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Disturbance 93L off South Carolina coast could become a tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:11 PM GMT on May 19, 2012

A hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed in the waters off the coast of South Carolina, about 120 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Residents along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast should pay attention to 93L, as it has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm and hit the coast on Sunday or Monday, with North Carolina at highest risk. NHC designated this system Invest 93L Saturday morning. Wind shear is a moderate 20 knots over 93L, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, inhibiting development. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough that 93L has a decent chance of developing into the Atlantic's first tropical depression. Since 93L is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Conversely, the storm's small size and favorable positioning over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream mean it is also capable of suddenly organizing, and it would not be surprise to see 93L become Tropical Storm Alberto by Sunday. NHC is giving 92L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble resolving it, and we don't have very good forecasts of the storm right now. Steering currents are weak, and I expect 93L will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. Heavy rain showers from 93L are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. These showers will probably move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye, and winds are probably near 35 - 40 mph in the heaviest rain squalls near the center.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Wilmington radar.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. M.

It looks like the upper-level low to the NE of 93L is starting to scoot off to the NE:

Link
Thanks dr. M!
Thanks doc
Everytime I go to the atcf site, even the ones that have been linked in here the last few days, it shows last years information


Is there a site that has coordinates like the atcf that is more reliable?
Thanks doc, do you think if classified, would it be tropical or subtropical?
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

I'm currently working on a blog post of my own. Haven't made one in a long, long time.
**REPOST FROM THE LAST BLOG**
(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Everytime I go to the atcf site, even the ones that have been linked in here the last few days, it shows last years information


Is there a site that has coordinates like the atcf that is more reliable?


Here is the new file for 2012.

Link
T-minus how-many-hours-93L-has-left-before-it-has-produced convection-for-12-hours until it is named Alberto.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
T-minus how-many-hours-93L-has-left-before-it-has-produced convection-for-12-hours until it is named Alberto.


9 hours I think.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Here is the new file for 2012.

Link


wont come up for me
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
T-minus how-many-hours-93L-has-left-before-it-has-produced convection-for-12-hours until it is named Alberto.
8hrs 47 mins
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
T-minus how-many-hours-93L-has-left-before-it-has-produced convection-for-12-hours until it is named Alberto.


At the 3am
Quoting yqt1001:


9 hours I think.

Thinking 6 hours. Just needs to survive Dmin mostly.
11pm advisory.
more wacky weather doc
Quoting Hurricanes101:


wont come up for me
Your browser is probably what's causing the problems for you. What are you using?
HPC brought 93L down to 1004mbs




Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Your browser is probably what's causing the problems for you. What are you using?


Im using firefox, it is working for me now though
And for anyone who missed it on the previous blog, I put together a blog entry on 93L and did my best to simplify the complex process of 93L becoming a "warm-core" cyclone. I would especially recommend it for anyone who is getting confused by this process and terminology. I also talk about track and intensity forecasts.

For anyone interested: Link


Also, we're getting some banding to develop on the NE side.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Im using firefox, it is working for me now though
Oh ok, all good then hahaa.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


wont come up for me

Keep reloading until it does. I have the same problem.
Thanks Dr. Masters
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Im using firefox, it is working for me now though


Ok good. Here is the ATCF 2012 file again.

Link
Thanks Dr. Masters
Did the blog slow down?
GOES-E Satellite view.
Link

Continuing to become better organized.
I see code red coming soon...
Can you imagine if that moisture in the Atlantic could wrap around 93L??

I find it very interesting that there may be a tropical storm within 150 miles of the US coastline this evening and this blog is so slow. I think a lot of people are going to be caught off-guard since it isn't even technically hurricane season yet. Thankfully it looks like 93L will not reach hurricane strength.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I see code red coming soon...


Depends on when they next decide to update the TWO.
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for 93L
Invest93L's vector has changed from SW at ~3.7mph(6k/h) to SSW at ~3.9mph(6.3k/h)
Its MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady at ~30knots(34.5mph)55.6k/h
And its minimum pressure has held steady at 1009millibars
For those who like to visually track 93L's path...

The northeasternmost dot on the connected lines was 93L's initial position from the ATCF
The southwesternmost dot on the connected lines was 93L's most recent position
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida , SVN is Savannah,Georgia , GGE is Georgetown,SouthCarolina

Copy&paste jax, ssi, 08ga, svn, hhh, bft, kjzi, gge, 33.4n76.4w-33.3n76.6w, 33.3n76.6w-33.1n76.8w, 33.1n76.8w-32.9n77.1w, 32.9n77.1w-32.6n77.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
There is no previous mapping for comparison.
Just a quick reference to the Low down in the Gulf of Honduras. That feature is stuck down there stationary, but today convection is firing around the small low level surface swirl. I would say in terms of convection building around the actual low level swirl, it looks about as good as it has been in its existence. Question is how much will the shear abate in that region? If the shear relaxes just a bit, this Low will have a bit of a fighting chance to do something.

It is just a matter of when now as to the designation of Alberto. I think that will occur this evening. An impressive small cyclone indeed. A very compact tight system which looks to impact the Carolinas' coastal regions in the next 48 hours.
ASCAT finally hit it. It's upgrade time! 3 40kt barbs!

38. fo
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I find it very interesting that there may be a tropical storm within 150 miles of the US coastline this evening and this blog is so slow. I think a lot of people are going to be caught off-guard since it isn't even technically hurricane season yet. Thankfully it looks like 93L will not reach hurricane strength.


I am in SC, and I am watching this system carefully. We had dime sized hail from this system two days ago. However, current pressure is stable at 1019.7 :(. Our chance of rain from this system is also just 20%.
92E stays at 20%.


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
ASCAT finally hit it. It's upgrade time! 3 40kt barbs!

I don't think that the wind speed was what was ever in question in terms of classifying it a tropical cyclone. But that does justify going straight to Alberto instead of TD.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Depends on when they next decide to update the TWO.

I still see a code red coming
Just posted my blog update for 93L.

Invest 93L Could Become Alberto this Weekend
How do you post an image on here?
Quoting WxGeekVA:
ASCAT finally hit it. It's upgrade time! 3 40kt barbs!

Circulation appears a bit sloppy in the eastern and northeastern octant, and both satellite and radar imagery do not do much to refute those claims; however, those wind barbs do seem pretty convincing and the system may skip tropical depression status upon classification, should it occur.
I say give it 6 more hours or so of sustained convection to be named.
47. SLU
Quoting WxGeekVA:
ASCAT finally hit it. It's upgrade time! 3 40kt barbs!



Very impressive ASCAT pass. We could have our 1st TS by tonight. May has been quite interesting for a season that's expected to be slightly below normal.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
ASCAT finally hit it. It's upgrade time! 3 40kt barbs!

The center is elongated to the SE a bit. Looks like a trough is on that side.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Interesting. This was also one issue that 90L in May 2009 had that it wasn't upgraded.

However, this has at least a day over water apparently.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
this analysis by the HPC is exactly what the ASCAT pass shows with troughs extending from the center to the E and SE.
I don't see anything troughy about it...



LOOP
Even so, it shouldn't be anything to prevent 93L from being named.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
this analysis by the HPC is exactly what the ASCAT pass shows with troughs extending from the center to the E and SE.
Bingo: constituting towards the sloppy circulation. Due to this, classification may take a little longer than originally anticipated, but it looks like it will skip straight to a 35-40 knot tropical storm if/when it does it occur.
93L doesn't seem to have changed much over the past few hours, which can be seen as both good and bad for it... On one hand, it isn't getting much stronger and it doesn't have to long to strengthen, but it also isn't getting any weaker and it is managing to hold its convection which is a must if it is to be named Alberto. I still say it has a very good chance.
IF convection can hold and if this continues to organize, I'd say that Alberto at 5pm is a decent bet. 




Thanks Dr. M! I also have a hot-of-the-press detalied update on my blog....looks like we are on the same page with this one!
Alberto at 8pm etc. Special update, I bet.
2:05PM Discussion

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N77W...OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MYRTLE BEACH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 100 NM OVER THE N AND NW QUADRANTS...
AFFECTING MOSTLY THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS FROM
31N-34N. DRY AIR INTRUSION IS OBSERVED OVER THE ERN AND SRN
QUADRANTS NEARLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THIS DRY AIR PUNCH IS RELATED TO AN ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH/WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
...TO THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXHIBITS BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS...
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.
Is recon scheduled to investigate it?
Quoting tropicfreak:
Is recon scheduled to investigate it?

Not at this time.
809 wunderkidcayman: soon we should expect...
810 wunderkidcayman: WARNING STATEMENT ABOVE IS NOT REAL

You've worked to give yourself a pretty good reputation on this blog.
How would you feel if a troll started posting stuff under your forum-identity?

Do NOT imitate or approximately imitate weather bulletins, TropicalWeatherOutlooks, weather warnings, earthquake alerts, or official documents of any kind whatsoever
Disclaimers do not in any way excuse the fact that you are impinging on another entity's identity and reputation.
Identity theft and/or close approximations have not and will not be tolerated.
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
32.25N/77.47W
Levi is saying this will be Alberto this evening of convection persists.

