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Category 1 Hurricane Carlotta hits Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on June 16, 2012

Hurricane Carlotta made landfall near Escondido, Mexico Friday night at 8 pm PDT as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Carlotta moved inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico this morning, and has weakened to a tropical depression. Since Carlotta was a relatively small hurricane, strong winds affected only a small portion of the coast, and wind damage was probably fairly limited. However, the hurricane has dumped heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and two deaths from a landslide triggered by heavy rains occurred this morning in the Oaxaca state community of Pluma Hidalgo. Carlotta will continue to dump heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and the 4 - 8 inches of total rainfall that will occur in some areas will be capable of causing more life-threatening flash floods and landslides through the weekend.


Figure 1. Radar image of Carlotta from the Puerto Ánoel radar shortly before the storm made landfall.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Stormchaser121:

Huh? :)


On what basis?

Can't make it any simpler, I'm afraid. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


On what basis?

Can't make it any simpler, I'm afraid. :)

I have no clue what u mean....all i know is...That storm is gonna go north in my opinion rather than going into mexico.
Quoting Stormchaser121:

I have no clue what u mean....all i know is...That storm is gonna go north in my opinion rather than going into mexico.


Seriously?

Okay, to put it another way: why do you think it's gonna go north? I'm just trying to uncover your reasons here.
Guchol has an amazing visible satellite presentation.
Nobody knows the track of a storm, that is just a twinkle in a modules eye.
Quoting winter123:
Guchol has an amazing visible satellite presentation.

Yes it does...very impressive!
Quoting scott39:
Nobody knows the track of a storm, that is just a twinkle in a modules eye.


Good to see you again, scott. How you been?


as of 18 mins ago
510. TXCWC
North Mexico Coast

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Guchol has a weird structure, and it does not look like an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.


Id say that he has absorbed a bit of dry air.  

Quoting KoritheMan:


Good to see you again, scott. How you been?
Doing good, how about yourself? Been too busy to chat this season. Looks like the BOC/SW GOM could get interesting.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Guchol has a weird structure, and it does not look like an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.



I don't get it.
Quoting scott39:
Doing good, how about yourself? Been too busy to chat this season. Looks like the BOC/SW GOM could get interesting.


I'm fine, for the most part. Just kicking back a little.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Seriously?

Okay, to put it another way: why do you think it's gonna go north? I'm just trying to uncover your reasons here.

Ohh oh gotcha...well that trough over the plains! I believe it will pull it north
Quoting winter123:
Guchol has an amazing visible satellite presentation.

Its upper outflow looks more symmetric O_o

Earlier...its upper outflow was biased to the south...I think this means Guchol is in a more favorable environment. Category 5 coming?
Mystery Mini Space Shuttle X-37B Lands in California

Link

Quoting Stormchaser121:

Ohh oh gotcha...well that trough over the plains! I believe it will pull it north


Alright, good enough. We will see. ;)
JTWC Prognostic reasoning for Guchol:

"THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)
HAS STARTED
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. "
Quoting KoritheMan:


Alright, good enough. We will see. ;)

we sureee will ;)
Quoting Darren23:
JTWC Prognostic reasoning for Guchol:

"THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)
HAS STARTED
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. "

I guess no cat 5 then despite the more symmetric-looking structure to the storm...

Impressive storm regardless....
Quoting KoritheMan:


Me too.

I just went to Cheesecake Factory this evening:-)
I'm off to bed...enjoy the remainder of the weekend everyone!
One more thing..."happy father's day" to all the good fathers out there...hope y'all have a great day...good night again!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I guess no cat 5 then despite the more symmetric-looking structure to the storm...

Impressive storm regardless....




Was never going to make it to Cat 5. It's now moving out of hot water into warm water. If it had 48hrs more over the hot waters of the Wpac then it would of had the chance.





and the fact it's so lopsided has hindered Guchol from becoming cat 5.
526. TXCWC
EURO and GFS in 100% agreement on genesis timing and location of Gulf Low - disagreement on what happens after that though

GFS 96hrs


EURO 96hrs
15:00 PM JST June 17 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Guchol (930 hPa) located at 18.3N 127.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
250 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 23.5N 127.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - South of Okinawa
48 HRS: 30.3N 132.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - East of Yakushima
72 HRS: 37.7N 143.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Off northeastern Honshu
528. JLPR2
Anyone here and any opinions on this?

Quoting KoritheMan:
Oh, I feel I should mention that I'm trying to move up in Walmart. Monday I'm going to take what's called a department manager test. If I pass, I'm apparently eligible to become a department manager. Unfortunately, no such positions exist at the moment since the only one that did (meat department) was taken by somebody else. But still, it'll be there when I need it.

What a joyous festivity!

...Not.


Good luck Kori. :)
Quoting JLPR2:
Anyone here and any opinions on this?



I was looking at it before... Kinda Franklin looking
531. JLPR2
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I was looking at it before... Kinda Franklin looking


It's looking interesting, I wonder if it'll get mentioned in the Two.
532. JLPR2
Rain come to me! XD
Close to 17 days since it rained. Heard a very short shower a little while ago, but a little shower isn't going to clean all the soil that I moved around in the backyard and it definitely wasn't enough for the plants.



Right now it's all concentrated on the west side of the island. Bummer... -.-
One word is WOW!! Look at the BOC! got a little off africa and the atlantic ocean off the NC coast. Check out the Western Pacific too something is brewing out there very soon to left of the typhoon
Good morning. Guchol is still maintaining strength, impressive because it's moving into cooler waters and drier air.

