95L Remains Unorganized in the Gulf of Mexico
Invest 95L, located in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, is around 100 miles east of Tampico, Mexico Friday morning and is struggling to organize based on satellite imagery. Visible satellite shows the strongest thunderstorm activity has been displaced to the south of what would be the center of circulation. Only a few thunderstorms are associated with this disturbance currently, with the strongest of these on the southern and eastern edges.
Satellite image showing Invest 95L and a lack of thunderstorm development
The National Hurricane Center has decreased the likelihood of 95L developing over the next two days from 70% on Thursday to 30% heading into the weekend. Some models suggest this disturbance could track north toward the Texas coast, where it could strengthen. This northward jog would be guided by a cold front that is forecast to track across the U.S over the weekend. Regardless whether this disturbance develops, significant rain is expected from southern Texas through much of the Southeast as it will couple with the aforementioned cold front to draw considerable moisture northward. Upwards of 5 inches of rain (see image below) could fall along coastal areas from Texas through Mississippi even if the disturbance does not develop.
WPC forecast showing the QPF forecast for Friday through Monday. Note the significant rain expected through the Southeast due to the combination of the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and a cold front moving through the eastern U.S.
Model tracks showing some possible paths of Invest 95L
Super Typhoon Usagi
Usagi maintained Super Typhoon strength on its path just south Taiwan and north of Philippines. With a wind strength of 150 mph, Usagi is taking a reasonably good path as the official forecast takes the typhoon into the South China Sea and weakens it into a Category 2 storm before eventual landfall near Shenzen on Sunday. This will still be a strong storm with the capability of doing considerable damage and significant flooding.
Tracking map of Super Typhoon Usagi.
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather