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April 2012: Earth's 5th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:00 PM GMT on May 18, 2012

April 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest April on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated April 2012 as the 4th warmest April on record. April 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature was 1.74°C (3.13°F) above the 20th century average, marking the warmest April since records began in 1880. Global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and April 2012 was the 427th consecutive month with ocean temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time the ocean temperatures were below average was September 1976. The increase in global temperatures relative to average compared to March 2012 (16th warmest March on record) was due, in part, to warming waters in the Eastern Pacific, due to the La Niña event that ended in April. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th or 4th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). April temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st to 4th coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during April was 4th smallest in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April in his April 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, national heat records (for warmest April temperature on record) occurred in the United States (a tie), Germany, Austria, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Moldova, Hungry, Croatia, Ukraine, and Slovakia as well as the cities of Moscow and Munich.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2012. The most notable extremes were the warmth observed across Russia, the United States, Alaska, and parts of the Middle East and eastern Europe. There were no land areas with large-scale cold conditions of note. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña officially ends
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately average as of May 13. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. CPC forecasts that neutral conditions will persist though the summer, with a 41% chance of an El Niño event developing in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 (blue line) compared to the average (thick grey line.) The record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) is also shown. Arctic sea ice was near average during April, but has fallen well below average during the first half of May. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

April Arctic sea ice extent near average
Arctic sea ice extent was near average in April 2012, the 17th lowest (18th greatest) extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the largest April Arctic sea ice extent since 2001. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic.


Figure 2. Mt. St. Helens in Washington State erupting on May 18, 1980. Image credit: USGS.

Anniversary of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens
Today is the 32nd anniversary of the May 18th, 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens in Washington State. To mark the occasion, NASA has put together a cool Landsat satellite time lapse of 32 years of regrowth of surrounding forest. The USGS has an extensive informational site on the eruption.


Video 1. In Grand Isle, Louisiana last week, a large waterspout came ashore as an EF-1 tornado. The tornado ripped the roof off of the house across the street from this videographer, who should have taken shelter instead of filming the destruction. There's one 4-letter word in the video. Thanks go to Andrew Freedman of Climate Central for posting this.

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back Sunday or Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Looks like one of 93Ls possible destinations is the outer banks.
Good morning, everybody!

Newly formed 93L is looking very good.
Wilmington Wx is reporting 93 is 118 miles south of Wilmington with winds of 39 kts... The ocean off the North Carolina Coast is running in the mid 70s F
convection is now building right on top of the LLCOC of our GOH low and also on the east side of the circulation
if this trend of increasing convection continues we may get 94L this evening or tomrrow morning in the GOH
Carnival cruise liner experiencing 30kt. winds, not far from the CoC.


Carnival Pride

Operator: Carnival Cruise Lines

Last reported at 2012-May-19 11:00 UTC. Time now 2012-May-19 13:31 UTC.
Position N 32°06' W 077°48'.

Wind from 320 at 30 knots

Waves 2.5 meters (8 feet), 15 second period

Barometer 1011.0 mb
Air temperature 23.0 ° C
Visibility: greater than 5.4 NM
Dewpoint 20.0 ° C
Water temperature 27.0 ° C

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.pht ml?call=H3VU
Quoting Ameister12:

hey look its Andrea
It is really windy today and cloudy...why?

Oh, we have a developing subtropical storm off the coast, no wonder.

Looks VERY nice. Unlike 92L, it should continue to fire deep convection.
Good morning all...i see we have 93L this morning
.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Already looks like a Tropical Depression... Best looking feature so far this year.
Well, it looks like the GFS, NOGAPS and the EURO have been calling for development of a system in the area off of the North and South Carolina coast since last week. I even mentioned it in my blog on the 14th as did a number of others. They called this one pretty good.

I don't see much development of the system in the Western Caribbean. Even with the pressure drops, the shear should remain quite high.




With an upward pulse in the MJO by the end of the month, it will be more likely to see development in the Caribbean at the end of May.




Quoting wunderkidcayman:
convection is now building right on top of the LLCOC of our GOH low and also on the east side of the circulation obs data suggest that the pressure has dropped from a 1010 to 1008mb


Good morning

Although the 850 vort and low level convergence have both improved there is only an extremely small area of low shear immediately close to the coast and to the SW of where the low is located. Overhead the conditions are still too hostile for this to develop in the near term.

GOH disturbance

Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

Although the 850 vort and low level convergence have both improved there is only an extremely small area of low shear immediately close to the coast and to the SW of where the low is located. Overhead the conditions are still too hostile for this to develop in the near term.


however shear should die down in a larger area within 12-24 hours if not started yet
Quoting Grothar:
Well, it looks like the GFS, NOGAPS and the EURO have been calling for development of a system in the area off of the North and South Carolina coast since last week. I even mentioned it in my blog on the 14th as did a number of others. They called this one pretty good.

I don't see much development of the system in the Western Caribbean. Even with the pressure drops, the shear should remain quite high.




With an upward pulse in the MJO by the end of the month, it will be more likely to see development in the Caribbean at the end of May.






Hi Gro,

I agree. The high in the Epac to the South of Nicaragua is shearing the GOH low and this, combined with the shear to the North, is preventing development there. If 93L retrogrades to the SW it too will add to shear by creating South Westerly flow aloft over the GOM and the NW Caribbean.
If 93L keeps up its current organization, I'd say we could have Alberto sometime today or tomorrow.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Gro,

I agree. The high in the Epac to the South of Nicaragua is shearing the GOH low and this, combined with the shear to the North, is preventing development there. If 93L retrogrades to the SW it too will add to shear by creating South Westerly flow aloft over the GOM and the NW Caribbean.


Yo! Kman! Yes, that is what it looks like. You never stay on long enough for us to give you a hey!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
convection is now building right on top of the LLCOC of our GOH low and also on the east side of the circulation obs data suggest that the pressure has dropped from a 1010 to 1008mb


Link to the observations please. I checked the buys and they are reporting current barometric pressures of 29.83 or 1011mb with the pressure tendency rising.

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.04 in ( Rising )
Area of disturbed wx east of the Bahamas... think the models were forecasting something potentially, eventually, forming in this area [next week, IIRC]

Quoting Ameister12:
If 93L keeps up its current organization, I'd say we could have Andrea sometime today or tomorrow.


"Alberto"
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

Although the 850 vort and low level convergence have both improved there is only an extremely small area of low shear immediately close to the coast and to the SW of where the low is located. Overhead the conditions are still too hostile for this to develop in the near term.

Hey Kman. What's up?
Quoting BahaHurican:
GOH disturbance


right that center blob near 16.8N 86.7W is expanding the blob to the east near 16.5N 83.5W is also expanding and also moving towards that center blob
What will invest 93L get at the next Special Tropical Weather Outlook?

A) Low chance (<30%)
B) Medium chance (30-50%)
C) High chance (>50%)
D) Subtropical depression/storm designation

I say B.
Quoting Grothar:
Well, it looks like the GFS, NOGAPS and the EURO have been calling for development of a system in the area off of the North and South Carolina coast since last week. I even mentioned it in my blog on the 14th as did a number of others. They called this one pretty good.

I don't see much development of the system in the Western Caribbean. Even with the pressure drops, the shear should remain quite high.




With an upward pulse in the MJO by the end of the month, it will be more likely to see development in the Caribbean at the end of May.