This came out of nowhere:



The SPC specifically mentioned a threat for strong tornadoes, so we could have ourselves an outbreak today.
The weather here is much like the economy:

Overcast, damp and cool with no prospect of immediate recovery - the monotony only broken by worse weather (such as the floods in Wales). If malaise had a meteorological image, that's what it'd be.

Last I looked, according to some extrapolations, we're on course for one of the wettest Junes on record (after one of the wettest Aprils. May was ok) in some places.

We live in hope.
Quoting JLPR2:
Rain come to me! XD
Close to 17 days since it rained. Heard a very short shower a little while ago, but a little shower isn't going to clean all the soil that I moved around in the backyard and it definitely wasn't enough for the plants.



Right now it's all concentrated on the west side of the island. Bummer... -.-


Good morning and happy fathers day. Finnally is rained over my house after those 17 days without anything. Is a cloudy Sunday morning in San Juan for a change and that means not so warm temperatures and we can have a few showers today before another dry and hazy period arrives by the mid-week timeframe. I would like all that in the Mona passage to move over us.




Good morning. Looks kind of interesting SE of Jamaica.
From the Houston-Galveston forecast discussion this morning:

BY MIDWEEK EYES BEGIN LOOKING SOUTH TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME SORT OF TROPICAL FEATURE LOOKING MORE CERTAIN TO DEVELOP. GFS HAS HAD LESS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT SO OUR FORECAST WILL WEIGH ECMWF SOLUTIONS MORE HEAVILY IN FINAL PRODUCTS. ECMWF HAS MORE OF A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH WHILE GFS ENDS UP WITH THE UPPER HIGH FURTHER NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC FEATURES. STILL WARM AND HUMID AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEEK FOR RAIN CHANCES.
This mornings discussions by different Texas and Louisiana NWS offices.

Brownsville:

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE LONG TERM TREND
REMAINS THE SAME WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AND SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUR
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL FROM THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TREND BUT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE DETAILS WITH ANY TYPE OF TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY VARY WITH THE EACH MODELS OUTPUT.

AS FOR THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. GFS REMAINS THE
STRONGEST DEVELOPING A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF. THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND WEAKER WITH THE CIRCULATION IN
THE SAME AREA AND THE CANADIAN SEEMS TO DEVELOP TWO SEPARATE LOWS
ON IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND THE OTHER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL.
WONT BUY ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS UNTIL SOMETHING DEFINITE DEVELOPS.


Corpus Christi:

WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. GFS
CONTINUES TO WANT TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND MOVE IN NNW TOWARDS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
/WITH PREVIOUS RUNS HAVING THE SYSTEM ANYWHERE FROM TAMPICO MX TO
LAKE CHARLES LA/. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND KEEPS BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW GULF WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO S TX LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND THUS IS A LITTLE DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

Houston/Galveston:

BY MIDWEEK EYES BEGIN LOOKING SOUTH TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME
SORT OF TROPICAL FEATURE LOOKING MORE CERTAIN TO DEVELOP. GFS HAS
HAD LESS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT SO OUR
FORECAST WILL WEIGH ECMWF SOLUTIONS MORE HEAVILY IN FINAL
PRODUCTS. ECMWF HAS MORE OF A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH WHILE GFS ENDS UP WITH THE
UPPER HIGH FURTHER NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC FEATURES. STILL
WARM AND HUMID AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEEK FOR RAIN CHANCES.

Austin/San Antonio:

THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CLOSED TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE SWRN/WRN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE BROAD LOW OVER THE SRN GULF...WITH
EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW INTO S TX.

Lake Charles:

SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SWRN GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALL THE MODELS ARE PINGING ON SOME
SORT OF LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MID-WEEK...
UNFORTUNATELY THEIR SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS POINT. GFS
REMAINS MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM...DEEPENING IT AND CARRYING
IT INTO THE NRN MEXICAN COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. EUROPEAN BASICALLY
SITS AND SPINS IT IN THE SWRN GULF WHILE THE CANADIAN WHIPS IT OFF
TO THE NE TOWARD THE CNTL/ERN GULF COAST. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE
GFS LEAD WITH ITS MOSTLY CONSISTENT SOLUTION ALTHOUGH WILL TONE
WINDS/POPS DOWN A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF GOOD CONFIDENCE.

New Orleans/Baton Rouge:

RAIN CHANCES MAY INCH
UP A BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND IF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF
WITH A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED FOR SEVERAL RUNS
NOW. HOWEVER...THE LATEST TREND WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS
HAS BEEN TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL AND THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
..............................Good Morning folks and HAPPY FATHERS DAY TO ALL THE DADS OUT THERE!
RE: 540


Good post. Thanks for taking the time to put that all in place!
Someone asked last night about the Bermuda area and here is the answer by NHC:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting bigwes6844:
One word is WOW!! Look at the BOC! got a little off africa and the atlantic ocean off the NC coast. Check out the Western Pacific too something is brewing out there very soon to left of the typhoon


This is why in the far WPAC there is more action. HK TD warning.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Bulletin issued at 19:45 HKT 17/Jun/2012

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about 800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

At 8 p.m., the tropical depression over the seas to the

east of Hainan Island was estimated to be about 460 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong (near 19.1 degrees north 111.4 degrees east) and is forecast to move east slowly.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
Happy fathers day to all the fathers out there.Taking hubby out to the eat today with some of our friends and family.Have a nice one today guys/fathers.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


When I saw the text initially without reading it ,I thought it was for the Western Caribbean.But that area will also have a circle if not today,by Monday.
so the Euro is back on the idea of two lows in the Gulf



as the CMC


and then crossing florida
Quoting ncstorm:
so the Euro is back on the idea of two lows in the Gulf



as the CMC


and then crossing florida
Seems they want to develop it once it gets past Florida.
00z Euro Ensembles

Quoting washingtonian115:
Seems they want to develop it once it gets past Florida.


