster discussions present correct temps, but what gets posted is 10-15 F higher, every day now for more than two weeks. I don't know how to contact admin about it.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Most of the waves will be taking that track, this year.
Just wait until they start developing near CV. It gonna be a nasty season for the caribbean and the gulf.
Really that would make them affect CA and Mexico. I thought this year was a USA landfalls.
1134. LargoFl
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Finally Florida can dry out... Kinda too late for that though. Some places are 2 feet underwater.
...............yes and the rivers are still flooding but in a few days people will be able to get back in their homes,this storm showed people..who needs flood insurance real bad..this was probably the most rain we will ever get outside of the once a century Monster storm..real glad i chose high ground,instead of close to the water like my wife wanted..
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Finally Florida can dry out... Kinda too late for that though. Some places are 2 feet underwater.
But it still helps.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Retirement 2012: xD
Alberto- No
Beryl- 5% chance
Chris- 3% chance
Debby- 85% chance
Fay wasn't retired in 2008. I doubt Debby will be retired, but there's always a slight possibility.
1137. LargoFl
.........................GFS at 300 hours..for some reason Florida is wet again
1138. icmoore
I guess it's just me but the right side of the blog is cut off so no way to plus, ect. and it's not allowing me to quote. I need to get up anyway I want to walk over to the beach this afternoon and check it out. Have a great afternoon.
My guess is that the Tropics will take a break like they did during the beginning of June, and then the solid activity will kick off and we'll see back to back storms more and more... until October. Then the season will die.
May
Alberto
Beryl
June
Chris
Debby
July
Ernesto
Florence

August
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce

September
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine

October
Oscar
November
None
Quoting plutorising:
trolls. still trying to figure it out.  taz is the same guy as georgiastormz???
No. I know for a fact Taz is not GAstormz.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Retirement 2012: xD
Alberto- No
Beryl- 5% chance
Chris- 3% chance
Debby- 85% chance

Alberto and Beryl definitely won't be retired. I don't think Debby will be retired either. She did cause significant flooding, but she did not park over a major metro area, and her likely damage total will pale in comparison to Allison of 2001. If she had parked over an area like Tampa, and dumped 20+ inches over a wide area, then yes, she stands a decent chance of retirement. As is, she didn't quite get to that catastrophic level. (that said, she did significantly impact many people's lives, and that cannot be diminished in any way)
Quoting dartboardmodel:
I am still not convinced that Debby will be history, I know what the models say but I don't like the visible sat. In particular, I don't like the angle she is moving at, it looks she still wants to decouple from trough and she is at the very end of the trough which can always be tricky. Call me a fool, but I won't be satisfied until she starts moving northeast.

As for the wave in Central Atlantic, if you look at the water vapor sat. You can see a ton of dry air ahead of it but it looks like the wave is generating its own moisture. And the northwest quad on the visible sat. has some really nice banding going on. I would bump this baby up to a 20 or 30% invest. The kicker is there is nothing to shear it apart... it's clear sailing if it generate its own moisture. Could this be an earlier indicator of the CV season kicking in?

More like, showing that it's almost that time of year.
Per the earlier NCEP Caribbean forecast I posted (link below) that wave will possibly bring some rain to the Greater Antilles (which is a good thing) but the "x" factor will be the trajectory (per the ridging at the moment) and whether it will track south, north, or through them...........Not on the radar for any significant development at this point.

Link

Quoting allancalderini:
Really that would make them affect CA and Mexico. I thought this year was a USA landfalls.

Its a Caribbean runner type season, but steering patterns would put every runner into the Yucatan or Gulf coast.
Gulf coast you better look out...
1145. LargoFl
.....................GFS at 78 hours precip..look at all the moisture coming along out of Afica
but they're both considered trolls?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
No. I know for a fact Taz is not GAstormz.

1147. guygee
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Finally Florida can dry out... Kinda too late for that though. Some places are 2 feet underwater.
The vast majority of Floridians will be grateful. I am in a strange position of living on a very well-drained barrier island (officially unnamed but known as the Space Coast). Even Fay with her 2 feet of rain was well-drained here before a week passed. Not far inland, in Melbourne the unfortunate inhabitants of the infamous "Lamplighter Village" had their homes flooded for several weeks.

When the summer sun beats down without rain for a week in my vicinity, the soil dries very quickly and becomes hydrophobic. I would rather see regular normal weekly rains then this feast or famine rainfall pattern.
Doesn't it look like Debby is moving South East. Wouldn't it be fun if Debby did a loopdeloop and came back to the east coast of Florida like some of the Models suggest?
1149. pcola57
Quoting cloudymix:
Hi all. Lurker for years, but don't post much!
The reason I'm posting is that I've seen some unexplainable forecast temps on the WU forecast page. Not just for me in Phila area, but also for family in Tampa area. The temps, for at least two weeks, have been way overblown. WU forecast page has actually posted a 109F temp for my area, and it was 12F lower. Right now, Tuesday of next week in Hudson Fla is showing 102F with fog. Every other day for 10 days is between 99 and 102. This is impossible; it's never gotten that hot in the 30+ years we've lived there. Every day is 10-15 degrees cooler than predicted. Is somebody hacking, and WU doesn't know? Scientist forecaster discussions present correct temps, but what gets posted is 10-15 F higher, every day now for more than two weeks. I don't know how to contact admin about it.


Contact them here and sumit a "Query Ticket"..It gets their attention and they have always helped me .. :)
1150. guygee
Quoting cyclonekid:
Fay wasn't retired in 2008. I doubt Debby will be retired, but there's always a slight possibility.
Speaking of which, Debby has been in the rotation since at least 1982. If she wants the 30 and out retirement package she's gonna have to work harder.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I can't believe they deleted the total precip. on NOAA's radar page. It was white as snow, all across Florida.

Anyone have a link to a better total precip. page for Florida? I tried looking for one last night and had no luck finding a graphic with a combined total. It's obviously off most charts, but someone is bound to be looking at one at NOAA.


What do you mean "deleted" the total precip? If you mean that the numbers that used to show up have since gone to "0", that's because the storm is over, and thus, storm total is reset for the next storm. The data was not "deleted" in any way, you just need to look for it in another manner.

Some of the best estimates of precipitation from the NWS will come from the river forecast centers because higher accuracy of precipitation estimates increases accuracy of the river models.

Please see:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

Both sites allow you to download archived data to view on your own or store for your own purposes.
Quoting SouthTampa:
What state in the nation has the best weather?
And be objective, dont pick you own state.

California. It has quite the variety of weather - Near-perfect: San Diego; Snowy: Tahoe; Cool: SF and north coast; Hot: Central Valley and Smog: LA.
U nailed it bud.in the winter ya can ski at big bear,afternoon 70's at the beach,and then ya can go to the desert for 80,s,its all good,just ignore the earthquakes and santa ana fires!
I agree with no retirement for Debby...
Retirement= A catastrophic storm that is warranted retirement because it could be a sensitive discussion if it were to be kept as a name for the next cycle, especially(Ex. If Ivan was kept as a storm name, and went into the caribbean in 2010 and came toward the Caymans and Jamaica, You don't want people that already dealt ,and suffered loss, with Ivan of 04' to have to deal with a Ivan of 10') Basically. Debby won't be retired, but definately remembered to some as the worst rainmaker since Allison/Fay.

I believe we will get a retirement this season though.
Quoting LargoFl:
.....................GFS at 78 hours precip..look at all the moisture coming along out of Afica

All that rain is normal... Its the ITCZ causing it.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Maybe he'll try to NOT poof, before coming ashore...


he can't do any worse a job....lol
Quoting guygee:
Speaking of which, Debby has been in the rotation since at least 1982. If she wants the 30 and out retirement package she's gonna have to work harder.

I think she'll wait until she's 48.
1157. pcola57
Quoting cloudymix:
Hi all. Lurker for years, but don't post much!
The reason I'm posting is that I've seen some unexplainable forecast temps on the WU forecast page. Not just for me in Phila area, but also for family in Tampa area. The temps, for at least two weeks, have been way overblown. WU forecast page has actually posted a 109F temp for my area, and it was 12F lower. Right now, Tuesday of next week in Hudson Fla is showing 102F with fog. Every other day for 10 days is between 99 and 102. This is impossible; it's never gotten that hot in the 30+ years we've lived there. Every day is 10-15 degrees cooler than predicted. Is somebody hacking, and WU doesn't know? Scientist forecaster discussions present correct temps, but what gets posted is 10-15 F higher, every day now for more than two weeks. I don't know how to contact admin about it.


Quoting pcola57:


Contact them here and sumit a "Query Ticket"..It gets their attention and they have always helped me .. :)
After such an exciting couple of days dealing with dumb Debby, I am in the airport awaiting a flight to Maine to cool off for a couple of weeks. I trust you bloggers will keep Debby from staying away from my area while I'm enjoying m vacation :p
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


he can't do any worse a job....lol

Unless he were to reform and then poof a day after.
Well it looks like Debby might give us a parting gift after all!!!

Debby's tight circulation is forecasted to bring drier air down the spine of the peninsula by tonight. Which means those lower dewpoints over north Florida and Georgia will be payin' us a visit by tomorrow!

Plus it appears Orlando and Tampa will get a much deserved break on the rain department until at least the second week of July!

Even though it's the rainy season down here, this is actually some great news! I wouldn't want afternoon convection rubbing salt to the wound now.
1153. It's too early to tell, but Allison produced massive flooding in Texas and was retired.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
After such an exciting couple of days dealing with dumb Debby, I am in the airport awaiting a flight to Maine to cool off for a couple of weeks. I trust you bloggers will keep Debby from staying away from my area while I'm enjoying m vacation :p

Im sure Debby would love to pay a visit to Maine after she spends some time down in the Bahamas.
Yeah bro, only thing is, is that it brings a land breeze, you know what that means.....HOT HOT HOT.

