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Subtropical Storm Beryl forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:03 PM GMT on May 26, 2012

The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.

The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.


Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.


Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Legend/NCR/JAX_NCR_ Legend_0.gif>
JAX radar. Not sure if this auto-updates or not...


Link
Melbourne [MLB] radar. U can clearly see the curved bands along the S side of Beryl ATM....

Edit: OK, that didn't work, so am changing img to links.
Rainy season may not be fully here yet...

Saturday day 6



Sunday day 7

Quoting Jwd41190:


Where do you find that information at?


live recon on the north side of the circulation
I live in orlando but I'm going tubing on the lake in Sebring. Do you guys think conds. Will get to bad in Sebring?
1506. LargoFl
1507. unf97
Quoting BahaHurican:
Take care as you move about today. I can speak with recent experience that driving in heavy tropical downpours, especially if you haven't done it for a while, can be disconcerting. Also, if I remember correctly, that area east of the St Johns River is prone to flooding in heavy rain.

I hope everyone stays safe in all this. Beryl should be a "fun" experience if safety tips are followed.


Especially across the bridges here in Jacksonville, driving around during squalls with tropical storm wind gusts can be a frightening experience. That is one of the concerns here today. This may keep me from driving out to Jax Beach later today and tonight. The city generally closes off the city's highest bridges if winds reach sustained measured and gusts at 40 mph and higher. We'll see what happens later when Beryl approaches,
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Recon found 54 mph winds


Are they even close to the center/convection?
1509. LargoFl
1510. Seastep
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like Beryl took advantage of DMAX, might see a 60mph TS at peak before landfall tonight.


I think that is most likely. Don't think she'll just stay at 50mph, given recent sat and entering higher SSTs for a little bit.

Also, recon doesn't go from 1K ft to 5K ft for no reason. They weren't comfortable at 1K.

There has to be protocols for flight level related to strength.
1511. LargoFl
The CMC version of the trough is violent for TN valley.
The GFS has cylced back to weaker, for the carolinas
The ECMWF has a trough for the E coast
The tropical weather fairy model NOGAPS has a strong trough for the TN valley
MRF has a GFS type trough, but they always agree.


With this model consensus, this bears watching

several models look like they want to phase the jet streams.
1513. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
i cannot tell you folks How Hard the rain is coming down here, big gusts of wind, pouring wind driven rain, like I am IN..a tropical storm LOL..geez..but its good, we need this rain..Madiera beach get ready, its coming to you shortly


It's almost here...very dark now.
Well this is interesting.




Beryl is strengthening right now.
1515. LargoFl
Quoting icmoore:


It's almost here...very dark now.
your not going to believe how heavy that rain is going to be, and the wind..geez..clearing here now
1516. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Well this is interesting.




Beryl is strengthening right now.


some of those models are trending closer and closer to the mid-atlantic
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Well this is interesting.




Beryl is strengthening right now.




i thought the same thing would this not make the models shift a little or not
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Well this is interesting.




Beryl is strengthening right now.


where do u get your maps and loops? :)
I see Beryl possible going to 60 at the update and staying there till landfall, shouldnt cause too much damage.
Check out this CMC trough:

Quoting LargoFl:
can you imagine, 15 inches of rain in 3 days? if you live near a stream etc, pay attention to your local warnings



We had anywhere from 10 to 15 inches in just 3 to 4 hours a few years back here in much of Central and South Pinellas county. I'm surprised you don't remember that. Now that was crazy...
Here is an example of a subtropical storm attaining hurricane strength(80MPH) without fully acquiring tropical characteristics...

Subtropical Storm One(September 14th-September 23ed, 1968)

Quoting weatherbro:
Here is an example of a subtropical storm attaining hurricane strength(80MPH) without fully acquiring tropical characteristics...

Subtropical Storm One 1968


Andrea did it too.
Drought Buster?

Quoting weatherbro:
Rainy season may not be fully here yet...

Saturday day 6



Sunday day 7




Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm not buying some big frontal passage this far out, we'll see it when it happens. Besides that doesn't have much to do with proving the rain season or not, I've seen cold fronts clear through in June before and the month was still really wet. Also, we don't know if there will be quick recovery behind the front either, so don't be a negative nancy :)
1526. LargoFl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Drought Buster?

these rains sure will help us out.
Big difference between both those examples and Beryl is the eminent landfall.
Just got up; Good Morning People. The Gulf Stream is located about 100 miles East of Jacksonville and Beryl's COC, per the 8:00 PM advisory, was 160 miles East of Jax. We can do the math; the Western edge of her circulation is flowing from North to South right now over the Stream and her COC will be getting there and passing over it in the next 5-10 hours.

This is her final shot between now at this afternoon to go tropical; thankfully, it will not make that much difference at landfall for Jax and parts north whether She is subtropical or tropical in terms of forecasted wind speeds.

Nice to have Doppler on the way in.
1529. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:



We had anywhere from 10 to 15 inches in just 3 to 4 hours a few years back here in much of Central and South Pinellas county. I'm surprised you don't remember that. Now that was crazy...
oh yes i remember i was working in all that geez
Well, we get a head start on the rainfall amounts, picked up over 0.75 this morning from a fast moving but strong thunderstorm that was sliding down the coast this morning. I was waken surprised to hear it pouring rain with thunder and wind.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Drought Buster?



hey , i can never post images from TWC

But that wont be a drought buster.
Try 12-15in
First "Band" should be onshore shortly, conditions should go down hill in N Florida and S Georgia shortly after 12pm.

Quoting Articuno:

Andrea did it too.

Actually, Andrea attained hurricane force winds as an extratropical cyclone. For future reference when using those maps:
Triangles = Extratropical
Squares = Subtropical
Circles = Tropical
anyone can offer a link where i can see live coverage of beryl please
1535. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:
Well, we get a head start on the rainfall amounts, picked up over 0.75 this morning from a fast moving but strong thunderstorm that was sliding down the coast this morning. I was waken surprised to hear it pouring rain with thunder and wind.
lol it sure came down hard there for awhile
1536. LargoFl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Drought Buster?




Too bad TWC that we already got more than 0.5 inches at my house already this morning :)


I'm not that big on those type of rainfall forecasts, if they were always right we would get about half the rain per year than we normally would, lol.
Quoting Jedkins01:



No big surprise there, we have been calling for this all along t come in south of Jacksonville, way before some other bloggers jumped on the bandwagon :)

Anyways, I am actually suprised


Too bad TWC that we already got more than 0.5 inches at my house already this morning :)


St.Augustine, PV Beach looks like a landfall location.

On another note, Thank you Beryl for giving us Clear skies and 90 degree temps here in South Florida
1539. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Well this is interesting.




