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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting washingtonian115:
Hmmm this wet pattern along Florida and the Golf definitely leads me to believe that they are at a high risk for some tropical troubles this year.As I explained last month D.C had a pretty wet spring and summer last year.And then Irene came running up the coast.Lee's remnants came to bringing even more flooding rain.So watch out :).Be prepared as always.
I think it has to do with persistence of low pressure in a particular area. IOW the constant rain earlier in the season was an indicator of circulation patterns that made it more likely low pressure systems would travel your way, including TCs. It's one of the things that have been making me wary. There's been pretty persistent low pressure in the area from Belize / Honduras up to about 30N 25W for a few weeks now. If this set up persists through the season, this area becomes a pretty obvious area for storms to form, consolidate, even recurve.

Could be interesting.
Quoting spathy:


Hi Washington.
Yes its a wet pattern for Florida, But its not a mean/typical pattern for Florida.
Andrew, the years before and after, were the last years of typical rainyseason for Florida.
Is there any hope for a normal rainy season for SW Florida this year? AB High setup and such?
I wish I could help you on the rainy season pattern for Florida.But i don't know much about it.Sorry.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think it has to do with persistence of low pressure in a particular area. IOW the constant rain earlier in the season was an indicator of circulation patterns that made it more likely low pressure systems would travel your way, including TCs. It's one of the things that have been making me wary. There's been pretty persistent low pressure in the area from Belize / Honduras up to about 30N 25W for a few weeks now. If this set up persists through the season, this area becomes a pretty obvious area for storms to form, consolidate, even recurve.

Could be interesting.
Yes Baha.We did have consistent areas of low pressure coming our way last year.The trofs were very persistent.Pressures are forecast to stay low over the caribbean for the most part of June.We'll see it it stays that way into the heart of the season.
1503. spathy
Oh come on folks.
Is there no interest in weather patterns outside of Naders and Canes?
These outside of Hype parameters have plenty to do with the severe weather that gets the ink.
Expand your box and help out a guy that loves his Summer Thunderstorms.
Quoting spathy:
Oh come on folks.
Is there no interest in weather patterns outside of Naders and Canes?
These outside of Hype parameters have plenty to do with the severe weather that gets the ink.
Expand your box and help out a guy that loves his Summer Thunderstorms.


I do love summer thunderstorms, I mention them quite frequently that they're one of the best parts of summer to me. I really would like Florida's thunderstorm season to kick up.
Quoting spathy:


Hi Washington.
Yes its a wet pattern for Florida, But its not a mean/typical pattern for Florida.
Andrew, the years before and after, were the last years of typical rainy season for Florida.
Is there any hope for a normal rainy season for SW Florida this year? AB High setup and such?
I haven't looked at forecasts for the mean highs / lows yet. However, this is definitely not a "typical" setup for rainy season weather here. We're getting a lot more overnight rain, with muggy, non-rainy afternoons. The AB high that normally hangs around giving us persistent easterlies and p.m. showers doesn't seem so obvious.

Of course it's early days, relatively speaking. Yet in a typical season we would already be into the regular pattern.
Quoting spathy:
Oh come on folks.
Is there no interest in weather patterns outside of Naders and Canes?
These outside of Hype parameters have plenty to do with the severe weather that gets the ink.
Expand your box and help out a guy that loves his Summer Thunderstorms.


I enjoy a few blizzards and Nor'Easters myself.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I do love summer thunderstorms, I mention them quite frequently that they're one of the best parts of summer to me. I really would like Florida's thunderstorm season to kick up.


Me too, in-fact our thunderstorms are really the only thing about Florida summers that I enjoy.

Spathy, in regards to our regular rainy season pattern, which years do you contend were the most recent years we had a "normal" rainy season in Florida? Over the past 10-15 years, we seem to have more ULLs, high pressure and fronts interrupt our rainy season (also nearby tropical cyclones).
This might be one of the coolest GIFs I've ever seen...

Now Spathy,
You've been here long enough to know that no summer weather forecast (in Florida) is good for more than 3 hours!
:o)

We got some good ones this past week. Even a tornado warning Friday.
Well while Floridians are complaining about their sucky not normal rainy season I've been getting some really good rains here in D.C helping out with this drought.If we keep getting rains like this we may go into a surplus while Florida is still dry looking.
Typhoon Mawar's eye is finally clearing out and visible on infrared imagery. The latest JTWC update has Mawar at 95 knots (110 mph), or the equivalent of a high-end Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.





1512. spathy
LOl Rob yes but I am looking for the pattern. Not precise forecast.:O)
Thanks for all the responses.
I used to rely on SW for such. But I guess the pedestrian Carbuncles have shut the door on that trip.
LOL!
Carry on.......
1513. spathy
Thanks 1507. HurrMichaelOrl

Well the late 80s and the early 90s. With breaks in-between,are the regular E/W afternoon storm patterns I was referring to.
I guess it has been so many years without a normal season that Norm is no longer norm?
1514. K8eCane
Quoting WxGeekVA:
This might be one of the coolest GIFs I've ever seen...





I Borrowed That. Hope You Dont Mind
Quoting spathy:
Thanks 1507. HurrMichaelOrl

Well the late 80s and the early 90s. With breaks in-between,are the regular E/W afternoon storm patterns I was referring to.
I guess it has been so many years without a normal season that Norm is no longer norm?


Hey I think we're practically neighbors now.. Waiting on that normal summertime thunderstorm pattern to kick in..
Since it's pretty slow might as well post some video:

FT. MYERS HAIL STORM MAY 2011:



50MPH WIND GUST SUMMER 2011:

1517. spathy

"I enjoy a few blizzards and Nor'Easters myself."
LOL
NOT! ME! :O)
But I get the drift of local norms and preferences.

I did use to enjoy a good N'oreaster while on the eastern shore of Maryland though.
Quoting OrchidGrower:



In that case, Aislinnpaps, I'd like to invite you to take a tour of the west coast of Florida, with a lengthy stop-over in Cape Coral and Fort Myers! ;-P

(Good luck/stay safe...)


Oh, I wish I could! But have to be back before my daughter-in-law has to do her two weeks reserve time. I have a close college friend somewhere on the west coast, she just moved up from down near Miami.
1519. spathy
Quoting charlottefl:


Hey I think we're practically neighbors now.. Waiting on that normal summertime thunderstorm pattern to kick in..


Well of course we are neighbors.
And Like you I will never forget that stony day in May.
I had high hopes for a good rainy season after that storm but it didnt turn out that way. All the storms were isolated and not the lining up along the coast 3 out of 5 days type.
Quoting spathy:


Well of course we are neighbors.
And Like you I will never forget that stony day in May.
I had high hopes for a good rainy season after that storm but it didnt turn out that way. All the storms were isolated and not the lining up along the coast 3 out of 5 days type.


Well I meant move so now recently moved. I'm in Ft. Myers now. Yeah I was kinda hoping things would kick off early this year. We've had a decent amount of rain, just no thunderstorms.
1522. spathy
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Oh, I wish I could! But have to be back before my daughter-in-law has to do her two weeks reserve time. I have a close college friend somewhere on the west coast, she just moved up from down near Miami.


Oh I missed Orchid growers comment and what it was responding to.
What # was that post?
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
826 AM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 PM COASTAL FLOOD SALEM 42.53N 70.87W
06/02/2012 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

COMMERCIAL STREET FLOODED END TO END WITH A DEPTH OF 1
FOOT.

0946 PM COASTAL FLOOD SALEM 42.53N 70.87W
06/02/2012 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

BRIDGE STREET NEAR COMMERCIAL STREET HAS 6 INCHES OF
WATER ALONG THE SIDES WITH 2 INCHES IN THE MIDDLE. ROAD
IS PASSABLE. IN ADDITION ... BOTTOM OF RAMPS OF ROUTE
114 AND 107 IN VICINITY OF BRIDGE STREET ARE FLOODED 3
TO 4 INCHES DEEP

1025 PM COASTAL FLOOD GLOUCESTER 42.62N 70.65W
06/02/2012 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

EASTERN POINT BOULEVARD HAS 4 TO 6 INCHES OF FLOODING


Minor costal flooding last night over the North Shore of Massachusetts, expected to be worse tonight, for the Northshore, and the NH seacoast. the Worst is suppose to be Monday evening at high tide, about a foot higher than last night
1524. 7544
lets see who knows this one they made a movie about hurricane andrew i think it was on abc does anyone here know the title they used i believe byan norcross was in and played himself thanks ffor the info
Quoting spathy:
Thanks 1507. HurrMichaelOrl

Well the late 80s and the early 90s. With breaks in-between,are the regular E/W afternoon storm patterns I was referring to.
I guess it has been so many years without a normal season that Norm is no longer norm?


We've had a general lack of diurnal thunderstorms around here in Houston the past couple of years. From what I collect, I should be getting rained on much more frequently this time of year.



EDIT:

Curiously, it's about normal (temperature-wise) this year. Not bad.
Quoting spathy:


Oh I missed Orchid growers comment and what it was responding to.
What # was that post?


1445. OrchidGrower 11:04 AM CDT on June 03, 2012 +0
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. All quiet here in my neck of Louisiana. Supposed to rain on Wednesday when I head to Florida. Why does it always want to rain when I'm driving somewhere? *S*


In that case, Aislinnpaps, I'd like to invite you to take a tour of the west coast of Florida, with a lengthy stop-over in Cape Coral and Fort Myers! ;-P

(Good luck/stay safe...)
1527. spathy
Quoting charlottefl:


Well I meant move so now recently moved. I'm in Ft. Myers now. Yeah I was kinda hoping things would kick off early this year. We've had a decent amount of rain, just no thunderstorms.


What?
You gave up that great view?
Why?
Email me if needed!
And where are you?
Quoting 7544:
lets see who knows this one they made a movie about hurricane andrew i think it was on abc does anyone here know the title they used i believe byan norcross was in and played himself thanks ffor the info


I think this is it

Triumph Over Disaster: The Hurricane Andrew Story (1993)
1529. Thrawst
It's so sunny today in the Bahamas :')
1530. yqt1001
I present to you, tropical storm Mawar!



That's what ADT returned (3.9).
Quoting spathy:


What?
You gave up that great view?
Why?
Email me if needed!
And where are you?


WU Mail :)
TXPQ27 KNES 031527
TCSWNP

A. 04W (MAWAR)

B. 03/1501Z

C. 20.6N

D. 125.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DG EYE EMBEDDED IN MG AND SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS A DT OF
4.5. MET = 4.0. PT = 4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT
Quoting yqt1001:
I present to you, tropical storm Mawar!



That's what ADT returned (3.9).



its Typhoon Mawar
1540. spathy
Quoting aislinnpaps:


1445. OrchidGrower 11:04 AM CDT on June 03, 2012 +0
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. All quiet here in my neck of Louisiana. Supposed to rain on Wednesday when I head to Florida. Why does it always want to rain when I'm driving somewhere? *S*


In that case, Aislinnpaps, I'd like to invite you to take a tour of the west coast of Florida, with a lengthy stop-over in Cape Coral and Fort Myers! ;-P

(Good luck/stay safe...)


Got it!
YES!!!!
Come to SW Florida !!!!
Visit the Cape and Ft Myers.
Sanibel could use a visit too!


LOL :O)
1541. nigel20
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Sadly Typhoon Mawar has left 2 people, both children, dead in the Philippines with an additional 5 people missing and at least 16 injured


That's very sad...condolences to their family members
Good afternoon everyone!
Quoting spathy:


Got it!
YES!!!!
Come to SW Florida !!!!
Visit the Cape and Ft Myers.
Sanibel could use a visit too!


LOL :O)


As I said, I wish I could!
1543. nigel20
Daily SOI: 16.94
30 Day SOI: -0.10
90 Day SOI: -2.20
The good news about the rain due beginning Wednesday though is it would really help my new garden I just put in out back and the smaller one started in the front. After the house fire last year, I've had to start all over. But I'd be afraid to leave the kids in charge of the dogs for more than a week, rain means it'll be cooler for them as well.
The blob moving NNW over the Yucatan is looking quite good, IMO. You must view it in motion at the maximum loop speed, though.

Visible Loop
1547. nigel20
Quoting WxGeekVA:




Very nice!
How strong do you think it will get?
Quoting nofailsafe:


We've had a general lack of diurnal thunderstorms around here in Houston the past couple of years. From what I collect, I should be getting rained on much more frequently this time of year.



EDIT:

Curiously, it's about normal (temperature-wise) this year. Not bad.

Hobby tends to get seabreeze storms that pop up during the summer. IAH doesn't get those storms, so it tends to be warmer, with slightly less rain. IAH in general is more representative of the city's weather, as Hobby's weather is on the edge of the area that is directly moderated by Galveston Bay, while IAH is not.
Quoting nigel20:

Very nice!
How strong do you think it will get?


I think it will be able to make minimum Cat 3 level, at 105 kts. But it's about to hit a wall of shear....

Hey, Spathy -- good to see you in Wunder(ground) World! Can't blame you for asking about the pattern for this summer's rainy season.

