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Tropical Storm Debby growing in size and strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:24 PM GMT on June 24, 2012

Tropical storm warnings are flying from Alabama to the Panhandle of Florida and along much of Southeast Louisiana coast, as Tropical Storm Debby inches to the north at 2 mph. The heaviest rains of Debby have moved ashore along much of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with up to two inches of radar-estimated rainfall in the Apalachicola, Florida area so far. Several buoys to the north and east of the center of Debby are receiving tropical storm-force winds, including SGOF1 (56 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 9 am EDT) and buoy 42022, 100 miles off the coast from Tampa (42 mph sustained winds at 7am EDT.) Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of 25 - 45 mph winds off the Southeast Louisiana coast. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Debby at 5,000 feet found an area of 60 mph surface winds about 100 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida at 7am EDT. Visible satellite loops show the classic signature of a medium-strength tropical storm undergoing substantial wind shear. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are all on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear that is driving dry air to the southwest of the storm into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. However, Debby is steadily overcoming this dry air and wind shear, and the storm has increased in organization, size, and in intensity this morning. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of the rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby over coastal Florida.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Debby taken at 12:45 pm EDT Saturday June 23, 2012, before it became a tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, with up to 10 inches likely in some regions along the coast from Southeast Louisiana to Pensacola, Florida. Unfortunately, this part of the coast is not under drought, and does not need the rain. Farther to the east, along the rest of the Gulf Coast of Florida, moderate to severe drought prevails, and flooding from Debby will be less of an issue. The slow motion of Debby will also slow down intensification of the storm, since its winds are stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface that then cool down the storm. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby a 19% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Tuesday morning. Given the current increasing trends in Debby's organization and intensity, these odds should probably be closer to 50%.

Steering currents for Debby are very weak, resulting in an unusually large spread in the model forecasts for where the storm might go. Take your pick from the various model solutions: Debby could make landfall anywhere from South Texas to Tampa Bay. The official NHC track west towards Texas should definitely not be viewed as gospel.


Figure 3. Pick a model, any model: the model forecasts for Debby are all over the place, making the current official forecast a low-confidence one.

Debby's place in history
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been an observable large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Record heat in Colorado
On Saturday, for the second consecutive day, record heat scorched Colorado. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the 104° reading in Denver tied for the hottest June temperature on record in the city, last set on June 26, 1994. It was also just 1° short of the all-time record of 105° (set on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878.)

Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on Saturday, with 100°. The city has hit 100° four other times, most recently on July 24, 2003.

Pueblo, Co reached 106°, a daily record; this was just 2° shy of the monthly record of 108°. The all-time record is 109° on 7/13/2003.

Lamar, Co hit 109°, just 2° short of the all-time record of 111° set on 7/13/1934.

The Colorado heat did no favors for firefighters, who are struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. A new fire erupted Saturday in Estes Park, at the boundary of Rocky Mountain National Park, and destroyed 21 homes.

Jeff Masters
High Park Wildfire
High Park Wildfire
Fire burns trees on the High Park wildfire near Livermore, Colo., on Tuesday, June 19, 2012. The wildfire has burned over 180 homes. The fire already has destroyed at least 189 homes since it was sparked by lightning June 9. Incident commander Bill Hahnenberg said it could be weeks or even months before it's finally controlled. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)
Sunrise Colors on Navarre Beach ahead of Tropical Storm Debby01
Sunrise Colors on Navarre Beach ahead of Tropical Storm Debby01
A Bit of Little Debby
A Bit of Little Debby
See the old Blue Heron standing on top of the light post on the Pier? And notice how many fishing lines are in the water....and that big SPLASH wave under the pier. "Little" DEBBY is letting us know she's nearby.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 954Soxfan:
Gosh, you would think the way everyone is talking on here we a had a CAT 5 landfall around the corner. C'mon guys get it together. I will hate to see this blog when we do get a dangerous storm. Wow!
You in Mass. Or Illinois?
2502. LargoFl
Quoting BahaHurican:
Something I've been wanting to say all day is that the Pinellas County area is one of the areas in FL that haven't had heavy rain for a long time. Ditto on the hurricane impacts. Notwithstanding the damage to people's homes, streets, businessess and beachfronts, the wx seen today is NOWHERE near as bad as it could be, nor are the impacts as destructive as they will be if this keeps up for another 24 hours. Ever heard the phrase "you ain't seen nothin' yet"?

Pay attention.

SOME PEOPLE ARE OVERREACTING. Yes, it's bad, worse perhaps than some were led to expect. Yes, a power outtage may occur. However, it could, and likely WILL, get worse.

IOW, calm down.

THAT is what press was trying to get at, in a humourous sort of way.

seems to me YOU were over reacting a few weeks ago with YOUR storm
Quoting Titoxd:
Cone o' Doom becomes the Circle o' Doom



Almost a full week...
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What doesn't make landfall until Wed?! @____@
Quoting CybrTeddy:
They seem to have dropped the idea of hurricane, but only because of the possibility of up-welling, landfall around 7pm Wednesday.
I don't really see upwelling as a problem to be honest. A moderate tropical storm draining the northern Gulf of heat content?
Been off for days, go from S TX impact to this....Epic model failure and confidence in NHC.



2507. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Wow. New forecast track has Debby still over the panhandle on FRIDAY!?!?!? That would be EPIC flooding.... hope that is not the case.

Also, that would likely mean pretty poor weather for the entire SE coast on one of the busiest beach weekends of the year.... Hope this thing just gets picked up by the trough and moved on out. But that doesn't seem too likely....

Start building your arc's if you live in N Florida and believe this latest forecast track...
2510. meg1506
Are they opening up any shelters in the pinellas or hillsborough county schools?
ABOUT 90 DEGREE SHIFT SO FAR IN THE TRACK... not even with LEE was year
2512. Patrap
You are like a hurricane
There's calm in your eye.
And I'm gettin' blown away
To somewhere safer
where the feeling stays.
I want to love you but
I'm getting blown away.


Quoting GTcooliebai:
What doesn't make landfall until Wed?! @____@


so close to land to make landfall on Wed?
2515. zillaTX
Quoting LargoFl:


The official forecast no longer brings Debby westward
along the northern Gulf of Mexico and instead keeps the cyclone
meandering over the northeastern Gulf for the next 3 to 4 days.

That is going to be some serious flooding. This one needs to move on down the line wow.
2516. LargoFl
is there just a Florida weather blog around?
2517. GPTGUY
Quoting shfr173:
remember Elana headed back west after parking 50 miles off tampa for three days



Can you imagine if this blog would have been around back in 1985 during Elena! Yikes!
Quoting Tazmanian:
YAWN when the next storm


You're joking right?
2519. Buhdog
3 days meandering? If some rain bands set up shop of FL...this will be very nasty. ughhhhhh
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You're joking right?


yes
2521. Dakster
Wasn't Charley another example of needing to not focus on the exact track and looking out for an intensifying storm.
WOOWW......I never see a storm stay in the same place 5 days
I wonder if we are done here in Miami Dade County,or if that very strong line of thunder storms coming from the South will reach the South Florida Miami area????,no much rain today here in South Florida very cloudy!,with the storm seating stationary for days I will ask the expert if we can expect more rain for us here in East South Florida,we are taking vacations by the end of next week,thank you for any comments about this.
Quoting wilmingtonistoast:
Does anyone have a Forecaster Avila rookie card they would like to sell?


Iremember the name Avila from way back? maybe Im mistaken,seems like hes been there many years?
Debby's rains just knocked over a tree here in Mount Dora, FL.
I think Kman drew that map.... : )
CHANCE OF RAIN is going up for me in S FL now
2528. ncstorm
The GFS has been predicting a three day stall for the longest..this was expected..
Quoting Tazmanian:


yes


Okay, I figured :P
Quoting Tazmanian:
YAWN when the next storm


Exactly.... People are getting to nutty with this weak storm!
2531. air360
What is interesting to me..and please correct me if im wrong...but none of the models show the storm basically drifting straight north. they either showed the storm going to the west or to the E/NE. Did they just split the difference and buy themselves time?
2532. spathy
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
This is not going to be pretty for Pensacola.

Wow!
That is flooding for sure and many Naders in North and Central Fl.
Again this is not good any way you slice it.
Stay safe folks.
If you are in a flood prone area please pay attention to warnings. And better yet,you know your area.
Get out if you have the slightest trepidation about flooding in your area.
well the good news is FL drought will be gone


i guss FL sould be carefull on what they wish for


2534. Patrap
Audubon Park-Patton St., New Orleans, LA

Temp 96.2 F

Feels Like 106 F

Dew 73 F

Hum 47%
Quoting air360:
What is interesting to me..and please correct me if im wrong...but none of the models show the storm basically drifting straight north. they either showed the storm going to the west or to the E/NE. Did they just split the difference and buy themselves time?


Yep - Sad. NHC has a new leadership I guess.
Quoting 954Soxfan:


Exactly.... People are getting to nutty with this weak storm!


