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Debby dumps 20 inches of rain; 105° in Denver: hottest day on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2012

Florida, the Sunshine State, continues to be the thoroughly sodden state, thanks to torrential rains from slow-moving Tropical Storm Debby. On Monday, Debby spawned an area of intense thunderstorms that blew up over the Florida Panhandle, just east of Apalachicola. A weather station in Wakulia County, 4 miles east of Saint Marks, Florida, recorded 12.99" on rain in just 12 hours, bringing the 48-hour rainfall total at the site to 20.96". Several other stations in Wakulia Country also recorded rainfall amounts in excess of 20 inches, and the heavy rains caused moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Debby did not spawn any tornadoes on Monday, thankfully.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby shows an area of extreme rainfall in excess of 15 inches has affected the Florida Panhandle.

Dry air and high wind shear continue to disrupt Debby. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 25 mph at 7 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Terra satellite image of Debby taken at 12:30 pm EDT Monday June 25, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 45mph. Note the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center, which were dumping extremely heavy rains over the Florida Panhandle that caused major flooding on area rivers. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the high range through Wednesday, and given the storm's other problems, significant intensification before landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast is unlikely.

Denver's 105°: hottest temperature in city history
The mercury soared to 105° in Denver, Colorado on Monday, tying the record for the hottest temperature ever measured in the city. The city also hit 105° on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878. Yesterday's 105° reading was the city's fourth consecutive day in the triple digit heat. The city's record streak of 100°+ days is five, set in 1989 and again in 2005. Denver's forecast today calls for highs of 100 - 104°, so the city will likely tie its all-time mark for consecutive 100°+ days.

In many respects, the extreme heat that has scorched Colorado since Saturday is the state's most intense heat wave in recorded history. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The record heat in Colorado has exacerbated numerous destructive wildfires, and the Governor reported over the weekend that half of the nation's firefighting fleet has been deployed to Colorado. On Sunday, a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles near Colorado Springs drove 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes. In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990. Today is the last day of exceptional heat for Colorado, as the ridge of high pressure responsible slides to the east, bringing record-breaking heat to the Midwest instead.

Jeff Masters
One of Debbie's tornados
One of Debbie's tornados
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
TS Debbie on Bayshore
TS Debbie on Bayshore
Waves crashing on Bayshore Blvd.

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Triple-digit temperatures are expected at virtually every station in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas today (along with a bunch in Louisiana, Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western South Dakota, and southeastern Montana):

hot

Across the water, the European heat wave continued into its third week. For example, Madrid, Spain, reached 104 today, its warmest June reading ever.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I can fully relate to what you are saying. I hope that I did not come across as being that any of these people were seeking a star status. They cannot actually make themselves a star. The public does that for them, or not.
;)
that's why i added the 'edit' statement.. didn't intend it directed at all; just commentary sparked by your language.. which it's clear such mentality does exist with some other bloggers.
myself, i throw a thing or two out there on occasion, but my level of analysis is so shallow in comparison to data some folks use, i expect it mostly goes unnoticed :P
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


why would you respect me?
i havent done anything yet.

you post alot and i have never seen you do anything trollish
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Horrific story.

.REFERENCE TORNADO...VENUS TORNADO

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115-120 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3.6 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1
INJURIES: 1

START DATE: JUN 24 2012
START TIME: 1223 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 2 SSW VENUS / HIGHLANDS / FL
START LAT/LON: 27.0400 / -81.3600

END DATE: JUN 24 2012
END TIME: 1229 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 2 NNW VENUS / HIGHLANDS / FL
END_LAT/LON: 27.0900 / -82.3600

SURVEY SUMMARY: THE 32-YEAR-OLD VENUS MOTHER WHO DIED FROM
INJURIES AFTER A TORNADO FLUNG HER 200 FEET AWAY FROM HER
HOME WAS FOUND CRADLING HER 3-YEAR-OLD DAUGHTER IN HER ARMS.
SEE COMPLETE HERNANDO TODAY ARTICLE AT HTTP://BIT.LY/KXFQQV


:( That's really sad... Really sad...
Looks like the center is becoming elongated.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Triple-digit temperatures are expected at virtually every station in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas today (along with a bunch in Louisiana, Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western South Dakota, and southeastern Montana):

hot

Across the water, the European heat wave continued into its third week. For example, Madrid, Spain, reached 104 today, its warmest June reading ever.

It is times like this that I wish the Houston adage about our weather was true... "Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes, it will change."
Quoting Neapolitan:
Triple-digit temperatures are expected at virtually every station in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas today (along with a bunch in Louisiana, Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western South Dakota, and southeastern Montana):

hot

Across the water, the European heat wave continued into its third week. For example, Madrid, Spain, reached 104 today, its warmest June reading ever.


ok 104 in spain in June is just ridiculous! the world is so out of wack right now! we are effed! specially along the coast!
509. yoboi
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Thanks for taking time out of your day to be a sarcastic prick. And if I hadn't just posted a paragraph about how ridiculous it is to criticize other posters, I would point our that your spelling could use a little work. But its a blog, and you are likely just another person with "little man syndrome", so I'll get over it, leave the blog since it is in full-blown troll mode today, and go back to enjoying the great weather here in central NC.

79, sunny, low humidity. Lovin it.

Prayers for TA and your family.
Prayers for any Floridians in harms way.


umm i wasn't being sarcastic, but now i will be, can you help me with my spelling teacher??? oh nevermind spell check your own words ghost rider........poof....
Quoting wxmod:


All satellite images WXMOD posts come from NASA:

http://earthdata.nasa.gov/data/nrt-data/hazards-a nd-disasters



They are easily verifiable at this site. I have posted this link many times before. The Greenland photos are located at about 50.00,69.00

Thank you. I mentioned it because the original site is blocked on my computer (at work)...
What a huge squirrel tail to the Northeast Debby has developed!
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Looks like the center is becoming elongated.

It has been stretched out most of the day, but its axis has been changing. Earlier this morning it was SSW-NNE, now it looks more WSW-ENE.
Looks like Debby is finally about to make landfall south of Cross City, Florida (sometime later today at least as the cold front starts to give her a kick). The 26" of rain with Debby in Sanborn is incredible, hopefully we don't see anything like that as she slowly moves eastwards across the state. Can't rule out another flood though if convection fires near the center again. I put my full forecast and analysis at http://weather.schematical.com/

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Looks like the center is becoming elongated.


yeah it does, but thats the closest ive seen convection to the center since it first developed! i think it will look better once it hits land and the day time heating really fires the storms around the center, probably will help it when it makes it into the atlantic!
Just something to think about.. alot of us Meteorologists and people in general living on the west coast of florida from Venice to Panama City are very thankfull that this storm did lack moisture. Sure alot came down on Saturday and Sunday in extreme western florida and in Apalachicola on Monday..but this is such a slow mover that the rainfield could of been alot more than squalls of showers coming in for most of the State. There is a tornado threat but the dynamics are slight now. But I'm talking about rainfall..especially in the Tampa Bay area.. there was Alot of Rain early on Saturday into Sunday. The Flow off the GOM is surging water over its banks in S Tampa and St Pete,.. if the normal TS had the moisture field with it... the area from TampaBay north to Cedar Key would be approaching 25-40 inches of rain in 4days (Sat thru Tues).. So in all, this could of been a whole lot worse for West Central Florida coastline. We saw what St Pete- Clearwater got on Saturday, We saw what Apahalcholca got on Monday.. think of it as if this system didn't have dry air in it.
Quoting jeffs713:

It is times like this that I wish the Houston adage about our weather was true... "Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes, it will change."


Yesterday and again today, I'm backing my car into the garage so the hood and engine is near the garage door so whatever heat can escape out, instead of being deeper inside of garage near the door and inner wall.
Quoting ncstorm:


again..refresh your page before copying.. you have 48hrs but out to Weds.. you have to hit refresh each time still :)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Looks like the center is becoming elongated.


Aww sweet she doesn't want to leave the Gulf, I don't blame you Debby, but please move along.
Hot air out here, everything you touch even in garage is hot to the touch
Quoting jeffs713:
441. How about posting an image link that goes somewhere other than a site dedicated to art, which could be easily photoshopped... Maybe link an image from the original site, such as the NOAA or another organization that has direct access to the images (not rehosted images).


Here's the link to a similar image, if not the exact image, of the Disko area of Greenland, showing the pothole lakes/ponds, glacial outflow and dirty surface. The image is from the Centre for Ocean and Ice. I tried embedding the link so the image would show, but it's too wide for the blog.

photo link:
Link

Center for Ocean and Ice link to more images for the same region: Link

Quoting RitaEvac:


Yesterday and again today, I'm backing my car into the garage so the hood and engine is near the garage door so whatever heat can escape out, instead of being deeper inside of garage near the door and inner wall.



hmm, thats a pretty good Idea. Never thought of that.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yesterday and again today, I'm backing my car into the garage so the hood and engine is near the garage door so whatever heat can escape out, instead of being deeper inside of garage near the door and inner wall.