The Euro operational dosent but the CMC does
Happy Father's Day Dads! And good morning all. :)
557. BDAwx
Happy father's day everyone!

Quoting JLPR2:
Anyone here and any opinions on this?



That needs to go away- bringing us more rain here in Bermuda.
gfs is more pronounced in the other models
Quoting bappit:
From the Houston-Galveston forecast discussion this morning:

BY MIDWEEK EYES BEGIN LOOKING SOUTH TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME SORT OF TROPICAL FEATURE LOOKING MORE CERTAIN TO DEVELOP. GFS HAS HAD LESS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT SO OUR FORECAST WILL WEIGH ECMWF SOLUTIONS MORE HEAVILY IN FINAL PRODUCTS. ECMWF HAS MORE OF A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH WHILE GFS ENDS UP WITH THE UPPER HIGH FURTHER NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC FEATURES. STILL WARM AND HUMID AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEEK FOR RAIN CHANCES.
Mornin Bap..South Florida and Texas might get a good soaking and some wind.24.48.72.84.Total Precip..84 hours.
I had a feeling that the area by bermuda would be recognized by the NHC. It looked like it was trying to form into something subtropical yesterday, but someone said it was a tropical wave. :/
Quoting bigwes6844:
One word is WOW!! Look at the BOC! got a little off africa and the atlantic ocean off the NC coast. Check out the Western Pacific too something is brewing out there very soon to left of the typhoon
East to tell the MJO is in town.
Happy Father's Day! Good morning, everyone.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I had a feeling that the area by bermuda would be recognized by the NHC. It looked like it was trying to form into something subtropical yesterday, but someone said it was a tropical wave. :/
i don't think whoever it was understood what u were talking about, and was likely referring to the feature now SE of Jamaica, which is indeed a Twave. The yellow circled feature passed through and to the north of The Bahamas on Friday as a trough. We got some spectacular wx from it, too.
Link
Good Morning
Might be an omega block in ten days..The last time the GFS predicted this it did not materialize.
Quoting BahaHurican:
i don't think whoever it was understood what u were talking about, and was likely referring to the feature now SE of Jamaica, which is indeed a Twave. The yellow circled feature passed through and to the north of The Bahamas on Friday as a trough. We got some spectacular wx from it, too.

I wouldn't have expected that he'd not understand me.
I put the latitude and longitude.
The models have been showing this becoming sub-tropical in a few days, we have to watch it as well.

NAO staying negative..This will change things a bit if it continues.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The models have been showing this becoming sub-tropical in a few days, we have to watch it as well.


Good looking storm.
GFS phase diagrams.


CMC


Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I wouldn't have expected that he'd not understand me.
I put the latitude and longitude.
Well, it was pretty easy for me to recognise that what u were talking about wasn't a Twave... just wouldn't have one that far north at this time of year... plus even the shape of the feature would have suggested non-tropical....
Re: 571

Hmmm... both GFS and CMC expecting this to make a serious run for subtropical or fully tropical at some point in its life... Maybe we will get Chris and Debby after all...

Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, it was pretty easy for me to recognise that what u were talking about wasn't a Twave... just wouldn't have one that far north at this time of year... plus even the shape of the feature would have suggested non-tropical....
Maybe he thought I put 7N 30W?
I wouldn't see how.
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC Jun 17 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This came out of nowhere:



The SPC specifically mentioned a threat for strong tornadoes, so we could have ourselves an outbreak today.


what?

that was a wimpy 15% hatched area and wimpy worded slight yesterday.
guess i should still pay attention to my severe weather
no more 15%



VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND SPEED INCREASES ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT. THE ORIENTATION
OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
FAVOR INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE/LARGE BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT.
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE MARGINALLY LARGE FOR
SIGNIFICANT AND LONG-LIVED TORNADOES...THOUGH INCREASING SRH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INITIALLY DISCRETE STORM MODES DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR
TORNADOES IN ROUGHLY THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE
...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO GROW INTO A LARGER CLUSTER BY LATE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS SW MN...AND THEN CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD OVERNIGHT
WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.


300-400 srh
CMC has flooding for the panhandle.
Good Morning Guchol and happy fathers day to all..



Quoting hydrus:
CMC has flooding for the panhandle.


