I got an interest from weather sitting in the living room watching the weather channel with my Grandpa, I've been hooked to tracking storms ever since
By: HurricaneDean07 , 3:31 AM GMT on February 07, 2013
2013 Hurricane Season Outlook
Hey Everyone! Its been awhile since ive been on the blog, making entries and such, Just wanted to post up a quick blog about the 2013 season in my eyes.
The 2013 season appears to be primed and set to be another above average season as the El Nino event that was forecasted to persist through Spring has withered away and has been replaced by a cold neutral. The season is Still uncertain on Track, but some good ideas toward what might happen are in the paragraph below.
With a cold neutral, or La Nina likely to be in place through most of the 2013 season, it is to be noted that this will inturn, encourage a decrease in Eastern Pacific Equatorial convective blowups, that tend to cause Shear in the Western portion of the Atlantic Basin. This will allow an additional 3-4 storms to form more than likely, as well as the cooler water causing higher pressures than average to build over the Eastern pacific basin which will tend to prevent storm formation in this region, and push more of the tropical energy into the Atlantic.
The SST's are already hinting at a similar set up to 2004/2005/2010 (All Hyperactive and/or Destructive seasons) because the Surface Temps are In a Positive Atlantic Tripole, which is when the Main Development Region's SST's are above average, and the Subtropics SST's are below average which cause rising air, and more High pressure. This would inturn cause the focus of energy to stay in the Tropics.
A more active Cape Verde season through Peak portions of the season, these storms will tend to be weaker due to dryer air, but will allow them to make their way west into regions where the storms only option is to make landfall, storms will also likely become stronger during that time due to above average temperatures over the Main Development Region. The climatological pattern (Neutral-La Nina) Means that there will likely be a lack of a strong monsoon occuring in the West CONUS which will only encourage High Pressure to build there, this means that Texas will likely be protected this year if this pattern were to come to fruition. This pattern described would put the Central-Eastern Gulf Coast and Southeastern Coast at risk because the weakness would be forced to set up around this area, and would cause a "Capping" High Pressure system to set up over the Northeastern part of North America, which would only give the storms two options... If they form far enough east, it would result in an easy way out to sea, but most that form closer will head for Central America under the influence of the High Pressure system set-up over the Southwest, or they would be drawn north from the Caribbean to visit people in the Central-East Gulf Coast.
Pre-season Numbers (Prior to April Issue of CSU's)
15-18 Named Storms
3-6 Major Hurricanes
I will have another update in April when CSU makes their predictions...
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.