Yep. I just moved to a new office building this week (now closer to the Memorial area), and I have access to a parking garage now... It is AMAZING how much difference it makes.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hot air out here, everything you touch even in garage is hot to the touch


Just hope your A/C doesn't fail, cause if it does, your burnt toast.
Quoting MjOregon:


Here's the link to a similar image, if not the exact image, of the Disko area of Greenland, showing the pothole lakes/ponds, glacial outflow and dirty surface. The image is from the Centre for Ocean and Ice. I tried embedding the link so the image would show, but it's too wide for the blog.

photo link:
Link

Center for Ocean and Ice link to more images for the same region: Link



have those lakes been forming in the past during the summer, or is this a recent development?
Quoting yoboi:


umm i wasn't being sarcastic, but now i will be, can you help me with my spelling teacher??? oh nevermind spell check your own words ghost rider........poof....



Yobol....You ain't missing anything with that poster. Many ignore as do I after rude posts...Love the name calling and then the prayers at the end. Hypocritical much?
Oh... And TA13, you have WUmail.
Quoting E46Pilot:



hmm, thats a pretty good Idea. Never thought of that.


It's already over 100 in the garage, add the heat from the hood/engine, becomes unbearable in there, especially when you have a home gym exercise machine to work out to....
Is there anything to prevent Debbie from going south once she emerges out over the Atlantic? I would sure hate to see her go south then back across the state.
Quoting Tygor:


Yeah 107 here with no wind. Thankfully there's almost no humidity otherwise I'm pretty sure the pits of hell would be showing themselves.
Don't worry hottest part of our day is yet to come, the all time high of 112 in Austin could be in jeopardy since the hottest part of day is between 4 and 5 pm? Some records will fall, the bad thing about this heat wave is No wind at times in certain locations. I was on a metal boat on a Lake early yesterday morning with the No wind, no ripples at all and I baked for 3 hours, I have been fishing this Lake for over 30 years with a boat even when it is hot but I have never seen it that calm or that hot.
532. yoboi
Quoting newportrinative:



You ain't missing anything with that poster. Many ignore.....Love the name calling and then the prayers at the end. Hypocritical much?


yeah i noticed that.....
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Just hope your A/C doesn't fail, cause if it does, your burnt toast.


Know plenty of people that are going out
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yeah it does, but thats the closest ive seen convection to the center since it first developed! i think it will look better once it hits land and the day time heating really fires the storms around the center, probably will help it when it makes it into the atlantic!


I agree. Being that part of the inner circulation is already brushing the coast, watch for convection to fire close to the center very soon.
This is what kills this blog, there is way too much I did this first, you missed this, you didn't call it right, nevermind there were a lot of " professionals" that missed it. Ok we get it. All the folks attacking people who just give there opinion. It's really what's wrong with people these days. No matter how much computerized info you have in front of you, it's still a guess. The models aren't a perfect science, case in point. The Euro is usually the winner this time it wasn't. This childish crap of trying too discredit people who are sharing there FREE time to try to give the "uneducated" an idea of what's going on needs to quit. Thanks to those of you who do take time too put together your ideas for those who love the weather but aren't "meteorologically inclined.
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's already over 100 in the garage, add the heat from the hood/engine, becomes unbearable in there, especially when you have a home gym exercise machine to work out to....
buy a portable a/c unit from home depot for $290+ depending on area you want to cool.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Just hope your A/C doesn't fail, cause if it does, your burnt toast.


ours did several years ago.
had to sleep downstairs
Was 98 outside.
low 100s upstairs.
about 92 downstairs.
I would go to sleep, wake up, wring the sweat out of my clothes and take a shower.
Debby was/is a very "frustrating" storm to forecast and it brought out the best and worst out of the models and humans as well.......Model divergence when a storm has not formed, or is way out to sea, is one thing. Model divergence, and other uncertainty, when a storm is on your doorstep is another and Gulf storms are some of the toughest ones to deal with.

I can't remember how many times we have seen the "cone" keep shifting to the left on an incoming Cape Verde storm heading out of the Bahamas towards Florida and the Gulf. Everyone "waiting on the expected turn" as the cone shifts West from South Florida, to Big Bend, to Panhandle, to AL-MS, to LA and so on when ridges and weaknesses do not materialize exactly as predicted in earlier model runs.

This experience with Debby illustrates why this is not a perfect science yet; and may never be.


Quoting uncwhurricane85:


have those lakes been forming in the past during the summer, or is this a recent development?

They have been forming in the past during the summer, but earlier and earlier each summer.
for those who would like to know just how much water is in an inch of rain in gallons for a set surface area this link is interesting. The ammount of water that has fallen in gallons over florida these last few days is unbelievable!

Link
Hummm, Center about to make landfall. Just a tad ahead of schedule ya think?

Sorry for the double post.
Quoting StPeteBill:
Is there anything to prevent Debbie from going south once she emerges out over the Atlantic? I would sure hate to see her go south then back across the state.

There isn't anything to really drive her south or back west, as there is a high pressure pushing her east, and the A/B high will push her north.
Image didn't animate..will try again..
545. yoboi
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
for those who would like to know just how much water is in an inch of rain in gallons for a set surface area this link is interesting. The ammount of water that has fallen in gallons over florida these last few days is unbelievable!

Link


wow that's a lot....
Quoting fredric1979:
This is what kills this blog, there is way too much I did this first, you missed this, you didn't call it right, nevermind there were a lot of " professionals" that missed it. Ok we get it. All the folks attacking people who just give there opinion. It's really what's wrong with people these days. No matter how much computerized info you have in front of you, it's still a guess. The models aren't a perfect science, case in point. The Euro is usually the winner this time it wasn't. This childish crap of trying too discredit people who are sharing there FREE time to try to give the "uneducated" an idea of what's going on needs to quit. Thanks to those of you who do take time too put together your ideas for those who love the weather but aren't "meteorologically inclined.

I agree. Too many children come on here and try to establish themselves as "good forecasters" as a status symbol. All they end up doing is driving intelligent people away from the blog, irritating the other children (who then get into an e-peen match), and getting on everyone elses' nerves.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. My mom had a stroke, I got in a minor wreck with my grandpa, and I was almost struck by lightning. At 3 AM.

Wow. I'm so sorry. I hope you and your grandfather are okay and wishing your mom a speedy recovery.
Quoting yoboi:


looks like the new norm for texas, one more year and texas might be the new nevada.....


Look at the global patterns and how the airflow patterns are but it is quite obvious that just like there is a tropical flow there is a dry flow. The Sahara to the American dessert. And look at a topographical map of the US and you will see the dessert advancing from the pacific Ocean to the Gulf coast of Texas. Central Texas has been transitioning for years now and its going to continue unless there is a global climate change like there was 10,000 years ago when global climate changed and created the desserts. I do not now the effect of GW on this and hate to bring it up but you think it would speed this process up.


Back on topic Debby looks like she is flying compared to the past 3 days even tho she is still moving pretty slow. I fill bad for you Floridians and I hope everyone stays safe.
Link
Ya those lake have been forming earlier and earlier and now they're getting larger. Watched one that was seven miles by twenty with a decent depth I want to say of about eight feet disappear in a matter of minutes as a fissure opened up. Scientists fathom that all this water rushes to the bottom and makes the shelf move faster and faster as the situation exasperates.
Quoting jeffs713:

It is times like this that I wish the Houston adage about our weather was true... "Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes, it will change."


They say that here in Colorado too. I heard it growing up in Cincinnati, Ohio as well. In fact, I did a little research one day and came to the conclusion that the "If you don't like the weather just wait x minutes" adage is common for just about any place with a temperate, continental climate.

As for our weather along the Colorado Front Range, adages notwithstanding, I don't expect much change for at least 10 days out. It is currently 103 F and climbing at Davidson Mesa near Louisville. Humidity is a lousy 11% and winds are gusty and erratic. But hey, at least we have a few clouds around today.

I am not that much knowledgable about tropical meterology but did something extra ordinary happen that debbie followed the GFS model and not the Euro? How could the Euro still go with the western track, even late in the game when all along the GFS saw debby's correct path?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Hummm, Center about to make landfall. Just a tad ahead of schedule ya think?



Yes it's going to make landfall in the next few hours probably.. I suspect the northeast jog will turn more east tonight as it crosses the state
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
for those who would like to know just how much water is in an inch of rain in gallons for a set surface area this link is interesting. The ammount of water that has fallen in gallons over florida these last few days is unbelievable!

Link
That's amazing! Who would have thought? I wonder how they came up with that figure???? Just think, a great amount of that water will be running downstream to Lake O.
Gust of 39MPH today in WPB!!!!:)
I think I've earned the dunce hat in my thoughts on Debby. I think the only thing I was correct about was the actual center consolidation on Friday night or so...everyone needs a little humbling experience every now and then. :-p
Models continue to indicate that Debby may have some effects on land after it crosses Florida.
It coming on now!!
Quoting kwgirl:
That's amazing! Who would have thought? I wonder how they came up with that figure???? Just think, a great amount of that water will be running downstream to Lake O.


a quick calculation for Wakulla county florida being 736 Sq miles with about 18 inches of rain across the entire county is
230,250,240,000 gallons of water!!
The 2pm BAMM is like Chinese water torture.
Quoting StPeteBill:
Is there anything to prevent Debbie from going south once she emerges out over the Atlantic? I would sure hate to see her go south then back across the state.


