98L in Eastern Atlantic no Threat; Bay of Bengal Storm Could be Trouble for India
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a small area of heavy thunderstorms with a modest amount of spin. The UKMET and GFS models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the European model does not. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected track will take it into the Central Atlantic, where it is unlikely to threaten any land areas. However, a few members of the European model's ensembles of forecasts do show 98L potentially impacting the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week.
Off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, a non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop along a stalled cold front just offshore, bringing an extended period of strong on-shore winds that will bring high waves, tides 1 - 2 feet above normal, and beach erosion from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Virginia Beach, Virginia. The Surfchex live webcam site has some impressive views of the high surf today from various cameras along the coast.
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Danas has weakened to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, and is bringing sustained winds of 40 mph to the south coast of South Korea. The Western Pacific will stay very active this week, with the GFS and European models predicting that two new tropical storms will form east of the Philippines late in the week.
In the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, a strong tropical disturbance with plenty of spin has developed off the west coast of Thailand, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The North Indian Ocean is much easier to predict the formation of Tropical Cyclones for then the Atlantic, so these forecasts are very likely to come true. The storm expected to track to the west-northwest and make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday. Conditions are ripe for this storm to intensify to hurricane strength and drive a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of tropical disturbance 90W over the eastern Bay of Bengal in the North Indian Ocean, taken at approximately 08:30 UTC on October 8, 2013. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone that will affect Northeast India this weekend. Image credit: NASA.
Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
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