WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Beryl headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012

The center of Tropical Depression Beryl is close to the ocean again, and the storm has strengthened slightly in response. Beryl's heavy rain show will be focused on Eastern North Carolina today, where widespread rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches can be expected. Beryl's heaviest rains fell over Lafayette County, Florida, on Monday and Tuesday, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned a single tornado on both Monday and Tuesday; these twisters did only minor damage. There is a slight chance the storm could produce another weak tornado today over North Carolina. The storm is being blamed for one death--a swimmer that drowned in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Another swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina. All things considered, Beryl was just the sort of tropical storm the Southeast U.S. needed--strong enough to bring the heavy rains needed to alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region, but not so strong as to cause major damage and loss of life. The main bummer was that Beryl hit during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, costing the tourism industry tens of millions of dollars in lost business. With Beryl caught in a trough of low pressure and accelerating to the northeast, the storm should transition to an extratropical storm later today.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:25 pm EDT May 29, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl over the past seven days from NOAA/AHPS.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Beryl dropped 3.79 inches of rain from 0630 to 1600 hours today here in eastern NC. Some areas recieved more, some less, but it was needed much like the areas in GA and FL. Not quite as bad, but still needed.
New Mexico fire sets largest record
A massive wildfire that has burned more than 265 square miles in the Gila National Forest has become the largest fire in New Mexico history, fire officials confirmed May 30.



This image provided by NASA shows smoke from New Mexico wildfires drifting across the southcentral United States. The image was acquired Thursday May 24, 2012 by NASA's MODIS satellite Aqua. Firefighters are battling a massive wildfire in southwestern New Mexico that has destroyed a dozen cabins and spread smoke across the state, prompting holiday weekend air-quality warnings. The fire burned early Saturday through remote and rugged terrain around the Gila Wilderness and has grown to 85,000 acres or more than 130 square miles. Fire officials say nearly all of the growth has come in recent days due to relentless winds. (AP Photo/NASA)

Southernmost cell just keeps chugging along.

Quoting 1900hurricane:
Looks like some intense straight line winds are setting up:

I see Roger Edwards used the "D" word in the 8 p.m. outlook. Second time today I've seen it used as a potential outcome of these complicated atmospheric interactions.

The wrong-way gust fronts in the TX panhandle might be something to reckon with. A couple of years ago a similar wrong-way storm caused havoc in St. Louis with a lot of tree destruction--the trees' root systems had not grown to withstand a wind load from the east.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this time tomorrow night we will be 4 and a half hours away from the first TWO at 2 am jun 1 to init the 2012 Hurricane Season


Keeper....yer killing me with the countdown! *lol*

Lindy

Quoting 1900hurricane:
Southernmost cell just keeps chugging along.

According to local weather dropping very large hail also.
Wow! Look at this outflow boundary.

Quoting belizeit:

Good evening all..what's up Belize?
513. Tygor
Going to be really interesting to see the drought map when it comes out. Lots of mid-90s days in Texas with no rain is going to mean lots more orange and red.
Hailstorm so bad in France it damaged wine crops in 9 villages, some won't be back in production til 2015.
Half a dozen homes hit by meteorites in India.
Texas looks a lot different on the radars and satellites this year. Hope everyone makes it through the severe and comes out with some rain for their troubles. There may be hope yet.

High pressure aloft will continue to break down. This will allow a cold front to push through Southeast Texas Early Friday Morning. The front will likely generate scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday Evening and Early Friday Morning. Little in the way off cooling is expected with it's passage but 1/2 to 3/4 inches of rainfall are possible.

High pressure is then expected to rebuild over the area during the course of the weekend. This will mean the return of hot, dry days to the area.

By Tuesday of next week, indications are that the sea breeze will become active...something that we haven't seen the past couple of years. Expected a 20% coverage of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Quoting Skyepony:
Half a dozen homes hit by meteorites in India.


Intense, and a bit unusual.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Intense, and a bit unusual.


