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Tropical Storm Alberto forms off the South Carolina coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2012

The first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Tropical Storm Alberto formed this afternoon off the coast of South Carolina--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Alberto has the potential to hit North Carolina as early as Monday, but since the storm is so small, it would only affect a small area of the coast with high winds and heavy rain. Upper level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over Alberto, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, slowing development. The dry air impinging on Alberto from the southwest can be seen in water vapor satellite loops. Heavy rain showers from Alberto are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Alberto taken at 1:50 pm EDT Saturday May 19, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Alberto
Rain showers from Alberto are likely to move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. The storm is too small to cause major flooding problems, particularly since the coast is under moderate to severe drought. Alberto's rains will not be plentiful enough to cause significant drought relief, except perhaps over a small region near the coast, where (and if) the storm makes landfall. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Since the storm is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Steering currents are weak, and Alberto will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. The moderate wind shear and dry air are likely to keep Alberto below hurricane strength. NHC is giving Alberto a 5 - 10% chance of reaching hurricane strength before dissipating on Thursday as it scoots northeast out to sea.


Figure 2. Late afternoon radar image of Alberto from the Wilmington radar.

Alberto in historical context
Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalStormAlberto
MaximumSustainedWinds have been re-evaluated&altered
for 32.9n77.1w from ~35knots(40mph)65k/h to ~35knots(40mph)65k/h and
for 32.5n77.3w from ~35knots(40mph)65k/h to ~40knots(46mph)74k/h
MaxSusWinds, MinimumPressure and TropicalCycloneStatus have been re-evaluated&altered
for 32.3n77.6w from ~40knots(46mph)74k/h 1007millibars (closed)Low
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .to ~45knots(52mph)83k/h 1000millibars TropicalStorm

On 20May12amGMT, TSAlberto's ATCF position was 32.2n78.0w
It's vector has changed from SW at ~3.2mph(6k/h) to WSW at ~4mph(6.5k/h)
Its MaxSusWinds have increased from ~45knots(52mph)83k/h to ~50knots(58mph)93k/h
And its minimum pressure has decreased from 1000millibars to 995millibars
For those who like to visually track TSAlberto's path...
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida , SSI is St.SimonsIsland,Georgia, 08GA is Darien,Georgia

The northeasternmost unconnected dot amongst was TSAlberto's initial position as 93L
The easternmost dot on the short line-segment is where the NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The westernmost dot on the short line-segment was its most recent ATCF position

The long line-segment is a straightline projection through its 2 most recent positions to the coastline
TSAlberto was headed toward passing over WolfIsland near Darien,Georgia in ~1day22hours

Copy&paste jax, ssi, 08ga, svn, hhh, bft, kjzi, gge, 33.4n76.4w, 33.3n76.6w, 33.1n76.8w, 32.9n77.1w, 32.5n77.3w, 32.3n77.6w-32.2n78.0w, 32.3n77.6w-31.323n81.286w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Night. I'm not sure if I should expect a decoupled and barely alive Alberto in the morning, or a re-strengthened and vertically stacked storm.



It doesn't even take satellite imagery to see that, look at the radar imagery, it looks like crap, lol.

LOL, the ancient Rolling Stone, Mick Jagger on SNL is showing a heluva lot more life right now than, uh, "newborn" Alberto!
;)

If anyone's still here, stick around; I'm doing a blog update on 92E now. The previous discussion for Alberto will be appended, save updating current storm information to match recent NHC fixes.
i wounder if Alberto still has a low with it
docked and worn out....raining in Charleston
Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if Alberto still has a low with it


low chance lol
Quoting presslord:
docked and worn out....raining in Charleston
good too hear now go home and get some sleep
510. j2008
Quoting presslord:
docked and worn out....raining in Charleston
Good to see your back safe. Glad you could cheak in with the night crowd. Alberto really looking bad on radar (as in unhealthy), how is it there besides rainy?
I think convection is starting to creep back towards Alberto's center.

Quoting j2008:
Good to see your back safe. Glad you could cheak in with the night crowd. Alberto really looking bad on radar (as in unhealthy), how is it there besides rainy?



mostly just rainy....harbor was pretty stirred up
**11:00PM ADVISORY**
(click to magnify graphics; graphics can be further magnified in link window)

Quoting presslord:




mostly just rainy....harbor was pretty stirred up


Good to see my fellow South Carolinian again. If Alberto can actually manage to get itself together again, you'll be our first-hand reporter!
515. j2008
Quoting presslord:




mostly just rainy....harbor was pretty stirred up
Awesome, thanks. Hopefully this will just be a nice rain event for you guys. Stay safe and keep us updated. In the meanwhile get some rest.
01L/TS/A/XX
MARK
31.67N/78.55W



possible convective refire
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
01L/TS/A/XX
MARK
31.67N/78.55W



possible convective refire


DMAX starting up? Not doing much, though.
518. j2008
Quoting cg2916:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
01L/TS/A/XX
MARK
31.67N/78.55W



possible convective refire


DMAX starting up? Not doing much, though.

Last couple frames it looks like convection has finally begun to fire over the LLC again. May not look like much but I have hopes for him. Alberto may yet live another day.
nevermind I was right earlier, the new nhc floaters do not update

the screen goes blank when it goes to the next image, it is not a true jpg updated graphic

That really sucks for those who like to use the NHC floater images to update blogs
Perfect explanation on what's happening here.. Lower wind shear!! The last shear map showed wind shear near 30 knots over Alberto, the newest shear map shows just under 20 knots, which has allowed convection to develop once again. We may see a comeback afterall.
Quoting reedzone:
Perfect explanation on what's happening here.. Lower wind shear!! The last shear map showed wind shear near 30 knots over Alberto, the newest shear map shows just under 20 knots, which has allowed convection to develop once again. We may see a comeback afterall.