Doing a great job right now
Really good amount of lightning occurring again in the circulation. 
Wow... judging by the latest imagery and such, they should just declare this invest a tropical cyclone already. Might as well, it's looking like a guarantee at this point.
93L is definitely having no problem holding its convection... If anything the convection is getting stronger and better organized... I think Alberto by 11 PM is likely and its possible it could happen sooner
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Wow... judging by the latest imagery and such, they should just declare this invest a tropical cyclone already. Might as well, it's looking like a guarantee at this point.


I agree... definitely looking very well-organized and quite compact I might add. We'll just have to wait for a few more passes to determine if we do indeed have a closed circulation, but by the looks of things we may already be looking at Alberto.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Really good amount of lightning occurring again in the circulation. 


A sign that it is strengthening.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
32.25N/77.47W

Not being sheared off in the least
Ummm doesn't the Doc mean 93L?.He said "The NHC is giving 92L a 50 percent chance"
Based upon the organization and depth of the convection in association with Invest 93L this afternoon and given the latest satellite presentation and wind scatterometer data, this system is well on the way toward becoming Tropical Storm Alberto before the day ends. We have very defined low level inflow as shown on the eastern semicircle of the circulation as well as solid outflow channel to the north and west. Also, long range radar imagery is showing good lightning and very heavy rainfall indicating that the convection is deepening and maintaining. So, at this time, I would be more than confident in calling for Tropical Storm Alberto to be born by tonight.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
93L 12Z HWRF not much.


GFDL

The HWRF is probably a pretty realistic forecast... The GFDL intensity is bogus as 93L is already at that model's predicted max intensity

This isn't going to be that big of a deal in terms of intensity... Anything above 50mph is unlikely... Just a nice warm-up for the season!
Impressive on radar:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
93L is definitely having no problem holding its convection... If anything the convection is getting stronger and better organized... I think Alberto by 11 PM is likely and its possible it could happen sooner

I am with you and Levi (and perahps many others...LOL) that it will become Alberto! I also put the odds at 100% just now....looks like most of us are on the same page....

Curious...anyone here thinks it won't become Alberto?
78. LBAR
Bring on the rain to Charleston! We need it. Most of the big thunderstorms have missed us on down to Beaufort, SC.
93L looks pretty good for a tropical system. I'd be in on a bet for at least a TD by 8pm Eastern.
If this gets strong enough, would it bring a spin up tornado threat?
Any one think it will make cat 1, the circulation is already acquiring an eye on radar.
Lol I come back and now we have a TS forming of the East Coast? Crazy.
edit: outdated image
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I am with you and Levi (and perahps many others...LOL) that it will become Alberto! I also put the odds at 100% just now....looks like most of us are on the same page....

Curious...anyone here thinks it won't become Alberto?

It's not a total guarentee... We saw how fast 92L fell apart so 93L could do the same thing... Also the circulation isn't fantastic so it will need to improve that a little... Still, it's likely we get something out of this... I say 80% chance
From pro met:

"Obviously it's still battling 20 kts of shear or more, which is the only reason it's not developing very rapidly. If the shear lets up a bit then it could become a strong TS or even a hurricane within 24 hrs."

Sick of posting from my phone...
Very old pass from 7am. 
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Actually, the convection may actually be trying to form an eyewall according to this...

93L Floater is up on the NHC page
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If this gets strong enough, would it bring a spin up tornado threat?
Any one think it will make cat 1, the circulation is already acquiring an eye on radar.


LOL
Quoting WxGeekVA:
93L Floater is up on the NHC page

It's about time... Of course none of the images are up yet
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Very old pass from 7am. 



Thank you, I did not notice that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
From pro met:

"Obviously it's still battling 20 kts of shear or more, which is the only reason it's not developing very rapidly. If the shear lets up a bit then it could become a strong TS or even a hurricane within 24 hrs."

Sick of posting from my phone...
Me too.
Wow I'm only 200 miles to north from 93L... think this will landfall in Carolinas? We got enough rain for a week...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's about time... Of course none of the images are up yet


They will be anytime now.... F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 time to get some practice in!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If this gets strong enough, would it bring a spin up tornado threat?
Any one think it will make cat 1, the circulation is already acquiring an eye on radar.

Think it has a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If this gets strong enough, would it bring a spin up tornado threat?
Any one think it will make cat 1, the circulation is already acquiring an eye on radar.


Possible, unknown yet. SPC isn't too concerned though.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's not a total guarentee... We saw how fast 92L fell apart so 93L could do the same thing... Also the circulation isn't fantastic so it will need to improve that a little... Still, it's likely we get something out of this... I say 80% chance

Did you see the radar in post 76? There is a pretty good swirl in the low clouds...so its defintely got a tight circulation. Yeah yesterday it wasn't a good circulation....but now its a whole different ball game (no pun intended)....

Unlike 92L...this has established a very very good anticyclone all the way up to 200 mb...the convection in 92L didn't last long enough to punch out a 200 mb anticyclone like 93L is. The heat release from the convection keeps feeding the 200 mb anticyclone...and the ventilation from the anticyclone is causing the surface pressures to keep on dropping (down to 1004 mb on HPC maps).

With this going on...I don't know why this is even being called "baroclinic" in the 2PM NHC Tropical Weather Discussion. I guess its because of technically what the phase diagrams say....hmmm....
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wow I'm only 200 miles to north from 93L... think this will landfall in Carolinas? We got enough rain for a week...
no track is quasi stationary with a slow drift to the west sw over the next 24 hrs
because of its position and closness to land advis made be init for sw south caroliner coast and the cen ga coast and possible as far south as jax along ne fla coast
Maybe a sub-tropical storm,but I highly doubt a fully developed tropical storm this far north at this time of year. The air has that cool-dry feel to it coming off the Atlantic instead of the warm,humid air usually associated with tropical systems.
Quoting overwash12:
Maybe a sub-tropical storm,but I highly doubt a fully developed tropical storm this far north at this time of year. The air has that cool-dry feel to it coming off the Atlantic instead of the warm,humid air usually associated with tropical systems.


NHC gave no hint on the TWO that this is sub-tropical, and the SST's are more than warm enough to support a fully tropical cyclone. There's also this:
19/1745 UTC 32.1N 77.8W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic

If it was sub-tropical, it would say ST.

Quoting overwash12:
Maybe a sub-tropical storm,but I highly doubt a fully developed tropical storm this far north at this time of year. The air has that cool-dry feel to it coming off the Atlantic instead of the warm,humid air usually associated with tropical systems.


Could be AMM with the cooler coastal temps
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If this gets strong enough, would it bring a spin up tornado threat?
Any one think it will make cat 1, the circulation is already acquiring an eye on radar.

Like all tropical cyclones...yeah there could be a slight tornado threat if the spiral rain bands would get on up into land. I believe when spiral rain bands from a tropical cyclone suddenly slam into the friction of land...it can cause weak tornadoes to spin up. I am not sure exactly why/how this happens...anyone else can elaborate?

Also...I don't think there is a strong understanding about tornadoes and tropical cyclones. Some cyclones produce a lot of tornadoes and others do not at all...
Best looking May Invest I've seen.
AL, 93, 2012051918,   , BEST,   0, 323N,  776W,  40, 1007, LO,  34, NEQ,
												
Quoting weatherh98:


Could be AMM with the cooler coastal temps
What is AMM?
Aletta and 92 in the EPac.
93 in the ATL.
It's still May, right ? Or did I miss something ???
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Best looking May Invest I've seen.

The most impressive May system near the east coast was Category 3 (Major) Hurricane Able in 1951. Its the only major hurricane in the Atlantic in the month of May. I bet if there were Invests and satellites back then...it would have looked pretty cool too...

P.S. I am not saying this is going to be like Able ;)
ATCF indicates 45mph tropical cyclone, should classification occur. 5p.m EDT doesn't seem all that unlikely at this point.
Quoting pottery:
Aletta and 92 in the EPac.
93 in the ATL.
It's still May, right ? Or did I miss something ???

Aletta is no more.
ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 120519120000
2012051912
32.4 282.3
-999.9-999.9
100
32.4 282.3
191800
1205191800
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 191800Z
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS OF 32.4N 77.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191555Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 77.7W. THE SYSTEM
DISPLAYS A WESTWARD DRIFT LESS THAN 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE AREA OF INTEREST DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESISTING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201800Z.//
9312051912 324N 777W 30

TAFB at 2.0, tropical


AL 93 201205191745 DVTS 3210N 7780W SAB EG 1515 ///// T DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=1.5 FTBO CON
AL 93 201205191745 DVTS 3220N 7770W TAFB SS 2020 ///// T DT 2.0 BO CURVED BAND
191800Z MAY 12
FM FWC-N
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NLMC/OVLY2/0087/MAY
OVLY/TCFA/191800Z9/MAY/1OF1/TCFA AL9312/METOC
ARC/0/G///322400N1/0774200W0/100NM
TEXT/20//G/294200N7/0774800W6/TCFA AL9312
TEXT/20//G/284200N6/0774800W6/VALID UNTIL 201800Z
TEXT/20//G/274200N5/0774800W6/WINDS: 30-35 KTS
TEXT/20//G/264200N4/0774800W6/MVG: WESTWARD LESS THAN 05 KNOTS
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

Marco...
Alberto...
: )


Convection near to the center of GOH disturbance
TCFA up for 93L.
All of the bloggers should make the NHC2.
Quoting sunlinepr:


You can see the transition away from baroclinic as the trough weakens and convection consolidates around the center. This should become Alberto very soon.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TCFA up for 93L.

