WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Two Atlantic disturbances to watch; Guchol hits Japan; extreme heat in Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:55 PM GMT on June 19, 2012

An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms has developed over Western and Central Caribbean, and this disturbance will need to be watched for development as it moves northwest at 5 - 10 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and its modest area of heavy thunderstorms is bringing rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba today. Wind shear is a moderate to high 20 - 30 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula; strong upper-level winds out of the southwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. None of the computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the system grow in size and potential for development over the next few days. There are currently no hurricane hunter missions scheduled to investigate.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.

North Atlantic Invest 95L headed out to sea
A well-organized low pressure system with a closed surface circulation but little heavy thunderstorm activity (Invest 95L) is over the open Atlantic between Bermuda and Canada. This storm doesn't have enough heavy thunderstorms to deserve a name, but has a 50% chance of doing so before hitting colder waters on Wednesday, according to NHC. 95L is headed northeast out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Guchol as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on June 19, 2012, as the storm approached Japan. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Guchol hits Japan
Tropical Storm Guchol made landfall in Japan's southern Wakayama prefecture near 9 UTC Tuesday morning. The Japan Times reports that the storm has injured five people, and 83,000 people have been evacuated. Guchol is the first June tropical cyclone to hit Japan since 2004. Tokyo recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 10:47pm local time (9:47 am EDT.) A wind gust of 74 mph was recorded at Shizuhama at 8:21 pm local time. The main threat from Guchol is heavy rain. The storm is expected to dump rains in excess of 400 mm (15.7") in the Tokai region, and 250 mm (9.8") inches near Tokyo. Japan is also watching Tropical Storm Talim, which is expected to pass along the length of the country Thursday and Friday. Talim's rains could cause considerable trouble, as they will fall on soils already saturated by the passage of Tropical Storm Guchol.

Intense heat in Colorado
One of the warmest days in Eastern Colorado history was observed Monday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Denver had a daily record high of 100°F, but Wray, near the Kansas-Nebraska border, reached 109°. This was just short of its all-time record (for any month) of 110°F set in July 1934, and just 5° shy of the all-time state of Colorado record of 114°F set at Las Animas and Sedgwick on July 25, 1952. Lamar in Southeast Colorado hit 108°F yesterday, just 3° short of its all-time record of 111°F set in July 1934. Sterling, the in the far Northeast part of the state, hit 108°F, which may be its all-time heat record. The intense heat yesterday was accompanied by some very dry air. The humidity in Broomfield, CO fell to 4% for more than six hours on Monday. The hot, dry weather made firefighting efforts difficult for the massive wildfire burning 15 miles west of Fort Collins, CO. This fire is the third largest and most destructive fire in Colorado history. Firefighters have achieved 50% containment of the blaze.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Grothar:


Yes, that was a bad one and caused a lot of deaths. I think it also developed from just a blob in the Caribbean. I remember how it took us all by surprise when it intensified so fast.
Yes, Alex developed from a blob in the general area of this one but a little further south if I remember correctly. Brought us lots of rain and gusty winds but didn't actually develop until it passed Cayman. Intensified very rapidly.
Quoting mobileshadow:


Conweather is a fraud and has no met degree and steals info from Jason Moreland, Levi and many other people and repost it word for word. And Rob also begs for money for $250 weather software that he doesn't even know how to use
Unless you have ironclad proof, and until "steals info" is defined, you should probably make it clear that you're stating opinion--your opinion--not fact. Libel and slander are not okay.
Quoting Grothar:


And you should be. There has been a big shift in all of the models since yesterday. I do think we will see Debby out of this. Depending on where the dominant low will be. It seems the models are shifting their original thought of it moving west or NW and now seem to favor a NE movement.







I did a blog last night on this. If I am wrong, I will be very embarrassed and will going into early retirement.


As I have been saying since last week people across the FL Penisula really need to watch this one as It just wasn't making any sense of this second ULL that they were trying to develope off FL and reinforcing the ridge to it's north basically keeping FL bone dry. I just wasn't buying it and it was the Nogaps & CMC that had this scenario the whole time and those two models deserve a lot of respect.

It lookis like Saturday thru Tuesday we may have Debby crossing C FL. This could be a significant flooding event on tap for much of FL as the GFS is still showing 20" to 25" of rain across SW FL.