I sure hope not as ongoing repairs are straining local rescorces to the max..
No FEMA grants for Escambia county because of not meeting the strucual drainage damage critira of $25 million threshold...
Their still using volunteers and prisioner labor to repair the flooding rain damage...
The mosquitos are loving it..


that low in the atl north atlantic is not the same one that is there now.

no chance in the past two runs for chris to beat the high.




on a more local note, the heat is coming to the SE next week, mid 90s by next sunday.
Quoting pcola57:


I sure hope not as ongoing repairs are straining local rescorces to the max..
No FEMA grants for Escambia county because of not meeting the strucual drainage damage critira of $25 million threshold...
When I read posts like this I get angry. They should help the flood victims when it is due to heavy rainfall events. I can relate to FEMA when people rebuild homes on the coast and then expect the government to help them, but this is different. There were no warnings like there would have been if it was an approaching storm or hurricane. This happened quickly with little or no warning at all. I want to say something else but wont for fear of being banned.
Guchol is getting larger.
Quoting hydrus:
When I read posts like this I get angry. They should help the flood victims when it is due to heavy rainfall events. I can relate to FEMA when people rebuild homes on the coast and then expect the government to help them, but this is different. There was no warnings like there would have been if it was an approaching storm or hurricane. This happened quickly with little or no warning at all. I want to say something else but wont for fear of being banned.


maybe FEMA thinks the damage is not 25mil so local goverments and charities and other organizations can take care of it.
FEMA seems to be more concerned with disasters nobody locally can comfortably pay for.

The primary purpose of FEMA is to coordinate the response to a disaster that has occurred in the United States and that overwhelms the resources of local and state authorities.

Recently we have become very dependent on them, but they do not seen to think this is overwhelming enough.

The state of florida and escambia county will have to help the people themselves
Quoting hydrus:
When I read posts like this I get angry. They should help the flood victims when it is due to heavy rainfall events. I can relate to FEMA when people rebuild homes on the coast and then expect the government to help them, but this is different. There was no warnings like there would have been if it was an approaching storm or hurricane. This happened quickly with little or no warning at all. I want to say something else but wont for fear of being banned.


Thank you for compassionate response Hydrus and GeorgiaStormz
We here really appreciate it.
We might have something out of this in the next day or so.
Quoting pcola57:


Thank you for compassionate response Hydrus..
We here really appreciate it.


NP. Best of wishes with recovery, i remember how it was after we had floods up here.

how bad is the damage down there?

neighborhoods swept away?

whole blocks condemned?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Guchol has a weird structure, and it does not look like an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.


Is weird bad or good?
Good Morning and a really happy father's day to all the fathers on here.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We might have something out of this in the next day or so.

I can imagine so.


Central Caribbean



NW ATL



Bay of Campeche

Good Morning and Happy Father's Day to all the Dads on the Blog. Looking at all of that convection brewing in the Caribbean south of Jamaica and Hispanola all I can say is thank God the sheer levels remain high down there.

The models did not forecast development of this feature but did forecast plenty of moisture and rain for these parts and potentially problematic flooding issues.

Here is the Caribbean NCEP forecast discussion from Friday; they nailed it:


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

FARTHER EAST...MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO.WHICH WILL SUSTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE CYCLE.MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING RAPID CHANGE OF PATTERN AS DEEP TROUGH ESTABLISHES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL PUT A DENT ON THE SUBSIDENCE
CAP INVERSION OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THESE ISLES. FURTHERMORE...ARRIVING
TROPICAL WAVE IS AIDING ITCZ MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WET PATTERN WILL RAPIDLY ESTABLISH TO AFFECT WINDWARD ISLES THROUGH 36 HRS AND THEN PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA. OVER WINDWARD ISLES..EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO PEAK BY 36 HRSWITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 5MM/DAY. OVER PUERTO RICO...ACCUMULATIONS WILL PEAK THROUGH 36-84 HRS WHERE MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF 20-35MM/DAY IS EXPECTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION.strong>GREATEST CONCERN IS OVER HISPANIOLA BY LATE CYCLE AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS. WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE SYSTEM INDUCES LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. BEST AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE ISLAND WHILE SLOWLY PROGRESSING WESTWARD INTO JAMAICA/SOUTHERN CUBA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO START INTENSIFYING BY 48-60 HRS TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-35MM/DAY. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY 60-108 HRS. BY 60-84 HRS EXPECT LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY...TO AFFECT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. AMOUNTS ARE TO PEAK BY 84-108 HRS WHERE MAXIMA COULD EXCEED 100MM/DAY. THIS IS ALSO A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION THAT REQUIRES MONITORING.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


how bad is the damage down there?

neighborhoods swept away?

whole blocks condemned?


Most homeowners have flood policies in place as required by both state and federal statutes...however our problems are with sewage,water quality,drainage,sub-division/county road washouts,really structural issues.
Many people here are elderly and retired military and have overwhelming medical conditions...so you can imaging their plight...
Red Cross is still in some areas and so are state guard..
Nobody here wants a handout,just a hand..
God Bless them..
Quoting BahaHurican:


Central Caribbean



NW ATL



Bay of Campeche



BIG BLOB
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe FEMA thinks the damage is not 25mil so local goverments and charities and other organizations can take care of it.
FEMA seems to be more concerned with disasters nobody locally can comfortably pay for.
I see your point, but the economy is in poor shape, and according to FEMA mission statement, this is what they are about...What We Do

Overview

FEMA Mission

FEMA mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

DISASTER. It strikes anytime, anywhere. It takes many forms -- a hurricane, an earthquake, a tornado, a flood, a fire or a hazardous spill, an act of nature or an act of terrorism. It builds over days or weeks, or hits suddenly, without warning. Every year, millions of Americans face disaster, and its terrifying consequences.

