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Hottest rain on record? Rain falls at 109°F in Saudi Arabia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:24 AM GMT on June 07, 2012

Pilgrims to the holy city of Mekkah (Mecca), Saudi Arabia must have been astonished on Tuesday afternoon, June 5, when the weather transformed from widespread dust with a temperature of 113°F (45°C) to a thunderstorm with rain. Remarkably, the air temperature during the thunderstorm was a sizzling 109°F (43°C), and the relative humidity a scant 18%. It is exceedingly rare to get rain when the temperature rises above 100°F, since those kind of temperatures usually require a high pressure system with sinking air that discourages rainfall. However, on June 4, a sea breeze formed along the shores of the Red Sea, and pushed inland 45 miles (71 km) to Mekkah by mid-afternoon. Moist air flowing eastwards from the Red Sea hit the boundary of the sea breeze and was forced upwards, creating rain-bearing thunderstorms. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the highest known temperature that rain has fallen at, anywhere in the world. He knows of one other case where rain occurred at 109°F (43°C): in Marrakech, Morocco on July 10, 2010. A thunderstorm that began at 5 pm local time brought rain at a remarkably low humidity of 14%, cooling the temperature down to 91°F within an hour.



Figure 1. Thunderstorms at 109°F? This true-color satellite image of Saudi Arabia taken at 2:10 pm local time (11:10 UTC) on June 5, 2012, shows a line of thunderstorms that developed along the edge of the sea breeze from the Red Sea. Three hours after this image was taken, Mekkah (Mecca) recorded a thunderstorm with rain and a temperature of 109°F (43°C.) Image credit: NASA.

More like a hot shower than a cooling rain?
Thunderstorms often produce big drops of cold rain, since these raindrops form several thousand meters high in the atmosphere, where temperatures are much cooler than near the surface. Some drops even get their start as snow or ice particles, which melt on the way to the surface. Additional cooling of the drops occurs due to evaporation on the way down. However, in the case of the June 4, 2012 Mekkah storm, I think the rain was probably more like a hot shower. Large raindrops, like the kind thunderstorms produce, fall at a speed of about 10 meters per second. A balloon sounding of the upper atmosphere taken at 3 pm local time at a nearby station (Al-Midinah) found that the bottom 1000 meters of the atmosphere was 97°F (36°C) or warmer. Thus, the thunderstorms' raindrops would have been subjected to 100 seconds of some very hot air on the way to the surface, likely warming them above 100°F by the time they hit the ground. A classic 1948 study of raindrops found that, in many cases, raindrop temperatures start off cold in the first few minutes of a rain shower, then warm up to within 1°C (1.8°F) of the air temperature within a few minutes. With the air temperature a sizzling 109°F (43°C) at the time of the June 4 thunderstorm in Mekkah, the raindrops could easily have been heated to a temperature of over 105°F (41°C) by the time they reached the surface!

How hot can it be and still rain?
If substantial amounts of liquid water are present on the Earth, the planet will experience rain, as long as some mechanism to lift the warm, moist air and cause condensation can be found. If the climate continues to warm as expected, we should see an increasing number of cases where it rains at temperatures well above 100°F. On Saturday, June 2, the temperature in Mekkah hit 51.4°C (124.5°F), a new record for the city, and just 1.1°F (0.6°C) below the all-time hottest temperature record for Saudi Arabia (125.6°F, or 52°C, recorded at Jeddah on June 22, 2010.) I expect that 20 - 40 years from now, we'll begin seeing occasional cases where rain falls at a temperature above 117°F (47°C) in the desert regions of North Africa and the Middle East.

I'll have a new post by Friday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting washingtonian115:
So?.Why does someone always think someone is copying Levi...Here I'm gonna say Chris will form on July 1st.Got that?.lol.


Woah going out on a limb there:P
Quoting KoritheMan:

My forecasts are my own. If they happen to agree with some dude with big credentials, it's purely by coincidence.

Same here.
Quoting Chicklit:
Link Cell approaching I24 in colorado


Hope everyone is staying safe..
hmmmm...


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Same here.
One of the reasons I respect you.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I am 100% sure I am alive. U Mad Quantum Physics?


no you think you are 100% sure you are alive, and there is a 99.9999999...% chance you are right.
And there is no garuntee you will stay alive. :)

As for quantum physics, nothing is sure to happen, but once it has happened it has happened.
So, weatherh98 was referring to predictions, in which case he is right.
Quoting wxhatt:
hmmmm...


THAT'S what I'm talking about!!!!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no you think you are 100% sure you were alive, but there is a 99.9999999...% chance you are right.
And there is no garuntee you will stay alive. :)

As for quantum physics, nothing is sure to happen, but once it has happened it has happened.
So, weatherh98 was referring to predictions, in which case he is right.


which is what the theory is based on...
Quoting Chicklit:
Link Cell approaching 24 in colorado



Massive hail core in that one
Quoting KoritheMan:

My forecasts are my own. If they happen to agree with some dude with big credentials, it's purely by coincidence.
Exactly.
Quoting weatherh98:


Woah going out on a limb there:P
Well everyone said the 15th.So I'm going with the first :).OK joking.But I do think something will form mid month.The exact date?.That's for nature to decide.
Quoting weatherh98:


which is what the theory is based on...


that is what i said :P
Don't understand at all our local Met's,they has been saying for the last 3 days that we are going to have a lot of rain and storms here in South Florida.
Not a drop of rain today!!!,don't know where they are getting their information???,tomorrow 60% chance of rain and storms here in South Florida??.
Quoting thunderbug91:

Hope everyone is staying safe..

I am assuming this is the nasty looking cell SE of Denver, correct?
653 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2012

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... +northeastern El Paso County in east central Colorado...

* until 730 PM MDT

* at 650 PM MDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous storm was located 9 miles north of Ramah...or 27 miles west of
Limon...and moving south at 20 mph. This storm has a history of producing tornadoes.

* Locations impacted include...
Ramah and Calhan.
Quoting Chicklit:

I am assuming this is the nasty looking cell SE of Denver, correct?
653 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2012

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... +northeastern El Paso County in east central Colorado...