Hey there St. Pete Bill.... Glad you like the picture I took that you use for your Avatar.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


a quick calculation for Wakulla county florida being 736 Sq miles with about 18 inches of rain across the entire county is
230,250,240,000 gallons of water!!
O.M.G. And knowing the hilly country in the panhandle, I wonder how long it will take for the flooded areas to dry? It is kinda sandy, but don't the dips fill up and stay full until evaporation or percolation?
Quoting MrMixon:


They say that here in Colorado too. I heard it growing up in Cincinnati, Ohio as well. In fact, I did a little research one day and came to the conclusion that the "If you don't like the weather just wait x minutes" adage is common for just about any place with a temperate, continental climate.

As for our weather along the Colorado Front Range, adages notwithstanding, I don't expect much change for at least 10 days out. It is currently 103 F and climbing at Davidson Mesa near Louisville. Humidity is a lousy 11% and winds are gusty and erratic. But hey, at least we have a few clouds around today.


Oh, I know it is an adage just about everywhere. It doesn't apply much here during the summer (we have a "rubber stamp forecast" during the summer). During the winter, however, it is not unheard of to have a high in the low 40s one day, and in the 70s the next.
We're up to 4.4f above the previous record, and still climbing. Where she stops, nobody knows.


Quoting RitaEvac:


It's already over 100 in the garage, add the heat from the hood/engine, becomes unbearable in there, especially when you have a home gym exercise machine to work out to....


I sympathize with you, though Central FL has been pleasantly mild recently due to Debby's continued presence. If it were me, the home gym would be in an air-conditioned space if at all possible.

It looks like TS Debby is moving a bit faster than predicted? I was hoping the rain shield would shift away from the Big Bend area (and other areas that have received too much rain) and more to E. Central FL so my area could get a couple more inches. The last month and a half has brought beneficial rains, but the lakes and the aquifer still need a lot more to catch up.
Moving NE at six now, Debby should make landfall in the next two hours if not sooner. Looking like, with faster NE movement now, that Debby might be able to make some use of the energy she shed over the last three days that is NE of her now. Are we going to get a little blob of energy to the NE of Debby like yesterday at some point? If not, I think Debby is done until she gets over the Atlantic. Although she is pulling moisture into her center finally and the moisture is moving southwesterly into it, so maybe she does still have a card to play, we shall see.
Quoting RTSplayer:
The 2pm BAMM is like Chinese water torture.

Eww... stalling off the other coast, in the middle of the gulf stream, then going ashore again. Thankfully, the BAMM model is pretty simplistic (actually, it is also designed for deeper storms, too). Also, all of the other dynamic models posted here on WU forecast Debby going out to sea permanently.
Quoting AllStar17:
Models continue to indicate that Debby may have some effects on land after it crosses Florida.


yeah for us in Canada im watching her!
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


a quick calculation for Wakulla county florida being 736 Sq miles with about 18 inches of rain across the entire county is
230,250,240,000 gallons of water!!


or 0.87 cubic kilometers...
There was 4 forces of weather in play that affected the steering of Debby. 1)Central Plains Ridge, 2)East Coast Trough, 3) Upper Level Low in the Western Gulf, 4) Subtropical Ridge that extended into the Western Caribbean. Where Debby ended up was on the fringe of these 4 steering mechanisms which is why she stalled. Flow around the Central Plains Ridge is Clockwise, Flow around the Trough is Counter-Clockwise, Flow around the ULL is Counter-Clockwise, and Flow around the Subtropical High was Clockwise. At least that's how I saw it.

Also the GFS model predicted Debby to be a shallow, yet vertically stacked system. The other models predicted a deep and vertically stacked system with good Upper Level Anti-Cyclonic flow to ventilate the system had that happened the system would have taken the westward track. But wind shear increased and stayed fairly strong keeping Debby's convection to the North and East of her COC.
Wind: SSW at 30 mph in WPB!!! wow
I think we may see Ernesto near the south east/ northeast coast
573. yoboi
what city in fla got the most rain? and how much?
Quoting MississippiWx:
I think I've earned the dunce hat in my thoughts on Debby. I think the only thing I was correct about was the actual center consolidation on Friday night or so...everyone needs a little humbling experience every now and then. :-p


The fact that anyone tries to predict nature's unpredictability is quite a feat. Many great meteorologists have failed many, many times. Just because one fails, does not mean that they are horrible forecasters. I wish that some ignorant people on this blog that bash people for their missed predictions would grow up and realize that. I did not catch the earlier statements about Levi... But IMO, he is probably the most insightful minds on this blog. And I guarantee that there was absolutely no reason to bash him. Period. Kudos to those who got this right.
SHe's trying to fire up storms again in the Panhandle. Last few frames of VIZ and WV verify.
is anybody seeing rotation in the blob off south carolina?
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM DINDO (DOKSURI)
11:00 PM PhST June 26 2012
==============================================

"DINDO" has intensified into a tropical storm as it continues to move west northwest

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Dindo (Doksuri) located at 14.4°N 129.7°E or 540 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Additional Information
========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-15 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "DINDO" will enhance the southwest monsoon which will bring occasional rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming frequent rains over the western section. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by the effect of the southwest monsoon and Tropical Storm "DINDO".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Quoting gulfscout:
I am not that much knowledgable about tropical meterology but did something extra ordinary happen that debbie followed the GFS model and not the Euro? How could the Euro still go with the western track, even late in the game when all along the GFS saw debby's correct path?


The EURO thought Debby would drift more to the W and high pressure would build in kicking her back to TX. The problem is the EURO never believed the trough over the E atlantic would amplify enough to pick her up and send her out to sea. The EURO basically played catch up and failed miserably. The GFS never let go of it's solution and pretty much nailed the forecast. The GFS was the first model to even sniff out Debby. The EURO just needs a new upgrade and maybe it will be king again.
Black Creek in Middleburg which is just south of Orange Park, FL. is experiencing major flooding. They are in a flood warning until Saturday. Flood Stage is 10.6ft. the water right now is over 22ft. Please take a moment to say a prayer for the people affected. Debby is still reeking havoc!
Quoting WarEagle8:
buy a portable a/c unit from home depot for $290+ depending on area you want to cool.


I livei n Houston too.
We have 3 window units to supplement our Main unit. One near the laundry room (150$ small). One near in the Master (99$ - very small), and one we keep in the garage and only install it in case of emergency which cools 1000 sqr ft (400$ and as big as you can buy that uses a normal plug/outlet), which we've only had to use once thank goodness, when the fan on the OUTSIDE unit went out in the middle of summer and our repair guy had to special order the part. He couldn't find one in town. We blocked off unnecessary portions of the house, put towels at the bottoms of doors leading to those areas to keep back the heat, and all three units plus all the other steps we took above made the house liveable. Most people here don't have this level of backup however.
581. yoboi
Quoting plutorising:
is anybody seeing rotation in the blob off south carolina?



a little bit
Clearwater Beach:

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM DINDO (DOKSURI)
11:00 PM PhST June 26 2012
==============================================

"DINDO" has intensified into a tropical storm as it continues to move west northwest

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Dindo (Doksuri) located at 14.4°N 129.7°E or 540 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Additional Information
========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-15 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "DINDO" will enhance the southwest monsoon which will bring occasional rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming frequent rains over the western section. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by the effect of the southwest monsoon and Tropical Storm "DINDO".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.



Here I thought this site was "PG".
584. Jax82
Debby looks elongated at this hour, and it does appear she will be making it ashore soon. Being in Jax, it looks like all the rain is to the N and E of her, we've already had the rainiest June day on record here yesterday, and more on the way.
Good afternoon everyone.. Looks like our little convectionless swirl Debby is nearing landfall...

i hope the rest of it isn't under the sand???
Quoting charlottefl:
Clearwater Beach:


11 a.m.

Tampa Police Marine Patrol rescues two baby manatees

The manatee calves washed ashore along flooded Bayshore Boulevard this morning with their mother, who was dead. Officers called Tampa's Lowry Park Zoo and Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission to help with the rescue. The calves will be transported to the zoo.

Quoting plutorising:
is anybody seeing rotation in the blob off south carolina?

Related to the tail end of the front and Debby's circulation.
I hope she doesn't try to take one more bite out of Florida before she goes. It looks like she is trying to fire more cloud tops over the same areas that have already been hard hit.
Link
I just want to say thank you to the Weather Underground! My hats off to Dr. Jeff and the entire staff for all they do!!

591. yoboi
Quoting charlottefl:
Clearwater Beach:





instead of a red flag flying they have the white flag flying...
Quoting jeffs713:

Oh, I know it is an adage just about everywhere. It doesn't apply much here during the summer (we have a "rubber stamp forecast" during the summer). During the winter, however, it is not unheard of to have a high in the low 40s one day, and in the 70s the next.


Yep, I think the bottom line is that weather is darn changeable just about everywhere, though of course it's more changeable in some places than others and that changeability is sometimes seasonal.

The high elevations of Colorado are well known for regular single-day temperature swings in excess of 40 degrees. For instance, the average daily temperature swing last year for Alamosa, Colorado was 34F, with one day boasting a 54F degree swing. Hence another common adage in Colorado... "dress in layers."

:)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wind: SSW at 30 mph in WPB!!! wow


That is impressive, as I do not think we have quite had sustained 30 mph winds during Debby in Orlando. We have definitely had gusts between 30-40mph in the occasional squalls from Sunday night until now though. The current winds in the Big Bend (near the coc) do not look impressive, 7 mph at Suwannee.
Based on radar imagery out of Tallahassee... looks like landfall is imminent. Likely to occur within the next 30-45 mins tops.
I will readily admit that I was wrong about Debby. For days I had forecasted Debby to follow a path to Texas. The shear pushing Debby's convection east stayed too strong for that to happen.
Debby is one of the toughest storms I've had to try to forecast.