Agreed. Epic is not exactly a word that comes to mind when I look at this storm or what it will do.
POSSIBLE West Palm Beach Tornado...looks like hurricane force winds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcBhXsvvWHw

Texas to Louisiana to Florida in 24 hours. Debby has GOT to be the hardest storm to track in modern history.

Watch the next model runs shift back to Texas.
2539. dearmas
We are getting hit HARD in Wesley Chapel (Pasco County)
Glad I bought gas for the generator this morning. Debby, welcome to Panama City Beach....
2541. bappit
Quoting RitaEvac:
Been off for days, go from S TX impact to this....Epic model failure and confidence in NHC.




This would be an epic failure if it were an epic storm--and it is not (unless it pulls an Allison) which is why the models have had so much trouble with it, methinks.
2542. guygee
Buckets of Rain, Buckets of Tears,
I got all them Buckets comin' outta my ears...
-------------------------------------------------

'Twas in another life time, one of of toil and blood,
When blackness was a virtue, the road was full of mud.
I came in from the wilderness, a creature void of form.
"Come in", she said, "I'll give you shelter from the storm".
2543. Patrap
Hot as Hades over on the Down stroke side here.

...phew.




Quoting presslord:


fair enough again...knuckles are bleeding now
Poor press... I thought it was funny...

I think I might have been more offended IF I didn't know ur thinking, or the fact that you live in a SC flood plain area, or have been more affected by TCs since 2004 than most Pinellas county residents.

OTOH, prolly not.

Entirely possible Debby could briefly become a Category 1 hurricane between the 48hr and 72hr forecast points.
Good grief, If Deb sits in that area until friday, holly molly that is around 5 days of rain in that area plus some. Double yowza
Quoting Tazmanian:
well the good news is FL drought will be gone


i guss FL sould be carefull on what they wish for


They wanted rain and now they got it..The HARD way just like I predicting would happen in the beginning of the year.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Texas to Louisiana to Florida in 24 hours. Debby has GOT to be the hardest storm to track in modern history.

Watch the next model runs shift back to Texas.


If for some reason it were to shift back to TX, NOBODY gonna believe it. Can't be shifting track radically in less than 24 hrs
Forecast blob (Circle) as reported by TWC.

Quoting 954Soxfan:


Exactly.... People are getting to nutty with this weak storm!


He was joking dude
WOW
Quoting MrstormX:
POSSIBLE West Palm Beach Tornado...looks like hurricane force winds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcBhXsvvWHw

Quoting Patrap:
Audubon Park-Patton St., New Orleans, LA

Temp 96.2 °F

Feels Like 106 °F D 73 °F Hum 47% r


It's one of those cherry ICEE day.
What the bleep??? Is it April? I just got back from my son's baseball tourney to this? Wow....ok...never seen such a drastic shift in six hours..but hey.....lol!
2554. jpsb
Quoting presslord:


true enough...a valid point.....I just get sick of the arm chair quarter backing...
The hysterics coming from some in Fla are becoming tiresome. If you live in an area subject to being by a Tropical system then you should realize you are going to be hit by a topical system. I do not recall all the wineing by Texans when Ike Wiped out entire towns and flooded 10 of thousands homes with a 14 foot storm surge and Cat 3 winds. Man up and deal with it. My goodness how bad can it be you are still posting on the internet! I shutter to think what noises I will hear if Debby strengthens to a hurricane before making land fall. Oh and all thin NHC bashing is in very poor taste too.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Entirely possible Debby could briefly become a Category 1 hurricane between the 48hr and 72hr forecast points.


But upwelling may become a big factor.
As long it's in water i will keep my guard up..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Texas to Louisiana to Florida in 24 hours. Debby has GOT to be the hardest storm to track in modern history.

Watch the next model runs shift back to Texas.

Doubt it. If the ridge begins to build in.. You may see them swing back to LA.
2558. Dakster
Quoting waterskiman:
Good grief, If Deb sits in that area until friday, holly molly that is around 5 days of rain in that area plus some. Double yowza


I could actually be living on an island rather then the south end of a peninsula if that keeps up!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Entirely possible Debby could briefly become a Category 1 hurricane between the 48hr and 72hr forecast points.



but at the same time with wind shear and dry air the COC or low that Debby has could open up and that would make it no longer a name storm whats the ch of that happening
Debby doesn't seem to be moving at all to me.
Quoting newportrinative:


Agreed. Epic is not exactly a word that comes to mind when I look at this storm or what it will do.


Sorry, but 7 straight days of rainfall associated with a TS can result in epic flooding, if their forecast pans out. Just because it isnt a hurricane doesn't mean there can't be costly results.... ever hear of Allison?
Quoting washingtonian115:
They wanted rain and now they got it..The HARD way just like I predicting would happen in the beginning of the year.



yep
Quoting RitaEvac:


If for some reason it were to shift back to TX, NOBODY gonna believe it. Can't be shifting track radically in less than 24 hrs


That's why the NHC moved the track in stages back to the East.
Could you imagine a cone pointed to Corpus Christi Tx and then a 180 degree switch with the cone facing N.E. FL.

This morning many bloggers predicted that THC would move the cone in 2 stages back to Fl. And that's what they did.
Quoting Tazmanian:



but at the same time with wind shear and dry air the COC or low that Debby has could open up and that would make it no longer a name storm whats the ch of that happening

1%.

Good afternoon...big change from yesterday. Still trying to catch up to what happened in the past day...
2567. duranta
Here we go loop de loop in the gulf.
Memorable storms: Alberto 1994, Allison 2001, Fay 2008... All Tropical Storms, extensive damage in terms of flooding. Never underestimate a Tropical Storm, no matter how strong or weak. Remember, it doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause major problems.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1%.


ok
2570. Dakster
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Doubt it. If the ridge begins to build in.. You may see them swing back to LA.


Yep. I hear the folks a the NHC swing both ways...

I wouldn't be surprised to see more track shifts - especially since Debby is in weak steering currents.
So neither the GFS or Euro, new track right down the middle between them. If this holds true N. FL is going to get a LOT of rain over the next 5 days.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Entirely possible Debby could briefly become a Category 1 hurricane between the 48hr and 72hr forecast points.
Could become a hurricane by morning, it really doesn't need that much to intensify. If and when that anticyclone that's a couple degrees of latitude southward advects poleward towards the circulation, it's off from there.
looks like she wobbled south and west a bit, as of 20:40 UTC
Quoting air360:
What is interesting to me..and please correct me if im wrong...but none of the models show the storm basically drifting straight north. they either showed the storm going to the west or to the E/NE. Did they just split the difference and buy themselves time?


That's what it seems to me. They have no idea, so they are basically just taking a wait and see what happens attitude.
2575. trey33
I guess it's a bit late for me to stark my ark. Wow. And my roof just sprung a leak. Ugh.
Quoting jpsb:
The hysterics coming from some in Fla are becoming tiresome. If you live in an area subject to being by a Tropical system then you should realize you are going to be hit by a topical system. I do not recall all the wineing by Texans when Ike Wiped out entire towns and flooded 10 of thousands homes with a 14 foot storm surge and Cat 3 winds. Man up and deal with it. My goodness how bad can it be you are still posting on the internet! I shutter to think what noises I will hear if Debby strengthens to a hurricane before making land fall. Oh and all thin NHC bashing is in very poor taste too.



Hurricane Ike is a Cat. Three. hurricane, to an unorganized tropical storm Debby. Apples to Jelly Beans....and this is coming from a Floridian near Tampa. Tampa/St Pete area hasn't gotten the big storm YET and is due for one.
So are we going to get another speech today??.ROTFLMAO.Any way I really do want some of Debbie's energy to come up to D.C and give us some rain because we really do need some.Sigh but it appears that won't happen.
So it is going to strike Florida! Who would have thought that? Guess the Florida casters win?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Could become a hurricane by morning, it really doesn't need that much to intensify. If and when that anticyclone that's a couple degrees of latitude southward advects poleward towards the circulation, it's off from there.


Yes. I very much don't agree with the most recent NHC intensity forecast.
Quoting washingtonian115:
They wanted rain and now they got it..The HARD way just like I predicting would happen in the beginning of the year.

Geeze thats a bit harsh.
Quoting Tazmanian:



but at the same time with wind shear and dry air the COC or low that Debby has could open up and that would make it no longer a name storm whats the ch of that happening


Close to zero according to this in 12hrs.


Circulation has actually been intensifying throughout the day.

384 hours out...cape verde storm??
2583. Patrap
All it takes is a slow mover parked n neutral, Fla is on the fetch side and the Bullseye for Bad Mojo.




Debby might be nasty. But wait until we get Ernesto(forecasted by models to be a Cape Verde storm and further on A Caribbean Runner.
Quoting cntrclckwiseSpenn:



Hurricane Ike is a Cat. Three. hurricane, to an unorganized tropical storm Debby. Apples to Jelly Beans....and this is coming from a Floridian near Tampa. Tampa/St Pete area hasn't gotten the big storm YET and is due for one.