On March 1, 2003, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) became part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS).Who We Are

FEMA History
FEMA is not the team, but part of a team. That team includes federal partners, state, tribal and local officials, the private sector, non-profits and faith-based groups, and the general public.
Quoting pcola57:


Most homeowners have flood policies in place as required by both state and federal statutes...however our problems are with sewage,water quality,drainage,sub-division/county road washouts,really strucual issues.
Many people here are elderly and retired military and have overwhelming medical conditions...so you can imaging their plight...
Red Cross is still in some areas and so are state guard..
God Bless them..
How common is this type of flooding there, pcola? I don't remember hearing a whole lot about this in the past.

I also know that former swamplands [or land along coastal waterways] are prone to flooding in wet wx patterns, and often when housing was built in these areas in the past there wasn't sufficient preparation for this kind of situation. I've seen similar impacts here in Nassau.

Discussion of possible BOC development by Crown Weather:

Link
That 10% extra-tropical feature is basically also helping cause training showers across Hispanola. They may have some severe flooding in Haiti over the next few days..... Could be worse than a fast moving tropical storm for those poor folks.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We might have something out of this in the next day or so.


nope... and if did, so what. It will be a fish storm...
Quoting BahaHurican:
How common is this type of flooding there, pcola? I don't remember hearing a whole lot about this in the past.

I also know that former swamplands [or land along coastal waterways] are prone to flooding in wet wx patterns, and often when housing was built in these areas in the past there wasn't sufficient preparation for this kind of situation. I've seen similar impacts here in Nassau.



Yes there are greedy contractors that develop in hazardous flood areas and sell those tracts to the people who don't do their homework...
And yes flooding has occured like this(1934 is one example)..
But due to the spawl and county burden to maintain areas that were not developed ( too much Federal dollars went into this area because of Hurricaine Ivan...although needed but not regulated properly)
we as tax payers are really maxed out..I own property other than my home..but not for long I'm afraid as I just can't afford it anymore..It was to be for a home for my daughter but she will have to make it the best way she can..she will be OK but so many others won't be..
Guchol eye is shrinking.
Quoting hydrus:
Guchol eye is shrinking.

T numbers say he's weakening steadily but it doesn't look like it.
Quoting pcola57:


Yes there are greedy contractors that develop in hazardous flood areas and sell those tracts to the people who don't do their homework...
And yes flooding has occured like this(1934 is one example)..
But due to the spawl and county burden to maintain areas that were not developed ( too much Federal dollars went into this area because of Hurricaine Ivan...although needed but not regulated properly)
we as tax payers are really maxed out..I own property other than my home..but not for long I'm afraid as I just can't afford it anymore..It was to be for a home for my daughter but she will have to make it the best way she can..she will be OK but so many others won't be..
Seems this type of flooding isn't all that common... so the kind of measures that may have been needed might not have been implemented during the dry years. Unfortunately that is a common story.... and our understanding of these longer term wx pattern is still in the developmental stages even today. :o(

If the overall economy, or even the local economy along the Gulf coast, was stronger, the FEMA help might not be as needed. Maybe some reconsiderations or re-evaluations will be made.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

T numers say he's weakening staedily but it doesn't look like it.
Looks healthy. It should weaken soon tho. EWRC is probable.
.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Discussion of possible BOC development by Crown Weather:

Link
is that there forecast or a copy of somebody elses
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY
WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A STRONG U/L TROUGH IN THE MAIN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. RIDES OVER AND SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THE U/L RIDE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. GFS AND ECMWF COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ANY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEING OVER THE SOUTHWEST OR WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE U/L RIDGE
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY HOT CONDITIONS...WITH
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING. THE U/L RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS HOW LONG WILL
THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS.



Yeah, we are screwed, I've never seen this much dry weather last this long in June, or in any rainy season month, ever.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Seems this type of flooding isn't all that common... so the kind of measures that may have been needed might not have been implemented during the dry years. Unfortunately that is a common story.... and our understanding of these longer term wx pattern is still in the developmental stages even today. :o(

If the overall economy, or even the local economy along the Gulf coast, was stronger, the FEMA help might not be as needed. Maybe some reconsiderations or re-evaluations will be made.



I sure hope so BAHA..
The "Good 'OL Boy" system is still in charge here...
If you know somebody then you can get something done...
Thank you all for listening to me this AM..
Gotta go for now...
BBL
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

T numbers say he's weakening steadily but it doesn't look like it.

JTWC doesn't think so either, the new advisory keeps him at 130kts, though it's forecast to weaken soon. More importantly the new track forecast has shifted west significantly.
We've had our own share of problems with flooding here, especially where heavy rains have resulted in road bed flooding that has caused massive / extensive potholes. Luckily for us the rainfall pattern last month was sporadic enough to keep flooding from becoming more widespread, and we've had a bit of a break in the first part of June. With the MJO headed back our way, though, who knows what may happen...
Quoting cedarparktxguy:


nope... and if did, so what. It will be a fish storm...


it could take the name chris and make the gulf storm be debby.
Can someone post the TCHP map please?.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

JTWC doesn't think so either, the new advisory keeps him at 130kts, though it's forecast to weaken soon. More importantly the new track forecast has shifted west significantly.
Imagery on the track?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Imagery on the track?

The previous one had it sliding just east of Tokyo... Now it's well inland

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Whatever that is off of Vietnam looks like it's trying to be something...
Quoting cedarparktxguy:


nope... and if did, so what. It will be a fish storm...

Your point?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The previous one had it sliding just east of Tokyo... Now it's well inland

Oh dear... that not good....

