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Spring 2012: most extreme season in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:08 PM GMT on June 08, 2012

Spring 2012 in the contiguous U.S. demolished the old records for hottest spring and most extreme season of any kind, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. With the warmest March, third warmest April, and second warmest May, the March - April - May spring season was 5.2°F above average--the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States. What's truly remarkable is the margin the old record was broken by--spring 2012 temperatures were a full 1°F above the previous most extreme season, the winter of 1999 - 2000. All-time seasonal temperature records are very difficult to break, and are usually broken by only a tenth of a degree. To see the old record crushed by a full degree is a stunning and unparalleled event in U.S. meteorological history.


Figure 1. Temperature rankings for spring 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Thirty-one states were record warm for the 3-month period, and an additional eleven states had top-ten warmth. Spring 2012 beat the previous record for hottest spring on record, set in 1910, by an remarkable 2°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

U.S. heat over the past 12 months: a one in half-a-million event
The U.S. record for hottest 12-month period fell for the second straight month in May. The June 2011 - May 2012 temperatures smashed the previous record by a startling 0.4°F, which is a huge margin to break a record by for a 1-year period. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Thirty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional ten states were top ten warm. Each of the 12 months from June 2011 through May 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 531,441. Thus, we should only see one more 12-month period so warm between now and 46,298 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as during the past 118 years. The unusual warmth was due, in part, to a La Niña event in the Pacific that altered jet stream patterns, keeping the polar jet stream much farther to the north than usual. However, it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 12 months could have occurred without a warming climate. Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations. Even if true (and the best science we have says that these stations were actually reporting temperatures that were too cool), there is no way that measurement errors can account for the huge margin by which U.S. temperature records have been crushed during the past 12-month, 5-month, and 3-month periods.




Figure 2. Three of the top ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.




Figure 3. The average temperature during January - May 2012 was the warmest on record: 5°F above the 20th century average for the period, and 1.3°F above the previous record set in 2000. January - May temperatures have been rising at about 1.8°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Second warmest May, warmest year-to-date period on record
May 2012 was the second warmest May in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Twenty-six states had a top-ten warmest May, and no states had a top-ten coolest May. The January - May 2012 period was the warmest January - May period since record keeping began in 1895, with temperatures 5°F above the 20th century average for the period. This broke the previous record set in 2000 by an unusually large margin--1.3°F.



Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March - April - May) shows that 2012 had the most extreme spring on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Most extreme spring and January - May period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the spring March - April - May period. This is more than twice the average value, and spring 2012 was the most extreme season of any kind in U.S. history. A list of the top five most extreme seasons since 1910, as computed using the CEI, show that two of the three most extreme seasons in U.S. history occurred in the past 12 months:

Spring 2012: 44%
Winter 1979: 42%
Summer 2011: 39%
Fall 1985: 39%
Spring 1934: 38%

Remarkably, 81% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during spring 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during spring was 18%, which was the 19th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were the 8th largest on record. The year-to-date January - May period was also the most extreme such period in U.S. history, with a CEI of 43%. Climate change theory predicts that, in general, the climate should warm, wet areas should get wetter, and dry areas should get drier. The spring 2012 Climate Extremes Index reflects this pattern.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. None of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic through June 15.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Climate Change Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

12Z GFS doesn't show anything interesting. In fact, I'm not sure if it even shows a tropical storm out of this.

Intensity doesn't really matter right now though.
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good morning everyone.Its raining cats and dogs here in Gulf Shores Ala.On vacation and nothing but rain.
and it will continue all the way into monday

Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Why would you be happy for almost 15 inches of rain? Seriously that is bad for a lot of residents already and its getting worse!!! I'll be happy with aleast 2 inches but near 15 inches I would take it more seriously as you can lose a home,car,family members,etc! If I was me I would take care of everything I can NOW!!!


low lying areas are getting flooded but remember we are the bayou....our land can deal with big water amounts unlike texas and out west where y'all have granite and hard soils....we have alot of loose soil, peat moss, so much plant material thick layers of mulch and alot of sand so although low lying areas are being flooded for a lot of us we need this.....
Quoting odinslightning:


yep im basically at the tillmans corner/mobile city line off of 90 and it has rained and rained and rained....rain was so hard last night the directv wouldn't work all night.....

Directv wouldn't work in conditions like that!Take care of yourself and family in this life threatening flooding event!
on average Mobile County gets more rainfall per year than Seattle, WA.....
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1033 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012

ALC097-091930-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120609T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MOBILE AL-
1033 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
ONE-THIRD OF MOBILE COUNTY BETWEEN COUNTY ROAD 59 AND THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE LINE...

AT 1032 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA AND RADAR ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
SHOW RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE WARNED AREA.

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND FIRST RESPONDERS ARE CONDUCTING WATER
RESCUES IN THE GUNN ROAD...MERWOOD COURT AND WAKEFIELD ROAD
AREAS. THIS IS AN EXTREME EVENT...NOT A TYPICAL FLASH FLOOD.


LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDTOWN MOBILE... WEST MOBILE... CODEN...
TILLMANS CORNER... THEODORE... TANNER WILLIAMS...
I10 AND I65... GRAND BAY... FOREST HILL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING SITUATION. YOU
SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL. STAY HOME UNLESS YOU ARE FORCED TO
EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER CROSSES A ROAD. TURN AROUND - DON`T DROWN!

NEVER TRY TO CROSS OR PLAY IN AN URBAN SPILLWAY OR FLOWING CREEK...
EVEN A SMALL ONE. URBAN FLASH FLOODING IS A MAJOR KILLER.

TO REPORT FLOODING...CALL (800) 284-9059.
Quoting odinslightning:


low lying areas are getting flooded but remember we are the bayou....our land can deal with big water amounts unlike texas and out west where y'all have granite and hard soils....we have alot of loose soil, peat moss, so much plant material thick layers of mulch and alot of sand so although low lying areas are being flooded for a lot of us we need this.....

But your getting way too much of a good thing already and worsening!!! Its expected to continue for the rest of the weekend!
Wow, nothing on the 12z GFS... You can't throw that solution out either, the 12z run is generally the best or second best of the four... It's far from set in stone that we'll get anything out of this potenial storm.
Quoting odinslightning:


hey your in west mobile...lol tillmans corner here....it's been raining straight through since early last night....rain is so heavy that the directv keeps going out because of signal interference.


I am not far from you..I live in the Skyline area...
Quoting AllyBama:


I am not far from you..I live in the Skyline area...


Dawes Rd. Area here, Gunn road just south of the airport is completely flooded. Water rescues underway
Say what you wanna say about JB but he did say a week ago that the next place to watch for developement would be the GOM between the 15th and 20th based on pattern recognition.
My grandparents just called my house from Pensacola, FL... They said their yard looks like a swimming pool... Very dangerous situation down there.
12z fails to develop a system. That doesn't surprise me as the GFS almost regularly drops systems as we get closer to the timeline and it's over 240 hours out. Pay attention to if the ECMWF keeps it or not.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
My grandparents just called my house from Pensacola, FL... They said their yard looks like a swimming pool... Very dangerous situation down there.

I'm in Warrington right at Bayou Grande... My street is flooded as well as all of the yards around me.
Although the 12z GFS is a good run it can have hiccups with it.Let's see if the 12Z CMC/ECMWF show the same and also the 12z GFS esmemble members.
I have a video of the flooding if someone wants to tell me how to embed a video
1017. TXCWC
12Z GFS DOES show the beginning of development at around 216hr but then appears to run the circulation directly into the Yucatan thus basically killing off Chris before he can really get going.The remaining energy appears to go through S. Florida and off the East Coast as well. That is what I am seeing anyway. I am a bit skeptical of this particular run but we shall see what the Euro says in an hour or two.

216hr


228hr
Also pay attention to the CMC as well.
What strikes me as unusual and suspect is how the GFS suddenly decides to split this system in two, that seems unrealistic to me.
broken link...
889. PlazaRed

check your WU mail
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Link


Your facebook post would need to be public for that to work.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Your facebook post would need to be public for that to work.


yea if I knew how to embed I would do that, a little help someone
Quoting TXCWC:
12Z GFS DOES show the beginning of development at around 216hr but then appears to run the circulation directly into the Yucatan thus basically killing off Chris before he can really get going.The remaining energy appears to go through S. Florida and off the East Coast as well. That is what I am seeing anyway. I am a bit skeptical of this particular run but we shall see what the Euro says in an hour or two.

216hr


228hr


Could end up just being another rain-maker for florida as suggested by todays 12z GFS. Always interesting to look at 200+hr model progs BUT not very useful if you ask me.
14-15 inches in Mobile today. Real fun! Slight rain right now. Seems to be more tropical mischief on the way for the gulf coast states?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What strikes me as unusual and suspect is how the GFS suddenly decides to split this system in two, that seems unrealistic to me.



Because it's 200 hours, there's a reason why meteorologists don't pay much attention to model forecasts 200+ hours out...
Very serious flash flooding in the Panhandle (Florida) area. I'm not there right now but I read the text WDE posted and this is looking very nasty up there. Anyone think South Florida will get hit by something similar this summer?
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Dawes Rd. Area here, Gunn road just south of the airport is completely flooded. Water rescues underway


I saw that. Some of my family members used to live on Gunn Road. Hopefully these rescues go without incident.
Quoting TXCWC:
12Z GFS DOES show the beginning of development at around 216hr but then appears to run the circulation directly into the Yucatan thus basically killing off Chris before he can really get going.The remaining energy appears to go through S. Florida and off the East Coast as well. That is what I am seeing anyway. I am a bit skeptical of this particular run but we shall see what the Euro says in an hour or two.

216hr


228hr


That's a mother of a ridge on the East Coast and a huge trough on the plains!
And I firmly believe Chris will develop. The atmosphere will be prime for it at around 10 days or so. Something about major rain events right before tropical development. Last 2 summers have been VERY dry, unusually dry. Not so this summer. Also, seasonally, our weather is 1 month ahead of schedule. July wet weather. That is what it feels like in the gulf right now. Sometimes you have to throw models, forecasting, etc. out the window and pay attention to history and precedent. It's common sense! The last time I remember it raining this much in the gulf states was 04-05. Combine that with season ahead of schedule (before el niño has chance to develop) and westward Bermuda high....Boom tropical development and landfalls.
1031. LargoFl
Quoting hurricane23:


Could end up just being another rain-maker for florida as suggested by todays 12z GFS. Always interesting to look at 200+hr model progs BUT not very useful if you ask me.


No. It won't just be a rainmaker.
On another note I'll be leaving to a trip to Chicago next sunday! Wonder what the weather will be when we drive all the way! Would be something if I ran into some nasty storms but I don't know the forecast this far out. :P
1034. LargoFl
EA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...SULTRY TODAY WITH SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...

CURRENT...DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS/SPRINKLES LEFTOVER
FROM EARLY MORNING PRECIP ARE BEATING A HASTY RETREAT TO THE N/NE.
WINDS IN THR PROCESS OF VEERING TO LIGHT SE-SSE AS TEMPS QUICKLY
RISE UP THROUGH THE 70S AND L80S. MORNING RAOBS SHOW VERY HEALTHY
MOISTURE PROFILE AS PWATS REMAIN A TENTH EITHER SIDE OF 2.0"...
WITH A NEAR-MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP THROUGH MID LEVEL (H50)
TEMPS OF -8C.

TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT WIDESPREAD EARLY-MID MORNING SUNSHINE
WILL GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU/CB BY LATE MORNING AND CONVECTION FROM
AROUND NOON ONWARD AS A MORE WELL-DEFINED ECSB DEVELOPS AND STARTS
PUSHING INLAND FAIRLY EARLY COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN/CONVECTION. SYNOPTICALLY FORCED ASCENT
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK...SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO END A FEW HRS AFTER SUNSET.

CURRENT FORECAST POPS AND TEMPS/WINDS LOOK TO BE ON THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TS AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
17Z-21Z AND INLAND 20Z-24Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
+TSRA WITH VERY LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST TO 30-40KT.

&&

.MARINE...SE WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15KT WITH SEAS AOB 3FT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
1035. LargoFl
10 day forecast for Chicago Ill..........Link
hit 11 inches, anyone have an ARK?
Have a nice weekend all, thought for today, is that a tropical wave @ 10n,50w. Pottery may have to duck again and Fl. maybe out of the drought game after the next few days,Talking to you Panhandle. Peace be with you.
1038. richroy
Since 6 AM in West Pensacola 15.39 inches of rain. Roads are a mess!! Home bound for the weekend.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
And I firmly believe Chris will develop. The atmosphere will be prime for it at around 10 days or so. Something about major rain events right before tropical development. Last 2 summers have been VERY dry, unusually dry. Not so this summer. Also, seasonally, our weather is 1 month ahead of schedule. July wet weather. That is what it feels like in the gulf right now. Sometimes you have to throw models, forecasting, etc. out the window and pay attention to history and precedent. It's common sense! The last time I remember it raining this much in the gulf states was 04-05. Combine that with season ahead of schedule (before el niño has chance to develop) and westward Bermuda high....Boom tropical development and landfalls.
And we all know what happened in 05...
1040. LargoFl
Pensacola flooding video...........Link
1041. K8eCane
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
My grandparents just called my house from Pensacola, FL... They said their yard looks like a swimming pool... Very dangerous situation down there.



Tell em to please watch out for snakes
Thanks but I'm wanting what it'll be like in OK,KS,NE,IA lol anyways thx again.
1043. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
Pensacola flooding video...........Link
....this is last august
1044. LargoFl
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Thanks but I'm wanting what it'll be like in OK,KS,NE,IA lol anyways thx again.
ok
1045. LargoFl
Mobile ALAbama road closings due to water on roadways..gee............Road Flooding:
•Dawes Road
•Three Notch Road from Mc Donald Road to Schillinger Road South
•Half Mile Road from Beverly Road to Bayou LaBatre - Irvington Highway
•HIGHWAY 90 THEODORE AREA TO THE STATE LINE UNDER WATER
OLD PASCAGOULA RD THEODORE AREA TO THE STATE LINE UNDER WATER
OLD PASCAGOULA RD/MCDONALD RD
GBAY WILMER RD @ BREIGHTLING ELEM SCHOOL
OLD PASCAGOULA RD RD/PECAN TERRACE
HIGHWAY 90/MCDONALD RD
EAGLE POINT @ THE BRIDGE /DAWES RD
OLD PASCAGOULA RD/SERENITY GARDENS
OLD PASCAGOULA RD/MARCH RD
DAWES RD/DAWES LANE
HIGHWAY 188/LAKELAND DR
"THE GOLDEN "POND OVERFLOWING ONTO MCDONALD RD
THREE NOTCH RD/MEADOW LAKE ELEM
BEN HAMILTON RD/DAWES RD
TWO MILE RD/ARGYLE RD
HWY 90/LOUIS TILLMAN RD
TWO MILE RD/ARGYLE RD
HWY 90/ W OF ST ELMO A'PORT
ARGYLE RD/ST ELMO CIRCLE
OLD PASCAGOULA RD/W OF RAMSEY RD
HWY 188/4 MILE RD
HWY 90/MARCH RD
MCFARLAND RD/BOE RD
MCFARLAND RD/SHILOH
HWY 90/BOE RD
4 MILE RD/IRV BAYOU HWY
TEW RD/PAUL WARDEN RD
HWY 188/ODD FELLOWS CEMETERY
IRV BLB HWY/BWTWN ATHENA & LOAS ST
BELLINGRATH RD/KIPLING STATION
THREENOTCH RD/LANGHAM DR

Quoting LargoFl:
ok

Maybe its too early to know what weather it'll be like but try to keep me updated in the days ahead!
1047. LargoFl
in Pensacola..Severe Flooding today...Link
Even without looking at the models they have given a hint at the pattern or atmosphere that will develop at that time.I still think Chris is a strong possibility.Maybe Debby could be squeezed out of this as well?.
Up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even without looking at the models they have given a hint at the pattern or atmosphere that will develop at that time.I still think Chris is a strong possibility.Maybe Debby could be squeezed out of this as well?.
The purple/pink "bullseye"
is right where I live...Serious rain.
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
southeastern Escambia County in northwest Florida...

* until 330 PM CDT

* at 1130 am CDT... emergency management officials reported
widespread flash flooding over the warned area and radar estimates
show storm rainfall totals of 6 to 13 inches had fallen across the
warned area. Extremely dangerous flash flooding is occurring in the
warned area.

This is a flash flood emergency for the extreme southern portions
of Escambia County Florida.

* Local law enforcement and first responders are conducting water
rescues in the Warrington... Myrtle Grove and Perdido park areas.
This is an extreme event... not a typical flash flood.


* Locations impacted include...
West Pensacola... Warrington... Pensacola...
Myrtle Grove... Goulding... Brent...
Bellview...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a very dangerous and life threatening flooding situation. You
should not attempt to travel. Stay home unless you are forced to
evacuate to higher ground.

A Flash Flood Warning means flooding is imminent or occurring. Seek
higher ground immediately. Do not drive or walk into areas where
water crosses a Road. Turn around - don't drown!

Never try to cross or play in an urban spillway or flowing creek...
even a small one. Urban flash flooding is a major killer.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even without looking at the models they have given a hint at the pattern or atmosphere that will develop at that time.I still think Chris is a strong possibility.Maybe Debby could be squeezed out of this as well?.


I completely agree. The atmosphere will be prime, wet, MJO pulse, Bermuda high shifting west. The only not so prime factor will be wind shear. It won't be at August levels.

Best analog for possible Chris is Hurricane Cindy in 05. She was upgraded later. Hit LA, NOLA area.... think Chris could be around the same area. Anywhere from Western LA to FL panhandle. Also...Dennis hit panhandle in early July. But I am not as confident about future Debby as I am Chris.
Quoting LargoFl:
Pensacola flooding video...........Link


Just amazing how fast people in sedans drive through water?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
The purple/pink "bullseye"
is right where I live...Serious rain.
At least you all are getting rain.It hasn't been raining like it should as of late.You better watch out this year for some tropical troubles as rains like this are the gate way for more tropical activity down the line.My are is a prime example from last year.Rained really hard and heavy throughout the spring/summer and their came Irene.

Post 1052. Cindy is a good analogue.A matter of fact I used that yesterday night when using the potential track future Chris will take.
Link

Link of Hurricane Cindy....analog I believe for possible track for Chris. And I believe he will be about same intensity. Strong TS - minimal Hurricane.
Its a TX storm j/k
GULF BREEZE proper up to 7.5 now and raining more in the Gulf headed our way. Now 11.5
Quoting odinslightning:


low lying areas are getting flooded but remember we are the bayou....our land can deal with big water amounts unlike texas and out west where y'all have granite and hard soils....we have alot of loose soil, peat moss, so much plant material thick layers of mulch and alot of sand so although low lying areas are being flooded for a lot of us we need this.....


What do you think Houston is
1060. Thrawst
Storm that produced 1" inch hail at Atlantis resort in Nassau yesterday:

1061. txjac
Quoting RitaEvac:


What do you think Houston is



At the moment ...way dry!
Hi Rita
cooking today, just mowed the back yard, sweating like water running over me
Going to Galveston now
12z ECMWF is running, but I won't be surprised if the model also drops this system. GFS might not pick the system up until tomorrow at the soonest either, knowing how it has operated in the past.
Quoting odinslightning:


yep im basically at the tillmans corner/mobile city line off of 90 and it has rained and rained and rained....rain was so hard last night the directv wouldn't work all night.....


I'm off Three Notch, and the house is flooded...
Quoting NavarreMark:
Pensacola by Hwy 29 & Brent Lane.

I guess I won't be getting a Whopper today. I'll have to stick to my New York Strips.









It would be interesting if that happened where I live. Is there more to come? Do you have an ark with you or are you going to have swim for yourself? Should a flood hit where I live, which is very hard to flood, I wouldn't worry about getting Whoppers, I'd have to swim for myself. Good luck back there. :-|
1069. txjac
Wow, all of you with severe flooding be careful. Hope that this is all over for you real soon
1065 NavarreMark: Pensacola by Hwy 29 & Brent Lane.

I guess I won't be getting a Whopper today. I'll have to stick to my New York Strips.


I just wish everyone would show as much common sense. WAY too many people apparently think water up to the hubcaps means it's time to drive to the convenience store or somesuch.
Could someone explain to me the cloud feature that seems to start as a tight swirl south west of Jamaica. The tail seems to travel all the way to the Lesser Antilles?

This feature has sustained itself for 24 hrs now traveling west. It seems like there is a tight circulation at 16N 82W
1072. pottery
Quoting richroy:
Since 6 AM in West Pensacola 15.39 inches of rain. Roads are a mess!! Home bound for the weekend.

To me, that's incredible...
Rainfall like that, here, would result in high death-tolls and Major damage.
3000' mountains with large-catchment valleys and towns built in the narrow mouths of the valleys.

It would be awful....
6" in a day here, is plenty rain.
I just wish everyone would show as much common sense. WAY too many people apparently think water up to the hubcaps means it's time to drive to the convenience store or somesuch.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
My wonderful, beautiful daughter drove through 12 inches of water on her way home a few years ago and ruined a well kept class t-Bird.... Let's just say this will never happen again
1074. txjac
I am totally amazed at the rain totals that are being posted. Scary and amizing
1075. LargoFl
Quoting aspectre:
1065 NavarreMark: Pensacola by Hwy 29 & Brent Lane.
I guess I won't be getting a Whopper today. I'll have to stick to my New York Strips.


I just wish everyone would show as much common sense. WAY too many people apparently think water up to the hubcaps means it's time to drive to the convenience store or somesuch.
yes people dont seem to realize the danger of standing water on the roadway,1 foot of water can float the car or at least take control of your car and push it sideways etc..very dangerous

Could future Carlotta make it west into the C.Pac
3 1/2 inches here in Lake Worth Florida from 2:30 to 3:30 pm yesterday
Keep all that rain down in Florida! Sunshine and low humidity here in Ohio.
Keep all that rain down in Florida! Sunshine and low humidity here in Ohio.

