WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricane Carlotta bears down on Mexico's Pacific coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:10 PM GMT on June 15, 2012

Hurricane Carlotta has steadily intensified today as it heads northwest towards the Mexican coast east of Acapulco. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, solid eyewall with cold cloud-tops, and good low-level spiral banding. Carlotta may be undergoing rapid intensification, thanks to favorable sea surface temperatures near 30°C (86°F) and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. A hurricane hunter mission is en-route, and will arrive at the storm near 2pm EDT on Friday to see how strong Carlotta has become. Carlotta's rain bands have already moved over the coast of Mexico a few hundred miles east of Acapulco, as seen on Puerto Ánoel radar.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Carlotta.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Carlotta from the Puerto Ánoel radar.

Forecast for Carlotta
Carlotta is likely to continue to strengthen as it approaches the western coast of Mexico east of Acapulco. As a large portion of the hurricane's circulation moves over the mountains of Mexico on Saturday morning, steady weakening should occur. Heavy rains from Carlotta will be the storm's main threat, and these rains will steadily progress westwards along the coast, arriving at Acapulco by Saturday morning. With rainfall amounts of 6 - 10 inches possible along the track of Carlotta, the potential for dangerous flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern all along the coast affected by Carlotta.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The GFS model is predicting that some of the moisture and energy from Carlotta could move into the Gulf of Mexico next week and form a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression, but this solution is unlikely.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
Quoting BDAwx:
I dunno if anyone's seen this yet - from Mexico weather service, a graph of wind gusts at Puerto Angel.


That's about a 117mph gust, pretty good for a Category 1 hurricane.
Moisture from Carlotta now reaching the BOC, while increased moisture is noted in the WCARB.
1004. ncstorm
The Euro Ensembles also has the Low in the BOC..



Im out for a while but welcome to all bloggers..new and old! See you all later

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 161431
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 99.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
1006. wxmod
Chess match: Japan vs Super Typhoon Guchol. Japan is deciding on a move.

Quoting ncstorm:
The Euro Ensembles also has the Low in the BOC..



Im out for a while but welcome to all bloggers..new and old! See you all later


Not often you see the ensembles more interested it something than the operational runs.
Poll Time
Will Chris form in the BOC?
A. Yes
B. No
C. Too soon to tell

Will Debby form in the next week or two?
A. Yes
B. No
C. Too soon to tell

If Chris does form in the BOC, where will he hit at what strength?
A. Texas; Hurricane
B. Mexico; TS
C. Louisiana; Hurricane
D. Other

Give your opinions
I'd like to say A,C,A
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll Time
Will Chris form in the BOC?
A. Yes
B. No
C. Too soon to tell

Will Debby form in the next week or two?
A. Yes
B. No
C. Too soon to tell

If Chris does form in the BOC, where will he hit at what strength?
A. Texas; Hurricane
B. Mexico; TS
C. Louisiana; Hurricane
D. Other

Give your opinions
I'd like to say A,C,A


yes Chris may form too soon to say about Debby but a nice wave has came of the African coast looking very interesting in the upcoming weeks
Heating up the elements....

1011. pcola57
Note: JTWC calling Guchol a "Super Typhoon" now.

Quoting sunlinepr:

Nice wave!
Better cool down... 150mph

SAL doesn't look too bad.

Guchol is probably starting an EWRC right now... The eye has gotten smaller, and the storm is a little less organized overall... Still a monster though:



If this is the start of an EWRC it won't strengthen anymore since it's moving into less favorable conditions.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Guchol is probably starting an EWRC right now... The eye has gotten smaller, and the storm is a little less organized overall... Still a monster though



If this is the start of an EWRC it won't strengthen anymore since it's moving into less favorable conditions.

What? It's forecast to continue strengthening through Monday.

I know that storms which approach Japan's main islands are usually post-peak intensity. I sure hope Guchol doesn't buck any trends... it sure looks like the Okinawa area is going to get hit by a major, if not an actual cat 5.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Nice wave!

The 6z GFS showed a closed 1009mb low off Africa at the end of its run... Just an indication that it's getting closer to that time of year.
Link
GOM
Look at the BOC
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What? It's forecast to continue strengthening through Monday.