Who issues TCFAs (tropical cyclone formation alerts) for 93L?

By the way...you can read my 12th discussion this year and also my 1:45 PM EDT update if you want to know (in high detail) how this system originated and developed. I can understand this might seem like it "came out of thin air" for those who haven't been watching the tropics lately...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Who issues TCFAs (tropical cyclone formation alerts) for 93L?

By the way...you can read my 12th discussion this year and also my 1:45 PM EDT update if you want to know (in high detail) how this system originated and developed. I can understand this might seem like it "came out of thin air" for those who haven't been watching the tropics lately...


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 93L
May-19-12, 2:30:01 PM | Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)
Issued: Sat 19 May 2012 18:00Z
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Graphic
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Text
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert JMV data
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Gold Ovly
FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page
128. JLPR2
That was quick o.O



Yesterday, nothing
Today, 93L at the verge of becoming a TS.

Not bad, 2012...
If that isn't a tropical storm I'll eat crow. Hi, Alberto!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
AL, 93, 2012051918,   , BEST,   0, 323N,  776W,  40, 1007, LO,  34, NEQ,


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 120519120000
2012051912
32.4 282.3
-999.9-999.9
100
32.4 282.3
191800
1205191800
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 191800Z
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS OF 32.4N 77.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191555Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 77.7W. THE SYSTEM
DISPLAYS A WESTWARD DRIFT LESS THAN 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE AREA OF INTEREST DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESISTING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201800Z.//
9312051912 324N 777W 30



Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TAFB at 2.0, tropical


AL 93 201205191745 DVTS 3210N 7780W SAB EG 1515 ///// T DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=1.5 FTBO CON
AL 93 201205191745 DVTS 3220N 7770W TAFB SS 2020 ///// T DT 2.0 BO CURVED BAND


With all this latest data coming in as well as the issuance of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, it appears we may just be a matter of hours from the birth of Tropical Storm Alberto. There is nothing that I have seen that would prevent this from becoming Tropical Storm Alberto given the current trends and satellite analysis.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


You can see the transition away from baroclinic as the trough weakens and convection consolidates around the center. This should become Alberto very soon.


This is correct..Its clearly atleast a TD or a weak TS. If it wasn't for those 20kt westerlies over it this could have very quickly intensified into a hurricane.
Small Craft Advisory just went up for the east coast. No surprise there.

Link
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Who issues TCFAs (tropical cyclone formation alerts) for 93L?

By the way...you can read my 12th discussion this year and also my 1:45 PM EDT update if you want to know (in high detail) how this system originated and developed. I can understand this might seem like it "came out of thin air" for those who haven't been watching the tropics lately...


TCFA is a Naval product
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
If that isn't a tropical storm I'll eat crow. Hi, Alberto!

I'm right there with you...I've been saying 100% since 1:45 PM myself!
looks like Alberto may be are 1st landfalling or vary close too land falling TS
136. wxmod
China industrial smog today. MODIS satellite photo. Looks like an ocean. Not.

Quoting hurricane23:


This is correct..Its clearly atleast a TD or a weak TS. If it wasn't for those 20kt westerlies over it this could have very quickly intensified into a hurricane.

Wind shear is supposed to weaken today as the upper level low pulls away.
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like Alberto may be are 1st landfalling or vary close too land falling TS


The last time we had a landfalling US Tropical Storm was Lee in early Sept of last year along the gulf coast. To have that happen during hurricane season is one thing but to have one in May in the "off season" is truly extraordinary.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TAFB at 2.0, tropical


AL 93 201205191745 DVTS 3210N 7780W SAB EG 1515 ///// T DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=1.5 FTBO CON
AL 93 201205191745 DVTS 3220N 7770W TAFB SS 2020 ///// T DT 2.0 BO CURVED BAND

Its about time its "tropical." My rule of thumb for caling something tropical in structure is to run a satellite animation and see anticycloinc cirrus streaming outward from its top. That anticyclonic cirrus indicates a warm core that reaches the storm top.

Why warm? Because an upper anticyclone is a thermal feature from warm air. An upper cyclone (the opposite) is a thermal feature from cold air.
Quoting overwash12:
What is AMM?

Air mass modification
18z SHIPS text:

Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like Alberto may be are 1st landfalling or vary close too land falling TS

Or hurricane.
I think we'll probably see a code red 70-80% shortly and then an upgrade at 5 or 11 PM
If this does develop, which it almost definitely will, it will be yet another huge win for the Euro. It was the only model showing this for over a week when the GFS was massively over-hyping the GOH system....
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z SHIPS text:


I think it is safe to say it could get stronger. Looks like shear was analyzed a tad bit too high.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think we'll probably see a code red 70-80% shortly and then an upgrade at 5 or 11 PM

Why would they bother with the special outlook again? Shouldn't they just go ahead and do the advisory?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think it is safe to say it could get stronger. Looks like shear was analyzed a tad bit too high.
I agree; if upper-level winds were truly in the 35kt+ threshold, 93L would probably not be even close to the shape it is in now.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
If this does develop, which it almost definitely will, it will be yet another huge win for the Euro. It was the only model showing this for over a week when the GFS was massively over-hyping the GOH system....
Yeah can't wait to see what the upgrade will do for it, since we should have had something down there by now, according to it. Wasn't the NOGAPS and CMC also predicting development off the Southeast coast?




I choose 93L
I beleive 93L has a much better chance than 92L of acquiring a name. First of all, the convection has persisted a little longer than with 92L and it is over the waters of the Gulf Stream which are about 80-81F in its present location, much warmer than the waters up in the vicinity of the Azores. Furthermore, one would think the TPC would pay closer attention to this and possibly start to issue advisories since it is much closer to a major landmass, as opposed to 92L. I see Alberto coming on soon. That's just my opinion. What do you guys think?
I think we'll see Alberto at 5 pm EST
Remember these small systems can either go one way or the other.Since 93L is in favorable conditions it could ramp up really quickly.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Why would they bother with the special outlook again? Shouldn't they just go ahead and do the advisory?

They may do that, but I think it's more likely we see another STWO because 93L may not quite be a TS yet
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah can't wait to see what the upgrade will do for it, since we should have had something down there by now, according to it. Wasn't the NOGAPS and CMC also predicting development off the Southeast coast?


NOGAPS was on the Carib system and the CMC was on both.
Good afternoon everyone, so I see we have Invest 93L which looks well on the way to becoming TS Alberto. These small systems sure spin up rather quickly!



Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They may do that, but I think it's more likely we see another STWO because 93L may not quite be a TS yet

I'm 99.9999% positive 93L is a tropical storm right now.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree; if upper-level winds were truly in the 35kt+ threshold, 93L would probably not be even close to the shape it is in now.


This is a tough intensity forecast. Dr. M brought up a good point...a small system like this could rapidly weaken by coughing on the dry air that is adjacent to its southeast...or could easily rapidly intensify under low shear/enhanced outflow beneath its developing warm core anticyclone. Small-sized systems are notorious for rapid development/collapsing....

So (A) it should become Tropical Storm Alberto and then cough...or (B) it should beocme Alberto and then possibly Hurricane Alberto. And don't think May hurricanes in the Atlantic aren't impossible. An extreme example is Hurricane Able in 1951...
If they plan to name it at 5:00 pm, keep your eyes open for a renumber over the next 60-90 minutes.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


This is a tough intensity forecast. Dr. M brought up a good point...a small system like this could rapidly weaken by coughing on the dry air that is adjacent to its southeast...or could easily rapidly intensify under low shear/enhanced outflow beneath its developing warm core anticyclone. Small-sized systems are notorious for rapid development/collapsing....

So (A) it should become Tropical Storm Alberto and then cough...or (B) it should beocme Alberto and then possibly Hurricane Alberto. And don't think May hurricanes in the Atlantic aren't impossible. An extreme example is Hurricane Able in 1951...


All you need to to do Able is move some letters around, add "rto", and you've got a case of deja vu.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm 99.9999% positive 93L is a tropical storm right now.

I wouldn't quite go that far :)

This loop indicates 93L is continuing on a WSW drift... Also it appears convection has weakened a little in the last couple frames, possibly due to D-Min

Link
Quoting lobdelse81:
I beleive 93L has a much better chance than 92L of acquiring a name. First of all, the convection has persisted a little longer than with 92L and it is over the waters of the Gulf Stream which are about 80-81F in its present location, much warmer than the waters up in the vicinity of the Azores. Furthermore, one would think the TPC would pay closer attention to this and possibly start to issue advisories since it is much closer to a major landmass, as opposed to 92L. I see Alberto coming on soon. That's just my opinion. What do you guys think?