Beryl is strengthening right now.


I am going with the Euro..
Quoting LargoFl:
lol it sure came down hard there for awhile



Yeah it did, it was a nice morning surprise, we are actually near 4 inches for the month after that, which is near average :)
Im looking forward to a couple of rainy days here. My fields are just so dry.
1542. LargoFl
Good morning from Jacksonville Beach! It has been almost eerily quiet here this morning, but the wind is starting to pick up now. This will be an interesting couple of days.
This center just may come right into Flagler county as the center is now due east of St. Augustine and continuing to head WSW.

Another penney in the pot :)...

1546. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
your not going to believe how heavy that rain is going to be, and the wind..geez..clearing here now


Well, I thought for sure we were going to get walloped, too :) The radar was bright red and it appeared to be heading straight for Madeira but it seemed to want to pull more inland at the last minute. We got a very short light rain not enough to wet the fence panels or patio.
Quoting LargoFl:
oh yes i remember i was working in all that geez



Yeah, that was one crazy event, you might want to even call it a freak event, cause with passing time those thunderstorms seemed to get worse and worse, normally you can keep getting rain when you get a "training" event, but not continually thunderstorms as strong as they were one after another. The lightning and wind were ferocious through that whole event as well. Rainfall rates were persistently like 3 to 6 inches hour for a few hours.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm not buying some big frontal passage this far out, we'll see it when it happens. Besides that doesn't have much to do with proving the rain season or not, I've seen cold fronts clear through in June before and the month was still really wet. Also, we don't know if there will be quick recovery behind the front either, so don't be a negative nancy :)


Oh I know...I'm just kinda exited we're gonna see another late season front from this anomalous trough models have been touting about.
Told ya' Reed if you haven't left for work yet..we still might be in the running...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Another penney in the pot :)...

1550. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This center just may come right into Flagler county as the center is now due east of St. Augustine and continuing to head WSW.

whoa, we in central florida had better keep a good eye on this storm if this continues south of st augestine would be real bad for jacksonville, they would then be on the bad northern side of this storm
1551. LargoFl
1552. Seastep
Recon back down to 1K ft for center pass.
1553. xcool
we are on tropics chat again.
Join us, we are watching jacksonville beach cam
I am hoping that the models continue to trend further inland so those parched parts of Northern Florida and Central South Georgia can get the maximum amount of needed rain.......I am basically Westcasting for the rest of the day...... :)
Quoting xcool:



The WRF looks pretty solid compared to some of the models, while I don't see Beryl progressing that far inland, I also don't see it only barely making it inland before making the turn.
Quoting weatherbro:


Oh I know...I'm just kinda exited we're gonna see another late season front from this anomalous trough models have been touting about.



I don't mean to sound aggressive, but why are you excited about that?
Anybody living in the northern suburbs of Jacksonville towards the Georgia border is aproximately where the center will make landfall.
1559. LargoFl
Quoting xcool:
looking at that run it almost makes it to the northern gulf
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I am hoping that the models continue to trend further inland so those parched parts of Northern Florida and Central South Georgia can get the maximum amount of needed rain.......I am basically Westcasting for the rest of the day...... :)


Unfortunately most of them keep it on the right hand track.
Checking in here in Jax its been nice and sunny so far but breeze is picking up and more clouds rolling in.
1562. LargoFl
Quoting weatherxtreme:
Checking in here in Jax its been nice and sunny so far but breeze is picking up and more clouds rolling in.
ok, thanks for the update
Quoting weatherbro:
Anybody living in the northern suburbs of Jacksonville towards the Georgia border is aproximately where the center will make landfall.


And with that rather large and dry COC at the moment, it will initially be more of a wind event for those folks at landfall until the "eastern" edge of the storm with the bulk of the rain comes onshore later and rotates in.
Quoting Jedkins01:



I don't mean to sound aggressive, but why are you excited about that?


Another breath of fresh air before the humidity takes over for good.
1565. cg2916
Recon so far says 55 mph, 998 mbars so far.
Beryl is becoming fully tropical (in my opinion) right over the gulf stream. Same spot that Andrea did.

Note the large convection filling the eastern half, and note the outflow on said convection.

The big question I have - will it be able to get back off the coast, redevelop and move up the Carolina coast? I'm guessing no. Although, the land over Florida/Georgia is pretty flat.
Quoting weatherbro:


Another breath of fresh air before the humidity takes over for good.



I gotcha lol, I just want to see it rain, and I'm willing to take the oppressive humidity of that, because I know that the tropical muggyness is the life giver as uncomfortable as it might make things feel, lol.
1568. LargoFl
1569. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
wish i knew how to post flash pics,grrrr
Good morning guys. I somehow convinced myself to abandon the plans I had for today and drive to the St. Augustine area to watch Beryl come ashore....

Idk if it's going to be worth the 3.5 hour drive, but I'm going to take a chance in case this is the only TC to affect the state this year. Ya never know.

Do you guys think arriving around 4pm today would be a good time? I estimated that would be when that inner ring of convection approaches the coast. Thoughts?

I'll be checking the blog from time to time today and uploading any interesting footage I may grab.
1566. winter123 9:17 AM EDT on May 27, 201

She looks like she is trying. We all know what a tropical storm looks like and I would like to see all of that displaced convection on her eastern flank wrap around the COC before landfall. Too close to call at the moment I think.
just look at jax radar. heading for st. aug. track will shift south/west, whatever. miss weatherguy03, jedkins seems prettty spot on most of the time. I agree with you about the trof as well. i am in north seminole county.
I remember here in Jax in 2004 think it was Jeanne that came through and that was a little intense. I wonder what Beryl will be like in comparison tonight?
Beryl just needs to wrap a little more convection on the west side and I think we have a fully tropical storm. The convection on the east side is impressive enough for a tropical storm. Anyone have a vertical temperature profile? I don't know who issues those nor how often.
1576. LargoFl
just when you thought you heard it all............Link
Even with all the dry air.The gulf-stream is amazing.
Hurricane force winds in the SE quadrant.
1579. LargoFl
............winds picking up a little on the east coast now
probably less intense. what were you max sustained winds during jeanne? i think we can make a conclusion based on that.
I am thinking, depending on how good she gets a groove on today, that NHC "may" go tropical at the 5:00 PM advisory; I agree with Cat5 below that her eastern flank appears to be there.
Time: 13:12:30Z
Coordinates: 30.65N 78.6167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 973.1 mb (~ 28.74 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 294 meters (~ 965 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.4 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 120° at 60 knots (From the ESE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 20.0°C (~ 68.0°F)
Dew Pt: 19.7°C (~ 67.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 65 knots (~ 74.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
winds are picking up in seminole county.
Recons supports a 65 mph tropical storm at 11AM.
1585. LargoFl
1586. xcool
2012 hurricane season going to be bad -just got bad feeling two storm in may wow this krazy-
I mentioned it yesterday that the gulf stream temps were probably good for a 10-20 knot bump in wind speeds; but then, pursuant to Dr. M and NHC, she could ramp back down closer to landfall when she hits the cooler/shallower shelf waters off the coast.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane force winds in the SE quadrant.


what?
where
Quoting Orlando11:
probably less intense. what were you max sustained winds during jeanne? i think we can make a conclusion based on that.