Quoting Jedkins01:
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY
WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A STRONG U/L TROUGH IN THE MAIN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. RIDES OVER AND SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THE U/L RIDE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. GFS AND ECMWF COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ANY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEING OVER THE SOUTHWEST OR WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE U/L RIDGE
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY HOT CONDITIONS...WITH
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUING. THE U/L RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS HOW LONG WILL
THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS.



Yeah, we are screwed, I've never seen this much dry weather last this long in June, or in any rainy season month, ever.
This is been happening for a few years now. I have seen droughts on the west coast, but not like what has been going on. The backward pattern as we always called it has been more dominant. This certainly is not normal.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Your point?
I read that comment and thought... OBviously not a person who frequents this blog.... lol...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
is that there forecast or a copy of somebody elses


I always have looked to them as theirs exclusivly.
Well after researching on my own..that TCHP looks to be on the high side in the northern caribbean.It's continuing to rise in the gulf.Warm water extends down mighty deep.
Has potential.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

T numbers say he's weakening steadily but it doesn't look like it.
Shows more in the big picture. [See 617.] The weakening is more of a decrease in strong winds from the outside.

Gotta run... l8r all...
Quoting cedarparktxguy:


nope... and if did, so what. It will be a fish storm...


And I should care why?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has potential.

If you look at it real close it looks like a pac man that's about to take a chomp out of something.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Can someone post the TCHP map please?.


Caribbean is boiling.



GOM is warming.



Whole Atlantic

Quoting stormpetrol:

hey stormpetrol the vorts are getting stronger at 925,850,700, and 500 we need to keep an eye on that Low pressure
Quoting washingtonian115:
Can someone post the TCHP map please?.

It is much higher than this time last season.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I always have looked to them as theirs exclusivly.
Crown Weather has always been quite reliable and decent before some of these bloggers were even around here. I would be surprised if Crown Weather plagiarized or copied someones forecast material, but certainly cant rule out that it did not happen. If someone said the Sun will rise tomorrow and ten minutes later I say the exact same thing am I plagiarizing..hhhaaaa !
It begins.

There is three possible areas where the chance of tropical mischief can occur one is that the low pressure area from the remnants of Carlotta makes its way to the BOC which it spins up and move north especially with the help of the curvature of the coastline in the BOC.

The next one is the moisture in the central caribbean moves in the NW caribb where it meets up with some nice upper ridging that form when the rigde over Panama meets with the one in the eastern gulf thus help it the develop

Finally, the AOI near bermuda becomes the subtropical/tropical development the models have been hinting at early last week. There is a pocket of low shear thats sit almost on top of it so it could develop within the next 48-96 hours the NHC is predicting a 10% chance of development I would put it at 20% within the next 48 hours.


Quoting hydrus:
Crown Weather has always been quite reliable and decent before some of these bloggers were even around here. I would be surprised if Crown Weather plagiarized or copied someones forecast material, but certainly cant rule out that it did not happen. If someone said the Sun will rise tomorrow and ten minutes later I say the exact same thing am I plagiarizing..hhhaaaa !
Thank you guys for the maps.

I've visited crown weather way before I knew this blog existed.I have found them to be quite reliable and have supported them for years now.
Oh boy, I'd hate to be in the Caribbean right now.

dran wind shear is still 30 too 50kt in the Caribbean


Quoting washingtonian115:
Thank you guys for the maps.

I've visited crown weather way before I knew this blog existed.I have found them to be quite reliable and have supported them for years now.
I forget the guy's name from CW who used to post on the blog fairly regularly for a while... used to have some pretty sensible comments.

Russ?
guchol looks more symmetrical and the eye is clearing out more, but it is nearing its end,
Good thing it is going to hit japan further south than the previous track
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh boy, I'd hate to be in the Caribbean right now.

Not sailing, anyway. lol
The monsoon trough has easily moved at least 5 degrees northward since the MJO entered phase 8:

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
guchol looks more symmetrical and the eye is clearing out more, but it is nearing its end,
Good thing it is going to hit japan further south than the previous track

Still not a good thing. :P

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Still not a good thing. :P



it is better than hitting tokyo

best would be out to see.

okinawa is in trouble
Good morning everyone, and a Happy Father's Day to all my fellow dads on the blog!
650. wxmod
Just south of Japan. Modis satellite photo today.

Quoting Tazmanian:
dran wind shear is still 30 too 50kt in the Caribbean



shear is expected to drop to 5-10kt in the SW area and 15-25 in the NW and Central areas still 30-50kt over cuba and bahamas and NE area now this is expected within the next 24-48 hours
652. beell
Quoting Levi32:
The monsoon trough has easily moved at least 5 degrees northward since the MJO entered phase 8:



Nah, I think it's not a tick over 4.5°
;-)
Nah, I think it's not a tick over 4.5
;-)



Crown weather said the same about a half hour ago.

: )
Leave crown weather alone.Maybe they agree on the same thing.Geesh you all treat the kid like a celeb..
627 washingtonian115: Well after researching on my own... that TCHP looks to be on the high side in the northern caribbean. It's continuing to rise in the gulf. Warm water extends down mighty deep.

Comparing equivalent Julian*dates for the hottest SST&Depth26 year to this (leap)year
- - - - - - - - 16June2010 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 16June2010 Depth26degreesCelsius

- - - - - - - - 15June2012 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 15June2012 Depth26degreesCelsius


* Julian days are sequentially numbered 1thru365 with the last day being 366 on leap years.
The hazards map has the Bahamas, Western Caribbean and the the Central and Eastern Gulf as locations most probable for cyclone development, not the west..
Quoting BahaHurican:
I forget the guy's name from CW who used to post on the blog fairly regularly for a while... used to have some pretty sensible comments.