(clearing throat)...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Area of disturbed wx east of the Bahamas... think the models were forecasting something potentially, eventually, forming in this area [next week, IIRC]



Ahem....
No thank you, please
Quoting reedzone:


"Alberto"

Whoops. Thanks for noticing that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What will invest 93L get at the next Special Tropical Weather Outlook?

A) Low chance (<30%)
B) Medium chance (30-50%)
C) High chance (>50%)
D) Subtropical depression/storm designation

I say B.


Knowing the NHC, yeah, B.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SHIP has 93L peak intensity at 54kts.




Yep. Looks more like a big rain maker.

Quoting Grothar:


Yo! Kman! Yes, that is what it looks like. You never stay on long enough for us to give you a hey!
Just what I was thinking... LOL

Hey, kman.
Quoting Grothar:


Yo! Kman! Yes, that is what it looks like. You never stay on long enough for us to give you a hey!


LOL. I will be on for a bit this morning. There hasn't been a lot of action out there so far but the Caribbean may spin up something in the next couple of weeks if shear dies down.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What will invest 93L get at the next Special Tropical Weather Outlook?

A) Low chance (<30%)
B) Medium chance (30-50%)
C) High chance (>50%)
D) Subtropical depression/storm designation

I say B.

B.
Quoting ncstorm:


(clearing throat)...


What, did you think I was only here for comedy relief?? :) Morning, nc.
The Euro keeps lower pressure around the gulf and Western Caribbean...240 hours..
Quoting jrweatherman:


Link to the observations please. I checked the buys and they are reporting current barometric pressures of 29.83 or 1011mb with the pressure tendency rising.

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.04 in ( Rising )

changed sorry about that made an error with the obs I was looking at some obs that was from 4am the area has 1010mb
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What will invest 93L get at the next Special Tropical Weather Outlook?

A) Low chance (<30%)
B) Medium chance (30-50%)
C) High chance (>50%)
D) Subtropical depression/storm designation

I say B.

B.
93L has until Monday (~roughly 72 hours) to organize. This is our best chance at seeing Alberto so far this...off season.

Wish I had my laptop...
Quoting nigel20:
Hey Kman. What's up?


HI there, a little rain overnight and this morning with passing showers on the cards all day by the looks of things. We've had a fairly wet dry season, in fact no real dry season this year to speak of so moisture levels are fairly high early in the season. The image below is a good indicator of this. If this continues we could see an early start to the season in the Caribbean.

Quoting Grothar:


What, did you think I was only here for comedy relief?? :) Morning, nc.
You and Aristophanes were were the light of stand up back in the day..
Quoting Grothar:


What, did you think I was only here for comedy relief?? :) Morning, nc.


LOL..You dont ever post your blog link in this forum...I didnt know you were doing them..will be sure visit there now and good morning to you too!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What will invest 93L get at the next Special Tropical Weather Outlook?

A) Low chance (<30%)
B) Medium chance (30-50%)
C) High chance (>50%)
D) Subtropical depression/storm designation

I say B.

I think they will be a bit conservative and go with A
I am not disagreeing that the is shear in the GOH and NW caribbean but shear is slow decreasing in the GOH and is expected to drop down to 5-15kt within the next 12-36 hours in the GOH
I go with B.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just what I was thinking... LOL

Hey, kman.


Hey my man, some action to start watching :-)

The high in the Epac has retrograded to the West since yesterday and if it moves out of the way might open the door some for the GOH low to try something but the NHC are calling for it to dissipate. An early season teaser.

TX 13, how do you see what is going on this morning with 92E?
Quoting kmanislander:


HI there, a little rain overnight and this morning with passing showers on the cards all day by the looks of things. We've had a fairly wet dry season, in fact no real dry season this year to speak of so moisture levels are fairly high early in the season. The image below is a good indicator of this. If this continues we could see an early start to the season in the Caribbean.


Hi !
Looks like we are facing a couple of drier days.
About time.
Everything is completely saturated.
Never known a dry season like this one.
Even the breadfruit is early!
Every frame it looks better and better, I am actually tossing some of these images into my iPhoto just for memories sake :p

GOH low is 1009mb stronger than the 1010mb low earler
Quoting kmanislander:


HI there, a little rain overnight and this morning with passing showers on the cards all day by the looks of things. We've had a fairly wet dry season, in fact no real dry season this year to speak of so moisture levels are fairly high early in the season. The image below is a good indicator of this. If this continues we could see an early start to the season in the Caribbean.

I know...i'm right next (Jamaica) to you
Quoting nigel20:
I know...i'm right next (Jamaica) to you

Better performance today at Lords...
Quoting pottery:

Hi !
Looks like we are facing a couple of drier days.
About time.
Everything is completely saturated.
Never known a dry season like this one.
Even the breadfruit is early!


Funny you say that because my breadfruit tree is overloaded now too !. On the flip side, the early rains have cut the mango crop all over the island with everyone complaining that their trees are not producing like previous years.

This is the first year in about 6 that we have had rain in good measure every month since January and I know you have had lots as well. Strange start to 2012.
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

Just a reminder.... Hey, I just realized this is the 2006 list.... wonder if the outcome will be the same retirement-wise....
Quoting kmanislander:


Funny you say that because my breadfruit tree is overloaded now too !. On the flip side, the early rains have cut the mango crop all over the island with everyone complaining that their trees are not producing like previous years.

This is the first year in about 6 that we have had rain in good measure every month since January and I know you have had lots as well. Strange start to 2012.

Not a mango to be seen here! No chutney this round.
No fires either which is real nice.

Looks interesting in your area over the next couple of days!
Quoting pottery:

Better performance today at Lords...
Yeah, but they need to bat well to set a good total for England
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Ahem....
No thank you, please
Hey, CRS... and no, I'm not sending wx ur way... the models were suggesting whatever forms would go out to sea, south of Bermuda.
I remember 90L and 92L, but what was 91L?
48 hour water vapor forecast has the has the low moving inland over Cape Hatteras...
Quoting nigel20:
Yeah, but they need to bat well to set a good total for England

So far so good....

BBL>>>>>>>>>
The GOH low is looking pretty good today. Thunderstorms firing up again but likely to get pulled off to the ENE in our direction.

Quoting pottery:

Not a mango to be seen here! No chutney this round.
No fires either which is real nice.

Looks interesting in your area over the next couple of days!


Wow, odd that about the mango crop and early seasonal rain. Good that the fire threat is down though.
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 19 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
Quoting kmanislander:


Funny you say that because my breadfruit tree is overloaded now too !. On the flip side, the early rains have cut the mango crop all over the island with everyone complaining that their trees are not producing like previous years.

This is the first year in about 6 that we have had rain in good measure every month since January and I know you have had lots as well. Strange start to 2012.
Did someone say Mangos well i thought we'd see non this year but the crop is very late trees are just starting to bloom . I see people trying to hype the low east of us i guess there is just to much cold dry air comming off of the mountains to really get it going.
Caribbean shear below climo



Vertical instability above climo



Both trends positive for development if they continue that way.
Quoting kmanislander:
The GOH low is looking pretty good today. Thunderstorms firing up again but likely to get pulled off to the ENE in our direction.


not really cause the blob on the east side is pushing West to the center blob likely to merge also with center blob it is grabing convection from its SW and so it look like the center blob is draging in all the convection from all sides
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
May 19, 2012 - 13:45 UTC
Quoting kmanislander:


Wow, odd that about the mango crop and early seasonal rain. Good that the fire threat is down though.
We have Mangoes, but they came earlier than normal...the vegetation is quite lush especially in the hilly interior of Jamaica
Quoting belizeit:
Did someone say Mangos well i thought we'd see non this year but the crop is very late trees are just starting to bloom . I see people trying to hype the low east of us i guess there is just to much cold dry air comming off of the mountains to really get it going.