Looked like they were coming down on the mets for not seeing it on radar & such & putting out a warning..
Good night all!
SPACE – A NASA Sun-watching spacecraft will have an unbeatable view of June’s historic Venus transit, but some of the probe’s scientists are taking measures to get a great look for themselves here on Earth, too. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite will watch from space as Venus crosses the sun’s face on June 5 (June 6 in the Eastern Hemisphere) — the last such Venus transit until December 2117. Not content to live vicariously through their spacecraft, some SDO scientists are headed to Alaska to watch the seven-hour event in its entirety. “For the United States, only Hawaii and Alaska will see the entire transit,” said SDO project scientist Dean Pesnell, of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “There’s a solar physics meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, the week after the transit. So we said, ‘Well, let’s go to Alaska and see the transit.’” Venus transits occur in pairs that are eight years apart, but these dual events take place less than once per century. The last transit happened in 2004, and the next won’t come until 2117. So next month’s transit is the last chance for skywatchers to see Earth’s so-called sister planet trek across the solar disk. –Mother Nature Network
Quoting KoritheMan:


Intense, and a bit unusual.

Hey Kori, how are you?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Tuna does not glow in the dark.... Just like tabacco, causes no cancer....


Incredibly, it takes this long for the truth to come out about radiation in California bluefin So people who have been eating tuna for the last half a year have been eating cesium? (VIDEO)


The story in the San Francisco Chronicle is not as alarmist as your post is.

Interesting that the story mentions only in passing the problem of mercury accumulating in tuna. You shouldn't be eating much tuna anyway. Here's a Consumer Reports article.

The Huffington Post had some commentary on the Bluefin tuna story, ("Radioactive Tuna Won’t Kill You—but Should We Be Concerned About Mercury?").

"It's harder to identify the source, but burning coal, which produces organic methyl mercury, is the major global factor that has increased over the past century. “That’s what we should be focused on,” he says. “We need to change our own habits if we're concerned about our health and the health of the oceans.”"
Quoting lobdelse81:

Hey Kori, how are you?


I'm fine, thanks. Off the next two days. How are you?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm fine, thanks. Off the next two days. How are you?

Doing fine, counting down to hurricane season, lol.
Quoting lobdelse81:

Doing fine, counting down to hurricane season, lol.


Nature's ahead of the game. No need.
Quoting bappit:

The story in the San Francisco Chronicle is not as alarmist as your post is.

"


Well, it's a fact that we have the Fukushima Cesium fingerprint in Tuna being fished in the Conus W coast.... The news has been published by credible sources.... We are even seeing studies published....
Link

And that is just the beginning...

My reaction to that is:

I don't smoke. But I respect those who want to get that poison into their lungs. They can smoke the whole cigarrete industry, no problem with me.

But I don't want a Single molecule of smoke from their cigarette inside my lungs. They have the freedom and the right to smoke and to believe it is harmless.
I have the freedom and the right to breathe clean air...

The same way, I respect those who think that food contaminated with small amounts Cesium won't do any harm...

But I have the freedom and the right to be informed if what I'm going to eat and feed my family is contaminated with man made radioactive isotopes or not....

If what is inside there, has a natural ocurrence, no problem, natural radiation has been with mankind since the beginning....

But, after analyzing Chernobyl, TMI and Fukushima and the way governments handled and keep lying about those accidents, I really do not believe the "everything is OK or it wont hurt you" agenda of the Nuclear industry....

Also, I believe Yes, we should be Alarmed.... Specially those living in Conus... Not the same situation here in PR, we are receiving the Saharan Dust....

Up in the mainland, weather patterns are feeding not only the Fukushima poison to the W coast states, But also contamination from China and India.... that news (study) was posted here recently...


-------------------------------------
Chinese Air Pollution Reaches the United States

Increasing amounts of pollution are being blown across the Pacific Ocean to North America. Pollutants carried by the jet stream can reach the United States in days. Pollutants from Asia reaching the United States are rising at a rate of 5 percent to 10 percent a year. By some estimates 25 percent of the air pollution in Los Angeles comes from China.

American heath officials find this figure alarming when is tacked onto pollution that already exist in the United States.


Pollution from China Alarming?

Then, what about Japan??.....
Japan is closer and it's radioactive pollution....
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
15:00 PM JST May 31 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11.8N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 14.1N 126.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Now that's what I call a wreath laying ceremony ...









Hi Guys, Been a while. As my name says, a layman here, no expert.

Looks like a very active season, I am reticent to accept the 'normal' prediction.