In any case, the winds on the Sunshine Skyway Bridge gusted to 67 mph in the last few hours:
http://bridgemonitoring.com/bridges/Skyway/sky.ht m
Scroll down and click "Tower Center" Spreadsheet data.
Blob off S.C is spinning for the reasons Jeff gave. Whole system is still very much connected. The circular blob off S.C is the second rotating wheel of Debby and is connected to and pulling the squall lines east of Florida. Somehow Debbie, the circular blob, and surrounding energy will hook back up to form a formidable storm once Debbie hits Atlantic waters.
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
I will readily admit that I was wrong about Debby. For days I had forecasted Debby to follow a path to Texas. The shear pushing Debby's convection east stayed too strong for that to happen.
Debby is one of the toughest storms I've had to try to forecast.


Don't sweat it.

Half the arm-chair QBs were wrong, including myself.

The majority of the experts were wrong.

The majority of the computer models were wrong.


NHC botched this forecast the worst I've ever seen them in 10 or 15 years.

The past 10 years they've been almost perfect, but this one was just totally blown.
Well looking at the full Atlantic water vapor loop,I think the Doc. may have been only one storm off. The upper level winds from one side of the Atlantic to the other look brutal. I'm sure someone will correct me but it looks like a pretty nasty TUTT setting up again from the Yucatan to Greenland.So trackers in my opinion only enjoy this one while you can. Standing by as usual for Crow.

Quoting plutorising:
i hope the rest of it isn't under the sand???



Kinda looks that way...
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well looking at the full Atlantic water vapor loop,I think the Doc. may have been only one storm off. The upper level winds from one side of the Atlantic to the other look brutal. I'm sure someone will correct me but it looks like a pretty nasty TUTT setting up again from the Yucatan to Greenland.So trackers in my opinion only enjoy this one while you can. Standing by as usual for Crow.

I stand with you... With the loss of the MJO, it will be tough for anything big to form in July... Maybe one or two Chris like storms, but the odds of any systems of tropical origins like Debby are low I think, at least through July 20.
Here's a quick poll.


Whats the likelihood of Debby passing within 200 miles of Bermuda!


a. 0-25

b. 26-50

c. 51-75

d. 75+


whoever sees this, please answer!
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDebby for 26June6pmGMT:
Its vector had changed from East at 3mph(4.9km/h) to ENEast at 9.3mph(15km/h)
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 40knots(46mph)74km/h to 35knots(40mph)65km/h
MinimumPressure had increased from 993millibars to 995millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Debby's path...
CTY-CrossCity : 66FD-CrystalRiver : 1FA1-CrystalRiver : KBKV-Brooksville : FA40-NewPortRichey

The WSWesternmost dot on the ENEasternmost line-segment is TS.Debby's most recent position

The ENEasternmost line-segment is the straightline projection through TS/Debby's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
66FD-dumbbell is 26June12amGMT straightline projection's endpoint connected to its nearest airport
FA40-dumbbell is 26June6amGMT straightline projection's endpoint connected to its nearest airport
1FA1-dumbbell is 26June12pmGMT straightline projection's endpoint connected to its nearest airport
On 26June6pmGMT, TS.Debby was heading toward passage over HorseshoeBeach in ~1hour from now

Copy&paste ssi, kxmr, a51-29.673n85.206w, ecp-30.171n85.8w, kbkv-28.57n82.656w, fa43-29.803n84.59w, 66fd-28.978n82.741w, fa40-28.232n82.764w, 1fa1-28.889n82.684w, cty, 28.3n85.9w-28.5n85.8w, 28.5n85.8w-28.6n85.8w, 28.6n85.8w-28.6n85.5w, 28.6n85.5w-29.0n85.2w, 29.0n85.2w-29.0n85.0w, 29.0n85.0w-28.9n84.7w, 28.9n84.7w-28.9n84.4w, 28.9n84.4w-29.3n83.6w, 28.9n84.4w-29.448n83.299w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
See the previous mapping to compare the difference.
Brian's postulate.


When the forecast models for a tropical system are more or less equally divided between a typical climatological track and an alternate unusual track the climatological track is more likely to occur.
Strange higher winds on the east coast now:

Quoting uncwhurricane85:


have those lakes been forming in the past during the summer, or is this a recent development?


Meltwater lakes form every year to some extent. Some information about why they're important can be found in this report from the Cryospheric Processes Laboratory of CUNY.

Link
So Debby at my house for dinner right?
It on the TWCLink
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


That is impressive, as I do not think we have quite had sustained 30 mph winds during Debby in Orlando. We have definitely had gusts between 30-40mph in the occasional squalls from Sunday night until now though. The current winds in the Big Bend (near the coc) do not look impressive, 7 mph at Suwannee.
Debby looks almost frontal. Like the heavy rains have created a rain cooled airmass and warm tropical air is overrunning it. Sustaining the rain cooled airmass.

The biggest thunderstorms look like they are in the Atlantic.
Gust of 46MPH today in WPB!!!!:)
Quoting charlottefl:
Strange higher winds on the east coast now:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI (T1206)
3:00 AM JST June 27 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Doksuri (1004 hPa) is located at 14.7N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
===========================

24 HRS: 17.4N 125.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 19.3N 121.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 21.4N 118.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
Quoting charlottefl:
Strange higher winds on the east coast now:



Is the pressure gradient tightening up on the east coast as Debby moves ashore on the west coast?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Brian's postulate.


When the forecast models for a tropical system are more or less equally divided between a typical climatological track and an alternate unusual track the climatological track is more likely to occur.


"This statement is true and unprovable."
Quoting charlottefl:
Strange higher winds on the east coast now:



For sure. I have seen some 40 mph gusts here in Brevard County. Also take into effect that we have brilliant sunshine mixing down the stronger winds from just off the surface. That would explain in part.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Is the pressure gradient tightening up there?


Must be, kinda suspected that's why we we're getting such high winds yesterday even though we were like 275 mi from the center.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Don't sweat it.

Half the arm-chair QBs were wrong, including myself.

The majority of the experts were wrong.

The majority of the computer models were wrong.


NHC botched this forecast the worst I've ever seen them in 10 or 15 years.

The past 10 years they've been almost perfect, but this one was just totally blown.


Yes this was one crazy system...even for the NHC...
Quoting RTSplayer:


"This statement is true and unprovable."



Postulates usually are :P Unprovable anyway.
Quoting charlottefl:



Must be, kinda suspected that's why we we're getting such high winds yesterday even though we were like 275 mi from the center.


We had a 56 mph wind yesterday and a 54 mph wind today. Southwest Regional Airport in Ft. Myers. I'm right by that location in S. Fort Myers.

Right now the wind is blowing 20mph with justs to 38 mph.
But we'll have to see what kind of gust we get with the next line of showers that come through.

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI (T1206)
3:00 AM JST June 27 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Doksuri (1004 hPa) is located at 14.7N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
===========================

24 HRS: 17.4N 125.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 19.3N 121.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 21.4N 118.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea

Could be a close brush for Hong Kong...



622. Jax82
She's makin landfall.

Hi everybody....it looks like Debbie is nearing landfall
Tween here and here


Looks like aspectre nailed it at Horseshoe Beach! An hour ahead of time, but the most accurate prediction so far :P


Quoting Jax82:
She's makin landfall.

Good afternoon everyone!
Over the past couple days Dr. Greg Forbes said the highest winds from Debby were over S.W. Florida and West Central Fl.
This was at 3000 ft above the ground with winds between 60-70mph.

That's why the tornado threat was greatest over the S.W. and West coast of Fl.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Brian's postulate.


When the forecast models for a tropical system are more or less equally divided between a typical climatological track and an alternate unusual track the climatological track is more likely to occur.


That's more of a theorem; postulates are accepted as truth.
Last comment for today.The only two forecaster's that can't be run off this blog unless they have extremely thick skin are the NHC and Dr. Masrer's. I am just thankful for the few that suck it up and take all the crap from the idiots.You know I am truly sorry for some of you, obliviously you did listen probably to your mother when she said , if don't have something nice to say don't say anything at all. Case closed.
Are the models picking up on any other development after Debbie?
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Been a while since I checked in. Just my observation, but it appears as if Debby has started a move to the ENE/NE based on satellite imagery. And she is hanging tough with numerous low-topped bands rotating around the center. Thinking perhaps landfall around Horseshoe Beach, FL (between Keaton Beach and Cedar Key).


Posted by myself at 1:54pm. Not to toot my own horn or anything.
Quoting wxgeek723:


That's more of a theorem; postulates are accepted as truth.


Maybe I should have chosen the word 'hypothesis'.
Remember that the NHC doesn't officially call it "landfall" until the center of the storm crosses the coastline. Since Debby's center is so large, it will take some time.
Quoting susieq110:

The Daily Wind-Up
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
Another link, huh? Do you ever plan to post anything of import, or is it your intention to just spam this forum with your URL (while giving your site a really bad name)? Not cool, friend...
Debby does appear to be flaring up a little bit this afternoon...eerily similar to what it did yesterday.
is there any chance that Debbie could hit the east coast later in the forecast period?
Quoting RickWPB:
Remember that the NHC doesn't officially call it "landfall" until the center of the storm crosses the coastline. Since Debby's center is so large, it will take some time.