When the Cape's city council gave itself a slate of tighter watering restrictions to impose on us, was the first I heard anyone here mention that the Cape has been in a drought for the last 7 years. Now I see your mention of the annual rainy season being poorer for many years now. I wonder if we'll ever (a) have someone knowledgeable examine the causes of this and "forecast" what SW Florida can reasonably expect in the next decade or two; (b) if our respective cities or region will ever start cloud seeding. (I was recently shocked to hear how extensive Texas's cloud-seeding program has been for at least the last few years.)

1551. nigel20
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I think it will be able to make minimum Cat 3 level, at 105 kts. But it's about to hit a wall of shear....


Thanks much!
1552. K8eCane
Quoting aislinnpaps:
The good news about the rain due beginning Wednesday though is it would really help my new garden I just put in out back and the smaller one started in the front. After the house fire last year, I've had to start all over. But I'd be afraid to leave the kids in charge of the dogs for more than a week, rain means it'll be cooler for them as well.


Good Grief. I had a fire last year too right after Irene. Was out for 4 months because of restoration. Sorry to hear about that
Quoting WxGeekVA:
This might be one of the coolest GIFs I've ever seen...



What are those things flying across the top? planes? seem to move too slowly compared to the clouds
Quoting spathy:
Thanks 1507. HurrMichaelOrl

Well the late 80s and the early 90s. With breaks in-between,are the regular E/W afternoon storm patterns I was referring to.
I guess it has been so many years without a normal season that Norm is no longer norm?
I think we are experiencing a shift in the paradigm...
1555. nigel20
I'm going to have dinner...BBL!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What are those things flying across the top? planes? seem to move too slowly compared to the clouds


I'm pretty sure they're planes. And if they're not planes, they're aliens.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Me too, in-fact our thunderstorms are really the only thing about Florida summers that I enjoy.

Spathy, in regards to our regular rainy season pattern, which years do you contend were the most recent years we had a "normal" rainy season in Florida? Over the past 10-15 years, we seem to have more ULLs, high pressure and fronts interrupt our rainy season (also nearby tropical cyclones).
I'm thinking from 2000-2004 we had some pretty strong afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms. A couple of times I got caught driving in those and had to pull over because I couldn't see the car in front of me. One was in Tarpon Springs and the other one was right over the Howard Frankland bridge actually we made it across the bridge but when we got to the other side that's when we pulled over.
Quoting Thrawst:
It's so sunny today in the Bahamas :')
LOL... even the heat feels different... :o)
Quoting K8eCane:


Good Grief. I had a fire last year too right after Irene. Was out for 4 months because of restoration. Sorry to hear about that


So sorry to hear about your fire. Mine was 100%, so started all over. I am enjoying putting in a new backyard and garden. So far my kids have helped me put in a patio and grill pad off the back deck with a picket fence around it and you go through an arbor to get into main back yard. I have flower beds on either side of the grill pad and patio. They are side by side. I have some great kids.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think we are experiencing a shift in the paradigm...

and getting stronger faster and faster
I really can't wait for December 22nd...
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I really can't wait for December 22nd...
neither can i
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What are those things flying across the top? planes? seem to move too slowly compared to the clouds


Im guessing meteors
I wouldn't want to be anywhere near this right now

Quoting tornadodude:


Im guessing meteors
thats what i figured i call em shooting stars
1566. spathy
Quoting aislinnpaps:


So sorry to hear about your fire. Mine was 100%, so started all over. I am enjoying putting in a new backyard and garden. So far my kids have helped me put in a patio and grill pad off the back deck with a picket fence around it and you go through an arbor to get into main back yard. I have flower beds on either side of the grill pad and patio. They are side by side. I have some great kids.


From the ashes...
Glad to see you are making the best of a new beginning,and nice to see the youngins being a part of the results. That process adds pride in accomplishment and a greater feeling of worth.
Its hopefully something we all learn anew after Ma natures wrath. Yet something none of us wants to see the need for.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Me too, in-fact our thunderstorms are really the only thing about Florida summers that I enjoy.

Spathy, in regards to our regular rainy season pattern, which years do you contend were the most recent years we had a "normal" rainy season in Florida? Over the past 10-15 years, we seem to have more ULLs, high pressure and fronts interrupt our rainy season (also nearby tropical cyclones).



Indeed, the last 2 years rainfall came mainly from fronts that would stall and bring heavy rain for 2 or 3 days followed by drier weather for a few days. Unfortunately as we are heading into June things appear to be following that trend again. I don't see any sign of a sea breeze type situation. When we have gotten a sea breeze type setup typically we end up having a giant upper ridge over head which keeps the thunderstorms tame and isolated. Either way, I am beginning to wonder if the tropical diurnal thunderstorm rain season is becoming a a great Florida past time rather than something that still exists. It's that it has gone away completely over the past several years, but it only occurs it seems for short periods rather than a season. It drives me nuts that we are continuing to hear about "cold fronts" coming down and sweeping across Florida into June. I don't know how things got this but it is weird truly.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats what i figured i call em shooting stars


Yeah, same thing pretty much haha


Severe storms are looking to ramp up before too long
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I wouldn't want to be anywhere near this right now

Unless you're flying with the hurricane hunters, that would be pretty cool :)
1570. spathy
Quoting Jedkins01:



Indeed, the last 2 years rainfall came mainly from fronts that would stall and bring heavy rain for 2 or 3 days followed by drier weather for a few days. Unfortunately as we are heading into June things appear to be following that trend again. I don't see any sign of a sea breeze type situation. When we have gotten a sea breeze type setup typically we end up having a giant upper ridge over head which keeps the thunderstorms tame and isolated. Either way, I am beginning to wonder if the tropical diurnal thunderstorm rain season is becoming a a great Florida past time rather than something that still exists. It's that it has gone away completely over the past several years, but it only occurs it seems for short periods rather than a season. It drives me nuts that we are continuing to hear about "cold fronts" coming down and sweeping across Floria into June. I don't know how things got this but it is weird truly.


I hope its just a cycle.
Afterall most of Floridas nature evolved to endure these type droughts.

Is it possible that a "norm Rainy season" is not the Norm Historically?


Watching this cell in Arkansas. Environment there is pretty primed for large hail and a tornado or two
1572. spathy
1562. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:10 PM GMT on June 03, 2012 Hide this comment.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I really can't wait for December 22nd...

neither can i
------------------------------------

Oh I can wait. But being that I am a little older now,that date will be here as fast as I can sneeze!

My Grandparents warned me about the shift in time speed as I got older,and as it turns out so did the Mayans.
1573. rxse7en
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats what i figured i call em shooting stars
I believe they are jets. You can see vapor trails after they pass.
Quoting spathy:
Thanks 1507. HurrMichaelOrl

Well the late 80s and the early 90s. With breaks in-between,are the regular E/W afternoon storm patterns I was referring to.
I guess it has been so many years without a normal season that Norm is no longer norm?


Spathy, I thought that was the time period you were referring to. True, that if it has been 20+ years since this norm has been consistent, Florida may be facing a new climatic reality. Or, we may be in the midst of the "dry rainy season" portion of some multi-decadal cycle that Florida has been experiencing for hundreds or thousands of years. If the latter is true, I hope we shift back to the wetter pattern soon.
1575. spathy
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm thinking from 2000-2004 we had some pretty strong afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms. A couple of times I got caught driving in those and had to pull over because I couldn't see the car in front of me. One was in Tarpon Springs and the other one was right over the Howard Frankland bridge actually we made it across the bridge but when we got to the other side that's when we pulled over.


Yup!
The time before Andrew!
And just after was perceived as the norm rainy season.
Is that because it was the norm, or because it was the time of greatest Fl influx and thats what most of us first knew upon arrival?

Were cold winters and intermittent seabreeze storms the norm before the influx of Fl population?
Any thoughts?......
1576. spathy
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Spathy, I thought that was the time period you were referring to. True, that if it has been 20+ years since this norm has been consistent, Florida may be facing a new climatic reality. Or, we may be in the midst of the "dry rainy season" portion of some multi-decadal cycle that Florida has been experiencing for hundreds or thousands of years. If the latter is true, I hope we shift back to the wetter pattern soon.


From your keyboard to Ma natures ears :O)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
5:00 AM PhST June 4 2012
=======================================

Typhoon "AMBO" has intensified and no longer poses any threat to the country

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 21.1°N 126.0°E or 380 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gust of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots

Additional Information
=======================

Typhoon "AMBO" " is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas especially the western section which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas due to the combined effects of Typhoon "AMBO" and the southwest monsoon.

Meanwhile, an Active Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 870 km East of southern Mindanao 6.0°N, 134.0°E.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Im hoping for an MCS tomorrow, should track right over my house, maybe we will lose power.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
6:00 AM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 21.3N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 24.9N 128.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South southeast of Naha
45 HRS: 28.3N 133.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Japan
69 HRS: 30.9N 140.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
1580. xcool


12z gfs ensemble
Quoting xcool:


12z gfs ensemble


Looks like a low pressure moving into SE Texas. Just what we need!
Spathy,
I really need to get to the west coast I suppose. Rains every time. The last time I was in Siesta Key it rained for 2 1/2 days. Unfortunately I'm kinda booked up until August. Will see if I can squeeze you in somewhere.
:o)
Quoting spathy:
1562. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:10 PM GMT on June 03, 2012 Hide this comment.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I really can't wait for December 22nd...

neither can i
------------------------------------

Oh I can wait. But being that I am a little older now,that date will be here as fast as I can sneeze!

My Grandparents warned me about the shift in time speed as I got older,and as it turns out so did the Mayans.


Hahaha, every year does seem to get faster doesn't it? Shame really should be the other way around :p
Quoting xcool:


12z gfs ensemble

And so the consistency continues.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Spathy,
I really need to get to the west coast I suppose. Rains every time. The last time I was in Siesta Key it rained for 2 1/2 days. Unfortunately I'm kinda booked up until August. Will see if I can squeeze you in somewhere.
:o)


He'll have his people, call your people.
Decent hail core on a cell in Arkansas

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


He'll have his people, call your people.

LOL
Matter of fact, I've got people in VA Beach.
Catch you guys tomorrow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And so the consistency continues.


that wasn't there on the GFS before, was it?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that wasn't there on the GFS before, was it?

Three days now.
Dinner in about an hour and a half: Roast Pork, Homemade Au Gratin Potatoes, Swiss vegetable cassarole, and homemade frontier apple pie drizzled with caramel sauce and topped with vanilla ice cream and more caramel. Hot weather outside mean cold desert inside.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And so the consistency continues.


We need the Euro.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Three days now.


i dont think so, that was the ECMWF, the GFS showed it once in the E Gulf and then dropped it, but you may be right.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


We need the Euro.

The Euro doesn't extend out that far.
Good morning Mawar!

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Dinner in about an hour and a half: Roast Pork, Homemade Au Gratin Potatoes, Swiss vegetable cassarole, and homemade frontier apple pie drizzled with caramel sauce and topped with vanilla ice cream and more caramel. Hot weather outside mean cold desert inside.

Did you bring enough for everyone on the blog?
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Dinner in about an hour and a half: Roast Pork, Homemade Au Gratin Potatoes, Swiss vegetable cassarole, and homemade frontier apple pie drizzled with caramel sauce and topped with vanilla ice cream and more caramel. Hot weather outside mean cold desert inside.

Can I come?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Euro doesn't extend out that far.

I think that tells us something... Right now I'm treating this as nothing more than a long range GFS fantasy storm... If it continues to move up the time frame and the Euro and others catch on when it gets in their range then it will be something to watch out for.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning Mawar!



is that a pinhole eye or no?
I see a little dark speck at center but havent been keeping up with Mawar the last few days.

It also appears one of the sites i was using for models has lost their domain or something, a real bummer.
It was a good site too.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Euro doesn't extend out that far.


It will be important to see when it reaches the Euro 10 days if GFS continues with it and EC jumps,then we have ballgame.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think that tells us something... Right now I'm treating this as nothing more than a long range GFS fantasy storm... If it continues to move up the time frame and the Euro and others catch on when it gets in their range then it will be something to watch out for.

To be fair I don't think you are giving the GFS enough credit. It is known to have predicted many, many tropical cyclones well in advance. The MJO is expected to return around that time frame anyways, and pressures should be lowering across the West Atlantic.
Where would the doom level go if this was in the Gulf?

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is that a pinhole eye or no?
I see a little dark speck at center but havent been keeping up with Mawar the last few days.

It also appears one of the sites i was using for models has lost their domain or something, a real bummer.
It was a good site too.

Definitely a pinhole.



Lol, no, in reality it is just where the eye hasn't cleared out completely.
severe thunderstorm watch 346 is a very wimpy watch.
i can just imagine the guys at the SPC saying "Do we really need this? Oh what the heck, lets do it just in case."
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Where would the doom level go if this was in the Gulf?



If that was happening in the Gulf, DOOM:CON would be at the highest level.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

To be fair I don't think you are giving the GFS enough credit. It is known to have predicted many, many tropical cyclones well in advance. The MJO is expected to return around that time frame anyways, and pressures should be lowering across the West Atlantic.

That is true... Still too far away to really get interested in though... And while the GFS does predict some storms well in advance, it probably predicts at least 10 that don't materialize for each one that does.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Definitely a pinhole.



Lol, no, in reality it is just where the eye hasn't cleared out completely.


or where it hasnt filled in...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
severe thunderstorm watch 346 is a very wimpy watch.
i can just imagine the guys at the SPC saying "Do we really need this? Oh what the heck, lets do it just in case."