I know but if it's starting an EWRC, which I think it is, it will weaken. The intensity forecasts can't predict that kind of stuff. Personally I don't think conditions will allow it to strengthen much longer regardless... It's moving into much higher shear.
MMIC doesn't show any hints of an EWRC either.

Link
Caribb.
visible
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning!

We might just be witnessing a super typhoon real soon.. ..Isnt there some type of correlation of typhoons/Japan and hurricanes/US..some type of polar effect?
2004 was a bad year for Japan..Do I even have to mention what happened in the U.S?..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
MMIC doesn't show any hints of an EWRC either.


The last frame or two show the eye shrinking and possibly losing shape a little... I could easily be wrong of course.
1026. pcola57
Quoting sunlinepr:


That eye is incredible..
probably 100(?) miles of pure hell in there.
Come on shear and dry air!.Tear that Typhoon apart!!.I have friends in Tokyo.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Come on shear and dry air!.Tear that Typhoon apart!!.I have friends in Tokyo.


1030. wxmod
Africa dust today. MODIS

Quoting MAweatherboy1:


:(.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:





so marh for high wind shear lol
1034. wxmod
Quoting sunlinepr:


round 2
Quoting washingtonian115:
:(.
Quoting Tazmanian:



so marh for high wind shear lol

I thought it was much higher than that actually... Once it gets near Japan there's a ton of shear but before that it isn't too bad... There is dry air though, that's why there's much more convection on the south side of the system.
Quoting pcola57:


That eye is incredible..
probably 100(?) miles of pure hell in there.


Wave height should be 80 feet or higher.... a big chaos....

Very different of these conditions.... but maybe the same height (90ft. surfed)...

hey guys I just reviewed the rgb loop and there is a very strong but broad spin in the SW caribbean also noted on surface obs and 12Z surface map also has convection in the area needs to keep an eye on it
1038. pcola57
Metosat-9..Africa dust...not very much right now..

1039. Patrap
One cant build a tropical system by Blogging.

But we understand.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I just reviewed the rgb loop and there is a very strong but broad spin in the SW caribbean also noted on surface obs and 12Z surface map also has convection in the area needs to keep an eye on it

Oh, you mean the monsoon low? Yeah, it's there all the time. No threat to develop.
1041. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh you mean the monsoon low? Yeah, it's there all the time and never develops.


never?
1042. 7544
Quoting Patrap:
One cant build a tropical system by Blogging.

But we understand.



lol sure we can we have the knowledge we have the hopes, we have the power
Quoting beell:


never?

Never.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, you mean the monsoon low? Yeah, it's there all the time. No threat to develop.


well with the up coming moisture surge you can never rule out something to get going the sea surface temps are warm enough but wind shear needs to be a bit more conducive
1046. wxmod
Quoting pcola57:
Metosat-9..Africa dust...not very much right now..


If you can see it looking straight down, it's enough to reduce the lapse rate. It's possible to have a storm develop, but it will take a very deep low.
Lol GFS.

1048. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Never.


Not even when the monsoon trough becomes active in this part of the basin and begins to lift north?

Wow, who knew? Thanks!
Quoting beell:


Not even when the monsoon trough becomes active in this part of the basin and begins to lift north?

Wow, who knew? Thanks!

I was talking about the monsoon low in itself. :P
1050. LargoFl
1051. pcola57
African wave train starting to get going...here are some current images...



It wouldn't be surprising at all if Guchol does begin an EWRC sometime soon.
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
wow!!
Nice lil 'ol wave.Dry air cooler sst and shear will be waiting for it.Just something to look at for now.
1055. LargoFl
(news report,7 hours old).............Typhoon Guchol is forecast to strike Japan at about 13:00 GMT on 19 June.Data supplied by theUS Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfallwill benear32.7 N,136.1 E.Guchol is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around175 km/h (109 mph).Wind gusts in the area maybeconsiderably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofGuchol'sstrength (category 2)at landfall includes:
•Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal.
•Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings.
•Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down.
•Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
•Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center.
•Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
good day bloggers
hope it a good day
i am having morning coffee here
slept in a little today
the c storm is a depression
don't those mountains work wunders

lets have a scan see what
i can find to do next
Quoting Ameister12:
It wouldn't be surprising at all if Guchol does begin an EWRC sometime soon.

People of the Philippines have no idea how lucky they are right now. Guchol would of killed 100's and caused billions in peso's in destruction.
1058. Patrap
I,..?

LOL

I personally think it will be stronger than this
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good day bloggers
hope it a good day
i am having morning coffee here
slept in a little today
the c storm is a depression
don't those mountains work wunders

lets have a scan see what
i can find to do next

The C storm is a depression?
Huh?
Something maybe to keep an eye on in a few days time in my amateur opinion


Link


1062. Patrap
Carlotta was downgraded to a depression.

keep just likes to think he controls it though.

All in jest,..

I hope.
1063. LargoFl
Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Typhoon "BUTCHOY" (GUCHOL)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Saturday, 16 June 2012 Typhoon "BUTCHOY" has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a North Northwest direction.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 430 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes

Coordinates: 15.2°N, 128.6°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 160 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 195 kph
Movement: Moving North Northwest at 20 kph


Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday evening:
530 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Monday evening:
600 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes or at
220 km South of Okinawa, Japan
Tuesday morning:
750 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes or
in the vicinity of Okinawa, Japan



No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised



Typhoon "Butchoy" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over Luzon and Visayas especially over the western section which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15 - 25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao due to the big waves generated by the combined effects of Typhoon "Butchoy" and the Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.






Quoting Patrap:
Carlotta was downgraded to a depression.

keep just likes to think he controls it though.

All in jest,..

I hope.

Ah. Thanks
997 BDAwx: ...from Mexico weather service, a graph of wind gusts at Puerto Angel.
1002 CybrTeddy That's about a 117mph gust, pretty good for a Category 1 hurricane.

Cat.2 has MaximumSustainedWinds of 96to110mph(83to95knots)154to177kmh. Remarkably, HurricaneCarlotta maintained 90knot MaxSusWinds up its last position prior to landfall, and...

...remained a 70knot(81mph) Cat.1 as it passed by Pinotepa(PNO) ~4&1/2 hours after landfall.
The coastline dot SSWest of PUH is PortAngel, ~15miles(24kilometres) from H.Carlotta's path.

Copy&paste pno, pxm, puh, 14.5n96.2w-15.6n96.7w, 15.6n96.7w-16.4n97.9w, 15.6n96.7w-15.664n96.489w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information.

1057. AussieStorm 4:11 PM GMT on June 16, 2012 +0
Quoting Ameister12:
It wouldn't be surprising at all if Guchol does begin an EWRC sometime soon.

People of the Philippines have no idea how lucky they are right now. Guchol would of killed 100's and caused billions in peso's in destruction.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 7501


the japs will be just as lucky lower ssts screaming shear await the g storm approach
by the time it gets to tokyo rose it will be nothing of its former self

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1057. AussieStorm 4:11 PM GMT on June 16, 2012 +0
Quoting Ameister12:
It wouldn't be surprising at all if Guchol does begin an EWRC sometime soon.

People of the Philippines have no idea how lucky they are right now. Guchol would of killed 100's and caused billions in peso's in destruction.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 7501


the japs will be just as lucky lower ssts screaming shear await the g storm approach
by the time it gets to tokyo rose it will be nothing of its former self


Very true
1068. Patrap
Hey, Im not the phonetic police, but they are Japanese my Canadian Friend.


Tokyo Rose?

me tinks you living inna Bad WW-2 Movie


We dont use those terms, well since the mid 50's last I checked.
1069. LargoFl
i control nothing pat

just got a good eye

and some fancy computer screens
1071. Patrap
Yeah maybe..

But try working on that punctuation issue.

Sometimes we havent a clue with all the run on stuff.

1072. LargoFl
.......guchol storm surge..experimental
i have a guy named sam that lives in the building he even refers to himself as a jap just like iam a newf and you a southern yank
Ha ha..yankee...
1075. wxmod
A lot of arctic ice going Bye Bye

you mad

today pat

don't take it out

on me

iam just

the messenger

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
inre 1073 KEEPEROFTHEGATE

Well, I have Polish friends who amongst themselves refer to each other with the P-word, Jewish friends who amongst themselves refer to each other with the K-word, AfricanAmerican friends who amongst themselves...etc...
They'd still be mighty peeved if somebody*outside of their particular ethnic/religious/etc group referred to them that way.

* Including close friends, even though they usually won't mention it.
1079. ncstorm