One thing I noticed, and I am not being funny, but this year, the millipedes here in Barbados are all up the wall, for the last few weeks its been that way. Have not seen that since I have been where we live.

Seems like they have been trying to get away from something, probably lots of water.

We'll see, so far they have been right because the last week has been ample rain.

Good morning... End of the 0z GFS run has a Gulf system



Obviously that's highly unlikely to verify but it does show that the Gulf may become a more favorable environment over the coming weeks.
6z GFS run has that Gulf system also but a little sooner and a little stronger



It kind of pulls a Lee in this run and just sits in the Gulf at the same strength from 324 hours or so through the end of the run.
Good Morning
Friday...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
6z GFS run has that Gulf system also but a little sooner and a little stronger



It kind of pulls a Lee in this run and just sits in the Gulf at the same strength from 324 hours or so through the end of the run.



NOLA!!!!
CAT5!!!!!

SARCASM FLAG__ON

But the GFS has been more consistent lately, the severe weather today was depicted at 264+hours out more than a week ago.

There could be a moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow across the mid atlantic:

D OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE A LINEAR MODE SHOULD BE MORE DOMINANT. SOMEWHAT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES/PERHAPS EVEN A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.

How many inches of rain are predicted for SoFla?
Quoting RussianWinter:
How many inches of rain are predicted for SoFla?
Everyone, please keep the families of those folks who lost their life in Beryl (as few as it may be) in your prayers. As for them, Beryl was presumably the most tragic storm they have ever encountered.
Morning All, Looks like some good rains are coming to the Tampa bay area on friday.
What is this?
Rain for S FL today

799
acus01 kwns 310553
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 310551


Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 am CDT Thursday may 31 2012


Valid 311200z - 011200z


....OH valley to mid-south...
Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of cold front during midday/early
afternoon hours local time...especially near surface low and adjoining
cold/warm frontal segments where surface convergence will be relatively
maximized. Additional development will occur farther SW along/ahead
of front...although timing is more uncertain with patchy
coverage...given
1. More westerly/veered/weaker prefrontal surface winds over middle-south
compared to farther north...limiting convergence...and
2. Potential hindrances to heating due to remnant cloud cover from
convection farther west. This factor also may affect Ohio Valley
region...but would be more crucial here given weaker ambient lift.


Tornado potential appears relatively maximized...for either
quasi-linear or briefly supercellular Mode...within large-hodograph
environment just east/southeast of surface low and in vicinity of warm front. This area
will be characterized by relatively large low-level backing/srh and
northern rim of at least marginal warm-sector buoyancy. Damaging gusts are
likely from any sustained convection over this corridor...with some
Bow/lewp structures possible.


..S Texas...
Although low-level forcing may be rather weak in vicinity of frontal
zone...existing lift combined with intense diurnal heating should
suffice for thunderstorm formation during middle-late afternoon. Air mass may
become extremely buoyant as surface dew points middle 60s to low 70s f
support MLCAPE 3000-4000 j/kg. Magnitude of low-middle level flow
will be modest...generally at or below 15 knots through most of surface-550 mb
layer. However...strong veering with height will occur...not just into
midlevels but further upward through cape-bearing layer.
Upper-level/venting winds will increase with southward extent in proximity
to subtropical jet branch. As such...sufficient deep-layer shear is
expected to at least transient/heavy-precip supercell structures.
Large/damaging hail is likely from any such convection. Potential
also exists for localized but intense cold-pool development...with
well-mixed subcloud layers supporting damaging wind threat.
At this time...specific nodes of enhanced potential near front are too
uncertain to draw greater wind or hail probabilities over smaller
area.


.Edwards/leitman.. 05/31/2012
Here you can see the storms outrunning the front, while new storms form along the frong at 23z:
Wow, air temp 101, dew point 9, and weather... Smoke! Go figure.
The GFS is showing a storm in the gulf?..mmm
Quoting biff4ugo:
Wow, air temp 101, dew point 9, and weather... Smoke! Go figure.


ewwwww, you in the southwest? NM maybe?
D 4-8 Convective Outlook:
OTHER SEVERE TSTMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT.