Honestly, I don't think shear has ever really been strong over Alberto. Dry air is the larger problem.
Alberto is ramping up convection because everybody went to bed! Also known as heading towards Dmax.

Either way, it should be an interesting several hours ahead for our Atlantic tropical storm.
524. j2008
Quoting Slamguitar:
Alberto is ramping up convection because everybody went to bed! Also known as heading towards Dmax.

Either way, it should be an interesting several hours ahead for our Atlantic tropical storm.
Haha definatly, well I'm out for the night. Keep an eye on Alberto, if I kno him well enough hes got some tricks still left.
Hey Press - you were with us today as several of us WU folks met at HarrynT's. Stay safe!
Quoting presslord:




mostly just rainy....harbor was pretty stirred up
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey Press - you were with us today as several of us WU folks met at HarrynT's. Stay safe!


Thought about PRESS in a DRESS....
and Aubie in a Pink TuTu!
Interesting that the first name coincided with our Girls of WU Meet!

Again stay safe.... We are watching Alberto & remembering other A Storms.
Alberto looks better than it has in the past 6 hours. The dry air that's intruding seems to be slightly less dry now.

We got a pretty solid looking convective blob and it looks like a feeder band MAY be setting up to the NE and blowing up it's own convection.
Shear dropping nicely off the Carolina coast as expected.

Quoting Patrap:


Wilmington
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI



a surprise could be landfall in SC
Cyclone Oz says he is on his way to the Carolina's
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalStormAlberto
32.2n78.0w has been re-evaluated&altered
32.0n78.2w, 31.8n78.7w are now the newest positions

On 20May6amGMT, TSAlberto's ATCF position was 31.8n78.7w
Its vector has changed from WSW at ~6.8mph(11k/h)* to WSW at ~5.4mph(8.7k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds have decreased from ~50knots(58mph)93k/h to ~45knots(52mph)83k/h
And minimum pressure has increased from 995millibars to 998millibars
For those who like to visually track TSAlberto's path...
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida - FHB is FernandinaBeach,Florida - SSI is St.SimonsIsland,Georgia

The northeasternmost unconnected dot was TSAlberto's initial position as 93L
The easternmost dot on the short line-segments is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The easternmost dot on the longest line-segment was its most recent ATCF position

The 08ga*coastline-dumbbell is the endpoint of the previous straightline projection
connected to its closest airport (near Darien,Georgia)
The longest line-segment is a straightline projection thru its 2 most recent positions to the coastline
TSAlberto was headed toward passing over FernandinaBeach,Florida in ~1day7hours from now

Copy&paste jax, fhb, ssi, 08ga-31.323n81.286w, svn, hhh, bft, kjzi, gge, 33.4n76.4w, 33.3n76.6w, 33.1n76.8w, 32.9n77.1w, 32.5n77.3w, 32.3n77.6w-32.0n78.2w, 32.0n78.2w-31.8n78.7w, 32.0n78.2w-30.655n81.433w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.

* Because 32.2n78.0w was re-evaluated&altered to 32.0n78.2w, the speed&direction would have been calculated diffently for the previous mapping using the (now)correct position. So the 08GA dumbell shows an incorrect endpoint because of an incorrect previous straightline projection.
Nonetheless I am reposting it to maintain historicity with the previous map.
But the previous vector(direction&speed) has been corrected to reflect that change to 32.0n78.2w

Who is Cyclone Oz?


Quoting KennyNebraska:
Cyclone Oz says he is on his way to the Carolina's
What is the storm doing this morning?
I dont believe Cyclone Oz is going to the Carolinas. Thats a joke
CycloneOz broadcasts live on crazymother.tv
000
WTNT41 KNHC 200848
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0300 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT. BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO
LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY AIR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS ALBERTO REMAINING
STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND A
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME
WHEN ALBERTO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT INTERACTIONS WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER...A MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE ALBERTO...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS...TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT
DIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 31.7N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 31.4N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 31.2N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 31.6N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 32.8N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 36.2N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0600Z 39.0N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Alberto kinda fell apart the last hour. (Again)
this storm isnt even worth talking about! weve recieved more rain/wind from thunderstorms the past 4 days than we will see with this even if it makes landfall
Good morning... 0z GFS 276 hours:



Alberto:

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO DRIFT PARALLEL TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
OUTER RAINBANDS OF ALBERTO CONTINUE TO COME ONSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
INLAND BERKELEY...INLAND JASPER...BEAUFORT...COASTAL COLLETON...
CHARLESTON...COASTAL JASPER AND TIDAL BERKELEY.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...COASTAL BRYAN...COASTAL CHATHAM...
COASTAL LIBERTY AND COASTAL MCINTOSH...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM
RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7N...LONGITUDE 78.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SC...OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF SAVANNAH
GA. STORM MOTION WAS WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
ALBERTO CONTINUES TO BE A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL STORM WITH
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINS AND STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE
OUTER BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 1/4 INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT MAYBE UP TO 1/2
INCH ALONG THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GAZ117-119-139-141-211000-
/O.NEW.KCHS.HU.S.1001.120520T0951Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
GEORGIA COASTLINE...