Exactly....
said late last night they were off by about 130 degrees
2400 Tazmanian: I must be on everyone's Ignore list

Nah, you've been gettin' enough Pluses in the backpages. And most of us trying to keep up are still reading the backpages.
Debby's best shot to become a hurricane is probably late tomorrow... After that upwelling will hurt it.
Quoting air360:
What is interesting to me..and please correct me if im wrong...but none of the models show the storm basically drifting straight north. they either showed the storm going to the west or to the E/NE. Did they just split the difference and buy themselves time?


Geos-5 has had a north drift for several runs. The latest run isn't done yet.
Patrap you got a temp map for S. LA. It's freaking hot over here.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That's why the NHC moved the track in stages back to the East.
Could you imagine a cone pointed to Corpus Christi Tx and then a 180 degree switch with the cone facing N.E. FL.

This morning many bloggers predicted that THC would move the cone in 2 stages back to Fl. And that's what they did.


I got parents still thinking it's going to S TX after watching 10 o clock news last night, had to tell them it's going into Florida panhandle. So it is a 180 for most Texans, people don't watch weather like us 24/7
Quoting newportrinative:


Exactly....


Tell that to the people who receive water in their houses due to widespread flooding in this area
Quoting Tazmanian:
well the good news is FL drought will be gone


i guss FL sould be carefull on what they wish for


Thanks for the graphic, Taz. Very glad for the water, thank you. So far no tornadoes up this way in Melrose FL area, but we'll see if that lasts. I'll look forward to seeing that graphic on July 1st.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Close to zero according to this in 12hrs.


Circulation has actually been intensifying throughout the day.



ok thanks
Quoting RitaEvac:
Been off for days, go from S TX impact to this....Epic model failure and confidence in NHC.



Um, the first track and advisory was issued only 24 hours ago. And the NHC discussions made the low confidence forecast clear. New discussion still does...

Forecaster Avila:
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW
TWIST OF THE ECMWF.
THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN
FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOW
HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN
MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT
NOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
Quoting IcemanMC:
Patrap you got a temp map for S. LA. It's freaking hot over here.


Ain't Pat.

10 homes damaged by tornado in Lake Placid Fl. One fatality.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Memorable storms: Alberto 1994, Allison 2001, Fay 2008... All Tropical Storms, extensive damage in terms of flooding. Never underestimate a Tropical Storm, no matter how strong or weak. Remember, it doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause major problems.


Thank you. I feel like some posters are just bitter the storm isnt coming towards them (weird as that idea is to me).... if this system sits on the same area for 7 straight days there will be EPIC flooding... and major damage. I hope the NHC is wrong, the GFS is right, and this thing just swings NE across Florida and out to sea...


There are some sensitive people around here. You can tell how many little kiddies are running around the blog (no offense to those of you who are young, respectful AND knowledgeable, I know there are plenty of you that post here too)
Quoting Dakster:


Yep. I hear the folks a the NHC swing both ways...

I wouldn't be surprised to see more track shifts - especially since Debby is in weak steering currents.


On the lighter side, I do see the NHC has turned on their windshield wipers again. Still on delay. Waiting for them to turn them to high speed. :-)
i feel like telling Debby. Poop or get off the POT!!! lol. So tired of being stuck in the house !!!!
2601. spathy
Quoting Dakster:
Wasn't Charley another example of needing to not focus on the exact track and looking out for an intensifying storm.

YES!
2602. jpsb
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Memorable storms: Alberto 1994, Allison 2001, Fay 2008... All Tropical Storms, extensive damage in terms of flooding. Never underestimate a Tropical Storm, no matter how strong or weak. Remember, it doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause major problems.
And lets not forget the mother of all TS rain makers


Claudette produced torrential rains in both Texas and Louisiana when it made landfall. The highest one-day total was reported near Alvin, Texas where 42 inches (1,100 mm) of rain fell. This remains the twenty-four hour rainfall record for any location in the United States.
2603. Patrap
Quoting IcemanMC:
Patrap you got a temp map for S. LA. It's freaking hot over here.


Louisiana wu page
Quoting muddertracker:
What the bleep??? Is it April? I just got back from my son's baseball tourney to this? Wow....ok...never seen such a drastic shift in six hours..but hey.....lol!

It's June?
Quoting Dakster:


I could actually be living on an island rather then the south end of a peninsula if that keeps up!

Well I hope the wind or something picks up to take it out of there. fingers crossed for you
Quoting divdog:
Go away please. We have heard enuf of that crap today to last a lifetime
Amen; people act like the NHC is responsible for what Mother Nature actually does herself. Geez, I do thank some posters on here that actually give valid and insightful information, but the others, Meh ,not so much.
Quoting waterskiman:

Geeze thats a bit harsh.
Sorry but when Florida was in that dry pattern last year and a name storm didn't effect them I knew their time was up.Sorry to all the Floridians out there.The last time that happened was in 2003 and the next year 2004 saw several storms in Florida.So far ya'll seen one and two is about to be the total.Let's see if a pattern for Florida landfalls continue through out the season.I'm praying for you all.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
This is not going to be pretty for Pensacola.


Or the whole Panhandle as a whole and ya might throw in Tallahassee
I noticed that lots of times if your in the cone on the first advisory, your not in it by the time the storm gets close!
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Thank you. I feel like some posters are just bitter the storm isnt coming towards them (weird as that idea is to me).... if this system sits on the same area for 7 straight days there will be EPIC flooding... and major damage. I hope the NHC is wrong, the GFS is right, and this thing just swings NE across Florida and out to sea...


There are some sensitive people around here. You can tell how many little kiddies are running around the blog (no offense to those of you who are young, respectful AND knowledgeable, I know there are plenty of you that post here too)


Whoa, whoa, whoa. You hope the NHC is wrong??? This from the same poster bashing them earlier and stating you could do a better job for half the money....now that's priceless!!!!
So, when do you guys think Debby will get some convection over her center?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Debby might be nasty. But wait until we get Ernesto( forecasted by models to be a Cape Verde storm and further on A Caribbean Runner.

The GFS does not show it anymore.
A win for the good guys the American Model. All hail "King" GFS. However, FL. has lost the battle to Debby. I've waved the white flag.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


can't believe they shifted the track about 90 degrees already
I think they kinda had to. They can see that huge opening over FL / GA just as well as we can.

Quoting LargoFl:
seems to me YOU were over reacting a few weeks ago with YOUR storm
Nah, that was just whining... lol

Besides, I genuinely don't think the pple being impacted by the storms are doing much of this "overreacting". U guys, as I said earlier, are taking things pretty much in ur stride....
Quoting Flawestcoast:
10 homes damaged by tornado in Lake Placid Fl. One fatality.


Oh, no! :-( do you have a link for the info?
Quoting Flawestcoast:
10 homes damaged by tornado in Lake Placid Fl. One fatality.


But nothing more than a minor rain event according to some (I'll get banned if I say it) on this blog. Sad to hear this.
2618. Patrap
Sometime forecasters get tunnel vision and Officials make mistakes in every state.
Charlie had everyone focused on Tampa and Hooked into Punta Gordo and some refused to believe it and Boom, you get caught with your collective apparel around yer ankles.

Never discount a Tropical Storm as well,..it can take lives in many ways.

Don't become a statistic.

Heed local EMG MGT words of advice.
2619. spathy
Quoting BahaHurican:
Poor press... I thought it was funny...

I think I might have been more offended IF I didn't know ur thinking, or the fact that you live in a SC flood plain area, or have been more affected by TCs since 2004 than most Pinellas county residents.

OTOH, prolly not.


See now thats the Wu humor That enamored me in the early lurking days.
Yes we can!
Snicker snort.
I just wonder if we are done here in Miami Dade County with the heavy rain from Debby,or if that very strong line of thunder storms coming from the South will reach the South Florida Miami area????,no much rain today here in South Florida very cloudy!,with the storm seating stationary for days I will ask the expert if we can expect more rain for us here in East South Florida coming from the South,we are taking vacations by the end of next week,thank you for any comments about this.
2621. guygee
Quoting Patrap:
Hot as Hades over on the Down stroke side here.
...phew.
The Subsidence, uh, causes suction of the brain.
2622. ncstorm
Quoting RitaEvac:
Been off for days, go from S TX impact to this....Epic model failure and confidence in NHC.





WB
Quoting jpsb:
And lets not forget the mother of all TS rain makers


Claudette produced torrential rains in both Texas and Louisiana when it made landfall. The highest one-day total was reported near Alvin, Texas where 42 inches (1,100 mm) of rain fell. This remains the twenty-four hour rainfall record for any location in the United States.


Thanks... I failed to add that one on there. Indeed, a very nasty rain producer.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Actually GFS is still sticking with that storm(it has shown it consistently on it's runs for about two weeks).Now after it comes off the coast of Africa all bets are off and it could end up in Canada for all we know.
2:35 PM 96.8 °F 105.1 °F 71.6 °F 44% 29.83 in - ENE 4.6 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
2:55 PM 96.8 °F 105.1 °F 71.6 °F 44% 29.83 in - ENE 5.8 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
3:15 PM 96.8 °F 103.1 °F 69.8 °F 41% 29.82 in - ENE 8.1 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
3:35 PM 96.8 °F 103.1 °F 69.8 °F 41% 29.82 in - NE 4.6 mph - N/A Scattered Clouds
3:55 PM 98.6 °F 105.5 °F 69.8 °F 39% 29.80 in - NE 4.6 mph - N/A Scattered Clouds


Previous record was 96f.