Russ?
Rob Lightbown.
12 minutes till greek polls close.
im not too worried about syriza winning.
for your money's sake, i'd better be right.

new gfs coming out too
Quoting aspectre:
627 washingtonian115: Well after researching on my own... that TCHP looks to be on the high side in the northern caribbean. It's continuing to rise in the gulf. Warm water extends down mighty deep.

Comparing equivalent Julian*dates for the hottest Depth26&SST year to this (leap)year
16June2010

15June2012

16June2010

15June2012


* Julian days are sequentially numbered 1thru365 with the last day being 366 on leap years.
.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Who's Julian?.


Gaius Julius Caesar

Quoting washingtonian115:
Who's Julian?.

Julius Caesar.

subtropical?

A low in the BOC by 75hrs.
little faster, so far, may beat the high
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Gaius Julius Caesar
Oh.Lol.I though he was referring it as my name or something(hits self with a frying pan?)
Quoting hydrus:
The hazards map has the Bahamas, Western Caribbean and the the Central and Eastern Gulf as locations most probable for cyclone development, not the west..

Look at the day that map was made though: June 12th. That makes it nearly a week old.
But look at the date of that map lol it says june 13th also it says week two
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Look at the day that map was made though: June 12th. That makes it nearly a week old.
look at the date on the bottom map.
#666.

The anti-post?

669. beell
Quoting Patrap:
Nah, I think it's not a tick over 4.5
;-)



Crown weather said the same about a half hour ago.

: )


As we have been talking about for a while now, tropical development is still favored in the western Gulf of Mexico later next week and into next weekend. The monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific and western Caribbean will be slowly swelling northward with time into next week, and the fact that Hurricane Carlotta in the eastern Pacific is moving close to the Mexican coastline instead of out to sea illustrates that this is already beginning to occur.
Levi, June 15


We had that conversation yesterday, well least some did.

I just sat bac and chuckled.
This is a lot of upward motion.
672. beell
.
NOLA disco,

Previous discussion... /issued 329 am CDT sun Jun 17 2012/


Discussion...
overall...a fairly quiet weather regime will be in place for the
forecast area through the week. A weak middle/upper level trough off
the Louisiana coast with a subtle surface reflection will shift
west to Texas by Monday. Drier air from the east will continue to
encroach upon the forecast area. As a result...the best rain
chances will again be confined to the southwest quadrant of the
forecast area today...nearest the weak area of low pressure. As
we move into the work week...weak ridging aloft and a prominent
ridge at the surface will prevail with only small rain chances
expected. Temperatures will warm two or three degree during the
period...but will average close to normal. Rain chances may inch
up a bit toward the end of the work week and into next weekend if
an area of low pressure develops or moves into the southwest Gulf
with a wave moving across the central Gulf bringing increased
moisture northward as the models have indicated for several runs
now. However...the latest trend with the medium range model runs
has been toward a drier solution for the central Gulf Coast region
for the end of the week with ridging remaining in control and the
best moisture remaining to the south and west of the region. 11
>>
Lol i didnt see a comment similar to what i was saying until i posted lol

676. wxmod
Japan weather modification pre-hurricane of biblical proportions. This is what it takes to destroy a hurricane, thousands of jet flights and tons of mining waste. The power of dust.

677. beell
.
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
15.55N/73.75W
The wgom is still favored for development...imo
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Gaius Julius Caesar



Sorry, wrong Julian. The Julian date was not named for Julius Caesar.
Quoting hydrus:
look at the date on the bottom map.

It was still made a week ago, making it outdated. A week ago it appeared that development could take place in the west Caribbean. Now it looks to be the Bay of Campeche.
Quoting Patrap:
tickle.the.t.w.
Quoting Tazmanian:
dran wind shear is still 30 too 50kt in the Caribbean




Yea, however the upper ridge in the Gulf should meet with the one over Panama with the help of latent heat produce by the moisture and the MJO over the caribbean and the lowering of pressure just check out the vorticity map in the sw caribbean. Looks like a low could spin up and slip underneath those tstorms in the central caribbean.
inre comment656... I reduced the sizes of the SST and Depth26 maps by 1/2, then stacked them side-by-side for easier comparisons (within the same area as 1 map)
Seems like they're better for color comparisons, but the writing is unreadable.

So what do you guys think? Keep them at reduced size or return them to a readable size?
Would adding links to full-sized maps make the reduced size maps acceptably better?
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, wrong Julian. The Julian date was not named for Julius Caesar.


Then my world history teacher in Freshman year must have been wrong...
Julian calendar
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



The Julian calendar is a reform of the Roman calendar introduced by Julius Caesar in 46 BC (708 AUC). It took effect the following year, 45 BC (709 AUC), and continued to be used as the civil calendar in some countries into the 20th century.

The calendar has a regular year of 365 days divided into 12 months, as listed in Table of months. A leap day is added to February every four years.

The Julian year is, therefore, on average 365.25 days long.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Then my world history teacher in Freshman year must have been wrong...


Grothar would know, he turned 13 when it happened.. ;)
Quoting aspectre:
inre comment656... I reduced the sizes of the SST and Depth26 maps by 1/2, then stacked them side-by-side for easier comparisons.
Seems like they're better for color comparisons, but the writing is unreadable.