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

WS 0346
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : <05%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : <05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 60%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 29035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU6.

$$
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
severe thunderstorm watch 346 is a very wimpy watch.
i can just imagine the guys at the SPC saying "Do we really need this? Oh what the heck, lets do it just in case."

This is by far the most epic watch ever... PDS tornado watch 235 from the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (>95%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (>95%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (>95%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
Quoting jeffs713:

Did you bring enough for everyone on the blog?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Can I come?



Enough for all! Since I can't contribute to the typhoon info, thought I'd make dinner for those of you who can.
Global warming turns tundra to forest-study

Trust.Org (Reuters)

I don't brake for trolls !
Another Shelf cloud approaching my house....
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

This is by far the most epic watch ever... PDS tornado watch 232 from the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (90%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (90%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (90%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)



Check Tornado Watch #235

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

WT 0235 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

$$
1613. spathy
Quoting RobDaHood:
Spathy,
I really need to get to the west coast I suppose. Rains every time. The last time I was in Siesta Key it rained for 2 1/2 days. Unfortunately I'm kinda booked up until August. Will see if I can squeeze you in somewhere.
:o)



AACCCKKKK!
No Not August.

Ummmmm.... April May is fine.
No need to tempt the fates.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Check Tornado Watch #235

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

WT 0235 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

$$

I did, and then I put it in my comment :)
Storms are beginning to fire on the dry line.

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Check Tornado Watch #235

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

WT 0235 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

$$
man that day was epic very tragic day as well no one will forget april 27th 2011.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
man that day was epic very tragic day as well no one will forget april 27th 2011.


Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Where would the doom level go if this was in the Gulf?



Probably not as high as it was with this girl bearing down on the coast:



Or this one...

hey guys I don't know about GFS and this W Caribbean/GOM storm that it if forecasting cause GFS is up to its old tricks again of pushing to development of this system back in trems of time frame
18z GFS shows Carlotta...



And Chris

Quoting StAugustineFL:
Storms are beginning to fire on the dry line.

Link


I wouldnt expect much out there. Maybe one decent storm. Dryline seems to be retreating.



Also, when tropical forecasting, do people disregard the 06z and 18z runs on the models like we generally do for storm chasing?
Remember when we were wanting 2012 to beat 2004?
It will take a lot of tropical landfalls to catch us up now:


Also Tanner and Harvest AL have a knack for getting slammed by tornadoes.
A history of the major Tanner Tornadoes:

On April 3, 1974, the area was struck by the Super Outbreak; two violent stovepipe tornadoes that were both one-third of a mile in width hit the community within 30 minutes during the early nighttime hours. The two tornadoes were classified as both F5 events in the city itself on the Fujita scale, respectively, although the NWS classified the second tornado as a F4.[2] After the first tornado passed through the area, a second tornado surprised the rescue effort. In total, 50 were killed by those tornadoes.

On April 27, 2011, during what some meteorologists call the "2011 Super Outbreak", Tanner and other surrounding communities were hit by a large violent tornado that was rated an EF5.[3] 11 people perished in the county from the wedge tornado which was over 1 mile wide and killed 72 people overall. The tornado marks the third F5 or EF5 to strike Tanner and the surrounding communities in Limestone County.

On March 2, 2012 around 8:30 AM to 2 PM, five tornadoes struck just outside of town but hit the towns of Meridianville and Harvest. The first tornado was rated EF3, the second tornado struck 30 minutes later and was rated EF2, the third one hit within 20 minutes but was weak and rated EF1. Finally the fourth and fifth tornadoes were weak and both were rated EF0. All 5 were caused by 4 individual supercell thunderstorms.
Found this when looking back at Katrina pics...one of the coolest/most ominous weather pictures I've ever seen...Katrina's stadium effect:

1624. spathy
Quoting RevElvis:
Global warming turns tundra to forest-study

Trust.Org (Reuters)

I don't brake for trolls !


RevElvis
Does this thought process make sense to you?

Warming in the Arctic is happening about twice as fast as in the rest of the world. As reflective snow and ice recede, they expose soil or water which are a darker colour and so soak up more of the sun's heat.

Ok so far so good.
Then this.

The same occurs when trees are tall enough to rise above the snowfall, presenting a dark, light-absorbing surface.



When was the last time you have seen the snow melt in a forest faster than in an open field?

Its warmer,fine.
Tundra on the retreat,fine.
Snow melting faster due to brown branch cover?
Not so fine.
Just sayin.
Carry on.
Global Warming Talk, Mentioning of Katrina, and The April 27th Outbreak?

This is asking for trouble haha
Now someone at the SPC is like "Darn it , I told you not to issue that watch!!!!"

Quoting RevElvis:
Global warming turns tundra to forest-study

Trust.Org (Reuters)

I don't brake for trolls !

Weather or not.
You break for trolls, or simply break them!Is not going to be that important if the tundras are going to become reforested!
I am personally sceptical about reforesting of tundra at this early stage of climatic adjustment to human interference. I much prefer to see what the methane and other nasty frozen compounds are going to get up to, whilst we still have breath to draw!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:



I remember towards the end of the outbreak when it was rolling across Pennsylvania I had to take cover and an EF2 tornado i think touched down very close to where i was.... I was very scared
possible rope tornado on the 1st of June.
this would have been cool to be close to:
1631. Patrap
Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM

Posted June 1, 2012 with 381 reads


Rebecca Leber reports that “the world’s air has reached what scientists call a troubling new milestone for carbon dioxide, the main global warming pollutant.”

Monitoring stations across the Arctic this spring are measuring more than 400 parts per million of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere. The number isn’t quite a surprise, because it’s been rising at an accelerating pace. Years ago, it passed the 350 ppm mark that many scientists say is the highest safe level for carbon dioxide. It now stands globally at 395. [Washington Post]

It’s been at least 800,000 years — probably more — since Earth saw carbon dioxide levels in the 400s….

Readings are coming in at 400 and higher all over the Arctic. They’ve been recorded in Alaska, Greenland, Norway, Iceland and even Mongolia. But levels change with the seasons and will drop a bit in the summer, when plants suck up carbon dioxide, NOAA scientists said.

“It’s an important threshold,” said Carnegie Institution ecologist Chris Field, a scientist who helps lead the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “It is an indication that we’re in a different world."
Quoting spathy:


RevElvis
Does this thought process make sense to you? When was the last time you have seen the snow melt in a forest faster than in an open field?

Its warmer,fine.
Tundra on the retreat,fine.
Snow melting faster due to brown branch cover?
Not so fine.
Just sayin.
Carry on.


Areas under low trees many times is the first to melt after snowfall. The tree canopy blocks outgoing longwave radiation and re-emits it back to the surface, causing faster melting.

Watch a time-lapse camera of snow melt sometime... pay particular attention to areas next to and under shrubs and trees.
The 30 day SOI is rising again after falling to around -3. Keep in mind that the El Nino threshold is -8 and below.

1634. Patrap
..."swoooosh, ahhhhhhh"



Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
possible rope tornado on the 1st of June.
this would have been cool to be close to:


Although hard to say without video or being there in person, it may not be a tornado. Typically they are smooth in appearance on the outside of the rotating. Perhaps this is the very end of the rope stage...
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Areas under low trees many times is the first to melt after snowfall. The tree canopy blocks outgoing longwave radiation and re-emits it back to the surface, causing faster melting.

Watch a time-lapse camera of snow melt sometime... pay particular attention to areas next to and under shrubs and trees.


wait do low trees melt the snow faster and high trees make it melt faster? Here in GA when it snows, the slow melts last under trees and in shade.
But then there is also less snow under the trees so i dont know what the exact relationship is.

1637. spathy
Quoting Patrap:
Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM

Posted June 1, 2012 with 381 reads


Rebecca Leber reports that “the world’s air has reached what scientists call a troubling new milestone for carbon dioxide, the main global warming pollutant.”

Monitoring stations across the Arctic this spring are measuring more than 400 parts per million of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere. The number isn’t quite a surprise, because it’s been rising at an accelerating pace. Years ago, it passed the 350 ppm mark that many scientists say is the highest safe level for carbon dioxide. It now stands globally at 395. [Washington Post]

It’s been at least 800,000 years — probably more — since Earth saw carbon dioxide levels in the 400s….

Readings are coming in at 400 and higher all over the Arctic. They’ve been recorded in Alaska, Greenland, Norway, Iceland and even Mongolia. But levels change with the seasons and will drop a bit in the summer, when plants suck up carbon dioxide, NOAA scientists said.

“It’s an important threshold,” said Carnegie Institution ecologist Chris Field, a scientist who helps lead the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “It is an indication that we’re in a different world."


Ok Pat.
Nice observation.

Any thoughts on this observation.

Link

Warming in the Arctic is happening about twice as fast as in the rest of the world. As reflective snow and ice recede, they expose soil or water which are a darker colour and so soak up more of the sun's heat.

The same occurs when trees are tall enough to rise above the snowfall, presenting a dark, light-absorbing surface.
Quoting tornadodude:


I wouldnt expect much out there. Maybe one decent storm. Dryline seems to be retreating.



Also, when tropical forecasting, do people disregard the 06z and 18z runs on the models like we generally do for storm chasing?


Good evening t-dude. Depends who you ask but from the reliable sources I trust - yes. More confidence is placed in the 0z and 12z runs.
Morning Mawar.
1640. Patrap
But a warming planet is also linked to increases in severe drought and flooding around the world, putting people, crops and livestock at greater risk.


Here's a nice simple way to get into perspective the effects of heat on differently coloured surfaces.
go to a car park/lot as the US lot call it, on a hot sunny day and carefully put a hand on the surface of what you call the hood. (bonnet in English,) or other flat surface that is more or less level.
You will notice that the darker the colour the vehicle the hotter the surface is. in fact any colour darker than yellow or beige is at about mid day too hot to touch and when you get to dark green or brown its unbearable to touch.
Now think about this from the point of view of the surface of the planet. If its white its cool and if its not its uncool!
Simple. Less white more fright and snowball effect turns into domino effect!
Calm seas reflect, turbulent seas absorb.Forests hold heat, deserts loose it.
1642. Patrap
Quoting observing:
If you can't physically help out please make a donation directly to Portlight or if you would like to enjoy the wunderground.com photographers book in support of Portlight.org, please follow this website:

http://dundeebooks.wix.com/lettertomothernature#! Home/mainPage





A Letter to Mother Nature (Volume 1) [Paperback]
Luci A Woodley (Author)
5.0 out of 5 stars

An inspirational and at times humorous expression of gratitude to Mother Nature for her beauty, inspiration and life lessons set to the stunning photographic images from the photo galleries of wunderground.com.
In addition to providing a space for photographers across the world to share their images, wunderground.com (Weather Underground) provides free, real-time online weather information to millions of Web users around the world. Weather Underground was the first weather internet service. They are committed to delivering the most reliable, accurate weather information possible. Their state-of-the-art technology monitors conditions and forecasts for locations across the world.
wunderground.com is a partner of Portlight.org an organization that helps in times of dire need, whether that need be caused by a man-made catastrophe, a natural disaster or simply unbearably hard times.
Charitable proceeds of this book is for the benefit of Portlight.org. Please visit wunderground.com or portlight.org to learn more.
1643. help4u
I thought the AGW services did not start till 9:00 on Sunday night?
Quoting help4u:
I thought the AGW services did not start till 9:00 on Sunday night?

Depends what time zone you are in! Its 1.30 am Monday morning here!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is that a pinhole eye or no?
I see a little dark speck at center but havent been keeping up with Mawar the last few days.

It also appears one of the sites i was using for models has lost their domain or something, a real bummer.
It was a good site too.


Currently it's an embedded center. It's had an eye on & off.

This sudden strengthening wasn't forecast. A few of the CHIPS ensembles saw it coming.

anyone looking at the storms coming into NJ from PA?...any chance they go severe? some had warnings a little while ago
1647. help4u
lol!!!!!!!!!!!
1648. spathy
Scientists from Finland and Oxford University investigated an area of 100,000 square km, roughly the size of Iceland, in the northwestern Eurasian tundra, stretching from western Siberia to Finland.

Link



------------------------------------------------- ---

The Arctic tundra is also a windy place and winds can blow between 30 to 60 miles (48 to 97 kilometers) per hour. Of the North American, Scandinavian and Russian tundras, the Scandinavian tundra is the warmest, with winter temperatures averaging 18F (-8C)


Link


Wow kinda windy there.
How would the wind effect any blocked lognwave radiation? Could it negate any increase in temps and thus negate any melting?

And was this study done in the warmest tundra area known?
According to the models posted, we should start beginning to see some type of development(s) in around two weeks.
1650. beell
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Areas under low trees many times is the first to melt after snowfall. The tree canopy blocks outgoing longwave radiation and re-emits it back to the surface, causing faster melting.

Watch a time-lapse camera of snow melt sometime... pay particular attention to areas next to and under shrubs and trees.


Sometimes it's the drip, drip, drip of meltwater from the upper branches of the vegetation exposed to full sun. Course you have to have a bit more time on your hands than time-lapse provides to observe this.
1651. spathy
Quoting Patrap:
But a warming planet is also linked to increases in severe drought and flooding around the world, putting people, crops and livestock at greater risk.




Ok :O)

But what do you think about the validity of that statement I asked about?