Climate change....Grew up in Greene county Ohio.........Wish I was at the Yellow Springs Street Festival today.........Wonderful times for an aging female hippie
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Could future Carlotta make it west into the C.Pac

Probably not... Most indications are it will only be a mid strength TS... When a system is in the invest stage intensity models like the SHIPS tend to bring the intensity straight up, which is unrealistic... It's pretty unlikely this reaches hurricane strength.
Well at least Florida is getting some rain this year and "washing" away it's drought...Ha get it? washing away?...(Don't pay the bad joke any attention.)
1082. LargoFl
Thanks for posting that pic of the BK/shopping center on Brent and 29, my dh was heading to the store and going to that Grocery Outlet he wont be now.
1084. LargoFl
.........so how bad is it you ask?
Quoting LargoFl:
.........so how bad is it you ask?


If you don't want all of it, we'll gladly take some.
right guys I pulled this and put it together these are the type of tracks that I am expecting that we can see with forecasted TS Chris
PART 1

Rina_2011

Link
Nicole_2010

Link
Paula_2010

Link
Richard_2010

Link
Ida_2009

Link
Paloma_2008
Link
Barry_2007

Link
Alberto_2006

Link
Arlene_2005

Link
Low in the BOC and southern Caribbean at 168 hrs on the ECMWF
1088. LargoFl
....ninth ave and airport blvd
Quoting LargoFl:
.........so how bad is it you ask?

I am in Palm Beach county....I honestly believe there is this "GIANT" horsehoe magnet over all trailer parks that draw tornados, hurricanes, hail, rain.....
1066 NavarreMark: Sorry. Couldn't get the image to work

When I've had that happen, it was because I had unwittingly clicked Copy Image instead of the correct Copy Image Location.
There is a ton of rain still offshore of the Gulf coast that will still have to come onshore since it's moving north... Also it is slow moving so the situation will only get worse... Some areas will easily double rainfall totals from so far.
Quoting pottery:

To me, that's incredible...
Rainfall like that, here, would result in high death-tolls and Major damage.
3000' mountains with large-catchment valleys and towns built in the narrow mouths of the valleys.

It would be awful....
6" in a day here, is plenty rain.
ya you get 15 inches there the whole island will wash away
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right guys I pulled this and put it together these are the type of tracks that I am expecting that we can see with forecasted TS Chris
PART 1

Rina_2011

Link
Nicole_2010

Link
Paula_2010

Link
Richard_2010

Link
Ida_2009

Link
Paloma_2008
Link
Barry_2007

Link
Alberto_2006

Link
Arlene_2005

Link


I think you covered all the possibilities.
wunderkidcayman the last three are the best ones.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
There is a ton of rain still offshore of the Gulf coast that will still have to come onshore since it's moving north... Also it is slow moving so the situation will only get worse... Some areas will easily double rainfall totals from so far.
rain totals could near 30 inches in some spots as rain is to fall along the north and east gulf coast states till at least late monday
I would like to say something a little off subject here for safety sake... I was out with the BF this morning out of the Boynton Inlet trying to catch a few snapper........So many people are Kayak fishing now it is scary... Pleae don'r go out in the ocean fishing in a camo Kayak.........Please use yellow or orange..... So hard to see the dark colors....... It is scary out there.... Didn't see a few Kayak fishermen til we were too too close to them
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right guys I pulled this and put it together these are the type of tracks that I am expecting that we can see with forecasted TS Chris
PART 1

Rina_2011

Link
Nicole_2010

Link
Paula_2010

Link
Richard_2010

Link
Ida_2009

Link
Paloma_2008
Link
Barry_2007

Link
Alberto_2006

Link
Arlene_2005

Link

Barry from 2007 is the most likely I think.
End of the 12z Euro run...

Quoting sporteguy03:


I think you covered all the possibilities.

Yeah wait here is
PART 2

Wilma_2005

Link
Bonnie_2004

Link
Michelle_2001

Link
right now I am done
The 12z ECMWF has a broad low at 240 hours. Before that at 168 hours it has two lows,one in BOC and the other in SW Caribbean.
weak low in sw gom on the ecmwf this time...but aleast its showing a simliar track
Bringing it up for importance
interesting feature north of yucatan
GR Level 3 One Hour Rainfall Estimates...



That would mean about 4 inches an hour just SE of Pensacola, which seems pretty realistic.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Barry from 2007 is the most likely I think.


Barry is most likely track based on what?
1106. LargoFl
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

I am in Palm Beach county....I honestly believe there is this "GIANT" horsehoe magnet over all trailer parks that draw tornados, hurricanes, hail, rain.....
lol I hear ya
THANK GOD ITS NOT AUGUST YET!! WOW!! LOOK AT LONG THE HIGH HERE!
we are now basically at 13 inches of rain now. Baptist Hospital has water entering the 1st floor, Blue Angel/Hwy 98 in front of Winn Dixie is flooded, water rescues all over the place and u know what hardly anything on the news/papers/facebook. I have lived here for 10 years and never seen anything like it here. Though I grew up in Brewton, AL and Murder Creek/Burnt Corn creek rises often. 2 or 3 years ago flooded downtown in December, and before that was bigger in 90 or 91 had 4-5 ft of water in some buildings.
1109. LargoFl
Quoting Jebekarue:
we are now basically at 13 inches of rain now. Baptist Hospital has water entering the 1st floor, Blue Angel/Hwy 98 in front of Winn Dixie is flooded, water rescues all over the place and u know what hardly anything on the news/papers/facebook. I have lived here for 10 years and never seen anything like it here. Though I grew up in Brewton, AL and Murder Creek/Burnt Corn creek rises often. 2 or 3 years ago flooded downtown in December, and before that was bigger in 90 or 91 had 4-5 ft of water in some buildings.
yes its bad, there is a news report that this rain is the worst they have had since the 1800's gee..plse stay safe up there
1110. LargoFl
1103 stillwaiting: Interesting feature north of yucatan

Blob's been sittin' centered south of Texas and a hair west of northernmostYucatan off&on (never off for long) since Beryl went kaput.
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
THANK GOD ITS NOT AUGUST YET!! WOW!! LOOK AT LONG THE HIGH HERE!
Ahhhhhhhh @#$%*$@ flaba gabba.
1097 MAweatherboy1: Barry from 2007 is the most likely I think.
1105 jrweatherman: Barry is most likely track based on what?

Earlier GFS developed a closed low in the northwestCaribbean with later GFS leading to a landfall in Florida's armpit.
I'm still watching that persistent blob above the Yucatan.
oops dup.
Just because the models don't develop it now, well, don't get your hopes up (or down). The models always drop a pre-season system and everybody starts screaming "It's not going to develop!" and then in a few days the disturbance gets full model support once again. This is a strong MJO pulse coming, the likes of which we've not seen so far this hurricane season. The forecast pattern has been seen many, many times in the past and it usually delivers both an East Pacific and an Atlantic tropical cyclone. I still think there's a high chance we see "Chris" and "Carlotta".

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just because the models don't develop it now, well, don't get your hopes up (or down). The models always drop a pre-season system and everybody starts screaming "It's not going to develop!" and then in a few days the disturbance gets full model support once again. This is a strong MJO pulse coming, the likes of which we've not seen so far this hurricane season. The forecast pattern has been seen many, many times in the past and it usually delivers both an East Pacific and an Atlantic tropical cyclone. I still think there's a high chance we see "Chris" and "Carlotta".



Carlotta I say is 100% based on how 93E has been organizing rapidly.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Carlotta I say is 100% based on how 93E has been organizing rapidly.

It'd be nice if NOAA would get a floater up.
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
southern Mobile County in southwest Alabama...

* until 615 PM CDT

* at 215 PM CDT... emergency management officials reported flash
flooding over the warned area and radar estimates showing
widespread total rainfall 4 to 8 inches had fallen across the
Mobile Metro area with localized rainfall amounts of up to 18
inches centered just north of I-10 between Dawes and St Elmo.


* Local law enforcement and first responders are conducting numerous
water rescues across portions of the warned area... especially
downstream of a failed dam of a 14 acre Private Lake near Dawes
Lake Road and nugget drive... stranding people in their homes.

* Locations impacted include...
eastern Dauphin Island...
central Dauphin Island... downtown Mobile...
Midtown Mobile... west Mobile... Coden...
Tillmans Corner... Theodore... Tanner Williams...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just because the models don't develop it now, well, don't get your hopes up (or down). The models always drop a pre-season system and everybody starts screaming "It's not going to develop!" and then in a few days the disturbance gets full model support once again. This is a strong MJO pulse coming, the likes of which we've not seen so far this hurricane season. The forecast pattern has been seen many, many times in the past and it usually delivers both an East Pacific and an Atlantic tropical cyclone. I still think there's a high chance we see "Chris" and "Carlotta".

We may also get Daniel from it.
When all is said and done, this will probably be Pensacola's worst flooding event on record. The rain is expected to continue falling through at least Monday.
146

WHXX01 KMIA 091835

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1835 UTC SAT JUN 9 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932012) 20120609 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120609 1800 120610 0600 120610 1800 120611 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.4N 105.3W 9.9N 106.5W 10.6N 108.0W 11.5N 110.0W

BAMD 9.4N 105.3W 9.6N 107.4W 10.0N 109.7W 10.6N 112.1W

BAMM 9.4N 105.3W 9.6N 107.1W 10.0N 109.0W 10.5N 111.1W

LBAR 9.4N 105.3W 9.8N 107.3W 10.1N 109.8W 10.7N 112.7W

SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 57KTS

DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 57KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120611 1800 120612 1800 120613 1800 120614 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.3N 112.3W 13.6N 117.7W 14.1N 123.2W 13.0N 128.8W

BAMD 11.0N 114.6W 11.3N 119.4W 9.6N 123.4W 8.0N 125.7W

BAMM 11.1N 113.6W 11.6N 118.2W 11.1N 122.1W 10.2N 125.3W

LBAR 11.3N 116.3W 12.7N 123.1W 11.3N 127.5W 10.8N 126.4W

SHIP 68KTS 78KTS 81KTS 82KTS

DSHP 68KTS 78KTS 81KTS 82KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.4N LONCUR = 105.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 103.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 101.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Monday Night the 18th

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds from the SE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 1.1 in. possible.
18z update on 93E brought the winds up to 25 kts and pressure down to 1008... It's organizing rather quickly.
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93E
I need a canoe, boat or maybe an Ark. I am already growing webbed feet. What is causing all this rain, it almost seems tropical in nature, coming down in sheets with the wind.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
When all is said and done, this will probably be Pensacola's worst flooding event on record. The rain is expected to continue falling through at least Monday.

That would mean if Chris were to come into that area, oh boy, it would be horrible.
93E is in a favorable environment, I could definitely see it reaching hurricane status.


lots more to come
1133. LargoFl
Quoting Jebekarue:
I need a canoe, boat or maybe an Ark. I am already growing webbed feet. What is causing all this rain, it almost seems tropical in nature, coming down in sheets with the wind.
yes its almost what we had for the last 3-4 days here on the west coast of florida only not nearly that much rain whew..one poster warned of a very REAL danger you folks face over there...Snakes, plse be extra careful when you venture outside,dunno if you have the gators there but everything will be swimming in that water..also pollution concerns will arise..a real bad scene all around im afraid for you folks there
From one extreme to the other... Extreme rainfall in the southeast to bone dry conditions for much of the west

Quoting NavarreMark:
We're up to 4 inches now at my place. 2 inches in the last 1 1/2 hours or so.

