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Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico

By: angelafritz 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2501. scott39
EURO worshipers, need to get off thier knees on this one!
What's funny is that Debby is getting stronger but it is still getting broader, my gosh. Debby's center is so far way but with the weather are having in West Central Florida you'd think the TS vort center is 100 miles to our west ;)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 242° at 43 knots (From the WSW at ~ 49.4 mph
2504. LargoFl
she's up to 60 mph now,getting a lil stronger,those up in the panhandle start preparing folks if you havent already
So, what's going on with Debby?
2506. icmoore
Quoting Grothar:



Sure, have a good time. While your're out golfing were are getting hammered. :)


Is it 5:00 already ? :)
Quoting charlottefl:
Maybe this was posted, but new to me:






If there is a track or update from NHC it has been posted, again and again and........ : )
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


It could go anywhere, because this storm has fooled you, me and the Apparently the National Hurricane Center and ECWMF


Remember that while the ECMWF is historically a great model, and still is, it isn't a "computer god" plus I think the GFS is now on equal par with e ECMWF because of it's recent upgrade. The GFS did far better Beryl too by the way.
Quoting PackManWx:
according to that gfs, the low is still off the FL coast on Tuesday..

looks like the GFS has it slowing down...which may mean the gfs wants to flip toward a west solution
It's not changing it's mind.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, what's going on with Debby?

Morning TA! Debby is up to 60mph and quite a few of the models shifted east.
2512. Drakoen
The trough coming down from Canada is digging deep and eroding the eastern side of the high pressure center over the plains. The 500mb charts from the SPC Mesoanalysis show that the 588dm line has retreated westward over the past 4 hours.

I guess what the determining factor is,
WHEN will it to be too late for debby to head east?

In other words, at what time can we say, "well, debby missed her chance to go east, west it is!"
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, what's going on with Debby?


The hurricane hunters found a north eastotion at one an 60 mph winds do the floridians are having a euro Texas NHC bashing party
Video of Debby flooding siesta key south of Tampa:
Siesta Key Flooding
Quoting uptxcoast:
I am going to stick with the NHC cone because they have been pretty accurate the past few years despite this blog! Besides I can't afford to dismiss it.

Best best would to have this thing move on shore quickly (EAST) and scoot it out of here. That is my wishcasting.

One thing I have learned following this blog for 7 years is there will always be disagreements right up until landfall.

My Prediction? I go with the experts. NHC track. My opinion moves with the cone.


Best Advise yet
lt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 233° at 56 knots (From the SW at ~ 64.4 mph)
I see while the blog hasn't updated yet, Doc or Angela updated the map showing where she might be going. And she'll be a Cat 1. I'm not liking it...

But good morning, everyone!
2519. LargoFl
Local meterologist thinks the NHC needs and will adjust their forecast cone.

He expects the cone to change at the next advisory.
Quoting Ameister12:

Morning TA! Debby is up to 60mph and quite a few of the models shifted east.

Wow...more confusion..
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It's not changing it's mind.


Says who?
2523. icmoore
Pretty thick stuff coming in now I can hear blowing against the windows.
Tornado warning north Lee County Fl.
Says me
Quoting weatherh98:


Says who?
2526. scott39
Shes already at 27.5N. Theres not much water left to the N before she says....LAND HO!!
2527. LargoFl
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Tornado warning north Lee County Fl.
geez its starting
Quoting Drakoen:
The trough coming down from Canada is digging deep and eroding the eastern side of the high pressure center over the plains. The 500mb charts from the SPC Mesoanalysis show that the 588dm line has retreated westward over the past 4 hours.

The trough is also slightly to the west of where the models were indicating. Even yesterday, most models predicted the trof axis to be over Lake Ontario at this time, but it is going to drop down over Michigan and Huron
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wow...more confusion..


Did I mention that all the "Texas solutioners" must eat Floridian served crow now? It hasn't even hit and is moving their way at 1 measle mile per hour
2530. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Says me


Wish casts

Everyone does it haha
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, what's going on with Debby?
Well the cone hasn't changed much and she is crawling to the North with a hair to the East. I have the COC around 87 W 27.5 N, looks stationary to me.

Debby Long Floater - Visible Imagery Loop
Good Morning. I went to sleep last night in Tallahassee around 11:30 (bone dry) concerned about NWS throwing up some TS watches or warnings based on the "drift" towards the Big Bend. Nice to see that NWS finally came through for portions of Florida and I have a few bands just south of me now.

No comment on the problematic forecast. NWS is subject to the same models we look at ans this has been a tough system to nail down. Part of it is the location of formation and the drift to the North. The Eastern Big Bend is one of the "safe" zones on the Florida coast because most storms headed our way are already formed as they curve in past the Keys, they miss us, and head towards the Panhandle from Panama City Eastward.

Much easier to forecast a fully formed storm heading into the Gulf rather than one lingering in weak steering.

The loud frogs in my back yard last night out performed the models in terms of some rain for my parts................Debby remains a Florida storm for the time being.

Quoting LargoFl:
geez its starting
Yes and I believe the warning for both Lee and Charlotte County also
Quoting icmoore:
Pretty thick stuff coming in now I can hear blowing against the windows.


Location? (So i can post your local radar)
Quoting ncstorm:
well of course Joe is still sticking with texas but our favorite supplier of model runs Allan Huffman disagrees..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Euro Ensembles indicate its operational model is an outlier in track of Debby. Many stay on west track to Texas


1h Allan Huffman Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx

@BigJoeBastardi Not sure I agree, there is a huge spread from TX to FL amongst the members. Op Euro is almost in the middle of the spread.
Is that the same Joe Bastardi who's still trying to cover his blown forecast for Chris by claiming the NHC fudged its numbers because it wasn't a hurricane, and probably not even a tropical storm? No, thanks. His forecast skills are no better than the average WU member's--and, in fact, may be worse due to his hubris. Which is bad, because people for some reason still actually pay him.

If I want advice on tropical weather, I'll stick with the NHC. JB should stick with bodybuilding...
going to check out the gom,here on siesta key,sarasota,winds have increased to 30 sustained atleast,tornado warning for ft myers area now!!,expect a tornado watch for swfl/west centra fl areas
lol
Quoting weatherh98:


Wish casts

Everyone does it haha
2539. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
FLC015-071-241300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0008.120624T1230Z-120624T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
830 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 830 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF BABCOCK WEBB WMA...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF
FORT MYERS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BABCOCK WEBB WMA.
BABCOCK RANCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

&&

LAT...LON 2673 8193 2704 8185 2703 8156 2689 8156
2670 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1230Z 200DEG 41KT 2680 8183

$$
my in-laws still don't know what to do...

they are traveling down to orlando from NC on tuesday and have until 4PM monday to cancel their reservations..

they keep asking if the precip will be out of FL by tuesday night (either way)... and i just don't have a clear answer for them
2541. GetReal



I place the center of Debbie near 27.5N and 87.5W. Also note that the latest highest surface pressures observed are to the north and east of Debbie. Debbie will seek out the path of least resistance, and turn towards the area of lowest pressure which is to west and NW of Debbie towards the SE or central La coast.