0Z GFS 8 day precip accum.
E 23MPH G 41MPH
Can someone post the TCHP map please?.
1506. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:


As I have been saying since last week people across the FL Penisula really need to watch this one as It just wasn't making any sense of this second ULL that they were trying to develope off FL and reinforcing the ridge to it's north basically keeping FL bone dry. I just wasn't buying it and it was the Nogaps & CMC that had this scenario the whole time and those two models deserve a lot of respect.

It lookis like Saturday thru Tuesday we may have Debby crossing C FL. This could be a significant flooding event on tap for much of FL as the GFS is still showing 20" to 25" of rain across SW FL.

0Z GFS 8 day precip accum.


the blog never admits when its wrong..LOL
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

A rather complex set up exists today in the NW Caribbean and the GOM just off the extreme NW tip of Cuba.

This loop shows the low pressure associated with the trough just entering the GOM off the NW tip of Cuba with a clearly evident rotation to the cloud field.

Much further to the SE between Grand Cayman and our two sister islands there appears to be a circulation trying to get going in what is left over from the deep convection last night.

For now, these two areas are too close together for either to organize IMO but if both persist and they continue to separate one or the other will likely become dominant.

All of the vorticity that is showing up on the maps is over the Western tip of Cuba at this time so the other feature has a lot of work to do to become a player.

Let's see how this plays out over the next 12 to 18 hours.Conditions aloft in the area where the trough is are still very hostile with shear values being high.
The area over the Caymans has better conditions for organization but this is all just a watch and see scenario that may or may not materialise.


Think its the old center from the Isle of Youth last night and it moved Northwest shear in that area is 30-35 knots with little convection. Once the convection near the low closer to the Cayman persist pressures would lower and it could establish itself.
Quoting mobileshadow:


Conweather is a fraud and has no met degree and steals info from Jason Moreland, Levi and many other people and repost it word for word. And Rob also begs for money for $250 weather software that he doesn't even know how to use. So let's stop mentioning that site :)


If they are going by Levi's forecast then they are wrong as he insist this is going to TX or LA which makes no sense. So let Crownweather still form levi as they would basically look stupid at this point.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Chris is up 5 knots to 45; pressure down to 100mb:

That's an awfully low central pressure! That by far makes Chris the strongest tropical cyclone on record! :P
1510. shawn26
When are the next model runs due out?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Can someone post the TCHP map please?.



Here you go:
1512. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If they are going by Levi's forecast then they are wrong as he insist this is going to TX or LA which makes no sense. So let Crownweather still form levi as they would basically look stupid at this point.



woah..woah..lets be nice now..
12PM
Quoting shawn26:
When are the next model runs due out?
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Think its the old center from the Isle of Youth last night and it moved Northwest shear in that area is 30-35 knots with little convection. Once the convection near the low closer to the Cayman persist pressures would lower and it could establish itself.


There is no evidence of a low over the Caymans at this time from the obs but that could change. I do agree that what we are seeing just off the Western tip of Cuba is the broad low pressure associated with the trough that ASCAT caught last night near the Isle of Youth
Quoting ncstorm:


the blog never admits when its wrong..LOL


Lol. I'm wrong A LOT! But usually the blog will set me straight. And often not unkindly. I don't mind. I've learned a lot from everyone. :)
Quoting Hurricanes305:



Here you go:

Thank you for that.When storms find their way in the Gulf/Caribbean this year they will be very happy.
Big slug of moisture associated with that disturbance can easily be seen from the Key West radar:

1518. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. I'm wrong A LOT! But usually the blog will set me straight. And often not unkindly. I don't mind. I've learned a lot from everyone. :)


I have been wrong plenty of times and yes some are very nice in setting people straight but some..well..

there are a lot of knowledgable weather folks on here and I learn something new every day..
Quoting Neapolitan:
Unless you have ironclad proof, and until "steals info" is defined, you should probably make it clear that you're stating opinion--your opinion--not fact. Libel and slander are not okay.


I have proof and you don't have to be rocket scientist to see this cause it's clear as day and no doubt plagiarism. Now back to Future 96L
1520. lilElla
Good Morning All - and for our Northern friends/family, stay safe! We are hoping that this rain, in moderation, makes it's way to S. Wisconsin later today. It is dusty dry and the corn, only 12" tall, is already spiking.