I'm thinking 95-96 degrees. At least for us on the SE coast
hello folks
Quoting CybrTeddy:
1153. It's too early to tell, but Allison produced massive flooding in Texas and was retired.

True. That's why I mentioned Retirement of Debby is possible... 1123.
Quoting E46Pilot:
Yeah bro, only thing is, is that it brings a land breeze, you know what that means.....HOT HOT HOT.

I'm thinking 95-96 degrees.

You think that's HOT HOT HOT?
It was 109 here yesterday.
Supposed to be 106 today.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Unless he were to reform and then poof a day after.


lol
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I agree with no retirement for Debby...
Retirement= A catastrophic storm that is warranted retirement because it could be a sensitive discussion if it were to be kept as a name for the next cycle, especially(Ex. If Ivan was kept as a storm name, and went into the caribbean in 2010 and came toward the Caymans and Jamaica, You don't want people that already dealt ,and suffered loss, with Ivan of 04' to have to deal with a Ivan of 10') Basically. Debby won't be retired, but definately remembered to some as the worst rainmaker since Allison/Fay.

I believe we will get a retirement this season though.


yeah everyone will have forgotten about debby except for the 30 people in those 3 counties in planhandle near tallahassee...ive already forgotten her! NEXT!


2003 bad year for fires
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yeah everyone will have forgotten about debby except for the 30 people in those 3 counties in planhandle near tallahassee...ive already forgotten her! NEXT!

People will forget about her, yes, because they'll be more potent and interesting storms to watch moving on through the season... :D
BBL...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

You think that's HOT HOT HOT?
It was 109 here yesterday.


Ouch, thats a dry heat though right?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

People will forget about her, yes, because they'll be more potent and interesting storms to watch moving on through the season... :D


people wont forget the head ache she gave them
Just imagine that with a nice breeze off of a swamp.
Quoting E46Pilot:
Just imagine that with a nice breeze off of a swamp.


dats what i get. i gotta bayou and a sawmp two blocks from me
After 2 days of malingering in the northeastGulf, Debby crossed Florida in less than 12hours

Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionDebby for 27June12pmGMT:
28.9n84.4w-29.3n83.6w-29.4n83.1w has been re-evaluated&altered*
29.0n84.2w-29.3n83.6w-29.4n82.6w-29.5n81.5w are now the most recent positions

For those who like to visually track TD.Debby's path...
AAF-Apalachicola : 5FD0-OldTown (north of Chiefland) : KXFL-FlaglerBeach (south of PalmCoast)

The SWesternmost kinked line is TropicalStormDebby's path on the 1st day
The middle kinked line is TS.Debby's path on the 2nd day
The NEasternmost kinked line is TS.Debby's path on the 3rd day
The lone unlabeled dot is the 26June9pmGMT NHC.Advisory's landfall at 29.5n83.4w

The Easternmost dot on the 3rd kinked line is Debby's final ATCF position as a TropicalStorm
The next dot 6hours-East on the connected line-segment is Debby as a TropicalDepression
The straightline between the two intersects the coastline at 29.344n83.171w

Copy&paste aaf, 29.5n83.4w, 5fd0, liy, kxfl, mhh, 26.0n87.6w- 26.5n87.4w- 27.0n87.3w- 27.8n86.5w- 28.3n85.9w, 28.3n85.9w- 28.5n85.8w- 28.6n85.8w- 28.6n85.5w- 29.0n85.2w, 29.0n85.2w- 29.0n85.0w- 28.9n84.7w- 29.0n84.2w- 29.3n83.6w, 29.3n83.6w-29.4n82.6w, 29.4n82.6w-29.5n81.5w, 29.5n81.5w-29.6n80.4w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
See the previous mapping to compare the differences.

* Positions and vectors have been corrected for this mapping
Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

Which state has awesomer (NOT SUNSHINE, WEATHER INCLUDES: RAIN, WIND, THUNDERSTORMS, SLEET, SNOW, CANES) weather?

A georgia
B Louisiana


ill say B


Well, if you're definition of awesome weather is NOT sunshine, then Louisiana probably does win.

GA can get some intense thundertsorms, but it takes a lot to get them so far east. Our community was hit hard by a 130mph tornado in 2008, but I firmly believe I won't see anything like that again (and I hope I'm right).

GA is also really too far south and east for snowstorms. Several times when it actually does snow in the SE, areas in GA will get 1-2 inches while TX through AL could get like 8.

And in terms of canes, LA is much more frequently hit by cyclones than GA is. In order for a tropical storm or hurricane to directly affect Georgia, it would have to be moving north through the big bend area of the FL panhandle or west into that tiny coast of GA. Those two areas are the two least visited by tropical cyclones. I don't know if you would consider that a win or not lol. Obviously we don't want a Cat 5 hitting us here in GA but we don't really have to worry about it much.

So I guess my vote is B.


•Total Acres: 273,246
•Estimated Suppression Cost: $29,880,826
•Firefighters assigned at Peak: 4,275
•Residences Destroyed: 2,232
•Commercial Structures Destroyed: 22
•Other Structures Destroyed: 566
•Lives Lost: 14
•Communities Evacuated: Ramona, Pine Hills, Barona Mesa,
San Diego Country Estates, Poway, Descano, Flynn Springs,
Jamul, Pine Valley, El Cajon, Santee, Lakeside, San Diego,
Julian, Mt. Laguna, Escondido, Crest, Cuyamaca, Alpine,
Guatay, Santa Isabel, Ranchito, Wynola, Santa Ysabel
•Cause: Human
•Fuel Type: Grass, medium to heavy brush, and timber
1179. 7544
still some banding to the south of debby go on looks like shes going se not ne at this hour could the bamms be right time will tell could she have one more trick to play out and woulnt we all flip if she makes that turn back west lol
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well, if you're definition of awesome weather is NOT sunshine, then Louisiana probably does win.

GA can get some intense thundertsorms, but it takes a lot to get them so far east. Our community was hit hard by a 130mph tornado in 2008, but I firmly believe I won't see anything like that again (and I hope I'm right).

GA is also really too far south and east for snowstorms. Several times when it actually does snow in the SE, areas in GA will get 1-2 inches while TX through AL could get like 8.

And in terms of canes, LA is much more frequently hit by cyclones than GA is. In order for a tropical storm or hurricane to directly affect Georgia, it would have to be moving north through the big bend area of the FL panhandle or west into that tiny coast of GA. Those two areas are the two least visited by tropical cyclones. I don't know if you would consider that a win or not lol. Obviously we don't want a Cat 5 hitting us here in GA but we don't really have to worry about it much.

So I guess my vote is B.


Thank you!
1181. ncstorm
12z CMC

24 hours


48 Hours


78 Hours



Does anyone have a link to accurate storm surge maps from Debby? I'm looking for Tampa Bay - St Petersburg side, specifically Shore Acres area. After spending the last 3 days pretty much underwater - with no power - I'd like to know what the real surge level was so I can better plan next time around :) Thanks.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Its a Caribbean runner type season, but steering patterns would put every runner into the Yucatan or Gulf coast.
Gulf coast you better look out...
Thank God I don+t want a hurricane affecting my country.
Quoting allancalderini:
Thank God I don+t want a hurricane affecting my country.


you may have to eat crow on here for saying that.HIDE!!!
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well, if you're definition of awesome weather is NOT sunshine, then Louisiana probably does win.

GA can get some intense thundertsorms, but it takes a lot to get them so far east. Our community was hit hard by a 130mph tornado in 2008, but I firmly believe I won't see anything like that again (and I hope I'm right).

GA is also really too far south and east for snowstorms. Several times when it actually does snow in the SE, areas in GA will get 1-2 inches while TX through AL could get like 8.

And in terms of canes, LA is much more frequently hit by cyclones than GA is. In order for a tropical storm or hurricane to directly affect Georgia, it would have to be moving north through the big bend area of the FL panhandle or west into that tiny coast of GA. Those two areas are the two least visited by tropical cyclones. I don't know if you would consider that a win or not lol. Obviously we don't want a Cat 5 hitting us here in GA but we don't really have to worry about it much.

So I guess my vote is B.


neither. North Carolina is the best state for all around weather experiences. Noresters every year (snow), hurricanes/tropical storms every year, tornadoes every year, drought every year, floods every year, extreme heat every year, highest mountains east of miss. river beach only 4 hours from mountains. For instance 79 fayetteville nc yesterday, 105+ without heat index fri-sun. Same city had beryl a few weeks ago with flodding, now its moving back into drought, and next week it looks very stormy. basically best place on earth,. HAHHA!
12z CMC stays with wave but without developing it.

Link
Ok I'm ready for some sun now...
A fairly vigorous low level spin exists with the wave in the Central Atlantic. The spin is located around 10.5N 37.0W. It is embedded in an area of less SAL. The moisture content is also high, but I have to wonder how much is associated with any attachment to the ITCZ. Regardless, it is a fairly healthy wave, especially for June. I would not count it out just yet. Sometimes, models weigh in on climatology and kill these early season developments too quickly. The chances of development are low, but with such a vigorous low level spin all the way to 500mb I would keep a wary eye out east.