* until 730 PM MDT

* at 650 PM MDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous storm was located 9 miles north of Ramah...or 27 miles west of
Limon...and moving south at 20 mph. This storm has a history of producing tornadoes.

* Locations impacted include...
Ramah and Calhan.

That's the one...
Quoting wxhatt:
hmmmm...

GFS sure hates Florida this year so far.Will this pattern set in for the season?.Mmmm.

thunderbug91 were you born in the 1991.Just curious...
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Don't understand at all our local Met's,they has been saying for the last 3 days that we are going to have a lot of rain and storms here in South Florida.
Not a drop of rain today!!!,don't know where they are getting their information???,tomorrow 60% chance of rain and storms here in South Florida??.

Up here We've been getting drowned all day, and we have more coming in about 30 minutes...
good night all, 9pm edt always sneaks up on me like this.
I say Chris between 10-14 days, 67.943% likely
Quoting thunderbug91:

That's the one...

nasty...looks like it's headed for the 24/I-70 intersection. That could turn a tractor trailer topsy turvy I'll bet.
Quoting Chicklit:

nasty...looks like it's headed for the 24/I-70 intersection. That will topple a tractor trailor I bet.

And remove many windshields....
Quoting thunderbug91:

THAT'S what I'm talking about!!!!



There is a thing I learned about the GFS a long time ago. It may not have the timing or the position of a potential storm correct, but it is usually pretty good at 'pattern recognition'. So it sees the upward motion in that general area and that western atlantic ridge in place. I'd put a greater than 50 percent chance that we will see something in the eastern gulf in a couple weeks.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
good night all, 9pm edt always sneaks up on me like this.
I say Chris between 10-14 days, 67.943% likely

Oddly specific.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
good night all, 9pm edt always sneaks up on me like this.
I say Chris between 10-14 days, 67.943% likely

I'm right behind ya Stormz.
Enjoyed the discussions.
Quoting KoritheMan:

One of the reasons I respect you.
KORITHEMAN!!! Glad to hear from you, it's always an honor to have one of the true greats on the website!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Exactly.Well everyone said the 15th.So I'm going with the first :).OK joking.But I do think something will form mid month.The exact date?.That's for nature to decide.


my countdown is 11 days.

Quoting kipperedherring:
KORITHEMAN!!! Glad to hear from you, it's always an honor to have one of the true greats on the website!!!
Hey, thanks. How are you today?
Quoting thunderbug91:

And remove many windshields....


really? dang. guess that would be 'crawl into the ditch' time if you can't get out of its way.
Anybody have cloud top height image on that one?

Link Intellicast
Quoting weatherh98:


my countdown is 11 days.
I need something to track.Even if Chris lives by it's legacy of being a weak storm.
Anyone else tracking that storm in East-Central Colorado? It has strong rotation, a confirmed tornado, 70mph winds at least and baseball size hail.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Anyone else tracking that storm in East-Central Colorado? It has strong rotation, a confirmed tornado, 70mph winds at least and baseball size hail.


thunderbug and chicklet
Quoting yqt1001:
A very similar thing happened last year. The blog was drooling over model runs of Arlene on the June 15-25th region with hurricane landfalls on Texas (and the raincasters started to pray for this to happen).

Then the models kept pushing the date farther and farther behind...eventually everyone gave up on it's formation. It did eventually form, but not after the models moved it 3 weeks. :P

Though the models are being surprisingly consistent this time around.
I must exculpate myself from your statement. I never once drooled over the model runs that were pertinent to Arlene. I may have had a semi, but at no time during the model runs did I drool or slobber. I resent your remark sir, and demand a complete and full pardon...:)
Quoting KoritheMan:

Hey, thanks. How are you today?
Good! Hope all is well with you! I may have missed it earlier, but what are your thoughts on the GFS and development in the gulf around mid-month?
Another lovely day. Watching the pop up stationary storms hovering / streaming off of the Chattahoochee / Nantahala National forests (N. Carolina/Georgia border)

Whenever I see that I wonder about the mechanism at play. Would we have more showers in North/mid Gerogia if the forest was still around? Would it happen less if the area was uniform in forest? Is it due to the air streaming south over the mountains interacting with atmospheric moisture? The showers happen quite often in the late afternoons/evenings. No showers around elsewhere, at least not at first, just over the forested areas.
While I think a storm around this time is possible the intensity forecast on the 18z GFS is way overdone



18z GFS has a notorious record for being the worst run so don't get too excited.

Quoting kipperedherring:
Good! Hope all is well with you! I may have missed it earlier, but what are your thoughts on the GFS and development in the gulf around mid-month?
I'm buying it. The synoptic pattern favors it, especially with the upward MJO forecast to swing back this-a-way.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
While I think a storm around this time is possible the intensity forecast on the 18z GFS is way overdone



18z GFS has a notorious record for being the worst run so don't get too excited.

We won't know until it happens. Monsoonal circulations take a while to spin up, but when they, do usually intensify quickly afterwards.
Quoting hydrus:
I must exculpate myself from your statement. I never once drooled over the model runs that were pertinent to Arlene. I may have had a semi, but at no time during the model runs did I drool or slobber. I resent your remark sir, and demand a complete and full pardon...:)
Stop trying to sound intelligent and articulate...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Anyone else tracking that storm in East-Central Colorado? It has strong rotation, a confirmed tornado, 70mph winds at least and baseball size hail.


I never saved the image for the cloud top height site so don't have the link but it would be interesting to see that one .
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
While I think a storm around this time is possible the intensity forecast on the 18z GFS is way overdone



18z GFS has a notorious record for being the worst run so don't get too excited.


Thats cooky
Quoting washingtonian115:
Stop trying to sound intelligent and articulate...
sniffle,...whine...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Anyone else tracking that storm in East-Central Colorado? It has strong rotation, a confirmed tornado, 70mph winds at least and baseball size hail.


Link Pueblo Radar

It's headed toward Simla Colorado
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We won't know until it happens. Monsoonal circulations take a while to spin up, but when they, do usually intensify quickly afterwards.


thought it was harder for monsoonal storms to go the rapid intensification.
Quoting weatherh98:


thought it was harder for monsoonal storms to go the rapid intensification.