IMO

Debby is NE of the Model!!!
People need to keep in mind a Texas solution is still very much possible, but yet so is Florida, but it could head north into NOLA. Ugh... my head.
Quoting weatherh98:


Did I mention that all the "Texas solutioners" must eat Floridian served crow now? It hasn't even hit and is moving their way at 1 measle mile per hour
You should calm down. Your stress level for such a young man at this early hour of the day is WAY too high.

Winds are really picking up in my neck of the woods. I'm sitting on my porch watching the low clouds stream by at a good 50-60 mph. :)
I sure hope she doesn't follow Doc's map above. NOLA will be on the wrong side and if she goes as slow as she has been, it won't be pretty.
It's coming down very, very hard with gusts to about 40 mph with some convection moving overhead.
NHC
Coin toss. Heads the cone points towards Florida, tails it points to Texas.

Organization increasing.

Reorganization and some light to moderate convection starting to wrap left side of the CoC.




Don't be deceived by the slight decrease in convection on the far east side. Throughout the day, we should begin to see stacking and a CDO forming as the ULL continues to weaken and pull away to the SW.
2549. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:
It's coming down very, very hard with gusts to about 40 mph with some convection moving overhead.
yeah pouring rain and windyyyyy
We must have just had a stronger band move in, had a really hard gust of wind that blew some branches down and a little downpour. I went to bed figuring on a rainy day with some light wind gusts and woke up to a Tropical Storm on the door step. Grrrrr
2551. icmoore
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Location? (So i can post your local radar)


Sorry I just saw your post. I am in Madeira Beach about a block and ahalf away from the coast. It is a tiny Beach in between Treasure Island and Reddington Beach.
Quoting gator23:

NHC is waiting on consistency from run to run on the models. Look for a cone change at 11
Everybody does realize that the cone graphic only changes at 11 and 5, EDT, right? Even if NHC is proposing a track change @ 8 or 2, I can't recall ever seeing the GRAPHIC reflect that change at the time....

Quoting TampaCat5:
It's going to hit Florida, than pull south a little and head west along the Gulf coast all the way to Texas. Everyone is right!! :)
Actually, this may not be as far off / wacky as some may think. There have been coast rakers before.

Quoting PackManWx:
Even if it did head to florida... much of the precipitation would be out of there by tuesday night since the precip is mainly on the EAST side of the storm...

correct?
If it did head over FL, the NW Bahamas would get another jolly 48 hours of heavy downpours....

2553. GetReal
Quoting Grothar:
The 06z GFS 48 hours out

looks about right . i alwayd liked the gfs :). ( they stick to their guns unlike most
2555. LargoFl
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
714 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
AND ALABAMA GULF COAST...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
ASSUMPTION...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER TERREBONNE...LOWER
TERREBONNE...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES AND LOWER ST. BERNARD.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.5N...LONGITUDE 87.0W. THIS WAS ABOUT 260 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LA...OR ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF GULFPORT MS. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL BE COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE COAST AND SHORES OF THE LAKES.

ON THE LOUISIANA COAST...ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING. COASTAL
AREAS AND ACCESS ROADS TO SHELL BEACH...GRAND ISLE...PORT
FOURCHON...AND LEEVILLE WILL BE IMPACTED.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...
OTHER IMPACTS ON THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LAKE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS OVER 12 FEET AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL TO MODERATE WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
FURTHER INLAND.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS AROUND 11 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-251215 -
/O.CON.KLIX.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
714 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION
THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR MANY HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 65 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
80 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES. SEAS
OF 12 TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

$$
I still doubt Debby is going to Florida. The upper Texas coast looks likely. Although, people living in Florida won't tell the difference.
2557. Drakoen
Expect moisture in the right front quadrant of Debby to continue to spread northward impact the majority of the west coast of Florida and especially the panhandle where over a foot of rain could occur according to the GFS whose representation of the convective intensity and spatial pattern has been the best out of the numerical forecast models.


2558. scott39
Texas take your cans of Tuna back to Walmart. Debbie is NOT going to visit you.
Because with this image you can see how Florida is gonna get the coc.

SARCASM FLAG ON

lt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 234° at 54 knots (From the SW at ~ 62.1 mph)
On a good note, the rain coverage for Florida has been excellent......Just what the Dr. ordered in terms of drought relief..
Could Debby clip LA and head west to TX?
Cantore is in Pensacola Beach.
Quoting scott39:
Texas take your cans of Tuna back to Walmart. Debbie is NOT going to visit you.

Stop spreading false information on the blog. You are no expert, and even if you were, the NHC is your only reliable hurricane source for official track and intensity, which happens to show it going for Texas.
Quoting StormHype:
Video of Debby flooding siesta key south of Tampa:
Siesta Key Flooding
,localized street flooding,happens in that area anytime we get more than .50 in a hr,i live about 10blocks north right on beach road,ima go to the north end where peoples front yards are 30ft from the waterline on the beach,first areas to get coastal flooding,i worry if debby moves east,we get south winds and siesta gets flooded,doesnt take much 3-5ft above normal does it,anyways going down to the gulf i'll take some pics!
2566. 10Speed
It's official. Now that south Sebring, FL has received some rain, no one in Florida (other than irrigation supervisors or aquatic farmers) is authorized to complain about the lack of precipitation. We don't want to hear it anymore.

Good morning everyone! Enjoy your coffee, bloody Mary's or whatever your choice of poison is. WX intrigue is a promise today!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Everybody does realize that the cone graphic only changes at 11 and 5, EDT, right? Even if NHC is proposing a track change @ 8 or 2, I can't recall ever seeing the GRAPHIC reflect that change at the time....

Actually, this may not be as far off / wacky as some may think. There have been coast rakers before.

If it did head over FL, the NW Bahamas would get another jolly 48 hours of heavy downpours....



I've only seen it one time. With Hurricane Charley. They did a 2PM adjustment to the track...
Quoting icmoore:


Sorry I just saw your post. I am in Madeira Beach about a block and ahalf away from the coast. It is a tiny Beach in between Treasure Island and Reddington Beach.


2569. LargoFl
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On a good note, the rain coverage for Florida has been excellent......Just what the Dr. ordered in terms of drought relief..
sure is, much needed rains for sure
Quoting Jedkins01:
It's coming down very, very hard with gusts to about 40 mph with some convection moving overhead.
Just received those wind gusts here, the weather is pretty nasty outside my fruits trees in the backyard were just swaying around. Must've been a squall.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I still doubt Debby is going to Florida. The upper Texas coast looks likely. Although, people living in Florida won't tell the difference.


Hey, give the texans time to wake up and then the crow throwing can begin

@floridians texans war
Quoting Drakoen:
Expect moisture in the right front quadrant of Debby to continue to spread northward impact the majority of the west coast of Florida and especially the panhandle where over a foot of rain could occur according to the GFS whose representation of the convective intensity and spatial pattern has been the best out of the numerical forecast models.




Hey...........I am north of Tally about 20 miles off 319. You getting any rain near downtown Tallahassee?
Quoting Articuno:
Could Debby clip LA and head west to TX?


Very likely now using NHC track and current location of the storm
2574. LargoFl
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
832 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR
COASTAL TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

.TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS CENTERED ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AS OF 8 AM EDT. A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A GREATER RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.