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

MNC031-075-137-202130-
/O.CON.KDLH.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120620T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LAKE MN-COOK MN-ST. LOUIS MN-
700 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST.
LOUIS...COOK AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DULUTH AND THE NORTH SHORE...

AT 653 AM CDT...THE RAIN HAD LET UP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE DULUTH
AREA AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEATHER OBSERVERS REPORTED
NEARLY 8 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE DENFELD AREA OF WESTERN DULUTH.

THE DULUTH POLICE DEPARTMENT ADVISES NO TRAVEL IN THE CITY. RAINFALL
OF NEARLY 8 INCHES IN SPOTS WAS NOTED FROM THE DULUTH AREA AND ALONG
HIGHWAY 61 OF THE NORTH SHORE. VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT ARE REPORTING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF
DULUTH...WITH SOME COLLAPSED ROADS AND NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES
THROUGHOUT THE CITY. THE FLOOD APPEARS TO BE REMINISCENT OF THE
FLOOD OF 1972 AND ONE THAT SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. THE DULUTH
NEWS TRIBUNE ONLINE LIVE BLOG HAD REPORTS OF PEOPLE BEING
RESCUED...VEHICLES FALLING INTO SINKHOLES ON COLLAPSED ROADS AND
RIVERS AND STREAMS OVERTAKING ROADWAYS.
Yup, that's definitely a crapload of deep layer moisture.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Chris is up 5 knots to 45; pressure down to 100mb:

AL, 03, 2012062012, , BEST, 0, 381N, 523W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 40, 1014, 250, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, M,


oh i hope not :O

the trough doesnt look too overamplified on the gfs, not sure why debby is forming off the east coast, the cmc seems more realistic, but even that shows a gulf and an atlantic storm, which is unrealistic.

i think if you take the gulf cmc storm only, and shift it a tad west, you would get the correct scenario.
the blob in the BOC could beocome something, you never know.
Back later
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Big slug of moisture associated with that disturbance can easily be seen from the Key West radar:



Yea, it could give Dade and Broward a good 3-5 inches when it moves through. Where I am its already some big street puddles.
Quoting shawn26:
When are the next model runs due out?

What models are you looking for? There are hundreds of models that are run 24-7 everyday
Quoting mobileshadow:

What models are you looking for? There are hundreds of models that are run 24-7 everyday
He's probably referring to the models such as the GFS Euro CMC NOGAPS.
Quoting lilElla:
Good Morning All - and for our Northern friends/family, stay safe! We are hoping that this rain, in moderation, makes it's way to S. Wisconsin later today. It is dusty dry and the corn, only 12" tall, is already spiking.

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

MNC031-075-137-202130-
/O.CON.KDLH.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120620T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LAKE MN-COOK MN-ST. LOUIS MN-
700 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST.
LOUIS...COOK AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DULUTH AND THE NORTH SHORE...

AT 653 AM CDT...THE RAIN HAD LET UP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE DULUTH
AREA AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEATHER OBSERVERS REPORTED
NEARLY 8 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE DENFELD AREA OF WESTERN DULUTH.

THE DULUTH POLICE DEPARTMENT ADVISES NO TRAVEL IN THE CITY. RAINFALL
OF NEARLY 8 INCHES IN SPOTS WAS NOTED FROM THE DULUTH AREA AND ALONG
HIGHWAY 61 OF THE NORTH SHORE. VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT ARE REPORTING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF
DULUTH...WITH SOME COLLAPSED ROADS AND NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES
THROUGHOUT THE CITY. THE FLOOD APPEARS TO BE REMINISCENT OF THE
FLOOD OF 1972 AND ONE THAT SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. THE DULUTH
NEWS TRIBUNE ONLINE LIVE BLOG HAD REPORTS OF PEOPLE BEING
RESCUED...VEHICLES FALLING INTO SINKHOLES ON COLLAPSED ROADS AND
RIVERS AND STREAMS OVERTAKING ROADWAYS.

Wow, I hadn't realized how much rain they had gotten.



Invest 96L comming soon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Invest 96L comming soon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Considering those Coordinates, they think it is going to move quite a bit NW.
Quoting washingtonian115:
He's probably referring to the models such as the GFS Euro CMC NOGAPS.