Alex is a prime example of a storm that took a long time (8 days!) to consolidate, but then rapidly intensified in the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico.

Alex was of true, true monsoonal origins though so it shouldn't take this system nearly as long.
Quoting hydrus:
sniffle,...whine...
I'm just kidding around :).You bestowed such a beautiful well written opinion.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm buying it. The synoptic pattern favors it, especially with the upward MJO forecast to swing back this-a-way.
Thanks Kori! I think I'm with you! Any thoughts on intensity ??
I'd say there is a solid 60-70% chance we get "Chris" between June 15 and June 20.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Alex is a prime example of a storm that took a long time (8 days!) to consolidate, but then rapidly intensified in the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico.

Alex was of true, true monsoonal origins though so it shouldn't take this system nearly as long.

I just read that monsoonal storms take longer to go and then can go through RI due to lots of moisture. like you said

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Alex is a prime example of a storm that took a long time (8 days!) to consolidate, but then rapidly intensified in the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico.

Alex was of true, true monsoonal origins though so it shouldn't take this system nearly as long.
Alex is also just one of many such storms, so generalizing an entire set based on it is wrong.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'd say there is a solid 60-70% chance we get "Chris" between June 15 and June 20.

What do you think about the chances of Carlotta preceding Chris by a couple days? Seems like there's pretty good agreement on that in the models.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Alex is also just one of many such storms, so generalizing an entire set based on it is wrong.

I simply used Alex as a prime example with it being the closest in time. Obviously not all consolidate slowly and rapidly intensify afterwards, but many have been known to.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm just kidding around :).You bestowed such a beautiful well written opinion.
I like it when you post those.. It adds humor to the blog.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What do you think about the chances of Carlotta preceding Chris by a couple days? Seems like there's pretty good agreement on that in the models.

Yeah, I'd give it about the same percentage (60-70%).

Quoting kipperedherring:
Thanks Kori! I think I'm with you! Any thoughts on intensity ??
Based on a reasonable average of the model runs over the last several days, and of course climatology, I'll say a moderate to strong tropical storm.
The storm in Colorado has three active tornado warnings on it right now... That one would be perfect to chase.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The storm in Colorado has three active tornado warnings on it right now... That one would be perfect to track.


Long way out, but the gfs has the trough moving east now. Might be taking on a negative tilt..
SW Caribbean, shear dropping, Tropical wave approaching, watch the Colombia coast for convection emerging in the SW Caribbean Sea for "potential" development! JMO.
Quoting stormpetrol:
SW Caribbean, shear dropping, Tropical wave approaching, watch the Colombia coast for convection emerging in the SW Caribbean Sea for "potential" development! JMO.



i havent looked at it
It's Raining :)

Quoting weatherh98:



i havent looked at it


Link
Link

Quoting hydrus:
Might be taking on a negative tilt..
Ooh, this guy knows his stuff! ;)
561. TXCWC
Almost within 10 day Euro forecast period - very interested to see what it will say - I do think there will be a storm, question will be on which side:

Quoting stormpetrol:


Link
Link


Thanks for that

i have the cimss link thanks anyway
Quoting TXCWC:
Almost within 10 day Euro forecast period - very interested to see what it will say - I do think there will be a storm, question will be on which side:

Possibly both.
And I agree that it will be very important for this storm to get the support of the Euro... If the Euro is going to pick this one up it would start doing so tomorrow when it gets in range.
And since it picked up on the East Pac storm the GFS has been showing I think it's pretty likely it picks up Chris.
Quoting TXCWC:
Almost within 10 day Euro forecast period - very interested to see what it will say - I do think there will be a storm, question will be on which side:

I say both. "Carlotta" two to three days before "Chris".
I think Ernesto is goin to be a major I can feal it
Quoting windshear1993:
I think Ernesto is goin to be a major I can feal it

Isaac will be a Cat 5 for sure.

Good night everyone :)
it seems like the pacific and Atlantic are competing
568. TXCWC
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I say both. "Carlotta" two to three days before "Chris".


Wouldn't 1 storm interfer with the development of the other? Seems like they would be pretty close to each other, yes, no?
Quoting windshear1993:
I think Ernesto is goin to be a major I can feal it


no

this is a major
Quoting TXCWC:


Wouldn't 1 storm interfer with the development of the other? Seems like they would be pretty close to each other, yes, no?
This morning's depiction of Carlotta on the ECMWF depicted a rather large circulation, so I would say yes, at least initially.
Quoting weatherh98:


no

this is a major
haha mabe but issac for sure lol ;p
Quoting windshear1993:
I think Ernesto is goin to be a major I can feal it


I think it will be Kirk. I asked Cleverbot and he said so.
Quoting weatherh98:


no

this is a major


Am I the only one who likes looking at naked swirls almost as much as major hurricanes? Both are elegant in their own way.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I think it will be Kirk. I asked Cleverbot and he said so.


I was talking about kurt with TA13
Quoting KoritheMan:


Am I the only one who likes looking at naked swirls almost as much as major hurricanes? Both are elegant in their own way.


I think it looks way cool
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I think it will be Kirk. I asked Cleverbot and he said so.


Quoting WxGeekVA on December 1st 2011:

Breaking News: Cleverbot says that Florida will get hit by a major hurricane next year!!!!

Me: Will the United
States get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: No, the flamingos will.
Me: So Florida is going to
get hit?
Cleverbot: No, Florida is a state.
Me: I mean, is Florida going to get hit by a major hurricane next
year?
Cleverbot: Probably.
Me: How many?
Cleverbot: Me.
Me: You are a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: No
.
Me: I'm going to ask you again: Are you a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: Yes.
Me: What is your hurricane
name?
Cleverbot: Kirkland is my middle name.
Me: You will be Major Huricane Kirk, and hit Florida, right?