I don't think its "people" hyping the low but every feature has a believer or two LOL. I do not think it stands much of a chance in the near future but at least it gives us something to chat about in this area.
Quoting nigel20:
We have Mangoes, but they came earlier than normal...the vegetation is quite lush especially in the hilly interior of Jamaica


I went to boarding school at Knox in Spalding so I know the mountains well. Loved it up there. Nice and cool and all kinds of fruit, especially ortaniques which were in abundance on the school property.
older


now


notice that 20kt line is backing off to the N
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think its "people" hyping the low but every feature has a believer or two LOL. I do not think it stands much of a chance in the near future but at least it gives us something to chat about in this area.
I guess its also what gave us a early start to rain season some areas received over 4 in of rain . I'm hoping the rain will stop a couple of more days so i can plant my corn crop.
WHOA WHAT DO WE HAVE HERE!?!?!



93L? An Eye apparent on radar?
93L has already built at least half an eyewall as an eye feature is clearly developing on radar.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I remember 90L and 92L, but what was 91L?



Morning everyone, looks interesting off the US east coast this morning also here's a pretty good link to western carib vis loop




Link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
older


now


notice that 20kt line is backing off to the N


The real issue is the high in the Epac positioned to the South of Nicaragua. You can see from both of those maps that it has shifted a little to the West in the time difference between them but would have to either move a long way off or head North so that it is directly overhead the GOH low in order for it to stand any chance of developing.

Niether one of those scenarios is likely to happen any time soon.
I know most of the water temperatures off the coast of N. Carolina are in the mid 70's for the most part, this system could be sitting on 80+ temps as it is very close to being directly over the gulf stream.  

Quoting kmanislander:


I went to boarding school at Knox in Spalding so I know the mountains well. Loved it up there. Nice and cool and all kinds of fruit, especially ortaniques which were in abundance on the school property.
Knox is a very good school...it's very cool in Spaldings, Christiana and Mandeville
It's been pretty cold this side of the pond through May - in fact, colder than some Februarys (or should that be Februaries?) Ski slopes still open in one Scottish resort.
Florida will be moving into a wetter pattern soon. It will be interesting to see whether or not it is the the regular rainy season shift, or the backward pattern.
Tx 13, how do you see 92E this morning?
Quoting kmanislander:


Hey my man, some action to start watching :-)

The high in the Epac has retrograded to the West since yesterday and if it moves out of the way might open the door some for the GOH low to try something but the NHC are calling for it to dissipate. An early season teaser.

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised to see something next week, though. Seems the atmosphere is a bit more volatile this year than last. And it looks like the Car is going to be the action station; temps off the W African coast are still below average.


Okay, I know I have said stuff should be named before, but if THIS isn't named, I might put my head through a wall... Fully tropical, eye feature, persistent convection, non-frontal, come on!
I'm surprised we here in the Caymans haven't had more rain, as looking at satellite imagery would suggest we would be getting quite a bit!
Quoting nigel20:
Knox is a very good school...it's very cool in Spaldings, Christiana and Mandeville


My old stomping grounds :-). Mandeville could get very "cold". Still does. Some homes there had fireplaces if I recall correctly.
ASCAT has 30kt winds....

right the two blobs in the GOH have now merged and is still growing and developing
Quoting stormpetrol:
I'm surprised we here in the Caymans haven't had more rain, as looking at satellite imagery would suggest we would be getting quite a bit!


The imagery is deceptive, mostly high cloud. We will probably get the odd shower here and there today though.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tx 13, how do you see 92E this morning?

Better organized than last night, that is for sure :p
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..You dont ever post your blog link in this forum...I didnt know you were doing them..will be sure visit there now and good morning to you too!


Aw, I always thought that was kind of showing off. Besides, if I were wrong on my forecasts, more people would know about it. If someone wants to read my blog they can always sneak in.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Okay, I know I have said stuff should be named before, but if THIS isn't named, I might put my head through a wall... Fully tropical, eye feature, persistent convection, non-frontal, come on!


This is Alberto in my opinion!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Okay, I know I have said stuff should be named before, but if THIS isn't named, I might put my head through a wall... Fully tropical, eye feature, persistent convection, non-frontal, come on!

Patience. It is more hybrid than warm core and has three days to develop.
Quoting kmanislander:


The real issue is the high in the Epac positioned to the South of Nicaragua. You can see from both of those maps that it has shifted a little to the West in the time difference between them but would have to either move a long way off or head North so that it is directly overhead the GOH low in order for it to stand any chance of developing.

Niether one of those scenarios is likely to happen any time soon.

looking at the sat loops and the high density winds at high level shows the high to be located in southern honduras and is expected to shift to the N maybe a tad bit W of N but still causing shear to die down in the next 24 hours more so in the next 48
I am off for now. Will check back later. Have a nice day everyone.
Gotta admit the so called "eye feature" has me a bit perplexed, thank goodness for long range radar or else nobody would even know that was there.
Quoting hydrus:
You and Aristophanes were were the light of stand up back in the day..



Yeah, but he was always three "sheets" to the wind.


20kts of shear and dropping on 93L
Quoting kmanislander:
I am off for now. Will check back later. Have a nice day everyone.

ok come back soon kman
Wish we knew when the next STWO was.


I've seen enough it is time to send in recon, even though I know that will never happen lol. I'm quite intrigued right now, it could be the radar is deceiving me at that range but idk.
Ummmmm.... You can see the eye feature on shortwave....
East US Shortwave IR

Quoting kmanislander:
I am off for now. Will check back later. Have a nice day everyone.
Same to you Kman
As the G8 meets at Camp David this weekend to determine the fate of the world's monetary system, I suspect they will find that like the storms of the North Atlantic, it will prove beyond their control.

Manifest Destiny begins and ends with a storm called "Greece."





Quoting Grothar:



Yeah, but he was always three "sheets" to the wind.
Yes...He partied here regularly and was well paid..Getting paid to party..Theatre of Dionysus and the throne for the archon eponymos (the throne is dedicated to a Roman citizen, Marcus Ulpius, and to his two sons, 3rd Century A.D., in recognition of their charitable works during a time of famine).Theatre of Dionysus, Athens — in Aristophanes' time, the audience probably sat on wooden benches with earth foundations.
Deutsch: Dies ist die Ehrensitzreihe des Dionysostheaters in Athen.
Date 31 March 2008
1km view...



Gotta admit it's a pretty little thang....
000
FXUS62 KCAE 191455
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
AND WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN US
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES FOR THE NEAR TERM WITH THE
NAM HANDLING THE SITUATION THE BEST. THIS AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE LOW TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD ILM. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOW AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. EXPECTED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS CONTINUES AS THE NAM KEEPS A
DEEPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE OTHER MODELS
MOVE THE LOW FURTHER NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.
AS SUCH HAVE
LEANED AWAY FROM THE NAM AS IT IS AN OUTLIER ATTM. THIS WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST. CLOUDS WILL ALSO PLAY A PART IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS AND MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&
Good morning to all,good to see AOI's popping up early. Happy Hunting!
Is 93L warm-core or cold-core?
000
FXUS62 KILM 191448
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1048 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD...SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY OR MAY NOT ATTAIN HYBRID TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS
WILL BE CENTRAL TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE WITH ONLY A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO KICK IT OUT. UNSETTLED WEATHER THUS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END UP BEING CONFINED TO
THE COAST WHERE DIRECT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
COINCIDE. THE COOLER AIRMASS INLAND WILL SERVE AS AN OVERRUNNING
SURFACE HOWEVER AND WRF DOES SHOW SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL BREAKING
OUT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER WESTERN ZONES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF IS WARRANTED IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT.
AT LEAST BY 00Z MONDAY PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WILL
START BEING SAMPLED BY RAOBS FROM CHS AND MHX WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE
FORECAST CERTAINTY. CURRENT FORECAST HEDGED SOME TOWARDS THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WRF (WHICH INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW)
BUT TRIMS POPS SLIGHTLY BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT IN DEFERENCE TO HPC
PREFERENCE OF OTHER GUIDANCE BEYOND ABOUT 12HRS. MANY MODELS OTHER
THAN THE WRF WEAKEN THE LOW OFF OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO INTERACTION FROM
A RETROGRESSION OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND
70W/36N...WELL E OF VA. COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE HOW THAT SYSTEM
PEELS OFF TO THE NE INTO ITS OWN WAA ZONE AND THE WRF HAS MORE OF
THE RIGHT IDEA. GIVEN ALL PREV DISCUSSED ANOTHER POINT OF FCST
UNCERTAINTY IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WRF TRACK MAY BE
CLOSEST TO WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS SOME RATHER DRY AIR MAY HANG ON
OVER WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA SEVERELY CUTTING DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES.

DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SINCE IT REMAINS DISCONNECTED
FROM THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE BY THE LAST
FROPA. ONCE THE FRONTAL INVERSION RETREATS WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER BREEZY. MOST
PLACES STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON
SUN ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS COOLER. MONDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
DESPITE THE CONTINUED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST. MONDAYS TEMP FORECAST MAY EVEN HINGE ON
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE/BAROCLINICITY OF THE LOW.

&&
621. LBAR
Charleston, SC NWS not too impresses with the tropical low...I mean NON-TROPCIAL low...ahem...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW IS MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF MYRTLE
BEACH SC THIS MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 40S DEWPOINTS EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WHILE
UPPER 50S AND 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
PRECIP SHIELD WILL REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW SO MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY TODAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S FAR
NORTH WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE
YET TO INTRUDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EVOLUTION/TRANSLATION OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL DICTATE THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED OVER SE GEORGIA WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THE NAM REMAINS ROBUST WITH BACKING DEEP
MOISTURE BACK INTO NE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
WEAKER. WE MAINTAINED PERSISTENCE/CONTINUITY BY KEEPING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E OF A LINE FROM LAKE MOULTRIE TO CHARLESTON
LATE TONIGHT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS OUR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES
DRY. WE SUSPECT ANY PCPN THAT FALLS WOULD BE MOSTLY STRATIFORM AND
QUITE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...RESTRICTED TO FAR NE PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
If anyone missed it:


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191211
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR
SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1046 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AMZ630-651-670-671-191700-
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
1046 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ACTIVITY RANGES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PART OF BISCAYNE BAY TO THE OFF SHORE WATERS. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
ARE ACROSS THE OFF SHORE WATERS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

$$
BBL
stayFLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1034 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...

GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE AFFECTING FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM
UNDER THE RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

SCC041-067-200634-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120523T1200Z/
/PDES1.1.ER.120518T0845Z.120520T1800Z.120523T0000 Z.NO/
1034 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE GREAT PEE DEE RIVER AT PEE DEE.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:00 AM SATURDAY...THE STAGE WAS 19.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.0 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL AFFECT SWAMPLANDS AND
LOGGING INTERESTS. FLOOD WATERS WILL AFFECT TIMBERLAND AS FAR
DOWNSTREAM AS YAUHANNAH TWO WEEKS AFTER THE CREST PASSES PEE DEE.
LOGGING EQUIPMENT NEEDS TO BE MOVED.

$$
47 safe up there...........................
Morning...

I posted a blog entry on all the Atlantic tropics about 1 AM EDT....I bet everyone was sleeping...

Looks like my analysis on the Carolina coast system (now Invest 93-L) turned out to be pretty good....this is a complex system. If this continues...I will be writing another update!
Bye-bye Aletta.

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 191438
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...ALETTA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 112.5W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
It was bound to happen... two storms have exploded over New Providence. Sweet.



I'm under the western storm.
Quoting Ameister12:
Bye-bye Aletta.

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 191438
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...ALETTA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 112.5W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


And hellooooo Alberto!!! (If 93-L continues like this)...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Is 93L warm-core or cold-core?


Not warm core



Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Is 93L warm-core or cold-core?

It's largely cold core transitioning into a warm core/cold core hybrid.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not warm core



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's largely cold core transitioning into a warm core/cold core hybrid.

Thanks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Better organized than last night, that is for sure :p


92E drifting SSE per 12z Surface Analysis.

Is there still an eye feature on 93L?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's largely cold core transitioning into a warm core/cold core hybrid.

At around 1 AM on my blog...I was talking about how the north side of this thing had upper-level "anticyclonic fanning"...or anticyclonic outflow...Figure 1 of that post illustrated it....

Usually that means there has been vertical growth of a warm core such that an upper anticyclonic outflow establishes itself...and this trend is definetly continuing with the cirrus outflow clouds on the north side. So why then is this not a tropical low in the phase diagrams? Is it because there is some residual cold core upper low/trough directly over and south of its center?
Quoting Ameister12:

Wow, good circulation and a lot of convection... I think we'll get Alberto out of this becuase it should be able to hold its convection for an extended period of time
Quoting Thrawst:
It was bound to happen... two storms have exploded over New Providence. Sweet.



I'm under the western storm.
I'm currently in between the storms, and have no interest in driving through that eastern one to get where I'm going this afternoon.... lol

Hey Thrawst.... at least u get to stay home and enjoy. I gotta go to work, meaning I gotta drive in that mess.
HRRR brings 93L to about 50 knots

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wow, good circulation and a lot of convection... I think we'll get Alberto out of this becuase it should be able to hold its convection for an extended period of time


Unlike 92L....the water temps are warmer near the Gulf stream....so the risk of Alberto is definetely up there. Showing no signs of reducing convection....
Well i slept late and now this. But here in ILM it is just overcast and a perfect day to mow the grass...no problems from whatever it is. We in NC dont have time for this. We are having to deal with John Edwards
until they get in and sample the area, still a lot of uncertainity with the forecast..

AT LEAST BY 00Z MONDAY PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WILL
START BEING SAMPLED BY RAOBS FROM CHS AND MHX WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE
FORECAST CERTAINTY.
Convection is still very consistent. Just had a new burst of convection over/near the COC.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Is there still an eye feature on 93L?


