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Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl Band
Beryl Band

Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

This blog is dead.

Looks like the Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic could have severe weather.
1002. Jax82
Captured one of the last bands of Beryl going through Jax Beach last night, not bad for an Iphone, eh. Taken around 9:30pm.



Already 3" to 4" of rain this morning on top of 12" to 16" that fell yesterday.

Quoting Jax82:
Captured one of the last bands of Beryl going through Jax Beach last night, not bad for an Iphone, eh. Taken around 9:30pm.






Very nice!! I'm book marking these pics. Very cool! Thanks for sharing.
Dew points near 80 in N C FL. WOW!!

Muggy, steamy, dead calm here with temps around 80 in SE TX near the coast
Quoting aspectre:
949 Bern99: Well, here's a quote from the Ars Technica article about it: "the radioactivity caused by the cesium was about 30 times below that caused naturally by radioactive potassium. So, the tuna don't present a health threat to anyone involved."
The radiation level is ~4 Becquerels per kilogram (Bq/kg), from one article I read. The average banana has 15 Bq of radioactive potassium...


And a kilogram of bananas doses at ~130Bq... which doesn't have much to do with anything*.
The levels cited are found in bluefin caught on the American side of the Pacific, after the bluefin have diluted their contamination load both through normal growth and normal metabolic elimination while crossing the ocean. It'd be higher in those on the Asian side.

Bluefin flesh is so highly valued that trade is worldwide: ie the industry flies the fish from the first-market port to wherever the price is the highest.
And there is no point-of-origin labeling required or voluntarily given out. After the first-market port, wholesale buyers don't care where the bluefin came from -- certainly not enough to attempt any sort of verification even if they were to be told something -- making it highly unlikely that the retailer would know or wanna know. So the sashimi / sushi topping could easily be more radioactive than a consumer would personally think of as safe.

My own view is that anything that can scare off bluefin buyers is a positive for the species' survival, and for the bluefin industry in the long run.

* Even if the banana-scale were as applicable to real-life exposure to radioactive industrial waste as folks like to pretend.


The "banana scale" does apply. If your measuring radiation in Bq, it doesn't matter if the radiation comes from salt substitute, bananas, a spent fuel rod, or tobacco. A Bq is a Bq. Using a banana is just a convenient unit that most people can relate to, which is a good thing since the media gets a tad sensationalistic.

There are other scales which take into account the type and exposure of radiation, but that isn't what was being discussed.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Muggy, steamy, dead calm here with temps around 80 in SE TX near the coast
75 here for a low, 98 percent humidity, little to no rain in our future.
Water temps along SE TX in low 80s, prime time for tropical development to start in the NW gulf. Need a front to sag offshore and get a feature to root to the surface and hang around for a few days
1010. Brock31
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Beryl is looking good this morning.



Pressure is 29.59 and dropping. Winds at the beach gusting to 37 earlier and now sustained at around 30 mph.

We still have a few bands to come through closer to the center of circulation.
Earlier a comment was made that the current location of the Bermuda High would be a main factor for U.S. landfalling storms this season. What conditions would allow the location of this High to be 'fixed' for the season. I mean, it's not like it is set in stone, right? So is 2004 an analogous year?
Beryl finally fell apart:


Might not make TD by NC after all:
1013. pcola57
It's 80 degrees,humid @ 76% here at 8:10 am local..uggghhh
Quoting RitaEvac:
Water temps along SE TX in low 80s, prime time for tropical development to start in the NW gulf. Need a front to sag offshore and get a feature to root to the surface and hang around for a few days
That would be nice send it this way and let it go thru Texas. Going to be difficult though with that big ridge of High Pressure out West of me.
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL, IN TURN, PULL LARGE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIB SEA NORTH ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SO DECIDED TO TO GO WITH LIKELY
SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD.


Missed Beryl by that much....
Derived from ATCF data for TropicalDepressionBeryl on 30May12pmGMT:
MaxSusWinds have held steady at 30knots
MinimumPressure has decreased from 1002millibars to 1001millibars
The ENEasternmost dot on the connected lines is TDBeryl's most recent ATCF position, 33.7n78.8w

TDBeryl was moving a bit faster than could be derived from combining the most recent ATCF and NHCAdvisory positions,
and a bit to the north of a straightline projection though those ATCF and NHCAdvisory positions.
Should have made NorthCarolina landfall by now near 60J OceanIsleBeach,
and should soon head out to sea again after passing about midway between ILM Wilmington and 03NC CarolinaBeach.