I wonder if this is from the backdoor cold front, because i see no other front coming.
A Gulf system?? Well,,we need some rain.
Quoting beeleeva:
A Gulf system?? Well,,we need some rain.
It's well over 300 hours out.But it does show that we may need to watch the Gulf in these up coming weeks.It could spin up something once the pattern becomes more favorable for development.
Quoting beeleeva:
A Gulf system?? Well,,we need some rain.


Just like the black guy named Serrano used to say in the movie "Major League"

Bring that $!#T to me man!
Cap to be destroyed

Helllllllo?.Anybody out there?

Post 557 can you post one for the mid-atlantic?
557. Jax82
Even with all of Beryl's fury, the drought goes on.

Quoting severstorm:
Morning All, Looks like some good rains are coming to the Tampa bay area on friday.


Chance of rain is 70%. I'll believe it when it hits me on top of the head. Something just tells me that south of us is going to get hit and we'll miss out.
Quoting Jax82:
Even with all of Beryl's fury, the drought goes on.



it barely rained in central GA, so they still have a drought.
Heads up tomorrow, Washintonian and wxgeek- when I finish with all the storms, I will send them off in your direction :) As a proud member of the hill folk culture, may I say with fanfare and flourish... "it's a-comin!"

Link
Quoting goosegirl1:
Heads up tomorrow, Washintonian and wxgeek- when I finish with all the storms, I will send them off in your direction :) As a proud member of the hill folk culture, may I say with fanfare and flourish... "it's a-comin!"

Link
My weather forecaster said nothing about this.All he said was "it's quite out there now".Oh no!.We need the rain but not the server weather that comes with it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
My weather forecaster said nothing about this.All he said was "it's quite out there now".Oh no!.We need the rain but not the server weather that comes with it.


FWIW, the weather channel has a Torcon of 4 for the DC area tomorrow. Although that index is just a simplified way of telling the public the same info they can find on noaa.gov, by looking at the probabilities of severe weather.
Quoting goosegirl1:


FWIW, the weather channel has a Torcon of 4 for the DC area tomorrow. Although that index is just a simplified way of telling the public the same info they can find on noaa.gov, by looking at the probabilities of severe weather.
Dammit my son is having a school picnic tomorrow.I've should've known with this humid air mass in place all week that something bad was waiting for us.
Quoting RitaEvac:



Looks like the southern part of that line will go just East of Houston. We should have another squall line develop later today and push through all of SE Texas.
Front in Texas is ahead of schedule, suppose to move thru there early to mid afternoon at latest, may or may not rain? Mid to upper 90s here over the weekend so this will be a shortlived break.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:



Looks like the southern part of that line will go just East of Houston. We should have another squall line develop later today and push through all of SE Texas.


It's gonna back-build to the SW, check radar and you'll see it already doing it
Quoting washingtonian115:
Dammit my son is having a school picnic tomorrow.I've should've known with this humid air mass in place all week that something bad was waiting for us.


The system is predicted to exit the Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, so it will be a couple of hours after that before you should get it, with any luck. I hope his picnic is over before the weather ramps up.

570. MahFL
Quoting Jax82:
Even with all of Beryl's fury, the drought goes on.



I got 4.7 inches in Orange Park. I think for it to have been a drought buster here we'd have needed 12 or more inches. But 4.7 is not to be sneezed at.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Front in Texas is ahead of schedule, suppose to move thru there early to mid afternoon at latest, may or may not rain? Mid to upper 90s here over the weekend so this will be a shortlived break.


You might be getting rocked later today, with heating and storms moving your way.
We're erasing our drought here in D.C.Sorry Tampa.
Quoting Jax82:
Even with all of Beryl's fury, the drought goes on.



Put a nice dent it in though, and also..

Tampa shields in full effect, now we have a map that shows the radius! Seriously, what's up with that? Tampa received hardly any rain. Where's Jedkins? I need someone to rant with about this.
Really pretty map of 56 years worth of Tornado activity created by John Nelson using data.gov.

Even though he used a straight-line start point to end point representation and not a 'true path' representation you can clearly see the intensity of tornadoes clustered in Dixie Alley.

