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Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Central Gulf of Mexico (96L) is close to tropical depression or tropical storm status, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph. Satellite-based surface wind measurements taken at 7:22 am EDT Saturday from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, showed a broad, elongated surface circulation over the Central Gulf of Mexico that was not well defined. The satellite saw top surface winds of 30 - 40 mph over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite loops show that the circulation of 96L has become more defined this morning, and the heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development and keeping the western side of 96L's circulation free of heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.


Figure 1. Saturday morning satellite image of tropical disturbance 96L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida from tropical disturbance 96L.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Sunday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday; NHC gave 96L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. The future path of 96L is still unclear. The disturbance will drift slowly northwards through Sunday night, which will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana to Central Florida. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is also likely along the Southeast Louisiana coast on Sunday; coastal flood advisories have already been posted there. By Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing 96L westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes, taking 96L northwards to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. Given that the majority of the models predict a westward track to Texas, that should be viewed as the most probable path for 96L, but this is a low-confidence forecast. None of the models is predicting 96L will become a hurricane, and the SHIPS model is predicting just a 4% chance of rapid intensification for 96L. Given the moderate levels of wind shear and dry air over the Gulf, only slow to modest intensification of 96L is likely over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. LargoFl
weather is getting bad down south of us............Special Marine Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ656-676-232100-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0175.120623T1932Z-120623T2100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT TO 60 NM

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TWO
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS. ONE LINE
WAS FROM 25 NM WEST OF BONITA BEACH TO 21 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
ROMANO...MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS...AND THE OTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WAS FROM 50 NM WEST OF BONITA BEACH TO 55 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE ROMANO
MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATER...MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HIGH SEAS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. MOVE
TO SAFE HARBOR OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. IF
CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER...MAKE SURE ALL SAFETY GEAR IS AVAILABLE AND
LIFE JACKETS ARE BEING WORN BY YOU AND YOUR CREW.

WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
SEAS. YOUR BEST COURSE OF EVASIVE ACTION IF THREATENED BY A
WATERSPOUT IS TO MOVE AT A 90 DEGREE ANGLE FROM ITS APPARENT
MOVEMENT. SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

&&

LAT...LON 2630 8183 2617 8181 2614 8178 2605 8179
2604 8174 2599 8171 2598 8165 2593 8162
2594 8159 2590 8157 2592 8156 2590 8146
2582 8136 2559 8197 2547 8263 2562 8269
2594 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 197DEG 12KT 2630 8230 2556 8187

$$
That upper level low is going to continue to shread this thing into pieces...
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


1476.


Already modified.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS takes Debby towards the northeast because it develops a second low pressure area off the coast of Georgia which helps amplify the trough across Canada and the Northeast, therefore pulling the system northeastward. None of the other models show this low, so the GFS should be discounted.

My thoughts too...

I said a west turn toward the TX/MX border 2 days ago...but that was before this regenerated northward below an upper divergence maximum at the boundary of the west Gulf ULL and adjacent upper ridging (Lee in 2011 generated below a similarly-setup divergence maximum). Now if I shift my thinking further north...this is a westward turn such that it tracks along and parallel to the south Louisiana shore. It'll be interesting to see how the NHC 5 PM track compares with this thought...can't wait...
1507. Mucinex
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 18:37:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°54'N 87°50'W (25.9N 87.8333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 313 miles (503 km) to the SSE (154°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 15kts (~ 17.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ENE (63°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 165° at 17kts (From the SSE at ~ 19.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 340m (1,115ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 338m (1,109ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 17kts (~ 19.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:11:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 26kts (~ 29.9mph) in the southwest quadrant at 18:52:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PEAK SFC WND 32KTS NW QUAD AT 17:08:20Z

Hmm...37.12mph. Not quite there yet. I'm surprised.
AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS,

welcome Debby!
1509. Patrap
Quoting cedarparktxguy:


Southeast Texas coast, so much for being a geek...


Upper Texas coast would actually be more accurate.
Quoting Mucinex:

Hmm...37.12mph. Not quite there yet. I'm surprised.


The flight never went into the convection...
1512. LargoFl
866
WFUS52 KMFL 231958
TORMFL
FLC021-232015-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0009.120623T1958Z-120623T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
358 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWEST COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...


* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NORTH
NAPLES...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
NORTH NAPLES...
QUAIL CREEK ESTATES...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR TAMIAMI TRAIL AND RATTLESNAKE ROAD.
The ridge is slowly nosing east as we speak.

Quoting Matt1989:
That upper level low is going to continue to shread this thing into pieces...


The ULL has slowed down, or stopped, since a few hours ago and not moving as much to the West at the moment....It is standing in the way or her continued progress for the time being.
1516. nigel20
Is it me or am i seeing two swirls?
387
WFUS52 KMFL 232000
TORMFL
FLC021-232030-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0010.120623T2000Z-120623T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FAKAHATCHEE
STRAND STATE PRESERVE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
Quoting seriousman1:
look for a hurricane watch to go up along the northern gulf coat from morgan city la to destin beach florida sometime tomorrow afternoon...this storm will be over very high sst and a strong cat 2 is possible with this scenario if debby stalls off the louisiana coast 24-36 hours before she moves inland...people should be taking precautions now..sunday evening we will be in squalls so get out while you can because conditions are just going to go downhill sunday evening....



Look...until that ULL moves out of the way...Debby will not strengthen. Too much shear. No need to overhype. Jeez!
1519. Patrap
AL 04 2012062318 BEST 0 26.0N 87,6W, 40 1001 TS
1520. LargoFl
Weather Channel needs to get off the noon time special trip, and get Greg Forbes on doing a severe weather analysis. It looks like marine warnings and tornado threats are on the rise.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


From what I've seen on the visible, Debby has been almost stalled all day, with maybe the slightest north movement. When she does begin to move after the ridge begins building in, it'll be slowly northwest and then more of west. I just don't see anything that'll cause an east or northeast movement.


Good points to back up your argument. I also think your a little to conservative on the intensity if it were to head west. Good job overall though.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


The ULL has slowed down, or stopped, since a few hours ago and not moving as much to the West at the moment....It is standing in the way or her continued progress for the time being.


Agreed. +1
i see peak winds of 44mph in the convection, as expected
Tornado watch may go up for S FL and C FL
Quoting nigel20:

2009 had a very slow start...i think with this early and pretty active start, we should surpass 2009.
Ana didn`t come until August 11 I think so we are ahead by almost a month and a half.

Quoting WxGeekVA:
And here's my revised track. I have favored a west track the whole time, but not too far southwest. I think the NE Texas coast and SW Louisiana are the areas that need to watch out, including Houston. A minimum Cat 1 isn't out of the question, but I think a 70MPH TS is a reasonable peak. I think the flooding after landfall will end up being what Debby gets remembered for.

I'm not sure I can agree with that solution, since the ridge that will becoming established over the Southern Plains should block any stairstepping move to the N or NNW. Either an outright stall in the Central Gulf or a push to the W or WSW is more likely...or. the system splits in two with the main energy going NE to ENE across Florida, and a secondary system forming out of the remnants and moving W or WSW into S TX or MX.

Only other scenario I can see is the Canadian one of Debby finding the weakness between the developing ridge and the trough just E of NOLA and sliding through it before the ridge establishes itself.

My totally unscientific prediction: TS Warnings from Morgan City/Intercoastal City, LA to Applachee Bay, FL initially; extended or redefined either way when Debby makes up her mind on where she's going.
Now that history has been made on the Atlantic canvas, ask the question ... how many wings does a butterfly have?

"Never before found such a plight ..."

106. OracleDeAtlantis 7:23 PM GMT on April 05, 2012
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
No offense to the science of meteorology, but a butterfly in China can be observed to fly circles around Dr. Gray and his team; and I hear the butterflies in China are choking on U.S.

For upon her wings are the eyes of the earth, seeing the unfolding of every birth.

From above the trees and beyond sky, to the state of confusion what it denies.

Never before found such a plight that befell them that are without sight.

Now see before you the industry of sin, and return by fury the fallacy of men.

so when debby forms will it be the earliest 4th named storm on record
1530. Patrap



woooooooooooooooooooooooo...'


Winddddddddddddddd'

Shearrrrrrrrrrrrrr'............
1531. Mucinex
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The flight never went into the convection...

Gotcha!
As that band continues to move north, the helicities will continue to rise with it.

1533. Patrap
Quoting windshear1993:
so when debby forms will it be the earliest 4th named storm on record


It has Formed,
Now penetrating the convection.
46 knots
(~ 52.9 mph)
1535. Patrap
19:58:30Z 25.083N 85.000W 962.6 mb

(~ 28.43 inHg) 398 meters
(~ 1,306 feet) - - From 200° at 51 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 58.6 mph) 21.9°C*
(~ 71.4°F*) -* 51 knots
(~ 58.6 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 39.0 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 76.5%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:49:00Z (first observation), the observation was 236 miles (380 km) to the W (277°) from Key West, FL, USA.

At 19:58:30Z (last observation), the observation was 205 miles (330 km) to the W (280°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Tampa Velocity radar is showing tropical storm force winds in the squalls offshore:
The light green color indicates Tropical Storm Force winds:

Link

Click on Base Velocity
Peak winds of 46 knots in the convection so far.
Flight level winds are at 60mph, so we might be talking about a 50mph TS at 5pm.
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 200° at 51 knots (From the SSW at ~ 58.6 mph)
1541. LargoFl
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Tampa Velocity radar is showing tropical storm force winds in the squalls offshore:
The light green color indicates Tropical Storm Force winds:

Link

Click on Base Velocity
Gale warnings all over the place out there
Doesn't it look like it's starting to go SW in the last frame or two? Or is that an illusion caused by the mid-level clouds?
Quoting nigel20:
Is it me or am i seeing two swirls?


you should be seing three
Debby is most likely NOT going to hit Mexico.. gosh..
Multiple tornado warning boxes near Naples headed towards Fort Meyers.

2.1 inch per hour squall going to come close to Fort Meyers and maybe Tampa later on. Maybe a near miss to the west though.


Severe weather threat is definitely increasing now.


Maybe hail storms, or maybe just torrential rains in these cells...

yikes.