FLZ118-127-250000-
/O.CON.KTAE.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120625T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-
832 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
OVERALL STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AROUND THE
TIMES OF THESE HIGH TIDES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD
CAUSE OVERWASH ON COASTAL ROADWAYS SUCH AS HIGHWAY 98. WATER
MAY ALSO BEGIN TO SURROUND STRUCTURES IN LOW LYING AREAS THAT
ARE NOT RAISED ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

&&
Just to make it official:

AL, 04, 2012062412, , BEST, 0, 278N, 865W, 50, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 220, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,
Quoting Clearwater1:
WOW, Debby is doing exactly what the GFS predicted to this point, at least up till now, and maybe beyond. Who knows, the other west running models may do a 180 and Florida may see a storm after all, via the GFS scenario.
that would be nice. I would like the rain ( just the rain) and maybe a monday off :)
Well, out to paint the deck while it's only 80 degrees. Really hoping to get all the painting done before any rain hits Louisiana, but I doubt I'll get all of it done.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I still doubt Debby is going to Florida. The upper Texas coast looks likely. Although, people living in Florida won't tell the difference.

I'm with you TA... Lots of Florida-casters on this morning... If 12z models stay east then I'll believe it.
2579. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
Good Morning. Debby has gotten much better organized overnight. I think they should have extended the warning farther eastward to include the big bend region.


Morning... I thought they would have a bit earlier today, but I guess they're waiting on more HH center fixes.
Quoting PackManWx:
my in-laws still don't know what to do...

they are traveling down to orlando from NC on tuesday and have until 4PM monday to cancel their reservations..

they keep asking if the precip will be out of FL by tuesday night (either way)... and i just don't have a clear answer for them



By tomorrow afternoon they will know what the weather will be for Tuesday. Sucks when a vaca is involved though.
How long will recon be investigating?
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Alright, Can anyone pinpoint the Center?



Looks about 200 miles by 200 wide lol
2584. Drakoen
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hey...........I am north of Tally about 20 miles off 319. You getting any rain near downtown Tallahassee?


Yes moderate rain. A heavier band of rain is just to our south moving northward.
Quoting Drakoen:
Expect moisture in the right front quadrant of Debby to continue to spread northward impact the majority of the west coast of Florida and especially the panhandle where over a foot of rain could occur according to the GFS whose representation of the convective intensity and spatial pattern has been the best out of the numerical forecast models.





Indeed, we aren't that far away from 3 inches here already, the ground is looking rather water logged to say the least, the drain ditch behind me is to the brim.

I'm still a little worried about some tornadoes spinning up with those stronger cells headed toward the Tampa Bay area from the southwest, shear is pretty respectable over this area right now.


The GFS has done well with precip so far.

2586. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stop spreading false information.
Hey bud thats my OPINION. Im not a met any more than you are. Havent you been watching the NHC track and models shift to the right??? And expect them to do more so as the day continues. Debbie is already at 27.5N and crawling N. Im just not seeing a Texas landfall here. Sorry :(
2587. LargoFl
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm with you TA... Lots of Florida-casters on this morning... If 12z models stay east then I'll believe it.


Texans can't defend themselves the sun is barely up over there
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How long will recon be investigating?

New plane goes out at 2PM EDT.
COC is approaching the FL coastline pretty quickly, running out of real estate to turn...
Couple of interesting storm reports this morning:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
755 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM TROPICAL STORM 18 S STANDLEYS STORE 29.41N 84.86W
06/24/2012 GMZ755 FL C-MAN STATION

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AS HIGH AS 44 MPH
SINCE 3 AM CDT. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 48 MPH.
0335 PM TORNADO 3 ESE NAPLES 26.12N 81.75W
06/23/2012 COLLIER FL NWS STORM SURVEY

SURVEY OF DAMAGE IN EAST NAPLES REVEALED MAINLY BROKEN
TREE BRANCHES, UPROOTED SMALL TREES AND A PALM TREE SPLIT
IN HALF. A POOL LANAI WAS HEAVILY DAMAGED, BUT ONLY MINOR
ROOF DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES WAS NOTED. WELL-DEFINED DAMAGE
PATH SUGGESTS LOW-END F0 TORNADO WITH WINDS LIKELY NO
MORE THAN 70 MPH. DISCONTINUOUS PATH LENGTH APPROXIMATELY
1.7 MILES WITH WIDTH LIKELY NO MORE THAN 10-20 YARDS.

0400 PM TORNADO 2 E VANDERBILT BEACH 26.27N 81.79W
06/23/2012 COLLIER FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 INJ *** PROBABLE BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT NORTH
COLLIER HOSPITAL ON CORNER OF IMMOKALEE AND
GOODLETTE-FRANK ROADS IN NORTH NAPLES AREA. DAMAGE
REPORTED TO TREES AND LIGHT POLES, BUT NO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. A PERSON WAS STRUCK BY A DOWNED TREE LIMB AND WAS
TREATED ON-SITE. TORNADO LIKELY SPAWNED BY SAME STORM
THAT PRODUCED EARLIER TORNADO IN EAST NAPLES.
Not exactly Joplin-like; you can't get much weaker than a "low-end EF-0". Basically a wet dust devil... ;-)

Ok looking at this she is eaither getting wrapped or has started a turn NW Ummm

The Cone of Doom NEVER lies :)

Quoting scott39:
Hey bud thats my OPINION. Im not a met any more than you are. Havent you been watching the NHC track and models shift to the right??? And expect them to do more so as the day continues. Debbie is already at 27.5N and crawling N. Im just not seeing a Texas landfall here. Sorry :(

Well, just be sure to state that it is your opinion so people don't think it is an official product.
I know I said this before but,


LET'S ALL MEET IN TE MIDDLE.

NOLA
Quoting newportrinative:



By tomorrow afternoon they will know what the weather will be for Tuesday. Sucks when a vaca is involved though.


so you think, at the latest, by monday afternoon we should know which direction this storm is headed?
possibly earlier?
2597. Drakoen
Tropical storm force conditions in Largo, FL. Don't really understand why no warnings have been issued for West Central Fl. Power has gone out once already. Strange storm.
Quoting blsealevel:
Ok looking at this she is eaither getting wrapped or has started a turn NW Ummm



I said it looked like a jog nw on satellite
Quoting Neapolitan:
Is that the same Joe Bastardi who's still trying to cover his blown forecast for Chris by claiming the NHC fudged its numbers because it wasn't a hurricane, and probably not even a tropical storm? No, thanks. His forecast skills are no better than the average WU member's--and, in fact, may be worse due to his hubris. Which is bad, because people for some reason still actually pay him.

If I want advice on tropical weather, I'll stick with the NHC. JB should stick with bodybuilding...

I can't listen to Bastardi, especially when he got on a national radio show and said Irene was going to wipe out New York city and everyone was going to die. Turned out that didn't happen of course, not even close.
2601. ackee
I am surprise that seem like the GFS may be right about Debby after all guess all those in FL must be jumping with joy now I can't be euro may be wrong
Wunderground needs to change wind speed to 60MPH not 55!
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes moderate rain. A heavier band of rain is just to our south moving northward.