Nevermind.
Its clear that I can question statements that come from a similar mindset as mine.
But far be it for those of a dissimilar mindset to question their own.
1652. Patrap
Quoting spathy:


Ok :O)

But what do you think about the validity of that statement I asked about?

Nevermind.
Its clear that I can question statements that come from a similar mindset as mine.
But far be it for those of a dissimilar mindset to question their own.


You assume a lot, as I was quoting the articles premise.

Fresca?

1653. spathy
Quoting PlazaRed:
Here's a nice simple way to get into perspective the effects of heat on differently coloured surfaces.
go to a car park/lot as the US lot call it, on a hot sunny day and carefully put a hand on the surface of what you call the hood. (bonnet in English,) or other flat surface that is more or less level.
You will notice that the darker the colour the vehicle the hotter the surface is. in fact any colour darker than yellow or beige is at about mid day too hot to touch and when you get to dark green or brown its unbearable to touch.
Now think about this from the point of view of the surface of the planet. If its white its cool and if its not its uncool!
Simple. Less white more fright and snowball effect turns into domino effect!
Calm seas reflect, turbulent seas absorb.Forests hold heat, deserts loose it.


Plaza
That explains the melting on the branches ....
NOT under them. LOL
Quoting tornadodude:


I wouldnt expect much out there. Maybe one decent storm. Dryline seems to be retreating.



Also, when tropical forecasting, do people disregard the 06z and 18z runs on the models like we generally do for storm chasing?
Not so much disregard as use with caution....

1655. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:




A Letter to Mother Nature (Volume 1) [Paperback]
Luci A Woodley (Author)
5.0 out of 5 stars

An inspirational and at times humorous expression of gratitude to Mother Nature for her beauty, inspiration and life lessons set to the stunning photographic images from the photo galleries of wunderground.com.
In addition to providing a space for photographers across the world to share their images, wunderground.com (Weather Underground) provides free, real-time online weather information to millions of Web users around the world. Weather Underground was the first weather internet service. They are committed to delivering the most reliable, accurate weather information possible. Their state-of-the-art technology monitors conditions and forecasts for locations across the world.
wunderground.com is a partner of Portlight.org an organization that helps in times of dire need, whether that need be caused by a man-made catastrophe, a natural disaster or simply unbearably hard times.
Charitable proceeds of this book is for the benefit of Portlight.org. Please visit wunderground.com or portlight.org to learn more.



Like X 100..Great Organization Folks
anyone else got an eye on these T'storms in NJ? one has 61dbz or 65dbz depending what radar you look at
1657. spathy
Quoting Patrap:


You assume a lot, as I was quoting the articles premise.

Fresca?



Sorry if it seemed as though I was assuming something.
I was only asking for a response to that statements logic.
Many had some good ideas.
Beel,Plaza and Georgia had some good input.
Thanks to those that had some thoughtful input.

I was merely asking if you had any relevant input Pat.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL
KANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 344...WW 345...WW 346...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
INVOF WEAK W-E FRONT OVER NRN OK AND PERHAPS FAR SRN KS...AND INVOF
NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE NE TX PANHANDLE.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...AND
POSSIBLY BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE DRIFTING ESE FROM SW
KS. DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST...AROUND 30
KTS...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. COUPLED
QUALITY OF MOISTURE...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS LATER TNGT/EARLY MON...WITH
PREDOMINANT MOTION EXPECTED TO BE SE TO POSSIBLY SSEWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.


...CORFIDI
Quoting spathy:


Plaza
That explains the melting on the branches ....
NOT under them. LOL

Micro climates have a lot to answer for with these kinds of things.
Basically the snow on the branches melts first normally because the branches being darker warm up in the sunlight and hence conduct the heat to the snow on them which then melts rapidly on sunny days.
On cloudy days the snow remains on the branches much longer as there id no conducted heat to it.
The blanket effect of the forest holds the little heat that there is on calm days and hence might contribute to earlier melting on the ground. Added to this there might be an effect where the ground has suffered a snap freeze at the surface, supporting snow at 0/C but in a short period of time the surface rewarms from beneath to melt the new snow. There are always a lot of factors in these things, when you have cover above snow involved but all this is of course governed by the the fact that the temp has to be above 0/C, 32/F to melt anything anyway.
Pat and spathy, u r making me laugh... all the in depth discussion of whether snow melts under trees, and u guys r wrangling over a Fresca....

Quoting xcool:


12z gfs ensemble


This has been suggested by earlier GFS runs last week, perhaps they're starting to coalesce on a solution and perhaps that solution is something more interesting than just more capping.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not so much disregard as use with caution....



Yeah, thats how I should have worded it haha
I hope this thing the models are bringing up won't wait until three weeks from now to show up... I have PLANS for that weekend and would hate to miss the tropical development in the process... frankly, I'd be glad for a quiet June. In July I have more free time to storm-watch since things are relatively slow at work...
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, thats how I should have worded it haha
I guess if a system shows up in 3-4 runs in a row, you feel pretty sure it's going to pan out... but the 6 / 18z runs are usually not as reliable... remember one day last year where the 00z had a storm [forget which one now] recurving up towards Newfoundland; the 06Z had it running along the N coast of South America.... talk about mood swing...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Pat and spathy, u r making me laugh... all the in depth discussion of whether snow melts under trees, and u guys r wrangling over a Fresca....


I supose we will debate anything under the sun,or moon, when there is nothing else much to ponder over.
Its past 2am here and I'm baling out.
Good night All.
1666. spathy
Quoting PlazaRed:

Micro climates have a lot to answer for with these kinds of things.
Basically the snow on the branches melts first normally because the branches being darker warm up in the sunlight and hence conduct the heat to the snow on them which then melts rapidly on sunny days.
On cloudy days the snow remains on the branches much longer as there id no conducted heat to it.
The blanket effect of the forest holds the little heat that there is on calm days and hence might contribute to earlier melting on the ground. Added to this there might be an effect where the ground has suffered a snap freeze at the surface, supporting snow at 0/C but in a short period of time the surface rewarms from beneath to melt the new snow. There are always a lot of factors in these things, when you have cover above snow involved but all this is of course governed by the the fact that the temp has to be above 0/C, 32/F to melt anything anyway.


That sounds good.
Much better than the blanket statement I was questioning.
Odd things happen year over year during some studys I guess.

Baha

Good on ya.
Its a blog,snickering over a discussion is a good thing.
If it makes you think and puts a smile on your face,it must be a good thing.
Well, speaking of work, I gotta go... I'll check in later when / if the night crew gets in...
Quoting PlazaRed:

I supose we will debate anything under the sun,or moon, when there is nothing else much to ponder over.
Its past 2am here and I'm baling out.
Good night All.
Good night... I'm bailing too...
Mawar....Going annular?

Just coming back from a 2nd banning in less than 2 weeks....

first - for posting different free cloud services available

second - for posting the Fukushima contaminated tuna video



"Please save your off-topic imagery and commentary for your private blogs. This blog is intended for serious weather discussions only".

So no Fukushima Updates.... allowed... Even if it blows up and the Jet stream carries no. 4 reactor to Oregon :)

I was not expecting Tennesee tornados or a tornado watch.
guesst things happen.
And watch 346 was a bust
Something he wanted to tell you that he couldn't until he retired from TWC and now heads the NWS in San Angelo TX. His message:

"Trusting in the Saffir-Simpson scale with its 1-5 category rankings....COULD KILL YOU"



Dr. Steve Lyons
Quoting RitaEvac:
Something he wanted to tell you that he couldn't until he retired from TWC and now heads the NWS in San Angelo TX. His message:

"Trusting in the Saffir-Simpson scale with its 1-5 category rankings....COULD KILL YOU"



Dr. Steve Lyons


Well yeah, the scale is based solely on wind speed. Whereas a hurricane obviously has other dangers, like flooding, storm surge, tornadoes.
Good, to see that blocking stream protecting Japan that will take Mawar ENE....

Quoting tornadodude:


Well yeah, the scale is based solely on wind speed. Whereas a hurricane obviously has other dangers, like flooding, storm surge, tornadoes.


The public is clueless and doesn't know that
If anyone is interested 9 tornado's were confirmed in Maryland from Friday...And I have RAIN :) in my forecast .Yes that's right R-A-I-N.Ha ha.
1676. bappit
.
Quoting RitaEvac:


The public is clueless and doesn't know that


Most of the public lacks common sense :p
Quoting tornadodude:


Most of the public lacks common sense :p


It isn't really common sense yet, it's something we've started to learn the hard way within the last decade or so. Not saying it wasn't known before, but it was not widely known, accepted, or communicated.
Ike and Katrina have helped to open up eyes on this matter, unfortunately.
1679. Guysgal
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of

northwest Alabama
northeast Arkansas
the Missouri bootheel
northern Mississippi
western and middle Tennessee

Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 710 PM until
300 am CDT.

Tornadoes... hail to 2.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind
gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 60 statute
miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of
Jonesboro Arkansas to 35 miles north of Huntsville Alabama. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou8).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Other watch information... continue... ww 345... ww 347...

Discussion... sctd tstms have formed over W TN in zone of modest low
lvl waa/moisture transport along weak WNW-ESE front. Sufficient low
to mid lvl speed/directional shear appears present for supercells
with hail... locally dmgg wind... and possibly a couple tornadoes
given that weak convergence may allow for a somewhat extended period
of discrete/semi-discrete storms in a moisture-rich environment.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
550. Mean storm motion vector 28025.
sunlinerpr~ You know it wouldn't just be Oregon. Looks very grim. If that pool in #4 goes officials are saying most of the Northern Hemisphere would be uninhabitable. I'm floored it's been confirmed Fukushima has already killed ten's of thousands of Americans. It's figured atleast 20,000 healthy infants in the United States died from what's on the wind so far. This is a steep price for electricity.
1681. Patrap

Hurricane Watches & Warnings

The National Weather Service issues alerts that relate specifically to tropical storms and hurricanes. It’s important to know what each alert means.

Tropical Storm Watch - Tropical storm conditions with sustained winds from 39 to 73 mph are possible in your area within the next 36 hours (1.5 days).

Inland Tropical Storm Watch - Issued for interior counties when sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph associated with a tropical storm are possible within 36 hours (1.5 days).

Tropical Storm Warning - Tropical storm conditions are expected in your area within the next 24 hours (1 day).

Inland Tropical Storm Warning - Issued for interior counties when sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph associated with a tropical storm are expected within 24 hours (1 day).

Hurricane Watch - Hurricane conditions (sustained winds greater than 73 mph) are possible in your area within 36 hours (1.5 days).

Inland Hurricane Watch - Issued for interior counties when sustained winds of 74 mph or greater associated with a hurricane are possible within 36 hours (1.5 days).
Hurricane Warning - Hurricane conditions are expected in your area in 24 hours or less (less than 1 day).

Inland Hurricane Warning - Issued for interior counties that sustained winds of 74 mph or greater associated with a hurricane are expected within 24 hours (less than 1 day).

If you live near the ocean, you should also be aware of the following alerts:

Coastal Flood Watch - The possibility exists for the flooding of land areas along the coast within the next 12 to 36 hours.

Coastal Flood Warning - Land areas along the coast are expected to become, or have become, flooded by sea water above the typical tide action.
Quoting RitaEvac:


The public is clueless and doesn't know that


Hurricane's most lethal danger: Inland flooding
May 16, 2011|Ken Kaye, Sun Sentinel

The most prolific killer in hurricanes and tropical storms isn’t the strong winds, the battering waves or tornadoes but rather inland flooding, accounting for 59 percent of all tropical-system related deaths.

About a quarter of those deaths are the result of people attempting to drive on water-cover roadways, unexpectedly sinking into holes and drowning, said hurricane specialist John Cangialosi of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County.
1683. Patrap
If they lose the SFP in Bldg. #4

It could take 50 years to contain.

And we all walk south.
1684. bappit
"I'm floored it's been confirmed Fukushima has already killed ten's of thousands of Americans."

Bring out the dead!
The rain will sure be nice hearing it tap on the ground outside :).
1686. gator23
Quoting xcool:


12z gfs ensemble


Hello panhandle?
Quoting washingtonian115:
The rain will sure be nice hearing it tap on the ground outside :).


No more rain... I hate it when it rains in summer because the pool gets cold, and if it thunders with the rain it gets closed. And I like going to the pool in summer!
1688. pottery
Quoting Skyepony:
sunlinerpr~ You know it wouldn't just be Oregon. Looks very grim. If that pool in #4 goes officials are saying most of the Northern Hemisphere would be uninhabitable. I'm floored it's been confirmed Fukushima has already killed ten's of thousands of Americans. It's figured atleast 20,000 healthy infants in the United States died from what's on the wind so far. This is a steep price for electricity.

Those numbers are appalling, Skye.
And if those numbers are "true" and have not been made widely/publicly known/confirmed, then this is doubly appalling.

If we accept those numbers, and the causation, then the lack of confirmation from the US Authorities is tantamount to the withholding of information that we would expect from Communist Russia or China.....

Can the numbers be true ?
Quoting Skyepony:
sunlinerpr~ You know it wouldn't just be Oregon. Looks very grim. If that pool in #4 goes officials are saying most of the Northern Hemisphere would be uninhabitable. I'm floored it's been confirmed Fukushima has already killed ten's of thousands of Americans. It's figured atleast 20,000 healthy infants in the United States died from what's on the wind so far. This is a steep price for electricity.