While 92L and 93L generally started in life as the same kind of thing....92L never produced convection long enough for a warm core upper anticyclone to form...while 93L has done the opposite. An upper anticyclone indicates vertical warming from the latent heat release of T-storms...and this anticyclone in turn ventilates such that surface pressures drop. 93L is on its way to becoming Alberto any minute now for sure....
Unlike what you would expect with a typical early-season storm, the wind shear acting on 93L is inhibiting convection in the southeast quad, and the strongest bands are in the NW quad, which means the coastline will be affected directly when 93L eventually gets closer to shore.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Convection near to the center of GOH disturbance
Vorticity completely offshore now too.
Quoting Levi32:
Unlike what you would expect with a typical early-season storm, the wind shear acting on 93L is inhibiting convection in the southeast quad, and the strongest bands are in the NW quad, which means the coastline will be affected directly when 93L eventually gets closer to shore.

Hey Levi. Think we'll see Alberto at 5 pm?
Alberto may come today base on the pictures it looks like a TS.
170. MahFL
It's defiantly warm cored now.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree; if upper-level winds were truly in the 35kt+ threshold, 93L would probably not be even close to the shape it is in now.


Hey, 09!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey Levi. Think we'll see Alberto at 5 pm?


You know as well as I do how unpredictable the NHC is in situations like this. I don't know, but the system has had sustained moderate convection for over 12 hours now and likely deserves classification in my opinion.
Really think the NHC is going to wait as long as possible on this one. However, a 45mph Alberto wouldn't shock me later tonight.
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
32.30N/77.97W
Quoting Levi32:


You know as well as I do how unpredictable the NHC is in situations like this. I don't know, but the system has had sustained moderate convection for over 12 hours now and likely deserves classification in my opinion.

It defintely is worth classifying....especially since they named you know who (that starts with a 'J')...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

It defintely is worth classifying....especially since they named you know who (that starts with a 'J')...
LOL don`t start please Jose was worth of a name like this system.
I don't see how they could hold off naming this...

Quoting Grothar:


Hey, 09!

Grothar! It's been way too long man. How's it been?

It ain't official unless it's the full globe though. ;)

93L Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop

..click image for Loop

ZOOM is available

Quoting Grothar:


Hey, 09!

Fat wave!.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't see how they could hold off naming this...



WXGeekVA (assuming your still logged in)...get ready at 5 PM...if they don't name it...you need to post that meme....

"NHC...you no start advisories?!"
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Grothar! It's been way too long man. How's it been?

It ain't official unless it's the full globe though. ;)



We thought you moved to Siberia. Your first day back and we have 93L. See how you are! Welcome back.
invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al012012.ren 19-May-2012 19:20 931
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't see how they could hold off naming this...



Patience. Give them a few minutes. After all, they have to read all of our comments before they can make a determination.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al012012.ren 19-May-2012 19:20 931





AAAAHHHHHH YAAAAA
Quoting Grothar:


Patience. Give them a few minutes. After all, they have to read all of our comments before they can make a determination.


TD 1
93L renumbered! 
invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al012012.ren 19-May-2012 19:20 931
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al012012.ren 19-May-2012 19:20 931


We now have Tropical Storm Alberto!
Quoting weatherh98:





AAAAHHHHHH YAAAAA


They are going to name it?

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesss!.YaHooo!!.
Quoting Grothar:


We thought you moved to Siberia. Your first day back and we have 93L. See how you are! Welcome back.
LOL, first day back and we have *Alberto.

Been doing great, still in Miami hahaa. Just in time for the season.
Very unexpected  (at least for me) 
Convection shifted a bit to the west, leaving the eastern side a bit more dry than earlier. 
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al012012.ren 19-May-2012 19:20 931



ok i wake up too 20% this AM then 50% now we have TD 1 or a TS that was a little un forcasted
93L Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop

..click image for Loop



ALBERTO, AL, L, , , , , 01, 2012, DB, O, 2012051912, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL012012
We now have Alberto, our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season!
Happy cane season! It can now start ahead of schedule
T.C.F.A.
01L/TD/A/CX
MARK
32.30N/77.97W
Alberto's first advisory will consist of 45mph winds and a pressure of 1007mb.

AL, 01, 2012051918, , BEST, 0, 323N, 776W, 40, 1007, TS,
The hurricane season has started...the hurricane season has started!!!

Al-bert-to...Al-bert-to...Al-bert-to...Al-bert-to ...Al-bert-to...Al-bert-to...Al-bert-to...Al-bert- to...Al-bert-to...Al-bert-to...
Looks like we have a 45 mph Tropical Storm on our hands. Hi Alberto.

Look for TS advisories to go up along the East Coast.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al012012.ren 19-May-2012 19:20 931




WE HAVE ALBERTO!!!!!!!
Tropical Storm Alberto!

1-0-0.


This is the first named pre-season storm since May 31st, 2008 with Tropical Storm Arthur.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alberto's first advisory will consist of 45mph winds and a pressure of 1007mb.

AL, 01, 2012051918, , BEST, 0, 323N, 776W, 40, 1007, TS,
All we are missing now is a pinhole eye....wait wait I THINK! Nope. Sry smudge on my screen.
Hello, Alberto!!! =D
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for 01L(renumbered93L) ??? The renumbering has not been accompanied by a declaration of a TropicalDepression or a TropicalStorm
32.6n77.3w has been re-evaluated&altered
32.5n77.3w, 32.3n77.6w are now the newest positions
The accompanying MaximumSustainedWinds have been re-evaluated&altered
from 32.6n77.3w's 30knots to 32.5n77.3w's 35knots

Invest01L's vector has changed from SSW at ~3.7mph(8k/h) to SW at ~3.2mph(6k/h)
Its MaxSusWinds have increased from ~35knots(40mph)65k/h to ~40knots(46mph)74k/h
And its minimum pressure has decreased from 1009millibars to 1007millibars
For those who like to visually track 01L's path...

The northeasternmost dot on the connected lines was 01L's initial position from the ATCF
The southwesternmost dot on the connected lines was 01L's most recent position
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida , SVN is Savannah,Georgia , GGE is Georgetown,SouthCarolina

Copy&paste jax, ssi, 08ga, svn, hhh, bft, kjzi, gge, 33.4n76.4w-33.3n76.6w, 33.3n76.6w-33.1n76.8w, 33.1n76.8w-32.9n77.1w, 32.9n77.1w-32.5n77.3w, 32.5n77.3w-32.3n77.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.
Quoting Grothar:


Patience. Give them a few minutes. After all, they have to read all of our comments before they can make a determination.
lol
Alberto!!! happy to see you our first name storm and has the same strength as Aletta iun terms of wind.
WTF?
I that "Invest 01" actually a euphemism for "TS Alberto"?


Tropical Storm Alberto.
This is a leap year...And something always bad happens in a leap year...BTW...This could have at least a 30 percent chance at a run for hurricane status..
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Tropical Storm Alberto.
Maybe Ill get lucky and see the out-most of the bands. Currently in Athens.
Quoting wxgeek723:
WTF?

That sums it up nicely. This disturbance was not even there last night.
i see they name 93L but not 92L
And so begins... Atlantic Hurricane Season 2012!!!
45,000 ft tops popping with Alberto. 
invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al012012.ren with 40 knots speed.

Congratulations, Alberto, and welcome to the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season!
92E looks a little better



Looks like Alberto wanted to be the only storm in 2012 to wish Bill Read a happy retirement!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
45,000 ft tops popping with Alberto. 
Would be interesting to see this become a hurricane. Not likely but it would be interesting. Seeing how this whole system came to fruition with little to no warning.
I see I ended my MP game of Civilization 5 right in time to start the Alberto welcome party!

Quite interested in the intensity forecast the NHC will put out at 5pm for Alberto. In any rate, Welcome to the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season and 13 days ahead of schedule.
Good afternoon

From the Ascat pass this morning Alberto did not appear to have a closed low but there were 40 knot wind barbs. Did they send a plane out there ?.

i no we olny have 13 days lift in may but any more ch of a name storm ???
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

From the Ascat pass this morning Alberto did not appear to have a closed low but there were 40 knot wind barbs. Did they send a plane out there ?.




nop they did not send a plane
For anyone who is looking for links such as satellite imagery, computer models, radars, etc. to track 93L/Alberto and the rest tropics this hurricane season, check out this site:

Link

Also, we still have that eyelike feature with Alberto:

Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

From the Ascat pass this morning Alberto did not appear to have a closed low but there were 40 knot wind barbs. Did they send a plane out there ?.



Nope they never did... it came in such short notice!
Aletta - May 14th (1 day before season start)
Alberto - May 19th (13 days before season start)

Wow. We got both a preseason storm in the ATL and in the EPac.
One side of me is saying
YES!! THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON
And another is
Oh boy, that came out of no where.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

From the Ascat pass this morning Alberto did not appear to have a closed low but there were 40 knot wind barbs. Did they send a plane out there ?.