Kinda, it has filled but radar does seem to be showing a new one trying to form.
Two things 93L needs to do to become Alberto...

1) persist convection through the afternoon hours
2) attain warm core characteristics

Other than that, 93L has a very good chance to become Alberto.

I think we will see much higher chances for formation at the next STWO


SHIPS brings it up to 54kts
50%

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
Up to 50%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

Great call by the NHC. We'll likely see Alberto later today, or tomorrow morning.

The buoy 20 miles SE of Cape Fear,Nc is reporting wind at 29 Kts with Gusts to 35 Kts
*removed to avoid there being too many STWOs*
Removed.
Quick, everyone post the STWO!
(Sarcasm Flag: ON)
93L is set to become Alberto. Key for it is to persist, and stay consistent which has been doing very well up to now. Only the characteristics-wise left is to transition to a warm core which is attainable with the nearby gulf stream waters.
Quoting Ameister12:
Great call by the NHC. We'll likely see Alberto later today, or tomorrow morning.

Oh wow, new special update?
Up to 50% now. I'd say it could become a Sub-Tropical Depression by tonight.

13z HRRR really blows 93L up later into a symmetrical TS
The blog is going nuts now!!.93L looks destined to become Alberto.I'm surprise the Doc hasn't posted a blog yet.
660. 7544
hmm interesting could we see our first watch of the season for the us and its still may ?
Blog set to explode in:
3,2,1.
Station 41013
NDBC
Location: 33.436N 77.743W
Date: Sat, 19 May 2012 14:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20°) at 29.1 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (78°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.94 in and rising
Air Temperature: 68.7 F
Dew Point: 65.8 F
Water Temperature: 73.6 F
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Up to 50% now. I'd say it could become a Sub-Tropical Depression by tonight.

13z HRRR really blows 93L up later into a symmetrical TS

It will probably go straight to Alberto and skip the depression stage because it has strong enough winds... The only problem it has is it has to become more warm core which it seems to be doing
Quoting washingtonian115:
The blog is going nuts now!!.93L looks destined to become Alberto.I'm surprise the Doc hasn't posted a blog yet.
If this becomes Alberto it will be 2nd time I think that a storm that is name Alberto don`t make landfall in Florida the other year I think is 2000.
Time for me to write a blog update!
Dr. M should be posting very soon. Carolina's should receive a watch later today if we get alberto
If 93L keeps firing convection and keeps strengthening, what will 93L be at the next STWO.
A. <50%
B. 60%
C. 70%
D.80- Near 100%
E. Renumbered
Is there any way we could get a recon flight into this or are the hurricane hunters not available at this time of year?
Quoting allancalderini:
If this becomes Alberto it will be 2nd time I think that a storm that is name Alberto don`t make landfall in Florida the other year I think is 2000.
I know right!.
Dr. Masters said in his blog he will not have a new post until Sunday or Monday so I wouldn't expect anything from him
My prediction: Subtropical Storm Alberto at 11 pm EDT
if 93L was to become a TD or TS the NHC has to change it to that very very soon cause looking at radar it may not be over water so long
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Is there any way we could get a recon flight into this or are the hurricane hunters not available at this time of year?


I'm pretty sure they are always on standby; if not the AF, then NOAA should be ready as they were flying non-trop missions a couple months ago.
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for 92E
Invest92E's vector has changed from East at ~3.4mph(5.5k/h) to East at ~4.5mph(7.3k/h)
Its MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady at ~25knots(29mph)46k/h
And its minimum pressure has held steady at 1006millibars
For those who like to visually track 92E's path...

The northernmost dot on the connected lines was 92E's position as of 48hours ago
The dot on the the other end of the connected lines is 92E's most recent position
ZLO is Manzanillo, LZC is LazaroCardenas, ZIH is Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo,
ACA is Acapulco, and HUX is Huatulco

Copy&paste hux, zlo, lzc, zih, aca, 11.3n98.7w-11.7n99.2w, 11.7n99.2w-11.6n100.0w, 11.6n100.0w-11.3n100.6w, 11.3n100.6w-11.2n100.6w, 11.2n100.6w-11.0n100.6w, 11.0n100.6w-10.8n100.5w, 10.8n100.5w-11.0n100.3w, 11.0n100.3w-11.0n100.0w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
Quoting Ameister12:
Convection is still very consistent.

One thing to point out too...unlike 92L...this has established anticyclonic outflow all the way up into the 200 mb level...especially on its north side.

This will boost ventilation for 93-L to fire more convection...and in turn the latent heat release from the clouds will re-enforce the upper anticyclone. This is convective feedback that we see in tropical cyclones...

If the anticyclone's ventilation exceeds the intake of the low-level circulation...the low-level circulation sees its pressure fall. That is how a tropical cyclone strengthens. If the ventilation is equal to or less than the intake of the low-level circulatoin...the low-level maintains strength or weakens...
look to be moving just N of due W
Carnival Pride

Operator: Carnival Cruise Lines

Last reported at 2012-May-19 15:00 UTC. Time now 2012-May-19 16:12 UTC.
Position N 33°12' W 076°42'.

Wind from 090 at 35 knots

Waves 2.5 meters (8 feet), 5 second period

Barometer 1008.0 mb
Air temperature 23.0 ° C
Visibility: greater than 5.4 NM
Dewpoint 22.0 ° C
Water temperature 24.0 ° C

Link
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
32.25N/77.47W
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If 93L keeps firing convection and keeps strengthening, what will 93L be at the next STWO.
A. <50%
B. 60%
C. 70%
D.80- Near 100%
E. Renumbered

C or D depending on how fast it can get to a warm core. But by tonight or early tomorrow definitely a renumber likely
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Up to 50% now. I'd say it could become a Sub-Tropical Depression by tonight.

13z HRRR really blows 93L up later into a symmetrical TS

Heck...with that kind of symmetry and anticyclonic outflow flourishing on its north side....it could be upped to Tropical Storm Alberto later today if they find strong enough winds. Its got the mechanics of a fully tropical systemm per post 675.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
if 93L was to become a TD or TS the NHC has to change it to that very very soon cause looking at radar it may not be over water so long

...it is not going inland, it is going to meander off the coastline.
1. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
wow!!
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If 93L keeps firing convection and keeps strengthening, what will 93L be at the next STWO.
A. <50%
B. 60%
C. 70%
D.80- Near 100%
E. Renumbered

C, or D.
This made me laugh:

* AT 1010 AM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER BALL SIZE HAIL
. THIS THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG
BALLS. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF NEENOSHE
RESERVOIR...OR 24 MILES NORTH OF LAMAR...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
Who's ready to see the first red circle of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...it is not going inland, it is going to meander off the coastline.

#1 I said may
#2 go and look at the darn radar
Barely moving.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who's ready to see the first red circle of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Me! In may too!
Looking pretty, could that convective burst be indicative of a warm core transition? We will soon find out.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...it is not going inland, it is going to meander off the coastline.

Right....that is what I am thinking right now. The way I visualize 93-L is like its a pinball inside a pinball machine...surrounded by ridges to the E...N...and W. It will bounce around like a pinball amongst these ridges...
Charleston Radar

Quoting MrstormX:
Looking pretty, could that convective burst be indicative of a warm core transitions? We will soon find out.