Yup. Probably down around Crawfordville slowly rotating our way. I agree with you; NHC should have thrown up at least a TS wind watch for the Big Bend too.
Other than a VERY slight move towards the north and maybe east, Debby's center position remains unchanged from where it was last night.
Quoting weatherh98:


The hurricane hunters found a north eastotion at one an 60 mph winds do the floridians are having a euro Texas NHC bashing party
yep
Quoting Jedkins01:



Indeed, we aren't that far away from 3 inches here already, the ground is looking rather water logged to say the least, the drain ditch behind me is to the brim.

I'm still a little worried about some tornadoes spinning up with those stronger cells headed toward the Tampa Bay area from the southwest, shear is pretty respectable over this area right now.


The GFS has done well with precip so far.



Man it is absolutely pouring here right now. Yeah everyone needs to be on the look out a lot of veering between the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere. Was out on the porch watching that as we were getting warnings yesterday..
Linker on BN9 is forecasting Debby to stall for 48 hours then begin a slow drift NE. Their "in-house computer model" which apparently has done well with this system is suggesting over a foot of rain could fall just north of the Bay along the immediate coast.
2608. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, just be sure to state that it is your opinion so people don't think it is an official product.
To think anyone took that as being official is well....laughable...lighten up dude!
Quoting charlottefl:
COC is approaching the FL coastline pretty quickly, running out of real estate to turn...


Moving NNE

2610. LargoFl
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Linker on BN9 is forecasting Debby to stall for 48 hours then begin a slow drift NE. Their "in-house computer model" which apparently has done well with this system is suggesting over a foot of rain could fall just north of the Bay along the immediate coast.
yes its a heavy rainmaker alright,we may be getting all this way into tuesday can you believe that
I think due to the windfield expanding, some folk are mis-perceiving it with the actual system moving northward. Just my two cents.
2612. Drakoen
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Other than a VERY slight move towards the north and maybe east, Debby's center position remains unchanged from where it was last night.


Exactly. She is not moving much right now. Landfall is still 2-3 days away according to the numerical models. It just doesn't seem so because she is just off our shores.
I hope my family in Pensacola doesn't get too much more rain.

When does the next NHC advisory come out?
Quoting charlottefl:
COC is approaching the FL coastline pretty quickly, running out of real estate to turn...
The center is moving very slowwlllyyyy. Not going to make landfall anywhere for at LEAST 24 hours.
Circulation gonna wrap for us?
Quoting panamasteve:
Cantore is in Pensacola Beach.

heh heh Texas you have a chance after all
Some of the radar-estimated velocities in the bands offshore are approaching 75 mph.

2618. LargoFl
Quoting ackee:
I am surprise that seem like the GFS may be right about Debby after all guess all those in FL must be jumping with joy now I can't be euro may be wrong
the way its getting stronger, i dont think texas wants this storm,alot of people would be suffering next week
Quoting HurrAndrew:
I think due to the windfield expanding, some folk are mis-perceiving it with the actual system moving northward. Just my two cents.

Exactly

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
OCHOLOCKONEE RIVER. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK
NOR INTENSITY.
2620. Grothar
Quoting weatherh98:
Because with this image you can see how Florida is gonna get the coc.

SARCASM FLAG ON



There is no reason for sarcasm. Very few people are actually saying the center will hit Florida. Most have maintained that it would move much further North and East than the models had. And it did. Most people were simply observing the impulse which would bring the system further NE. And it was obviously there. As you can see, the majority of the weather is affecting Florida and will likely affect much of the Northern Gulf Coast. We can see the high pressure ridge which will most likely move the system west. People who have observed these types of systems know that many times, there is very little weather around the center of circulation until it consolidates. In the meantime, areas can be affected very badly far away from the center, which has obviously happened. Don't be too quick to judge what other people have to say. You wouldn't want anyone being sarcastic with you if you have an opinion. I have always seen everyone being courteous to you. It would be nice if you could reciprocate once in awhile.
Quoting charlottefl:


Man it is absolutely pouring here right now. Yeah everyone needs to be on the look out a lot of veering between the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere. Was out on the porch watching that as we were getting warnings yesterday..


2622. 900MB
Looks like a NOLA storm to me. Just sayin.
2623. LargoFl
Quoting DentalPainDMD:
I hope my family in Pensacola doesn't get too much more rain.

When does the next NHC advisory come out?
11am i think
When you get under these storms, they are dropping huge amounts of rain in a very short period of time. If you live in the Panhandle, I would for sure prepare for some flooding.
2625. LargoFl
I loose power in my neighborhood as soon as the wind blows so I will check in from time to time as I can but no worries here; only a rain event for us ...The Coastal areas of Florida are really getting battered and now we have to keep an eye on possible tornadoes across the State.

I hope she does not intensify while continuing to skirt the coast for the next 24 hours.
Quoting Drakoen:


Exactly. She is not moving much right now. Landfall is still 2-3 days away according to the numerical models. It just doesn't seem so because she is just off our shores.


Are you still sticking with the GFS?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Debby is NE of the Model!!!
what on earth is the bamm model thinking
Little rotating storms over S.W. Fl.
Quoting Grothar:


There is no reason for sarcasm. Very few people are actually saying the center will hit Florida. Most have maintained that it would move much further North and East than the models had. And it did. Most people were simply observing the impulse which would bring the system further NE. And it was obviously there. As you can see, the majority of the weather is affecting Florida and will likely affect much of the Northern Gulf Coast. We can see the high pressure ridge which will most likely move the system west. People who have observed these types of systems know that many times, there is very little weather around the center of circulation until it consolidates. In the meantime, areas can be affected very badly far away from the center, which has obviously happened. Don't be too quick to judge what other people have to say. You wouldn't want anyone being sarcastic with you if you have an opinion. I have always seen everyone being courteous to you. It would be nice if you could reciprocate once in awhile.
Well said Grothar ty again
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Moving NNE



No. It's an optical illusion of the cloud tops expanding.

It isn't moving that fast
Quoting panamasteve:
Cantore is in Pensacola Beach.
Tell him to go home we need him about like we need the Weather Channel!!!!!
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Are you still sticking with the GFS?
yep
2635. scott39
At 27.5 and crawling N at 2mph. How is Debbies COC NOT going to hit LA. land first. It does not compute.
2636. Drakoen
Quoting charlottefl:
When you get under these storms, they are dropping huge amounts of rain in a very short period of time. If you live in the Panhandle, I would for sure prepare for some flooding.


Yes. I was being conservative with what the GFS was showing. 1-2ft of rain is really what the GFS wants to paint across the Panhandle and Big Bend regions.
2637. LargoFl
Quoting GTcooliebai:
hiya GT..hows the weather over by you?
Who will win the battle of the "Tug of War" East Coast Trough vs. Central Plains Ridge.
Heavy rain in Panama City Beach right now, not sure of wind speed but my 135ft ham radio antenna that has been up for months in a couple of 75ft. pine trees is pulling it's end weights from ground level up 20 feet on one end...
Quoting scott39:
To think anyone took that as being official is well....laughable...lighten up dude!