I hear areas near Perdido Kay have gotten over 18 inches today. In April of 2005 we had 17.5 inches in Navarre in one day. That was the hardest rain I've ever witnessed, and that includes spending an entire rainy season in Vietnam.
I smell trouble later in the season....
1137. LargoFl
Flooding has been reported across Pensacola with numerous roads flooded and impassable.

Homes and businesses throughout downtown Pensacola are flooded, especially in the Palafox area of the city.

Reports are coming out that water has entered the first floor of a Baptist Hospital.

Rainfall rates of greater than 2 inches per hour continue to fall throughout the Gulf Coast region and there have been reports of greater than 18 inches of rain so far today in an area just north of Interstate 10 between Dawes and St. Elmo, Alabama in Mobile County.

A failed dam on a 14-acre private lake near Dawes, Ala. has displaced many people from their homes.
Severe road flooding here in Gulf Breeze, just south of Pensacola. Crossed a puddle 18" on the way to store...stalled out in the same spot 15 minutes later and the water had deepened significantly. Many road closures in the area.

Does anyone have the stats on the April 1 event here in 2004 (5)? That was a rather dramatic event.
I'm in Perdido Key area and emptied 15 inches out of my rain gauge today. Twice, it was overflowing when I dumped it, so we got some amount more than that. Our neighborhood is not prone to flooding, but two homes on my street have over a foot of water in the house. Pensacola has had significant flooding today.
Flooding sounds awful the way people are describing it.And just imagine they were in a terrible drought only a month ago.It seems someone had prayed a little to hard.
Well, It's tropical but It's certainly not a storm.
This is the type of event that HGX was pondering about a week ago. It seems that it has come to fruition, just in a different location.
1144. LargoFl
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA.

* LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND FIRST RESPONDERS ARE CONDUCTING WATER
RESCUES IN THE WARRINGTON...MYRTLE GROVE AND PERDIDO PARK AREAS.
THIS IS AN EXTREME EVENT...NOT A TYPICAL FLASH FLOOD.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST PENSACOLA... WARRINGTON... PENSACOLA...
MYRTLE GROVE... GOULDING... BRENT...
BELLVIEW...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING SITUATION. YOU
SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL. STAY HOME UNLESS YOU ARE FORCED TO
EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER CROSSES A ROAD. TURN AROUND - DON`T DROWN!

NEVER TRY TO CROSS OR PLAY IN AN URBAN SPILLWAY OR FLOWING CREEK...
EVEN A SMALL ONE. URBAN FLASH FLOODING IS A MAJOR KILLER
Looks like the Pensacola area might slip out the back edge of the heaviest rain soon.

1147. LargoFl
..................midtown mobile alabama
I know Dr Masters said he will be back with a new blog on Monday,but I think he may have to create a new blog soon about this big flooding event taking place.
1151. LargoFl
1152. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
....................pensacola
The entire event as seen from radar:



Oh, and today marks 11 years since Tropical Storm Allison's inundation of Houston. I guess it only makes sense that there should be a major flood today.
They are calling it a Flash Flood Emergency not just a warning. 13.81 inches at WEAR now, sheriffs office downtown 19.05 inches. My old neighborhood flooded,behind Warrington Middle school, called an old neighbor she got water in her rec room, ground level got to top step. Saw pics from downtown chest high water, some pics have water above headlights on trucks. Sorry dont know how to put pics on here.
1155. LargoFl
Several areas of Escambia County are being flooded this afternoon.


There are reports of closed intersections throughout the city, including East Hill, intersections of Cervantes Street and at Barrancas Avenue and Main Street in Pensacola.


Main Street in Pensacola near the Community Maritime Park is closed. A Pensacola police officer is stationed in the area to redirect traffic.


Parts of Escambia County had already seen 10 inches of rain before noon, and it’s still coming. As much as 13 inches could fall by the end of the day, the Weather Service said.


The American Red Cross has opened a shelter for residents affected by today’s flooding. The shelter is at East Brent Baptist Church, 4801 N. Davis Highway in Pensacola. Residents should bring along their disaster kits, which include clothing, food and water and necessary supplies for any elderly or babies in the family.


The Escambia County Emergency Operations Center is at a Level II partial activation due to the flooding conditions in the county.


Gulf Power officials said today’s flooding conditions have caused only pockets of outages throughout south Escambia and that most if not all power should be restored by this evening.


Jeff Rogers, a Gulf Power spokesman, said there were no major outages and that the storm has caused only minor interruptions in service. There are scattered pockets ranging from 10 to 75 homes that have lost power.


He said crews are out repairing the lines now.


“Conditions are good for restoring power now,” he said about 1 p.m. today.


Keith Williams, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said that it will rain most of the weekend, with a 90 percent chance today, 80 percent chance tonight and a 70 percent chance tomorrow.


The National Weather Service has also released a flash flood warning until 8 p.m. today in south central Escambia County.


“It’s a serious situation, both in Pensacola and Mobile,” Williams said.


A homeowner near the Saufley Field Landfill said red clay is washing into Elcino Drive, south of Saufley Field Road.


Williams said that there’s a good possibility that the rain will continue through 7:30 p.m. today, when the Charlie Daniels concert is scheduled at the Community Maritime Park.


The concert is on hold, and all other grand opening events today at the Maritime Park have been canceled.
There is some really massive divergence there!



High to extreme amounts of moisture available too.

There are more storms behind the main line near the Mouth of the Mississippi. It will be interesting to see if these storms continue to develop or if the don't hold together.

Isn't Cyclone Oz from Pensacola? He said he moved there recently.
I remember the Doc said droughts don't usually end pretty. That to me is the biggest concern of the present day warming, more energy in, more energy out. Extreme drought and extreme rain, as the atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture you get less rain. But as the song says it never rains in California but when it pours it really pours. Texas stand by for next week if the models are right.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
From one extreme to the other... Extreme rainfall in the southeast to bone dry conditions for much of the west

Yes. Among many others, a fast-growing fire popped up today near Estes Park, CO (west of Loveland/Ft. Collins):

Fire
It really is truly amazing how things come to fruition. Looking at the southeast drought map and then looking at the forecast precipitation map it goes to show that the earth will always balance things out
1162. help4u
Just think one year ago we were all going to die from no water on earth and hot temps,this year we need a arch and by winter the next ice age will be upon us!
Help4u you sir are certainly an antagonist to say the least.
1164. LargoFl
the insurance people are going nuts right about now huh lol
1165. help4u
Someone to post facts that's about it.Just like in 1992 the ozone hole was going to kill mankind,sorry God is in control not us.
Quoting aspectre:
1065 NavarreMark: Pensacola by Hwy 29 & Brent Lane.

I guess I won't be getting a Whopper today. I'll have to stick to my New York Strips.


I just wish everyone would show as much common sense. WAY too many people apparently think water up to the hubcaps means it's time to drive to the convenience store or somesuch.
HOLY SHITE!!
Quoting help4u:
Just think one year ago we were all going to die from no water on earth and hot temps,this year we need a arch and by winter the next ice age will be upon us!
That's a profoundly constructive comment. Thanks for posting!
Quoting help4u:
...sorry God is in control not us.
Now, why would you want to go and blame this mess we've made on someone else?
.
the radar actually didnt appear to extreme, i guess the HPC is kicking themselves for removing 10in precip amounts from the 5 day precip.
I hope all that rain holds together into N and Central GA, i would love to see 5-7 inches of rain all across GA.
Was In Pcola this morning and it was truly amazing how much rain fell in such a short period of time. Left there about noon and I'm sure it's far worse now.

Here in Navarre, the rain is steadily picking up in intensity. Power is out from Tiger Point (Gulf Breeze) Westward into Pensacola. By the looks of the radar, we're about to get hammered here. over the next few hours.
Yes much to the commercial insurance industries chagrin, and a few republicans. Florida will become the first self insured state at this rate. Once again besides all of man's best intentions nature will self correct. Sorry all you bible fundamentalist, God does work in truly mysterious ways.
Twitter users are reporting a plane down in the East River off Manhattan. No word on size, type, cause, etc. Possible false alarm; awaiting word.
Taiwan just had a magnitude 6.4 earthquake... Probably some damage with that one.

Edit: Just got downgraded to 5.8 by EMSC, USGS says 6.0
WTPN21 PGTW 092030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082021ZJUN2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 082021). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 152.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
5.2N 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIURNAL FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
DESPITE A STRONG (ALTHOUGH WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS)
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, A 091555Z AMSU-B PARTIAL 85 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND DYNAMIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT HAS BACKED OFF. A
090739Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED A WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) ELONGATED
CIRCULATION (AS WELL AS THE UW-CIMSS 850MB VORTICITY PRODUCT).
ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH AT 1008 TO 1009 MB WITH WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT)
WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE, DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD FLOW INTO A TUTT
CELL NEAR 17N 153E. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER GUAM, WHICH MAY HINDER FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.
THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a profoundly constructive comment. Thanks for posting!Now, why would you want to go and blame this mess we've made on someone else?


I see what you did there...
My son's in Pensacola area...tons of roads closed due to flooding and cars underwater...rain still coming down!
Quoting LargoFl:
the insurance people are going nuts right about now huh lol


LOL--- $$$$$$$$$$$$$
GULF BREEZE PROPER NOW UP TO 12" and still Raining!!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT JUN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 092053Z - 092230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING HOW SOON...BUT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
23-00Z.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SLOWLY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE EVIDENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM A DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE CAPE /MIXED LAYER ON THE ORDER OF 2500+ J PER KG/.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION PERSISTS...BUT LATEST RAPID REFRESH
SUGGESTS SUBTLE SIGNS OF AT LEAST AREAS OF WEAKENING...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE LOW CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WARM SECTOR SHEAR...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ONCE CAPPING IS BROKEN.
THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 23-00Z...WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME LARGE
AND CLOCKWISE CURVED NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE.
Can you imagine what Chris would do flooding wise following all of this?

in pensacola, 12.99 was the last official report i remember, they probably are past the record now:

The 12.99 inches is now the second wettest day on record next to October 5th, 1934 when 15.29 inches of rain fell.
Quoting LargoFl:
.........so how bad is it you ask?
Doggie is having fun!!!
Update from him:Gulf Beach and Augusta – Underwater
10427 Sorento Rd (Sorento Plaza) – Flooding businesses requesting barricades
New Warrington Spur not passable
Hunter Point Apartments Hwy 98 entrance is not passable
City of Gulf Breeze:
Gulf Breeze Parkway is down to one lane each direction throughout most of the city limits due to flooding.
Some flooding along residential streets.
Midway Area:
Reports of 4-5 feet of water standing on Redwood Dr.
Duke Dr. has reports of water up to cars in driveways.