Agreed, Sky.... That is a study that many interests try to hide... And that figure is in the US... Imagine how catastrophic it is in Japan...

I've been trying to post that reality here using videos and information... Checking the sources first.... But seems like that could bring the blogger into banning for posting non weather related content...
So I'm into weather...
Dont know if this is a debris ball or not, will have to analyze next few radar images.
I dont have any special radars though.
Quoting Skyepony:
sunlinerpr~ You know it wouldn't just be Oregon. Looks very grim. If that pool in #4 goes officials are saying most of the Northern Hemisphere would be uninhabitable. I'm floored it's been confirmed Fukushima has already killed ten's of thousands of Americans. It's figured atleast 20,000 healthy infants in the United States died from what's on the wind so far. This is a steep price for electricity.


Proof of Fukushima fallout killing tens of thousands of Americans please!


Ahhgg!! So good to have Saharan dust in my lungs....



Quoting WxGeekVA:


No more rain... I hate it when it rains in summer because the pool gets cold, and if it thunders with the rain it gets closed. And I like going to the pool in summer!
If you haven't picked up on it yet I'm making fun of those Floridians who can't seem to get rain for some odd reason.Because "something" in the atmosphere is always stopping it.
Quoting sunlinepr:


There are studies that have been published.... from Chernobyl, TMI and now Fukushima...


Can I get the links please? I find this doubtful and probably not true...
1696. K8eCane
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Dont know if this is a debris ball or not, will have to analyze next few radar images.
I dont have any special radars though.



What is a debris ball?
Quoting pottery:
If we accept those numbers, and the causation, then the lack of confirmation from the US Authorities is tantamount to the withholding of information that we would expect from Communist Russia or China.....

Can the numbers be true ?



Check this Russian guy attitude....

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
If you haven't picked up on it yet I'm making fun of those Floridians who can't seem to get rain for some odd reason.Because "something" in the atmosphere is always stopping it.


Oh I get it now.... The Notorious "Tampa Shield"... Yeah, that sucks for them! -___-
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
http://conspiracytheoriesdebunked.com/2012/03/27/ fukushima-nonsense-debunked-14000-u-s-deaths-tied- to-fukushima-reactor-disaster-fallout/


Thank you. This is the debunking that was needed. Now, back to the weather!

I really hope that Mawar misses Japan
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
9:00 AM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 21.6N 126.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 25.3N 129.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East southeast of Naha
48 HRS: 29.2N 135.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
72 HRS: 32.7N 143.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Dont know if this is a debris ball or not, will have to analyze next few radar images.
I dont have any special radars though.


No sir.


Just an appendage and inflow notch.
I'd like some clarification on the issue of Fukishima/Daichi. Seems weather related as the jetstream moves around the planet. My questions would be:
.
1. What are the predicted effects in various areas of the Norther Hemisphere(and I would appreciate some clarification on what's already been posted). Because probability wise...it seems well above 50%, approaching 95%, that #4's gonna' go, and sooner than later.
.
1705. ncstorm
Wow..this blog will believe anything..I will also be posting the winning numbers to the Powerball next saturday..
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'd like some clarification on the issue of Fukishima/Daichi. Seems weather related as the jetstream moves around the planet. My questions would be:
.
1. What are the predicted effects in various areas of the Norther Hemisphere(and I would appreciate some clarification on what's already been posted). Because probability wise...it seems well above 50%, approaching 95%, that #4's gonna' go, and sooner than later.
.


There is a huge probability of another Big quake in the area.

Even now, Mawar is predicted to almost miss Japan.... What is prediction goes wrong?

Anyone knows - What would be the effect of 120mph winds on this building?

Link
1707. yqt1001
Quoting sunlinepr:


There is a huge probability of another Big quake in the area.

Even now, Mawar is predicted to almost miss Japan.... What is prediction goes wrong?

Anyone knows - What would be the effect of 120mph winds on this building?

Link


Roke didn't seem to harm it last year and it pulled an EI over the Ryukyu islands.
1708. beell
Quoting K8eCane:



What is a debris ball?


The study published by the International Journal of Health Services claiming 14,000 US deaths due to radioactive fallout from Fukushima.
Quoting beell:


The study published by the International Journal of Health Services claiming 14,000 US deaths due to radioactive fallout from Fukushima.

Don't listen to him :P It's the signature on radar when a tornado is causing damage and the damage is being picked up in the air.
Quoting sunlinepr:


There is a huge probability of another Big quake in the area.

Even now, Mawar is predicted to almost miss Japan.... What is prediction goes wrong?

Anyone knows - What would be the effect of 120mph winds on this building?

Link
I realize this. That's why I'm not questioning the probabilities or odds of when. I'm looking for some proof of the effects world-wide. Because if we all need to start walking south...our members in the islands need a headstart and I need to go north and west before I go south. Not that I'd make it more than 20 miles in any direction.:)
Quoting help4u:
Millions of children are killed in the name of abortion i never hear anyone on this site complain.This site has some very strange views on life,etc!


Many accidents involving the lives of many americans have been silenced...

Wind weather patterns in the USA move from West to East... Everytime a forest fire or Dust storm goes over any of our nuclear cementeries we living East receive and breathe radioisotopes....



JET STREAM CARRY OUT OF US Nuclear FALLOUT Tests
Check Link

Study Estimating Thyroid Doses of I-131 Received by Americans From Nevada Atmospheric Nuclear Bomb Test, National Cancer Institute (1997) [1]
Author National Cancer Institute
Permission
(Reusing this file)

Created by National Cancer Institute as part of a Congressionally funded study. Acknowledgments do not indicate artwork was created by a contractor or give any reason to think that it is copyrighted. NCI copyright policy[2] says that works created by them are public domain. Artwork is of dubious "creativity" anyway (is a mapping of scientific facts onto US counties).


Link
The radioactive fallout from the test contaminated more US residents than any other nuclear test, and the Sedan Crater is the largest man-made crater in the United States, and is listed on the National Register of Historic Places.
Quoting yqt1001:


Roke didn't seem to harm it last year and it pulled an EI over the Ryukyu islands.


It had tropical storm winds over Fukushima


Magnitude
6.6
Date-Time
Monday, June 04, 2012 at 00:45:15 UTC
Sunday, June 03, 2012 at 06:45:15 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
5.304N, 82.582W
Depth
9.7 km (6.0 miles)
Region
SOUTH OF PANAMA
1714. hydrus
Quoting K8eCane:



What is a debris ball?
When strong tornadoes are detected by radar, sometimes the debris thrown into the air by massive tornadoes can be seen on radar as a ball at the end of the hook echo...
1715. hydrus
Quoting ncstorm:
Wow..this blog will believe anything..I will also be posting the winning numbers to the Powerball next saturday..
Yo dude, it was my turn to do the numbers....Quit bogarting the number thing..:)
1716. K8eCane
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't listen to him :P It's the signature on radar when a tornado is causing damage and the damage is being picked up in the air.



Thanks TA but its amazing that the tornado can chunk debris high enough for that to happen
Quoting K8eCane:



Thanks TA but its amazing that the tornado can chunk debris high enough for that to happen


It's not necessarily how high the debris is lofted, since the radar can scan at 0.5 degrees. It is more the amount of debris being picked up by the tornado.
1718. Patrap
6.6 Quake by USGS South of Panama
SAL all over PR

1720. K8eCane
Quoting tornadodude:


It's not necessarily how high the debris is lofted, since the radar can scan at 0.5 degrees. It is more the amount of debris being picked up by the tornado.


Amazing stuff...but how high can a tornado lift say a 250 lb person?
1721. Patrap
Dallas Tornado RAW video Throwing Semi Trucks April 3rd 2012

1722. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't listen to him :P It's the signature on radar when a tornado is causing damage and the damage is being picked up in the air.


Oh, I was gonna come back around with the correct answer. I had a moment of weakness. Thanks.
:)

Primary characteristic of a debris ball is a tight area of much higher radar reflectivity adjacent to the inflow notch. Due to large airborne objects. Cars, sheet metal, foil coverd cows, etc. Tornadoes in the wide open spaces of Tornado Alley seldom display a true debris ball-nothing out there but dirt.

A debris ball-Vilonia, AR.
Note the higher (magenta) radar reflection.



Not a debris ball-a "hook echo".



Quoting sunlinepr:
SAL all over PR today - Africa quiet... too early for the CV season

All is clear...

1725. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:
Dallas Tornado RAW video Throwing Semi Trucks April 3rd 2012




wow! Well the semi was at least 50 ft in the air sooo....
Quoting K8eCane:


Amazing stuff...but how high can a tornado lift say a 250 lb person?


honestly, Im not really sure, obviously depends on the strength of the tornado, but, Id say easily a thousand feet
1727. Patrap
Panama had a 4.7 fore-shock 13.7 hours before the 6.6 a lil while ago.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
All is clear...


For now...Watch that thing be light up in a couple of weeks.
1729. K8eCane
me thinks me dont want to take a ride on a tornado


Classic photo of a Massive sand storm from The Sahara

Link
Quoting K8eCane:
me thinks me dont want to take a ride on a tornado

Good thought.
1732. K8eCane
Quoting tornadodude:


honestly, Im not really sure, obviously depends on the strength of the tornado, but, Id say easily a thousand feet



I knew a counselor that i worked with said that as a child in Lumberton NC he and his mom were thrown aways by a tornado but he said they both blacked out before it happened due to the pressure? I dont know except thats what he said but obviously as a drug treatment counselor and a very good one, he didnt know much about the weather
1733. Patrap
Semper Fi.

Lieutenant Colonel William Henry Rankin



Lieutenant Colonel William Henry Rankin (October 16, 1920 — July 6, 2009) is the only known person to survive a fall from the top of a cumulonimbus thunderstorm cloud.


He was a USMC pilot, and a World War II and Korean War veteran. He was flying an F-8 jet fighter over a cumulonimbus cloud when the engine stalled, forcing him to eject and parachute into the cloud. Colonel Rankin wrote a book about his experience, "The Man Who Rode the Thunder."
The fall

In the summer of 1959, Rankin was flying from South Weymouth Naval Air Station, Massachusetts to Beaufort, South Carolina. He climbed over a thunderhead that peaked at 45,000 ft (13.7 km), then—at 47,000 ft (14.3 km) & at mach 0.82—he heard a loud bump and rumble from the engine. The engine stopped, and a fire warning light flashed. He pulled the lever to deploy auxiliary power, and it broke off in his hand. Though not wearing a pressure suit, at 6:00 pm he ejected into the −50°C air.

He suffered immediate frostbite, and decompression caused his eyes, ears, nose, and mouth to bleed. His abdomen swelled severely. He managed to utilize his emergency oxygen supply. Five minutes after he abandoned the plane, his parachute hadn't opened. While in the upper regions of the thunderstorm, with near-zero visibility, the parachute opened. After ten minutes, Rankin was still aloft, carried by updrafts and getting hit by hailstones. Violent spinning and pounding caused him to vomit. Lightning appeared, which he described as blue blades several feet thick, and thunder that he could feel. The rain forced him to hold his breath to keep from drowning. One lightning bolt lit up the parachute, making Rankin believe he had died. Conditions calmed, and he descended into a forest. His watch read 6:40 pm. He searched for help and eventually was admitted into a hospital at Ahoskie, North Carolina. He suffered from frostbite, welts, bruises, and severe decompression.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
All is clear...



Sinking air with the sal dominates for now in the Tropical Atlantic.
Quoting tornadodude:


honestly, Im not really sure, obviously depends on the strength of the tornado, but, Id say easily a thousand feet
I love the Tornadodude!!!! Who's with me ???!!!
How is accuweather going to boldly going to come out with a prediction saying three more landfalls?.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Classic photo of a Massive sand storm from The Sahara

Link
Nice image.
Quoting washingtonian115:
How is accuweather going to boldly going to come out with a prediction saying three more landfalls?.

I think we'll see four more landfalls. A Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds just north of Brownsville Texas. A Category 4 hurricane ten miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida. A tropical storm with 50 mph winds 75 miles north of Cape Hatteras, NC, and a Category 3 hurricane 10 miles east of New Orleans, LA.
Quoting K8eCane:



I knew a counselor that i worked with said that as a child in Lumberton NC he and his mom were thrown aways by a tornado but he said they both blacked out before it happened due to the pressure? I dont know except thats what he said but obviously as a drug treatment counselor and a very good one, he didnt know much about the weather



hmm bizarre!

Tornado Watches out tonight, but I honestly dont expect much out of them
1741. K8eCane
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think we'll see four more landfalls. A Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds just north of Brownsville Texas. A Category 4 hurricane ten miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida. A tropical storm with 50 mph winds 75 miles north of Cape Hatteras, NC, and a Category 3 hurricane 10 miles east of New Orleans, LA.


If that happens, i want you to read my palm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think we'll see four more landfalls. A Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds just north of Brownsville Texas. A Category 4 hurricane ten miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida. A tropical storm with 50 mph winds 75 miles north of Cape Hatteras, NC, and a Category 3 hurricane 10 miles east of New Orleans, LA.
That's a pretty bold prediction..we'll see if it will come to pass.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think we'll see four more landfalls. A Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds just north of Brownsville Texas. A Category 4 hurricane ten miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida. A tropical storm with 50 mph winds 75 miles north of Cape Hatteras, NC, and a Category 3 hurricane 10 miles east of New Orleans, LA.