TropicalAnalyst is correct. If you are going to make a statement like that on here you need to end it with IMO. Just do what others do on here.
2641. LargoFl
Quoting weatherh98:


Hey, give the texans time to wake up and then the crow throwing can begin

@floridians texans war
A Texan here born in Waco, Lived in Austin area for over 40 years and Debby seems to be just a rainmaker for Florida, maybe too much rain for parts of that state? I have a drought going on here I don't need a flood on top of that anyway. I am OK with the Heat and Lower humidity so keep Debby in Florida that is Cool with this Texan. I have nothing against anyone from Florida, have a good day. I also lived in Louisiana, another state that gets alot of rain just like Florida.
@Grothar - nice response, re: the sarcasm flag. That's precisely why it's so good to have you around here.
I'm not an expert by any means but have noticed over the years watching these storms that when an Upper Level Low (ULL) is near a forming cyclone and a developing cyclone, the models are all over the place. This is one of those times.

Correct me if I'm wrong but just something I've noticed.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Who will win the battle of the "Tug of War" East Coast Trough vs. Central Plains Ridge.

I hope the ridge wins and it goes into Texas. They need the rain, Florida is already getting a bunch of it, and they've had a tropical storm (Beryl) already.
2646. Drakoen
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Are you still sticking with the GFS?


Right now, I agree with the GFS, GFDL, CMC models. I think the European models initialized Debby a degree or so farther west than where it really was. Water vapor imagery shows the trough digging in deep into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
2647. air360
Alright - After much analysis and studying the models and all the conditions involved...I am ready to make my prediction. I am very confident, near 100%, on this forecast. There will be no future updates as this is 100% accurate. Debby will make landfall between South Padre Island, Texas and Key West, Fl.

Now I know you all may be impressed, amazed, or even blown away (no pun intended) by my amazing forecast ability...but I believe with a lot of hard work and studying any one on this board can be just as good, if not better than I am.

Good luck yall!

Don't get pissed...just smile...because you know you have to agree that the above is the only thing that is certain right now.
Quoting LargoFl:
hiya GT..hows the weather over by you?
Having a few rain bands moving in with gusty winds, bending some of the smaller trees.
2650. scott39
Quoting TXCaneCrasher:

TropicalAnalyst is correct. If you are going to make a statement like that on here you need to end it with IMO. Just do what others do on here.
It was a sarcastic joke about cans of Tuna...Sheesh

It's been raining and thundering pretty much all morning long here in Oakland Park. Nice way to wake up on a Sunday morning :)
I'm out for now I'll pop in throughout the day, I have a swim meet
Forecast for a Texas storm becoming "more and more less likely."
That's from our local meteorolgist.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
A Texan here born in Waco, Lived in Austin area for over 40 years and Debby seems to be just a rainmaker for Florida, maybe too much rain for parts of that state? I have a drought going on here I don't need a flood on top of that anyway. I am OK with the Heat and Lower humidity so keep Debby in Florida that is Cool with this Texan. I have nothing against anyone from Florida, have a good day. I also lived in Louisiana, another state that gets alot of rain just like Florida.


Your welcome to come live in Florida. :)
Quoting Flawestcoast:
Tropical storm force conditions in Largo, FL. Don't really understand why no warnings have been issued for West Central Fl. Power has gone out once already. Strange storm.
A power outage is not a sign that TS warnings are required... Debby wasn't even a TD on Thursday... we got rain here all day - torrential at times, with some strong gusts - and yes, there were a few power outages....

Just sayin'....

[Though I gotta admit Tampa area is getting some pretty good rain from this. About time, I'd say...]

Quoting air360:
Alright - After much analysis and studying the models and all the conditions involved...I am ready to make my prediction. I am very confident, near 100%, on this forecast. There will be no future updates as this is 100% accurate. Debby will make landfall between South Padre Island, Texas and Key West, Fl.

Now I know you all may be impressed, amazed, or even blown away (no pun intended) by my amazing forecast ability...but I believe with a lot of hard work and studying any one on this board can be just as good, if not better than I am.

Good luck yall!

Don't get pissed...just smile...because you know you have to agree that the above is the only thing that is certain right now.
+1
2657. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
857 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ069-070-241345-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
857 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 945 AM EDT

* AT 851 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT...
MARCO ISLAND...
MARCO ISLAND AIRPORT...
BELLE MEADE...
SOUTH NAPLES...
NAPLES...
WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2632 8167 2641 8167 2641 8154 2589 8156
2590 8162 2589 8164 2590 8165 2589 8169
2587 8166 2586 8167 2586 8170 2591 8174
2599 8176 2609 8181 2633 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1255Z 178DEG 17KT 2594 8182

$$
GARCIA
2658. Grothar
Hey, do we know anyone in De Funiak Springs?


cyclones?all.are.different.w.fl.might.get.the.worst .of.this.one
When do you think we will know for certain which direction (east or west) this thing is headed?

By tomorrow afternoon?
2661. air360
Quoting weatherh98:
I'm out for now I'll pop in throughout the day, I have a swim meet


Hopefully it is not being hosted at the beach on the west side of FL :)
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, do we know anyone in De Funiak Springs?




Ike?
Quoting Drakoen:


Right now, I agree with the GFS, GFDL, CMC models. I think the European models initialized Debby a degree or so farther west than where it really was. Water vapor imagery shows the trough digging in deep into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.


Alright, Thanks. It appears you were correct yesterday when you favored an east track.

Models shifted to agree with you.

The Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida has lots of trees and our biggest worry, inland, is trees falling on houses and cars (happens even during strong t-storms).

This could be a real problem; a slow soaking rain into the roots and branches for 12-24 hours, she tightens up offshore, and, a few stronger bands from the wind field come back in tomorrow.......Down come the trees.

All folks living in North Florida would be well advised to move your parked cars and boats away from under trees if that is the case and be careful driving out there.
Can tell you this, Debby is gettng her act together on the west side finally! IMHO I got this gut feeling like I had with IKE which is not good! IMHO I think SETX is not out of the woods yet. I am watching Debby carefully!
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, do we know anyone in De Funiak Springs?



Ike!
2667. LargoFl
.......................................st.petersb urg beach cam
Yeah, IIRC Ike is Defuniak. It's been awhile since I've been here but pretty certain that is correct.
Quoting weatherh98:
I'm out for now I'll pop in throughout the day, I have a swim meet
Don't be gone for long; you would't want to miss the opportunity to argue if someone mentions Debby going somewhere besides west!
Quoting Kristina40:
Yeah, IIRC Ike is Defuniak. It's been awhile since I've been here but pretty certain that is correct.
About 50 miles North of me.
GFS is the boss and all other models need to get in line behind it.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Don't be gone for long; you would't want to miss the opportunity to argue if someone mentions Debby going somewhere besides west!


Snicker Snicker. Lol
Aww man Rutgers website hasn't updated their index of images. Water Vapor Loop
I am in Panama City as well.
Am I seeing things? On visible it looks like there is a convective CoC racing north away from the low level center, which isn't budging.
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, do we know anyone in De Funiak Springs?