SAL:

Water Vapor:
1191. pottery

Those Firestorms in Colorado are Horrible.
Here is a Musical Firestorm, Much better than the real thing.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 90 MILES
EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE..IF ANY...SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Quoting weatherh98:


you may have to eat crow on here for saying that.HIDE!!!
Why??? i didn`t say it in a bad way I don`t want my country affected nor I want other countries affected.
Go to this loop and look at the coordinates I listed above to see the center.
Thanks pcola57; I submitted a ticket. I'm too awed by Dr. Masters and his site to think someone is messing with it. We have enough to clean up here in Hudson after Debby - even the NoName Storm of '93 didn't do this - without getting fearful temp forecasts like that! 102 with fog??
No way Debby gets retired. If she had lingered over Florida till Saturday or turned back west, then she would have dumped epic amounts and been retired. Debby is headed due east or so NHC says, she's going to turn back NE soon and follow her blob action out to sea. If the circulation, which is all that's really left of Debby, did decide to go SE then what would happen? Wouldn't she die off or would she then be in conditions that would allow her to fire convection again? I think it's a mute question, no way she continues SE, but it's not an impossibility. Any models show a SE movement in their predictions for Debby's path?
Live Oak Florida is inundated with flooding much like it was in 1964 by hurricane Dora.
I'm able to access the WU no problem, but the site is having issues with some of their features. Anyone else having any issues?
1199. ncstorm
Debby will likely not be retired,
Allison caused devastation in texas and other states, I mean yeah I know Debby might be devastating but probably not as devastating as Allison.
The death toll for Allison was also the reason for retirement,
Allison killed 41 direct, 14 indirect.
That's the reason it was retired.
IMO, not to be a downer to Debby,
She will probably not be retired.
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


neither. North Carolina is the best state for all around weather experiences. Noresters every year (snow), hurricanes/tropical storms every year, tornadoes every year, drought every year, floods every year, extreme heat every year, highest mountains east of miss. river beach only 4 hours from mountains. For instance 79 fayetteville nc yesterday, 105+ without heat index fri-sun. Same city had beryl a few weeks ago with flodding, now its moving back into drought, and next week it looks very stormy. basically best place on earth,. HAHHA!


we get snow in north louisiana
weve had more hurricanes
Link

we get about twice as many tornadoes 25-13
yall? flood? LOL we get a flood every week... had one last week actually.

whoneeds mountains when you have hills? beach? yea we got beaches
according to the cencus, we have 7721 miles of coastline, NC has 3375. also twice as much....

so as i said we were flooding a few weeks ago? our grass is brown now id take a pic but i dont have a camera now.

its currently forecasted to be 99 today oooohhh yea
well actually that aint bad, but the humidity from the samp is... Do yall have swamps up there?

basically NC is the second best place, to LOUISIANA

1203. LargoFl
what were those shore acres homeowners thinking when they refused this help to stop their flooding?..a very Bad choice back then, they are suffering now from flooding and maybe would not be..................Over the past 12 years, the city has poured more money into Shore Acres for flood control projects than any other neighborhood, more than $6.1-million, said Mike Conners, the city’s administrator of internal services.The efforts have all but eliminated routine flooding from high tides. But nothing can prevent the flooding from storms, Conners said.


Except maybe a levee, an idea proposed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in 1989 but soundly rejected by waterfront homeowners.
Quoting Tribucanes:
I'm able to access the WU no problem, but the site is having issues with some of their features. Anyone else having any issues?


had
Caribbean Storm Update June 27 2012


img src="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yufbNYGPiHQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player">

Link
1206. VINNY04
Quoting allancalderini:
Thank God I don+t want a hurricane affecting my country.
Why not? They are quite fun.
TPW loop shows that the Central Atlantic wave is currently in the process of departing from the ITCZ.

Quoting PRweathercenter:
Caribbean Storm Update June 27 2012


img src="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yufbNYGPiHQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player"&g t;

Link

Dude. Really?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


we may see 20% soon
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


neither. North Carolina is the best state for all around weather experiences. Noresters every year (snow), hurricanes/tropical storms every year, tornadoes every year, drought every year, floods every year, extreme heat every year, highest mountains east of miss. river beach only 4 hours from mountains. For instance 79 fayetteville nc yesterday, 105 without heat index fri-sun. Same city had beryl a few weeks ago with flodding, now its moving back into drought, and next week it looks very stormy. basically best place on earth,. HAHHA!
Well, if it's a range of stormy weather and geography you'd want, California likely has most states beat. Blizzards; avalanches; flash floods; area floods; massive ocean storms; hailstorms; tornadoes; dust storms; droughts; hard freezes; some of the densest fogs on the planet; the occasional Pineapple Express event; the highest and lowest spots in the entire Lower 48; deserts, mountains, rivers, and big cities all within an hour or less of each other; not to mention the hottest temperature ever recorded. (And since this is about weather, I won't mention earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes). I've personally experienced temperatures over 100 in a valley, while literally 15 minutes away at the ocean people were bundling up in the 50s. And I've snow skiied and surfed in the ocean on the same day. In fact, in the same afternoon. It's hard to find that elsewhere in the US.

Yes: California FTW. (Though if you were talking about nations instead of states, I think Japan would be at or very near the top of the list.)
1211. ncstorm
115 degrees..CRAZY!!

From NWS, Wilmington, NC

THIS
WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES
AND CLOSER TO 110 FURTHER INLAND. SOME PLACES MAY SEE APPARENT TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 115 DEGREES AS SEA BREEZE CARRIES IN HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. SHOULD EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1212. gator23
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Its a Caribbean runner type season, but steering patterns would put every runner into the Yucatan or Gulf coast.
Gulf coast you better look out...


There is a speed bump between the Caribbean and the Gulf. It has about 19 million people on it. But yea who cares. LOOK OUT GULF!
Couple days ago someone threatened to attack WU. Which boggles the mind, who would want to target this great site and why? It just makes very little sense. Troll who would go to that extent should be prosecuted if they can be caught.
Caribbean Storm Update




Link
Quoting MississippiWx:
A fairly vigorous low level spin exists with the wave in the Central Atlantic. The spin is located around 10.5N 37.0W. It is embedded in an area of less SAL. The moisture content is also high, but I have to wonder how much is associated with any attachment to the ITCZ. Regardless, it is a fairly healthy wave, especially for June. I would not count it out just yet. Sometimes, models weigh in on climatology and kill these early season developments too quickly. The chances of development are low, but with such a vigorous low level spin all the way to 500mb I would keep a wary eye out east.

SAL:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE. jpg

Water Vapor:


Yeah, I was looking at the wave just now.

It appears to have gained both in amplitude and size.

Once we get about half the system past the 45 degree line we'll have a much better idea what's going to happen with it.
Quoting plutorising:
but they're both considered trolls?



I am not Tazmanian, Tazmaniad, or a troll
Whether or not Tazmaniad is a troll, i dont know.
I dont think he is though, based on how he suonded when he first came on, but his name is suspicious.
It is also understandable if he came from Coles Bay as he said
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dude. Really?


Sorry, im on my tablet right now
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, if it's a range of stormy weather and geography you'd want, California likely has most states beat. Blizzards; avalanches; flash floods; area floods; massive ocean storms; hailstorms; tornadoes; dust storms; droughts; hard freezes; the occasional Pineapple Express event; the highest and lowest spots in the entire Lower 48; deserts, mountains, rivers, and big cities all within an hour or less of each other; not to mention the hottest temperature ever recorded. (And since this is about weather, I won't mention earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes). I've personally experienced temperatures over 100 in a valley, while literally 15 minutes away at the ocean people were bundling up in the 50s. It's hard to find that elsewhere in the US.

Yes: California FTW. (Though if you were talking about nations instead of states, I think Japan would be at or very near the top of the list.)


what about rain tornadoes and canes?

Louisiana has below sea leveland above too.

California is disqualified
Quoting VINNY04:
Why not? They are quite fun.
I know but every time a hurricane pass near here not even near here because a example is when Carlotta forms in the eastern pacific the local newspaper was saying that it would make landfall and people should be prepare and all that stuff and at the end Carlotta made landfall in Mexico.
Another limiting factor for the Central ATL wave is the very marginal SSTs which are only in the 26C range.

1221. VINNY04
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


neither. North Carolina is the best state for all around weather experiences. Noresters every year (snow), hurricanes/tropical storms every year, tornadoes every year, drought every year, floods every year, extreme heat every year, highest mountains east of miss. river beach only 4 hours from mountains. For instance 79 fayetteville nc yesterday, 105+ without heat index fri-sun. Same city had beryl a few weeks ago with flodding, now its moving back into drought, and next week it looks very stormy. basically best place on earth,. HAHHA!
I disagree. I will go with Florida as being the best state. We have beaches on THREE sides plus some islands down south. It doesnt get too hot. Just 108 sometimes. No snow in most of the state. And plenty of alligators. Who cant like that? Anyone agree?
1222. gator23
Quoting VINNY04:
Why not? They are quite fun.


Mother nature has obviously not tried to kill you that way that she tried to kill me(andrew). If so you wouldnt be saying that.
Quoting weatherh98:


we get snow in north louisiana
weve had more hurricanes
Link

we get about twice as many tornadoes 25-13
yall? flood? LOL we get a flood every week... had one last week actually.

whoneeds mountains when you have hills? beach? yea we got beaches
according to the cencus, we have 7721 miles of coastline, NC has 3375. also twice as much....

so as i said we were flooding a few weeks ago? our grass is brown now id take a pic but i dont have a camera now.

its currently forecasted to be 99 today oooohhh yea
well actually that aint bad, but the humidity from the samp is... Do yall have swamps up there?

basically NC is the second best place, to LOUISIANA



yall get 1/2 inch snow storms we get 2 feet snowstorms, your beaches are swamps that have sand spits at the edge of the gulf that arent pretty, our beaches are white sand barrier island that go on for thousands of miles that millions of people actually use, and you flood because you are bascially sea level. We have the great dismal swamp, bascially east of i-95 is a swamp... although i do love how if it wasnt for Louisiana nat geo, a&e, animal planet,and discovery basically wouldnt exist today. i want to visit louisiana, it is a very interesting place! where are you in LA
Whether this becomes a tropical cyclone or not, it should peak in organization on Friday. After that, wind shear will tear it apart. May become organized enough to attain invest status.