J1 58 dBZ 28,000 ft. 42 kg/m² 10% chance 80% chance 0.50 in. 21 knots S (186)
1 C4 57 dBZ 30,000 ft. 37 kg/m² 0% chance 60% chance <0.50 in. 19 knots S (178)
2 V8 54 dBZ 22,000 ft. 30 kg/m² 0% chance 60% chance 0.50 in. 14 knots S (178)
1 X6 54 dBZ 20,000 ft. 22 kg/m² 0% chance 30% chance <0.50 in. 27 knots S (179)
1 U8 52 dBZ 20,000 ft. 19 kg/m² 0% chance 40% chance <0.50 in. 21 knots S (175)
1 R1 52 dBZ 22,000 ft. 20 kg/m² 0% chance 20% chance <0.50 in. 12 knots S (174)
2 F6 52 dBZ 18,000 ft. 15 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 21 knots S (173)
2 S4 51 dBZ 27,000 ft. 19 kg/m² 0% chance 30% chance <0.50 in. 23 knots SSW (201)
2 E1 50 dBZ 22,000 ft. 5 kg/m² 0% chance 20% chance <0.50 in. New Cell
1 V5 50 dBZ 18,000 ft. 14 kg/m² 0% chance 10% chance <0.50 in. 23 knots S (173)
so now its the earliest 4th named storm on record right??
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Peak winds of 46 knots in the convection so far.


I think the NHC will only give it 45
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Tornado watch may go up for S FL and C FL


Not S FL. We will not be affected by this system.
1549. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:



woooooooooooooooooooooooo...'


Winddddddddddddddd'

Shearrrrrrrrrrrrrr'............
when you view that in motion its like that swirl by texas is pushing debby eastward no?



This is Debby? LOL
If Debby is already a 50 mph storm and it looks like this, I'd hate to think what it could be without shear...and it will likely get that chance.
1552. LargoFl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not S FL. We will not be affected by this system.
there IS a tornado down by naples already..bad weather is coming up the coastline it seems
000
FXUS62 KMFL 231818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

BY LATE MONDAY, THE LATEST GFS STILL TAKES THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
LOW INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM/UKMET ALL TRACK IT
WEST, EVENTUALLY INTO TEXAS. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT A MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WHILE A STRONG TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
IF THIS VERIFIES, IT SEEMS MOST
PLAUSIBLE THAT THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW WOULD BE FORCED WEST.
THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN MUCH CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH MAINLY AFFECTS THE WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE SOLUTIONS WILL STILL BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
THE FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL BE DRIVEN BY JUST HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR
NORTHWEST. IF IT IS DELAYED, THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY MORE REALISTIC.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH POPS
SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE TROUGH
EXITS THE EAST COAST, CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
From Meteorologist Brooks Garner on WFLA-News Channel 8:

"Winds OF 60 mph found at 1,200' by the Hurricane Hunter C-130J very far east of the center. (A subtropical-tendency--) Warnings to follow?"
Two tornado warning in S FL now
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not S FL. We will not be affected by this system.
Quoting windshear1993:
so now its the earliest 4th named storm on record right??
Correct.
1557. nigel20
Quoting weatherh98:


you should be seing three

Hey weatherh98....where's the third one?
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Good points to back up your argument. I also think your a little to conservative on the intensity if it were to head west. Good job overall though.


With that ULL there it won't be able to make hurricane status for a while. And once it is gone, it might be too close to land to rapidly strengthen.

Quoting AnthonyJKenn:

I'm not sure I can agree with that solution, since the ridge that will becoming established over the Southern Plains should block any stairstepping move to the N or NNW. Either an outright stall in the Central Gulf or a push to the W or WSW is more likely...or. the system splits in two with the main energy going NE to ENE across Florida, and a secondary system forming out of the remnants and moving W or WSW into S TX or MX.

Only other scenario I can see is the Canadian one of Debby finding the weakness between the developing ridge and the trough just E of NOLA and sliding through it before the ridge establishes itself.

My totally unscientific prediction: TS Warnings from Morgan City/Intercoastal City, LA to Applachee Bay, FL initially; extended or redefined either way when Debby makes up her mind on where she's going.


The ridge should slide it west for a while, but then as the ridge slides to the northeast it should allow a weakness that will pull Debby slightly northward around the southwestern edge of the high.
1559. LargoFl
From HH dropsonde just now, under the eastern convection...

Time: 19:54:30Z
Coordinates: 25.0N 85.1667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 962.4 mb (~ 28.42 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 397 meters (~ 1,302 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 207° at 51 knots (From the SSW at ~ 58.6 mph)
Air Temp: 19.0°C* (~ 66.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 23 mm/hr (~ 0.91 in/hr)
1562. cg2916
Wow, I had loaded up the renumber page expecting that it'll be the giveaway to 04L. But there is no renumber... just an 04L page.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not S FL. We will not be affected by this system.


Don't forget there are two sides to SFL (E & W)
Oh no! Say it aint so. The weather channel just showed where their coverage is coming from and guess where the Cantore is? Live "near Pensacola". Go to doom status! LOL.
1565. Mucinex
TWC has dragged out Bryan Norcross. The real sign that it'll be official very soon.

Also, Cantore to Pensacola. Congrats Pensacola. Cantore is never within 40 miles of a landfalling storm.
Quoting LargoFl:
when you view that in motion its like that swirl by texas is pushing debby eastward no?


it isnt pushing debby its pushing her convection. you may very well get some of those too
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE
SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
53mph dropsonde splashed...
1569. LargoFl
Quoting weatherh98:


it isnt pushing debby its pushing her convection. you may very well get some of those too
yes later on its going to get bad here
1570. Bitmap7
The majority of debby's convection is under high shear and it aint budging.



She needs to move west to catch a break. She can't build convection on the west side either because of the dry air. The only hope is to rap around the convection and moisture from the east thats being sheared.
While the recon vortex message declared a TS, NHC did not officially declare on their site yet; I am wondering what they are going to declare at 5:00 given the deterioration........I stand corrected.

Are the Hunters still on site?
When is the TWC going to FL??
1573. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
FLC021-232030-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0010.120623T2000Z-120623T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FAKAHATCHEE
STRAND STATE PRESERVE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PICAYUNE STRAND STATE FOREST...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND EVERGLADES BLVD...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM
EXTERIOR WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

&&

LAT...LON 2618 8166 2624 8151 2626 8137 2608 8137
2597 8137 2594 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 164DEG 19KT 2606 8145
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
53mph dropsonde splashed.

Might be 53 mph already.



this is not good



this wait in tell that ull moves out of the way and wind shear really get low
Quoting tornadodude:



This is Debby? LOL

This is Allison? LOL



Don't underestimate it (which I'm sure you aren't, but still). It has plenty of time to strengthen over the Gulf, but even if it doesn't, it can find other ways to still be destructive, kind of like the storm I put above. :P
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Don't forget there are two sides to SFL (E & W)


It doesn't appear that SE South Florida (Miami - Jupiter) will be affected.

SW Florida may get a Tornado watch
1577. guygee
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Error cone is based on a standard they pick...they don't make it larger or smaller in times of uncertainty.

There is a standard radius they use for one..two...three...four...etc days out. They draw that radius for each of their best guess positions....then connect them to make the cone.

The cone may appear fatter or skinnier depending on if the forecast positions are smushed together (for a slow system) or are spread apart (fast moving system)....
Completely accurate observation, thank you. Just for emphasis, the standard is chosen based on average error of past forecasts as compared to the climatology model. The NHC method of representing uncertainty is not adjustable to the actual uncertainty, when, for example, reliable models consistently show divergent results, as is the case for this storm.

The actual forecasting uncertainty is unknown and may be greater or less than the average forecasting uncertainty that is shown by the NHC for any particular storm.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
While the recon vortex message declared a TS, NHC did not officially declare on their site yet; I am wondering what they are going to declare at 5:00 given the deterioration since the HH left the system.


What deterioration???
1579. jpsb
Quoting Patrap:



woooooooooooooooooooooooo...'


Winddddddddddddddd'

Shearrrrrrrrrrrrrr'............
That ULL is gonna rip Debby a new one.
Quoting Mucinex:
TWC has dragged out Bryan Norcross. The real sign that it'll be official very soon.

Also, Cantore to Pensacola. Congrats Pensacola. Cantore is never within 40 miles of a landfalling storm.


BS. He was right on top of Katrina and damn near lost his life in the storm surge trying to help other people vertically evacuate. It flooded the bottom floor of the hotel he was in.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes later on its going to get bad here


if it goes north and then southwest like it could, i may be in serious flooding. water is already up a couple of feet
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
53mph dropsonde splashed.

Might be 53 mph already.


I don't see 50 or 55 MPH yet. One reading does not mean that it's already that strong. 45 is my guess, but I may be conservative here.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
While the recon vortex message declared a TS, NHC did not officially declare on their site yet; I am wondering what they are going to declare at 5:00 given the deterioration since the HH left the system.

Deterioration?
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Oh no! Say it aint so. The weather channel just showed where their coverage is coming from and guess where the Cantore is? Live "near Pensacola". Go to doom status! LOL.

My husband and I were just joking about that, maybe 10 years ago, we would have been doomed... now he tries to go where there will be slight effects, but not a direct hit, he sends the youngins to the heavy stuff. I'm in Pcola
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 200° at 51 knots (From the SSW at ~ 58.6 mph)
If it has already that winds it can really have a shot of becoming a high-end cat 2 or low end cat 3 if that were to occur we will likely can talk about a possible retirement if it went to verify.
Quoting cyclonekid:
Correct.
wow i cant believe were beating 2005 in number of named storms so far lol
1587. LargoFl
Quoting weatherh98:


if it goes north and then southwest like it could, i may be in serious flooding. water is already up a couple of feet
...whew stay safe ok, before this is thru, alot of people are going to be in harms way,especially with flooding
1588. GPTGUY
Quoting RTSplayer:


BS. He was right on top of Katrina and damn near lost his life in the storm surge trying to help other people vertically evacuate. It flooded the bottom floor of the hotel he was in.


Not a hotel..Armed Forces Retirement Home
But if it go to FL we may get a Tornado watch
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


It doesn't appear that SE South Florida (Miami - Jupiter) will be affected.

SW Florida may get a Tornado watch
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I don't see 50 or 55 MPH yet. One reading does not mean that it's already that strong. 45 is my guess, but I may be conservative here.