Our long time poster, Ike, is from Defuniak but he stopped posting this year...........
IKE - I'm not far from there...
Quoting panamasteve:


Ike?
Pensacola looks ok right now but the weathers about to change for them tonight and tommorrow possiable 1 to 2 inch's over night but this could change by the hour






Link
2679. LargoFl
..............hope that gfs run is wrong, thats way too close for comfort
2680. icmoore
Quoting shoreacres:
@Grothar - nice response, re: the sarcasm flag. That's precisely why it's so good to have you around here.


I guess I need more coffee to wake up my brain because everyone has been saying FL ain't getting it and what I am seeing out my window and on that sat pic , says say what!?! I have been thinking GFS and history and who knows still.
Whatever happened to orca?? I think she had a google map with all of the bloggers' locations plotted on it
2682. centex
The only thing moving is the models and forecast track. Could see some record swings with this system. Hard for them to smooth this out.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Your welcome to come live in Florida. :)
I would Love the Beaches and the Fishing but I am not a fan of your humidity and to me there is such thing as too much rain, when I lived in La. during the Summer it rained every stinking day some years. Never been to Florida, I may have to visit.
Quoting Kristina40:
I am in Panama City as well.
Out on the Beach--near 79 and Back Beach road.
2685. Drakoen
Debby is currently playing tug a war with ridge and the trough so expect so erratic but slow motion as we go throughout the day today.
That would be ZooMiami with the Mao. I think Orca has a link to the map on his blog.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Whatever happened to orca?? I think she had a google map with all of the bloggers' locations plotted on it
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Whatever happened to orca?? I think she had a google map with all of the bloggers' locations plotted on it

LOL Orca is a he, and I think Zoomiami has the map
2689. LargoFl
bay news9 just said there is a bad storm cell headed for pinellas, should be here in about a half hour, has a history of water spouts etc..gee we dont need tornado's here..real bad morning it looks like for us
From NWS Chat: 08:52 AM EDT -- widespread power outages across st. george island (near Apalachicola). Roughly 10 mins ago from Eric Fisher. Not sure if you have to quote sources.
11am update "should" show some major changes in the forecast track.
Ah, I'm in town near 231 and Transmitter. Nothing too heavy here, yet.
looks like a eye has fourmed on the rader

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I would Love the Beaches and the Fishing but I am not a fan of your humidity and to me there is such thing as too much rain, when I lived in La. during the Summer it rained every stinking day some years. Never been to Florida, I may have to visit.
I think you would feel very at home in the "nature coast" area of Florida (aka pasco, hernando, citrus counties. I've visited the coastal areas of La and the mangroves and marshes definitely remind me of my home turf in fl.
Hello all I live in Tallahassee florida and looks like we are in for a bumpy ride here any idea what we can expect
6z GFDL stays east



6z HWRF shifts east some, actually follows the NHC track pretty well... Note the unrealistic intensity...

2697. ncstorm


2698. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, do we know anyone in De Funiak Springs?




How is Ike? I don't see him on here anymore.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Whatever happened to orca?? I think she had a google map with all of the bloggers' locations plotted on it
Orca is he. I think he still maintains his blog... and his map is still up....
2701. jpsb
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Forecast for a Texas storm becoming "more and more less likely."
That's from our local meteorolgist.
Galveston here, I agree, I was going to into prepare mode, but my confidence in a Texas hit is very low. So I am not going to waste time preparing when I have many other important tasks that I need to do. Fla, Al, Ms. La enjoy Debby she is not going to Texas.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Alright, Thanks. It appears you were correct yesterday when you favored an east track.

Models shifted to agree with you.



Are you serious NHC!!! The models are shifting east big time. The system is right up against the coast of Florida It going to take a lot for this storm to turn all the way west into Texas. The models are stating to have a consensus on Florida.
The Weather Channel has switched to somber music. Cantore reports that resort personnel are " furiously trying to get the chairs in. The real problem here are the HUGE lifeguard stands that now must be brought in".
2704. aquak9
Quoting mahep1911:
Hello all I live in Tallahassee florida and looks like we are in for a bumpy ride here any idea what we can expect


a bumpy ride
Quoting waterskiman:

LOL Orca is a he, and I think Zoomiami has the map
Quoting Beachfoxx:
That would be ZooMiami with the Mao. I think Orca has a link to the map on his blog.
My bad orca... and thanks guys/girls lol.
2706. LargoFl
...................jed there's the bad cell coming towards us in that box
2707. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
bay news9 just said there is a bad storm cell headed for pinellas, should be here in about a half hour, has a history of water spouts etc..gee we dont need tornado's here..real bad morning it looks like for us


Thanks Largo.
Good morning Debby!


Quoting ncstorm:




Appears we now have model agreement for the first time with this system....
new video is up!!
Quoting aquak9:


a bumpy ride

lol.
hey aqua
On long range radar, the leading edge of the rotation is slowly headed towards the West due South of Mobile. I cannot tell if that is actual motion of the COC or just expanding band coverage on the western flank.
{{{aqua}}}}
Quoting aquak9:


a bumpy ride
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Rain on all of FL now!:)



Not here in Pensacola...yet. I'm sure it will be here by this afternoon though!
Quoting Drakoen:
Debby is currently playing tug a war with ridge and the trough so expect so erratic but slow motion as we go throughout the day today.
IMO this is the big story with Debby for today... and also IMO worst effects from Debby are likely to come in the areas where storms train for 24 hours.

Such a great way to spend a Sunday.... :o)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
6z GFDL stays east



6z HWRF shifts east some, actually follows the NHC track pretty well... Note the unrealistic intensity...

On this large of a storm that seems like a large and strong Cat 1. Nothing unrealistic about it.
2717. Drakoen
The TVCN has a nice track for the system based on all the computer models and is most agreeable.
Quoting ncstorm:




A consensus of the models are florida bound a Landfall anywhere from Tampa to Pensacola, Florida is likely I expect the cone to do one of the biggest flip flop in years. They were wrong about this storm from the start.
2719. centex
I wouldn't jump on any of the bandwagons just yet.
I see the NHC did not move much from their forecast track.....they are really sticking their necks out on this one unless they are correct. I knew they would never move that track much and would do so in small amounts!
Quoting aquak9:


a bumpy ride



Thanks aquak looks bad out there this system almost reminds me of charley with the shift in track went through that down in Fort Myers. I will try to keep all of you up today with what is happening here in Tallahassee.
Just south of Tampa, Egmont Key Observations: Sustained winds 31 mph Gusts 40 mph around 6 AM:
Link
Quoting wilmingtonistoast:
The Weather Channel has switched to somber music. Cantore reports that resort personnel are " furiously trying to get the chairs in. The real problem here are the HUGE lifeguard stands that now must be brought in".


Are you talking about on Florida's coast. If so we will have overwash on Longboat Key next high tide. The beach near the north end of Longboat has been washed away.
So I get up to an organizing system that's following the GFS? Well, that's half of what I expected!
2725. Drakoen
Looks like the next vortex message will be northeast of the previous.
IF the storm continues to strengthen, and
IF the storm stays large and broad, and
IF the storm starts drifting slowly west like the NHC insists...

How much of a problem would that be for NOLA? Would a large, slow-moving Cat-1 cane moving from the east just offshore be strong enough to pile water up Ponchartrain and the lower Delta region and cause problems?