It became apparent on satellite that Alberto had separated from the trough and had attained warm core characteristics is my guess.
Quoting yqt1001:
Aletta - May 14th (1 day before season start)
Alberto - May 19th (13 days before season start)

Wow. We got both a preseason storm in the ATL and in the EPac.


Has there ever been a season with both a pre-season tropical storm in the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Would be interesting to see this become a hurricane. Not likely but it would be interesting. Seeing how this whole system came to fruition with little to no warning.


Brings to mind that other Berto. They can spin up quickly. And I think he has more time over water than Humberto did. Interesting start already whatever the case. :)
Quoting Tazmanian:



nop they did not send a plane


Well, the circulation was certainly open to the South East this morning but they may have other data, such as ship reports, to satisfy themselves that it has since closed off. It will be interesting to read the first advisory to see if the proximity to the coast coupled with the intensity prompted the upgrade nothwithstanding that it may not have closed off completely.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


It became apparent on satellite that Alberto had separated from the trough and had attained warm core characteristics is my guess.


It's near land. That usually pressures the NHC more to name a system.
Quoting yqt1001:
Aletta - May 14th (1 day before season start)
Alberto - May 19th (13 days before season start)

Wow. We got both a preseason storm in the ATL and in the EPac.
Is that some sort of record or something....
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Has there ever been a season with both a pre-season tropical storm in the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific?


Nope! Maybe if you include the CPac though.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


2008 
Alma and Arthur 


EPac season starts May 15th. Alma formed May 30th.

Quoting yqt1001:


EPac season starts May 15th. Alma formed May 30th.
Ah, yes. 
Thanks. 
Quoting WxGeekVA:


It became apparent on satellite that Alberto had separated from the trough and had attained warm core characteristics is my guess.


Yes, but an open low would not merit classification for those reasons. The infamous Dolly that passed through the Caribbean a few years ago had winds of about 50 MPH but no closed low and took forever to get classified. In fact, even when the low opened up afterward advisories were still maintained as a TS due to the intensity.
Quoting yqt1001:


It's near land. That usually pressures the NHC more to name a system.


Either way we still have a storm!!!
ALBERTO! I wonder where the system will move starting from now....
Does anyone know how fast this is going?
Fun fact for today:

I went through the Wunderground data base and found the last time we had a hurricane before June 1 was in 1970 with Hurricane Alma: Link

So that may be a record Alberto has a small shot at breaking.
so they name 93L but not 92L
Wow, I make a quick Whataburger run and then there is a tropical storm when I come back!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that some sort of record or something....
no but it could be an omen
Quoting Hurricane1216:
ALBERTO! I wonder where the system will move starting from now....


South Westerly motion for the time being it would seem

Quoting Tazmanian:
so they name 93L but not 92L

92L was unable to produce consistent convection. 93L was able to. That's why 93L got named and 92L didn't.
Wonder when the "pinhole eye" will show up?
Quoting kmanislander:


South Westerly motion for the time being it would seem

i think a circle dance would be in order system will quasi around its self
..were so sorry, Uncle Alberto, but we haven't done a Bloody thing all day"..

Quoting WxGeekVA:
Wonder when the "pinhole eye" will show up?
Shortly my friend....shortly...
How rare is a Mid May Atlantic Tropical Storm? (May 10-20)
The last named storm that occured before this date was Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea in 2007.
The last truly tropical storm in the Atlantic that formed on or before this date was Ana in April 2003.

The last ATLANTIC OCEAN named HURRICANE was Hurricane Alma in 1967
On satellite, I'm seeing dat pinhole eye.
I also believe that it is moving southwest.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Shortly my friend....shortly...
Love your avatar.
Quoting kmanislander:


Well, the circulation was certainly open to the South East this morning but they may have other data, such as ship reports, to satisfy themselves that it has since closed off. It will be interesting to read the first advisory to see if the proximity to the coast coupled with the intensity prompted the upgrade nothwithstanding that it may not have closed off completely.


ATCF FIX file indicated NHC did a Ambiguity Analysis of the ASCAT pass, in which they may have determined the circulation was closed. Sometimes the automatic directional algorithm gets it "wrong" and a manual analysis can determine the correct direction.

AL 93 201205191533 30 ASCT CIR 3230N 7750W 2 39 2 2 34 NEQ 45 0 30 40 2 NHC MJB ASCT 34 NEQ 45 0 30 40 0 0 0 0 2 PBO AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
Quoting yqt1001:
Aletta - May 14th (1 day before season start)
Alberto - May 19th (13 days before season start)

Wow. We got both a preseason storm in the ATL and in the EPac.


Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that some sort of record or something....



First time since 1992 ...ie 20 years... when the EP had a January Hurricane and March TS... the Atlantic had an unnamed SST in April.

There were also two instances in which a hurricane formed in the EP and a TD in the Atlantic (1990, and 1922)

But otherwise, this seems to be the first time that both basins had purely tropical storms... from what I gather, Alberto should be a tropical storm at the 5PM.

EP Off-season storms
Atlantic Off-season storms

So.. first record of the season??

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop

...click image for Loop

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i think a circle dance would be in order system will quasi around its self


The GFS does show it doing a Fujiwara swing around the other low to its North.
Quoting ricderr:
GOOD TO SEE ALL THE WEATHER-WEENIES HERE. NOW FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST - SPRINKLE-BOTTOM
you seem to be the only ass so far to do such a thing
It also appears we have our first official troll of the season too... Now we can really get cooking with gasoline!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


ATCF FIX file indicated NHC did a Ambiguity Analysis of the ASCAT pass, in which they may have determined the circulation was closed. Sometimes the automatic directional algorithm gets it "wrong" and a manual analysis can determine the correct direction.

AL 93 201205191533 30 ASCT CIR 3230N 7750W 2 39 2 2 34 NEQ 45 0 30 40 2 NHC MJB ASCT 34 NEQ 45 0 30 40 0 0 0 0 2 PBO AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS


Ah, thanks so much for that. I had not looked at the file.
Quoting allancalderini:
Love your avatar.
Thanks.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Quoting yqt1001:
Aletta - May 14th (1 day before season start)
Alberto - May 19th (13 days before season start)

Wow. We got both a preseason storm in the ATL and in the EPac.





First time since 1992 ...ie 20 years... when the EP had a January Hurricane and March TS... the Atlantic had an unnamed SST in April.

There were also two instances in which a hurricane formed in the EP and a TD in the Atlantic (1990, and 1922)

But otherwise, this seems to be the first time that both basins had purely tropical storms... from what I gather, Alberto should be a tropical storm at the 5PM.

EP Off-season storms
Atlantic Off-season storms
Thanks for the facts.
delete
Quoting kmanislander:


The GFS does show it doing a Fujiwara swing around the other low to its North.
i think the concearn is the stationary nature of the system we will see after sunset i guess if it can maintain and increase convective coverage
Hurricane season doesn't start until I tell it to...









Let the season begin!!!
Well isn't this swell here in Charleston....

Just moved into my new house three days ago and we now have TS Alberto lingering right off our coast.

Go away Alberto.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you seem to be the only ass so far to do such a thing


Don't quote him please... Just flag and ignore.
Quoting Ameister12:

92L was unable to produce consistent convection. 93L was able to. That's why 93L got named and 92L didn't.



oh ok thanks
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FLC085-093-111-192015-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120519T2015Z/
ST. LUCIE-OKEECHOBEE-MARTIN-
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MARTIN...SOUTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHWESTERN ST.
LUCIE COUNTIES...

AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF TAYLOR
CREEK...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKEECHOBEE CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

&&

LAT...LON 2709 8067 2710 8067 2718 8075 2720 8079
2724 8079 2731 8070 2719 8054 2708 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 312DEG 10KT 2720 8073

$$


KELLY
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i think the concearn is the stationary nature of the system we will see after sunset i guess if it can maintain and increase convective coverage


The gulf stream should provide all the energy it needs to organise some more IMO.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
All we are missing now is a pinhole eye....wait wait I THINK! Nope. Sry smudge on my screen.


I think I see a eye!!


But seriously, It's amazing how quick this has formed since last night. I posted about it last night and noted the weak circulation but shear rapidly dropping due to being at the center of an upper level low. Amazingly, NHC did not declare it "subtropical".
Quoting ChuckNorris:
Hurricane season doesn't start until I tell it to...









Let the season begin!!!



And so starts my season of spending time on the blog!!!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Don't quote him please... Just flag and ignore.
i plus em why because he just won contest of the season
first
Quoting yqt1001:
I see I ended my MP game of Civilization 5 right in time to start the Alberto welcome party!



The gale center to the northeast of Alberto intrigues me. It looks even more organized than Alberto, but is just lacking convection. Presumably, due to cool water and shear.
Quoting nash28:
Well isn't this swell here in Charleston....

Just moved into my new house three days ago and we now have TS Alberto lingering right off our coast.

Go away Alberto.
hello nash of all the luck i hope its the only one for ya
And the blog explodes. :D
Quoting ChuckNorris:
Hurricane season doesn't start until I tell it to...