Not the blond and redheaded models ? I have fun looking at those :)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Invest 96L comming soon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Oh? that's a surprise.They said we wouldn't see no flights for at least two days when they made that statement yesterday.Seems the blob is determined to get a name eventually.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Invest 96L comming soon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Yup at the 2pm update. Finally we have some spaghetti models on this.
according to the gfs, sub 1000mb lows just split in half when they want to..

the gfs also brings the system from the yucatan,boc area, more than from the cuba area.

i discount that model run.
Link

Pressure forecast for next few days for GOMEX
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If they are going by Levi's forecast then they are wrong as he insist this is going to TX or LA which makes no sense. So let Crownweather still form levi as they would basically look stupid at this point.


Dude. I understand where you are coming from, but you are relying upon ONE model's output, and refuse to even consider any other viewpoint. While it is good you are standing up in what you believe in, you are being so vehement about your opinion that you are actually reducing your credibility. Also, when you add in that you would be directly impacted by this one solution (and not as impacted by the others), you are showing signs of bias.

I'm not saying you should back off what you're saying, but bashing everyone else who holds a different opinion is counterproductive, and akin to cutting off your hand to "prove a point".

Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh? that's a surprise.They said we wouldn't see no flights for at least two days when they made that statement yesterday.Seems the blob is determined to get a name eventually.
I know, have we ever had an invest off a 20% blob?
Somebody's going to get rained on.

Quoting jeffs713:

Dude. I understand where you are coming from, but you are relying upon ONE model's output, and refuse to even consider any other viewpoint. While it is good you are standing up in what you believe in, you are being so vehement about your opinion that you are actually reducing your credibility. Also, when you add in that you would be directly impacted by this one solution (and not as impacted by the others), you are showing signs of bias.

I'm not saying you should back off what you're saying, but bashing everyone else who holds a different opinion is counterproductive, and akin to cutting off your hand to "prove a point".


Whats your view point?
Quoting ILwthrfan:

I know, have we ever had an invest off a 20% blob?


We have had Invest when there has been no yellow circled area and they are not dependent on one another
Quoting canehater1:
Link

Pressure forecast for next few days for GOMEX


Wow. Interesting thanks. :)


nice wave, comes off at at 1005mb
1542. 7544
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Yup at the 2pm update. Finally we have some spaghetti models on this.


lets see 30% on the next two imo

if it does become a invest models will show a nnw move into the gulf and most will turn it ne or nne at wat lat dont know yet stay tuned things are getting very interesting today june 20 2012
Wow this appears to be tightening up.  Check out the RGB flash loop of pre-96L . Shear is still obviously still destroying any thunderstorms that are trying to form near its center.  
Maybe I am a novice , but given the forecasted shear
I don't see how anything major
can develop in the S. Gulf...perhaps just a big ol weak Low... That being said I will still be watching
closely as I have 13 others and a vessel to take care of...
When is shear forecasted to slacken up?
If the Euro's right, many in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic will get a huge cooldown next week!!!
Quoting canehater1:
Link

Pressure forecast for next few days for GOMEX



that comes from the BOC yucatan too, must be GFS based.
The blob i think will come from cuba over the loop current into the central GOM, and i dont really see it splitting after having organized over the warm waters.

Either it goes to LA, or the whole thing turns across FL.
The models seem to be taking the BOC blob as the dominant one and taking that into the NW gulf.
But then they still show a weak borderline TS hitting mexico.



Maybe a possible solution is that the two blobs end up nearly merged, one goes east to fl, and one goes west, but i dont imagine we will see two west gulf systems in such a short timespan.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Whats your view point?

The models have not done the best job of initializing the system, since its genesis point ranges from the BOC across the entire western Caribbean. That adds a lot of uncertainty to the model output.

Right now, the GFS is an outlier, and nothing close to the consensus. It should be paid attention to in the event of a change, but as a general rule, outliers are not to be followed as gospel. In statistical terms, following an outlier like the GFS is similar to assuming at a height of 6'8" is normal because you know one guy who is 6'8".

Quoting canehater1:
Maybe I am a novice , but given the forecasted shear
I don't see how anything major
can develop in the S. Gulf...perhaps just a big ol weak Low... That being said I will still be watching
closely as I have 13 others and a vessel to take care of...
That shear is very well defined all the way back into the mountains of Mexico and has shown no signs of let up in the past week.  We can still get a system despite the shear, but she won't bark too loud if she does develop.  Just my 2 cents; however, the flooding could be catastrophic depending on how it exits north.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
When is shear forecasted to slacken up?