Cleverbot: Indeed.
Quoting weatherh98:


I was talking about kurt with TA13
It might be too late for Kirk lol elnino might crush the later half of the season take 2009 hurricane Ida for example that year didn't even make it to the "k" named storm
Quoting windshear1993:
It might be too late for Kirk lol elnino might crush the later half of the season take 2009 hurricane Ida for example that year didn't even make it to the "k" named storm


2009 had a strong El Nino. 2012 should not.
Quoting yqt1001:


lmao!!
good night its too late
Quoting windshear1993:
It might be too late for Kirk lol elnino might crush the later half of the season take 2009 hurricane Ida for example that year didn't even make it to the "k" named storm

2009 was a very inactive season that featured a strong El Nino and unfavorable conditions. All indications point to the fact that 2012 is not going to be like that.
My vote for the flagship storm this season is Gordon. I feel like it's an appropriate major hurricane name.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

2009 was a very inactive season that featured a strong El Nino and unfavorable conditions. All indications point to the fact that 2012 is not going to be like that.
yea I hope not I want something to be worth watching this season unlike 2009 ..fish storms are good enough 2010 hurricane Danielle for example ;p
Quoting windshear1993:
I think Ernesto is goin to be a major I can feal it

I think Ernesto and Isaac will both be major hurricanes. But i tihnk Isaac will hit the USA. I think this because I storms can mean big trouble for us... Examples: Isabel, Ivan, Irene
Quoting weatherh98:
good night its too late


Oh please; I've been up since 8:30. :P
18z Ensemble Members





also shows it missing the eastern side of florida and hitting the bahamas and NC
Next year...BEWARE HURRICANE INGRID.

Lol just kidding. Ida aside, I feel like the new I names are less ominous in comparison to the old ones.
Quoting yqt1001:




Yep, That's it!
Squeeze play

Quoting Doppler22:

I think Ernesto and Isaac will both be major hurricanes. But i tihnk Isaac will hit the USA. I think this because I storms can mean big trouble for us... Examples: Isabel, Ivan, Irene
Isidore and Ike too :p
Outflow boundary that was coming south from Houston has fizzled and has stalled on top of me right now in middle Galveston county, two areas of storms moving towards each other and I'm dead center of it
this is going to be a long season it seems like June is rushing were almOst in mid june seems like beryl was yesterday
Quoting RitaEvac:
Outflow boundary that was coming south from Houston has fizzled and has stalled on top of me right now in middle Galveston county, two areas of storms moving towards each other and I'm dead center of it


Hope you get some rain. I enjoyed my Shawshank moment. :)
Big Wave over Venezuela

Quoting RitaEvac:
Outflow boundary that was coming south from Houston has fizzled and has stalled on top of me right now in middle Galveston county, two areas of storms moving towards each other and I'm dead center of it


lets hope it holds together. Looks like a broad area of rain West of Houston. Maybe this L pressure will establish itself over the coastal area and give us some much needed rain.
Looks like there's still a chance

From Lake Charles

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA. LOOKING AT THE MORNING KLCH SOUNDING... WHEN
MODIFIED TO THE LOW 90S, CAPE WILL BE AROUND 2K J/KG WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW ROBUST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH ADDED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, AND PWATS
AROUND 1.75 WILL ALLOW SCT TSRA TO CONTINUE UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
IS LOST.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND WESTERN GULF... A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AN UPPER
LOW OVER TX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SE TOWARD THE CWA, AND A
WEAK AND BROAD LOW OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BROAD LOW WILL AID MASS CONVERGENCE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SHORT WAVE PROVIDES UPPER DIVERGENCE.
BASICALLY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA SAT AND SUN AS MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTH FROM THE GULF THEN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LATER SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2". A RETURN OF
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE COMING WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
HIGHER AROUND STORMS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER THE PLAINS WHICH
WILL INCREASE SOUTH WINDS TO AROUND 15KTS OR MORE
Anyone notice much of the Mediterranean Sea is well above average in SST anomalies?   Red is 25 degrees C.


A little off the topic, but not by much.

What if we had a tropical system like this hurricane in 1906? What would happen to the blog? Feud for thought. :)

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


lets hope it holds together. Looks like a broad area of rain West of Houston. Maybe this L pressure will establish itself over the coastal area and give us some much needed rain.


How much did you get earlier?
Door is closing in, gonna be critical on where the cells form, one cell near Baytown popped, hopefully everything is gonna light up on radar lil later
HPC showing low pressure in the EPAC/Caribbean on the extended





Looks like a meso has formed to the west near Wharton and Needville
Quoting DavidHOUTX:

lets hope it holds together. Looks like a broad area of rain West of Houston. Maybe this L pressure will establish itself over the coastal area and give us some much needed rain.




How much did you get earlier?
Door is closing in, gonna be critical on where the cells form, one cell near Baytown popped, hopefully everything is gonna light up on radar lil later
Quoting cyclonekid:
A little off the topic, but not by much.

What if we had a tropical system like this hurricane in 1906? What would happen to the blog? Feud for thought. :)

omg I looked that up yesterday and thought wow could we ever see a crazy track like that again..and hurricane Inez is another example of a crazy track and I'm thinking hurricane jeane too :o
Rapidly moving outflow boundary coming at me from the SW, incoming outflow boundary coming at me from NE, with stalled out washed out boundary directly over me...go ahead there fella... make my day

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18Z GFS run actually makes sense. We get low pressure in the Atlantic and the East Pacific, both competing. Eventually the East Pacific low/tropical storm is absorbed into the Atlantic low/tropical storm which moves northward due to a trough. It strengthens to strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane status before landfall in Florida.

While the intensity/track obviously isn't set in stone, I'd say it's likely that we'll get Chris between June 15 and 20.
Wait, why does it make anymore sense than any other model run? I'm confused lol.

Given current ensemble runs, I actually find the 18z quite unrealistic. GFS and ECMWF ensembles are in strong agreement with a strong ridge developing over the East US and a trough off the West coast in 10 days. With this type of set up it would be hard to pull anything out of the East Pacific. Also, while we may see competing lows merge into one over the Atlantic, I don't think we will see full development from a low in each basin and then merging into one storm as the 18z shows.

12z ECMWF 500mb Ensembles showing the trough in the west coast, and ridge over the East US. Also note the uncertainty over the east pacific as well as the track they take (out to sea, not the Atlantic).