1225. ncstorm
12z Euro running

Quoting VINNY04:
I disagree. I will go with Florida as being the best state. We have beaches on THREE sides plus some islands down south. It doesnt get too hot. Just 108 sometimes. No snow in most of the state. And plenty of alligators. Who cant like that? Anyone agree?


No hills or mountains disqualified...

Louisiana is still on top
Quoting Tribucanes:
Best state to live in................New Jersey! :) What's the definition of safe sex in New Jersey?.............Placing signs on the animals that kick. Love you New Jersey, but your an easy target! :)

weather not snooki.
(click to enlarge)
1230. nigel20
Good afternoon everyone!
Quoting VINNY04:
I disagree. I will go with Florida as being the best state. We have beaches on THREE sides plus some islands down south. It doesnt get too hot. Just 108 sometimes. No snow in most of the state. And plenty of alligators. Who cant like that? Anyone agree?


i was saying for all around weather experiences, if we were talking best weather for beaching/drinking yes florida wins, otherwise NOT.
Quoting weatherbro:
Well it looks like Debby might give us a parting gift after all!!!

Debby's tight circulation is forecasted to bring drier air down the spine of the peninsula by tonight. Which means those lower dewpoints over north Florida and Georgia will be payin' us a visit by tomorrow!

Plus it appears Orlando and Tampa will get a much deserved break on the rain department until at least the second week of July!

Even though it's the rainy season down here, this is actually some great news! I wouldn't want afternoon convection rubbing salt to the wound now.


I wouldn't mind if the normal rainy season picked up where Debby left off going forward, at least here in Orlando. Two + weeks of no rain and the resulting temps in the mid 90s each day is not the norm in the heart of our rainy season.
1233. VINNY04
Quoting gator23:


Mother nature has obviously not tried to kill you that way that she tried to kill me(andrew). If so you wouldnt be saying that.
True. I didnt think of that. I havent been in one that big. Charlie came close to us and would have killed Tampa Bay if it hadnt been for the pressure system that forced it to make landfall south of us. I guess my view would change on hurricanes too if i almost got killed by one. So i dont blame you.
I found this to be pretty interesting. The tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) chart shows a very high amount of heat in the Central Pacific at the equator. If you don't remember, the heat potential accounts for the amount of heat at great depths in the ocean. This is the TCHP anomaly map which shows a bull's-eye in the Central Pacific. Why is that interesting? Well, we have been discussing the possibility of a Modiki El Nino coming in the latter half of hurricane season into the winter months. This just might be an indication of what is to come. Just a thought.

Best weather should include a state that experiences all four seasons. And it's so speculative. Some states have fairly great weather year round, but it's crazy hot. Some states in the Midwest have beautiful seasons but Winter can be brutal and Summer sweltering too. Virginia/Michigan/California would be up there for me. Southern California if we can name a specific part of a state would probably take the cake hands down.
1236. VINNY04
Quoting allancalderini:
I know but every time a hurricane pass near here not even near here because a example is when Carlotta forms in the eastern pacific the local newspaper was saying that it would make landfall and people should be prepare and all that stuff and at the end Carlotta made landfall in Mexico.
Yah thats the one problem with living where i am. I want some storms ( not too big mind you) but they always move away from Tampa.
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yall get 1/2 inch snow storms we get 2 feet snowstorms, your beaches are swamps that have sand spits at the edge of the gulf that arent pretty, our beaches are white sand barrier island that go on for thousands of miles that millions of people actually use, and you flood because you are bascially sea level. We have the great dismal swamp, bascially east of i-95 is a swamp... although i do love how if it wasnt for Louisiana nat geo, a&e, animal planet,and discovery basically wouldnt exist today. i want to visit louisiana, it is a very interesting place! where are you in LA


Mandeville, Louisiana.

north of new orleans and east of Baton Rouge

on the edge of Lake Pontchartrain...

they have a beach not 2 mils from my house that everyone uses. Theres no reason that our relation to sea level should be point deducting for flooding!

atchaalaya basin baby. wiki fact
Atchafalaya Swamp at the lower end of the Mississippi River is the largest swamp in the United States. It is an important example of southern cypress swamp
Quoting Tribucanes:
Best weather should include a state that experiences all four seasons. And it's so speculative. Some states have fairly great weather year round, but it's crazy hot. Some states in the Midwest have beautiful seasons but Winter can be brutal and Summer sweltering too. Virginia/Michigan/California would be up there for me. Southern California if we can name a specific part of a state would probably take the cake hands down.


yes even more reason for N.C. to be at the top it clearly has a definitive seasonal change 4 times each year
1239. nigel20
Quoting MississippiWx:
I found this to be pretty interesting. The tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) chart shows a very high amount of heat in the Central Pacific at the equator. If you don't remember, the heat potential accounts for the amount of heat at great depths in the ocean. This is the TCHP anomaly map shows a bull's-eye in the Central Pacific. Why is that interesting? Well, we have been discussing the possibility of a Modiki El Nino coming in the latter half of hurricane season into the winter months. This just might be an indication of what is to come. Just a thought.


Yeah, that's very interesting...thanks for the info, Mississippi.
Quoting weatherh98:


Mandeville, Louisiana.

north of new orleans and east of Baton Rouge

on the edge of Lake Pontchartrain...

they have a beach not 2 mils from my house that everyone uses. Theres no reason that our relation to sea level should be point deducting for flooding!

atchaalaya basin baby. wiki fact
Atchafalaya Swamp at the lower end of the Mississippi River is the largest swamp in the United States. It is an important example of southern cypress swamp


Lol. Sorry, Louisiana is not the state for most amazing weather. It would be a state out west or in the Plains.
Fresh ASCAT BOC
1242. VINNY04
Quoting weatherh98:


No hills or mountains disqualified...

Louisiana is still on top
Can phosphate mining hills count?
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. Sorry, Louisiana is not the state for most amazing weather. It would be a state out west or in the Plains.


they dont get canes? lol
its pretty much an extremes argument
Quoting VINNY04:
Can phosphate mining hills count?


no!!
With all the flooding Florida has seen becuase of Tropical Storm Debby, it's reprehensible that Senator Rand Paul is holding up the flood insurance program:

Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yes even more reason for N.C. to be at the top it clearly has a definitive seasonal change 4 times each year


who needs winter when youcn have an extended summer and aspring that starts january 21?
The ones that warrant a circle in the Central/East Atlantic in the early portions of the season are usually the ones that develop in the west Caribbean. I'm not saying this one will though.

1248. VINNY04
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i was saying for all around weather experiences, if we were talking best weather for beaching/drinking yes florida wins, otherwise NOT.
We do have tornados and hail. we have snow, hurricanes, heat, and cold. Plus we do have LOTS of lightning. Perfect State in my opinion.
I grew up in Wilson N.C. N.C is great but the heat and humidity in the summer is oppressive at times. Severe weather during the outbreak of last April really pounded the Carolina's too. Hurricanes like to target N.C and it gets just cold enough in Northern N.C to bust pipes at times in Winter. The winters are beautiful in N.C, you get just enough snow but the temps are so nice in the winter compared to where I'm now in Northern Wisconsin. North Carolina has to be in the top ten I would think.
1250. pcola57
Quoting seawitch1261:
With all the flooding Florida has seen becuase of Tropical Storm Debby, it's reprehensible that Senator Rand Paul is holding up the flood insurance program:



Please link us at it's not applicable to this blog but I am very interested if what you state is true.. :)

Edit: After a re-read it is semi applicable..just sounds political :)
Quoting weatherh98:


they dont get canes? lol
its pretty much an extremes argument


That's true. Being from MS, I can attest to what a major hurricane can do to a coast line. Our entire coast line (no joke) looked exactly like this after Katrina. Thank God these type of storms are very uncommon. I guess if you went by frequency of extreme weather, West Coast states and Plains states would win. Gulf Coast states/Atlantic states could possibly experience the most widespread devastation from a weather event due to hurricanes.

1252. VINNY04
Quoting weatherh98:


no!!
Yah your right. Thats the only flaw in this state. If you can call it a flaw. Second best stae is either Alabama or North Carolina.
WMO just upped El Nino's chances to 60%!
Quoting VINNY04:
We do have tornados and hail. we have snow, hurricanes, heat, and cold. Plus we do have LOTS of lightning. Perfect State in my opinion.


snow? yeah whats the state record an inch?
The blast furnace continues, shifted a bit to the east from yesterday. Again, every station in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas should see triple digits today, along with many/most stations in Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana. The good news (if there is any): fire-weary Colorado should be slightly cooler today (though that's a relative term; it'll still be very hot, with a wide swath of 100-degree-plus temps in the eastern third of the state).

Hill City, KS, was already at 111 as of 1:00 PM.

hit
Re: #1234, what would a Modiki El Nino mean for winter in the U.S? (Great comment & graphic, BTW, MississippiWX!)
Quoting weatherbro:
WMO just upped El Nino's chances to 60%!


Pretty bold statement considering Nino 3.4 is at 0.4C already. LOL.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Pretty bold statement considering Nino 3.4 is at 0.4C already. LOL.
im really hoping we dont get one i hate el nino
Quoting weatherbro:
WMO just upped El Nino's chances to 60%!

LOL. Shouldn't that be more like 99%?
Quoting weatherh98:


who needs winter when youcn have an extended summer and aspring that starts january 21?