I thought the time of landfall is when the center of the center makes landfall. Not when the whole center crosses the coast.
Quoting Jax82:
Debby looks elongated at this hour, and it does appear she will be making it ashore soon. Being in Jax, it looks like all the rain is to the N and E of her, we've already had the rainiest June day on record here yesterday, and more on the way.

Hey, have been checking in to jax news 4 online to see how you lot are doing up there. Wow for the east side of the state I think everyone has forgot about you. Major floods, sink holes, homes underwater, rivers well over flood stage and I think a one day rainfall record. Yowza

Quoting Neapolitan:
Another link, huh? Do you ever plan to post anything of import, or is it your intention to just spam this forum with your URL (while giving your site a really bad name)? Not cool, friend...

Some people struggle with unique content generation.
Debby was the biggest forecasting headache since Fay...at least. It's absurd that people are bashing others for not nailing where it was going and how strong it would be.
Quoting AllStar17:
Debby does appear to be flaring up a little bit this afternoon...eerily similar to what it did yesterday.


That would be very ugly for the JAX metro area if that happens. JAX has had a foot of rain already I believe.
Message to those of you in North Florida:




AP Photo/the Florida Times Union/Kelly Jordan  From Yahoo News:
http://news.yahoo.com/photos/tropical-storm-debby -heads-for-florida-slideshow/message-referring-rai nfall-tropical-storm-system-displayed-san-photo-03 1920325.html
Quoting LargoFl:


According to that image, the NE GOMEX water temps took a big hit
New Port Richey, Fla., -- Pasco County’s evacuation order has been extended for communities at risk to flooding between the Anclote and Pithlachascotee Rivers (see map attached). The boundaries are as follows:
o The western boundary of the evacuation area is the Anclote River/Thys Rd.
o The eastern boundary of the evacuation is Little Rd.
o The northern boundary is Plathe Rd.
o The southern boundary begins on Perrine Ranch Road and runs east to the intersection of Perrine Ranch Road, turns north on Seven Springs Boulevard, then runs east along Mitchell Ranch Road and continues east on S.R. 54 to the intersection of S.R. 54 and Little Rd.
o The evacuation order also includes other locations ordered evacuated by local authorities due to conditions posing a threat to life, health or safety.

Communities located in the area need to evacuate and emergency responders are arriving by boat and vehicles to assist residents.

Residents who can evacuate independently are encouraged to take their disaster kit in their vehicle and drive to friends, family or hotels out of the flooded area. Anyone needing shelter can go to:

o Chasco Elementary, 7906 Ridge Road, Port Richey
o Fasano Shelter, 11611 Denton Ave., in Hudson.

Persons with special needs or pets should go to the Fasano shelter. Residents who need assistance to evacuate their home should call the Resident Information Center at 727-847-8959. If you have water entering your home and need life-saving assistance call 9-1-1. Rains from Tropical Storm Debby have caused flooding above the 100 year flood level. Pasco County remains under a Tropical Storm Warning.

In addition sand and sandbags are available at:

• West Pasco Government Center, 7536 State St., New Port Richey
• 7918 Rhodes Rd., Hudson, Fire Station #10,
• 2952 Seven Springs Blvd., New Port Richey, Fire Station #17
• Mitchell Field Park located at 4711 Little Rd, New Port Richey
• 6907 Dairy Rd., Zephyrhills, Fire Station#1

County services open today include:
• County Offices
• Clerk’s Office Courts
• Schools
• PCPT Transit Buses are running regular routes

For further information, please contact the Resident Information Center at 727-847-8959 or visit www.pascocountyfl.net.

Map
⇐Previous
Quoting AllStar17:
Debby does appear to be flaring up a little bit this afternoon...eerily similar to what it did yesterday.

Hopefully it will be no where as bad as yesterday!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Debby was the biggest forecasting headache since Fay...at least. It's absurd that people are bashing others for not nailing where it was going and how strong it would be.

Agreed.
Debby continues to unleash torrential rainfall across northern Florida and southern Georgia as the storm prepares to make landfall this evening. (The latest reports can be found below.)

Major flooding is occurring across portions of Florida as unrelenting rain continues. One to two feet of rain has already poured down across portions of northern and central Florida. Sanborn, Fla., received 20.10 inches of rain in 24 hours alone.

For a larger version of this map (with times in CDT), please visit the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.

Emergency management officials issued a voluntary evacuation notice late Monday evening for residents in low-lying areas of Wakulla County, Fla., due to dangerous flooding.

The Florida Highway patrol closed a portion of I-10, the main interstate highway through northern Florida, early Tuesday morning.

Unfortunately, up to another foot of rain will be unleashed across north-central Florida.

The storm has also spawned nearly two dozen tornadoes, which downed power lines, damaged homes and businesses and flipped semi trucks. More damaging winds from thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible as Debby churns in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Central Florida has the greatest risk of severe weather.
.
Quoting LargoFl:


Its gonna take a while for the GOM to warm back up
live.oak.fl.downtown.under.water.love.wanne.time
Quoting weatherlover94:


Its gonna take a while for the GOM to warm back up

Not really. Much of the water that Debby "cooled" is shallow. Also, consider this is the end of June, and it is not uncommon for temps in MUCH deeper water to rise 1-2 degrees in a few days during May. The GOM will have no issues warming back up.
Quoting weatherlover94:


Its gonna take a while for the GOM to warm back up


Not with the amount of heat set to build eastward over the next few days.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Not with the amount of heat set to build eastward over the next few days.



yea true
Quoting islander101010:
live.oak.fl.downtown.under.water.love.wanne.time
yes alot of downtowns under water,never saw a storm dump so much rain, and may well dump another foot or more of rain..going to be flooding all over the place even more than now, the rivers are just now overflowing their banks..add another 6-12 inches of rain?..whew...making weather history here
Quoting jeffs713:

Not really. Much of the water that Debby "cooled" is shallow. Also, consider this is the end of June, and it is not uncommon for temps in MUCH deeper water to rise 1-2 degrees in a few days during May. The GOM will have no issues warming back up.

Yeah, the SST's can warm and cool in a relatively short period.
Yeah she's going to give us another blob to the NE of her and keep driving weakened squall lines through south central Florida. The blob to the NE of Debby today won't be much to look at according at to the NHC which has Debby weakening to TD status pretty shortly. Not going to strengthen over Florida the next two days either. In my opinion Debby will be catching up to some of the energy she ejected. If she can suck some of that energy back into her circulation she may actually strengthen again.
5 years from now they will be saying..remember Debby!............................................ .................Hurricane Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1122 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS WITHIN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT ANYWHERE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9N...LONGITUDE 84.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 200 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE FL...OR ABOUT 130 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE FL. STORM MOTION WAS E OR
90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COASTLINE
IN APALACHEE BAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL
EXTENDS EAST OF THE CENTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK ANTICIPATES THE STORM
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM DEBBY REMAINS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8-14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH
3-6 INCHES ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HRS WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE ONGOING FLOODING. A LOW TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DO NOT LISTEN TO RUMORS OR UNINFORMED
OPINIONS. RATHER...SEEK AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...AND FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING. AVOID DRIVING OVER
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE AROUND 6 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

Quoting LargoFl:
yes alot of downtowns under water,never saw a storm dump so much rain, and may well dump another foot or more of rain..going to be flooding all over the place even more than now, the rivers are just now overflowing their banks..add another 6-12 inches of rain?..whew...making weather history here

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That would be very ugly for the JAX metro area if that happens. JAX has had a foot of rain already I believe.


Yep, we're pretty much under water already. Just had a pretty heavy band come through a few minutes ago.
Quoting flbeachgirl:


Yep, we're pretty much under water already. Just had a pretty heavy band come through a few minutes ago.
another foot or more of rain coming, this is going to be real bad in the next day or so
Quoting flbeachgirl:


Yep, we're pretty much under water already. Just had a pretty heavy band come through a few minutes ago.


I just added up the hourly rainfalls at JAX airport from Sunday through 2 p.m. today and got a total of 8.67" which is lower than I thought. But still more than enough. I'm gonna check again to see if I got it wrong.
663. yoboi
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Brian's postulate.


When the forecast models for a tropical system are more or less equally divided between a typical climatological track and an alternate unusual track the climatological track is more likely to occur.


when i first read this i thought it said Brian's prost**ute
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


We had a 56 mph wind yesterday and a 54 mph wind today. Southwest Regional Airport in Ft. Myers. I'm right by that location in S. Fort Myers.

Right now the wind is blowing 20mph with justs to 38 mph.
But we'll have to see what kind of gust we get with the next line of showers that come through.



True that, but we became SW Florida International Airport in 1993...although people still call it Regional! ;)

It's been gusty out here at the airport all day. I think I was outside during that 54 mph gust, it was wicked!
headline from msnbc news.....................................Debby's deluge: 2 feet of rain, thousands flee floods

2012 sets record for most named storms so early in Atlantic season
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Not with the amount of heat set to build eastward over the next few days.


but that is shallow heat, it will take till late july to warm up the depths to 28-29c+
Yeah I made a mistake. It's 10.69" at JAX airport starting Sunday.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


but that is shallow heat, it will take till late july to warm up the depths to 28-29c+
You guys seem to forget that water moves and some warm water might move in from surrounding areas.
It would take a parade of slow moving tropical systems to signifcantly have any long term impact on GOMEX water temps. Don't think Debby crossed any of the deep warm eddies (thankfully for Floridians), either.