Quoting RitaEvac:
Outflow boundary that was coming south from Houston has fizzled and has stalled on top of me right now in middle Galveston county, two areas of storms moving towards each other and I'm dead center of it


Where do you live? I am in the Friendswood area.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Where do you live? I am in the Friendswood area.


Near NWS, whatever happens, there is a collision zone where the 2 boundaries collide, lightning both sides of me
The likely scenario would be the Atlantic wins out in a competing situation - that is what happened with Arlene and Alex, they where given more time to develop and had more room too actually get going.
New SST Anomaly map came out today. MDR, Caribbean and Central Atlantic have all warmed anomalously, meanwhile the Gulf and the East Atlantic have remained anomalously warm since the last Anomaly chart came out (June 3rd).


SST Anomaly Animation over the last 5 Weeks




SST Anomaly Change in the last 3 Days




SSTs should continue to warm (relative to the anomaly) as the NAO is forecasted to stay negative by the GFS Ensembles and ECMWF deterministic runs until at least mid June.
Quoting wxhatt:
It's typical for the masses to be fixated on a forecast for a below average year (number wise), and then wham, there is that one major hurricane that developes in the gulf of mexico and rides up the east coast...


"Hurricane Donna--Had a very erratic path in the summer of 1960 that started in the Caribbean, then went to the Florida Keys, then into the Gulf of Mexico, where it would make a turn to the north and make a second landfall over Florida at Fort Myers. It continued northeastward across the Florida Peninsula, and moved back out into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach. Not done yet, Donna headed up the East Coast, and made another landfall at Topsail Island, North Carolina. It then finished its trip by heading into New England, and a final landfall across Long Island. At its peak, Donna had wind gusts ranging between 175 and 200 mph, a minimum central pressure of 27.46 inches, and a 13 foot storm surge. Its total damage cost was over one billion 1960 United States dollars while Donna left 50 people dead."



I Am Crazy About OLD ANTIQUE stuff!!


Quoting cyclonekid:
A little off the topic, but not by much.

What if we had a tropical system like this hurricane in 1906? What would happen to the blog? Feud for thought. :)



Immeasurable levels of doom.
Quoting weatherh98:


thats not a good smart choice. nothing is 100%

quantum physics


Rule number 1 of quantum physics: if you understand it, you are doing it wrong!
90W upgraded to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.5N
160.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5N 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION FORMING OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MSI AND A
072235Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DEEP, YET FRAGMENTED, RAINBAND
OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. COMPARISON OF THE BROAD
TURNING NOTICED JUST SIX HOURS AGO TO THE TIGHTER TURNING NOW SEEN
IN THE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE MAY BE
INTENSIFYING FASTER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. A 072234Z ASCAT
BULL'S-EYE PASS SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
LOCATED A FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI SHOW EASTERLY WINDS AT 05-
10 KNOTS WITH A CURRENT SLP OF 1010 MB. THE 071200Z PGTW SURFACE
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS STRADDLING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 160E WHICH MAY BE PROVIDING FOR ENHANCED WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AREA. RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A
POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LLCC DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DIVERGENT SECTOR OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AT 05-10 KNOTS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Anyone else notice the supercell near Fort Collins, Colorado?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The likely scenario would be the Atlantic wins out in a competing situation - that is what happened with Arlene and Alex, they where given more time to develop and had more room too actually get going.

If we do get a competing situation it's really hard to accurately predict what would happen at this point. A lot will depend on the upper level situation and where we see the surface lows set up relative to each other. However, right now I'd have to favor the Atlantic in a competing situation because the GFS Ensembles depiction of a strong upper level anticyclone positioning itself over the Caribbean, which would favor development in the Atlantic over the East Pacific.




Notice the two tornado warned storms ENE of Fort Collins and SE of Colorado Springs...
Sitting outside, lightning every 1-3 seconds, constant flashing, dead calm
Quoting TomTaylor:

If we do get a competing situation it's really hard to accurately predict what would happen at this point. A lot will depend on the upper level situation and where we see the surface lows set up relative to each other. However, right now I'd have to favor the Atlantic in a competing situation because the GFS Ensembles depiction of a strong upper level anticyclone positioning itself over the Caribbean.



That's what I also noticed on the 500mb shear maps as well that leans more to the Atlantic. Alex for example when it developed in the Caribbean had a very strong anti-cyclone over it that helped protect it from the naturally higher shear of June.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Sitting outside, lightning every 1-3 seconds, constant flashing, dead calm


Rain looks like it is going to move NW and miss us both...
Have no fear about how much shear is in the atmosphere at the time the GFS has had the storm in the Gulf...it is probably pretty much nonexistent.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Have no fear about how much shear is in the atmosphere at the time the GFS has had the storm in the Gulf...it is probably pretty much nonexistent.



I don't mean to rain on anyone's parade, but none of the models can be trusted after 7 days.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I don't mean to rain on anyone's parade, but none of the models can be trusted after 7 days.

Yes they can. It may not turn out exactly like predicted, but it gives us a great idea of what will happen. Obviously if the model has been showing a strengthening storm in the Gulf for several runs, the pattern favors development and it will need to be watched.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes they can. It may not turn out exactly like predicted, but it gives us a great idea of what will happen. Obviously if the model has been showing a strengthening storm in the Gulf for several runs, the pattern favors development and it will need to be watched.


I'm no expert, but I disagree. I think the model runs are relatively accurate up to about 7 days, and after that are completely not trustworthy.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I'm no expert, but I disagree. I think the model runs are relatively accurate up to about 7 days, and after that are completely not trustworthy.


Models aren't perfect, but they have a somewhat decent "In The Ballpark" guess on what it'll be like most of the time.
628. wxmod
Quoting KoritheMan:

How can you justify a 99% probability based on a long-range prediction? I'm not berating you, I just want to understand your rationale.