Have there been any other storms that have strafed the Louisiana coast quite like the NHC forecast track?
Quoting mahep1911:
Hello all I live in Tallahassee florida and looks like we are in for a bumpy ride here any idea what we can expect


I am near Bradfordville......Just rain all day and some power outages. But, beware of falling trees and branches and park your cars and boats accordingly.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I see the NHC did not move much from their forecast track.....they are really sticking their necks out on this one unless they are correct. I knew they would never move that track much and would do so in small amounts!

Makes it look like they blew it less than they did, lol.
Also keeps open the possibility of a shift back west.
2729. LargoFl
Quoting BahaHurican:
IMO this is the big story with Debby for today... and also IMO worst effects from Debby are likely to come in the areas where storms train for 24 hours.

Such a great way to spend a Sunday.... :o)
That training of rain is gonna fall on the SW coast...it is still pouring here and NO way is it gonna stop any time soon. Inland flooding is gonna be a problem in a day or two for sure.
Bay News 9 model still has Debby out in the middle of the GOM by Wed. doing a loop.



Animation
IMO, the cone will move more toward the central gulf..

then if trends continue, they will move it to florida on the 5PM advisory...


will we know for certain by monday afternoon where this thing is going?
Quoting WxGeekVA:
So I get up to an organizing system that's following the GFS? Well, that's half of what I expected!
Next thing you know it will be back to Texas.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On long range radar, the leading edge of the rotation is slowly headed towards the West due South of Mobile. I cannot tell if that is actual motion of the COC or just expanding band coverage on the western flank.


The storm is wrapping up, meaning more rain for LA and Mississippi , the COC is still moving extremely slowly NNE.
2735. barbamz
Recon just shows on google earth: moving directon of the COC to the northeast.
Greetings from Germany to all!
2736. Drakoen
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I am near Bradfordville......Just rain all day and some power outages. But, beware of falling trees and branches and park your cars and boats accordingly.


I've found that the sewage/drainage system here in Tallahassee is terrible. It is easy for just afternoon thunderstorms to leave some places flooded.
2737. LargoFl
Quoting aquak9:


a bumpy ride
Hey, aquak.... nice 2 see u in the blog.... How did ur garden fare with Beryl?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
br>Makes it look like they blew it less than they did, lol.
Also keeps open the possibility of a shift back west.
You can't say they blew it until landfall. Starting to get annoyed how some people are so sure it will be one or another.
Drak,

I see a vortex message at 994mb north and just a tad east of previous. Is this the next message you are referring to below? (On Google Earth of course!)

Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like the next vortex message will be northeast of the previous.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW!!!!!!!!!


Lol funny how there is a warning From Florida to Louisiana but they manage to skip Mississippi.
The NHC isn't going to move the track forecast several hundred miles east based on one model suite. Doing that would, quite frankly, be unprofessional.
surprised to wake up here in naples and its still raining. sheese just on the edge need to get some yard work done. my 2 cents north edge of cone new orleans.
2744. ncstorm
TWC quote "it now looks like Debby will not be making it all the way to Texas."
2747. Drakoen
Quoting Goldenblack:
Drak,

I see a vortex message at 994mb north and just a tad east of previous. Is this the next message you are referring to below?



One northeast of the 994mb vortex message at 11:19z.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You can't say they blew it until landfall. Starting to get annoyed how some people are so sure it will be one or another.

That's why the second half of my comment is there... I meant that they always move it in small increments to make it look that way... Personally I still see a LA/TX track.
Quoting Drakoen:


I've found that the sewage/drainage system here in Tallahassee is terrible. It is easy for just afternoon thunderstorms to leave some places flooded.


You were not here when Allison came through a few years ago. A few entire neighborhoods had to be evacuated "by boat"......Police lined up johnboats to go in a get people out. In the middle of a newer city subdivision............ :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On long range radar, the leading edge of the rotation is slowly headed towards the West due South of Mobile. I cannot tell if that is actual motion of the COC or just expanding band coverage on the western flank.


No, the center is not moving NW at all in fact it isnt moving much at all. It looks like it the center is much further NE but it just E/ESE of Tampa. The tstorms are wrap up a it strengthen. All though it 60 mph it really looks disorganized. However it needs to be more organized if it wants to get up to Hurricane strength which is likely to happen as its barely moving and an anticyclone is aligning itself over the COC.
Quite right. Either way, I am sure they will make some shift back to the right at the 11EDT update, but make only slow modifications as the track verifies over the next 12 hours or longer..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC isn't going to move the track forecast several hundred miles east based on one model suite. Doing that would, quite frankly, be unprofessional.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
TWC quote "it now looks like Debby will not be making it all the way to Texas."


Jim Cantore now stating that it might come "this" way.
Thanks, that was exactly what I was looking to verify. Heading right towards you atm Drak.

Quoting Drakoen:


One northeast of the 994mb vortex message at 11:19z.
The BAMS models also has it dancing around in the GOM. And AVNO (GFS) continues to be the most consistent model and insist it will make landfall along the West Coast of FL. around the Big Bend area.

2756. nolajet
@Schistkicker, I seem to recall storms in the past moving south of us like that, I just can't recall any names off the top of my head. I can tell you it was in the last 30 years, but that's it. :P

I can see coastal flooding being a problem as it already can be, but this seems like an excellent test of our new pumping stations if we do get inundated with rain, and a great reminder to be prepared and clean storm drains. A lady was screaming at me earlier for being close to her Miata parked along side a completely clogged storm drain. I was about to clean it, but I'll respect her desire for no one to get near her car.

Wherever this goes, I just hope people stay safe. Also that people listen to official forecasts and prepare, not just read a few lines on a blog and think they have official answers.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's why the second half of my comment is there... I meant that they move it in small increments to make it look that way... Personally I still see a LA/TX track.
I saw you second part its does not add to the fact that your initial wording is quite rude to the NHC. I am sure you would never say that to one of the forecasters in person.
2758. icmoore
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Bay News 9 model still has Debby out in the middle of the GOM by Wed. doing a loop.



Animation


Whoa I sure hope that doen't pan out.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC isn't going to move the track forecast several hundred miles east based on one model suite. Doing that would, quite frankly, be unprofessional.

Your right, they did they same thing with Irene, I can see them slowly adjusting it North and East maybe closer to the TX/LA border. If the NHC was to just move the cone directly over FL panhandle that would hurt their credibility.
2760. centex
I think people are overeacting, the models are still not in agreement and if one model switches back we are back to square one. It's not going anywhere so they have time to flip few more times.
When it's raining, cause we're getting breaks, I'm getting like .50" in like 20 minutes. Very heavy tropical downpours, and not even close to the center. Flooding is gonna be a real issue for a lot of people..
2762. mfcmom
Well had one pup deliver last night and the other is in labor. Just sayin' a little levity this morning.
Here comes the anticyclone... Much favorable conditions then yesterday.

