Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, after making landfall in extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31. Krosa's interaction with Luzon has weakened the storm, with the eye no longer visible, and the thunderstorms of the eyewall now warmer. The typhoon will likely be at Category 1 strength as it brushes China's Hainan Island on Sunday.
JeffMasters, • 2:55 PM GMT on October 31, 2013
1) Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. 2) NHC's procedures for issuing warnings need improvement. 3) The European ECMWF weather forecast model is better than the U.S. GFS model. 4) Arctic sea ice loss due to global warming may have made Sandy's unusual track more likely. 5) There may be more storms like Sandy in the future.
JeffMasters, • 2:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2013
A mighty Atlantic gale, called the 2013 St. Jude's Day storm by the UK Met Office, and "Christian" by the Free University of Berlin, is battering Western Europe with hurricane-strength wind gusts, waves up to 25 feet high, and driving rains. As of 2 am local time, the peak wind gust from the storm in the UK was 92 mph, at the Isle of Wight in the English Channel. Powerful winds have also swept the north coast of France; winds in Brest, France hit 41 mph, gusting to 67 mph at 2 am local time Monday.
JeffMasters, • 2:57 AM GMT on October 28, 2013
September 2013 was the globe's 4th warmest September since records began in 1880. The year-to-date period of January - September has been the 6th warmest such period on record. September 2013 global land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 4th warmest on record. The 5 billion-dollar weather-related disasters in September brought the tally of these expensive disasters for the year to 32, which is the 3rd highest total since 2000.
JeffMasters, • 2:26 PM GMT on October 25, 2013
Sydney, Australia and the Blue Mountains have endured a second day of dangerous fire weather conditions without a devastating fire catastrophe ensuing. The high temperature in Sydney on Thursday hit 73°F, with sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 41 mph, and a humidity as low as 7%. The temperature was nearly 20°F cooler than on Wednesday, but the strong winds and low humidity helped fan the 56 fires still burning across the state of New South Wales.
JeffMasters, • 3:23 PM GMT on October 24, 2013
Sydney, Australia and the Blue Mountains to its west endured extreme fire weather conditions on Wednesday without catastrophe, as "aggressive" and "high-risk" fire fighting strategies kept the 71 fires burning in New South Wales from causing major devastation. "The broader risk to a much larger, more widespread population has certainly eased," said Shane Fitzsimmons, a fire official for the region.
JeffMasters, • 2:26 PM GMT on October 23, 2013
Sydney, Australia and the Blue Mountains to its west are bracing for weather conditions that will bring extreme fire danger, with temperatures on Wednesday that are expected to be in the upper 80s, humidities less than 10%, and sustained winds of 15 -25 mph, gusting to 40 mph. These conditions will be "about as bad as it gets", said Shane Fitzsimmons, a fire official for the region.
JeffMasters, • 3:21 PM GMT on October 22, 2013
Hurricane Raymond roared into life on Sunday just offshore from Acapulco, Mexico, rapidly intensifying from a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a major Category 3 hurricane in just 24 hours. Raymond is the first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2013, making it the first year since 1968 that both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic had made it into October without a major hurricane. Raymond has brought more than 3" of rain so far to Acapulco, where a Hurricane Watch is posted.
JeffMasters, • 1:22 PM GMT on October 21, 2013
Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to a Category 2 or lesser strength is likely.
JeffMasters, • 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013
How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that.
JeffMasters, • 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013
Category 2 Typhoon Francisco is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely.
JeffMasters, • 2:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2013
Typhoon Wipha roared past Japan on Tuesday as a Category 1 typhoon, bringing destructive winds and high rains that triggered flooding being blamed for at least 17 deaths. Most of the deaths occurred on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles south of Tokyo. An astonishing 33.44" (824 mm) fell in just 23 hours on the island, triggering flash floods and mudslides that killed 16 people and left 50 missing.
JeffMasters, • 2:59 PM GMT on October 16, 2013
Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph. Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004. Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm--the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. A 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots.
JeffMasters, • 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013
Tropical Cyclone Phailin has left behind a shattered coast in northeast India's Odisha region, but a remarkably low death toll, after making landfall on Saturday near the town of Gopalpur. According to media reports, the death toll from the cyclone is the 22 - 36 range, which is extremely low, considering this is a region where 10,000 died in a similar-strength cyclone in 1999.