1185. K8eCane
Quoting Neapolitan:
Twitter users are reporting a plane down in the East River off Manhattan. No word on size, type, cause, etc. Possible false alarm; awaiting word.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Taiwan just had a magnitude 6.4 earthquake... Probably some damage with that one.

Edit: Just got downgraded to 5.8 by EMSC, USGS says 6.0



Dear Lord, time for more xanax
1172 gordydunnot: Yes much to the commercial insurance industries chagrin, and a few republicans. Florida will become the first self insured state at this rate.

Even if that were to happen, it'd be only partially self-insured. Federal flood insurance and various FEMA services will continue to strongly underwrite and subsize catastrophic coverage.
Wow, extreme rainfall, dang...
Hot dry winds in Northern New Mexico. Lots of fires down south with reports of new ones popping up all the time. Just a matter of time, sadly.
Evening All
Well we've got quake of the day over in Taiwan, around a 6 at the moment just offshore.

I was just thinking if you get Chris there is going to be a lot of surplus water around in the south of the US.
State of emergency in Escambia:

Several areas of Escambia County are being flooded this afternoon, prompting Escambia County officials to declare a state of emerency as of 3 p.m. today.

Here is the latest news from the county:

• The National Weather Service is forecasting and additional 12 to 15 inches of rainfall between now and midnight Sunday night. This makes the total projected rain fall for this event between 20 and 30 inches.

• Residents living in low-lying areas and areas prone to flooding are encouraged to evacuate.

• Escambia County Emergency Management has activated its Citizen Information Line. Residents can call (850) 471-6600 for information.

Link
Quoting PlazaRed:
Evening All
Well we've got quake of the day over in Taiwan, around a 6 at the moment just offshore.

I was just thinking if you get Chris there is going to be a lot of surplus water around in the south of the US.


the earthquake was at a depth of 44 miles, so i dont think it was too bad for taiwan.

Heavy rain would be probably the greatest problem from chris if it hits around the pensacola mobile area, especially if the heavy rains continue inland as heavily as they have fallen near the shore.
i referenced this in post 1182


new storms brewing down south, look at the new t-storm bursts:


Quoting help4u:
Someone to post facts that's about it.Just like in 1992 the ozone hole was going to kill mankind,sorry God is in control not us.
joe is that you
1196. SuzK
Quoting pottery:

To me, that's incredible...
Rainfall like that, here, would result in high death-tolls and Major damage.
3000' mountains with large-catchment valleys and towns built in the narrow mouths of the valleys.

It would be awful....
6" in a day here, is plenty rain.


We live in the ridge and valley of Northeast PA. 4" of rain will bring the creek into my yard...so far we haven't been tested above 9" of rain in one storm. I am always horrified when I see 15" of rain, but I know that is southern tropical rain and far more than I might expect locally. Nowadays the only thing predictable about the weather is its unpredictability! Hey, that's the chaos theory isn't it?











Is the GOM storm tropical?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
3 1/2 inches here in Lake Worth Florida from 2:30 to 3:30 pm yesterday


Yeah I had 2.03 yesterday, and just under 7 total since Tuesday. Perfect drought relief because we had 1 to 2 inches every day Tuesday through Friday. Having all 7 inches in one event with a drought in place doesn't allow as much of it to soak in.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:











Is the GOM storm tropical?


No, it's completely Extratropical.. Sort of similar to those winter Gulf Lows, except it's happening in late spring.
1200. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Can you imagine what Chris would do flooding wise following all of this?

in pensacola, 12.99 was the last official report i remember, they probably are past the record now:

The 12.99 inches is now the second wettest day on record next to October 5th, 1934 when 15.29 inches of rain fell.
It does not even have to have a name. Any wet system that comes along after this one will cause serious problems. The models keep showing a large system in 200 hours or so. This would allow some time for flood waters to recede providing the rain from seasonal seabreeze collisions dont keep dumping rain on saturated areas. This type of thing has happened many times before, and the people there know what to do. It did not seem like they had much warning for the flooding conditions there having now. GFS wants to take the low,or whatever this becomes across the southern part of the state, which is good. The bad news is that a frontal system may stall over the region, making a bad situation worse....228 hours..
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:











Is the GOM storm tropical?


it is a tropical airmass, so yes the rainfall is tropical, but it is mainly just a low in the wrong place at the wrong time leading to all of these tropical rains.
My final point is, if we don't use our supercomputer's to address the complex scenarios, that are out there and keep playing I don't live there, so it's not my problem. All I can say is good luck to us all, because the last time I checked it was the United States of America. No matter how hard some wish it wasn't.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WTPN21 PGTW 092030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082021ZJUN2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 082021). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 152.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
5.2N 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIURNAL FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
DESPITE A STRONG (ALTHOUGH WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS)
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, A 091555Z AMSU-B PARTIAL 85 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND DYNAMIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT HAS BACKED OFF. A
090739Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED A WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) ELONGATED
CIRCULATION (AS WELL AS THE UW-CIMSS 850MB VORTICITY PRODUCT).
ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH AT 1008 TO 1009 MB WITH WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT)
WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE, DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD FLOW INTO A TUTT
CELL NEAR 17N 153E. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER GUAM, WHICH MAY HINDER FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.
THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

This reminds me of the origins of that storm back in 93.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This reminds me of the origins of that storm back in 93.


how?
i wasnt alive yet for that one, but i hear the snow was great.
are ya watchin doc
more wacky weather
for the 2012 collection
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


how, i wasnt alive yet for that one, but i hear the snow was great.
The storm back in 93 originated in the gulf.It brought a lot of rain to some of the same areas being affected now.Minus the storm surge...
looks lik NE FL is getting some more benficial rains, not the floods like in pensacola
I'm out keep, keep on Keeping on.Sorry for the association.
amazing how close alberto and beryl were to being in the same locations for part of their journeys:
Quoting washingtonian115:
The storm back in 93 originated in the gulf.It brought a lot of rain to some of the same areas being affected now.Minus the storm surge...
It also brought snow to the gulf coast. In fact Thunder snow which I think Cantore was in it.


If this pattern doesn't change in the next 2 months, it's going to lead to a very bad Hurricane Season.
Models are in amazing agreement with the track and intensity of Invest 93E despite the fact that it hasn't even formed yet. Pretty impressive.

LGEM brings it up to 80 knots (90 mph) in 120 hours. Definitely not out of the question.



Quoting reedzone:


If this pattern doesn't change in the next 2 months, it's going to lead to a very bad Hurricane Season.
We have already had 1 landfalling tropical storm. And should Chris form in the Caribbean that will make landfall as well just don't know where exactly.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It also brought snow to the gulf coast. In fact Thunder snow which I think Cantore was in it.


i want something like that to happen again, since i havent seen more that 6 in of snow, so i am excited about an el nino.
And in el ninos, GA actually seems to get severe weather, instead of every storm succumbing to the state line curse at the AL and TN state lines.

also a nice line forming:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It also brought snow to the gulf coast. In fact Thunder snow which I think Cantore was in it.
It brought snow all the way up the eastern sea board.I remember getting a good 3-4 feet in my yard.Anyway back to the topic.
18Z GFS is coming out now!:)
1220. hydrus
Quoting washingtonian115:
The storm back in 93 originated in the gulf.It brought a lot of rain to some of the same areas being affected now.Minus the storm surge...
Hello 115.. I have to differ with you that this system is like the 93 storm you are referring to. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Storm of the Century (1993) {{{alt}}}
Satellite image by NASA of the superstorm on March 13, 1993, at 10:01 UTC.
Storm type Cyclonic blizzard, Nor'easter
Formed March 2, 1993
Dissipated March 15, 1993
Maximum amount 69 in (180 cm) Mt. Le Conte, TN*
Lowest pressure 960 mb (hPa)
Lowest temperature
Damages $6.65 billion (2008 US$)[1]
Fatalities 310
Areas affected Canada, United States, and Cuba
^* Maximum snowfall or ice accretion

The Storm of the Century, also known as the 1993 Superstorm, or the (Great) Blizzard of 1993, was a large cyclonic storm that formed over the North Atlantic Ocean on March 2nd, 1993 and dissipated two weeks later on March 15. It is unique for its intensity, massive size and wide-reaching effect. At its height, the storm stretched from Canada towards Central America, but its main impact was on the Eastern United States and Cuba. The cyclone moved through the Gulf of Mexico, and then through the Eastern United States before moving into Canada. Areas as far south as central Alabama and Georgia received 6 to 8 inches (15 to 20 cm) of snow and areas such as Birmingham, Alabama, received up to 12 inches (30 cm) with isolated reports of 16 inches (41 cm). Even the Florida Panhandle reported up to 4 inches (10 cm), with hurricane-force wind gusts and record low barometric pressures. Between Louisiana and Cuba, hurricane-force winds produced high storm surges across northwestern Florida, which along with scattered tornadoes killed dozens of people. Record cold temperatures were seen across portions of the South and East in the wake of this storm. In the United States, the storm was responsible for the loss of electric power to over 10 million customers. It is purported to have been directly experienced by nearly 40 percent of the country's population at that time. A total of 310 people, including 10 from Cuba, perished during this storm.
On August 22nd 1995, 3 tropical storms formed while one dissipated.....
Do you know how the blog would have been?!
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
On August 22nd 1995, 3 tropical storms formed while one dissipated.....
Do you know how the blog would have been?!

In September 2010 we had Igor at nearly Category 5 intensity, Karl rapidly intensifying into a Category 3 hurricane, and Julia reaching its peak as a Category 4 hurricane.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
On August 22nd 1995, 3 tropical storms formed while one dissipated.....
Do you know how the blog would have been?!
The doom con will be up to 9000.
could Chris develop from the convection in the central Atlantic?
18z GFS 126 hours... Carlotta about to go off the screen

1226. hydrus
Quoting allancalderini:
could Chris develop from the convection in the central Atlantic?
That blob is supposed to be in the Western Caribbean by the 18th, interact with the MJO and surrounding low pressure to form a monsoonal low.
I'm ready to see some tropical action.
Possible weak development off the NC coast in 6-7 days?



1230. hydrus
East Atlantic.
159HR
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Possible weak development off the NC coast in 6-7 days?

Then after that it shows the caribbean storm?
1233. hydrus
.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Then after that it shows the caribbean storm?

Maybe... The run is still coming in but it already has a 1006mb low at 162 hours so it may try to blow it up on this run.
168HR!:)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Maybe... The run is still coming in but it already has a 1006mb low at 162 hours so it may try to blow it up on this run.
be interesting if we get chris and Debby.
Poll time!
When will Chris form?
A. This coming week
B. 2 weeks
C. Some other time

When will Debby form?
A. 2 weeks
B. 3 weeks
C. Afterward
Quoting washingtonian115:
The doom con will be up to 9000.


Hmmmm not so sure about that ...As far as I am aware there were only 5 levels of DOOM:CON
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll time!
When will Chris form?
A. This coming week
B. 2 weeks
C. Some other time

When will Debby form?
A. 2 weeks
B. 3 weeks
C. Afterward

End of A/ Start of B for the first one and B for the second.
18z GFS is out to 216 hours... Definitely shows a storm but it doesn't look like anything special.