Just as I suspected, we get nearly 2 more full degrees out of it.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
So, when do you guys think Debby will get some convection over her center?


Maybe through the night leading into Dmax?

if at all...

albeit VERY slowly, the convection has been looking better near and around the center today, as the day goes on.

shear appears to be out of the south instead of the SW, now, and that's why the west side has been filling in a bit.
BTW, ya'll realized we passed 2000 posts some time around 3 pm.....
99 degrees is too hot to finish painting a deck! But it does mean the paint was dry almost as fast as my daughter and I put it on, so furniture is back on it. (Have a BBQ later tonight and wanted it done as some haven't seen my new house and yard since the fire.

Talked to a friend in Fort Walton Beach and my son, who is in Navarre. Both said it hasn't been too bad yet, lots of rain bands and some wind. My son was picking up and putting away a few pieces of heavy furniture from the yard. But if the rain continues flooding will be a concern. My son is about three blocks from the beach, but there's the island between him and the Gulf.
Quoting newportrinative:


Whoa, whoa, whoa. You hope the NHC is wrong??? This from the same poster bashing them earlier and stating you could do a better job for half the money....now that's priceless!!!!


So if they are predicting, for example, a cat 5 to come towards New Orleans, I should hope they are right?

I think they SHOULD be right because it is their job. Doesn't mean I wish devastation on anyone....

If you don't like my posts get a life and ignore me
Always worrying when they move this fast

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
WESTERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR SEMINOLE...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH
1 more time for those who missed it, look at the wind in this video!!

West Palm Beach Possible Tornado
Quoting Hurricane1956:
I just wonder if we are done here in Miami Dade County with the heavy rain from Debby,or if that very strong line of thunder storms coming from the South will reach the South Florida Miami area????,no much rain today here in South Florida very cloudy!,with the storm seating stationary for days I will ask the expert if we can expect more rain for us here in East South Florida coming from the South,we are taking vacations by the end of next week,thank you for any comments about this.


Not much in Miami maybe..Broward and Palm Beach got drenched. PBI had a record 4.96" rain - a new record, easily beating the old record of 3.23".

Any one living in the big bend area please follow this site they are updating from local EOC

so far this is what I have found

Franklin County, FL -- June 24, 2012 -- 4:36 PM

At 4:00 PM EDST The Franklin County Operations Center is issuing a mandatory evacuation for the following areas: Alligator Point, St. George Island, any low lying, flood prone areas.

They are asking all other residents to remain in their homes and off the roads and streets.
_____________________________
Wakulla County, FL --- June 24, 2012 -- 4:30 PM

Wakulla County Sheriff's Office Division of Emergency Management is issuing a voluntary evacuation of homes in low lying areas south of US Highway 98.
_________________________________________________ __
Florida --- June 24, 2012

Due to high winds associated with Tropical Storm Debby, the St. George Island Bridge and the John Gorrie Bridge (at Apalachicola) in Franklin County have been closed to all traffic. Members of Florida Highway Patrol, Franklin County SO, and Fish and Wildlife Commission are assisting in the traffic detours.

The winds continue to punish the coastline and with weather reports indicated TS Debby will continue to affect the area for the next 12 to 18 hours, the bridges are projected to remain closed.

please follow wctv.tv they are updating as fast as they can
Honestly, I think some people need to get a grip. Computers/models/forecast are just like people, they are not perfect. This constant moaning about the NHC and the models is done by people who belong to the "get it now" group. There are some things in life no one is going to tell you about exactly, and the weather is one of them.

Now, if the discussion is about how and why those models were not able to the read the situation, and what can be learned from that going forward in the future -- its useful. The rest is just people who are wasting others time.

Many people often say they miss the old days of the blog -- let me tell you -- those days were spent watching the clouds, the shear, and the coc -- hour upon hour. Lots of good discussion, lots of learning, and not so much b*)*)*).
This has to be the strongest naked swirl I've ever seen, at 60mph. I feel like it will miss the trough due to not being vertically stacked. And instead move west.
Quoting GPTGUY:



Can you imagine if this blog would have been around back in 1985 during Elena! Yikes!


I was in Bonita Springs Florida visiting a friend when Elena came by.No real effect from her except one od her feeder bands came over,no rain,but the wind picked up to like 30-40mph and cooled ud down on a usual hot muggy night in Florida. God, I am getting old.........hold that thought.I am old!
It's amaseing,we have gotten pretty good at forcasting storms but this shows you who's in control.
This is going to be like Allison if it moves that slowly. There is potential for epic flooding. Also, I see a shift again to the East at 11. The NHC is just slowly moving the windshield wiper, instead of one rapid shift. It is called saving face.

Nevermind.
Quoting Flawestcoast:
10 homes damaged by tornado in Lake Placid Fl. One fatality.

Do you have a link for that please :)
2643. GetReal


Debby is going to be sticking around for awhile longer. IMO all the casters will see the models flip one or two more times before she makes her final farewell move.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Jesus Christ bro, doom scenario every time. We all understand the possible effects that could be caused by Debby, but it isn't like it's going to cause state-wide catastrophic damage and kill thousands. Chill out a little.


A storm that kills one person is one too many. A storm that destroys peoples houses or businesses is a bad one. It doesn't take thousands of deaths for something to be considered serious.... I guess that is what the media has our nation thinking these days, though.
2645. gator23
Quoting jpsb:
The hysterics coming from some in Fla are becoming tiresome. If you live in an area subject to being by a Tropical system then you should realize you are going to be hit by a topical system. I do not recall all the wineing by Texans when Ike Wiped out entire towns and flooded 10 of thousands homes with a 14 foot storm surge and Cat 3 winds. Man up and deal with it. My goodness how bad can it be you are still posting on the internet! I shutter to think what noises I will hear if Debby strengthens to a hurricane before making land fall. Oh and all thin NHC bashing is in very poor taste too.

Texans didnt have power that said they were brutal and kept begging for sympathy.
2646. hahaguy
I'm surprised nobody has made any Little Debby jokes.
Quoting mahep1911:
Any one living in the big bend area please follow this site they are updating from local EOC

so far this is what I have found

Franklin County, FL -- June 24, 2012 -- 4:36 PM

At 4:00 PM EDST The Franklin County Operations Center is issuing a mandatory evacuation for the following areas: Alligator Point, St. George Island, any low lying, flood prone areas.

They are asking all other residents to remain in their homes and off the roads and streets.
_____________________________
Wakulla County, FL --- June 24, 2012 -- 4:30 PM

Wakulla County Sheriff's Office Division of Emergency Management is issuing a voluntary evacuation of homes in low lying areas south of US Highway 98.
_________________________________________________ __
Florida --- June 24, 2012

Due to high winds associated with Tropical Storm Debby, the St. George Island Bridge and the John Gorrie Bridge (at Apalachicola) in Franklin County have been closed to all traffic. Members of Florida Highway Patrol, Franklin County SO, and Fish and Wildlife Commission are assisting in the traffic detours.

The winds continue to punish the coastline and with weather reports indicated TS Debby will continue to affect the area for the next 12 to 18 hours, the bridges are projected to remain closed.

please follow wctv.tv they are updating as fast as they can


AMEN...don't rely just on the NHC for safety info. An EOC is a lifeline in troubled times.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Actually GFS is still sticking with that storm(it has shown it consistently on it's runs for about two weeks).Now after it comes off the coast of Africa all bets are off and it could end up in Canada for all we know.

Nothing.
2649. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
FLC101-103-242130-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0022.120624T2059Z-120624T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
459 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
WESTERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR SEMINOLE...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
WESTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2797 8284 2806 8284 2809 8283 2806 8279
2813 8279 2814 8281 2840 8271 2836 8262
2796 8269 2795 8271 2793 8269 2780 8272
2784 8285 2791 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 199DEG 44KT 2792 8278

$$
2650. Dsntslp
Quoting jpsb:
The hysterics coming from some in Fla are becoming tiresome. If you live in an area subject to being by a Tropical system then you should realize you are going to be hit by a topical system. I do not recall all the wineing by Texans when Ike Wiped out entire towns and flooded 10 of thousands homes with a 14 foot storm surge and Cat 3 winds. Man up and deal with it. My goodness how bad can it be you are still posting on the internet! I shutter to think what noises I will hear if Debby strengthens to a hurricane before making land fall. Oh and all thin NHC bashing is in very poor taste too.
I usually shutter my house for a Cat 3 or more. Then, while I am hiding in the bathroom, the sound of the water being sucked out of the toilet combined with all of the banging noises causes me to shudder.

LOL
Just picking, levity needed here sometimes.

I will not argue as to whether the flooding of a stalled system can create great damage though. It has, it does and it will.
Is there another recon going into Debby tonight?
2652. spathy
Quoting mahep1911:
Any one living in the big bend area please follow this site they are updating from local EOC

so far this is what I have found

Franklin County, FL -- June 24, 2012 -- 4:36 PM

At 4:00 PM EDST The Franklin County Operations Center is issuing a mandatory evacuation for the following areas: Alligator Point, St. George Island, any low lying, flood prone areas.