I believe they were around 45-50 mph if I remember right. we were without power for over three days.
we are on Tropics Chat join us, exp ta13
I note convection is building, but that centre is still massive for a TS. We'll see what happens w/ the transition, but right now I'm not seeing it happen fast enough.
1592. LargoFl
1593. LargoFl
I agree with Baha. STS all the way... max winds in SE quadrant...
Quoting Orlando11:
just look at jax radar. heading for st. aug. track will shift south/west, whatever. miss weatherguy03, jedkins seems prettty spot on most of the time. I agree with you about the trof as well. i am in north seminole county.



Thank you, yeah I get it wrong too sometimes, but I'm not afraid to put my forecast against the pros, not because I think I'm better but because I'm challenging myself, I am going to school for this stuff and I live and breath it.


When I do have a forecast that differs from them, I don't just make one just be different and get attention and take a guess, I base my forecast on analysis. Anyone can guess the opposite of what's official and get it right sometimes but that doesn't mean they have a clue how weather works and why it did actually go the way they said it would, that's just pure chance.


I'm calling it to come into the coast further south and make it further inland, and I'm not afraid to say I think the NHC shouldn't be leaning towards the ECMWF with Beryl because it has handled it poorly since before Beryl was Beryl, and it has frequently tracked the system with a much more right bias throughout the period. Whereas I've been calling for a more left movement because I believe some of the models are overdoing the strength of the trough and its timing on eroding the ridge. The more right models have not been in line with what has been happening at 500 mb or 850 mb so far.


Let it be known though that i highly respect the NHC and, I have been wrong many times before attempting to call for a different track when they ended up doing better. The guys at the NHC and NWS are my meteorology role models, so to speak, I try to use the same techniques they do with my still limited knowledge and of course limited experience. Sometimes I agree with them and sometimes I don't.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Good morning guys. I somehow convinced myself to abandon the plans I had for today and drive to the St. Augustine area to watch Beryl come ashore....

Idk if it's going to be worth the 3.5 hour drive, but I'm going to take a chance in case this is the only TC to affect the state this year. Ya never know.

Do you guys think arriving around 4pm today would be a good time? I estimated that would be when that inner ring of convection approaches the coast. Thoughts?

I'll be checking the blog from time to time today and uploading any interesting footage I may grab.


Hey, Great News, please keep us updated. Tropical Storm Conditions show arrive on the Florida/Geogira coasts at 12-2pm.

So please be safe.
i'm sorry for the posting the Beryl is clearly jogging SW.
Where is CycloneOz located? It actually looks windy with fast moving clouds there.
1595. Jedkins01 9:37 AM EDT on May 27, 201

Nice thoughtful post. How are you doing with the applied math courses with the big emphasis on complicated algorythms?...... :)
...BERYL HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM...
8:00 AM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.3°N 78.9°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: WSW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb

clouds are coming in fast now across the sky here in Jax from what appear to be from the northeast.
Quoting LargoFl:
can you imagine, 15 inches of rain in 3 days? if you live near a stream etc, pay attention to your local warnings
We saw 28 inches of rain in 4 days here in lkae mary Fl for fay............ every pond was overflowing into parking lots even had cars abandoned in a few up to the windows. Alot of road were closed and alot of people norht of me were flooded out of there homes without flood insurance
Morning All.

50/50 on making the transition before landfall, it will be too close to call imo.

I agree with the shift southward, NHC is now to the right of all the guidance.

1604. xcool
1908 1887
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recons supports a 65 mph tropical storm at 11AM.
broad system
Good morning!

Beryl is doing much better convection-wise. Must be taking advantage of her more favorable environment.
beryl might go to 70mph
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Good morning guys. I somehow convinced myself to abandon the plans I had for today and drive to the St. Augustine area to watch Beryl come ashore....

Idk if it's going to be worth the 3.5 hour drive, but I'm going to take a chance in case this is the only TC to affect the state this year. Ya never know.

Do you guys think arriving around 4pm today would be a good time? I estimated that would be when that inner ring of convection approaches the coast. Thoughts?

I'll be checking the blog from time to time today and uploading any interesting footage I may grab.



St. Augustine will probably be the place to be, as far as timing goes, that is the one thing I'm not very good it, its hard to say regarding that time. If I were you I would get there earlier than that to be safe. You want to drive that far only to get there too late. Plus you get to watch everything progress as it comes in if you get there earlier..
1609. Gorty
What does the cross section look like? I dont know how to read them.
1610. OneDrop
Quoting weatherbro:


Oh I know...I'm just kinda exited we're gonna see another late season front from this anomalous trough models have been touting about.
I'm a charter captain and maintain a weather log to help me predict how the fishing might be year in year out and I had told my neighbor a month ago that based on the pattern I'm seeing, we will possibly get a late May or early June "cool" front which will just lower our humidity. I'm not a meteorologist by any means, just been logging weather for 13 years into a journal and I could see this type of pattern forming a month ago.
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for SubtropicalStormBeryl for 27May12pmGMT:
30.8n78.1w has been re-evaluated&altered
30.6n78.0w, 30.3n78.9w are now the most recent positions
Its vector had changed from WSWest at ~11.8mph(19km/h) to WSWest at ~9.6mph(15.5km/h)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at ~45knots(52mph)83km/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 998millibars

For those who like to visually track STS.Beryl's path...
FPR is FortPierce . COI is MerritIsland . KXFL is FlaglerBeach . FD48 is PonteVedraBeach

Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where Invest94L became SubTropicalStormBeryl
WSWesternmost dot on the longest line-segment was STS.Beryl's most recent position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection
through STS.Beryl's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The FPR dumbbell was the endpoint of the 26May6pmGMT & 27May12amGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport
The FD48*dumbbell was the endpoint* of the 26May6amGMT* straightline projection*
connected to its closest airport.
On 27May12pmGMT, STS.Beryl was headed toward passing over FlaglerBeach,Florida in ~13hours from now

Copy&paste eyw, fpr-27.39n80.26w, fpr-27.426n80.274w, coi-28.3779n80.6w, kxfl, fd48-30.20n81.366w, gge-33.292n79.172w, 32.3n74.9w-32.4n75.3w, 32.4n75.3w-31.9n76.0w, 31.9n76.0w-31.6n76.3w, 31.6n76.3w-31.0n76.9w, 31.0n76.9w-30.6n78.0w, 30.6n78.0w-30.3n78.9w, 30.6n78.0w-29.515n81.145w into the GreatCircleMapper for more*information.
The previous mapping for comparison.