Also... damn, that's a lot of lines.
we are supposed to get up to the 90's today but I dont even care..I can actually see the sun!! NWS, Wilmington, NC concerning the severe weather threat tomorrow

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS 5H TROUGH
IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH FRI
MORNING. FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHILE THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHES CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GET THE JOB DONE.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRI IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LOW SRH IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND/HAIL EVENT IN
THE FORM OF BROKEN LINE WITH ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.
THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE
AROUND...OUTFLOWS AND SEABREEZE...CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.
I don't know why Upper TX coast is in the clear, but we should be in the yellow, friggin dried up out here, grass is brown along the roads where the heat is, tells me it's ABNORMALLY DRY.

NICE gravity wave pushing off the TX and LA coast on visible loop
Quoting ncstorm:
we are supposed to get up to the 90's today but I dont even care..I can actually see the sun!! NWS, Wilmington, NC concerning the severe weather threat tomorrow

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS 5H TROUGH
IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH FRI
MORNING. FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHILE THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHES CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GET THE JOB DONE.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRI IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LOW SRH IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND/HAIL EVENT IN
THE FORM OF BROKEN LINE WITH ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.
THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE
AROUND...OUTFLOWS AND SEABREEZE...CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.
yes Beryl is out to sea and the suns out here too, rain tomorrow but a nice day today for us here
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Put a nice dent it in though, and also..

Tampa shields in full effect, now we have a map that shows the radius! Seriously, what's up with that? Tampa received hardly any rain. Where's Jedkins? I need someone to rant with about this.
lol Tampa really needs to lower the shields huh, we need the rain here too
The remnants of Beryl info.
AL, 02, 2012053112, , BEST, 0, 370N, 705W, 35, 1000, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 130, 100, 0,

35 kt 1000mb weakening.

Here's a look at the whole Atlantic basin. I see a big extratropical cyclone northeast of Beryl. Is Beryl supposed to be absorbed by this one?

And, I see a patch of clouds east of the Yucatan Peninsula. I'm not good at looking at the models, so I'll ask you guys. Could the system develop into a tropical cyclone?

Also, what is vorticity and how is it related to tropical cyclones? I couldn't understand when you guys were talking about it.
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-312000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE KEYS AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO 2 TO 4 INCHES SOUTH
OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED DURING THESE
EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME A
POSSIBILITY WHERE THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED.
INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES
THROUGH THIS TIME. AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

$$

BAXTER
Quoting Bobbyweather:
The remnants of Beryl info.
AL, 02, 2012053112, , BEST, 0, 370N, 705W, 35, 1000, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 130, 100, 0,

35 kt 1000mb weakening.

Here's a look at the whole Atlantic basin. I see a big extratropical cyclone northeast of Beryl. Is Beryl supposed to be absorbed by this one?

And, I see a patch of clouds east of the Yucatan Peninsula. I'm not good at looking at the models, so I'll ask you guys. Could the system develop into a tropical cyclone?

Also, what is vorticity and how is it related to tropical cyclones? I couldn't understand when you guys were talking about it.

Yes, ex-Beryl should be absorbed into that extratropical system.

No, that patch of clouds is not a threat to develop.

Vorticity is the amount of spin a (in this instance) tropical cyclone has.
Quoting dogsgomoo:
Really pretty map of 56 years worth of Tornado activity created by John Nelson using data.gov.

Even though he used a straight-line start point to end point representation and not a 'true path' representation you can clearly see the intensity of tornadoes clustered in Dixie Alley.

Also... damn, that's a lot of lines.


is that a tornado that crossed FL? Wow.
Well I know you all maybe forgot but..tomorrow is the OFFICIAL start of hurricane season.And this year will be the 20th anniversary of hurricane Andrew.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I know you all maybe forgot but..tomorrow is the OFFICIAL start of hurricane season.And this year will be the 20th anniversary of hurricane Andrew.


As the first storm of the season will start as a "C" and will be the 3rd.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
The remnants of Beryl info.

Here's a look at the whole Atlantic basin. I see a big extratropical cyclone northeast of Beryl. Is Beryl supposed to be absorbed by this one?

And, I see a patch of clouds east of the Yucatan Peninsula. I'm not good at looking at the models, so I'll ask you guys. Could the system develop into a tropical cyclone?