It wasn't one reading.
With what we're seeing inundating southern Florida now may mean this is already a 50mph TS at least. All this moisture over central and eastern Florida going to coincide with the upper level low out there nearby to possibly form something too? The squall lines southwest of the tornado warned areas doesn't look nice either.
60mph contaminated readings.
SPC AC 231956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...SWRN FL AND THE KEYS...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION INVOF THE SWRN FL
COAST...WITH A BAND OF STORMS MOVING NWD OUT OF CUBA TOWARD/INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FL KEYS. WITH LATEST KEY WEST VWP DATA SHOWING SOME
LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR...AND CORRESPONDING/WEAK CIRCULATIONS WITHIN
A FEW OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WARRANTS INCLUSION OF A 2% TORNADO
PROBABILITY LINE THIS FORECAST.
It looks like crap right now. naked swirl void of any deep convection, definitely being sheared.
Quoting Bitmap7:
The majority of debby's convection is under high shear and it aint budging.



She needs to move west to catch a break. She can't build convection on the west side either because of the dry air. The only hope is to rap around the convection and moisture from the east thats being sheared.
Not because of dry. UUL is keeping her in check on the western side.
1596. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FLZ065-232100-
LEE-
409 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LEE COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR BONITA SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH...WILL AFFECT
LOVERS KEY STATE PARK...BONITA SPRINGS...ESTERO AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AIRPORT...UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

&&

LAT...LON 2642 8191 2644 8195 2647 8198 2647 8201
2645 8200 2645 8201 2672 8204 2673 8162
2642 8164 2641 8166 2634 8165 2632 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 170DEG 27KT 2639 8177
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I don't see 50 or 55 MPH yet. One reading does not mean that it's already that strong. 45 is my guess, but I may be conservative here.


you should work for the nhc then haha
Quoting AllStar17:


What deterioration???


Her Satt presentation (to my eyes) in the last several frames......here are TS force winds present but she has lost some of her earlier banding features. Just my opinion.
Estimated Surface Wind: From 200° at 45 knots (From the SSW at ~ 51.7 mph
1600. Mucinex
Quoting RTSplayer:


BS. He was right on top of Katrina and damn near lost his life in the storm surge trying to help other people vertically evacuate. It flooded the bottom floor of the hotel he was in.

Yes. The one time in a hundred storms. I'd be worried for Tampa/clearwater. That's were they are sending Mike Seidell. He's always in the soup, everytime.
Flight level winds are 50 knots
Quoting 1900hurricane:

This is Allison? LOL



Don't underestimate it (which I'm sure you aren't, but still). It has plenty of time to strengthen over the Gulf, but even if it doesn't, it can find other ways to still be destructive, kind of like the storm I put above. :P


haha Oh I agree, it may end up being bad, but it looks like a naked swirl right now. Things may change quickly tho
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
While the recon vortex message declared a TS, NHC did not officially declare on their site yet; I am wondering what they are going to declare at 5:00 given the deterioration........I stand corrected.

Are the Hunters still on site?


Yep, started their turn north going through the main area of deep convection... wondering if they will pick up any winds higher than 53 mph.
Quoting GPTGUY:


Not a hotel..Armed Forces Retirement Home


Ah. My memory is foggy, sorry.

Quoting weatherh98:

It wants the convection lol.
Quoting tornadodude:
It looks like crap right now. naked swirl void of any deep convection, definitely being sheared.

Here is the culprit:



1608. LargoFl
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
SUNDAY EVENING FROM DESTIN TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE...

...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES OF
WALTON...BAY...GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING THROUGH 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
EVENING...

.A TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS FORMED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAS LED TO WATER LEVEL RISE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION
TO ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL VALUES...HIGH SURF WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE
BEACHES LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL EROSION AND DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS...WHICH WILL BE LIFE THREATENING FOR ANYONE ENTERING
THE SURF.

FLZ115-240900-
/O.NEW.KTAE.CF.Y.0001.120623T2011Z-120625T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.SU.Y.0003.120624T0000Z-120626T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.RP.S.0015.000000T0000Z-120625T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
411 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY.

* SURF...BREAKERS 2 TO 4 FEET THIS EVENING BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY MIDNIGHT.

* COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND TWO FEET
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. OVERALL
STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCURRING NEAR ALLIGATOR
POINT.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS FRANKLIN COUNTY AROUND
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AROUND THE TIMES OF THESE HIGH
TIDES.

* IMPACTS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...IMPACTING LOW
LYING COASTAL ROADS. MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL EROSION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH SURF THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND
POSTED SIGNS. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. REMAIN CALM AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU
ARE AWAY FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO
THE BEACH. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT.
EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

&&

$$
1609. Drakoen
Here's a great link to compare the 500mb patterns among various models. As a test I chose the GFS and the UKMET to see the different 500mb spatial differences among opposing models. The trough on the GFS extends about 700km farther south than the UKMET and the ridge extends about 250km farther eastward on the UKMET than on the GFS.

HPC 500mb models
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Her Satt presentation (to my eyes) in the last several frames......here are TS force winds present but she has lost some of her earlier banding features. Just my opinion.


well it looks like banding has increased on IR
1611. yqt1001
So now that we have Debby, we have the long wait to landfall...

*yawn*

These monsoonal systems are so slow.

Would be funny if the TV stations set up shop in Florida just for Debby to move west at the last minute though.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Here is the culprit:



That is moving south out of Debbie's way right?
1613. GPTGUY
Quoting RTSplayer:


Ah. My memory is foggy, sorry.



No problem..but you are right they had to vertically evacuate 27 ft surge in that area..the AFRH was a total loss they imploded it and had to rebuild.
Models show that the upper level low currently shearing the storm should back southwest over the next day and an upper level anticyclone should form aloft, lowering wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico and helping Debby get convection going atop its center.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That is moving south out of Debbie's way right?


Yes, that is predicted to get out of Debby's hair.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It wants the convection lol.

Yea its trying
Maybe I have been glued to the loops for too long today......Gonna take a break and see what happens later on....... :)
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Here is the culprit:





That would do it. Nice looking naked swirl for now tho haha
It would also seem that the instant shear lessens, Debby will become significantly better organized. In other words, it won't take Debby a long time to organize once the shear lessens.
Quoting reedzone:
Debby is most likely NOT going to hit Mexico.. gosh..


Haven't really seen anyone saying that it would. South Central Texas is the most likely target.
Quoting Mucinex:

Yes. The one time in a hundred storms. I'd be worried for Tampa/clearwater. That's were they are sending Mike Seidell. He's always in the soup, everytime.

The way I look at it...they are placing them where their all already impacts. The east side of Debby has been lashing Florida with heavy rains...maybe some light gusty winds...and possible tornadoes...the impacts being worse the closer you are to the Gulf coast of Florida.
someone could not wait...
The center relly isnt being sheared but the convection is. make sense?
Here are some analogues for Debby in terms of track, not intensity:


T.S. One (1941)


T.S. One (1880)
Coincidentally formed on the 21st of June too...

Also

Hurricane 2 (1909)
57 knot flight level winds...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That is moving south out of Debbie's way right?

Affirmative, although it does not appear to be in much of a hurry.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
57 knot flight level winds...


Wow!
Quoting weatherh98:
The center relly isnt being sheared but the convection is. make sense?


The convection is being sheared away from the center
Quoting weatherh98:
The center relly isnt being sheared but the convection is. make sense?


What if the center redevelops under the convection?
Quoting AllStar17:
It would also seem that the instant shear lessens, Debby will become significantly better organized.

you could say that for most tropical systems.
Quoting tornadodude:
It looks like crap right now. naked swirl void of any deep convection, definitely being sheared.


Looke like your typical june ugly sheared TC. environment still looks hostile and looks to stay that way until the ull backs away. It does have potential to intensify if it tucks under the ridge and heads towards mex.
Recon has found peak flight-level winds of 57 knots.
anyone else having an internal server error when trying to view the radar?
Quoting tornadodude:


haha Oh I agree, it may end up being bad, but it looks like a naked swirl right now. Things may change quickly tho


You want to laugh at something? Laugh at this.



Debby is no laughing matter no matter it's current state. It's absolutely going to drench Florida, tornado watches also may need to be put up. It looks bad now, sure. But trust me, a frame by frame movement of a ULL is by no mean a movement. That ULL will be moving out of the picture and will actually be ventilating the system in the future. The models really want to spin Debby up and they all showed that it would be disorganized when classified. The ECMWF, CMC, UKMET to in some extent bring Debby either flirting or at hurricane status.
Quoting tornadodude:


The convection is being sheared away from the center


not really only 10 or so knots

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


What if the center redevelops under the convection?


it gets sheared ahhaha
Anyone interested in a good feed of crow, with saute onions and red wine reduction...Patrap maybe?? Until NHC says so...it isn't so.
Quoting hurricane23:


Looke like your typical june ugly sheared TC. environment still looks hostile and looks to stay that way until the ull backs away. It does have potential to intensify if it tucks under the ridge and heads towards mex.


Agreed. It has potential, but nothing pretty right now.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Here are some analogues for Debby in terms of track, not intensity:


T.S. One (1941)


T.S. One (1880)
Coincidentally formed on the 21st of June too...

This is pretty close to what I am currently thinking Debby will do track-wise...I agree with you WXGeekVA...
That LLC that came out of the convection looks to be weakening??
I THINK AT 5:00 PM WILL BE DEBBY, I CANT WAIT TO SEE THE CONE OF ERROR OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

GFS OR ECMWF?
FLORIDA OR TEXAS?

THIS IS GETTING GOOD!!!!!LOL
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Here are some analogues for Debby in terms of track, not intensity:


T.S. One (1941)


T.S. One (1880)
Coincidentally formed on the 21st of June too...
Good ones WXGVX.
1642. amd
Quoting weatherh98:
The center relly isnt being sheared but the convection is. make sense?


Sort of. The LLC looks well-structured, but there is definitely shear in the upper levels displacing the convection. In fact, it currently looks very similar to many early season gulf storms that has to deal with upper level westerly shear.

And, recon has found flight winds of 58 knots in the latest pass, with surface winds of about 40 knots.
65mph so Debby may be 55Mph??
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon has found peak flight-level winds of 57 knots.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon has found peak flight-level winds of 57 knots.