They are asking all other residents to remain in their homes and off the roads and streets.
_____________________________
Wakulla County, FL --- June 24, 2012 -- 4:30 PM

Wakulla County Sheriff's Office Division of Emergency Management is issuing a voluntary evacuation of homes in low lying areas south of US Highway 98.
_________________________________________________ __
Florida --- June 24, 2012

Due to high winds associated with Tropical Storm Debby, the St. George Island Bridge and the John Gorrie Bridge (at Apalachicola) in Franklin County have been closed to all traffic. Members of Florida Highway Patrol, Franklin County SO, and Fish and Wildlife Commission are assisting in the traffic detours.

The winds continue to punish the coastline and with weather reports indicated TS Debby will continue to affect the area for the next 12 to 18 hours, the bridges are projected to remain closed.

please follow wctv.tv they are updating as fast as they can


Worthy of repeating IMO
Quoting MrstormX:
1 more time for those who missed it, look at the wind in this video!!

West Palm Beach Possible Tornado

Amazing, looks more like a Cat 1 then a ts
Quoting NOLALawyer:
This is going to be like Allison if it moves that slowly. There is potential for epic flooding. Also, I see a shift again to the East at 11. The NHC is just slowly moving the windshield wiper, instead of one rapid shift. It is called saving face.



be careful using the word epic, the disaster police on here will come and slap you lol

that being said epic is a bit of a strong word for right now
Quoting AllStar17:
Is there another recon going into Debby tonight?



leaves around 630, tasked for 8pm
2656. ncstorm
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, ya'll realized we passed 2000 posts some time around 3 pm.....


Breakdown of the posts

60% Bashing The NHC
25% Multiple postings of the NHC Discussions
10% Radar loops/Model Runs
5% Crow Servings

Outdated Weather Radar Tied To Fatal Small-Plane Crashes

Link

2658. LargoFl
reddington beach is gone, totally under water
2659. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That makes no meteorological sense.


While less likely now, yes it does. Lack of vertical stacking can end up with the mid-level center and the convection taking off northeastward, leaving the naked swirl behind to get caught underneath the surface ridge.

That said, Debby is stacked just fine right now.
Quoting Hurricanes101:



leaves around 630, tasked for 8pm


Thank you! If it leaves at 6:30, it may get to Debby at like 6:35. LOL.
2661. GetReal


Also I do believe that there is some signs of Debby trying to form a wall cloud on the eastern semi-circle.
Wow even with the change, I am still surprised. I have been saying landfall near mobile, Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida but now all the models shifted all the way towards Florida. That makes one wonder if she will cross north of Tampa and into the Atlantic.

Quoting LargoFl:
reddington beach is gone, totally under water
You have a source for that? I'm 5-10 minutes from there and have no signs of flooding...
2664. LargoFl
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
436 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG WITH BUILDING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...

.TROPICAL STORM DEBBY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW CAUSE BUILDING SEAS
AND SURF ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. THE
BUILDING SEAS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THE BUILDING SURF AND LARGE BREAKING
WAVE ACTION WILL PRODUCE VERY HAZARDS SURF ALONG AREA
BEACHES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

FLZ039-042-048-251000-
/O.EXT.KTBW.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120626T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-
436 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND ASSOCIATED BEACH EROSION.
OVERWASH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADWAYS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING WILL BE AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH SOME OVERWASH
FROM BREAKING WAVE ACTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH MONDAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING HIGH TIDE. THE BUILDING SURF AND
BREAKING WAVE ACTION WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING...OR
WILL OCCUR WITHIN 12 HOURS. TAKE FINAL ACTIONS NOW TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

$$
Quoting GetReal:


Also I do believe that there is some signs of Debby trying to form a wall cloud on the eastern semi-circle.


A wall cloud???
Wow, local meteorologist on Baynews9 says it's the first tornado fatality in Florida since 07.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


be careful using the word epic, the disaster police on here will come and slap you lol

that being said epic is a bit of a strong word for right now


The increase in the use of the word "epic" over the last couple of years has reached epic proportions!
Quoting zoomiami:
Honestly, I think some people need to get a grip. Computers/models/forecast are just like people, they are not perfect. This constant moaning about the NHC and the models is done by people who belong to the "get it now" group. There are some things in life no one is going to tell you about exactly, and the weather is one of them.

Now, if the discussion is about how and why those models were not able to the read the situation, and what can be learned from that going forward in the future -- its useful. The rest is just people who are wasting others time.

Many people often say they miss the old days of the blog -- let me tell you -- those days were spent watching the clouds, the shear, and the coc -- hour upon hour. Lots of good discussion, lots of learning, and not so much b*)*)*).


How many pluses would you like?
Quoting jaxbeachbadger:


The increase in the use of the word "epic" over the last couple of years has reached epic proportions!


lol
2646 hahaguy: I'm surprised nobody has made any Little Debby jokes.

WU was done with 'em by the time Debby was officially Named.
Now we're jes waitin' for the "40 days and 40 nights" to end.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


A storm that kills one person is one too many. A storm that destroys peoples houses or businesses is a bad one. It doesn't take thousands of deaths for something to be considered serious.... I guess that is what the media has our nation thinking these days, though.
Not at all my point; by all means take this seriously. But if someone's joking around that it's only gonna cause a couple rainy days you don't have to get defensive about it.

Just my two cents, even though I'm sure you didn't ask for a donation. ;)
2672. trey33
Quoting LargoFl:
reddington beach is gone, totally under water


wow!!!
How do you know? Guess salt water is now getting into the pool at The Tides.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nothing.
Sometimes the GFS will do that.Now lets see if it picks back up on it when the next set of runs come out.The MJO by that time is expected to be over Africa by then.
I'm pretty sure she's stalled for the moment...
2675. spathy
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
So, when do you guys think Debby will get some convection over her center?


I have no clue but If my eyes arent fooling me it looks like there is venting on even the minor storms that surround her to the SW?
Actual question here.
Am I seeing that correctly?
Do those minor storms to the SW of Deb show signs of venting?
I haven't seen this much water in years. My guesstimate is around a foot. And according to our local weather expert Denis Phillips with the 5pm track shift to the east we could get 12 mores before it's all said and done...YIKES!!!!
2677. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Really?


In referencing this image and the original image, where is "Tuesday"? LOL - Just saying.
Only model sticking with a sort of west solution is the HWRF.



It's been one of the best this year after its upgrade, but I think we'll see it flip on the 18z run, and we'll have full agreement for a panhandle landfall.
wow the new forecast path looks like a flooding one
2682. LargoFl
no more hurricane from nhc now i see.
still a 25% chance
Quoting aspectre:
2646 hahaguy: I'm surprised nobody has made any Little Debby jokes.

WU was done with 'em by the time Debby was officially Named.

Debby's big anyways so they wouldn't work...

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not at all my point; by all means take this seriously. But if someone's joking around that it's only gonna cause a couple rainy days you don't have to get defensive about it.

Just my two cents, even though I'm sure you didn't ask for a donation. ;)


I don't mean to come across as preachy, but for those who experience a loss of life (someone close to them) or property, joking about a rainy day is not in good taste. We already have one reported death. Tons of damage reports. This is life and peoples property at stake. I just think of the people affected.... I wish them the best. And think people joking about a serious situation are being very immature.
Hi All

Just back on. I see that the NHC has finally come around to the NE conclusion for Debby. What happens intensity wise is the next question along with how much rain will continue to fall inland as it takes its own sweet time coming ashore.
2687. jpsb
Quoting winter123:
This has to be the strongest naked swirl I've ever seen, at 60mph. I feel like it will miss the trough due to not being vertically stacked. And instead move west.
That possibility has been discussed and I think there is a reasonable chance you are correct. The system is not stacked yet. Which is good news for fla, since a stacked system could intensify. However, I do not know if it was shear (which is slacking) or the tug of the weakness that is preventing the mlc from alining with the llc. Hopefully it is the weakness and not the shear. I think even the GFS was showing something exactly like that a couple days ago.
what did i miss
Quoting sonofagunn:
Wow, local meteorologist on Baynews9 says it's the first tornado fatality in Florida since 07.

Son, do you have a link please
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi All

Just back on. I see that the NHC has finally come around to the NE conclusion for Debby. What happens intensity wise is the next question along with how much rain will continue fall inland as it takes its own sweet time coming ashore.


Think they will keep it there or shift further east into Florida next?
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


I don't mean to come across as preachy, but for those who experience a loss of life (someone close to them) or property, joking about a rainy day is not in good taste. We already have one reported death. Tons of damage reports. This is life and peoples property at stake. I just think of the people affected.... I wish them the best. And think people joking about a serious situation are being very immature.


agreed 100%
2692. ncstorm
the same percentages are almost identical to the 11am discussion but they dropped the hurricane possibility in the cone at the 5pm discussion..