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GEORGIA ATLANTIC COASTAL BEACHES TODAY.

$$
Good Morning folks..we got a real good soaking rain for about a half hour or so last night around 10:30 or so,late night sea breeze kinda storm..this morning sky is clear..going to be a hot sunny day here along the west coast..have a great day everyone
You need a magnifying glass to see Alberto but there's definitely been a pretty substantial burst of convection in the last two frames of this:

Link

Having said that, Alberto was really beaten down yesterday, and D-Max didn't help it at all.
I'm not really sure about this, but the lack of convection looks like Alberto is smaller than Marco (2008).......for now
5 Die After Earthquake In Italy

ROME — An earthquake struck the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna on Sunday, killing five people, wounding at least 50 and damaging historic buildings as well as warehouses and factories, officials said.
News from the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization:

Doubled Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms


Changes in frequencies of storms in the Midwest, by category of storm size for five decades, 1961-1970 through 2001-2010. Labeled changes are for the last decade. Comparisons are to frequencies in 1961-1990.

The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and Natural Resources Defense Council have released a new report, Doubled Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms, which starkly documents how much heavy precipitation has increased in the Midwest and sheds new light on the devastating and costly floods that have hammered the region, especially in recent years.

New RMCO analysis of a half century of precipitation data across the Midwest, defined as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin, indicates the region has had an increasing number of large storms since 1961. The largest of storms—those of three inches or more of precipitation in a single day—have increased the most, with their annual frequency more than doubling over the past 51 years. The frequencies of all large storms, especially the largest, have particularly spiked this century.

[…]

The report also presents new evidence linking extreme storms in the Midwest to major floods, the region's most costly regularly ocurring natural disasters. The new analysis shows that the two worst years in the Midwest for storms of three inches or more per day were 2008 and 1993, the years with the Midwest's worst floods in some 80 years, which caused $16 billion and $33 billion in damages and rank among the nation's worst natural disasters. The report presents new evidence linking the 2008 flooding to extreme storms, showing that, in areas with the worst flooding, 48% of the local precipitation came from extreme storms.

As Stephen Saunders, president of RMCO and the report's primary author, said: “Global studies already show that human-caused climate change is driving more extreme precipitation, and now we’ve documented how great the increase has been in the Midwest and linked the extreme storms to flooding in the region. A threshold may already have been crossed, so that major floods in the Midwest perhaps now should no longer be considered purely natural disasters but instead mixed natural/unnatural disasters. And if emissions keep going up, the forecast is for more extreme storms in the region.”

Read the whole thing here
Deleted and moved to 551 cus I wanted to make sure KEEPEROFTHEGATE sees it.
538 uncwhurricane85: This storm isnt even worth talking about! We've received more rain/wind from thunderstorms the past 4 days than we will see with this even if it makes landfall.

Once upon a time, PatRobertson prophesized that God'sWrath would send a HUGE hurricane to destroy DisneyWorld and Orlando because they didn't prevent an unofficial GayDay from happening there.
And sure enough, 2 HUGE hurricanes wreaked havoc...
...upon PatRobertson's 700Club home turf in VirginiaBeach: 1998's Bonnie and 1999's Floyd.
Those same two HurricaneSeasons were relatively mild for Florida considering its history.

In other words, don't go predictin' what a hurricane will do damage-wise lest ya jinx yourself.

Sometimes ya can almost get the feelin' that hurricanes have a very VICIOUS sense of humor:
NewOrleans breathed a sigh of relief because the worst of Katrina was over... then the levees collapsed.
Rita heads at the Houston metroplex like a maddened bull charges a rodeo clown -- terrifying people with visions of "another Katrina" so soon after the original -- then veers away... after proving that Houston's DisasterEvacuationPlan was a disaster in&of itself.
Then after all too many of those folks had convinced themselves that the Rita fiasco proved that nothing was worth putting up with the hassle of a mass evacuation, Ike takes out the Galveston area.

Edit in: 503 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: [Atlantic SurfaceWind Map]

Now that's a cool map.
At least along the surface, looks like the Bermuda-AzoresHigh is trying spinning up TSAlberto off of SouthCarolina AND trying to spinup the low off of the Virgina-NorthCarolina border, blocking TSAlberto from heading north.
Good Morning. 92E is up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Good Morning.
Alberto keeps pulsing convection. Yesterday around 6 p.m., it peaked around 60 mph. I didn't expect much strengthening this morning, the conditions are just not there for further development, however, for the first storm to make it up to 60 mph in May, is pretty darn good. I'm satisfied.
D-Min and D-Max are completely overhyped if you will on this website, as can be seen D-max had little to no affect on Alberto in fact it kept weakening. I seem to remember it did little to past systems as well, not to say it doesn't exist because it does but it might be only a minor factor. Hope this doesn't come off as a rant, but I think somebody has to say it...

Alberto looks better than last night. Good Morning.
Always very cool to have the benefit of watching real time doppler images when these storms are close to shore (or as they make landfall if that were the case).
Morning everyone...

I missed all the excitement yesterday when Alberto formed. How much fun it is to have something to watch this early in the year....

Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur. [From the doc's comments above]

This implies to me that the little spin in the GOH is a more worrisome indicator of what the season could bring than is Alberto. I don't know how busy the overall season is likely to be, but I would not be at all surprised to see a fair amount of early season activity, that is, above average for the MJJ period.

In any case, I'm going to enjoy Alberto while he is around....