65 mph or so then surface would be roughly 55
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon has found peak flight-level winds of 57 knots.


Hm, I imagine there was some pretty high rain rates in that to. I imagine the NHC will go with 50mph at 5pm.

We'll know in 20 minutes.
Quoting Drakoen:
Here's a great link to compare the 500mb patterns among various models. As a test I chose the GFS and the UKMET to see the different 500mb spatial differences among opposing models. The trough on the GFS extends about 700km farther south than the UKMET and the ridge extends about 250km farther eastward on the UKMET than on the GFS.

HPC 500mb models
Hello,if I may ask what this all means? that you believe that the GFS solution is more probable than the UKMET?,I'm not a weather expert,but has being following hurricanes for more than 25 years,my gut feeling was always with the GFS eastern solution,I'm probably wrong,but looking at the whole picture in the Gulf of Mexico and the way this system wants to go East this is my 2 cents worth opinion.
1647. Levi32
Flight-level winds are punching it in the thunderstorms well east of the center:

that tornado warned cell east of naples just passed about 1 mile east of me. looked intense very low fast moving clouds and frequent lightning.
Uncontaminated surface winds of 49 knots.
As others have mentioned, close up of vis sat imagery from NASA site clearly shows the LLC has been comprised of 2 swirls rotating around each other for several hrs, drifting SSW by about a full degree latitude from earlier position this morn... Latest view or so suggests might be consolidating some and shifting EWD, still a rather large, elongated / distended LLC... and good grief, seen many sheared TC's with displaced convection, but this one is tough call in meeting criteria with heaviest convection (and perhaps it's greatest mid level vorticity) over 100 miles to the east of the sfc low! Little doubt the sfc low pressure and winds are strong enough, just if its organized enough vertically to call by this point...
Quoting floridaT:
that tornado warned cell east of naples just passed about 1 mile east of me. looked intense very low fast moving clouds and frequent lightning.
Thanks for reporting :) It's heading in my general direction
Quoting stormchaser19:
I THINK AT 5:00 PM WILL BE DEBBY, I CANT WAIT TO SEE THE CONE OF ERROR OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

GFS OR ECMWF?
FLORIDA OR TEXAS?

THIS IS GETTING GOOD!!!!!LOL


get it right. on this site its....

THE CONE OF DOOM, DEATH, and DISTRUCTION
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


What if the center redevelops under the convection?


Probably NOT going to happen at this point. The LLC at 26N 87.6W is too powerful and well developed now.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I'm debating whether or not the big slug of convection is going to continue with its momentum NE into west florida, or if it is going to wrap around the center and just scrape the coast for a couple hours... Any opinions on this west coasters?


Don't know if Im late on this or if it was already posted. Tornado warnings for 2 tornados in Collier County
1655. spathy
Quoting floridaT:
that tornado warned cell east of naples just passed about 1 mile east of me. looked intense very low fast moving clouds and frequent lightning.


Thanks youall for the heads up.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Uncontaminated surface winds of 49 knots.


.9"/hr rates with 43 knot flight level...

Suspicious
1657. gator23
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
someone could not wait...

UH THEY ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO DO THAT.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Uncontaminated surface winds of 49 knots.



that would put winds right a round 60mph
Alright lets not try to flood this blog with the first advisory post. One or two will do.
More tornado warnings in SWF but not a tornado watch box yet?
1661. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon has found peak flight-level winds of 57 knots.

Wow!
Local news (Ft. Myers channel 2)showing 2 separate tornado warnings.
1663. Drakoen
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello,if I may ask what this all means? that you believe that the GFS solution is more probable than the UKMET?,I'm not a weather expert,but has being following hurricanes for more than 25 years,my gut feeling was always with the GFS eastern solution,I'm probably wrong,but looking at the whole picture in the Gulf of Mexico and the way this system wants to go East this is my 2 cents worth opinion.


No, I don't think that the GFS solution is more probable than the UKMET. I'm pointing out the subtleties in the models that are making the difference in the tracks of Debby.
Whether Debby is pretty or ugly...it still has some nasty weather with it right now.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Thanks for reporting :) It's heading in my general direction
Yes,I called my friend in Estero, he told me the storm was extreme
If Debby is a 60mph storm all ready maybe Joe's whacky forecast may not be that off.
Public reporting tornado on the ground (Collier County Fl.)
t. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 143° at 60 knots (From the SE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Quoting masonsnana:
More tornado warnings in SWF but not a tornado watch box yet?


There was on the Tampa Nexrad Radar
1670. unf97
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

The way I look at it...they are placing them where their all already impacts. The east side of Debby has been lashing Florida with heavy rains...maybe some light gusty winds...and possible tornadoes...the impacts being worse the closer you are to the Gulf coast of Florida.


That's seemingly true. It seems Seidel always get the worst end of the stick in covering these storms. He was here in Jacksonville covering Beryl's landfall last month.

Cantore will be in Pensacola covering the system tomorrow.
good news is where that cell passes east of me very few people live out there
1672. Levi32
SFMR winds well above tropical storm force:

60-knot flight level winds!
Debby is a 60 to 65mph storm !!:)
I'm telling you heads up people in S. Fl and the keys the weather coming up the straits looks scary and it's been very calm wind wise in Miami, the quiet before the you no what sometimes.Anybody, Patrap want to post a loop.
The wind profile is almost subtropical in nature....

Note the key word ALMOST
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
60-knot flight level winds!




omg this is not good
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Public reporting tornado on the ground (Collier County Fl.)
OMG! Hope folks down there are heeding the warnings.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


There was on the Tampa Nexrad Radar
Ok ty :) I have the weather radio on and all I've heard were the warnings not the watches..
Quoting masonsnana:
More tornado warnings in SWF but not a tornado watch box yet?

There are now:

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image Loop - Key West, FL Radar

Be careful out there.
Quoting unf97:


That's seemingly true. It seems Seidel always get the worst end of the stick in covering these storms. He was here in Jacksonville covering Beryl's landfall last month.

Cantore will be in Pensacola covering the system tomorrow.


Well we now know that Pensacola is 100% safe from Debby cause Cantore is the storm shield
Quoting Drakoen:


No, I don't think that the GFS solution is more probable than the UKMET. I'm pointing out the subtleties in the models that are making the difference in the tracks of Debby.
Thank you!!
I think the NHC made the decision to go through this thunderstormds just to see now
Just heard on twc that the flight level picked up on 69mph winds
Quoting weatherh98:


65 mph or so then surface would be roughly 55


As a rule, Dr. Steve Lyons used to say that flight level in Knots was roughly equal to MPH at the surface, so yeah.

57knts flight level ~= 57mph surface winds.

But that could have been a local thunderstorm, so that doesn't necessarily mean they'll make that the official wind speed.
Debby is much stronger than I thought it would be at this point.
I think it is spliting in two, just like the GFS predicted.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
The wind profile is almost subtropical in nature....

Note the key word ALMOST


yes but it isnt because it has thse thunderstorms. but if it didnt it would be subtropical
That feeder band that contained those tornados only goes inland like 20 miles and then its spotty thunderstorms,but along the coast its all hell breaking lose from the keys to tampa
Quoting DocNDswamp:
As others have mentioned, close up of vis sat imagery from NASA site clearly shows the LLC has been comprised of 2 swirls rotating around each other for several hrs, drifting SSW by about a full degree latitude from earlier position this morn... Latest view or so suggests might be consolidating some and shifting EWD, still a rather large, elongated / distended LLC... and good grief, seen many sheared TC's with displaced convection, but this one is tough call in meeting criteria with heaviest convection (and perhaps it's greatest mid level vorticity) over 100 miles to the east of the sfc low! Little doubt the sfc low pressure and winds are strong enough, just if its organized enough vertically to call by this point...


Very well said. I agree. It looks pathetic right now. Naked swirl void of any deep convection. I would see maybe a 40 or 45mph Tropical Storm, with a track to the North Texas Coast.
man this thing is all most hurricane
bad news is if that warned cell holds together till immokalee lots of folks there live in trailers
lol ya
Quoting weatherh98:
I think the NHC made the decision to go through this thunderstormds just to see now
NHC might withhold the advisory until a little later if we're dealing with 70mph flight level winds.
Quoting LightningCharmer:

There are now:

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image Loop - Key West, FL Radar

Be careful out there.
TY
Tropical Storm watches are about to be issued
Quoting WxGeekVA:
The wind profile is almost subtropical in nature....

Note the key word ALMOST


Satellite images tell us it is a very lopsided system which is common in a subtropical system. I think we'll see more development on the western side of the storm during the next 24-48 hours.
Quoting washingaway:
I think it is spliting in two, just like the GFS predicted.


It is not splitting in 2.
1699. guygee
Can we remember the names of past sheared GOM tropical storms that moved mostly by center relocation?
Watch as they're only going to classify it as 45 mph and this blog's going to be disappointed.
Quoting RTSplayer:


As a rule, Dr. Steve Lyons used to say that flight level in Knots was roughly equal to MPH at the surface, so yeah.

57knts flight level ~= 57mph surface winds.

But that could have been a local thunderstorm, so that doesn't necessarily mean they'll make that the official wind speed.


yes i know it could be localized but they are finding higher winds too
Debby could be a 50-60mph TS
1703. wpb
navy still got 96l
Still 96L
1705. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
419 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FLC021-232030-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120623T2030Z/
COLLIER FL-
419 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
COLLIER COUNTY...

AT 417 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
RURAL CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP ANYTIME. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

LAT...LON 2622 8148 2624 8146 2626 8137 2608 8137
2608 8138 2609 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 185DEG 19KT 2614 8142

$$

BAXTER
You can see the two isolated cells that produced the tornado warnings and public sightings of tornadoes.

this think when shear drops too all most 0 this thing will really take off
Quoting luvtogolf:


Satellite images tell us it is a very lopsided system which is common in a subtropical system. I think we'll see more development on the western side of the storm during the next 24-48 hours.
Debby isn't subtropical at all.
Quoting mobileshadow:
Tropical Storm watches are about to be issued


maybe even warnings for aplachicola area they have a band about to move through
Quoting wpb:
navy still got 96l



its not 96L
Quoting Altestic2012:
Still 96L



its not 96L
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
That feeder band that contained those tornados only goes inland like 20 miles and then its spotty thunderstorms,but along the coast its all hell breaking lose from the keys to tampa
Hell must not be all that bad because I've only had spotty raindrops falling and calm wind for the past 3 hours here north of Tampa.
Quoting Tazmanian:
this think when shear drops too all most 0 this thing will really take off


dare i say... ROCKET FUEL
Quoting floridaT:
good news is where that cell passes east of me very few people live out there


There were 2 and one looked to be east of east naples and the othwer was by U.S. 41 and Rattlesnake something
New tornado warning until 5:15 pm for Collier county Fl.
Quoting weatherh98:


get it right. on this site its....