Some individuals, such as myself, enjoy cold weather (and rain for that matter), though I know I am in the minority. That said, I would not want to live somewhere where it is cold year-round.

Today seems like a transition day in Orlando, weather-wise. No rain, and mostly cloudy. We received a grand total of 3.8" from Debby over the past 5 days. Looks like mid-90s are on the way for us this weekend.
ATCF says Debby is a tropical storm again with the increase in winds, though pressure has risen as well:

AL, 04, 2012062718, , BEST, 0, 295N, 794W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0,
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

LOL. Shouldn't that be more like 99%?
not exactly remember the cold pdo is still there which is preventing rapid development of an el nino so im thinking in september they will declare an el nino which is why this season will be slightly above normal
Edited post as Nea posted the 18z Best Track.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #1234, what would a Modiki El Nino mean for winter in the U.S? (Great comment & graphic, BTW, MississippiWX!)


First things first. I spelled it wrong. It's Modoki El Nino, so I wanted to correct that first. :-)

To answer your question, Modoki El Nino events normally signal a much cooler winter for the United States. Also, Modoki events can take El Nino's most harmful effects on hurricanes away from the tropical breeding grounds of the Atlantic. In other words, shear would not be as high as you would think during an El Nino year. If it were to verify, we might not have as much of an effect from El Nino as we previously believed.
The heat is on, to say the least. GREarth says temperatures across Kansas are near 115 °F!

It's all spreading east...



Should be near 100 °F from the weekend on. You know what that means? I'm staying my butt indoors or in the pool.
Quoting MississippiWx:


That's true. Being from MS, I can attest to what a major hurricane can do to a coast line. Our entire coast line (no joke) looked exactly like this after Katrina. Thank God these type of storms are very uncommon. I guess if you went by frequency of extreme weather, West Coast states and Plains states would win. Gulf Coast states/Atlantic states could possibly experience the most widespread devastation from a weather event due to hurricanes.



aint gotta tell me, im bout 30 miles from the landfall point
Quoting MississippiWx:


First things first. I spelled it wrong. It's Modoki El Nino, so I wanted to correct that first. :-)

To answer your question, Modoki El Nino events normally signal a much cooler winter for the United States. Also, Modoki events can take El Nino's most harmful effects on hurricanes away from the tropical breeding grounds of the Atlantic. In other words, shear would not be as high as you would think during an El Nino year. If it were to verify, we might not have as much of an effect from El Nino as we previously believed.


what the freaki is a modoki el nino?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

LOL. Shouldn't that be more like 99%?


no what if el nino takes too long to set in fully?

I love el nino, it brings snow to GA and actually has severe weather that doesnt die to the AL -> GA state line curse.
In fact, for the last 5 years, with el nino, last year the la nina, was the only one without snow.
It is rare for it to snow so many years in a row though.
One day i will get my dad to go to the NE for a blizzard
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The heat is on, to say the least. GREarth says temperatures across Kansas are near 115 °F!

It's all spreading east...



Should be near 100 °F from the weekend on. You know what that means? I'm staying my butt indoors or in the pool.


indoors, no pool. thosee are close to 90 now which is no relief
1270. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The heat is on, to say the least. GREarth says temperatures across Kansas are near 115 °F!

It's all spreading east...



Should be near 100 °F from the weekend on. You know what that means? I'm staying my butt indoors or in the pool.

I'm happy that i live on a island, as i couldn't deal with that level of heat.
So far the ENSO obs have the warmest anomalies over on the east side. In contrast to this time 3 years ago. So I'm not sold on a Modoki yet.:)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The heat is on, to say the least. GREarth says temperatures across Kansas are near 115 °F!

It's all spreading east...



Should be near 100 °F from the weekend on. You know what that means? I'm staying my butt indoors or in the pool.


yah, keep your butt indoors,but take the rest of your body elsewhere.
Your pool is also probably way too hot, or maybe it is just me and wh98 because we work out in pools instead of playing.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
im really hoping we dont get one i hate el nino

Why do you hate el nino?
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


what the freaki is a modoki el nino?

A Modoki El Nino is when the majority of the warm Sea Surface Temperatures/Ocean Heat Content consolidates in the Central Pacific as opposed to the East Pacific. This limits the amount of ordinary convection in the East Pacific that we would otherwise see in a typical El Nino. The Atlantic basin is typically quiet during regular El Nino's because the outflow from the convection in the EPAC causes high wind shear across the basin.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no what if el nino takes too long to set in fully?

I love el nino, it brings snow to GA and actually has severe weather that doesnt die to the AL -> GA state line curse.
In fact, for the last 5 years, with el nino, last year the la nina, was the only one without snow.
It is rare for it to snow so many years in a row though.
One day i will get my dad to go to the NE for a blizzard

me too

im not getting georgia as a top state,

Im hearing florida cali nc and new jersey(because of snooki) and LOUISIANA
1276. 7544
can anyone tell if this big spin thats gettin some convection and bands to the south is debby and if it is is it moving se thanks

Link
Hi everyone. Any models hinting at any storms in near future?
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


what the freaki is a modoki el nino?


Well, you just quoted what Modoki's normally do. However, if you're wondering what causes the difference then a Modoki El Nino has the highest anomalies in the Central Pacific. A normal El Nino has the highest anomalies in the Eastern Pacific. The graphic below shows a Modoki El Nino:

Quoting weatherh98:

me too

im not getting georgia as a top state,

Im hearing florida cali nc and new jersey(because of snooki) and LOUISIANA


dont forget TX
Quoting 7544:
can anyone tell if this big spin thats gettin some convection and bands to the south is debby thanks

Link

Yes, that is Debby.
Quoting weatherh98:


we get snow in north louisiana
weve had more hurricanes
Link

we get about twice as many tornadoes 25-13
yall? flood? LOL we get a flood every week... had one last week actually.

whoneeds mountains when you have hills? beach? yea we got beaches
according to the cencus, we have 7721 miles of coastline, NC has 3375. also twice as much....

so as i said we were flooding a few weeks ago? our grass is brown now id take a pic but i dont have a camera now.

its currently forecasted to be 99 today oooohhh yea
well actually that aint bad, but the humidity from the samp is... Do yall have swamps up there?

basically NC is the second best place, to LOUISIANA



Best place to live... hands down is in Central VA. The weather never gets too extreme here... granted we do get our fair share of wild weather every now and then but we rarely if at all have a natural disaster that causes major damage. We do have hurricanes but almost all of them were minor brushes. We do recieve tornadoes but most are weak (EFO or EF1). As far as winter is concerned... we do usually have one decent snowfall per year (4" or more). It's pretty seasonal and calm around here.
Quoting jeffs713:

Why do you hate el nino?
typically el ninos ruin activity in the atlantic basin and im a big fan of tracking storms in the atlantic. boy 2010 and 2011 were fun and thankfully we only had one bad storm in those 2 years and that was irene. east pacific storms are boring for me because they form and become strong fast and then as soon as they form they die out although celia in 2010 was a beauty. modoki el ninos are different. its like neutral conditions in the atlantic meaning high wind shear is unlikely (2004)
I can see why they upgraded Debby again. Look at the wind barbs.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The heat is on, to say the least. GREarth says temperatures across Kansas are near 115 °F!

It's all spreading east...



Should be near 100 °F from the weekend on. You know what that means? I'm staying my butt indoors or in the pool.


but GA is staying cool!!
it sucks living in a calm state.
for a hot state, making it to 100 degrees is a big deal here.
Record high ever in atlanta is 105 and it was in july.
1285. nigel20
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


what the freaki is a modoki el nino?

Modoki is the japanese word for same, but different. el nino "Modiki" also known as central pacific el nino occurs when the SST's in the central pacific are warmer than those in the eastern pacific.
1286. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, that is Debby.


thanks trop is it moving se too you
Quoting weatherh98:

me too

im not getting georgia as a top state,

Im hearing florida cali nc and new jersey(because of snooki) and LOUISIANA


jersey? haha...those hobokens...im sorry but that state is a dump for new york city! gross!
Quoting 7544:


thanks trop is it moving se too you

Looks northeast.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


but GA is staying cool!!
it sucks living in a calm state.
for a hot state, making it to 100 degrees is a big deal here.
Record high ever in atlanta is 105 and it was in july.


reminds me of a song.... by jimmy buffet
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Debby is a tropical storm again with the increase in winds, though pressure has risen as well:

AL, 04, 2012062718, , BEST, 0, 295N, 794W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0,


It looks better on ESL and on Melbourne radar, though radar can't really see inside.

At least there is a CoC and spiral banding again, which it really lost late last night.
just curious. what month will noaa officially declare el nino? i say september
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


jersey? haha...those hobokens...im sorry but that state is a dump for new york city! gross!


one guy said it not me
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can see why they upgraded Debby again. Look at the wind barbs.



is this map not overlayed correctly?
the COC is not in the convection!!
or are you at a different level? 500mb?
It's a perfect pool day, so I'm out for now. :-) Take care, everyone.
Quoting MississippiWx:
It's a perfect pool day, so I'm out for now. :-) Take care, everyone.


you have no idea how wrong you could be.
If you come back warmer, sweatier, and thirstier than you left, ill be LMFAO
Quoting MississippiWx:
It's a perfect pool day, so I'm out for now. :-) Take care, everyone.


pools are too hot
Gosh! It's going to be hot this week. (especially tomorrow)


Wouldn't be a bad idea to head to the pool. =)


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is this map not overlayed correctly?
the COC is not in the convection!!
or are you at a different level? 500mb?