Because I'm watching it building right now.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Looks like a pretty good area of convection in Africa, hopefully it can stay that robust for a while.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Now THAT'S a blob about to move off of Africa!


poss event detected
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Now THAT'S a blob about to move off of Africa!
and its at the perfect height or region for ejection out to the water
its midnight 175 days remain
Outflow boundary collision imminent

Good evening everyone...much better performance from the "Miami Heat" today

Daily SOI: -9.0
30 Day SOI: -2.6
90 Day SOI: -2.3
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

That wave over Africa should aid in the development of a tropical cyclone in the West Caribbean when it reaches that area in about 10 days.
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: There is a 50% chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of 2012.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That wave over Africa should aid in the development of a tropical cyclone in the West Caribbean when it reaches that area in about 10 days.
yeah it will be in the West Caribbean region from the 13th till the 16th
Quoting RitaEvac:
Outflow boundary collision imminent





All of the rain is moving away just to my north... :/
Quoting RitaEvac:
Outflow boundary collision imminent

has the little dove get any rain
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah it will be in the West Caribbean region from the 13th till the 16th

Excited anticipation to see what happens :P
This is the best picture of today's Wyoming tornado I have seen yet.



Sound the tornado sirens...
Outside chance of an invest forming east of FL late Friday or over this weekend.
Quoting Skyepony:
Outside chance of an invest forming east of FL late Friday or over this weekend.

I paid no attention to that area. Looks interesting.

Quoting Skyepony:
Outside chance of an invest forming east of FL late Friday or over this weekend.
its been showing many different senarios but that region seems to be a hotbed for activity so far this pre season maybe we get some seasonal action as well

wait watch see as always
About time I saw some rain! That's more like it!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I paid no attention to that area. Looks interesting.



Yeah~ it has already started. GEOS-5 has hinted at it for 3-4 days now. Real sheared, until today more cold core or subtropical. The 12Z run was tight, tropical, sheared & small. Kinda par for the year so far.


SE of Fort Collins
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I paid no attention to that area. Looks interesting.


Neither did I!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Rapidly moving outflow boundary coming at me from the SW, incoming outflow boundary coming at me from NE, with stalled out washed out boundary directly over me...go ahead there fella... make my day



Looks like another heavy batch headed for the Inner Loop.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I paid no attention to that area. Looks interesting.


The shear over-head is probably helping to cause this burst of convection.

The faster air moves above an area, the lower the pressure underneath.

Fairly fresh ASCAT

with a streak of weak mid level shear overhead
Morning night shift!! Coffee is ready!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
has the little dove get any rain


Is now
i doubt it will be much interesting all the same
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I paid no attention to that area. Looks interesting.



Where is this going?
Quoting RussianWinter:


Where is this going?
looks like east let me get an anim of it
Got garage open watching it from lawn chair, sucking that heat outta the garage, get cool wind and mist blowing in, and then rush of hot air hittin ya as it gets sucked out, locked in now and steady to heavy rains, feels like 70 out there. Urban and small stream flood advisory out now
Quoting RitaEvac:


Is now
thats good it is given everything thats needed
Quoting RussianWinter:


Where is this going?


May go ENE til Monday, stall then wander south a few days.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Got garage open watching it from lawn chair, sucking that heat outta the garage, get cool wind and mist blowing in, and then rush of hot air hittin ya as it gets sucked out, locked in now and steady to heavy rains, feels like 70 out there. Urban and small stream flood advisory out now


Harris Gully FWS gauge at TMC reports 1.56 inches fallen since midnight yesterday. Isolated areas of 0.30 to 1.00 inches as well in the northern half of the loop with values averaging 1.00 inch in the southern half down to the beltway.
Moving up in time.



By HassonGrove





Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Moving up in time.

IMG style="MAX-WIDTH: 501px;


Hey AtHome!! Fantastic....More rain for NW Florida!! Last year, NO rain....this year....got 4 inches yesterday!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


Hey Trauma. Glad y'all are getting your rain. We got a good downpour here today. After a wet and rainy winter and spring we were starting to dry out again. So that was nice. Let's hope they're all beneficial storms this year. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey Trauma. Glad y'all are getting your rain. We got a good downpour here today. After a wet and rainy winter and spring we were starting to dry out again. So that was nice. Let's hope they're all beneficial storms this year. :)


I hope so too!! Glad you guys are getting rain this year!! Seems last year this time was the beginning of a very long dusty summer for you guys in Texas!
Quoting traumaboyy:


I hope so too!! Glad you guys are getting rain this year!! Seems last year this time was the beginning of a very long dusty summer for you guys in Texas!


Yep. Completely different here this year. Even got to go fishing when the lakes filled back up. lol. Although it's getting real close to being too hot to fish. Time for some some night time pier fishing. :)

Florida had highest single day Iodine-131 concentration of any US monitoring station after Fukushima

Follow-up to: Melbourne, Florida had highest iodine-131 reading of any CTBTO monitoring station in the world from March 22-23 (CHART)

US Particulate and Xenon Measurements Made Following the Fukushima Reactor Accident

Link

http://www.batan.go.id/inge2011/file/day1/1650_mc intyre.pdf

Looks to be Carlotta on the 16th going into Mexico per EURO.
Published on Jun 6, 2012
20 years after Chernobyl.
The shocking haunting legacy of a nuclear disaster, the next generation of victims appear.


Published on Jun 6, 2012 by sugminbajstolle 20 years after Chernobyl. The shocking haunting legacy of a nuclear disaster, the next generation of victims appear.


Link
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

Looks to be Carlotta on the 16th going into Mexico per EURO.


She ends up here. But your model is clearer. :)

Very bad lightening and thunder going on in Upper Keys right now, scary
Quoting klew136:
Very bad lightening and thunder going on in Upper Keys right now, scary


Stay safe down there.
Quoting klew136:
Very bad lightening and thunder going on in Upper Keys right now, scary


Was in Islamorada a month ago....Love that place!! Stay safe!!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Stay safe down there.


thanks, haven't had this kind of storm in years. Wicked, just plain wicked.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Was in Islamorada a month ago....Love that place!! Stay safe!!

I love it also, but this storm is relentless. We all were talking how today was more like dog days of August, I think Mother Nature just figured that this June and needed to cool us down. But I wish it was without the lightening and thunder.



Don't look as healthy as earlier to me.
Quoting klew136:


I see you guys are under a flood watch too!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


I see you guys are under a flood watch too!!


yep
Latest run of the GFS shows a system in the development stages on Sun. June 17 right off the coast of Belize and Honduras.