THE CONE OF DOOM, DEATH, and DISTRUCTION


OK,BRO
Debby will also continue the string of storms this year that have skipped right to TS status.
1720. nigel20
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Debby could be a 50-60mph TS

Agreed.
It's Debby.
AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS

Quoting wpb:
navy still got 96l


the weather channel doesnt
1723. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
FLC021-051-232115-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0012.120623T2027Z-120623T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
427 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
EAST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 426 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MILE MARKER 60 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MILE MARKER 60 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION...
HENDRY CORRECTIONAL I/A/P...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY
OVERPASS. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...
IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A
TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR COULD DEVELOP ANYTIME.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

&&

LAT...LON 2641 8126 2640 8092 2605 8105 2605 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 180DEG 18KT 2610 8111

$$

BAXTER
look for hurricane watchs too go up
Quoting CybrTeddy:
It's Debby.
AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS


Only 45 mph.

Prepare the NHC bashing, in T-minus 3...2...1...

Two Tornado boxes. Please watch the sky and take necessary precautions.
Quoting stormchaser19:


OK,BRO


hahhha welcome havent seen you post here yet but hey thats okay
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
someone could not wait...
I don't understand how they have that information.
Wow
I can smell that crow now....hmmm...good.
Thanks, Lightingcharmer
Seems Debby (Debbie?) whats to make a run to hurricane status this year.Unlike 6 years ago when she was a week storm off north of Africa.
Quoting Altestic2012:

Only 45 mph.

Prepare the NHC bashing, in T-minus 3...2...1...




but with recon info they are going too likey bump this too 50 too 60 mph
Quoting Tazmanian:
look for hurricane watchs too go up


yes and tropical storm warning
the track anywhere fron NE mexico to SW florida
1736. Patrap
20:28:30Z 26.983N 85.000W 963.5 mb

(~ 28.45 inHg) 392 meters
(~ 1,286 feet) - - From 145° at 49 knots
(From the SE at ~ 56.3 mph) 19.7°C*
(~ 67.5°F*) -* 51 knots
(~ 58.6 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 9 mm/hr
(~ 0.35 in/hr) 31.7 knots (~ 36.5 mph)
64.7%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor


HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 20:19:00Z (first observation), the observation was 191 miles (307 km) to the SW (235°) from Tampa, FL, USA.

At 20:28:30Z (last observation), the observation was 170 miles (273 km) to the WSW (246°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Quoting Altestic2012:

Only 45 mph.

Prepare the NHC bashing, in T-minus 3...2...1...


It's been Debby for a while. Please check back a few pages.

These wind readings are coming in after the renumber.
Quoting cyclonekid:
I don't understand how they have that information.
\

ATCF file
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
the track anywhere fron NE mexico to SW florida
That sounds like a very small cone...
that warned cell now is approaching ava maria and immokalee fairly well populated
It's F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5 TIME!!!
Quoting cyclonekid:
I don't understand how they have that information.

NHC updates all media before the advisory.
Quoting weatherh98:
\

ATCF file
It's possible, but it doesn't give the direction or speed of movement.
Reports of tornado damage by news crews in Naples Fl.
1747. cg2916
Navy still has 96L because although there is an 04L file, there was no renumber.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Hell must not be all that bad because I've only had spotty raindrops falling and calm wind for the past 3 hours here north of Tampa.


Yes,I pretty much shuts off north of Tampaand the feeder band goes back west toward the center.
Time: 20:20:30Z
Coordinates: 26.4833N 85.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 963.0 mb (~ 28.44 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 381 meters (~ 1,250 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 143° at 60 knots (From the SE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 20.4°C* (~ 68.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

NHC updates all media before the advisory.


I missed the NHC conf call cause one of our stations went off the air :(


And whoever is hot linking images from Levi's site it's messing up the blog
1752. Patrap
Still Brisk out at the Plane 27N 85W
1753. WxLogic
Good evening... Looks like the HH have found quite a bit of TS force winds.
guys for get the
ATCF file for right now we may have a 50 too 60mph TS on are hands
TWC are anxious for them to name this.They've been talking about it all afternoon(like they should).The title is called "tracking tropical storms".They all ready likely know this us a tropical storm.Just don't want to confuse viewers yet.
Quoting cyclonekid:
I don't understand how they have that information.


ATCF , look it up
1757. Walshy
If Debby gets retired, I say we replace it with Debra.

Too early?
1758. LargoFl
LOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
407 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FLC089-GAC049-232200-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.Y.0044.120623T2007Z-120623T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CHARLTON GA-NASSAU FL-
407 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
WESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 405 PM EDT WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NASSAU COUNTY TO NEAR ST GEORGE AND
DRIFTING NORTHWEST. THERE HAVE BEEN DOPPLER ESTIMATES OF 1 TO
INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
1759. Patrap
Time: 20:20:30Z
Coordinates: 26.4833N 85.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 963.0 mb (~ 28.44 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 381 meters (~ 1,250 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 143° at 60 knots (From the SE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 20.4°C* (~ 68.7°F*)


Note that fer sure sp.
Quoting weatherh98:


get it right. on this site its....

THE CONE OF DOOM, DEATH, and DISTRUCTION


DESTRUCTION
The model maps are updated to reflect Debby even though NHC isn't showing it yet...



Quoting Patrap:
Time: 20:20:30Z
Coordinates: 26.4833N 85.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 963.0 mb (~ 28.44 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 381 meters (~ 1,250 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 143° at 60 knots (From the SE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 20.4°C* (~ 68.7°F*)


Note that fer sure sp.
TWC did
1763. Patrap
20:15 Rainbow

Did that circulation west of the convection dissipate?
Quoting WxGeekVA:
It's F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5F5 TIME!!!


just click on the NHC logo on the website...easier
Expect the advisory within the next 7 minutes.
1767. Patrap
I'm sure some phones are ringing.
All in S FL Rain is coming now!!:)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


ATCF , look it up
Please look at comment 1745. Thank you.
Quoting cyclonekid:
It's possible, but it doesn't give the direction or speed of movement.


because it was only part of it
Recon find anything more intense than 40kt winds?
I saw a flash on the screen for TWC that said Debby has formed about 20 minutes ago
Possible T.S. Watches at 5 me thinks
1774. Gorty
It looks so bad. I can't believe that she has at least 50 mph winds...
just got done with a round trip Sarasota to Naples and back to pick up daughter for summer break. Rain the whole way, both ways. Nothing heavy, just steady.
CROW
1777. Patrap
Mobile Long Range Radar



Quoting tornadodude:
Anticyclonic???
Quoting cyclonekid:
Please look at comment 1745. Thank you.


excuse me... he or she asked ME! thank you very much
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon find anything more intense than 40kt winds?


Yes...they even found 60 kt flight level.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Expect the advisory within the next 7 minutes.


6.34 actually
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon find anything more intense than 40kt winds?



yes they have fould 61kt fight level winds and a lot of 50kt winds
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


excuse me... he or she asked ME! thank you very much
Why are you upset? I've got a valid point. Chill. :-)
The next 15 hours or so, particularly over night, is going to suck in the keys and lower mainland Florida.

There are quite a few more severe thunderstorms headed north in the squall, and possibly tornadic potential, as they are isolated enough.

For probably the next 12 to 18, the isolated tornadoes are going to be the biggest threat on land.
1785. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 20:26Z

Date: June 23, 2012

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 30


20:38:30Z 27.583N 85.000W 962.9 mb

(~ 28.43 inHg) 409 meters
(~ 1,342 feet) - - From 117° at 42 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 48.3 mph) 19.9°C*
(~ 67.8°F*) -* 44 knots
(~ 50.6 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 27.7 knots (~ 31.8 mph)
65.9%

Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 20:29:00Z (first observation), the observation was 169 miles (272 km) to the WSW (247°) from Tampa, FL, USA.

At 20:38:30Z (last observation), the observation was 157 miles (253 km) to the W (260°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon find anything more intense than 40kt winds?


yes
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


excuse me... he or she asked ME! thank you very much

Does it matter how he/she asked? We're on a community forum, so anybody can answer. Chill.
Advisory might be held back a while guys, remember TS warnings have to go out, and now new data is coming in showing 70mph flight level winds, that translates to 60mph on the surface easily.
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes they have fould 61kt fight level winds and a lot of 50kt winds
In that case the 5p.m advisory should have 50kt sustained winds. If they don't, I'm sure the discussion will explain it.
1790. icmoore
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
That feeder band that contained those tornados only goes inland like 20 miles and then its spotty thunderstorms,but along the coast its all hell breaking lose from the keys to tampa


Not sure I like hearing that but we all need to keep our heads up!
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys for get the
ATCF file for right now we may have a 50 too 60mph TS on are hands


I agree, but I don't think a relatively small area of high winds reported from the plane will make the NHC initiate advisories at any higher than 45mph. If the plane finds any more winds that high, we'll probably get the next full advisory at 8:00pm EDT to up the winds.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Yes,I pretty much shuts off north of Tampaand the feeder band goes back west toward the center.


.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Advisory might be held back a while guys, remember TS warnings have to go out, and now new data is coming in showing 70mph flight level winds, that translates to 60mph on the surface easily.


Watches and warnings were issued 20 mins ago
Quoting Tazmanian:
this think when shear drops too all most 0 this thing will really take off


It is a very large system and it has all the fuel in the world. I agree once this becomes stacked. It's only a ULAC over it away from a rapid intensification process.
1795. rxse7en
Quoting tornadodude:
Classic hook.
Quoting wakd3Xn04:
just got done with a round trip Sarasota to Naples and back to pick up daughter for summer break. Rain the whole way, both ways. Nothing heavy, just steady.