No, they're 10 meter winds and they're overlaid correctly. I think there has been a center reformation.
Hurricane Audrey June 27, 1957

Just about everyone who lives in or grew up across Southern Louisiana and Southeast Texas knows the story of Hurricane Audrey, whether it was stories their parents or grandparents passed on, or literature they read within the history books. To commemorate the 50th anniversary of the deadliest natural disaster in the history of Southwest Louisiana, the City of Cameron and Cameron Parish government hosted a memorial service on June 27th, 2007, dedicated to the victims of Hurricane Audrey. The National Weather Service participated in this event with an informative booth highlighting various meteorological data from Hurricane Audrey.

During the early morning hours of June 27, 1957, an early season hurricane named Audrey roared ashore into Southwest Louisiana and Southeastern Texas. Audrey spread a massive storm surge across most of Cameron parish, and across the southern halves of Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary parishes, causing total devastation in property and many lives lost. Figure 1 displays the areas inundated with selected high water mark levels. Figure 2 illustrates a post storm SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model of Audrey's passage, with an animation available in 15 minute increments.


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you have no idea how wrong you could be.
If you come back warmer, sweatier, and thirstier than you left, ill be LMFAO

we already tried that lol
Well that didnt work out so well. I'll try again.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, they're 10 meter winds and they're overlay-ed correctly. I think there has been a center reformation.


maybe but there should still be some semblance of the old circulation:
Quoting westpalmer:
The green monster "Debby the Dragon" is forcefully pulled away while she breathes out her flaming heat which smolders in the record rainfall over the northern part of the State:
   img src="data:image/jpeg;base64,/9j/4AAQSkZJRgABAQEASA BIAAD/2wBDAAIBAQIBAQICAgICAgICAwUDAwMDAwYEBAMFBwYH BwcGBwcICQsJCAgKCAcHCg0KCgsMDAwMBwkODw0MDgsMDAz/2w BDAQICAgMDAwYDAwYMCAcIDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwM DAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDAz/wAARCAPABQ ADASIAAhEBAxEB/8QAHwAAAQUBAQEBAQEAAAAAAAAAAAECAwQF BgcICQoL/8QAtRAAAgEDAwIEAwUFBAQAAAF9AQIDAAQRBRIhMU EGE1FhByJxFDKBkaEII0KxwRVS0fAkM2JyggkKFhcYGRolJico KSo0NTY3ODk6Q0RFRkdISUpTVFVWV1hZWmNkZWZnaGlqc3R1dn d.......


You fail.
Rotate your computer 90 degrees and try again.
1305. 7544
thanks again but you have to ask the question hmmmm debby what are u up too now she is full of suprises and not done yet as most are saying imo
Quoting Ameister12:
Gosh! It's going to be hot this week. (especially tomorrow)


Wouldn't be a bad idea to head to the pool. =)




YES IT WOULD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The heat is on, to say the least. GREarth says temperatures across Kansas are near 115 °F!

It's all spreading east...



Should be near 100 °F from the weekend on. You know what that means? I'm staying my butt indoors or in the pool.

Oh come on, it's not that bad. I work in this heat almost every day and had a pretty epic Ultimate Frisbee Tournament yesterday. Just make sure you drink plenty of water and you'll be fine (we went through several cases yesterday).
Quoting Ameister12:
Gosh! It's going to be hot this week. (especially tomorrow)


Wouldn't be a bad idea to head to the pool. =)





YES IT WOULD!!!!!!

you just dont understand
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Oh come on, it's not that bad. I work in this heat almost every day and had a pretty epic Ultimate Frisbee Tournament yesterday. Just make sure you drink plenty of water and you'll be fine (we went through several cases yesterday).

I hate water.
1311. rxse7en
Quoting weatherh98:


pools are too hot
Debby lowered my pool temp to 64º F! Heat wave should warm it back up. Just drove around the neighborhood here in Jax near the Intracoastal and the flood waters were marked by debris 4-5' up on people's lawns! Our lake drainage systems caught up with the rain but were up 4-5' too. There's also a creek in my 'hood that's usually very shallow and slow--today it's about 6 feet deep with black/brown water and rapids. If it wasn't for disease, snakes, drowning, poop and debris I'd consider tubing.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



YES IT WOULD!!!!!!

you just dont understand

What don't I understand? =/
To me it appears Debby's circulation is moving southeastward. I see no northern component whatsoever. Here is a question for everyone...what would you do if Debby was left behind by the trough? LOL.
Vis Loop
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hate water.


Mio?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hate water.

Well, that's unfortunate. I can't help you there. Gatorade maybe (we went through a case of those yesterday too)?
1316. 7544
might see a upgrade at 5pm if she can hold on looks like very stong winds in so fla today
Quoting Ameister12:

What don't I understand? =/


trust us.
Live streaming video of the waldo canyon fires.
Link
Link
Another blogger provided the second link I am just re posting.
I threw New Jersey out there as a joke...........Louisiana as a top state, I would have to disagree. Hot, very hot, and burning hot in summer, big hurricanes seems to really like Louisiana too. Northwest Louisiana is technically in tornado alley and the state, as a whole ranks high for states that get tornadoes. If you like the seasons, Louisiana isn't the place either. Top ten places to visit, Louisiana might crack that list. Gulf Coast is so beautiful.
Quoting 7544:
might see a upgrade at 5pm if she can hold on looks like very stong winds in so fla today


It does appear as though Debby will be upgraded at 5:00 pm to a tropical storm again...at least according to the most recent file on the storm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hate water.


WHAAAAT!!!!!
Gatorade isnt good for you to drink all the time.
Water is the best

you gonna have some problems,kid
Id be willing to bet you are dehydrated right now.
1322. HrDelta
Nobody here know how happy I am about the rain here! I'm guessing Debby may regain TS strength shortly?
Quoting weatherh98:


trust us.

Umm. I'd really like to know what I need to understand. O_O
Quoting Ameister12:

What don't I understand? =/


imagine being cooked in a 90Pool

If that sounds unnapealing, stay at home

when you jump in, it probably wont even feel cool
and if you expect to cool at all, you had better stay very inactive, and then the sun will bake you anyway.
And dont even consider playing a game, or swimming and pretending you are phelps or lochte.
Quoting Tribucanes:
I threw New Jersey out there as a joke...........Louisiana as a top state, I would have to disagree. Hot, very hot, and burning hot in summer, big hurricanes seems to really like Louisiana too. Northwest Louisiana is technically in tornado alley and the state, as a whole ranks high for states that get tornadoes. If you like the seasons, Louisiana isn't the place either. Top ten places to visit, Louisiana might crack that list. Gulf Coast is so beautiful.


ITs the happiest state too....

the girls arent from florida but the definitely aint from Mississippi LOL
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


WHAAAAT!!!!!
Gatorade isnt good for you to drink all the time.
Water is the best

you gonna have some problems,kid
Id be willing to bet you are dehydrated right now.

I'm not.
There's a rather largish storm moving toward Colorado Springs from the southwest. It's still hours away, but if it can hold together that might be good. Or not; a microburst from a collapsing storm in the mountains can causing devastating wind gusts to move across the fire area and cause a massive blow-up.

Anyway, a the moment there's no rain in the fire area. From atop Pikes Peak:

fire
I would NEVER make a backwater swamp the top weather state

justsayin
Quoting Ameister12:

Umm. I'd really like to know what I need to understand. O_O


water takes more energy to heat up and cool down than iron. therefore whenever you try to cool off it doesnt work. you sweat in water, a lot. 90 degrees is too hot. its like a soup
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not.


SURE you're not.
Its what everybody says
Link

I wouldn't count Debby out just yet...look at how she is firing thunderstorms on the south end of her center. She seems to be ventilating quite nicely for a tropical depression. She is sitting in an area of decreasing shear, and as it is, it is a moderate 20 kts. We will see her upgraded again to TS at 5:00. Can anyone tell me how she has contributed to this year's ACE?
1333. HrDelta
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's a rather largish storm moving toward Colorado Springs from the southwest. It's still hours away, but if it can hold together that might be good. Or not; microburst from a collapsing storm in the mountains can causing devastating wind gusts to

At the moment, no rain in the fire area. From atop Pikes Peak:

fire


Briargate is getting a relatively good amount of water. The rain is bring down ash from the clouds.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not.


If you dont drink water, you have a lot of sugary drinks, are you obeese?


dehydration is nothing to fool with either
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I would NEVER make a backwater swamp the top weather state

justsayin


You called louisiana a what?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not.

I drink water only when I go outside and it's hot
Quoting Neapolitan:
The blast furnace continues, shifted a bit to the east from yesterday. Again, every station in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas should see triple digits today, along with many/most stations in Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana. The good news (if there is any): fire-weary Colorado should be slightly cooler today (though that's a relative term; it'll still be very hot, with a wide swath of 100-degree-plus temps in the eastern third of the state).

Hill City, KS, was already at 111 as of 1:00 PM.

hit
one saving grace i've noticed is dewpoints are very low... there's a small comfort in knowing the 'feels like' temp is lower than the actual temp :/
those humid blasts are what get me the most, with upper 90's feeling as hot as the actual temps occurring now, when sweating does nothing.. these dewpoints are Not good for the fire situation though.. hoping for that rain you just hinted at!
1338. nigel20
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Link

I wouldn't count Debby out just yet...look at how she is firing thunderstorms on the south end of her center. She seems to be ventilating quite nicely for a tropical depression. She is sitting in an area of decreasing shear, and as it is, it is a moderate 20 kts. We will see her upgraded again to TS at 5:00. Can anyone tell me how she has contributed to this year's ACE?

