My name is George Abagis, about to start school online but I have a huge compilation of research and thoughts I would like to share.
By: George1938 , 4:16 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
I will warn in advance for I could not help myself but go overboard, but with the weather, you really can't not. Am I right or am I right? It will start with the Update on Invest 96L then go into Cyclone Groups over the years (just some). Then a brief nerd powered rant on decade northward tendency for cyclones, which means over a period of 8 or 12yrs there are suddenly a lot of storms off the northeast or on it then not so much. The worst part is, If this does become a major threat it will get to the point where I won't sleep, likely forget to eat or drink anything.......cough...Irene Sandy
INVEST 96L SLATED TO GO CYCLONE...UPDATE THREE...20AUGUST2014...11PM
The organization of Invest 96L has improved pretty nicely over the past 18hrs and I now will confidently say it will become our next Tropical Cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season, just a side note any low is technically a cyclone and a high is an anticyclone. And i have included a potential surface map for Monday to show the key players in this. Which are the Tropical Cyclone (how fast is it moving and where exactly is it?)(The high, how strong is it and naturally where is it?) Then actually that low way to the west the 12z Euro combined these near Atlantic Canada.
Okay now we have to look at some models, tonight we are starting with the 18zGFS it gives us that nice high-pressure zone to block the storm at least in towards the coast.
The 12zECMWF gives us that high but then splits it at the last second after a re-curve more to the north after heading out into the ocean, allowing the storm to combine with that other low over Atlantic Canada which for them, well that's not the best, similar to what happened with Igor in 2010 which was actually one of Canada's worst hurricanes, ESPECIALLY, I actually remember this, the track was for it to go a good deal east of Newfoundland but it didn't, it got energized and they had a combo of 80mph winds and horrific flash flooding.
The Canadian is looking less messed up, someone likes to party to much. It favors the same high split that the Euro does, but remember, the location of the highs 'if' after a possible split would be key into where the system went.
Pretending I'm in the Navy we have the 12zNAVGEM which has a nice block for the east coast.
18zGFDL time which suddenly decides to have absolutely no wind with the system but does put the high in a good spot.
Then the HWRF gives us a likely to strong for the location storm, but the high yet again is in a good spot.
What i mean when i say Tropical Cyclone Grouping over years is this, this is the 2012 season and there we have this horrible blob of stuff just shoved in one area. Look at 2014 so far. Arthur, East Coast, Bertha off the east coast but close enough to fit in the grouping zone. Then here comes what will be Cristobal in the same zone.
2011, same thing just a different location. I mean they really are just shoved together.
Now for a few dangerous examples of why this ends extremely badly when this happens near or over land. Just look at 2004 for our first perfect example.
The 1996 almost repeat of 1954, Edouard -_- so close
Then the dreaded 1954 season which just decimated the east coast.
Then I really don't know what this is but it fits with the theme of grouping but for some reason I felt like picking at Key Largo, happens to the best of the Florida Keys at one time or another.
Now for the tendency for an 8-12yr period to see a lot of strong systems off or on the northeast coast. This can also be seen other places, such as Florida during the 1920s just terrible. But if you look at 1991-1999 we have this. One Bob hit in 1991 and we had the no named hurricane which turned into the Perfect Storm. Then Bertha Climbs up in 1996 and 1999 Floyd attempted to relive the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane but had to much sympathy for people who forgot that large scale systems can hit in the north as seen with Sandy though 1938 was essentially a category three sized version of Sandy. Look to 50s to 1960. We have Carol, Edna, Hazel, and Donna all horrible east coast and northeast storms. Look at starting in 2009 with Hurricane Bill, did nothing to us but came up off the coast, then Earl in 2010 came a heck of a lot closer, then slam Irene 2011 then Slam Sandy 2012. 2013 nothing. 2014 we have Arthur pass over 40N70W. I'm just going to end it here. I think this should be a separate topic for another day complete with customized maps.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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