Heavy weather is just moving into S.W. Fl. Gentle rain all day in Fort Myers but now lot of thunder with strong storms in the area.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I agree, but I don't think a relatively small area of high winds reported from the plane will make the NHC initiate advisories at any higher than 45mph. If the plane finds any more winds that high, we'll probably get the next full advisory at 8:00pm EDT to up the winds.


Actually, from what I'm seeing it's in a pretty large area and approaching the Florida coast too.
1799. LargoFl
I agree. And the call on the track won't be easy.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Advisory might be held back a while guys, remember TS warnings have to go out, and now new data is coming in showing 70mph flight level winds, that translates to 60mph on the surface easily.
Based on all the posts it looks like Debby has formed!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually, from what I'm seeing it's in a pretty large area and approaching the Florida coast too.


Yeah, my google earth recon data just updated, and it does appear to be a larger area. Likely more winds in that range throughout the heavy convection.
1803. Cat5hit
Are you sure there isn't a southern model solution. We every other compass direction covered.
1804. Gorty
Anyone want to explain how she has 40 to 50 mph winds given how bad she looks?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW!!,wondering if all that bad weather in the Keys will reach Miami Dade County?? it looks that is moving North.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Does it matter how he/she asked? We're on a community forum, so anybody can answer. Chill.


who ever it was thought i was stupid... that's why. don't take it personally

by the way advisory is out

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Maybe they are having second thoughts.
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC SAT JUN 23 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 87.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
530
WTNT24 KNHC 232051
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC SAT JUN 23 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 87.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
ROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC SAT JUN 23 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 87.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
4:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 23
Location: 26.2°N 87.6°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
(NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDebby as of 23June6pmGMT

The Southernmost dot is where Invest96L was initiated as a DisturBance
The Northernmost dot is where Invest96L became TropicalStormDebby
The other dots are where Invest96L was a closedLOw
Copy&paste bro, mob, eyw, 20.0n90.2w- 20.5n90.0w- 20.9n89.9w- 21.3n89.5w- 21.7n89.0w, 21.7n89.0w-22.0n88.7w, 22.0n88.7w-22.3n88.4w, 22.3n88.4w-22.6n88.1w- 22.9n87.9w- 23.3n87.9w- 24.4n87.8w- 25.4n87.6w, 25.4n87.6w-26.0n87.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information

ATCF data for PostTropicalStormChris as of 23June6pmGMT. Posting this because:
NHC is still interested in keeping track of Chris, or they would have Deactivated the Invest(igation)
Chris is very near the spot of the AzoresLow that the prediction models kept showing through last week
Chris has completed a loop, in the process passing ~18miles(29kilometres) of the position at which Chris was at its strongest

The Westernmost dot is where Invest95L became TropicalStormChris.
The dot to the east on that kinked line is where TS.Chris became HurricaneChris.
(At the positions 6hours in either direction, Chris was a TropicalStorm)
The dot to the northwest is Chris's final*position as a TropicalStorm.
The kinked line completing the loop is PTS.Chris's path.
And the Easternmost dot is PTS.Chris's most recent position
Copy&paste yyt, cvu, 39.5n58.0w- 38.9n56.7w- 38.3n54.7w- 38.1n52.3w- 38.2n50.2w- 38.6n47.5w- 39.4n45.6w- 40.5n43.9w, 40.5n43.9w- 41.9n42.9w- 43.3n42.8w- 44.4n43.7w, 44.4n43.7w- 44.8n45.5w- 44.1n48.0w- 42.3n48.5w- 41.0n47.6w- 40.0n45.0w- 40.5n42.5w, 40.5n43.9w-40.245n43.813w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.

* For those who keep grousing that the NHC is jacking up the numbers, the northernmost (undotted) point on the loop at 44.8n45.5w was originally listed as a TropicalStorm, then re-evaluated and downgraded to a PostTropicalStorm. ie The total of Chris's TropicalCyclone-energy number had to be re-evaluated downward due to that change.
Debby on the NHC site! 50mph winds!
50
debby is a 50 mph storm as of the NHC
1818. nigel20
000
WTNT34 KNHC 232051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM DEBBY.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1001
MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
TWC announced 50 MPH tropical storm Debbie
1820. Walshy
123knots

Storm track is out on TWC - NHC shows it going to Texas with the cone.
1822. Cat5hit
What.... Only three posts of it?
50mph it is. Let's see what the discussion says
Forecast advisory has it a 60kts towards the end of the forecasting period, very possible it could become a hurricane.
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
1828. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 20:26Z

Date: June 23, 2012

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 31


20:48:30Z 28.150N 85.000W 962.9 mb

(~ 28.43 inHg) 421 meters
(~ 1,381 feet) - - From 127° at 40 knots
(From the SE at ~ 46.0 mph) 21.3°C*
(~ 70.3°F*) -* 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 24.8 knots (~ 28.5 mph)
61.9%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 20:39:00Z (first observation), the observation was 157 miles (253 km) to the W (261°) from Tampa, FL, USA.

At 20:48:30Z (last observation), the observation was 146 miles (234 km) to the SSE (164°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
EXTREMLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...AND DEBBY SHOULD BE A BLACK HOLE BY SUNDAY.

;) (joke)...
David Thomas the Tazzmanian Troll where are the Hurricane Watches ?
00
WTNT44 KNHC 232052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
50mph i see
1833. rxse7en
Quoting LargoFl:
LOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
407 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FLC089-GAC049-232200-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.Y.0044.120623T2007Z-120623T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CHARLTON GA-NASSAU FL-
407 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
WESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 405 PM EDT WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NASSAU COUNTY TO NEAR ST GEORGE AND
DRIFTING NORTHWEST. THERE HAVE BEEN DOPPLER ESTIMATES OF 1 TO
INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Ugh. We just dried out from Beryl.
Wow, NHC expecting Debby to come very close to Hurricane strength (70 mph.)
got it at 70 mph landfall in texas!
A very uncertain track cone for sure..
1837. Patrap
Tropical Storm DEBBY NESDIS Satellite Floater | Storm Archive
...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
4:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 23
Location: 26.2°N 87.6°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
70 mph storm approaching Texas on Wednesday to Thursday. "But take with a grain of salt" Storm could be much stronger.
1841. GetReal
Quoting Gorty:
Anyone want to explain how she has 40 to 50 mph winds given how bad she looks?


Pressure gradiant caused by the high over the Ohio valley.
i been waiting too see this part



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
Quoting Articuno:
Mamma Mia, that'sa big D.O.C!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

same post,
same time?
with that fast moving line approaching the keys im surprised they havnt issued a tornado watch for all of south fl
1846. Patrap
000
WTNT34 KNHC 232051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM DEBBY.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1001
MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
Focus on this line.
DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
1848. icmoore
Quoting Tazmanian:
i been waiting too see this part



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER


Me, too...
I don't know...that peak intensity may be a bit too low.
WOW! NHC discounting GFS...interesting...

NHC


ME

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

4:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 23
Location: 26.2°N 87.6°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Hell must not be all that bad because I've only had spotty raindrops falling and calm wind for the past 3 hours here north of Tampa.


I'm in Tampa (Town N Country) and I have not had anything more than a 30-40 second very light mist. Its been cloudy all day but no actual rain. I dont know where this "hell is breaking loose" but, it ain't anywhere around Tampa (my area of Tampa anyway).
It all depends on shear and vertical instability.
1855. bappit
Quoting RTSplayer:



The radius of each circle, and hence the cone, is based on a 66% probability and not a set width.

Which means that the forecast cone means there will be a 66% probability that the storm will be inside that cone, and of course, a 33% probability that the storm will be outside the cone.

That's how I understand it, too. And indeed from the NHC website:

"To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles."
Quoting Littleninjagrl:


I'm in Tampa (Town N Country) and I have not had anything more than a 30-40 second very light mist. Its been cloudy all day but no actual rain. Its thundering now but nada. I dont know where this "hell" is breaking loose but, it ain't anywhere around Tampa (my area of Tampa).


please stop injecting your silly reality into everyone else's serious fantasy
With moderate to low shear, over the warm waters of the GOM, I just can't see there only being 20 mph of intensification over the next 5 days. I'd probably be more suprised if we don't see Hurricane Debby.
1858. LargoFl
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
70 mph storm approaching Texas on Wednesday to Thursday. "But take with a grain of salt" Storm could be much stronger.
it sure could,dont get there till thursday, sitting on that mid 80's water..whew,texas you wanted it..you got it..hope the rains help you with your drought
Also the track.. Levi is going to be thrilled. Guess he was right all along.
70 mph peak on first advisory written by Avila and Berg? Wow, what's Stewart going to show?
1861. nigel20
Quoting WxGeekVA:

NHC


ME


Your track forecast is very similar to that of the NHC...
Mamma Mia, That'sa big Cone Of Doom!
Quoting stormchaser19:
Quoting WxGeekVA:

NHC


ME



WATCH IT TOMORROW HEADING TOWARDS FL
good job wxgeek
1865. NESTORM
West it is for now?
Slow track; if that ULL backs off and an anticyclone develops aloft, things may get real nasty.
Quoting WxGeekVA:

NHC


ME


Your path is logical :)
IMO, good forecast both track and intensity wise by the NHC... Maybe a tad conservative on intensity but that's probably the right thing for them to do.
1869. WxLogic
Well... now that we have Debby we'll see what she'll do. Still keeping options open but NHC knows best.
1870. LargoFl
Quoting hurricanejunky:
WOW! NHC discounting GFS...interesting...
until tomorrow when they do again, then monday they wont
Quoting Cat5hit:
What.... Only three posts of it?
Lol
Never have understood why people post the NHC updates when you can just go to the site...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
70 mph peak on first advisory written by Avila and Berg? Wow, what's Stewart going to show?
Cat. 4 overnight.
1873. Walshy
GFS TO RETIRE...
1874. Cat5hit
Quoting floridaT:
with that fast moving line approaching the keys im surprised they havnt issued a tornado watch for all of south fl


Is their a hooker echo on doppler?
1875. DocBen
Hurricane Debby by DMAX Monday morning.
Well, this is going to be interesting. I agree with the NHC's forecast track, but I think their intensity forecast is a bit low.
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL
Levi called it first though 2 days ago, props to him from me!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
70 mph peak on first advisory written by Avila and Berg? Wow, what's Stewart going to show?