BTW, I win the award for most misguided forecast track of Debby. I had her clear on the North coast of Mexico only making a glancing blow on the CONUS (South Texas). Ta-da!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I just added up the hourly rainfalls at JAX airport from Sunday through 2 p.m. today and got a total of 8.67" which is lower than I thought. But still more than enough. I'm gonna check again to see if I got it wrong.


The Jax airport is on the north side of town and I think most of the rain has been south of there, but I can't find the totals right now. I live on the southside close to the Intercoastal and work in Orange Park and we've been dumped on. And dumped on...and dumped on...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


but that is shallow heat, it will take till late july to warm up the depths to 28-29c+


A lot of that area is shallow. There are no depths.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FLC067-262100-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FF.W.0022.120626T1901Z-120626T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 255 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SR 51 SOUTH OF MAYO. ADDITIONALLY...SOME BUSINESSES
ARE EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING IN THE CITY OF MAYO.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MAYO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

* REPORT FLOODING OR FLOOD DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
Good news for us on the west side of the gulf.



Low 90s! that's a relief!
Quoting nofailsafe:
Good news for us on the west side of the gulf.



Low 90s! that's a relief!
yes you folks really had a heatwave going on
675. Jax82
This map tells a damp wet soggy story.



And we still have 2 more days of it.
Quoting nofailsafe:
Good news for us on the west side of the gulf.



Low 90s! that's a relief!

Happy for you!
Hopefully Debbie will move on out soon and Florida can start to dry up
Landfall.

Debby Drags ashore.

Quoting Jax82:
This map tells a damp wet soggy story.



And we still have 2 more days of it.
yes be careful up there,dont listen to the nay sayers, this is a wind and flooding rain event,heavy heavy rain
Quoting Jax82:
This map tells a damp wet soggy story.



And we still have 2 more days of it.

Hopefully Florida will have some time to dry out after Debby is gone!
They switched forecast areas? :P

000
FXUS64 KCRP 261725
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012


000
FXUS64 KEWX 261724 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1224 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Landfall.

Debby Drags ashore.

thank goodness..now speed up please and OUT of here
debby has made landfall in the big bend area of Florida. May have slowed down again though according to satellite. I could be wrong though...
Quoting Jax82:
This map tells a damp wet soggy story

And we still have 2 more days of it.


Well, on the bright side, the lake behind my house is no longer low...
Quoting nofailsafe:
Good news for us on the west side of the gulf.



Low 90s! that's a relief!


That's great news, actually. I'm happy for you!
I was going to come on here and give my thoughts on the next possible system. But after reading over the blog, I've changed my mind. I think I'll just go take a nap.


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1136 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1133 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E CURTIS MILL 30.01N 84.50W
06/26/2012 E28.78 INCH WAKULLA FL PUBLIC

UNOFFICIAL MEASUREMENT. STORM TOTAL. EMPTIED 7 INCH RAIN
GAUGE 4 TIMES WITH AN ADDITIONAL .78 INCHES THEREAFTER.

Link
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


but that is shallow heat, it will take till late july to warm up the depths to 28-29c+


You live in the south, right? Forgetting how strong and direct the sun is? The heat that I am referring to is the air temperatures. Acknowleging also the currents carrying warm water. That shallow of water swings on average of 1-3 degrees between the morning and evening (coolest to warmest, respectively) this time of year
Quoting Grothar:
I was going to come on here and give my thoughts on the next possible system. But after reading over the blog, I've changed my mind. I think I'll just go take a nap.




I think highly of your thoughts so I hope you change your mind.


However if you feel a nap is necessary at your age......


*runs*


Quoting Grothar:
I was going to come on here and give my thoughts on the next possible system. But after reading over the blog, I've changed my mind. I think I'll just go take a nap.



wise choice.
Here in Ellenton,FL(near Bradenton) it's been another windy day, quick passing rain showers, but mostly just wind. We're slowly starting the drying out process here.
Quoting Grothar:
I was going to come on here and give my thoughts on the next possible system. But after reading over the blog, I've changed my mind. I think I'll just go take a nap.




Whatever you were going to forecast you were wrong:)


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261902Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN A
HOT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE
MID-LEVEL NELYS...UPDRAFTS COULD COALESCE INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER
WITH THREATS OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

DISCUSSION...CU HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND HILL COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG THE WRN
GULF COAST MAY BE ENHANCING ASCENT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW
REACHING 100-105...MLCIN SHOULD BE WEAK WITH A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER PER ACARS DATA INVOF AUS. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT
TSTMS SHOULD FORM...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE/UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES BREEDS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE DEVELOPMENT
WILL FOCUS. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT MID-LEVEL NELYS
SAMPLED IN THE LEDBETTER TX PROFILER WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZING UPDRAFTS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE
RISKS FOR SEVERE WIND AND SOME HAIL.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 06/26/2012


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29779993 30519839 31169694 31319508 30339483 29149531
27999721 27599886 27869963 28460022 29090042 29779993
Quoting Jax82:
This map tells a damp wet soggy story.



And we still have 2 more days of it.


I give her a new nickname Downpour Debby!
Quoting flbeachgirl:


Well, on the bright side, the lake behind my house is no longer low...


Mine isn't either. LOL
Quoting jrweatherman:


Whatever you were going to forecast you were wrong:)


:)
Quoting oakland:
Here in Ellenton,FL(near Bradenton) it's been another windy day, quick passing rain showers, but mostly just wind. We're slowly starting the drying out process here.
much flooding down there?
My forecast for the rest of the season is as follows:

Light, followed by dark, in an alternating cycle. Some rain will fall from the sky, and it will be generally warm south of 35N, and east of 100W. It will begin to get colder starting in September, with the cold progressing from north to south.
Quoting 1900hurricane:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261902Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN A
HOT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE
MID-LEVEL NELYS...UPDRAFTS COULD COALESCE INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER
WITH THREATS OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

DISCUSSION...CU HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND HILL COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG THE WRN
GULF COAST MAY BE ENHANCING ASCENT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW
REACHING 100-105...MLCIN SHOULD BE WEAK WITH A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER PER ACARS DATA INVOF AUS. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT
TSTMS SHOULD FORM...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE/UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES BREEDS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE DEVELOPMENT
WILL FOCUS. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT MID-LEVEL NELYS
SAMPLED IN THE LEDBETTER TX PROFILER WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZING UPDRAFTS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE
RISKS FOR SEVERE WIND AND SOME HAIL.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 06/26/2012


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29779993 30519839 31169694 31319508 30339483 29149531
27999721 27599886 27869963 28460022 29090042 29779993

Nuh-uh...

And I wonder if we hit the convective temp today...
Chat, Gro?
Quoting LargoFl:
much flooding down there?


Where I am no except for the outer islands like Anna Maria.
Please tell me none of the long range models show anything near Florida July 6 - 11

Already had 1 family vacation messed up! Plus Florida doesn't need any more rain and storm
Quoting jeffs713:

Nuh-uh...

And I wonder if we hit the convective temp today...
hope you folks get your rains, but watch out for that bad weather
Quoting oakland:


Where I am no except for the outer islands like Anna Maria.
ok ty
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach...



Good news for those in Florida! It appears both subsidence from Debby and a building ridge in her wake will completely dry out Florida Friday through next week. The only bad news is. It could possibly get real hot! Right now forecasters are being conservative with low-mid 90's, but I would not doubt them tweaking their temps on up towards the century mark!
My area only had about 8 inches of rain spread out over roughly 2 days and we were able to dissipate it off the roadways fairly quickly.
Quoting oakland:
My area only had about 8 inches of rain spread out over roughly 2 days and we were able to dissipate it off the roadways fairly quickly.


That's good. Were you in a drought before this storm?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That's good. Were you in a drought before this storm?


Very much so but Debby has wiped out.
.............Howard franklin Bridge monday
Quoting jeffs713:

Nuh-uh...

And I wonder if we hit the convective temp today...

Well, we are at 104 at the moment with probably two more hours of heating left today. I'd say it is at least plausible. :P

As for the impulse itself, it's way up there, at the 200-300 mb level. In fact, it looks like it might be from the same ULL that has been shearing Debby!



McCook, NE:
hot

Hill City, KS:
hot

Corpus Christi, TX:
hot

Denver, CO:
hot
Wunderground Iphone app location

102 degree air temp
75 degree dewpoint
117 degree heat index
Any rotation in Central Atlantic?
Debby has managed to double her speed since yesterday....up to 6 mph now....from 3 mph. XD
Patches of blue sky starting to emerge in the skies over Tallahassee; haven't seen that since Saturday.
Quoting RitaEvac:

Yup, there go a few of them. I imagine that they'll generally be quick pulse type storms, but they could produce some strong winds due to the huge dewpoint depressions that often result when the temperatures get this hot.



And that skew T is of this morning's data, so just draw out the temp line along the dry adiabat to the 40*C line at the surface. That's how hot it is at the moment.
......................................hey guys..did you see THIS?...its for today..is there some NEW storm trying to form way down by mexico
NW side of Houston

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That would be very ugly for the JAX metro area if that happens. JAX has had a foot of rain already I believe.