The good thing is that the shear is not forecasted to weaken that's why I would be shocked if we get more than a strong TS out of this with the main threat being from LA/MS border to the FL panhandle
Hey Mobileshadow, shear is around 20-30 knots over the blob and decreasing. In the next 24 hours it should fall to 10-20 knots and by the time it reaches the gulf it will be under a big anticyclone where shear will be < 10 knots.

Quoting ILwthrfan:
Wow this appears to be tightening up.  Check out the RGB flash loop of pre-96L . Shear is still obviously still destroying any thunderstorms that are trying to form near its center.  

It is lacking well-defined low-level circulation. It looks pretty good at middle levels, though. If it can bring all that low-level energy together, it would be cooking with gas... but as it is right now, its got a way to go.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


nice wave, comes off at at 1005mb
That's the one the models are trying to develop into our first potential cape verde system this year.
.... Impact weathers thoughts

1555. NSB207
Whatever forms in the gulf, a rain event in central and north Florida will be beneficial.
Perhaps too early in the season for any significant TS or hurricane event
Just remember, a blogger said the ridge over the plains that is coming will be able to reach far enough east to capture anything at 89W and sent it westbound. Let the games begin....
Over an inch in WPB!!:)
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W
Quoting NSB207:
Whatever forms in the gulf, a rain event in central and north Florida will be beneficial.
Perhaps too early in the season for any significant TS or hurricane event
ponds.are.full.already.e.cen.fl.
Here is where the first fix by Recon will be on Friday at 2 PM EDT.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.








I do not believe the low off the e coast in the second image is tropical or subtropical, but you never know it could be another chris
good morning all

just doing a cup of coffee here
having a look around
wunder if gro got his umbrella out
today
gonna be a little wet out
while watering the grass
Quoting canehater1:
Maybe I am a novice , but given the forecasted shear
I don't see how anything major
can develop in the S. Gulf...perhaps just a big ol weak Low... That being said I will still be watching
closely as I have 13 others and a vessel to take care of...


Look at the Northern gulf and the Florida panhandle on the latest shear map

Shear Tendency

The shear in the gulf is from an ULL which is moving north as we speak thus nothing to enhance wind shear.
That upper ridge will meet will the system in the next 24 to 36 hours. Then strongly establish itself on top of the system then shear will drop under 10 knots this will allow air to pile up and convection to grow along with bath water type sea surface temps. There wont be a lot of things to stop it from developing than time over water.



Quoting washingtonian115:
That's the one the models are trying to develop into our first potential cape verde system this year.


It will be a challenge considering all the SAL over the Atlantic.
Quoting Grothar:
To Grother

How do I pull up the radar you show in your message number 1492 ?

I would like to pull it up on my computer.

Thanks. Beacman 42
1571. MahFL
Quoting hydrus:
I dont mind saying that I am becoming more concerned about whats happening south of Cuba.


Thats just a trough blob. No defined low has formed yet, as far as I can see. If it does it's forcast to go NNW first.
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormChris for 20June12pmGMT:
Its vector* had changed from ESEast at 19.4mph(31.2km/h) to East at 21.9mph(35.2km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from 40knots(46mph)74km/h to 45knots(52mph)83km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 1005millibars to 1000millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Chris's path...
ISP is LongIsland,NewYork : BDA is Bermuda :: YYT is SaintJohns,Newfoundland

The SWesternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest95L was initiated, as a closedLOw.
The NEasternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest95L became TropicalStormChris
The Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is TS.Chris's most recent position.

Copy&paste isp, bda, yyt, 28.8n68.8w- 29.2n67.1w- 30.4n65.3w- 31.7n64.0w- 33.4n63.5w- 35.3n62.5w- 36.8n61.9w- 38.0n61.3w- 38.5n60.5w- 39.1n59.6w- 39.4n58.5w- 39.5n58.0w, 39.5n58.0w-38.9n56.7w, 38.9n56.7w-38.3n54.7w, 38.3n54.7w-38.1n52.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
anyone else notice the vortex headed into the BOC???,IMO that'll be what develops as it heads SW!!,whata trixy!