Gotta love the conservative mets...
Quoting WxGeekVA:

NHC


ME



LOL... I thought the westcasters were off. Guess I'll eat some crow.
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL
D.
DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.
1883. Patrap
Seems da crows be safe fer now.

; )
I'm still against Debby touching Mexico.. It just doesn't seem right... If she does head west as forecast, Northern Texas.
Quoting presslord:


please stop injecting your silly reality into everyone else's serious fantasy


LOL!!!
that offshore cell just east of naples looks like ft myers may get tornado warned
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Cat. 4 overnight.





why cat 4 overe night what make it more fun and make it a cat 5 overe night ok?
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL


90 knot hurricane is what I am thinking so D.
1889. pottery
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL

F _ Certain DOOM
1890. nigel20
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL

C.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 232052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
1892. guygee
Six posts of the bulletin with one withdrawn now blank. That's the spirit! We're on a roll now!
(Edit: Joking reference to earlier post on the lack of redundant TWO posts *sigh* I'm out)
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL

C
Quoting reedzone:
Also the track.. Levi is going to be thrilled. Guess he was right all along.


It's not over yet.... I can see the GFS scenario occuring too... Drak's not out of the woods yet.
1895. pottery
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.

We are ahead of 2005 ?
I wonder what that means.
1896. DocBen
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL


Cat 1
1897. THL3
Just a lurker but I can tell its time to warm up the IGNORE button......
1898. nigel20
Quoting pottery:

F _ Certain DOOM

Hey pottery...what's is the weather like in Trinidad today?
1899. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

Check the FRONTS, Lat/Lon/, MSLP Boxes
ZOOM and skew active
1900. Patrap
Quoting pottery:

We are ahead of 2005 ?
I wonder what that means.


Somewhere a Mayan Stone Carver is laughing?
North Central FL, north of Ocala area, west of St. Auggie we are cloudy but dry so far. However just north of us spotty thunderstorms looks like a line across FL pushing N. Extreme outer band or front?

So far so good, but local wild animal population a bit nervy. Not so much bird activity as usual, lizards are hiding, also weather doggies are alert.
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL

D.
Quoting Patrap:
I'm sure some phones are ringing.


From Trinty in Florida?
Quoting Jebekarue:
I saw a flash on the screen for TWC that said Debby has formed about 20 minutes ago



Yes,Norcross announced it right before 5pm Eastern time
Quoting pottery:

We are ahead of 2005 ?
I wonder what that means.
. This will be the last storm of the season.
1906. pottery
Quoting nigel20:

Hey pottery...what's is the weather like in Trinidad today?

Has not stopped raining since yesterday afternoon.
It's great !

sigh....
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL

D for doomcast.
lol
jk
But really
D
Quoting pottery:

We are ahead of 2005 ?
I wonder what that means.

Active hurricane season!
Quoting tropicfreak:


It's not over yet.... I can see the GFS scenario occuring too... Drak's not out of the woods yet.
hmm??? You know what I think the GFS is showing the convection that has blown away from the center affecting FL. while the center moves away and slowly but surely builds convection around it.
I personally see debby becoming a hurricane

OFF TOPIC ALERT

Tornado in S Dakota Yesterday:
Video SD Tornado TWC
And in the case of things getting nasty us along the Louisiana coast must be prepared...I can't stress this enough even though the current track is south of us all it takes is a slight movement northward in the track for us to get worse conditions and this strength forecast is not written in stone. Could easily have a hurricane hovering right at our coast...i'll be watching this one closely just to make sure I get no surprises
1912. DocBen
We tend to focus here on the warm waters of the Gulf and how it is warmer than the historical average. That makes sense - it is easy for us to see and understand. Less focus is placed on the colder upper atmosphere. That increases the temperature differential which can also strengthen storms - as was shown with Hurricane Chris - forcast to only reach storm status. Gonna be an interesting season I think.
OMFG...I shot a crow for nothing...lol...seriously, this may ramp up. Hope everybody is preparing for the worst and hoping for the best!
You know i was only joking Patrap...you know your stuff.
Quoting THL3:
Just a lurker but I can tell its time to warm up the IGNORE button......


Agree, long overdue given some of the nonsense being written
1915. nigel20
Quoting pottery:

Has not stopped raining since yesterday afternoon.
It's great !

sigh....

Today is very nice, but we've been having intermittent showers over the past few days or so...
NWS in Austin is saying the High Pressure should back away from Texas by the End of Next Week this could allow Debby to move more North into Texas?
1917. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
. This will be the last storm of the season.

That's what the calabash tree said.
I fear that, for the first time, and due to AGW, it may be wrong.
1918. RickWPB
Quoting THL3:
Just a lurker but I can tell its time to warm up the IGNORE button......
Ha, you're right. My ignore list is 137 long now.
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL


B/C. I just don't see any more than a 80MPH cane out of this.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I personally see debby becoming a hurricane

OFF TOPIC ALERT

Tornado in S Dakota Yesterday:
Video SD Tornado TWC

Not really off topic if it's weather related.
1921. Gaboo
Anyone posted this yet??!?

000
WTNT44 KNHC 232052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
1922. jpsb
Quoting hurricanejunky:
WOW! NHC discounting GFS...interesting...
Very interesting and perhaps a bit risky? But they had to make a call, so good for them at making a gusty call.
Quoting Gaboo:
Anyone posted this yet??!?

000
WTNT44 KNHC 232052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA





you think?
1924. Patrap
I never Poll on the weekends.
1925. KORBIN
Seems like the path of the storm is very uncertain at this point. Looking like a West Movement but not for a couple days, It's gonna get Soggy in FLA!
Claudette in 2003 is a decent analog in landfall location and intensity.




So floridians... What's your wish cast now
Quoting Gaboo:
Anyone posted this yet??!?

000


oh boy :|
Be Prepared for Nasty Hurricane Just In Case!

Better hope we don't get a stall right near the coast, and dump feet of rain on someone down the road...
Quoting Patrap:
I never Poll on the weekends.


You never poll anyway lol
Quoting Altestic2012:
POLL

A) FIZZLE OUT IN GULF
B) TROPICAL STORM LANDFALL
C) CAT. 1 LANDFALL
D) CAT. 2 LANDFALL
E) STRONGER LANDFALL


Max cat 1.

West side is still so weak, and with it moving this slow it'll probably hit land, and will have about a day of being half over land anyway before the CoC hits land, so about time the upper levels become favorable, so it doesn't seem likely to be a cat 2 at landfall.
Quoting reedzone:
I'm still against Debby touching Mexico.. It just doesn't seem right... If she does head west as forecast, Northern Texas.
do you have a reason for that thinking ?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I personally see debby becoming a hurricane

OFF TOPIC ALERT

Tornado in S Dakota Yesterday:
Video SD Tornado TWC



That's an absolutely gorgeous, yet terrifying tornado.

Incredible photo.
1935. Drakoen
Anyone know if the 18z GFS got the recon data?
TWC ratings about to skyrocket
Just had a tornado touch down thirty minutes or so in north naples, and ran through NCH hospital off of Immokalee Rd. (for those of you who know the area). I even caught it on video.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Claudette in 2003 is a decent analog in landfall location and intensity.




Find a hurricane that is 2 times larger than the one your showing me and I will agree. Look how much space 1 band of Debbie takes.
Quoting washingtonian115:
. This will be the last storm of the season.



What is the date of the Mayan Super Doom forecast?
A brief interruption from Debby-related news to bring you something we haven't seen in quite some time: an image of a nearly featureless solar disc. Just (relatively) tiny active area 1511 blemishes the otherwise perfect circle:

Click for larger image:

sun
Quoting canesugah:
local wild animal population a bit nervy. Not so much bird activity as usual, lizards are hiding, also weather doggies are alert.


Just saw the forcast track. Guess I can go tell the birdies to start singing again. The lizards may just have gone to the mountains for the weekend.
1943. dearmas
When are the next set of runs and will they have recon data in them???

Thanks ;)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/ 205251.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
Quoting RickWPB:
Ha, you're right. My ignore list is 137 long now.


Mine has 75... and a lot of them are jasons, JFVs and Stormtops handles.
Quoting LargoFl:
until tomorrow when they do again, then monday they wont
Yes I'm very SURPRISE! the NHC completely discounted both the very realiable GFS and GFDL,but they are the expert!,will see what happens,I still don't buy this track,and I just want to make sure that everybody knows I'm not a Florida wishcaster,just what I see for several days is a vias toward the East,we still have couple of day to see if the GFS and GFDL change to the West.
Quoting CypressJim08:
Just had a tornado touch down thirty minutes or so in north naples, and ran through NCH hospital off of Immokalee Rd. (for those of you who know the area). I even caught it on video.
Link?
1948. shfr173
Quoting Drakoen:
Anyone know if the 18z GFS got the recon data?
good point may be interesting!
1949. hydrus
Shear is very evident.
1950. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
Anyone know if the 18z GFS got the recon data?


I believe Nrt... had a link on what data has made it to forecast models, but I can't seem to find it so far.

I sure hope that at least some has made it.
Quoting SubtropicalHi:



What is the date of the Mayan Super Doom forecast?
December/21-23/2012.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Find a hurricane that is 2 times larger than the one your showing me and I will agree. Look how much space 1 band of Debbie takes.