We had seagulls bathing and floating around in our parking lot in Jax Beach yesterday and today, if that is any indication as to the amount of rain we have had.
726. cha0s
Getting dumped on again here on the westside of Jax. I've never seen this much rain in two days.
Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* Timing... gusty southwest winds will continue through early this
evening.

* Winds... southwest winds of 25 to 30 mph with frequent gusts of
40 to 45 mph.
WOUS64 KWNS 262018
WOU2

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC013-015-021-025-029-041-051-055-089-091-123-149 -157-163-175-
177-185-187-209-239-255-285-287-297-311-325-453-46 9-473-477-481-
493-270300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0432.120626T2025Z-120627T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATASCOSA AUSTIN BASTROP
BEE BEXAR BRAZOS
BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO
COMAL DEWITT FAYETTE
FORT BEND FRIO GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE
HAYS JACKSON KARNES
LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN MEDINA TRAVIS
VICTORIA WALLER WASHINGTON
WHARTON WILSON


ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...
Quoting Neapolitan:
McCook, NE:
hot

Hill City, KS:
hot

Corpus Christi, TX:
hot

Denver, CO:
hot


It's a good thing we're late into summer with those temps. Relief is on the way! <<<<< sarcasm

If only someone had predicted more frequent, intense and long-lasting heat waves.
Quoting LargoFl:
......................................hey guys..did you see THIS?...its for today..is there some NEW storm trying to form way down by mexico

Hey Largo...I'm not seeing much on satellite, but I'm not sure if the models are predicting development in that area.
Can a new CoC form to the northeast of the current one? In that big blob of activity off the GA coast?
ive been a member here for a long time but dont post often. i did want to comment on Debbie though. i live in lehigh acres, about 10 miles east of ft myers and ive been through alot of storms here...ernesto, charlie, wilma, fay, jeanne being some of them. i just cant believe how windy it has gotten over the last day here. it seems as the further away and weaker debbie is getting, the stronger the winds have been getting. we have been getting alot of benifitial rain here, luckily its been mostly spread out with the exceptions of the heavier stuff when we got the feeder bands and squall lines. there is some coastal flooding and some severe erosion on the barrier islands here and when going over the caloosahatchee river this morning, the tide was very high, practically flooding. i cant imagine the flooding further north.

anyhow, i must say this storm has been full of surprises. and it should be a loud wakeup call for those who think lightly of tropical systems. if a minimal tropical storm can conjure up this much destruction, imagine what a much stronger storm meandering in the gulf can do. the people around tampa should especially take heed. this storm showed the vulnerability of the highway system. closed bridges and expressways limits access and more importantly, evacuation routes.
Is Debby ahead of Chris in ACE yet? She's been a TS for a while now.
So did the Tampa shields fail because of the extreme rainfall or do the shields only apply to hurricane force winds?
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Largo...I'm not seeing much on satellite, but I'm not sure if the models are predicting development in that area.


Good afternoon nigel. The Euro develops at EPAC and this is day 10. GFS develops on longer range.

Very wind heavy watch, about what I expected.



WWUS40 KWNS 262024
WWP2

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

WS 0432
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 05025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2.

$$
Quoting Slamguitar:
Is Debby ahead of Chris in ACE yet? She's been a TS for a while now.


Not yet but almost is reaching Chris.


03L (Chris)

Operational

2.7200



04L (Debby)

Operational

2.3225
Rain!?

The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch
432 in effect until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
areas

In southeast Texas this watch includes 10 counties

Austin Brazos Burleson
Colorado Fort Bend Grimes
Jackson Waller Washington
Wharton

This includes the cities of... Bellville... Brenham... Brookshire...
Bryan... Caldwell... College Station... Columbus... Eagle Lake...
Edna... El Campo... Hempstead... Lake Somerville... Missouri City...
Navasota... Pierce... Prairie View... Richmond... Rosenberg... Sealy...
Sugar Land... Weimar and Wharton.
tx floridafisherman...you are so right! Just with the wind here in orange city fl we have had trees down.
Quoting floridafisherman:
ive been a member here for a long time but dont post often. i did want to comment on Debbie though. i live in lehigh acres, about 10 miles east of ft myers and ive been through alot of storms here...ernesto, charlie, wilma, fay, jeanne being some of them. i just cant believe how windy it has gotten over the last day here. it seems as the further away and weaker debbie is getting, the stronger the winds have been getting. we have been getting alot of benifitial rain here, luckily its been mostly spread out with the exceptions of the heavier stuff when we got the feeder bands and squall lines. there is some coastal flooding and some severe erosion on the barrier islands here and when going over the caloosahatchee river this morning, the tide was very high, practically flooding. i cant imagine the flooding further north.

anyhow, i must say this storm has been full of surprises. and it should be a loud wakeup call for those who think lightly of tropical systems. if a minimal tropical storm can conjure up this much destruction, imagine what a much stronger storm meandering in the gulf can do. the people around tampa should especially take heed. this storm showed the vulnerability of the highway system. closed bridges and expressways limits access and more importantly, evacuation routes.


The wind field is reminiscent of a subtropical cyclone with strongest winds far removed from the center. However, there is no indication that it is subtropical. It just has a really strange wind field. Also bear in mind, as I mentioned earlier.... there has been more sun to the southeast of the storm (thanks to dry air entrainment), therefore it is allowing the stronger winds just off the surface to mix down.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good afternoon nigel. The Euro develops at EPAC and this is day 10. GFS develops on longer range.

yes something to watch for in the coming days..i truly hope if it does form..it goes to texas, they NEED it and we for sure dont
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northern Fort Bend County in southeast Texas...
western Harris County in southeast Texas...
southeastern Waller County in southeast Texas...

* until 415 PM CDT

* at 322 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing penny size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 12
miles northeast of Katy... or 7 miles west of Jersey Village... and
moving southwest at 20 mph.

* Locations in the Severe Thunderstorm Warning include but are not
limited to Brookshire.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Is Debby ahead of Chris in ACE yet? She's been a TS for a while now.
Year-to-date:

CHRIS: 2.7675
DEBBY: 2.3225
BERYL: 2.1600
ALBERTO: 1.3750

ACE

Of course, if the NHC maintains Debby as a tropical storm at 5, her ACE will go up a bit. But at Debby's present strength, it would take another 24 hours to overtake Chris.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good afternoon nigel. The Euro develops at EPAC and this is day 10. GFS develops on longer range.


Thanks for the info, Tropics. What is the weather like in Puerto Rico at the moment?
Quoting luvtogolf:
So did the Tampa shields fail because of the extreme rainfall or do the shields only apply to hurricane force winds?
no the shields held, no hurricane came in..lol
106 in Austin, c'mon storms POP!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting nigel20:

Thanks for the info, Tropics. What is the weather like in Puerto Rico at the moment?


A few showers moving thru. I posted on your Caribbean blog what may be a better chance for plenty of rain as an active wave (Now around 37w) will move thru by Monday.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Looks like Tomball is getting a little attention.

Nope. Initiated near my house, but no rain fell. Areas 2 miles to my SW got dumped on, tho.
109.8 here at 330 pm, 32 percent humidity, Under Severe Storm Watch until 10 pm Caused by the Intense Heat over Texas
Quoting RitaEvac:






Is that wet stuff? To bad it won't make to the coast...
I can't wait until the 5 p.m. advisory
Quoting Slamguitar:
Is Debby ahead of Chris in ACE yet? She's been a TS for a while now.

Not quite yet.
Don't you hate it when you hear thunder, look outside and see gusty winds but no rain, and then check your local news source to find out that firefighters are responding to not one, not two, but FOUR new wildfires in your home county? Yeah, I hate that too - it's gonna be a long summer...




Above you can see the mostly dry thunderstorms attempting to set Boulder County on fire...
Quoting floridafisherman:
ive been a member here for a long time but dont post often. i did want to comment on Debbie though. i live in lehigh acres, about 10 miles east of ft myers and ive been through alot of storms here...ernesto, charlie, wilma, fay, jeanne being some of them. i just cant believe how windy it has gotten over the last day here. it seems as the further away and weaker debbie is getting, the stronger the winds have been getting. we have been getting alot of benifitial rain here, luckily its been mostly spread out with the exceptions of the heavier stuff when we got the feeder bands and squall lines. there is some coastal flooding and some severe erosion on the barrier islands here and when going over the caloosahatchee river this morning, the tide was very high, practically flooding. i cant imagine the flooding further north.

anyhow, i must say this storm has been full of surprises. and it should be a loud wakeup call for those who think lightly of tropical systems. if a minimal tropical storm can conjure up this much destruction, imagine what a much stronger storm meandering in the gulf can do. the people around tampa should especially take heed. this storm showed the vulnerability of the highway system. closed bridges and expressways limits access and more importantly, evacuation routes.

Agreed. I think we some times underestimate the effects weaker of Tropical systems...hopefully lessons will be learnt from Tropical Storm Debby, so that they could negate the effects of a future storms.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is nearly as bad as your neighbor across the street getting two inches of rain and all you get is the sunshine and the heat. .... Don't laugh. I watched my neighbor get 1/4" and I did not get a drop. Yep! Right on the edge, I was. In more ways than one!