Edit: And actually it drops the storm after 216 hours which is pretty odd...
1242. LargoFl
Quoting GTcooliebai:
State of emergency in Escambia:

Several areas of Escambia County are being flooded this afternoon, prompting Escambia County officials to declare a state of emerency as of 3 p.m. today.

Here is the latest news from the county:

• The National Weather Service is forecasting and additional 12 to 15 inches of rainfall between now and midnight Sunday night. This makes the total projected rain fall for this event between 20 and 30 inches.

• Residents living in low-lying areas and areas prone to flooding are encouraged to evacuate.

• Escambia County Emergency Management has activated its Citizen Information Line. Residents can call (850) 471-6600 for information.

Link
OMG those poor people
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

End of A/ Start of B for the first one and B for the second.


So if we get Chris in the next week as some suspect, will this be a record for 3 named storms before the 20th of June?
I think the cusp of A and B, as well.
Quoting PlazaRed:


So if we get Chris in the next week as some suspect, will this be a record for 3 named storms before the 20th of June?
I think the cusp of A and B, as well.

No, the 1887 Atlantic hurricane reached the three tropical storm mark on June 11.


Hermine had the classic whip-tail that brought us 15" in 8 hours. Hermine saved Texas' bacon.
I love Dr. Masters scare tactics to advance the immediate a quick effects of "Global Warming"... Won't see warming like that until46,565AD... Excuse me, wasn't most of the modest like Kansas and Nebraska through text and ok once at the bottom of the ocean before the last ice age? If you think I'm wrong go see where they have been digging up ocean fossils... We know that not a huge continent drift factor was at work over such a short period, so all that doom and gloom already happened once and will happen again, and some new geological records show that historically the climate didn't slowly change itself in the past, that it was a very quick cycle taking 100 150 years... When deaths systems change, they change... Like I have said before humans are way too egotistical and believe they're the center cause for everything... He'll the universe revolved around us 500 years ago making us all important... We like to believe we live in a steady state world where tomorrow will be the same temp as it will be 10,000 years from now... But we know it will be one thing... Most likely different... After all ask Dr. Masters about all that co2 which is actually a weaker greenhouse gas than water vapor which is 23x stronger than co2.... But why does co2 LAG temp increase by a few years... Now if you cram 100 hard on a chart it looks like a great match but make the chart big and focus on a much smaller time slice 5 to 10 years or 10 to 20 after all us humans know so much about the climate we have accurate data that we have been collecting accurate data personally measured for 0.000001875% of the earth history... Until we can predict the weather a year out I don't worry about warming.... I just try to keep myself living as green as I can with in my means, but to point out one of the less potent greenhouse gas and blame it when it actually one not a predictor but a lagging effect of warming is insane.... If anything its not what we did to the air stupid, its what we did to the oceans.... Over fished them.... Changed massive underwater cycles.. Now the phytoplankton don't get eaten, they die and rot and give of silver and Meghan, changing the acidity of the ocean which will change the thermalhaline ocean circulation which is the worlds biggest heat pump... It breaks down time to time and can cause big swings quickly... We may have hastens that by a little but the climate is changing anyway... The more we try to change it to the way it was, the more we are going to throw a slightly off balance mother nature off her kilter... The earth warms, it cools... Ever hear of snowball earth... While we should live greener don't force it... Otherwise the opposite will happen... Youngish too hard raise prices, high unemployment eventually depression not repossession and people will mortgage the money to give a damn about the environment because they can't feed there kids or heat there home, so it will be time to burn the tires and trash for heat in the winters... Believe me while maybe you extreme environmentalists think 12 ton18 dollar a gallon of gas is good.. That takes a 25 mpg car who used to be able to drive from Maine to la for 300 dollars on way and puts it to nearly 3000 dollars... No imagine the effect on the cost of diesil. 85% of final goods get delivered by trucks or trains... What do they burn?? Do you thing Wal-Mart will swallow a tenfold cost in shipping... So our 2.00 milk may go to 7.00, those 1.00 bag of crappy meat go to 4.00, a loaf of bread 6.00... Because you can't forget that the end cost from the warehouse to the store is the only trip... Meats go from the farm to a slaughter house to a meat plant then to the store... Your herbs will go from1200 for a 55 inch to 3 to 4 thousand overnight if the gas prices changed overnight... Even the electric car is a polluter unless it hearings power from nuclear plants... At least that waste can be solidified into cement or glass and be solid and ever leak... Oil and coal powered cars are shown to be as nearly if not worse polluters than the most efficient gas cars, only due to the battery inefficiencies which are being quickly overcome... Don't force expensive change for something we don't know if we are 10 percent responsible or 20mor more of less... Make it cheaper to go green but mot by inflating Mon green options prices.. That will cause more environmentail issues

I just don't by masters stuff... We don't have accurate data due to it being manipulated or omitted to push their goal.. Just like al gore is Mr co2.. What he doesn't tell you are the contracts and billions he is set to make of trading cargo credits... How about we triads h20 credits for those that over saturate the air and that has being more potent that co2 23x so... I bet the overall water vapor has increased overs the last many years world wide... It can rise even if it doesn't rain or drought conditions exist... Now if we can get that 1/2 degree wobble to happen now, we could see a green Barbara in our lifetime... Just a little fact...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS is out to 216 hours... Definitely shows a storm but it doesn't look like anything special.

Edit: And actually it drops the storm after 216 hours which is pretty odd...
I wonder why it splits the storm up and forms a new one off the east coast? Too much windshear?
Quoting lightning75:


Hmmmm not so sure about that ...As far as I am aware there were only 5 levels of DOOM:CON
its actually defcon 12345 five being the less threat while 1 is the greatest

DEFCON 5 Normal peacetime readiness
DEFCON 4 Normal, increased intelligence and strengthened security measures
DEFCON 3 Increase in force readiness above normal readiness
DEFCON 2 Further Increase in force readiness, but less than maximum readiness
DEFCON 1 Maximum force readiness.
now the GFS is falling away from consensus with the other models, hopefully it returns to what it was showing before or we may need to rethink our predictions, especially considering that the ECMWF is so far west compared to the GFS.

nite all

oh and before i go, we must remeber chris may come back, look what the gfs did with carlotta, dropping it and now bringing it back.
typical gfs.
1250. hydrus
Quoting redwagon:


Hermine had the classic whip-tail that brought us 15" in 8 hours. Hermine saved Texas' bacon.
Hermine maintained T.S. strength well inland..
Quoting GlobalWarmingFallacy:
.... Changed massive underwater cycles.. Now the phytoplankton don't get eaten, they die and rot and give of silver and Meghan...



NOOOO! not meghan!
0/10 love
1253. hydrus
GFS 168 hours..Of course there is a low just off the Florida Panhandle.
1254. TXCWC
Concerning future Chris: Models today are saying that alot is going to depend on how strong and fast that High builds into the Gulf...18zGFS really highlights this.
1256. LargoFl
...........saw the sun today for what seems like week of rain......prayers to those suffering thru the flooding.......good night everyone
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its actually defcon 12345 five being the less threat while 1 is the greatest

DEFCON 5 Normal peacetime readiness
DEFCON 4 Normal, increased intelligence and strengthened security measures
DEFCON 3 Increase in force readiness above normal readiness
DEFCON 2 Further Increase in force readiness, but less than maximum readiness
DEFCON 1 Maximum force readiness.


DOOM:CON and DEFCON are different messures

What is that??
Quoting hydrus:
GFS 168 hours..Of course there is a low just off the Florida Panhandle.
There is also HURRICON scale they use at Kennedy Space Center it follows the DEFCON scale but is for hurricane threats. I made up another one based on that scale & how my hair is behaving in relation to humidity & the tropics, that is HAIRCON...We've been in HAIRCON4 for a few days now.
Quoting GlobalWarmingFallacy:
I love Dr. Masters scare tactics to advance the immediate a quick effects of "Global Warming"... Won't see warming like that until46,565AD... Excuse me, wasn't most of the modest like Kansas and Nebraska through text and ok once at the bottom of the ocean before the last ice age? If you think I'm wrong go see where they have been digging up ocean fossils... We know that not a huge continent drift factor was at work over such a short period, so all that doom and gloom already happened once and will happen again, and some new geological records show that historically the climate didn't slowly change itself in the past, that it was a very quick cycle taking 100 150 years... When deaths systems change, they change... Like I have said before humans are way too egotistical and believe they're the center cause for everything... He'll the universe revolved around us 500 years ago making us all important... We like to believe we live in a steady state world where tomorrow will be the same temp as it will be 10,000 years from now... But we know it will be one thing... Most likely different... After all ask Dr. Masters about all that co2 which is actually a weaker greenhouse gas than water vapor which is 23x stronger than co2.... But why does co2 LAG temp increase by a few years... Now if you cram 100 hard on a chart it looks like a great match but make the chart big and focus on a much smaller time slice 5 to 10 years or 10 to 20 after all us humans know so much about the climate we have accurate data that we have been collecting accurate data personally measured for 0.000001875% of the earth history... Until we can predict the weather a year out I don't worry about warming.... I just try to keep myself living as green as I can with in my means, but to point out one of the less potent greenhouse gas and blame it when it actually one not a predictor but a lagging effect of warming is insane.... If anything its not what we did to the air stupid, its what we did to the oceans.... Over fished them.... Changed massive underwater cycles.. Now the phytoplankton don't get eaten, they die and rot and give of silver and Meghan, changing the acidity of the ocean which will change the thermalhaline ocean circulation which is the worlds biggest heat pump... It breaks down time to time and can cause big swings quickly... We may have hastens that by a little but the climate is changing anyway... The more we try to change it to the way it was, the more we are going to throw a slightly off balance mother nature off her kilter... The earth warms, it cools... Ever hear of snowball earth... While we should live greener don't force it... Otherwise the opposite will happen... Youngish too hard raise prices, high unemployment eventually depression not repossession and people will mortgage the money to give a damn about the environment because they can't feed there kids or heat there home, so it will be time to burn the tires and trash for heat in the winters... Believe me while maybe you extreme environmentalists think 12 ton18 dollar a gallon of gas is good.. That takes a 25 mpg car who used to be able to drive from Maine to la for 300 dollars on way and puts it to nearly 3000 dollars... No imagine the effect on the cost of diesil. 85% of final goods get delivered by trucks or trains... What do they burn?? Do you thing Wal-Mart will swallow a tenfold cost in shipping... So our 2.00 milk may go to 7.00, those 1.00 bag of crappy meat go to 4.00, a loaf of bread 6.00... Because you can't forget that the end cost from the warehouse to the store is the only trip... Meats go from the farm to a slaughter house to a meat plant then to the store... Your herbs will go from1200 for a 55 inch to 3 to 4 thousand overnight if the gas prices changed overnight... Even the electric car is a polluter unless it hearings power from nuclear plants... At least that waste can be solidified into cement or glass and be solid and ever leak... Oil and coal powered cars are shown to be as nearly if not worse polluters than the most efficient gas cars, only due to the battery inefficiencies which are being quickly overcome... Don't force expensive change for something we don't know if we are 10 percent responsible or 20mor more of less... Make it cheaper to go green but mot by inflating Mon green options prices.. That will cause more environmentail issues