* 30.8n78.1w was re-evaluated&altered to 30.6n78.0w. So an incorrect vector(direction&speed) was calculated for 26May6amGMT from using the original incorrect position.
Through recalculation using the correct position, the vector has been corrected to reflect that change.
The original incorrect vector produced an incorrect straightline projection leading to an incorrect endpoint at the FD48 dumbbell
Nonetheless I am reposting that incorrect dumbbell to maintain historicity with the previous map.
Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning!

Beryl is doing much better convection-wise. Must be taking advantage of her more favorable environment.
Agreed. The SW side is starting to build now... compare this most recent imagery with yesterday's per Doc's blog pic to get a true sense of the difference.

1613. LargoFl
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
We saw 28 inches of rain in 4 days here in lkae mary Fl for fay............ every pond was overflowing into parking lots even had cars abandoned in a few up to the windows. Alot of road were closed and alot of people norht of me were flooded out of there homes without flood insurance
gee that must have been terrible, i hope it doesnt get that bad this time, but you never know if this thing stalls out inland huh
Gonna take a break and make breakfast for the kids. Sitting here North of Tallahassee with beautiful sunny cloudless morning, on a wooded lot, and a little "breeze" just blew the through the leaves. An approaching low, a few hundred miles away, can do that.

See Yall Later this afternoon.
ULL is still there however, becoming very diffuse.

Quoting weatherbro:
Here is an example of a subtropical storm attaining hurricane strength(80MPH) without fully acquiring tropical characteristics...

Subtropical Storm One(September 14th-September 23ed, 1968)



Here's another example in 1979...

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

50/50 on making the transition before landfall, it will be too close to call imo.

I agree with the shift southward, NHC is now to the right of all the guidance.




Guidance has shifted towards the south into the St. Augustine area as I expected the new runs would. The NHC will be forced to scrap the ECMWF here and adjust further south and west.


The ECMWF might have performed better for some time with previous systems but it hasn't done very well with Beryl.
1619. icmoore
Quoting weatherxtreme:


I believe they were around 45-50 mph if I remember right. we were without power for over three days.


It was Frances for us when we lived in Melrose near Gainesville. We lost power as soon as it started coming inland that night and were without for 6 nights. A lot of trees went down which is why we lost our power. It took the electric company a while to get everybody back up.
000
URNT12 KNHC 271344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/13:27:10Z
B. 30 deg 08 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1410 m
D. 50 kt
E. 054 deg 40 nm
F. 120 deg 65 kt
G. 054 deg 47 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 15 C / 1418 m
J. 17 C / 1524 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF308 0202A BERYL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 65 KT NE QUAD 13:12:30Z
;
Can someone give me a link to the Jacksonville Beach Cam?
1622. OneDrop
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
We saw 28 inches of rain in 4 days here in lkae mary Fl for fay............ every pond was overflowing into parking lots even had cars abandoned in a few up to the windows. Alot of road were closed and alot of people norht of me were flooded out of there homes without flood insurance
Nice Flattie!!!! Flounda sandwiches anyone?
I Heard Recon found 50-55kt winds? And a 61kt report?
Quoting Ameister12:
Can someone give me a link to the Jacksonville Beach Cam?


http://www.jaxpiercam.com/


Quoting Ameister12:
Can someone give me a link to the Jacksonville Beach Cam?

Link
1626. Gorty
Yeah I was away for a couple hours, came home, refreshed my IR and I was shocked at what I saw, a lot better convection.
We have a 60 mph tropical storm on our hands at the very least. Could even go as far as to say Beryl is up to 65 mph.
Looks like Beryl has become stronger than forecast by the NHC, just as some of us were preaching yesterday.
1629. ryang
.
1630. Gorty
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We have a 60 mph tropical storm on our hands at the very least. Could even go as far as to say Beryl is up to 65 mph.


So it is fully tropical now?
come to tropics chat.
Several of us are there
1632. OneDrop
Update from Ormond by the Sea. Was just on the beach checking the waves and the wind is blowing WNW at 15-20 and gusting higher. Waves are easily chest to head high. I saw a guy try and paddle out and he made it out after drifting 3/4 a mile down the beach and then he was so far on the outside I couldn't distinguish him from the pelicans floating in the water. I lost sight of him 5 minutes later, hope he was okay. Any ways, gray cloudy skies, breezy and it kind of feels like early October out.
1633. hydrus
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 27 2012
Seeing some collateral detritus clouds off to Beryl's SE...



If Beryl's convection continues to build, points as far south as Palm Beach Co. and Grand Bahama / Abaco may get some rainshowers.
1635. Gorty
Does the cross section show it tropical or still sub-tropical?
1636. LargoFl
Quoting OneDrop:
Update from Ormond by the Sea. Was just on the beach checking the waves and the wind is blowing WNW at 15-20 and gusting higher. Waves are easily chest to head high. I saw a guy try and paddle out and he made it out after drifting 3/4 a mile down the beach and then he was so far on the outside I couldn't distinguish him from the pelicans floating in the water. I lost sight of him 5 minutes later, hope he was okay. Any ways, gray cloudy skies, breezy and it kind of feels like early October out.
....some people just dont listen to the warnings
hydrus, look at the gfs and cmc trough and read the end of the spc D4-8 convec outlook.
Wonder where that trough will set up
Quoting OneDrop:
Update from Ormond by the Sea. Was just on the beach checking the waves and the wind is blowing WNW at 15-20 and gusting higher. Waves are easily chest to head high. I saw a guy try and paddle out and he made it out after drifting 3/4 a mile down the beach and then he was so far on the outside I couldn't distinguish him from the pelicans floating in the water. I lost sight of him 5 minutes later, hope he was okay. Any ways, gray cloudy skies, breezy and it kind of feels like early October out.


Thanks for the Update, Keep us updated.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:

Quoting Articuno:



Link


http://www.jaxpiercam.com/

Thanks!
1640. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We have a 60 mph tropical storm on our hands at the very least. Could even go as far as to say Beryl is up to 65 mph.
this is going to fool alot of people on the east coast when this finally comes in
1641. Gorty
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
hydrus, look at the gfs and cmc trough and read the end of the spc D4-8 convec outlook.
Wonder where that trough will set up


If the trof sets up to my west, does that favor thunderstorms for me since I will be in the warm air and it will be clashing with the cooler air from the trof?
1642. LargoFl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


http://www.jaxpiercam.com/
...beach cam is down for maint.
winds really starting to pick up and grey clouds really starting to roll into Jax now.
Quoting Gorty:


If the trof sets up to my west, does that favor thunderstorms for me since I will be in the warm air and it will be clashing with the cooler air from the trof?


yes, if it is comes into you from the west, you would see more storms
Quoting LargoFl:
...beach cam is down for maint.