The previous mapping from 30May6amGMT
Quoting pcola57:
It's 80 degrees,humid @ 76% here at 8:10 am local..uggghhh


Same here, no wind, uncomfortable
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That would be nice send it this way and let it go thru Texas. Going to be difficult though with that big ridge of High Pressure out West of me.


There is a front that is supposed to move offshore this Friday but washout and return north
02L DEACTIVATE
Today(10%T/ 45%W/ 45%H):


Tomorrow:


Friday:


You could probably continue the 30%risk from where it is tomorrow to where it is on friday given that night storms are not always displayed well on convective outlooks.
1022. pcola57
.
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning Beryl



that is an old picture, see the one i posted above for what it looks like now.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Beryl finally fell apart:


Might not make TD by NC after all:

she is not really falling apart it just her center starting to feel the water becoming unstable looking like its dying but after a few hour over water she will regain her strength
1025. pcola57
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that is an old picture, see the one i posted above for what it looks like now.


By Georgia your right!!
LOL...I will see if I can come up with the new one from Naval Labs.


Good Morning All
1027. Brock31
1001 mb here and still falling
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

she is not really falling apart it just her center starting to feel the water becoming unstable looking like its dying but after a few hour over water she will regain her strength
she is done kid thats it warm waters are close to shore after that she will need a sweater
1029. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Beryl finally fell apart:


Might not make TD by NC after all:
Good morning. Beryl could become quite a storm when it moves out over the far Atlantic...Our trough is still looking rather potent..
1030. ncstorm
Rain...and lots of it this morning!
1031. pcola57
Naval Lab. dropped it yesterday at 0125z..
Thanks GeorgiaStormz for pointing that out.
I usually catch those things :)
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning. Beryl could become quite a storm when it moves out over the far Atlantic...Our trough is still looking rather potent..


i am hoping the other major models trend more toward that solution, or else the action will be by you and north.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
she is done kid thats it warm waters are close to shore after that she will need a sweater

#1 don't call me kid I'm not a kid
#2 yes and when she is in that water she would try to rapidly make a comeback
#3 yes once she leaves that warm water she is dead
1035. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
she is done kid thats it warm waters are close to shore after that she will need a sweater
Good morning Keep..Rather fat swathe for tomorrow..Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 am CDT Wednesday may 30 2012


Valid 311200z - 011200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of Texas/lower MS
River Valley to Tennessee/Ohio River valleys...


...
A considerable late may upper trough will steadily amplify while
otherwise spreading east-southeastward over much of the east-central
Continental U.S. On Thursday. Some storm/mesoscale-driven forecast details are
still uncertain...but a broad area of severe potential will likely
exist to the east-southeast of an eastward moving surface low across
the middle MS valley/lower Ohio Valley...and along/ahead of an
associated east-southeastward moving cold front.


..arklatex/lower MS River Valley to Tennessee/Ohio River valleys and
central/southern Appalachians...
it seems likely than an mesoscale convective system and/or its associated
remnants...including possible convective outflow/an mesoscale convective vortex...will be
early day factors come Thursday morning across the region. This
could be somewhere across the arklatex/Ozarks to the adjacent MS
River Valley. Perhaps even more so than the east-southeast advancing
synoptic cold front...possible outflow/mesoscale convective vortex influences will be the
primary/effective influencing factors that aid subsequent storm
development/reinvigoration into Thursday afternoon. This would be
within a relatively broad moist/potentially unstable pre-cold
frontal warm sector across the Lower/Middle MS River Valley to Tennessee
Valley/perhaps lower Ohio Valley...where pockets of stronger
heating/moderate destabilization should occur Thursday
afternoon/early evening. Damaging winds and some severe hail will be
the primary hazards...although some tornado threat cannot be ruled
out across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity near/east of the surface low
should convective Mode permit.


A severe threat could continue/ultimately reach as far
east-northeast as the Ohio River valley and central/southern
Appalachians vicinity...perhaps even with a nocturnal/early Friday
increase. This would be aided by the onset of a cyclone deepening
phase/trend toward a more neutral tilt upper trough with an
associated strengthening wind field. As such...damaging winds and
some tornado risk could exist in these areas Thursday night/early
Friday on an isolated basis.
1036. Brock31
Quoting ncstorm:
Rain...and lots of it this morning!