I just don't by masters stuff... We don't have accurate data due to it being manipulated or omitted to push their goal.. Just like al gore is Mr co2.. What he doesn't tell you are the contracts and billions he is set to make of trading cargo credits... How about we triads h20 credits for those that over saturate the air and that has being more potent that co2 23x so... I bet the overall water vapor has increased overs the last many years world wide... It can rise even if it doesn't rain or drought conditions exist... Now if we can get that 1/2 degree wobble to happen now, we could see a green Barbara in our lifetime... Just a little fact...
Well, now, that's quite a Gish Gallop of warmed-over and thoroughly debunked denialist talking points. I mean, I think that's what it is. To be honest, though, I'm having a difficult time reading that big slab o'text that you wrote. Two friendly words of advice, then: "paragraph" and "breaks". :-)
Quoting Skyepony:
There is also HURRICON scale they use at Kennedy Space Center it follows the DEFCON scale but is for hurricane threats. I made up another one based on that scale & how my hair is behaving in relation to humidity & the tropics, that is HAIRCON...We've been in HAIRCON4 for a few days now.
well lets hope we don't have to go to HAIRCON3


lol
Quoting lightning75:


DOOM:CON and DEFCON are different messures



That, ma'am, is a great Simpsonian representation of the DOOM:CON scale!
Quoting Levi32:


Actually the MJO is extremely important to summer forecasting. JB perhaps goes way too far into the political world for his own good, but his meteorological insights are still keen on a lot of things.
My question is how he can reliably predict the amplitude and location of the upward phase of the mjo for the entire summer when models seem to have trouble with a two week forecast.
iam gonna use that sky this season i like it

i will check in with ya before i declare any HAIRCON levels
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That, sir, is a great Simpsonian representation of the DOOM:CON scale!


Why thank you but I am Female and didnt invent it..lol
18z GFS does this time develop a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean in 174 hours, but I cannot understand for the life of me why it is so adamant on splitting the system in half.
Quoting lightning75:


DOOM:CON and DEFCON are different messures

i don't know that looks more like a homer con if ya ask me
Quoting lightning75:


Why thank you but I am Female and didnt invent it..lol


Duly noted and comment modified
I read it too Neapolitan and immediately felt empathy for him. Mr. Fallacy's simple math equation though does supersede all data gathered and studied by the world's best and brightest scientist, who across the board, agree GW is happening and at a startling rate. I personally feel Mr. Fallacy is on the cusp of a scientific breakthrough with his uncanny ability to destroy modern consensus thinking on GW. I'm seriously thinking reconsidering my entire outlook on GW, because that was persuasive and well written and well, I could go on with superlatives all day.
18z GFS 300 hours

Quoting redwagon:


Hermine had the classic whip-tail that brought us 15" in 8 hours. Hermine saved Texas' bacon.

Man, if Hermine hadn't made landfall then, our drought last year would have been that much worse. Following Hermine, there was hardly any rain to speak of; the start of the 2010-2011 drought here.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS 300 hours


I know how that is going to end...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I know how that is going to end...

How?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

How?

It'll go into the Northeast or Newfoundland with that high to its east.
I think someone else mentioned this not too long ago, but even with the rain moving out of the Mobile/Pensacola area at the moment, they aren't completely out of the woods yet.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Weird how they say it continues to organize yet they leave the percentages the same. Let's see what the 00Z ATCF update shows.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll go into the Northeast or Newfoundland with that high to its east.
So that is hurricane Chris? and does the GFS is only forming Chris and Carlotta or is also forming Debby and Daniel in this run?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Weird how they say it continues to organize yet they leave the percentages the same. Let's see what the 00Z ATCF update shows.

I thought so too... I was expecting 50% at 8PM and code red at 2AM. It looks pretty good to me:



Wonder how the last three years turned out?

Wonder if that red line will keep on climbing?

Wonder when people are going to start paying attention?
I don't know for sure (I don't have all of the tools nor the complete knowledge to verify), but I think the flooding that has plagued areas of the middle Gulf coast might have been caused by low echo centroid (LEC) storms. Such storms are characterized by warmer, lower topped convection, very high PWs in excess of 2.0 inches, and extreme rainfall totals. They are generally tropical in nature and most of the storms's reflectivity is below the freezing layer, which means they are exceptionally efficient rainmakers. Radar often has the tendency to underestimate their rainfall totals.

Warm Rain Processes and Low Echo Centroid Storms

Quoting BobWallace:


Wonder how the last three years turned out?

Wonder if that red line will keep on climbing?

Wonder when people are going to start paying attention?


Who cares !!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS 300 hours

Ha ha.


Missing years found.

Something's happening here....
Quoting BobWallace:


Missing years found.

Something's happening here....

It's a conspiracy!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS 300 hours



Quoting washingtonian115:
Ha ha.




And that's my one meme for the day.
Quoting lightning75:


DOOM:CON and DEFCON are different messures



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Great work.


Thank you!
Luckily for the flooded areas, it appears the upstream storms are weakening at the moment. Looks like the atmosphere needs some time to recharge.



Quoting WxGeekVA:






And that's my one meme for the day.
I watched that episode not to long ago.lol.Anywho I'm thinking Debby is a nice bet to since some of the model runs have been showing two storms.Off and on though.
1294. TXCWC
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS does this time develop a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean in 174 hours, but I cannot understand for the life of me why it is so adamant on splitting the system in half.


It developed it on the 12z run as well...what GFS is NOW doing however (12z and now 18z)is running the developing circulation into the Yucatan because of high pressure ridging moving in from the North and East (the 12z Euro actually did this as well today but does not run it back into the Yucatan because of where it initializes storm development). While not an expert I believe it is the land interaction seen on todays runs that is causing the split.
hurricane mitch was a forgotten storm
1296. hydrus
The NAM has a secondary low near the panhandle in 84 hours.
Quoting windshear1993:
hurricane mitch was a forgotten storm


I understand where you are coming from, 1000s of lives lost in Honduras and other countries in CA, I have never forgotten Mitch, for days he was our fearful neighbor about 150-190 miles to our SW nearly stationary, not sure where he might have went next!
1298. hydrus
Quoting windshear1993:
hurricane mitch was a forgotten storm
Not by me.. I thought Mitch was finished, then it came and hit us in South Florida...
1299. txjac
Wow, kind of depressed that this rain even didnt come further west ...we need some rain here ...guess I realy should start watering the foundation again.

I was trying to stay positive that some of this would meander our way here to Houston
Quoting hydrus:
Not by me.. I thought Mitch was finished, then it came and hit us in South Florida...
but the death toll is unbearable and not many people talk about it today which is odd to me
Invest 93E is no longer being classified as a disturbance. It has been redesignated as a low-pressure area. Winds and pressure are unchanged.

EP, 93, 2012061000, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1062W, 25, 1008, LO
Quoting windshear1993:
hurricane mitch was a forgotten storm
Not by some old friends nor the 10,000 dead families.if you come and say this in the place I am right now many would call you insensitive but to tell you the truth Fifi was worse in the north coast than Mitch was.Mitch was worse in Central Honduras in cities like Tegucigalpa. Fifi is a storm my family can`t forget my mom lost three cousins with her my grandma house was flooded.
I hope the rain stops over there and everyone comes through the floods alright. Got some more of that fire rain around here. Looks like the smoke will be coming my way tomorrow.

OF NOTE FOR INTERESTS IN AND ALONG GALVESTON BAY...A WILDFIRE IN
EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMOKE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD OVER THE BAY. AS THE SUN SETS THIS SMOKE WILL BEGIN TO
SETTLE AND COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS SPARKED A WILDFIRE IN SOUTHEASTERN
CHAMBERS COUNTY. LATEST UPDATES FROM COUNTY OFFICIALS INDICATE
THIS FIRE MAY CONTINUE TO BURN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SMOKE FROM THE FIRE WAS DRIVEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TODAY...LOWERING
THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES EARLIER IN THE MORNING IN GALVESTON BAY
AND GALVESTON ISLAND.

AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS SMOKE TO SETTLE CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE. THE STEERING WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO MORE TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

JUST ISSUED A SPS INCLUDING MORE DETAILS FOR THE GALVESTON BAY
AREA.
1304. hydrus
Quoting windshear1993:
but the death toll is unbearable and not many people talk about it today which is odd to me
The sad part to me is they will never really know what the final death toll was. I guess its irrelevant, it was a disaster of epic proportions and some say in 50 years from now the areas hit still will not have recovered.---WIKI..Formed October 22, 1998
Dissipated November 5, 1998
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
180 mph (285 km/h)
Lowest pressure 905 mbar (hPa); 26.72 inHg
Fatalities-- 19, 325
Damage $6.2 billion (1998 USD)
Areas affected Central America (particularly Hondurasand Nicaragua), Yucat%uFFFDn Peninsula, South Florida
Part of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Mitch was the most powerful hurricane and the most destructive of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (285 km/h). The storm was the thirteenth tropical storm, ninth hurricane, and third major hurricane of the season. Along with Hurricane Georges, Mitch was the most notable hurricane in the season. At the time, Hurricane Mitch was the strongest Atlantic hurricane observed in the month of October, though it has since been surpassed by Hurricane Wilma of the 2005 season. The hurricane matched the fourth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record (it has since dropped to seventh).

Mitch formed in the western Caribbean Sea on October 22, and after drifting through extremely favorable conditions, it rapidly strengthened to peak at Category 5 status, the highest possible rating on the Saffir%u2013Simpson Hurricane Scale. After drifting southwestward and weakening, the hurricane hit Honduras as a minimal hurricane. It drifted through Central America, reformed in the Bay of Campeche, and ultimately struck Florida as a strong tropical storm.

Due to its slow motion from October 29 to November 3, Hurricane Mitch dropped historic amounts of rainfall in Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua, with unofficial reports of up to 75 inches (1,900 mm). Deaths due to catastrophic flooding made it the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane in history; nearly 11,000 people were killed with over 11,000 left missing by the end of 1998. Additionally, roughly 2.7 million were left homeless as a result of the hurricane. The flooding caused extreme damage, estimated at over $6 billion (1998 USD, $8.56 billion 2012 USD).This image shows the Casita volcano in western Nicaragua after a mudslide caused by Hurricane Mitch in October of 1998.
Date 15 December 1998
Quoting allancalderini:
Not by some old friends nor the 10,000 dead families.if you come and say this in the place I am right now many would call you insensitive but to tell you the truth Fifi was worse in the north coast than Mitch was.Mitch was worse in Central Honduras in cities like Tegucigalpa. Fifi is a storm my family can`t forget my mom lost three cousins with her my grandma house was flooded.
omg i dont mean it like that im just sayin people dont talk about it as much as katrina or andrew and andrew happened 20 years ago
Quoting txjac:
Wow, kind of depressed that this rain even didnt come further west ...we need some rain here ...guess I realy should start watering the foundation again.

I was trying to stay positive that some of this would meander our way here to Houston


Sorry y'all didn't get any rains.
Quoting allancalderini:
Not by some old friends nor the 10,000 dead that family miss .if you come and say this in the place I am right now many would call you insensitive but to tell you the truth Fifi was worse in the north coast than Mitch was.Mitch was worse in Central Honduras in cities like Tegucigalpa. Fifi is a storm my family can`t forget my mom lost three cousins with her my grandma house was flooded.
I just made a blog entry, be sure to check it out!