2764. barbamz
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
here's current conditions in Key West. the onlyu big rain we've received form the storm was Friday night about 7pm
Conditions
Pressure29.94 in Visibility10.0 miles CloudsMostly Cloudy 1700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2300 ft
Overcast 2800 ft

Moisture
Humidity91%Rainfall0.00 in
Heat Index89 °F Dew Point78 °F
Wind
Speed / Dir16 mph stronger gusts

Panama City is getting more action than us. here's a good webcam to watch the waves roll in

http://oaseasresorts.com/web-cam-panama-city-beac h.html
Quoting sporteguy03:

Your right, they did they same thing with Irene, I can see them slowly adjusting it North and East maybe closer to the TX/LA border. If the NHC was to just move the cone directly over FL panhandle that would hurt their credibility.
remember its weather no one can predict exactly and if the NHC has windshield wiper tracts people would not head the warnings. because of the uncertainty of this they had a very wide cone. good judgement on NHC imo
Even though we're probably not gonna get a lot of daytime heating because of the cloud cover. What we do get, I'm expecting to increase instability quite a bit here.
2768. Grothar
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Our long time poster, Ike, is from Defuniak but he stopped posting this year...........


I know, it was in tribute to him. I didn't realize anyone would remember that. (Do I have to end this with IMO?) How you doing wannabe?
Local Mets are saying possible she hangs around my neck of the woods for a day or two
come Tuesday and Wednesday they sound fairly confident of that so we will see i guess
Best for me if she hangs tight to the coast as she moves west if that happens dont want her to be 100 miles or so offshore of course that don't bold well for the folks N of me good luck everyone.

blsealevel
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You can't say they blew it until landfall. Starting to get annoyed how some people are so sure it will be one or another.
Definitely agree with this. Pple are screeching "IT'S HEADED NE!!!!!!!!" without mentioning.... at less than 3 miles an hour.... and telling TX to take back the tuna... when the TX landfall wasn't forecast to happen until, when... this time NEXT WEEK.....

I think we'd to a lot better to "hold our heads" as pple say locally, and invest our activities in a bit more observation.

IMO, both landfall scenarios still have a fair amount of merit, but while the ridge and the trough battle it out, it's pretty much a wait and see situation. Forecast certainty with Debby is pretty low.
...SRN FL NWWD ALONG THE NCNTRL GULF COAST...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY TRENDS
FOR T.S. DEBBY...EVEN IN THE SHORT-TERM. WIND FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED TC TORNADOES ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON TBW VWP AND EXPECT
THAT THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH AND WEST
WITH TIME. CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS WIDESPREAD TROPICAL RAINFALL
COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER WITH SOMEWHAT
MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITH LIGHTNING EMBEDDED WITHIN DISORGANIZED
FEEDER BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. PERSISTENT WEAK ROTATION
HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS TRACKING ABOUT 25NM OFF
THE FL WEST COAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF CELLS EXHIBITING
WEAK ROTATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER/RAIN LIKELY INHIBITING INLAND DESTABILIZATION...WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS WRN AND SRN FL WITH THIS
OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO EXTEND THOSE LOW PROBABILITIES WWD ALONG THE
NCNTRL GULF COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRONG
SHEAR TO SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY.
2772. dearmas
Getting tons of rain and light/mod winds here in Wesley Chapel FL

Are they sure Debbie is not coming to Florida??!!
2773. barbamz
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2774. dearmas
Quoting LargoFl:
..............hope that gfs run is wrong, thats way too close for comfort


Water pushing up into the mouth of Tampa Bay with this. your right not good!!!
Quoting PcolaSurf182:



Not here in Pensacola...yet. I'm sure it will be here by this afternoon though!


50 Miles N of PC BCH, 12 Miles S of the FL/AL Border Windy and mostly overcast but no rain yet today.
Cyclone Oz is on Pensacola Beach flying a TS warning flag. crazymother.tv
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDebby for 24June12pmGMT:
Its vector had changed from North at 5.8mph(9.3km/h) to NWest at 12.3mph(19.8km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from 45knots(52mph)83km/h to 50knots(80mph)93km/h
MinimumPressure had decreased from 998millibars to994millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Debby's path...
KHRT is MaryEsther,Florida :: ECP is PanamaCity,Florida :: 2J0is Wakulla,Florida

The SSWesternmost dot on the line-segments is where Invest96L became TropicalStormDebby
The SWesternmost dot on the longest line-segment is TS.Debby's most recent position

The longest line-segment is the straightline projection through TS/Debby's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
The ECP-dumbell is the endpoint of 24June12amGMT's straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
The KHRT-dumbell is the endpoint of 24June6amGMT's straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
On 24June12pmGMT, TS.Debby was heading toward passage over StMarksNationalWildlifeRefuge in ~15&1/2.hours from now

Copy&paste lch, mob, apf, ecp-30.202n85.854w, khrt-30.393n86.589w, 2jo, 26.0n87.6w-26.5n87.4w, 26.5n87.4w-27.0n87.3w, 27.0n87.3w-27.8n86.5w, 27.0n87.3w-30.084n84.115w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information

See the previous mapping for comparison.
There are some really violent cells headed for the west coast of Florida, I expect wind gusts 45 to 55 mph and excessive rainfall, there is also some decent lightning in there too.
Quoting nolajet:
@Schistkicker, I seem to recall storms in the past moving south of us like that, I just can't recall any names off the top of my head. I can tell you it was in the last 30 years, but that's it. :P

I can see coastal flooding being a problem as it already can be, but this seems like an excellent test of our new pumping stations if we do get inundated with rain, and a great reminder to be prepared and clean storm drains. A lady was screaming at me earlier for being close to her Miata parked along side a completely clogged storm drain. I was about to clean it, but I'll respect her desire for no one to get near her car.

Wherever this goes, I just hope people stay safe. Also that people listen to official forecasts and prepare, not just read a few lines on a blog and think they have official answers.
Agnes, in 72 had a track this same time of year, somewhat similar to Debby. She headed into the panhandle and continued north.
I see Debbie is sucking in dry air big time on the west side........surprised it hasn't been poof already for Deb.
BTW, There is no real "Debbie"....its a big weather system that is minimally cyclonic and there is a lot of action to the East because to the west is DRY air.
Until the big high over Texas/La breaks down ain't nothing coming near here......and my guess is whatever Debbie is heads east, although its less of a track than a monsoonal system that is evolving in that direction.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Other than a VERY slight move towards the north and maybe east, Debby's center position remains unchanged from where it was last night.


center, yes, but rain bands and TS force gusts and weather, no.

It was dry as a bone through 2 am in Tallahassee last night. We've had steady rain all day and there's heavier bands coming our way.

I know it's not subtropical, at all, but the way the bad weather is displaced from the CoC, it feels that way.

too much focus on the center, IMO.
Quoting mahep1911:
Hello all I live in Tallahassee florida and looks like we are in for a bumpy ride here any idea what we can expect


rain, rain, and more rain...

maybe some heavy gusts in some bands, but I doubt we'll ever see sustained TS winds, unless the thing tracks directly over the top of us. (which a few models are still showing, so not out of the question).

JMHO
Quoting nola70119:
Until the big high over Texas/La breaks down ain't nothing coming near here......



Supposedly a low is headed this way for tuesday....a deep one, also.
2786. mfcmom
Our local forecaster WJHG now has the track coming up just west of us in Panama City.