This has been screen-capped for future reference
Quoting kipperedherring:
I love the Tornadodude!!!! Who's with me ???!!!
One more time people! Who's with me?! Let's hear it for Tornadodude!!!!!!
1745. pottery
Quoting sunlinepr:



Check this Russian guy attitude....

Link

Yep, I just watched that. An excellent video.Thanks.
I'm not disputing the possibility that there are several agendas in place.
I'm not doubting the dread effects of Nuclear situations.
I'm not doubting the possibility of fallout affecting millions.

And I am all for discussing this here on this blog, because it is WEATHER that moves these things from place to place, i.e. ocean currents, airflows, weather systems.
Quoting kipperedherring:
One more time people! Who's with me?! Let's hear it for Tornadodude!!!!!!


lol chill out
1748. Patrap
Partial lunar eclipse sets the stage for Venus transit
Earth's shadow covers up part of moon early Monday, then Venus has its day in the sun


By Mike Wall

updated 6/3/2012 6:45:59 PM ET
Print Font:

The historic transit of Venus across the sun Tuesday is a must-see for skywatchers, but observers shouldn't overlook another celestial event that comes just one day earlier — a partial lunar eclipse of the June full moon.

On Tuesday, Venus will trek across the sun's face from Earth's perspective, marking the last such transit of Venus until 2117. In a sort of celestial warmup, the full moon will dive through Earth's shadow on Monday morning to produce a partial lunar eclipse that will be visible to observers throughout parts of North America, Asia and the Pacific region, weather permitting.

Quoting kipperedherring:
One more time people! Who's with me?! Let's hear it for Tornadodude!!!!!!

Yay...

Whoo...

Yippee...
i like how all the analog years have at least a tropical storm making landfall in Nova Scotia... I guess ill just have to wait and see...
Quoting tornadodude:


lol chill out
Sorry if I got carried away, I'm a huge fan.
Quoting pottery:

Yep, I just watched that. An excellent video.Thanks.
I'm not disputing the possibility that there are several agendas in place.
I'm not doubting the dread effects of Nuclear situations.
I'm not doubting the possibility of fallout affecting millions.

And I am all for discussing this here on this blog, because it is WEATHER that moves these things from place to place, i.e. ocean currents, airflows, weather systems.


Yeap, its weather... Down here what we get is Saharan Dust.... Even if Chavez Nuclear goes off, you are free of Fallout :)

Did you knew about the Sedan Test and how weather affected it?

Link

Link
Quoting kipperedherring:
Sorry if I got carried away, I'm a huge fan.


lol how?
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's a pretty bold prediction..we'll see if it will come to pass.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


This has been screen-capped for future reference

What do you mean "if" it comes to pass? Don't you remember? I predicted [in my head] that the USA would go six years without a major hurricane landfall, the longest streak on record. I also predicted a hurricane of epic proportions would devastate the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline in August 2005, the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record would occur in October 2005, and the NHC would be monitoring a tropical cyclone on New Year's Eve 2005.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What do you mean "if" it comes to pass? Don't you remember? I predicted [in my head] that the USA would go six years without a major hurricane landfall, the longest streak on record. I also predicted a hurricane of epic proportions would devastate the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline in August 2005, the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record would occur in October 2005, and the NHC would be monitoring a tropical cyclone on New Year's Eve 2005.
It says you joined July 6 2010.Not 05 :).
1757. pottery
Quoting sunlinepr:


Yeap, its weather... Down here what we get is Saharan Dust.... Even if Chavez Nuclear goes off, you are free of Fallout :)

Did you knew about the Sedan Test and how weather affected it?

Link

Link

Depends on the time of year, and how high the radioactivity goes over Venezuela.
If it had happened last month I would be feeling a little unwell right now....
Quoting washingtonian115:
It says you joined July 6 2010.Not 05 :).

I predicted it in my head. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What do you mean "if" it comes to pass? Don't you remember? I predicted [in my head] that the USA would go six years without a major hurricane landfall, the longest streak on record. I also predicted a hurricane of epic proportions would devastate the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline in August 2005, the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record would occur in October 2005, and the NHC would be monitoring a tropical cyclone on New Year's Eve 2005.


Predict when the next season like 2005 will happen. :-)

I'm pretty sure none of us will ever see it...what a year that was.
1760. gator23
Quoting washingtonian115:
How is accuweather going to boldly going to come out with a prediction saying three more landfalls?.


I miss Bastardi.....nope
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I predicted it in my head. :P


Yeah me too. Weird. I also predicted the storms for last year, correctly, in my head. Awesome!
Well one storm I did predict right was Igor...But that was a wild guess.
1763. gator23
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah me too. Weird. I also predicted the storms for last year, correctly, in my head. Awesome!


In private all of my gambling choices have netted me 1 million
I bet that I would never comment on my betting habits.


darn...
Quoting gator23:


In private all of my gambling choices have netted me 1 million


I won 126 bucks playing poker, does that count? lol
Mawar needs just a little more before the eye totally closes off:

Been a great start to the year. Lots of good info to comb through. Was quite often off topic in off season, now here only to contribute weather wise. Here in Wisconsin we have been under a moderate warning for severe weather by the SPC three times this year. This is unusual in itself. What's concerning is all three have been complete busts. Too much shear ruined the first called for outbreak, not completely sure what happened with the other two. SPC usually do a great job, the fact they are zero for three here in Wisconsin is concerning because we have a very tuned out public here. I love the weather, and I come here for the info from those in the know. Thanks all, I would chime in more........but often, less is more.
1768. wxmod
If you throw a rock in a pond, what do you get?

MODIS satellite photo today, Pacific near Baja.

http://www.thefargos.com/weather/hurricane/2012_atl antic_hurricanes.jpg
Western Gulf looks to be in for it this year...However I say anywhere from Corpus Christi TX to Port Sulphur LA.
Found this video of the tornado in Bel Air on the 1st, was rated an EF-1 by the NWS.



Warning: strong language during beginning of the tornado.
Quoting Skyepony:
Mawar on MIMIC..

Weird storm.
The Republican convention will go off without a hitch, because global warming is not occurring. Global cooling is actually what is happening. Heartland is clear on this scientific fact. Sure they don't have scientists working for them, but should that really matter? But in all seriousness this will be an above average year with Haiti and Florida or Georgia or the Carolina's taking direct hits if steering patterns don't change. Rick Knabb will be fine, hard to screw up with all the data available now. A good pick to be sure, Rick will validate his selection. Will be an action packed year I think, can't wait for the exciting season to come. Just hope the fatalities stay at zero. Inevitably there's always someone wind-surfing in a TS. Cool videos to watch.............until they come down. Stay safe all.
Quoting Skyepony:
Mawar on MIMIC..


Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
11:00 AM PhST June 4 2012
=======================================

Typhoon "AMBO" has maintained its strength and continues to move away from the country

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 21.7°N 126.4°E or 400 km east northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gust of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots

Additional Information
=======================

Typhoon "AMBO" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas especially the western section which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas due to the combined effects of Typhoon "AMBO" and the southwest monsoon.

Meanwhile, an Active Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 810 km east of southern Mindanao 6.5°N, 133.5°E.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
wxmod...................preaching to the choir brother.
1631 Patrap: Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM

I find myself wondering if that extra plus3.54PPM above MaunaLoa's most recent weekly average is due to decomposition of organic material that until recently was trapped in the now-unfrozen "perma"frost.
1779. wxmod
Quoting sunlinepr:


Ahhgg!! So good to have Saharan dust in my lungs....





At least you know what it is. Cough.
1780. nigel20
Quoting MississippiWx:


Probably not as high as it was with this girl bearing down on the coast:



Or this one...


Two of the most powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic...good evening everyone!
Quoting wxmod:


At least you know what it is. Cough.


It could be Aspergillus, camel hair, scorpion or snake skin from the Sahara.....


No joke, last week all cars had a thin film of Monserrat volcanic ash...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Weird storm.


Indeed.


Quoting aspectre:
1631 Patrap: Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM

I find myself wondering if that extra plus3.54PPM above MaunaLoa's most recent weekly average is due to decomposition of organic material that until recently was trapped in the now-unfrozen "perma"frost.


Methane hasn't followed that trend so far this spring..
1783. wxmod
Quoting sunlinepr:


It could be Aspergillus, camel hair, scorpion or snake skin from the Sahara.....


No joke, last week all cars had a thin film of Monserrat volcanic ash...


:)
Quoting Skyepony:
Mawar on MIMIC..


Use the following list of folders

Link

Look in the webManager or WebManagerIR Folders and post the latest gif....

One folder has the IR animation the other is the WV
1785. angiest
For my fellow Houstonians, channel 13 is doing their beginning of hurricane season special now.
Quoting angiest:
For my fellow Houstonians, channel 13 is doing their beginning of hurricane season special now.


Tim Heller will just give his usual baloney.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Use the following list of folders

Use webManager or WebManagerIR and post the latest gif....

One folder has the IR animation the other is the WV


Just right click the image, copy image location, and paste it on the Image on Wunderground. No 3rd party required!
1788. angiest
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Tim Heller will just give his usual baloney.


Hah. :)

I never watch channel 13 news. It just happened to be what we had on.

Quoting Tribucanes:
Too much shear ruined the first called for outbreak
Huh?
Quoting angiest:


Hah. :)

I never watch channel 13 news. It just happened to be what we had on.


"Tropical Storm Edouard is going to cause severe damage in the Houston area."
-"Dr." Tim Heller
1791. angiest
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


"Tropical Storm Edouard is going to cause severe damage in the Houston area."
-"Dr." Tim Heller


Hey, Edouard was good for a day off work.

I think we actually had some heavier rains during the drought last year than Edouard gave us.


Quiet... But for how long?
1794. nigel20
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Quiet... But for how long?

Hey galveston...what's up?
1795. K8eCane
https://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/550886_10 151787194830710_221657940709_24665943_1589283578_n .jpgLink

The State Port Pilot
THIS IS SALT WATER. You would be unwise to drive through it. Tonight's is among the highest tides we've ever witnessed here absent stormlike conditions.
L
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


"Tropical Storm Edouard is going to cause severe damage in the Houston area."
-"Dr." Tim Heller
Quoting angiest:


Hey, Edouard was good for a day off work.

I think we actually had some heavier rains during the drought last year than Edouard gave us.


The problem is that people are not going to take stronger storms seriously because Heller cranked up the hype machine just to have a good bit of news for that day.
1797. K8eCane
still trying to learn how to post links...highest tide ever in southport nc without a storm
Quoting sunlinepr:


Use the following list of folders

Link

Look in the webManager or WebManagerIR Folders and post the latest gif....

One folder has the IR animation the other is the WV


There's the WV..Didn't know how to find that one. Thanks.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Just right click the image, copy image location, and paste it on the Image on Wunderground. No 3rd party required!


I just link the MIMIC gifs since they are so huge...
another strong quake south of Panama... 6.6
I have a bad feeling about this
Quoting nigel20:

Hey galveston...what's up?


Not much, what about you? I'm concerned that an el nio pattern is not going to develop - these forecasts are still a little shaky even with today's modern technology. Plus, high pressure continues to set up a more westward steering current towards the US.

Quoting galvestonhurricane:


"Tropical Storm Edouard is going to cause severe damage in the Houston area."
-"Dr." Tim Heller
Wasn't Edouard the one that gave me sporadic rain showers all the way near Baton Rouge? Oh wait, I think the winds were gusty too...
Koritheman, we had three moderate warnings for Wisconsin this year from the SPC. The first was the day after the large outbreak of around 100 twisters in Tornado alley. We were expecting an outbreak in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Shear was the factor that was too high. Super-cells were torn apart by said shear as storms moved from Minnesota to Wisconsin. We have been under a moderate warning three times here in Wisconsin. All have been complete busts. That's my only point. We're very unprepared here and having three busts on moderate warnings doesn't help.
Last month's solar flare created a mysterious pulse on Earth that seemed to 'answer' sun's blast

Neutron monitors around world 'lit up' despite relatively small size of flare
First time in six years flare affected Earth like this
Data being analysed by satellite which scans particles invisible to others

By Rob Waugh

PUBLISHED: 11:36 GMT, 1 June 2012 | UPDATED: 11:38 GMT, 1 June 2012

After an unusually long quiet period, the sun unleashed a solar flare on May 17 this year - but scientists are now puzzling over what happened on Earth.

Neutron monitors all round the world lit up in response to the blast for the first time in six years, despite the fact it was an M-Class, or moderate, flare.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-215 3200/Last-months-solar-flare-created-mysterious-pu lse-Earth-answer-suns-blast.html#ixzz1wnERzyZ7
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
another strong quake south of Panama... 6.6
I have a bad feeling about this


One positive note:

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0315Z 04 JUN 2012
COORDINATES - 5.4 NORTH 82.7 WEST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - SOUTH OF PANAMA
MAGNITUDE - 6.6

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
1805. angiest
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


The problem is that people are not going to take stronger storms seriously because Heller cranked up the hype machine just to have a good bit of news for that day.