JeffMasters, • 2:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2013
Tropical Cyclone Phailin has weakened to a tropical storm over northern India after making landfall on the northeast coast of India near the town of Gopalpur (population 7,000) at 15:45 UTC (11:45 am EDT) on Saturday, October 12, 2013. According to media reports from the BBC, the cyclone brought a storm surge in excess of 3 meters (10 feet) to portions of the coast, and at least fourteen people had been killed by the storm.
JeffMasters, • 4:56 PM GMT on October 13, 2013
Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has made landfall on the northeast coast of India near the town of Gopalpur (population 7,000) at 16 UTC (noon EDT) Saturday, October 12, 2013. Phailin was weakening substantially at landfall, due to interaction with land, and was rated a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds four hours before landfall. The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall.
JeffMasters, • 5:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2013
Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has maintained Category 5 strength for six hours, and is expected to remain a Category 5 storm until it is just a few hours from landfall on the northeast coast of India on the Bay of Bengal. Phailin is now at peak strength of 160 mph, tying it with Super Typhoon Usagi as Earth's strongest tropical cyclone of 2013.
JeffMasters, • 9:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin is closing in on the northeast coast of India on the Bay of Bengal. Phailin put on a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Thursday, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds in just 24 hours. After reaching peak intensity near 8 pm EDT Thursday, Phailin began an eyewall replacement cycle, and satellite estimates of Phailin's central pressure increased from 910 mb to 934 mb during the eyewall replacement cycle.
JeffMasters, • 2:01 PM GMT on October 11, 2013
Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin, in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, has put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a formidable Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds in just twelve hours. Satellite estimates of Phailin's strength at 8 am EDT ranged as high as 135 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin, whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai, continues to intensify.
JeffMasters, • 3:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
Tropical Storm 02B has formed off the west coast of Thailand, and is moving west-northwest towards India at 8 mph. Tropical Storm 02B is a medium-sized storm that is increasing in organization and intensity. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2, a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Cyclone 02B should be able to intensify into at least a Category 1 storm before landfall occurs near 12 UTC on Saturday.
JeffMasters, • 3:09 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. The UKMET and GFS models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected track will take it into the Central Atlantic, where it is unlikely to threaten any land areas.
JeffMasters, • 2:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms and spin. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the GFS and European models do not. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 20%, and 5-day odds of 30%.
JeffMasters, • 2:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2013
Tropical Storm Karen degenerated into a post-tropical low pressure system this morning, done in by dry air and high wind shear. Karen's demise brings the seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic up to 27, which is about 31% of average for this time of the year. Climatologically, the season should be about 85% over, and I expect we will see just one or two more named storms before the quiet Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 peters out.
JeffMasters, • 3:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2013
Tropical Storm Karen has weakened to a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds as it heads towards landfall in Southeast Louisiana. Karen continues to struggle with high wind shear of 25 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds have driven dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core, making it difficult for heavy thunderstorms to build on the west and south sides of Karen's center of circulation.
JeffMasters, • 3:57 PM GMT on October 05, 2013
Tropical Storm Karen has slowed down a bit to 9 mph but is still heading north-northwest towards Louisiana. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was in the storm Friday afternoon, and found top surface winds near 50 - 55 mph and a central pressure of 1004 mb. This pressure is 1 mb higher than what the Hurricane Hunters found on Friday morning. NOAA buoy 42001 reported a sustained wind of 44 mph, gusting to 51 mph, at 11:50 am EDT.
JeffMasters, • 8:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
The same low pressure system that is expected to turn Tropical Storm Karen to the northeast this weekend is hammering the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard warnings are flying in Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota from the storm, and a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes is expected over much of Iowa this afternoon. A dangerous Santa Ana wind event is also brewing over Southern California, bringing the most dangerous fire conditions in 5 years.
JeffMasters, • 1:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Tropical Storm Karen is having trouble with dry air and high wind shear as the storm heads north-northwest at 12 mph into the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane is in the storm, and found top surface winds near 65 mph at 4 pm EDT Thursday, and a central pressure 5 mb lower than this morning's. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm whose heavy thunderstorms have declined in intensity and areal coverage since this morning.
JeffMasters, • 8:25 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. It's not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but that's what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm.
JeffMasters, • 2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent.
JeffMasters, • 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean moving to the northwest at 10 mph is generating heavy rains over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Kingston, Jamaica picked up 2.60" of rain on Monday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased in intensity and organization Tuesday morning. The broad area of spin associated with 97L is growing more defined, and the storm is taking advantage of wind shear that has fallen to the low range.
JeffMasters, • 2:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2013