Also, what is vorticity and how is it related to tropical cyclones? I couldn't understand when you guys were talking about it.


http://www.google.com/custom?hl=en&client=pub-229 6614687681548&cof=FORID%3A1%3BGL%3A1%3BLBGC%3A3366 99%3BLC%3A%230000ff%3BVLC%3A%23663399%3BGFNT%3A%23 0000ff%3BGIMP%3A%230000ff%3BDIV%3A%23336699%3B&dom ains=www.theweatherprediction.com&ie=ISO-8859-1&oe =ISO-8859-1&q=vorticity tropical&btnG=Search&sitesearch=www.theweatherpred iction.com


http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/56/
Quoting RitaEvac:
NICE gravity wave pushing off the TX and LA coast on visible loop


Also known as "Bore's". Bores can be windy, and actually raise the temperature briefly, helping storms to form, notice how they form here



courtesy of Alabamawx.com
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's gonna back-build to the SW, check radar and you'll see it already doing it


Yea it is definitely trying too. I noticed that as well but have seen it before and it doesn't quite make it here. I didn't want to jinx it lol
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Also known as "Bore's". Bores can be windy, and actually raise the temperature briefly, helping storms to form, notice how they form here



That's an outflow boundary, I think Gravity waves are high up in the atmosphere, anybody wanna jump in on that?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I know you all maybe forgot but..tomorrow is the OFFICIAL start of hurricane season.And this year will be the 20th anniversary of hurricane Andrew.


The 1992 "A" storm...
One some wish they could forget.
An eye-opener for many.

Edit:1992 Storm..Thanks washintonian115
first cup "o" coffee,thats stike one for me..lol :)
Quoting pcola57:


The 2002 "A" storm...
One some wish they could forget.
An eye-opener for many.
You mean 1992?.585 that would certainly be weird.
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Also known as "Bore's". Bores can be windy, and actually raise the temperature briefly, helping storms to form, notice how they form here



courtesy of Alabamawx.com


That is definitely an outflow boundary. That is air pushed out well ahead of the storm which allows the storm to breath and get stronger. Usually will drop the temp and raise the pressure. These are also known as gust fronts.
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Also known as "Bore's". Bores can be windy, and actually raise the temperature briefly, helping storms to form, notice how they form here



courtesy of Alabamawx.com

That's an outflow boundary.
Gravity Waves over the Gulf of Mexico

Well see I thought the same thing but came across that site that described that loop as a thunderstorm made gravity wave. Still alot I dont know about gravity waves but they seem to be generated in the same way
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Yea it is definitely trying too. I noticed that as well but have seen it before and it doesn't quite make it here. I didn't want to jinx it lol


Latest radar definitely showing it missing us
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Gravity Waves over the Gulf of Mexico




See now that looks like a gravity wave, but the visible that Rita was talking about, too looked like an outflow boundary to me
Quoting WDEmobmet:



See now that looks like a gravity wave, but the visible that Rita was talking about, too looked like an outflow boundary to me


Notice the low levels of the gulf still moving northward as the gravity wave above higher up moves SE over the Gulf in an arc fashion
Actually this is the affects of a gravity wave. Can't actually see it moving.

Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Gravity Waves over the Gulf of Mexico



Very cool..What in the world causes them?

Quoting RitaEvac:


Notice the low levels of the gulf still moving northward as the gravity wave above higher up moves SE over the Gulf in an arc fashion


Nice explaination of what to look for Rita
Quoting hydrus:
Talk about a moist Atlantic.Totally opposite from last year.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Notice the low levels of the gulf still moving northward as the gravity wave above higher up moves SE over the Gulf in an arc fashion



yea i see the lower clouds in the central gulf are moving northwards towards the texas coast, it does appear as though they are pilling up. I see what your pointing towards, there is a couple more frames added to it now and can clearly see the Gravity wave stacking into an arc
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
May 31, 2012 - 13:45 UTC
Quoting RitaEvac:


Latest radar definitely showing it missing us


Sure does. It is still trying to build towards the West but it better hurry up. Will be interesting once that entire mass gets down towards us. May have some pretty nice storms coming together later this afternoon
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Gravity Waves over the Gulf of Mexico

That is an awesome picture . Thank you for posting it.
I assume if flying in an airliner towards it, you're gonna hit turbulence
Beryl now entering the Hurricane Graveyard

Post 601 anyone?
It's ok now I'm on my 2nd cup of coffee now..lol
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Gravity Waves over the Gulf of Mexico


What are they
Quoting pcola57:


Very cool..What in the world causes them?