It's just restarting. It's back on right now.
Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning!

Beryl is doing much better convection-wise. Must be taking advantage of her more favorable environment.


Does she have to worry about sucking in dry continental air over the next 12 hours?
Will Palm Beach get rain from Beryl??
1648. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:



Guidance has shifted towards the south into the St. Augustine area as I expected the new runs would. The NHC will be forced to scrap the ECMWF here and adjust further south and west.


The ECMWF might have performed better for some time with previous systems but it hasn't done very well with Beryl.
..Jed if beryl comes in further south then predicted..what effects would it have then on OUR weather here?
btw NE corner

65 knots (~ 74.8 mph)
Crown Weather



A quick analysis of the two recon fixes on Beryl so far this morning using GREarth indicate that the storm is moving slightly south of due west while radar/satellite loops show more of a due west track. If we extrapolate out the difference of the two recon fixes, it would put Beryl onshore near Palm Coast at about 5:30 pm this afternoon. I do still think that Beryl will turn more westward and come ashore further north than Palm Coast and I'd put a range of possibilities from Palm Coast to St. Augustine to Jacksonville Beach between 5 and 7 pm today.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


Does she have to worry about sucking in dry continental air over the next 12 hours?

I doubt it.
1652. hydrus
Pattern change coming..
Quoting OneDrop:
Update from Ormond by the Sea. Was just on the beach checking the waves and the wind is blowing WNW at 15-20 and gusting higher. Waves are easily chest to head high. I saw a guy try and paddle out and he made it out after drifting 3/4 a mile down the beach and then he was so far on the outside I couldn't distinguish him from the pelicans floating in the water. I lost sight of him 5 minutes later, hope he was okay. Any ways, gray cloudy skies, breezy and it kind of feels like early October out.


Ormand by the Sea is one of my favorite places
1654. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Will Palm Beach get rain from Beryl??
Prolly a slight chance. Depends on how much the convection builds over the next 12 hrs.
1656. Gorty
Fully TS at 11 am?
Quoting weatherxtreme:
winds really starting to pick up and grey clouds really starting to roll into Jax now.


Quoting Gorty:
Fully TS at 11 am?

It'll probably stay subtropical.
1659. LargoFl
After surf video from Indialantic, Fl.

Wind is picking up from the wnw around 10-15 mph now. Great day, rip current isn't too bad but a noticeable drift to the south due to the nature of the swell.

Link


https://sites.google.com/site/centralfloridavideo surfreport/
Buoy 41012 a little SE of the centre.

Link
Quoting weatherbro:


Here's another example in 1979...



According to wikipedia: "The storm briefly reached hurricane strength (though it was not a hurricane at the time because it was not tropical) before weakening."

And i guess if one were to get technical, NOAA does use the phrasing of a "tropical cyclone" in their hurricane definition. But, if a storm has 75 mph winds but isn't fully tropical, then what is the proper classification if not a hurricane? I would think that so long as it is tropical enough to be named then it it should be able to be classified as a hurricane...
1663. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
southeast winds have begun on the gulf side so any moisture in the gulf will start to get pulled into florida, adding to the rainfall amounts?
Nice, finally in rapid scan mode.

Also think that recon was a little far S on that last 999 fix. Looks to me from radar and sat that the center is on the N side of the dry slot. Pretty sure she is moving almost due W at this point, with maybe a hair of S in it.
1666. yqt1001
Quoting StormJunkie:
Nice, finally in rapid scan mode.

Also think that recon was a little far S on that last 999 fix. Looks to me from radar and sat that the center is on the N side of the dry slot. Pretty sure she is moving almost due W at this point, with maybe a hair of S in it.
Just noticed the rapid scan myself. Cloud tops are cooling, but still not that high as yet. And centre is tightening, but ever so slowly....

1668. LargoFl
1669. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
hydrus, look at the gfs and cmc trough and read the end of the spc D4-8 convec outlook.
Wonder where that trough will set up
I will get back with you, so many things to look at.
1670. LargoFl
1671. Patrap
Morning Baha, yeah she is trying to pull her act together, but as you said...Having a hard, hard time getting growth on those cloud tops. So use to seeing some yellows and oranges in there that this green just makes it look sloppy to me...lol
1673. Patrap
Jacksonville
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

1674. Patrap
1675. Patrap
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning Baha, yeah she is trying to pull her act together, but as you said...Having a hard, hard time getting growth on those cloud tops. So use to seeing some yellows and oranges in there that this green just makes it look sloppy to me...lol
lol... 94L had some more colour passing by Grand Bahama.... actually caused some severe local flooding - I heard one area ended up under 9 feet of water - and a tornado took off 3 roofs in Abaco...

Unless some quick tightening occurs, I'm not sure we'll see that kind of buildup. Not that I think anyone in the path is complaining about that... lol

1677. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
Jacksonville
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI



You were right man, you were right. Last night you said Beryl was going to show her cards this morning, and you were right.

Props man.
Has anyone ever thought about what it would be like if a storm was named Hunter?

...HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE HURRICANE HUNTER...
1680. LargoFl
..stormtracker, have your raincoat handy
1683. yqt1001
Quoting wxgeek723:
Has anyone ever thought about what it would be like if a storm was named Hunter?

...HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE HURRICANE HUNTER...


Eventually it is probable, they will run out of decent names. And it's likely that Hunter would go down in flames like every other storm and require a HH flight into it. Though the H name isn't very frequently retired unlike I.
Looks like the convection is starting to pop this morning. Probably will be strengthening right up until landfall.

Any additional data about that 65kt reading?
I'm willing to call this a tropical system now, it still has traits of an STS...but the convection has deepened and rotated enough to be tropical imo.
1686. K8eCane
Quoting WxGeekVA:



I dont know about everyone else but i love your pics. I got a good chuckle out of this one
1687. LargoFl
Quoting WxGeekVA:
LOL we need a laugh now
1688. Gorty
Quoting MrstormX:
I'm willing to call this a tropical system now, it still has traits of an STS...but the convection has deepened and rotated enough to be tropical imo.