0z GFS... Strikingly similar landfall location to the 18z run but a good deal weaker... A track and intensity like this both seem reasonable to me...

And here's the 6z... Borderline TD/TS with a more southerly track than the previous runs... Out of the last three GFS runs this seems least likely since if anything does form it will probably at least make moderate TS status due to favorable conditions. I think the 0z solution from last night is the most likely to verify

Good Morning...

GFS is starting to gain some support from the ECMWF. If the support continues past the 12Z run and/or GFS continues to move up in time the disturbance development then there could be something to track in a little of over a week.

Of course, since the region of development is within the Monsoonal flow then it could take time for anything to truly evolve (if it ever does).
Good Morning all..woke up with a new version of a childhood song in my head..I'm sure a lot of other mothers singing it too:
"Rain ,rain, go away,
Kids out of school,
need to go OUTSIDE.
and play..lol..
678 sunlinepr: 20 years after Chernobyl...legacy of a nuclear disaster, the next generation of victims...

Good job by CanadianBroadcastingCompany. Skip to 26:20 to pique your interest in viewing the rest
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
And here's the 6z... Borderline TD/TS with a more southerly track than the previous runs... Out of the last three GFS runs this seems least likely since if anything does form it will probably at least make moderate TS status due to favorable conditions. I think the 0z solution from last night is the most likely to verify



Makes it a moderate TS into the East Coast after that though. The GFS the last three runs is being very consistent with track but not so much intensity, going from a Hurricane at landfall to a TS/TD at landfall.
ECMWF wants to send whatever develops in the EPAC into the Gulf similar to Hermine in 2010.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF wants to send whatever develops in the EPAC into the Gulf similar to Hermine in 2010.


DOOM!!!
No rain in South Central Texas for 4 weeks and it is getting very dry, fire season is here. Praying for a weak tropical system to move this way because our next good chance of rain could be September here, we normally get no rain middle of June thru August in my area. Have a great day. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD AS THE
THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA AND CLOUDINESS AND SOIL MOISTURE
DECREASE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MAY WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WEEK. HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE NEAR THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG WITH THE LEAST SOIL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL SOAR INTO THE 103 TO 107 RANGE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES WEST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER..
I'm beginning to buy into development around the 20th. The area is climatologically favored this time of year, and conditions look to be at least somewhat conductive especially water temps. I'm thinking we get a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche that spins up into a moderate strength Chris and tracks ENE towards the northern gulf coast and makes landfall near the Florida panhandle just shy of hurricane strength. Wih the MJO returning stronger than ever and shear dropping this seems like the best solution to me.
694 CybrTeddy: The GFS the last three runs is being very consistent with track but not so much intensity

Given the low accuracy of even short-term intensity predictions, consistency at 11days out would be meaningless.
Quoting ncstorm:


DOOM!!!


DOOMCON: 10/10
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF wants to send whatever develops in the EPAC into the Gulf similar to Hermine in 2010.


A crossover is what the Euro hints there?
...don't blog before coffee.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
0z GFS... Strikingly similar landfall location to the 18z run but a good deal weaker... A track and intensity like this both seem reasonable to me...


It only came back 5 mb. weaker than the 18Z. :P

Good morning all.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


A crossover is what the Euro hints there?
I thought a crossover was a small SUV.
705. etxwx
Good Morning TA13 and everyone. Had a shower here yesterday evening but it was just a trace. *sigh* Our stock ponds are about a foot low now but it's still better than last year when we were about 3 ft down in June. We cut 51 rolls of hay this spring and if it rains we'll get another cutting.
And that's the weather/farm report from East Texas.
Yesterday's Colorado supercell:



What is it with all these beautiful storms with amazing structures in the West/Plains? We just get a bunch of black clouds here in the East...
These models are confusing me...The GFS forecast a storm to form in the caribbean and then brings it up in the gulf.The ECWMF forecast a storm to come from the pacific and form in the gulf.So is this the same storm but it just have different origins on both the models?.
Where are you in East Texas? Our ponds are still low as well. We've already bought hay for winter while we could find it at a reasonable price,(unlike last year!). I do NOT want to go through another summer like that. Hope you get another cut!
Weather Service Furloughs
By Jamie Dupree

After recent revelations of internal budget mismanagement, the National Weather Service is proposing a plan to furlough all of its employees in coming months, in case a deal cannot be reached with Congress to move around money to help make up a $26 million budget shortfall.

"This would require each employee to be furloughed for 13 days, or the equivalent of at least one full pay period," read a fact sheet from the Commerce Department, which oversees the Weather Service.

Even as they notified workers about the possibility, officials acknowledged that such furloughs "would potentially impact critical weather operations including those at the National Hurricane Center and Storm Prediction Center, during the peak of hurricane season."

The hurricane season began June 1; the furloughs would take place between mid-July and the end of September, normally an active time for tropical weather systems.

Certainly one way to grab some attention in the Congress - and the public at large - is to threaten to short staff the Hurricane Center during the summer.

The announcement angered leaders of the union for Weather Service employees, as they argued workers should not be penalized for the mistakes of upper management.

"Their misguided plan to furlough all agency employees is another example of the short-sighted thinking that has put them in such dire straits," said union president Dan Sobien.

"National Weather Service employees are paying for the mistakes of the agency’s leadership," Sobien added.

The move comes less than two weeks after the head of the National Weather Service suddenly retired, as an internal investigation showed that money had been diverted to weather forecasting field offices without the approval of Congress.

There was no evidence that the money had been pocketed for personal gain - instead, it was simply used to fund operations at local National Weather Service offices, by stripping money from other weather facilities.

While that might sound kosher to some outside of government, the cold truth is that no one other than the Congress can "reprogram" budget funds, one reason the Congress is demanding more answers before signing off on any deal.

So far, the Commerce Department has not released details of how it would move around money, but it would have to be done most likely before the end of June.

"It is the Department’s hope to work with the Congress to achieve this outcome," Commerce officials said in a document which was released yesterday by the National Weather Service Employees Organization.