Nice explaination of what to look for Rita


It is a pretty crazy phenomenon. The waves from the ocean push the wind above the water surface up and down and in turn make waves in the clouds. That is about as simple as I can explain it. If anyone else has a better way of saying it, feel free to chime in.
I must say, I've been impressed with the GFS in regards to both Severe and Tropical Weather so far this year. It nailed the March 2 and April 14 outbreaks while they were in the long range, and pretty much nailed Beryl down 300 hours out. It's starting to gain consistency on a Gulf of Mexico storm towards the end of its run in mid-June.

00Z hour 384:



06Z hour 384:

Quoting weatherh98:

What are they


For a visual weather98 see Post 594 (or 616 for that matter)
Quoting WDEmobmet:



See now that looks like a gravity wave, but the visible that Rita was talking about, too looked like an outflow boundary to me
yeah, the mechanisms of outflow and gravity waves, or bores, is a bit different... though, an outflow boundary can certainly propagate undular bores, but they will ripple out ahead of the actual outflow boundary.
Look west of Houston on this radar loop, another gravity wave moving south, note the popcorn cells intensify then weaken as the wave moves southward

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've been impressed with the GFS in regards to both Severe and Tropical Weather. It nailed the March 2 and April 14 outbreaks while they were in the long range, and pretty much nailed Beryl down 300+ hours out. It's starting to gain consistency on a Gulf of Mexico storm towards the end of its run in mid-June.

00Z hour 384:



06Z hour 384:


I mean, it DID get a major upgrade a week and a half ago.... Maybe now it'll be as good as the Euro in the long range.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've been impressed with the GFS in regards to both Severe and Tropical Weather. It nailed the March 2 and April 14 outbreaks while they were in the long range, and pretty much nailed Beryl down 300+ hours out. It's starting to gain consistency on a Gulf of Mexico storm towards the end of its run in mid-June.

00Z hour 384:



06Z hour 384:

DOOM!!.I find it interesting that the models have been having almost every single tropical storm on the runs hanging around the U.S.Mmmmm
Quoting WxGeekVA:
WXGeek keep an eye to the sky tomorrow...
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


It is a pretty crazy phenomenon. The waves from the ocean push the wind above the water surface up and down and in turn make waves in the clouds. That is about as simple as I can explain it. If anyone else has a better way of saying it, feel free to chime in.
this is false. gravity waves do not start at the ocean surface wave action.
here is a nice little breakdown: Link
it has a lot more to do with stable and unstable layers of air adjacent to each other.

edit: there are a wide variety of 'gravity waves' and there were some beautiful ones yesterday in TX as layers of air destabilized preceding the pop-up of the supercellular line.. if anyone has a southern plains visible loop from yesterday, they will be quite apparent :)
Quoting WxGeekVA:

Yeah.

Hey WxGeekVA, ready for tomorrow's potential MDT risk?



"SOMEWHAT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES/PERHAPS EVEN A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.
"
Quoting Minnemike:
yeah, the mechanisms of outflow and gravity waves, or bores, is a bit different... though, an outflow boundary can certainly propagate undular bores, but they will ripple out ahead of the actual outflow boundary.


Hmm interesting, will have to research further. Thanks
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Minnemike:
this is false. gravity waves do not start at the ocean surface wave action.
here is a nice little breakdown: Link
it has a lot more to do with stable and unstable layers of air adjacent to each other.


I think DavidHOUTX was trying to simplify it for us here...to get to my level you have to..lol
Thanks for your input to Minnemike...:)
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Hmm interesting, will have to research further. Thanks
outflow is simply the descending column of air from a thunderstorm fanning out across the surface. in fact, i think they usually cool an environment, with the exception of some downbursts(microbursts) that actually do warm air due to thermodynamic properties. i know less about those...
Quoting pcola57:


I think DavidHOUTX was trying to simplify it for us here...to get to my level you have to..lol
Thanks for your input to Minnemike...:)
it isn't simplification if it is false though.. i mean, i see where you're coming from, but it could just be simplified as waves moving through the air.. much Like waves in water.. friction between two layers of fluid..