Let the season begin!!!


He has spoken. It is now official due to the declaration of Chuck Norris.
I am predicting a high end tropical storm or low end hurricane.


Shear has lessened a bit.
Quoting winter123:


The gale center to the northeast of Alberto intrigues me. It looks even more organized than Alberto, but is just lacking convection. Presumably, due to cool water and shear.


Here is the GFS solution to the two systems. The "green" low is Alberto while the low closest to the coast is that gale center that comes down to the SW and forces Alberto to loop around to the East of it

funny how some things work
and true colours show
on with the show
Quoting Slamguitar:
And the blog explodes. :D


I think that is true this time! After all of the false alarms, the blog is now in 2nd gear.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I think that is true this time! After all of the false alarms, the blog is now in 2nd gear.
What about 3?.
Quoting winter123:


The gale center to the northeast of Alberto intrigues me. It looks even more organized than Alberto, but is just lacking convection. Presumably, due to cool water and shear.


It's sitting in the gulf stream, what "cooler" waters are you finding? Shear is on the decreasing trend too as the low to its NE pulls away.
Back later
Quoting ricderr:
GOOD TO SEE ALL THE WEATHER-WEENIES HERE. NOW FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST -

INVEST 93, SOON TO BE MAJOR HURRICANE ALBERTO WILL FORM IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AT WHICH POINT IT WILL MOVE SOUTH EAST ACROSS FLORIDA COMPLETELY WIPING OUT TAMPA WHICH MANY THERE, FEELING LEFT OUT FROM THE 2004 AND 2005 HURRICANES HAVE BEEN HOPING FOR A HURRICANE, AFTER ENTERING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE WARM WATERS WILL SUPERHEAT THIS STROM AND AT A CAT 6 MAGNITUDE IT WILL HIT NEW ORLEANS WHICH OF COURSE ALL GOM HURRICANES DO. ANYONE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES SHOULD IMMEDIATELY BOARD UP THEIR HOMES AND EVACUATE THE COUNTRY.

SPRINKLE-BOTTOM


Grow up. Need I say anymore?
Quoting tropicfreak:


It's sitting in the gulf stream, what "cooler" waters are you finding? Shear is on the decreasing trend too as the low to its NE pulls away.


Read my post again. I was talking about the "low to its northeast." :)
According to what kman posted, that low is going nowhere, and may actually move south to interact with Alberto. Models have a terrible time handling situations like this.
Quoting Patrap:


Showing the high hot towers in great detail! Thanks pat!
Quoting washingtonian115:
What about 3?.


3rd would be a hurricane
4th would be any US landfalling system
5th would be a major hurricane
6th would be a US landfalling major hurricane
7th would be a Katrina Part 2, Andrew part 2, or a worse Irene.
Quoting kmanislander:
Back later
later kman
Considering Alberto has winds of 40kts at the moment, and still has another 48-60 hours for intensification before major impeding factors begin to act upon it, I could definitely see it* brushing 60-70kt winds.
Ahhhhhhh trolls!.Hilarious fellows aren't they.
93L Long Floater - JSL Color Imagery Loop

..click image for Loop





What a great treat for me to track on my day off. Dmax will be interesting to say the least.

shear has dropped on our GOH low should drop further through tonight

also the upper level anticyclone has moved N on these maps

0900


1200


1800
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Considering Alberto has winds of 40kts at the moment, and still has another 48-60 hours for intensification before major impeding factors begin to act upon it, I could definitely see if brushing 60-70kt winds.

Agree completely.
Quoting winter123:


Read my post again. I was talking about the "low to its northeast." :)
According to what kman posted, that low is going nowhere, and may actually move south to interact with Alberto. Models have a terrible time handling situations like this.


I know what you mean by "gale". Kman said that the models showed the gale moving SW. Not buying into this yet. They barely recognize the system because it's so small.
Most of 01L's inflow is coming off the Gulf Stream from the north, but inflow is lacking in the SE quad due to a low pressure area developing to the southeast of the storm, as well as the lack of convection in that quadrant. It remains to be seen whether the environment will actually support an intensification of the circulation. So far, it appears to have maintained the current level of intensity for the last 6 hours, but not intensified yet.

Quoting HurrikanEB:
Quoting yqt1001:
Aletta - May 14th (1 day before season start)
Alberto - May 19th (13 days before season start)

Wow. We got both a preseason storm in the ATL and in the EPac.





First time since 1992 ...ie 20 years... when the EP had a January Hurricane and March TS... the Atlantic had an unnamed SST in April.

There were also two instances in which a hurricane formed in the EP and a TD in the Atlantic (1990, and 1922)

But otherwise, this seems to be the first time that both basins had purely tropical storms... from what I gather, Alberto should be a tropical storm at the 5PM.

EP Off-season storms
Atlantic Off-season storms

So.. first record of the season??


Plus, the storms you mentioned in January and march 1992 were actually under the Central Pacific area of responsibility. They were in the western hemisphere, though. So it's arguable.
Link
Time to start paying attention I guess. That was quick
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Agree completely.


I think the proximity to land and the not incredibly warm SSTs will prevent Alberto from attaining hurricane status. It'll be close I think though, 65MPH sounds like a good peak.
I leave the blog and Alberto forms. Wonder what happens when I stay in the blog...
I am going to put out a full discussion on my blog at around 6 to 6:30 PM....

For those that follow my blog...I am doing a new type comprehesnive full discussion like this one that covers all corners of the Atlantic basin. Any feedback when I put these out can help improve them so that hopefully bloggers and luerkers alike can understand....
Where will this storm make a landfall?
using the sat loops high density wing high level it show the upper level anticyclone now over central honduras
850mb:


700mb:


500mb:

Quoting WxGeekVA:


I think the proximity to land and the not incredibly warm SSTs will prevent Alberto from attaining hurricane status. It'll be close I think though, 65MPH sounds like a good peak.


Agreed... but then again in 25°C waters of the gulf stream, you just may never know.
Brunswick County Airport
Lat: 33.93 Lon: -78.07 Elev: 26
Last Update on May 19, 4:15 pm EDT


Partly Cloudy

99 °F
(37 °C) Humidity: 80 %
Wind Speed: E 9 MPH
Barometer: 30.01"
Dewpoint: 91 °F (33 °C)
Heat Index: 153 °F (67 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


Now I know why there is a TS off North Carolina!
Will they evacuate the coast region?
Time to F5 the living daylights out of the NHC site.

Though, don't be surprised if the advisory is delayed somewhat to get warnings up.
To completely discourage my previous post, lower-level outflow boundaries can be seen in the eastern and southeastern quadrants of the cyclone indicating collapsing updrafts (downdrafts) which in turn indicate dying convective activity. Alberto may not look too pretty in a few hours should this trend continue.

Quoting fmhurricane2009:
Brunswick County Airport
Lat: 33.93 Lon: -78.07 Elev: 26
Last Update on May 19, 4:15 pm EDT


Partly Cloudy

99 °F
(37 °C) Humidity: 80 %
Wind Speed: E 9 MPH
Barometer: 30.01"
Dewpoint: 91 °F (33 °C)
Heat Index: 153 °F (67 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


Now I know why there is a TS off North Carolina!

It is no where near that warm anywhere near here.


And Alberto is up on the Navy page!
You just have to click on 93L first before it shows up though
Quoting TuMama:
Will they evacuate the coast region?



NO
It is worth remembering that Alberto is over SSTs of only 26C, and only within the thin tongue of the Gulf Stream. Near the coastline SSTs decline to 23C. This alone may keep intensification down to a minimum.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is no where near that warm anywhere near here.


I know... it is a malfunction by the NWS for your area... type in Southport, NC. I'm not making it up!
000
WTNT21 KNHC 192034
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
2100 UTC SAT MAY 19 2012

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 77.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.9N 78.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.9N 78.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 77.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
in regards to Alberto:
Wind probabilities out. No strengthening expected.
Quoting TuMama:
Where will this storm make a landfall?

It should meander erratically off the Carolina coast thru the weekend...then accelerate NNE on Monday. Depending on exactly where the center is during its NNE acceleration...it could parallel the shore or make landfall on the North Carolina outer Banks...
Good Evening... well that was quick. Alberto already.
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
2100 UTC SAT MAY 19 2012

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 77.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.9N 78.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.9N 78.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 77.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Deleted for multiple posts with Forecast Advisory.
And now, for me to write a new blog on Alberto!
(NHC)ATCF data for 01L(renumbered93L)
The renumbering has not been accompanied by a declaration of a TropicalDepression or a TropicalStorm by either the NationalHurricaneCenter or on the NHC-controlled ATCF
Already posted. =P
Here's a 2-day loop of 92L (entire atlantic view), so we may compare. It is the blob just south of the Azores, even smaller than Alberto. It may have been a subtropical storm for a very short amount of time, before being sheared apart.
Link

9% chance it makes Cat 1 at 72 hours!
Quoting TuMama:
Will they evacuate the coast region?