I agree.
1689. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 14:04Z
Date: May 27, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 32


14:05:30Z 29.017N 80.917W 780.9 mb
(~ 23.06 inHg) 2,231 meters
(~ 7,320 feet) 1013.8 mb
(~ 29.94 inHg) - From 336 at 28 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 32.2 mph) 10.5C
(~ 50.9F) 8.C
(~ 46.9F) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 13:56:00Z (first observation), the observation was 30 miles (49 km) to the ESE (116) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
At 14:05:30Z (last observation), the observation was 15 miles (24 km) to the SSE (151) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
1690. LargoFl
Useful page for Florida satellite images;

Florida Satellite
Here comes big bad Beryl. >:D

I'm hoping she's more of a relief than an issue for Florida.
Bright and sunny in Ocala, little breezy, few puffy clouds moving pretty quickly towards the south east.
Beryl is looking more and more improved on radar and satellite by the hour, its beginning to gain some deeper convection near the center now.


Latest vortex message supports a 60mph Tropical storm with a 999mb pressure. Also, it is possible based off recon that Beryl will be upgraded to a fully tropical cyclone.
1696. LargoFl
Quoting Ameister12:
Here comes big bad Beryl. >:D


It is growing stronger, should be 60mph at 11am
Quoting Jedkins01:
Beryl is looking more and more improved on radar and satellite by the hour, its beginning to gain some deeper convection near the center now.




70mph Tropical Storm at landfall a good bet?
Quoting Jedkins01:
Beryl is looking more and more improved on radar and satellite by the hour, its beginning to gain some deeper convection near the center now.



That's because it is passing over 28C waters right now.
Quoting LargoFl:
just when you thought you heard it all............Link
lmao
Quoting WxGeekVA:



LOL
1702. LargoFl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


70mph Tropical Storm at landfall a good bet?
it sure looks that way
1704. LargoFl
1705. Gorty
I am not going to look at this blog until 11:00 am or slightly after cause I want it to surprise me if she is fully TS or still STS. And I wanna look at it myself.
1706. 10Speed
Some 'small' stuff starting to pop up just north of Sebring. It's a part of the outer circular flow that helped produce the thunderstorms over St. Pete earlier. We had a lot of reflection here off the Ruskin radar just after sunrise. Usually when we see that we get some sort of precip that same day. That doesn't always hold true but the vast majority of the time it happens.
Mostly off topic, but imagine this hurricane season....

Axeman
Busboy
Contractor
Dancer
Entymologist
Fisherman
Grenadier
Hunter
Iceman
Juggler
Kamikaze
Lance
Manicurist
Oboeist
Pianist
Rainman
Smith
Taxidermist
Vintner
Weatherman
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's because it is passing over 28C waters right now.

that is correct. thats why her convection picked up and she is transition to tropical over the warm waters of the gulf stream. a 60mph storm at landfall seems likely but this one will bring heavy winds aswell as beneficial rain.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


70mph Tropical Storm at landfall a good bet?


Potentially, just looking at the visible it looks like its transitioning into the high level TS stage. Deeper convection is quickly beginning to consolidate around the center. Beryl is definitely getting better organized and adding more moisture to its environment. PWAT analysis shows finally higher PWAT you would expect from a fully tropical system (2.2 to 2.4 inches near the center)
1710. Grothar
The season's a bust.



OK, so I still don't know how to post pictures. Here's a link to a shot 15 minutes ago of jax beach. Note the endloader tooling down the beach. He's digging trenches for drainage. Lot of people out, lots of surfers doing the "surfin' in a hurricane" bit.

http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleima ge.html?mode=singleimage&orig_handle=jaxbeachbadge r&orig_number=&handle=jaxbeachbadger&number=2&albu m_id=1#slideanchor
1712. Patrap
If in the Impact area, time now to get those Preps done and be aware of whats coming.

Every storm is different, and this one is going to come in on the Up-tick seems.

Have a NOAA Alert Radio handy for info on the Tornadoes, and Squally weather.

Remind those who are elderly, and those who are shut in's, and help them as well.

Be Pro-active, to prevent being re-active during the storm.

Take care of one another.
Looks like Beryl took a more westerly job but has quickly resumed WSW movement, I was getting concerned for a bit my forecast might have been in jeopardy :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Mostly off topic, but imagine this hurricane season....

Axeman
Busboy
Contractor
Dancer
Entymologist
Fisherman
Grenadier
Hunter
Iceman
Juggler
Kamikaze
Lance
Manicurist
Oboeist
Pianist
Rainman
Smith
Taxidermist
Vintner
Weatherman


LOL!
Beryl looks pretty....
Quoting Jedkins01:


Potentially, just looking at the visible it looks like its transitioning into the high level TS stage. Deeper convection is quickly beginning to consolidate around the center. Beryl is definitely getting better organized and adding more moisture to its environment. PWAT analysis shows finally higher PWAT you would expect from a fully tropical system (2.2 to 2.4 inches near the center)


Im guessing 60mph 998mb at 11am
1717. Seastep
Quoting Grothar:
The season's a bust.




LOL
1718. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
If in the Impact area, time now to get those Preps done and be aware of whats coming.

Every storm is different, and this one is going to come in on the Up-tick seems.

Have a NOAA Alert Radio handy for info on the Tornadoes, and Squally weather.

Remind those who are elderly, and those who are shut in's, and help them as well.

Be Pro-active, to prevent being re-active during the storm.

Take care of one another.
ditto, folks plse listen to him and your local warnings
Quoting washingtonian115:
Beryl looks pretty....


Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker

B.
Good morning everyone! Beryl appears to be a lot better organized this morning - it should be interesting to see what the Hurricane Hunters find!
Quoting Unfriendly:
Looks like the convection is starting to pop this morning. Probably will be strengthening right up until landfall.

Any additional data about that 65kt reading?


You have to consider the COC in relative location to the Gulf Stream is partially responsible for this mornings added convection.

But before landfall, there will be an interaction with considerably cooler shelf waters....... which in the very least will make further strengthening unlikely, I even wouldn't be surprised to see a little fizzle!
1724. LargoFl
1725. Grothar
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker


G) 55 mph
1727. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:
In in the Impact area, time now to get those Preps done and be aware of whats coming.

Every storm is different, and this one is going to come in on the Up-tick seems.

Have a NOAA Alert Radio handy for info on the Tornadoes, and Squally weather.

Remind those who are elderly, and those who are shut in's, and help them as well.

Be Pro-active, to prevent being re-active during the storm.

Take care of one another.