Debby's ACE: 2.45
Total ACE: 7.41
Quoting weatherh98:


water takes more energy to heat up and cool down than iron. therefore whenever you try to cool off it doesnt work. you sweat in water, a lot. 90 degrees is too hot. its like a soup

Well you learn something new everyday. Thanks for warning me.
Quoting weatherh98:


You called louisiana a beautiful place? Why thank you.
I see you have finally come around
But i know GA is a much nicer place and that TX is better than LA and i just wanted to have some fun pretending LA was even worth considering.



OK
XD
Quoting AllStar17:
To me it appears Debby's circulation is moving southeastward. I see no northern component whatsoever. Here is a question for everyone...what would you do if Debby was left behind by the trough? LOL.
Vis Loop


Interestingly enough, there is some model support for this...it appears as though the BAMM has this solution. I think this is a highly unlikely circumstance, but if it were to happen, BAMM projects Debby to come ashore at about the latitude of Lake Okeechobee.
Quoting Ameister12:

Well you learn something new everyday. Thanks for warning me.


you can go, if its too hot for you leave.
thats all i say

but if you live anywhere but the ohio valley and NE, or the Pac NW, you might have a bad time.
Barely been 90s in GA for a week and it is already too hot.
The Beginning of Debby part 2?
Quoting weatherh98:


If you dont drink water, you have a lot of sugary drinks, are you obeese?


dehydration is nothing to fool with either

I'm nearly 15 and I weigh 100 pounds. Quite the opposite, really.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm nearly 15 and I weigh 100 pounds. I'm quite the opposite, really.


some water to fill you up?
how tall are you?
Im 5 4 and weigh 125 and im just already 15
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:I Love louisiana it has the most extreme weather and all. GA is straight boring.


ya dont say
Quoting Articuno:

I drink water only when I go outside and it's hot


I drink almost a gallon a day if i can
1348. kwgirl
Quoting VINNY04:
I disagree. I will go with Florida as being the best state. We have beaches on THREE sides plus some islands down south. It doesnt get too hot. Just 108 sometimes. No snow in most of the state. And plenty of alligators. Who cant like that? Anyone agree?
HEY! Those "some Islands" ARE Florida. Everything else is south Georgia.:)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


some water to fill you up?
how tall are you?
Im 5 4 and weigh 125 and im just already 15

Same height as you.
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Link

I wouldn't count Debby out just yet...look at how she is firing thunderstorms on the south end of her center...





Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm nearly 15 and I weigh 100 pounds. Quite the opposite, really.

lean mean swimming machine. I nearly ouble your weight. Im 185 and 6 3.

okay i lift weights too but hey
Anybody keep getting this?

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


some water to fill you up?
how tall are you?
Im 5 4 and weigh 125 and im just already 15


puberty bro
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody keep getting this?



wunderground is slow right now but no
let me try again:


Quoting weatherh98:

lean mean swimming machine. I nearly ouble your weight. Im 185 and 6 3.

okay i lift weights too but hey


you are almost a foot taller than me.
i am a lean mean machine too

BTW what are the problems people keep saying they are having with wunderground, i havent had any
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody keep getting this?


I'm using Chrome , but I'm not seeing that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody keep getting this?


I am not using chrome. :)
1360. 7544
no
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Same height as you.


think you should eat a lot more and drink a lot more water.
soon youll be a lean mean machine too.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you are almost a foot taller than me.
i am a lean mean machine too

BTW what are the problems people keep saying they are having with wunderground, i havent had any


I am not really having any, someone threatened to bring down the site but i dont think it willl happen.

6 6 wingspan and a size 15 shoe

im made to swim
Quoting Ameister12:

No.
Quoting weatherh98:


wunderground is slow right now but no

Strange. Shows it every other time I refresh.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


think you should eat a lot more and drink a lot more water.
soon youll be a lean mean machine too.


get a weight machine TA13 that helps
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Strange. Shows it every other time I refresh.


mine is just slower. I dont know what the problem is
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody keep getting this?



nope, i just switched to chrome and have no problem
-written from chrome
I'm definitely getting in the pool everyday for the next week.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039 -053>056-280200-
/O.NEW.KILM.EH.A.0001.120629T1800Z-120630T2200Z/
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARI ON-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...
WHITEVILLE...BURGAW...SURF CITY...TOPSAIL BEACH...WILMINGTON...
CAROLINA BEACH...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...LELAND...BOLIVIA...
SHALLOTTE...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...HOLDEN BEACH...OAK ISLAND...
SOUTHPORT...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON.. .FLORENCE...
MARION...KINGSTREE...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...
GARDEN CITY...ANDREWS...GEORGETOWN...MURRELLS INLET
200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102 AND 107 DEGREES
FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 105 AND 112 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAT OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN TRIGGER HEAT EXHAUSTION OR
EVEN HEAT STROKE. THE BODIES ABILITY TO KEEP ITSELF COOLED CAN
BREAK DOWN DUE TO CIRCULATORY AND CHEMICAL CHANGES WHEN EXPOSED
TO EXTREME HEAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS .STAY OUT OF THE SUNSHINE IN THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. MAY SURE PETS HAVE
PLENTY WATER. PLEASE DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN IN THE CAR UNATTENDED.

&&

$$
Quoting weatherh98:


I am not really having any, someone threatened to bring down the site but i dont think it willl happen.

6 6 wingspan and a size 15 shoe

im made to swim


good for you, soon youll pass me and be faster.
Youll be 6 7 by the time you are done growing.
Now go get lochte and phelps XD

which if you do, on a weather related note, means you wouldnt have time to be a met.
Quoting weatherh98:


water takes more energy to heat up and cool down than iron. therefore whenever you try to cool off it doesnt work. you sweat in water, a lot. 90 degrees is too hot. its like a soup

Um... What?

Your body has a normal temperature range from 97.6-99.6 F. Sweat is produced by your body to cool you via evaporation and transport of heat into water. As your body is in contact with water, the heat is drawn away from it as long as the water is colder than your body temp. You *can* get dehydrated in a swimming pool, but it takes either an extremely long time, or water with a greater concentration of solutes than your own body fluids (it can occur in swimming pools, but is actually rather common in ocean water over extended periods).

So unless you are in water that is greater than your body temp (highly unlikely), you are going to experience cooling by taking a swim at the pool. Also, due to the proximity of the pool and its' microclimate (due to evaporation), it will actually be cooler at the pool than it would be 50 feet away in the parking lot.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm definitely getting in the pool everyday for the next week.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033- 039 -053>056-280200-
/O.NEW.KILM.EH.A.0001.120629T1800Z-120630T2200Z/
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARI ON-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...
WHITEVILLE...BURGAW...SURF CITY...TOPSAIL BEACH...WILMINGTON...
CAROLINA BEACH...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...LELAND...BOLIVIA...
SHALLOTTE...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...HOLDEN BEACH...OAK ISLAND...
SOUTHPORT...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON.. .FLORENCE...
MARION...KINGSTREE...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...
GARDEN CITY...ANDREWS...GEORGETOWN...MURRELLS INLET
200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102 AND 107 DEGREES
FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 105 AND 112 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAT OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN TRIGGER HEAT EXHAUSTION OR
EVEN HEAT STROKE. THE BODIES ABILITY TO KEEP ITSELF COOLED CAN
BREAK DOWN DUE TO CIRCULATORY AND CHEMICAL CHANGES WHEN EXPOSED
TO EXTREME HEAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS .STAY OUT OF THE SUNSHINE IN THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. MAY SURE PETS HAVE
PLENTY WATER. PLEASE DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN IN THE CAR UNATTENDED.

&&

$$


*Facepalm*

do you listen to people who know what they are talking about
1371. 7544
lets see at the 5pm if debbie is moving sse or se looks that way the last couple of hours and getting some more convection now
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


good for you, soon youll pass me and be faster.
Youll be 6 7 by the time you are done growing.
Now go get lochte and phelps XD

which if you do, on a weather related note, means you wouldnt have time to be a met.


yes i would...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm nearly 15 and I weigh 100 pounds. Quite the opposite, really.
I am 16 nearing 17 and I weight 132 pounds and I am 5,4 also and I only drink water when I go to sleep.
Quoting jeffs713:

Um... What?

Your body has a normal temperature range from 97.6-99.6 F. Sweat is produced by your body to cool you via evaporation and transport of heat into water. As your body is in contact with water, the heat is drawn away from it as long as the water is colder than your body temp. You *can* get dehydrated in a swimming pool, but it takes either an extremely long time, or water with a greater concentration of solutes than your own body fluids (it can occur in swimming pools, but is actually rather common in ocean water over extended periods).

So unless you are in water that is greater than your body temp (highly unlikely), you are going to experience cooling by taking a swim at the pool. Also, due to the proximity of the pool and its' microclimate (due to evaporation), it will actually be cooler at the pool than it would be 50 feet away in the parking lot.


again


*Facepalm*
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm definitely getting in the pool everyday for the next week.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033- 039 -053>056-280200-
/O.NEW.KILM.EH.A.0001.120629T1800Z-120630T2200Z/
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARI ON-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...
WHITEVILLE...BURGAW...SURF CITY...TOPSAIL BEACH...WILMINGTON...
CAROLINA BEACH...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...LELAND...BOLIVIA...
SHALLOTTE...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...HOLDEN BEACH...OAK ISLAND...
SOUTHPORT...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON.. .FLORENCE...
MARION...KINGSTREE...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...
GARDEN CITY...ANDREWS...GEORGETOWN...MURRELLS INLET
200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH.......br>


I thought excessive heat was temps of 110+ or heat indices above 125F?

and going to the pool seems sure to get you a sunburn while you BOIL in the 90+F pool
Quoting sunlinepr:

How do you post these on the blog?
Quoting jeffs713:

Um... What?