Our rain gauge here at work (In Ogden) read 3.25 inches this morning. That was about 45 minutes ago.
1037. hydrus
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 don't call me kid I'm not a kid
#2 yes and when she is in that water she would try to rapidly make a comeback
#3 yes once she leaves that warm water she is dead
#1. Kid is in your handle, and is easier then typing WunderkidCayman every time someone converses with you..#2. Keeper of the Gate is one of the most esteemed people on this blog, and was not belittling you. #3. He is most likely 3 or 4 times older than you are, show some respect..:)
1038. K8eCane
Quoting Brock31:


Our rain gauge here at work (In Ogden) read 3.25 inches this morning. That was about 45 minutes ago.


HEYYYYY... hope it dont flood my favorite spot in Ogden...Jackpots Sweepstakes And Games ( although I certainly havent played lately, too broke)
Rain and more Rain for me!!:)
1040. hydrus
This is nothing short of weird..
1041. Patrap
..."upon us all, all, a lil rain must fall, jus a lil rain"...
Good Morning

Quoting hydrus:
This is nothing short of weird..


Bring it on as that front is progged to stall over N FL early next week and just dump copious amounts of rain on the northern half of the state.

Quoting hydrus:
This is nothing short of weird..


is that a backdoor cold front?
Looks like we got lucky with Beryl here in Charleston. A little wind, a little rain and just a little amount of yard debris to clean up. Could have been much worse.
Beryl, my lawn thanks you.
1047. unf97
Post 1040

That is an unusually deep trough being depicted by those GFS models going out 7 days for this time of year in early June.

It will be intersting to see if this actually comes close to verifying as we get into next week.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is that a backdoor cold front?


Yup.
Wait, Beryl strengthend over land?
Quoting unf97:
Post 1040

That is an unusually deep trough being depicted by those GFS models going out 7 days for this time of year in early June.

It will be intersting to see if this actually comes close to verifying as we get into next week.


Yeah as that pattern is a wet one for FL during the wet season. Will also need to watchout for a home grown system off the SE US in that pattern.

Multiple outflow boundaries in TX, things going bonkers tomm and tomm night
1052. Brock31
1000 mb
1053. unf97
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah as that pattern is a wet one for FL during the wet season. Will also need to watchout for a home grown system off the SE US in that pattern.



Yep. We have to watch for those trough splits and that is what occured early last year in the season. Trough splits spawned the development of Bret and Cindy off the SE US coast last season.
1054. JNCali
And now a short weather related story..
Started the day hot and humid here in Mid TN yesterday. About 3:00 clouds started gathering providing some nice shade while I mowed the yard, cell phone text message alert went off about time the first thunder happened.. Severe T-Storm alert... Starting pouring and blowing (maybe 30 not too bad) Cold though.. all that air rushing down from 30K feet.. I got thoroughly soaked riding the mower to the nearest tree for some cover. Sitting under the tree the lightning cracked overhead and thought I'd better get out from under the tree maybe.. so I headed for the truck.. Had to turn the heater on it got so cold where it had been in the mid 90's moments prior... Can't wait for Summer!

Quoting hydrus:
This is nothing short of weird..
,a possible trough split and another TC possible off the SE coastline in about a week?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 don't call me kid I'm not a kid
#2 yes and when she is in that water she would try to rapidly make a comeback
#3 yes once she leaves that warm water she is dead


By calling you "kid" I don't think he was being disrespectful. It is in your handle.
1057. K8eCane
Quoting stillwaiting:
,a possible trough split and another TC possible off the SE coastline in about a week?



GMAB
(give me a break)
Quoting JNCali:
And now a short weather related story..
Started the day hot and humid here in Mid TN yesterday. About 3:00 clouds started gathering providing some nice shade while I mowed the yard, cell phone text message alert went off about time the first thunder happened.. Severe T-Storm alert... Starting pouring and blowing (maybe 30 not too bad) Cold though.. all that air rushing down from 30K feet.. I got thoroughly soaked riding the mower to the nearest tree for some cover. Sitting under the tree the lightning cracked overhead and thought I'd better get out from under the tree maybe.. so I headed for the truck.. Had to turn the heater on it got so cold where it had been in the mid 90's moments prior... Can't wait for Summer!



Going under a tree while in a lightning storm is not smart. Your lucky you didn't get struck as we could have been hearing your demise on ther 6pm news.
1059. MTWX
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Keep..Rather fat swathe for tomorrow..Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 am CDT Wednesday may 30 2012


Valid 311200z - 011200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of Texas/lower MS
River Valley to Tennessee/Ohio River valleys...