Pat thank you as usual . you are a kind man. Dont forget to post Hurricane Hercules.
I cannot believe the comments i made aboutthis storm early this am. I will have to eat those words...gulp...
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker


B
What's up thel! Good to see ya. No fancy graphic with colory lines to depict the cooler shelf waters? :)
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker
b and possibly tropical
Quoting Grothar:


Very welcome rain for Northern Florida...
1732. Grothar
Recon on it's way out.
1736. LargoFl
Quoting StormJunkie:
What's up thel! Good to see ya. No fancy graphic with colory lines to depict the cooler shelf waters? :)


Not used to drawing squiggly lines until August! LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon on it's way out.


Another Flight? Already?
I wonder is Beryl will take advantage of the dry slot to try to create an eye...
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker

C
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Another Flight? Already?


I mean recon is on it's way out away from Beryl.
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Quoting LargoFl:
gee that must have been terrible, i hope it doesnt get that bad this time, but you never know if this thing stalls out inland huh
yeah fay was nuts........ stalll off volusia county for 30 plus hours
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker




C
1745. Grothar
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I mean recon is on it's way out away from Beryl.


Oh, My Bad. Should get the 11am Advisory in shortly.
Quoting wxgeek723:
Has anyone ever thought about what it would be like if a storm was named Hunter?

...HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE HURRICANE HUNTER...

Lol. Good one "HURRICANE HUNTER STALLS OUT OVER JAMAICA..." hmmm....
000
WTNT42 KNHC 270831
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS
IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE
CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/09...AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
TURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE
WESTWARD TURN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THEN SLOW DOWN
AFTER LANDFALL AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD BERYL
WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE GFS
AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SITUATED FARTHEST EAST. AT 36
AND 48 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...BUT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY BERYL WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...LYING
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT
DAYS 4 AND 5.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


According to wikipedia: "The storm briefly reached hurricane strength (though it was not a hurricane at the time because it was not tropical) before weakening."

And i guess if one were to get technical, NOAA does use the phrasing of a "tropical cyclone" in their hurricane definition. But, if a storm has 75 mph winds but isn't fully tropical, then what is the proper classification if not a hurricane? I would think that so long as it is tropical enough to be named then it it should be able to be classified as a hurricane...


A Nuetercane perhaps lol
1750. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



Keep your little finger off of that F8 button and give somebody else a chance!!!!! :P
1751. divdog
60 mph 998 pressure @11:00am advisory
1752. Patrap
Again, do NOT take the Storm Lightly...

Remember how K came in Aug 05 in Fla on the up-tick.





000
WTNT42 KNHC 271449
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER
OF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT
LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL RECENTLY MEASURED PEAK 1000 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 49 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.
BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE
CYCLONE REEMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 2-3 DAYS. BERYL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.

THE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MAXIMUM ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/09. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL
MOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE
SHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
TAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES
TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
ECMWF. AFTER THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF BERYL...BUT DIFFER ON THE
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECWMF AT 72 H AND BEYOND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 30.1N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 30.2N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL
24H 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0000Z 30.8N 82.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1200Z 31.4N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1200Z 37.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 41.0N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
Still Subtropical.
1756. Grothar
Quoting WxGeekVA:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 270831
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS
IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE
CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/09...AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
TURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE
WESTWARD TURN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THEN SLOW DOWN
AFTER LANDFALL AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD BERYL
WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE GFS
AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SITUATED FARTHEST EAST. AT 36
AND 48 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...BUT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY BERYL WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...LYING
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT
DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 30.5N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 30.4N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 30.5N 81.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1800Z 30.8N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0600Z 31.2N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 33.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 01/0600Z 40.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



That is the 5:00 am advisory. We need something new!!!
1757. yqt1001
Quoting BahaHurican:
Mostly off topic, but imagine this hurricane season....

Axeman
Busboy
Contractor
Dancer
Entymologist
Fisherman
Grenadier
Hunter
Iceman
Juggler
Kamikaze
Lance
Manicurist
Oboeist
Pianist
Rainman
Smith
Taxidermist
Vintner
Weatherman


Would be better if all the names were doom...

Apocalypse
Bombardment
Cavalry
Death
End
Frigate
Grenadier
Hunter
Infantry
J
Kamikaze
Lancer
Missile
O
Pirate
Raid
Soldier
Tank
Viking
W

That's all I can manage in 5 minutes. :P
1758. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
If in the Impact area, time now to get those Preps done and be aware of whats coming.

Every storm is different, and this one is going to come in on the Up-tick seems.

Have a NOAA Alert Radio handy for info on the Tornadoes, and Squally weather.

Remind those who are elderly, and those who are shut in's, and help them as well.

Be Pro-active, to prevent being re-active during the storm.

Take care of one another.


We've pulled in the patio furniture and potted plants. We're getting decent winds and rain bands now. Looks like we're going to be just on the north side of the eye at landfall, so hope it doesn't get any worse.
Starting to get the first bit of rain from Beryl in Hilton Head, SC.
Quoting thelmores:


Not used to drawing squiggly lines until August! LOL


:) I hear ya, hopefully you won't get too many opportunities to draw those squiggly lines this year.
1762. Grothar
WTNT42 KNHC 271449
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER
OF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT
LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL RECENTLY MEASURED PEAK 1000 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 49 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.
BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE
CYCLONE REEMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 2-3 DAYS. BERYL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.

THE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MAXIMUM ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/09. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL
MOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE
SHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
TAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES
TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
ECMWF. AFTER THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF BERYL...BUT DIFFER ON THE
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECWMF AT 72 H AND BEYOND.

Quoting Grothar:



That is the 5:00 am advisory. We need something new!!!


Fixed, sorry!
1764. Patrap
Jacksonville
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI


Remember if any of y'all are coming down to the jax beaches to watch Beryl, they close the bridges with sustained winds of 40mph (not all that much). And there ain't no way off the barrier island from Mayport all the way down to St Augustine except for those 6 bridges. If you do get stuck, let me know and we'll have a hurricane party!!!

According to Jax Pier cam (which I can see from my balcony), the winds are currently out of the north at 11 mph.
FYI Beryl is transitioning into tropical
Can Beryl make it to 65/70 mph before landfall? It's a race against time!

1768. ncstorm
IT APPEARS THAT BERYL
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


Beryl is doing what she wants to do..Stay safe and heed your warnings!
1769. Gorty
Ah ok, so she is almost tropical. Doesnt have too much more time though to become fully TS before landfall.
some strong storms around this broad system now. they are in for a good soaking
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can Beryl make it to 65/70 mph before landfall? It's a race against time!



I think so.
Quoting jaxbeachbadger:
Remember if any of y'all are coming down to the jax beaches to watch Beryl, they close the bridges with sustained winds of 40mph (not all that much). And there ain't no way off the barrier island from Mayport all the way down to St Augustine except for those 6 bridges. If you do get stuck, let me know and we'll have a hurricane party!!!