I said in landfall location and intensity..... not in general.
D id the LLC that was seperated from the convection dissipate? Looks like it on satellite
I say cat 2 at landfall unless it pass very near Louisiana and If Chris which was farther North and only has 2 days to strength into a hurricane. why Debby cannot?
Quoting Neapolitan:
A brief interruption from Debby-related news to bring you something we haven't seen an quite some time: an image of a nearly featureless solar disc. Just (relatively) tiny active area 1511 blemishes the otherwise perfect circle:

Click for larger image:

sun


2012 seems to get all the interesting stuff.
The mayans are off somewhere chuckling to themselves

000
FONT14 KNHC 232052
PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC SAT JUN 23 2012

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 8 20 35
TROP DEPRESSION 7 10 14 13 21 20 21
TROPICAL STORM 89 77 70 62 53 43 33
HURRICANE 4 12 14 23 18 17 11
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 11 11 18 15 14 10
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 2 3 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 60KT 60KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)

TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)

ST MARKS FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11)

APALACHICOLA 34 5 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) 1(20) 1(21)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 9(17) 4(21) 3(24) 2(26) 1(27) 1(28)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 8(12) 4(16) 3(19) 2(21) 1(22) 1(23)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)

PENSACOLA FL 34 3 7(10) 6(16) 5(21) 3(24) 2(26) 1(27)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 18 21(39) 8(47) 5(52) 3(55) 1(56) 1(57)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

MOBILE AL 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 5(19) 4(23) 3(26) 1(27)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GULFPORT MS 34 1 7( 8) 8(16) 7(23) 6(29) 3(32) X(32)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)

STENNIS SC 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 9(24) 6(30) 3(33) X(33)
STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

BURAS LA 34 2 11(13) 14(27) 11(38) 8(46) 3(49) 1(50)
BURAS LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 12 26(38) 15(53) 9(62) 5(67) 2(69) 1(70)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 1 7( 8) 6(14) 6(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 10(24) 8(32) 4(36) 1(37)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 7( 8) 12(20) 15(35) 15(50) 4(54) 1(55)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 2(17) 1(18)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 8(22) 3(25) 2(27)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 11(25) 3(28) 2(30)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 15(29) 7(36) 4(40)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 3(22)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 3(23)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)

FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 3(22)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 9(24) 4(28)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 4(22)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)

TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)

TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
D id the LLC that was seperated from the convection dissipate? Looks like it on satellite

I can still see it...

1958. jpsb
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


WATCH IT TOMORROW HEADING TOWARDS FL
Could be, I have become very reluctance to differ with a NHC track. But this one is really hard to get a handle on. I still think 50-50 east or west. Gutsy call by the NHC. I like that. Hope they are correct.


If I were the head of the NHC I would have kept it unclassified so I did not have to forecast a track. lol, yeah I know.
Quoting weatherh98:
So floridians... What's your wish cast now
for the HEAT to be back again next year
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Levi called it first though 2 days ago, props to him from me!


With all due respect we are still a couple days away from anyone being right or wrong. I think it will head westward myself however, still a lot of uncertainty in that ridge next week.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
It's important to remember guys that when a storm is in it's infancity stage like Debby is - the COC can relocate. Wouldn't be shock if the COC moved back towards the thunderstorms. Not saying it will.
Based on the NHC track...Debby will have to start moving almost due West by late tomorrow afternoon. I see a problem with that. When is the high pressure ridge supposed to start building in??

We're going to see the cone shift quite a bit, IMHO.
It kinda funny how all the florida bloggers were crowing about a landfall there when most models said texas. LOL

We are prepared here in texas though!

Severe thunderstorms heading through Boston now.
As much as the GFS is off in the short range, it was on this system 300+ hours out...

Also, to note, 3/4 of our "Abnormally Early Storms" were storms that would have been detected before the satellite era due to them impacting land. Now people can't complain and say that our numbers are being inflated.
Quoting hydrus:
Shear is very evident.


Shear is our friend. :)
1969. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
Anyone know if the 18z GFS got the recon data?


Looks like some flight-level obs got in, but only 1 dropsonde:




Quoting louisianaboy444:
And in the case of things getting nasty us along the Louisiana coast must be prepared...I can't stress this enough even though the current track is south of us all it takes is a slight movement northward in the track for us to get worse conditions and this strength forecast is not written in stone. Could easily have a hurricane hovering right at our coast...i'll be watching this one closely just to make sure I get no surprises


With the wind thats been blowing @ 15 to 20 all week
from the SE and high tides it wont take much for the water to build along he coast and low lying areas
plus add any rain we get from this even if this dont make hurrecaine status to our South could still get ugly around here and southward all along the La coast
hopfully it stays far South as it passes by if it does decide to go west

Quoting tropicfreak:


I said in landfall location and intensity..... not in general.
Size has somthing to do with intensity.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
NWS in Austin is saying the High Pressure should back away from Texas by the End of Next Week this could allow Debby to move more North into Texas?

Hmmm....maybe :) Gotta watch and see
Well everyone have a good evening, please stay safe and watch your local weather especially s. and central Fl. tonight. The rest of you'll good luck over the next couple days.Thank God for ULL's.
1974. Joe21
I'm not convince on this west track to Texas even though the Nhc is calling it.Could this do a 360 turn and comeback east if the trough strong enough then predicted.And i even though the gfs still call for Florida landfall it has not lost is credibility yet.Is there any tropical waves we have to watch for the united states or Florida since Texas seems to get there storm.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I can still see it...



yes i can to,just looks like one won't be able to in a little while
1976. emcf30
Quoting Neapolitan:
Link?



Storm damage reported in East Naples; tornado warning given

By Naples Daily News staff report
Updated Saturday, June 23, 2012

EAST NAPLES — Authorities are responding to a report of a tornado touching down in East Naples in the vicinity of Rattlesnake Hammock Road and U.S. 41 East.

East Naples firefighters and Collier County sheriff’s officials are responding and settling up a command post at U.S. 41 and Rattlesnake Hammock Road.

Authorities said a tornado warning has just been issued for the area until about 4:30 p.m. and hten extended until after 5 p.m.

Daily News staff on scene is reporting roof damage to at least one home on Barcelona Circle.

Authorities also are receiving calls about storm damage to trees, fences, some roofs and pool cages in the Boca Ciega and Lakewood neighborhoods.

Several emergency personnel responding reported seeing what appeared to be a funnel cloud. It moved in the direction from south to northwest, with reports of airborne sightings in North Naples a short time later.

Link

Quoting washingtonian115:
December/21-23/2012.


Then that will be the last storm
Quoting Neapolitan:
Link?


I am trying to upload the video I shot onto YouTube. I will have it shortly. I am sure it is plastered all over the local news.
1979. SuzK
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


WATCH IT TOMORROW HEADING TOWARDS FL


Better yet, watch it experience fission, and let one low go east and one go west. Remember that all bets are off with our 21st century weather, and anything can happen. Still waiting expectantly to see what outrageous thing could come next, and Debby isn't exempt!

Quoting Skeptic33:
blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Quoting weatherh98:
So floridians... What's your wish cast now
For all the tornado's and convection that's blowing over us now to take the NHC track too...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Size has somthing to do with intensity.


I said intensity because of the Cat 1 at landfall... that's what I was referring to.
1983. SuzK
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
Quoting Mamasteph:
For all the tornado's and convection that's blowing over us now to take the NHC track too...


yea those who want to throw crap in the faces of those who think this could still go to Florida fail to realize that the western half of the state is getting rocked right now with bad weather directly from Debby...in fact we will likely have more impacts here today and tomorrow than most of the other parts of the Gulf Coast will depending on her eventual track

but whatever, its always been like this here, so just have to get used to it
I am very suprised at the NHC forecast track, not for my personal sake, but for the fact that they discounted several models that had the system going east instead, and if this storm goes to Texas, then this will be a most suprising continuation of the unusually high Texas/Mexico/Louisiana (Western Gulf) Activity the past 5 years. Remeber that the western gulf has had 4 hurricane landfalls the past 5 years (Alex, Ike, Gustav, Humberto). These were significant storms, and also not to mention this region also had 5 tropical storms in addition to these hurricanes (Erin, Edouard, Hermine, Lee, Don) while the Eastern Gulf has experienced no hurricanes in this time period, with only one tropical storm being significant (Fay), and the other 4 tropical storms impacting the Eastern Gulf (Barry, Claudette, Ida, and Bonnie) were piddly things. It will be interesting to see if this continuation of Texas/Louisiana/Mexico landfalls continues the rest of the season or if there will be a return to more Eastern gulf activity.
1986. UGLYWX
Appears to be sliding to the SW slightly over the last several images.

1987. hydrus
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Shear is our friend. :)
Better believe it.. ;)
1988. Patrap
Swooosh, ahhhhh....


Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM and Menu active, last frame, omit


1989. Patrap
Orleans Parish

Coastal Flood Warning
Statement as of 4:40 PM CDT on June 23, 2012

... Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 7 am CDT Monday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Warning... which is in effect until 7 am CDT Monday. The
coastal Flood Advisory is no longer in effect.

* Coastal flooding... coastal flooding is expected beginning Sunday

* timing... coastal flooding is expected beginning Sunday morning.
Highest water levels will occur near the time of high Tide.
Water levels will remain elevated into Monday.

* Impacts... in Hancock County water levels will peak at 2 to 3
feet above normal astronomical tide Sunday with locally higher
levels up to 4 feet possible in some locations. Flooding will
impact low lying areas around Bay St Louis and Waveland... including
but not limited to Shoreline Park and Bayside estates. Around
Lake Pontchartrain water levels will increase to near 2 feet
above normal astronomical tide beginning late
Sunday... increasing to 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical
tide by Monday. Flooding will affect low lying areas around Lake
Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain. Some roadways near the lake
could become flooded. Minor flooding is possible in some
neighorhoods along the


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert for
rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life and
property.
1990. KathyK
Quoting Littleninjagrl:


I'm in Tampa (Town N Country) and I have not had anything more than a 30-40 second very light mist. Its been cloudy all day but no actual rain. I don't know where this "hell is breaking loose" but, it ain't anywhere around Tampa (my area of Tampa anyway).


None down here in (my area anyway) of South Fort Myers either, though there was a tornado warning south of us in Collier, so there is some hell breaking loose way south of you in the SW Fl area. We've been getting a nice, steady, soak-the-ground rain here. Fine with me - bit more of that and we'll be out of the yellow on the drought maps.
NEW Blog!!!!!
1992. hydrus
No real model consensus as of yet..CMCEuro..96 hour.The mighty NOGAPS brings it in south of Texas.
1993. KathyK
Quoting KORBIN:
Seems like the path of the storm is very uncertain at this point. Looking like a West Movement but not for a couple days, It's gonna get Soggy in FLA!


Soggy is good - much of FL is still in the US 'drought' map. Flooding, on the other hand, we can do without!
Just got back, to find TS Debby! and the NHC is going west!
Quoting SuzK:
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA


I hate it when Avila is behind the desk...
Looks like it's headed back to Tampa! Who hoo! Taking tomorrow off for a little windsurfing...