Quoting Hurricanes101:


be careful using the word epic, the disaster police on here will come and slap you lol

that being said epic is a bit of a strong word for right now


My point being that if it sits there well into next week, you could very well have flooding that would satisfy the term "epic." It has to sit and spin though, like Allison did. Houston certainly experienced epic flooding...and that was the first Billion dollar flood event in the history of the NFIP.
Quoting spathy:


Worthy of repeating IMO


I am in South West GA. Our concern is going to be tornadoes cause the current NOAA track puts us on the right side of the storm.
Looks like a tornado by New Port Richie.Base Radial Velocity, 0.20 elevation

It's been jumping around for the past half hour, starting near Seminole.
There is no hurricane forecast because Avila covered this shift. I believe it's Stewart's shift next, in which case he will likely show a hurricane before landfall.
2698. Patrap
Quoting weatherh98:
what did i miss
Bashing and Bickering.Nothing much if you ask me.
Navy still showing NOLA hit.
Quoting ncstorm:


Breakdown of the posts

60% Bashing The NHC
25% Multiple postings of the NHC Discussions
10% Radar loops/Model Runs
5% Crow
hahahahahha That's brilliant!!! In the late 90's I use to post in the hurricane room. It was full of realy cool,smart folks from all over the US. Every one was kind and considerate. One girl even got the chance to talk about us on , I think, the today show- one of those news shows. When Georges was crossing over Key West I was able to post eyewitness, live postings until we lost power. I wonder if any of those folks are posting on this blog now???? There seems to be a lot of surly postings on this site
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Only model sticking with a sort of west solution is the HWRF.



It's been one of the best this year after its upgrade, but I think we'll see it flip on the 18z run, and we'll have full agreement for a panhandle landfall.


Looking at the Latest model run I expect the track to be even further east more like the Big Bend and NE out to the Altantic. However, the NHC has a straight north component which is west of the model guidance.
Catfish, that tornado went by our house in Dunedin a while ago... We didn't see it but it was very dark and windy.
2704. TXCWC
Quoting Skyepony:


Geos-5 has had a north drift for several runs. The latest run isn't done yet.


That Model run is actually a bit disturbing - does not have it making landfall and actually seems to show a West/South West movement at the end of it's run.
Quoting NOLALawyer:


My point being that if it sits there well into next week, you could very well have flooding that would satisfy the term "epic." It has to sit and spin though, like Allison did. Houston certainly experienced epic flooding...and that was the first Billion dollar flood event in the history of the NFIP.


Yea about a week ago many area near Mobile and Pensacola were getting a lot of flooding from a tropical low; therefore, I don't think they like the current track NOAA is giving.
Quoting ncstorm:
the same percentages are almost identical to the 11am discussion but they dropped the hurricane possibility in the cone at the 5pm discussion..



if it organizes better then there is still a chance it could become a hurricane...will have to wait and see on that
2707. Mucinex
Quoting mahep1911:
Any one living in the big bend area please follow this site they are updating from local EOC

so far this is what I have found

Franklin County, FL -- June 24, 2012 -- 4:36 PM

At 4:00 PM EDST The Franklin County Operations Center is issuing a mandatory evacuation for the following areas: Alligator Point, St. George Island, any low lying, flood prone areas.

They are asking all other residents to remain in their homes and off the roads and streets.
_____________________________
Wakulla County, FL --- June 24, 2012 -- 4:30 PM

Wakulla County Sheriff's Office Division of Emergency Management is issuing a voluntary evacuation of homes in low lying areas south of US Highway 98.
_________________________________________________ __
Florida --- June 24, 2012

Due to high winds associated with Tropical Storm Debby, the St. George Island Bridge and the John Gorrie Bridge (at Apalachicola) in Franklin County have been closed to all traffic. Members of Florida Highway Patrol, Franklin County SO, and Fish and Wildlife Commission are assisting in the traffic detours.

The winds continue to punish the coastline and with weather reports indicated TS Debby will continue to affect the area for the next 12 to 18 hours, the bridges are projected to remain closed.

please follow wctv.tv they are updating as fast as they can

God, I wouldn't want to be on St. George island or the bridge during this. The whole island is powder fine sand. That stuff blowing hurts on a regular day. Five days of it blowing around and you'd be pickin' out of crevices till next hurricane season.
OMG!!!!!!!!!! I've been called 'immature' on the internet!!!!!!!!
Quoting waterskiman:

Son, do you have a link please


No, it's from watching live coverage on baynews9. I don't see a story on their website yet, but 2 channels confirmed a fatality and 10 damaged homes - I think it was in Polk County.
2710. Sasha
From CNN: High winds prompted authorities to shut down the Sunshine Skyway bridge on Interstate 275 connecting St. Petersburg and Bradenton, Florida, said Elizabeth LaRotonda with St. Petersburg police.

"We are receiving reports of drivers needing to be rescued in downtown Clearwater and reports of water reaching the bumpers of cars in Gulfport," CNN affiliate Bay News 9 reported. Drivers were also reported stranded in other areas, with some intersections closed, the station said.

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is no hurricane forecast because Avila covered this shift. I believe it's Stewart's shift next, in which case he will likely show a hurricane before landfall.


stewart hah
What an amazing turn of events! although I thought Debby would not go as far west as they were saying, I wasn't expecting the cone to make that much of a dramatic shift in less than 24 hours. This sure has been a pain to forecast though...
2713. Patrap
Quoting presslord:
OMG!!!!!!!!!! I've been called 'immature' on the internet!!!!!!!!


3 Hail Marys and a Act of Contrition,

..you'll be good 2 go.

:)
2714. hahaguy
Quoting presslord:
OMG!!!!!!!!!! I've been called 'immature' on the internet!!!!!!!!

Time to go to the corner and curl up in a ball and cry LOL.
2715. Dakster
Presslord- I have been called a lot worse face to face. I wouldn't worry about it.

Old St. George Island Bridge Collapse

Link
Debby may give birth to the Atlantic, look at what's crossing central Florida. It appears to be taking on it's on idenity. ????



Quoting washingtonian115:
Bashing and Bickering.Nothing much if you ask me.


on that note, i just saw the forecast so...


TO ALL FLORIDIANS
I like my crow medium well with only cheese and a side of fries pleas
2719. jpsb
Quoting Levi32:




That said, Debby is stacked just fine right now.
Opps and I just posted it wasn't, darn, thanks for the correction. (I thought a naked swirl did not have the mid level low above it.)
Quoting waterskiman:
Good grief, If Deb sits in that area until friday, holly molly that is around 5 days of rain in that area plus some. Double yowza
This is something to worry about.

This was the big problem w/ the slow westward movement... lots of time for flooding rains drawn out of a basically unruffled GoM...

Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Sorry, but 7 straight days of rainfall associated with a TS can result in epic flooding, if their forecast pans out. Just because it isnt a hurricane doesn't mean there can't be costly results.... ever hear of Allison?
That other storm that flooded the Susquehanna Valley in the early 70s also comes to mind. Was a slow-moving cat 1 at that point.

Quoting washingaway:
Debby may give birth to the Atlantic, look at what's crossing central Florida. It appears to be taking on it's on idenity. ????





like the gfs said lol
2722. Patrap

Navy Reservist served in Iraq as part of troop surge

By Dennis Feltgen, NOAA NHC Public Affairs Officer


After nearly 20 months of active duty, Commander Stacy Stewart has returned to his civilian job as a Senior Hurricane Specialist at NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami.

His biggest adjustment is returning to South Florida traffic. "I was used to driving down the middle of the road in a 15,000 pound Hummer with a .50 caliber machine gun and avoiding any kind of debris," he said.

A 35-year Navy reservist, Stewart was recalled to active duty in January 2007 to aid in the troop surge in Iraq. He was part of the Coalition Army Advisory Training Team, providing advice and mentorship to three Iraqi Army divisions at An Neumaniyah Military Base. That's 20,000 Iraqi soldiers. He also assisted in the training of three Iraqi brigades.

Stewart says his greatest challenge in Iraq was just staying alive during any of the 160 end to end convoy movements in which he participated. "Once you left the base, you were no longer safe, even for just a few miles." During a mission on March 27, 2008, with Stewart serving as the forward machine gunner behind ballistic glass on top of a Hummer vehicle, an IED (improvised explosive device) detonated alongside the vehicle. No one was killed, but Stewart's left leg and knee were injured in the blast. Fortunately, he only required four months of physical therapy and rehabilitation.

Stewart is very adamant about his tour in Iraq. "I was honored to be able to go to Iraq as part of the surge. I saw it from the inside and I am proud of what my four teams accomplished. Iraq is a much better place now."

What he missed most while away was his family and co-workers. Being on an Iraqi base, there was no Post Exchange, post office, or chaplain. A food convoy had to be picked up and escorted 80 kilometers to his base every two weeks. The weather was rather dull, too. "There is not much weather in Iraq, just a lot of sand, dust and 125 degree heat. Sometimes, the sea breeze arrived and knocked it down to 115 in southern Iraq."

