Hey all! I live in New England and I love tropical cyclones.
By: Gorty , 3:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
Well I know most of the attention is on Irene and rightly so, but a lot of people are already covering her so I will venture out to 98L. The NHC is putting it at a 10% chance of developing and by looking at the recent satellite imagery, I can see that being correct. You could clearly see a spin to it early on in the loop, but it has since lost that. It seems it has been moisturizing the atmosphere for the next wave that will be entering the ATL in the coming days.
With the SAL becoming less, the CV season could become quite active starting this week (more later in this post) and low pressures should be able to intensify more east instead of needing to get as far west as the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean.
My Forecast for invest 98L
While the SAL may be less, it will have to fight moderate shear and waters that are slightly cool. However, on recent satellite imagery, you can clearly see more thunderstorms starting to pop.
The GFS at 168 hours shows at least a weak tropical storm; All three, the GFS, NOGAPS and CMC shows very little development out to 144 hours at least, but we all know that can can change run after run so stay tuned.
Given all of this, I will say 98L could develop but won't be till later on this week, late this week into the the weekend, I am agreeing with the GFS, NOGAPS and CMC for the very slow development . The current ICON, IVAN and ships model runs I currently do not agree with, they simply have it intensifying way too fast for something that does not have an organised area of low pressure. Could this be a September storm? That is a possibility but we will know more in the coming days with how it looks on satellite. Right now, Bermuda could be threatened, but it is way too far out to know for sure, so stay tuned to the NHC, and also currently it may miss the east coast of the US.
The next threat
I am concerned that our next threat could become a strong system. It is currently over Africa and should be in the ATL in a day or two. Right now, it does not have much model support but given the atmospheric set up of weaker shear and not as dry air thanks to 98L and that the euro is hinting at something in 72 hours, I can see this thing develop.
It is more south than 98L, which will also help it escape the dry air and be in an area of weaker shear and that poses more of a threat to the US and the Caribbean again than 98L. When it enters the ATL in the coming days, we will see how it will play out.
I will continue to monitor 98L.
Note: If we do not get Jose from 98L then we may see it from the next wave. August may be done for adding to named to storms, it all depends if 98L wants to develop faster than currently forecast to get another named storm in Aug. or not.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.