Off to Church. See every one later.
Alberto has a closed low...apparenty?.. How'd they determine that? Did they send in HH or use other data?
Quoting muddertracker:
Alberto has a closed low...apparenty?.. How'd they determine that? Did they send in HH or use other data?

umm I think if it wasn't closed I don't think they would have called it a tropical storm and give it a name I don't even think they would call that a TD
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
815 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...

GUADALUPE RIVER NEAR BLOOMINGTON AFFECTING CALHOUN AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES

.RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO
STATIONS...OR CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION...AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD AFFECT CREST
FORECASTS.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP. IN THE BLUE MENU SECTION ON THE LEFT OF
OUR HOME PAGE...UNDER THE "CURRENT WEATHER" SUBMENU...CLICK
ON "RIVERS/LAKES" WHICH TAKES YOU TO OUR AHPS WEB PAGE.


&&

TXC057-469-201915-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120521T1130Z/
/DUPT2.1.ER.120518T1552Z.120519T1700Z.120520T1930 Z.NO/
815 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE GUADALUPE RIVER NEAR BLOOMINGTON.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

* AT 20.0 FEET MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS...WITH THE FLOW REACHING
THE RIGHT FLOOD PLAIN NEAR THE INVISTA PLANT NEAR BLOOMINGTON.
DOWNSTREAM ABOVE HIGHWAY 35...THE FLOW ESCAPES INTO THE LEFT FLOOD
PLAIN CUTTING OFF THE LOWEST HOMES.

$$

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND STAGE FORECASTS:


FLD LATEST FORECAST 6 AM LST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SUN MON TUE WED THU

GUADALUPE RIVER
BLOOMINGTON 20 21.9 SAT 08 PM 21.1 17.9 14.6 13.4 13.5

$$
Quoting muddertracker:
Alberto has a closed low...apparenty?.. How'd they determine that? Did they send in HH or use other data?


Definitely closed.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

umm I think if it wasn't closed I don't think they would have called it a tropical storm and give it a name I don't even think they would call that a TD


No argument there..you are absolutely correct..I was just wondering how they determined it for Alberto...they usually send in HH to do that...just wondering when they went in yesterday :)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Definitely closed.


Yeah...that's a great shot!
Quoting muddertracker:


No argument there..you are absolutely correct..I was just wondering how they determined it for Alberto...they usually send in HH to do that...just wondering when they went in yesterday :)

They didn't send a plane. They decided to classify it after analyzing satellite and radar data.
Quoting muddertracker:


No argument there..you are absolutely correct..I was just wondering how they determined it for Alberto...they usually send in HH to do that...just wondering when they went in yesterday :)


well they used radar/sattelite, ship/buoy data, and blogger from Weather underground lol
Quoting muddertracker:


No argument there..you are absolutely correct..I was just wondering how they determined it for Alberto...they usually send in HH to do that...just wondering when they went in yesterday :)


Good morning.

The NHC conducted an ambiguity analysis on the ASCAT pass of yesterday morning and determined that the low was closed. Based upon that and other data they classified Alberto.
Alberto has definitely recovered from DMAX, looks good.

Thanks guys...got it now.
ATCF sees the weakening; winds are down 5 knots, pressure is up two millibars:

AL, 01, 2012052012, , BEST, 0, 317N, 793W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 60, 1013, 60, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALBERTO, M
GOH low moved inland overnight.
Cycone Oz is enroute to the Outer Banks to document and broadcast its passage!
This will be a good practice run for what may be an active land fall season!
Go Brian!


According to this there still appears to be a circulation in the GOH.
Quoting MrstormX:
D-Min and D-Max are completely overhyped if you will on this website, as can be seen D-max had little to no affect on Alberto in fact it kept weakening. I seem to remember it did little to past systems as well, not to say it doesn't exist because it does but it might be only a minor factor. Hope this doesn't come off as a rant, but I think somebody has to say it...


It just helped the convection a little bit
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Ok...so I am going thru the weekend trying to get stuff done not really paying attention to the news at all...we go to an auction this evening just to get away from it all and my phone sends me a weather alert...i click the app thinking yep, more rain like the other night so I have to watch for local flooding...when the sucker finally comes up there is a named storm...REALLY???? That was a big "Hey you, stupid, think its time to start getting your supplies ready" kind of thing....
Ayup... it's that time of year, alright....

lol.... good to see u in the blog, tigger....

Quoting Tazmanian:




you wake up too a cat 5 hurricane in the AM by Alberto
One hopes not! Taz, u r very bad....

lol

Quoting presslord:
docked and worn out....raining in Charleston
Glad to see u made it in ok.

Quoting uncwhurricane85:
this storm isnt even worth talking about! weve recieved more rain/wind from thunderstorms the past 4 days than we will see with this even if it makes landfall
Yep, but not because it's likely to bring severe conditions to the coast. I don't think the NHC actually expects it to make landfall at all.

Quoting MrstormX:
D-Min and D-Max are completely overhyped if you will on this website, as can be seen D-max had little to no affect on Alberto in fact it kept weakening. I seem to remember it did little to past systems as well, not to say it doesn't exist because it does but it might be only a minor factor. Hope this doesn't come off as a rant, but I think somebody has to say it...
Actually, DMax / DMin have greater impacts on Twaves and depressions than they do on more organized storms. Understanding that little fact may do a lot to clarify what is "hyped" and what is not.

Glad you made it in OK Presslord!