Back at the National Hurricane Center, Stewart is rapidly catching up on some of the revised operational procedures used to distribute the routine hurricane products, as well as working with some of the new computer models. He is already back at work with his NHC colleagues and issuing tropical cyclone advisories
Presslord I wouldn't worry about the insults people say to me on this blog.I'll never meet them in person/and they don't pay my bills.
2724. spathy
Quoting GetReal:


Debby is going to be sticking around for awhile longer. IMO all the casters will see the models flip one or two more times before she makes her final farewell move.


GetReal thats a great capture of Deb.
I fear you are correct.
She storms are to be feared.
Lord only knows what she has up her um,sleeve.
But ATM it doesnt look kind for all interests along the NE Gulf and outlying areas.
And she storms seem to love nighttime for landfall.
The worst!
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi All

Just back on. I see that the NHC has finally come around to the NE conclusion for Debby. What happens intensity wise is the next question along with how much rain will continue to fall inland as it takes its own sweet time coming ashore.
Quoting Patrap:


3 Hail Marys and a Act of Contrition,

..you'll be good 2 go.

:)

no our fathers?
2727. TXCWC
Needless to say it looks like a BIG "WIN" for the GFS - unfortunately at Florida's and the NE Gulf Coast expense. New King on the block since the upgrades?
I know the NHC doesn't think Debby has a good shot at hurricane status. What are the percentages of it happening currently. I ask this because it may be over water for at least 3 more days.
Quoting jpsb:
That possibility has been discussed and I think there is a reasonable chance you are correct. The system is not stacked yet. Which is good news for fla, since a stacked system could intensify. However, I do not know if it was shear (which is slacking) or the tug of the weakness that is preventing the mlc from alining with the llc. Hopefully it is the weakness and not the shear. I think even the GFS was showing something exactly like that a couple days ago.

Look, two Texans on the blog!
I am not disappointed in Debby declining us.

1. Nice purple and blue hotspot in the BOC right where Skyepony posted the persistent circulation ASCAT the other day. We really need to get this high and that hot Mexican air out of the way before we can take full advantage of any storm.

2. We have a bunch of models who see lots of reasons to send SOMETHING to TX. So if something does spin up we'll have some confidence in it.
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:

Old St. George Island Bridge Collapse

Link


I guess that's why it was the old bridge! Good thing there is a new one.
Quoting hahaguy:
I'm surprised nobody has made any Little Debby jokes.


she's not little
more bertha than debby-like
2732. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting BahaHurican:
This is something to worry about.

This was the big problem w/ the slow westward movement... lots of time for flooding rains drawn out of a basically unruffled GoM...

That other storm that flooded the Susquehanna Valley in the early 70s also comes to mind. Was a slow-moving cat 1 at that point.


Agnes was the hurricane.
There was a news article on agnes in my Local Newspaper, and apparently the town I live in was flooded.
I swear she's digging in and trying to make a left turn but radar images on iPhone are not the best.
2735. HrDelta
So, I just saw that the National Hurricane Center is no longer predicting Debby to get to Hurricane Strength.

I'm on the fence for believing it.
actually....I've met a good number of these folks...and, almost without exception....it's a GREAT group
2737. hahaguy
Quoting Chicklit:


she's not little
more bertha than debby-like

I was referring to the little Debby snack cakes lol.
Several TC Tors on FL peninsula today. Click link for Storm Reports. Here is the text for the reported tornado with fatality. Looks like it occurred about 3:40 pm EDT.

1940 2 NW LAKE PLACID HIGHLANDS FL 2733 8139
*** 1 FATAL *** 1 FATALITY AND 10 DAMAGED HOMES REPORTED IN THE 600 BLOCK OF LAKE JUNE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON ROTATION DETECTED ON RADAR. (TBW)

And the tornado threat continues per SPC.
Click image for text.
Wow, don't want to over hype but the visible is starting to look quite organized. And if this system hangs around for a few days, well I for one hate to the use the E word but this could become well become the E. word. Sorry Cecil b DeMille.
Beginning to wonder what's going on with Debby, all convection has vanished from the storm and no new thunderstorms are firing, yet structurally she looks fairly healthy...
2741. jpsb
Quoting NOLALawyer:


My point being that if it sits there well into next week, you could very well have flooding that would satisfy the term "epic." It has to sit and spin though, like Allison did. Houston certainly experienced epic flooding...and that was the first Billion dollar flood event in the history of the NFIP.


Poor TS Claudette gets no respect

"Tropical Storm Claudette killed 2 people and left $400 million dollars (1979 USD, $1.1 billion 2005 USD)."

As posted earlier 40+ inches of rain in 24 hours.
Quoting Patrap:
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Incipient eye?
2743. Patrap
Quoting charlottefl:
Beginning to wonder what's going on with Debby, all convection has vanished from the storm and no new thunderstorms are firing, yet structurally she looks fairly healthy...


The sleeper must awaken
after debby i thnk this blog may get real quiet
Quoting GetReal:


Debby is going to be sticking around for awhile longer. IMO all the casters will see the models flip one or two more times before she makes her final farewell move.
looks like it jogged east? my eyes just can't handle anymore.
2746. Patrap
Quoting rolltide36526:
I swear she's digging in and trying to make a left turn but radar images on iPhone are not the best.


round the bowl and down the hole roll tide roll...

tiger bait
Quoting hahaguy:

I was referring to the little Debby snack cakes lol.

Yeah, I know. Lil and Debby in this case don't go together. How bout Lotta Debby? That could fit.
If this pans out, the Panhandle is going to see more of Debby than I can imagine.


Quoting wolftribe2009:


Think they will keep it there or shift further east into Florida next?


The NHC track now calls for essentially a due N motion ( more of a crawl ) with landfall Friday. Debby could come ashore anywhere between a track to the N or ENE IMO depending on what happens with the steering over the next 5 days. What the NHC does with the track will depend on too many variables over that time frame to hazard a guess today if it will shift but the odds are there may be some adjustment over time. Any adjustment might be either minor or materially different. Anyone along the Florida Panhandle or down the West coast of Florida from a point just to the ENE of the present location of Debby needs to pay close attention to what it is doing.

You only have to take a look at the 5 day cone of uncertainty to see that a shift in track is not only possible but probable. I lean more towards a motion somewhere between NNE and NE myself but this far out in time everyone potentially affected by this needs to watch it carefully. Slow movers are notorious for springing surprises.

2750. Drakoen
Debby is barely moving if at all. Wake up tomorrow morning and it might be a degree farther north.
Quoting washingaway:
Debby may give birth to the Atlantic, look at what's crossing central Florida. It appears to be taking on it's on idenity. ????



If that happened and ended up at the surface, would verify the GFS bigtime. lol
2752. hahaguy
Quoting Chicklit:

Yeah, I know. Lil and Debby in this case don't go together. How bout Lotta Debby? That could fit.
I like that.
Quoting NOLALawyer:
This is going to be like Allison if it moves that slowly. There is potential for epic flooding. Also, I see a shift again to the East at 11. The NHC is just slowly moving the windshield wiper, instead of one rapid shift. It is called saving face.



Its starting to look that way, really a terrible situation is setting up for the Florida Panhandle.
2754. ncstorm
Bay9 News has a live blog going on now..damage reports and such

5:20 p.m.

If you do not have to go out in the Bay area tonight, do not go out. Life-theatening weather is moving through the Bay area right now.

Possible tornado continues moving north near Oldsmar and Countrside area.
2756. Drakoen
Quoting Patrap:


Nice look at the Big Picture Pat.
2757. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
511 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLC101-103-242130-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120624T2130Z/
PINELLAS FL-PASCO FL-
511 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PASCO AND WESTERN PINELLAS COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. LOCATED NEAR SAFETY HARBOR...OR NEAR DUNEDIN...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
WESTERN FLORIDA.
So far the highest wind gust at my house (again Largo 1 mile from Gulf, 20 ft from ground) was 31 mph at about 5:00 PM. If the rain keeps on coming I thinks it's a good idea to gather water because it's possible that a boil water order will be issued at some point. Putting some bottles to freeze gives you water and also helps preserve the fridge content if the power goes out.
2759. ncstorm
18z GFS is running now

2760. cg2916
Wow, we called back in early June that the first window for tropical development would be late June, and the Atlantic took it. We may be in for a nice season here.
Quoting sonofagunn:


No, it's from watching live coverage on baynews9. I don't see a story on their website yet, but 2 channels confirmed a fatality and 10 damaged homes - I think it was in Polk County.

Thanks checked their site no news story posted yet. Sad one dead so far to no fault of their own.
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is something to worry about.

This was the big problem w/ the slow westward movement... lots of time for flooding rains drawn out of a basically unruffled GoM...

That other storm that flooded the Susquehanna Valley in the early 70s also comes to mind. Was a slow-moving cat 1 at that point.



Although nothing compared to others mentioned, Dennis in 1999 was a tropical storm that dropped up to 19 inches of rain in some spots and flooded a good majority of eastern NC and SE VA. Caused lots of damage, several deaths... but more importantly set the stage for massive flooding when Floyd came through a few weeks later.

Similarly, if you consider that Pensacola and Mobile had massive flooding just recently.... this could be the "part 2" that totally puts them underwater. Hopefully she moves NE as opposed to N, and those cities should be mostly spared.