No, not for a mid to low-end tropical storm. Also, it does not appear that landfall will occur at this point. It may at some point brush the NC Outer Banks. I wouldn't mind seeing it affect E. Central FL as a gusty rainstorm though; so close, yet unlikely, as with almost all tropical cyclones off the SE US Coast north of the Bahamas.
Tropical storm watch for a bit of LI?

347. SLU
In 2000, Alberto didn't come until August 3rd. So we are far head of that season. Also I wonder if the hurricane forecasts for this year will be increased given this unexpected early formation of Alberto in mid-May.
If I was in NC/SC I would evacuate because rip currents kill people all the time.
8% of cat 2 in 72hrs


350. LBAR
Alberto: 45mph winds on 1st advisory
Quoting WxGeekVA:

9% chance it makes Cat 1 at 72 hours!

WOW!
:P
Quoting TuMama:
Will they evacuate the coast region?

Its not likely there will be evacuations with Alberto not expected to be a strong hurricane...
Quoting yqt1001:
Expect TS advisories to go up for SC and NC.
Here in Charleston, the effects, so far are minimal. Overcast, light breeze. Tomorrow???
Quoting aspectre:
(NHC)ATCF data for 01L(renumbered93L)
The renumbering has not been accompanied by a declaration of a TropicalDepression or a TropicalStorm by either the NationalHurricaneCenter or on the NHC-controlled ATCF


Your link is to ep92
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

WOW!
:P

Ophelia had a 2% chance of becoming a Cat 4. 9% isn't all that low.
Quoting fmhurricane2009:
Brunswick County Airport
Lat: 33.93 Lon: -78.07 Elev: 26
Last Update on May 19, 4:15 pm EDT


Partly Cloudy

99 °F
(37 °C) Humidity: 80 %
Wind Speed: E 9 MPH
Barometer: 30.01"
Dewpoint: 91 °F (33 °C)
Heat Index: 153 °F (67 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


Now I know why there is a TS off North Carolina!


ummm, Im like 25 miles from there in North Myrtle Beach SC and it 73 here
Quoting seafarer459:
Here in Charleston, the effects, so far are minimal. Overcast, light breeze. Tomorrow???


Not likely too much for us to be concerned with. Breezy conditions with some possible squally weather. Not expected to make a landfall here. Just depends on how close it gets to the coast before the NNE jaunt.
Quoting yqt1001:
Tropical storm watch for a bit of LI?

Yeah, I don't understand that either.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 192042
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 77.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A SLOW
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS.
Quoting yqt1001:
Tropical storm warning for a bit of LI?



What's with the TS Watch over NYC?
Press is gonna love this part:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
Quoting tropicfreak:


What's with the TS Watch over NYC? Anyone notice that?


I'm thinking that might be a mistake.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 192042
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...AND
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM AN AIRMASS
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 33N. BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 1530 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
ALBERTO IS SITUATED IN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH A MARKEDLY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN ON RADAR...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/03. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...AS
ALBERTO IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN A BROAD
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N/72W. AS THAT LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AND WEAKENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE STEERING FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF ALBERTO AND THE
COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD...BOTH IN TERMS OF
HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST ALBERTO WILL MOVE...AND HOW SHARP THE TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL BE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS OF VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.

ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 32.2N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 31.9N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 31.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 31.9N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 34.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting TuMama:
Will they evacuate the coast region?
Not likely at all. At least for New Hanover, Brunswick, and Pender counties. They might cancel school depending on how close it comes to the coast.
Quoting tropicfreak:


What's with the TS Watch over NYC? Anyone notice that?
That is most likely an error. I'm not seeing anything in the public advisory by NOAA that says any watches/warnings have been issued.
**TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO**
(Click to enlarge)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Its not likely there will be evacuations with Alberto not expected to be a strong hurricane...


They may give you a choice whether to evacuate or not (not mandatory) if it becomes strong but I don't think it will become that bad unless it becomes a cat 1.
373. j2008
Welcome Alberto it is good to finally have you join us.
Uhhh...you sure?

"THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS."
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Press is gonna love this part:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.


LOL!!!! Yep..Press is gonna have a field day with this. I am just glad I got my deep sea fishing trip out of the way LAST Saturday instead of today like we originally had planned. Was 15 miles off Calabash, NC.
AL012012 - Tropical Storm

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

377. maeko
Quoting nash28:


Not likely too much for us to be concerned with. Breezy conditions with some possible squally weather. Not expected to make a landfall here. Just depends on how close it gets to the coast before the NNE jaunt.


Chucktown here as well. Didn't expect to be checking the board THIS early! I'm on a FEMA assessment team so I guess I'm now on standby. The EOC must be scrambling because there was no bulletin as of Friday. The weather seemed a little 'tropical' but no body said anything about it.
@ Nash. I always take a wait and see attitude. Having said that. This is weather, and weather has a mind of it's own. so' I'll just wait and see. Besides we could still use some rain. So bring it on.
Haha Welcome Alberto....... Who thiks Alberto will get above 60mph?
Quoting maeko:


Chucktown here as well. Didn't expect to be checking the board THIS early! I'm on a FEMA assessment team so I guess I'm now on standby. The EOC must be scrambling because there was no bulletin as of Friday. The weather seemed a little 'tropical' but no body said anything about it.


Yeah. This pretty much came out of nowhere. I am expecting some sort of ops mtg to be called here at Boeing especially if we are tropically warned.
ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS.

I know everyone is all excited about Alberto today, but there's some fun cookin for Kansas here too...

D0 67 dBZ 37,000 ft. 71 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.50 in. 25 knots WSW (240)

@ Tu Mamma. Point well taken. I would rather swim with sharks, than swim against a rip current.
Quoting maeko:


Chucktown here as well. Didn't expect to be checking the board THIS early! I'm on a FEMA assessment team so I guess I'm now on standby. The EOC must be scrambling because there was no bulletin as of Friday. The weather seemed a little 'tropical' but no body said anything about it.


I'm pretty sure this caught every EMA off guard.
FWIW, apparently my weather blog is featured on a news website for Alberto in Georgetown SC.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

WOW!
:P
You're back!
"Faaaaaaat Alberto!"

And...we're off!
Its real..sniffle ...cry...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, apparently my weather blog is featured on a news website for Alberto in Georgetown SC.


Got a link?
390. j2008
92E starting to wrap its new explosions of convection around its center, if this continues look for 30-40% at next update and possibly a code red by tomorrow morning. I'm thinking Alberto might sit off the coast for a few days, if he does then we may see him get to about 60 MPH by monday maybe.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uhhh...you sure?

"THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS."


Yeah not sure I get that, there have been many others.
Here's my new blog entry, as promised!

ALBERTOOOOOO!!!!!!
393. maeko
Quoting nash28:


Yeah. This pretty much came out of nowhere. I am expecting some sort of ops mtg to be called here at Boeing especially if we are tropically warned.


yeppers, go ahead and lace up your boots! the calls will start within the hour. Talk about getting caught with our pants down LoL!
394. wxmod
These are satellite photos of something taking place in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean way away from land. The top photo is from May 11 when a smoggy area was first noticeable in the exact location. Since then a green blob has been expanding under the clouds. The bottom three photos are from today. MODIS satellite photos.







Quoting seafarer459:


Got a link?


Well, apparently it's a facebook page. I felt honored for a bit there!
Link
Alberto looks a little bit of a wild card. Lot of influencing factors..To the NE there is a second low that should push Alberto SE parallel to the coast slowly for now. Could get pushed into Jacksonville like Geos-5 suggests, by a 3rd low not hardly formed yet, that gets some forward momentum going for Alberto. Most the models have it tangle with the trough over Cuba/FL/Bahamas, slowing it enough that it loops back to the north & threatens The Outer Banks on his way out to sea. It's small so maybe easily pushed around by some of the other factors but really gaining some spin on the curve of the land & some of it's fading baroclinic nature. Small storms can intensify faster..

Quoting wxmod:
These are satellite photos of something taking place in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean way away from land. The top photo is from May 11 when a smoggy area was first noticeable in the exact location. Since then a green blob has been expanding under the clouds. The bottom three photos are from today. MODIS satellite photos.









Now is the time to stop with the conspiracy nonsense and focus on tropical weather or risk a ban...
399. maeko
Quoting MrstormX:


I'm pretty sure this caught every EMA off guard.


No kidding! I feel like I just had cold water dumped on my head! Ha!
The circulation that spawned Alberto actually has a pretty long history. Here it is dropping through texas and across the gulf coast (May 15-May 17)
Link

Here it is moving off the the SC coast and stalling when it hits the front.
Link
Quoting WxGeekVA:

Becoming better defined.
Quoting nash28:


Yeah. This pretty much came out of nowhere. I am expecting some sort of ops mtg to be called here at Boeing especially if we are tropically warned.


Sensible weather here in Charleston will not change much from what we have here right now. I'm just going with slight chance POPs here for us overnight, little better chance tomorrow. Still a lot of subsidence here over eastern SC. Bulk of rain will remain well offshore.
Well I see we have Alberto! Let the games begin!



Time to celebrate......music style!