Yep. The TWO even states that 93l is starting to require tropical characteristics.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Dr. M should be posting very soon. Carolina's should receive a watch later today if we get alberto




Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back Sunday or Monday with a new post.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who's ready to see the first red circle of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Who's ready to see the first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season!?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who's ready to see the first red circle of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Me!!!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...it is not going inland, it is going to meander off the coastline.


That may be but the WSW motion now makes me less certain.
Quoting MrstormX:
Looking pretty, could that convective burst be indicative of a warm core transition? We will soon find out.


It likely is.
First time seeing this:

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 I said may
#2 go and look at the darn radar

On radar, it's very slowly approaching the coast, but steering patterns will shift some before 93L can come ashore. It's one nice system, impressed by it much more than 92L.
Charleston
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That may be but the WSW motion now makes me less certain.

It is going to wobble around all day.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Who's ready to see the first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season!?

Touche. lol But yes!
Wow.... looks like mother nature does not want to wait for June 1st, based on the activity so far this week. And whatdya know, development very close to home, right off the Carolina's coast too. Interesting little feature. Wonder what kind of impacts it could have here in central VA.
Well, I leave for xam and come back and nearly miss another invest. It looks good moving like southwest most likely judging by the satellite images.
Quoting Patrap:



Oh For Gods Sake Pat! I have to give a SHOUTOUT to Pat and Paul and everyone with the PORTLIGHT organization. You guys are awesome . They were right there for me last year if i had needed them
Just noticed something: In the NHC's latest TWO they said that 93L could become a tropical depression or tropical storm... Did they mean sub-tropical or is it possible this becomes tropical?
Quoting Patrap:
Like Gaston of 2004.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...it is not going inland, it is going to meander off the coastline.


BUT could the COC at least clip eastern NC? Some models have 93L doing that.
Quoting allancalderini:
Like Gaston of 2004.


Will never forget that sucker here in Richmond VA
Quoting Patrap:

I'd be in the NE quadrant.
I don't think it will get very strong since the water temps west of the Gulf Stream are still in the 70s. But it's fun to watch.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just noticed something: In the NHC's latest TWO they said that 93L could become a tropical depression or tropical storm... Did they mean sub-tropical or is it possible this becomes tropical?


Did they say subtropical
Quoting Patrap:


That would be a puzzle for meteorologists and climatologists everywhere, a landfalling hurricane on May 19 in only semi-warm waters. I doubt it would happen, but if it did I imagine it would stump many experts and even alter perspectives on hurricane formation.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just noticed something: In the NHC's latest TWO they said that 93L could become a tropical depression or tropical storm... Did they mean sub-tropical or is it possible this becomes tropical?

They're thinking tropical.

1. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
Some of the models are predicting cat 1 status?.Not likely but it could be a strong tropical storm.Hopefully it brings rain to D.C.
Quoting weatherh98:


Did they say subtropical

Nope

AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
just talked to Presslord who is offshore.

Chatter is on the Marine Bands, be advised, Possible TD to TS forming S of Wilmington, East of Charleston.

Seek safe Harbor if in a Vessel that cannot take 8ft Seas along this systems Path.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191556
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
how is 92E?
Pretty. This same graphic brought Irene in 25 mb too low.

Most of the meso-scale models blow 93L up to near Hurricane status. 


Probably won't happen, but still interesting. 


Small Craft Advisory
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
952 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM AND SAVANNAH GA TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR AND GRAYS
REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY

AMZ350-200500-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
952 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING N 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN
THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

MARINERS ARE REMINDED THAT WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.
Not going to lie. 93L surprised even me. I wasn't expecting to wake up to 20% this morning, let alone 50%.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Some of the models are predicting cat 1 status?.Not likely but it could be a strong tropical storm.Hopefully it brings rain to D.C.


Let's just hope it doesn't become another Gaston here in Richmond, bad memories with that storm. Just want a nice all day soaker to make up our 2-3" deficit.
Quoting Tazmanian:




Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back Sunday or Monday with a new post.
i've already email him to let him know a storm is coming more wacky 2012 weather
Track is everything as to 93L's futcha'. If He can Parallel the Coastal Line SW it favors strengthening, if he Slides Due South or NE..a less chance.
Reminds me of 90L from 2009, but heading towards South Carolina. I wonder if the NHC will declare it 01L, if it persists for another few hours then it might, and unlike 92L - this is a threat to the United States (however small of a system it may be)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Most of the meso-scale models blow 93L up to near Hurricane status. 


Probably won't happen, but still interesting. 




Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 14177



True, but it is in the gulf stream.
Might get the Doc at of bed for this one, so to speak.
Convective activity continues to increase moderately in association with 93L. Radar imagery indicates a relatively well-developed lower-level circulation with decent inflow. Obviously upper-level conditions aren't necessarily conducive for rapid development of this feature; however, with an increase in convective activity, especially in the southeastern octant, we could see the development of the season's first [sub]tropical cyclone.

Definitely a better organized System than 3 hours ago..and this looking up from the Radar site..

Good deal of lighting occuring in the southern portion of the circulation. 
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convective activity continues to increase moderately in association with 93L. Radar imagery indicates a relatively well-developed lower-level circulation with decent inflow. Obviously upper-level conditions aren't necessarily conducive for rapid development of this feature; however, with an increase in convective activity, especially in the southwestern octant, we could see the development of the season's first [sub]tropical cyclone.


If named it will be tropical. What's up Miami?
Quoting tropicfreak:


Let's just hope it doesn't become another Gaston here in Richmond, bad memories with that storm. Just want a nice all day soaker to make up our 2-3" deficit.
A drought buster is what we be need'in!.
Hi MH09. How's it going?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Nope

AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO


excellent. reminder

THE CHART


ironically, we are in that slight spike
Quoting Patrap:
Definitely a better organized System than 3 hours ago..and this looking up from the Radar site..




Agreed. What do you think is most likely?
Quoting allancalderini:
how is 92E?

dead pretty much half got sucked into the GOH and half of that stayed one E pac coast and the other half got sucked into another area of convection just w of Nic
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop

..click image for Loop.

Zoom is available






I have just completed my blog update, feel free to peruse it and comment if you should want to.

93L: Will this be what we have been waiting for? Or long story short ALBERTO?!?!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convective activity continues to increase moderately in association with 93L. Radar imagery indicates a relatively well-developed lower-level circulation with decent inflow. Obviously upper-level conditions aren't necessarily conducive for rapid development of this feature; however, with an increase in convective activity, especially in the southwestern octant, we could see the development of the season's first [sub]tropical cyclone.



Hey Miami! Glad to see you aboard for another season, looking forward to it. This appears to a purely tropical system. The main factor here is going to be time, how much can it intensify before it makes landfall along the US coast? The NHC is going to be looking for consistency in convection, which will probably take a few more hours, but they'll probably be quicker to declare 93L because it's closer to the coast compared to 92L which was in the middle of nowhere (though, was probably a sub-tropical storm IMO)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Some of the models are predicting cat 1 status?.Not likely but it could be a strong tropical storm.Hopefully it brings rain to D.C.


Just ask the Capitol Weather Gang!
I think there's a pretty good chance 93L will get classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone if it maintains moderate convection over the center for another half-day, or through this evening. Notice the anticyclonic outflow to the north of the system, indicating warm-core transition, not to mention the convection over the center which gives it away entirely. The NHC seems to be getting in gear to give it what it is due by upping the development chances. The system is sitting directly over the Gulf Stream, and it isn't going inland until around Monday, so if it meanders over the warm water for a bit and doesn't get too close to the coast too fast, we could easily see Alberto. This illustrates exactly what can happen in these opportune pre-season moments that can occur with trough-splits.
Quoting Patrap:
Definitely a better organized System than 3 hours ago..and this looking up from the Radar site..


Looks like a minimal Tropical Storm to me
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Agreed. What do you think is most likely?


Well, we noticed it detach from the Front yesterday and it was in the perfect "Null" area to fester, and when a system has the Marginal SST's, a good cyclonic Sig at the surface, I gotta go with a TD in the formative stage, with potential of becoming a TS.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If named it will be tropical. What's up Miami?
It appears so, intense convective activity over the circulation usually constitutes towards a more rapid transition into tropical nature.

Doing great! How's it been going in the blog over the past few months?

Quoting Ameister12:
Hi MH09. How's it going?
Doing great, Ameister; how have you been doing?
Home brew looks to keep us on our toes early I'd say.

Kudo's to those who saw it last evening and stayed on it.
The gulf stream is really helping 93L. The convection might actually survive a decent amount of time unlike in 92L.





14z HRRR

80-knot gusts

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It appears so, intense convective activity over the circulation usually constitutes towards a more rapid transition into tropical nature.

Doing great! How's it been going in the blog over the past few months?

Doing great, Ameister; how have you been doing?

Oh, you know, the regular climate change debates. We've actually seen very little trolls.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It appears so, intense convective activity over the circulation usually constitutes towards a more rapid transition into tropical nature.

Doing great! How's it been going in the blog over the past few months?

Doing great, Ameister; how have you been doing?

I've been doing good. I'm very excited about hurricane season coming up soon.
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

I think the high pressure will build to the north and drive it WSW for a while. To around 32 N 80 W by this time tomorrow.
The gulf steam will be able to keep the flow of warm water pumping into the system
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hey Miami! Glad to see you aboard for another season, looking forward to it. This appears to a purely tropical system. The main factor here is going to be time, how much can it intensify before it makes landfall along the US coast? The NHC is going to be looking for consistency in convection, which will probably take a few more hours, but they'll probably be quicker to declare 93L because it's closer to the coast compared to 92L which was in the middle of nowhere (though, was probably a sub-tropical storm IMO)
What's up Teddy? Glad to be back for the season!

Convective persistence will be very important in the development of this system. We'll have to see how it reacts to the upcoming diurnal minimum since it is still a rather weak feature, and if it will be able to maintain convective activity (and fire some too) into the night hours. Classification by tonight seems very plausible, should convection persist, of course.
Hey all! So, 93L, huh? Don't usually pay much attention this early in the season, but sitting in the Charleston area, can't help but be a little curious about this one! Will be interesting to see what happens over the next 24h.



And now, let the screaming about Rapid Intensification begin!
not being able to access the atcf site information is very frustrating
Hi everyone, I put together a blog entry on 93L and did my best to simplify the complex process of 93L becoming a "warm-core" cyclone. I would especially recommend it for anyone who is getting confused by this process and terminology. I also talk about track and intensity forecasts.

For anyone interested: Link
What a pretty looking invest.
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
32.25N/77.47W
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, you know, the regular climate change debates. We've actually seen very little trolls.
No trolls is great to see, climate change debates not so much LOL. Good to see you're still around.

Quoting Ameister12:

I've been doing good. I'm very excited about hurricane season coming up soon.
Great to hear! Seems as if this upcoming season will be somewhat lackluster, but that's always great from the layman perspective. You know how the ol' saying goes, though: "it only takes one".
May 19, 2012

Daily SOI: -0.29
30 day SOI: 2.60
Link
NHC Director Knabb will have a Busy Day with his co-horts seems
I'm surprised HYPU!weather hasn't paid any attention to this.Instead their to busy blabbing about the eclipse.
Like Pat said tho, water near the coast is cool. If it turns out to be a hybrid system, it may have a chance to through some high winds and seas to the Carolina,s. Some areas had had a lot of rain, and flooding is possible in some areas.
Somebody has to say it.

Florida hit?!?! :)
Im sure that any Fla Strike must first have the Guv'na's team look it over before he makes a decision to allow the storm to Strike.

He is Skeletor ya know?
Quoting Patrap:
NHC Director Knabb will have a Busy Day with his co-horts seems
when?
Where are the NHC floaters?
Quoting weatherh98:
Somebody has to say it.

Florida hit?!?! :)

I was gonna say that! lol
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Where are the NHC floaters?


Here

AL932012 - INVEST
Quoting Patrap:


Here

AL932012 - INVEST


I was talking about here, but still thanks!

Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters
Nice to see a lot of people coming back! Seems we could have an early start to the Atlantic Season!

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

High pressure expected to build over the S.E.U.S in a week or so.
No Active Tropical Warnings
May-19-12, 1:00:01 PM | Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)
As of Sat, 19 May 2012 17:00:01 GMT
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, you know, the regular climate change debates. We've actually seen very little trolls.

Very little trolls are the Absolute worst kind....
Quoting hydrus:
High pressure expected to build over the S.E.U.S in a week or so.
What does that mean?


Well, the eye wasn't just a short lived temporary feature....
Quoting washingtonian115:
What does that mean?


In regards to what?
Also everytime I go to the atcf site, even the ones that have been linked in here the last few days, it shows last years information


Is there a site that has coordinates like the atcf that is more reliable?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting hydrus:
Like Pat said tho, water near the coast is cool. If it turns out to be a hybrid system, it may have a chance to through some high winds and seas to the Carolina,s. Some areas had had a lot of rain, and flooding is possible in some areas.


For the month, Wilmington has been about on target for their average rainfall-- looks like they picked up about an inch in the last few days. But according to this week's drought monitor, a little bit more may not be such a bad thing, especially since it's a small system-- granted that it's down in FL/GE/SC that really needs it. But, that southeast corner of coastal NC is technically in a light-moderate drought too.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well, the eye wasn't just a short lived temporary feature....

Most tropical cyclones have an eye deature on radar. This is just another example
Hello everybody!

Wow, the tropics are already heating up. This one's close to home. Man, am I sure glad that I'm not going to the beach for another 2 weeks!
It looks like the upper-level low to the NE of 93L is starting to scoot off to the NE:

Link
T-minus how-many-hours-93L-has-left-before-it-has-produced convection-for-12-hours until it is named Alberto.
"Isolated wet microbursts..."



Click image for text.
NEW BLOG IS UP
Ps. Great 93L posts, all of you. Thanks.
Quoting washingtonian115:
What does that mean?

It obviously means that High pressure expected to build over the S.E.U.S in a week or so. lol
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Hi everyone, I put together a blog entry on 93L and did my best to simplify the complex process of 93L becoming a "warm-core" cyclone. I would especially recommend it for anyone who is getting confused by this process and terminology. I also talk about track and intensity forecasts.

For anyone interested: Link


Excellent job on explaining the process. I have family on the coast of North Carolina, so I'm monitoring this system closely. Thanks for the blog update!
NEW BLOG The below moved from comment402 due to slow loading.