Quoting aspectre:
538 uncwhurricane85: This storm isnt even worth talking about! We've received more rain/wind from thunderstorms the past 4 days than we will see with this even if it makes landfall.

Once upon a time, PatRobertson prophesized that God'sWrath would send a HUGE hurricane to destroy DisneyWorld and Orlando because they didn't prevent an unofficial GayDay from happening there.
And sure enough, 2 HUGE hurricanes wreaked havoc...
...upon PatRobertson's 700Club home turf in VirginiaBeach: 1998's Bonnie and 1999's Floyd.
Those same two HurricaneSeasons were relatively mild for Florida considering its history.

In other words, don't go predictin' what a hurricane will do damage-wise lest ya jinx yourself.

Sometimes ya can almost get the feelin' that hurricanes have a very VICIOUS sense of humor:
NewOrleans breathed a sigh of relief because the worst of Katrina was over... then the levees collapsed.
Rita heads at the Houston metroplex like a maddened bull charges a rodeo clown -- terrifying people with vision's of "another Katrina" so soon after the original -- then veers away... after proving that Houston's DisasterEvacuationPlan was a disaster in&of itself.
Then after all too many of those folks had convinced themselves that the Rita fiasco proved that nothing was worth putting up with the hassle of a mass evacuation, Ike takes out Galveston area.

Edit in: 503 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: [Atlantic SurfaceWind Map]

Now that's a cool map.
At least along the surface, looks like the Bermuda-AzoresHigh is trying spinning up TSAlberto off of SouthCarolina AND trying to spinup the low off of the Virgina-NorthCarolina border, blocking TSAlberto from heading north.


yeah well this is a 50mph tropical storm, that is the size of connecticut, and will not be stalling after if makes its move north. id hardly compare it to anything like Katrina or Rita, or any storm for that matter. Plus the area affected is much prepared and not below sea level and can take huge amounts of rain fall. So calm down!
According to 8:05am Tropical Weather Discussion, there is a surface trough remaining in GOH.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Alberto looks better than last night. Good Morning.

Hey.
Albertos banding has improved over night...
It now had bands starting on all sides, mot just the north side
Quoting Articuno:

Hey. I think Alberto has recovered enough to strengthen just another 5 or maybe 10 mph.


That's what It looks like; however, the latest atcf doesn't show the strengthening we see
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Always very cool to have the benefit of watching real time doppler images when these storms are close to shore (or as they make landfall if that were the case).


Any Reports of T'S wind on the Carolina Coast?
Good afternoon,boys and girls!


Looking at just the temperature gradient map alone (and realizing much more goes into things), it seems there may exist a potential for some severe weather into next week:

heat

Meanwhile, the SPC says this for Day 3:

THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY
REQUIRE AN INCREASE TO SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.

And, FWIW, the 8-14 day temperature outlook, a reminder that summer is nearly upon us:

heat
Quoting Articuno:

Hey.

Hey Ryan. Alberto looks better, but not as good as it was yesterday at noon.

On another note, the Western Caribbean has been rather unstable lately.
there is still a low in the GOH but it is weak however obs show that therer is still a circluation and the low pressure is 1008mb right in the middel of the circulation now shear is still high however it is droping very slowly but should bring good amount of lower shear between 24-48hours which should redevelop the low stronger
winds

pressure

shear

shear forecast 24 hours

shear forecast 36 hours

shear forecast 48 hours
Quoting Grothar:
Good afternoon,boys and girls!




Gro, it's morning!!
Quoting TuMama:
If you are off the SC coast you better evacuate the ocean now! Rip Current KILL!

yeah good one I just wish people can listen to that cause they never do so let them go out there and get kills you never know we may get our first death of the season
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yeah well this is a 50mph tropical storm, that is the size of connecticut, and will not be stalling after if makes its move north. id hardly compare it to anything like Katrina or Rita, or any storm for that matter. Plus the area affected is much prepared and not below sea level and can take huge amounts of rain fall. So calm down!
Uh, not quite sure what ur post has to do with his post, but....

Really! nobody expected for this to be some kind of disaster scenario... so ur first comment was like anti-hyping something nobody had hyped in the first place.

Oz will be on Tybee Island in about 1/2 an hour. A good place to witness our first storm of the season.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Uh, not quite sure what ur post has to do with his post, but....

Really! nobody expected for this to be some kind of disaster scenario... so ur first comment was like anti-hyping something nobody had hyped in the first place.



yeah i know, i was just commenting back, no big deal.
Good morning!

Alberto is looking better this morning. It isn't decoupled and its structure has improved. Still could use some strong convection over the center of circulation.
Quoting reedzone:
Alberto has definitely recovered from DMAX, looks good.

,its half naked from sw sheer,it'll be declassified tonight imo
Hey Doug,
Tell that crazy man to be careful and to stay away from the panhandle! LoL
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Oz will be on Tybee Island in about 1/2 an hour. A good place to witness our first storm of the season.
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
852 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM AND SAVANNAH GA TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR AND GRAYS
REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY

AMZ374-210400-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
852 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

.TODAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT...BUILDING TO 11 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N WINDS 35 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 11 TO 12 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF TSTMS.
.MON...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT...
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EARLY IN THE EVENING... THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT...
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.

MARINERS ARE REMINDED THAT WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.

$$
gee this flooding has been going on for almost a week now in NC.....................FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
957 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...

GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE AFFECTING FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM
UNDER THE RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

SCC041-067-210557-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120523T0359Z/
/PDES1.1.ER.120518T0845Z.120520T1800Z.120522T1559 Z.NO/
957 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 9:00 AM SUNDAY...THE STAGE WAS 20.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING...AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.1 FEET BY THIS
EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY
MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL AFFECT SWAMPLANDS AND
LOGGING INTERESTS. FLOOD WATERS WILL AFFECT TIMBERLAND AS FAR
DOWNSTREAM AS YAUHANNAH TWO WEEKS AFTER THE CREST PASSES PEE DEE.
LOGGING EQUIPMENT NEEDS TO BE MOVED.

$$
47
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yeah i know, i was just commenting back, no big deal.
LOL... I thought his post was kinda fun, but I seriously doubt most of us will actually follow that sound advice he gave... we will likely all at some point overhype or underplay or try to say where a storm will end up.... it's almost impossible not to do it.....

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018- VAZ052>057-
211000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT SENSITIVE SITES LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE MINOR OR POSSIBLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Quoting LargoFl:

purple back in the W caribbean
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

purple back in the W caribbean
yes june 1st is getting closer and the gulf waters are warm
Uh oh.... If any of you have been following the Fukushima situation, you'd be worried to know that two earthquakes around 6.0 occurred off the east coast of Japan today. Waiting on news from tepco...
wet times in the nw carib it seems
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey Doug,
Tell that crazy man to be careful and to stay away from the panhandle! LoL



I'll pass that on. Also, he just recently moved back to the Pensacola area after being in New Mexico for 21 years. Thanks!
Quoting stillwaiting:
,its half naked from sw sheer,it'll be declassified tonight imo
doubt it
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Uh oh.... If any of you have been following the Fukushima situation, you'd be worried to know that two earthquakes around 6.0 occurred off the east coast of Japan today. Waiting on news from tepco...
gee it just keeps on blasting those poor people over there. one event after another
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Uh oh.... If any of you have been following the Fukushima situation, you'd be worried to know that two earthquakes around 6.0 occurred off the east coast of Japan today. Waiting on news from tepco...
TOKYO: Japan was hit by two shallow earthquakes in the space of just eight minutes on Sunday, one of them measuring a strong 6.2-magnitude, but there were no reports of damage and no tsunami alert.

The 6.2-magnitude quake struck at 4:20pm (0720 GMT) off Japan's northeast Pacific coast, the national meteorological agency said, followed by a tremor with a reading of 5.7 at 4:28pm.

The US Geological Survey estimated the magnitude of the first quake at 6.0.

The depth of both quakes was about 10 kilometres, the agency said.

"Sea levels may change slightly due to the (first) earthquake but there is no fear of damage resulting from it," the agency said in a statement.

A 9.0-magnitude undersea earthquake off the same coast triggered a monster tsunami on March 11 last year, leaving about 19,000 people dead or missing and crippling the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
What are the odds of Alberto continuing it's retrograde motion and moving SW into the Gulf coast area?

There is no large steering feature near it, the trough is days away.

It's forecast to start turning N and NE again like right now, but the low and mid level winds don't seem to support that.
maybe first tropical something in may for ns ever!!! might be fun
Alberto had recovered a bit from the decoupling lastnight but just weakened abit again. According to Dvorak CI just dropped to 2.7, pressure is up to 1003mb mean cloud temps are on the rise. Still going SW at about the same clip.

I'm still giving this a small chance to make it to Jacksonville area before it loops back. All depends on the 3rd low forming along that trough over Bahamas & how fast the Low off VA gets to land.
Quoting RTSplayer:
What are the odds of Alberto continuing it's retrograde motion and moving SW into the Gulf coast area?

There is no large steering feature near it, the trough is days away.

It's forecast to start turning N and NE again like right now, but the low and mid level winds don't seem to support that.
now that would be interesting if it did happen
too much shear in the gulf for it to live anyway
Quoting RTSplayer:
What are the odds of Alberto continuing it's retrograde motion and moving SW into the Gulf coast area?

There is no large steering feature near it, the trough is days away.

It's forecast to start turning N and NE again like right now, but the low and mid level winds don't seem to support that.


Yes, and it was supposed to have turned by now.

It just keeps on trucking
Quoting weatherh98:


Yes, and it was supposed to have turned by now.

It just keeps on trucking


Georgia Landfall?
Quoting LargoFl:
now that would be interesting if it did happen


It's not unprecedented:
Ivan
Gordon
Betsy (ok, this is a stretch).
Any news on pre94L? Or if it might develop?
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 20 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
To it's credit, the most recent GFS had it continuing S to SW and then stalling for about a day before moving NE, so maybe the GFS is the best model after all.

GFS stalls it about where it is apparently for 3 days.
Skye, how do you see 92E,that has taken an eternal time to develop?
Alberto, where do you think you're going?
pinhole.?..jk..
I wake up to a better, but still weak, Alberto. Doesn't look like this thing's going to do much. However, for some reason, some of the models predict this thing to get a little stronger in 48 or so hours. Will be interesting to see.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Georgia Landfall?


What? You gotta say florida!!!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Alberto, where do you think you're going?


It may be giving Savannah a visit. I wonder if this thing will turn to the north as it was forecasted.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Alberto, where do you think you're going?


Where else but florida
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Alberto, where do you think you're going?


Where else but florida
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...ALBERTO WEAKENS A LITTLE...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 79.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY. A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH



000
WTNT31 KNHC 201450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...ALBERTO WEAKENS A LITTLE...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 79.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY. A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
Wait, The sateellite llc is away from where it looks like on radar
Quoting cg2916:
I wake up to a better, but still weak, Alberto. Doesn't look like this thing's going to do much. However, for some reason, some of the models predict this thing to get a little stronger in 48 or so hours. Will be interesting to see.


It's on the border of a 27C hot pocket, which is easily the warmest water it's encountered.
Recon going in later!

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED THIS MORNING...AND THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
SYSTEM. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL
SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY AROUND 35 KT...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR NOW. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AT
WHICH TIME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE.

ALBERTO APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST THREE STRIKES AGAINST ANY
RE-INTENSIFICATION. FIRST...DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ARE
ROUGHLY 50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY INGESTING
SOME OF THIS DRY AIR. SECOND...THE CENTER IS MOVING WEST OF THE
GULF STREAM OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/
GEORGIA COAST. AND THIRD...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE KEEPS ALBERTO AT LOW-END TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OCCURRING ON
THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY
72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION.

A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HAS CAUSED ALBERTO
TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE CURRENT
MOTION IS 250/5 KT. THE BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLIDING EASTWARD
TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. ALBERTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT THE EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD BEGINNING ON MONDAY. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE CLUSTER OF OTHER MODELS
AND SHOWS A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS THEREFORE A LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS ON DAYS 3 AND 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 31.5N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 31.2N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 31.4N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 32.3N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 34.2N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/1200Z 39.5N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

Quoting weatherh98:


What? You gotta say florida!!!


Due to the shape of the coastline, I believe a landfall in southern Georgia or extreme north east Florida may be possible.

- South Florida resident.

(Streak of no Hurricanes: 8 Years) (Streak of No Moderete tropical storms: 5 Years)
Quoting weatherh98:
Wait, The sateellite llc is away from where it looks like on radar


Satellites have foreshortening for storms that aren't directly below them.

Also, the low and upper level parts of the system are almost never stacked until about the high end of category 1 or low category 2.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Skye, how do you see 92E,that has taken an eternal time to develop?


That twist is huge..that's really slowing development, well that & it's feeding off the really long line of troughiness that is feeding Gulf of Honduras & developing gale in the Atlantic. Til that splits up & we see where splits first & how much each area gets it's hard to say a definite when. There is also a bit of energy moving at it from the east, might be disruptive at first. 93E looks capable of eventually digesting it though, could be the kick it needs to get free. I'll give it 50% chance.
646. wxmod
Earthquake list for area of last years huge quake in Japan shows very active movement underway.

When is the recon supposed to take off?
cant find a dry air map
1440UTC SUN 20 MAY 2012
PRE 94L AROUND 16.5N 87.5W MOVEMENT STATIONARY

NOTE:convection starting to grow on SW quadrant and NE quadrant. Pressures are weak but as this system grow pressures should drop. Shear is running at 20kt-25kt, should also note. Shear is expected to drop to 10kt-15kt in 24 hours, and 5-10kt in 48 hours.
$
AM
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Due to the shape of the coastline, I believe a landfall in southern Georgia or extreme north east Florida may be possible.

- South Florida resident.

(Streak of no Hurricanes: 8 Years) (Streak of No Moderete tropical storms: 5 Years)


Barry the firefighter was your last one, wasn't it?
Blow up an area of deep convection or you won't survive, Alberto.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Blow up an area of deep convection or you won't survive, Alberto.


It's looking more Jose like by the minute.
653. SLU
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., today announced Rick Knabb, Ph.D., as the next director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. Knabb will start his duties on June 4.

“When hurricanes threaten our coastal communities, those in harm’s way look to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for life-saving information,” said Lubchenco. “Rick personifies that calm, clear and trusted voice that the nation has come to rely on. Rick will also lead our hurricane center team and work closely with federal, state and local emergency management authorities to ensure the public is prepared to weather the storm.”

Knabb returns to NOAA after most recently serving as the on-air tropical weather expert for The Weather Channel in Atlanta since May 2010. Prior to that, Knabb was deputy director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, and before that, he had a distinguished career at the National Hurricane Center in Miami as a senior hurricane specialist and the science and operations officer.

Knabb succeeds Bill Read who retires June 2. “I thank Bill Read for his tireless work throughout his distinguished career with the National Weather Service, including more than four years as director of the National Hurricane Center overseeing 63 tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin alone,” added Lubchenco.

Born just outside of Chicago, Knabb grew up in Coral Springs, Fla., near Ft. Lauderdale, and in Katy, Texas in suburban Houston. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science from Purdue University and holds a master’s degree and Ph.D. in Meteorology from Florida State University.

"I'm ready to reunite with the talented staff at the National Hurricane Center and to work with all of our partners to prepare everyone for the next hurricane,” said Knabb. “Personal preparedness will be critically important, including for my own family and home."

The National Hurricane Center is a component of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The Center’s mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards, enabling communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. The National Hurricane Center is co-located with the National Weather Service Miami-South Florida forecast office on the campus of Florida International University.

Rick Knabb, Ph.D., selected to lead
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center

The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, the National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook , Twitter and our other social media channels.
Quoting cg2916:
When is the recon supposed to take off?


It's not on the Plan of the Day which has been inactive since winter storm flying ended end of March, though that could update any moment. Usually a center fix would be 2pm est so I'll guess that. It may be done as a Non-Task Mission..Nothing is flying there yet, you can watch for that here..
Quoting cg2916:
When is the recon supposed to take off?