According to Jax Pier cam (which I can see from my balcony), the winds are currently out of the north at 11 mph.


Keep us updated. And stay safe. Tropical Storm Winds will arrive shortly at your location.
There is a slight on & off breeze coming out of the West in Gainesville, FL. It is sunny with only a few of those "cotton ball" clouds in the sky. It is nice to see Beryl moisten up as we need the rain badly in North Florida. We should see some of those rain bands come through here by late afternoon.
1774. LargoFl
just went outside, alot of high up moisture clouds rolling in from the gulf..all headed eastward,going to be a big rainmaker over there later on
Quoting BahaHurican:
Mostly off topic, but imagine this hurricane season....

Axeman
Busboy
Contractor
Dancer
Entymologist
Fisherman
Grenadier
Hunter
Iceman
Juggler
Kamikaze
Lance
Manicurist
Oboeist
Pianist
Rainman
Smith
Taxidermist
Vintner
Weatherman


The New York Weather service in Buffalo is like that, because they actually name their lake effect snowstorms after random topics.

i.e.
2010-2011 lake effect storms were named after "Fish"
2009-2010: Flowers
2008-2009: Snakes
2007-2008: Dogs
2006-2007: insects
ect...

I think this year was types of cows, so the names were: Ayrshire, Beefalo, Canadienne, Dutch Belted, Evolene, ect..

Lake Effect Storm Copernicus from 2002 when the list was after "Famous Scientists"



http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakepage.php
1777. LargoFl
It appears Berle is heading due west now.
1780. Patrap
14:45 UTC Viz

1781. ncstorm
I believe Florida will be looking at a hurricane..low cat 1 of course but the center of beryl hasnt even made it to the gulf stream yet which usually intensifies tropical cyclones

Would be better if all the names were doom...

Apocalypse
Bombardment
Cavalry
Death
End
Frigate
Grenadier
Hunter
Infantry
J
Kamikaze
Lancer
Missile
O
Pirate
Raid
Soldier
Tank
Viking
W

the o could be O"SH.T!!!!!!!!!!
1784. LargoFl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
notice now at the 11am..the models bring it almost all the way across florida
1785. Grothar
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Fixed, sorry!


It's OK, Geek. We all have these days. This morning I put my wife out and made breakfast for my dog.
Quoting ncstorm:
I believe Florida will be looking at a hurricane..low cat 1 of course but the center of beryl hasnt even made it to the gulf stream yet which usually intensifies tropical cyclones



it already is in the gulf stream, it is nearing the cooler waters, if it was further south, it would have a better chance of intensifying because the cool shelf is not as large
1787. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


It's OK, Geek. We all have these days. This morning I put my wife out and made breakfast for my dog.


The good thing about dogs is that unlike a wife, if you lock the dog and Wife accidently in the Garage, when you find them later, least the dog will give ya a big Kiss.
1788. Patrap
14:45 UTC

RBTOP Image

come to Tropics Chat, we are going to do trivia again.

And talk about Beryl
I am fairly pleased with my intensity forecast on Beryl I issued at 1:21 AM on May 26. As shown in Figure 2 of that post...I was predicting a peak of 65 mph winds and a tropical storm....then a weakening to 60 mph winds just before landfall (due to cool water shelf W of Gulf stream). I predicted transition to tropical on Sunday (i.e. today). She is strengthening a bit earlier today than I thought...I was thinking she would strengthen to 60 mph by 11 PM tonight instead of 11 AM this morning. If Beryl's trends continue...my general intensity forecast could verify.

Trackwise though...I was still off...

I will be putting another update out around 1:00 PM this afternoon with an updated Beryl forecast included....
Quoting Patrap:


The good thing about dogs is that unlike a wife, if you lock the dog and Wife accidently in the Garage, when you find them later, least the dog will give ya a big Kiss.


LOL!

Link
Beryl is looking her best right now.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I am fairly pleased with my intensity forecast on Beryl I issued at 1:21 AM on May 26. As shown in Figure 2 of that post...I was predicting a peak of 65 mph winds and a tropical storm....then a weakening to 60 mph winds just before landfall (due to cool water shelf W of Gulf stream). I predicted transition to tropical on Sunday (i.e. today). She is strengthening a bit earlier today than I thought...I was thinking she would strengthen to 60 mph by 11 PM tonight instead of 11 AM this morning. If Beryl's trends continue...my general intensity forecast could verify.

Trackwise though...I was still off...

I will be putting another update out around 1:00 PM this afternoon with an updated Beryl forecast included....


I still like my track forecast created upon naming:

1794. LargoFl
**THE LATEST**
(click to enlarge)
1797. Patrap
On satellite, Beryl almost looks like she wants to take a bite out of the FL coast.
Quoting weatherbro:
It appears Berle is heading due west now.

It did a Beryl Roll.
Quoting Patrap:
If in the Impact area, time now to get those Preps done and be aware of whats coming.

Every storm is different, and this one is going to come in on the Up-tick seems.

Have a NOAA Alert Radio handy for info on the Tornadoes, and Squally weather.

Remind those who are elderly, and those who are shut in's, and help them as well.

Be Pro-active, to prevent being re-active during the storm.

Take care of one another.


Good advice, Pat. Wish that people would heed it more often. Called back to my friends and no one is really taking it very seriously. No preps, nothing. They are about an hour north of Jax and live on the river. Ugh.
Quoting ncstorm:
I believe Florida will be looking at a hurricane..low cat 1 of course but the center of beryl hasnt even made it to the gulf stream yet which usually intensifies tropical cyclones



It can't become a hurricane if it is subtropical, and your coordinates must be off because it is in the warmest waters now, and moving directly towards the cooler shelf.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Wife is a member of the Jax Beach auxiliary police--she just got put on call. Damn, she won't be much fun at the Hurricane party 'cause she can't have anything to drink!

I just sent a message to the Jax Pier Cam folks telling them that they should go clean their lens on the most important day in their history.

1805. Jax82
I live a mile from the ocean in jax beach, should be an interesting night. Im not getting back into town later, so hopefully the bridges will be open, it all depends if we get the north side of the storm or not as that will decide who gets the strongest winds and surge.
where is chat?
JAX PIER Webcam: Link
**THE LATEST**
(click to enlarge)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I still like my track forecast created upon naming:



I hope yours verifies. We need the rain in central GA to relieve our D4 drought. The NHC track right now doesn't quite do us justice.
1810. Patrap
94.7F at 11:44 am NOLA.

Phew-eeee
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker
D
I feel like Beryl is trying to close off an eyewall. If it had a few more days over water, I think we would see a hurricane. In any case, strengthening just before landfall is not good. This will be a HUGE rainmaker now, when yesterday it was nearly a naked swirl.
.