How many locals now remember Edouard, and how many remember Ike, just weeks later?

I understand what you are saying, but the "damage" Heller might have done was likely undone that same year. Now, if you can show me he said the same things about Don last year then I might say something different.
SPC seemed to do a pretty lousy job today. This isn't me bashing them, because they do a great job overall, but sometimes they have some odd days.

3 unnecessary tornado watches and an unnecessary thunderstorm watch in Georgia earlier. Along with the 5% tornado threat (slightly higher probs). oh, and they shifted the entire slight risk area 3 hours south from the 7am update to the 11am update haha oh well, live by the SPC, die by the SPC
1807. wxmod
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
another strong quake south of Panama... 6.6
I have a bad feeling about this


Bigger quakes seem to be moving north on this side of the Pacific.
1808. nigel20
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Not much, what about you? I'm concerned that an el ni�o pattern is not going to develop - these forecasts are still a little shaky even with today's modern technology. Plus, high pressure continues to set up a more westward steering current towards the US.

I'm good...the SOI is now trending upwards...this will only further delay or inhibit the formation of an el nino
Quoting KoritheMan:

Huh?

?
Quoting angiest:


How many locals now remember Edouard, and how many remember Ike, just weeks later?

I understand what you are saying, but the "damage" Heller might have done was likely undone that same year. Now, if you can show me he said the same things about Don last year then I might say something different.


Yes, I understand your point. I am just concerned that overhyping by the media in general is desensitizing people by making them reconsider evacuating during a larger storm because they think it is going to be another bust.
1811. angiest
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


One positive note:

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0315Z 04 JUN 2012
COORDINATES - 5.4 NORTH 82.7 WEST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - SOUTH OF PANAMA
MAGNITUDE - 6.6

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.


*Most* of the south coast of Panama has a transform fault, which normally do not cause tsunami (barring a major underwater landslide). That magnitude is also fairly low to cause a tsunami.

Quoting Tribucanes:
Koritheman, we had three moderate warnings for Wisconsin this year from the SPC. The first was the day after the large outbreak of around 100 twisters in Tornado alley. We were expecting an outbreak in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Shear was the factor that was too high. Super-cells were torn apart by said shear as storms moved from Minnesota to Wisconsin. We have been under a moderate warning three times here in Wisconsin. All have been complete busts. That's my only point. We're very unprepared here and having three busts on moderate warnings doesn't help.
I don't think there's ever such a thing as "too much shear", much in the same way there is no such thing as "too less shear" when it comes to hurricanes. Was this an official statement by the NWS? Now I'm curious about the source.
Quoting tornadodude:
SPC seemed to do a pretty lousy job today. This isn't me bashing them, because they do a great job overall, but sometimes they have some odd days.

3 unnecessary tornado watches and an unnecessary thunderstorm watch in Georgia earlier. Along with the 5% tornado threat (slightly higher probs). oh, and they shifted the entire slight risk area 3 hours south from the 7am update to the 11am update haha oh well, live by the SPC, die by the SPC


I agree, however; I would rather them err on the side of caution rather than leave people out to dry.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I agree, however; I would rather them err on the side of caution rather than leave people out to dry.


Oh no doubt. But, given the conditions today, I'm not entirely sure why a couple of the tornado watches were even issued.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

?


Severe thunderstorms are powered by vertical shear, not weakened. It is the opposite of tropical convection, which we want to be aligned in the vertical if we wish to see tropical cyclone formation. Land-based convection is different, because they are almost always tilted with height. In fact, the updraft would actually choke with a severe thunderstorm that is vertically stacked.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
12:00 PM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 22.1N 126.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 25.9N 130.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East southeast of Naha
45 HRS: 29.2N 135.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
69 HRS: 32.7N 143.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan
Quoting nigel20:

I'm good...the SOI is now trending upwards...this will only further delay or inhibit the formation of an el nino


ESPI is -1.69. It should be neutral or positive if we were about to experience a moderate or stronger El Niño in the next few months..
Quoting tornadodude:


Oh no doubt. But, given the conditions today, I'm not entirely sure why a couple of the tornado watches were even issued.


Yeah, questionable to say the least. I guess they thought the dangerous pattern that was supposed to develop still had a chance of doing so. Or they did not want to admit that their earlier forecasts were a mistake. But anyway, good call not chasing today.
Quoting Skyepony:


ESPI is -1.69. It should be neutral or positive if we were about to experience a moderate or stronger El Niño in the next few months..


Do you think a weak el niño can still develop, or is it becoming less likely?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Severe thunderstorms are powered by vertical shear, not weakened. It is the opposite of tropical convection, which we want to be aligned in the vertical if we wish to see tropical cyclone formation. Land-based convection is different, because they are almost always tilted with height. In fact, the updraft would actually choke with a severe thunderstorm that is vertically stacked.

That's correct. There is such a thing as too much wind shear though. It can act to completely shear the thunderstorm all together.

Tornadodude is a storm chaser, he should be able to explain it to you better if you still don't understand (which you probably don't ;)).

Good night everybody.
I'm no expert, but that's what our local weathermen/women used as the reason for the moderate risk not coming to fruition. Just the right amount of shear is conductive for tornadoes, too much and super-cells get ripped apart. This was their reasoning for the first moderate issued. The other two I'm not sure what happened, but the weather predicted did not come. I only bring it up because I've never seen the SPC be wrong three times in a row for the same area. Hope all is well with you Koritheman :)
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Yeah, questionable to say the least. I guess they thought the dangerous pattern that was supposed to develop still had a chance of doing so. Or they did not want to admit that their earlier forecasts were a mistake. But anyway, good call not chasing today.


Yeah, sometimes I fear the latter is more often the case. Oh well, Im not the one getting paid the big bucks ;)

I probably would have given today a chance if I lived closer to my target for the day. But I do not enjoy 7 hour drives home after a busted chase day haha
Check the trailer for the movie Last call at the Oasis.... Save your drinking water

Link

1824. nigel20
Quoting Skyepony:


ESPI is -1.69. It should be neutral or positive if we were about to experience a moderate or stronger El Niño in the next few months..

So, do you think we'll have ENSO neutral conditions through out the hurricane season?
TA 13 thanks
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's correct. There is such a thing as too much wind shear though. It can act to completely shear the thunderstorm all together.

Tornadodude is a storm chaser, he should be able to explain it to you better if you still don't understand (which you probably don't).


Theoretically it might be possible. But sure, corroboration from the man himself will suffice.

Matt, you have the floor.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Severe thunderstorms are powered by vertical shear, not weakened. It is the opposite of tropical convection, which we want to be aligned in the vertical if we wish to see tropical cyclone formation. Land-based convection is different, because they are almost always tilted with height. In fact, the updraft would actually choke with a severe thunderstorm that is vertically stacked.


Though generally true, almost too simple.. sometimes we see landcanes & like Alberto sometimes we have shallow storms surviving under higher shear...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's correct. There is such a thing as too much wind shear though. It can act to completely shear the thunderstorm all together.

Tornadodude is a storm chaser, he should be able to explain it to you better if you still don't understand (which you probably don't).



You want the updraft of a thunderstorm to be tilted so that when the precipitation forms, and falls back to the ground, it doesnt fall through the updraft, causing the storm to collapse. You want a well defined rain free base.


OH. to clarify, you can have too much shear for a severe thunderstorm. You dont want the updraft to be sheared off the base of the storm. Tilted updrafts are great, but you tilt it too far, and the whole storm is sheared away.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's correct. There is such a thing as too much wind shear though. It can act to completely shear the thunderstorm all together.

Tornadodude is a storm chaser, he should be able to explain it to you better if you still don't understand (which you probably don't).


How old are you, that you can act like you know everything? Btw so this comment is weather related, I agree with Kori about the effect of wind shear on land-based storms.
1830. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's correct. There is such a thing as too much wind shear though. It can act to completely shear the thunderstorm all together.

Tornadodude is a storm chaser, he should be able to explain it to you better if you still don't understand (which you probably don't ;)).

Good night everybody.

Same to you TA!
Somewhere in this slide there is an explanation

Iowa State Met
Quoting tornadodude:


I dont mean to come off as knowing everything. ://

I'm 21 btw
.

No, I'm not referring to you at all! I'm talking about tropicalanalystwx13. He seems to think that he runs the show now.
I'm still leaning neutral to weak El Nino through August.

Quoting Skyepony:


That's almost too simple though.. sometimes we see landcanes & like Alberto sometimes we have shallow storms surviving under higher shear...


The same general rules still hold true, though. Yes, we can see tropical depressions or storms form overland given certain parameters. But am I going to forecast that? Not a chance.
Good night everyone!
//

Quoting galvestonhurricane:
.

No, I'm not referring to you at all! I'm talking about tropicalanalystwx13. He seems to think that he runs the show now.


Cody's a good kid. But like me, he comes off as unintentionally abrasive at times. Even before he put that wink there though, I knew he was joking. That's our delicate way of displaying friendship.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
.

No, I'm not referring to you at all! I'm talking about tropicalanalystwx13. He seems to think that he runs the show now.


haha yeah, I caught that, oh well
115mph

Quoting sunlinepr:
115mph



looks a little lopsided ;)
1637 spathy: Any thoughts on this observation. Link
Warming in the Arctic is happening about twice as fast as in the rest of the world. As reflective snow and ice recede, they expose soil or water which are a darker colour and so soak up more of the sun's heat.
The same occurs when trees are tall enough to rise above the snowfall, presenting a dark, light-absorbing surface.


(Page35) Essentials of Meteorology: An Invitation to the Atmosphere -- C. Donald Ahrens
Selective Absorbers and the Greenhouse Effect
"...Snow, for example, is a good absorber of infrared radiation but a poor absorber of sunlight..."

Trees are good absorbers of sunlight that re-emit heat produced by sunlight striking them as infrared.
Between SpringEquinox and FallEquinox, daytime length exceeds night-time length. The closer to the pole and to the SummerSolstice, the longer the day-length as compared to the night-length.
So the balance is that the infrared emitted by trees and absorbed by snow is greater than what is being re-emitted by snow. That excess infrared absorbed by snow eventualy creates enough heat to melt it.
There is also convective tranfer of heat from the sunlight-warmed trees to the air to the snow.
As long as my house is empty and the intelligent cat is asleep, I'm the weather guru in my house. :) And all this time I thought I was running the show here............, ah geeeze..........another dream crushed.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
.

No, I'm not referring to you at all! I'm talking about tropicalanalystwx13. He seems to think that he runs the show now.
I think it's because he's 14 now... :o)

Mind u, the kid does know a fair amount... to give him his due...
Here is a great place to go to learn some different facets of meteorology.

Covers severe thunderstorms and even some tropical weather.

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_detail.php?or derBy=publishDateDesc&topic=4

Quoting BahaHurican:
I think it's because he's 14 now... :o)
You forgot to tell him it's past his bedtime. ;)
Quoting Tribucanes:
Koritheman, we had three moderate warnings for Wisconsin this year from the SPC. The first was the day after the large outbreak of around 100 twisters in Tornado alley. We were expecting an outbreak in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Shear was the factor that was too high. Super-cells were torn apart by said shear as storms moved from Minnesota to Wisconsin. We have been under a moderate warning three times here in Wisconsin. All have been complete busts. That's my only point. We're very unprepared here and having three busts on moderate warnings doesn't help.



They are technically called Moderate Risks. Meaning there is a moderate risk of severe weather within that area.

I have chased several moderate risk setups this year to no avail.

The tricky part about those type of scenarios, is that there is usually one key component that can make or break the system.

For general warning, I would stick to watch and warning products. The SPC outlooks are more tailored to EMA, event planners, etc.

Peace and goodnight all.
thanks Tornadodude
Quoting Tribucanes:
thanks Tornadodude


anytime, if you have any more questions, feel free to shoot me a message, Im more than happy to help
Quoting tornadodude:


It's not necessarily how high the debris is lofted, since the radar can scan at 0.5 degrees. It is more the amount of debris being picked up by the tornado.


0.5 degrees means entirely different things at different ranges from the radar, so yes it does have to do with how high the debris is lofted. At further ranges, it's quantity, height, and coverage (as the beam spreads in addition to elevation gain).
1851. nigel20
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm still leaning neutral to weak El Nino through August.


Thanks Skye...good night everyone!
Quoting ScottLincoln:


0.5 degrees means entirely different things at different ranges from the radar, so yes it does have to do with how high the debris is lofted. At further ranges, it's quantity, height, and coverage (as the beam spreads in addition to elevation gain).



Yeah, I thought about that after I posted that. Great point.

I wonder if anyone has archived images of debris balls from different radar tilts
Quoting KoritheMan:

I don't think there's ever such a thing as "too much shear", much in the same way there is no such thing as "too less shear" when it comes to hurricanes. Was this an official statement by the NWS? Now I'm curious about the source.


Thunderstorms can be sheared apart, just like hurricanes can...
SPC caught it, but this little gem slipped through tonight



Same place as last nights run in the same time frame. This doesn't come out of the Pacific though. Still looks like something will try to develop in the Caribbean or EPAC in a couple weeks. As usual stay tuned.

1631 Patrap: Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM
1778 aspectre: I find myself wondering if that extra plus3.54PPM above MaunaLoa's most recent weekly average is due to decomposition of organic material that until recently was trapped in the now-unfrozen "perma"frost.
1782 Skyepony: Methane hasn't followed that trend so far this spring..