This afternoon according to the NHC. They weren't too specific when I asked them lol.
Quoting weatherh98:


Gro, it's morning!!


Not where I am. Just ask Xandra!
Quoting cg2916:


Barry the firefighter was your last one, wasn't it?


What?

I live in West Doral, Florida. What are you talking about?
Quoting Dragod66:
cant find a dry air map


VERY wi ndy and choppy at Chas Harbor
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
1440UTC SUN 20 MAY 2012
PRE 94L AROUND 16.5N 87.5W MOVEMENT STATIONARY

NOTE:convection starting to grow on SW quadrant and NE quadrant. Pressures are weak but as this system grow pressures should drop. Shear is running at 20kt-25kt, should also note. Shear is expected to drop to 10kt-15kt in 24 hours, and 5-10kt in 48 hours.
$
AM
Where did you get this from ? Anyway, NHC has the low back on the map and concvection is increasing.
Quoting Grothar:


Not where I am. Just ask Xandra!
good late afternoon gro
Good morning all
Quoting SLU:
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., today announced Rick Knabb, Ph.D., as the next director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. Knabb will start his duties on June 4.

“When hurricanes threaten our coastal communities, those in harm’s way look to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for life-saving information,” said Lubchenco. “Rick personifies that calm, clear and trusted voice that the nation has come to rely on. Rick will also lead our hurricane center team and work closely with federal, state and local emergency management authorities to ensure the public is prepared to weather the storm.”

Knabb returns to NOAA after most recently serving as the on-air tropical weather expert for The Weather Channel in Atlanta since May 2010. Prior to that, Knabb was deputy director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, and before that, he had a distinguished career at the National Hurricane Center in Miami as a senior hurricane specialist and the science and operations officer.

Knabb succeeds Bill Read who retires June 2. “I thank Bill Read for his tireless work throughout his distinguished career with the National Weather Service, including more than four years as director of the National Hurricane Center overseeing 63 tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin alone,” added Lubchenco.

Born just outside of Chicago, Knabb grew up in Coral Springs, Fla., near Ft. Lauderdale, and in Katy, Texas in suburban Houston. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science from Purdue University and holds a master’s degree and Ph.D. in Meteorology from Florida State University.

"I'm ready to reunite with the talented staff at the National Hurricane Center and to work with all of our partners to prepare everyone for the next hurricane,” said Knabb. “Personal preparedness will be critically important, including for my own family and home."

The National Hurricane Center is a component of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The Center’s mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards, enabling communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. The National Hurricane Center is co-located with the National Weather Service Miami-South Florida forecast office on the campus of Florida International University.

Rick Knabb, Ph.D., selected to lead
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center

The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, the National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook , Twitter and our other social media channels.
wasn't landsea picked or did it change
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Thanks!!!
Possible convective refire up north?

Hello all, good to see that the regulars are still here, looks like we have a early start to the season, i wondwer what that means mmmmmmmmm! Alberto small and i dont expect much from him.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wasn't landsea picked or did it change

Nope, it has always been Knabb.
mornin press...how was that boat ride?
Looks like a party in here...

Early start to the season, huh?

Can anyone provide me a link to the forecast models? I seem to have misplaced them since I moved to Ca.

Thanks, M
Quoting presslord:
VERY wi ndy and choppy at Chas Harbor


Whats the Wind Speed in Knts? How many nautical miles are you from shore?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope, it has always been Knabb.


Does anyone remember who Dr. Masters' pick was for the job?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where did you get this from ? Anyway, NHC has the low back on the map and concvection is increasing.

I see but they should have put it further S and E and should have put it as stationary instead of moving SSW
Lastnight's TRMM Pass

Click pic to open a large Quicktime animation.



I left lastnight's ASCAT & OSCAT passes in my blog. They are 12 hrs so old, wasn't sure if they got posted here already.
Daily SOI: 1.78 30 day SOI: 1.67
Apparently a tornado touched down here in Pinellas County not far from where I got pelted with hail, that would explain the concentration of power flashes last night and emergency vehicles headed in the vicinity where it occurred. Apparently there was no tornado warning either. I've actually seen that happen more than once, I think sometimes that the vortex is often shallow in such situations, lacking a large meso with the apparent thunderstorm ,therefore the tornado was able to occur without enough radar signature to pick up, at least I would think so. I was tracking the thunderstorm on radar and didn't see any obvious sign of rotation that would warrant a tornado touch down, yet there you have it, a 10% chance of rain turned into a powerful thunderstorm that also produced a weak tornado without warning, lol.


Considering the lack of radar signature, I would certainly say no blame can be placed on the NWS for not issuing a warning.
Fukushima Update:


Trillions of becquerels per day still being emitted from Fukushima Daiichi — Radioactive steam continues (VIDEO)

Published: May 20th, 2012 at 12:12 pm ET

If You Love This Planet Radio
May 8, 2012

I would say there are billions, actually trillions, of becquerels per day being released airborne, mainly from Units 2 and 3.

Actually on cold nights you can still the steam coming off those reactors, its not just steam its radioactive steam.

Something on the order of trillions of becquerels per day… trillions of disintegrations per second per day are being released even now.


Dr. Helen Caldicott: So what you’re really saying Arnie Gundersen is that the ocean will continue to be contaminated, kind of for the rest of time. Because there’s no foreseeable way to prevent water leaking out of containment vessels continuously into the ocean… We’re talking about continual contamination of the Pacific Ocean.