405. MahFL
Quoting TuMama:
Where will this storm make a landfall?


No where.
Quoting wxmod:
These are satellite photos of something taking place in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean way away from land. The top photo is from May 11 when a smoggy area was first noticeable in the exact location. Since then a green blob has been expanding under the clouds. The bottom three photos are from today. MODIS satellite photos.









Interesting, thank you.
Do we believe the LGEM (very good intensity model) or the bulk of the models?

408. wxmod
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Now is the time to stop with the conspiracy nonsense and focus on tropical weather or risk a ban...


Nobody mentioned a conspiracy. This is probably a volcanic area causing an algae bloom.
You certainly have a one track mind, don't you?
read post 366 looks like he's right

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uhhh...you sure?

"THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS."
Quoting MahFL:


No where.

It may skirt the Carolina coasts... Probably a 30-40% chance it makes an official landfall
Quoting MahFL:


No where.

We don't know that. About half of Alberto's cone includes North Carolina.
Quoting WxGeekVA:

Its a one eyed monster! O_o
Quoting wxmod:


Nobody mentioned a conspiracy. This is probably a volcanic area causing an algae bloom.
You certainly have a one track mind, don't you?


Well most of your posts are about weather modification and how the government is controlling the climate, so...

Anyway, back to actual weather. Anyone have any ideas on what is causing the eye feature on radar?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We don't know that. About half of Alberto's cone includes North Carolina.

And even part of MD, DE and NJ.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Do we believe the LGEM (very good intensity model) or the bulk of the models?



Models have not done a good job picking up Alberto/93L, with it being in the gulf stream I believe LGEM sounds reasonable.
I was going to make a joke about naming every blob, but then I looked at the radar, and this little sucker is very well defined and may even be stronger than the official stats...

Alberto in may...We're off to an early start.
Quoting floridastorm:



Time to celebrate......music style!



Very rarely do people post videos that are relevant to weather. Thanks! I like this song!
Alberto is here. Fisrst storm of the 2012 season. Let the games begin!
Wonder if they'll cancel school here.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well most of your posts are about weather modification and how the government is controlling the climate, so...

Anyway, back to actual weather. Anyone have any ideas on what is causing the eye feature on radar?



Its called an anticyclone:)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wonder if they'll cancel school here.



IM OUT SUCKAA
I wonder if the U.S can go without a major hurricane this year...Umm post 422 Bonnie in 2010 made a direct landfall with Florida.


This may not turn out true
Quoting weatherh98:


Its called an anticyclone:)
You miss spelled Pin-hole eye.
Trolls just get worse and worse, We need some more crow
Quoting washingtonian115:
I wonder if the U.S can go without a major hurricane this year...
florida will thats for sure theres been a huge force field around florida for 8 years now
Just got off phone with Presslord on a Boat their moving offshore below the Storm in the Atlantic .


Hes sending me a pic of the Storm from his perspective.
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for 92E
11.0n100.0w, 11.0n99.6w has been re-evaluated&altered
11.2n100.0w, 11.3n99.5w, 11.3n99.0w are now the new positions

Invest92E's vector has changed from ENE at ~5mph(9.3k/h) to East at ~4.9mph(9.2k/h)
Its MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady at ~25knots(29mph)46k/h
And its minimum pressure has held steady at 1006millibars
For those who like to visually track 92E's path...

The northernmost dot on the connected lines was 92E's position as of 48hours ago
The dot on the the other end of the connected lines is 92E's most recent position
LZC is LazaroCardenas, ZIH is Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo, ACA is Acapulco,
HUX is Huatulco, IZT is Ixtepec, and MTT is Minatitlan,

Copy&paste lzc, zih, aca, hux, izt, mtt, 11.6n100.0w-11.3n100.6w, 11.3n100.6w-11.2n100.6w, 11.2n100.6w-11.0n100.6w, 11.0n100.6w-10.8n100.5w, 10.8n100.5w-11.0n100.3w, 11.0n100.3w-11.2n100.0w, 11.2n100.0w-11.3n99.5w, 11.3n99.5w-11.3n99.0w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
I am going to bet Alberto dies in the next 24 hours. I just don't think it will last that much longer.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I wonder if the U.S can go without a major hurricane this year...

We're on borrowed time right now... We are wayyyyyyyy overdue... Personally though I don't think this is the year... I think we could be threatened by some home grown Cat 1's or maybe even a Cat 2 but I don't think we see anything above that
Quoting floridastorm:



Time to celebrate......music style!




Love it, love it, love it!
Quoting weatherh98:


This may not turn out true

Yeah, I just don't see it staying at the same intensity for so long.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You miss spelled Pin-hole eye.


LOL
Speaking of pinhole eye....

Quoting BADFORCASTAGAIN:
here we go already..... alberto is the first of all the storms this year that will not hit florida..... this will be the 8th year in a row of nothing in florida.... doesnt matter where they develop they will all move away from florida the force field is still up


I know, right.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I just don't see it staying at the same intensity for so long.


I think peak at 60 within the next 36 hours before it weakens
Quoting BADFORCASTAGAIN:
here we go already..... alberto is the first of all the storms this year that will not hit florida..... this will be the 8th year in a row of nothing in florida.... doesnt matter where they develop they will all move away from florida the force field is still up


You kinda contradicted yourself.
Quoting weatherh98:


This may not turn out true

See we have Alberto. Thinking itll peak around 60-65 mph winds.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Speaking of pinhole eye....



RI
EWRC
CAT5CANE

AWeee yaaa

PINHOLE:)
nope no warnings for anyone yet
looks like they arnt expecting much from this?


Quoting weatherh98:


This may not turn out true

Alberto is definitely going to be hard to forecast intensity wise... I say a peak of 50-55 is likely
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We're on borrowed time right now... We are wayyyyyyyy overdue... Personally though I don't think this is the year... I think we could be threatened by some home grown Cat 1's or maybe even a Cat 2 but I don't think we see anything above that
Well this year is looking to be a homegrown year.And we could have some quick spin up storms like Alberto for example with the perfect conditions and could "bomb" out...
I am so glad this is supposed to be a season with fewer storms in it...

Anyways. This seems to have gotten the blog moving again.
448. j2008
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Moving true SW and maintaining convection. Love it, anybody know if any news outlets are pushing the panic/doom button yet?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Seems like it lost some convection a little earlier today but is now redevloping... It should be aided tonight when D-Max arrives
Thanks Dr. Masters ..beautiful day over here in Wilmington..looks like things are about to change though
hey guys I think we may see 94L and maybe TD2 in the next comeing days
Quoting tropicfreak:


You kinda contradicted yourself.


I think the op meant nothing of any major consequence for Florida, especially wind-wise. Bonnie in 2010 was basically a non-event. Fay in 2008 caused major flooding in some areas. I am pretty sure there has not been a tropical cyclone since Wilma in 2005 that has caused any major, widespread wind damage in Florida. This is fortunate, but a bit odd.

Also, it appears that Alberto is moving slowly due west now.
Quoting j2008:
Moving true SW and maintaining convection. Love it, anybody know if any news outlets are pushing the panic/doom button yet?

TWC totally has it covered... Oh wait nevermind they're not even showing live programming :)
wait..we got Alberto??
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think we may see 94L and maybe TD2 in the next comeing days
From where?
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


I think the op meant nothing of any major consequence for Florida, especially wind-wise. Bonnie in 2010 was basically a non-event. Fay in 2008 caused major flooding in some areas. I am pretty sure there has not been a tropical cyclone since Wilma in 2005 that has caused any major, widespread wind damage in Florida. This is fortunate, but a bit odd.

Also, it appears that Alberto is moving slowly due west now.


I think you meant troll not op
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Presslord and crew are sailing south from Georgetown to McClennanville and are just N of the Storm along the coast.


It really could use a southern feeder band, that could blow it up but it wont get it....




too much dry air
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

You are the most useful bot ever. So much for yelling "NEW BLOG!!1!1!" every time there's an update.
I didn't expect this, wow.

And NO, a May storm doesn't mean we are going to have an active season now, lol.
Hopefully a bad report...
GOH low
This just from our NWS here in CHS

Link


Pressures are significantly falling now all across the West/ NW Caribbean.
SHIP INDICATES ALBERTO IS STRONGER...

REPORTS FROM A SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PRESSURE DATA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 MPH...95 KM/H. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You are the most useful bot ever. So much for yelling "NEW BLOG!!1!1!" every time there's an update.

Plus the new bot opens the new blog in another window so you can seam up what you missed. Bravo!
Fukushima Update:

AGAIN: Three strong quakes in 15 minutes hit near same area as on 3/11 — M5.8, M5.0, M4.8 (MAPS)

CTV: No. 3 fuel pool “poses a greater risk of failing” than No. 4 — “Has not been strengthened since the disaster”

Gundersen: Japan is sitting on a ticking time bomb — “We’re all in a situation of having to pray there’s not an earthquake”

Link
Quoting stormpetrol:


Pressures are significantly falling now all across the West/ NW Caribbean.
Wow.! 981.2 over Eastern Jamaica.!..:)