Regardless, if a tropical storm sits on one area for 7 straight days, someone is going to experience extreme flooding (if they aren't already!). Hopefully that is not the case.... I still think Debby will be swept NE across Florida and into the Atlantic
Just poppin in...luv u presslord! Debby looks to like the area and may stick around for a bit and spin and sway....me too waiting for the good Dr. John...my mojo medicine....
Good afternoon...

Did a new blog update while the models have been shifting around to a NE track. Check it out...although I still haven't quiet jumped on board with an all out NE track like the new shift has been showing....
Quoting Drakoen:
Debby is barely moving if at all. Wake up tomorrow morning and it might be a degree farther north.

if that.
WSW per latest vis...just saying
Quoting ncstorm:
18z GFS is running now



crownig him now...
We have sailed away from the city of new Orleans on carnival conquest headed for the mouth of the river. No worries, man. No tropical storm here.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Look at the convection in the BOC. Something doesn't look right. What's the record for the shortest NHC head. HE is going to at least need a vacation after this storm and if 2012 keeps going like this he may jump on the it's Obama's fault camp, just before the nervous breakdown.
2771. LargoFl
2772. Dakster
According to the Cone of Death, SOUTH isn't out of the question either.
At 4:00 PM EDST The Franklin County Operations Center is issuing a mandatory evacuation for the following areas: Alligator Point, St. George Island, any low lying, flood prone areas.

They are asking all other residents to remain in their homes and off the roads and streets.
______________________________

this was updated sorry if it has been posted already
2774. Patrap
GOM Viz

We are receiving reports of drivers needing to be rescued in downtown Clearwater and reports of water reaching the bumbers of cars in Gulfport. via Bay News 9
18z GFS just has a ENE drift until it makes landfall.
Next frame should be interesting.

We got a convection burst and a westward "yank" in progress...hehe.

LSU ESL low Clouds
Quoting washingaway:
Debby may give birth to the Atlantic, look at what's crossing central Florida. It appears to be taking on it's on idenity. ????



From your satellite loop, the feature crossing western Cuba appears to have circulation as well. Lots of turning has resulted in numerous tornadoes; beyond that, we'll see.
2779. spathy
Quoting weatherh98:


on that note, i just saw the forecast so...


TO ALL FLORIDIANS
I like my crow medium well with only cheese and a side of fries pleas

Yes gotta have the frys.
Steak frys I would think.
Can you tell I am hungry?
Quoting Patrap:


The sleeper must awaken


not necessarily. she's putting me to sleep with this stalling and hanging around.
unbelievable it could hang out there in the gom all that time.
Quoting KeyWestwx:
They think all the upwelling due to its lack of forward speed will play a role in keeping this a Tropical storm. I HOPE SO!
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


But nothing more than a minor rain event according to some (I'll get banned if I say it) on this blog. Sad to hear this.
Quoting hahaguy:
I'm surprised nobody has made any Little Debby jokes.
Dude, lil debbie... does Dallas... etc... slipped in slyly from time to time...

Quoting Hurricanes101:


be careful using the word epic, the disaster police on here will come and slap you lol

that being said epic is a bit of a strong word for right now
Unfortunately, this can, and likely will change...

Quoting goosegirl1:


How many pluses would you like?
She can have as many as she likes.... Hey goosegirl and zoomiami...

Quoting cajunkid:
WSW per latest vis...just saying


More of a "Wabble" than movement to the WSW...

Taco :o)
In Melbourne for Faye.. The flooding was intense. Our area had over 20 inches of rain. The forecast called for more rain but luckily the rain stopped before the water made it into our house. Many were not as lucky.
Debbie says, "cough, cough, gag @ at dry air intrusion from northwest.
I have never seen rain like this.

This morning those bushes were the edge of the lake, and it's on an incline.
Quoting Patrap:
Storm Centered Viz Loop,Zoomed,zoom active


Looks like it heading directly for Apalachicola
Quoting washingaway:
Debby may give birth to the Atlantic, look at what's crossing central Florida. It appears to be taking on it's on idenity. ????



Now THAT would make the "new" GFS top dog... a storm split is what it's been forecasting for simply ages....
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Yea about a week ago many area near Mobile and Pensacola were getting a lot of flooding from a tropical low; therefore, I don't think they like the current track NOAA is giving.


Well, Allison did 1 billion in actual damages, not one billion in adjusted damages.
Best case scenario for myself is thst she hugs close to the coast as she passes by might not get to bad around here tornados spook me to the core never know when they pop up are where anyway hope she goes ahead and continues through florida yall all ready getting the woest good luck folks

Belcher Rd/142nd St. in Largo.

Quoting DestinDave:
They think all the upwelling due to its lack of forward speed will play a role in keeping this a Tropical storm. I HOPE SO!
yeah, if your going to have a possible foot of rain at least the winds won't be a worry for you
I think the storm is East of model, Wind is almost out of due North here in Panama City Beach.
Quoting charlottefl:
We are receiving reports of drivers needing to be rescued in downtown Clearwater and reports of water reaching the bumbers of cars in Gulfport. via Bay News 9
Quoting panamasteve:
I think the storm is East of model, Wind is almost out of due North here in Panama City Beach.
here's a great webcam to check out the beach on panama city
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/panamacity/
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Although nothing compared to others mentioned, Dennis in 1999 was a tropical storm that dropped up to 19 inches of rain in some spots and flooded a good majority of eastern NC and SE VA. Caused lots of damage, several deaths... but more importantly set the stage for massive flooding when Floyd came through a few weeks later.

Similarly, if you consider that Pensacola and Mobile had massive flooding just recently.... this could be the "part 2" that totally puts them underwater. Hopefully she moves NE as opposed to N, and those cities should be mostly spared.

Regardless, if a tropical storm sits on one area for 7 straight days, someone is going to experience extreme flooding (if they aren't already!). Hopefully that is not the case.... I still think Debby will be swept NE across Florida and into the Atlantic
Dennis also raked the NW Bahamas as a Hurricane, with most damage in the Abaco area... A couple weeks later we got hit by Floyd.
Is STOPPED a direction? Because it is not moving N, S, E, W or any points between.
2798. BmtJedi
Quoting redwagon:

Look, two Texans on the blog!
I am not disappointed in Debby declining us.

1. Nice purple and blue hotspot in the BOC right where Skyepony posted the persistent circulation ASCAT the other day. We really need to get this high and that hot Mexican air out of the way before we can take full advantage of any storm.

2. We have a bunch of models who see lots of reasons to send SOMETHING to TX. So if something does spin up we'll have some confidence in it.


Lots of lurking Texans on the blog I bet. As much as we could use some cooling rain, I'd never wish for even a tropical storm in our direction. Tropical storms are too unpredictable, and can obviously change track and intensity in a short time frame. The science is getting better every year, but the real impact of a storm is always scary and sometimes heartbreaking.

I enjoy the forecasting of most of the folks on this blog. The banter is enjoyable most of the time.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
If that happened and ended up at the surface, would verify the GFS bigtime. lol


YUP
Quoting BmtJedi:


Lots of lurking Texans on the blog I bet. As much as we could use some cooling rain, I'd never wish for even a tropical storm in our direction. Tropical storms are too unpredictable, and can obviously change track and intensity in a short time frame. The science is getting better every year, but the real impact of a storm is always scary and sometimes heartbreaking.

I enjoy the forecasting of most of the folks on this blog. The banter is enjoyable most of the time.

Make that THREE Texans!
Wouldn't be shocked to see this storm drift eastward and possibly even south east over the next couple days towards the bend/Tampa area.
2802. 996tt
As indicated early today, convection moving far from center and in land. Seems lime bands speed up in land and the coc weakens fairly rapidly. Never seen one this close to shore get convection back once it splits like this. Thoughts?
weather channel just picked-up on the dry enveloping the system, and the low to the southwest might be starting to have some influence. Good news, since it appeared she was getting a little more organized earlier. We'll see though....as we know conditions can turn on a dime.
Is Debbie stalling?
Quoting washingaway:
Debby may give birth to the Atlantic, look at what's crossing central Florida. It appears to be taking on it's on idenity. ????





Didn't the GFS show two storms a few days out? It seems like it showed that either yesterday or the day before.
2806. THL3
If that mess by the Yucatan even thinks about spinning the odds makers in Vegas will be all over it. Place your bets on Model ####.
Quoting washingaway:
Debby may give birth to the Atlantic, look at what's crossing central Florida. It appears to be taking on it's on idenity. ????





Is the two tropical low split still posibble?
Well the power has blinked once. Lots of pine limbs and palm fronds everywhere but just 2.5" of rain so far in PCB. Reports from St. George Island, Indian Pass and points east are not as good.
2809. dewfree
deadman cove landing,hum.okie dokie then . right down the middle of target . It will accur late tonight or tommarow morn sometime. check back later guys keep watching out for each other and being good to each other .you would feel real bad if tree fell on someone house you were bickering with and they was no longer with us !!
If this trend continues, we could see final advisory on debby sometime tomorrow.
Quoting redwagon:

Make that THREE Texans!
Four!
Anyone think we'll have a season like 2005 ? Just wondering. hmmm