Invest 93E forms in the East Pacific
In my non-professional, amateur opinion 93E needs to be given a red circle in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook soon. All of the global models make this a tropical storm within 24 hours and it is already technically very organized.

...Where did everybody run off to?

posted pics of the flooding in Pcola on my photos on here. Will try to post more later. These were taken hours after the heaviest of the rain stopped. Hasn't rained in a while, we maxed out at our weather station at 13.97 although some got over 19 inches. More rain due later tonight and they are predicting a total of 20-30 inches through sunday night. With more to come the rest of the week, just hope we don't get Chris up here!!!
763

WHXX01 KMIA 100036

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0036 UTC SUN JUN 10 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932012) 20120610 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120610 0000 120610 1200 120611 0000 120611 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.5N 106.2W 9.9N 107.2W 10.5N 108.7W 11.2N 110.4W

BAMD 9.5N 106.2W 9.8N 108.4W 10.4N 110.8W 10.7N 113.3W

BAMM 9.5N 106.2W 9.7N 107.9W 10.1N 109.8W 10.6N 112.1W

LBAR 9.5N 106.2W 9.8N 108.4W 10.2N 110.9W 10.9N 114.0W

SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 53KTS

DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 53KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120612 0000 120613 0000 120614 0000 120615 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.0N 112.4W 13.3N 116.9W 13.7N 122.0W 12.1N 127.5W

BAMD 11.1N 115.7W 10.5N 120.2W 8.3N 123.8W 6.4N 125.6W

BAMM 11.0N 114.4W 11.1N 118.4W 10.1N 121.7W 8.7N 124.3W

LBAR 11.6N 117.5W 12.4N 123.9W 11.3N 128.3W 9.5N 126.2W

SHIP 65KTS 74KTS 79KTS 81KTS

DSHP 65KTS 74KTS 79KTS 81KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 106.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 104.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 102.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Quoting 1900hurricane:
I don't know for sure (I don't have all of the tools nor the complete knowledge to verify), but I think the flooding that has plagued areas of the middle Gulf coast might have been caused by low echo centroid (LEC) storms. Such storms are characterized by warmer, lower topped convection, very high PWs in excess of 2.0 inches, and extreme rainfall totals. They are generally tropical in nature and most of the storms's reflectivity is below the freezing layer, which means they are exceptionally efficient rainmakers. Radar often has the tendency to underestimate their rainfall totals.

Warm Rain Processes and Low Echo Centroid Storms




This also applies to all convection of tropical nature whether shallow or tall. Even with much taller convective cells, you have a massive amount of water vapor near the lower quadrant of the cell, the farther up the warmer air extends and the higher the atmospheric moisture the more this process is intensified. As you might already know with tropical cyclones, they are quite shallow, however this is despite that convective cells frequently reach 45 to 55,000 ft near the core. Basically most of the "weather" in a tropical convective cell is near the lower quadrant, or should I say increases as you head toward the base. This is why reflectivity with tropical cyclones is ofen much less impressive than what it's like to actually experience. Often what appears to be moderate rain can actually be heavy convection with torrential downpours. I learned growing up around here that you better find an ark quick when you start seeing 50 TO 60 dbz in tropical cyclone rain bands. The opposite occurs with more "cold cored" convection. Often times the radar thinks it is heavier than it is due to more ice and lower mass of water vapor and liquid water falling to the ground.



I personally am extra intrigued with tropical weather, more so than "regular" weather. I'm thinking about continuing into graduate school as a focus on tropical meteorology at FSU after I finish my bachelors degree.




Quoting allancalderini:
Not by some old friends nor the 10,000 dead families.if you come and say this in the place I am right now many would call you insensitive but to tell you the truth Fifi was worse in the north coast than Mitch was.Mitch was worse in Central Honduras in cities like Tegucigalpa. Fifi is a storm my family can`t forget my mom lost three cousins with her my grandma house was flooded.
oh sorry
Poll: What will 93E peak as...

A. It won't develop further
B. Weak/Moderate TS
C. Strong TS
D. Cat 1/2 Hurricane
E. Major Hurricane

I say D 75mph.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Poll: What will 93E peak as

A. It won't develop further
B. Weak/Moderate TS
C. Strong TS
D. Cat 1/2 Hurricane
E. Major Hurricane

I say D 75mph.

I'm going to say D. for me, but a major hurricane is definitely a possibility if it can take advantage of the absolute peak favorable conditions between 48-72 hours out. Heat content will be barely favorable for it to strengthen unusually rapid, but I could definitely see a Category 2 hurricane out of this (not that I showed that in my blog :P)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm going to say D. for me, but a major hurricane is definitely a possibility if it can take advantage of the absolute peak favorable conditions between 48-72 hours out. Heat content will be barely favorable for it to strengthen unusually rapid, but I could definitely see a Category 2 hurricane out of this (not that I showed that in my blog :P)

I read your blog! I was even nice enough to plus it :P
1317. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In my non-professional, amateur opinion 93E needs to be given a red circle in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook soon. All of the global models make this a tropical storm within 24 hours and it is already technically very organized.

...Where did everybody run off to?



That is one pretty invest.
And I'm liking its track. Go 93E! XD

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Poll: What will 93E peak as...

A. It won't develop further
B. Weak/Moderate TS
C. Strong TS
D. Cat 1/2 Hurricane
E. Major Hurricane

I say D 75mph.


E. I hope it becomes a Cat 5 monster and sets records. And I only do so because it isn't going to affect any land areas.
Quoting Jedkins01:



This also applies to all convection of tropical nature whether shallow or tall. Even with much taller convective cells, you have a massive amount of water vapor near the lower quadrant of the cell, the farther up the warmer air extends and the higher the atmospheric moisture the more this process is intensified. As you might already know with tropical cyclones, they are quite shallow, however this is despite that convective cells frequently reach 45 to 55,000 ft near the core. Basically most of the "weather" in a tropical convective cell is near the lower quadrant, or should I say increases as you head toward the base. This is why reflectivity with tropical cyclones is ofen much less impressive than what it's like to actually experience. Often what appears to be moderate rain can actually be heavy convection with torrential downpours. I learned growing up around here that you better find an ark quick when you start seeing 50 TO 60 dbz in tropical cyclone rain bands. The opposite occurs with more "cold cored" convection. Often times the radar thinks it is heavier than it is due to more ice and lower mass of water vapor and liquid water falling to the ground.



I personally am extra intrigued with tropical weather, more so than "regular" weather. I'm thinking about continuing into graduate school as a focus on tropical meteorology at FSU after I finish my bachelors degree.





Thanks for that explanation. Much of that stuff I had suspected but wasn't sure about since I am at the moment not as well versed with such storms as I could be.

As for your fascination with tropical weather, well that makes two of us. I am also considering graduate school after my undergrad and specializing in tropical, and FSU is very high on my list for that. Maybe we'll meet each other someday.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Poll: What will 93E peak as...

A. It won't develop further
B. Weak/Moderate TS
C. Strong TS
D. Cat 1/2 Hurricane
E. Major Hurricane

I say D 75mph.


I pick D.
When the instability recovers, I'd be looking for more storm development near the Mouth of the Mississippi that would move northeast from there. PWs seem to be pooling up in that location and it seems that some fanning out is occurring around the 300 mb level.



Good night everyone... Probably the beginnings of a pinhole eye right here :)

Quoting WxGeekVA:






And that's my one meme for the day.
Hahahah +1
Quoting 1900hurricane:
When the instability recovers, I'd be looking for more storm development near the Mouth of the Mississippi that would move northeast from there. PWs seem to be pooling up in that location and it seems that some fanning out is occurring around the 300 mb level.




That whole area is in a RRQ of a jet, which aids ventilation of storms that form. with PW that high... bad news if you don't want the rain.
I know this isn't related to the topic...but is anyone else watching the Jersey Shore shark attack movie on Sci-Fi?.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
State of emergency in Escambia:

Several areas of Escambia County are being flooded this afternoon, prompting Escambia County officials to declare a state of emerency as of 3 p.m. today.

Here is the latest news from the county:

• The National Weather Service is forecasting and additional 12 to 15 inches of rainfall between now and midnight Sunday night. This makes the total projected rain fall for this event between 20 and 30 inches.

• Residents living in low-lying areas and areas prone to flooding are encouraged to evacuate.

• Escambia County Emergency Management has activated its Citizen Information Line. Residents can call (850) 471-6600 for information.

Link


That doesn't sound right. I do not know where the NWS ever forecasted 12-15" of rainfall, even before this happened. I'm thinking that they took something out of context, like the forecast for the storm total for a particular area.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That doesn't sound right. I do not know where the NWS ever forecasted 12-15" of rainfall, even before this happened. I'm thinking that they took something out of context, like the forecast for the storm total for a particular area.

It's not right. The NWS is only forecasting 4-8 more inches of rainfall in Escambia.

Gotta love the media though. Hypes everything.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Thanks for that explanation. Much of that stuff I had suspected but wasn't sure about since I am at the moment not as well versed with such storms as I could be.

As for your fascination with tropical weather, well that makes two of us. I am also considering graduate school after my undergrad and specializing in tropical, and FSU is very high on my list for that. Maybe we'll meet each other someday.



Maybe so! I will probably be starting meteorology at FSU this January.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not right. The NWS is only forecasting 4-8 more inches of rainfall in Escambia.

Gotta love the media though. Hypes everything.


Yeah, they won't get 20 to 30 inches, what they have had is already bad enough and the atmosphere will be somewhat worked over. It took all day to get thunderstorms going over Florida today for example, because days of overcast and periods of heavy rainfall sure did stabilize things...


I like the local weather here, they don't hype things.
are wee overdue for a cat 5 hurricane?
Quoting windshear1993:
are wee overdue for a cat 5 hurricane?

Yes. We usually get one every 2-3 years and we've not had one since 2007.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In September 2010 we had Igor at nearly Category 5 intensity, Karl rapidly intensifying into a Category 3 hurricane, and Julia reaching its peak as a Category 4 hurricane.
Yah... good bloggin' days.... lol

Evening all.

Quoting windshear1993:
hurricane mitch was a forgotten storm
Huh? By whom?

Quoting windshear1993:
omg i dont mean it like that im just sayin people dont talk about it as much as katrina or andrew and andrew happened 20 years ago
It might not get talked about as much as you expect, but I seriously doubt Mitch will ever be forgotten. I remember at the time thinking Georges was going to be the storm of the season - it was pretty bad - and then Mitch blew up. The storm that surpassed Mitch's death toll happened hundreds of years ago, during a time when hurricanes were practically mythological. IIRC, for a very long time a picture of Mitch was the iconic cyclone on the pages of several NOAA TC imagery archives.

People may not say much about Mitch, but I don't think it's because they have forgotten. Maybe, for some of us, it's because we remember better than we would like.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes. We usually get one every 2-3 years and we've not had one since 2007.

we're waaaaaaaay over due.Could this be the year?.It is 2012 after all...