Lol. Of course, right now, this means that my house got the outflow and cooling from the storm, while people that got just a little rain now have stupidly high humidity.
Quoting LargoFl:

It's not like any of Debby's
bath water
is cold...
I-10 going in it now



(Picks in head to see what's been going on)....mmmm Let's see.Why not to bash Levi speeches(some of you all need a 4Qing Grammy).Debbie is still alive(Those poor people in Florida are tired of you Debbie!!!).What's new?.
Quoting flbeachgirl:


The Jax airport is on the north side of town and I think most of the rain has been south of there, but I can't find the totals right now. I live on the southside close to the Intercoastal and work in Orange Park and we've been dumped on. And dumped on...and dumped on...
I'm out towards the Beaches and I've drained my pool twice...8" each time. I'm guessing we've had around 12-16" here.
Quoting LargoFl:
no the shields held, no hurricane came in..lol


Got it. But I will say that Sunday's rain event was one of the most intense weather events I have ever experienced.
Quoting jeffs713:

Lol. Of course, right now, this means that my house got the outflow and cooling from the storm, while people that got just a little rain now have stupidly high humidity.
I'm not sure what your glass is half full of, but I'd like some myself.
Quoting bluheelrtx:
I'm not sure what your glass is half full of, but I'd like some myself.

When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade... but be sure to save some to squirt into people's eyes when the time is right.

(At least I'm *trying* to stay positive... Tomball gets screwed more often than not with rain events during a drought)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


A few showers moving thru. I posted on your Caribbean blog what may be a better chance for plenty of rain as an active wave (Now around 37w) will move thru by Monday.

I'm hoping for the some rain as well...the eastern end of Jamaica is now experiencing drought conditions and water limitations, so any rain would be welcome at the moment.
.
Advisory taking a while to get out.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Got it. But I will say that Sunday's rain event was one of the most intense weather events I have ever experienced.
yes its the most intense ive ever seen either..just imagine..if along with all we went thru..there was also..along with that..125-150 mph winds..geez....i just cannot imaginge being here, in my home..with THAT coming thru here...now i know..to leave and come back when its over
Quoting RitaEvac:
White out

so thats a good thing for you guys..rain at last
036
WTNT24 KNHC 262058
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC TUE JUN 26 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND FROM MEXICO BEACH TO WEST OF STEINHATCHEE HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM STEINHATCHEE TO ENGLEWOOD

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 83.4W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 83.4W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 83.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.7N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 79.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.3N 77.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.4N 74.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 33.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.6N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 83.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Omg another day of full-on rain. I love rain but this is ridiculous!! Front garden is completely flooded. Thank goodness there are no winds to come or the trees would easily fall after such a thorough soaking.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE...COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING THREATS REMAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
The meteorological conditions that led to this extreme rain event were a combination of TS Debby and a frontal boundary to her N and NE. If it were either alone, it would not have produced the heavy rainfall and flooding that occurred. It was this same frontal boundary and the associated upper-level westerly high wind shear that stripped the energy from Debby and moved it toward the east and northeast.

This is why it seems like such an unusual tropical storm. Now why they interacted in this way, well that is above my pay grade. Perhaps someone else can explain it.

Click on the main US map on the Wunderground main page and you will see the blue frontal boundary marked just to the north of where all the heavy rain is still occurring.
...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE...COASTAL AND INLAND FLOODING THREATS REMAIN...
5:00 PM EDT Tue Jun 26
Location: 29.5°N 83.4°W
Moving: ENE at 6 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

AN AIR FORCE MISSION THAT ENDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MEASURED
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED
ON THOSE DATA...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAINING IN BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IN THE FACE OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...DEBBY IS GENERATING ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND HAS LESS THAN A
FULLY TROPICAL APPEARANCE. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
LARGE REGION OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO. THE PASSAGE OF DEBBY OVER LAND...IN ADDITION TO THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS CITED ABOVE...WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEBBY TO WEAKEN TO
A DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS. AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER WATERS
FAVOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE
AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

AS ADVERTISED BY DYNAMICAL MODELS...DEBBY IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/05. THE
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS RELATED TO AN INCREASING WESTERLY MID-
TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE GFS
BRIEFLY SLOWS THE CYCLONE MOTION IN THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...AND PERHAPS AS A RESULT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH
FAILS TO CAPTURE DEBBY AS STRONGLY AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOT AS
QUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BOTH BECAUSE OF
CONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.5N 83.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 27/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 29.7N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 30.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 28/1800Z 30.3N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 31.4N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 33.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 36.6N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
That new forecast track almost looks like Tropical Storm Leslie in 2000, except it started further inland
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE...COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING THREATS REMAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

Hey MA...do you think that Debby will restrengthen after traversing Florida?
"THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOT AS
QUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BOTH BECAUSE OF
CONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS."
Quoting LargoFl:
so thats a good thing for you guys..rain at last


over a square mile......
Quoting nigel20:

Hey MA...do you think that Debby will restrengthen after traversing Florida?

If she survives the trip, I think so... I wouldn't be surprised to see her near hurricane status briefly since conditions should be favorable... I'll say a 65mph second peak.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If she survives the trip, I think so... I wouldn't be surprised to see her near hurricane status briefly since conditions should be favorable... I'll say a 65mph second peak.

I thinks so too..thanks much!
NHC no longer expecting this to weaken to T.D over Florida and the chances of this becoming a Hurricane by Friday/Saturday have gone up. I think as Debby moves closer and closer to the energy she threw off the last three days she may be able to access it again and restart intensification. I see our blob just to the NE of Debby is looking a little stronger than a couples hours ago too. Going to be a very interesting night.
Quoting MrMixon:
Don't you hate it when you hear thunder, look outside and see gusty winds but no rain, and then check your local news source to find out that firefighters are responding to not one, not two, but FOUR new wildfires in your home county? Yeah, I hate that too - it's gonna be a long summer...




Above you can see the mostly dry thunderstorms attempting to set Boulder County on fire...


Don't know if you saw this but Lamar set a new temp. record of 107 today..
Compare that to the worlds highest temp for today was 116 in Marrakech,Morocco..just 9 degrees above Lamar..according to WU
Very hot conditions in Colorado..
PS..The homepage here at WU shows Lamar now at 110..
Lamar CO
So is Lake City Florida really about to be a city under a lake. Talk about prophetic naming of a city. If anyone is from there please stay safe and listen to all warnings it looks like it could double up there from yesterdays rain totals, that's scary.
Link
Firefighters battling 6-acre wildfire near Bison Drive west of Boulder

Well crud... I know most eyes are on Debby right now, but it sounds like at least one of those brand new fires in Boulder County has gotten enough momentum to warrant an air tanker and helicopter response. Just did a quickie check and this 6-acre-and-growing fire is a mere SIX miles east of my house.

Just have to focus on work a couple more hours and then I can rush home to review my evacuation preparations.

Think humid thoughts for us out here - looks like Ma' Nature has nothing for us in the short-term:

Quoting cheaterwon:
So is Lake City Florida really about to be a city under a lake. Talk about prophetic naming of a city. If anyone is from there please stay safe and listen to all warnings it looks like it could double up there from yesterdays rain totals, that's scary.
Link
great.people.up.there
Quoting pcola57:


Don't know if you saw this but Lamar set a new temp. record of 107 today..
Compare that to the worlds highest temp for today was 116 in Marrakech,Morocco..just 9 degrees above Lamar..according to WU
Very hot conditions in Colorado..
PS..The homepage here at WU shows Lamar now at 110..
Lamar CO


Oh geez, no I hadn't heard that. If I hear "well at least it's a dry heat" one more time I think I might scream... dry heat is the last thing our tinderbox forests need right now.
I just want to say that I know a lot of people have been talking about people bashing the NHC, mets, other bloggers, etc about the "blown forecast of Debby" but what I will personally remember about Debby is what a great comfort it was for me being alone with 3 dogs and only moved here in Dec. oh, and did I mention that while I have been a "flippin' Floridan :) my whole life (56 years) I have always lived more inland while longing for the beach. I was sitting here on a barrier island across the street from the Gulf but I had people here feeding me current info and visuals and many people going through the same or similar or have been there before. I also enjoyed the humor during the stressful hours even the trolls did not diminish the experience for me and I know that is saying a lot :) Nothing is perfect not man or his machines :) but I want to say thank you to everyone here for being here with me and what a cool weather experience it was!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


A few showers moving thru. I posted on your Caribbean blog what may be a better chance for plenty of rain as an active wave (Now around 37w) will move thru by Monday.


Really hope so, guys. It's getting so dry here in St. Thomas. The water trucks are starting their convoys over here!

Lindy
Quoting icmoore:
I just want to say that I know a lot of people have been talking about people bashing the NHC, mets, other bloggers, etc about the "blown forecast of Debby" but what I will personally remember about Debby is what a great comfort it was for me being alone with 3 dogs and only moved here in Dec. oh, and did I mention that while I have been a "flippin' Floridan :) my whole life (56 years) I have always lived more inland while longing for the beach. I was sitting here on a barrier island across the street from the Gulf but I had people here feeding me current info and visuals and many people going through the same or similar or have been there before. I also enjoyed the humor during the stressful hours even the trolls did not diminish the experience for me and I know that is saying a lot :) Nothing is perfect not man or his machines :) but I want to say thank you to everyone here for being here with me and what a cool weather experience it was!
and we will be here to do it again the next time as well
she crossing the land now
leaving the cooler upwelled waters behind
and moves out over fresher warm water
and a stream for good measure