My name is George Abagis, about to start school online but I have a huge compilation of research and thoughts I would like to share.
By: George1938 , 2:46 AM GMT on August 20, 2014
This was something that actually took me a while to register through my thick skull but when it did well naturally I raced over here to blog about it because well.....what else was there to do?
Okay what started this thought was a mix between knowing that there will likely be high-pressure over the North Atlantic somewhere from New England to Atlantic Canada to Bermuda and points in-between. Then once the 8pm update of the GFS ensemble members came out on (my personal favorite site wunderground) it didn't sink in right away at what I saw, at first just a 50/50(mostly) split in the members from going more into the Gulf to more of a potential East Coast issue Then i saw the member outlined at the end in red and thought about it and froze on my evening walk and literally bolted back here to blab about it (so cool). But that high, if in the right spot and the low does go more up the coast or off the coast look at what that high does to the storm, turns it back (or so it seems)
Now to look at other models to get a general idea of where they will place this high (this is more about the positioning of the high and not the low)
Yes we are going to have some fun and start with everyone's 'favorite' The Canadian Model (I like to say where the Canadian puts the storm we know it isn't going there) But non the less it does have the high to the east of New England which could possibly support at least and east coast strike, if it lifts a bit more northeast by the time the system were to be to the south, well it comes back.
To a different opinion on everything we move on to the Euro, this is to be expected that they disagree, for the most part they don't speak the same language ----hahaha----- But the Euro does not support much of anything and though it is a very top...TOP notch model it does often do poorly with transitioning storms into Tropical Cyclones, Personally I favor development, I'm going to pull a price is right move and say 51% chance in 5 days.
As we continue the scenic seven hour tour of various models we go to the navgem, which personally I have noticed this one isn't the best all the time but not as bad as the Canadian so we shall cut it some slack. This one also supports the high in that possible danger zone of blockage.
The final stop before we ship wreck (i really don't know how this tuned into a spin off of Gilligan's Island but it did...) is of course the GFS :D this though the high, like the other models, we are talking seven days out and that's still a massive error potential, has that high in a position off the coast but not far just slight movements and the angle of the storms motions it completely thrown off. Like two planes that leave LA one is going towards Miami the other Boston. at first the difference is slight but then as time goes on, two completely different regions of the country, same with 96L (but what flight did he get on?)
Bottom line is it will be watched and we will see what happens. One thing is for sure everyone will be able to say exactly when and where and even exactly how strong it will be.....the day after it happens.
Thanks for reading,
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.