So what do you guys think? Keep them at reduced size or return them to a readable size?
Would adding links to full-sized maps make the reduced size maps acceptably better?


They look fine to me. I just CTRL + and I can read them.
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
33.11N/65.71W
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Then my world history teacher in Freshman year must have been wrong...


He/she was wrong. There is a difference between the Julian Calendar and the Julian date.

The Julian date was invented by Julius Scaliger, and actually named it after his father.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Grothar would know, he turned 13 when it happened.. ;)


Twit!
Quoting Patrap:
Julian calendar
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



The Julian calendar is a reform of the Roman calendar introduced by Julius Caesar in 46 BC (708 AUC). It took effect the following year, 45 BC (709 AUC), and continued to be used as the civil calendar in some countries into the 20th century.

The calendar has a regular year of 365 days divided into 12 months, as listed in Table of months. A leap day is added to February every four years.

The Julian year is, therefore, on average 365.25 days long.


That is not the same as the Julian date, that is the Julian Calendar. Not the same thing.

The number of days since noon on January 1, -4712, i.e., January 1, 4713 BC (Seidelmann 1992). It was proposed by J. J. Scaliger in 1583, so the name for this system derived from Julius Scaliger, not Julius Caesar. Scaliger defined Day One was as a day when three calendrical cycles converged. The first cycle was the 28 year period over which the Julian calendar repeats days of the week (the so-called solar number). After 28 years, all the dates fall on the same days of the week, so one need only buy 28 calendars. (Note that since the Gregorian calendar was adopted the calendar now takes 400 years to repeat.) The second was the 19 year golden number cycle over which phases of the moon almost land on the same dates of the year. The third cycle was the 15 year ancient Roman tax cycle of Emperor Constantine (the so-called indiction). Scaliger picked January 1, 4713 BC on the Julian calendar as Day One. The three cycles coincide every 7980 years (Tøndering).




JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Just skyped with my son in Okinawa. Kadena AFB is at TCCOR 2. Still hoping it keeps turning north as forecast. I know they are prepared but different now that my son is there.Reminded him of Ike and how rough it was and told him this is going to be worse. His dorm is 1/4 mile from beach on the first floor. He just plays it off and says "Mom it will be fine!" Thanks for keeping me updated on this blog!! Prayers out to all the servicemen and women on Kadena!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was still made a week ago, making it outdated. A week ago it appeared that development could take place in the west Caribbean. Now it looks to be the Bay of Campeche.


It is possible something could develop in both areas. A number of low pressure areas are expected to form in both areas. Don't lose hope.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was still made a week ago, making it outdated. A week ago it appeared that development could take place in the west Caribbean. Now it looks to be the Bay of Campeche.
Well then technically it was made three and a half days ago, which means it was made half a week ago..lol
There are 9 US Bases on Okinawa..they are very Typhoon savvy folks as I served there in the USMC at Camp Hansen.
New Entry:

"Mark"..


LOL
Quoting washingtonian115:
Leave crown weather alone.Maybe they agree on the same thing.Geesh you all treat the kid like a celeb..
Hey, if we can't tease our own, who can we tease... LOL

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Rob Lightbown.
Yeah, Rob - I got the R right, anyway... pretty cool guy, IIRC...

And Hellooo, stormwatcherCI... was just wondering what was up with u...

Quoting aspectre:
inre comment656... I reduced the sizes of the SST and Depth26 maps by 1/2, then stacked them side-by-side for easier comparisons.
Seems like they're better for color comparisons, but the writing is unreadable.

So what do you guys think? Keep them at reduced size or return them to a readable size?
Would adding links to full-sized maps make the reduced size maps acceptably better?


I like what you did. Everything is better with a link to the original.
Quoting hydrus:
This is been happening for a few years now. I have seen droughts on the west coast, but not like what has been going on. The backward pattern as we always called it has been more dominant. This certainly is not normal.


Yeah, it is starting to scare me a little...
I'm not buying this BOC storm yet. That should end in the EPAC. The sheared Atlantic blob may pull out a little sooner than I thought but still pulling trough & moisture over Cuba & such like I mentioned. Still like the SW Caribbean blob. Nice blob there now. That may twist abit but fail to close. That's the drowning I was talking about for Cuba the other day..I'll add Haiti, most of DR & Jamaica to that..

The actual SW Caribbean blob I'm expecting should get going in a few days, it could die over the Yucatan like the last one or become something..
Hello everyone just popping in our low in the SW caribbean looking good so far
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm not buying this BOC storm yet. That should end in the EPAC. The sheared Atlantic blob may pull out a little sooner than I thought but still pulling trough & moisture over Cuba & such like I mentioned. Still like the SW Caribbean blob. Nice blob there now. That may twist abit but fail to close. That's the drowning I was talking about for Cuba the other day..I'll add Haiti, most of DR & Jamaica to that..

The actual SW Caribbean blob I'm expecting should get going in a few days, it could die over the Yucatan like the last one or become something..


Hmmm very good explanation of the tropical mischief Skyepony.


Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hello everyone just popping in our low in the SW caribbean looking good so far


Hey man, how's it going. Look like the tropical mess in the caribbean have a better chance of development than the BOC solution by some of the models. The low in the sw carribbean should move north as the monsoonal trough lifts a litte bit north as well thus absorbing the convection and organizing slowly just southeast of the Yucatan then move north in the gulf where there is some nice upper ridging (<10 knots of shear) and develop.