"For years, NWSEO warned Congress that the NWS budget was underfunded," said Sobien, the union president.
Quoting washingtonian115:
These models are confusing me...The GFS forecast a storm to form in the caribbean and then brings it up in the gulf.The ECWMF forecast a storm to come from the pacific and form in the gulf.So is this the same storm but it just have different origins on both the models?.


I believe its depicting a large cluster of convection around Central America that extends from the EPAC and into the western Caribbean due to the monsoonal trough. On the eastern end of the convection a low spins up and become dominant which lead to development in the NW caribbean by the GFS. However the ECWMF shows a dominant low in the EPAC which get shoved ENE towards the Gulf which it spins up. Let see what camp the other models support the GFS or ECWMF.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Concerning the Weather Service Furloughs..

This is something I've experienced with NASA. I would be surprised if they weren't payed at some point after the furlough. Most likely the NWS employees will get a payed vacation out of this...if it happens. Usually the threat alone kicks Congress into doing it's job.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yesterday's Colorado supercell:



What is it with all these beautiful storms with amazing structures in the West/Plains? We just get a bunch of black clouds here in the East...


i know >:|

I think it has to do with the drier air causing LP supercells etc and with the fact that is flatter out there so you can see further.
Here in GA, if that storm was 1 mile from me, it would just look like a mass of gray over the trees.


And the 6z gfs came in 500mb weaker and a lot broader.
It is not as tight and so looks weaker
Quoting Skyepony:
Concerning the Weather Service Furloughs..

This is something I've experienced with NASA. I would be surprised if they weren't payed at some point after the furlough. Most likely the NWS employees will get a payed vacation out of this...if it happens. Usually the threat alone kicks Congress into doing it's job.


hopefully, it would be terrible if they had a furlough on a major hurricane landfall day, or on a major severe weather day.
At least we shouldnt have too many more severe weather events but the Northern tier of the country is still fair game for strong storms.
And if we had a landfalling hurricane, with the NHC, SPC, and local NWS offices out of service, there would be no flood warnings, tornado warnings, and hurricane warnings etc would have to be issued in advance.
I dont see congress letting that happen.
Japanese coast guard rescues solo explorer

CNN says she it a tropical storm.
Maybe that was Sanvu
Hey guys good morning who are you guy

right this is what I think
we will have Chris in the Caribbean. starts off of the Monsoon trough, it breaks off heads N being just NE of Hon/Nic, he will continue off in a NNE-ENE direction Towards Cuba,Florida,Bahamas direction and out. while that happens a peice of monsoon trough in the EPac breakes off, continues on a W-WNW path and forms Carlotta. she then starts to move N, makes landfall, crosses over, and be comes Debby in the GOM and heads ENE-E following Chris. JMO
Quoting Grothar:


They send me something in 36 hrs. I don't know what.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


They send me something in 36 hrs. I don't know what.


right right now that build up of convection over the SW caribbean and Colombia and Venezuela it is part of the monsoon trough that is what will trigger the development
Good Morning. Been real busy at work but driving down to Miami, through some rain I am sure with the Dog, from Tallahassee this afternoon to visit the parents and watch the Heat beat Boston on Sat night................

Nice swath on rain for Florida yesterday with some more to come today which is a good thing.

On the tropics front, really interesting to see the ITCZ finally fire up and start it's slow climb northward towards the Caribbean island chain over the next two months peaking in August and September. Mother Nature is like that every year; it was pretty clear out there for the past several weeks, and now like a switch was thrown, the ITCZ has activated in earnest. Time to start keeping a close eye on the long term models and waves emerging from Africa. But do not get too excited yet; sheer is way too high out in the Central Atlantic and nothing brewing closer to home at the moment.

Link

Have a Great Weekend Folks.........WW.



SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A GOOD BET.
IN THIS TROPICAL LIKE SITUATION...A DOUBLING OF THOSE
AMOUNTS IS VERY POSSIBLE
. DESPITE THE ON-GOING DRY SPELL AND WE ARE
IN THE GROWING SEASON...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
EPISODES OF FLOODING.
On the GFS the system organizes over FL:


and then hits the Carolinas:


and then the NE:


although i am not so sure it is tropical when it hits the NE.
The system is finally moving up in time as it now exits the carribean at 240hrs.


and Carlotta is missing
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i know >:|

I think it has to do with the drier air causing LP supercells etc and with the fact that is flatter out there so you can see further.
Here in GA, if that storm was 1 mile from me, it would just look like a mass of gray over the trees.


And the 6z gfs came in 500mb weaker and a lot broader.
It is not as tight and so looks weaker

True. But still, I want to see a storm like that!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A GOOD BET.
IN THIS TROPICAL LIKE SITUATION...A DOUBLING OF THOSE
AMOUNTS IS VERY POSSIBLE
. DESPITE THE ON-GOING DRY SPELL AND WE ARE
IN THE GROWING SEASON...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
EPISODES OF FLOODING.


It's weird, none of the local forecasters have mentioned that we could receive 2-4 inches of rain. They're just suggesting off and on showers the next few days.
Quoting georgia325:


It's weird, none of the local forecasters have mentioned that we could receive 2-4 inches of rain. They're just suggesting off and on showers the next few days.


the HPC has the 3.8 bullseye over N GA, and the NWS Peachtree City Forecast Discussion talks about the rain.
Maybe the local mets are just not into giving rainfall totals yet on steady rain events.
By tonight i think they will begin to mention rainfall totals given that this is the next system to affect the GA area.
E-PAC:
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE AND EXTENDING FURTHER W TO AROUND 120W-125W OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LONG TERM 5-7 DAY FORECASTS HINTING AT POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS OCCURRING S OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W-105W.
<----- Heading WEST down I-10 to Texas'.
good morning! clear here now with partial clouds,rain is on the way they say, have a great day everyone, oh, local mets have said area's around me have already recieved 5-7 inches of rain and more to come,which is a drought buster i hope.
I gets no love today on the blog.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I'm a bit late to the party, but could we get to a point within some of our lifetimes where people near the equator will have to flee to cover when they see rainclouds for fear of being burned? (And there will still be people who say Global Warming is a myth)