THANKS! I hadn't thought to look for methane as the companion decomposition product.
So I guess the excess is CO2 from the industrialized NorthernHemisphere, with a greater portion heading toward the Arctic than toward the Tropics.
Quoting tornadodude:
SPC caught it, but this little gem slipped through tonight





Looks like they ended up correcting it shortly after. Seems like someone had a morbid test message in mind tonight...
Quoting aspectre:
1631 Patrap: Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM
1778 aspectre: I find myself wondering if that extra plus3.54PPM above MaunaLoa's most recent weekly average is due to decomposition of organic material that until recently was trapped in the now-unfrozen "perma"frost.
1782 Skyepony: Methane hasn't followed that trend so far this spring..

THANKS! I hadn't thought to look for methane as the companion decomposition product.
So I guess the excess is CO2 from the industrialized NorthernHemisphere, with a greater portion heading toward the Arctic than toward the Tropics.


It's not necessarily "heading" toward the Arctic, it is probably more closely related to the fact that the Arctic has fewer plants to use up the CO2 and thus concentrations are higher.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Looks like they ended up correcting it shortly after. Seems like someone had a morbid test message in mind tonight...


from College of Dupage site
the pacific is warming rapidly im expecting elnino conditions by late july early august
Quoting windshear1993:
the pacific is warming rapidly im expecting elnino conditions by late july early august

Even if the Pacific warms up, it will take at least 3 months for the atmosphere to catch up. Which would make El nino appear atmospherically in October.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 22.6N 126.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
325 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 26.5N 130.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Northwest of Minami Daito
45 HRS: 30.1N 137.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
69 HRS: 34.3N 146.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan
Hello Winter.
our 1st complex low pressure system is developing off the east coast of Australia. it is already effecting Victoria and is due to move up the coast and effect NSW/Sydney tomorrow/Tuesday then will move away towards New Zealand on Wednesday/Thursday. We are expecting the worst on Tuesday night with heavy rain and gale force winds of 70km/h+.

Current.

Tuesday

Wednesday


As you can also see we have another Low moving in from the west which will bring much needed rain to SW Western Australia.
I just finished compiling my TCR on Tropical Storm Beryl. Since we'll likely have a new blog when I wake up, I'll post it again tomorrow:


Tropical Storm Beryl [AL02]

AL0212

26 May - 30 May

Beryl was the second out of season tropical storm to form in the Atlantic during 2012. Its formation marked the first time since 1887 that two tropical storms formed during the month of May. In addition, Beryl's landfall near Jacksonville as a 60 kt tropical storm makes it the strongest pre-June tropical cyclone landfall on record for the United States. The previous record was held by Subtropical Storm Alpha, which struck the Georgia coast with 50 kt winds in May of 1972.

a. Storm history

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on 12 May, and is believed to have been the precursor to Beryl. The wave was accompanied by some deep convection as it emerged from the coast. Thereafter, the wave become largely indistinct as it marched across the Atlantic, and its entrance into the western Caribbean on 21 May is based largely on extrapolation and continuity. Subsequently, the wave began to interact with a preexisting area of anomalous southwesterly flow encompassing a distance from the far eastern Pacific to Bermuda. This large-scale flow pattern, which has shown to be quite favorable for the initiation of thunderstorm development, could have been triggered by the upward phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which was making its way across the far eastern Pacific and adjacent Caribbean Sea at that time. Strong westerly shear prevented significant development while the system was in the Caribbean.

In the wake of Alberto, a small trough became established over the eastern seaboard, which forced the disorganized disturbance toward the east-northeast. The system crossed eastern Cuba early on 24 May, and entered the western Atlantic in the vicinity of the Bahamas later that day. Surface observations from Grand Bahama indicated westerly winds as early as 1200 UTC 25 May as the disturbance passed to the east, providing evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. The low moved northeastward at about 15 mph during this time, embedded in broad southwesterly flow associated with the trough. Under the influence of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, the system began to acquire organized deep convection near the center. While such an evolution would typically presage tropical cyclone formation, analysis of satellite and water vapor imagery indicates that the surface low was collocated with an upper low that had apparently been spawned from the same trough that recurved Alberto. This prevented the convection from forming directly over the center. In addition, the system initially lacked upper-level outflow, another distinct characteristic of a tropical cyclone.

Late on 25 May, the trough weakened, leaving the system in a region of weak steering. Owing to the influence of the upper low, the designation of the system as a cyclone at 0000 UTC 26 May is considered to be subtropical. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given. Beryl was initially trapped in a region of weak steering, and moved only slowly southwest. A large blocking pattern began to amplify over the eastern United States at this time, which caused the cyclone to gradually accelerate. Based on microwave data and satellite imagery, Beryl is estimated to have transformed into a tropical cyclone near 1800 UTC 27 May while centered about 110 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. The cyclone's winds are estimated to have been around 55 kt at this time.

As it rounded the southern periphery of the ridge, Beryl turned westward throughout much of the 27th. Under light shear and warm waters, the cyclone strengthened, reaching a peak of 60 kt shortly before landfall along the northeastern Florida coast near Jacksonville Beach just after 0400 UTC 28 May. The cyclone appeared to be on the verge of becoming a hurricane, as doppler visuals indicated a developing eyewall. Following the typical progression, Beryl began to weaken as it moved inland. Concurrently, the cyclone slowed significantly, which was followed by a gradual turn to the north and northeast around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Indeed, the forward speed had decreased so much that the cyclone became essentially stationary near the Georgia/Florida border for about twelve hours beginning around 0000 UTC 29 May. Beryl weakened to a tropical depression near 1200 UTC 29 May while still over northern Florida about 15 miles south of the Georgia border. It should be noted that it took Beryl roughly 38 hours to weaken to a tropical depression after landfall -- a rather anomalous inland decay rate, especially for a system of Beryl's strength.

The slow weakening of the tropical cyclone while moving overland is likely attributable to Beryl's close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Its slow movement enabled it to develop a well-defined and persistent inflow band to the east, which helped to continue mixing the strong winds aloft to the surface. Interestingly, water vapor imagery shortly after landfall indicated dry air and some westerly shear impinging on the cyclone's western periphery, which kept much of the associated precipitation in well-defined bands to the east of the center. By around 1200 UTC 29 May, Beryl began to accelerate. As Beryl neared the South Carolina near 0600 UTC, the cloud pattern began to become more suggestive of an extratropical cyclone as the storm began to interact with a cold front moving across the northeastern United States. Synoptic data suggest that this process was complete six hours later, when the system was very near the North Carolina coast.
Statement as of 3:27 AM CDT on June 04, 2012

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Sequoyah County in east central Oklahoma
Crawford County in northwest Arkansas northeastern Le Flore County in southeast Oklahoma northern Sebastian County in west central Arkansas

* until 430 am CDT

* at 322 am CDT... severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Lee Creek to 9 miles west of Natural Dam to 12 miles northwest of Muldrow... moving southeast at 35 mph.

Storm hazards include... wind gusts to 60 mph...

* some locations in or near the path of these storms include... Natural Dam... Lee Creek... Cedarville... Muldrow... Figure Five... Roland... Chester... Lake Fort Smith... Rudy... Van Buren... Mountainburg... Moffett... Fort Smith... Arkoma... Alma... Dyer...Pocola... Barling... Bonanza... Lavaca... Mulberry... Hackett... Jenny Lind... Bloomer... Excelsior and Greenwood.

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 314 and 328.

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 23.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

People outside should move to a safe shelter... preferably inside a strong building. Stay away from windows until the storm has passed.


Lat... Lon 3566 9398 3566 9407 3558 9407 3557 9403
3553 9404 3551 9403 3547 9405 3546 9403
3544 9408 3526 9409 3511 9444 3541 9470
3558 9446 3576 9438 3576 9395
time... Mot... loc 0827z 312deg 31kt 3574 9440 3558 9451
3550 9472

Ground Clutter always fascinates me :~P

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 328 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... NORTH CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... UNTIL 415 AM CDT
* AT 328 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HICKORY RIDGE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...PARKIN...WYNNE AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS....STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LinkCollege of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH NCNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 040839Z - 041015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NWRN AND EVENTUALLY NCNTRL AR EARLY THIS MORNING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EAST OF WW 350 TO INCLUDE NCNTRL AR.

DISCUSSION...A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO-VORTEX OVER NERN OK. STRONGEST STORMS EXIST ALONG SERN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF MESO-VORTEX.

THIS LINE SEGMENT MAY CONTINUE TO BOW AND ACCELERATE EWD INTO NWRN AR WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN FARTHER WEST...AND WHERE A RESERVOIR OF 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS.

LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS AND A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO DURATION OF THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

..DIAL/HART.. 06/04/2012


ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 35349524 35979417 35819190 34809169 34959360 35349524
Link Storm Prediction Center Current Mesoscale Discussions
1870. RTLSNK
1871. RTLSNK
Good morning.

1873. LargoFl
1874. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:

Even if the Pacific warms up, it will take at least 3 months for the atmosphere to catch up. Which would make El nino appear atmospherically in October.
you mean september?
1876. ncstorm
the 00Z Euro..watch for the east coast first and then the GOM



1877. ncstorm
CMC..same timeline as the Euro



also in the GOM
low pressure.
Sad news everybody. Eduard Khil, the man who sang the Trollolol song died last night. May he continue to troll in heaven forever.

Trollol

Eduard Khil Dies
It is going to be a wet week across C & N FL. Some areas could see several inches of rain according to the HPC.



This is the reason why here as this deep tropical mopisture over the Yucatan merges with a stalled front over N FL to provide a wet Thursday and Friday across the state. I also wouldn't rule out that some totals near the west coast of FL could approach 10" in a set up like this.

Is the Whitewater-Baldy fire not blog-worthy? It is the largest fire in NM state history, replacing the former largest fire, last year's Los Conchas fire, by about 80 thousand acres.

It has to be the most notable event from North America in recent weeks.
Looks like the weather for tomorrow will be really gusty with heaps of rain.


Predicting up to 100km/hr wind with this developing low south of Sydney. There is a strong front behind this complex area of low pressure. I included the first weather map to show the frontal nature of this system (fronts often get missed by the Aussie Bureau of Meteorology). Wednesday looks like rubbish for viewing the transit of Venus here in Sydney. Also not looking foreword to the 4 to 5 months of winter ): We didn't even have summer this year in Sydney which was pretty rubbish. I miss the Florida warmth!

Quoting AussieStorm:
Hello Winter.
our 1st complex low pressure system is developing off the east coast of Australia. it is already effecting Victoria and is due to move up the coast and effect NSW/Sydney tomorrow/Tuesday then will move away towards New Zealand on Wednesday/Thursday. We are expecting the worst on Tuesday night with heavy rain and gale force winds of 70km/h+.

Current.

Tuesday

Wednesday


As you can also see we have another Low moving in from the west which will bring much needed rain to SW Western Australia.
You folks Tampa north might be in awe in the amount of rain that maybe rung out later this week as this is a lot of high octane tropical air moving NE. The PWAT's in the southern Gulf are in excess of 2.5".

1883. K8eCane
anyone here from indonesia?
Here is a satellite image of the storm system that will be bringing windy, rainy, and cold conditions to the southeastern half of Australia over the next couple of days.
So we could get both Chris and Debby eh?.
1886. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
So we could get both Chris and Debby eh?.

Eventually.....
1887. pottery
The Atlantic is dry......
Quoting pottery:

Eventually.....
According to the models looks like we could get them back to back.
Quoting pottery:
The Atlantic is dry......
Just like this blog.
1889. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
According to the models looks like we could get them back to back. Just like this blog.

LOL !
Hot and bright here this morning.
A shower or 2 last night.
Going to be Humid......
Quoting pottery:

LOL !
Hot and bright here this morning.
A shower or 2 last night.
Going to be Humid......
It's going to be in it's mid 70's with low humidity. :).
1891. ncstorm
00z Euro Ensembles


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The situation that will unfold over TX is looking similar to the warm core lows of the summer of 2007 which produced devastating flooding rainfall across portions of of NC TX
Good morning all.

Mawar is not looking too good right now. It's beginning to battle with a wall of wind shear, and it looks like a little bit of dry air may be giving it trouble. The typhoon probably peaked with 100 kt (115 mph) winds last night.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 965.0mb/ 74.6kt

04/0832 UTC 23.1N 127.1E T4.5/5.5 MAWAR -- West Pacific



Looks like there were some pretty tall clouds this morning:
1896. MTWX
Quoting tornadodude:



Yeah, I thought about that after I posted that. Great point.

I wonder if anyone has archived images of debris balls from different radar tilts


Would be extremely difficult to find, if at all. The radar changes it's elevation (tilt) after every cut, for the most part, depending on its scan mode (we have 4 modes here). A cut only takes about 10-40 seconds to completed before it changes elevation. A full scan can take as long as 15 minutes, once again depending on the mode. Most tornadoes are not even on the ground that long. Best chance is to find you a strong long tracker, and hope they archived the cuts individually!

Happy hunting!
1897. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm still leaning neutral to weak El Nino through August.

Me too..If we can sqeak by one more season without a strike, by next season there may be a strong El-Nino to put a serious dent in the number of storms. I know it only takes one.