Your body has a normal temperature range from 97.6-99.6 F. Sweat is produced by your body to cool you via evaporation and transport of heat into water. As your body is in contact with water, the heat is drawn away from it as long as the water is colder than your body temp. You *can* get dehydrated in a swimming pool, but it takes either an extremely long time, or water with a greater concentration of solutes than your own body fluids (it can occur in swimming pools, but is actually rather common in ocean water over extended periods).

So unless you are in water that is greater than your body temp (highly unlikely), you are going to experience cooling by taking a swim at the pool. Also, due to the proximity of the pool and its' microclimate (due to evaporation), it will actually be cooler at the pool than it would be 50 feet away in the parking lot.


1378. nigel20
Quoting sunlinepr:

There is some spin on that wave next to Africa as well.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody keep getting this?

To me yes I need to refresh like two times to see the comments.
Exxon CEO: Fossil fuels will warm planet

TRex on climate change

I'm not trying to restart the debate, I just thought this was very interesting news.
Quoting weatherh98:


again


*Facepalm*

He's a doctor/nurse person. I'd listen to him.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I thought excessive heat was temps of 110+ or heat indices above 125F?

and going to the pool seems sure to get you a sunburn while you BOIL in the 90+F pool


were arguing with noone theydont get it
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's a doctor/nurse person. I'd listen to him.


Ive been swimming for 10 years when it comes to pool water temps, i know em
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody keep getting this?


I've gotten it a couple times, though none in the last day or 2.

Good afternoon everyone.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I thought excessive heat was temps of 110+ or heat indices above 125F?

and going to the pool seems sure to get you a sunburn while you BOIL in the 90+F pool

The water is not that hot, I just went to feel it. We did break our record low last night and it hasn't been hot today, so I'm pretty sure the water is cooler than 80 °F. :)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no way, i overheated today in swim practice.
you would have to sit almost still in the pool to cool down


that doesnt work, as i said, i had to do an ice bath in between sets
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The water is not that hot, I just went to feel it. We did break our record low last night and it hasn't been hot today, so I'm pretty sure the water is cooler than 80 °F. :)


below 80 feels freezing
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no way, i overheated today in swim practice.
you would have to sit almost still in the pool to cool down
You actually "overheated" due to muscular exertion, air temp, and likely dehydration. Water will cool you down more when moving, provided you are not producing your own heat via strenuous exertion.

Most of the time, when it is really hot and people are at the pool, they are not swimming laps endlessly. They are either getting in and out of the pool (playing) which produces evaporation (cooling you down), or relaxing, which does not usually relate to strenuous exertion.

And if you are doubting my expertise, I am currently a nursing student with just two semesters left (out of 8). I'm pretty sure I know what I'm talking about in this particular point (hyperthermia and dehydration).
Quoting opal92nwf:


YES
Comparing*SeaSurfaceTemperature&Depth26 from 2007 to this (leap)year
- - - - - - - - 26June2007 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 26June2005 Depth26degreesCelsius

- - - - - - - - 25June2012 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 25June2012 Depth26degreesCelsius


* ie Using equivalent Julian dates: which are consecutively numbered from 1thu365
from the beginning of the year through to the end; with leap years ending on day 366
Debby: FREE! I am finally FREE! FREE OF LAND!!!!



Looks like she wants to wrap around.
Drought Monitor is updating tomorrow at 8:30AM. I guessing I'll be under a moderate drought when it updates. It's been nothing but hot and dry here the past few weeks.
Quoting Articuno:
Debby: FREE! I am finally FREE! FREE OF LAND!!!!




it looks extratropical
Afternoon all. It's Africa hot here in Slidell, LA today. I just literally fried an egg on the sidewalk in under a minute.........It's a muggy 94 degrees with a heat index of 111........UGH
Quoting aspectre:
Comparing equivalent Julian*dates for the hottest SeaSurfaceTemperature&Depth26 year to this (leap)year
- - - - - - - - 26June2007 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 26June2005 Depth26degreesCelsius

- - - - - - - - 25June2012 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 25June2012 Depth26degreesCelsius


You can see the cold area that Debby created.
Yellow on the map!
1398. Grothar
Quoting allancalderini:
I am 16 nearing 17 and I weight 132 pounds and I am 5,4 also and I only drink water when I go to sleep.


Trust me, when you get to a certain age, you will not drink water when you go to sleep. :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1400. icmoore
90-94 degree water is perfect IMO but I am a cold-blooded Floridian. I don't like cold at all. Perfect outdoor temps for me are 70's lows and 90's high. That is all :)
Quoting weatherh98:

it looks extratropical

It looks generally awful, lol... Yesterday I was thinking we could get a decent bit of restrengthening after it reemerged, but at this point anything beyond a 50mph peak seems unlikely... The trip across Florida took a toll on it, and it wasn't too well organized to start with, so it won't do much.
1402. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Strange. Shows it every other time I refresh.


What is it we can't see? If you can't see it, how do you know it's there?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm nearly 15 and I weigh 100 pounds. Quite the opposite, really.


I'm 16 and I weigh 115...lol.

All thanks to a fast metabolism..
Quoting tropicfreak:


I'm 16 and I weigh 115...lol.

All thanks to a fast metabolism..


Im 45 and I weigh 480.... but that has nothing to do with weather!!!!
1405. ncstorm
these are our record highs here in Wilmington..I think its safe to say we will breaking that tomorrow through the weekend

RECORD HIGHS AT ILM...FRIDAY 101 (1959) SATURDAY 100 (1959)
SUNDAY 98 (1990) MONDAY 97 (1980).

no way, i overheated today in swim practice.
you would have to sit almost still in the pool to cool down

to put it perspective, it is warm enough to feel warm when you jump in, practically as warm as or warmer than the air.

average skin temp is 31-32 C for someone who has been indoors, or about 87-89 degrees, and the water has the potential to quickly transfer heat to your skin, given it is 90F or warmer

This morning in N GA the water in our pool was 90F, and will only get warmer

just think, you sweat in 90F weather, now imagine water.
It is not a pleasant experience
Quoting aspectre:
Comparing equivalent Julian*dates for the hottest SeaSurfaceTemperature&Depth26 year to this (leap)year
- - - - - - - - 26June2007 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 26June2005 Depth26degreesCelsius

- - - - - - - - 25June2012 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 25June2012 Depth26degreesCelsius


Very interesting graphics. So, if I'm understanding that right, although SSTs are (so far) unspectacular this year, the temperature at depth is unprecedented.

I assume that this means that hurricanes which do form have a better chance of becoming majors.
Quoting opal92nwf:

How do you post these on the blog?


Sorry, was out for a while....

To post from Africa, visit Levy's satellite imagery...

Click on image to animate

Copy image location

Paste as an image into this blog....
.
Hi Again ...

Seems this is the best/only 'path' here for Tropics/Hurricanes, yea ?

If so, then guess I'm in the right place ;-)
.

Now, here's a good one some Folks been playing with ...

Quoting Tribucanes:
Best weather should include a state that experiences all four seasons.


.
Yes, happy to see so many standing up for their 'States Rights' (so to speak ;-)

But let's think of 'Areas and Regions' ... or maybe Geographical Climates Zones

(or is there an 'Official Term' for this idea ? ... and sorry, been a while since I talked weather with Real Meteorology Types, and I may sound like Bubba Gump from Gumpstump, so hope you'll forgive any shortcomings I have in those regards)

Do know the Northern Gulf Coast/Deepest South ... from oh, say Houston across to Jacksonville, something like that. Some call it the "Northern Boundary of Margaritaville", but that's only if you consider any Changes in Latitude might affect the Attitude (smile)

This Area, and correct me if I'm wrong, has about the Widest Range of All Possible Weather Anywhere. Won't necessarily get it any given year/cycle, but over the long run. About same for all of Eastern No.America too, yea ?

And are many in my direct area who claim, as the Chamber of Commerce would insist - Tallahassee, the Place Furthest South that Gets All 4 Seasons

Well, can, but not every Season every Year to the degree of that 'page turn' Up North ... that CAN happen, just not year in/out

But, is about same across this whole 'Area of North Gulf', yes ?

Do your own Math on all this, but has something to do with it as the 'Tail End of the Appalachians' ... good example is the 'Escarpment of the Old Spanish Trail' (now I-10, Hiway 90 across Panhandle), Caverns at Marianna, etc .. was some type of 'island' (in a sense) during last Ice Age, so many trees survived that are now gone in rest of South and won't find them till get to way up North - Elm, other Hardwood good examples (and something else going on with the very unique Torreya Pine, cousin to Torrey)

Yep, Snow, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Afternoon T-Storms with lotta Lightning, etc etc ... get it all, and at times can get a LOT of it all

As one Ol' Weather Guy used to say, and he was Col. in charge of Eglin AFB Weather Command yada way back when ...

"Every Meteorologist in Military wants to get stationed at Eglin. Is THE Place for Weather on Earth"

Or something like that, but you get the Idea, and Quite a Boast, eh ?

But, he was serious Old Skool from Penn State ... yea, that place ;-)

And think Fla State Univ now trying to gain that same reputation ?
.

Anyway, all across this Northern Margaritaville ... sure is something going on almost all the time ... weather-wise ... so grab any State along here, all of them will 'work' ;-)
.

Now, this 'Big Front' that's just moved through, and moved out Debby

Maps I'm seeing show it's moved all the way to Key West, yes ?

Again, another Front getting this far South this late in year, not too common as I know the 'history' .. that fair ?

And like I was yappin' here earlier, let's see what gets left in its wake, yea ?

Could get interesting again in next week or so ?

Ok, ty all, later, BC
.