159 aspectre: Wish I could have found a map which also contained the IceShelf grounding-lines. As bappit pointed out, if there ain't a LOT of ice pressing downward on the land or seabed now, the edge areas are gonna sink as isostatic rebound completes itself.
eg Large areas of the ice-shelves on the WeddelSea/RossSea/etc are floating, not grounded
170BaltimoreBrian: From what I understand the continental shelf dips downwards as one approaches the 'coast' of Antarctica.
It seems like isostatic rebound would be so great that the ultimate sea level rise would be affected. Over tens of thousands of years after the Antarctic Ice Sheets melted away global sea level might rise another 50feet
[15metres] as Antarctica's isostatic rebound displaced the temporary seas above it.
And if Antarctica rose so much, what other places would then fall? I guess those second-order effects would primarily be in the seabed around the Antarctic continent.


The portion of the continental shelf tilting downward toward the presentday Antarctic landmass is southwest of a ridge beneath the WeddelSea nearest to the presentday Antarctic landmass.
The rest of the WeddelSea generally tilts downward toward the open ocean from that ridge and the presentday Antarctic landmass.

Gotta remember that only the seabed where the ice-shelves are HEAVILY grounded by overlaying ice will rise above the new/future sea-level. eg Using "spherical cow" calculation:
If the shelf is grounded on the seabed that's 100metres below presentday, then then there has to a minimum of 330metres of ice piled on top of the ice below presentday sea-level for that seabed to rise to presentday sea-level.
But, even excluding temperature-rise seawater-expansion, since by that time the sea-level will have also risen 66metres, the ice piled on top will have to be at least 396metres thick for the former seabed to rise to that new/future sea-level.
So it would take a presentday total-thickness of at*least 500metres (100below plus ~400above) of ice grounding on the presentday seabed to melt in order for isostatic rebound to push that seabed above the new/future sea-level.

* I also didn't include the buoyancy of ice submerged in seawater. At the thicknesses/densities we're talking about, not enough to greatly affect the total thickness... but having enough of an effect that 500metres is the lower-bound minimum.

As a very rough approximation... Near the coastline, the thickness of grounded Antarctic ice above sea-level tends to be thicker where the depth of the seabed is shallower. (The small WeddelSea area mentioned above is an exception.) Ice-melt inland won't add continental uplift-displacement to seawater. Combining both with bappit's edge-depression effect, I assumed only an extra 6metre(20foot)rise due to that continental isostatic uplift -- ie ~10% of the AntarcticMelt-rise alone -- excluding temperature-increase seawater-expansion.
ie I used an average 72metre sea-rise average (in the linked comment) rather than the standard 66metre sea-rise average to account for isostatic rebound (and some depression of the presentday seabed) in that far off future.

You may be closer to being correct.
Either way, combining the average sea-level rise due to melting with the temperature-increase seawater-expansion and the change in the gravitational equipotential should produce interesting topography.

The BarentsSea would join the BalticSea to separate Scandinavia from Europe.


The Gulf of Mexico through the MissippiRiverValley to the lower OhioRiverValley and LakeOntario through the the St.LawrenceRiver to the AtlanticOcean would cause the easternUS to become a peninsula of the continentalUnitedStates.

I think the OhioValley and southeastward remain far too high above sea-level for the new Mississippi/ReelfootBay to join the new OntarioSea.

The ArcticOcean's KaraSea would nearly cut Russia in half, leaving the (Kustanay to)TurgayPass as a landbridge separating the KaraSea and the AralSea. The AralSea would join a CaspianSea joined through the Kuma-ManychDepression with the BlackSea to the MediterraneanSea to the Atlantic...

...nearly separating Europe from Asia. The SuezCanal area would be flooded over, creating a completely natural separation between Africa and the MiddleEast.
soon we should expect

ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2012 NORTH ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS AHEAD OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON START DATE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 77.5W
ABOUT 146 MI... 235KM OF CHARLESTON,SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...64 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WARNING STATEMENT ABOVE IS NOT REAL
Dr. Rick Knabb, The Weather Channel's resident hurricane expert, has been named the new director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Dr. Knabb joined The Weather Channel in May 2010 and shared his expertise with TWC's audience through the 2010 and 2011 hurricane seasons.

Dr. Knabb, who was raised the Fort Lauderdale area, said he is excited about his new position and is aware of the importance of the role.

"I had enough time at the Hurricane Center to know what the job involves. That includes being available for television networks. Chances are, you'll still see me a lot on The Weather Channel still," Dr. Knabb said.

Play Video
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Bob Walker, executive vice president and general manger, networks and content of TWCC, congratulated Dr. Knabb on his new position.

"Rick’s expertise and skill in forecasting and his passion for communicating the science behind tropical weather made him a great addition to our expert team. While we hate to see Rick leave The Weather Channel, it’s just another example of the fact that some of the best people working in weather can be found at TWCC," Walker said.

Dr. Knabb said he will miss his Weather Channel colleagues. "They are real people with families doing a very difficult job. TV is hard, and I respect what they do everyday."

Weather has always been his passion.

"Like many meteorologists, I've been interested in the weather for as long as I can remember," Dr. Knabb said. "I never seriously considered any other profession. I remember as a child being afraid of lightning, tornadoes, and hurricanes, and decided I wanted to learn what makes those things tick."

His advice for his audience?

"Hurricanes are part of the reality of living in many parts of the U.S. If you live near the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic coast, don't ever think that it can't happen to you. Prepare today for what you'll do when a hurricane comes your way," Dr. Knabb said.

As a senior hurricane specialist at NHC from 2005-2008, he prepared and issued official forecasts and warnings during the 2005 hurricane season with Hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Perhaps most notably, Dr. Knabb signed the advisory announcing that Katrina had become a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico. He also served as NHC's science and operations officer from 2001-2005.

Before he joined The Weather Channel, Dr. Knabb was the deputy director and director of operations of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) and NWS Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii. While there, he led the development and implementation of the first-ever joint CPHC/FEMA hurricane preparedness course for emergency managers.

Throughout his career in NOAA, Dr. Knabb has been involved in emergency management, military and academia collaboration, technology incorporation, and public speaking and media interviews.

Dr. Knabb said his most memorable weather moment was on October 24, 2005 when Hurricane Wilma was crossing southern Florida.


weather.com
"I was the on-duty Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center, and I was watching the eyewall pass over my house where my wife and son were staying. I knew they were very safe in our well constructed home with hurricane shutters up, but it was still unnerving." Dr. Knabb adds, "Later that day I arrived home to just a downed fence and some fallen palm trees, and then hung out at my father's house with several members of our family during the power outage. We were all thankful our hurricane experience was nowhere near as painful as what others experienced that year."

Dr. Knabb is a member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and is part of the AMS Board of Government Meteorologists. He has published numerous works in scientific journals and as conference papers. He received his Ph.D in meteorology and his master's degree in meteorology from Florida State University and his bachelor's degree in atmospheric science from Purdue University.

He and his wife Rhonda of 22 years have a 7-year-old son, Parker. They will be joining him in Miami.

The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 to Nov. 30. The Eastern Pacific season is from May 15 to Nov. 30.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What will invest 93L get at the next Special Tropical Weather Outlook?

A) Low chance (<30%)
B) Medium chance (30-50%)
C) High chance (>50%)
D) Subtropical depression/storm designation

I say B.

I say C based on how it looks now.
Man this came out of nowhere. O_o
I need to start "blob tracking".