...
A considerable late may upper trough will steadily amplify while
otherwise spreading east-southeastward over much of the east-central
Continental U.S. On Thursday. Some storm/mesoscale-driven forecast details are
still uncertain...but a broad area of severe potential will likely
exist to the east-southeast of an eastward moving surface low across
the middle MS valley/lower Ohio Valley...and along/ahead of an
associated east-southeastward moving cold front.


..arklatex/lower MS River Valley to Tennessee/Ohio River valleys and
central/southern Appalachians...
it seems likely than an mesoscale convective system and/or its associated
remnants...including possible convective outflow/an mesoscale convective vortex...will be
early day factors come Thursday morning across the region. This
could be somewhere across the arklatex/Ozarks to the adjacent MS
River Valley. Perhaps even more so than the east-southeast advancing
synoptic cold front...possible outflow/mesoscale convective vortex influences will be the
primary/effective influencing factors that aid subsequent storm
development/reinvigoration into Thursday afternoon. This would be
within a relatively broad moist/potentially unstable pre-cold
frontal warm sector across the Lower/Middle MS River Valley to Tennessee
Valley/perhaps lower Ohio Valley...where pockets of stronger
heating/moderate destabilization should occur Thursday
afternoon/early evening. Damaging winds and some severe hail will be
the primary hazards...although some tornado threat cannot be ruled
out across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity near/east of the surface low
should convective Mode permit.


A severe threat could continue/ultimately reach as far
east-northeast as the Ohio River valley and central/southern
Appalachians vicinity...perhaps even with a nocturnal/early Friday
increase. This would be aided by the onset of a cyclone deepening
phase/trend toward a more neutral tilt upper trough with an
associated strengthening wind field. As such...damaging winds and
some tornado risk could exist in these areas Thursday night/early
Friday on an isolated basis.


I'm just about smack in the middle of the sight risk area for tomorrow, but they only got us a 20% chance of rain... We'll just have to wait to see how it unfolds.
1060. Patrap
Quoting luvtogolf:


By calling you "kid" I don't think he was being disrespectful. It is in your handle.


A wu Birther scandal?

Hmmmmmm...........
1061. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is that a backdoor cold front?
I,m still looking.
Houston waiter receives $5K tip after storm destroys his car


This is the actual $5,000 cash wad that server Greg Rubar received Saturday.
/ HC
1063. K8eCane
OK Day after tomorrow is official start. These may help us move a little faster.

PDNH (Please Do Not Hype)
ADFS (another damn fish storm)
DFTT (dont feed the trolls)
ISYRM (I suggest you remove that)
ITAYGB (Im Telling And You're Getting Banned)
ROFLMDO to be used only by Grothar (rolling on floor laughing my dentures out)
KMAF (Kiss My A*& Fool)
1065. MTWX
Quoting K8eCane:
OK Day after tomorrow is official start. These may help us move a little faster.

PDNH (Please Do Not Hype)
ADFS (another damn fish storm)
DFTT (dont feed the trolls)
ISYRM (I suggest you remove that)
ITAYGB (Im Telling And You're Getting Banned)
ROFLMDO to be used only by Grothar (rolling on floor laughing my dentures out)
KMAF (Kiss My A*& Fool)


Thats all we need is more dang accronyms!! LOL!! ;)
Hey check out my video from last month- It Only Takes One Hurricane. I will have a new video out on the first. Link
1067. K8eCane
Quoting MTWX:


Thats all we need is more dang accronyms!! LOL!! ;)


Im sorry. I got bored
Recent Conditions -- Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy

Air temperature: 24.3 °C (76.3 °F)
Dewpoint temperature: 22.4 °C (72.8 °F)
Sea level pressure: 1002.6 hPa (29.6 in)
Significant wave height: 3.4 m (11.2 ft)
Water temperature: 24.2 °C (76.1 °F)
Wind gust speed: 20.0 m/s (38.9 kts)
Wind speed: 16.0 m/s (31.1 kts)
Last reported: 10:50 AM GMT 05/30/2012
5:50 AM EST 05/30/2012
In the 7 1/2hrs Beryl has been over water again pressure has gone from 1014mb to 1009mb, CI# 1.0 to 2.0, all weakening flags are off & the scene is once again shear..
1071. hydrus
1072. ncstorm
NWS in Wilmington, NC

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL NOW MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PROGS MOVE
BERYL ENE ALONG THE COAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...WITH THE CENTER MOVING
OVER WATER BY THE 12Z FORECAST POINT...WHICH WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF
GEORGETOWN SC. BERYL STRENGTHENS OVER WATER AND AGAIN BECOMES A
TROPICAL STORM...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AT 8 PM.

RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL NOT AS HIGH THUS FAR AS
ANTICIPATED. LATEST RADAR LOOPS HOW RAINFALL CONCENTRATED ON THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF BERYL...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW
COVERING ALL OUR SC COUNTIES. STORM ITSELF IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS
OF ELONGATION AND TILTING AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW DRY AIR
BECOMING ENTRAINED AROUND ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE CENTER...AND A
MOVE OVER WARM COASTAL WATERS WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN AND THEN
STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES AT PRESENT DO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT...THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS BERYL REGAINS STRENGTH
AND...PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN IS THUS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY...SO WILL LEAVE PRESENT
FLOOD WATCH INTACT. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE ALREADY SMALL
TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FURTHER WITH THE LATEST UPDATE FROM
SPC. WE ARE NO LONGER IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

ALTHOUGH BERYL WILL STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AFTER IT
MOVES OVER WATER...THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE
SE QUADRANT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THUS NOT ANTICIPATED
OVER LAND. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40
KT RANGE IN STRONGER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN BERYLS RAIN BANDS.
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL AT PRESENT.

It looks like our next threat for cyclone development will once again be off the US East Coast. By the end of the ECMWF's forecasting period for the 2nd run in a row, a trough will be draped out over the Atlantic with the tail by the US East Coast that will 'pinch' off. This is a classic setup for trough split development, pretty similar to Bret last year and should be watched for ''Chris''. I will not predict development yet as the ECMWF doesn't even have a low pressure area but it's something to watch.
Quoting Skyepony:
In the 7 1/2hrs Beryl has been over water again pressure has gone from 1014mb to 1009mb, CI# 1.0 to 2.0, all weakening flags are off & the scene is once again shear..


Its been over water? I thought the center is still on land?
1075. ncstorm


From staff reports-Star News
Published: Wednesday, May 30, 2012 at 12:30 a.m.
Last Modified: Wednesday, May 30, 2012 at 6:01 a.m.

9:30 a.m. - Wreck near Memorial Bridge

There was a traffic accident Wednesday morning on the side of U.S. 74-76 near the Cape Fear Memorial Bridge just inside Brunswick County, according to Brunswick County dispatch.

It could not be determined immediately whether there were injuries as crews had just arrived on the scene.
9 a.m. - Water accumulates on U.S. 17

Water had accumulated on U.S. 17 near N.C. 87, and traffic was moving very slowly, the Brunswick County Sheriff's Office reported.
7:30 a.m. - Area could get 1 - 3 more inches of rain

The greatest rain totals in the Wilmington area Wednesday morning were 2 to 2.5 inches in northern New Hanover County, with reports of about 1.5 inches near Masonboro Island, said Rachel Zouzias, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Wilmington.

The weather service predicted one to three more inches of rain for the Wilmington area Wednesday.

Highest winds were about 34 miles an hour right along the coast in Oak Island and Calabash, with 10 to 15 miles an hour and gusts to 20 mph inland across the area, she said.

Gusts to 39 miles an hour were reported at a buoy offshore.

The worst of the storm hit across the border in South Carolina, where three to four inches of rain were reported inland in Horry County, Zouzias said.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah as that pattern is a wet one for FL during the wet season. Will also need to watchout for a home grown system off the SE US in that pattern.



Actually the models are completely eliminating rain chances after Sunday as they have been very adamant for the past three days on this anomalous trough bringing a strong(for this time of year) late season cold front right on through even south Florida by early next week. It looks to me the dry season will pay us one last visit.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Its been over water? I thought the center is still on land?


It's about 8hrs over water now. Kinda been riding up the coast. Radar can be deceiving since you see mid levels there too. Check out the link. Dvorak doesn't come up with much over land.
1079. Grothar
As the wave entering near the Antilles moves into the Caribbean,it may give a little boost to the Western Caribbean to get something going there in a few days.

Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Earlier a comment was made that the current location of the Bermuda High would be a main factor for U.S. landfalling storms this season. What conditions would allow the location of this High to be 'fixed' for the season. I mean, it's not like it is set in stone, right? So is 2004 an analogous year?


Typically by the end of May, the Bermuda high drops into a mean position. Obviously the position fluctuates as troughs come off the coast but for the most part, always returns to that general position. This is why timing is a key factor and steering is storm and time specific. General trends can be seen but finite steering absolutely not.